EKr.

I NIPOLAR MOMENT

ig

sincf Ii bcfauK' ticar that an r\liau,sU'(i So\'it:lwas taliing oli' IIK- ('ok! War, the (jucsi has IKH^II (ui for a iKAiurriain role in ihc woik!. Ro!c>. howe\'ei\ arc not in\c!Uctl iihf .)!>sira(t; \.\w\ arc a response so a |H"r(eivc<l world s i r iutnrAccorciniglv. liiiiiking about posi-Clokl War AiueiKan loreigpoliiv has bceii Iraisuxi b\ several i'onvernionalh a((e|)tc(! as-SEUiiptions about xhv sha}>{ ol ' ihe post-Cokj War environiiienl.

Fii-.sl. il lias been assunied that the ok! hipolar work! wouUIbe^el a nuiltipolar work! witli power dispersed (o new tx-niersin japan, l iei ' inain (and/or "Kinope"). Chma and a dimin-ished Soviet ruion/RusMa. Seeoud. Hsai the donie>li{ Asneri-t an consensus for an inte! nationaiisl loi'eign polK-\\ a consen-sus radie<i!!v weak<"ned bv the t^xperieiue iu VieHsani, w((u!dsni)stantialh' be restou^l n<!w i!)al polu ies and det)ales inspiredb\ "au inor(hna!e leaf ol ( oininuiiisin" eoiikl in- safeiv I'etired.' i l i i rd , tiiat in the new post-So\iei straiegjc eri\-in>nuien! \hvdireat oi war woukl be (tranialiealh' diniiuished-

Al! ih iee ol ' ihese assniiiplionN are niisl.iken. T h e iiimu'diaiepos!-(:o!<l VVa!" world is not rnnllipolar, II is nnipolar. I'beeenier oi worki power is the mu hailcn,^-ed supe ipowe i . thel/niled States, alieiuied !)\ its Westens .lilies. Seusnd. theintcrnaiionaiis! ("oiisensus is utidei' i-enewed assault, 'I'lie as-sauli liiis linie comes not onlv from the nsnal po(kets olpost A'ietnani liberal isohuionisni (e.g.. the chmelu's) but trouia r-<-surgenc'e ot I'.KMJs-suie eons(M-\ats\-e isoSanoinsni. Andthird, the enieri^euce ni a new sliaiegic t'n\ ironnient. marked!>v the rise ot small a^^4•ressive slates aianed wiHi wt^ipons olmass (iestruelion and possessing tiie useans to <!eiivei diesn(what nught be (ailed Weapon States), makes ihe ((Hmaj^dceadi's a time (sf hei"'iuene<!, not diminished, ihieat of war.

! he mosi striking feature ot the post-C^old War world is \\.>inxilaritv. \ o doubt, multipolariiv will eome iu time. In

C h a i l c s K i a i H h a n n n r r ss .t s \n i i i ( ak - ( l ( o l u i n n i s i 1 his a n H Ic is . i dap ic r li i o r n t h r a u i h o i \ \U-\\r\ \\. J ackson MrnKir i . i i l ,Ciiur<' ( l rh \er< 'c ! m

24 KORKU;N AKKAIR.S

fK'rhaps a i t o i h e r geiu ' ra i i t t i i oi" so iht-rc ui l l !)c grea t( o c q u a ! \vii!i t h e I ' n i l ed S ta tes , a n d d ie vvoild will, in >n l u s u r e .r e s e m b l e t h e p r e - W o r k l Wai 1 e ra . lUit u e <iyv IHJI IIK r e vel .n o r will we ix' l o r ( i ecades . N o w is flu* u n i p o l a r nKiiiK'nl.

1 h e r e is t o d a v n o laek ol s e ( o i u ! - r a n k p o w e r s . ( i e rnKuiv a n dJ a p a n a r e e c o n o m i c d s n a n i o s . Br i i an i a n d iMance t a n d e p i t nd i p l o m a t i c an<i to s o m e ex ten t n i i lna r \ a.sseis, 1 \\c SovietI ' n i o n possesses se\X'i'aI e l e m e n t s oi p o w e r — m i h t a r v . d i p l o -mat ie a n d po i i lKa i—bin all ai'c in r a p i d dec l ine . Khere is buto n e i i r s l - r a i e p o w e r a n d n o p r o s p e c t in ilic i n u u e d i a l e l u l n r eol a n v powt,'!" to riv'al s!.

( ) ! ih ' a few m o n t h s a g o it was (onv t -mio i i a l w i s d o m that thenew rivals, i he great j>iilars o! tlie new m u l i i p o l a r Wijrid, w o u l dbe J a p a n an<l ( i e r m a n v ( a n d ' o r K u r o p e ) . l l o w (|uickl\ ' a m \ t hcan eKplode . ' H i e n o t i o n that et o n o m i ( f>ower i n e \ i i a b l \t r a n s l a t e s irilo i^-eopolitical in f luence is a inafer ia i is! i l lusion.K c o n o n h e [jower is a neeessa rv e o u ( h t i o n lor g rea t p o w e rs la tus . But u cer tai i i lv is not s u i h c i e n t . as has l)een m a d e citnubv t h e reeen t l>eha\[or ol ( 'Crii tanx a n d [ a p a u . wliich l i a \ egeriei-allv h i d d e n u n d e r t b e (able M m e ihe first sliots KUig outin Kuwai t . A n d while a u m h e d I ' j u o p e tnav s o m e t i m e in tlie11( x5 e e n i n r \ aci as a s ingle p inve i . its iiiitia! {Hsari'av a n ddis jo in tc( ! n a t i o n a l r e s p o n s e s so tlu" c risrs in d ie Pta'sian (.uHaga in i l lnsr ra te that " K n r o p e " d o e s no( vci sjualii'v v\vu as ap h u e r o n d i e wor ld s tage .

