Geofcmm, Vol. 18, No. 1, pp. 89401. 1987 F’rinted in Great Britain

~1~7185/87$3.~+0.~ Pergamon Journals Ltd.

Regional Growth Nuclei

SHAUL KRAKOVER* and SHABTAY DOVER,? Beer Sheva, Israel

Abstract: This article analyses, both theoretically and empirically, the process of agglomeration associated with the most basic components of regional development. The growth of these basic components, denoted as ‘condensation nuclei’ and ‘growth nuclei’, are evidence of the power of forces of ‘planning from below’, working for development through local initiative or by attracting private investors and public institutions to a previously undeveloped region. The formation of the growth nuclei is likened to the formation of crystals in a saturated solution. Opportunities for growth of any new activity in a virgin region is tied to the accumulation of entrepreneurial and financiai resources. Only when these reach the point of saturation will the deveIopmenta1 effort be crowned with success, and will new institutions and factories be established in the region. Resources then must be earmarked to ensure that the new initiatives are firmly established, and thus their presence lowers the ‘concentration’ of the solution. Therefore, the creation of additional initiatives slows down, or is halted altogether. According to this model, the growth rate will increase only after developmental pressures have accumulated sufficiently to push the region once again to the point of saturation. In contrast, however, to the chemical mechanism which usually operates in a closed system, the mechanism of growth nuclei formation operates in an open system, thus permitting leakages of human and financial resources. The development of growth nuclei were studied in four locations in the Israeli Negev region. In each of these locations, an incubation period for the idea, a certain resource which had reached the point of saturation and varying rates in the establishment of additional enterprises were found to exist.

The process of regional planning may be exercised on a broad scale, with general master-plans down to local detailed planning programs. Such planning may be comprehensive in design, specifying every detail at the outset, or it may be of the incremental type. The latter sets forth a general outline and the details are filled in during periodic revisions before each new stage is implemented. Another option is to engage in active planning (FRIEDMANN, 1973), where research is carried out in conjunction with implementation in order to achieve well- defined aims. ’

These kinds of planning procedures reflect tradi- tional approaches of ‘planning from above’, albeit

*Department of Geography, Ben-Gurion University of the Negev, Beer Sheva 84105, Israel. TThe J. Blaustein Institute for Desert Research, Sde Boqer Campus 84990, Israel.

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with various levels of input from the target popula- tion. In this article, we intend to show that the dynamic pulses of ‘planning from below’ are of utmost importance even in the most preliminary stages of regional planning (STQHR, 1981). The value of such pulses stems from the fact that people living in the developing region tend to be better able to evaluate various local resources and the dynamics involved in their development. Thus, it is probable that decisions made by local people concerning intra-regional allocation of resources would be economically more efficient and socially more beneficial, not only to the local population, but also to the national economy. This is not to say that ‘planning from below’ is an alternative to ‘planning from above’, but rather, in STQHR’s (1981, p. 40) words “reality will always be a combination of these two elements”. There are many potential opportunities at various stages of planning for combinations of planning from below and planning

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from above practices (for insance, see WU and IP, 1981). This article presents the preliminary dev- opmental stages of what we call ‘growth nuclei’, it examines their theoretical foundation, and reviews information on four such growth nuclei located in the Negev desert. The interplay of developmental forces from below with those of established in- stitutions from above are demonstrated in each example.

At various times. and without any apparent connec- tion to the planning process, we witness initiatives in commercial, industrial or service sectors entering a new region. Such pioneering initiatives might

come in the guise of a store, a petrol station. a factory, an educational institution. or other enter- prises which necessitate a daily presence of custom-

ers, workers or clientele. Such an initiative might be located in the inter-urban periphery, at a cross- roads, in a rural settlement or even within a city, given that the initiative introduces something new to the area (ERICKSON and GENTRY, 19%). Examples of such pioneering initiatives are: a factory being located in an agricultural area, a department store in an industrial area, a high-tech factory among traditional factories. or the first hotel in a previously non-tourist area.

Such initiatives, which may or may not be part of a planning program, are an indication of the presence of certain submerged socio-economic forces. Some- times the appearance of a single initiative is enough to quieten these forces for a time. In other instances. however, the success of an initiative serves as an impetus for the establishnlent nearby of other enterprises. We wiI1 define the first pioneering initiative in a new area as a ‘condensation nucleus’. If such a nucleus results in additional initiatives being established, the agglomeration will be termed a ‘growth nucleus’.

