Global clin1ate negotiation s have grown out of an imperati ve to manage the increasing concentration of greenhou se gase s (GHG) that inten sify the heat-trapping capacity of the Eruth 's atinosphere. In recent decade s, clin1ate change has i1npacted natural ru1d hu1nan syste111s on all continents ; affecting water resource s, shifting specie s distributions and changing crop yields. 1 ,Vbile this raises the issue of reflecting anon-stationruy or unstable clin1ate in cun ·ent discour se, plru111ing ru1d goven1ru1ce, there ru·e few shru·ed visions of how climate impact s in even the next two decades 2
will affect social , economic and enviro11111ental syste1ns. Within the bounds of natural vru'iability , a relatively stable climate system has been nonnative in 1node111 histo1y. Theref ore , it is a novel conceptual challenge to identify what factor s ru·e most directly climate-related and "vhich ru·e indirectly affected by climate change in our dynrunic social, eco110111ic ru1d environ1nental ~y ~tems. Even for re seru·chers , policy-makers ru1d practitioners who have worked closely "vith GHG ru1d climate issues for 111any yeru·s, there is a tendency to envision future plru1s as taking place within a systen1 that is not itself affected by clin1ate change. TI1is challenges the gov en1ru1ce of global climate negotiations to develop and adopt 1nechru1istns that reflect how the clin1ate is actually chru1gi11g and acconun odate ensuing regional ru1d national shift s in vulnerability , adaptive capacity and social value s. h1tegrity systen1s to guide gove1nru1ce that i11co1porate 1nechanis111s founded on adapti ve ru1d lnunanitru ·ian principle s cru1 supp o1t ethical stability runid dynrunic shifts that will affect nations' capacity to address their agreed 11ghts and resp onsibilitie s.
Govel'nance fol' Stability
As a foundation of com111on law, a n1easure of succe ss in goven1ru1ce is inst111ments that hav e persisted ov er tune ru1d beco111 e ii1stitutio11s. By then· ve1y nature , ii1stitutions ru·e designed to persist through n1ore superficial chan ges iii opii1ion, sho1t-tenn crisi s ru1d sn1all shifts iii culture. In the ongoing discussions and debates that shape goven1ru1ce of the global climate regiine we build on com111on practice s fi·o111 the past that offer stability. TI1ese 111ay not , howe ver, be adequate to reflect
1 CluistopherB. Field et al., 'StunmaryforPolicymaker s' , in Cli1nate Change 2014: Impacts,Adap tation, and Viilnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fifih Assess1nent Report of the Intergovern1nental Panel on Cliniate Change, ed. C.B. Field , \T.R. Ban·os , D.J. Dokken , K.J. Mach , M.D. Mastrandrea , T.E. Bilir , M. Chatte1jee, K.L. Ebi , Y.O. Esb·acla, R.C. Genova , B. Guma , E. S. Kissel , A.N. Levy, S. Mac Cracken , PR. Masb·anclrea, L.L. White (Ca111b1iclge: Catnb1idge Univer sity Press, 2014) .
2 Ben Kirhnan et al., 'Near- Te1n1 Clin1ate Chai1ge: Projections and Predictability ', in Cli1nate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis (Ca111b1iclge and New York: Cat11bridge University Pre ss, 2013) .
106 Ethical Values and the Integrity of the Climate Chang e Regime
fundrunental differences in the underlying 11ah1re of the present 811d fi1h1re environment where cru·bon 811d climate gove1nru1ce 111ust function. Well into its first quruter, the twenty-first cenhuy is chru·acterized by a population greater thfill seven billion , i11stfilltat1eous telecom111unicatio11 available to tnfilly individuals as well as govenunents , ongoing enviro11111ental degradation on a massive scale 811d co111plex chru1ges to atmospheric ru1d oceru1ic che111istty. TI1e interconnected nature of these exten1al factor s is pushing social 811d econo111ic syste111s into a series offi1ndrune11tal and so111etiines sudden adjustn1ents. Regional ru1d state actors as well as over-ru·ching instih1tions such as the United Nations ru·e shaping the foundations for fi1h1re goven1ru1ce through the choices made today. However, these gove1nru1ce sti11ch1res ii1co1porate 1nfilly 111echfillis111s that reflect the past operatii1g boundru·ies of our social, economic and environmental syste111s. Taking cli111ate chru1ge ii1to account is often fi-runed as s111all adjusttnents or one-time chfillges to existing practice with the ai111 of pursuii1g cun·ent objectives into the fi1h1re. 3 This e111phasis on preserving existing systems 811d restoration to prev ious states serves to reii1force the slow-111ovi11g nah1re of co111mo11 goven1ru1ce goal s. The ve1y idea of re-evaluatii1g long-stfilldii1g goven1ru1ce goal s ii1troduces an explicit elen1ent of chru1ge that questions systen1 stability. 'vVe look to gove1nru1ce ru1d legal systems to provide the stability needed for decision-making ru1d fo,wru·d plru1nii1g. Re-evaluatii1g fi1ndrunental goals creates the broader challenge of 111akii1g legal processe s at1d ii1stn1111ents across all scales 111ore responsive ru1d adaptable4 within ii1creasii1gly dynrunic global envfronmental chru1ge. We cru1 look to the development of the United N ations as ru1 ii11po1tru1t exrunple of how tt·aditional beliefs at1d values have beco111e ii1co1porated in gove1nfillce ii1stt11111ents over the last hundred yeru·s.
TI1e League ofNations was developed on the heel s of the Fii·st World Wai· ru1d gave rise to the United Nations at the end of the Second World Wai·. The United Nations, ru·guably the peak body for global gove1118llce, is founded on the unit of the nation-states that 111ake up the preponderance of UN me111bership. In 1960 the UN General Assembly adopted a Declaration on decoloni::::ation that has suppo1ted the transition to self-goven unent of 111ore that1 80 colonies. Included iii the declru·ation was a state111 ent of the 'need for the creation of conditions of stability '. 5 111is reference to political stability is a re111ii1der of the high value of a stable operatii1g envii·o11111ent for filly goven unent. Mru1y of these previous colonies have now become 111embers of the United Nations in their own right. The rights ru1d responsibilities of UN 111e111bership ru·e assigned based on past 811d cun·ent eco110111ic ru1d social indicators of wealth , security ru1d de111ocratic process . This relative stah1s is embedded in the thinking that unde1pins global gove1118llce syste111s. 'vVith a causal lii1k established between hu111ru1 activities 811d increased GHG in the attnosphere, we now refer to cli111ate chru1ge as fillthropogenic.6 \¥hen co11siderii1g right s 811d responsibilities iii cru·bon gove1118llce, ethical divides (as represented by the global dispru·ity iii nations' wealth 811d develop111ent) ru·e founded iii historic perspectives of past advfilltages fi·o111 high fossil fi1el energy use ru1d a sense of causal responsibility for GHG emissions.7 Increasin g instability in the climate systen1, 811d in the global
3 l\llark Stafford Sniith et al., 'Rethinking Adaptation for a 4°C Wodd', Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathe,natical, Physic al and Engineering Sciences 369, no . 1934 (2011).
4 Jan l\licDonald, 'The Role of Law in Adapting to Cli111ate Change', Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change 2, no. 2 (2011).
5 United Nations, 'Declaration on the Granting of Independence to Colonial Co1mtries and Peoples' (adopted by General Asse1nbly resolution 1514 (X\T) ofl4 Dece1nber 1960, 1960).