W l u ( l ! l e a \ e s ns with t h e I r u e geo | )o! i t i [a i s t r u ( t n ! e o! thepost-C^old W a r wor ld , b r o u g h t s h a r p K iiH<i locus b \ t he i^nli"ei-isis: a s ing le po le ot wor ld p o w e r that eonsis is ol d i e l / m t e dSla tes at t h e a p e x ol' t h e i ndus t r i a l \V'est. P e r h a p s ii is m o r ea((urat<* to sav t h e T u i t e d Stales a n d b e h i n d it t he West ,i )eeause w h e r e the K'nited State's d o e s tsoi i r e a d . t t ie a l l ianced o e s not h)ll<jH. l l i a t was t r u e Isjr t h e re i la i^gmg ol Kuwai t ive>seLs in 1087. [t has Ix-en ail t b e m o r e t r n e of t h e wor ld ' ssnbse ( | nen l r e s p o n s e lo t h e iuxas ion oi' Kuwai t .

.American j>r<-(:minfiicc is based on t b e bu \ that it is t h e oulvt o u n t r \ witii t h e m i l i t a r y di}>lon],itK, p o l i i u a l a n d eeonon i i eassets to be a decisi\-e p l ave r in a t ] \ conlli( \ in w b a t e v e r par t ofd ie wor ld it ( b o o s e s to i i u o h e itsf^lT, In t b e Pei'sian (.nil ' , i o re x a m p l e , it was t h e K"nite<l Sta tes , ac t ing u n i l a t e r a l b a n d \ \ i(he x t t a o r d i n a r v spee( i . that in Augus t 1990 p r e v e u t e d (ra(jt a k t n g e r i e ( t i \ e eoj t t roi ol t h e e n t i r e A r a b i a n Pen insu l a .

Ifacj. h a v i n g inad\'{M-tenth r evea l ed tlie u!ii[>olar s u i i c t u r eof tofla\"s wor ld , c a n n o t stoj.) c s )mp la inmg aL)oul it. It [f)oks at

all ied a u d SoMti suppoM for A m e r i i a i i i u t i on in t h e gu l l a n ds p e a k s oi a u)uspira<A' nl Nor t l i aga ins t S o u d i . A h h o u g h it isperve i ' se foi- l ia! | i l e a d e r Sactdain l i n s s e m to e h u m lo r e p r e -senl d i e S o u d i . his a u a h s i s <lo<*s con ta in s o m e i r n t h , I l i euri!pola!~ m o m e n t lueaus thai with tiie ( lose of she e e n l u r \ ' stiir<-e i>-reat N o n l s e n i u \ i l wars ( W o i i d W a r 1, W o r l d W.ir IIa n d tlie ( .old War ) an ideo iog iea lh p a i i i i e d .North ><.-eksses ur i tv au<l or t le i b \ alii>-niug iis ioi 'e igu polu \ b<*hind tli.n oi\\\v r n n < ' d Sta tes . I ' h a : is wiiat is t a k i n g shape; isow in i h ePers ian (u t l t . .Aud fi>r t lu ' u e a r i u i m e . it is t h e s h a p e oi thingNlo e o m e .

i 'he lra<jis ar<' ("<|ualiv aui t t - m ( iems slit'\ iug t h e u iuehe e l e b r a t e d n m l l i i a l e r a h s u i of t ins n e u wor ld o r d e r , l'lievc h a i g e dia t tite e n U i e u m l u l a U ' i a l a p p a r a t u s (I ' m l e d N a t i o n siX'soiulious. A i a b trs)o])s. Kuropea i i ( l o m i u u m u p r o u o u n e e -!us-nts. Awd s(t on ) eslai)l!sli<'d iti d i e gul i bv d i e T i n t e d SlaleNis bu! a t r a i i s p a i e n i i o\-er loi whal is esseiil ialK an Auser ieai ie h a l l e n g e to I raqi regM)nai b c g e u s o n v .

Bul 1)1 c o u r s e . I ' h e i e is UHH h p ious laik a b o u l a newninl i ih i lera i w o i i d a n d t h e p ro iu i se i)i t he I ' m i e d Na t ions asg u a r a n t o r (ii 'a new p<At-( ^oid \V'ar o r d e r . Bui d u s is lo u u s t a k eeause And e l ic -u . i h e T n i l c d S tak ' s a u d tlie I ' u i f ed Natioiss-I ' h e r m l e d N a t i o n s is g i i a r a u l o i ' ol uo t ln i ig . i\\«, epi iu aIOI inal s ense , ii ( a u b a i d l v be sai<l !o exist. Cc^lleetne se( uriH.-i u th<' ii^nli. wi thout liie i lu ied Siaies ie.i(hng a u d {.jiodding,b r i b i n g a iu l bLu k mail n ig . IKS o n e u o u l d have s i i n e d , N o i h m gwould h a v e f)eeu doiu- : u o e u i b a i g o . u o "Deser i Shu'ld,"* u od i r ea t ol io r<e . 1 'he worUl \sould have w!iit<'ii oH Kuwait t h ew,i\ t h e last b o d \ p l e d g e d Ks (ollec n \ e s<x urUv. the L e a g u e oiNas ions . w r o t e oli . \ b \ ' s snna .