‘Growth nucleus’ is used to describe a group of separate enterprises located either within a town or in the countryside. This term pertains to phe- nomena smaller in scope than that of a ‘growth center’ which is usually ascribed to a whole town (DAR~~NT, 1969). In addition, processes of ‘backwash’ and ‘spread’ which are associated with growth centers are not applicable in the case of the growth nucleus, at least not in its early stages. Although a growth nucleus is, by definition, the site for the concentration of further initiatives, the concept OCR se does not consider the sources of such initiatives. The initiatives which create the nuclei of

~eoforum/~~olume 18 Number Ii1987

condensation and growth may come from either private or public sectors, from inside or outside the

region, being based upon development from above, from below or, most often, a mixture of both. The distinction between growth centers and growth nuclei serves to point out the uniqueness and the importance of the latter. Whereas research on growth centers has led to the development of concepts and methods for examining the centers’ spatial influence on a macro-regional scale. obscrva- tions on growth nuclei are performed on ;I micro scale. This paper therefore should bc viewed as an effort to contribute to the ullderst~indirlg of the most basic stage in regional development-that of the entrance of the first initiatives into a developing region.

The particular reasons for the establishment of pioneering initiatives in new regions vary with regard to the type of industry and location. There- fore, examination of the specific causes for the entrance of early initiatives is a subject for local historical research. In contrast, this research deals with questions of a more general nature concerning the development of growth nuclei. The questions to be considered are: (a) what conditions are necessary for the formation of condensation nuclei? (b) what arc the requirements for the agglomeration of additional enterprises around the first pioneering nucleus‘? (c) what is the shape of the condensation function over time? and (d) what planning implica- tions can be derived from the agglomerative charac- teristics of such growth nuclei‘?

Although growth and c[~ndens~~ti~~ll nuclei, as defmed above, appear in various geographic set- tings, study of their characteristics and their con- tribution to regional development is more conve- nient in the inter-city area. For this reason, the present study focuses on the development of growth nuclei in four locations in Israel’s Negev region. Before presenting the sites which were studied. a

discussion of related theoretical concepts is required.

The Theoretical Background

The research questions presented above are con- cerned with two central aspects of urban and regional science: one is the concept of agglomera- tion; the second is the development of settlements. Agglomerations are usually analyzed with regard to the concentration of various and diverse economic activities within cities (CZAMANSKI and CZA-

Geoforum/Volume 18 Number l/1987

MANSKI, 1977; KIPNIS, 1983). This process is explained by the desire of entrepreneurs to enjoy external economies of scale and concentration (NOURSE, 1968; HARRIGANT, 1982). Within cities, this usually pertains to agglomerations of economic activities which supply employment for hundreds or thousands of workers. In such cases, the economic benefits available to joining entre- preneurs seem clear enough (although at some stage, diseconomies of scale are expected). In contrast, we are concerned with the cases of growth nuclei in which the initial stages of concentration are of much smaller dimensions. In such instances, the question is: are only economic incentives responsible for the concentration, or are there additional forces at work?

The connection of the growth nuclei concept to the subject of urban development is inherent in the following two processes: (a) the conglomeration of initiatives around the condensation point in an inter-urban region could lead to its growth, even- tually resulting in the construction of housing and the formation of a town; and (b) the concentration of initiatives around a condensation nucleus located in an existing settlement may lead to the growth of an additional economic base, which will encourage the development and the growth of that settlement. Paths of such development were outlined concep- tually by THOMPSON (1965) and PRED (1977)) and examined empirically via an input-output model by KIPNIS (1974). However, the body of literature on urban development, even that dealing with growth centres, does not provide details about the very initial phases of initiatives agglomerating around a first pioneering enterprise.

It is also worth noting that the term ‘growth pole’ as coined by PERROUX (1952) is not concerned with the initial stage of concentration of initiatives in any geographical location, but rather with the activities of the leading economic sector which promotes the growth of other sectors of the national economy (DARWENT, 1969). Because of this lack of con- cern with the initial phases of agglomeration in the geographical-economic lieterature, and in order to better define the concept of ‘condensation nucleus’, it may be rewarding to refer to analogies in the natural sciences. Due to the profound differences between the natural and social sciences, one should not be carried away by the analogies, which are made only to delineate the skeleton of the mechan- ism aiding the creation of the condensation and growth nuclei.

