Information Overload and Virtual Public Discourse Boundaries Quentin Jones, Gilad Ravid & Sheizaf Rafaeli Graduate School of Business University of Haifa, Mount Carmel, Haifa 31905, Israel [email protected]Abstract: ‘Virtual publics’ are a type of computer mediated discourse space created by using various technologies including email, the USENET, web based bulletin boards, IRC, MUDS, etc. (Jones and Rafaeli 1999). This paper outlines on-going field research into the impact of information overload on virtual public “mass interaction”. It describes initial findings based on an examination of 2.65 million USENET messages, which suggest that a number of user ‘information overload’ coping strategies appear to impact on the overall shape of group-discourse. The research in progress outlined addresses issues associated with group level usability of computer mediated communication technologies. Keywords: Virtual Communities, Virtual Publics, Computer Mediated Communication, Information Overload. 1 Introduction The importance of virtual communities is widely accepted (Jones and Rafaeli 2000b). However, no single dominant definition of the term exists (Jones 1997). In fact, a number of authors dispute their existence (Jones and Rafaeli 2000b). Consequently, despite the significance of the phenomena commonly labeled virtual community, the term is problematic. This is because the term as currently understood does not clearly distinguish between online places; computer mediated interactions; and community arising from or related to such interactions (Jones 1997; Jones and Rafaeli 2000b). Once these terms are distinguished, then in part, the question of whether a virtual space is associated with a virtual community becomes an empirical question (Liu 1999). To avoid this potential confusion the term virtual public has been proposed. Virtual publics are symbolically delineated computer mediated spaces, whose existence is relatively transparent and open, that allow groups of individuals to attend and contribute to a similar set of computer-mediated interpersonal interactions. The value of any virtual public will relate to the size of its user population, and both the quality and quantity of user contributions. Unfortunately, virtual public expansion is not simply a matter of increasing user population. This is because the relationship between user population and discourse contributions is influenced by a variety of factors including, critical mass, social loafing and information overload (Jones and Rafaeli 1999). While these points can be deduced from existing empirical and theoretical works, little data has been presented that concretely describes how these phenomena are related to various technologies. This research addresses this issue. 2 Modeling the Connection Between Communication Technology and Discourse The degree to which information technologies can effectively control or aid computer mediated communication (CMC) is limited by the finite capacity of human cognition. It follows that the inability of users to process effectively certain message patterns will result in limitations to the
Transcript
Information Overload and Virtual Public Discourse Boundaries
Quentin Jones, Gilad Ravid & Sheizaf Rafaeli Graduate School of Business University of Haifa,
Abstract: ‘Virtual publics’ are a type of computer mediated discourse space created by using various technologies including email, the USENET, web based bulletin boards, IRC, MUDS, etc. (Jones and Rafaeli 1999). This paper outlines on-going field research into the impact of information overload on virtual public “mass interaction”. It describes initial findings based on an examination of 2.65 million USENET messages, which suggest that a number of user ‘information overload’ coping strategies appear to impact on the overall shape of group-discourse. The research in progress outlined addresses issues associated with group level usability of computer mediated communication technologies. Keywords: Virtual Communities, Virtual Publics, Computer Mediated Communication, Information Overload. 1 Introduction The importance of virtual communities is widely accepted (Jones and Rafaeli 2000b). However, no single dominant definition of the term exists (Jones 1997). In fact, a number of authors dispute their existence (Jones and Rafaeli 2000b). Consequently, despite the significance of the phenomena commonly labeled virtual community, the term is problematic. This is because the term as currently understood does not clearly distinguish between online places; computer mediated interactions; and community arising from or related to such interactions (Jones 1997; Jones and Rafaeli 2000b). Once these terms are distinguished, then in part, the question of whether a virtual space is associated with a virtual community becomes an empirical question (Liu 1999). To avoid this potential confusion the term virtual public has been proposed. Virtual publics are symbolically delineated computer mediated spaces, whose existence is relatively transparent and open, that allow groups of
individuals to attend and contribute to a similar set of computer-mediated interpersonal interactions.
The value of any virtual public will relate to the size of its user population, and both the quality and quantity of user contributions. Unfortunately, virtual public expansion is not simply a matter of increasing user population. This is because the relationship between user population and discourse contributions is influenced by a variety of factors including, critical mass, social loafing and information overload (Jones and Rafaeli 1999). While these points can be deduced from existing empirical and theoretical works, little data has been presented that concretely describes how these phenomena are related to various technologies. This research addresses this issue.