I h e r e is a s h a s p d i s t n u i i o n to be ( l i awn b e t w e e n real a u dappai ' e i i t mnl tUate] alisni. T rue inu l l ikne! alisin i iu 'oht^s a gen-u n i e eoah t iou o t ' ( o e q u a l p a n n e r s ol i o m p a r a b i e s l i 'e i tgdi a u ds l a t u i e — i h e \ \ ' ( H Id W a r 11 Big 1 h i e e (oa l iUon , i(?r r x a m p k ' .Wha t we ha'vx- i o d a \ is ps<i ido-!nul t i la tera i i s (u : a (knniiiaiUgi'cat p o w e r acts esseut ial lv a l o u e . i)Ut. e inbai ' rasse i t al d i e ideaa n d still u s j r s h i p m g al d i e shiiiu^ o! e o i l e u i \ e s e e u r i h , ie( r u n sa sli ip hei 'e . a bnga<k* tbei e, a n d blessings alt a r o u u d lo g i \ e itsuni la le i 'a l a( Uons a uu ih i l a t e r a l s h e e n . 'I lie gul l is u o n u n e ae o l l e e t u e o p e i a l i o i i i h a n was K o i e a , still d i e t lassu <'ase sludviu psc t ido -n iu i i i hue rahMi i .

Whv IIK' p r e t e n s e r ! k ' ( a n s e a l a rge s e g m e u i ol Amei ' i cauo p i n i o n d o u b t s ilie k 'g ! tnuae \ ol uu i l a i e ra l .Xmericaii a d i o n

2i) KORKK.N AFFAIRS

bm acecpis (jnite readilv adion.s underi . iken In the "'worldCdttimnnitv" acling; iti conceti . \\\\\ a should matter to Amer-icaiis !ha! iheir actions gel a Sc'<uri!\ (xinneil ns>d Ironi, sav.Detig Xiaoping <nid the bntehers of Fianasnntii S<|narc isfjevond me. But to nianv Artieritans il nialleis. it is iat geh lordornestie reasons, ihere iore , dial Anieiu.ui pohlual leadersmake sure to dress nnilateral ad ion m tnulnlaieral elodiini;'.The danger , o l e o u r s c , is that dkn might eonu- lo iielieve then-

own pretense.Bnt can Aniet i ta i(»ng snstain its nnqxilai" | )reennnen( e?

Fhe spectacle ot set txiaries oi stale and !iea^tuN I h m g a roundtiie wori<i rattling tin eups to sn|,)po!i Atnerie.s's Per'sian (niltdcploynient e\|.H)sod tlie inibalaiue between Atiieri(a's geopn-liheal reaeh and ils r e sonues . Does that noi impK tliat IIK^iheoMsts ol Aiiiei'ieaii deeliiie and "isnpenal o\ei'st!e!eh'" ai'erigfit and that nnipfjlaritv is nnsustainabl(.'?

Il is, oi coarse, i rne that it Atiierifa succeeds ii) runn ing itst^eonomy irno tlu* ground , tl will not hv able t(! fet.iin itsunipolar lole tor long, in whi( h (ase the unipolai moinenl willbe brief indeed (one decade, perhaps. !"ather ihan, sa\ . threeor ffHn). Hut ii ihe eeononu is rnn iiuo tii<' g iound n will notbe be(~ause of imperial oversirsich. i.e., i)e(anse America hasoverreat i ied aliroad <uu\ draitUMl ilsell' widi geo|)olincal entan-glements, ' t h e I 'ni ted StaU's ioda\ spends 5.1 percent of itsONP on defense. I ' n d e r J o h n F. Kemiedv. when the t 'n i tedStales was at us eeonomie anti poliiital apogee, it spens aliuosit w u e a s n n u b . Adiiiinrstiatjon plans ha\'e I'-S. delense s].)end-ing O!i a tra!ecl<)r\' down to lonr pc^rtenl In 199"), the lowestsin<<' Pearl Flarbor.

An Asneric^ait collapse to se<~ond-nnik status will be no! lorfcH'eign btit lor domestic reasons, I 'his is noi the place loeng.ige in extendc:cl delKile al)out die t anse ol' America'seconomic dillieuilies. Bnt the notioti tliat we ha\c^ spentoui'seh'es into peiuirv aljj'oad is s imph nf)t sustainal)le. Amer-ica's low sa\'ings rate, j)oor edncational svstem, stagnant pi'o-dnctivitv, declining work habiis, lising demand for \s'ellare-sfate enti i lements and new taste lor ecfjlogua! Inxuties havenotiiing at all to do with engagement in Furope . ( 'eniraiAmeriea or die Mi(jdle Fast. Over the lasi tliirlv v'eai's. wlnietaxes remained ainiost fixed (rising Irom 18,;^ perc'enl to 19.(>peixent) and deleiise spending de< hne<l. domestic eniitle-mcnts nea rh doubled. What t rea ted an e<'ononn of debtn n r n a l e d in American h is ton is noi bsrcagn a(h(a)tn!-es but

1 UV. r X I P O K A R M O M I A 1 27

{\\v low tax Hlcol(igv (i( fhe i980s, eouple<! unl) Arueriea\in^atiahle desire lor \ t i higher s tandards of living widioutp.is'Uig an) ol die lost.

