INDIA’S AGRICULTURAL GROWTH: A REGIONAL PERSPECTIVE

IGIDR CONFERENCE ON INDIA’S POLITICAL ECONOMY, , NOVEMBER 20-21, 2014

P.S. VIJAY SHANKARSAMAJ PRAGATI SAHAYOGBAGLI, DEWAS DISTRICT

MADHYA PRADESH

• Size and Diversity of the Country – Socio-Cultural

• Regions go down in history – Pre-Colonial Regions and Transition during Colonial Period

• Efforts at Homogenisation after Independence

• Yet, Regional Differences Remain and often Re-surface

• Difference Leads to Inequality - A Stylised Fact of Development

• Have Inequalities Widened? Important for Analysis and Policy

WHY REGIONS

• Initial Benchmark – Daniel Thorner’s Atlas, 1930

• Data on Cropped Area, Value of Production and Productivity – GS Bhalla & G Singh, 2012

• Limitations of this Database – Crops – only 35 crops– States – North East not Covered– Activities – Livestock not Included– Price – Constant Price; hence relative price movements not captured

• However, Useful for Overtime Comparisons

COMPARING AGRARIAN REGIONS

• 52 Agrarian Regions compared at 3 Time points (1962-65, 1980-83, 2005-08)

• High Productivity Regions (7 out of 10 are Repeated)– Punjab - 2 Regions; Tamil Nadu – 2 Regions; Kerala – 2 Regions; AP Coastal; Karnataka Coastal

• Low Productivity Regions (Again, 7 out of 10 are Repeated)– Rajasthan – 2 Regions; MP – 3 Regions; Maharashtra – 2 Regions

• Other Regions Come and Go

HIGH AND LOW PRODUCTIVITY REGIONS

• Very Little Change at the Top and Bottom 20% Level

• But a Third Group of Regions: Low Productivity but High Growth (especially in recent years)– Rajasthan – North and North East – Gujarat – Saurashtra, Dry Areas (Kutch and Banaskantha)

– Andhra Pradesh – Telangana– Madhya Pradesh – Malwa Region (Western MP)– Tamil Nadu – Dry Inland Region (Salem, Coimbatore)

• What could have contributed to their higher growth in productivity and value of production?

DYNAMIC ELEMENTS IN PRODUCTIVITY RANKING

1. TELANGANA• Expansion in Irrigation – groundwater irrigation (as compared to AP Coastal Regions)

• Shift in Cropping Pattern – Away from Millets and Pulses towards Paddy, Cotton and other high value crops

• Expanding Market Linkages from the above shift

• OBC Consolidation • “Immiserising Growth” and Farmer Suicides

ANDHRA PRADESH

2. SAURASHTRA• Extensive Water Conservation - Sardar Patel Sahbhagi Jal Sanchay Yojana; stop-dams in every village

• Power Sector Reform – Jyotirgram Yojana and Feeder Separation

• Shift in Cropping Pattern – Bt Cotton and boom in Cotton Production (Bt and Yield Relation Questionable)

• State Promotion of Cotton, Chillis, Cumin etc.

• Consolidation of Agricultural Castes – Patels and Patidars

• Consequences of Growth – Has Overall Growth Improved?

GUJARAT

3. NORTH AND NORTH EAST • Canal Irrigation in the North (IGNP – “Greening the Desert” – Ganganagar and Hanumanthgarh)

• Intensive Groundwater Irrigation in the North East

• Groundwater Balance Severely Threatened

• The Stage of Groundwater Development (ratio of annual groundwater extraction to annual replenishment) fell alarmingly from 59% in 1995 to 135% in 2009

• Most Blocks are Overexploited

RAJASTHAN

RAJASTHAN

4. MALWA (WEST MP) • Groundwater Irrigation supported by Public Investment in Rural Electrification

• Cropping Pattern Shift – Soybean and Wheat Cycle; Elimination of Millets and Cotton

• State Support to Market Development and Reforms

• Public Procurement of Wheat and Other Crops

• Consolidation of “Middle Peasantry” (Patidars, Saindhavs and Gujjars along with Rajputs)

MADHYA PRADESH

• Largely Concentrated in a few states• “Being Tribal” would Explain 50% of these regions (e.g., MP Mahakoshal; Jharkhand; Odisha South; Assam and the North East)– Specifics of Tribal Demography– Interlocked Markets – the Big Farmer- Trader-Moneylenders

– Resource Emasculation – Land, Forest, Minerals

– “Extractive Institutions” – leading to Development by Dispossession and Ecological Refugees of Development

– Resistance to Oppression – Tribal Areas in Ferment

WHAT ABOUT THOSE WHO LAGGED BEHIND?

• But “Being Tribal” Explains only 50% of these regions; What about the Rest?

• UP – South, Bundelkhand Region in General – Harsh Landscape, Political Marginalisation of SC?

• North Bihar – topographical constraints, repeated floods and disruption of community structures

• Maharashtra – Vidarbha – the “Dominant Caste Hypothesis” (Vidarbha vs Rest of Maharashra)

• But more detailed research is needed

WHAT ABOUT THOSE WHO LAGGED BEHIND?

• What are the Common Features of the Dynamic Elements? – Expansion of Groundwater Irrigation– Extensive State Support to Agriculture– Coalitions of Agricultural Castes and Consolidation of the “Middle Peasantry”

• By the same token, those left behind failed to achieve such strong mobilisation and forge strong political coalitions; splintering of caste/tribal groups

CONCLUDING

THANK YOU