6 Kevin Noone et al., 'A Safe Operating Space for H1una11ity', Nature 461, no. 7263 (2009). 7 l\1Iargot A. H1u·lbeit, 'Evaluating Cli1nate Justice -Attitude s and Opi1iions of Individual Stakeholders
in the U1iited Nations Frrunework Cli111ate Change Convention Conference of the Parties ', Journal of Integrative Environ1nental Scien ces 8, no. 4 (2011).
Reflecting Cli1nate Change linpacts in Governance and Integrity ~s tem Design 107
social, economic and enviro111nent syste1ns, will affect the nature of inte1national gove111ance and require a greater focus on the future and on addressing disparities. Nowhere is this clearer than in the Unit ed Nations Fran1ework Convention on Cli1nate Change (UNFCCC).8
The UNFCCC is an instI111ne11t of global carbon gove111ance that deals with nations differently, based on their assess111e11t as belonging to development categories. Co1npared to the range of criteria that can be considered to indicate either a developed countiy or developing countiy, the 2015 UN criteria for status as a least developed countiy is clearly set out.9 Least developed countrie s have a capped gross national inco1ne (GNI) threshold per capita and a Hu111an Assets Index (HAI) score comprised of four ele1nents related to health and nutrition. The HAI score is equally weighted between percentages of u11de111ourished popul ation, 11101tality rate for children under five years old, secondaiy school enrohnent and adult literacy. In addition, an eco110111ic vuhierability index (EVI) gauges exposure to, ai1d capacity to deal with, e11viro111ne11tal ai1d eco1101nic shocks. In 2014 the UN Conunittee for Deve lop111ent Policy (CDP) pennanently fixed thresholds for HAI ai1d EVI to their 2012 levels.10 On the issue of inti·oducing ai1y substantial changes to least deve loped countiy categories, a 2014 CDP background paper suggests a new category based on environmental vulnerability would be ' ai1 acceptable issue, as long as it points to ai1 iinpo1tai1t st111ctural develop111ent obstacle that deserves ii1te1national suppo1t and is, to so111e extent, out of goven un ent conti·ol' .11 Local i111pacts fi·o111 an unstable cliinate will likely create env ii·o11111ental vuh1erabilities in 111ai1y counti·ies over tune , wheth er or not they are now counted as least developed countiy nations. Exti·e111e weather events ai·e ce1taii1ly outside of ai1y one govenun ent 's control ai1d theii· ongoing iiupacts on social ai1d eco110111ic capacity and vulnerabili ty 111ake the value of state111ents about pe1mai1ence ii1 regulation questionable.
In Kyoto , Japai1 ai1 agreement was signed in 1997 that established the first inte111ationally binding en1ission-reductio11 tai-gets. On the ten-yeai· ai1niversaiy of this Kyoto Proto col enterii1g into for ce ii1 2005 , the UNFCCC issued a 111edia release stating that the origii1al signator ies had collectively reduced emissions by 20 per cent, exceeding theii· agreed co111bined tai-get of a 5 per cent e111ission redu ction against 1990 Ievels.12 While the Kyoto Protocol has been at the centre of mai1y disagree111ents ai1d much rhetoric, it has played an i111po1tant pait ii111egotiating c111rent global cliinate gove111ai1ce. Global cliinate negotiation s brii1g together skilled negotiators who ai111 to gain the greatest advai1tage while giving up the least, to benefit the gove1nments they represent. Within this rhetoric, histor ical benefits fi·o111 fossil fi1el-inte11sive ii1dustries ai1d c1111·ent e111issions ai·e often chai·acterized as confen·ing obligations ai1d blan1e13 ai1d allowai1ces offi1ture cai·bon e111issions ai·e calculated as c111rency to be traded .14 Inte111ational institutions "vl1ich ostensibly suppo1t cai·bon reductions , such as the \¥orldTrade 0 1-ganization (\¥TO ) and the Inte1nationalM011etaiy Fund(IMF) ,
8 'United Nations Fra1nework Convention on Cli1n ate Change ' (1771 UNTS 107; S. Treaty Doc No . 102-38; UN Doc. A/AC .237/18 (Pait 11)/Add.l ; 31 ILM 849, 1992).
9 United Nations, 'UN, DESA , DPAD, CDP: Least Developed Counbies Crite1ia', 4 Novembel' 2014, http:// www.1n1.ot'g/en/development/desa/policy/cclp/1east developed co1n1by/least developed col01by _ c1ite1ia.shbnl.
10 Ibid . 11 Jose Antonio Alonso, Ana Luiza Co1tez, ancl Stephan Klasen, 'LDC ancl Othel' Co1u1by GJ'oupings:
How Useful Are C1u1·ent Approaches to Classify Co1u1bies in a More Heterogeneous Developing World?' (UN Depat't111ent of Econoniic and Social Affair s, 2014): 30.
12 UNFCCC , 'Kyoto Protocol 10th Anniver saiy Ti111ely Reminder Cli111ate Agreements Work ' (2015). 13 Paul Hai1is, ' :tvlisplaced Etliics of Cli111ate Chai1ge: Political \ Ts. Environ111ental Geography ', Ethics,
Pla ce and Environment 13, no . 2 (2010). 14 Will Steffen ancl Lesley Hu ghes, The Critical Decade 2013 Climate Change Science, Risks and
108 Ethical Values and the Integrity of the Climate Chang e Regime
are criticized for pro1noting economic gro,:vth that is often achie ved through deforestation and the use of carbon-intensive energy. 15 TI1is focus on economic s and prosperity is an i1npo1tant paradig111 for inten1ational trade relation s. However , the few 111echa11isms cun·ently included in eco1101nies to reduce carbon e1nissions are not well integrated into practice. In palticular, quotas alld fixed emi ssion allowal1ces tend to focus on past emi ssion s alld usages of calbon-intensive industries. Acknowledging that continuou s reducti ons in calbon e111issio11s are essential to reduce cli111ate in1pacts there is opposition to allY atte1npts that 111ight enshrine past privilege as a right. By the salne token , there is reluctance to endorse high level s of fi1ture e111issions as a right for nations on a speedy track to develop1n ent. 16
TI1e way that we understand the risk s alld costs associated with reducing cal·bon emis s ions is strongly influenced by the way that we see the fi1ture. Although we know now that hu1nan activities and the globa l cal·bon and climate syste111s al·e affecting one allother , this adds another layer of complexity to an already unce 1tai11 future. As sessing how fi1ture cli111ates alld future societies evo lve together will be usefi1l to negot iate agree111e11ts that affect 111any nations over decade s alld even centurie s. In 1998 the UN Enviro11111e11t Progral11111e (UNEP) released method s to develop climate chal1ge i111pact asses s111ents alld adaptation strate gies17 that include a diagraln to show a basic relationship between fi1ture cliinate and fi1ture societies . TI1e authors use soc io-eco 110111ic scenal·ios as context to u11derstal1d the lalger iinplications of cliinate impact s alld 111ake the point that society alld cliinate do not develop independently . Humall decisions have the capacity to affect, alld be affected by, both the climate alld soc iety. In reality , fi1ture cliinates will take place in fi1ture soc ietie s not the soc ieti es of today. Envisio11ii1g fi1ture societies ii1 the cun·ent clin1ate alld fi1ture cliinate "vith the cun·ent soc ieties can only happen ii1 our imagination s.