One tan debat<' whether Atiu-rica is in t rue e(oriomi<deeliue. Its peixentage of uorlij ( . \p is rougbh' wluax' it hasf)eeii diroui^houl the tweniietli cenlnrv (Ix'tw'een 22 and 2(1per{~ent). exeepting (he aberratiosi ot die immediate posi-Wovld Wai" [1 era when its (oinpeti tors were digguig out Iromthe rnhbk^ ol u;u\ But even il one (toes argiu' that A m e i u a isin eeonotnic decime. it rs snnph absnixt to nnph Ehaf tise roadto sohencv is to. sav, abatulou Kl Sah'ador. evacuate tJie!*hilippines or gel oul oi' the guif. Khere mav be othet goodreas()ns l(5r doing all of these. Bui it is nonsense lo suggeNt<loing ihem as a wa\ tis get af the rool ol Ain(Miea"s ceonomu

It IS. moreovcM'. a mistak<' \n \ lew America's exiaMioiis abroadas notiiiug bul a diain on ifs <M'onoiii\. As eau be s<'cu in ibegui!, America's insoh'i^neul abroad is iii tiuun' wa\s an essen-iial pillar of \hv AnK'ru an et onomx. Khe I 'ni led States is. likeli i i tam bc^f'ore tt. a (omnu' icial , nuiritisrie. t rading nation thatneeds an open, stable world (.•nviromnent in whicii to t l ir i \e. Ina wtjrid of Saddanss. li lUv I uiled SttUes wx'r'e to sh<'d us\uu<|ue superpower role, lis e( ouomv would be graveh vM)iinded.Insecure sea iant's. im[>o\taishe<l tra<iing partners. e\o!-bnant oilprieeN. explosns* regional tnstabilit\' are (snh' tiir more obviousrssks ol' an Anieriean abdi(ation. l^'oreigu (auanglenients arein<k-e(1 a bu iden . liut shev ai"c also a n<'cessitv. l i i c cost olensuring at! open aud VAIV world for Aiiicriean <'omnKM'c<-—3.-1peru'nt (st 'cNi'aud lalling—is ba!xH\' rXfjrbitaiH.

ni

Can Anseru.a ^upporf Us umpolai status.- ^ es. Hut -(nHAiuvnc'AUs st!pp<5rt \n( b unijxsla! status.- I bat iv a moreproblenialK' (jut^stfon, l-oi a small but growing < b o m s olAnsericans this Msion ol a unipolar world led b\ a shnamiiAmerl<-a is a mgbtmare . l lenee th<' second major element otthe post-(iol<t W'af realitv; the revival ol A m e i u a u ssolaliou-ism.

1 have great respect bu Amet-ican isolationism. Kisst, be-tanse of its popular appeal aud, second, becau>e ot its uauu~alappeal. On tise laee ot il. isolationism se<'ms tlie logi(aL(7<id-gi\'en foreign poliev tor tbe lai i tcd States. It is not justgeograpfn tbat inclines us lo st --we are an island (ontineut

28 F O R i . K A AFlAii<S

p i o t e t S e d !>v t w o \ ,ssl c K e a i i s . b o i ' d e i e d \)\ t u o n e i g h b o r N t h a t

(~onld l i a r d l v b e f r i e i i d i i e r - b u ! h i s i o r s . . \ m e r i ( a w a s l o u n d e d

o n t i l e i d e a o i ( i e a n s i n g i t se l l o i ( h e n i l i i g u e s And i r r a t i o i i a h -

l i e s , d i e d \ n a s ( i e s q u a b b l e s And r e l i g i o u s w a r s , o l d i e O l d

W o r l d . < ) n e m u s t h a \ e ix-spet i fo}- a s t r a i n i)i A m e i i( a u

t h i n k i n g s o p o w e r i u l t l ia t l o t u ' u n s u t h s b e f o r e P e a r l l l a i b o i

t h e v o l e l o e x t e n d d r a l i e u l i s i m e u i s p a s s e d I I K ' ll<iUNe o !

R e p r e s e u ! a l i \ ' e s b \ ' a s i n g k ' v o k - .

I s o i a l i o t U h l s s a \ r a l l u ^ r u n o b j e c i i o u a b K d i a l A u u - r u .i s h o u l d

e o n i i i R ' its a t t ( . ' n t ion> in t h e w( j r i d l o d e i e n d n s g Mta l n a t i o n a l

i n t e i e s t s . B u t i h e m o r e e x t r e m e i s o l a t u n i i s t s d c h n e u t a ! u a -

t i o n a l m i e r e s t s t o n i e -u i t b e p l u s K a l s e c u r i l x oi t h e I ' n i t c d

S l a k ; s . a u d d i e moi~e t ^ u s i v r i s o l a U o n i s i s l a k e iAiv n e v e r t o

d e h n e i h e m al a l l .

i s o l a t i o n i s t s v\iil. of t o t i i s e . s a \ i h a l d n s is u n f a i r . Uuit t h e \

d o b e l i e v e iu c i e i e i u h u g Mtal u a l i o n . i l n u e r e s i s b e v o u d d i e

p b v s u a l s e (U! ' i t v o l t h e T u n e d S t a k - s . W'v h a \ < ' a test s a s e .

l r a{ | ' s m v a s i o u o l K n w a i l And h e g e m o n i < d e s i g n s isu .Vr. ibia

p o s e d a s t k ' a r a (h i ea t t o . \ m c - r i c a u in!cf~esls a s o n ( ; e a u

i m a g i n e — a ( h r e a t i o A m e r i e a S o i l - b a s e d e u t u o n n . l o iis eh^se

a l l i e s iu th<' r e g i o n . A\]d n l n i u a k ' i \ ' !o A m e r u a u s c r u r i u i lself.

