ISSN 0972-1827 For private circulation only NISTADS NEWS Nistads News is the official newsletter of National Institute of Science, Technology and Development Studies, (CSIR), Pusa Gate, K.S. Krishnan Marg, New Delhi 110012. It is published in April and October Vol 6 No 2 2004 October http://nistads.res.in Prof. Rajesh Kochhar, Director NISTADS, in conversation with Dhokra shilpis in Sadaibereni village, district Dhenkanal, Orissa, 12 July 2004. NISTADS is helping these shilpis improve their metal casting techniques.
Transcript
ISSN 0972-1827For private circulation only
NISTADS NEWS
Nistads News is the official newsletter of National Institute of Science, Technology and Development Studies, (CSIR), Pusa Gate, K.S. Krishnan Marg, New Delhi 110012.
It is published in April and October
Vol 6 No 2 2004 October http://nistads.res.in
Prof. Rajesh Kochhar, Director NISTADS, in conversation with Dhokra shilpis in Sadaibereni village, district Dhenkanal, Orissa, 12 July 2004. NISTADS is
helping these shilpis improve their metal casting techniques.
A drawing by Manulata (7 years) on the occasion of CSIR Foundation Day celebration on 26 September 2004
Nistads News Vol 6 No 2 October 2004
CONTENTS
Articles
Ashok D.B. Vaidya: Ayurveda – the mainstream Indian medicine: How effective and safe is it? 5
Vipan Kumar and Shweta Kautia: The making of a “Virtualised Dhokra Museum” 9
L.P. Rai and Naresh Kumar: S&T personnel database in India 15
S.M. Dhawan and B.M. Gupta: Comparative evaluation of Indian physics research: Impact factor vs citations frequency 17
Rajesh Kochhar: Till science transcends the scientist: Role of human factor in science 19
Rajesh Kochhar: History as Half-truth: NCERT book distorts facts, discards logic 21
Rajesh Kochhar: The Vedic void: Understanding the past through science 23
Rammi Kapoor: S&T archives: Indian perspective 25
Research highlights
Mohammad Rais: Policy development to support agro-biodiversity in hills of Uttaranchal: Interim progress 29
Vu Ngoc Yen: The State owned enterprises in Vietnam ― Problems and prospects 31
Research projects
K.C. Garg and Bharvi Dutt: Mapping of Indian science using science citation index (SCI) 37
V.K.Gupta: Intellectual property rights information for R&D scientists in CSIR 37
V.K.Gupta and Bharvi Dutt: S&T policy reforms in India – Retrospect and prospects 37
V.P. Kharbanda: Formation, growth and changing structure of national scientific communities in India and China (PhD project) 38
Vipan Kumar: Virtualised Dhokra Museum: A diffusion of age-old with modern technology 38
Usha Menon: Designining for learning and innovation in developing countries – The case of activity-based education 39
Anuradha Singh: Indigenous and traditional knowledge systems 40
R.S. Singh: Conditions prevailing in NISTADS’ library and science and technology archives: A study 40
R.S. Singh: Study on conservation activity and research in India 40
S.S. Solanki Technological upgradation of traditional skills of rural artisans through information, training and adaptation of science and technology in Sampla, Dist. Rohtak, Haryana 41
Yogesh Suman: A model to analyze the impact of intelligent cell on improving the efficiency of a mobile communication system 41
Conferences, visits, lectures and seminars
Papers presented in conferences/workshops/seminars, etc. 43
Mr. Rajiv Mehrotra ‘In Conversation’ with Prof. Rajesh Kochhar on Doordarshan 58
Conference reports
Santanu Roy: 13th international conference on Management of technology — New directions in technology management: Changing collaboration between government, industry and university (IAMOT 2004) 62
Neelam Kumar: International Congress of Psychology 63
Santanu Roy: 4th international conference of International entrepreneurship forum – Entrepreneurship: Contexts, locales and values (IEF 2004) 64
Sujit Bhattacharya: Eight international conference on Science and technology indicators 66
Book reviews
V.P. Kharbanda: China’s Scientific Elite by Cong Cao’s 68
For the record 72
Publications 73
Abstracts of papers published 76
Yellowed pages Y1-Y40
Report of the Indian Famine Commission presented to both Houses of Parliament [UK], 1881 Y1
ARTICLES Ayurveda – the mainstream Indian medicine: How effective and safe is it? Dr. Ashok D.B. Vaidya* “What is Ayurveda? The definition of Ayurveda would be almost alike to that of Hinduism. It is a well-known matter in history that, in India, there is a fusion of people-Aryan, Dravid, Hun, Shaka etc, who have been either here or arrived here. In India, the most significant element of culture is her power of assimilation. Whenever we have negated this power of assimilation, we have allowed fragmentation through cults, sects and innumerable castes. From such a perspective, the definition of Ayurveda would be a Shastra/Science that is with ‘the times of life’ and about life and health. As a science, it would be open to change and growth”.
- Sri Babubhai P. Vaidya on Ayurveda University: Debate in Gujarat Legislative Assembly (1963).
The ancient pioneers of Ayurveda, too, were open-
minded in defining the scope of Ayurveda: ÉÊciÉÉÉÊciÉÆ ºÉÖJÉnÖ&JɺÉàÉɪÉÖºiɺªÉ ÉÊciÉÉÉÊciÉàÉ * àÉÉxÉÆ SÉ iÉSSÉ ªÉjÉÉäBÉDiÉàÉɪÉÖ´Éæn& ºÉ =SSÉiÉä ** - SÉ. ºÉÚ. 1-41 “Wherein the beneficial and adverse influences leading to a healthy or a diseased life and their respective modalities - helpful or harmful - are described and measured-that is called Ayurveda”. Such a comprehensive and growth-oriented definition of Ayurveda would also cover the study of the normal physiological and abnormal pathological factors and mechanisms, which would lead to a long, healthy and happy life or to a short sick and unhappy life. It would also permit the stepwise reversal of
the pathogenesis of diseases by rational control and eradication of all the contributory factors - genetic, environmental, metabolic or behavioural.
The genesis of Ayurveda is shrouded in antiquity and has an interesting blend of myths and reality. But one that appeals to reason, is the description of a “Soma-posium” (Symposium?) of Rishis, at the juncture of Dwapara and Kaliyuga, when Arjun’s grandson Parikshit ruled the earth (c. 3000 B.C.). The venue was in Himalayas and a galaxy of Rishis had gathered to debate and decide on what to do for the emergent diseases. Charak-samhita as well as Bhrigu-samhita have covered the event: ÉÊ´ÉPxÉ£ÉÚiÉÉ ªÉnÉ ®ÉäMÉÉ& |ÉÉnÖ£ÉÇÚiÉÉ& ¶É®ÉÒÉÊ®hÉÉàÉÂ* iÉ{ÉÉä{É´ÉɺÉÉvªÉªÉxÉ¥ÉÿàÉSɪÉǵÉiÉɪÉÖ−ÉÉàÉ ** iÉnÉ£ÉÚiÉä−´ÉxÉÖBÉEÉä¶ÉÆ {ÉÖ®ºBÉEßiªÉ àÉc−ÉǪÉ&* ºÉàÉäiÉÉ& {ÉÖhªÉBÉEàÉÉÇhÉ& {Éɶ´Éæ ÉÊcàÉ´ÉiÉ& ¶ÉÖ£Éä**
SÉ. ºÉÚ. 1-6-7
The names of Rishis who had gathered have been given too: Bhrigu, Angira. Jamadagni, Vasistha, Kasyapa, Atreya, Gautama, Narada, Agastya, Markandeya, Bharadwaja, Viswamitra, Chyavana, Shandilya, Kaundilya, Badrayana, Saunaka etc. The final consensus at the conference was that someone will have to be deputed to learn advanced Ayurveda from Indra. Bhardwaja offered himself and went to Indra. Shukracharya, Bhrigu’s son has stated in Bhrigu-Samhita, that he too quietly want alongwith and listened to Indra’s discourses. The idea of sending a Rishi for advanced studies appears to be quite a modern attitude. It was only much later that the fundamentalism in Ayurveda, emerged as a reaction to the threat of foreign invasions. Pre and post independence Ayurveda has already opened up to the new emergent sciences, while abiding by most of the Ayurvedic principles and axioms. It is time that more basic sciences get incorporated in Ayurvedic education.
*Medical & Research Director Bharatiya Vidya Bhavan’s, Swami Prakashananda Ayurveda Research Centre (SPARC), Juhu – Vile Parle Scheme, Mumbai 400 049. E-mail: [email protected]
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Sciences are not a monopoly of allopathy or moderm medicine. Modem Ayurveda is emerging as a mainstream system of health for majority of Indians.
Ayurveda is mainstream because it is the most widely used system of health in India. Modern medicine is available to hardly 30% of our population. Despite this usage at the personal and rural levels, politically dominant system is high-tech allopathy. The budgetary allocation to Ayurveda are small and these resources are also taken up by the protagonists of “Shuddha Ayurveda”, who are usually life sciences-illiterates. The leaders of modem medicine though Ayurveda-illiterate have started paying lip-sympathy to Ayurveda, as it has now gained global respect and demand. The allocations and efforts for scientific Ayurveda are still meager. Despite this imbalance, significant scientific work has emerged from research in Ayurveda. A brief review of these highlights would convince anyone that the submerged part of the iceberg must be immense.
Ayurveda is primarily health-oriented rather than disease-oriented. Hence the unique contributions of Ayurveda are in health-promoting life~styles. Swasthavritta, Dinacharya and Ritu-charya of Ayruveda have been major health-maintenance programmes. Modem medicine is now waking up to the need of these life-style measures viz. healthy and balanced diet, adequate exercise, yoga, stress-management by meditation and relaxation response. India is emerging as a “capital of diabetes mellitus”. In urban India every eighth person is a diabetic or a prediabetic. In Ayurveda, diet, exercise, sleep, sex life etc are considered in great details for the prevention and management of diabetes Vagbhatta has described in Chikisasthan as follows: +ÉvÉxÉgUjÉ{ÉÉnjÉ®ÉÊciÉÉä àÉÖÉÊxÉ´ÉÇiÉxÉ&* ªÉÉäVÉxÉÉxÉÉÆ ¶ÉiÉÆ ªÉɪÉÉiÉ JÉxÉänÉ ºÉÉÊãÉãÉɶɪÉÉxÉ ** 36 ** MÉÉä¶ÉBÉEßxàÉÚjÉ´ÉßÉÊkÉ´ÉÉÇ MÉÉäÉʣɮä´É ºÉc µÉVÉäiÉ ** ´ÉÉ.ÉÊSÉ. 12-36
Chronobiology — the science of the influence of time and seasons on biology has demonstrated that circadian rhythms played very significant role in health and dynamic equilibrium by neuro-endocrine regulatory factors and hormones. Ayurveda intuitively, and by observation, has recognized not only diurnal rhythms but also seasonal rhythms. Particular stress was put on Rjtu-sandhi-the transition phase from one season to another. Diet, rest, exercise. Certain health foods and sexual
activity are advised appropriate to the seasonal change. For example, Haritaki, Terminalia chebula is advised to be taken with different anupana, as per the season (Table 1). There are thousands of Indians who still stay healthy because they have inbuilt, good practices in their daily living, based on some of the fundamental principles of Ayurveda. These healthy practices must be incorporated in our school health education.
Table 1: Seasonal nutrigeusics Seasons Mahabhutas Genesis of
pathya in Ahara-vihara. As we are aware of our blood-groups we must also be aware of our Prakriti-vata, pitta, kapha and their combinations. Pharmacogenomics and Prakriti genomics are getting integrated attention in current research. For example, the dose of drugs which aggravate pitta (Gall Bladder) eg. aspirin or NSAIDs will have to be given cautiously in persons with Pitta prakriti. Similarly Kashaya-astringent and Tikta-bitter-dravyas if excessively used may lead to Vata prakopa more easily in persons vata prakriti or in the elderly, curds and kaphavardhak dravyas, at night, may more easily aggravate kapha in persons with kapha prakriti. These are matters of everyday Ayurveda, which are followed by thousands of Ayurvedic practitioners all over India.
Ayurveda has a unique and practical concept to give to the world - Pragnyaparadha, Pragnya cannot be easily translated into English, pragn comprises of three intertwined faculties of mind and self viz (1) Dhee or intelligence — the decisive or executive faculty of the brain, (2) Dhruti or perseverance and non-distractibility of attention and (3) Smriti or memory and soul-awareness. Pragnyaparadha occurs whenever there is a transgression of the normal uses of senses and motor organs - gnyanendriyas and karmendriyas. Overuse, disuse or perverted use of senses and motor parts constitute such transgressions. Ayurveda emphasizes self-restraint versus self-indulgence. Both hedonism and extreme asceticism are not considered as harmonious to health. Suppression
Nistads News, Vol.6, No.2, October 2004 6
of natural urges and reflexes has to be discouraged. Indians, unlike the Britishers, do not suffer from colonic diverticulosis. This is because the bowel reflexes or passage of flatus are not forcefully suppressed, which induce counterperistalsis. Similarly repeated suppression of sneezes may lead to asthma. This field will open up new disciplines even in modern physiology.
The properties of foods, drinks and remedies, in Ayurveda, are described in Dravyagunavidnyan. The taste of the substance has effects on Tridoshas. For example excess of salt intake leads to several disorders: ãÉ´ÉhɺªÉ +ÉÉÊiɪÉÉäMÉäxÉ ...... +ÉÉÊ{ÉSÉ ãÉÉäÉÊciÉÉÊ{ÉkÉÉàãÉÉÊ{ÉkÉ´ÉÉÒºÉ{ÉÇ´ÉÉiÉ®BÉDiÉÉÊ´ÉSÉÉÌSÉBÉEäxpãÉÖ{iÉ |É£ÉßiÉÉÒÉÎx´ÉBÉEÉ®ÉxÉÖ{ÉVÉxɪÉÉÊiÉ ** SÉ. ºÉÚ. 26-42 (3)
We have shown in volunteers and in peptic ulcer patients that salt-depletion can reduce significantly the gastric acid response to histamine (Table 2). Similarly sour, pungent, sweet. astringent and bitter tastes aggravate certain doshas, leading to diseases or their aggravation. This field gives a new dimension to nutritional biochemistry - apart from calories and nutrients of the diet.
Table 2: Gastric acid output (H.I.T.): Salt depletion
HCI (mEq/hr) No. Age (Yr.)
Subject
Baseline After salt depletion
1 22 Control 31.1 28.2
2 25 Control 25.6 21.0
3 30 Control 16.2 18.2
4 45 Control 15.4 12.4
5 35 Control 17.0 9.9
6 49 Duodenal Ulcer 25.5 16.3
7 30 Duodenal Ulcer 29.0 18.0
8 35 Duodenal Ulcer 25.4 32.3
9 45 Duodenal Ulcer 33.0 24.2
10 40 Duodenal Ulcer 15.0 4.8
11 30 DuodenalUlcer 43.2 31.4
Mean + S.E. 126.0 +. 72 18.8 + 2.61 *
*p< 0.02
Ayurveda has contributed immensely to the pharmacopoeia of other systems of medicine. Many plant-derived active principles, their modified compounds or structures have been evolved, based on their activity. These have contributed to the world from India for more than half a millennium. Table 3 shows the short lists of some of the old, medicinal and recent plant contributions of this nature to the world of medicine.
Table 3: Global medicinal plants from ayurveda Plant Activity Plant Activity
Acacia arabica
Demulcent Carum copticum
Antjurticarial
Acacia catechu
Astringent Cassia fistula Laxative
Adhatoda vasica
Expectorant Commiphora wightii
Hypolipidemic
Alium sativum
Hypolipidemic Curcuma longa Wound healing
Aloe vera Cosmetic Rauwolfia serpentina
Antihyper- tensive
Atropa belladonna
Anticholinergic Mucuna pruriens
Anti Parkinson
Berberis aristata
Antimicrobial Tinospora cordifolia
Immunomodu-lation
Cannabis sativa
Antiemetic Zingiber officinale
Antiemetic
Dozens of more plants, which have already shown both clinical and experimental evidence of activity and efficacy are awaiting introductions globally. Meanwhile the U.S. has labeled Ayurvedic drugs as “dietary supplements” and EU has called Ayurvedic drugs as mere herbals. These are culturally insensitive behaviours on plants used as medicine by one-sixth of the mankind. Indian political, scientific, business leaders and bureaucracy too have often displayed a cursory interest in this traditional knowledge-capital of the nation. Fortunately now CSIR, AYUSH and ICMR and some industries are waking up to the vast potential of safe and effective Ayurvedic plants and their formulations.
Safety of Ayurveda has to be judged not from animal toxicity tests but by the documented use in thousands of patients, for hundreds of years. Ayurvedic pharmacoepidemiology and drug utilization studies have been embarked already. The Ayurvedic industry and Ayurvedic teaching hospitals must develop drug-monitoring programmes for adverse events and reactions.
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Despite my appeal, several times, to the industry, no initiative has been shown to far. At least on 35 plants which are most used and already listed by the National Medicinal Plants Board and on commonly used 50 formulations there is an urgent need to conduct surveillance programmes for drug safety. The major concern has been for the heavy-metal bhasmas, used in Ayurveda. There have been reports in scientific literature of lead poisoning due to bhasmas etc. Hence the emphasis on the quality of manufacture is essential for bhasmas. All companies must be compelled to provide data on use-safety of their major bhasma-containing products. AYUSH and DCGI, alongwith CSIR and ICMR must initiate a movement in this direction.
There is also an urgent need to create a database on published literature on widely used medicinal plants. Selected studies in safety pharmacology are essential as are subacute animal and in vitro studies. The general impression that Ayurveda is safe, when practiced by a qualified and experienced vaidya, needs to be reinforced by proper documentation. Consensual decisions by experts, on safety, are desirable. AYUSH, CSIR and ICMR can initiate such Consensus meetings.
The availability of Ayurvedic Pharmacopoeia, Herbal Pharmacopoeia and the guidelines for Ayurvedic good manufacturing practice (GMP) has initiated proper
steps to ensure quality with proper shelf life. But the fact that there are more than 8000 manufacturers of Ayurvedic drugs makes the monitoring of their performance well-nigh impossible Consumer-awareness and industry association’s insistence of quality and self-ergulation can help to enhance quality and safety. The current financial allocations on these aspects are pittance even in most of the Ayurvedic industries. There is an urgent need to enhance the drug surveillance for quality, by regional centers of excellence.
Finally, Ayurveda has to metamorphose itself into Ayurvidya. This term has coined by Lokmanya Tilak to open up Ayurveda to emergent basic sciences. There are fundamentalists who are still resisting this globally demanded change. They are unaware of the major revolution that has taken place in biology and chemistry. These basic sciences when applied judiciously to Ayurveda, there is a strong chance to globalise Ayurveda as a universal system of medicine. The powerful hobby of Shuddha Ayurveda protagonists have to understand that by not accepting life sciences, much disservice will be done to our great healing heritage. The future generation will blame us for not accepting and leading changes in health care.
The cloning of humans is on most of the lists of things to worry about from Science, along with behaviour control, genetic engineering, transplanted heads, computer poetry and the unrestrained growth of plastic flowers.
— Lewis Thomas (1913 - 1993)
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The making of a “Virtualised Dhokra Museum” Vipan Kumar and Shweta Kautia
The process of building the virtual museum starts by digitizing data i.e. cataloging details into a database and taking photographs of all artefacts using a direct approach. For the website Macromedia Dreamweaver, Fireworks and Flash is used to build a combination of HTML and PHP pages containing information about Dhokra, a “Search” for artefacts in the museum and animations of artefacts. Website also has a section called “Virtual tours” which includes a 360° panoramic view of the museum, a three dimensional view of the artefacts and a Flash enabled virtual tour where users can navigate inside the museum using a mouse as well as select artefacts to view detailed descriptions. While taking pictures for a 360° panoramic view, camera is placed on a tripod in the center of the room and the pictures are taken at a step of 30°. The process is repeated for negative and positive pitch angles of 45°. For a three dimensional view, photographs are taken at regular intervals moving the camera around an artifact and manipulate in Flash to generate the desired effect.
This paper examines and presents the approach adopted in creating and presenting the Nistads Dhokra Museum in the form of a virtualized museum. Keywords: Dhokra,Virtual Reality, Digital, PHP, MySql.
1. Introducion The term “Virtual Museum”, is defined as a collection of digitally recorded images, sound files, text documents, and other data of historical, scientific, or cultural interest that are accessed through electronic media. A virtual museum does not house actual objects instead endeavours to emulate a real world using technology [1].
Recently the term virtual museum has become indistinct and means different things like digital collection, cyber museum, on-line museum, virtual space, interactive installation but also information gateway or simply portal [2]. In our definition the Nistads Dhokra Museum stands for an integrative laboratory, a medium with challenges in interface- and interaction design and a more powerful instrument for knowledge transfer than a digital collection or a virtual space. It is basically a small museum (a one room setup) and has constraints, such as, cost of creating an online presence, the staff time for determining and developing an online strategy and the concerns involved in maintaining any effort taken; and above all, absolute null knowledge of creating a virtual museum. As for authors’ best knowledge, existence of any such museum, in India, is hitherto unreported, though several virtual museums sites are available abroad. A simple example can be given, if we hit the google search engine for “Virtual Museum” we get around 427,000 links, if we restrict the search to India only, the number of
hits are 319 (as on October 2004). So definitely, there is a lot of scope for the topic in India in the present scenario.
2. Methodology Building a virtual museum is a modular iterative process with new modules being added based partly on changing needs and partly as and when opportunities arise. An incremental prototyping model was used in developing the project. This approach allows new initiatives to build on their predecessors to an extent but it is not linear in any way. The whole project is divided into five modules and explained as follows: Module # 1 Project analysis [3] i) Content Analysis
The full spectrum of content to be provided by the website is identified. Content includes text, graphics and images, video and audio data. Data modelling is done to identify and describe each of the data objects to be used.
ii) Interaction Analysis The manner in which the user interacts with the website is described in detail. The user on visiting the site can make use of the navigation bar to visit all available pages. Using the guest book, user can drop in comments and suggestions. While accessing
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virtual tours, with the help of a mouse or a keyboard, a user can zoom in and out, rotate in a 360˚ view amongst other things.
iii) Configurational analysis
The environment and infrastructure (in which the website resides) is described in detail. The website is hosted on a Linux machine with APACHE web server. A freely downloadable Flash plug-in should be installed in the web browser to test the flash animations. MySql database configured with an account which is used by PHP code to display content and results of user queries.
Module#2 Database Collecting all relevant data which in this case was MSWord files containing artefacts data and texts related to the Dhokra project, artefact images in jpeg format and a few Quicktime movies showing the process of making a Dhokra artefact. The process of building the virtual museum starts by digitizing data i.e. cataloguing details into a MySql database [4] Module#3 Photography Creation of panorama requires a sequentially planned photography. To capture a full 360° × 180° view of the scene, we need to capture images in rows, i.e., in addition to capturing images in a 360° circle, it is also required to capture rows of images with the camera tilted up and down. The tilt of the camera is referred to as the ‘pitch’
and is measured in degrees from –ve (down) to +ve(up). While taking pictures for a 360° panoramic view, camera is placed on a tripod in the center of the room and the pictures are taken at a step of 30° (see figure 1a). The process is repeated for negative and positive pitch angles of 45° (see figure 1b). An overlap of about 30% between adjacent images is required to achieve the proper interpolation. The number of images required to achieve 30% overlap depends upon the focal length of the camera (lense).
To complete the panorama, pictures of top and bottom (ceiling and floor) are added.
For three dimensional artifact view, i.e. an illusion of the artifact rotating on its vertical axis, photographs are taken by placing the artifact on a specially designed turntable keeping the camera stationary on a tripod. The camera is programmed to take several pictures during a time period δt, in which the turntable takes a single 360o turn. Module # 4 Integration of database and photographs with the website The database created in the second module holds information of all artefacts as well as the texts that need to be displayed on the website. To display the content on the website we make use of PHP, which stands for "PHP: Hypertext Pre-processor" a widely-used open source general-purpose scripting language that is especially suited for web development and can be embedded into HTML. PHP code is used to connect to the MySql
0°330° 30°
60°300°
Camera placement f+ve pitch angle
or
of 45o
90°270°
Camera placement for -ve pitch angle of 45o
120°240°
150°210°180°
Fig. 1a Sequential planning of photographs Fig.1b Camera pitch to capture bottom and top details
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database, pick up each artefact’s details along with its image URL and then generate a database driven image gallery system. Users can select the year and state of the artefact they wish to view. An added feature is that thumbnails are generated on-the-fly using PHP code irrespective of the actual image size. Module # 5 Creation of virtual tours and panoramas and its integration with website The website in its final form will hold two kinds of virtual tours, a 360° panoramic view of the museum and a 3D view of the artefacts. While deciding on a technology
approach to creating virtual tours for the web, consideration has to be given to how the visitors would view the images from their browsers. The latest web browsers (Netscape Navigator 4.6 and Microsoft Explorer 5.0) do not include software for viewing any of the formats such as QTVR, IPIX, LivePicture, RealSpace. That means that for optimal viewing, the browser will need plug-in software to handle particular formats. This problem of format dependency can be eliminated using Java applets. These “applets” are small (approximate size < 40kb) encrypted programs which are loaded only when needed.
Several software both proprietary (demo) as well as open source were tested during the course of development of this virtual site. The final decision, after various alterations, was in the favour of open source software. This was due to the fact that one of our main objectives was to create a cost effective website. Under the open source option, PanoTools and PTviewer are readily available software. These tools are not a complete package that one can install, run and generate the desired results. For the 360° panoramic view, the photographs taken in module#3 are used. Once captured, images are
far too large to be stitched together into a single virtual object; they must be cropped, scaled, and compressed. These images are then imported into stitching software [5]. Stitching the images The next step is to put the images together so that one single picture is created, which shows the whole panorama. In practice the single images have to be warped into a common perspective. A regular camera projects an object on a plane but a panoramic picture projects objects on a cylinder or a sphere. The parameters
of the warping depend on the lens and how the camera was oriented while shooting the pictures. Many lenses produce barrel or pincushion distortion and these errors have to be corrected before trying to join the pictures. Figure 2a shows a tiled wall, application of barrel distortion would look like Fig. 2b and pincushion distortion would look like Fig. 2c.
Very often brightness in the overlapping areas does not match exactly so that the individual images have to be cross-faded into each other. A common way to view panoramic images is to use special viewers e.g. QuickTimeVR or Live Picture’s Zoomit. So your image has to be converted to the corresponding viewer format.
The flat images when stitched together by setting “control points” in the overlap region form a complete cylindrical panorama. An example for 3 images in a single row is shown in Fig.3 [6].
The process of stitching is repeated for all the image pairs in each of the three rows forming a 360° panoramic view of the museum. This translates into stitching 12 photographs in each of the 3 rows.
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Fig. 3 Stitching multiple images and rendering to the panorama.
3. System and equipment Initial development was carried on a PIII machine of 600 Mhz speed. Later a better computer with a PIV processor of 2.6 Mhz speed with 512 MB of RAM was used. Main aim of the entire process was to generate a cost effective virtual museum. In the initial trial process several different software both proprietary as well as open source
were used. Later the entire focus was shifted to Linux based open source system. Final implementation of the website would be on a Sun Spark with the Solaris 8 as operating system (not yet implemented). Complete information about the hardware and software used is as follows:
Hardware Software
Computer Photography Linux RH 9 Windows XP
CPU: PIV, 2.4 GHz Hard Disk: 80 GB, RAM : 512 MB
SONY MAVICA FD97, 2MP CCD Fujifilm 2400 2 MP CCD Standard tripod
Website Apache Web Server MySql Database server (version 4.0)
PHPTriad for Windows PHP, Apache, MySQL, Perl and PHPMyAdmin
AutoPano Adobe Photoshop Gimp QuickTime Player Java sdk
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4. Results Nistads Dhokra virtual museum is a new presentation medium and is at the beginning of its development. This development will contain in all probability a transition from the object-centered to the visitor-centered museum, with which the virtual museum will play an important role.
The main page of virtual museum is shown in Fig. 4a, which depicts the transition images with multilingual Dhokra-name and overall presents the power of Dhokra artefacts. Figure 4b shows the Index page, which has a spotlight effect on the various artefacts and a typical side-navigation-bar.
The website also has a database driven image gallery system, which has a PHP code running allowing it to pick up MySql database along with the image from the
photograph database. Users can select the year and state of the artefact they wish to view. An added feature is that thumbnails are generated on-the-fly using PHP code irrespective of the actual image size (details in Fig. 5a and 5b.)
Fig. 4a The cover page of Nistads Dhokra virtual museum, shows the head icon votive giving strength to the name Dhokra.
Fig. 4b Index page depiction of spotlight effect on the artefacts.
Website has a section called “Virtual tours” which includes a 360° panoramic view of the museum, a three dimensional view of the artefacts and a Flash enabled virtual tour where users can navigate inside the museum using a mouse as well as select artefacts to view detailed descriptions.
Fig. 5a Search engine of the virtual website Fig. 5b Data can be sorted in various formats
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Fig. 6b Zoom effect, shows the maximum size of the head of Bankura horse shown in Fig. 6a
Fig. 6a Cylindrical panorama with a 360o view
Figure 6a shows a typical 360o panorama. Red circle shows the head of terracotta Bankra horse with maximum zoom-out. Figure 6b shows the maximum zoom-in of the same horse head. Thus kind of resolution we obtained with a simple, two-mega pixel camera was sufficiently good.
A large amount of time was spent on exploring the capabilities of each application and then choosing the best one, after testing and generating “results”. The process is still continuing and an ideal path from start to finish could not be chalked out yet. However, an attempt is made to list out the exact steps that one needs to follow to achieve high-quality results using basic minimum equipment and software available.
5. Concluding remarks The Virtulised Dhokra Museum will provide information to people both in India and abroad about the Dhokra art and its traditional technology. It will act as a platform for showcasing the Dhokra artefacts which are otherwise confined to the boundaries of the museum. As it is a collection and organization of the available text and the artefacts data into a structured form i.e. a database, it would enable the visitors (internet) to search for the specific information they wish to view. And finally the appearance of this virtual museum will provide the possibility for remote tourism, sites seeing and also for remote study and exploration of historical artefacts.
6. Future scope The current version of the Nistads Dhokra museum came about as an “idea” being implemented, on its way enabling exploration of new technology called Virtual Reality. A much better version would be a result of experience of having used these technologies and putting to practice the best approach we learnt. In the present scenario, the aim was to learn the concept and its implementation. In the next phase, a new methodology would be adopted, with better equipment like professional digital SLR and Sun-Spark computer. A new approach for the VR would be adopted based on advanced algorithms. An online artefact order form with online transaction system would be also included in the website.
7. References 1. McKenzie Jamie (1994) ‘Making of a Virtual Museum’,
http://www2.sjsu.edu/depts/it/edit272/mod11d.html. 2. Schweibenz, Werner (2001) ‘Das virtuelle Museum’,
Museum: A virtual reality approach Diamond jubilee seminar on "Virtual reality in Pursuit of excellence", conducted by IICT, Hyderabad, 4-5 June 2004 (in CD).
6. Introduction to panotools, http://www.htu.at/~sascha/ptguide.
Nistads News, Vol.6, No.2, October 2004 14
S&T personnel database in India L.P. Rai and Naresh Kumar The scientific and technological activities play a vital role in the economic, social and physical development of a country. One of the biggest stumbling blocks in the path of S&T research and development in India is the lack of a proper database, which is generally disseminated in the form of annual reports. Recently, some anomalies were observed as regards the data pertaining to the number of S&T personnel in India in natural sciences and engineering. The data available in different reports and documents prepared by premier institutions like UGC, CSIR, DST and AICTE do not tally with each other and there is a sort of mismatch. An attempt is made here to present the data pertaining to the number of doctorate degrees awarded in the fields of science and technology. A detailed description of the data variation found in different documents is discussed below.
UGC brings out Annual Reports giving the number of students/scholars being awarded higher degrees from our academic institutions. DST reproduces the data pertaining to Ph Ds produced in different fields in its publication entitled R&D Statistics. These documents prepare the base for S&T planning and policy-making in the country. This database is utilized and disseminated by other agencies in the form of study/project reports. In this context it is important to ensure the authenticity of the data. To illustrate the discrepancies in the database of different agencies, data from the Annual Reports of the UGC and R&D Statistics, are listed in Tables 1 and 2 for the years 1981- 2000. CSIR and AICTE have also brought out a few publications containing data on S&T personnel in India. Their data have also been listed for comparison with those of UGC and DST.
From Table 1 it may be noticed that data pertaining to Ph D degree awarded in natural sciences, as reported in different columns, substantially differ with each other. This type of discrepancy creates a doubt in the mind of the users about its reliability. Similarly, glancing at Table 2, we find that DSTI and AICTE data during the period 1981-91 not only differ from those of UGC, but also are far apart (almost more than double) for the corresponding years. While UGC data show a growing trend in the
number of Ph Ds being produced in engineering and technology, data supplied by DSTl and AICTE show an increase and then a decreasing trend, following the normal trend after 1991. Further, DSTI and DST2 data for the period 1984-89 do not match with each other. On the basis of data collection, it may be concluded that only UGC data are reliable and may be used for further analysis, as these are collected from degree-awarding institutions. CSIR also collected data independently in the past, but now has discontinued the practice.
To conclude, we observe that data published by different agencies and being used for science planning are not dependable. No two datasets match with each other. Besides disseminating wrong information – among policy makers and researchers, they belie the public faith that their reports should be taken as authentic and reliable. It will be desirable for the agencies to take proper care while collecting and reporting information on such sensitive subjects.
UGC, University Grants Commission; DST, Department of Science and Technology; AICTE, All India Council for Technical Education; CSIR, Council of Scientific and Industrial Research.
[Reprinted from: Current Science, Vol.86, No.7, 10 April 2004, p.890.]
Nistads News, Vol.6, No.2, October 2004 16
Comparative evaluation of Indian physics research: Impact factor vs citations frequency S.M. Dhawan*and B.M. Gupta The research evaluation based on journal impact factor (IF) is sometimes misleading and not really objective1,2. This is more so because IF is a measure of the merit of the journal per se and not of its papers. Citation count is considered a more reliable indicator of a paper’s worth3. In this short study, the Indian papers in physics have been examined for their impact on the professional community, measured on two performance indicators – journal IF and citation frequency – with a view to bring out the gap in the two evaluations, if any. The study is important because journal IF is increasingly being applied in India for deciding appointments to academic and research positions, assessment promotions and pruning nominations for research awards. For this study, a sample set of 1101 research papers in physics, published by Indian authors in 1997, was collected from 29 high impact physics journals, having IF between 1 and 6.14. The bibliographic data of research papers as well as their citation data were taken from Web of Science for 1997. The citation data pertained to the period 1997 to July 2003. Most of the 1101 papers considered in this sample were collaborative in nature, involving multi institutions both from India and abroad. Among these, 902 papers had institutional affiliation of the first author to India, implying thereby that such works were of Indian origin. In the remaining 199 papers, the institutional affiliation of the first author was to countries abroad but had Indian participation, implying that such works had originated in laboratories abroad. Since the purpose of this study is to examine the disparity in the impact of research of Indian origin under two different parameters, the data analysis was confined to 902 papers as these were considered as works mainly of Indian origin. The journal IF data were collected from Journal Citation Reports, ISI, Philadelphia, USA for 1997. The average IF of 902 papers was 2.386. The high average
journal impact suggests that the papers under study are works of some merit. These 902 papers had received 6235 citations in six years since their publication in 1997. The average citation per paper is 6.91. There is a strong perception within the scientific community that papers published in high impact journals tend to receive high citation count and those reported in low impact journals would receive low citation. The two indicators of research evaluation are also considered as highly correlated, mainly because journal IF in any case, is derived from citation count. However, the data in this study reveal a different picture. The majority of papers (57%), though reported in high impact journals (IF ~ 3 to 6.14) received, contrary to expectations, low citation counts (between 0 and 7 per paper). The average citation per paper in this sample is 7. Any paper receiving 7 or less is presumed as a low citation paper. However, 20% papers received high counts between 31 and 81 per paper, though published in relatively lower impact journals (IF ~ 1 to < 2). Thirteen percent papers did not receive even a single citation in six years since their publication in 1997. 57% papers received citations between 1 and 7 per paper. As expected, only 29% papers received high citations between 8 and 81 per paper. Given the high IF of the journals reporting these papers (between 1 and 6.14) and their average IF (nearly 2.4), it is indeed surprising that 71% of these Indian papers in physics had received low citations, between 0 and 7 per paper. These facts only seek to highlight the point that citations to a paper do not depend upon journal IF, although journal IF does depend upon citations. Certainly, journal IF cannot be taken as the only indicator for measuring the quality of a research paper. It is more so because acts of citation only seek to underscore the theoretical and practical significance of a paper, or its intrinsic value for future research4. Citation count probably sounds a more accurate and objective indicator of research quality. Statistically also, the Pearson *Scientist, National Physical Laboratory, Dr. K.S. Krishnan
Marg, New Delhi 110 012
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correlation coefficient between journal IF and citation count computed on 902 records was low (0.21). The pockets of excellence in research seem to be confined to a select few papers and not to any larger set of papers. For example, only 10% papers accounted for 42% citations, 20% for 61% citations, 30% for 73% citations, and 50% for 89% citations (Figure 1). This observation further confirms the prevalence of a wide gap in research evaluation based on journal IF and citation frequency. The study finds that there is wide disparity in the evaluation of research measured on journal IF and citation count. As expected, research papers published in high impact journals failed to receive proportionately high citation, in six years since their publication in 1997. This trend was applicable to the bulk of Indian physics output considered in this study. Majority of such papers had their citation frequency below the average citation count for the whole sample. Nearly 13% papers did not receive even a single citation in six years since their publication. The disparity is because citations do not depend upon journal IF, although journal impact does depend upon citations. Citations depend mainly on the theoretical and practical significance of the research reported in the paper. Citation count seems a more reliable indicator of a paper’s worth than the journal IF. Evaluation based on journal IF can be sometimes misleading and hence not objective. These finding are based on a study of 902 papers published in 1997 by Indian authors in 29 high IF physics journals. Though specific to the field of physics, these findings have serious implications on current research evaluation practices followed in the country. Besides judging the quality dimension of research output, citation count is also a useful indicator for identifying pockets of
excellence in research. For example, in this study it is found that barely 10% of Indian physics papers had accounted for very high per cent of citations (42%). This has implications for rewarding merit. 1. Seglen, P.O. Br. Med. J., 1997, 314, 498–502. 2. Moed, H. F. and Van Leeuwen, T. N., Nature, 1996,
381, 186. 3. Balaram, P., Curr. Sci., 2000, 78, 1177–1178. 4. Sternberg, R. J. and Gordeeva, T., Psychol. Sci.,
1996, 8, 69–75. [Reprinted from: Current Science, Vol.86, No.9 10 May 2004, pp.1194-1195]
Nistads News, Vol.6, No.2, October 2004 18
Till science transcends the scientist: Role of human factor in science
Rajesh Kochhar
Most people would baulk at a phrase like 'literature (or music) and culture' on the ground that the first term is already contained in the second. But they would uncritically accept a construction like 'science and culture'. The reason probably is this. Like a poet or a painter, a scientist is also culturally anchored; but there is a difference. When scientists discover fundamental laws, uncover patterns in nature or establish linkages among seemingly disparate phenomena, they do so on behalf of the whole humanity. Their work in fact transcends even humanity in the sense that laws of nature as discovered on the earth will be recognized as such by scientists working elsewhere in the universe even though one cannot even imagine what the cultural setting of these extraterrestrial scientists would be.
In other disciplines, creative work remains the property of its creator. Science, however, aims to liberate itself from the scientist. For a scientific theory, hypothesis or model to become established, be accepted as received wisdom and treated as textbook material, its author's name must cease to be proprietory and become merely descriptive instead. Till such time as science transcends the scientist, human factors like values, judgements, foibles, idiosyncrasies, prejudices and biases play a role, but not afterwards.
It is notable that controversies in science are not settled by the contestants but by time. Timescales needed to establish theories are longer than those associated with individual scientists. At any point in time, science raises questions that cannot be answered by the scientists of the day. It is on such questions that scientists take positions. The issues are settled not because one set of scientists succeeds in convincing the other, but because new evidence accumulates and slowly the issues resolve themselves. The controversies however do serve. an important scientific function. They bring the issues into sharper focus and encourage further observations/ experiments.
An important question that needs to be addressed is this: When the existing evidence is not adequate to choose between two competing models or hypotheses, what are the arguments proffered by the adherents of each side in
support of their point of view, and how these arguments influence the future course of development. We can illustrate the above points with the help of some examples, drawn from astronomy and cosmology. In 1920 two leading astronomers of the day, Harlow Shapley and Heber D Curtis, participated in a 'great debate' on the scale of the universe. The debate raised a number of important questions: Was the galaxy bigger than hitherto assumed? Yes, Was the sun at the centre of our galaxy? No. Was our galaxy the only one in the universe, or were there others like it? [It was one among many].
"In the debate, both participants supported their conclusions with formidable arrays of observational data that they themselves had secured. Both had carefully scrutinized observations by others and checked their results. Written statements were prepared by both men and exchanged before the meeting. Each had made minor revisions after reading his opponent's views, but neither found it possible to accept the others principal conclusions."1 Significantly, "nor were other astronomers able to decide definitely between the two points of view."2 The debate provides "a glimpse into the reasoning processes of eminent scientists engaged in a great controversy for which the evidence on both sides is fragmentary and partly faulty. This debate illustrates forcefully how tricky it is to pick one's way through the treacherous ground that characterizes research in the frontiers of science."3 The scientific issues involved in the debate were resolved over a period of two decades when the frontiers of knowledge got progressively pushed further.
Three decades later there erupted another controversy, this time on the origin of the universe. Did the universe begin by exploding from a hot dense state ('big bang'), or was it without a beginning ('steady state'). (Interestingly, the now standard technical term big bang cosmology with the same initials as British Broadcasting Corporation, was coined rather pejoratively, in 1948, by Fred Hoyle.) The steady state model was finally proved wrong by the detection in 1965 of the three degree kelvin microwave background radiation, which proved that the universe was hotter in the past. While the controversy
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lasted, it brought into focus philosophical postulates (Was there need for a 'perfect cosmological principle'?) as well as questions of methodology (What constitutes Popperian testability in areas such as cosmology?). How do proponents of a theory respond to its rejection? Max Planck, the founder of quantum physics, held a rather extreme view. "An important scientific innovation rarely makes its way by gradually winning over and converting its opponents. What does happen is that its opponents gradually die out, and that the growing generation is familiarised with the ideas from the beginning."
While it is true that many propounders stick to their views till their physical or intellectual death, there are any number of examples where the proponents of a view have willingly abandoned it when new evidence to the contrary came along. In one respect however Planck was right, that is, about the growing generation. Even though attempts are still on to salvage steady-state model, the new generation of researchers is being brought up on the standard big-bang. (I was once told by an American academic that his pro-steady state proposal was turned down by funding agencies on the ground that younger generation should not be involved it. An otherwise well-respected American astronomer was refused telescope time for his non-standard observational programme, and moved over to Germany, a reversal of the historic scientific traffic.)
Human factor has played a role in the case of mathematical theories as well. Einstein himself intervened in his entirely self-consisted gravitational theory, erroneously called General Theory of Relativity (GTR), by introducing an arbitrary term to prevent the theory from permitting expansion of universe which he thought was unphysical. Once the universe was observationally shown to, be expanding, sensibly the theory was left alone to speak for itself. The Nazi attempts to brand GTR as Jewish science were short-lived, for two reasons. First, the well-known failure of Newtonian gravitation to explain Mercury's orbit had already created a slot for an improved theory, even if nobody had any clue as to what the new theory would look like. More importantly, within four years of its enunciation, a prediction by GTR (bending of starlight by sun) was experimentally verified.