As we 111ake the tral1sitio11 fi·o1n our cu1re11t cliinate alld cun·ent society to the future cli111ate with afi1ture society , the tran sition will not be even alld s111ooth. Already we tend to talk about the in1pacts fi·o1n cliinate change as happenin g in the society of today , orwe see the society ofto1non·ow operatii1g ii1 the cliinate of yesterday. 18 It may see111 self-evident that only the ii1te1play between climate alld society that occur in the salne ti111e-fi1Une Call coincide in reality. Any references , for ii1stance, that co111bii1e fi1ture climate alld cun·ent society al·e counte1factual , as they can only coexist in our imaginat ion. Hov1ever, for the most palt we recall falnilial · images of cities alld ecosyste1ns when we iinagii1e the future 19 even when discu ssing projected climate chal1ge. This po ses a significal1t challenge for the people "vho 111ust asse ss negotiatii1g positions , goven 1ance goals and the sho1t-tenn decisions that shape the fi1ture of nations alld societies .
TI1ere is a hu ge range of weather events that make up clin1ate alld some region s naturally experience a grea ter ral1ge of extre1ne s thal1 others . Tue boundal ·ies of those extre111es in some sense define the edge s of nonnal cliinate ii1 allY location. With climate change brii1gii1g us new extreme s ofboth intensity and fi·equency in weather event s, it become s all iinaginative challenge to envision the climate of the future . Our understandin g of the li111its within which social syste ms
15 Si111011 Caney, Justice Beyond Borders : A Global Political Theo1y (Oxford and New York: Oxford University Press , 2005).
16 Ibid . 17 Jan F. Feen stra et al., Handbook on Methods for Cli,nate Change Impact Ass ess1nent and Adaptation
Strategies (UNEP, 1998). 18 W. Neil Adger et al.,' Are TI1ere Social Li111its to Adaptation to Cli111ate Change?', Climatic Change
93 (2009). 19 Daniel L. Schacter , Donna Rose Addis , and Randy L. Buckner , 'Remembe,ing the Past to huagine
the Futtu·e: The Prospective Brain ', Nature Reviews. Neuroscience 8, no . 9 (2007).
Reflecting Cli1nate Change linpa cts in Governance and Integrity ~s tem Design 109
and ecosysten1s operate will be challenged by a novel cliinate that delivers ecological surprises outside the bounds of 1node111 experience .20
Assu1ning a Stationary Climate
Political and operational stability are valuable asset s for a secure and prosperou s society. Goven1ance systems are designed to achie ve stability and reinforce it within social and econo111ic systeni s.21
TI1erefore , it is only natural to integrate this desire for stability in the design of policy illsh111ne11ts relating to the climate. TI1is is reflected in the wordillg of the UNFCCC , whose objective as stated ill Atticle 2, is ' ... stabilization of greenhouse gas concenti ·ations ill the atn1osphere at a level that would prevent dangerou s anthropogenic illte1ference with the cliinate systein ' .22 TI1is declare s the aiin to n1illiinize illte1ference with the cli1nate syste1n while at the saine time it enshrii1es ai1 explicit desire for ~tability. TI1is is a powerful state1nent as the foundati onal objective for global clin1ate goven1ai1ce ai1d 111ii1·01'S known ai1d understood govenunental goals that pe1meate co1111no11 practice. Unfo1tunately , GHG concentrations have contii1ued to increase sii1ce 1992 when atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO ,) reached 356.38 parts per n1illion, and 400.26 part s per million in Feb111aiy 2015.23 As projected· chai1ges ai·e surpas sed by cun ·ent observation s, the goal of stability will need to be reconsidered when applied to so111ethii1g as co1nplex as land-ahnosphere-ocean ii1teractio11s, especially now they have becon1e ii1tiinately linked with luunan systems .
TI1e aiin to suppo1t political and operatii1g stability is iinplicitly built illto mai1y goven1ance illsh11n1e11ts where ii1dicato1'S wai11 if con ·ective action is needed. For exalllple , the World Bank each year· updates a set of six \V'orldwide Goven1ance Indicator s: Voice and Accountability ; Political Stability ai1d Absence of Violence ; Goven1111e11t Effectivene ss; Regulato1y Quality ; Rule of Law , and Control of Con11ptio11.24 \.Vhile not the final word on assessillg the success of goven1111e11ts, they are useful mechai1isn1s to ii1dicate relati ve change s between nation s. As the cliinate systen1 begii1s to shift it will be a challenge to detennii1e what key Global Cli1nate Indicators (GCI) will assess relative risk to nation s ai1d population s from cliinate i111pacts. Conve1'Sely, it v1ill be equally ill1po1tai1t to gauge risks to the climate syste1n fi·on1 hu1nan activities.
Cliinate-related risks ai·e often identified ill relation to extre1ne weather ev ents such as drought , flood ai1d sto1111. When considering flood for exainple , there is ai1 inbuilt assun1ption iii the calculations used by water engilleers that future risks will reflect record s fi·on1 the pa~t.25 Evidence is now poii1tii1g, however , to raii1fall ai1d 111noff events that fall outside of previous boundai ·ies of natural extren1es, even when counted over long time-fi-aines. 26 This challenges the underlying
20 John W. Williams and Stephen T. Jackson, 'Novel Cli111ates,N o-Analog Comnuwitie s, and Ecological S1upri ses' , Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment 5, no. 9 (2007).
21 D. Carment , Y. Samy, and J. Lanchy, ' Transitioning Fragile States: A Sequencing Approach ', The Fletcher Fo,wn of World Affairs 37, 110. 2 (2013) .
22 'United N ations Fra111ework Convention 011 Climate Change ', rut. 2. 23 :tvia1u1a Loa Observato1y, 'C O
2 Now: C1u1·ent CO/, CO
2 Now, 22 March 2015, http://co2now.org/
Ctu1·ent-C02/C02- Now/ (accessed 13 April 2015). 24 Daniel Kaufinat111, Aatt Kraay, at1d Massimo :tviastnlZZi, 'Goven1a11ce Matters Vill : Aggregate and
Individual Goven1a11ce Indicator s, 1996-2008' , World bank policy research working paper , no. 4978 (2009). 25 Seth Westra et al., 'Adch·essing Cli111atic Non-Stationat-ity in the Assess111e11t of Flood Risk',
Aus tralian Journal of Water Resources 14, no. 1 (2010) . 26 Lucia De Stefano et al., ' Cli111ate Change and the Institutional Resilience of I11ten1atio11al River
Basins ', Journal of Peace Research 49, no. 1 (2012) .
110 Ethical Values and the Integrity of the Climate Change Regime
assu1nptio11 of stationarity, the notion that natural variability operates within stable boundarie s.27
TI1is would hold that unles s there is a significant shift in cliinate , even extre111e weather events would not exceed the extre1nes of the past. S0111e ii1dicator s are especially stable such as average g lobal te111perature. Mathe1natically it is derived fi·om so many mdividual observations that it takes significant mdividual shifts in the salne direction to mo ve this average. vVhen we see even r,1nall mcreases now in such stable ii1dicator s as the global-111eal1 te1nperature, we knovvthat the 111ostrecent records can only be due to Wal1nmg ii1 the cliinate. 28 While a stationaly cli1nate has been all explicit
assu1nptio11 ii1 water engiI1eeriI1g, the assu1nption of a st able cliinate also iinplicitly underpii1s mallY othe r aspects of ri sk asse ss1nent, mfi·ast111cture plal111ii1g and ii1stitutional goven1ance .