"The I ise oi a h o s i i l e p < 5 u e i . luc- led bv < 'udk ;ss oil i n s ' o u u ' .

b u i k l i n g \ \ c a p o n s o i iii . iss d e s U i a t i o u a u d [ h e m e a n s m d e l i v e i

t h e m r e g i o n a llv a u d e v e n t u a i h iiitei 's o u i u i e i u a l h ( S a d d a m h a s

a l i e a d v k - s t e d a t l i r e e - s i a g e r o e k e t ) ( a t i h a i d l \ !)e a m a t t e r of

i n d i f ] ' ( ; r e n e e t o i h e I ' m t c - d S t a t e s .

jl u n d e i t h e s e ( o n d n i o n s a ( a d i e ol l u l i u e n t i a l l i b e r a l s a n d

u M i s e r v a i n e s I m d s t h a t u p o n l e l l e e t i o n l a i i d lu c o n n a<h( t n i u

l o t i l e d o t t i ' i n e e n n i u i a t e d b \ t h e m o s t d o s isfi p r e s i d e n i ol d i e

}.)osn\ai e i a . | i m ! r i \ ( - a r l e i ) t h e P e i s s a u (>ul l is n o t . a l i e i a l l . a

vi ta l . V n t e r i e a n i n i e r e s t . t h e n it is l i a s d i o s e e v\ l ial '"viial

i n i e r t ^ s t " c .m m e a n , l i ' t l i e P e r s i a n d u l l ' is iH>! a Mt.il i n t e r e s t ,

d i e t ! u o t l i m g is. .All d i a l is \vl\ is p r c \ e u t i u g ;ui H u a s i o u oi t l i e

i d o r i d a K e v s . .And h ) r t h a i \ o u n e e d .! ( . o a s t t ^ u a i d s o u i l o

u o t iwvd a I V ' t U a g o u a n d \ o u e e r l a n i i \ d o no t l u - ed a S i . i t e

D e p a r t n u - n t .

I s o l a d o n i s n i is d i e l u o s ! e x U ' e n i e e x p r e s s i o n ol d i e .Vu ie ru a u

d e s i r e t o r e t u i n t o t e n d its \ i u e \ a H l s . B m t h a i c k ' s i i e i u i d s

e x p r e s s i o n iu a u o t i i e r i a r i n o i ' e soph!s i i< a i e d a n d s e i i o n s

f o r e i g n po l i ( s s< h<iol; u o t i s o L i t i o m s m b u l r e a l i s m , i b e N( luHil

t i ia t i n s i s t s t h a i . \ m e i " K a n b n e i g u p o l u \ b e g u i d e d s o k ' h b \

i n t e r e s t s a n d t h a i g e n e r a l K d e t i n e s t h e s e m i e r e s t s m a tsa! l o w

a u d n a l i o i i a l n i a n n e i ' .

UNIFOI.AR MOMKN

p T S w o r e I U T O I C i n t h e

<iga! i i>! i u s c i M i i a n d ( o i n n i i n n s n ) - N o u .s o m e ;n-^"u<' s l iai i l i c t i m e fdf h r m i s n i is p a s s t n l . F o r r x a i n p l c .

|{-anc- I- K i r k p a n i c k vv ro i c . l o b e siiix- h c l o i x ' \hv g-idf c r i s i s -

llvAl " l ! is t i n i r i o S^INC u p llu^ ( h i b i o u s b t a i c h l s o i s u p e r p o w e r

s l a t u s . " l i u i f in <^\\v u p ( IK- " u n u s u a l i )u r< lcns ' " o i s h e p a s i a u d

••f-ciurn l<) " s u j r n i a r l u n o . " Vlvdl m e a n s iakini> " ( a i e of p^(•^S'

ing" p r< ib ic i i ] s o i f d u * a t i o ! ) , i a m i l v . i n d u s i r s a u d ie t b i i o l o g v " AI

h o u H - . ' t h a t E u c a n s t h a i w e s l i o u l d n t i M i \ l o b e ( h e b a ! a n ( e r ol

p<jwcj" in I ' . u r o p e o r in A ^ i a . n o i \\\ ! o s h a } x ' i b e p o H n ( al

e s o i u i i o n o l i b e S o v i i i I ' n i i s n . W e s b o n i d a s p i r e i n s i e . i d \o !)e

"a n o r u t a ! e o u n l r \ in a ussrnKil n m e . " '

l l s i s IS a r a lh (^ r eos i ipe l lmi^- N i s i on of A u i e r i e a u p u r p o s e - B u i

1 a n i uo\ M u e i b e r e is s u ! li a diiu^i; .is ! i o ! n i a ! u n u ' s , I! a n<M'n^al

t i u i e is a t i m e w h e n i b e r s - is na evi l w o r l d {^npu ' e o u i b e locsse.

u h e n t b e w o r l d is in i deo lo j^ i ca t r e p o s e , i h e u e v e n sue ts a n i n e

is n o i n e e e s s a n h p e a i e l m i e . S a d d a m h a s m a d t ^ t i n s p o m !

r a t h e r e u i p h a t i e a l l v , II a u o i n i a l t i m e is a n u i e WIAVU t b e woiUl

so!~ls i i s e l f Oil! o n its < A M I . l<-a\ m g A m e r i e a r e l a l i s ' e h

u m n o l e s l e d — s a \ . Un A n u ' r i e a , i b e i i n u n e e u l b e e n i u i N t l s e n

I w o u l d s u g g e s i fha t d i e i e a i e n o n o r m a l t i m e s , I h e u o r l d

d o e s t!ot s o r t [ts<'n o m (tii its o w n . h i i b e u i n e i e e u i h e e n l n r v ,

ioj- e x a m p l e . i n U - r n a t i o n a l s!ai)ilii^ w a s noS a e b i e x ' e d o n its o w u

b u l . in lar i^e p a n . a s ihc p ! - o ( b u t o t I s f i i a u i ' s m u ' e l e n ! u s g

e \ < T U o u s o n b< 'ha l ! o l t b e b a l a u s e ol poW(M\ A m e r i i a ten( !< 'd

b e r \ - i n e v a r d s . b u l o u b b e b m d t w o g r e a t o c e a n w a l l s }>a!rolle<i

l>\ ! l ie B r i t i s h u.\\\- A l a s , t b e B r i t i s h MAV\ i\ g o n e .

l n l e r u a n o u . i l s t a b i l i t v is n(wx' r a g ive s i . ii is r i e \ ( a d i e U(M m .