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Two characteristic processes in the development of these nuclei have been noticed during long-range observations: (a) there is an incubation period between the introduction of the idea and the establishment of the pioneering enterprise; and (b) the growth nuclei develops over the years at changing rates.

In the realm of nature, we are familiar with the phenomenon of a solid being dissolved in a liquid until the solution’s saturation point is reached. As long as the solution’s concentration is below the saturation point, it can absorb more and more solid matter without reaching the crystallization point. Moreover, under certain conditions, a saturated solution can continue to absorb additional matter until it becomes super-saturated, then the addition of a single crystal of the solid matter will cause crystallization around this crystal. At the end of the crystallization process, the solution will return to its under-saturated state (SCHAUM et al., 1958).

A similar phenomenon is to be found in aerosols when drops of liquid float in a gaseous medium, such as a cloud. In clouds, the temperature some- times drops to -20°C and below without changing the aerodynamics of the cloud and without the formation of rain. Rain will form and fall to the ground only if the small drops coalesce into larger ones, which will be pulled downwards due to their weight. The process of combining smaller drops into larger ones does not happen by itself. Certain conditions are necessary, such as minimal saturation and low temperatures, approximately -2l”C, which freezes some of the drops. Ice crystals ‘grow’, just as in the case of the super-saturated solution, and in their journey to the ground they pass ‘hotter’ air masses and melt, forming drops of rain. The principle of cloud seeding, for example, is based on the formation of these foci (HESS, 1974).

Behavior similar to that of crystallization in a solution and of condensation in an aerosol is exhibited during the creation of regional growth nucle (see Table 1). In the two examples taken from the natural sciences, there is a stage of pre- crystallization or pre-condensation in the incuba- tion, or ‘lag’ period. The lag period in regional development begins with the introduction of the idea of establishing an enterprise, and it may continue even after the enterprise has been built. Investment, in the form of entrepreneurial and financial resources involved in the planning and realization of an idea, is analogous to the addition

92 Geoformn/VoIume 18 Number l/l987

Table 1. Comparison between crystallization in a solution and the formation of regional growth nuclei

Solution Regional development

Addition of solid matter Introduction of idea to establish to an under-saturated solution enterprise; consultations before