Einstein was fortunate that the verifiability of his theory was within the capabilities of the technology of the day. Subramanya Chandrasekhar was not so lucky. He was the first to apply Theory of Special Relativity to
problems of stellar evolution. His mathematically rigorous work on the white dwarf stars, which essentially predicted the existence of black holes, was ridiculed by Sir Arthur Eddington, the then most influential astronomer in Europe. With a haughtiness one associates with Viceroys rather than scientists, he declared: "I think there should be a law of nature to prevent a star from behaving in this absurd manner." Sir Arthur was blinded by his self-righteousness; the others by the glare of his personality.4 It was not that one hypothesis was competing with another. It was an exact mathematical theory that was pitted against refusal to listen. Eventually, the discovery of the pulsar stars and quasar galaxies vindicated Chandrasekhar. Interestingly, though Chandrasekhar won a number of academic awards for his subsequent researches, it was only in 1974 that an award citation referred to his pathbreaking white dwarf work. Eddington's prejudice had delayed the development of relativistic astrophysics by forty years! Ironically, a film on white dwarfs recently made by BBC was titled 'Absurd Stars' and showed a photograph of Sir Arthur rather than Chandrasekhar, making light of the former's prejudice. Therefore, the journey of a scientific theory from its enunciation till its enshrinement in textbooks is often a long one. It is in the interim period that human factors come into play. Notes 1. Struve, O. and Zebergs, V. 1962. Astronomy of the 20th
Century. New York: Macnultan. p. 416. 2. Ibid. p. 444. 3. Shu, F. 1982, The Physical Universe. An Introduction to
Astronomy. Mill Valley: University Science Books.p.286. 4. Struve and Zebergs. Bibliography 1. Kochhar, Rajesh. 1995. 'Transcending the Limits:
Chandrasekhar's Stellar Contribution". Times of India,19 October.
2. Shu, F. 1982. The Physical Universe. An Introduction to Astronomy. Mill Valley: University Science Books.
3. Struve, O. and Zebergs, V. 1962. Astronomy of the 2Oh Century. New York: Macnultan.
[Reprinted from the book: History of Science, Philosophy and Culture in Indian Civilization, Vol.XI Part I (ed. D.P. Chattopadhyaya). New Delhi: Centre for Studies in Civilization, 2004, pp.249-251.]
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History as Half-truth: NCERT book distorts facts, discards logic Rajesh Kochhar The NCERT's class XI textbook on ancient India, first published in 2002, throws more light on contemporary India's prejudices than on ancient India's history. Upto class X, history is seen as an unavoidable nuisance. But students who take it in class XI do so by choice. If some of them plan to pursue an academic career in history, this book is unlikely to equip them for the task. Normally, a textbook provides a thorough grounding in established scholarship on the subject and then moves on to draw attention to problems that remain to be solved. This book goes the opposite way. It gives short shrift to well-known facts and makes no clear distinction between what is known and what is presumed. It creates a pseudo-scholarly atmosphere in which debatable and discredited hypotheses are given a veneer of academic respectability. The book is guilty of intellectual abuse of children.
The book wrongly states that the four Vedas "are entirely in a different language, which can be called the Vedic languages". This is true of only the Rigveda, whose language is closer to that of the Zoroastrian sacred text Avesta than the other Vedas. By the time of Yaska (c. 500 BC) parts of Rigveda had already become obscure. Throughout the book, the author uses the term Rigvedic India when he essentially means (post-Rigvedic) Vedic India. Significantly, no notice is taken of the existence of an Indo-European family of languages. Rigvedic geography is treated equally carelessly. According to the book, the Rigveda mentions the "Mujavant mountain in the north". This is wrong. The Rigveda refers to Soma as Maujavata, "coming from the Mujavant". It is presumed that Mujavant is a mountain. Where it stood is anybody's guess. It is noteworthy that both Atharvaveda and Yajurveda refer to Mujavant people living far away. When was the Rigveda composed? Max Mueller's low date of 1200-1000 BC is quoted. At the same time it is pointed out "in passing" but twice that Max Mueller as a true Christian believed in the genesis stories of the Bible and that the world was created in 4004 BC. (Why blame poor Max Mueller when even the greatest of all scientists, Isaac Newton, also shared this belief.)
The book makes a half-hearted attempt to quote hardcore evidence in support of an older Rigvedic chronology. Mention of the Vedic gods Indra, Varuna, Mitra and the two Nasatyas in Boghaz-Koi (Asia Minor) inscriptions of 1400 BC is taken to "prove that Rigveda must have come into existence much before that date". (How much before: 100, 1,000 or 5,000 years?) The line of reasoning is unsound. The Rigveda could as well have been under composition when some people moved westwards to enter the inscriptions. More strictly, Rigvedic mythology could be older than the Rigveda. Boghaz-Koi could have involved Indic dialect-speaking tribes who shared mythology but otherwise did not participate in composition of hymns.
An eminent quoted name in support of older chronology is Bal Gangadhar Tilak who dated the Rigveda to 6000 BC "on astronomical grounds". True, but on these very grounds he also made North Pole the original home of the Aryans. The book conveniently ignores this.
The book states blandly "there is no archaeological or biological evidence which could establish the arrival of any new people from outside between 500 BC and 800 BC". If this assertion be true, then it must rank as the most significant conclusion ever drawn about ancient India. Such an important conclusion should have been discussed at length in a full chapter, rather than curtly summed up in a sentence. Also, due credit should have been given to its authors. How is the arrival of new people expected to manifest itself in archaeological or biological evidence? Does the biological evidence pertain to skulls and bones or to DNA?
It is now known that agriculture began in Baluchistan at about the same time as in Iraq, eastern Turkey and Palestine. The book states rather tamely that "habitation here (in Mehrgarh) began in about 7000 BC but in the early period no use of ceramic in seen". It is as if late introduction of ceramic is more significant than introduction of farming in Mehrgarh. The author seems to be afraid of recognising the full significance of Mehrgarh. Who were these people? How are they related to the
Nistads News, Vol.6, No.2, October 2004 21
composers of the Vedas? Significantly, no horse bones have been found at Mehrgarh at any chronological level. This is significant because the Vedic people are inseparable from the cult of horse. A textbook should be factually correct, be intellectually rigorous, encourage free thought and, of course, be student-friendly. Each sentence of the book even if taken out of context should be capable of withstanding closest scrutiny.
A textbook should be prepared at two levels. The master manuscript should be heavily annotated. Each substantial statement in it should be referenced so that
expert pre-reviewers can cross-check it and ensure that loose unsubstantiated or plainly illiterate statements do not vitiate the book. Once the manuscript is approved, all or most of the annotation can be deleted for ease of reading. Annotated text may be put on the Internet for the benefit of more serious students. The NCERT and textbook writers will do well to keep in mind an old proverb: "When you feed somebody almonds, they remember only the bitter ones". [Source: Times of India, 10 August 2004]
completed my studies at the Indian Institute of Technology and then the Indian Institute of Management, one after the other – which meant I had no work experience before my management degree. I still remember an incident
during my summer training at a leading confectionery company. My job was to improve the output of a lollipop machine. This was a highly technical matter since the machine has 200 moving parts. Curiously, this is when I discovered the true worth a of building relationships: The machine could wrap 200 lollipops in a minute, but it was - wrapping only 100. My job was to ensure that the machine doubled productivity. I was in the Pune plant and was trying to work through all the drawings and understand what had gone wrong, which parts had to be replaced and so on. When I had worked for a week in the night shift, I met the shift supervisor at the workers canteen. We got talking. He told me about how he had three daughters, one of whom was soon to be married. He had been expecting a salary hike, which he did not get. Because of this, he was under tremendous stress. We spoke for two hours. When I told him about this lollipop project, he said, “I can fix this problem in two days. I've worked in this plant for 12 years; till date, no officer ever accompanied me to the workers' canteen.” And he did make the machine work. [Excerpted from ‘There’s more to life than a structured course’ by Chetan Bhagat, Business Standard, 25 May 2004]
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The Vedic void: Understanding the past through science Rajesh Kochhar Did the Vedic people come from outside, or were they the founders of the Harappan civilisation? The question may not much excite the detached professional historian, but has in recent years got implicated in the contemporary politico-ideological controversies. Construction of India's ancient past is beset with inherent difficulties. Vedic texts are not gazetteers of their times. Geographical location and chronology are modern questions that we are trying to transport into the remote past. Sacred literary texts can provide some incidental clues but they cannot furnish a connected account.
Vedic texts were memorised and passed on from generation to generation through word of mouth. They thus represent a tradition transmitted through the living. Archaeology, on the other hand, deals with the dead. In the absence of an unequivocal and universally acceptable decipherment of the Harappan script (assuming it is a script), any correlation between the Vedic and the Harappan can only be indirect. While scholars may assiduously sift through the mass of circumstantial evidence, new ground needs to be broken for the benefit of specialists and laypersons alike, especially of the passionate kind.
The key to ancient India lies in the Ghaggar river system sandwiched between the majestic snow-fed river systems of Indus to the west and Ganga to the east. The Ghaggar system consists of, from west to east, the rivers Wah, Ghaggar, Dangri, Markanda, Sarsuti and Chautang. The de-Sanskritised name Sarsuti is advisedly used in place of Saraswati to avoid confusion with the celebrated Rigvedic river. These rivers are formed by a junction of small rivers in the lowly hills of the Shivaliks. The Ghaggar system acts as rainwater drainage for the Shivaliks. The water collected is, however, not sufficient to flow down to the sea, some 1,400 km away. The Ghaggar loses its way in the Thar desert.
There are sufficient reasons to believe that Ghaggar led a far more dignified existence in the past. Actual field work done more than a 100 years ago, fortified with more recent satellite imagery, has shown that at one time Satluj and Yamuna flowed into Ghaggar. It is surmised that at
some epoch in the past there were environmental and geological changes which diverted Satluj westwards and Yamuna eastwards. Between Ghaggar and the present-day Satluj, there are a number of braids which probably are a result of the upheaval.
Yamuna's shifting seems to have taken place in well-recognised stages. In fact, Sarsuti and Chautang flow in old channels abandoned by Yamuna. It should be kept in mind that satellite imagery provides a wide-angle snapshot of the region. It tells us about the old channels of rivers but cannot tell us when these channels were abandoned.
Is the Rigvedic Saraswati to be identified with the Old Ghaggar? Waters from Satluj and Yamuna would have made lower Ghaggar a mighty river but in its upper reaches it would still be as inconsequential as it is today. It is noteworthy that the Rigvedic hymn (3.33) explicitly associates Beas with Satluj. Also, Mahabharata Adipawan (167.8) narrates a legend that when Rishi Vasishtha threw himself into Satluj with a view to committing suicide, the river broke into a hundred channels. One wonders whether the dry channels were already in existence and woven into the legend.
Literary references can only be suggestive; they cannot provide definitive proof. The best way to answer the above question would be to conduct rigorous scientific experiments to determine the hydrological history of the Ghaggar system and the neighbouring dry channels. It should be possible to determine with reasonable accuracy the epoch(s) when Satluj and Yamuna moved away from lower Ghaggar and when the latter reached its present pitiable state. If it turns out that Satluj and Yamuna ditched Ghaggar, say 10 millennia ago, Ghaggar would automatically be ruled out as a Saraswati candidate.
The much-maligned Indian caste system has become a powerful scientific tool in this era of new biology. Caste is defined by endogamy: Members of a caste group tend to marry among themselves. It has indeed become possible to identify genetic markers characterising different endogamous groups and determine the
Nistads News, Vol.6, No.2, October 2004 23
"distance" between them. The Parsi community (whose sacred book Avesta is closely related to Rigveda) migrated into India some 1,500 years ago and has remained strictly endogamous. (As an aside, it may be remarked that it is the only "species" that is planning its own extinction.) Parsi genetic markers should be compared with corresponding markers from Pathans and Baluches as well as from Kashmiri Pandits (who have till recently remained geographically isolated), Iyengar Brahmins from Tamil Nadu and Namboodri Brahmins from Kerala. The exercise is expected to be quite rewarding. If Parsis turn out to be extremely closely
related to, say Pathans, then the case for the Aryan arrival from the north-west would be strengthened.
Reconstruction of the past is an important part of the exercise of nation building. A nation's heritage should be based on hard, scientifically tested, facts and not on vague notions born out of cultivated ignorance. History is not the mythology of the dead. A nation should be able to look at its past straight in the eye. Only then can it cope with the present and plan for the future.
If the torch of history is to illuminate, it must obtain new batteries from science. As things stand, the torch can only be used to hit one another on the head. [Source: The Times of India Online, 17 July 2004]
Where to focus In “They also grow who stand and serve”(October 1), TCA Srinivasa Raghavan argues that “the world can't support two Chinas in manufacturing. India will have to become to global services what China is to global manufacturing - cheap, plentiful and of acceptable quality.” This is an oversimplification. Let us first distinguish between “rising” and “flat” technologies. A rising technology is one that is currently in a rapid phase of development, while a flat technology is more or less standardised. Obviously, a rising technology today is flat tomorrow. The US tends to drive its economy through rising technologies of the day, parcelling out manufacturing based on flat technology down the line to lesser countries.
Within flat we can distinguish between high-skill upper-end and low-skill lower-end technologies. While in the globalised world China occupies the low-skill-requiring manufacturing slot, India should aim at becoming the world center for manufacturing based on upper-end flat technologies. The services sector is a welcome addition to the Indian economy. Let it grow. But in the final analysis. India's destiny lies in manufacturing and not in services. (Source: Business Standard, 5 October 2004)
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S&T archives: Indian perspective Rammi Kapoor Introduction Archives are essentially primary records not generally created for the purposes of public dissemination. Primarily archival records are public and private collections and once preserved, they become archival wealth of the nation, which reflects not only the growth and functioning of the governments but also the development of a nation as well of the individual. Public records are gathered, preserved and rendered accessible for the critical investigation and scrutiny. Old or apparently insignificant records are also important as they also provide some information of earlier times. Archival information is an important national resource. It preserves information of enduring value for retrospection on various aspects that are central to humanistic studies rather than for scientific and technological research [1,2].
Information on science and technology (S&T) has increased tremendously over the past three decades. Historical documents on scientific and technological institutions and the collection of private papers of eminent scientists creates wide information resource base for research on history of science. It also provides information on science history of India as well of other countries. Though there has been no concerted effort to preserve this information for the use of the future generation. The purpose of archiving is preserving information as well as enabling access to information on S&T institutions. Industries have to keep pace with the faster growing trends in developing countries, for the benefit of the researchers and policy makers. Information on S&T archives in India The archival task begins with identification and meticulous selection of information on S&T that has to be preserved. For this it is necessary to have an interactive relationship between those who produce records and those who archive it. The loss of such information may have enormous impact on future scientific endeavor along with broader cultural, legal and financial ramifications. The preservation of information has to be at all levels of society, from the individual, family, and corporate and
government, to the broad national and international levels. The setting up of S&T archives is an attempt to establish a link amongst the creators, caretakers and users of such knowledge. It is useful to have common guidelines for S&T information, which can accommodate the multidisciplinary dimension of it. It takes into account the diversity in technologies as well as provides procedures for identifying qualitative information. It facilitates accessibility, and also provides methods for selecting useful information for archiving. It helps in having access to valuable source of information. These attempts have helped in developing and improving archival practices in India. It has enhanced the interaction between S&T archives and scientific institutions in different states and union territory and has also encouraged the collection and preservation of private papers of the eminent scientist’s contribution for the nation. The information leftover from the past, which remains as assets that help the study of the archival records are certain to facilitate exploration, discovery and development of these neglected informational resources. Though most of the records are in English and scattered in the archival institutions all over India, There are certain records in French, Dutch and Portuguese other than vernacular records. This S&T archival collection has brought into focus the interaction of scientific and technological activities with political, social and cultural aspects, with a historic perspective. Moreover some studies in history of science during the colonial rule have brought out the impact of the British economic and political objectives in development and organization of science in different fields and areas. The records related to the British period have information on S&T that gives a clear picture of the policies and development plans of the government at that time. There is abundant information available on various S&T fields e.g., flora and fauna; agricultural and veterinary; forestry and fisheries; meteorology and geology; telecommunication; Transport and navigation; Industrial development; and health sciences. All this information has been available in the records of National Archives of India and in the state
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Union territory archival institutions, in the form of manuscripts, correspondence, reports, manuals, journals, leaflets, resolutions etc. These have been preserved and prepared for the users to have easy access to the information. The colonial empire has done great work by preserving the useful archival material [3]. Role of Nistads In India, National Institute of Science Technology and Development Studies, one of the constituent organizations of Council of Scientific and Industrial Research (CSIR), has created an archival information system on S&T in 1983 and started the project titled STAR (Scientific and Technological Archival Resources). It was first of its kind in any of the third world countries. The main aim of the project was to scan the relevant scientific and technological information available in different archival sources and then to disseminate sources for the posterity and placed under one roof for the benefit of researchers, policy makers and for the planners who would be able to extract the requisite information. The institute has also brought out a publication on Scientific and Technological Reports of the Raj. The bibliography of the reports contains 438 reports spread over a little more than a century, from 1842 to 1947 and covers mostly the British India and the Princely States. These reports are found along with the processed material of two Delhi based repositories viz., National Archives of India and Central Secretariat Library. Archival collection of information on S&T was first of its kind and made the access on S&T information for researchers an easy task. The historical information on science and technology is made available in one location, which helps researchers to make a comparative analysis with day situation. The sources of National Archives of India and Various State/Union Territory Archives have maintains a fairly large collection of oriental manuscript dealing mostly with literary, religious, medicinal, astrological and similar topics but they hardly have something on S&T with a historic perspective. This exercise was first of its kind more than 20,000 references were collected pertaining to the S&T from the different archival sources for the policy makers and for the history of science researchers. The listed information has been collected from the indices of the respected archival sources and random survey of the scanned information has been done for the Revenue and Agriculture Department. It was found that sixty percent of the listed information is available. In the beginning, NISTADS has also taken the initiative for the
maintenance and preservation of the S&T records lying in the constituent laboratories of CSIR. The team initiated some work relating to setting up of archival record-room; it addresses a full range of archival functions and provides detailed models for archival function. It is applicable for all long term archives and those laboratories and CSIR dealing with information that may need long term preservation on in the constituent laboratory and also got positive response from some of laboratories, but the efforts could not last long. During the 57th session in 2001 of Indian Historical Records Commission held in Mysore to resolve “Whether the National Archives of India should launch a vigorous drive to take over records of permanent value lying with the certain ministries” including the Ministry of Science & Technology. Efforts are being made to transfer records to National Archives of India.
To coordinate S&T archival activities in the country with a view to streamline the archival practices, S&T information whether in public or private custody should be declared as material of national importance and certain guidelines are to be laid down for the proper acquisition, arrangement, disposition and access of records, for purposes of the researchers. There are other scientific institutions in the country who should also take initiative in keeping these important papers of the national interest of individuals, available in the form of correspondence, audio-visuals, photographs, journals, leaflets, project reports, interviews, documentaries etc [4-7]. Private archival information There are Eminent Indian Scientists whose personal papers is the main focus of research. Private Papers are those, which reflect the activities of the individual, families and institutions. These records throw light on individual personalities and his or her contribution in socio-cultural, economic, political or scientific development of the nation. During last few decades, the historians have increasingly realized the value of private archives as source material for study of history and other important fields for research. In India there has been growing demand from researchers for such papers. These records reflect on government, business and other aspects during a particular period that help to explain subtle influences that might have been responsible in influencing government policies on important national issues. Personal archives of prominent personalities for example freedom fighters, national leaders, politicians, economists, and scientists, artists and also important papers of others,
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having important contribution in the field. Private archives may also be found elsewhere in the form of personal correspondence, photographs, typescript of papers, books, early drafts of the papers, diaries and laboratories notes, journals, correspondence of scientists with non scientists, newspaper clippings and audio-visual of reports or movies or radio and T.V. interviews and biography of eminent-scientists. There are certain archival institutions and libraries in India to procure private collection of the personalities in different disciplines and areas has a rich collection of such correspondence are acquire through mainly donations, gifts, purchase and deposit there are certain libraries are acquiring the private correspondence of the prominent personalities.
National Archives of India has a rich collection of private papers mostly of freedom fighters and politicians. It has also a collection of papers of the then Director of Council of Scientific and Industrial Research (as the post later became Director General) Sir Shanti Swaroop Bhatnagar. NISTADS has also collected Bhatnagar's correspondence with A. V. Hill from Tata Institute of Fundamental Research. Selected work of Homi Jehangir Bhabha was procured through various sources and audio visual on Life and works of Homi Jehangir Bhabha has been prepared [8].
A bulk of information of private papers in National Archives of India has, however been acquired through donation. There has been growing consciousness in India in this regard for need to preserve the past of their
organization and to keep the useful information whether it belongs public, private, religious, family; or relating to business institutions. Some examples can be Shah & Wallace, Tata Steel, Shriram Institute and also certain public sector banks. National Archives of India should keep the documents of the scientific departments and institutions but also track the scientific personalities with the consultation of the concerned organization. Such platform should be setup for the scientific community to popularize archival utility. References 1. Report of the Management Committee (1976), National
Archives of India, New Delhi, June. 2. Schellenburg, T.R. (1956), Modem Archives principle and
techniques, The University of Chicago Press. 3. Tirmizi, S.A.I. (1983), Guide to the records relating to
science and technology: A RAMP study, National Archives of India, New Delhi.
4. Kapoor, Rammi; Singh, Surjeet (1989), Towards An S&T Archives: A Review, Technical report, Nistads, New Delhi.
5. Indian Historical Records Commission (2001), Proceedings of the 57th session, Mysore, February.
6. Rahman A.; Tirmizi, S.A.I., (1984) Scientific and Technological Repots of the Raj, Nistads, New Delhi.
7. Report of the committee on Archival legislation (1960), National Archives of India, New Delhi
8. Tirmizi, S.A.I. (1988) S.S.Bhatnagar Institution Builder, Nistads, New Delhi.
There is something fascinating about science. One gets such wholesale returns of conjecture out of such a trifling investment of fact.
— Mark Twain (1835 - 1910)
Nistads News, Vol.6, No.2, October 2004 27
Manu
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28
Counterfeiting cars in China facturers step up countermeasures worldwide
By Joann Muller
y of life in China that people are surprised when a movie, softwareag bought there is not ripped off. Now you can add, to the list of
passenger cars. Months before General Motors began selling its $7,500China in December, a $6,000 knockoff version, the Chery QQ, with theend but missing some subtle details (like an airbag), was cruising Chinesealling: The manufacturer of the pirated version was partially owned byss partner. usually just of parts--is driving carmakers crazy in China. Replacementeadlamps, batteries, brake pads, fan belts, windshields and spark plugs, logos, are turning up all over the world, including the U.S. The carmakers
e. GM says it has come across brake linings made of wood chips andld burst into flames with heavy use and coolant that can eat through aours. Also very much at stake: profit margins. Replacement parts are tot popcorn is to movie theaters. It's how they pay the rent. s counterfeiting costs it $2 billion a year in sales. Counterfeiters are usingto duplicate trademark labels and slap them on fake goods, says Ed C. Ford's global brand protection program. Ford recently raided a Chineseup 7,000 sets of counterfeit brake pads destined for Egypt, each stampedrd's blue oval. A legitimate set of pads for a Ford Taurus would cost theEgypt; the phony ones might go for $30. are stepping up their countermeasures worldwide. GM says it ising like 400 counterfeiting schemes and seized or destroyed $180 million
goods. But counterfeiters just move and reopen elsewhere, says Philip F. of GM China. What about jail sentences? In Taiwan, says Ford's Wetter, sentenced to prison can reduce their terms for $30 per day. Lawsuits?ime. Toyota recently lost a closely watched case in China against anufacturer whose brand logo was nearly identical to Toyota's. s kind of practice in China is condemning China to remain anuntry," fumes Nissan Chief Executive Carlos Ghosn. the bad guys is tricky, given that the bad guys are often tight with thehe government is a business partner you don't want to offend. GM'se Spark probably had its roots in Korea, shortly before GM and other
e assets of bankrupt Daewoo Motors in October 2002. The Spark is aoo Matiz. One of GM's co-investors in Daewoo is Shanghai Automotive
ghai Autoalso happened to own a 20% stake in SAIC-Chery Automobilevernment-sponsored company that began producing cars in 2001. It iso insiders sold the design specifications for the Matiz to Chery engineers
M was final. did not storm off to court about the fake car. Instead, they are in a government officials. sn.com/id/4131724/, ET Feb. 01, 2004)
Nistads News, Vol.6, No.2, October 2004
RESEARCH HIGHLIGHTS Policy development to support agro-biodiversity in hills of Uttaranchal: Interim progress Sponsored by: Shashtri Indo-Canadian Institute, New Delhi Mohammad Rais The Shashtri applied research project (SHARP) on policy development to support agro-biodiversity in hills of Uttaranchal has been progressing as per scheduled milestones. Two case studies covering various aspects of agro-biodiversity policy issues are in progress. The study area for fieldwork in Kumaon is Traikhet block of Almora district and in Grawal, Ukhimath block of Rudraprayag district. We have established strong collaborative linkages with the local line departments (Block Development Officer and Divisional Forest Officer), major institutions in Uttaranchal (Kumaon University, Garhwal University, G.B. Pant Institute of Himalayan Environment and Development) and other Uttaranchal Govt. departments (Directorate of Watershed Development, Diversified Agriculture Support Programme, Dehradun, Uttaranchal Organic Commodity Board. Several meetings and extensive discussions have been conducted with these institutions during the course of the project.
As a precursor to field work, considerable emphasis has been put on informal discussions with the local communities in the selected villages. These are seen as essential prior to more formal collection of specific data. Such discussions took place during the two major field trips and were carried out on a one to one basis as well as in a group format. The discussions were very fruitful with many people coming forward to willingly share their experinces. Different methodologies were used in group discussions including meeting with farmers, mixed male and female groups, old-age groups, landholders, landless people etc.
Further, we developed the data collection protocol in consultation with other co-investigators. A comprehensive questionnaire was designed; it was tested in pilot survey and then improved and finalized for the main survey. Based on defined criteria total 28 villages have been selected for survey in Tarikhet block (Almora). In these 28 villages, 344 families (241 General families, 103 SC families) have been selected. Currently survey is
in progress in Tarikhet block and about 300 families have been surveyed. After completing Tarikhet survey, Ukhimath (Rudraprayag) survey will be taken up. Three girl students (M.Sc.) from Kumaun University are providing support for data collection.
Ch
allenges of managing steep slopin Tarikhet (Almora)
e
An old lady in Ukhimath (Rudraprayag) showing traditional variety of wheat
Nistads News, Vol.6, No.2, October 2004 29
Nistads News, Vol.6, No.2, October 2004 30
The State owned enterprises in Vietnam � Problems and prospects Vu Ngoc Yen* The executive summary The research project carried out at NISTADS under the Indo-Vietnamese bilateral S&T programme. The main purpose of this project has been to understand the role of state owned enterprises (SOEs) in Vietnam’s economy. An attempt has been made to present SOEs in the context of the economic reform phase that has been taking place in Vietnam since the 1980’s. Since 1986 there is a marked shift from state controlled economy to a market driven (both global and domestic) economy. The transformation process involves various factors that are external as well as internal to Vietnam’s economy. This shift has direct bearing on the transformation process in the SOEs as well.
Vietnam is a country in transition. Its economy is undergoing rapid change as it moves away from non-market centrally planned economy to a market economy. The state ownership resulted in SOEs accounting for large government investments and formed the administrative instrument of the state. They wielded the political power.
In the wake of recent transition from agricultural economy to an industrial economy, the competitive elements among diversified economic sectors, have increased both regionally and globally. Major disadvantages of SOEs that were exposed, to competition include: lack of capital, out of date technology, weak management, overstaffing, debt crisis, etc. These disadvantages have caused low productivity, inefficiency, and inability to compete in the regional and global markets. The decisive role of SOEs over the economy, thus, is restricted. Therefore, reforms of poorly performing SOEs is on priority as they have pivotal role to play in both industrial and social sectors in Vietnam and other transition countries.
In order to meet the above-mentioned objectives, this report is organised in four sections. The first section begins with an introduction on issues related with the global problem in transition economy, the rationale and the purpose of this study. The second section reviews the main characteristics of SOEs in transition economies in general and in Vietnam in particular. The third section
discusses issues and development strategies for the reform process in the transition economies in general and the recent developments in Vietnam in this direction, in particular. The reform processes discussed include changes required in the country’s business and regulatory environment, which is external to the SOEs, as well as those required in the internal management or governance of the SOE itself. The fourth section ” summarises the most recent developments that have taken place in the direction of SOE reforms in Vietnam. It also places these developments in the broader context of experiences from similar experiences in other transition economies and offers suggestions for the future paths that the Vietnamese policy makers and the CEOs of the SOE may adopt for greater economic efficiency in the country.
Section 1 on “Vietnam: A transition economy” presents certain distinctive features of the centrally planned or socialist economy, the capitalist economy, and the communist economy. It reviews the political and economic situation in many transition economies including those in Central and Eastern Europe, China, and Vietnam. It takes a special look at those emerging market economies that are making a transition from centrally planned economy under the erstwhile Union of Soviet Socialist Republics (USSR) to a market economy. It shows how central planning grew out of the communist revolutions that were induced by the Marxist criticism of market economies. Problems of inefficiency, slow economic growth, slow rate of technological development, high rates of inflation, unemployment, low per capita income, environmental pollution, etc., in these transition countries have been brought out.
It examines the aims of market reforms, alternative approaches to reform and the experience of several economies during the transition. Important lessons to be learnt from the experience of those countries that tried central planning during the twentieth century include: a. Some of the Central and Eastern European countries,
which possessed good preconditions for reforming their economies such as private land ownership and more liberal economic system and also a relatively shorter experience of living under communism, had less problems in liberalizing their economies; *Executive, Vietnam Airlines Corporation, Ha Noi, Vietnam
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b. The dissolution of the Soviet Union left a vacuum of effective power since local republican governments were not ready to overtake the functions of central government bodies;
c. The economies of the countries under Soviet Union were based on the so-called geographical division of labour that made them economically highly interdependent. Erection of the state borders and considerable shifts in the relative price structure brought the intra-regional trade down. Central and Eastern European countries possessed several considerable advantages compared with the reform countries in the former Soviet Union and most of them also reformed their economies earlier.
After the reunification of Vietnam in 1975, a model socialist economic regime was launched with state ownership of the production in the manufacturing as well as the farm sectors. However, the country plunged into recession, hyperinflation, heavy external debt, famine, and compulsion to import rice, cloth, etc. After this severe economic crisis the government in 1989 launched Doi Moi - a comprehensive program of external and domestic reforms that placed their country squarely on the road to a more market-oriented economy.
The section details out the importance of SOEs in developing economies. SOEs are necessary to facilitate the government to carry out the macro economic objectives. Their role especially in the social sector where the private sector do not necessarily venture into, like health care, education, etc. makes it possible for evolving a balanced and comprehensive economy.
Section 2 on “State-owned enterprises in Vietnam – An overview”. Over the past two decades, SOEs have not performed as well as was expected, especially, in relation to the fast growing market economy. After opening up of the economies in these countries, the shortcomings of the SOEs were exposed. Generally, SOEs were inefficient and made heavy losses and they increasingly became a burden on the government budgets. Reasons for their inefficiency were that: (a) The SOEs were burdened with more responsibilities which they could not fulfill; (b) Lack of funds with the governments hampered their technological improvement and hence their competitiveness; (c) With practically all controls resting with the government ministries, etc., the management did not have any autonomy, incentive, or motivation for bringing about efficiency; (d) The enterprises were overstaffed which contributed to inefficiency and losses.
The SOEs were also making huge losses, which at national levels amounted to significant fractions of the gross domestic product (GDP). The losses were made part of the state budgets and therefore led to inflation and dependency on foreign aid. The losses stemmed not only from inefficiency, but also because (a) SOEs held monopoly markets, had no incentive for productive efficiency, and, where there was a competition with the private sector, the prices of goods were set below the profitability margins; and (b) the credit to SOEs was extended at practically negative interest rates, not based on profitability considerations, and without obligation for debt servicing. SOEs in transition economies were therefore no longer engines of economic growth that they were considered at the time of their establishment. In the case of Vietnam, the status of SOE performance may be studied in two distinct phases: Pre-restructuring phase (that is, before 1986) and the post-restructuring phase (after 1986). The North Vietnam had nationalized all its enterprises since 1954. After the unification in 1975, a Soviet economic model was sought to be established in Vietnam. All farms, land, and enterprises providing goods and services were nationalized. The SOEs came into existence both through their creation and through nationalization of private enterprises. In 1976, 21.4% and 10.5%, respectively, of the total investment in Vietnam was on heavy and light SOEs. In 1980, these figures respectively were 29.7% and 11.5%. The rapid growth of industrial production in the first five year plan masked the inefficiency and foreign-aid dependency of the SOEs. The SOEs were mere production units, with their planning, target setting, sourcing of inputs, disposing of output, price setting, etc., all determined by the heavily bureaucratic control structure above in the government. The system was not responsive to changes in the global, regional or national market demands. The second five year plan was a miserable failure since none of the targets set for the SOEs were fulfilled.
The economic restructuring phase started in Vietnam after December 1986 when the Communist Party of Vietnam announced at its VI National Congress that it was going to adopt a market oriented economy. To improve the efficiency of the SOEs, the autonomy of their management was restored to a large extent. They were free to formulate their long-, medium-, and short-term plans, although within the socio-economic guidelines set by the government. Their profits were now calculated based on actual costs and prices (with exceptions for
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certain goods) were set by the market mechanism. After certain obligatory payments to the government, the profits were retained by the SOEs. However, due to competition with the private sector, the total SOEs’ output in 1989 fell by 2.5% over that of 1988 and 38% of them were still making losses. Between November 1991, when a decree on dissolution and merger of unviable SOEs was issued, and April 1994 the number of total and manufacturing SOEs fell from 12,297 and 2599 to 6264 and 2062, respectively.
In 1995 a Law on SOEs was passed in Vietnam. All SOEs now have a legal status. The management now has complete freedom to decide upon: what and how much to produce,, sources of the inputs, sale of goods, partnerships with private and foreign companies, hiring and firing of employees, and managing fixed capital (with the rider to preserve and develop it) and the profit-after-tax. However, government still retains the right to dissolve the SOE, appoint Chairmen and Directors.
This shift had an overall positive impact on the economy of Vietnam. However, due to increasing competition from the private sector and foreign companies and due to the Asian economic crisis in 1997, 60% of the SOEs were still not economically viable. In 1999, the expenditure incurred by the Vietnamese government on financing of SOEs was about 8000 billion Vietnamese Dong (bVND), on writing- off bad debt was 1088 bVND, and on exemption from paying taxes was 2288 bVND. In September 1999, the Vietnam government passed a decree on sale, contracting out and leasing of small SOEs. It planned to reduce the total number of SOEs to 3000 by the year 2003 and to 2000 by 2005.
Any reform must keep in mind the basic purpose for which an SOE was established. It could be a combination of: several objectives like, building national infrastructure, self-sufficiency in basic goods, promoting employment and reducing mass poverty, and enhancing national economic development, capital and revenues. Thus keeping the broad objective of the SOE in mind and examining the efficiency and effectiveness with which it is achieving the purposes, one or more of reform options may be adopted. These options include: privatization of ownership, reforming the regulatory and economic environment to offer incentives for efficiency, organizational restructuring and operations of the SOE and adopting professional or corporate governance standards, privatization of part of the operations, or liquidation.
Adoption of any set of reforms has invariably economic, social and legal implications. In this context, learning from the experiences of other transitional economies that have brought about reforms in respect of SOEs would be very useful.
Section 3 on “Transformation process in state-owned enterprises: Reform options and the Vietnam case”. The external reforms reviewed, based on the lessons learned from the experiences of transition economies in Eastern Europe, China, Korea, etc., mainly include measures for promoting competition, improving the business environment, imposing hard budget constraints on the SOEs, and building conducive regulatory framework and institutions which encourage private domestic and foreign investment and fair competition.
In order to promote competition, reshaping and restructuring of the industrial structure need to be accomplished through legal and institutional reforms, some of which include: (a) eliminating entry barrier for new firms, (b) demonopolizing state enterprises through divestiture in competitive operations of the monopolistic SOEs, (c) breaking up the highly concentrated economic powers by privatization, (d) adopting competition and anti-monopoly legislation, (e) establishing competition agencies, and (f) preventing anti-competitive behaviour by government agencies, etc.
Soft budget constraints (in the form of fiscal subsidy, soft taxation, soft credit, wage arrears, etc. ― that bailed out loss-making SOEs) were widely maintained for the SOEs in the pre-transition command economies. Hard budget constraints ― that is, creating legal provisions that ensures that loss-making SOEs are unable to continue to operate ― are necessary to be imposed if efficient market economy is to flourish in the country.
General business environment needs to be improved for attracting domestic and foreign investment. This can be achieved through a number of reform options: (a) easing regulations & administrative procedures governing entry, (b) developing financial sector, (c) creating education & training institutions to produce well-trained labor force, (d) enforcement of intellectual property rights, (e) conducive labor laws, (f) regulating for ensured supply of essential facilities (electricity, telecommunication, services, rail, road & air transportation, water, etc.); (g) separation of regulatory and competition authority; etc.
Legal and judicial reforms also need to be undertaken for attracting entry of new firms in the
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productive sectors of the economy. This requires development and enforcement of a legal framework to protect property and contract rights and broad range of human rights. This itself is an enormous task requiring establishment of an independent and accountable judiciary; writing and approving new laws, refining legal and administrative procedures, strengthening the capacity of the judicial system necessary to interpret and enforce the law, etc. Combating corruption is also of vital importance.
Besides enforcing external reforms in the economy, judicial and administrative sectors, reforms internal to the SOEs also need to be made so that they fulfill their purposes efficiently and effectively. This is achieved by adopting a set of options for corporate governance of the SOEs. The main elements of corporate governance are: establishing and developing general corporations; restructuring public utility SOEs; transferring, contracting out and leasing of loss-making SOEs; and equitisation of SOEs.
Corporatisation, or establishing general corporations, is the setting up of an independent legal identity for the enterprise, separate from the state as owner, thus placing its operations under the rule of commercial law like private enterprises. In the transition economies, besides the efficiency gains, corporatisation of state enterprises helps establish clear title, and sort out the web of relationships among enterprise, their subsidiaries and the government ministries/departments. Next step is to enforcing on it a hard budget constraint. Clear title also helps in assets disposal and SOE restructuring.
In the case of public utility SOEs, like those responsible for providing services like water, sanitation, electricity, etc., it is necessary to clearly classify, distinguish, and separate the functions like policy making, financing, management, organization, delivery etc. The extent of government involvement can vary depending upon the nature of the service and the administrative capacity. It may be a good option to contract out the management and operational components on competitive bidding. However, the mode of service provision chosen should, improve the four pillars of good governance: accountability, transparency, participation and stability of policy.
This restructuring initiatives for the SOEs may be of three major types: divestiture of functions, contracting out, and asset transfers. These types of privatization actions differ along several important dimensions. They include the residual level of government involvement, the
impacts on state or contract employees, and the statutory and regulatory basis for action.
An asset transfer involves the sale or other transfer of real property or personal property. An asset sale, lease or donation implies little or no government involvement after transfer and affects property more than people (although employees engaged in maintaining assets may be affected). Nevertheless, the disposition of surplus assets presents a unique set of legal, procedural, and management challenges.
The majority of privatization efforts have involved contracting out activities, involving management and operating contractors subcontracting out specific tasks or the state directly contracting for services previously provided by state employees. Contracting out introduces a host of legal issues related to the contract award and its continued governance. Contracting out can take many forms, from traditional service contracts to private financing and leaseback arrangements.
The option of equitisation is often used to raise the capital, transfer ownership shares of an enterprise, and promote the transparency and diversification of ownership through the allocation of a proportion of shares to small investors. This method is typically applied to profitable and large enterprises. The shares are offered on the stock market, generally at fixed price. In this option, transparency is higher than direct sale of an SOE because of the advertising and disclosure requirements associated with public share offer.
The experience of privatization in transition economies highlights a number of contradictions, particularly in the relationship between privatization, social welfare and employment. Whereas, privatization has resulted in economic growth, the ending of central planning and subsidies causes reductions in employment and loss of income for many people as well as a decline of social and welfare services formerly attached to enterprises. Social considerations therefore ought to form an essential component of reform process.
It is clear that countries with no recent experience of unemployment were suddenly exposed to the shock of redundancy and job insecurity and unemployment. However, the transition to market-guided allocation of capital and labour can be seen as an essential part of the cure rather than the cause of these problems, and has a crucial role in creating conditions for sustainable employment over the long term.
Section 4 of the report on “Summary and recommendations”. In the movement from centrally
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planned economy to market economy, each nation has selected different strategies for economic transition but the reform of SOEs becomes the most important. It has been undertaken to improve the performance and efficiency of SOEs, reduce public debts and fiscal burden of loss-making SOEs and free limited funds for financing other activities. It also helped to solve to some extent the problem of limited state resources by mobilising more domestic resources for development.
The reform has had significant achievements in SOE productivity enhancement, technology upgradation, transformation of SOE to more commercialised forms. State corporations have been restructured but still have problems of organisational structure and in need of further adjustments particularly the introduction of corporatisation. Privatised companies have improved considerably in term of profitability, operating efficiency, outputs, and employment. In many cases financial analysis shows significant positive changes in their post-equitisation performance. This is also an evidence to show that that the reform process is taking the right path.
The pace and consistency with which Vietnam’s economy has burgeoned over the last fifteen years has made the country one of East Asia’s ‘star performers’. Macro-economic growth exceeded 7 per cent last year, despite the poor global backdrop, and the government is aiming for 8 per cent growth in 2004. Industrial production is increasing at over 15 per cent, with the domestic private sector becoming an increasingly important engine of economic growth, and a much-needed source of employment. Export growth in 2003 was around 19 per cent, with Vietnam now one of the world’s top three exporters of rice, coffee, seafood and pepper.
There are still certain issues concerning institutional and legal frameworks, macro-economic policies, broad-based consensus of equitisation concept among actors, and social effects of the reform. This created many obstacles to the general development of the national economy. Therefore, there is an immediate need for speeding up the reform process and extensively spreading out diversification of ownership among state sector. This requires more active roles of the various ministries, SOE managers and employees, international donors in specifying detailed plans, supporting the preparation of equitisation and equitised companies.
There are several reasons for the unsatisfactory outcome of SOE reforms. The first is the lack of determination and the inconsistency in understanding and
implementing the restructuring policies. There has been concerns that equitization would lead to privatization and undermine the role of the state in the economy. Such attitudes leads to the reluctance in restructuring large SOEs. The pace of equitization has also been affected by interest groups: workers concern about losing jobs, while managers are afraid of losing positions.
There has been also a lack of a legal framework to support the process of restructuring, such as the lack of the law on competition and the regulations on hold and branch companies. Tedious administrative procedures and the lack of qualified officials also make equitization complicated and prolonged. The time needed to complete equitization has averaged around 91 days for a state corporation, 523 days for ministry-level enterprises and around 421 days for provincial enterprises
The measures, recommended in the report for accelerating the restructuring of SOEs and to improve their efficiency and competitiveness are:
In the next five years, SOEs should be transformed to operate under the company law. Public utility SOEs should be invested with more state capital to support the development of the sector economics. Policies of SOE restructuring must be grasped thoroughly by policy-making bodies and authorities. A thorough and consistent understanding of the restructuring policies will also facilitate their implementation;
To accelerate the equitization process, the scope of equitization may be extended and the plans followed with determination to realize the yearly target. More profit-making SOE should be chosen for equitization to attract domestic and foreign investors. Poorly performing SOEs need to be consolidated and enhanced before equitization. Some state corporations should be allowed to issue bonds to raise funds in the stock market. This measure also contributes to the development of the stock market since most enterprises listed in the stock market to date are of small and medium scale. The cap on foreign share-holdings in equitized SOE, which is less than 30% of the total shares, must be removed.
As for the enterprises with 100% state capital, the government needs to grant more autonomy to the board of directors or directors, and at the same time, to specify more clearly their responsibilities and obligations in the enterprises’ performance. In this direction, the law on state enterprise promulgated in 1995 and revised later in 2000 will take effect in July 2004. Currently, the government only allows to sell small SOEs, which have capital of less than 5 billion VND and are unable to
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equitize. Such restrictions must be relaxed to facilitate the outright sale of state enterprises. The procedures of bankruptcy and disbandment must be simplified to allow insolvent enterprises to go bankrupt.