W ' b e n a s b i e \ ' e < ! , il is \\w ] ) r o ( b u i o l vell-s o n s u o n s a e t i o n b \ d i e

gr iMt p o w e r s , a n d m o s t p a r t i t u l a r K o l d i e g i e a t e s i p ( ! u r i .

w b i r j i u u w an<l i o i d ) e l(H-ese( 'abk^ i u l u u ' is d i e I n i U ' d S t a t e s .

I f A m e r i t a w a m s s t a b i l i t x , n \\).\\ h a s e t o ( r e a H ' it. C o m u i n u i s n i

Is i u d e e < l SmisluMl: t h e last o i ' i b e m e s s ! a n i ( e r e i ' d s t h a t h a \ e

b a u u t e d i b i s u - u t u r \ is ( l u i t e dea< l . iUu ( b e i e wi l ! l o n s u m t b b<'

n e w i b r e a i s d i s t u i b i n g inn p e a e e .

Wliai i b r ea i s ? K \ e r \ f ) u e ie!(!!4iu/<-s o n e g rea i c b a u g e m d iei u i e r u a s i o n a l e i u i r o n u u M n . ibe t o n a [ ) s e u l ( o s m m n n s m . If thatw e i e du* o i i h e fumge, ilu-u diis migb t be a i ioruia l n m e a u d

\ - , • . • , . , ,

•M) VORUi.S AF! AIRS

ibe unipolar vision I ba\e oullined would seem al ou! enuneeess,n"\' aud dangei'ous.

Bul d i e r e is a n o l b e r gr<'al el)aug<' in m u - n i a t i u i i a l re ia l io i i s .A n d h e r e we e o m e to t h e fhird an<l iiiosi e i i u i a l !ie\\ c-lemenliu t i ie post-Ciold \\'<u' w o r l d ; d i e eiiu 'rg<'iKe of a uvw suaU'gKe n v u ' o u m e n t marke<l !)\ i b e fsrolifcral iou (JI w e a p o n s of fsiassd e s l r n t t i o n . Il is .1 ec r i a in tv iba l m t b e n e a r f u t u r e i b e f e will bea (b ' amai ie iner<-ase m t h e n u m b e r o! s ta tes a r m e d witbf>i(*log;i("ab ehemiea ! a n d u u e l e a r \veaj)ous A]U\ i b e m e a n s lode l ive r t hen ] , u n wheit^ o u txu'th. "Bv d i e \ e a r 2f)<H)/' esuui . i t esD e f e n s e Seereta i ' \ ' Diek ( i b e n e \ . " m o r e t h a n iwo <lo/eii d e \ e bo p i u g n a t i o n s will h a \ e balhsl ie iius>iles. I fs o! d iu se u s u i i u i e swill h a v e t h e seientifu skills \o m a k e ibei i o w n , a n d ball oldiei i i e i t h e r h a \ e o r dW u e a r fo g e i t i u g u u e l e a r eapabi l i tv . ,rswell. 'I hirtv e o u n i r i e s will h a s e < h e i u u a l \ v e a p o n s au<! ien willbe ab le to d e p l o y hjolog-ital u e a p o u s . " "

h IS of <~<)m"se f>aual to sa\ dial m o d e r n f e d u u ) l o g \ ' hass h i u u k t lu ' woi icb But i b e o i ) \ ] ons e o i o l l a i w tha i in as h r u n k e n wor ld t h e ( h \ i d e benvee i i regiftual supe!-pi)wers a n dgr<-ar p o w e r s is r a d i ( a l b l i a r i o w e d . is lai-eK d i a w n . Missiles'shrink d i s t ance . N u c l e a r (or cbe imca l o r l>in!ogi(ai) (UniceslUultipK p o w e r . Bo th ( a n be b o u g h t at u i a r k e l . ( ^ o u s e ( | u e m hihe geop()Iiti< al Uiap is i r i e v o ( a b b a l l e i e d . IMI'U- s e a r s a g o .(U'rmauN'—-ecu I rally l o e a u a b liighK mdusir i . s l <fud b e a \ i [ \p o p n ! a t e ( ! — c o u l d pose a i b r ea t Ui svoiid s e ( n r i ! \ a u d 10 tileo i b r r gi'eal powej 's . It was m e o u c e n a b l e that a r i ' l a t i \ e i \ smallM i d d l e Kasteru s u u r wish an ahiiosi eiUiu-K i n s p o r i e d i n d u s -tr ial base eou ld d o a n \ t h i u g ' m o i e t h a u t h r e a t e n its n e i g h b o r s .r b e ( e n t r a l i n i t h ot tb<' ( o n m i g ta a is ibat tbis is m^ h u i g e r tlie

ease : r e l a t iyeh smal l . peripluM~al a n d b a e k u a r d s ta tes \vil] ht*able to e u i e r g e r a p n i h as i b r e a t s not o u b to r ! ;gioual . but towork l - s<"cn! i [ \ .