Consistent alld dependable ramfall patte111s have contributed to shapm g the develop1nent of societies alld cultures. Mal1y national alld tradii1g borde rs traditionally follow the courses of rivers , often leadii1g to the fonnation of !al·ge alld multicultural cities at rive r 1nouths . Societies hav e grown alld prospered al·ound traditional tiines of plantm g alld hal -vest that follow spring raii1s alld autu1nn fi·osts. TI1is has led trading relationships that underpm the global econo1nic syste111 to be shaped by the ebb and flow of seasonal produce and mal1ufactured goods. In a stab le clm1ate these patten1s operate between the boundal ·ie s of chal1ge experienced m the past. \¥bile we have alw ays experienced natural extre1nes of heat alld cold; of drought and flood ; there were !units beyond which these events did not pass . vVe know the extent of these boundalies through mst111mental records , scientific allalysi s, alld oral alld written knowledge passed down throu gh generations. TI1e assu1nptio11 of a stati onaly cliinate may not be explicitly expres sed , however it fo1ms all un seen
foundation for mallY of our long-tenn soci al, cultural alld economic practices . For over half a centu1y we have 1neasured gro,'l'th ii1 concenh·ations of cal·bon dioxide m the
ahn osphere eve1y yeal ·, with unii1ten11pted rec ords stalted ii1 1958 at Mauna Loa Observato1y in Ha waii. 29 Both the ongomg increase in CO
2 alld the 11.se in the speed of that increase have led the
Global Cal·bon Project (GCP) to request '1nore fi·equent assessment s of the state of the plal1et, and by m1plicatio11 abetterunderstandii1g of the fi1ture evolution of the cal·bon cycle , alld the require1nents for cliinate change 1nitigatio11 alld adaptation ' . 30 Significal1tly, the GCP refen ·ed to the cal-bon cycle as so1nethmg that is evolving into the fi1ture. Although a great deal of attention is paid to iI1creasiI1g chal1ges ii1 the cliinate syste1n , we ral·ely see 111ention of change s in the sii1ks and flovvs that al111ually cycle Petagraln s31 of cal·bon between land , sea and ail·. Over the past 50 yeal·s cal-bon sii1ks on land and ocean s have ah·eady been show n to reduce theii· efficiency m abso1-bii1g anthr opogen ic emi ssions , paltly ii1 respon se to changes in cli1nate alld ahnospheric C0
2•32 Challengmg m1pacts
of cliinate chal1ge on the mten ·elated cal·bon and lnunan syste1n s can include !al·ge alld possibly sudden shift s ii1 both the sources of cal·bon emi ssions and the usefi1h1ess of the sii1ks that naturally absorb these. 33 Concun·ently , hum all populations may face unprecedented iinpacts on do1nestic security , health and social ii1tegrity through weather-related iinpacts on the1nse lves alld theii·
27 Chris Milly et al., 'Stationarity Is Dead : Whither Water Manage111ent?', Science 319, no . 5863 (2008). 28 S. Rahin storf and D. Cotllllou, ' Increase of Extreme Event s in a Wruniing World ', Proceedings of the
National Academy of Sciences USA 108, no . 44 (2011) . 29 Fon·est M. Mims, Ha1vai'l's Manna Loa Observato1y: Fifty Years of Monitoring the Atmosphere
(Hawaii: U1iiversity of Hawaii Press, 2012). 30 Co1inne Le Le Quere et al., 'Global Cru·bon Budget 2013 ', Ea 1th Systeni Science Data 6 (2014) : 25 7. 31 1 Peta gr3111 carbon (1 PgC) =l Gigatonne cru·bon (1 GtC) = 1012 kgC . 32 :tvlichael R. Raupach et al., ' The Declining Uptake Rate of Atmo sphe1ic C0
1 by Lancl ancl Ocean
Sinks', Biogeosciences 11, no . 13 (2014). 33 Brendan Mackey et al., 'Untangling the Confusion aro1mcl Lmd Carbon Science and Cli1nate Change
Reflecting Cli1nate Change linpacts in Governance and Integrity ~s tem Design 111
traditional trading prutners. 34 TI1is is especially difficult to address in designing cru·bon and cli111ate goven1ru1ce and integrity systems that will operate in anon-stationruy clilnate system .
Assu1ning a Non-Stationary Cfunate
Knowil1g that the clilnate has struted to beco1ne 11011-stationruy,35 we 1nust asse ss what ilnpact this will have on other syste1ns. Our need to understand what it 1neans to have a stationruy clilnate is in response to prepat·il1g to adapt to the ilnpacts of anon-stationruy clitnate. On so1ne level all of the mitigation to CO? emi ssions illto the fi1ture whether achieved through mte1national agreen1ent or voluntruy offsetting 36 will include atl adaptation response to clilnate itnpacts. Even people who do not acknowledge clilnate chru1ge is affected by hu1nru1 activities ru·e struting to make adjustn1ents to 1nore and different extreme weather events, new policy insti111nents ru1d the feat· of cli111ate change itnpacts. 37 TI1e divide between mitigation ruid adaptation cru111ot be n1amtail1ed now that both 1nust operate while the clilnate is changil1g . As defined by the Intergove1n1nental Pruiel on Clilnate Change (IPCC ), adaptation includes adjustlnents in ecological , social or econon1ic systems in response to actual or expected clilnatic stitnuli ru1d theil · effects. 38 Ho"vever , there ru·e a host ofbru11er s to succe ssfi1l n1anagen1ent of clilnate ilnpacts . Co1nn1011 obstacles to adaptation that have significant ethical di1nension s illclude ' co111petil1g prioritie s that place de111ru1ds on scru·ce resources , pove1ty that lilnits capacity to adapt , lack of knowledge , weak institutions, degraded natural resources, illadequate il1fi11st111cture, insufficient finruicial resources , disto1ted incentives and poor goven1ru1ce' .39 It has been ru-gued that these social lin1its to adaptation are contil1gent on four pivotal aspects : ethics , knowledge , risk and culture. 40 In tenn s of values ru1d ethics , these so called ' litnits ' are fi·runed as 1nutable and open to mru1agement through explicit ru1d deliberative renegotiation that ackno"vledges shifts ill values , acceptable risk s ru1d the distribution of power. Gove1nance vvill need to both guide ruid respond to these chru1ges.
One consequence of a non-stati onruy clilnate is the increase ill unprecedented weather events . Severe stonns , flash floods ru1d wildfires ru·e natural hazru·ds that elicit disaster respon ses within ruid between nations . When identified as acts of nature these ev ents catlllot be seen as the responsibility of ru1y one gove1nment , although the effectivenes s of civ il prepru·edness ru1d response cru1 be questioned. The global distribution of exposure to severe weather events will chru1ge as new patten1s en1e1-ge through unprecedented i1npacts. Unprecedented heat wa ves caused an estilnated 70,000 fatalitie s across Weste1n Europe in 2003 ru1d in south-easten1 Australia led to
34 IPCC , Cli1nate Change 2014: linpacts, Adaptation, and Vi.tlnerability. Working Group II Swn1na1y for Policyniakers, ed. Christopher B. Field, et al. (Ca1nbridge, UK and New York USA: Cainbridge University Pre ss, 2014).