2 Modeling the Connection Between Communication Technology and Discourse
The degree to which information technologies can effectively control or aid computer mediated communication (CMC) is limited by the finite
capacity of human cognition. It follows that the inability of users to process effectively certain message patterns will result in limitations to the
possible forms of sustainable group-CMC. That is, beyond a particular communication-processing load, the behavioral stress zones encountered will make particular forms of group communication unsustainable. Communication load is the processing effort required to deal with a set of communications.
A
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Figure 1: Cognitive Load and Group-CMC
Figure 1 illustrates how individual cognitive processing limits are linked to group communication. Three cognitive processing loads for group-CMC, A, B and C are displayed. At different cognitive loads, different individuals are willing or able to process group messages. The cognitive processing abilities of groups are not simply the sum of its individual’s cognitive processing capacities. Consequently, certain patterns of interactive group-CMC cannot be sustained if the required processing effort (communication load) is higher than the maximum amount individuals can or are prepared to invest. In cases of “mass interaction” (Whittaker, Terveen, et al. 1998), such as Usenet discourse, in theory it should be possible to observe empirically the combined effects of the average maximum communication load individuals are prepared to process (AvMaxCL). In other words, mass interaction provides a unique opportunity to explore the impact of communication load on group discourse. This is because the large numbers involved allow broad statistical processes to be observed that may otherwise be hidden by differences between individuals and the social contexts of communication.
We know that communication-processing load relates to a number of message-system characteristics. Users generally have to make more of an effort to reply coherently to a thread (Lewis and Knowles 1997) than to a single message. Therefore, higher interactivity correlates with higher communication-processing load. Interactive communication refers here to the extent to which
messages in a sequence relate to each other, and especially the extent to which later messages recount the relatedness of earlier messages (Rafaeli and Sudweeks 1997). Similarly, a high frequency of postings will require more processing by group members. Therefore, message frequency will also covary with communication-processing load. It is also likely that a decrease in ‘interactional coherence’, not compensated for by a useable persistent record, will increase communication-processing load (Herring 1999). For example, disrupted turn adjacency may require increased user effort to track sequential exchanges. Disrupted turn adjacency is caused by the fact that CMC-systems, such as email lists, transmit messages in the order they are received. Thus in group-CMC a message may be separated from the previous message it is responding to by another message, or lags in message transmission may even result in reversed sequencing.
Different CMC-technologies have different typical message system characteristics. Therefore, the point at which a user population’s interactions will typically result in information overload will relate to the CMC-tool used.
The above discussion suggests that the potential number of users involved in ‘a sustained pattern of interactive group discourse’ via a single virtual public will be constrained by cognitive processing limits. Further, that such limits will produce communication stress zones, or boundaries, related to: message posting frequency; average depth of threads; the quantity of discourse material; disrupted turn adjacency; and how the technology in question structures communication. These communication boundaries are not rigid, deterministic, instantaneous halt lines. Rather, they are zones, with an uncertain range of likelihood within which the behavioral limitations become severe. The research described here aims to identify such cognitive processing limits induced boundaries as they relate to Usenet discourse.
3 Cognitive Processing Limits Model and Usenet Discourse
The study aims to identify the stress zones produced by cognitive processing limits for USENET newsgroups by the analysis of data collected from large-scale field research.
From the introduction above, it can be concluded that a Usenet newsgroup’s communication load will roughly be an unknown function of: Probable Major Contributors
1. Number of Posters 2. Number of Posts 3. Number of Threads 4. Message Response Times 5. Depth of Threads 6. Length of Messages 7. Discourse Type 8. Probable Moderate to Minor Contributors 9. Extent of Interactional Incoherence 10. Percent of posts / posters that are Broadcast 11. Percent of posts / posters that are Reactive 12. Percent of posts / posters that are
Interactive The model derived from Communication Load
function (CLf) leads to testable predictions about how these items interrelate. Its logic is as follows: - as the number of interactive posters should logically positively correlate with: 1) the number of interactive messages and 2) the response times to postings; the only major contributors to the CLf that can vary freely are thread depth, interactive message length, and the number of threads. Therefore, the CLf predicts that at AvMaxCL an increase in the number of interactive posters will typically be associated with one of a number of compensatory strategies or effects that operate on these variables. These strategies include: o Making an increased effort (short term solution
only, not examined in this study). o Learning new information management
techniques to reduce information overload. This is mostly relevant for inexperienced users of a particular technology. For example, Hiltz and Turoff (1985) found that feelings of overload would peek at intermediate levels of CMC use when communication volume has built up but users have not had time to develop screening skills, Herring (1999) found similar effects in relation to IRC (short term solution, not examined in this study).
o Failing to respond to certain messages, thereby lowering the growth in communication load. The result being a change in the relationship between user-population and contributions.
o Producing simpler responses, although to maintain effective communication such an approach will be asymptotic. This will result in a change in the form group communication takes
o Storing inputs and responding to them as time permits. Again changing the group communication pattern (not examined here).
o Make more erroneous responses (not examined in this study).
o Ending/reducing active participation in the group communication (Finholt and Sproull 1990).