The transformation of state corporations into the hold-branch company model must be speeded up. Administrative relations between corporation members should be replaced with financial and economic relations based on capital investment, transfer of technologies and assistance to management. The government is considering establishment of corporations in key economic sectors like telecomunication, oil, electricity etc. These corporations will be open to both domestic and foreign firms. State corporations must raise funds through the market, instead of relying on the state budget.
Clear evaluation of SOE assets must be improved by employing the auditing companies. The current evaluation criteria is rather ambiguous. State enterprises tend to undervaluate the assets to be sold inside the enterprise, whereas authorities tend to overvaluate. The auction sale should be promoted for the remainder of the shares, after subtracting the shares held by the state. The evaluation of land must be based on relevant market prices since land makes up a large proportion of SOE assets, particularly in urban areas.
The government needs to create a level playing field in order to eliminate monopoly and promote a healthy
competition between economic sectors. Government capital subsidies, preferential credit, directed lending and other privileges provided to SOEs must be eliminated. The legal framework for the restructuring of SOEs must be improved. The exiting laws and regulations should be revised and amended in accordance with the resolution of the 9th meeting of the Central Committee to meet the requirements of World Trade Organisation (WTO) accession and to facilitate the restructuring of SOEs.
Vietnam also needs to open important services, including banking and insurance, under the United States bilateral trade agreement (USBTA) ― leading to a more competitive banking and insurance sectors. The authorities could take advantage of this to reinforce regulation and make State Owned Commercial Banks (SOCBs) independent from both the regulator and government’s inference possibly through equitization.
An appropriate strategy is for the authorities to take advantage of the pressure brought about by the trade reforms to: (i) restructure SOEs, equitizing those in the competitive sector while regulating natural monopolies, and (ii) curtail the relation of inter-dependence between SOEs and SOCBs as agreed under the international monetary fund poverty reduction and growth facility.
In science the credit goes to the man who convinces the world, not the man to whom the idea first occurs.
— Sir Francis Darwin (1848 - 1925)
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RESEARCH PROJECTS Mapping of Indian science using science citation index (SCI) K.C. Garg and Bharvi Dutt An analysis of 11067 papers published by Indian scientists and indexed by the Science Citation Index (SCI) CD-ROM for the year 1997 indicates that academic institutions (universities/deemed universities/colleges, IITs, agricultural universities, medical colleges/hospitals and engineering colleges) are the major contributors to the publications output. The research papers published from India are widely scattered, both in terms of subjects as well as institutions. Major contribution came from 19 institutions, which contributed about 37% of the total Indian output. The output is low in mathematical and agricultural sciences. Indian scientists widely publish their findings in journals published from the scientifically
advanced countries of the West. ‘Biochemistry and molecular biology’, ‘biophysics’, ‘immunology and allergy’, ‘Organic chemistry’, ‘nuclear physics, particles and fields’, ‘atomic, molecular and chemical physics; spectroscopy’, ‘astronomy and astrophysics’, ‘Endocrinology and metabolism; nutrition / dietetics’, ‘ophthalmology’, ‘gastroenterology / hepatology’ and ‘anesthesiology’ are the areas of strength of Indian science. A large portion of papers have been published in journals with Normalized Impact Factor (NIF) 0-2. However about 2 per cent of the papers have appeared in journals with NIF>15.
Intellectual property rights information for R&D scientists in CSIR V.K.Gupta The data with respect to the references cited by R&D scientists in patent documents has been compiled into a database. Analysis is in progress to examine the information used by R&D scientists in the patenting
activity. Two kinds of information sources are being analysed, namely, scientific information and the technological information. A paper is being completed based on the significant insights of the analysis.
S&T policy reforms in India – Retrospect and prospects V.K.Gupta and Bharvi Dutt The literature survey is in progress to compile the changes / reforms in the domain of science and technology policy in India since 1990 and to identify the salient features of the emerging global context impinging on the S&T policy in India. Research is in progress in examining the Indian
inventive activity based on patents in US specially with reference to the collaboration of Indian R&D scientists with inventors from other countries.
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Formation, growth and changing structure of national scientific communities in India and China (PhD project) V.P. Kharbanda The main objective of the project is to look into the emergence, growth and development of scientific communities in India and China in a socio-historical perspective. This may throw light on the present and future direction of scientific communities in these countries. The issue is of significance in the changing norms and ethos of scientific research in the context of globalization, liberalization and knowledge economy. The preliminary investigations into the historical growth and development of scientific communities in India and China in the 20th century show that while India took precedence in institutionalization and professionalization of scientific communities before independence but after 1950 Chinese efforts in institutionalization and professionalization have been much more prominent and rapid although obstructed by the events of GLF and CR. In fact China is more open and liberal to attract foreign investments in the import of high technologies and in R&D. The basic scientific infrastructure and the process of rapid institutionalization and professionalization of the scientific community during 1960’s and 1970’s in India was almost completed which had helped in meeting the technological as well as socio-economic objectives during 1980’s and 1990’s under the perspective of Science and Tecnology for
Policy. In China too while basic infrastructure was complete by the late mid sixties, but the process of professionalization was retarded due to political disturbances and had to wait for major institutional reforms and organization till 1978 and particularly since 1985, although China did succeed in certain high technology areas of basic research and defence oriented research. The period after this has witnessed rapid institutional reforms and professionalization of scientific community in China. After 1990’s, the impact of globalization in India and China has compelled the scientific communities in both the countries to reorient themselves to inculcate the ethos of enterpreneurship, networking between academia, public and private institutions. This is particularly evident in the Biological community in both India and China. In the context of globalization and the changing structure of scientific community, the study clearly brings out changed norms for biological communities towards rapid commercialization of research activities in the present scenario of international competition. This calls for a cautious approach, where academic research orientation in universities needs further emphasis, co-existing along with public or private partnerships.
Virtualised Dhokra Museum: A diffusion of age-old with modern technology Vipan Kumar The name ‘Dhokra’ or ‘Dokra’ was formerly used to indicate a group of nomadic craftsmen, scattered over Bengal, Orissa and Madhya Pradesh in India, and is now generically applied to a variety of beautifully shaped and decorated brassware products created by the cire-perdue or ‘lost-wax’ process. The craft of lost-wax casting is an ancient one in India, and appears to have existed in an unbroken tradition from the earliest days of settled
civilisation in the sub-continent. Nistads Dhokra Museum houses Dhokra-artefacts made in various parts of the Dhokra belt during the last three decades, the cultural age of the artefacts being certainly much older than their chronological age. The beauty of these artefacts is confined to the boundaries of this museum and the traditional technology to the Dhokra artisans. The current version of the Nistads Dhokra museum came about as an
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“idea” being implemented, on its way enabling exploration of new technology called Virtual Reality.
The process of building the virtual museum starts by digitizing data i.e. cataloging details into a database and taking photographs of all artefacts using a direct approach. Then for the website Macromedia Dreamweaver, Fireworks and Flash is used to build a combination of HTML and PHP pages containing information about Dhokra, a “Search” for artefacts in the museum and animations of artefacts. Website also has a section called “Virtual tours” which includes a 360° panoramic view of the museum, a three dimensional view of the artefacts and a Flash enabled virtual tour where
users can navigate inside the museum using a mouse as well as select artefacts to view detailed descriptions. While taking pictures for a 360° panoramic view, camera is placed on a tripod in the center of the room and the pictures are taken at a step of 30°. The process is repeated for negative and positive pitch angles of 45°. For a three dimensional view, photographs are taken at regular intervals moving the camera around an artifact and manipulate in Flash to generate the desired effect. The project is the detailed study and implementation of VR technologies in creating and presenting the Nistads Dhokra Museum in the form of a virtualized museum.
Designining for learning and innovation in developing countries – The case of activity-based education Usha Menon 1. As a part of the design research project on activity-
based education, work has proceeded on concretising the concept of the Maths Lab and training the team of Jodo Gyan for the same. It is expected that in the context of CBSE making it compulsory for the schools to have a Maths Lab, this formulation is appropriate for promoting innovations in activity-based education in Mathematics. The response to this effort has been very positive from Educational societies and schools in Delhi and outside.
2. NISTADS has started collaboration with the Army Public School in Noida for actually introducing alternative methods for mathematics in the Classroom. Regular visits are made to the school to interact with the two teachers of Class I. So far the response of the teachers, parents and children have been very positive. This is linked to the interest shown by the Army board for introducing these methods and Maths Lab in the 116 Army schools in different parts of the country.
3. The research has involved the design of a sustainable model for technology upgradation involving both public R&D institutions and non-public institutions. After five years, the social enterprise set up called Jodo Gyan Educational Services has reached break-even.
4. New teaching aids for topics in geometry and algebra have been designed and orientation given to Jodo Gyan team.
5. During the summer of 2004, five week long activities were designed and conducted with 5, 6 and 7 std. children in Shakurpur on Science topics such as Shape of the Earth, Magnetism and Light.
6. Further analysis of the data collected during the survey of performance of children in Class I in the MCD schools of Shakurpur has brought forward the negative impact of multi-age classrooms on the performance of younger children. The paper based on these results is under preparation.
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Indigenous and traditional knowledge systems Anuradha Singh Objective of this progsram is to ascertain, assess, advance and analyze nature, content and development of traditional sciences of India. Our efforts are in two directions: (i) Theoretical and philosophical initiative: Studies on foundations, research and methodology of
theoretical sciences in the Indian tradition; (ii) Policy and developmental initiative: Building national dialogue on the role of indigenous traditions of sciences for development.
Conditions prevailing in NISTADS’ library and science and technology archives: A study R.S. Singh The main objectives of this project is to set forth some basic principles on conservation and storage, which applies to the library and archives collection in general and of NISTADS in particular.
Based on the interpretation of the collected data recommendations were made to install dehumidifiers to arrest deterioration effects.
Study on conservation activity and research in India R.S. Singh Necessary data on conservation activity in India for 33 years (1966 to 1998) have already been collected. Efforts will be made to analyze this data to get such outputs as: • Trends in conservation research
• Specialists in the area • Specialized institutions, their focus and output • Status report for the last 33 years in the field
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Technological upgradation of traditional skills of rural artisans through information, training and adaptation of science and technology in Sampla, Dist. Rohtak, Haryana Sponsoring agency: Department of Science and Technology (DST), New Delhi S.S. Solanki The site chosen for the field study, Sampla, Dist.Rohtak, Haryana, has been a center of agricultural and allied activities for a long time and all types of artisans, namely Blacksmiths, Carpenters, Potters, Weavers and Cobblers, reside in this cluster, along with landless labourers. They mostly belong backwards categories and are poor economically.
The rural artisans in this cluster belong to the unorganized sector and are not sound economically. Their basic problem is 'Non-availability of information'. Therefore, the core idea of this project is to provide information and training to these artesons. So that they may be able to improve their economic condition which would reduce their drudgery and enhance their social status. Objectives of the project 1. To prepare a database of the artisans of the Sampla
cluster with details about their occupation, earnings, skills, migrations, women employment, etc.
2. Details about the problem being faced by these artisans in their profession.
3. Details about the inputs required as perceived by these artisans for up gradation of their skill, sector-wise.
4. Organising Training Campus sector-wise 5. Help in fostering links between artisans and
government functionaries. 6. To provide information about the market potential of
the products of this village-cluster, by providing information about the potential markets.
7. To encourage the youth of this village-cluster to generate self-employment opportunities, particularly in the service sector.
8. To create women employment opportunities in this village-cluster so that they could augement the family income.
A model to analyze the impact of intelligent cell on improving the efficiency of a mobile communication system Yogesh Suman Mobile communication has influenced lives of people from all sections and areas whether rural or urban, rich or poor thereby becoming almost essential part of life. Looking at the huge future potential of it, big organizations are spending large funds on research related to it and governments of different countries are trying their best to promote it.
The present work aims at studying the basic architecture of a mobile communication system. It identifies the main issues related to the efficiency of such systems namely limitations of frequency spectrum and co-channel interference. It discusses these issues in detail and analyzes how these can be tackled effectively by implementing the concept of intelligent cell. The main stress in intelligent cell concept is to deliver confined
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power to a mobile unit or a mobile phone. This reduces the co channel interference considerably because the signal doesn’t have enough power to have impact beyond the limited area. Since signal doesn’t have enough power to interfere with another signal beyond the limited area, it can be reused outside that limit. This increases the reuse of the same frequency within a given geographical area. Thus the number of traffic channels available increases which increases the system’s capacity of serving unlimited number of customer with a given frequency spectrum. Another aspect of intelligent cell is that the signal has to follow the mobile phone, which means that when the mobile unit moves to a new location the signal has to follow it so the base station has to keep a track of movement of the mobile unit. Therefore two requirements emerge to implement the intelligent cell, these are – the information about the location of the mobile unit and delivering the power or signal in the localized area at and
around the mobile unit. These requirements make the basis of this work. In first part the techniques for determining the location of a mobile station are analyzed and reviewed in terms of various evaluation parameters like accuracy, processing load and cost. Based on this review a suitable methodology for tracking the location of a mobile station is suggested. The second part of the work deals with the issue of supplying the signal to a mobile unit in a confined manner. Output A paper prepared out of theoretical review of different mobile location-tracking techniques, has been published in IETE Technical Review. Another paper prepared out of simulation results of these techniques is under preparation. It will be communicated to some suitable telecommunication journal shortly.
Science without religion is lame, religion without science is blind. — Albert Einstein (1879 - 1955)
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Conferences, visits, lectures and seminars
Papers presented in conferences/workshops/seminars, etc.
1. Banerjee, Parthasarathi (2004) ‘Ownership and rights to creativity’, in Seminar on Creativity and cognitive science, at Central University of Hyderabad, April.
2. Kochhar, Rajesh (2004) ‘Continuity embedded in change: Technological and integrated assistance to Dhokra metal casting craftsmen in eastern India’, at WAITRO Biennial Congress on Technology for sustainable development, Nairobi, 6-11 September.
3. Kumar Neelam (2004) ‘The place of psychology of science in science studies: A swing from logic of scientific discovery and structures of scientific revolutions to the cognitive tum’, in Symposium at international congress of Psychology, Beijing, 8-13 August.
4. Roy, Santanu; Sharma*, S. (2004) ‘An analytical study of technical employment potential in the BPO/ITES sector in India’, in National seminar on Technical manpower development and utilization (TMDU-2004), at National Institute of Technology, Rourkela, 15-16 April.
5. Roy, Santanu (2004) ‘Networking strategy for technology transfer and commercialization from R&D laboratories: Key lessons from case studies in India’, in 4th international conference of the International entrepreneurship forum – entrepreneurship: Contexts, locales and values, at University of Essex, Paris Dauphine University and OECD Programme LEED, Paris, France, 22-24 September.
Visits/lectures Dinesh Abrol. Presented papers at Ist Asialics international conference on Innovation systems and clusters in Asia: Challenges and regional integration, held at Bangkok, 31 March – 2 April 2004. Invited lecture on ‘TRIPs, Public Health and Traditional Knowledge: Issues and Concerns’, at Research Information System for Non-Aligned Countries, New Delhi, August 23, 2004. Parthasarathi Banerjee. Delivered lectures on ‘Strategies of cooperation’, at XLRI, Jamshedpur during September–October 2004. Sujit Bhattacharya. Presented paper in the Eighth international conference on Science and technology indicators, at Leiden, 23-25 September 2004. S.K. Dhawan. Attended a three-day training programme on Project management, at National Physical Laboratory, New Delhi, 16-18 September 2004.
V.K. Gupta. Talk on ‘Intellectual property rights’, at IPR awareness programme, held at Karnataka University, Dharwad, 28-29 April 2004. Guest lectgure on ‘Management of IPR in R&D’, at National seminar on challenges posed by IPR regimes, at Birla Institute of Technology and Science, Pilani, 15-16 September 2004. V.P. Kharbanda. Lecture on ‘Scietnific and technological competitiveness in China and India – Who holds the edge’, at the National symposum on Can India surge ahead of China, at Rai Unviersity, New Delhi, 9 April 2004. M.U. Khan. Participated in the Workshop on Six countries programme network, Helsinki, Finland, 17-18 June 2004. Subhan Khan. Attended as an expert the First meeting of the expert group on Land information system (LIS), at Department of Science and Technology, New Delhi, 6
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April 2004. Attended the National workshop of ENVIS centres and nodes, held at Wildlife Institute of India, Dehradun, 25-27 June 2004. Rajesh Kochhar. Presented a paper at WAITRO biennial congress on Technology for sustainable development, at Nairobi, 6-11 September 2004. Neelam Kumar. Invited to present a paper in International congress on Psychology, Beijing 8-14 August 2004. Ramesh Kundra. Presented a paper in Tehran workshop on Scientometrics, at Iranian Institute of Philosophy, Iran, 17-19 September 2004.
Mohammad Rais. Visited Paris during 21-24 September for a meeting of NISTADS-SICI agro biodiversity project with DIVERSITAS, Paris. DIVERSITAS is an international programme involving integrative approach to biodiversity science. The programme is jointly supported by UNESCO, ICSU, International Union of Biological Sciences (IUBS), International Union of Microbiological Societies (IUMS), and Scientific Committee on Problems of the Environment (SCOPE). The NISTADS project is very close to DIVERSITAS key research project on social choice and decision-making about conservation and sustainable use of biodiversity (DIVERSITAS: Focus 3). DIVERSITAS has expressed keen interest for involving NISTADS in their future Network activities on agro biodiversity policy studies.
He also visited Canada during 24 September – 8 October 2004 and USA from 9-12 October. The major part of the visit in Canada was spent with SHARP project collaborating partner in Queens’ University, Kingston. A seminar on the project was given in School of Environment Studies of Queens’ University. We had wide variety of discussion with various faculties in the University. We carried-out project work related to data collected, research methodology and data treatment as per
project objectives. A visit to Guelph University was also made for meeting faculties in the school of Social Sciences.
Santanu Roy. Visited Washington, DC, USA to present a paper at the 13th International conference on Management of technology (IAMOT 2004) with the theme ‘New directions in technology management: Changing collaboration between government, industry and university’, during 3-7 April 2004. He also chaired a session on ‘R&D management’ on 5 April 2004 during 1100-1230 hours in the conference. Visited Paris, France to present a paper at the 4th International conference of the International entrepreneurship forum (IEF 2004) with the theme ‘Entrepreneurship: contexts, locales and values’, during 22-24 September 2004. He attended a three-day training programme on Project management, at National Physical Laboratory, New Delhi, 16-18 September 2004. Foreign visitor to NISTADS Canadian Government supported Research Intern/ Scholar: Mr Joshua Beckh Rubenstein has joined NISTADS for six months from September 02, 2004. He will be working with Dr M. Rais in NISTADS’ SHARP Project on Policy development to support agro-biodiversity in hills of Uttaranchal. Prof. Gary van Loon (Queens University, Canada), NISTADS-SHARP project collaborator, made a short visit to NISTADS during September 27-29, 2004. This visit was in conjunction with his two weeks visit to Centre for Plant, People and Ecosystem (CPPE), Chennai, South Indian collaborating partner of SHARP Project.
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Tuesday seminar series Tuesday seminars held during the period Date Speaker Topic 2004 6 April Dr. A.K. Mathur; Nistads From design to market: Crucial links for handicraft
industry 13 April Shri Dinesh Abrol; Nistads Innovation systems and clusters in Asia: A report on
International conference Bangkok, 1-2 April 2004 20 April Dr. Santanu Roy; Nistads Management of technology: A report on International
conference, held in Washington D.C., 3-7 April 2004. 27 April Prof. V. Subramanian; School of
Environmental Sciences, Jawaharlal Nehru University, New Delhi
Issues related to fresh water
11 May Ms. Anuradha Shukla; Scientist, Central Road Research Institute, New Delhi
Environmental pollution due to road transport
18 May Ms. Sandhya Wakdikar; Nistads India’s role in global health-care market 25 May Dr. (Mrs.) S. Visalakshi; Nistads Commercialisation of biotechnology in India: An analysis 1 June Ms. Usha Menon; Nistads MCD school children’s performance: A survey on policy
implications 8 June Dr. Ravi Agarwal; Director, Toxics
Link, New Delhi Chemical safety in a globalised world: International initiatives
15 June Mr. Ravi Sharma; Student from IIT Roorkee; Mr. Ranjan Kumar Bhadra; Student from IIT Kharagpur
Data security
22 June Dr. V.P. Sharma; Ex-Additional Director General, Indian Council of Medical Research
Malaria and its control in India
29 June Dr. Rajeev K. Goel; Department of Economics, Illinois State University, USA
Organization of markets for science and technology
6 July Nistads faculty meeting 13 July Ms. Pooja Chaudhary; Student trainee
from BITS Pilani Patents on turmeric
Ms. Smita Singh; Student trainee from BITS Pilani
Incentives for agro-biodiversity
20 July Prof. Jitendra Mohan; Department of Psychology, Panjab University, Chandigarh
Psychological correlates of stress management
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Date Speaker Topic 27 July Dr. H.S. Gaur; Head, Nematology,
Indian Agricultural Research Institute Nematodes: The unseen enemies and friends of farmers Nematodes are the most numerous multicellular animals on earth. A handful of soil will contain thousands of the microscopic worms, many of them parasites of insects, plants or animals. Free-living species are abundant, including nematodes that feed on bacteria, fungi, and other nematodes, yet the vast majority of species encountered are poorly understood biologically. There are nearly 20,000 described species classified in the phylum Nemata. In size they range from 0.3 mm to over 8 meters.
3 August Dr. M.A. Haque; Director, Department of Environment
Medicinal plants: Their importance and conservation
10 August Ms. Sunita Narain; Director, Centre for Science and Environment
Indian science and challenges in our daily life
17 August Mr. Drew Hayden Taylor; (Member of Ojibway First Nation of Curve Lake, Ontario), Award-winning playwright and journalist; and Ms. Janine Willie; (Member of Kwakiutl First Nation of British Columbia), Ryerson University, Toronto
Indigenous people in Canada and their literature
24 August Dr. Philippe Cullet; School of Oriental and African Studies, University of London
Emerging intellectual property regimes: Implications for access to plant genetic resoruces
31 August Shri Naresh Kumar; Nistads Commerce is on rise as science declines 14 September Dr. Ramesh Kundra; Nistads Development of interdisciplinary linkages in research
through COLLNET: Indian experience 21 September Dr. Kavita Mehra; Nistads Organisational learning and the gender: An empirical
analysis of software firms in India 28 September Dr. Shyamala Mani; National
Coordinator, Centre for Environmental Education (CEE), New Delhi
Poor management of municipal waste: Its effects on health and environment
Others 17 Septemebr Prof. Richard T. Mahoney; The
Biodesign Institute at Arizona State University, and Senior Advisor, Centre for Management of IP in Health R&D (MIHR)
Intellectual property and health product innovation
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DIMENSIONS of SCIENCE Lecture Series jointly organised by India International Centre and Nistads Delivered at India International Centre Lecture 45 Reinventing higher education Speaker: Prof. Yash Pal Chair: Prof. Syed Shahid Mahdi; Vice-Chancellor, Jamia Millia Islamia 2 April 2004 Creating, not delivering education “Education and learning are not delivered; true learning is created every time a student and a teacher get together.” This was Prof. Yashpal making a fervent plea for bringing back intimacy into education so that we are able to nurture the curiousness and creativity of our children. He was speaking at a special lecture held at the India International Centre and organized by the National Institute of Science, Technology and Development Studies (NISTADS). Prof. Syed Shahid Mahdi, Vice Chancellor of the Jamia Millia Islamia University, chaired the talk.
Prof. Yashpal lamented that teachers today had taken upon themselves the role of postmen, merely delivering education rather than constructively engaging with children. He harked back to the days of the guru-shishya parampara when students imbibed education from being at close quarters with their teachers. Even today, the best musicians and the best dancers emerge from gharanas where again intimacy between the teacher and the taught is what brings out the best in the students. In much the same way, even though we may have access to lectures and books by great teachers and researchers, we still want to go to a great university so that we learn and imbibe by simply being next to these great people.
Prof. Yashpal himself learnt the importance of intimacy about a quarter century ago when he was given the responsibility of ushering in satellite education in the country for the first time through the SITE experiment. “I was enamoured of the possibility of being able to reach all the distant villages of the country through satellite television with the aim that we may reach education to those parts which were so disconnected,” he said.
As he along with his team scoured thousands of villages all over the country to see where receiving stations could be set up, one realization quickly dawned on him. That he didn’t know the people, didn’t know their
language, didn’t understand their problems. “That made me realize that one learns more and more from intimacy,” said Prof. Yashpal.
But today people believe that all wisdom is there, we just have to deliver it to children. Prof. Yashpal went on to say, “I believe that many beautiful aspects of being human arise from closeness of a number of people. Language, music, humour, architecture, even science could not show its peaks unless some people got together and communicated it through a language much beyond words.”
Prof. Yashpal emphasized that this intimacy was necessary to ignite the spark of creativity and satiate the curiosity of children. Children are curious and they observe more things than grown ups do. They ask questions. It is necessary, he said, to at least try and answer some of these questions. But more often than not this is not the case. In schools, such questions are brushed aside on the plea that these questions do not concern the subject syllabus. This is how we stifle the tendency to ask questions and snuff out creativity.
Prof. Yashpal also came down heavily on coaching classes. He said, “We overload our children with information and expect them to remember that information so that they get extra marks in competitions. And for making them remember we have coaching classes.” He said coaching classes do not provide education. He even went to the extent of calling for a total ban on coaching classes and making them illegal.
According to Prof. Yashpal, many of the problems that occur in school education continue in the university education also. If creativity is nurtured at the school stage, fresh minds of young students would lead to mutual transformation of teachers and students. Research students would not be waiting for their guide to hunt for a new problem for their dissertation.
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Prof. Yashpal also castigated the tendency to create experts. He made a fervent appeal to break down the artificial walls between various disciplines and called for a multidisciplinary approach to education. “The interconnections with allied areas are normally frowned upon,” he said. “And, when allowed, they are restricted to examples that might not be relevant any more.” Unless people from different disciplines work together, innovation, inventiveness and entrepreneurship will not thrive, he said.
“That is why today in India you look at the sign boards, you find all hyphenated names, Hero-Honda, and so on. There is hardly any pure Indian technology,” said Prof. Yashpal. He was of the view that breaking down these walls would enable people from different
disciplines, for instance, physiologists and physicists to work together, university and industry to work together. Only then we could hope for some marvelous technologies to be invented in the country.
Finally, Prof. Syed Shahid Mahdi in his comments reiterated Prof. Yashpal’s observations that we need to nurture creativity in our children and that our education system needs questioners. He wrapped up the talk with his very incisive comment that, when the pioneer of distance education talks about bringing back intimacy into education, one definitely needs to sit up and take note.
Hasan Jawaid Khan Associate Editor, Science Reporter, NISCAIR
Lecture 46 Coping with examinations: An interactive session with students Panel: Dr. Mahdu Bihari (Head, Neurology, AIIMS, New Delhi); Mr. R.P. Garg (Principal, Govt. Sarvodaya Bal Vidyalaya, Vivek Vihar, Delhi); Prof. Rajesh Kochhar (Director, NISTADS, New Delhi) and Dr. Manju Mehta (Additional Professor, Clinical Psychology, AIIMS, New Delhi) 15 April 2004 Stress-busting tips Taking exams can be very worrying and stressful. The fear associated with exams is largely due to our anxiety about failure. This anxiety can be conquered with some positive thinking. Some amount of stress can also be relieved by following a scientific method of preparation way ahead of exams. But there is really no single wonder formula for students to help them cope with examinations. This much became clear in a lively discussion held as part of a regular seminar series organized by the National Institute of Science, Technology and Development Studies (NISTADS) on 15 April 2004.
Present in the discussion were students of the Vivekanand School, New Delhi. Giving them tips were Dr M. Behari, professor and head of the Neurology Department, AIIMS and Dr R. P. Garg, Principal of the Government Sarvodaya Bal Vidyalaya, Vivek Vihar, New Delhi. Chairing the discussion, and often himself providing useful tips, was Prof. Rajesh Kochhar, Director, NISTADS.
The discussion began with questions from students. The questions were a pointer to the tension and trauma that today’s students undergo in these times of cut-throat
competition, high parental expectations and increasing burden of school syllabi. For instance, Harsh was greatly concerned with the fact that no matter how hard he studied before the exams, on the day of the exam everything became messed up. Ankur wanted advice on how he could manage time between his school and his coaching classes.
Dr Behari’s advice to the students was to keep preparing for the exams right through the year and not keep everything for the end. The problem occurs when one has to read a lot in a short time. Assimilating all that information and remembering it becomes a monumental task for the brain. The key to learning, said Dr Behari, is multiple revisions. If you read several times you get it registered in the brain, so that a slight stimulus will revive what you have read.
Added to this there is an element of anxiety as well—anxiety about finishing the revision in time, anxiety about the sort of questions that would be asked, and how well you would be able to attempt them. If anxiety is added to learning then you can’t learn and remember. What kills you in the end are tension and anxiety, not hard work, said Dr Behari.
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Prof. Kochhar intervened to remind students to beware of the fear of the unknown. Do not increase your anxiety by worrying about unknown fears, he said. Do not let your anxiety be a hurdle in your learning process. He advised them not to bother about things that are not under their control; instead they should just concentrate on preparing well. Learning too needs to be followed in a scientific manner, reminded the experts. Dr Behari emphasized that students should follow at least two methods of learning—audio as well as visual, that is, reading as well as discussing. Prof. Kochhar added writing as well to the list. He said that writing helps to firmly imprint what you have learned in your mind. The students were also made aware that for better learning they need to take into consideration several physiological factors as well. Dr Behari said that whatever they do, they need to have good time to sleep because by stealing out time from sleep for their studies they were only adding to their sleep debt. This debt has to paid one way or the other. After a week they may just crash, warned Dr Behari. Sleep gives time to the brain to recover from the stresses and strains of the day, which greatly enhances the learning potential. Dr Behari advised that even while studying, students should take short breaks to refresh and reinvigorate the brain.
Concentration is yet another factor that plays a key role in learning. Dr R.P. Garg cited the example of a class of 40 students where the teacher is the same, the textbooks are the same, but one child scores more. The difference, he said, is in the concentration level. Dr Garg called upon the students to improve their concentration level for faster learning. Dr Vibha Parthasarathi, former Principal of the Sardar Patel Vidyalaya, who was also present in the audience, said that schools must have visiting psychologists and counselors from class eight onwards to guide students about scientific methods of learning as well as relieving stress. She also stressed on the need to make schools aware of the concept of multiple intelligences. Dr Parthasarathi said that schools should help the children discover their aptitude and also be made aware of alternative careers. This point was taken forward by Dr Behari who said that success lies in doing one’s job well and to one’s satisfaction. Even if one does not get one’s desired streams, one should learn to make the best of the opportunities that life offers. And life offers them aplenty. Prof. Kochhar cited the examples of Kiran Bedi and Julius Rebeiro who despite not getting into their desired career excelled at their job and made a name for themselves.
HJK
Lecture 47 Ethics of medical research Speaker: Dr. Satish Jain; Former Professor, All India Institute of Medical Sciences Chair: Dr. M.K. Bhan; Secretary, Department of Biotechnology, Government of India 17 May 2004 The Ethical Dilemma With major global players pumping in billions of dollars into pharmaceutical research, and instances of wrongful use of biological material collected from developing countries coming to light, recent years have seen growing international debate about the ethics of conducting medical research in developing countries. Today, the risk of exploitation of the more vulnerable parties is more than ever before, particularly so in developing countries.
Despite his strong views that one must try to do the right thing always, avoid causing any damage to persons participating in the research and have concern for human
dignity, Dr Satish Jain of the Gangaram Hospital conceded that these are very difficult conditions to meet when one is doing research—whether it is on lab animals or on humans. Dr Jain was delivering a lecture on `Ethics of Medical Research’ as part of the Dimensions of Science lecture series organized by the National Institute of Science, Technology And Development Studies (NISTADS). One of the most difficult problems that confronts clinicians and medical professionals is how to apply ethical principles to real decisions affecting patients, he said.
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Dr Jain informed that India is today a much-favoured destination for drug companies interested in conducting clinical trials. It is rich in diverse genetic resources—different cultures, different people and large families. Besides, the cost of manpower is low and computational skills are abundant. It has a large population of patients with common diseases that affect developing nations. This genetic diversity is lacking in developed countries although they have access to high technology and lots of funds. Besides, they have small families and many of them do not even know where there families are, he said.
Dr Jain pointed out that the aspects of research that are of prime concern in developing countries include the standards of care provided to participants, the methods used to procure informed consent, confidentiality, the appropriateness of international and national guidance on research ethics, sharing of benefits, and the care provided to both research participants and the wider community once research is over.
The proper use of the biological material collected for genetic research needs to be rigorously defined according to ethical principles agreed by scientists, patients, family members and other agencies, said Dr Jain. But this is not happening. Researchers take permission for research on a genetic material and then use the same material for other researches, which is unethical. He said that we must take steps to restrict these fly-by-night researchers from developed countries who visit developing countries for collection of biological research material and then go back to their countries and apply for patents based on the biological material collected from the developing countries.
While multinational companies make millions through this research, lawyers make millions through patenting and IPRs, the people who participated in the research gain nothing in return. Dr Jain emphasized that India needs to come up with laws that would ensure proper sharing of benefits.
Yet another cause for concern highlighted by Dr Jain was that over the years many of the new molecules that are coming in for any disorder are usually generated in the developed countries. They carry out preliminary clinical trials in their country, and then these drugs find their way into developing countries. No tests are carried out to ascertain how these drugs affect the population in these countries. Since the developing countries have a different genetic pool, results obtained in developed countries may not be true for developing countries. There are or no laws to prevent this from happening. Dr Jain emphasized that this needs to be tackled at the highest levels.
Dr Jain also pointed out an anomaly prevailing in India with regard to participation of human subjects in medical research. In the West, cash compensation is given for clinical trials and also if a participant gets injured or suffers from an adverse effect because of the participation in the trial. In India, however, there is no provision for compensation of the first type.
However, Dr Jain cautioned that although one needs to be concerned about ethical issues, one should not think in terms of blocking medical research. There should be a realization that accelerated research can take place without compromising on any ethical issues.
HJK
Lecture 48 The Rigvedic Soma plant Speaker: Prof. Rajesh Kochhar (Director, NISTADS: National Institute of Science, Technology and Development Studies) Chair: Dr. Brij Mohan Pande 14 June 2004 Closing in on SomaIt has been called the `elixir of immortality’ and `drink of the Gods’. Identification of the Soma plant has always been a controversial academic exercise. However, at a talk delivered at the India International Centre, Prof. Rajesh Kochhar, Director, National Institute of Science, Technology and Development Studies (NISTADS) zeroed
in on Ephedra as the most likely candidate for the Soma plant on the basis of references in the RgVeda and Avesta. The lecture was part of the `Dimensions of Science’ lecture series organized by NISTADS.
Soma is a celebrated plant in the RgVeda as well as in Avesta, where it is called Haoma, later shortened to Ho’m in Pahalvi. A drink, also called Soma, was
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extracted from the plant by pressing or crushing its stalk for offering to the gods and for drinking. Significance of the Soma cult is apparent from the fact that the RgVeda devotes a full mandala to it. The Ninth Mandala, Soma Mandala, consists entirely of hymns to Soma. Similarly, the Haoma plant figures in three hymns in the Avesta.
Thus, Soma/haoma was perceived as a giver of immortality, a healthy and long life, offspring, happiness, courage, strength, victory over enemies, wisdom, understanding and creativity. The Soma drink has been called 'the procreator of thoughts'. More realistically, it prevents sleep and keeps the drinker awake and alert. In effect, it was energizing, invigorating and anti-sleep.
Prof. Kochhar informed that the Soma plant as described in the RgVeda and Avesta was leafless, just like a twig. The juice was extracted from the shoots or stalks, never from the fruits or berries. The term ksip is particularly apt, because the stalks, like the fingers, had joints or knots. The colour of the stalk was ruddy (aruna), brown (babhru), or golden (hari), corresponding to zairi in the Avesta.
An important piece of information is that Soma grew in the mountains, said Prof. Kochhar. The RgVeda describes Soma explicitly as parvatiivrdh or 'mountain grown'. It uses the term Soma Maujavata, 'the Soma from Mujavat'. Mujavat, according to Yaska's Nirukta was a mountain. It also mentions Haraiti Bareza (also called Hara Barazaiti) as the Soma habitat. Haraiti is identified with Mount Elburz. But the name Elburz not only denoted the present Mount Elburz, a peak in the Caucasus, but was applied to the whole range of mountains, extending from the Hindu Kush in the East to the Caucasus in the West.
There was a whole ritual associated with the drinking of Soma. The Soma ritual, Prof. Kochhar informed, though elaborate, comprised a number of simple steps: extraction of juice, its collection, purification, modification, libation and consumption. There were two methods of extracting the juice from the Soma stalks. One could use mortar and pestle for processing the plant. Significantly, the Avestan practice was also to use a mortar, called havana. A woman 'pushing [the pestle] backwards and forwards' had no place in the ritual. The ritualistic practice was to pound the stalks between two stones held in hands. The stones were also held in high esteem. The juice was purified by passing it through a strainer made of sheep's wool.
However, in the whole procedure, there was no time for fermentation, nor was any fermented beverage (sura) ever added to Soma. In fact sura was frowned upon.
In the Brahmana period, the Soma plant ceased to be commonplace. It became a prized item in the ritual, which was difficult to procure, and so was first rationed and then substituted by locally available creepers called Soma-latas and Soma-vallis which are leafless with fleshy stems. At the same time, the original Soma became a mythical plant. There have been many attempts at identifying the plant in the past but people have often misread the text, said Prof. Kochhar. For instance, people have said it was hallucinogenic. It was not. But the most dubious has been identifying Soma with Somalata and Somavalli. Somalata, used as a substitute in south India, is Sarcostemma brevistigma, which has a very bitter taste, and so could not have been the Soma plant of the RgVedic era whose juice was so enthusiastically imbibed three times a day.
In 1771, in his French translation of the Avesta, Du Perron quoted Farhang Jahangiri to say that Horn is a tree that grows in Persia in the mountains of Shirwan, Guillan, Mazendran and the neighbourhood of Yezd. It resembles sweet heather, its knots are very close to each other, and the leaves are like those of jasmine. He went on to say that Horn did not grow in India and that 'the Dasturs of India are in the habit of sending at the end of a certain season two Parsees to Kerman to search for the branches of Horn.
Today, according to Prof. Kochhar who has himself researched the topic in great detail, most scholars agree that the plant as described in both RgVeda and Avesta is Ephedra. There are many species of Ephedra, but the Ephedra of RgVeda and Avesta are the four or five mountain-growing species containing ephedrine.
When we identify Ephedra as Soma and place the RgVedic people in the Ephedra habitat of Hindu Kush, all the diverse pieces of the puzzle fall into place, said Prof. Kochhar. The vast Ephedra-growing area in Afghanistan and Iran was occupied by or was accessible to the Indo-Iranians, who could develop a common Soma/Haoma cult. As the Indo-Aryans moved eastwards, their distance from Soma increased, first cutting down the supply and then stopping it altogether. Finally, in the plains, Soma's place in the rituals was given to the substitutes. In course of time, Soma became a mythical plant.
HJK
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Lecture 49 Tribes, castes and genes Speaker: Prof. Partha P. Majumder (Head, Anthropology & Human Genetics Unit, Indian Statistical Institute, Kolkata) Chair: Prof. Nandini Sundar (Jawaharlal Nehru University) 16 July 2004 Debunking myths genetically How different are human beings from each other? Since ages human beings have persisted with ideas and concepts that hint at superiority of a certain class of human beings. Genetically speaking, however, only 0.01 % of our genes are responsible for the physical differentiation that we see. “One of the greatest contributions of this kind of genetic work pertaining to human ethnic populations has been debunking the myth of race,” said Prof. Partha Pratim Majumder at a lecture delivered at the India International Centre. The lecture was part of the `Dimensions of Science’ lecture series organized by the National Institute of Science, Technology and Development Studies (NISTADS).
“In fact, people of one `race’ may be very different from one another in their cultural practices, dress, food habits or even morphology, yet similar to someone of another `race’, genetically speaking,” he said. Which means that race per se does not exist. Because if it did exist then one would expect two members drawn from two different races to be genetically more distant than those belonging to the same race. Genetic studies conducted in most parts of the world have found this to be untrue. In fact, Prof. Majumder informed that humans have very low genetic diversity compared to our closest ancestors, the chimpanzees, and also compared to many species of mammals. Gorillas, orangutans have high levels of genetic diversity.
Prof. Majumder traced the evolutionary path of human beings as they developed a bipedal gait on way to evolution as humans. This upright gait seems to have set into motion a profound evolutionary trend; hands became free for manipulation and with an upright gait they could look over the high underbrush for predators. Perhaps, this bipedality was also responsible for the development of dramatically larger brains.
From genetic and archaeological studies, it is now almost certain that Africa is the place where humans evolved. Prof. Majumder said that it is highly unlikely that there was simultaneously evolution of humankind in multiple geographical regions. Perhaps humankind came out of Africa to populate other parts of the world. In this
context, India occupies centrestage in human evolution because some of the first out-of-Africa migrations were to India. These humans followed the northern exit route but now there are indications that they may also have followed the southern exit route along the coastline of Africa, Saudi Arabia and India, to reach Australia.
These movements in human population were responsible for populating the world in a sure and steady manner. When the stress on resources, resulting from demographic expansion, increased at a certain geographical area, groups of humans broke off and moved on to other areas. Often they moved to certain geographical areas that were so far away that there was no possibility of an admixture or exchange of genes between the ancestral population and the daughter population or between two daughter populations. As a result of humans tending to mate within their group genetic variations tend to get localized within these groups and groups tend to retain some measure of their genetic distinctiveness. This is what geneticists exploit in order to map human history. And this is how geneticists have even managed to map Indian history with a great measure of certainty.
For instance, we all receive our mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) from our mothers. So female lineages can be tracked through studies on mtDNA. These studies seem to suggest that a small group of founding females came into India and all of the mtDNA we received was from them. “Thus, there is a fundamental genomic unity of ethnic India in the midst of all the physical, cultural, religious and linguistic diversity,” said Prof. Majumder. “Yet, we all fight over these kinds of diversities but look below the skin and you find that we have all descended from a small group of founding females.”
The group of founders who came out of Africa got subdivided into smaller populations. Genetic studies have revealed that there is evidence of an Indo-European admixture, which means a number of people, came into India from central and west Asia. The Dravidians who may have been more widely dispersed than they are now gradually retreated to the south to avoid dominance exerted on them by Indo-European speakers.
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Perhaps it was these Indo-European speaking people who set up the caste system as they moved into the Indian subcontinent about 3500 years ago. They intermarried with indigenous people and also absorbed many of them into their system of ranking. All this has been revealed by an analysis of mtDNA, which has shown that the caste groups have higher frequencies than tribals of some specific mtDNA variants that are frequent in central Asia. Further, an in-depth analysis revealed that there may have been an overestimation of the extent of migration from central Asia into India.
Study of the Y chromosome, which tracks male migrations, however, did not reveal a very clear picture that is consistent with the above finding. What it did reveal, however, is that there may have been a large
influx of people from the northeastern corridor of India, perhaps during the Austronesian diaspora that started from southern China about 5000 years ago.
Prof. Majumder ended his lecture with a plea for logical and sane interpretation of genetic results rather than using such results to score political points. He quoted Maya Angelou who had said: “It’s time for parents to teach children early on that in diversity there is beauty and strength. We should all know that diversity makes for a rich tapestry and we must understand that all the threads of the tapestry are equal in value no matter their color; equal in importance no matter their texture.”
HJK
Lecture 50 Cold drinks versus ground water Speaker: Dr. D.K. Chadha (Former Chair, Central Ground Water Board) Chair: Prof. Rajesh Kochhar; Director, Nistads 5 August 2004 Water wars On 7 April 2003 the 15-member Perumatty Grama Panchayat decided not to renew the industrial license issued to the Hindustan Coca-Cola Beverages Private Limited (HCBPL) on the ground of "protecting public interest". The Panchayat charged the Company, which had a Coca-Cola factory running in village Plachimada with "causing shortage of drinking water in the area through over-exploitation of ground water sources". This triggered a chain of events and set off a countrywide debate on the issue of ownership rights over groundwater. It was therefore rightly so that Dr. D.K. Chaddha, Former Chairman of the Central Groundwater Authority (CGWA), was called upon to deliver a lecture, entitled `Cold Drinks Versus Groundwater’, giving an insight into the brewing controversy.