execution

~~~

Continued addition of matter Establishment of pioneering initiative to an under-saturated solution which does not succeed

Addition of matter to a Establishment of a successful saturated solution- enterprise~reation of a crystallization condensation nucleus

[I;ltu,,bl,l

Addition of matter to a Additional enterprises established super-saturated solution -formation of a growth nucleus -rapid crystallization

Solution returns to Halt or slow down in pace of undersaturated state agglomeration

of solid matter to an unsaturated solution. Accord- ing to this model, the factors which will bring about growth are dependent not only upon the planners or decision-makers. but also, and critically, upon the existent pre-conditions and pressures in the region. An analogous situation to that of a super-saturated solution must be created so that the addition of a single individua1 ‘crystal’ in the form of a factory or an instituti~~n will initiate a process of growth of the nucleus. When appropriate pre-conditions are lack- ing. the result of investing money and effort toward the formation of the growth nucleus will be similar to that of a non-saturated solution which ‘swallows up‘ without a trace all solid material added to it.

A situation of saturation and condensation can be attained when there is an accumulation of pressures in the form of resources (capital, initiatives, social pressures, information, etc.) which will lead not only to the ~stablishmerlt of the enterprise, but also to its prosperity and vitality over a period of time. Such an initiative in a ‘saturated’ condition can act as a condensation nucleus. capable of attracting additional enterprises and thus becoming a long-

lasting regional growth nucleus. The expected shape of the initiative agglomeration curve over time is presented in Figure 1. Conti~luing with the analogy of a saturated solution, according to the curve. the establishment of a pioneering factory or institution should result in the attraction of additional initia- tives, after which another lag period is expected. A slowing down in the rate of ~~~ncentration of additional initiatives, or its cessation, stems- according to our analogy-from a release of the accumulated pressure and a return to a non- saturated situation. A new lag period will enable the running-in of the initial enterprises and an evalua- tion of their success. Renewal of the momentum of the agglomeration after the lag period will depend, to a large extent, upon the success of the pioneering enterprises.

At this point, the similarity between regional growth nuclei and the process of CrystaIlization ends. While crystallization takes place within a closed system, the process of regional growth occurs in geographically and economically open systems, hence ‘leakage’ of resources and their transfer to

93 GeoforumiVolume 18 Number l/1987

Time i in years)

Figure 1. Hypothetical initiative agglomeration function over time

other regions can be expected. However, the analogy leads us to the conclusion supported by the economic base theory (NOURSE, 1968) that the smaller the amount of leakage from the regional system, the larger the probability for the continua- tion or renewal of its growth through the shortening of the lag period. Minimization of leakages and creation of conducive conditions for absorption of new initiatives are crucially dependent on the ability of residents in the developing region to influence the process of development from within the region where they live (STOHR, 1981).

In this study, four sites identified as growth nuclei were examined with the aim of discerning similar- ities between their growth and the stages of development described above. The research hypothesis states that there will be fluctuations between lag periods and growth periods, which express the transition between non-saturated, satu- rated and condensation states during the develop- ment of each site.

Research Methodology

The following four sites were selected for detailed research from a list of potential growth nuclei: the Dead Sea shoreline, the Sha’ar Hanegev Regional Center, the Sde Boqer Campus, and the Central Arava region (see Figure 2). These nuclear points vary in their function, size and the reasons behind their development. However, and in spite of their dissimilarity, this work holds that a common denominator exists concerning their pattern of development over time.

In accordance with the theoretical considerations presented above, data have been collected on all factories and institutions in each research site since its establishment twenty or thirty years ago. As expected, large variations were found in the types of institutions and factories in the different places, as well as within each individual region. However, if initiative is perceived as a crucial factor for regional development, then it can be utilized as the common denominator among all the regions. Every initiative is the fruit of an idea adopted by an individual person or a group of people working towards its realization. In order to bring this about, a sufficient amount of public support and financial resources are needed. With the help of these two factors, the initiators can guide the idea through the bureaucra- tic maze in order to obtain the necessary permits for construction. Since the process for establishing an enterprise is about the same in all cases, we have chosen the number of realized initiatives as an indicator of the underlying condensation process. In

JERUSALEM I

Figure 2. Location of growth nuclei surveyed in the study.

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the data collection stage, we have listed the year each enterprise was established. Examination of the rate of agglomeration of the initiatives over time may help to substantiate the research hypothesis.

The Case Studies

In this section, we present the data and a discussion on each of the four cases which were surveyed. Table 2 presents the differences in the size of the nuclei, ranging from approximately 25 enterprises located along the shore of the Dead Sea and in Sha’ar Hanegev to under 20 each in Sde Boqer and the Central Arava region. Also, the rate of failure, indicated by the closing of enterprises, was higher in the latter two places.