35 Milly et al., 'Stationaiity Is Dead : Whither Water Manage1nent? '; Westra et al., ' Adcb·essing Cliinatic Non-Stationaiity in the Assessn1ent of Flood Risk' .
36 Liese Coulter , Pep Canadell , and Shobhakar Dhakal , Gcp Repo1t No. 6 Carbon Reductions and Offsets (Canben·a: Global Carbon Project , 2007 ).
37 Joseph Reser and Janet K. Swint , 'Adapting to md Copmg with the TI1reat and IInpacts of Clin1ate Chmge ', The American Psychologist 66,110. 4 (2011) .
38 Bany Smit et al., ' An Anato1ny of Adaptation to Cli1nate Chmge and \ Tari ability ', Cl1inatic Change 45 (2000).
39 Jan1es Adejuwon et al.,' A Stitch m Ti1ne: General Lessons fi·on1 Specific Cases ', in Climate Change and Adaptation (Hoboken : Routledge , 2012) : 3.
40 Adger et al., ' Are There Social Lin1its to Adaptation to Clitnate Change ?'
112 Ethical Values and the Integrity of the Climate Change Regime
peak temperature s of over 45 °C associated with over 370 death s early in 2009.41 Urb an flooding is associated with prope1ty loss and high costs in infi·astJ11cture repair. In anon-stati onruy clin1ate new method s ru·e needed to mru1age the increased unce1tainty ru1d risks associated with floods .42 There is grov,ing literature that link s clilnate change with illcrea sed threats to luunan health through malru·ia, dengue and cholera , and to the ve1y vvay of life in coastal zones ru1d Sma ll Is lru1d State s.43
Syria and the Challenge of the Stateless
Twenty-first centu1y societies ru·e illcreasin gly entwined with citizens of other countJ·ies through frunily n1igration , inte111ational exchange of food ru1d goods , ru1d illte1related econo1nic , comnu1nication and tJ·anspo1t sys te1ns. This illcreased global collllectivity continues to accelerate the svvift pace of social ru1d technological chru1ge that chru·acterized the twentieth centu1y. Global mobility has led to 1nany frunilie s with grown children and grandchildren spread ru·ound the world. It challenge s the co1nfo1til1g insulation of national border s when those clo sest to us live fru· away. Additionally , citizens with strong physical ru1d frunilial attachments to one place may be unwillil1g to allocate resource s for 'outsiders ' whe n local do1nestic stressors and threats ru·e heightened. 44 As the needs of society chru1ge in response to novel aJ1d pos sibly ab1upt stresso rs fi·o111 cli111ate ru1d other factor s, moral attitudes will be reshaped ru1d social values renegotiated. Ho w we express basic humru1 v alues will be affected by ilnpacts fi·o111 cli111ate related chaJ1ges that will be felt differently dependil1g on location, culture , belief s, resources ru1d percei ve d vu h1erability. 45
There ru·e recent exrunple s where so111e factors in the shifting clilnate syste111 have challenged val ues aJ1d co1npromi sed integrity where it was already weakened . Drou ght related to cli111ate chru1ge is ru1 acknowledged factor in the Syriru1 civil wru· that entered its fou1th yeru· ill 2015, displacin g 1nillions, both illten1ally aJ1d in neighbouring countries .46 Rural Syriru1s crowded into cities aJ1d peri-urbru1 ru·eas when crops failed ru1d livestock died duril1g a three-yeru· drought that was the 111ost severe since insti111nental records have been kept. 47 This added to existin g vuh1erabilitie s fi·o111 ru1 influx of Iraqi refugees , gove 1n1nent failure ru1d poor water 1nanage1nent. The Syriru1 conflict de111011stJ·ates the con1plex diinension s of ilnpacts that CaJl catalyse tJ·ru1sfonnational chru1ges ill vuhlerable syste1ns . The people of Syria vvho were host s to Iraqi refugees have become refu gees to their neighbours , especially Lebru1on. Initially offering sanc turuy , over tiine Lebanese generosity ha s ill pla ces hru·dened illto resenbnent as local job s go to poorly paid Syriru1s while food , wa ter aJ1d safety becon1e scru·ce. While Syrian s in LebaJ1on have access to basic services through institution s,43 their n1edical need s illclude more thru1 conflict-related phy sical ru1d mental tJ·au1na. In add ition , mru1y SyriaJ1 refugees crune fi·o111 1niddle-class neighbourhood s ru1d need
41 1Yiargaret E. Loughnan et al., A Spatial Vulnerability Analysis of Urban Populations During Extre1ne Heat Events in Australian Capital Cities (Gold Coast: National Clitnate Change Adaptation Research Facility , 2013) .
42 Westra et al.,' Addressing Cliinatic Non-Stationarity ill the Assessment of Flood Risk '. 43 Caney, Justice Beyond Borders: A Global Political Theo1y. 44 Ibid . 45 Hans-1Yiartin Fiissel, 'Vulnerability : A Generally Applicable Conceptual Frainework for Clin1ate
Change Research ', Global Environmental Change 17, no. 2 (2007) . 46 IFRC , ' Syiia C1isis - IFRC' , Inten1ational Federati on of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies , 6
Mai·ch 2015 , http ://www.ifrc.org/syiia-cris is.national. 47 Colin P. Kelley et al., 'C litnate Change ill the Fertile Crescent and hnplications of the Recent Syiian
Drought ', Proceedings of the National Acade111y of Sciences 112, no. 11 (2015). 48 UNHCR , 'UNHCR Global Appeal 2015 Update -Lebanon ' (2015).
Reflecting Cli1nate Change linpacts in Governance and Integrity ~s tem Design 113
treahnent for 'chronic conditions such as astluna and diabetes , as well as cardiovascular and kich1ey disease s' .49 The situation of Syrian citizens de111onstrates how co111plex levels of stability , prosperity and goven1ance can ~wiftly change , whate ver the ti·iggers.
The estin1ated tens of thousands of stateless people in Lebanon alone ren1ind us that nationstates do not represent all of the world 's populations . TI1e global stateless population has already grown to an estimated ten n1illion people. so To put this in perspective , half of nations globally hav e less than ten million citizens. TI1is greatly challenges the context for national integrity or con textintegrity of nations where exte111al forces and pressures do not suppo1t the nonns and values found within their borders . TI1e continued presence of stateles s persons within national borders inte1nalizes outside pressures and creates anu111ber of challenges : to honour con1111itinents n1ade in easier ti111es (consistency -integrity); to reflect citizen more s, desire s and fears (coherence -integrity ); and to deal with nations who work to shift the burden of the stateles s onto others (con text-integrity).
ca .. bon Gover·nance and Integ .. ity Adapting to Cllinate Change
Built on the foundation s of the UN proce ss, carbon gove1nance has been characterized as an environ1nental issue requiring n1anagen1ent of global stock s and flows of carbon to the at1nosphere. TI1is was the pritnruy focu s of global gove1nru1ce when actual impact s on the cli1nate system were seen as son1ething that might still be avoided . TI1e initial ai1ns to stabilize atinospheric cru·bon dioxide in ru1 equitable 1nanner that does not disadvantage econo1nic prosperity re1nains a core goal. However, GHG s have already begun to affect the clitnate syste111 in ways that challenge our conceptions of nonnal weather. vVe 111ust now consider how chru1ges in patten1s of cli111ate will affect the social and economic syste1ns that developed withit1 a stable climate envelope. Ifwe see the boundru·ies of weather exti·emes as dynrunic rather thru1 stationruy we ru·e faced with unfruniliru· challenges that will introduce nevv levels of instability behveen nations, throughout econo1nies and within cultures. Inte111ational gove1nance proces ses to reduce GHGs in the atlnosphere nu1st operate while the cliinate is chru1git1g.