fra(j, which (unless disaruK-d b \ D e s e u S i o n n ) will Iskeh bem possess ion oi imere<intiue!U.!! uiissiles w i t b m tlie de(~a<i<*. isI lie p r o l o t \ j)e <)| this uew s t ra ieg ie i b r e a i . wbat migb l be i alletld i e " W e a p o n S ta te / " '1 be W e a p o n StiHe is an l u m s u a l i n l e r u a -t ional e r e a n u ' e iuark( ;d bv se\'(.*Eal el!ara( lei isiu s:

-—ll is uol UHKh ol a i i auou s ia t t \ l i a ( | , fo!"<*Kampl(\ is a s ta teol r ecen t y m t a g e widi a r b i t r a r \ ' I x m i e i s w h o s e r u l m gpariv espli< itlv dc-nies thai lra() is a n a t i o n . (It i c l e r s to

\ ( l ^ [ ! r s ^ N M I U - i i i n ^ i 1 ' . J l i ^ c ! I J i l c i ^ h ^ ( j ^ ^ t • l l 1 ! ' f i ( \ \ ^ x i ' H s . ' h •! 1 I M \ <

\U¥_ r M l ' O l . A R MOMl ' .X I 31

\nH\ a n d Svri.s as rt^i^ions. p a n o t ' l l i r kui^cr A r a b n a t i o nlo r w'hidi it rcscrvcN i\w Icrni . )

- In llu- \Vra | )on Sla te , ihi ' s ia l r a)) | )aratn^ !> c x t r a o r d m a r -iK well (lfM.'K)|Hxi a n d <-ompiciciv d o i n i n a k ' s dvi i soacw.i h c ra<1or dial prr i is i ls nuss! W e a p o n Slak-s lo sustain

such a siriK tuix' is oil. X o n n a i h a s tale n e e d s soisie k ind oitaeil o< ja! (ond ' ae t w a h tUv n\:i\ son.v\\ b ecause u l t i i na t ehtile staK^ nsust tvlv on soeitMv to s u p p o r l n wiih taxes , ' l l i e(til s tales a r c in an a n o n i a h u i s posi ison: t h e \ d o n<j| nee(i asocial coiurac I IK'S avise na t iona l ux-aiih eonies f rom (M1 a n doil IS wholly con t ro l l ed bv d i e state. Oil s lates a t e p e t u -liarlv {iislribiitive slates, ( > o \ e i n n i e n t dis t r i t )uies goo<!s tosocictv ra t l t e r t b a n d ie o t h e r wn\ a r o u n d . It is du ' re to ix-i h e Sfun'ee Jiot o n h ol' pou<T l>ul ol weal th , I his m a k e spossible an e x l r a o r d i n a r \ deg | -ee oT social con i ro l I'xe!'-<-ised b \ a p o w e r l n l . of ten rcprc^ssi\c suuc n p p a r a t n s .

— 1 he c i i r rcn l W c a p o j ! States have d e e p gricx-.uicrs againstd ie West a n d tiic u o i i d o i ' de r thai it has es iab i i shed a n denh!r( t"s , I 1 i e \ a r e ihcreCore sn!nx ' r s i \ e of tlse mte i na-t ional s ta tus (juo. vvhu h ibev sec as a rcsKhu; ot to lonia l^ism, 1 'hesc H-seiUnicnts fuel an obses s i \ e {hi\-e lo h igh-t e (h nii l i iars d e \ e l o p n i e n t as thv nn l \ wiw to l e a p t r o ghis[or \ a n d U> p lace d u a n s e i \ e s on a l o o n u i ; Irons which t(iehaile!U4-e a W e s t e r n - i m p o s e d o r d e r .

\ he W e a p o i ! Sla te nee<l not be an oil s ta le . N o r t h Koj ' ra ,haixi at work o n luu !ear te<(nioiogv. is a c a i u h d a t e W e a p o nSta te : it iias al'tout <is m u e h k^gitimatA a-, a nati(sn-siaie as ih<-(H-raiian D e m o c r a t i e Repubh<-; its s late a p p a r a t u s to!ail\ d o m -inak-s civil societv b \ Mr tue not of oil bnl ot an ex( |u i s i t ehd e v e l o p e d Sta lmisnu ' its a n l i - W e s l e r n g r u n a n i e s r u n d e e p ,

l l i e d a n g e r I run i i h e \Veap(Hi Siate is posed t(KLix h\ ir.Kj.iorjiofi'ow p t - i haps b \ N o r t h Korea <sr i.ii)va. In t h e tu^xl( e i u u r v . h o w e \ e r , the p roUle ra t i on oT s i r a l egu w e a p o n s willnot be !-esiruic<l to W e a p o n Slates , WindfaU w e a h h allows oils ta les \o i m p o r t h igh t e d u i o l o g v u e a p o u ^ ni d ie a b s e n c e of auiaun-e m d n s t r i a l base. H o w e v e r , h ss nol hai 'd t<> inJitgnieuiaiuiersiates-—><iv. A i g e n t i n a . Pakis tan , l i ' an . S o u i h A h u a —r e a c h n i g t h e s,mie le \e l of wt^spons d e s e f o p m e n t b\ ' l ueans olo i x h n a r v indus lTia l i /a l ion . ( i 'oda\ most ol these c o u n t r i e s a r eI r i e n d K , t)ui sonu- a i e nns[a!>!e a n d p o t e n l i a l b hosti le.)