The Dead Sea shoreline

The Dead Sea, divided between Israel and Jordan, is situated 400 m below sea level in the north- eastern corner of the Negev desert (see Figure 2). The Dead Sea area, once isolated and virtually inaccessible. is now reached by four good-quality surfaced roads. The area is relatively unsettled; however, a long segment of about 40 km of the south-western shoreline has been developed as a tourist resort (KRAKOVER, 1985). This segment is considered as one continuous regional growth nucleus. Natural resources, which are the basis for this nucleus, include the sea, scenery, mineral springs and archaeological remnants, with Masada at the fore. These resources sparked the imagina-

Geoforum/Volume 18 Number 111987

tions of visitors to this region even before the establishment of the State of Israel, when they saw the opportunities for developing tourism in this area (KOPELEVITCH and VENSKY, 1945, p. 133).

As can be seen from Figure 3, the agglomeration of enterprises in this area did proceed at different rates as anticipated. Despite the awareness of the tourism potential of the area. and despite the undaunting efforts of a handful of pioneers, no tourism enter- prise was set up until 19%. Therefore, the period until the establishment of the first enterprise, can be viewed as the incubation period of the idea to utilize the Dead Sea and its sites for tourism.

The construction of a road and the execution of experimental drillings in the hot springs in 1958, gave rise to the opening of a visitor accommodation facility built by public sector funds which served as a recuperation center (DORON. 1965). This initia- tive should be viewed as the first condensation nucleus. The atmosphere for investments in the area was probably saturated, thus the first nucleus contributed to the acceleration of the regional development process.

The years 1958-1965 witnessed rapid agglomeration of initiatives. During this period twelve new enter- prises were constructed, including: three youth hostels, two guest houses. two hot spring bathing facilities, three local museums, a field school, and a regional center which provided certain public and private services. These years of accelerated development recall the analogy of crystallization

Table 2. Number of enterprises constructed in the regions under study

Dead Sea Sha’ar Hanegev Sde Boqer Central Arava shoreline Regional Center Campus region

Est. Clo. Est. Clo. Est. Clo. Est. Clo.

1951-1960 3 7 1961-1970 9 6 1 7 1 3 1971-1980 7 1 9 1 4 4 12 2 1981-1984 5 4 1 3 5 2

Total enterprises 24 1 26 3 14 5 20 4

Total active enterprises 23 23 9 16

Source: Data collected by authors. Source tables available upon request. Est.=established. Clo.=closed.

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Figure 3. Agglomeration of initiatives along the Dead Sea shoreline.

which occurs in super-saturated solution. Such development is shown in the bottom part of the curve drawn in Figure 3.

The years 1966-1981 were characterized by a slow pace in the addition of new enterprises. At this stage it seems that the local infrastructure, together with the enterprises established up to 1965, tempor- arily exhausted the potential for development, which returned to a ‘non-saturated’ state. During this long period of 16 years, only eight new enterprises were established. These included three hotels, two campgrounds, a motel, a restaurant, and the cable car service leading to the summit of the mountain of Masada. It should be noted, however, that despite the slow rate of change taking place within the Dead Sea growth nucleus, there were several significant developments in the surrounding area. The most important were the establishment of the town of Arad (population of 13,000 in 1983) some 20 km up the mountain, and the opening of two new roads leading to the area from the east and the north. These developments brought the site back to a new saturation point and set the stage for a renewed period of growth.

The years 1982-1984 seem to be the beginning of a new growth period. During these two years, two new hotels were opened and construction on two others began. These years also witnessed the allocation of resources for the construction of new access roads to the hotels, installation of road lighting and improvement of the scenery, construc- tion of a water recycling plant, and the arrangement of public bathing beaches. Also, construction began on two commercial projects near the hotel area, as

95

well as on an experimental tunnel for the Mediterranean-Dead Sea Canal project. As of 1983, there were seven hotels along the Dead Sea shoreline supplying about 1000 rooms, and five campgrounds and hostels providing 1200 beds. The number of person/nights in the hotels in 1983 reached approximately 370,000.

The Sha’ar Hanegev Regional Center

Another example of a regional growth nucleus is the regional center of Sha’ar Hanegev (the gate of the Negev), situated in the relatively more settled north-western part of the Negev desert (see Figure 2). From the outset, the center was designed by ‘planning from above’ agencies to house industrial plants and institutions belonging to the several kibbutzim (rural communes) located in this area (see PRION, 1968; KELLERMAN, 1972). The regional center is located next to the development town of Sederot (population of 9000 in 1983); thus it provides employment to the town’s inhabitants. An historical follow-up of the aggIomeration process responsible for the concentration of plants and institutions in this center reveals, once again, the iterations between fast and slow rates of develop- ment.