Much gov en1ru1ce will be reactive to natural disasters ru1d a likely ii1crease in conflict , both within national border s and with neighbour s ru1d ti·adii1g prutners. Gove1nance that is swiftly chru1ging 1nay not reflect core ethical values that have been long held by societie s. To shape a future world that reflects higher- order thii1kmg ru1d deeply held v alues , gl obal goven1ru1ce will need to inco1porate prmciples that ru·e well suited to fi1ture challenges . Existii1g prii1ciples that cru1 guide gove1nance in a chru1ging world ru·e en1bodied in the precepts of adaptive goven1ru1ce that has been developed fi·o1n envit·onmental mru1agement to ii1clude economic and social ~y ~tems. Maintaining ii1tegrity ru1d global gove1nance ~ystems "viii requii ·e explicit agree1nents ru1d practices m an mcreasii1gly conflicted ru1d resource-constrained envii·onn1ent. To design ethical and mtegrity systen1s for the fi1ture that may be adopted quickly they 1nust be based on already agreed hu1nru1itru·iru1 prii1ciples . This section will discuss prit1ciples of adapti ve gove111ance ru1d humru1itru·iru1 values ru1d ~11ggest some practices that 1nay be usefitl to 1naintaii1 the iiitegrity of global gov en1ru1ce in a chru1ging climate.
49 :tviedecins Sans Frontieres, ' Syl'ia I Medecins Sans Frontiere s (MSF) Inte1uational', 10 March 2015, http://www.n1sf.org/syl'ia (accessed 10 March 2015).
50 UNHCR, 'UNHCR - Stateless People Figtu·es', 10 March 2015 , http://www.unhcr.org/ pages/49c3646c26.htntl (10 :tviarch 2015) .
114 Ethical Values and the Integrity of the Climate Chang e Regime
Principles: Adaptive Governance
Adaptive goven1ance is afi ·81newo1k for 811alysing the foundations of 1nultilevel goven1811ce 1nodes that have grown out of adaptive 1nanage111ent principles founded in social-ecological systetns.51
Explicitly integrative, adaptive goven1ance dravvs 0111n811y discipline s and reflects systems thinking that accounts for dynlUllic changes over time. 52 Adaptive goven1ance is increasingly reflected in both social and econotnic co111mon-pool gove1n811ce.53 A focus on both goven1ing co111mon resources and the inbuilt assu111ptions of inten·elated syste111s 111ake adaptive gove1nance useful to co111bine nationalistic fi·81ning and global interactions in 811 evolving proce ss. TI1e practices of institutional diversity, nested function s 811d analytical deliberation that underpin robust localized goven1811ce 81'e also well suited to adaptive goveinance. 54 While adaptive goven1ance is not an end in itself, it offers afunctional approach to m811age global carbon reductions and reduce losses fi·o111 clilnate ch811ge.55
Institutions that 81·e fi·ont-111nners ill adaptive goven1811ce rese81·ch include Sweden 's Stockhohn Resilience Centre and C811ada's fute111ational fustitute for Sustainable Devel opment (IISD). Both offer extensive resources that C81l guide the application of adaptive govetnance p1inciples to issues sp811ning local to global bound81·ies 811d im111ediate to long-tenn considerati ons.
Principles: Humanitarian Values
Gove1n811ce fi·ainev,orks operate first to adch-ess civil responsibilities and exchat1ges, enforcil1g ethical standat·ds only when they ai·e e111bodied withill the la"vs themselves. However, the 111echat1iStns at1d procedures of 811 integ1ity syste111 ai·e designed to ensure co1npliance "vith 1nillilnu1n ethical st811d81·ds at1d pro111ote the pur!>11it of ethical behaviout:56 For this reason, an explicit integrity syste111 offers a unifying force to global catbon goven1ance while allowing for differences in existil1g and evolving do111estic 1ules of lav1. An integrity systetn will need a strong foundation to persist in the face of ongoil1g shifts ill relative vulnerabilities at1d capacities that impact tights and responsibilities. The hu111at1itai·ian pril1ciples that undetpin the futen1ational Red Cross and Red Crescent (ICRC) and the UN Millenniu111 Development Goals offer established guidat1ce. TI1e United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Orgat1ization (lJNESCO) have recognized the i111po1tance of ethics focused on :.1at1dat·d settil1g, capacity buildil1g and raisil1g awai·eness. TI1ese lead to practical applications ill developillg illten1ationally agreed 1101mative fiatnework s to guide policy-1nakil1g, enhancing the
51 Stockhohn Resilience Centre, 'Adaptive Gove111ance - Stockhohn Resilience Centre', 28 Jlvlarch 2015 , http ://www. stockholmre sili enc e. org/21 /research/re search-theme s/ steward ship/ a daptive-g overuance-. html (accessed 28 March 2015).
52 Steve Hatfield -Dodds, Rohan Nelson , ancl David Cook,' Adaptive Gove111ance - an Inb·ocluction, ancl Implications for Public Policy ' (paper presented at the 51 st Annual conference of the Australian Ag1iculttu·al and Resotu ·ce Economic s Society, Queenstown NZ , 13-16 Februa1y 200 7) .
53 Eniily Boyd and Cad Folke , 'Adapting Institt1tions, Adaptive Goven1ance and Co111plexity: An Inb·ocluction', in Adapting Institutions : Governance, Complexity, and Social-Ecological Resilience (Cambtidge U1iiversity Press, 2011).
54 TI1on1as Dietz et al., 'Household Actions Can Provide a Behavioral Wedge to Rapiclly Reduce US Carbon Eniissions ', Proceedings of the National A cade111y of Sciences 106, no. 44 (2009).
55 Ronald D. Bnu111er ancl An1ancla H. Lynch , Adaptive Governance and Cliniate Change (Boston: Ame1ican Jlvleteorological Society, 2010) .
56 Andrew Alexandra and Setuna s Miller , Law, Ethics and Governance : Integri ty ~stems for Occupations (Fan1ha111, UK and Btu-lington, USA : Ashgate , 2010).
Reflecting Cli1nate Change linpa cts in Governance and Integrity ~s tem Design 115
ethic s infi·ast111cture in countt·ies to better cope with the ethical issues and suppo11ing public debate to pro1note a better understanding of the moral choices available .57
Practice
Robust , flexible and n1onitored policies are needed to address the non-stationruy nature of enviro111ne11tal syste1ns, now and into the fiiture .58 The design ru1d application of these policies can be built on established principles of adaptive gove1nance and humru1itru·iru1 considerations. Five practices in pruticular that will become increasingly in1po1tru1t ru·e discussed below. TI1ey ru·e to : integrate re-evaluation ; identify triggers ; i11co1porate ne"v knowledge; make values tradeoffs tt·anspru·ent; ru1d honour discontinuity. If these ru·e instituted, reflecting the principles of both adapti ve gove1nru1ce and lu11nanitru·iru1 values , they 111ay provide in1po1trult guidance for generations to co1ne.