The Kerala incident once again brought into sharp focus the issue of ownership rights over groundwater and threw up several questions. Who is the custodian of the ground water? Where is the constitutional provision to exploit the ground water and then sell it also? Do the panchayats have the right to sanction a plant in a water scarcity area? Who has given the authority to all these people to sanction a plant and get it closed later on?
Dr. Chaddha informed that by law the groundwater belongs to the person who owns the land. The first reference came in 1882 which said all ground water found in private property is fully under control of the owner of the land who is free to extract and use as he or she deems fit. But as the amount of groundwater that can be exploited does not depend on the amount of land owned, there are no limits to the amount of water that can be extracted. Exploitation would simply depend on the money available to drill deep, electricity for pumping and the water available in the aquifers below. Therefore, it was made clear that the person who owns the land has the water right to the extent that it gets annually recharged; if he over uses it then the authorities constituted to protect the ground water can notify the area banning any further infringement on the ground water
Before HCBPL started bottling operations in 1999, the wells in the colony used to meet the needs of the neighboring colony too. Now the village claims that the bottling plant is draining water from their wells, drying up their ponds and adversely affecting the lives of more than 2,000 families who depend on the underground water for crops. Besides, the water tastes bitter and has become polluted with pesticides.
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Dr Chaddha informed that the High Court of Kerala listening to the matter of groundwater use by Coca Cola opined that the use of water is free only in case the same is used for domestic or agricultural use by the owner and since groundwater belongs to the public, its commercial use has to be adequately restricted and even in the absence of any law governing groundwater, the panchayat and the state are bound to protect groundwater from excessive exploitation. The amount of water that can be extracted has to be decided by the panchayat but such extraction cannot affect the availability of drinking water in the neighbourhood.
The plant was drawing five lakh liters of water per day. This was obviously going to have some impact around the region. “They draw four liters of water for one liter of mineral water,” said Dr Chaddha. “Three times the water is just wasted.”
People in Plachimada village alleged that though these companies are extracting huge amounts of groundwater they are not being charged anything for using the water. The only charge they pay is a meager amount as water cess, which is being levied by the State Pollution Control Board.
There is a need to differentiate here between companies that use water for process needs and those that use the water as a raw material, informed Dr. Chaddha. Companies using water for process needs use surface water. But soft drink companies use groundwater because it is free from turbidity and suspended particles. Therefore, the treatment cost of groundwater is far less than that for surface water. Besides, the companies that use water for process needs discharge almost the same amount as treated wastewater, so there is no consumption of water in this industry. They pay cess on the amount of wastewater discharged. But in the case of soft drink companies and bottled water companies, part of the water is consumed. But currently the companies are not required to pay for the groundwater they consume since it is assumed that the landowner owns the groundwater below and has full rights to exploit it.
Dr. Chaddha emphasized that there has to be some regulatory control over the use of water by companies exploiting the groundwater resources. They must pay for the water they consume and also ensure that the water that is bottled and taken away is recharged through rainwater harvesting.
HJK
Lecture 51 Ayurveda: How effective and safe is it? Speaker: Dr. Ashok Vaidya (Medical & Research Director, Bhartiya Vidya Bhavan’s Swami Prakashananda Ayurveda Research Centre (SPARC), Mumbai) Chair: Dr. Vasantha Muthuswamy; Senior Deputy Director-General, Indian Council of Medical Research 24 August 2004 See in Article at pp.5-8.
Lecture 52 Why do monsoon predictions fail? Speaker: Shri S.K. Subramanian (Dy. Director General of Meteorology) Chair: Shri Ajit Mozoomdar; Former Secretary to Government of India; Fellow, Centre for Policy Research 14 September 2004 Prediction problems Although the monsoon is essentially a wind phenomenon, nowhere in the world are the monsoons so synonymous with rains as in India. Many regions of the world have their own monsoons such as Africa, Southeast Asia, East Asia, and even Australia. In India, there is a certain
mystique attached to the monsoon, not only because it heralds the onset of much awaited rains after the scorching summer heat but also because economic growth tends to be so interlinked with a good monsoon. So it is not only the farmers who are looking skywards during this time of the year but also economists.
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Another species that has come to almost dread the monsoons is that of the weather forecasters. Every year the monsoon tends to play hide-and-seek, seldom letting the weatherman know about its whereabouts. This virtually becomes a headache for the weatherman as even a single wrong prediction about the onset of the monsoon draws a lot of flak and often makes it to the front page of newspapers.
For an economy based on agriculture, such as India's, the importance of accurate prediction and modeling cannot be overstated. Accurate predictions would allow farmers to pick the best time to plant crops in order to take advantage of the rains. Besides, advance warning of a too intense monsoon that could result in severe flooding, crop destruction and the displacement of thousands or even millions of people also works to the advantage of planners. And so does warning about a bad monsoon that could signal drought.
And so it was that we had Dr S.K. Subramanian, Deputy Director-General, India Meteorological Department holding forth on the life-giving status of the monsoon, the vagaries of the monsoon and the problems in predicting its onset with a great deal of accurateness. He reiterated the already well-known belief that life in India revolves around the monsoon. “Our economy was once said to be a gamble on the monsoon,” he said. The monsoon is India’s prime source of water too.
Dr Subramanian informed that it had never happened that the monsoon had completely failed to turn up. “What is different each year is the dates of its onset and withdrawal and the pattern of the rainfall over the country. But then this is what makes all the difference between a good monsoon and a bad monsoon,” he said. This may lead to droughts on the one hand and floods on the other.
Dr Subramanian then went on to briefly outline the life cycle of the monsoon. The Indian Ocean monsoon winds blow from the southwest during summer (wet) and from the northeast in winter (dry). In March and April the Indian sub-continent begins to heat up, so by May some of the highest surface temperature of the year occur. This dramatic heat-up causes a large difference between land surface temperature and sea surface temperature, resulting in a reversal of winds from seaward (towards the sea) to land-ward (towards the land). During the monsoon period a large low-pressure cell exists over southwest Asia, intensified by the location of the Himalayas and Hindu Kush mountains that trap warm air within the Indian
Ocean basin. This low-pressure cell cause intense winds to blow from the southwest.
Attempts to forecast the monsoon have been underway for centuries. In the months prior to the expected start of the rainy season, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) goes into hypermode as all sections of the society wait expectantly for the news of the arrival of the monsoons. The IMD predicts the onset date and rainfall potential of the monsoon using a statistical model that evaluates 16 "precursor" conditions, which indicate the potential strength of the monsoon circulation. Of the 16 parameters used, 6 regard temperature conditions, 3 wind or pressure field values, 5 pressure anomalies, and 2 snow cover. This statistical model aids in long-range forecasting. Long range forecasting can be attempted to some extent because the variability of the surface boundary layer extends over many seasons and also because land surface characteristics persist longer.
The problem lies with short-range forecasts, informed Dr Subramanian. Because of the chaotic nature of atmospheric processes, weather forecasts cannot be made beyond two weeks. Statistical correlations become weaker as we go to smaller time and space scales. Besides, statistical models cannot predict onset and progression of the monsoon over the country, the times and durations of dry and wet spells during the monsoon season and seasonal monsoon rainfall over small areas like states, sub-divisions or districts.
Improving prediction would depend on understanding the complex processes that determine the progress of the monsoon. There are, however, still major gaps in the availability of data needed for this purpose. Indian scientists are continually working to create improved forecasting models. One view by a section of scientists in the trade holds that it is because of the unusually high number of parameters used in the model used by IMD that predictions are not wholly accurate. They emphasize that not more than three predictors should be used. But which ones, is a question that still needs to be answered.
Very recently, the Minister of State for Science & Technology, Shri Kapil Sibbal, informed about efforts being made to acquire sophisticated and expensive equipments to aid in more accurate weather forecasts. Until then we might have to live with the vagaries of the monsoon and the vagaries of monsoon prediction too.
HJK
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Car exports from India; Apr. – Oct. 2004.
India exported a total of 92,889 cars in April-October 2004 (up 47% from the same period last year). Segment-wise break-up is as follows.
Apr-Oct’04-05
Sales (Units) Chg%
A1 (Mini)1 4,226 -23.0A2 (Compact)2 70,366 85.5A3 (Mid Size)3 18,263 -6.4A5 (Premium) 34 112.5Total 92,889 47.5 1Maruti 800 2Maruti’s Alto; Zen and Wagon R. Hyndai’s Santro and Tata Motors’ Indica. 3Ikon; Indigo; Esteem and Accent
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CONFERENCES ORGANISED AT NISTADS National Technology Day 2004 New Delhi, 11 May On the occasion of National Technology Day, a seminar was organised under the theme of ‘Towards socially sensitive technologies’ at NISTADS on 11 May 2004. Prof. Rajesh Kochhar, Director Nistads, delivered the Welcome address. Ms. Anuradha Shukla, Scientist from Central Road Research Institute (CRRI), New Delhi delivered a lecture on ‘Environmental pollution due to
road transport’. Various aspects of environmental pollution due to road transport were presented. She dwelled upon the subject of air and noise pollution due to road transport. In the interactive session various current issues such as ‘zero sulphur diesel policy and its implecations’ were discussed. After the lecture there was an open discussion followed by tea.
MEDIA TALK Mr. Rajiv Mehrotra ‘In Conversation’ with Prof. Rajesh Kochhar on Doordarshan 31 July 2004 Mr. Rajiv Mehrotra: Welcome to my series of ‘In conversation’ with men and women whose ideas, visions and philosophy define our contemporary world. My guest today has been described as one of India’s distinguished scientists. Though he is an astrophysicist by vocation, he has applied scientific temper to whole range of social and economic issues. He is currently the Director of National Institute of Science, Technology and Development Studies. I am delighted to welcome Prof. Rajesh Kochhar. Prof. Rajesh Kochhar: Thank you. Mr. Rajiv Mehrotra (RM): You are an astrophysicist by training and vocation, and were in Bangalore for many years and yet one amongst recent books of yours has been on the ‘Vedic People’. Prof. Rajesh Kochhar (RK): I still remember, in 1980, there was a news item in Times of India. An excavation was done in Ayodhaya, and the heading of the news item was “Ramayana is later than Mahabharata”. It’s a very well known archaeological fact that Mahabharata-named sites are older than Ramayana-named sites. And a thought struck me: ‘it can’t be so’. The mythology says Rama was prior to Krishna, and there is no reason for mythology to lie. So I started looking into the problem. I first looked at Ramayana, Mahabharata, and Puranas; but I found that Puranas were not very dependable. To know more, one must go to the Vedic corpus. When you go to Vedic corpus, you find that Rigveda is associated with Avesta, so you should look at that also. It was like a backward integration, but was a very educative exercise. I say so, because, I learnt the subject while writing this book. Very often people work in a discipline for many years and then write a book. Here the idea of book struck first. RM: So then an aspiration of this book for someone so steeped in science was to bring scientific method into analysis. Because you said that there was no reason for mythology to lie, but our history had centuries and
decades of evolution. Very often the mythology has adapted the political impulses. So how do you reconcile the belief that mythology does not lie with, perhaps, the empirical discoveries of science. RK: At any given time there is some knowledge which people consider to be the scientific knowledge, although the term is a modern one and I don’t think any mythology would contradict what was considered to be the material knowledge at that time. RM: Much conflict between religions and traditions has drawn upon this aspect of historical accuracy or the empirical notion that the temple or masjid was here or not. This seems to assume larger than — life proportion. So what is the role of scientific method in these areas? RK: My own belief is that history is a very difficult subject to study. It’s much easier to study Science, for example. And the reason is very simple; the scientific forces of nature act the same way on all particles. For example, you take one particle and study its behaviour and you know it is typical of the whole system but, when you are looking at the historical events, it’s not possible to say how typical a historical event is. Therefore, when you interpret a historical evidence, you have to have a framework. But as a student of science first and foremost, there should not be any dispute on the event itself. Dispute should be on its significance and the fact does remain that throughout the history, history has been used to legitimize the current contemporary issue that is the fact of life, like, kings have tried to trace their lineage back to the Han and Jupiter and Raghuvansh. When the British set up Empire, they sought legitimacy by treating Greece as the origin of the civilization. They would not look at the pre-Greek origin that would bring them into Asia and Africa. RM: Isn’t this somewhat ironical and something which you have articulated that the Archaeological Survey of
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India, a scientific enterprise, comes under the Ministry of Culture rather than that of Science? What is its implication, you think? RK: I think the Archaeological Survey of India should be shifted to Ministry of Science and Technology, because archeology provides the evidence which is the touch stone, which defines the framework for interpretation of the historical evidence. The rigour of archaeological evidence is best achieved by decoupling it from ‘Culture’. Let culture people, and historical people use archaeological evidence, but archaeological evidence should stand on its own; it should have that rigour and my worry is loss of rigour, and loss of scientific credibility is a very big loss. We are used to historians fighting with each other, but as a student of science I would not like archaeological evidence to be brought into this ‘repute’, because that loss would be a great loss. RM: You applied scientific method to many areas. You have been responsible for setting up a Museum for Dhokra Art. What is the application of science here in an ancient artistic tradition? RK: Dhokra Art is the most ancient craft of metal casting with lost-wax technique. Originally it was in the hands of tribal people, because the tribal people were the ones who lived where the minerals were. Then two things happened: (i) other people picked up this craft from tribal communities, and (ii) was formalized in South India. As for example, the famous Chaula bronze is made by this technique. Our Institute happened to have a field station in Bankura and that is how we came into contact with these people. There is a continuation of probably five thousand years of crafts in India, but these people are extremely poor. And it occurred to us that we should be obliged to these people for preserving this craft against heavy odds. If they were to give it up, the loss would be to humankind. RM: You know there is a popular perception that the process a modern production, the process of science actually, ends up diluting traditional arts, crafts, and handicraft in many ways. So, what kind of intervention you are looking for actually to reinforce that tradition? RK: It is not that there is a danger of overwhelming them. If I use the concept of equilibrium state, and if you take them along, then if any traditional craft has survived, it
must have undergone a change. So, what we are looking for is the continuity embedded in a change. We are not at all interfering with their art form. A Dhokra craftsman is an artist first. He makes his icon first in wax. That is why Chaula bronze has such vitality, such fluidity because it is in wax. And you replace wax with molten metal. We are trying to help them in improving their metallurgy, improving their casting technique, and we are not interfering at all with their art work. We tell them that if you use this type of furnace, the results will be better. Moreover, these people have no concept of measurement. If they make a four-legged thing, it is not necessary that four legs will be on a plain. RM: But it is important and useful to introduce this notion of measurement into their creative process. It might not have intruded in their imagination. RK: No, they are very poor and they like it. It is not that we are forcing it upon them. I give you an example. I went to a village in Bankura. One artifact was shown to me by a shilpi. I said, “It is good”. He said, “No”. I asked what was wrong with it. He pointed at the artifact and said, “It is burnt here, it is broken here”. Thus, he knew what was wrong with it. I asked, then why did you make it. The answer was, “We can’t afford to re-do it as we are paid so little.” So this assumption that traditional art is a static, a fossilized one is wrong. Our aim is not to overwhelming them. RM: You have been a critic of using globalization against scientific method and empiricism. In some ways it seems almost contradiction because we have come to associate globalization with the modern, with the contemporary, as we do with science and we are looking at Dhokra art which also in some ways as seen is the victim of globalization, mass production and standardization. What is your primary critique of the impact of globalization? RK: First of all globalization has its virtual, like we have set up a Dhokra Museum. We are now setting up a ‘Virtual Museum’ on the net. And one way of helping these Dhokra craftmen or any craftsman is making use of internet for finding international customers for their products. Because that, after all the work we are doing, belongs to the humankind as a whole. So, it is not that I am against globalization. RM: But you have argued that what globalization has created. You have used wonderful phrases like ‘techno
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coolies’. You have argued that the Indian economy is not able to as a whole, sustain globalization and it is creating. It is really sustaining the elites. What kind of process you have used to arrive at this statement? RK: Globalization is inevitable today, but I think India is yielding more ground than is necessary. The globalization asks you to bend and there is no reason for you to crawl and the point which I have made as it happened in India, globalization took place or started at the same time as of Mandalisation. And Mandalisation involved transfer of powers to middling castes; so far they were marginalized and more so, the loss of space for the upper castes in the class room has been a devastating thing for them. Upper castes are using globalization as a pretext to decouple themselves from the rest of country. Of all the aspects of globalization, the one which the middle class are using the most is access to consumer goods of western standards. Indian economy can’t sustain that standard of living. And two things are happening: one is that there is a tremendous drain on national economy through the Fifth Pay Commission, through corruption, through privatization of education, lack of space in class room and the like; for all these things people require money and that money is not available through legitimate means. The other thing which we are doing is the petty jobbery for the West. RM: The ‘Techno-coolies’……….. RK: I think ‘Techno-babu’ is a better phrase than ‘Techno coolies’, because a certain amount of insult reflects in coolie and people may react. Like British called Mahatma Gandhi coolie in South Africa, and see what happened to the Empire. But a ‘Babu’ is happy with the term. He doesn’t revolt. So, I would prefer to use ‘Techno-babu’ than ‘techno-coolie’. It is a remarkable thing that our unlettered semi-skilled workers, who go to the Gulf, are sending as much money as our IT services are earning. And our most IT professionals are under-employed and to me globalization should mean that people with equal qualifications anywhere in the world should be earning more or less the same amount. So, I think one aspect of globalization which worries me is the decoupling of the middle class from rest of the country. And if a country looses the services of its middle class, I don’t think it can have much of a future. And educated people, skilled people, should earn their living through Science and Technology and unfortunately, “S&T” in
India is ceasing to be ‘Science and Technology’, and it is coming to mean more and more as ‘Services and Trade’. Maybe I am old fashioned. RM: You being an astrophysicist by training and preparation and spending so much of your life being a distinguished scientist and travelling across world, lecturing, and writing papers suddenly begin to look at issues which are not in that sense pure science, why? RK: It happened by chance. I tell you how it began. Very many years ago our Director, at Indian Institute of Astrophysics, Bangalore, felt that we should have a brochure on the Institute and he asked me to prepare it. I thought that first section of the brochure should be on a brief history of the Institute. It was known that our Institute was set up by the East India Company in the 18th century. When I started looking at the history I found that there was hardly any information readily available, so I went deeper and deeper into it. It became a research topic, and in fact I was able to make corrections in even the Gazetteer which had been brought out in 1905 and so on. So, from the history of modern astronomy to the history of modern science in India, and sociology of that became my passion.
RM: Did you somehow feel that science in India was removed, was isolated, didn’t address everyday issues, that is striving of the Institute that you now head. To see that the public discourse in science could be intensified, people become more sensitive to issues of science, you now talked about imperative of cultivating scientific temper. Where do we stand today? RK: If you take any indicator, standard indicator like number of papers published, there is certainly stagnation in Indian scientific output, snf there is no doubt about it. But my greater worry is ‘science education’ and I would judge a country not so much by its research output as by the quality of its science textbooks. And I have my feeling that five years from now you will not be able to teach science at High School or Plus-two level. Secondly, there is not only a decline in science education and scientific research, there is a decline in scholarship in general. And why it is so, why people are not interested in science, it is a serious matter. RM: Why do you think this is the case? What is your aspiration for science in India both in terms of education,
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in terms of its ability to accelerate the process of development and eradicate poverty? RK: I think we should pay most attention not to scientific research but to science education, right from school level, because by the time students come for research, it is already too late. Today, India has an advantage, India has very good facilities in new biology which will be a research area for the next two or three decades. And India is pretty good in it. RM: Are not we handicapped by the fact that very often science is seen as anti-thesis to tradition? RK: I don’t think so. I don’t think there is any contradiction between science and tradition and I don’t think scientific progress is affected by any tradition. RM: How would you describe this Nehruwian phrase of ‘scientific temper’? What is scientific temper? RK: Frankly speaking I am too in favour of the phrase, I don’t think we need specific efforts on scientific temper. What we need is education, and use of science in production of wealth. We need science in governance, in dispensation of justice and then we will respect science. But even today Indian economy, and Indian political stability depends on monsoon. So, when you depend on nature for your political stability, and economic well being, people tend to be fatalistic. I don’t think scientific temper needs to be taught as an add on if production of wealth in India depended on science and technology and if governance depended on science and technology. People will develop automatically what has been called a scientific temper. RM: To what degree do you think science is in that sense a moral in relationship of science and the cultivation of values? RK: These are two different things. Science has no moral of its own. I will give you an example which is not very well-known. There was a Committee in US which decided to drop nuclear bombs on Japan, The Committee had two scientists on it, and there was only one person in
that Committee who opposed dropping of the bombs and that person was not a scientist. I think that person was Under-Secretary for Navy. So it was a military man who opposed dropping of bombs, while the scientist supported. So human values for the ethical framework which a society has is not in-built into science. Science is like a picture which has to be framed within that ethical framework which the society provides to it. Science itself cannot provide that framework. This ethical dilemma has become very important now because of development of new biology. Earlier when there was an ethical problem in science, it was ‘man against man’, “my patriotism is your devastation”, for example. But now, it is ‘man against God’, ‘man against nature’, like cloning, modification of life at molecular level and so on.
RM: What do you say, the ultimate triumph is that of science or God. Are they in opposition? RK: I was using ‘God’ in a very loose sense; the best word to be used is “nature”. Science is setting up humanbeings against nature now. Because for the first time, humanbeings are in a position to modify the very building blocks of nature, building blocks of life, nobody knows where it would lead to. RM: What is man’s place in this, what is your place in this scheme of God, Nature and Science? RK: God made the universe. You could have put your own science, saying ‘Beware I am here!’ You could have incorporated into humanbeings a genetic code of, “Belief in God”. It does not happen. So, God has given some territory to humanbeings, and left them alone; He does not interfere in that territory. So humanbeing are to conduct their affairs themselves, there is no devine intervention. Humanbeings, to deal with each other, need an ethical framework. Without an ethical framework, which is imposed on all human beings, we would not know how to deal each other, and what to expect from other humanbeings. So the civilizational of ethical framework is important to define science. More so, globalisation has meant retreat of state throughout the world; and earlier, the state was looking after civilizational interest to an extent, not any more.
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CONFERENCE REPORTS 13th international conference on Management of technology — New directions in technology management: Changing collaboration between government, industry and university (IAMOT 2004) Washington, DC, USA, 3-7 April 2004 Santanu Roy The 13th International Conference on Management of Technology (IAMOT 2004) with the theme ‘New Directions in Technology Management: Changing Collaboration between Government, Industry and University’ was organized during 3rd to 7th April, 2004.at Washington, DC. This was the Official Conference of The International Association for Management of Technology (IAMOT). The conference was hosted by the International Association for Management of Technology in collaboration with the University of Miami, USA, IIE, Ecole Polytechnique de Montreal, Canada, University of Maryland, USA, and University of Central Florida, USA and was held at the Hyatt Hotel in Washington, DC, USA.
The International Association for Management of Technology (IAMOT) is the leading professional organization solely devoted to the education, research, and application of Technology Management. The Management of Technology field is concerned with the integration of technology and business strategies to create wealth, enhance competitiveness, increase work opportunities and improve the quality of life. They yearly International Conference held under the auspices of the Association is considered to be one of the largest international gatherings of the World’s leading experts in this emerging field.
The world today is characterized by a fast pace of technological change. Technologies are becoming more complex and there is a very high cost incurred in technology creation and development. These factors require the formation of cooperative efforts and alliances among the various stake holders where they can share the risks and rewards. The theme of this year’s conference, ‘New Directions in Technology Management: Changing Collaboration between Government, Industry and University’, was intended to provide a special focus on the importance of collaborative efforts among various entities. The papers that were presented in the conference
and the discussions that took place in the IAMOT 2004 conference were useful in taking this debate forward.
The conference had brought together leading policy makers, academics concerned with the design and implementation of national and international science and technology policy; R&D managers in funding agencies, in universities, in research institutes, and in the business sector; information scientists and statisticians, researchers in the field of technology management studies to exchange ideas about theory, methods and applications in the area of technology management. The conference had provided a learning atmosphere where practitioners could keep aware of current developments and researchers could learn about and build on each other’s work. The conference had also provided networking opportunities in large and small group settings. Currently I am engaged in carrying out research on R&D and innovation management where using the insights provided by different thoughts on technology management comprise an important sub-area. The paper presented in the conference forms part of the research output of the work. Attending the conference was immensely beneficial to me in enhancing my knowledge in this field with active interactions with leading researchers.
Specifically, the following issues discussed were of importance:
• Knowledge management. • Strategic competencies for sustainable
development. • Innovation and new product development. • Areas of rapid technological change. • Technology foresight and forecasting. • Integration of technology and business strategies. • Theory of technology. National systems for
technology development. • Virtual Organizations and Partnerships/E-
Commerce.
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The conference was inaugurated by Prof. Tarek M. Khalil, University of Miami and President, IAMOT. In his opening remarks he talked about the growth of the Association, its guiding principles and the progress made by it in various fields. This was followed by a meeting of the Management of Technology (MOT) Education Forum. It was chaired by Prof. Yasser Hosni. He defined the concept of MOT as ‘the art of maintaining the mature, nurturing the new, and forecasting the future technology’. This was followed by the Plenary Sessions. The first keynote speech was by Dr. Jan Jackman, General Manager, IBM. She spoke on ‘Retail on demand: Transforming the Customer Experience’. According to her, retailers, over time, will exploit an increasingly diverse range of technologies – both within and outside the store – to improve and differentiate the shopping experience for their customers. She refereed to the future plans of IBM in this area. Another keynote speech was deliverdd by Dr. Jan Aase, Director, Product Development Research Laboratory, General Motors. He talked about the initiatives taken up by his company to develop their ability to assimilate and apply new exciting technologies to their product portfolio at a faster pace. Then there was a Special Session on ‘Ethics of Technology Management’ where Dr. Robert Mason of the University of Florida and Dr. Rias van Wyk of the University of Minnesota madfe their points on the subject.
The conference was divided into various parallel sessions depending upon the theme tracks. Some of the noteworthy papers were ‘Action Learning for Managing Hybrid R&D Organizations’, by P. Wagner of ARC Systems Research, ‘R&D Management in Large Italian Firms: Recent Changes in Strategy and Organization’ by A. Piccaluga, F. Cesaroni and A. Di Minin, and ‘Technology Investment Strategy: The Vision of Technology’. My paper that was presented in the conference was entitled ‘Probing the Value Space: An Empirical Study of Personal Value System of Indian Scientists’.
I had chaired a session on ‘R&D Management’ on April 5, 2004 during 1100-1230 hours. Five papers were presented in the session. Among them were ‘Outsourcing R&D Module of a New Developing Technology’ by P. Lindgaard of Denmark, ‘Real Optiions Logic in R&D Investments: Some Empirical Evidence’ by J. Salonen of Denmark, and ‘Constructing R&D Profiles: Toward a Theory of Diversity of Research Organizations’ by G. Jordan of USA.
The ways and means to spread the field of Technology Management - both methodologically and empirically, comprised major recommendations of the conference. There were proposals to enlarge its scope in the field of education, developing new course contents and bringing out a journal on Technology Management by IAMOT.
International Congress of Psychology Beijing, 8-13 August 2004 Neelam Kumar A paper entitled ‘The place of psychology of science in science studies: a swing from Logic of Scientific Discovery and Structures of Scientific Revolutions to The Cognitive Turn’ was presented in an invited symposium at International Congress of Psychology, August 8-13, 2004, Beijing, China. This paper discussed the status of psychology as a sub-discipline of science studies in light of the ideas of Popper, Kuhn and a few contemporary scholars.
The conference was hosted by the Chinese Psychological Society, under the auspices of the International Union of Psychological Science (IUPsyS), a member of the International Council for Science (ICSU). The congress covers all the relevant spheres of psychology, with an emphasis on psychology and culture. The International Congress of Psychology is in fact a unique gathering of international psychologists from all disciplines within psychology and as such provides a
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comprehensive up-to-date overview of the developments within and challenges facing every area of psychology (and the related disciplines) during the new century.
The International Congress of Psychology brings together distinguished psychologists from all over the world for Invited lectures, Keynote and the State-of-the-Art addresses. Beijing congress organized a Special
Address by Daniel Kahneman, Nobel Laureate (for having integrated insights from psychological research into economic science, especially concerning human judgment and decision-making under uncertainty). This Congress was unique in that International Congress of Psychology was for the first time held in an Asian developing country.
4th international conference of International entrepreneurship forum – Entrepreneurship: Contexts, locales and values (IEF 2004) Paris, France, 22-24 September 2004 Santanu Roy The 4th International Conference of the International Entrepreneurship Forum (IEF 2004) with the theme ‘Entrepreneurship: Contexts, Locales and Values’, was organized during 22nd September to 24th September, 2004 at Paris, France. This was the official conference of The International Entrepreneurship Forum (IEF). The conference was hosted by the University of Paris Dauphine, University of Essex, Southend, UK, and the OECD LEED Programme and it was held the Hotel Novotel Seine in Paris, France.
The International Entrepreneurship Forum (IEF) was founded in October 2000 and has members from 15 countries. The IEF is s forum of academics, policy makers and practitioners, who are brought together to discuss and interact with each other on issues related to entrepreneurship policy, research, education and training.
Following its launch in Birmingham, UK in 2000, IEF organized its first conference in Naples, Italy in June 2001 on the theme of ‘Entrepreneurship and Learning’. The second conference with the theme of ‘Entrepreneurship and Regional Development’ was held in Beijing during 5-7 September 2002, and this was followed by the third conference with its theme of ‘Entrepreneurial Innovation’ in Bangalore, India. Each of these highly successful and distinctive events was organized in partnership with leading institutions in host countries, including Federico II University of Naples in Italy, the Academy of Management Sciences, Sino Monitor Ltd and the Academy of management Sciences in China, and the NS Raghavan Centre for
Entrepreneurial Learning (NSRCEL), Indian Institute of Management Bangalore, India.
The IEF is now working in conjunction with the OECD Local Economic and Employment Development (LEED) Forum for Entrepreneurship. The LEED Forum is chaired by Mr Francois Hurel, and Professor Jay Mitra is the Scientific Co-ordinator. Within the framework of the LEED Forum’s activities and its new OECD Trento Centre, and important new initiative on ‘Education and Enterprise and the Role of Universities’ has been launched in 2003-4.
The main objectives of the IEF are: • To explore the scope and value of
entrepreneurship in all walks of life. • To examine ways in which small and medium
sized enterprises, large firms, and the public and voluntary sectors, together operate as key players in different entrepreneurial environments.
• To explore ways in which entrepreneurship helps to change mindsets to better understand and cope with uncertainty and complexity in a highly competitive environment.
• To investigate issues, methods, tools and outcomes related to entrepreneurship activities – from research, education, training and personal development.
• To enable partnerships among participants and the development of new projects to support entrepreneurship development.
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• To establish international entrepreneurship as the standard for entrepreneurship research, education, and policy.
This particular conference on ‘Entrepreneurship: Contexts, Locales and Values’ was a significant initiative of the IEF working in partnership with University of Paris Dauphine.
The conference theme reflects highly topical and critical issues shaping entrepreneurship policy, research, education and training. The idea of the significance of the context in which entrepreneurship is nurtured and in which it thrives, is crucial to our understanding of how innovative people launch new ventures in particular environments. In this regard both organizational and geographical contexts are relevant, as they include the institutions, key stakeholders, the knowledge base, culture and values that inform entrepreneurial activity. Inherent in these contexts is the social capital that influences and enables the harnessing of economic resources through connected people and organizations. The interaction of different contexts (at local, regional, and international levels) suggests that there are spatial economic, institutional and sociological perspectives. Consideration of these perspectives, individually and together, allow for the realization of values specific drawn from these perspectives and peculiar to the different contexts.
Research, empirical evidences, policy developments and the practice of entrepreneurship in different contexts, are critical to our understanding of the entrepreneurship process. This conference provides a platform for the presentation, discussion and deliberation of ideas and evidence relating to the conference theme.
The conference had provided a learning atmosphere where practitioners could keep aware of current developments and researchers could learn about and build on each other’s work. The conference had also provided networking opportunities in large and small group settings. Attending the conference was immensely beneficial to me in enhancing my knowledge in this field with active interactions with leading researchers.
Two streams of papers were presented in the conference: papers based on academic research (conceptual or empirical); and papers based on policy based and/or practitioners’ reflections. There were four discussion areas: entrepreneurial people and their values; entrepreneurial organizations and their values; regional contexts and regional social capital for enterprise creation and innovation; and social values for and economic benefit through entrepreneurship.
Specifically, the following issues discussed were of importance:
• The social values of entrepreneurial people. • Entrepreneurial typologies and values. • Corporate contexts, corporate values and
entrepreneurship. • The organizational context of entrepreneurial
learning in large and small firms. • The regional context of entrepreneurship and
innovation. • Regional entrepreneurship policies. • Innovations by start-up companies. • Diversity and entrepreneurship. • The context of gender and ethnicity in
entrepreneurship. • Social entrepreneurship. • Cultural values and entrepreneurship. • Feminine values and entrepreneurial activity. • Entrepreneurial history. • Social innovation and entrepreneurship culture. • The value of creativity in different contexts • Pan-organizational forms to support
entrepreneurship – networks, clusters • Technology, entrepreneurship and innovation The conference was inaugurated by Prof. Bernard de
Montmorillon, President, University of Paris Dauphine, France. The keynote speakers were Dr. Catherine Leger-Jarniou, Director, Centre for Entrepreneurship, University of Paris Dauphine, Prof. Michael Shere, Pro-Vice Chancellor, University of Essex, Southend, UK, and Prof. Jay Mitra, Founder Professor of Business Enterprise and Innovation, University of Essex, Southend, UK. There were plenary sessions on ‘Entrepreneurship in the Regions’, ‘The Role of Institutions and Policy in Supporting Entrepreneurship’, and ‘Diverse Institutional Relationships for Entrepreneurship’.
The conference was divided into various parallel sessions depending upon the theme tracks. In her paper ‘Understanding Corrupt Behavior of Entrepreneurs: Impact of Cultural Values and Attitudes’, Varuthi Tonoyan, Institute for Small Business Research, University of Mannheim, Germany sets out to explore the cultural values and attitudes of entrepreneurs as determinants of their corrupt behaviour. The paper ties to provide an explanation of culturally embedded values and attitudes which either harbour or prevent corrupt business practices in Eastern vs. Western European economies. In their paper ‘Entrepreneurial Behaviours and Performance:
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Guidelines for Business and Economic Development in Polish Organizations’, Mariusz Bratnicki, Monika Kulikowska and Izabela Marzec of the Karol Adamiecki University of Economics, Katowics, Poland, presents a theoretical framework for describing the relations between entrepreneurial behaviours and effectiveness. The authors presented the results of an empirical research carried out in 117 Polish enterprises. The ai8m of the study carried out by Mika Pasanen of the University of Kuopio, Department of Business and Management, Finland was to identify the factors affecting performance of small and medium enterprises (SME) and to reveal the empirical configuration of SMEs that holistically describe conditions and circumstances related to their performance in peripheral regions (with data from 145 SMEs in Eastern Finland). Three distinct strategic configurations of successful SMEs emerged: (1) stable, independent survivors with no growth aspirations, operating in local markets; (2) innovators with continuous growth, operating in growing markets; and (3) efficacy-oriented networkers with leapwise growth. Rainer Schwarz and Frant Sconeborn of the Department of Managerial Economics, Management Accounting and Control Systems,
Brandenburg University of Technology, Cottbus, Germany have developed a system dynamics model that captures the main assets a small start-up firm needs for its development. The paper by Prue Cruickshank and Deborah Rolland of Unitec, New Zealand explores the contribution of social relations and communication networks to the production of social capital that enhances entrepreneurial business enterprise in New Zealand. My paper ‘Networking Strategy for Technology Transfer and Commercialization from R&D Laboratories: Key Lessons from Case Studies in India’ was presented in the session on ‘Commercialization Processes’.
The major recommendations of the conference centred around the question of the spread of the field of Entrepreneurship and how to incorporate the subject in the field of education, especially at the Masters levels, as different from traditional MBA programmes.
Another recommendation of the conference was that collaborative research work on the conceptualization and development of Entrepreneurship should be strengthened with identified experts and research groups in universities and research centres in different countries.
Eight international conference on Science and technology indicators Leiden, The Netherlands, 23-25 September 2004 Sujit Bhattacharya The Eight International Conference on Science & Technology Indicators was held in Leiden, the Netherlands from 23 to 25 September 2004. This is a biannual conference and attracts leading policy makers, R&D managers, science publishers and editors as well as representations from OECD, UNESCO European Commission, NSF and other institutions engaged in national/regional/global studies employing S&T indicators. The eight S&T Conferences also attracted the above interested participants. There were four Indian participants in this conference. The conference was organized around the following main themes:
• Trends and challenges in the development of novel, advanced S&T indicators,
• Application & usefulness of advanced S&T indicators,
• S&T indicators in the electronic environment, • Combining quantitative and qualitative
approaches, • S&T indicators for the assessment of socio-
economic impact of R&D, • S&T indicators for social and industrial
innovation. The conference had invited plenary lectures addressing issues of user needs in policy & management, and innovative S&T indicators. The conference covered selected presentations organized under different sessions, dealing mainly with recent and novel applications of S&T
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indicators. The abstracts of the selected papers were brought out as book of abstracts. Three important journals Research Policy, Research Evaluation, and Scientometrics intend to cover the papers presented in this conference after further review. There were four sessions on the first day, 23rd of September. Opening of the conference was followed by three sessions: presentation of handbook, general perspectives, and S&T interface. Handbook presentation was a special session as the ‘Handbook of Quantitative Science & Technology’ edited by Henk Moed (Leiden University), Wolfgang Glanzel (Cathollic University, Leuvan), and Ulrich Schmoch (Fraunhofer Institute ISI, Karlsruhe) was released on this occasion. The initiative to bring out the handbook was taken with the objective of inviting contributions from experts to cover the seminal issues in S&T indicators - methodological aspects, applicability and caveats in their usage; studies that have provided important policy inputs, etc. The conference hosts had played an important part in organising contributions for this handbook. Individual presentations were made by the three editors to provide detailed overview of the contents of the handbook. Some more presentations were made from contributors of this handbook.
There were six parallel session on the next day. The six sessions (one session was in continuation) were on:
S&T indicators for policy making, bibliometrics beyond ISI, funding and its effect, human resource management, actor networks, peer review studies. On the concluding day, there were two sessions: national studies, science productivity and its determinants.
I had two contributions in this conference. The first contribution was with K.C.Garg, Bharvi Dutt, and S.C.Sharma titled ‘what do patent citations reveal?: Investigating the pattern of examiner and applicant citations’. This paper examined the characteristics of examiner and applicant citations in Indian patents. The paper argued that inspite of the mediated process that leads to citations, there are different social norms, institutional differences between the two actors: examiners and applicants in their citation pattern. Subsequently, we have been invited to send this paper to the conference host for plausible publication in journal.
The other paper along with S.C.Sharma was entitled ‘patenting activity in three emerging economies: India, China and Brazil’. This paper investigated the characteristics of these three countries patenting activity and highlighted the policy implications.
The conference provided ample opportunities to interact in formal and informal get-togethers arranged by the host. The beautiful city of Leiden, was also an important factor for the success of this conference.
I maintain there is much more wonder in science than in pseudoscience. And in addition, to whatever measure this term has any meaning, science has the additional virtue, and it is not an inconsiderable one, of being true.
— Carl Sagan (1934 - 1996)
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BOOK REVIEWS Cong Cao China’s Scientific Elite RoutledgeCurzon, London, 2004, 256 p. ISBN-415-32757-1, £60.00. Reviewed by V.P. Kharbanda The scientific community is far from the values of egalitarianism. This is due to the fact that, the successive stages of recognition given to scientists give rise to distinctive social stratification within science. In this process of competition for esteem and authority only a small proportion is able to achieve that goal. The formation of scientific elite is the product of this process which exerts considerable influence on national science policy making, are influential in assigning recognition to the juniors, take decisions and are normally consulted about peer reviews, publications, promotions and prizes. They also have power over the allocation of resources for research. Various institutions and academies confer honors upon outstanding scientists to acknowledge their achievements as well as their value as individuals. While this recognition is supposed to be non-political and should be based on merit alone, this may not be the case in a totalitarian or autocratic regimes, where political criteria has an edge in contrast to democratic regimes. This book examines a similar case-the Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS), Beijing, China. The CAS is at the top of the scientific hierarchy in mainland China and is a type of an academy which combines research with honorific activities like the French Academy of Sciences and the former Soviet Academy of Sciences, in contrast to the Royal Society of London and the National Academy of Sciences (NAS) of the US, which are purely honorific societies. CAS comprises 84 research institutes with 45,000 research staff scattered throughout the country. It’s designed to assume academic leadership in formulation and implementing science policy and in leading scholarly activities at national level. The CAS assumes its goals through its five academic departments (xuebu) viz: Mathematics and physics, chemistry, biological sciences, earth sciences and technological
sciences. Before the S&T reforms, the scientists were honored by being selected as the members of one of these divisions in their respective disciplines as xuebu weiyuan (Academic Division Members). Later this title name was changed to as Academician (yuan shi) and is presently China’s highest designation in science and technology signifying great honor and academic authority. Between 1955-2001 some 970 Chinese scientists become CAS members and as of March 2003, 634 members were alive, representing the scientific elite in China. This book focuses on the functions of the CAS as an honorific institution and the scientific elite which directs changes in the areas of national science and technology policy making. Employing the Mertonian sociology of science in general and the norms of universalism and the theory of social stratification in science in particular, the book examines the basis for scientific elite formation in China. It explores the influence of such factors as social origins, influence of mentors on students, political party association, and personal relations (guanxi) etc. on Chinese scientists becoming the part of this scientific elite. Where possible, comparisons have been made with advanced countries like USA, UK and others.