The idea of joint ventures by several kibbutzim was preached long ago by some members of the kibbutz movement (SHA’AR HANEGEV REGIONAL COUNCIL, 1961). However, this idea stayed in the stage of a ‘non-saturated solution’ until the proper conditions for its implementation had been realized. It appears that the main factor which facilitated the realization of the idea, was over-saturation of initiator-managerial personnel available among the kibbutz members. In 1953, the first initiative was taken when ten clover-drying machines were imported, and the secretary of one of the kibbutzim in the area convinced agencies of the central government to transfer one of them to the collective of the kibbutzim in Sha’ar Hanegev. The plant ‘forced’ the area kibbutzim to cooperate not only in its operation, but also in planning and raising of clover to ensure sufficient yields (SEGEV and PESAH, 1964).

Establishing the clover-drying plant caused con- troversy among kibbutzim members on the one hand, but encouraged the idea of regional coopera- tion and to search for additional enterprises, on the other. However, construction of this single cooper- ative factory seems to have exhausted the ‘saturated

solution‘ for four years (see Figure 4). Only &wards the end of the 1950s did the prevailing conditions result in renewed condensation. with the construc- tion of a petrol station, chicken abattoir, regional garage, regional school and an amphitheater. The period of development came to an end with a massive thrust when six factories and a school for adult education were established between 1961 and 1962. This thrust. it seems, drained the saturated pool of initiatives which had existed in the area for a number of years.

The under-saturated conditions gave rise to a long lag period between the years 1962 and 1975, when only one new factory was constructed. This period was probably utilized for running-in and developing the existing enterprises and, hence, was not condu- cive for additional ventures. Thus, the region returned to an under-saturated state, which ended in 1975 (see Figure 4). From that date, the momentum of development was renewed: however, this time there was cooperation with external parties. A citrus fruit packing plant for expurts was built in 1975, and in I976 two regional educational institutions were established. In 1982. a private company set up a solar power system; hontever it ceased functioning two years later. In 1983, the women’s organization of ‘Na’amat’ began operating a day-care center, and a supermarket was built by Kibbutz Nir Am, an individual rather than inter- kihburz enterprise as previous ventures has been. Group ventures were: a refrigeration plant (1978). a fruit peel processing- plant, chicken incubator (t9?8f, a computer center (1980), and a plant for

Figure 4. Agglomeration of initiatives in the Sha’ar Hanegev Regional Center.

producing energy by burning agr~cult~r~~l waste (1984). There was a total of eleven new initiatives between 1975 and 1984, an average rate of more than one per year.

This rapid rate of agglomeration between 1975 and 1984 shows that the state of saturation (with regard to financial resources, entrepreneurship or other production factors) found in this region following the long lag period between 1962 and 1974 had been vigorously utilized. According to the theory set forth in the previous section. one would expect the region to return to a state of under-s~~tur~tio~. During this period the growth nucleus would ready itself for future absoprtion of initiatives. as well as reorganize for a more efficient utilization of those enterprises established in the growth period. During the non-saturation period, we would expect a build up of new pressures which would burst out in a new wave of initiatives in the future.

The Sde Boqer Campus is situated in the middle of the Negev desert in a sparsely settled upland near Kibbutz Sde Bayer. This kibbutz had been selected by Ben-Gurion, the first prime minister of Israel, as his retirement home. The Sde Boqer Campus began with an idea, expressed by Ben-Gurion during a tour to the area, of establishing a teachers’ training college (Midrashn) in the desert. The idea was brought to the attention of the public in 1953, when Ben-Gurion first left the Government, and moved to the kibbutz, Its incubation period stretched until 1962, when construction of a field trip school at the Midrasha site began. This first ‘condensation nu- cleus’ opened in 1964.

The Midrasha developed quickly as an educational institution including dormitories and housing for the staff (see Figure -5). During the years 1964-1966, six different educatianal institutions were established. This rapid development seems to provide evidence of an attempt to satisfy the accumulated ideological drive to develop an educational campus in the midst of the Negev and this first thrust returned the situation to a under-~turated state. During the years 1967-1973, onfy two new initiatives were instituted {a language instruction center for South African youth and a high school program for English speakers).

The years 1974-1975 should be viewed as a short renewed growth period. During these years, two

GeoforumNolume 18 Number l/1987 97

6

Figure 5. Agglomeration of initiatives at the Sde Boqer Campus.

significant new institutions were established at the Sde Boqer Campus. The first was The Center for the Heritage of Ben-Gurion, and the other was The Institute for Desert Research. These research cen- ters are operated by the Ben-Gurion University of the Negev and, together with the other educational institutions, the campus has become the location of educational and research pursuits as Ben-Gurion dreamed it would. The growth period of the mid-1970s was relatively short and no additional ventures followed. This may be attributed to the size and complexity of The Institute for Desert Research, which required intensive investment for the construction of buildings and laboratories.

With the increase in the numbers of educational and research institutes came an increase in the number of employees and residents living on the campus. In 1982. the Sde Boqer growth nucleus provided jobs for 158 workers, living in 128 apartments. The total number of residents was 378 (DOVER, 1982).