All of these strategies have a potentially observable effect on mass interaction although changes in users’ expertise and effort are likely to produce only short-term effects. This study examines three of these strategies: 1) failing to respond to certain messages; 2) producing simpler responses; and 3) ending or reducing active participation. The AvMaxCL model makes predictions about the impact of these strategies on mass interaction, which is that their adoption would generally involve a reduction in one or more of the following variables: average thread depth; the length or complexity of messages (e.g. the number of lines or words); number of simultaneous threads; and user population turn-over. Figure 2 below is used to explain this point.
Virtual Public Technology
and Message Processing Capacity
Interactive Users-Population
Virtual Public Technologies
Hypothetical Plots of Usenet Discourse
Hypothetical Plots of Asynchronous CMC-Tool Discourse
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Figure 2: Hypothetical Model of Overload and Group-CMC
Figure 2 (based on theoretical model presented at
HICSS; Jones and Rafaeli 2000a) illustrates the expected relationship between the number of interactive users and the thread depth and length of messages. The figure also aims to highlight the importance of such a mapping process by graphically illustrating how we can come to understand differences in the group level usability of various CMC-tools. The AvMaxCL line or I-limits zones represents the boundaries to interactive communication for a particular technology.
Discovering how the boundaries differ between technologies is of great importance. A variety of interesting questions are also raised about the relationship of different kinds of discourse to such boundaries. To test the prediction described above this study mapped the range of naturally occurring patterns of sustained interactive communication associated with mass interaction via the Usenet.
It can be concluded from this model that if the structure of a newsgroup’s discourse is close to AvMaxCL, then users will try to offset an increase in any one part of the function by decreases in other parts. However, this is complicated by the fact that most of the variables listed above are highly inter-related. For example, an increase in the number of interactive posters should correlate positively with an increase in the number of interactive messages. Despite this, we should still be able to observe some general effects such as longer messages being less likely to start discussion threads in mass interaction.
The model above leads to the following testable hypotheses:
1) That longer more overloaded messages would be less likely to seed new discussions (fail to respond strategy);
2) That up until asymptote, larger more overloaded groups will have shorter messages (simpler response strategy);
3) That there will be a richness-versus-reach tradeoff (Evans and Wurster 1997) in high volume discourse (simpler response strategy). The existence of the number of threads/thread depth balance is in part counterintuitive, as one would expect the average depth of interactive discussion threads to increase along with an increase in the number of distinct interactive posters. The model in fact allows for this, but only below AvMaxCL. At AvMaxCL, one would expect a compensatory strategy to be adopted. If the compensatory strategy is not an option then other coping strategies will typically be employed.
4) As group size increases the stability of group membership will decrease (Ending/reducing active participation strategy).
4 Research Methodology
4.1 Data Collection and Sampling USENET -: The USENET is a system of electronic bulletin boards, referred to as newsgroups. It is not a computer network, but rather a network of bilateral
agreements among system administrators to cooperate on bulletin board management (Sproull and Faraj 1997).
Representative sampling of USENET discourse is difficult (Rafaeli and Sudweeks 1998). Whittaker et al’s (Whittaker, Terveen, et al. 1998) solution was to produce a randomly stratified sample. They extracted 500 newsgroups from a subset of then active, widely distributed newsgroups, which contained mostly conversational messages.
For this project, data was collected from the 500 newsgroups studied by Whittaker et al enabling detailed historical comparisons. An additional 100 newsgroups were also examined to allow for the exploration of 100 moderated and 500 unmoderated newsgroups. These additional newsgroups were selected using Whittaker et al’s approach with only minor modifications. This allowed for more moderated groups to be selected. Over a 6-month period, 2.65 million USENET messages were collected.
5 Results
5.1 Descriptive Statistics Table 1, displayed in appendix one, shows overall and comparative Usenet ‘demographic’ statistics. This table gives an inkling of the type data that has been collected and the types of analysis possible. The table also highlights the some of the likely differences in the structure of discourse between moderated and unmoderated discourse, and various discourse types. For example, 46% of one-way messages to computer focused Usenet groups resulted in a response, while only 31% of one-way messages to social discourse Usenet newsgroups resulted in a response.