The book is divided into nine chapters. The introductory chapter summarizes the relationship to the existing literature on sociology science, social stratifications and its application to the scientific community and studies on science in China. The author argues that, because the past research from the mertorian sociology of science has concentrated on the science in the west, an investigation into the scientific elite formation and scientific development under a different social system will shed a new light on the universalism hypothesis. Historically, intellectuals occupied a higher position in the Chinese society before 1949, but their
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status was highly eroded during the communist regime under Mao and were considered as “stinking ninth category.” After the death of Mao, in 1976, the intellectuals have regained their position of high prestige in the society. Presently, Chinese intellectuals seem to be satisfied with the improved social status and respect, but are reluctant to pursue independent thinking and open dissent for the sake of their vested interests. A CAS academician represents the highest scientific designation in China which forms part of the Chinese scientific elite. Presently there are 634 academician of CAS of which 341 (more than half) are from Beijing, showing a high geographical disparity. Of this, 243 are from Institutes affiliated to CAS and 227 from universities among others. Chapter two describes the historical development of scientific enterprise and the interplay between science and its political, economic and social context in China since early twentieth century. The author points out that western modern science was introduced in to China by the Chinese overseas scientists having western doctorates in mathematics physics and other fields of science, and engineering who had returned to China in early twentieth century. The returned Chinese scientists were engaged in teaching as well as research at national universities. In doing so, the Chinese universities became important bases, not only for training scientific personnel but also for research. Apart from this, earlier foreign missionaries who had entered China in early sixteenth century also helped in introduction of western science to China especially mathematics and astronomy through translation activities and in the development of China’s higher education system. Further, scientific societies were the first Chinese institutions involved in the spreading of modern science in China. The most influential was the Science Society of China (zhangquo kexue she) (SSC) established by Chinese students in 1914, at Cornell University. The earliest scientific research institute in modern China was the Geological Survey established in 1916. In 1922, the SSC founded the Nanjing Biological Survey. In 1928, Academia Sinica (guoli zhongyang yanjiuyuan) was founded in Nanjing and in 1929 another comprehensive research institution-the Peiping Academy (guoli peiping yanjiu yuan) was established in Beijing. The establishment of these academies marked the beginning of China’s independent system of scientific research. By 1948 these academies had 13 and 9 research
institutes respectively. In 1949, these were merged together to assume the name of Chinese Academy of Sciences (zhongguo kexueyuan). It is estimated that in 1949 there were 700 national scientists in China. There were 205 universities out of which 30-40 were active in research. Later, after 1949, the Chinese research system, mainly the Chinese Academy of Sciences, gradually developed into a center for advanced research by building research institutions based on Soviet Model. After liberation, while the ‘years for 1949-57 were spent on building up scientific institutions of teaching and research on the Soviet Model, but later, since the Anti-rightist campaign in 1957 to 1976 till the death of Mao, there was severe contradiction between the party and intellectuals. The national science policy shifted from the tight control of intellectual by the CCP to liberal policies for intellectuals. This political interference has been largely seen as the prime factor detrimental to institutionalization and professionalization of science in China. However, since the 1978 National Science Conference, under the leadership of Deng Xiaoping, the party once again gave the highest priority to the development of science and technology, and even has stipulated rejuvenating the country with “science, technology and education” strategy. The party has withdrawn from its over dominant position and granted scientists with greater freedom (although still limited) within their areas of professional competence. The next chapter focuses on how the Academic divisions of the CAS have evolved from an academic leadership organization into an honorific society as reflected in the change of the title of the membership from xuebu weiyuan (Academic division member) to yuanshi (Academician). This reflects the transformation in CCP policy towards science and intellectuals indicating that China has been gradually adopting international norms and values in the practice of science. But the party has been uncertain about how to keep a balance between freedom and autonomy for individual scientists and institutions and its own guidance and control over the scientific community, and is still seen as a difficult problem to solve. In general, in the post Mao era, meritocracy has finally prevailed in education in contrast to the situations during CR. The chapter four examines the interplay of family background and an individual’s educational attainment in fostering members of the CAS. It explores the consistent and universal role
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of education, while at the same time revealing the importance of family background. By looking at the social origins of Chinese scientific elite, it throws light on the social and political background in which the scientists have operated. It is pointed out that the scientific elite have been concentrated in the east in terms of their birth places, as a result of the better levels of economic and educational development etc. there in. Further, elites are grouped geographically is an interesting phenomenon in China. For example, political and military elites under Mao Zedong largely came from central China, especially from Hubei and Hunan; while those under Deng Xiaoping originated mostly from Eastern China, such as Shandong, Hebei and Jiangsu. The level of educational attainment of elites’ parents has also been a more important factor than the socio economic background of the family as measured by father’s occupation. Most of these scientific elite had their under graduate education in China’s key universities, and if possible, went abroad for higher studies. The next chapter examines the role of mentors on young scientists in the coming of age of China’s scientific elite. Because of the Chinese tradition of respecting the aged and experienced, students sincerely follow the guidance of their mentors. But what Chinese mentors transmit to their students is not only the norms of international elite science, but also value such as patriotisms as required by the CCP, thus complicating the socialization process. In addition, given the penetration of personal relations (guanxi), mentors are influential with recruitment of their students into the elite group. It also shows how the mentor-student relationship based primarily on Chinese tradition-the respect of students for teachers and teachers have the final say-has prevented students from pursuing independent and original scholarship, and this may be the reason, why scientists working in mainland China have never achieved a higher status in the international scientific community as measured by winning a Noble Prize. Chapter six looks into the achievements of elite Chinese scientists to see how their performance has been linked to their status achieved. It is pointed out that China’s elite scientists have been more likely to be elected from the field of basic science and civilian research, in contrast to applied and military research. It seems to be that those scientists affiliated with prestigious institutions are more likely to join the elite group. With the recent introduction of
international norms of science and education, a neutral selection between graduates from higher education institutions and prospective employers has been gradually in place. Conditions of the political motivation that intellectuals are required to be both “red and expert” (youhong youzhuan) is slowly disappearing. Chapter 7 dealing with this aspect, describes the evolution of the concept of redness and expertness and how the concept has influenced the formation of the scientific elite in China. It also discuss the appointments of CAS members in the NPC and CPPCC and their being recruited into CCP. The author point out that although CCP places great emphasis on political loyalty, it has adopted a liberal policy towards elite scientists giving more weight to their academic achievements. As a result, scientific elite has been accorded with a range of political honors such as NPC deputyship, CPPCC membership and their being recruited in CCP. As long as the scientific community does not challenge the leadership, the party would even allow science to operate according to international scientific norms and values. According to the author, the shift from red and expert criterion to the sole emphasis on expertise, points to the end of political evaluation of Chinese scientists. The next chapter deals with the factors that have been affecting recent CAS membership elections which have been held every two years since 1991. It argues that CAS members have resisted the pressure and interference of the party to maintain the integrity of the elite group. Over the years, CAS members have taken academic criteria-achievements - as measured by the quantity and quality of their research and contributions - into serious consideration in assessing the credentials of candidates. The political criteria and guanxi (connection) in most cases have taken a back seat. However, the system of selection has its own drawbacks, as members tend to vote for their close colleagues. As a result, while those elected are unquestionably good, but may not be necessarily the most outstanding in terms of scientific originality. The final chapter summarizes the process of formation of scientific elite in China and examines the societal role this group of scientists have played in areas related to their expertise and as intellectuals. The author concludes that the members of the CAS as at present are being selected through an institution that is open, fair, and impartial and that the current CAS members represent the highest level of
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scientific research in China. However, it is observed that CAS members have under performed when compared to some of the Chinese who have gone abroad for advanced studies. In some extreme cases, CAS members are not even comparable to some of the Chinese post doctoral fellows abroad. One of the remedies, advocated, is to boost the performance of the members and to raise standards by admitting scientists of Chinese nationality working abroad. CAS started to do so in 2001. The author reveals that basic research activities during CR in China did not stop totally but were continued by some scientists although they were persecuted during the period. The author concludes that, basically, the Chinese culture has
been resistant to vigorous institutional change and modernization. Its five characteristics like cognitive formalism, narrow empiricism, dogmatic scientism, feudal bureacratism and compulsive ritualism, have been the prime factors with which Chinese science has lagged far behind the developed countries. This needs change. Overall the book gives an excellent exposition of the formation and role of scientific elite in the national science policy making in mainland China and should serve as an essential reference book for detailed information on the subject for the scholars engaged in the studies on science and technology in China from a political angle.
Rajesh Kochhar on world body
TRIBUNE NEWS SERVICE
New Delhi September 14 Professor Rajesh Kochhar, Director, NISTADS (National Institute of Science Technology and Development Studies), New Delhi has been elected a member of the Executive Committee of WAITRO (World Association of Industrial and Technological Research Organisation), at its recently concluded Biennial Congress in Nairobi, Kenya.
WAITRO is an independent non-profit global network of research and technological organizations. Set up more than 30 years ago under UN auspices, it is currently headquartered in Malaysia and has a membership of about 200 labs from about 30 countries. Professor Kochhar will represent the Asia-Pacific region in the Executive Committee during his two-year term. (Source: The Tribune, 15 Sep. 2004)
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For the record
Diensh Abrol. Invited as an Expert by Indian Council of Medical Research to participate in the Expert Group Meeting related to General Agreement on Trade in Services (GATS) in Public Health Services on 20 April 2004. Invited as faculty member for Indian Foreign Service (IFS) Probationers Training Programme, organized by Research Information System for Non-Aligned Countries, New Delhi, 23 August 2004.
Dr. Parthasarathi Banerjee. Elected as International Editor of the Journal of Technology Innovation. Elected as Member, International Advisory Board, Electronic Journal of Intercultural Research.
Dr. Sujit Bhattacharya. Member of the local project advisory committee of joint DST/NRDC sponsored project on building up a database of technologies developed by CSIR. Member of the local project advisory committee of Department of Science and Technology (DST) sponsored project on “Pilot study on the magnitude, career profile and professional achievements of the PhDs in science faculty (SF) from the selected central universities/Institutions in India”. Invited to act as member of the program committee for the 9th International conference on Scientometrics and informetrics (ISSI) to be held in Sweden, 20-25 July, 2005.
V.K. Gupta continued as a member of the Committee on Technopreneur Promotion Programme (TePP) of the Department of Scientific and Industrial Research, Government of India.
Dr. Subhan Khan chaired a technical session and also acted as panelist in One day workshop on Integrated water resources management— A vision for Delhi-2010, at Guru Gobind Singh Indraprastha University, Delhi, 1 April 2004
Prof. Rajesh Kochhar has been elected a member of the Executive Committee of WAITRO: World Association of Industrial and Technological Research Organization, at its recently concluded Biennial Congress in Nairobi, Kenya. WAITRO is an independent non-profit global network of research and technological organizations. Set up more than 30 years ago under UN auspices, it is currently headquartered in Malaysia and has a membership of about 200 labs from about 30 countries. Prof. Kochhar will represent the Asia-Pacific region in the Executive Committee during his two-year term.
Other information
Sujit Bhattacharya has given his Expert comments in the Cover Story: Only connect?, Down to Earth, 15 February 2004, p.37.
Anyone who conducts an argument by appealing to Authority is not using his intelligence, he is just using his memory.
— Leonardo da Vinci (1452-1519)
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PUBLICATIONS
April 2004 – October 2004 (Asterisk denotes authors from outside the Institute. Papers left out from earlier list have been included) Books 1. Banerjee, Parthasarathi (2004) The Indian Software
Industry: Business Strategy and Dynamic Coordination. London: Palgrave-Macmillan.
Research papers 1. Abrol, Dinesh (2004) Lessons from the design of
innovation systems for rural industrial clusters in India. Special issue of Asialics Journal of Technology Innovation, 12: 67-98.
2. Abrol, Dinesh (2004) The post-TRIPs technological behaviour of pharmaceutical industry in India. Journal of Science, Technology & Society, 12: 273-294.
3. Abrol, Dinesh (2004) Science and technology: Current imperatives. Social Scientist, Issue(374-375): 77-84.
4. Abrol, Dinesh (2004) Protection of innovation after the agreement on trade related intellectual property rights: A search for alternatives. Social Science Probing, 12: 135-153
5. Banerjee, Parthasarathi (2004) Strategies of subversion: Management of demand for software through destabilizing organizational structure of your customer. Metamorphosis, 2: 79-91.
6. Banerjee, Parthasarathi (2004) Response to comments by Saha, Singh, Glor and Bandyopadhyay. Metamorphosis, 3: 56-58.
7. Banerjee, Parthasarathi (2004) Aesthetics of navigational performance in hypertext. AI & Society, Online.
8. Bhattacharya, Sujit (2004), Mapping inventive activity and technological change through patent analysis: A case study of India and China. Scientometrics, 61: 361-381.
9. Dhawan*, S.M.; Gupta, B.M. (2004) Comparative evaluation of Indian physics research: Impact factor vs citations frequency. Current Science, 86:
10. Gupta, B.M.; Singh*, Mohinder (2004) India’s collaboration with Latin America as reflected in co-authored papers. DESIDOC Bulletin of Information Technology, 24: 9-21.
11. Gupta, B.M.; Jha*, A.K.; Mishra*, P.K. (2004) Citation indexes and other products of ISI. Annals of Library and Information Studies, 51: 1-10.
12. Gupta, V.K. (2004) Inventors’ productivity in a publicly funded R&D agency – A case of CSIR in India. World Patent Information, 26: 235-238.
13. Kharbanda, V.P.; Gupta, V.K. (2004) Knowledge and innovation – Consultancy potential of CSIR. Consultancy Vision, 9: 4-10.
14. Lal, K.; Rai, L.P. (2004) Impact of mobile telephony in a wireless information society. Journal of Scientific and Industrial Research, 63: 499-508.
15. Meyer*, Martin; Bhattacharya, Sujit, (2004) Commonalities and differences between scholarly and technological collaboration. Scientometrics, 61: 443-456.
16. Rai, L.P.; Kumar, Naresh (2004) S&T education in India: Prospects and challenges. Scientometrics, 61: 157-169.
17. Rai, L.P.; Kumar, Naresh; Goel*, C.K. (2004) Forecasting internet demand using mathematical models. Journal of Discrete Mathematical Science and Cryptography, 7: 37-48.
18. Rai, L.P.; Kumar, Naresh (2004) S&T personnel database in India. Current Science, 86:
19. Rao*, M.K.D.; Gupta, B.M. (2004) Indo-German collaboration in S&T: An analysis through co-authored publications, 1996-2000. Annals of Library and Information Studies, 51: 64-71.
20. Roy, Santanu; Jain, A.; Mohapatra*, P.K.J. (2001) Forecasting and simulation of scientific manpower under various policy regimes: Case study of an R&D laboratory in India. Manpower Journal, XXXVII: 23-45.
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21. Roy, Santanu; Mohapatra*, P.K.J. (2002) Towards an integration of system dynamics and structural equation modelling: Developing empirical causal models. International Journal of System Dynamics and Policy Planning, XIV: 39-60.
22. Suman, Yogesh; Rajpal*, Navin (2004) Mobile location tracking techniques: Analysis and evaluation. IETE Technical Review, 21: 351-356.
Chapters in books 1. Abrol, Dinesh (2004) Science and technology. In
India: An Economic Agenda, (New Delhi: Social Scientist-SAHMAT) pp. 60-67.
2. Banerjee, Parthasarathi (2004) Re-intermediation and deferment through e-commerce: Neo-Austrian interpretation of capital and time. In Digital Economy: Impacts, Influences and Challenges (eds. H. Kehal & V.P. Singh) (Hershey & London: Idea Group Pub.) pp.21-38.
3. Banerjee, Parthasarathi (2004) Knowing university science and social relations: Creating ruptures at the margin. In Transformative Links between Higher and Basic Education: Mapping the Field (ed. K. Chanana) (New Delhi: Sage) pp.108-136.
4. Kochhar, Rajesh (2004) Till science transcends the scientist: Role of human factor in science. In History of Science, Philosophy and Culture in Indian Civilization, Vol XI Part 1 (ed. D.P. Chattopadhyaya). (New Delhi: Centre for Studies in Civilization), pp.249-251.
5. Kochhar, R.K. (2004) Small telescopes in research and education. In Developing Basic Space Science Wrold-Wide (eds. Willem Wamsteker, Rudolf Albrecht, Hans J. Haubold) (London: Kluwer Academic Publishers) pp.299-305.
6. Menon, Usha (2004) Transformative links and the training strategies in mass educational movements: Some conceptual issues. In Transformative Links of Higher Education with Basic Education: Mapping the Field (ed. Karuna Chanana) (New Delhi: Sage), pp.
7. Padhi*, P., Garg, K.C. (2004) From librametry to informetrics and an overview of Indian contributions. In Library and Information Studies in Cyber Age: Essays in Honour of Professor J.L. Sardana (ed. S.M. Dhawan) (New Delhi: author Press) pp.513-523.
8. Singh, R.S. (2004) Conservation of cultural property in India: A cumulated index Volume I, 1966-XXXI, 1998. In Studies in Art and Archaeological Conservation (Dr. B.B. Lal Commemoration volume), pp.243-290.
Conference proceedings 1. Abrol Dinesh (2004) Knowledge diffusion under the
emerging post TRIPs Indian pharmaceutical scenario. In the proceeding of DRUID summer conference 2004 on Industrial dynamics, innovation and development, held at Ellsinore, Denmark, 14-16 June, (http://www.druid.dk/ocs/papers.php?cf=1)
2. Bhattacharya, Sujit; Garg, K.C.; Dutt, Bharvi; Sharma, S.C. (2004) What do patent citations reveal?: Investigating the pattern of examiner and applicant citations. In Book of abstracts of Eight international conference on Science and technology indicators, held at Leiden, 23-25 September, (Leiden: The Netherlands). 39-40.
3. Bhattacharya, Sujit; Sharma, S.C. (2004) Patenting activity in three emerging economies: India, China and Brazil. In Book of abstracts of Eight international conference on Science and technology indicators, held at Leiden, 23-25 September, (Leiden: The Netherlands). 41-42.
4. Kumar, Vipan; Kautia*, Shweta (2004) Nistads Dhokra Museum: A virtual reality approach. In Diamond jubilee seminar on Virtual reality in Pursuit of excellence, conducted by IICT, Hyderabad, 4-5 June. (in CD).
5. Roy, Santanu; Dhawan, S.K. (2004) Probing the value space: An empirical study of personal value system of Indian scientists. In proceedings of 13th International conference on Management of technology (IAMOT 2004), held at Washington, DC, USA, 3-7 April, ISBN: 0-9712964-6-4, (eds. Hosni, Y., Smith, R. and Khalil, T.) (The International Association for Management of Technology, University of Miami, FL, USA). (in CD).
6. Roy, Santanu; Dhawan, S.K. (2004) Probing organizational systems: Macro and micro level analysis in an R&D organization. In proceedings of the International conference on Systems thinking in management: Transforming organizations to achieve sustainable success (ICSTM ’04), held at University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, USA, 19-21 May,
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(eds. Pourdehnad, J. et.al.) (The Ackoff Center for the Advancement of Systems Approaches, ACASA and The Association for Enterprise Integration, AFEI). (in CD).
7. Roy, Santanu; Dhawan, S.K.; Nagpaul*, P.S. (2004) Dissecting the complexity of R&D performance measurement: Analyzing subjective and quantitative approaches. In proceedings of the Fourth international symposium on Management of technology and innovation: Managing total innovation in the 21st century (ISMOT’04), held at Zhejiang University, Hangzhou, P.R. China, 24-26 October, ISBN: 7-900674-24-1/G.133, (eds. Xu, Q., Wu, X. and Chen, J.), (Hangzhou: Zhejiang University Press). 92-96.
8. Vimala, N.R. (2004) Sustainable development and best practices-concept to action. In proceedings of the
Conference on Business strategy and environment, held at University of Leeds, UK, 13-14 September.
Book reviews 1. Kharbanda, V.P. (2004) Reviewed the Developing
China’s Natural Gas Market – The Energy Policy Challenges, by International Energy Agency. Paris: Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development, 2002, 368p. Nistads News, 6(1): 75-76.
Miscellaneous 1. Kharbanda, V.P. (2004) China harvests young brain.
Nistads News, 6(1): 51-52. 2. Singh, R.S. (2004) Bejor kala ka namuna hain hamari
Abstracts of papers published Gupta, B.M.; Jha*, A.K.; Mishra*, P.K. (2004) Citation indexes and other products of ISI. Annals of Library and Information Studies, 51: 1-10. Elaborates the philosophy behind citation indexing and lists the advantages of citation indexes over conventional subject indexes. Introduces the various citation indexes, the Web of Science and other related products developed by Institute for Scientific Information (ISI), Philadelphia, USA. Indicates the scope, coverage, different features, and advantages of these products. Besides citation indexes other products discussed are Specialty Citation Indexes, Journal Citation Reports and Essential Science Indicators. Gupta, B.M.; Singh*, Mohinder (2004) India’s collaboration with Latin America as reflected in co-authored papers. DESIDOC Bulletin of Information Technology, 24: 9-21. India's relations with the Latin American countries have been traditionally friendly and interaction with them is close both at bilateral and multilateral level. India's collaboration with Latin American countries has resulted in different kinds of outputs, including joint publications, technology development, technology transfer, improvised products and processes. The joint research output emanating out of research collaboration is an important source of information for mapping India's collaboration with Latin America, and its impact on different fields. This paper attempts to study the research collaboration of India with Latin America, with the following objectives: (i) To study the nature of Indian collaboration with Latin American countries in S&T, as reflected in co-authored research papers, (ii) To identify the specific subject areas of Indian collaboration with Latin America, (iii) To study the impact of Indian collaborative research with Latin America in different fields, and (iv) To identify the major Indian institutions involved in this collaborative research with institutions in Latin America. Gupta, V.K. (2004) Inventors’ productivity in a publicly funded R&D agency – A case of CSIR in India. World Patent Information, 26: 235-238.
Intellectual property rights have become a significant component of R&D policy in India. The inventor’s productivity is a major concern of the publicly funded R&D organizations like the Council of Scientific and Industrial Research (CSIR). The paper examines the patenting activity of inventors from CSIR in India and the US during 1976 to 2000. It observes that there is no uniform trend in patent output of inventors. The patent productivity is highly concentrated in relatively small number of talented individuals. The first inventors have a role as scientific mentors. It defines the ‘pioneer first inventors’ as those who contribute more as first inventor and less as co-inventor. The ‘patronising first inventors’ are those who contribute less as first inventor but more as co-inventor. Though the former produce more patents in comparison to the later yet the per inventor output of ‘patronising first inventors’ is twice that of ‘pioneer first inventors’. The paper suggests that the role of leading inventors should be distinguished as pioneering first inventors and patronizing first inventors and their contributions rewarded accordingly. Kharbanda, V.P.; Gupta, V.K. (2004) Knowledge and innovation – Consultancy potential of CSIR. Consultancy Vision, 9: 4-10. Liberalization and globalization is compelling R&D institutions particularly in the developing countries to focus more and more on knowledge and innovation to be competitive in the global markets. In this process of commercialization of knowledge, consultancy has come to play a major role as a bridge between knowledge generating institutions and the industry. In this, CSIR has been playing a major role, since inception, through its innovative activities to tackle problems of industry as well as transfer of newer technologies. The present scenario has put larger demands on the CSIR system. It is concluded that the marketing of knowledge-base of CSIR laboratories is becoming competitive day by day. Over the years the CSIR laboratories have developed a vast knowledge base and huge potential in its different areas of research and innovative activities. For example, a number of laboratories like NCL, NAL, CFTRI, IGIB, CCMB, CLRI, CDRI, etc. are in the forefront of research
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and consultancy activities. However, in the present competitive scenario this needs further impetus. After a short introduction, the paper examines the need and role of consultants followed by the consultancy status and its potential in India. Finally, a case study of CSIR has been presented. Lal, K.; Rai, L.P. (2004) Impact of mobile telephony in a wireless information society. Journal of Scientific and Industrial Research, 63: 499-508. The mankind today stands on the threshold of a unique and great era, i.e., Wireless Information Society (WIS) where space and time are virtually shrinking. Competition between mobile and fixed telephony for the market share of the subscriber base as well as revenue earned is discussed. Global trends pertaining to the growth of the WIS are analyzed and presented with the help of mathematical models. Future projections have been made for the subscriber base as well as revenue earned from mobiles and fixed telephones. Mobile telephones, equipped with latest communication technology, are likely to be in an advantageous position vis-à-vis fixed telephones. With the technological advances in the field, mobile internet services will further enhance the adoption of mobile telephone services in the society. It is visualized that there would be more economies with mobiles than fixed lines and it will become the trendsetter for the future generations. Rai, L.P.; Kumar, Naresh (2004) S&T education in India: Prospects and challenges. Scientometrics, 61: 157-169. With the globalisation of the job market, higher education is undergoing structural changes and education scenario worldwide is experiencing dramatic and accelerating changes in patterns of creation of new knowledge. Similar activities are being witnessed in India as regards to the production of highly qualified S&T personnel in different disciplines. In this paper a comparative analysis of doctorates produced in India during 1974 to 1999 in different fields is carried out with the help of mathematical models. Besides analysing the trends of highly qualified S&T personnel with the help of known mathematical models, a few new substitution models have been proposed and applied to explain the movement of researchers from one discipline to the other. Findings suggest that arts, commerce, education and medicine
depict growing trends, whereas agriculture, science and veterinary science are traversing a declining path. Further, proposed models are found to be flexible in nature and can capture and explain the shifting patters very well. These models are comparable to other known models dealing with technology substitution. Rai, L.P.; Kumar, Naresh; Goel*, C.K. (2004) Forecasting internet demand using mathematical models. Journal of Discrete Mathematical Science and Cryptography, 7: 37-48. Innovation diffusion has been of prime interest to both the entrepreneur as well as the industrialist. In spite of the availability of a vast literature on the subject several issues and possibilities, both existing and emerging in this area, are still untouched and it will be desirable to examine some of them, which may contribute in theoretical and empirical studies. With these objectives an attempt has been made here to analyse the issues related to market forecasts, diffusion indicators, behavioural characteristics of the adopters, supply constraints in developing countries and so on. Global diffusion of Internet, which has revolutionised the society, has been analysed here in detail as a case study. During the last twenty-five years it has penetrated into the developed world and now under developed countries have also joined the Internet bandwagon. Impact of Internet on the society is going to be tremendous is evident from the unprecedented growth rate being witnessed in the history of innovation diffusion. In this paper global diffusion of Internet has been presented and its future demand and penetration rate have been estimated with the help of mathematical models for innovation diffusion. Further, an attempt has been made to compare the suitability of various models for making demand projections. Rao*, M.K.D.; Gupta, B.M. (2004) Indo-German collaboration in S&T: An analysis through co-authored publications, 1996-2000. Annals of Library and Information Studies, 51: 64-71. The paper looks into the Indo-German collaboration in S&T through the co-authored publications during the period 1996-2000. The collaboration is under two broad streams, bilateral and multilateral. The study provides an analysis of co-authored papers by main fields and sub-fields and the impact of such collaboration in different fields of S&T. The paper identifies the major institutions
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involved in collaborative research in the two countries. The study reveals the extent of commonality of subject interest between the two countries. The analysis showed that the bilateral papers were maximum in physics followed by chemistry, biomedical research, etc. However the impact factor of bilateral papers was highest in biomedical research followed by physics, chemistry, etc. As many as 88 per cent of all bilateral papers have been reported in journals having impact factor less than 1.38, the average impact factor of all bilateral papers. Similar result of analysis is shown for the multilateral papers. Suman, Yogesh; Rajpal*, Navin (2004) Mobile location tracking techniques: Analysis and evaluation. IETE Technical Review, 21: 351-356. Information about the location of a mobile station (MS) can be very useful in providing critical services required during rescuing operations. It can be useful in providing navigational services. Additionally it can help in tackling issues like co-channel interference and limitations of frequency spectrum. This paper analyses and evaluates
mobile location tracking techniques in terms of accuracy, cost and processing load.
Vimala, N.R. (2004) Sustainable development and best practices-concept to action. In proceedings of the Conference on Business strategy and environment, held at University of Leeds, UK, 13-14 September. There are number of definitions of sustainable Development (WCED, 1987, OECD, 1989, IBRD, 1989, Pears D Barbier WB and Markandaya A, 1990). Social, economic, environmental and institutional indicators measure their performance. The importance of their governance (UNDP, 1997, WHAT, 2001) in terms of exercise of political, economic and administrative authority and best practices (Planning Commission, HRDC, UNDP, 2002, UNDSD 2002, UNDSD 2003) is emphasized in the literature. An attempt has been made to present few best practices in solid waste and water management for Sustainable Development implemented in the State of Delhi, Kolkatta, Tamil Nadu and Karnataka in India, focus the key issues in their implementation and project their policy implications.
There are in fact two things, science and opinion; the former begets knowledge, the latter ignorance.
— Hippocrates (460 BC - 377 BC)
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Text and photo: Vipan Kumar
Rufous Treepie (Dendrocitta Vagabunda), a bird, commonly known as Bob-o-link for its unusual call. A member of the crow family, inherits a lot of habits from them. Very bold, can attack a much bigger animal when confronted, (thats why the hindi name Maha-laat). It can eat almost anything.
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Children of Nistads staff participated in various events on the occasion ofCSIR Foundation Day celebration on 26 September 2004
or private circulation only. Material in this Newsletter, except for the one eparately copyrighted, can freely be reproduced, by suitably acknowledging it.
Nistads News, Vol.4, No.2, October 2002
ted by National Institute of Science Communiction and Information Resources (NISCAIR) COUNCIL OF SCIENTIFIC AND INDUTSRIAL RESEARCH (CSIR) Pusa Gate, K.S. Krishnan Marg, New Delhi 110 012
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ELLOWED PAGES REPRINTS OF HISTORICAL DOCUMENTS
eport of the Indian Famine Commission presented to both Houses of Parliament [UK], 1881 APPENDIX I
I – PHYSICAL CAUSES OF INDIAN FAMINES Being a Lecture delivered before the Royal Institution of Great Britain on the 18th May 1877 (slightly corrected), by
Lieutenant-General R. Strachey R.E., F.R.S.
ife, whatever shape it takes, is passed in a continued truggle between the forces that tend to preserve and to estroy it. Among the most active of these forces are the onditions of local climate, and notably those of tmospheric heat and moisture. Speaking broadly, the ame conditions stimulate at once the conservative and estructive tendencies by adding to their intensity; so that here the productive powers of nature are the greatest,
here also the opposite influences are commonly the most ctive. Thus, in the warmer parts of the earth, where the ifts of nature are more profuse, we have to encounter in heir extreme form the devastating forces of tempest, rought, flood, and disease; a few weeks, or may be ours, sweep away the results which it has taken years of he labour of man, or the more silent industry of nature to ccumulate. The evidence of the truth of this is unhappily oo close at hand. You will find it in the drought which is ot laying the iron hand of famine on a large part of outhern and western India; in the similar calamity that ell on parts of Bengal three years ago; in the sudden isaster which within the last few months destroyed erhaps 100,000 human beings in two or three hours in he delta of the Ganges by a flood caused by a cyclone; in he ravages of cholera, which sweeps away the survivors f famine or flood; and in the long series of past ccurrences of a similar character recorded in the history f India.
The conclusion is painfully forced upon us that ractical civilization has gone a very little way when we ind that hardly more than a first step has yet been taken n the successful application of our knowledge and aterial resources to warding off calamities such as these.
t is not, however, my intention to dwell on this aspect of he subject, serious though it be. My present task is a uch more limited one, that is placing before you, to the
est of my ability, an explanation of the physical onditions under which one class of these scourges of ndia arises, namely, seasons of drought.
Before I enter on the more special matters with which I shall have to deal, I think it desirable to draw attention to certain points bearing on the general subject of Indian droughts and famines, and their consequences, on which it seems to me that erroneous impressions are prevalent.
In the first place, great though the calamity of an Indian famine be, both to the population directly affected by it, and to the general community that has to bear the loss it causes, yet its gravity may easily be exaggerated. There has been not a little declamation to the effect that the frequent recurrence of Indian famines renders the permanent improvement and well being of the country almost hopeless. Let us compare India in this respect with our own country, the prosperity of which cannot be questioned. The two last and severest Indian famines of recent years, that of Bengal, and that under which a large tract now suffers, may be reckoned to have cost the State in all sixteen millions sterling. Of this sum, perhaps, two or three millions may represent loss of revenue, and the remainder the cost of relief. Now the ordinary yearly cost of Poor Law relief in England is about seven millions sterling, while a few years ago it was eight millions. Again, at the present time in India the population in receipt of relief in the British districts is estimated at about one and a quarter millions in all. The number of persons who receive relief in England at the present time may be reckoned at 700,000 for every day of the year, permanently, and a few years ago it was as much as one million.
Further, it is stated on good authority, that of the thirty-three millions of inhabitants of the United Kingdom, eighteen millions are fed by the produce of our islands, and fifteen millions by imported food. It is not possible to form any opinion as to the proportion of food produced locally and that imported for an Indian province suffering from famine; but of the country, as a whole, it may be said with certainty that the food supply easily provides for the entire population under all known
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circumstances, and that in the late severe Bengal famine the export of grain continued without very great diminution in spite of the local failure of crops.
Much misconception also exists as to the density of the population of India. It is no doubt true that in some districts the population is very great, but this is by no means universal. In the provinces now suffering, the population in the worst districts is only 150 to the square mile, and the highest average does not come up to 250 to the square mile; the average of the British Isles being about 260 per square mile. In the Bengal famine the density of population was much greater, being in some districts even 600 or 700 to the square mile. There is no positive evidence that the population of any part of India has rapidly increased of late years. On this subject we have very few facts on which to rely, and the opinions frequently expressed on it are necessarily based on surmise, and are, in my own judgment, more likely to be wrong than right. The first and only census in the province of Bengal was not taken till 1872, and it will show the utter want of value of guesses on such subjects when I mention that the actual enumeration showed that the population was sixty-seven millions, where previous estimates had made it forty-two millions.
I shall now proceed to the main subject of my address.
Let me ask your attention to the map of India before you. On the north, you see the mountainous region of Tibet, the southern border of which is formed by the ranges known as the Himalaya, extending over a length of about 2,000 miles, and rising along the whole line into the region of perpetual snow; few of the passes being at a less altitude than 15,000 or 16,000 feet, peaks of 20,000 feet being abundant and the highest summit yet measured reaching 29,000 feet above the sea level. On the west, this elevated region is connected with the table-land of Afghanistan and Baluchistan, the border of which forms the frontier of India along the Indus. On the east, high mountains spread out from Tibet southward, constituting the western parts of China, and extending to the sea in Burmah, the Malay peninsula, and Cochin-China; the eastern frontier of British India lies along the outer ramifications of these ranges from Assam, by the delta of the Ganges and Brahmaputra, to the districts of Arracan and Burmah.
The northern provinces of British India occupy a great plain which flanks the Himalaya along its entire length, expanding at both extremities to the sea; on the east over the delta of the Ganges, which is roughly
coincident with the province of Bengal, and on the west through the Punjab and Sindh, along the course of the Indus and its great tributaries to the Arabian sea. This plain rises at its highest point between the Sutlej and the Jumna to something less than 1,000 feet above the sea, presenting over its whole extent an almost unbroken surface, which has the appearance of perfect horizontality.
What is commonly spoken of as the Indian peninsula is occupied by a table-land, roughly triangular in shape, having its broadest end immersed, so to speak, in the continent, to the extent of about one-third of the distance from its base to its apex, the immersed portion being surrounded by the great northern plain. The southern half of the western flank of this table-land forms the line of mountains called the Western Ghats, and the northern half the hills that bound Rajputana
page 2 on the west, ending at Delhi. The highest points on the Western Ghats proper hardly exceed 4.000 feet in elevation, though the Nilgheri mountain, near the southern end of the peninsula, rise to 8,000 feet.
The eastern margin of the table-land is less sharply defined than the western, and is less in elevation also, having a varying extent of low-lying land between it and the sea. The northern border is still less strongly developed; it gradually declines in the north-west, where it can hardly be distinguished, the table-land merging into the plain. The average altitude of the plateau is probably about 1,500 feet above the sea, being most in the south, where it rises in some places to 3,000 feet, and generally greater on the west than on the cast, so that with two remarkable exceptions all the more important rivers that carry off the drainage, flow off to the eastward.
These exceptions are due to the occurrence of a line of geological disturbance or discontinuity, which crosses the table-land from south-west to north-east, being marked by the valleys of the Nerbudda river on the west, the first of the exceptional rivers just referred to, and of the Sone on the east, and the lines of elevation that flank them, known as the Vindhya, Satpura, and Kaimor ranges. The Taptee, the second of the exceptional rivers flowing westward, occupies a valley, nearly parallel to, and not far removed from that of the Nerbudda, and no doubt having its origin in the same physical causes.
The table-land of the peninsula, strictly speaking, should be held to terminate at the Nilgiri mountains, immediately south of which a complete interrupotion of the Western Ghats takes place. The mountains which
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extend from this point to the apex of the peninsula at Cape Comorin rise to a considerable elevation at some places, but have no longer any of the characters of a table-land.
The part of India which is at the present time suffering from the effects of drought includes nearly all that which lies on the summit of the table-land, from a line 100 miles south of the Taptee river to the Nilgiris, along a band 200 miles wide, measuring from the Western Ghats eastward, as well as the low-lying districts of the east coast between the sea and the foot of the eastern slope of table-land south of the Kistna river. The British are affected is about 150,000 square miles, with a population of more than thirty millions. You may compare with this the area and population of Spain, which has 200,000 square miles and seventeen millions of inhabitants; and Italy, with 100,000 square miles, and twenty-four millions of inhabitants; you can thus judge of the vast magnitude of the task before the Government in dealing with a scarcity spread over such an extent of country.
These same regions are always liable to suffer from deficient rainfall, and the low-lying coast districts not now affected, north of the Kistna, have also on former occasions suffered in an extreme degree. The Bengal drought of 1873 extended over the part of the great northern plain immediately contiguous to the Gangetic delta, and the western border of the delta. It was very exceptional, so far as concerns the portion of the area affected that lay north of the Ganges and in the delta. The portions of the great plain lying south of the Ganges along the northern border of the table-land, from the junction of the Sone with the Ganges as far as the Sutlej, have at intervals suffered from severe drought, proximity to the Himalaya being, as a rule, associated with more favourable rainfall.
The part of the table-land north of the Nerbudda, embracing Rajputana, has suffered very severely within recent times.
The first point to consider in relation to the matter before us will naturally be the ordinary distribution of the rain. This is shown on the map, on which have been drawn lines indicating approximately the average amount of rain over the whole country.
With some exceptions, to which special attention will be necessary, the chief fall of rain in India takes place during the period of the south-west monsoon, that is, from May to October, the remainder of the year being comparatively dry. These summer rains prevail over the
whole of the coasts of southern Asia which are under the influence of the south-west winds, namely, from Arabia to China; and they are felt in a more or less marked manner to great distances inland, being abundant over India generally, and along the whole of the southern slope of the Himalaya from the Brahmaputra to the Indus.
The rain at this season is very heavy along the coast of the Malay peninsula, through Burmah to Assam and the Himalaya beyond. On the north its progress is in a great degree arrested by the snowy mountains, so that it only just reaches in the slightest manner the southern borders of Tibet. In the north-west quarter these rains gradually cease in eastern Afghanistan, the city of Kabul being beyond their influence, and generally they do not extend in an important degree beyond the outer ranges of hills that flank the lower course of the Indus.
On the west, or Malabar coast of the peninsula, the summer rainfall is extremely high. On the east, or Coromandel coast, the quantity at this season is, however, comparatively small, the principal fall there taking place in October and November, after the south-west monsoon has ceased. To this apparent anomaly I shall again revert.
Besides the principal season of summer rain, there is clearly developed in the north of India a distinct season of winter rain, which has its maximum nearly corresponding with the period of greatest cold, in January and February. This rain becomes less important as we move southward, being hardly noticeable in Bombay or Calcutta, or farther south; while in Afghanistan, where it is prolonged into the spring, it is the heaviest and most valuable of the whole year.
I need perhaps, hardly remark that the source from which the summer rains of India are supplied is the continued stream of air highly charged with vapour which is poured over the land from the Indian Ocean by the winds that blow during the season, known as the south-west monsoon. To apprehend correctly how these winds thus operate some explanation of their cause and mode of occurrence will be requisite.
It is a common but erroneous mode of stating the efficient cause of wind to refer it to difference of temperature of two contiguous areas; namely, that cold air being more dense and heavier, necessarily displaces hot air, which is lighter, the accompanying motion being wind. Indirectly, no doubt, the difference of temperature often operates in this manner; but the true cause of all movements of the atmosphere which we describe as wind is wholly mechanical, being difference of pressure at
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neighbouring places, and the facts cannot be properly dealt with if this is lost sight of.
The upper strata of the atmosphere press, under the action of gravity, on those at the earth’s surface, and the effect is indicated by help of the barometer, which measures the pressure of the air at any moment in inches of mercury; 30 inches of mercury over any surface being nearly equal in weight, or producing equal pressure, to that caused by the whole atmosphere over the same surface. The pressure of course diminishes as we ascend, there being less and less air above us, and the barometer falls. Moreover, when the atmosphere is at rest, an equal superincumbent mass, accompanied by equal pressure, will be found at all places equally distant from the earth’s surface; or, in other words, the planes of equal pressure will be truly horizontal. If, at any time, this is not the case, a result follows like that which takes place in a body of water, the surface of which is not horizontal; namely, the air flows from the higher towards the lower points, which movement continues till the planes of equal pressure are restored to horizontality.
Changes of temperature over any area by causing the expansion or contraction of superincumbent body of air disturb the levels of the planes of equal pressure in the upper strata of the atmosphere, heat causing them to rise and to separate from one another, and cold bringing them down and closer together; by reason of which the air flows off on all sides above, from a relatively heated area, and flows in on all sides above, to a relatively cooled one. The immediate consequence of such movements in the upper strata will be to reduce the pressure of the surface over the hot area from which air has been thrown off, and to increase it over the cold one towards which air has flowed in, and this will be accompanied by a wind at the surface, blowing from the cold area to the hot one. The movements in the upper and lower parts of the atmosphere are thus the converse one of the other, and tend to restore the equilibrium or horizontality of the planes of pressure disturbed by changes of temperature. But though this is the general law which regulates such movements, the actual conditions under which the atmosphere is placed, and more particularly the influence of the rotation of the earth, which is imparted by friction to the superincumbent air, and the imperfect fluidity of the air which admits of local accumulations of energy under the action of sudden or irregular changes of temperature, are constantly causing disturbances of what might otherwise have been comparatively simple movements, so
page 3 that the resulting directions of the wind as observed are not much more readily connected with the differences of pressures than with the differences of temperatures which lead to them. In our own latitudes, for instance, the direction of the wind is commonly more nearly parallel to the lines of equal pressure at the surface than perpendicular to them, which would clearly be the case if the winds were chiefly regulated by direct differences of pressure.
It is no doubt well known to you that two well-marked seasons of periodical wind recur regularly year by year along the coasts of southern Asia and over the neighbouring seas, known as the south-west monsoon of the summer months, and the north-east monsoon of the winter months. The high summer temperature of the great arid plateaus of Asia causes a dispersion of the air over them, which is marked by a very considerable fall of the barometric pressure over the whole continent, and is accompanied by a less great but perfectly distinct increase of pressure over the adjoining ocean regions south of the equator, which then have their winter season. Under the great difference of pressure thus established the air flows in powerfully towards the continent of Asia from the surrounding seas, the movements becoming well-marked in April with the rapid rise of temperature that then commences, and attaining their maximum in July, soon after the summer solstice. This is the south-west monsoon. When the temperature of Asia falls, which it does in September, as the sun goes rapidly south, the barometric pressure begins to be restored, and it becomes generally equalized over the southern parts of the continent in October, when this monsoon ceases.
The converse action takes place in the winter. The same causes which led to the great summer heat in Asia, namely, the great extent of dry and barren surface, produce excessive winter cold, which is accompanied by a well-marked increase of barometric pressure, again to be followed by the development of winds from the land towards the sea, which give rise to the north-east monsoon.
As is well known, the winds blowing northward from the equator bring air which has there acquired a high castward velocity of rotation to places where the velocity of surface rotation is less, and therefore are felt as winds impressed with an eastward movement, and this being combined with their northward movement produces the south-west winds of the summer monsoon. The
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movements towards the equator in a similar manner lead to the north-east winds of the winter monsoon.
But though this supplies the general key to the great changes in the winds of southern Asia, the local succession of their directions depends on special local influences, with disguise the general law, and may even in a great measure counteract it.
The south-west monsoon begins in the Arabian sea with north-west and westerly winds, which draw round to south-west as the summer advances, and again fall back by west to north in the autumn and winter. In the Bay of Bengal the south-west monsoon blows as a southerly or south-easterly wind being succeeded by north-easterly winds after October, which in turn give place as the winter months succeed, to winds from north and north-west.
Again, the winds during the south-west monsoon do not generally blow over the land in a south-westerly direction. The current of air flowing in from the sea is gradually diverted towards the area of least pressure, and at the same becomes dissipated and looses much of its original forces as it passes from the area of greater pressure and lower temperature to that of reduced pressure and higher temperature. The irregularities of the land surface also operate powerfully in destroying the uniform character which the winds maintain while passing over the uniform surface of the ocean. The great mountain ranges along the north of India act, moreover, as an effectual barrier to the movements of the wind in that direction. It is from these causes that we find the winds which blow over the Arabian sea from the south-west become southerly winds as they pass up the valley of the Indus; the winds of the Bay of Bengal which have already been diverted to the south, acquire an easterly tendency as they blow over the delta of the Ganges, and pass as south-east winds along the foot of the Himalaya towards the hotter regions in the north-west.
The body of air which is thus carried by the winds of the south-west monsoon from the ocean over India necessarily comes up highly charged with watery vapour; the conditions under which this vapour is released over the land in the form of rain, I next have to explain.
You are all familiar with the fact that water when heated passed into the condition of an invisible vapour, and that vapour when cooled is condensed again into water. Watery vapour like air, being an elastic fluid, is liable to vary in density and weight, and the greater the density the large will be the quantity of water held in suspension. But the quantity of water that can thus be kept
in the state of vapour depends on the temperature, and therefore when the temperature falls below a certain point some of the vapour is restored to the state of water, and only that part remains in the gaseous form that the particular temperature permits. When air contains as much vapour as is consistent with its temperature, it is said to be saturated with moisture; the proportion of actual vapour to the greatest possible quantity is termed the proportion of saturation.