H i e pos t -Cold W a r e ra ts t h u s i.>erhaps be t t e r called ihe e raoi w e a p o n s oiAnass d e s i r u e l i o u . 1 he pi-o!i!eration of w e a p o n s(*!' mass d e s n i K t s o n aiul the i r mean ' - ol dcliverv will ( o n s i i i n t e

:V2 F O R l - I C . X A l l A I R S

i h e g rea ics i s ingle i h i e a i lo wur ld sExnr iu Un d i e rest of o u rh \ e s . T h a t is what m a k e s a ne\s interi tat ion. iJ o r d e j n«>[ animpei-ial d i e a m o r a Wilsojsian i a n l a s \ bm a m a t t e ! of t h eshec re s i p i a i d e n e e . It is s lowb d a w n i n g <m t h e U'("st ibal d i e r eis a n e e d to esiabl ish sonse lunv r e g i m e \o pishee these w e a p o n sa n d t l iosc w h o b r a n d i s h t h c n i .

in p a r h a m e n l a i - \ ' d e b a t e on t b e gul l crisis c \ e n Bru i sbI , a b o n r P a r u l e a d e r Neil Kinno( k bas e m p h a s i z e d that ii is noie n o u g h to get l i .u j oui oi Knwai t . Iraci^ ( b e m i ( a ! s iusks , besaid, ninsi be des t r f j \ ed a n d Ks nu<'lc;n* p i o g r a n i m t e r u a l i o n -all \ coutrol le<b Wlsen ibe L a b o u r l ' a r t \ , b a r d h a h o m e l o rh a u k s . s p e a k s t h u s , u c !!av<' t h e m a k i n g s , i he b e g i n n i n g s , o k anew \V( s t e rn eonst n sus .

' h i d o whal exaelK\ ' T h e r e i n o def ini t ive ans \ve! \ but anx-soh i t ion wii! fiave io m e h u k ' t h r e e t^lenients: < len \u tg , (hsa rn i -ing . a n d dc l t - i idn ig . Mrs!, wv will b a \ c lo d e v e l o p a IH'Wi v g i m e . Similar lo C O C O M {Coordma t i r i g ( ' o n n n u t e e tni Kxj)ortC o n i r o l s ) lo d e n v \e t moix- h igh t e t i i no !og \ ' lo s u d i stales,S<-(ond. i h o s c s tales that a{-{jm!e sueh weapc^is a n v u a v will! i a \ e to submi t to s l i i d o u i s i d e ( o n i r o l o r risk be ing pbvsi<a!b 'd i s a r m e d . A tinal e i c m e n i nmst be ibe d c x e l o p n u a i l ol an t iba l -hstic uii-)sile an<j au d( ; iense s\stenLs to d( ; le iul aga ius i t i iosew e a p o n s that d o e scape Weste i u ( o n t i o l <*r pie<"n!ptN>u.

[ 'here n u g l u i>e i)etter l a t t i s s . bui lh<- m e r a l l s l r a l egv is<icai , Wi tb ibe u s e oi tlie W e a p o n Sta te , t h e r e is n o aher n a l i \ eU) c o n f r o n t i n g , d e l e r r i n g a n d . if uccc ,ssa i \ . d i s a r m i n g statesthat b r a n d i s h <uid use w e a p o n s i)i mass c les i ruc t ion . A n d i h e r eIS n o o n e to do that b m the I n i ied Sta tes . ba( ke<l ]y\ as m a n \ 'allies as will jmn ilie cndcM\or ,

f h e a l t e r n a l n e to s t u b ro[>ust anc! diJhc idi m te rx t aUion -i s m — t b e ah (Milan u^ to u n i p o i a r m —is not a s table , .staticm u l t i p o l a r w o i i d . It is not an e i g h l e e u i b - c e n l u r x ' U i n l d m\vhi (b ma tuK- pcH\ers like l ' jno |>e . Kisssia. C h i n a . Ames-ua ,arul J a p a n joe ke \ l o r p<isinon iu t h e g a m e ol IMIKHSS. 1 bea l t e r n a ! i \ e lo nn ipo la i i tv is elsaos,

f d o not nu-an to i m p h ' (bat u(>aponN ot mass d c s t i u e t i o n a r cibe o n h ' ibrx-at i ae ing ibe posi-(:<ild Wai" u o i l i j . 'V\\v\ . u e ouivt h e in*)st obv ions . O i h e r i b r e a l s <'xist, but l b e \ a r e m o r espe( ulati\-e an<! ean be st-en toilav on l \ in o m l n u - : tbs^ rise, l u re x a m p l e , ot ui ioka-ant aggress ive na t i ona l i sm in a d!smtei>iai-itig ( o m m n n i M bloc (in o n e e x t r e m e l o r n m k i l i o n . lh<- e m e r -,gcn(c ol a r e d u ( e d bm r e s u r g e n t , x c n o p b o b i c a n d r c s c u t l u l'AVcnnar^* Russia) . An<i s o m e t h r e a t s to t h e i>ca(c ol ' t h e LMsi

n i K I XU'OI.AR MOMKN 1

ct'niurv arc as HtMsiblc uxlax as was, sa\ . Xa/isni iii !9lM). 1 lwill mak<' the insches kiioivii soon i-nough. Onh ' a hopckuiDpian can bt'lirvc oiiuTwisc.

We arc in lor abnornia! nines. Our best b()|X' Un saicivsiK'h (inu-s. as U! (iifhculs tnncs pasK is \n Aii icruan stan<l will—the slrx-nglh and will (o lead a unipolar world,unash.tnicdlv laving down ihe rules o! world o rder and beingpu' |>arcd to en lo r re them. (:(!n^)are(l !o the lask of defeatingiascisni arid coninunnsin. avcuing (liaos is a rashi'j subtle lallSo gieatness. It is not a lask u e are a!i\ ni<iie eager lounder take than ihe gseat twilight struggle jusi ("oncluded. Bniil is just as uoble an<i )nst as ne<fssars'.