5.2 Cognitive Processing Limits Model For the cognitive processing limits model to be coherently tested, multivariate time-series statistical techniques need to be applied to the data. Because of the complexity of the data set, the authors are currently attempting to conduct such modeling via various machine-learning techniques. At present, the results of such modeling are not available. However, initial overly simplistic analysis does look encouraging, and is presented below. All figures and statistics presented below are based on analysis of the entire data set of 2.65 million messages. Data plots are aggregated daily totals for each newsgroup, except for user turnover where a monthly aggregation is used.
Hypothesis 1, that longer more overloaded messages would be less likely to seed new messages, (fail to respond strategy) appears to be confirmed. Five measures of message length were examined as describe in Table 2 via T-Tests comparing seeding and non-seeding one-way messages. A message was considered one-way if a parent message for the message in question could not be found posted to its newsgroup. A seed message was one that resulted in reply. For all measures of message length examined seeding messages were found to be significantly shorter at the p<. 000 level.
Liens 1.00 367757 21.79 0.00 781804 274.98 Avg. No. Words 1.00 367757 169.55 0.00 781804 214.00 Avg. No. New
Words 1.00 367757 141.85
Table 2: One-Way message Length and Seeding
Discourse
Hypotheses 2, that up until asymptote, larger more overloaded groups will have shorter messages is examined in Figure 3 below. Figure 3 displays a scatter plot of the number of individuals that posted interactive messages (thread depth greater than 2) on a single day to a single newsgroup, against the average number lines of text contained in these messages. The measure of message length was determined by counting the number of lines of text contained in each message after dropping non-text attachments. It shape suggests that the hypothesis is correct. Plots for all measures of average message length by number of interactive posters looks similar.
Interactive Posters
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Figure 3. Lines in Messages by Number of Interactive
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The hypothesis 3, regarding a richness-versus-reach tradeoff in thread depth is examined in Figures 4, 5, 6, and 7. All of these plots are supportive of the hypothesis.
In Figure 4, the measure of average thread depth was determined by using the dataset to recreate message threading (Or Message Chain). Using this technique each message was then assigned a depth. In this way the context of the message was taken into account.
Figure 4. Thread Depth by Chain by Number of
Interactive Posters
In Figure 5, the measure of average thread depth was determined by examining each message header and content to estimate its thread depth. Variables used to determine thread depth in this manner included: the number of message-id’s in the references section of the header; the number of Re:’s in the subject; the number and extent of message indenting of message content.
Figure 5. Thread Depth by Message by Number of
Interactive Posters
In Figure 6, the measure of average thread depth was determined by dividing the number of interactive messages posted that day by the number of interactive threads posted to on that same day. The number of interactive threads was determined by using the data set to recreate message threads.
Figure 6. Number of Responses to Threads per Day by
Number of Interactive Posters
In Figure 7, the inter-relationship between the number of simultaneous threads and thread depth is examined. It suggests that conversational strategy can be used to cope with information overload. Discourse is either broad and shallow or deep and narrow.
Threads (Broadcast, Reactive, Interactive)
5004003002001000-100
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Figure 7. Thread Depth by Chain by Number of Number
of Threads.
The final hypothesis, that as group size increases the stability of group membership will decrease (ending/reducing active participation strategy), is examined below in Figure 8 and by the use of correlation measures.
Membership Stability
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Figure 8. User Turn Over.
Figure 8 displays the number of messages posted to the 578 newsgroups that were active during the first 5 months of the study. Proportional membership is the percent of posters per-newsgroup per-month, who also posted to the next study month. On average only 11.5% of posters sent messages 2 months in a row. The drop in the proportion of individuals involved in sustained discourse is quite strong with a Spearman's rank correlation coefficient of -.42 (p < .000).
6 Discussion At this stage while it is too early to draw any strong conclusions about the impact of communication load on Usenet discourse, initial analysis is encouraging. This is primarily because initial findings do suggest support for the four hypotheses generated from the model. This is important because it suggests that via a direct examination of mass interaction, rather than by a focus on users and their social contexts, an understanding can be gained of the impact of information overload on discourse dynamics.
This work in progress is of significance for two reasons. First, it should pave the way for comparative studies of the boundaries to sustainable interactive group discourse using a variety of CMC-tools. The authors have collected email list data for this purpose. Such comparative studies should help us start to come to terms with the link between types of CMC-tools, discourse, and discourse structure. This in turn will provide us with useful usability information at the group level. Second, the study offers hope that in the future, with sufficient modeling of the data obtained from mass interaction, we will be able to provide a formula that roughly estimates communication load in a variety of situations.
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