The vapour formed by evaporation at the earth’s surface, which is much less dense than ordinary air, constantly tends to diffuse itself upwards, and thus becomes disseminated in the atmosphere. At the same time, since the temperature of the air falls about 1o Fahr. for each 300 feet that we rise from the sea level, the operation of this law leads to such a reduction of the heat in the upper strata, as to cool the ascending vapour, and at length to condense all that is in excess of what the reduced temperature of each successive stratum admits of being retained in the gaseous form.
The supply of vapour passing upwards is therefore being constantly reduced as it ascends, and it thus happens that nine-tenths of whole quantity of vapour in the entire atmosphere are to be found below an altitude of 20,000 feet. Where the evaporation at the surface is very copious, as it would be in a tropical sea with an air temperature for instance of 80o Fahr., if the vapour spread itself upwards according to the known laws which it obeys, we might commonly find the air near the surface to contain say four-fifths of the quantity required for saturation, and it would, therefore be perfectly transparent, and no condensation would occur. But these conditions would at length lead to the quantity of vapour that reached an elevation of 4,000 feet being incompatible with its existence there in a gaseous form, because the air temperature would be only 68o, while a temperature of about 70o would be necessary to admit of the vapour retaining its gaseous condition. Condensation would therefore have taken place below 4,000 feet, and a stratum of clouds would have formed, which according to circumstances might either be carried away and dispersed by winds, or discharge downwards the condensed water as rain. There is thus in the atmosphere at all times and places a more or less definite tendency towards the formation of cloud and the fall of rain by reason of the conflicting laws of the diffusion of vapour and of the distribution temperature in the atmosphere; and in strict truth our search might rather be for the causes that
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intercept or interfere with this action, than for those under which it continues to operate.
There are, however, circumstances which may so greatly add to the intensity of the condensation of vapour in the upper regions of the air as to call for special notice. Where a wind charged with vapour blows over an irregular surface, as from the sea across the face of a mountain, and the whole body of moving air is thus forced upwards, the expansion that follows is accompanied by a fall of temperature analogous to that which is observed in all the higher strata of the atmosphere; and as in this case the whole body of vapour is cooled down, instead of, as in the hypothesis I before made, only the portion that rose by diffusion to the higher level, the condensation is proportionally more copious and sudden, and takes the form of heavy clouds that rest on the mountain, or of rain that falls upon its slopes.
The mixture of cold with hot currents of air highly charged with vapour is another possible cause of the condensation of rain; though I think a not frequent one in the countries to which our attention is now specially directed.
We are now in a position to consider somewhat more in detail the phenomena of the Indian periodical rainy seasons. The primary agents are the high summer temperature of the continent, and the consequent influx of a current of air from the south, blowing over a great expanse of tropical ocean, and consequently highly charged with vapour. If at first there appears something anomalous in the chief rainy season occurring at the hottest part of the year, whereas the condensation that causes rain is essentially a result of cold, we have to remember that the requisite cold is relative and not absolute, and that as the water suspended in the air is
page 4 greater in proportion as the temperature is high, the quantity likely to be released by any disturbances capable of producing condensation will also be greater in a similar proportion. Moreover, the dispersion upwards, over the heated continent, of the air that flows in from the south, conduces to the increase of the quantity of vapour in the upper parts of the atmosphere, and to the maintenance of a state of unstable equilibrium in which moderate local disturbances of temperature are likely to cause condensation and produce rain.
The fall of temperature which follows the commencement of the rainy season is first, no doubt, an effect of the fall of rain, which brings to the surface of the
earth the water condensed in the much cooler higher strata; but the loss of heat is continued afterwards, in consequence of the sun’s movement southward, and the disposition to condensation is maintained as long as the southerly winds blow. As the change from the southerly to the northerly monsoon is concurrent with the rapid fall of temperature which begins in northern India about the end of September, the close of the rainy season, like its commencement, is commonly marked by heavy falls of rain; the one caused by the first over-throw of the equilibrium of the vapour unstably suspended in the highly heated air at the solstice, and the other by the direct loss of heat which is experienced after the equinox.
The summer rains make their first appearance on the southern parts of the west coast in April, where the southerly winds have then become established. The region of greatest heat is now to be found at the northern part of the peninsula, the winds at Bombay not yet blowing from a point south of west. By the middle of June, as the area of greatest heat has advanced north-ward, and the winds have drawn well to the southward in the Indian seas, the rains begin to fall at Bombay, about which time also they become established at Calcutta.
The fall on the west coast is very abundant. The scarp of the table-land, or Western Ghats, which forms an almost continuous obstacle in the path of the south west winds, gives rise to great condensation, from causes already explained, the result being excessively heavy falls of rain along the face of the mountains exposed to the sea, and on the country between them and the sea, on the more exposed parts of the former the quantity measured reaching more than 250 inches, and on the latter from 100 to 120 inches. To leeward on this like of elevation the rain very rapidly diminishes, so that the quantity measured at Poona, 60 miles from the coast, is only 25 inches. Manifestly, after any great quantity of rain has been once condensed from the south-west winds, there remains relatively little to supply the districts to leeward; and if, as is here the case, the obnstructing range of heights is considerably more elevated than the surface of the table-land, probability of further condensation after the wind passes that range is much reduced. The ridge, however, in fact, is a good deal broken in its outline, and openings occur at intervals through which more or less vapour passes and aid in supplying rain to the table-land.
The gradual extinction of the very heavy rainfall of the Malabar coast as we approach Cape Comorin, near which we have less than 30 inches, and the corresponding diminution at the northern extremity of the coast, are
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readily explained by the smaller amount of disturbance caused by the more broken character of the mountain ranges, and by the air being able to pass round the end of the barrier instead of being forced over it. The fact that during this season the rain only extends 40 or 50 miles from the coast out to sea plainly depends on a similar cause.
Following the coast westward, we find that though the south-west winds blow with great force and regularity over the coast, at the mouth of the Indus and in Sindh the fall of rain is very small and irregular. For here this wind meets with no such obstruction as that of the line of Western Ghats. On the contrary, the air passes from a comparatively cool sea surface, over a very hot surface of low land, and any tendency to condensation that might be caused by the slight rise over the land, is more than compensated by the increased temperature.
The current, therefore, passes on as a southerly wind, carrying with it the uncondensed vapour over Sindh, to be at length precipitated on the outer ranges of the Himalaya in the Punjab, or on the mountains of eastern Afghanistan. There is no room to doubt, that had a range of mountains, such as the Western Ghats, connected the high land of the Indian peninsula with that of Baluchistan, the whole of the Punjab must have been what the country that lies between it and the sea is, almost entirely deprived or rain.
The importance of the great valleys of the Taptee and Nerbudda, in connection with the rainfall of Central India, will now be apparent. Up these openings the south-west winds pour their vapour bearing streams, and furnish to a large area in the heart of the peninsula the rain which is precipitated by the atmospheric disturbances that occur around the high lands in the center of the table-land. This diversion of the vapour-bearing currents aids, no doubt, in producing the diminished fall of rain observed in the northern coast districts around Guzerat, as compared to those near Bombay and farther south, and serves to explain the increased fall of between 40 and 50 inches in Central India, as compared to that, between 20 and 30 inches, in the Deccan.
The south-west winds of the west coast do not, properly speaking, extend across the peninsula. On the Madras coast, during the south-west monsoon, the land and sea breezes continue to be strongly marked, whereas on the west coast they disappear, and the rainfall between May and September over the southern and eastern portion of the peninsula is relatively small.
On the opposite coast of the Bay of Bengal, and along the Malay peninsula, excessively heavy rain the
rule during this season, the quantity being from 100 to 200 inches. Here, too, a continuous line of mountain follows the coast facing the prevailing winds. On reaching the straits of Malacca, and passing under the lee of the island of Sumatra, the rain diminishes greatly; and at Singapore, at the point of the peninsular, the months between April and September are decidedly the least rainy half of the year, the largest fall taking place in the north-east monsoon, when the winds reach Singapore blowing directly from over the sea.
Phenomena exactly similar to those observed on the Western Ghats occur on the mountains east of Bengal. At Chira Punji, on the Khasiya hills, which rise abruptly to about 4,000 or 5,000 feet over the delta of the Ganges, the rainfall is believed to exceed that known at any other place on the earth, more than 600 inches being a not unusual annual amount.
The difference between Bengal, with a rainfall of from 60 to 70 inches, and Sindh, with hardly any, is very remarkable. It is sufficiently explained by the distribution of the high land that is contingous to the former, and, indeed, almost surrounds it. The great mountains on the north communicate with the ranges on the east which separate Bengal from the upper parts of Burmah, and form a serious obstacle to atmospheric movements in that direction. These ranges are all well clothed with forest, and the temperature of the whole area over which they extend must be considerably lower than that of the country to the west of them. This is accompanied by a higher barometrical pressure, which leads to the development of easterly winds during the summer months blowing from Eastern Bengal to the far hotter regions of north-western India, where the barometric pressure is least. From these causes, the rains begin much earlier in Assam and its neighbourhood than in any other part of India, viz in April, soon after the southerly winds are established at the head of the Bay of Bengal; and a tendency towards such early rains is discernible in all the Bengal registers. Thus the conditions are very different from those of Sindh, the free onward progress of the winds being arrested in Bengal by the current set up towards the north-west, and the influx or relatively cool air from the east preventing any tendency to a rise of temperature in the air coming up from the Bay of Bengal as it passes over the land, such as would stand in the way of local condensation.
The rainy season rapidly develops itself from Bengal towards the north-west, the fall gradually decreasing in amount at the rain-bearing winds pass on; a fact readily
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explained by the consideration, that as the condensation of the vapour goes on, less remains to supply the more distant localities.
Concurrently with the reduction of the rainfall in passing from east to west in northern India, we find an increase in the quantity as we approach the Himalaya, and a diminution as we recede from the range, the gradation being distinctly marked, from a distance of 150 or 200 miles to the foot of the mountains. On the outer slopes of the Himalaya the fall is very greatly increased, but it rapidly diminishes again in amount as we penetrate among the mountains.
These results are brought about in a manner that deserves particular attention. At all times of the year winds blow up the valleys of the Himalaya towards the
page 5 highest parts of the chain, and down them at night; the day winds having their greatest force at the high passes into Tibet, and the night winds at the debouches of the great rivers into the plains. Such winds are well known to be characteristic of all mountain ranges. They are no doubt due to the disturbance of the planes of atmospheric equilibrium, caused by the alternations of temperature in the air over the mountains and low lands. A column of air over the low land, measured from any horizontal plane of equilibrium, being longer, will expand more and contract more; one over the mountain, being shorter, will expand and contract less. As the day advances, and the heat increases, the planes of equal pressure will all rise over the low land, and the air will flow towards the axis of the elevation; as the night comes on, and the temperature falls, the greater contraction of the longer columns over the low land will bend the planes of equal pressure from the axis of elevation outwards, and the air will move in that direction.
Thus a system of aspiration is established over the mountains, by which the vapour-charged air that comes up from the sea is drawn up from the plains along the valleys and over the outer ranges, and is so brought under the operation of that sort of action which we have already seen to be so efficacious in producing condensation. These movements serve also to explain what seems peculiar in the gradation of the rainfall within and without the mountains. It is, I think, also to the same cause that we may trace the circumstance, that the first heavy falls of rain in upper India take place on the mountains, and that the disturbances are thence developed and extended which lead to a general fall over the plains.
In northern India the summer rains usually cease before the end of September; in Bengal and along the Arracan coast they are prolonged into October. In western and central India also a little rain falls in October. Over all this area northerly winds are commonly established in October, and the rain that falls at this time must be regarded as the residual condensation under the increasing cold of autumn of the vapour previously brought up by the southerly winds.
With the fall of temperature in September, the region of least pressure is rapidly transferred to the south, and the northerly winds begin first in the north and gradually extend southward; though the southerly winds still continue to blow at the end of the peninsula till November. These changes lead to the establishment of a current of air from the Bay of Bengal, blowing as a north-easterly wind towards the Madras coast, along which there is, in consequence, set up an autumn season of heavy rain lasting from October to December, quite analogous in its efficient causes to the summer rainy season of the western coast. This rain usually extends from about the great bend in the east coast to Ceylon, though its influence is at times felt as far north as Cuttack; and it is of essential importance to all the eastern border of southern India, which, as was before explained, receives but a scanty supply during the south-west monsoon.
It may here be noticed that the cyclones that originate in the Bay of Bengal in October and November appear to be results of atmospheric movements and condensation developed over an area of low pressure that remains in the bay, after a high pressure area has begun to form rapidly over Eastern Bengal, with the fall of temperature accompanying the close of the year; and that the tendency to the formation of cyclonic movements is to be seen in the north-easterly winds that usually prevail in the north and west of the bay, while south-westerly winds are still blowing in the southern and eastern parts. The cyclones of May and June appear to originate further south, and to depend on some manner still imperfectly explained on the arrival of the winds highly charged with vapour which begin to blow strongly at that season.
The map which is before you resumes the facts into which I have been entering in some detail. It shows that the part of India east of the 80th meridian has an average yearly rainfall for the most part exceeding 40 inches, and that, excepting the country between the Western Ghats and the sea, the portion west of that meridian has a smaller rainfall. Further, we see that the quantity is
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extremely small all over Sindh, and that the tract in which the fall is less than 30 inches includes all the Punjab excepting the mountain districts, a considerable part of the North-Western Provinces extending to half-way between Agra and Allahabad, a large part of Rajpootana and Kattywar. Again, we observe a large area in the peninsula, occupying nearly the whole of the Deccan and Mysore, on which also the rainfall is less than 30 inches.
Of the area in which the rainfall is below 15 or 20 inches, it may be said in general terms that agriculture is not there possible otherwise than with artificial irrigation; and thus it has happened that the population of the districts where the rain is of all others least abundant, have made themselves in a very great degree independent of the local rainfall. On the other hand, it may also be said that where the average rainfall exceeds 40 or 50 inches, the occurrence of such drought as will cause serious scarcity is rate, though when it does occur it may be very severe. It was in a portion of this area that the Bengal famine of 1873 took place, and also that of Orissa in 1866.
The region, the average rainfall of which is between 25 and 35 inches, is probably that which suffers most from droughts. Here, although on the average the supply of rain is sufficient to support an agricultural population, the fluectuations which reduce the fall below what is essential are so frequent, as to lead to repeated seasons of scarcity of greater or less severity. The north-western part of the North-West Provinces, the north-western part of Rajputana, and the Deccan, with a small part of the Madras districts at the end of the peninsula, fall within this category. The present scarcity affects the whole of the dry region of the peninsula. The drought of 1837-38 was extremely severe in the North-West Provinces, as also was that of 1860. In Rajputana a very severe scarcity, followed by great destruction of life, occurred in 1868.
For reasons already suggested, the results of drought have a tendency to be more fatal where the average rainfall is abundant, than where it is scanty. In the latter case, the population is less likely to be dense, and better able by its habits to go in search of subsistence elsewhere, and by its sparseness to succeed in procuring it. A more dense population will be less easily provided for; and in proportion as experience of drought is small, skill in devising means of resisting its effects will be small also, when once present resources are exhausted. Drought also will be more or less fatal, according as it follows a season of bad or good rainfall; and it has commonly happened that severe famines have been caused by a severe drought
following one of two years of indifferent rain. The stocks of food become exhausted and the cattle and the population enfeebled, and thus less able to resist the pressure put on them.
In a country where there is no pasture like India, the feeding of the agricultural cattle is always a difficulty, and their condition is commonly extremely poor, viewed in relation to the standard of temperate countries. The effect of drought in the destruction of the cattle is one of its surest and most pernicious evil consequences.
It will be apparent that the importance of the fall of rain in India, for general purposes of agriculture, will be determined by the requirements of the principal crops, and particularly on those crops on which the food supply of the people depends.
The people of India subsist for the most part on vegetable food, cereal grains, pulses, and vegetables, with milk and butter. Other animal food, excepting on the coasts where fish is procurable, is comparatively little eaten, even among the Mussulmans, who form about one-tenth of the population. The grain crops, therefore, are of unusually great importance. The grains most commonly consumed in three-fourths of India are millets, called in the Hindee dialects, jowar and bajra. Rice is the ordinary food of the people of those regions only where the conditions of climate are suitable for the abundant production of this grain. This would include Bengal, the coast and southern districts of Madras, and the western districts of Bombay, as well as British Burmah. Contrary to what is commonly thought to be the case, the rice-eating population of India is altogether in a minority.
These food-grains, and some others which I need not mention specially, are plants suited to tropical conditions of climate, and they are all raised in the summer or hot half of the year, the crop of which season is known in most parts of India as the khureef. There is, however, a second crop, more particularly characteristic of the parts of India which have the coldest winter, which is on the ground during the winter months, and is called rubbee.
The khureef is usually sown as soon as the rainfall admits of the ploughing of the land, and it is reaped in September or October. The rice crop varies some-what in its time of sowing and of ripening according to locality and variety. The chief harvest in Bengal is in December; on the Madras coast, farther south, the
page 6 later rains lead to a still later harvest, where there is but one; but the more tropical climate of the south admits an
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almost indefinite succession of crops wherever an artificial water-supply is available to raise them.
It need perhaps hardly to said that most varieties of rice require a large quantity of water to raise them; and aid in some shape or other is given by artificial means in most parts of India to the natural rain-supply, to ensure the safety of this crop. Particularly in the south of India, multitudes of reservoirs have been constructed with this object, in which as large a supply of rain-water is collected as is practicable, to supplement the direct fall. Larger irrigation works have been carried out by the British Government, to divert, with a similar object, the waters of most of the rivers that discharge themselves on the east coast.
The grains, called jowar and bajra, are commonly sown on the higher lands, and left to depend entirely on the natural rainfall. Their requirements in the way of water are very much less than those of rice and it is very unusual to supply them with artificial irrigation.
The rubbee crop is usually sown in October, and ripens in March or April. In the north of India it consists chiefly of wheat and barley, which grains, however, hardly enter into the ordinary food of the agricultural population, being reserved for the better-to-do classes and town population. Certain pulses that are largely used for food also are raised at this season. Excepting on the high lands of Central India and the Deccan, wheat does not thrive much south of the tropic; and in the southern parts of the peninsula the reduction of temperature in the winter months is hardly sufficient to develop any distinctly temperate agriculture, such as forms a very marked feature of northern India.
Great irrigation works exist also in several provinces of northern India. These probably afford more aid to the rubbee than to the khureef harvest; and their chief importance in connection with the food supply of the country is without doubt due to the security which they give to the wheat and barley harvests, though their general utility in adding to agricultural produce of all descriptions is very great.
In considering the more special requirements of agriculture in the matter of rain, and the precise manner in which a partial failure is likely to be mischievous or otherwise, the critical times have to be distinguished. First, as the great power of the tropical sun utterly dries up the soil in the hot months that precede the rainy season, the first showers are almost essential to admit of the final ploughing, and the sowing may thus be unduly late in unfavourable seasons. Where artificial irrigation is
available, this delay is avoided. Next, the thorough saturation of the soil, and its maintenance in a sufficient state of moisture, are requisite for the germination of the seed, and this is always one of the most critical periods for every crop. In many cases thoroughly faourable rain at this state will secure a return of some sort, even in an otherwise very bad season; and a bad commencement may often be beyond remedy, however good the subsequent falls may turn out. The next critical stage is that of flowering, when a great access of rain may be almost as fatal as a want of it, by causing the destruction of the parts of the flower essential for the development of the grain. The period immediately follows in which the grain is fertilized and takes its ultimate form, during which the supply of moisture to the plant is not less essential than in the first stage of its life, and any serious failure of rain is fatal to the harvest. Thus, even though the average fall in any year may be fully enough to carry on the ordinary processes of growth, the failure of rain even for a few days at one of the critical periods may lead to a complete loss. The drought of 1873 in northern Bengal arose from the failure of the later rains alone. The troubles of the present time seem to be due to a general failure, both of the south-west monsoon rains on the west coast, and of those of the succeeding north-east monsoon on the east coast; a combination of evil fortune which, it will be seen, necessarily falls with the greatest weight upon the southern districts of Madras.
In attempting to give any general account of the phenomena of Indian rainfall, it has of course been necessary for me to deal with average quantities. But the departures from these averages in separate years are very great; and it is from the fluctuations that thus occur, that the areas of average small and large rainfall may be transformed, without any considerable derangement of the general sequence of phenomena that I have described, into areas of abundance or absolute drought. Thus the well-marked loops that are formed by lines of equal rainfall having their points directed to the eastward, and following generally the line of the Jumna and Ganges from the Punjab to Bengal, indicate the probability, which is supported by actual experience, of areas of drought being formed along this axial line. I apprehend that the Bengal drought of 1873, which affected, though with less intensity, the adjacent districts of the north-west provinces along the Ganges, may be regarded as due to the local exaggeration of the general causes that lead to the peculiar inflexion of the lines of rainfall to which I have alluded.
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The great extent of the fluctuations of the rainfall will be shown by the following figures. The Madras average for sixty-four years is 48.5 inches, the greatest excess over the average being 39.9 inches, and the greatest defect below it 30.1 inches. At Calcutta, for forty-seven years, the average is 65.8 inches, with a maximum excess of 27.5 inches and a defect of 22.2 inches. At Bombay, for fifty-two years the average between May and October being 76.9 inches, the maximum excess was 42.0 inches, and the defect 41.8 inches. At the three places, the average deviation of a single year from the mean of all is found to be, for Madras 12.4 inches, for Calcutta 9.0 inches, and for Bombay 13.4 inches.
No precise physical connection has hitherto been established between the local rainfall at any place in India, and the temperature or pressure of the surrounding area; and no certain step has yet been made, so far as I know, towards foretelling the character of the seasons. In these respects, however, our knowledge is not less as regards India, than other countries.
An opinion has, indeed, been quite recently published by Dr. Hunter, to the effect that the rainfall registers at Madras, which extend over sixty-four years, supply evidence of a connection between the quantity of rain and the sun-spot cycles of eleven years or thereabouts. This idea is not novel, having been advanced some years ago by Mr. Meldrum and others, on the alleged basis of facts collected from many different parts of the globe.
So far as Dr. Hunter’s views are concerned, I have no hesitation in stating my own conviction, that the facts on which he relies do not support his conclusions. He has inferred, from what must be held to be altogether insufficient numerical data, that sure indications of periodicity exist. He arrives, by an arithmetical process, at certain figures, which he regards as the probable mean amount of rainfall in the successive years of the eleven-year cycle, and finding a maximum and minimum among them, he infers that this is a proof of a true periodical variation. But such a result alone proves nothing. To test its value it is necessary to compare the calculated quantities of rain for the several years with the quantities actually observed, and then to consider whether the differences are of a character to justify the belief that the calculated quantities afford a reliable approximation to the truth, and what sort of approximation. Dr. Hunter does not seem to have been aware of the necessity for exercising this caution, though the extreme variation of
the rainfall from year to year, to which reference has already been made, would appear to have been likely to suggest it. The only conclusion that seems possible, from such an examination of the figures as I have described, is the negative one, that they cannot be accepted as supplying any evidence in support of the views put forward by Dr. Hunter.
Though this argument is mainly negative, and goes rather to discredit the alleged proof of Dr. Hunter’s conclusion, than the conclusion itself, yet much doubt appears to me to be thrown on the probability of any such direct connection between the rainfall at Madras and the sun-spot period as has been spoken of, by a comparison of the Madras observations with those made during the same period at Calcutta and Bombay. It is extremely difficult to conceive, that if such a connection existed at Madras, it should not be apparent at the other two places; yet the same treatment applied to the Calcutta and Bombay figures as that adopted for Madras shows no correspondence in the results. Neither can any persistent relation be seen to exist between the quantities of rainfall at the three places. There is an occasional likeness at one time between one pair, at another between a second, and again between the third, but no uniformity. And this is what might have been expected, from what we know of the general manner in which precipitations of rain take
page 7 place, and the oscillations of wet and dry weather occur.*
On the whole, our knowledge of the immediate physical causes of rainfall is very rudimentary; and though there be no present appearance of success in solving the intricate problems that an inquiry into those causes must involve, it can only be by help of a careful examination in detail of all the facts that it can become possible at all. Such a collection of facts has at length been seriously commenced; but what I have already said will indicate the great complexity of this subject, and the many difficulties that will have to be encountered in grasping it in a satisfactory war.
Such being the general position of India in respect to the rainfall necessary for its agriculture and its food supply, and man having no possible means of exercising any control over the atmospheric changes which are effective in adding to or reducing the quantity of rain and
* See, for further development of the Author’s views, his paper in the Proceedings of the Royal Society, pp.249-261, May 1877.
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And if the people of India have on the one hand specially heavy burdens to bear in resisting these and other destructive forces of nature arising from their climate, which will certainly tax their strength to the utmost, yet on the other they find ready to their hands unusual aid in the great reproductive powers of their soil, also due to the same cause. Neither can we estimate as of small value to them, the wealth, the knowledge, and the practical skill in all the arts of life, possessed by their British rulers, and so largely employed to their advantage. But that the task will in any case be a very heavy and tedious one to be got through, no one can doubt, who has passed a large part of his life, as I have done, in seeking for the means of extending those essential material allies in the battle of Indian life—irrigation works and railways.
having no present power of foreseeing these changes, it may be asked whether we therefore have no hope of escaping from the terrible consequences of drought. In my opinion there can be no doubt of the possibility of combating successfully its worst results by the progress of civilization; by which I mean, that improved social condition in which the accumulated knowledge and material resources of a community are applied in the most effectual way to meet its requirements. The result at which we aim in India can be brought about by this, and this alone; as this, and this alone, has been able to bring it about in other countries. But as such progress is necessarily slow, we must be content for the present to pass through a condition of periodical suffering of an acute kind, during which the bitter lessons of experience will continue to urge improvement; and thereby intelligence will be stimulated, and ways of escape from these evils will be gradually perfected. These ways of escape are indeed already sufficiently evident, and so far as they have been hitherto applied, have been found to be thoroughly efficacious. They are the provision of artificial irrigation, and of improved means of transport; the first, to give a certain supply of water for the purposes of agriculture, increasing production generally, and supplementing the rainfall so as to prevent calamitous drought; and the second to provide facilities for the economical distribution of food, and for the operations of commerce, by which wealth is increased. Simple as these remedies may appear, the material difficulties in the way of their being furnished to the extent necessary to remove the evils now under consideration, cannot at present be surmounted. They require the application of capital, that is to say, the accumulated results of labour, which, to meet the requirements of the present case, may possibly still have to be prolonged over very many years. For India must perforce supply her own needs from her own material resources. Nowhere, nor at any time, has the benevolence of others succeeded in removing the burden imposed on every community of providing for its own existence under pain of extinction. Even if it were possible that external aid could be given on an adequate scale to supply the requisite material appliances, it is certain that the moral qualities would not have been developed, by which along those appliances could be successfully made use of self-reliance, and, what this quality makes possible, self sacrifice.
True humanity assuredly demands of all Englishmen their co-operation in what will really conduce to the mitigation of the calamities caused by Indian droughts. But it is certain that there is only one possible mode of escape, namely through labour. The fruits of industry in years of plenty must be made to meet the want in years of scarcity; and relief is to be obtained by means of the combined and continued exertions of the localities immediately concerned, and no longer by relying on assistance to be supplied from without. There is no escape from the conclusion that the conditions of their existence impose on the people of India severe suffering and periodic partial destruction, if they submit to these conditions unresisting; severe toil, and persistent intelligent effort, if they are to escape their extreme consequences. The Government and the people must everywhere have this practically enforced upon them, and until it is done the movement will not have fairly set in the right direction. Experience in India leads to exactly the same conclusions as those arrived at elsewhere, that a system of public relief in time of distress, not guarded by the sense of specific local financial responsibility, is a source of grievous abuse, misery, and demoralization; and it is my earnest hope that no temporary impulse of sympathy with present suffering, no selfish (if I may be allowed so to apply the term), no selfish effort to escape at any cost the pain of witnessing it, may be permitted to stand in the way of that real benevolence which is founded on sound principles drawn by dispassionate intelligence from the lessons of experience, principles which I am glad to believe have been adopted by the highest authorities concerned in the government of India.
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NOTE ON THE RAINFALL OF INDIA, BY MR. H. F. BLANFORD, METEOROLOGICAL REPORTER TO THE GOVERNMENT OF INDIA
In its origin the rainfall of India is derived exclusively from the evaporation of the Indian Ocean and the two great gulfs which bathe the coasts of the peninsula. A secondary source of supply is the re-evaporation of the fallen rain from the wet land surface, and also from rivers, tanks, marshes, irrigated tracts, and the vegetation; but this becomes of importance only at that season when the direct supply from the ocean is most abundant. The products of re-evaporation are carried forward by the same winds which bring the main vapour-supply from the ocean, and they operate, therefore, only in adding somewhat to the total precipitation and extending the area over which this is discharged. Certainly it is a practical question of high importance, in what measure vegetation, and more especially forest vegetation, thus adds to the total rainfall of the country. But the discussion may be advantageously deferred for the present, since the beneficial action of forests, regarded as a source of vapour, is of less importance than that which they exert as regulation of the subsoil storage, and it will be convenient at a later period to consider their action as a whole. In treating of the agencies by which vapour is conveyed and discharged over the land, it is unnecessary to distinguish between original and secondary sources of supply.
By far the greater part of the rainfall of India is brought direct from the ocean between the months of June and October by the regular periodic wind known as the south-west, or, as I prefer to call it, the summer monsoon. The primary cause of this current is now known to be the high temperature which is acquired by the land surface of India itself, and more especially of Northern India,† during the three months that precede the summer solstice. Under the continued and increasing radiation of the spring sun traversing a comparatively cloudless sky, the lower strata of the air in contact with the ground gradually acquire a temperature greatly above that of the seas that bathe the shores of the peninsula, and, being expanded, lift the superincumbent strata which flow away in the higher regions, as a consequence of which the diminished mass presses with less and less weight on the land surface. It is only by slow degrees that an excessive temperature is imparted from the lower to the higher strata; and on an average it is not, therefore, until a
page 8 week or two before the summer solstice that the pressure is sufficiently reduced to set in motion that steady current of air from the ocean which I have spoken of as the summer monsoon. This reaches India in two main branches. That from the Arabian Gulf strikes the coast of the peninsula from a direction about west-south-west, and, meeting the mural barrier of the Western Ghats, discharges an excessive amount of rain on the western face of that range and the narrow belt of low country (the Konkan and Malabar) at its foot. The current, thus partially exhausted, surmounts the crest of the range, and continues its course across the peninsula, bringing a much diminished, indeed a comparatively scanty, rainfall to the plateaus of the Deccan and Mysore, and only occasional showers to the eastern fringing plain of the Carnatic. But in the northern part of the peninsula, where the valleys of the Tapti and Nerbudda offer freer access to the interior, and where the current impinges on the broken cast and west ranges of the Satpuras, the discharge is more copious; it brings a large proportion of the rain falling on the Central Provinces, Orissa, and the plateaux of Malwa and Bandelkhand, which extend north of the Satpura range to the confines of the Ganges valley. In the northern part of the Bombay Presidency, viz., Guzerat and Kattywar, in Rajputana and Sind, its influence is less felt. The high temperature of these more arid tracts is unfavourable to precipitation, and the strictly marine wind is frequently interrupted by, and intermingled with, more westerly currents, which blow from the dry plain of the Mekran coast and the hills of Beluchistan.
The other branch of the summer monsoon sweeps the Bay of Bengal on a south-west course, impinging full on the face of the coast ranges of Arakan and Burma, where the rainfall is as heavy as on the western coast of India, and also the hills of Eastern Bengal and Assam, the plains of Cachar and Sylhet. The trend of the Madras coast being almost north and south, while the general direction of the current is from the south-west, the plains of the Carnatic are almost completely excluded from its influence; but north of the Godavery mouths, where the coast-line changes its course to north-east, a certain indraught takes place, and it contributes a certain amount of rain to the narrow plain of the Northern Circars and Orissa, as well as to the hills of this portion of the Eastern Ghats. The † Not, as was formerly supposed, that of Central Asia.
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remainder of the current reaching the shores of the Gangetic delta is diverted to north and north-west, blows across the plateau of Western Bengal and up the Gangetic plain, and brings a tolerably copious, but steadily diminishing, rainfall to the upper part of the Ganges valley, and even to the Punjab beyond. On the north of the valley it meets the outer slopes of the Himalaya, which determine a heavy precipitation of the vapour; and the influence of this obstacle extends far into the plains, since the line of minimum rainfall coincides a approximately with the main stream of the Ganges. In the Punjab, indeed, the belt of plain country over which the rainfall thus brought by easterly winds in sufficient to admit of agriculture does not exceed 100 to 150 miles in breadth, and terminates against the desert tracts of Bikanir and the arid doabs of the Punjab rivers.
It has been mentioned above that, owing to their position under the ice of the highlands of the peninsula, the plains of the Carnatic receive only occasional showers during the prevalence of the summer monsoon. But in October, when the strength of this current towards the head of the Bay of Bengal slackens in consequence of the falling temperature and rising pressure of Upper India, and when the rains of the Punjab and of the Upper Gangetic valley are virtually at an end, the high temperature and consequently low pressure of the Carnatic are sufficient in average years to cause a recurvature of the current towards this province, producing the autumn rains which are characteristic of the Madras Presidency, and are indeed those on which the cultivators chiefly rely for filling the tanks on which so much of the local cultivation depends. The retreat of the summer monsoon from the Upper Provinces and its recurvature towards the Carnatic takes place gradually. In September the wind becomes easterly in Bengal and after the end of the month but little rain reaches the Punjab and Upper Provinces. In October the winds are variable, but tending to become northerly in Northern India generally; but in the peninsula they are more or less easterly, and, coming from the Bay of Bengal, carry a certain amount of rain to the Deccan, more to the southern than to the northern districts. Thus, while the former receive on an average from 1 ½ to 4 inches, the latter and Mysore receive from 3 ½ to 6 inches. On the east coast of the peninsula, False Point registers 12 ½ inches, Vizagapatam about the same, and Madras nearly 11 inches. In November, however, while False Point has less than 3 inches and Vizagapatam less than 2. Madras has more than 13 inches, and Jaffna, at the north extremity of
Ceylon, 15 ½ inches. There is, however, at this season a regularly recurring tendency to the formation of another region of low atmospheric pressure over the bay in the neighbourhood of the Andaman Islands. This depression acts as an antagonistic influence to that of the Carnatic, and indeed of the peninsula generally. It is the chief cradle of the disastrous cyclonic storms which characterize the Bay of Bengal at this season; and in some years, when, owing to independent causes, the pressure of the Carnatic is relatively higher than usual, the vapour which might otherwise be expended on the plains of Madras is here condensed and precipitated in unusual abundance, and the easterly and northerly winds generally prevailing in the Carnatic at this season are replaced by a more northerly current coming from the land surface of the peninsula itself. Such was notably the case in 1876. Under such circumstances there is a failure of the Madras rains. In good years the Madras rains continue for about two months, viz., to the middle of December, by which time the north-east or winter monsoon has established itself over the bay, bringing fine, clear, and comparatively cool weather.
Meanwhile, in Upper India, the Punjab and North-Western Provinces, the cessation of the summer rains is followed by a rapid fall of temperature under cloudless skies. A cool dry gentle current sets in from the north-west, flowing down the Ganges valley towards Bengal, and from the north across the plateau of Bandelkhand to the Satpuras, south of which it becomes easterly, and sets towards the Bombay coat. Still further south it partly coalesces with easterly winds from the recurring and expiring monsoon of the Bay of Bengal; so that, as has been already mentioned, the plateaux of the South Maharatta Country, Hyderabad, and Mysore receive a certain small amount of rain in October, and sometimes even later. In Lower and Eastern Bengal also, and on the Arakan coast, a few inches of rain are expected in October, and are important for filling out the ear of the later rain-crops, and for the sowing and germination of the cold-weather crops. But the later part of October and November and the first part of December in Northern India are generally rainless; and the winter rains, which may be considered as recurring regularly only in Upper India rarely set in much before Christmas, and are sometimes deferred till January.
These winter rains are brought to the Upper Provinces by winds having locally the same general direction as the summer monsoon, that is to say, east and south-east. But on the hills to the north of the Gangetic
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plain, the wind which brings up the clouds is generally more southerly, and even south-west; and a precipitation of snow takes place with northerly or north westerly winds, which are probably only the local course of the air circulating around a barometric minimum. On the hills, indeed, after November this south-westerly wind is most prevalent, and appears to be the winter anti monsoon—the return current which blows above the northerly winds, and occasionally descends to the earth’s surface in latitudes lower than tropics. It is essentially a warm and damp wind, a felt in Northern India; and, when it blows from the sea, reaches the Upper Provinces charged with moisture, which is precipitated in the winter rains of the plains and the snows of the mountain tract. The barometer falls on its approach, and rises again rapidly when it is displaced by a westerly wind. In the Punjab, the North-Western Provinces, Central India, and Rajputana, the winter rains, though small in quantity, are of high importance to agriculture. They are second in importance only to the late September rains; the latter being essential to the germination of the winter wheat crops, and the former for filling the ear after the formation of the seed. In Lower Bengal they are less regular, and here the cultivation, being of a different character, is less dependent, being of a different character, is less dependent on them; while in the peninsula generally, excepting some parts of the Central Provinces, they are all but unknown. The winter rains of the Upper Provinces are gentle and not very copious, unaccompanied by stormy winds. But they pass by insensible degrees into the spring rains, which have a wider distribution, and are generally accompanied by vivid electrical phenomena—strong gusts of wind and frequently hail. Hence they are often rather destructive
page 9 than beneficial. The vapour is furnished by the winds which set in on the coast as early as February, or even January, and penetrate by degrees further and further into the country, where, meeting the dry westerly winds from the interior, they form eddies, especially in the evening hours, causing a heavy precipitation, which is generally of short duration. These storms are most frequent, and bring the heaviest rainfall, in Lower Bengal and the low plains on the west coast of the Bay of Bengal. But they extend inland throughout the Gangetic plain and into the Central Provinces, as far as Nagpur. On the northern part of Deccan plateaux, in the Bombay Presidency, excepting in the immediate neighbourhood of the Ghats, in Berar, and on the Bombay coast, they very rarely occur; the whole
internal from October to June being practically rainless, and after March or April the storms of the Punjab, Sind, and Rajputana have the character of violent, but short-lived, dust-storms, with little or no rain.
Hence, with respect to periodic distribution, the fall of rain in the different parts of India may be summarized as follows. From June to September rain, more or less heavy and frequent, falls over the entire area, excepting indeed on the dry plains around the Lower Indus (Sind and Bikaner), where it is always very scanty, and occasionally fails together; while around the borders of this region (a part of the Punjab and Western Rajputana), and also in the Carnatic, it is restricted to occasional showers. In October, when the summer rains have ceased in upper India and are coming to an end in Bengal, Assam, the Arakan coast, and the greater part of the peninsula, the heavy rainfall of Madras sets in, and continues till the middle or latter end of December. A little later than this begin the light winter rains of Upper India, which are most abundant in the Punjab, but extend occasionally down to Lower Bengal and the Central provinces. These fall at intervals till the end of March or beginning of April in the Upper Provinces, after which another dry period sets in, lasting till the end of June. But in Lower Bengal, Assam, and Orissa the falls of rain become more frequent and copious from January onwards, having the character of afternoon-storms chiefly. The rains become heavy and continuous in Assam and Cachar some weeks earlier than in Bengal, and in Bengal and Bombay a fortnight or three weeks earlier than in the Upper Provinces. On the coast of Malabar also they are a week or ten days earlier than in Bombay. In Madras and the Carnatic generally, occasional showers are expected after February, but no steady rains till October. In the greater part of the Bombay presidency rain is rare between October and June.
The normal distribution of the rainfall in respect of quantity is illustrated in the accompanying chart, originally drawn up for the use of he Forest Department. Two zones of excessive rainfall, varying from 70 to upwards of 200 inches (and in certain localities far exceeding even this),* characterize respectively the line
*The following places afford instances:- Inches
Cherrapoonjee in the Khasi hills 485 Buxa Fort in the Bhutan Duars 218 Sandoway on the Arakan coast 218 Mahableshwar on the Western Ghats 252 Matheran, an isolated hill near Bombay 256 Baura Fort on the Western Ghats 252
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of the Western Ghats and the outer slopes of the Himalaya with the hills of Eastern Bengal and Cachar and the coast ranges of Arakan and Burma. The latter belt includes nearly the whole of Assam, the plains of Cachar, Sylhet, and the eastern margin of the Gangetic delta, the coast plains of Arakan, and the delta of the Irrawadi. Over a much larger area the annual precipitation varies from 30 to 70 inches, viz., the remainder of Bengal, Orissa, the Gangetic plain as far west as Cawnpore; and, beyond this, a belt, diminishing from 100 to 50 or 60 miles in width, which skirts the base of the Himalaya up to the further extremity of the Punjab. It also includes the whole of the Central Provinces, the plateaux of Bandelkhand and Malwa, the eastern half of Hyderabad, the Eastern Ghats, and the coast plain of the Carnatic down to Point Calimere, with a narrow belt on the summit of the Western Ghats. The remainder of the peninsula has a rainfall of less than 30 inches, and in certain limited tracts as low as between 10 and 15 inches only. This dry region includes the eastern half of the Deccan plateaux and Hyderabad, Mysore, and the plains of Coimbatore and Madura. Another equally dry region to the north-west includes Kattywar, a large part of Western Rajputana, the North-Western Provinces around Agra and Delhi, and a belt of less than 100 miles wide in the North-Eastern Punjab; and finally the remainder of Rajputana, Sind, and the southern half of the Punjab has an average fall of less than 15—indeed, for the most part less than 10—inches.
The tracts more specially liable to severe famines are those where the average rainfall ranges between 15 and 60 inches. In the driest tracts, such cultivation as exists is carried on chiefly by means of irrigation from large perennial rivers, as in the Indus valley, or from deep wells; and these sources, though variable in yield, seldom fail completely. Moreover, the population is sparse, and in bad seasons is accustomed to obtain relief by resorting to extensive temporary emigration. On the other hand, where the normal rainfall exceeds 60 inches, the failure of the rains is seldom, if ever, so great as to give rise to general starvation; although, in the more thickly populated provinces, severe suffering, and increased mortality, is felt in bad years by the poorer classes, who live from hand to month, and in good years continue to propagate up to the limits of attainable existence. But those parts of the intermediate region in which the normal rainfall varies from 20 to 40 inches include some of the densest populations of India, and these are the seats of the most disastrous famines. The North-Western provinces, Rajputana and Berar, Orissa, the Northern Circars,
Khandesh, Hyderabad and Mysore, and the Carnatic,—all too familiar names in the famine literature of the present century,—are wholly or in great part included in the zone of intermediate rainfall; and it is when these are disastrously affected that the population of the neighbouring still drier tracts suffer with equal severity.
The normal distribution of the rainfall in the different months of the year is shown in the following condensed table, which gives the averages of the different parts of India as obtained from 289 stations. The sub-divisions adopted and shown on the accompanying map are physical rather than administrative; but the form of the table allows of each division being readily referred to its place in an administrative classification. The detailed returns which have furnished the basis of the table are given in the Appendix to this Report.
page 10 TABLE I. TABLE OF AVERAGE MONTHLY AND ANNUAL RAINFALL IN DIFFERENT PARTS OF INDIA. (Table deleted)
page 11
Variation of the rainfall. It may be doubted whether in any single year the rainfall is ever very deficient or excessive over the whole of India. In 1876 an unusually large area was indeed affected by the drought. In the greater part of the Bombay and Madras Presidencies the rainfall was very deficient throughout the year; and in the North-Western Provinces and Assam the fall was below the average; but the Punjab, Bengal, and some part of the Central Provinces had a fair average fall, in some places indeed more than the average; and such was also the case in the normally drier northern districts of the Bombay presidency. The subject of the variation of the rainfall in different parts of India is now under investigation, and I am not prepared at present to enter on any exhaustive discussion of the facts. But the table following, which gives a summary of the registers for the Carnatic, the Deccan, the west coast of India and Ceylon, the Punjab, and the North Western Provinces (exclusive of Oudh), will serve to illustrate the fact enunciated above.