Integ rate re-evaluation As ongoing in1pacts of cliina te chru1ge are experienced differently ru·ound the world , the adaptive capacity of some local actors will chru1ge 111ore quickly than other s. TI1is v,ill be tn1e acros s scales fi·on1 local to continent-wide ru1d will affect population s not neces sru·ily bounded by national borders. The relati ve status beh:veen ii1stitutional actors and nations that are detennii1ed by eco110111ic prosperity , political stability ru1d population security will be affected by these iinpacts. TI1erefore , institutii1g an ongoii1g process that re-ev aluates both expo sure to shocks ru1d capacity to adapt will beco1ne ii1creasingly nece ssruy.
Evaluati on criteria for UN asse ssn1e11t of 1ne1nber status as a least developed counby begru1 in the 1970s. Catego1y criterion ii1clude: infru1t mo11ality; ho,:vwell feel is the populati on; and level s of education ru1d literacy , as well as vulnerability , ra ted in tenns of exposure to natural ru1d econon1ic hazru·ds and experienced shock s such as eco11on1ic failure or natural disaster .59 The process to re-evaluate the status is called 'graduation ', a label that iinplies a lii1eru· progression towru·ds maturity ru1cl a desired goal. However, there have been ve1y few 'graduation s ' , which ru·e rewarded by reduced suppo1t ru1cl ii1creasecl responsibility. To reflect the dynrunic operating envii ·o11n1ent of a non-stationary cliinate , evaluation procedures such as these need to be reconsidered . Both the mind-set of the po stcolonial era ru1d the acknowledg1nent of contii1uous change require new mechru1isn1s that allow for ongoii1g re-evaluation where chru1ge is not explicitly expected iii only one directi on and iinproven1ents do not cotne at such a high cost.
Jnco1porate new knowledge Much i11te111ational gove111ance is based on a scientific 1nru1age1nent pru·adig1n that is often criticized for not valuing cultural and indigenou s knowledge . While it is iinpo11ru1t to recognize traditional way s of knowing , there is a great deal about the cliinate syste1n that has only been understo od through ii1sb11111ental records , satellite data and extensive cotnputational 1noclellii1g. It is a challenge to reseru·chers and policy-111akers to u11derstru1d ru1d co1n1nu11icate the n1etaphoric
57 Henk A.M.J. ten Have, 'Une sco's Activities ill Ethics' , Science and Engineering Ethics 16, 110. 1 (2010) .
58 Daniel E. Schindler and Ray Hilbon1, 'Prediction , Precaution , and Policy under Global Change', Science 347 , 110.6225 (2015) .
59 Alonso, Co1tez, and Klasen, 'LDC and Other Counhy Groupings: How Useful Are Ctu1·ent Approaches to Classify Cotu1hies ill a More Heterogeneous Developing World?'
116 Ethical Values and the Integrity of the Climate Change Regime
and analytical aspects of clitnate change.60 A more collaborative approach is needed to integrate adaptation science and practice as new knowledge and understandings become available.
Frequently , the explicit goal of e11vit·o11n1e11tal 111ru1age111e11t is to restore systems to a prefe1red state fi·o111 the past , generally assu111it1g a stable cli111ate. h1 the Florida Everglades , 111ru1age111e11t effo11s to retu1n these wetland syste111s to ru1 earlier state without considering cli111ate llllpacts 011 available water will not 111ake the syste1n 1nore adaptable to cun·ent and future condition s. Instead, an explicit proces s of 'Adaptive Restoration Plannit1g' has been proposed to reflect the influence of cli1nate chru1ge scenru·ios on restoration effo11s.61 TI1is is an exrunple ,were new kno"vledge provides real benefits it1 plru111ing to adapt. Where local or state govenunents are reluctru1t to apply new knowledge that would benefit the greater co111mu11ity, explicit integrity ru1d ethical systems may provide transpru·ent proce sses to 111ove fo1wru·d.
Reseru·ch is also offering avenues to reflect anon-stationruy clitnate it1 gove111ance i11st111111e11ts. Ruhl ru1d Salz1nru1 suggest a three-step assess1nent process relatillg anon-stati onruy clitnate to the 11ile of law.62 Tuey consider : firstly, the envelope of v ru·iability for the key attributes that define the fields in which the law operates ; secondly, to what extent will the traditional envelope of vru·iability be disto1ted; and finally, to what extent will the stationarity-based cotnponents oftheo1y and practice need to be altered or even abru1do11ed. TI1ese highly technical questions however , cru1 only be ru1swered fi1lly by those with practical experience, who have a real u11derstru1ding of how ntles of law affect , ru1d ru·e affected by, the situations they ru·e 1nerult to goven1. TI1is requires substantial give-ru1d-take between acade1nics, policy-1nakers and affected societie s over tune .
Make values trade-offs transparent An it1creasit1gly dynrunic syste1n, not expected to retun1 to a stable state it1 the neru· fi1ture, will sustain so1ne losses that cru111ot be regait1ed. TI1e valuation of vulnerable it1fi11stn1cture ru1d envit·o111ne11tal habitat s is not purely an eco110111ic equation. Social and cultural values of historic mo11u111ents, natural wonder s ru1d religious centres have to be considered as well as the finru1cial costs and benefits they 111ay represent. Levees ru1d druns that protect assets that ru·e highly valued by some, n1ay dive11 floodwaters to ru1other ru·ea disadvru1tagit1g other populations. As difficult choices have to be made of what to save fi·o1n rising waters ru1d 'l,,vhere to invest it1 flood protection, making the value trade-offs explicit is essential to suppo11 infonned discussions ru1d gain social suppo11 as prut of the decision-1naking proce ss. Othe1wise, unilltended consequences of those significru1t investtnents may create unacceptable losses ill the long te1m.
Vulnerability to clitnate change itnpacts and the consequent need for adaptation has been com111only fi·runed by inequities of the past. Nations assessed as less developed have an existit1g fi·runework for foreign aid that is chru1ging as pay111e11ts fi·o1n adaptation fi111ds have so1netitnes replaced tt11ditio11al aid pay111ents. fute1national adaptation fi1ndit1g that is modelled on past systems for foreign aid cru1 replicate co111111on bru1-iersto effectively directit1g the assistru1ce. Fundit1g for least developed ru1d pruticulru·ly vulnerable Small Islru1d States has been criticized as having insufficient focus on increasing the adaptive capacity of local gove1n1nents; on addressit1g underlyit1g social
60 Benjanun L. Pre ston , Johanna Mustelin , and Megan C. lYialoney, ' Cli1nate Adaptation Hetuistics and tl1e Science/Policy Divide ', Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change 20 , no . 3 (2015).
61 1YiaithaNtu1gesser etal. , 'Potential Effect s of Climate Change 011F101ida's Everglades ' ,Environ1nental Management (2014).
62 Jolu1 B. Rtdd and J a1nes Salz111an 'Clin1ate Change lYieets tlie Law of tlie Horse', Duke La,v Journal 62, no. 5 (2013).