TABLE II. MEAN LOCAL VARIATION OF RAINFALL IN PAST YEAR. (Table deleted)
Some features of importance which this table illustrates may be here noticed. On the west coast the
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extreme difference of the wettest and driest years is 53 per cent above and 18 per cent, below the average of nearly 100 inches; in the Carnatic, with an average of one-third this amount, the extremes are 42 per cent, above and 36 per cent, below it; in the Punjab, with an average of less than 22 inches, 37 per cent, above and 28 per cent, below it; and on the Deccan and Mysore plateau, with an average of 30 inches, 57 per cent, above and 44 per cent, below it. Bengal, with its average of 6 ½ inches, has a range of 19 per cent, above and 32 per cent below it. No definite law of periodical increase or decrease is distinctly traceable in the table. In the Carnatic, indeed, were the two last years omitted, we should seem to have a confirmation of Mr. Pogson’s speculation (well known through Dr. Hunter’s pamphlet on the subject) viz., that the rainfall increases and decreases in an eleven year cycle, coinciding with Wolf’s cycle of sun-spot variation. Thus we have a series of six years, from 1863 to 1868, below the average, with a minimum of 1867; followed by a series of six years above the average, with a maximum in 1872; and again two years below the average, with a minimum in 1876—which agree fairly well with the sun-spot cycle, having a minimum in 1867 and a maximum in 1870-71. But the last two years, 1877 and 1878, during which the sun-spot variation was still at a minimum, have brought the Carnatic a rainfall of respectively 26* and 6 per cent above the average, and thus throw doubt on the genuine character of the supposed rainfall cycle, and at least show that much more evidence must be collected before we can form a legitimate judgment on the question. The North-Western Provinces present somewhing similar. Thus we have first three years in succession, 1864 to 1866, below the average; the first year being a minimum. Then follow two years, one of which has 39 per cent in excess, and the next 35 per cent deficiency; but passing over these we have not less than seven successive years of rainfall above the average, with two maxima viz., 1871 and 1874, and finally three years below it, with a minimum in 1877. Now, 1868 followed a year of minimum sun-spots; 1871 one of maximum; and
1877 is one of a series of minimum years from which we have not yet emerged. But 1867 is quite anomalous, and so is 1874; so that here, again, the real existence of a cycle is doubtful.
Again, there are certain cases in which unusually wet years are followed by unusually dry years, or vice versa, and others again in which an excessive rainfall in one or more provinces is coincident with a very
page 12 deficient rainfall in others; but in both cases more exceptions are to be found than instances for the rule. Restricting our instances to those in which the rainfall is more than 20 per cent. In excess or defect of the average we have two instances, and two only, of good and bad years in immediate succession in the same province, and three in which two consecutive years have been of the same character. And again we find three years in which an excessive rainfall in one or more provinces has coincided with a very deficient fall in others, and nine in which all excessive departures from the average in the provinces considered have been in the same direction. This part of the investigation, however, evidently requires more complete data, and it must be deferred till the remaining portion of India and the Burmese Peninsula can also be considered.
The years in which a great deficiency of rainfall has been accompanied by severe famine are indicated in the table by the letter F, and those in which there has been scarcity, leading to much suffering, but not to widespread mortality, are designated by S. From this it would appear that in the Carnatic a deficiency, amounting to one-third of the average rainfall, has in two years been productive of severe famine. But in the North-Western Provinces a still greater deficiency, viz., 41 per cent., arising from the almost complete failure of the summer monsoon rains in 1877, although attended with much suffering, especially among the poorer classes, was not followed by the appalling consequences of the Madras and Bombay drought, owing to the fact that one season’s crop only was lost, and a heavy fall of timely rain, which fell quite at the close of the season, enabled the cultivators to sow their winter crops.
*This was not a merely apparent departure from the real course of variation, as I see-stated in a recent newspaper notice which professes to be based on Mr. Pogson’s authority. It was not due merely to the excessive rain accompanying a cyclone, as stated by the writer referred to, but chiefly to an unusually copious autumn monsoon. In the southern districts of the Presidency more especially. The error of the writer seems to have arisen from his having drawn general conclusions from the rainfall of one station only, viz., Madras.
It appears from a recent investigation of Mr. Hill’s, the meteorological reporter to the Government of the North-Western Provinces, that a variation of this character, viz., the sequence of a copious winter rainfall on a scanty summer fall, and vice versa, is of not infrequent occurrence in the Punjab and Gangetic
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Provinces. Thus he finds that the twelve years 1845, 1850 to 1853, 1859, 1865 and 1866, 1868 and 1869, 1877 and 1878, had an excessive winter and deficient summer rainfall; and , on the other hand, that the thirteen years 1846 and 1847, 1854, 1856, 1858, 1861 to 1863, 1867, 1871 to 1875, had dry winters, followed by wet summer. Against these twenty-five instances in favour of the rule we have only three years, viz., 1855, 1870 and 1872, with the rainfall excessive at both seasons; and six years, 1848 and 1849, 1857, 1860, 1864, and 1876 with a deficiency both in summer and winter. ‘The very large proportion of instances favourable to the rule seems to indicate the probability of a casual interdependence of the phenomena; and I have elsewhere suggested such in the case of a deficient summer rainfall following on a copious winter precipitation, viz., the possible effect of an unusual accumulation of snow on the Himalaya in the winter and spring months, which, by cooling the air on the mountain-slopes, produces an increased atmospheric pressure, and a conseuquent flow of cold dry air to the plains of India, impeding and opposing the access of the summer monsoon. The register of atmospheric pressure and wind direction during the years 1876 and 1877 lend support to this view; but further evidence is required before it can be accepted as more than a tentative hypothesis. Mr. Hill further considers it probable that both the summer and winter rainfall vary in an eleven-year cycle, corresponding with that of the sun-spots, but in opposite directions. Indeed, his tabulated data indicate that, while two years of excessive summer fall follow the year of maximum sun-spots by one and three years respectively, and two years of very deficient summer rains occur respectively two years before and coinciding with the year of sun-spot minimum, the heaviest winter fall precedes the year of sun-spot minimum, and the lightest coincides with the epoch of sun-spot maximum. There are, however, many anomalous oscillations, and the existing data are far from sufficient to allow of our estimating the numerical probability of a failure of either winter or summer rainfall in any given year. As a subject for further enquiry, the speculation is, however, of much interest, and may perhaps hereafter become of practical importance. INFLUENCE OF FORESTS ON RAINFALL. Trhe disastrous effects of a general destruction of forests on agriculture and pastorage are generally known, and have been abundantly illustrated during the present century in south-eastern France; but it is still a question
whether the total rainfall of a country is thereby diminished. Director observation on the rainfall of forest-clad countries, large areas of which have subsequently been denuded, are unfortunately wanting; and it is perhaps open to question whether comparative rainfall measurements made in the forest and clearings of temperate countries which are still in large part covered with forest, and the clearings of which are either pasture-land or under field cultivation, afford a criterion of the probable effects of a general denudation of forests in topical and sub-tropical lands. A very elaborate series of comparative observation of the above kind carried on for five years at eight pairs of stations in the forests and clearings of Bavaria by Dr. Ebermeyer, have led him to the conclusion that “in plains of uniform character the influence of forests on the quantity of rainfall is certainly very small. With increased elevation above the sea-level, the influence of forests becomes more important, and it has therefore a greater value in mountain tracts than on plains. In summer the effect of the forests is much greater than in winter. In the cold season it is evanescent. In warm southern countries it is greater than in cold countries; and in the interior of continents, where the humidity of the air and the annual precipitation are diminished, and the summer heat is greater, it plays a more important part than in the neighbourhood of coasts. * * * From what has been said above, the clearing of a large area of country, at least of plain country, produces no essential diminution of the yearly rainfall. In hill-tracts, on the contrary, after denudation there will be, on the whole, less rain than before. In all cases the destruction of forests will affect the rainfall only in the warm season, viz., during the summer months.”
From the above it may be inferred that, in a country such as India, the consequences of a general destruction of forests would be more important than in Europe, since the climate of India is essentially continental, and over a large part of its area the temperature, even of the cool season, is not very far short of the average summer temperature of the countries of which Dr. Ebermeyer writes. But, as already remarked, any direct evidence is wanting. The only point in this connection on which I have been able to obtain information—and this only as the general impression of old residents—is that quoted in my Meteorological Report for 1875, viz., that during the last twenty years dust-storms have become far less frequent than formerly in the Punjab; and this is attributed to the increase of plantation and the extension of cultivation under British rule. This is by no means an
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improbable consequence of cultivation; for dust-storms depend on the air in contact with the ground acquiring an excessive temperature, and the conseuqne disturbance of the vertical equilibrium of the atmosphere. Judging from the known effects of forests upon climate, more especially on the temperature and humidity of the ground and lower strata of the air in contact with the ground, I should anticipate that the effect of extensive denudation would be to render storms more violent and spasmodic in character, and perhaps to diminish the frequency of gentle and continued rainfall.
But however this may be, there can be no question of their influence in storing the subsoil waters. On this point Dr. Ebermeyer’s observations are very decisive” “On the whole, the soil of forest-clad tracts, where covered with forest litter, yielded down to a depth of four feet 1,245 cubit Paris inches more water per 3 cubic feet than the soil of the open field. In forest ground cleared from litter there penetrated to 1 foot deep nearly twice as much water as on a bare flat in the open, in litter-covered ground at 1 foot deep 2 ½ times more, at 2 feet deep 3½
times more, and at 4 feet deep 2¾ times more, and at 4 feet deep 2 ¾ times more.” This was the mean result. But
deep the difference was almost wholly due to the summer months, and would therefore be at a maximum in a climate such as India. To this conclusion Dr. Ebermeyer emphatically points. He says that “the influence of forest and forest-litter on the water storage of a region is by far the most important at the warmest time of the year and in hot countries: by the action of the forest an uniform distribution of the ground moisture is ensured throughout the year.”
H.F. BLANFORD Meteorological Reporter
to the Govt. of India Calcuta: 26th March 1879
page 13 – page 19 TABULAR STATEMENT OF THE AVERAGE MONTHLY AND ANNUAL RAINFALL AT 289 STATIONS IN INDIA AND HER DEPENDENCIES.
page 20
THE CYCLE OF SUN-SPOTS AND OF RAINFALL IN SOUTHERN INDIA. By J.NORMAN LOCKYER, F.R.S., Corresponding Member of the Institute of France, Author of “Contributions to Solar Physics”, &c.; W.W.HUNTER, LL.D., C.I.E., Director-General of Statistics to the Government of India, One of the Council of the Royal Asiatic Society, Honorary Member of the Royal Institute of Netherlands India at the Iiague, &c.; and E.D.ARCHIBALD, B.A., F.M.S., Professor of Mathematics in the Patna College. The substance of this pamphlet appeared as an article in the Nineteenth Century in 1877. Subsequent investigations have strengthened the position then taken up, and the authors think that the time has come to bring together the results. They believe that the facts constitute an important piece of evidence, which should be placed before the Famine Commissioners now at work in India; and they desire that that evidence should be submitted, in a collected form, to the judgment of men of science. The original purpose of the paper, as a magazine article, will explain the popular style adopted in the introductory pages.
The late Madras famine gives emphasis to a series of researches made by isolated observers during the last twenty years. The common result to which these researches point, is a more direct connection between solar activity and the atmospheric conditions of the earth than was previously suspected. This conclusion has been arrived at independently of a priori considerations. Indeed, one of the most remarkable features of the gradual building up of the connection has been the aversion on the part of each investigator to draw general inferences from the special result at which he had arrived.
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We propose in the following pages to examine the common direction to which these isolated observations point, and to inquire how far the common result is in accord with the conclusions which might have been anticipated a priori from recent solar work.
Exactly a century ago scientific men were discussing the startling announcements made by De la Lande concerning the constitution of the sun. Dr. Wilson of Glasgow had discovered, as he thought, that the solar spots, which for upwards of two centuries had proved a stumbling-block for astronomers, were simply great yawning chasms in the outer atmosphere of that luminary. De la Lande had fallen upon this conclusion with his accustomed vigour, and declared that they were nothing but the higher and more irreducible parts—the mountains, in fact—of a solid sun exposed from time to time by the cbb and flow of a sea, liquid, fiery, and so transparent, that round the bases of these solar hills the shallower portions of the molten ocean might be detected.
This announcement gave a tone to subsequent work. To Sir William Herschel, who outstripped even De la Lande in imaginative power, the spots were parts of a cool, habitable globle. We are told of mountainous countries with peaks six hundred miles high, and the outer shining envelope, according to him, was so constituted that while it gave light and heat to all the members of the solar family, its brilliance was tempered in such a manner to the inhabitants of the cool, solid sun beneath as to render life possible.
The science of the nineteenth century has swept away these beautiful dreams. In such inquiries the telescope has given place to the spectroscope, and no fact is now more certain than that the sun is a huge incandescent globe, the very coolest visible portion of which is glowing with a heat which transcends all our earthly fires.
The sun has been called a furnance, but this word must be used with a qualification. The heat of the sun is due, not to combustion as in our ordinary fires, but to the vivid incandescence of each particle brought about by the original contraction of the vaporous globe, or by causes even more remote and unknown. But this we know, that the energies at work on the sun are not always constant. At times, there are spots on its surface of such enormous magnitude that they are visible to the naked eye; at others, it is apparently as spotless as the most eager of Galileo’s adversaries, who had the dictum of Aristotle to defend, could have desired. At times, again, glowing vapours rush up from its bowels with such persistence that the careful
observer he looks for them. At other times they are invisible for months together.
Strango forms are also seen, exquisite in colour, fantastic beyond description in outline, and of stupendous magnitude. These are the solar prominences or red flames, the existence of which was formerly revealed to us in eclipses only. Like the spots, and like the eruptions, they wax and wane. At one time a dozen may be visible round the edge of the sun, some of them a hundred thousand miles high; at other times there is scarcely the most feeble indication of this form of solar activity. The sun, then, may not only be likened to a furnace the heat of which is beyond expression, but it may be likened to a furnace the intensity of which is apparently variable.
The next point is that the apparent variation in activity is not irregular and therefore unpredictable, but that it is regular and predictable, at all events within certain limits. The variation is in fact periodic, and the solar phenomena to which we have referred vary together; that is, when we have the greatest number of uprushes of heated matter from below, we have the greatest number of spots and the greatest number of prominences.
All these phenomena ebb and flow once in about eleven years. So that every eleven years we have the greatest activity in the production of uprushes, spots, and promiences; and between the periods of maximum we have a period of minimum, when such manifestations are almost entirely wanting. In fact, the spots may be taken as a rough index of solar energy, just as the rainfall may be taken as a convenient indication of terrestrial climate. They are an index, but not a measure, of solar activity; and their absence indicates a reduction, not the cessation, of the sun’s energy. Whether this reduction means one in a hundred or one in a thousand we do not know.
If we now pass from the sun, the great reservoir of energy in our planetary system, to our planetary system, to our own earth, we find a very different order of things. The incandescence of our planet is a thing of the past; and the loss by radiation of its internal heat is now so small and varies so slightly in a long period of time, that as compared with a period of a eleven years we may regard this heat as a constant quantity.
It was, per haps, scarcely necessary thus to clear the ground for the general statement, now an accepted fact of science, that with the exception of tide work, all our terrestrial energies come from the sun. In the great modern principle of the conservation of energy we have not only proof that the actual energy stored up in our planet is constant, but that the solar energy is the great
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prime mover of all the changeable phenomena with which we are here familiar, especially in the inorganic world.
That energy gives us our meteorology by falling at different times on different points of the aerial and aqueous envelopes of our planet, thereby producing ocean and air currents, while, by acting upon the various forms of water which exist in those envelopes, it is the fruitful parent of rain, and, cloud, and mist. Nor does it stop here. It affects in a more mysterious way the electricity in the atmosphere, and the magnetism of the globe itself.
If the energy radiated from the sun were constant, we should expect that the terrestrial conditions which depend on the amount of solar energy received at any one place would be constant too. The daily change due to the earth’s rotation, the yearly change brought about by the earth’s revolution, would be there; but there change would stop. The fire, as well as the air, earth, and water, would be constant quantities. But suppose the fire to be variable,—in other words, suppose the solar energy to change in amount from year to year. To the daily and annual changes of our terrestrial phenomena would then be added another change—a change absolutely irregular and unpredictable if the variation in the amount of the solar energy were subject to no law; but a change as regular as the daily and the yearly one, if the variation in the amount of the solar energy were subject to a law. The period of the additional terrestrial change would agree with the period of the solar change, whatever that might be; and to the daily and yearly response of the earth to the solar energy, there
page 21 would be superadded an additional change, depending upon and coincident in the main with the period of the solar change. We have said coincident in the main, because it is easy to imagine in the case of meteorological phenomena dependent upon a long train of intermediate influences between the impact of the solar energy and the final result, that time would be taken for their development. In this case, although the dependence would be there, an exact coincidence would not. There would be a lagging behind, and this lagging behind would possibly not be the same at different latitudes.
We come now to the facts, accepting sun-spot frequency as the index of solar activity. Without dwelling upon previous work, the actual enumeration of sun-spots was undertaken in 1826 by Hofrath Schwabe of Dessau, and patiently carried out by means of a daily scrutiny of the sun’s surface. His eye-observations have been
improved upon by accurate measurements of the solar spotted area by the late Mr. R.C. Carrington, at Redhill, and by the solar work at the Kew Observatory, conducted by Dr. W. De la Rue and Professor Balfour Stewart. Similar observations are in progress, and photographs of the sun-spots are being taken in India, France, Germany, Russia, Italy, and at Greenwich. Dr. Rudolf Wolf has reduced the materials thus obtained to a uniform standard, and published a list of the relative number of sun-spots for each year since 1750; the data for the earlier years being, however, of less value than for the later period, during which daily delineations of the sun’s surface have been going on. Dr. Wolfs list exhibits eleven complete cycles of sun-spots, from 1750 to 1870, giving an average of, as nearly as possible, eleven years to each cycle. The individual cycles vary within certain limits, but the largest variations appear in the last century and early in the present one, before the commencement of Hofrath Schwabe’s continuous observations in 1826.
Are these cycles of solar activity coincident with any well-marked cycles in the atmospheric or other conditions of the earth? The inquiries into such a coincidence have been directed to five classes of terrestrial phenomena; They are – first, periodical variations in terrestrial magnetism and electrical activity; second, periodical variations in temperature; third, the periodicity of wind disturbances, hurricanes, and cyclones, fourth, periodicity in the ralative amount of cloud; and fifth, periodicity in rainfall. It is with the last class of phenomena that we have specially to deal in this pamphlet. But it may be well to summarize the results arrived at with respect to the first four.
First, then, with regard to terrestrial magnetism and electrical activity. A freely suspended magnet, although it points in one direction, is nevertheless, within small limits, always in motion. Certain of these motions depend, as is well known, upon the hour of the day; but the magnet is also liable to irregular, abrupt fluctuations, which cannot be connected with the diurnal oscillations. While Hofrath Schwabe was engaged in delineating the sun-spots, Sir Edward Sabine was conducting a series of observations with regard to these spasmodic affections of the needle. He found that such fluctuations are most frequent in years of high sun-spot activity. Van Swinden had suggested, but only suggested, a periodicity in the irregular movements, as far back as 1785. Gauss had made further discoveries between 1834 and 1837. Arago’s observations from 1820 to 1830 were reduced and published in 1854, in such a form as to prove that a
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minimum period of magnetic variations had occurred in 1823-24, a year of minimum sun-spots; and that a maximum period of such variations had occurred in 1829, a year of maximum sun-spots. In 1851 Dr. Lamont, of Munich, published his long-continued researches, indicating the existence of a cycle in magnetic variations, occupying on an average ten and a third years. Sir Edward Sabine, in 1852, carried forward the work by a paper in the Transactions of the Royal Society. He subsequently communicated the results of a series of records, between 1859 and 1864, of the horizontal and vertical force magnetometers at the Kew Observatory, with a note showing their connection with the sun-spots and giving interesting historical details. He observed, too, that the fluctuations of the magnet were almost invariably accompanied by displays of the Aurora Botealis, and came to the conclusion that auroral displays occur most frequently in years of maximum sun-spots. Dr. Wolf, now of Zurich, and M. Gautier of Geneva, had independently remarked, in 1852, the coincidence of Lamont’s decennial magnetic period with Schwabe’s period of sun-spots. In 1865 Professor Loomis, of Yale College, supplied further evidence on the range of magnetic declination and auroras, in their relation to sun-spots. He concluded that the auroras observed in Europe and America exhibit a true periodicity, closely following the magnetic periods, but not perfectly identical with them. He believed that a sun-spot is the result of a disturbance of the sun’s surface, with some emanation from the sun which is felt almost instantly upon the earth. Signor Schiaparelli, in 1875, brought out with great clearness the relations between the sub-spot periods and the variations in the declination of the magnetic needle. In the same year also, Sophus Tromholdt contributed to the Zeitschrift der Gesellschaft fur Meteorologie a note on the connection of auroras with the sun-spot periods. In 1876 Dr. J.A. Broun presented the results derived from observations of magnetic declination made during nearly a quarter of a century at Trevandrum. He gave the mean duration of the magnetic cycle at 10-45 years, supplied a very valuable chart showing the decennial period of the diurnal range of magnetic declination and sun-spot area from 1784 to 1876. The curves of this elaborate and most interesting chart place the general coincidence of the magnetic and sun-spot cycles in a clear light. Dr. Broun came to the conclusion that while the sun-spot activity is not an exact measure of magnetic action. “each is a distinct result due to the same cause.” The whole question was, in 1877, reviewed by Professor Balfour Stewart, a distinguished worker in the
same field. He exhibited the solar spots, magnetic declination, and auroral displays, from 1776 to 1872, in curves which followed each other with an indisputable coincidence. He further examined the connection of these three coincident cycles with planetary configurations – a question discussed by Mr. Fritz in the Proceedings of the Royal Society in 1871, and previously studied with much care by Dr De la Rue and Professor Balfour Stewart at Kew (1854-66). More recently still Professor Stewart has compared together the variations in magnetic declination at Kew, Trevandrum, and Prague, with the sun-spots. The results not only show an intimate relation between the two phenomena, but exhibit many other points of remarkable significance and value (see Proc. Roy. Soc., 1878, Nos. 185, 187). To sum up; magnetic observers now hold that not only do the spasmodical affections of the needle follow curves closely coincident with the solar spots, “but its diural oscillations are not less dependent on the state of the sun’s surface.”
Such magnetic disturbances have very practical results. Telegraphy and telegraphic lines form one of the most conspicuous of the new commercial undertakings of our day. During period of maximum magnetic disturbance, telegraphic communication between points so close as London and Dover is sometimes interrupted. Mr. Charles V. Walker, superintendent of telegraphs, presented an important paper in 1861 to the Royal Society, on magnetic storms and earth-currents. He described the remarkable disturbances in communication which took place in 1848, a year of maximum sun-spots, and in the autumn of 1859, just before the next year of maximum sun-spots (1860). The first period of disturbance appeared to his staff to be an altogether “abnormal” one. “We did not then know,” writes Mr. Walker, “as we now do, that these disturbances have a cycle of about eleven years from the maximum period of activity to the next maximum.” An idea of the violence of such magnetic storms may be derived from the Dover clerk’s entry on September 2, 1859:—- “This morning, on opening the office, I found the needless of both instruments firmly blocked over to the left, and although the handles were firmly held over to the right to counteract the power, to my surprise I found that our battery power had not the slightest effect. . . . I am sorry to say there is not the slightest possibility of our working the instrument, needles continuing firmly fixed over, and this has continued for upwards of half an hour.” This disturbance was of such magnitude and of so long duration, that the operators were unable to supply an
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adequate narrative of it, as “they were at their wits’ end to clear off the telegrams which accumulated in their hands, by other less affected but less direct routes.” Mr. Walker has retained no record of the earth-currents during the last period of maximum sun-spots (1870), but the disturbances on the lines were not of so marked a character. He holds as an established fact that “earth-currents, disturbed magnetometers, and aurums are parts of the same phenomenon;” and in a recent letter to one of the writers of this article, he reaffirms his conviction regarding the relationship between earth-currents, telegraphic disturbances, and sun-spots.
page 22 The second class of phenomena in which a
periodicity coinciding with the sun-spot cycle is believed to have been discovered, has reference to solar radiation and thermometric variations. For reasons which would require too much space to detail, various difficulties complicate this line of research, and we should state at the outset, that the evidence is less complete and satisfactory than that which connects magnetic disturbances and rainfall with sun-spots. A moment’s consideration will show the kind of complication to which we refer. If the earth had no atmosphere, all the solar energy would be incident and operative on the earth’s surface, where perforce our measuring instruments are placed. But the earth has an atmosphere which is the vast scene of the play of the solar energies; and the work done there is of such a nature that the more energy there is in operation, the more effectively is the direct energy of the sun screened from the surface. Further, there is not wanting evidence to show that the vapour of water, like the vapours of the metals, exists in various molecular conditions, some of which are transparent and others opaque to those rays which affect our thermometers.* The thermometric inquiry divides itself into several distinct branches, such as the direct solar radiation or calorific intensity of the sun’s light, the daily temperature range, and the mean annual temperature. We shall very briefly state the conclusions at which observers have arrived during the last ten years, without criticism or any expression of opinion.
In 1867 Mr. Joseph Baxendell communicated the results of a scrutiny of the Solar Radiation Registers kept
at the Radecliffe Observatory, Oxford, from 1856 to 1864. He came to the following conclusions, among others. First, that the calorific intensity of the sun’s light is subject to periodical changes, the maxima and minima of which correspond respectively with those of sun-spot frequency. Second, that it seems probable that the heating rays of the sun consist of two kinds, differing in intensity, and subject to periodical changes; the times of maxima of one kind and those of minima of the other corresponding respectively to the times of maximum frequency of solar spots. Mr. Baxendell also pointed out a connection between the mean monthly variation of solar radiation on cloudless days and the mean monthly daily range of the magnetometer. In 1871 he published his further researches on the changes in the distribution of barometric pressure, temperature, and rainfall, under different winds during a period of solar-spot frequency. He found that changes had taken place in the three elements under discussion, which corresponded very closely in the times of their maxima and minima with those of sun-spot frequency. In 1875 Mr. H.F. Blanford, Meteorological Reporter at Calcutta, stated, from experiments conducted in Bengal: “The result is to me very striking, and if not absolutely conclusive as to the direct variation of the sun’s heat with the number of spots and prominences, certainly, as far as it goes strongly confirms Mr. Baxendell’s conclusions.”
In 1877 Mr. S.A. Hill, the Meteorological Reporter to the Government of the N.W. provinces of India, commenced a comparison of the solar radiation temperatures recorded at several stations in Upper India. The results he obtained were exactly the opposite of those got by his predecessors in this branch of investigation; the highest sun temperatures occurring in years of fewest spots, and the lowest in those of most spots. Mr. Hill thinks the difference in the results he obtains from those got by Mr. Blanford, is, to a great extent, owing to the different methods they employ in discussing their respective observations.
In all probability a uniform method of discussing observations would lead to more uniform results. The question, however, of the sun’s variable radiation of heat will probably be best answered by the actinometer, a modification of which, recently invented by Professor Balfour Stewart, is, we understand, about to be employed in India.
In 1875 Professors Balfour Stewart and Roscoe, from an investigation of the heating effects of the sun, came to the conclusion that there is more sunshine at
* There is evidence to suggest that the squeous vapour produced at the period of minimum sun-spots would be more transparent to the heat-rays than that produced at other times.
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London in years of maximum than in years of minimum solar disturbance. Next year, 1876, Professor Balfour Stewart found that the winter temperature-range at Kew apparently depends on the sun-spot period, being greatest at times of maximum sun-spots and least at time of minimum sun-spots. In 1877 he raised, and produced evidence upon, the interesting question whether the mean daily range does not depend, among other influences, on the state of the sun’s surface with regard to spots.
Meanwhile, another series of observations had been going on, not with black bulb thermometers for solar radiation, but with reference to the mean annual temperature. In 1870 professor Piazzi Smyth, the Astronomer-Royal for Scotland, published the result of observations made from 1837 to 1869, with thermometers sunk in the rock at the Royal Observatory, Edinburgh. He came to the conclusion that a great heat wave occurs every eleven years and a fraction, its maximum slightly lagging behind the minimum of the sun-spot cycle. Next year, 1871, Mr. E.J. Stone, the Astronomer-Royal at the Cape of Good Hope, examined the temperature observations recorded during thirty years at the Cape under his predecessor, Sir T. Maclear. He stated that the temperature and sun-spot curves presented an agreement so close as to compel him to believe that the same cause which leads to an access of mean annual temperature leads equally to a dissipation of solar spots. Here also we find the maximum heat slightly lagging behind the minimum spots. Dr. W. Koppen’s papers in the Zeitschrift der osterreichischen Gesellschaft fur Meteorologie for August and September 1873, form a most important contribution upon the question. He endeavoured, with an elaboration and completeness not previously attempted, to present the earth’s temperature in connection with sun-spots for the hundred years preceeding 1870. He divided the thermometric returns into two great classes – those taken within the tropics, and those belonging to the extra-tropical zones. The barest summary of his researches would occupy several pages. In a carefully prepared chart, he exhibited the temperature and sun-spot curves from 1768. During the earlier part of this period, he had thermometric returns only from the northern temperate zone. So far the curves do not show a coincidence; whether from the local character of the temperature returns, or from the uncertain value of the sun-spot curve, we need not here inquire. After the year 1826, when the sun-spot data become more trustworthy, the case is entirely different. The curves follow each other in a most
striking manner; and, indeed, he states that from 1816 to 1854 the coincidence of temperature changes with the sun-spots does not merely extend over the average length of the cycles, but reflects all the leading disturbances and peculiarities of the sun-spot periods. Dr. Koppen further points out that as the period of increase from the minimum to the maximum year in the sun-spot cycle is almost always shorter than the period of decrease from the maximum to the minimum, so, on the whole, is that feature reflected in the temperature changes. The parallelism in this series of returns, he says with reference to his table dealing with the period from 1820 to 1854, is so great, that there can be no question of accidental coincidence of variations independent of each other. On the other hand, his figures disclose many anomalies. Thus, in the tropics, the maximum of warmth occurs a full year before the year of minimum sun-spots; while in the zones beyond the tropics it falls two years after the minimum. The regularity and magnitude of the undulation of the temperature curve is most strongly marked in the tropics, and decreases towards the poles.
Since Dr. Koppen’s article appeared, the question of the variation of air temperature with the sun-spots has been revived by Dr. F.G. Hahn, of Leipzig, in a work which, up to the present time, forms the most extensive and valuable contribution to the general question as yet made.* In this work he goes a step beyond Koppen, and compares the summer and winter temperatures over large tracts of Europe and America, separately with the sun-spot epochs. His results, from observations which embrace the period 1709-1875, not only confirm those of Koppen regarding the mean annual temperature, but show that both summer and winter at the time of minimum sun-spot are decidedly warmer than at the opposite epoch.
With regard to the third class of phenomena, wind disturbances, the evidence, although less abundant, is more uniform. The frequency of such disturbances at times of maxima sun-spots has been observed independently by two meteorologists on the opposite sides of the globe. In both cases their observations were made in the tropics, where wind disturbances have so violent and so well-marked a character us to admit of more easy
Y24
* Ueber due Beziehungen der Somnen Flecken- periode zuMeteorologischen Erscheinungen, Vou Dr. F.G.Ifahn,Leipzig, 1877.
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page 23 enumeration than in the extra-tropical zones. To our countryman, Dr. Meldrum, Government astronomer at Mauritius, belongs the honour of originating, with the chief credit of prosecuting, this research. By a series of careful observations he had, more than five years ago, established the existence of a coincidence between the frequency of cyclones and sun-spots. In 1872 one of the writers of this article thus summarized the results: “Mr. Meldrum tells us that the whole question of cyclones is a question of solar activity, and that if we write down in one column the number of cyclones in any given year, there will be a strict relation between them – many sun-spots, many hurricanes; few sun-spots, few hurricanes. Mr. Meldrum points out that in those years in which we have been quietly mapping out the sun-spot maxima, the harbours were filled with wrecks and vessels coming in disabled from every part of the great Indian Ocean.” Next Year, 1873, M. Poey, who had conducted a similar research into the hurricanes of the West Indies, communicated his results to the Academie des Sciences at Paris. He enumerated 357 hurricanes between 1750 and 1873, and stated that out of 12 maxima, 10 agreed. A careful re-examination of his materials discloses striking coincidences, but at the same time we ought to add, very serious discrepancies. The discrepancies, however, chiefly belong to the last century and the earlier part of the present one. Since the commencement of Schwabe’s continuous sun-spot observations in 1826, the common periodicity is more strongly marked, as Table III. On p.26 will show. A comparison by Dr. Hahn, in 1877, of the number of typhoons in the China seas, a list of which had been made by Mr. Piddington, covering the period 1780-1841, led to similar results.
During the summer of 1877, an effort was made to ascertain whether the periodicity thus observed in the wind disturbances of the tropics produces any well marked results upon the shipping of the world. Mr. Henry Jeula, secretary to the late Statistical Committee of Lloyd’s, obtained the returns of marine casualties posted at Lloyd’s Loss-book from 1855 to 1876. Conjointly with Dr. W.W. Hunter, one of the writers of this pamphlet, he worked out the information thus derived with regard to the two periods of eleven years from 1855 to 1876. It was found that the marine casualties disclosed a cycle closely corresponding with the sun-spot period. The percentage of casualties on the registered vessels of the United Kingdom was seventeen and a half percent greater during the maximum two years in the common cycle than during
the minimum two years. The percentage of losses on the total posted on Lloyd’s Loss-book during the eleven years was fifteen per cent greater during the two maximum years of the common cycle than during the two minimum ones. This cycle of marine casualties coincides with that of the tropical rainfall, and it will be exhibited side by side with the tabulated periods of the rainfall at Madras. It should be remembered, however, that the two periods of eleven years for which the returns of marine casualties are available, form a very narrow basis for a statistical induction.
Evidence with respect to the fourth class of atmospheric phenomena to which we intend to refer, viz., clouds, though as yet somewhat limited, and, from the complicated conditions which give rise to their formation, of small inductive value, is yet of considerable interest and importance from its intimate bearing upon that afforded on the collateral subject of rainfall.
To ensure greater clearness, well will divide the results into two sections, - first, those that deal with general cloud or cloudiness; and secondly, those that relate to the frequently with which some particular form or variety of cloud has been observed to occur.
With regard to general cloudiness in relation to the frequency of sun-spots, it was observed some years ago by Schwabe, the discoverer of their periodical recurreuce after his patient watch of twenty years, that sun-spots seemed more frequently associated with cloudy than with fine weather. In opposition to him, Dr. H. J. Klein, the well-know meteorologist, considered that in years of few sun-spots the sky was more often observed to be cloudy than in those of many sun-spots. Since then, Dr. Hahn has compared the relative cludiness in different years at Leipzig and Munster, with results which confirm the opinion held by Schwabe, viz., that years of many spots are also those of much cloud, but with this restriction, that the relation only holds in the summer months. This restriction is a very necessary point, as the winfer cloudiness at Leipzig follows precisely the reverse law, - the maximum of cloud occurring at the minimum epoch of the sun-spots, and vice versa.
Now this opposition in the results of the two seasons, which at first sight appears destructive of any real connection between the two phenomena, is in reality, in exact accordance with what has already been found by Dr. Hahn to hold in the case of the air-temperature at different seasons in Europe. For it is an acknowledged and readily accountable fact, that presence of cloud in the summer is associated with coolness, and in the winter
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with warmth; and in like manner that a clear sky, which in the summer, by promoting solar radiation, favours the development of great heat, in the winter, by giving free scope to terrestrial radiation (in the then comparative absence of solar radiation), tends to produce excessive cold. The fact, therefore, that clouds are more prevalent in the summers of maximum sun-spot years, and in the winters of minimum sun-spot years, is only another way of saying that both summer and winter are cooler at the former epoch, and warmer at the latter. It also warns us to expect a similar change of type in the rainfall variation, the summers of maximum sun-spot years and the winters of minimum sun-spot years being the wettest; which, indeed, has been found, though upon limited evidence at present, to be probably the case in the temperate zones.
The only particular form of cloud to which allusion will be made with reference to its apparent variation with the sun-spots, is the cirrus. This variety is important not only from its intimate connection with storms, whose approach it often signals, but also because it is (especially that form of it called “polar bands”) closely associated with, and by some believed to be one of the proximate causes of, the Aurora Polaris. Herr Weber of Peckeloh finds these polar bands, like the Aurora, most frequent in years of maximum sun-spot.
In like manner Dr. Klein, from observations made at Cologne extending from 1850-1870, has found that all kinds of cirrus cloud are most frequent at the same epoch. It is further found by Dr.Hahn, from observations made at Dresden between 1856 and 1867, that solar and lunar halos, and mock-suns (all of them optical phenomena depending for their production upon the presence of the ice-crystals composing cirrus cloud), increase and decrease with the sun-spots like the cirri themselves.
We are now come to the fifth and last branch of the inquiry. We have already seen that Mr. Joseph Baxendell, in 1871, found that changes and taken place in the rainfall as well as in the temperature and barometric pressure, which corresponded very closely in their maxima and minima periods with those of sun-spots. Dr. Meldrum, from a comparison of the rain return at Mauritius, Adelaide, and Brisbane, came to the conclusion that the evidence of a connection between its maxima and minima periods, and the corresponding sun-spot periods, although not absolute, was very striking, and demanded further inquiry. In 1872, one of the writers of this pamphlet published a paper, entitled The Meteorology of the Future, in which was developed the idea of a connection between sun-spots and rainfall, and further evidence was
produced. In 1872-3, frequent contributions appeared on the subject, but at first with conflicting results. In opposition to individual coincidences, Sir R. Rawson believed that, “assuming” that sun-spots affect all parts of the globe equally, and that periodicity prevails in all alike, the experience of Barbadoes is opposed to the theory.” Dr. Carl Jelinek of Vienna, from an examination of fourteen stations between 1833 and 1869, showed that while a coincidence held good in fifty two cases, it failed in forty-two. In 1873 the inquiry branched out into a new direction. Gustav Wex made an examination into the depths of water recorded in the Elbe, Rhine, Oder, Danube, and Vistula, for the six sun-spot periods from 1800 to 1867. He came to the result that the years in which the maximum amount of water appeared in the rivers were years of maximum sun-spots; while the minimum amount of water occurred during the years of minimum sun-spots. Mr. G.M. Dawson, geologist to the B.N.A. Boundary Commission, made a similar inquiry in America. In 1874 he stated that the correspondence between the periods of maxima and minima in the solar-spot cycles, and in the fluctuations of the great lakes, though by no means absolute, was sufficiently close to open a new field of inquiry. In the same year, Mr. J.H.Henuessey, from an examination of the rainfall at Masuri in India, arrived at a similar conclusion. In 1874, also, Dr. J.A.Broun, in an analysis of the returns from ten stations, considered it probable that a difference of about two inches in the
page 24 rainfall might be expected between the years of greatest and the years of least sun-spot area. Professor John Brocklesby, in the American Journal of Science, stated that the results of his examination pointed to a connection between variations in the sun-spot area and the annual rainfall—the rainfall rising above the mean when the sun-spot area is in excess, and falling below the mean in periods of small sun-spots.
During the past few years great accessions have been made to our knowledge of rainfall variation in its relation to the sun-spots. In particular, the necessity of comparing the rainfall at different seasons, as well as that of the whole year (with the sun-spots), has been insisted upon by one of the writers of this pamphlet, both on theoretical grounds, and also because the result of doing so in one case at least, viz. in Northern India, showed that a change of season sometimes effects a complete change of type in the variation; the summer rainfall, like the total annual
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rainfall elsewhere, varying directly with the sun-spots; while the winter rainfall north of lat. 22o invariably followed the inverse law, being greatest at the epoch of minimum sun-spots, and vice versa. Other parts of the world, such as Southern India, experience, like Northern India, two distinct seasonal rainfalls during the year, separated more or less from one another by an interval of dry weather. In Southern India, however, this phenomenon being merely due to the advance and return of the same vapour-current, no change of type in the rainfall variation is experienced, but only a quantitative difference between the effects of the vapour-current in different localities, according as it blows from the Malabar or he Coromandel coast. In Northern India the change from summer to winter ushers in an entirely new vapour-current,—the antimonsoon,—and so brings about a change of type in the variation.
Comparisons of total annual rainfall in various parts of the world by different persons still continue to confirm the relation which has hitherto been found with few exceptions to be uniformly the case, viz. the more sun-spots, the more rain.
One of the most recent as well as most extensive comparisons of total annual falls, was that made by Mr. Meldrum in 1877, in which he employed the returns from no less than 128 stations widely scattered throughout Europe and America. The general conclusion derived from these was similar to that obtained by Mr. J. Allan Broun, viz. that on the average the rainfall at all the stations in years of maximum sun-spot area exceeds that at the opposite epoch by about two inches. Since then, in August 1878, Mr. Orville A. Derby came to a similar conclusion from an examination of the rainfalls of Ceara and Rio de Janerio in Brazil, a part of the globe not included in any of the comparisons which had hitherto appeared.
At the close of 1876, it was the duty of one of the writers of this pamphlet to minutely examine the Madras rainfall in connection with the anticipated famine. It became apparent to him that inquiries which deal with the rain supply of India as a yearly unit must be essentially inadequate. Native usage and speech strongly mark the existence of two distinct factors in the annual rainfall, namely, the summer and the autumn monsoons; and the local system of agriculture is merely a practical recognition of this meteorological fact. The summer monsoon, with its stately procession of rain-clouds, marching over India in aerial battalions from the southern ocean to the Himalayas, formed a theme dear to the
Sanskrit poet. It seemed as if the continent “beloved of Indra” had only to sit still and receive in her lap the treasures which the winds gathered from distant tropical seas. Indra, the personification of the Watery Atmosphere, won his way to the supreme godhead of the Sanskrit pantheon by the all-powerful influence which he exercised, for weal or for woe, on a population of husbandmen. Himself gracious and beneficent, ever seeking to shower his treasures on the thirsty earth, he was nevertheless restrained, and from time to time prevented, by the evil spirit, Vrita. Next to Indra came Vayu, the Wind, representing in his single personality the combined Maruts or storm-gods. The same Indra and Vayu, the Watery Atmosphere and the Wind, whom the Sanskrit race adored centuries before the commencement of our era, still decide each autumn the fate of the Indian people.
The meteorological year at Madras divides itself into three parts. The first of them extends from January to the end of April, with a nominal rainfall of but half an inch per mensem. The second commences towards the end of May or early in June, and lasts till the end of September or beginning of October. It is popularly known as the south-west monsoon, and if we include in it the month of May, it supplies 17 inches of the yearly rainfall of 48; if we exclude the month of May, it yields 15 inches. In October the northerly wind sets in, and the last three months of the year derive from its influence a rainfall of close on 29 inches. In an inquiry such as the present, the first four months of the year, with their sporadic rainfall of half an inch per mensem, may be dismissed. The two over-ruling factors in the rainfall are the south-west monsoon from May to September, and the north-east monsoon from October to December. If either of these monsoons fails to bring its supply of rain, or if they both fail partially, the result is famine. Of the five Madras famines since the institution of rain gauges, three have been caused by the failure of the winter monsoon, one by the failure of the summer monsoon, and one by the partial failure of both.
The Madras rainfall, therefore, furnishes three distinctly marked elements for comparison with the cycle of sun-spots. There is first, the north-east monsoon during the last three months of the year, bringing its average rainfall of nearly 29 inches; second, the south-west monsoon from May to September, supplying over 17 inches, or 15 if we take it as commencing from June; and third, the total yearly rainfall of 48½ inches. Does sun-spot activity exercise any influence upon the supply
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which the two great water-carriers collect from the ocean tract stretching from the southern pole to India, and then shower upon that country?
As regards the principle factor, the north-east monsoon, which brings 29 inches out the whole yearly rainfall of 48½ inches, the statistics these. Of the six years of minimum sun-spots, including 1876 as one, since rain gauges were kept at Madras, the N.E. monsoon has in five had a distinctly deficient rainfall. The average rainfall of the north-east monsoon during these six years of minimum sun-spots has been only 16.94 inches, against the average of 28.90 inches which the north-eastern monsoon annually brought during the last sixty-four years. The north-east monsoon in years of minimum sun-spots brings, therefore, 41.39 per cent. Less rain than in ordinary years; or, put differently, it brings 70 percent, more rain on the average of 64 years than in the years of minimum sun-spots. Nor is this deficiency confined to the exact year of minimum sun-spots. Taking the years of minimum sun-spots together with the preceding years, the north-eastern monsoon yielded 25¾ percent less rainfall during the twelve years thus made up than its average yield during the sixty-four years for which returns exist. Or, put in other words, the average water supply brought to Madras in ordinary years by the north-eastern monsoon is 34½ percent greater than that which it brings during the years of minimum sun-spots and the years immediately preceding them.
The south-west monsoon yields little more than one-half the rainfall which the north-eastern one supplied to Madras. Its deficiency during years of low solar-spot activity is, however, well marked. If we take the south-west monsoon as commencing in June, it yielded in each of the six years of minimum sun-spots less rain than in ordinary years. Its water supply during the six years of minimum sun-spots averaged only 12.12 inches, or 20 per cent. Less than its normal rainfall of 15.13 inches in ordinary years. If we include the rainfall for May in the South-west monsoon, it yielded less than its normal average in five out of the six years of minimum sun-spots. In only one year of minimum sun-spots did the south-west monsoon (including the May rainfall) yield more than its average supply, taken over the sixty four years. It is very doubtful whether the exceptional year, 1843, was really an exception. A great rain-storm took place in May, before the monsoon had established itself, and of a character different from the regular monsoon rains. This storm poured down a sudden deluge of over 14 inches on Madras, and completely disguised the average for the
monsoon months, the ordinary rainfall in May being just two inches. Deducting this rain-storm in 1843, the southern monsoon has proved deficient at Madras, whether we take it to commence in May or June, during every year of minimum sun-spots since the returns began in 1813. This deficiency is well marked, not only in the years of minimum sun-spots, but in the years preceding and following them. Thus, even including the month of May and the exceptional rain-storm of May 1843, the southern monsoon during the six years of minimum sun-spots, and the years immediately proceeding them, yielded, during the twelve years thus made up, 20½ percent less rain than its average yield in the sixty-four
page 25 years. Or, expressed in another form, the water supply brought to Madras by the southern monsoon is 26½ percent greater in ordinary years than in the years of minimum sun-spots and those immediately preceding them.
The two monsoons are the great factors of the rain supply at Madras, and their fluctuations are distinctly marked in the third element of comparison, the total rainfall for the year. In five out of the six years of minimum sun-spots the annual rainfall fell short of the average supply, calculated over the sixty-four years. The exceptional year was 1843, and its exceptional character was due to the sporadic rain-storm in May, already mentioned. Even including that rain-storm, however, the six years of minimum sun-spots had an average rainfall of less than 34½ inches, against the ordinary annual rainfall of 48½ calculated over the sixty-four years. The minimum years of sun-spots, therefore, brought 29 percent, less rainfall than ordinary years; or, put into another form, the average annual rainfall supply at Madras is 40½ percent greater than in years of minimum sun-spots.
In each of the three elements of comparison, the deficient rainfall is not continued to the minimum year of sun-spots, but includes the preceding year as well. But it should be clearly stated that no numerical proportion exists between the actual number of sun-spots and the number of inches. There is a rain cycle of eleven years at Madras, which coincides with the cycle of sun-spots. The periods of maxima and minima in these two cycles disclose a striking coincidence. That coincidence is common to all the three elements of comparison,—namely, the rainfall of the year, of the great northern monsoon, and of the south-western monsoon. The
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following table will show this. The cycle of eleven years starts from 1876 and runs back to 1813, at which year the rain-returns commence. The eleventh, first, and second series in the cycle include all the years of minimum sun-spots since 1810, and form the minimum group of rainfall:— TABLE 1. ELEVEN YEARS’ CYCLE OF SUN-SPOTS AND RAINFALL AT MADRAS (Table deleted) The cyclic coincidence may be tested in another way. If there is a true coincidence it should disclose a well-marked minimum group at the extremities of the cycle (in the eleventh, first and second years), and a well-marked maximum group in the middle of the cycle (the fifth and following years). The years on both sides of the central maximum group should yield intermediate results, and when taken together, should form a well-marked intermediate group. Dividing the cycle, therefore, so far as the number admits, into three equal groups of four years, we get the following results:— TABLE II. ELEVEN YEARS’ CYCLE OF SUN-SPOTS AND RAINFALL AT MADRAS (Table deleted)
Has this recurring period of deficient sun-spot and rainfall any practical result on the food supply of the people?—It is well known that at the end of the last century and during the earlier years of the present one. Southern India suffered an almost perpetual distress. But for these years we have no rain register; and the desolation spread by native misrule, together with the drain of food for great armies in the field, sufficed to intensify every local scarcity to the starvation point. A march of Tippu Sultan left a worse blight on a district than a dozen inches of deficiency in the rainfall; and Mahratta raids were a more direct and frequent factor of famine than the sun-spots. We are destitute of the first conditions for a scientific study of the food
page 26 supply until we reach the period of settled British rule and rain gauges.
It would be fruitless, therefore, to extend the inquiry beyond the year 1810, the earliest year in the sun-spot cycles with which we deal. The years of famine at Madras since that date have been 1811, 1824, 1833, 1854, 1866 and 1877. These famines were caused by deficient rainfall in the preceding years, namely, in 1810, 1823, 1832,
1853, 1865 and 1876. Now, five out of these six years of drought fell within the three years’ group of minimum rainfall and sun-spots shown in the foregoing tables; the remaining drought (1853-5) extended over a year immediately preceding the minimum group and two years within that group, the famine itself resulting within the maximum group. Three of the six years of drought fell exactly in years of minimum sun-spots; one fell in the year preceding a year of minimum sun-spots; the remaining drought (1853-5) fell in the first, second and third years preceding a year of minimum sun-spots.
There have been other years of scarcity in Madras. But the above six years were selected by Sir William Robinson, sometime Acting Governor, as the years of true famine, without any acquaintance with the writer’s speculations on the rainfall, or of any cycle being supported or disproved by them. No famine in Madras has been recorded, from 1810 to 1877, caused by a drought lying entirely outside the minimum group of sun-spots and rainfall (as shown in the foregoing tables). The only drought which could be claimed as an exception, 1853-5, extended over two years within the group and the year immediately preceding them. It is shown as an exception in Table III.
The foregoing statistics refer to the single station of Madras. They are, however, of special value for testing the coincidence between sun-spot frequency and the rainfall which the north-east monsoon brings to Southern India. For that monsoon strikes the land with all its first vigour at Madras. By the time it crosses the Eastern Ghats, and finds its way to the central plateau, it has got rid of the aqueous burden which it has carried down the Bay of Bengal. To the tableland of Mysore it brings only eight inches, while at Bellari and in Haidarabad it only supplies three. But even at Mysore a deficiency of rainfall in years of minimum sun-spots is disclosed. Of four years of minimum sun-spots for which materials exist (1876-1837), not one had quite the full annual rainfall; and the average rain supply brought by the forty years was close on 16 per cent, greater in Mysore than the rainfalls in the years of minimum sun-spots.
To Bombay, the north-east monsoon brings scarcely any rain, and the returns lately published omit it, as being ‘immaterial’ in twenty out of sixty years. The south-west monsoon is at Bombay the great factor of rainfall. According to those returns, the rainfall at Bombay was more or less below the average in every one of the six years of minimum sun-spots during the sixty years. The average rain supply of the sixty years was 18 per cent,
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greater than the average rainfall in the six years of minimum sun-spots. A well-marked coincidence exists between the eleven years cycle of sun-spots and the rainfall at Bombay. This will be clearly shown in Table III.
Passing from these two points on the great Indian Ocean lying north of the equator, to another station in the south, we find similar results. The periodicity in the rainfall of the Cape of Good Hope is even more strongly disclosed in the following table than that of Madras or Bombay. The Australian stations do not lie upon the Indian Ocean, and are separated from it by a great continent. The evidence which they yield on the subject is meagre and irregular; but such it is, it scarcely bears on an inquiry which deals with the water supply collected by the great periodical winds from the Indian Ocean.
The collateral evidence with regard to a common periodicity between the sun-spots, wind disturbances and rainfall, may therefore be ranged under ten heads. These are: First, magnetic declination; second, electrical displays (auroras); third, Dr. Meldrum’s list of cyclones in the Indian Ocean; fourth, M. Poey’s hurricane lists for West Indies; fifth, the marine casualities posted on loyd’s Loss-book; sixth, the rain-fall at Madras brought by the north-eastern, and seventh, by the south-western monsoon; eight, the annual rainfall at Madras; ninth, the annual rainfall at Bombay (almost entirely brought by the south-western monsoon); and tenth, the annual rainfall at the Cape of Good Hope. We have stated the facts as regards solar radiation, mean, temperature, and clouds; but they do not, in our opinion, supply a sufficiently firm basis for induction. The rest of the evidence is exhibited in the table following.
TABLE III. ELEVEN YEARS’ CYCLE OF SUN-SPOTS, TERRESTRIAL MAGNETISM, ELECTRIC DISPLAYS (AURORAS), WIND DISTURBANCES, MARINE CASUALTIES, RAINFALL, AND FAMINE. (Table deleted)
The main point of inquiry in that table may be thus stated. Is the variation in solar activity, as indicated by the waxing and waning of solar up-rushes, spots, and prominences, reflected in terrestrial phenomena? Consequently, does a common cycle exist in solar and terrestrial phenomena, in addition to and independent
page 27 of the two ordinary cycles caused by the diurnal and by the annual revolutions of the earth?
To answer this question we have examined the results separately arrived at by students of six classes of phenomena⎯namely, the sun-spots as an index of solar energy, terrestrial magnetism, temperature, wind disturbances, cloud, and rainfall. We find that as regards sun-spots and terrestrial magnetism a common cycle of eleven years is now an established fact; that there are indications (although not proofs) of an eleven years’ cycle in solar radiation, mean temperature, and cloud proportion; that there is ample evidence of such a cycle in wind disturbances; and absolute proof of a cycle of eleven years in the great factors of the Madras rainfall. We further find that the eleven years’ cycle in the separate classes of terrestrial phenomena correspond with the eleven years’ cycle of sun-spots; and that with regard to the three sets of terrestrial phenomena on which we possess fullest evidence (magnetism, wind disturbances, and rainfall), the correspondence is most clearly established. At the commencement of the paper we saw that on a priori grounds, arrived at from recent solar work, there was reason to suspect an eleven years’ cycle common to the phenomena of the earth and the sun. We have now shown, by an induction from widely separated but converging series of facts, that such a cycle exists.
This induction has a very practical interest. We have seen that the eleven years’ cycle in terrestrial magnetism has a direct and important influence upon telegraphic enterprise; that the cycle of wind disturbances produce distinct results upon the percentage of casualties among the shipping of the world; and that the cycle of rainfall in Southern India has a coincidence with the local cycle of famine. Professor Stanley Jevons has lately proved the close connection of the cycle of sun-spots and rainfall with a cycle of commercial prosperity and disasters. But it is evident that many mediate causes must intervene in such a connection, which do not affect the cycles of physical phenomena on which we rest our case. One of the writers of this pamphlet has dealt with the subject purely as a statistician, whose duty it was to discover and tabulate all collateral evidence bearing upon the discovery which he had made regarding the cyclic character of the factors of the Madras rainfall. Another writer has re-examined that evidence in its bearings on solar physics; while a third has added the paragraph on clouds, noticed a few facts made known since the article was first written, and tested the whole as a mathematician, and from a
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purely meteorological point of view. The conclusions at which they have jointly arrived are⎯First, that notwithstanding many apparent anomalies and a large area of unexplained facts, the evidence suffices to establish the existence of a common cycle; second, that the subject merits the earnest attention both of men of science and of those who have to deal with the great present problem of Indian administration⎯the problem of recurring famines.
A study of the rainfall is one of the first duties of a civilized government in India. Indra and Váyu, the Watery Atmosphere and the Wind, are still the prime dispensers of weal or woe to the Indian races. Hundreds of thousands of thousands of lives lie every year at the mercy of the rainfall. The population is a constant (or rather an increasing) quantity, emigration on any adequate scale being incompatible with the feelings of the people. The area of tillage is also a constant quantity throughout a great part of India, spare land being no longer available. But whether the yield of the one constant quantity will or will not suffice for the necessities of the other, depends each autumn on the rainfall ⎯ a quantity which has hitherto been regarded as altogether inconstant and beyond calculation. We believe that the supposed inconstancy of the rainfall is simply the measure not of its freedom from law, but of our ignorance. We do not think it wise, from the data here collected, to prophesy future famines at Madras; although five out of the six famine-causing droughts of this century, since 1810, happened at Madras within the minimum group together with the year immediately preceding it. The time for safe prediction has not yet come. But we do think that the cyclic character of the Madras rainfall must henceforth enter into considerations connected with the food supply of the people, and into arrangements for husbanding and
distributing the water supply of Madras. The problem is how best to conserve and utilize the rainfall, not merely of the year, but of the cycle.
Fortunately, while the study of the rainfall forms a prime State duty in India, there is perhaps no country in the world better suited than India for meteorological research. If a meteorologist were to sit down and construct a model field for his inquiries, he would make a continent stretching from near the equator up into the temperate zone. He would cut off his field by a great wall on the north, with smaller coast-walls running down towards the southern extremity, and with two distinct, regular, and well-ascertained sets of winds playing from a vast expanse of ocean upon each side. India is precisely such a model. If we are ever to reach the great laws which regulate the weather, it will be by combining meteorological observations with statistical inductions in a country like that, where the general laws have a sufficient space to produce general results, and where the disturbing influences are regular and well ascertained. The first step is to find the quantitative value and variations of the several factors of Indian rainfall. Nothing will be accomplished by jumbling together rain returns from nonhomogeneous stations, at which, for their situation and surroundings, the same factors act in a totally dissimilar manner. Thus, if the north-eastern monsoon produces a periodicity in the rainfall of Madras, where it contributes twenty-nine inches of the total rainfall, there is no cause for surprise in not finding a similar periodicity at Bellári or Haidárábad, where it only yields three. The figures in the foregoing pages establish the cycle of rainfall at only two stations in India; but they are the stations for which returns exist for the longest periods, and at which the two great factors of the Indian rainfall can produce clearly marked effects.
REPORT ON THE VARIATION OF RAINFALL IN TROPICAL INDIA WITH THE CYCLE OF SUN-SPOT FREQUENCY, BY MR. H. F. BLANFORD.
The pamphlet lately put forth by Dr. Hunter treats of two subjects; which are virtually distinct, viz., the rainfall of the presidency town of Madras, and the occurrences of famines in various parts of Southern India. Amid many fluctuations, which at present are reducible to no law, the annual rainfall of Madras city appears to be subject to a regular cyclical variation, in periods of about eleven
years; and the epochs of maximum and minimum precipitation coincide approximately with those of sun-spot frequency, long since established by the labours of Schwabe and Wolf. This fact is, however, not new to science. It was brought to notice originally in 1872 by Mr. Norman Lockyer, and has only received extended confirmation at the hands of Dr. Hunter, who had at his
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command the more abundant materials lately furnished by Mr. Pogson. That reasons scarcity and famine in Southern India tend to recur also at intervals of about eleven years, and at the epochs of sun-spot minimum, if satisfactorily established, would be a discovery of very great importance; but it is obvious that the former class of facts can hardly be adduced in support of the latter, unless it can also be shown that a deficiency in the rainfall in the presidency town indicates a deficiency productive of famine over some considerable area of Southern India. Till this is done, the supposed periodicity of the latter class of phenomena has only such validity as may be warranted by the facts independently adduced in its support. Unfortunately, this which to the administrator is the subject of cardinal importance, is treated of in a very cursory manner in the pamphlet, and I regret that I am not able to add anything of importance to Dr. Hunter’s data. In order to establish any conclusion which might serve as a guide to the probable necessities of the future, it would be necessary carefully to collect all the available evidence
page 28 on the extent, intensity, and causes of famines, say, since the beginning of the century; and to subject the whole to a perfectly impartial and rigorous analysis. Whatever may be the law of famine recurrence in Southern India, whether or not these disasters tend to recur, as Dr. Hunter believes, more especially at the epochs of minimum solar activity, or whatever be the numerical expression of that tendency, it does not appear to hold good in Northern India. The years 1836, 1837, and 1838 were years of maximum sun-spots, but in the N.W. Provinces these were also years of unusually deficient rainfall, productive of famine. And the famine of Upper India in 1861 followed on the failure of the winter rains in 1860-61, these being also years of maximum sun-spots. Again, the scarcity in Khandesh in 1872 occurred only two years after the year of most abundant sun-spots of this century, and when the number was still above that of any previous year of maximum except 1837.
As I am not in a position to discuss this important, but at the same time somewhat intricate, question of the relative intensities of past famines, and the causes which in each case have contributed to exacerbate or mitigate their severity, I shall restrict this investigation to the question whether, in tropical India generally, the quantity of the annual rainfall shows any decided tendency to fluctuate in an eleven-year cycle; and thus endeavour to supply the link which is logically wanting to connect the
two subjects discussed in Dr. Hunter’s pamphlet. The discussion, I must premise, is very far from exhaustive. It has, indeed, been an object of the Meteorological Department, ever since it was first established, to bring together the records of rainfall in parts of India that relate to past years, with a view to a through investigation of the laws of its distribution both in space and time; and thus, amid a large number for shorter periods, I have obtained the registers of seven important stations which extend back thirty years and upwards. These will serve as a basis for the present discussion. But there is little doubt that they are but a small portion of the data actually extant for equally long periods, and I believe that at some future day it may be possible to resume the enquiry with more ample materials, and with far more comprehensive objects.
The seven stations in question are all situated within the tropics. They are Madras, Bangalore, Mysore, in Southern India; Bombay, Nagpur, Jubbulpore, and Calcutta. In a foot-note below, are enumerated the sources from which the registers have been severally derived, and the following table exhibits the whole of the data tabulated according to the years. The final column gives Wolf’s relative numbers of sun-spot frequency up to 1874. The accompanying diagram exhibits the data for the three presidency towns in a graphic form, together with the curve of sun-spot variation according to Wolf’s determination. TABLE I. ANNUAL RAINFALL REGISTERED AT SEVEN STATIONS IN TROPICAL INDIA. (Table deleted)
page 29 It is evident on a simple inspection of the diagram
that the fluctuations of rainfall of the three presidency towns show no very striking similarity, and only in the curve for Madras can anything like a general coincidence with the variations of the sun-spot curve be detected by eye.
With a view to ascertain what amount of agreement there is in the annual fluctuations of the rainfall at the different stations, the following tables have been constructed. The first (Table II.) shows the difference of each year’s rainfall at each station above or below the average of that station, and the second (Table III.) taking the stations in pairs, shows in how many years these variations are in the same or in opposite directions at the two stations compared. Now, if the fluctuations which occur from year to year are mainly due to some one cause
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of general incidence over the whole of tropical India, such, for instance as a deficiency of vapour in the atmosphere, we may expect that in a large majority of instances, the deviations from the average will be in the same direction; that is to say, there will be a very decided majority of years in which pairs of stations not specially selected, will agree in having a rainfall either above or below the average. The same result will appear if these fluctuations are, in any considerable degree, due to the vapour-bearing winds being generally diverted from the region as a whole, and carried to discharge their vapour burden elsewhere. But if the fluctuations are chiefly due to local causes and are such that a deficiency in one part of the region is on the whole compensated by an excessive fall in some other tract, then we may anticipate that, in a certain majority of instances, the variations will be in opposite directions, provided the stations compared are situated so far apart that they are not likely to be similarly affected by the same merely local causes.
TABLE II. SHEWING THE FLUCTUATIONS OF THE ANNUAL RAINFALL ABOVE OR BELOW THE LOCAL AVERAGE. (Table deleted) TABLE III. SHEWING THE NUMBER OF YEARS IN WHICH THE FLUCTUATION OF THE RAINFALL COINCIDED OR DIFFERED AT THE STATIONS TAKEN IN PARIS. (Table deleted) Assuming that the data here tabulated are sufficient to afford some criterion of the laws of rainfall variation, it appears from Table III. That cases in which the deficient or excessive rainfall in one part of the country is more or less compensated by the opposite fluctuation in some other part of the country, and those in which the deficiency or excess is simultaneous at a pair of distant stations are about equally common. A more detailed examination of the rainfall of the 22 years, for which we have seven stations, shows that on an average 63 percent of the stations vary in one direction and 37 percent in the other, in each year.
Since 1836 (up to which date we have less than five registers) Table II. Shows not a single year in which the rainfall has been either below or above the average at all
the stations recorded. At the same time, several years may be pointed out, in which there was a considerable deficiency or excess at most of the stations simultaneously, and some in which a deficiency at one or more of the stations was to a certain extent compensated by an equally marked excess elsewhere. Thus, in 1837, 1838, 1845, 1855, 1860, and 1876, there was a more
page 30 or less serious deficiency at the majority of the stations enumerated; in 1852, 1870, and 1874, as striking an excess. The tabulated rainfall of the years 1842, 1850, 1868, 1871, 1872, and 1875 is characterized by great inequalities, some stations showing a fall greatly above the average, and others below it. These remarks, be it observed, have reference to the whole of India lying within the tropics. If, however, we restrict our attention to the three stations of Southern India ⎯ Madras, Bangalore, and Mysore ⎯ we find no evidence of any greater coincidence or regularity; for Table III. shows that, while at Bangalore the fluctuation agrees with that of Madras in twenty-two years, it is in the opposite direction in eighteen years; and at Mysore, somewhat nearer the west coast, the fluctuation agrees in fifteen years only, and differs in twenty-four.
These registers seem to show that the fluctuations of the rainfall registered at the Madras Observatory are no criterion of the existence of similar fluctuations over Southern India generally; and perhaps such a result was to be expected, since the high ground of the western half of the peninsula receives its chief rainfall during the summer months; while the rainy season of Madras and the Carnatic generally is from October to December. The rainfall of the Carnatic and the Northern Circars may be expected to vary more or less pari passu with that of Madras, but I have at present no other register for this tract.
The above is perhaps sufficient to show that the generalizations on rainfall of Dr. Hunter's pamphlet probably require some modification and limitation, inasmuch as he extends to Southern India generally conclusions deduced solely from the registers of the town of Madras; and this procedure appears to be unjustified. But since it may nevertheless be true that there is a marked deficiency in the rainfall of Southern India about the epochs of minimum sun-spots, although not necessarily in the same years as at Madras, it will be more satisfactory if we analyze the whole of the data in the
The yeas 1837 and 1838, and 1860, were yeas of maximumSun-spots; 1845, 1855, and 1876, within one or two yeas ofmunimum spots. 1870 was a year of maximum, and 1852 and1874 fell midway between the maximum and minimum years.
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same manner as Dr. Hunter has done for those of Madras. This is done in the following tables.
The first of these (Table IV.) shows for each station separately the average annual excess or deficiency of the rainfall, in each year of the eleven-year cycle, as compared with the general average for that station; and also the number of years from which each average has been obtained; and in the final column, the average of Wolf a sun-spot numbers. The figures for rainfall in the different columns are, of course, not comparable with each other, since an excess of say, 20 inches at Madras, on its general average of 48.51 inches, indicates a much wetter year than the same excess at Bombay with an average of nearly 73 inches. In order, therefore, to admit of these particular results being compared and combined, Table V. has been computed, which gives the average excess or deficiency in the form of a percentage of the general average rainfall of each station.
TABLE IV. AVERAGE EXCESS OR DEFICIENCY OR RAINFALL AT EACH STATION FOR EACH YEAR OF THE ELEVEN-YEAR CYCLE. (Table deleted) TABLE V. THE SAME AS PER CENTAGES OF THE LOCAL RAINFALL. (Table deleted)
Of the six stations here collected with Madras, Nagpur alone shows any approach to that cyclical variation of rainfall which is so distinctly exhibited in the Madras Registers. The group of years including 1870 is that with the greatest average of sun-spot ; that including 1866 represents the epoch of sun-spot minimum. In the former year group the rainfall is below the average at most of the stations, and in the latter above it, thus reversing the hypothetical order of relation. Nagpur is, indeed, an exception in both instances ⎯ Jubbulpore in the former, and Bangalore in the latter; but on the whole the 1863 group is that of the heaviest, and the 1865 group that of the lightest, rainfall.
The general result is best exhibited by multiplying each of the percentages in the second table by the number of years corresponding to it in the first, adding the several products of the same year and dividing by the sum of the multipliers. By this means each station
page 31 contributes to the final result in proportion to the extent of this register, and the result is as follows :-
The groups of years, including 1861 and 1863, would thus appear to have an excessive rainfall, and that including 1865 (with 1876) a fall much below the average. But anything like a regular cyclical variation is far from distinct, and there can be little doubt that a large part of the anomaly is fortuitous, and owing to the irregular and non-periodic variations being imperfectly eliminated; so that we should rather expect, in future years, a fall somewhat above the average in the 1865 group, and one below it in the 1861 and 1863 groups, with the result of diminishing the average differences shown in the table. That there is, however, a certain cyclical variation underlying the irregularities may be made manifest by the familiar process of taking as a new mean, for each year, the mean of the tabular rainfall of the year itself and half that of the proceeding and succeeding years. Dealing with the figures in this way, we obtain the following : -
Even thus corrected, the figures show irregularities which render it probable that the real cyclical variation is even smaller than that shown by their range in the table, viz., about 9 per cent. And as a final result, the data now adduced seem to indicate that, taking tropical India as a whole, the rainfall is subject to a certain cyclical variation coinciding in length of period with that of the sun-spot
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frequency, but that this variation has a range of less than 5 per cent. above or below the average; and to no greater extent can the probability of dearth be regarded as subject to a regular periodical increase or decrease. The range of the cyclical variation at the town of Madras itself is, however, very much greater, at least double this amount ; it is possible that this is merely local, but it is also possible that the peculiarity may be shared by the Carnatic generally, and by that portion of India (and Ceylon) which receives its chief rainfall at the same season as Madras. I shall endeavour to obtain any rainfall register for long periods that may be extant for important stations in this region, and should they contribute any
further information of importance I shall submit a supplementary report.
With respect to famines, the very meager data adduced in the earlier part of this report seem to show that if they are more frequent in Southern India at the epochs of minimum sun-spots, they are more frequent in Northern India at those of maximum sun-spots; but I am far from regarding the present data as sufficient to admit of any useful generalization.
HENRY F. BLANFORD. Meteorological Reporter to the Govt. of India. Calcutta,
18th May, 1877.
NOTES OF EVIDENCE FURNISHED TO THE FEMINE COMMISSION ON JANUARY 30TH, 1879.
BY NORMAN R. POGSON, C.I.E., & c., Government Astronomer, Madras. Out of the seven or eight hundred thousand fixed stars visible on any fine night with an ordinary telescope of about two inches aperture, a small number are known to show decided and periodical changes in their brilliancy. My attention has been much occupied with this class of celestial objects for thirty years past, during which time their number has been augmented by subsequent discoveries, from fifty-three to one hundred and seventy-six. Many others are suspected to be subject to change, but I speak only of such as are indubitably proved to be variable.
The fact of fluctuations occurring in the light of certain stars has been known from the earliest ages, but the periodicity of such changes only for about two centuries and a half. And while almost every other branch of astronomy has yielded to the patient investigations of its students, this one has so far baffled all attempts yet made to account for the phenomena it presents to our contemplation, that in this present year we can no more explain them than could their first discoverer, Phocylides Holwarda, in 1639.
As a general rule, such periodically variable stars increase in brilliancy more rapidly before attaining a maximum of intensity than they subsequently fade away to a minimum. Some absolutely vanish, in the largest telescopes yet constructed, while others vary so slightly that the change is only to be recognized by very
experienced observers. The periods of variation are in many cases marvelously regular, but in a few, fitful and capricious. In duration also they differ widely ; the shortest completing its changes in about twenty hours, while some periods extend every many years, and one variable star, conspicuous at noon day, seems to be at a maximum only once in three centuries. Neither is the intensity of light equal at successive maxima. The whole subject, though familiar as a fact, is shrouded in mystery and perfectly inexplicable.
Our sun, if viewed from the nearest of the fixed stars, would be seen only as one of themselves, and would undoubtedly be recognized as a variable star of very slight fluctuation, with a period of about eleven years and one month. It would present the distinguished characteristics above named, of usually more rapid increase, slower diminution of light, and irregularity of period, as well as of the intensity of its maximum brilliancy. This interesting discovery is due to the persevering records of an amateur astronomer, Louis Schwabe, of Dessau, who commenced his observations in 1826, by simply counting the number of new spots visible each day upon the sun’s disc. He found them to be increasing till 1830 ; diminishing for the next few years, and again rising to a nearly doubly intense maximum in 1837. This, it may be remarked, was the briefest period before or since made known. His first announcement of these important results
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was given in the “Astronomische Nachrichten,” No. 350, in April 1838. Continuing his observations with renewed vigour, another minimum was found to occur in 1843 ; a maximum in 1848, and a third decided minimum in 1856. He had then made upwards of nine thousand records of about four thousand seven hundred separate groups of sun spots ; had conspicuously proved his point, and most worthily received universal acknowledgements of his great discovery ; amongst others, the medal of the Royal Astronomical Society of England in 1857, never better bestowed.
Professor R. Wolf, of Zurich, next took up the research, and, by a masterly investigation of all past records of solar spots, and subsequent observations of his own, was able to furnish a table of successive minima and maxima, extending from 1611 to 1867. He also arrived at the further conclusions ; that the average period was 11.1 years; that the spots increased in frequency for 4.8 years, and diminished for 6.3 years, and that the duration of the period was considerably irregular ; while the activity of the spots was shown to be greater in short periods than in longer ones. The relative positions of our Earth and Venus were found to produce a marked fluctuation in a little more than seven and half months, while a far more important effect, due to the great planet Jupiter, recurred in about fifty-six years or at each fifth spot period.
Frequent memorable, and to me most interesting, con-
page 32 versations with my revered friend and master, Manuel John Johnson, Radcliffe Observer at Oxford, who, as President of the Royal Astronomical Society, had to prepare and deliver the address to Professor Schwabe, of Dessau, when the Society’s Gold Medal was awarded to him for his valuable discovery, coupled with my own researches upon the variable stars, led me at once to conclude that our sun was a variable star; and, if variable in light, doubtless also in heat; and that hence all our meteorological phenomena, especially temperature and rainfall, must be influenced by its changes. I also foresaw, however, the vast difficulties in the way of arriving at any satisfactory proof of such connection; for, as I then argued with Mr. Johnson, twenty years ago, the effects must be compensating in different parts of the world, and any demonstration of such connection must be based upon polar or equatorial meteorological records, and not upon those made in middle latitudes. My views were
completely confirmed by the subsequent failure of several eminent meteorologists, who had naturally jumped at the same surmise, but, overlooking my precautions as to locality, had tried to deduce conclusions from comparing solar phenomena with European meteorological records. Their failure was distinctly foreseen to my mind. The diagram to which I shall shortly request your attention, further proves that Southern India is, by no means, badly situated for realizing the truth of the ideas I entertained more than twenty years ago.
Coincidently with Schwabe’s solar researches, Professor Lamount, of Munich, made a similar, but perfectly independent discovery, in regard to terrestrial magnetism. He found that the diurnal range of his magnetical instruments was subject to nearly decimal variation, indicating that some great cosmical influence was at work, hither to unrecognized, but producing evident maxima and minima of magnetic intensity in a period of about ten years. This he announced in the year 1850. Our own distinguished Sabine was the one to point out the coincidence of the solar spot and terrestrial magnetic effects, and his sagacious recognition of the circumstance was duly investigated and fully confirmed, by Professor E. Gautier, of Geneva, and Professor R. Wolf, then at Berne. A similar periodicity and coincidence of epochs has since been pointed out in auroral phenomena by Dr. H. Fritsch, of Pekin, still further corroborating the evident influence of the solar upon terrestrial phenomena. And, lastly, Mr. Meldrum, of Mauritius, has shown that cyclones are following in the wake of the sun spot curve, subject to a similar law of periodicity.
I next proceed to lay before you my own views as to the way in which the prevalence of sun spots affects the rainfall of this empire, producing exactly contrary effects in Northern and Southern India. Water is well known to be a bad conductor of heat, and hence a small difference in the actual intensity of sunshine will not very materially affect the amount of vapour raised by evaporation from the surface of the ocean. Rock, earth, and sand, being more absorbent of heat, will acquire a much higher temperature from sunshine than the surface of the sea can ever do; and hence, in hot, clear years, the vapour raised by evaporation will pass over the heated, sandy soil, of the Coromandel Coast, with out much chance of suffering condensation and release, in the form of rain, until it reaches the cooler, elevated plateaus, or probably, even the snow-capped hill ranges of Northern India. Hence, drought and scarcity in Southern India should be marked
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by excessive rainfall and floods in higher latitudes. On the contrary, when the land is less heated by direct sunshine in the southern portion of India, rain will fall more readily; the clouds will be relieved of their excessive load of aqueous vapour, and so our years of excess, especially in the eastern districts of the Madras Presidency, will be marked by corresponding deficiency in Upper India.
I am strongly inclined also to suspect another cause, not generally thought of, may be at work, powerfully co-operating to produce similar effects. It was an old remark of the veteran aeronaut, Green, who, if not a man of scientific reputation, was certainly a shrewd observer of natural phenomena, that whenever he made one of his balloon ascents on a cloudy day when rain was not falling, he invariably found, that after passing through the lower cloud stratum, the sun was shining brightly upon its upper surface. On other occasions it would sometimes happen, that in order to keep faith with his public engagements, he felt obliged to go up in uncomfortable drizzling rain, not sufficiently severe to countenance a postponement of his performance; and at such times, he generally found a second and much higher cloud stratum was effectually sheltering the lower clouds from the solar influence. This observation was, I believe, fully corroborated in the scientific balloon ascents of Mr. Welch and Mr. Glaisher, made on behalf of the British Association of Science. Now the lower clouds are undoubtedly those formed by direct evaporation from the Indian Ocean, and are far more subject to disturbance by surface winds and local circumstances; while the upper stratum will be less affected by such casual local influences, may be brought from a much greater distance by the far more steadily flowing upper currents of the atmosphere, and may possibly be, like terrestial magnetism and auroral phenomena, subject to a periodicity of intensity varying with the frequency of the solar spots. In such case we need no longer feel surprised, that in some seasons, our monsoon clouds, which are our chief source of rainfall in the Madras Presidency, though apparently well charged with the much needed nature restoring supply of vapour, pass away, leaving us in distress and famine emergencies, to produce mischievous floods and destruction of crops in higher latitudes. People are much too apt, in regarding India as a whole, to overlook its vast extent, and to forget that its southern portion is inter-tropical, while upper India is not only in the north temperate zone, but is further aided in its meteorological reversing powers, by the lofty elevation of its mountain ranges.
It would be highly interesting and important to know, but I have no available sources of information upon the subject, whether an analogous course of events does not prevail in the somewhat similarly situated, but far grander continent of South America. A comparison of rainfall at some places on the coasts of Pernambuco and Bahia with others in southern central Brazil, especially approaching the Cordillera range, should, if my views are well founded, show a repetition of what we experience in India.
At Madras, for such limited period as black bulb thermometers in vacuo have been in use, it is pretty evident that sunshine has recently been hottest in years when there are fewest sun spots, and I think that professor Gautier, of Geneva, held the same opinion. I believe that this will be found to be the case generally near the equator, but that if my upper cloud stratum notions have any truth in them, a contrary result may be deducible from the readings of the same instrument in temperate latitudes. Mr. Blandford and many other eminent meteorologists maintain that the solar heat is greatest when sun spots are most frequent, but this is precisely what I should expect under the reversed conditions of their geographical positions.
The black bulb thermometer in vacuo is a very valuable rough and ready instrument, but there are some points about it not yet explained. For instance, it is affected by light as well as by heat, which does not appear to be generally known. If comparisons are made between a black bulb in vacuo and an ordinary standard dry bulb at night, say at 10 p.m., and they are found to agree within a small and pretty constant limit; no matter what precautions may be taken to secure the black bulb from direct or reflected sunshine, comparisons in day light will show an unsteady difference of from four to seven or eight degrees. Sir John Herschel’s Actinometer might be a better means of investigating solar heat, but the process is too slow and troublesome ever to find favour, and so far as I know, no records of such an instrument have ever been made by any one throughout a complete solar spot period of eleven years, especially not where such observations are most important, at a station well within the torrid zone.
The time has not yet arrived, at which, by our knowledge of the subject, years of famine and distress due to great deficiency of rainfall can be systematically predicted with anything like the certainty of astronomical phenomena in general; but when, as during the last twelve years, the sun spot curve is moving in marked accordance
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with the interpolated rainfall curve and the fluctuations of the former are unusually marked, scarcity may undoubtedly be seriously feared and prepared for in this part of the Madras Presidency, about the epoch of fewest sun spots. It unfortunately happens that out estimate of least solar activity in spot formation is limited by a total absence of these natural indications of solar change; and hence, maintaining as I do, that absence of spots means greatest solar energy and their prevalence a diminution thereof, it is evident that we have less means of comparing the sun’s relative intensity at the epochs of minimum spots than at those of maximum; or in other words, that while we are able to appreciate in our solar curve the varying height of the maxima, all our minima appear to be tolerably
page 33 similar; bounded by the zero record of “no spots.” In nearly all cases of variable star curves it is the epoch of greatest brilliancy, in their case the maximum of the curve and corresponding to our solar minimum, which is by far the most fluctuating and irregular, and I believe that if observation enabled us to form any notion of the increase of solar intensity beyond that at which spots begin to appear as indices of its diminution, the minimum points of the solar curve would often make a sharp and sudden descent below zero, especially in years of deficiency in rainfall within the torrid zone. I am not inclined to accept the apparently greater height of the solar maxima since 1835 as actual proof of increased spot activity, or as I regard it of diminished solar intensity, but simply as the result of the groups having been more carefully counted since that time and smaller ones allowed to swell up the records, which in earlier years, with the toy telescopes then employed, were considered too insignificant to be counted. I look for the next epoch of deficiency of rain in southern India between 1888 and 1891, but probably for none so bad as that recently endured until the next fifth epoch of solar spot minimum, due about 1932.
In my Administration Report to the Madras Government for 1874-75, I made the following remark, “Five consecutive years of excess having now been experienced, the evident periodicity of tropical rain-fall renders it probable that some years of corresponding deficiency may be expected.” This since fully verified prediction, though duly printed in the spare copies of my Report, was suppressed by the compiler of the annual Volume of Administration Reports for 1874-75. It is to be regretted that suppressions in and alterations of the
Observatory Reports are ever permitted without the Astronomer being allowed a voice in the matter.
Let it be remembered, however, that my remarks apply only to inter-tropical India, and that if my views are correct, the condition of northern India must ever be the reverse of what we have reason to expect here. In another three years we shall no doubt be grumbling at excessive rainfall; while the cry of distress and scarcity will be from the north; but at each epoch of maximum or minimum I believe one or other part of India will suffer more or less, and that the intermediate years are alone those in which general immunity from famine can be relied upon.
In Table 1 will be found the data from which the accompanying diagram of curves, illustrating the very strikingly intimate connection between sun-spot frequency, rainfall, and grain prices in Madras, has been formed.
Column 1 indicates the year up to the end of which the sun spot and rain registers refer; but the grain prices being given for the official instead of the calendar year are three or four months behind. The slight difference of 0.3 of a year has not been allowed for in the projection.
Column 2 gives Wolf’s Relative numbers, from the “Astronomische Nachrichten” No. 1717, & c.; indicating the proportional frequency of the solar spots in various years, from 1800 to 1877.
Column 3 contains the actual rainfall measured at Madras from 1803 to 1878, omitting four doubtful years, 1808, 1809, 1810 and 1812, when, in the absence of the Astronomer, the registers of all kinds were evidently unreliable. The irregularity of the successive annual registers of rain-fall is chiefly due to cyclonic disturbances; for while some years returns are unduly exaggerated by an abnormal addition to the register from the effects of a cyclone at or near Madras, as at Masulipatam or Vizagapatam, must be to divert our upper air current to restore the atmospheric equilibrium suddenly depressed at such stations, carrying away the upper cloud stratum, and so preventing the lower clouds from depositing rain while their upper surface is exposed to sunshine. The last two years in the Table are striking examples of these contrary effects. In may 1877, a purely cyclonic rain-fall in May added twenty one inches abnormally to the annual amount, and a similar quantity in November was also chiefly cyclonic. Deducting these, the register for the year would have been twenty-four instead of sixty-six inches. In 1878 again, the total fall was only twenty-eight inches, when but for the atmospheric drainage occasioned by the two successive
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Vizagapatam cyclones of November and December it would very probably have reached nearly fifty inches.
The numbers in column 4 are obtained from those in column 3 by an interpolating or smoothing process, which to a considerable extent eliminates this irregularity, by distributing and sub-dividing such casual excesses and deficiencies between preceding and following years. The numbers in this column are found by adding the rain-falls in the preceding and following years to twice that of each current year and dividing by four. It is true that actual intensity of maximum and minimum years of rain-fall is thus toned down and range unfairly diminished, but the general law of rise and fall of the curve and the dates of maxima and minima are rendered far more evident and will not be vitiated by the process, which is one frequently applied to the consideration of irregularly periodical phenomena, and is especially necessary in discussing the light curves of variable stars.
Column 5 furnishes the price of paddy per grace of 3200 Madras measures, from the Revenue Board Returns, the mean being taken between the prices of the first and second sorts of grain. In column 6 these prices have been subjected to the same allowable and necessary smoothing process just described as applied to the rain-fall returns.
In the diagram, the years are indicated above and below. In the upper curve the bars indicate the relative frequency of the sun spots, and the waving line is drawn strictly through the tops of the bars without any smoothing process; the object in view being to show the actual irregularities in the solar changes, which are however, so progressive as not to require toning down to deduce the successive epochs of maximum and minimum. In the middle projection of rain-fall, and the lower one of grain prices, while the bars represent the actual and very irregular annual numbers, the curves are traced through the interpolated or smoothened points, given respectively in columns 4 and 6 of Table 1. The successive corresponding maxima and minima are connected by dotted lines.
It will be at once seen on inspection, that although the successive maxima and minima of sun spots and rain-fall are not strictly correspondent as regards time, sometimes one and sometimes the other taking priority, the succession is perfect and unbroken so far throughout this century. Intermediate rising and falling of the rain-
curve is sometimes observable while the frequency of the sun spots is diminishing, especially about the years 1849-52 and 1861-63; but a glance at the solar curve shows that it is itself subject to slight arrest and fluctuation during its descent; and that the rain curve, in its very deviations from apparent order and regularity, is but obeying the solar impulses, and that too in so marked a manner as to render these sympathetic intermediate bends almost as striking a verification of the physical connection between the two phenomena as the unbroken succession of the maxima and minima themselves.
Table 2 shows the dates and values of the maxima and minima furnished by the three curves. For sun spots and rainfall each date read off the curve has been increased by 0.5, and for grain price by 0.7, in consideration of what was stated with reference to column 1 of the preceding table.
Mathematical formulate of interpolation, though beautifully symmetrical and incomparably superior wherever applicable, often obscure rather than illustrate such irregular curves as those with which we have to deal, whereas simple projection conspicuously points out the very peculiarities which the more elegant analytical process would only disguise. The paddy price curve shows, as might be expected, the inevitable rise in the cost of grain corresponding to each minimum year of rain-fall, though too often a very acceptable improvement in the rainfall was not followed by a corresponding reduction in the price of paddy. Indeed it is well worthy of remark that the maximum price (Rupees 119) shown by the curve in 1846, is lower than any price on record since 1853, and the maximum of 1855, after a very rapid rise, is only four Rupees above the next intermediate fall and actually five Rupees less than the periodical minimum of 1859, which, though geometrically indicated by a slight descent on the curve followed by a rapid rise, was certainly no minimum agreeably to the popular notion conveyed by such an expression. TABLE I. (Table deleted) TABLE II. MAXIMA AND MINIMA RESULTS FURNISHED BY THE THREE CURVES (Table deleted)