Reflecting Cli1nate Change linpacts in Governance and Integrity ~s tem Design 117
issues that contribute to vulne rabili ty, and on valuing th e role of cultural kn owledge in dete1n1ining acceptable adaptive choices for conimunitie s.63
Identify triggers for shared responsibilities Seve re v1eather events are felt locally and mu st be re sponded to by local resources in th e first instance. \Vithout guidan ce, such as GCI to inco1porate new expe ctation s of change in the extent and fi·equency of these events , there is a tenden cy to rebuild settle111ents and i.11fi·ast111cture to suit the cond ition s of the past. However , ab111pt and so1netin1es expen sive cor,ts to society through widespread flooding for instance, can also act as a trigge r for leatning and adaptive beh avio ur that m ay help to reduce cost s in the future. 64 111ere is wid e vat·iat ion of national pr actices to suppot t local gove nunen ts to 1nat1age clitnate related disaster s such as w ildfir e, flood and drought. Trigger poin ts designed into goven1ance at·chitecture can be used to re-e val uate what , and how, responsibilities at·e shat·ed acro ss tier s of goven un ent to respond to locally recun'ing i1npacts. Trigge r poit1ts cat1 provide a useful connection to an explicit integrity syste1n as they cat1 be dete11nined in advat1ce of a crisis and be obje ctively 111011itored iii te1n1s of rights and responsibilities.
Rights and responsibilities across tiers of govenunent 1nay shift in response to severe weather even ts . In 2011 , after signifi cant floodin g iii Queenslat1d cost atl estitnated $30 billion iii datnage s, the federal gove1nment itnposed a tax levy on all Australiat1s and run ended Australia 's Natural Di saster Relief and Re cove 1y At1·angement s (NDRRA) to requit·e sta tes to insure then· own losses.65
TI1is level of floodit1g was unprecedented iii n1any at·eas of the state and inr,tigated a swift polic y response. Present day plat1ning could dete1n1it1e what might be significat1t triggers and appro pri ate response s in th e future at1d allow gove nun ents to be less reacti ve .
TI1ere w ill also be tensi ons across national boundat ·ies that w ill chall enge h·aditional rel ation ships . Th ere at·e 276 inten1ational river basins g lobally at1d 24 of those, n1ait1ly iii 1101then1 and sub- Saliat·at1 Afi·ica, have been identified as being at high hydro-p olitical ri sk fro111 chat1ges in wat er availabili ty. Considering clitn ate chat1ge pr ojec tions to 2050 , that nu111ber rises to 60 trat1snati onal river basit1s at ri sk of being involved iii conflict over wa ter resources iii 1nuch 1nore geog raphi cally dispersed areas .66 Gait1ing a better und erstat1ding of what 111ay be key h·iggers for chat1ge fi·om clitnate itnpacts and reflectit1g those iii cun·ent gove1nance 111echat1is1ns cat1 lead to more ti1nely at1d effective respon ses to change.
Honour discontinuity So111e changes will not have eas ily discen1ible tri ggers at1d m ay not follow established patte111s of tran sition. TI1is need for an i111proved capacity to deal with surp11sing event s leads us to exrunine what val ue n1ay be found in discontinuity . Some future scenat ·io planning is building on th e concep t that inst ead of seeing the opposite of ' fragile' as ' robu st', we n1ight assess the prefen ·ed state as ' anti-fi ·agile '67 or advat1taged by dis111ptio n. R ecen t effo1ts and scenat·io planning use
63 Natasha Ktu1.1ppu and Reenate Willie, 'Ban'iers to Reducing Cli1nate Enhanced Disaster Risks in Least Developed Cotu1by-Sn1all Islands tlu·ough Anticipato1y Adaptation', Weather and Climate Extr e1nes (2014}.
64 Mike Hulme, 'Abtupt Clin1ate Change: Can Society Cope? ' , Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series A: Mathematical, Physical and Enginee ring Science s 361, no. 1810 (2003).
65 Ruth Biggs, 'Paying for Disaster Recovery : Ausb·alia's NDRRA and the United States ' NFIP ', Au.stralian Journal of E1nergency Management 27 , no. 2 (2012).
66 De Stefano et al., 'Clitn ate Change and the Institutional Resilience ofh1te111ational River Basins'. 67 Nassin1 Nichola s Taleb, Anti -Frag ile : Ho1,v to Live in a World We Don t Understand (Allen Lane ,
118 Ethical Values and the Integrity of the Climate Change Regime
this to deal with increased uncettainty and n1ove away fi·on1 the need to clearly identify causes in 1nanaging co1nplex sih1ation s. 68
Extended periods of discontinuity threaten the goal of stability that unde1pins n1uch longte11n gove1nance . Managing discontinuity will be essential to reduce the fi·agile nature of states in tran sition. Inten1ational gove1nance and suppo1t will be 1nost usefi1l when it supp otts inte1nal processe s of establishing a new sequence of authority , legitiinacy and capacity. 69 However , 1nov ii1g through this proce ss of fi·agmentation and rebuildii1g to addre ss new cii·cu1nstances n1ay inv olve a series of significant tran sitions over tiine. TI1is discontinuity will affect nation 's right s and responsibilities regardii1g carbon goven1ance agreen1ents across all levels of development stah1s. ,ve will need to rethii1k the gove1nance approach to fi·agility in tenns of nation-states and statele ss populations. A synergistic approach to fi11gn1entation n1ay be a positive option. On a practical level thi s could be initiated by ii1creasing policy synergies , better integrating proces ses across goven1ance 1nechani stns and reducing duplications. 70 To address the goal of buildii1g long-tetm and effective clin1ate goven1ance , a persisting ii1tegrity systen1 will have to honour differences , while providii1g a guide for consistency ii1 new goven1ance architecture.
Conclusion
It will be a conceptual as well as a practical challenge to understand and address the iinplications of a non-stationary cliinate system into the con1ing decades and , likely , cenh1ries. The goven1ance of hun1an interaction s v,ith the cru·bon ru1d cliinate syste1n will itself be affected by clin1ate in1pacts and then· consequences. The design and i1nple1nentation of gove111ance ii1stru1nents ov er the next decade to reflect this nevv understru1ding will shape the trajecto1y of fi1h1re 1nitigation of atlnospheric ru1d oceanic CO
2. Concu1Tently, goven1ance will shape adaptation priorities ru1d
investtnent that will influence how societies and cultures n1ake these tran sitions . Building on the principles of adaptive gove111ance and luunanitru·ian values offers already agreed foundations ru1d sotne welcome continuity to fi1h1re scenru·ios 1nru·ked by continuou s ru1d unev en chru1ge. An explicit integrity syste1n that has significru1t inten1ational agreen1ent will be essential to maintam ru1y degree of equity when populations and even nations ru·e fighting for survi val. Practices ru·e needed that: suppo1t continuou s re-e v aluation ; seek out triggers for change ; integrate new knowledge ii1 decision-n1aking ; com1nunicate potential value s' trade-offs ; and honour discontinuity. TI1e mrultle of afi1nctioning global integrity syste1n will need to be woven of stt·ong and si1nple threads into a whole cloth that is broad , inclusive and flexible.
68 Jan1es Derbyshire and George Wright , 'Preparing for the Future: Developtnent of an Antifragile Methodology TI1at Co1nple1nents Scenario Planning by Omitting Causation ', Technological Fore casting and Social Change 82, no. 1 (2014).
69 Cannent , San1y, and Landty , ' Transitioning Fragile States: A Sequencing Approach '. 70 Frank Biennann et al., 'TI1e Fragmentation of Global Gove1nance Architectures : A Framework for
Analysis', Global Environ,nental Politics 9 , no. 4 (2009).
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