Renewed growth activity began in the 1980s as a result of the growth in numbers of residents requiring services. In 1981 The Institute for Environmental Education was established and in 1982 the primary school. In 1983 residents who see their future tied to this remote place set up a registered ‘Association’ whose aim was to build a permanent incorporated town at the site. This campus is an example of the creation of a regional growth nucleus, which began through development from above, but which continued under pressures from below until the local residents requested the establishment of an independent recognized settle- ment.

The Central Arava region

The Central Arava growth nucleus is located

midway between the Dead Sea and the town of Eilat, along the main artery leading to this town and adjacent to the Jordanean border. Despite its harsh climate, this area has been a target for agricultural settlement projects. Since the mid-1960s, eight such settlements have been established in this region.

Although the development of the Central Arava growth nucleus is interwoven with the establishment of the settlements, these are not included in the survey of the region’s development initiatives, because they constitute an undertaking of greater scale than the types of initiatives we are dealing with.

The earliest commercial initiatives to enter this region were connected with road and tourist ser- vices. The first condensation nucleus was the snack bar opened in 1965 near Ein Yahav, the first and largest settlement. After a regional elementary school was opened in Ein Yahav in 1968. the following three enterprises provided services for travellers: a petrol station (1970), the Hatzeva field trip school (1972), and the Hatzeva restaurant

(1976). As can be seen from Figure 6, the years between 196.5 and 1976 were characterized by a rather slow development rate. indicating that the area was not yet saturated.

The appropriate saturation level was reached in 1978 when, as a result of a social conflict, the teachers and their families were required to move out of Ein Yahav and settle in the newly planned Sapir regional center. The establishment of this regional center precipitated the transfer of the regional elementary school to the center, as well as the establishment of five agricultural produce pro- cessing plants, a warehouse for the selling of

9x Ge~forum/Voium~ 18 Number 111987

produce, a grocery store, a bank, various public services including the offices of the regional council, a sports gymnasium, a swimming pool and a health clinic. The introduction of new initiatives has slown down somewhat since 1982; nevertheless, two commercial enterprises were set up in Ein Yahav, and construction continued at the Sapir regional center and in the region.

In our search for the cause of the rapid wave of investment in the area which began in 1978, we reached the rather surprising conclusion that it probably originated from the super-saturated situa- tion. characterized by the inability of Moshav Ein Yahav to provide housing for the professional workers in the area. As the number of people in professional services grew (teaching, in the main), and the gap between the moderate incomes of these people and the high incomes of the farmers widened, the latter began to look for ways to resettle the professionals outside their moshav. A solution in the form of a regional center won not only the support of the local residents, but also that of the central government authorities. The decision to establish the Sapir regional center brought in its wake a rapid wave of initiatives which were realized between the years I978 and 1982. This wave, which began as a result of the thrust of ‘development from below’, was heavily supported and funded by ‘development from above’ partners.

Although Moshav Ein Yahav has established new enterprises in the past two years. and various projects are being constructed, it seems as if the rate of growth is slowing. This impression is supported by the fact that two enterprises (the melon and pepper packing plant, and banking services) have closed and a number of residents at the Sapir regional contcr have moved North. This slow-down is probably linked to the economic crisis in agricul- ture, as well as to the unavoidable difficulties in absorbing the many enterprises which opened during the period of rapid growth. According to our model, we may expect that these difficulties will cause a period of slow-down before a new satura- tion point is reached. bringing a renewed accelera- tion in the rate of absorption of new initiatives.

Discussion

Despite the differences between the regions sur- veyed, similarities in their paths of development can be seen. In each case, there was a relatively long

incubation period before an innovative initiative was realized. Then a single institution or factory which becomes the nucleus of condensation was established. This nucleus was then followed by other institutions and/or factories which agglomer- ated around it, alternating between slow and rapid rates of concentration. These findings seem to support the research hypothesis based upon the theoretical framework. Moreover, it seems that the findings support the supposition that the creation and agglomeration of initiatives around the con- densation nucleus are dependent upon certain satu- rated conditions. In the Dead Sea region it would seem that saturation was reached with regard to the assessment of the economic potential of natural resources in the fields of health. tourism and recreation; in Sha’ar Hanegev a saturated state was reached in the entrepreneurial talents existing in the kibbutzim; in the Sde Boqer Campus an ideological saturation was created which spurred the establish- ment of an educational and research campus in the Negev; and in the central Arava region the satu- rated medium was the inability to continue absorb- ing professional, rlon-agricultural personnel into the ~2~~~~7~~~~~~. In each instance, there is clear evidence of pressures which increased during a long incuba- tion period, resulting in the formation of a con- densation nucleus.

On the basis of the collected evidence. WC can assume, that at the beginning, the agglomeration function is dependent upon the maturity of the accumulated pressures. In the instances of the Dead Sea shoreline and the Sde Boqer Campus, we are witnesses to rapid c~~ndensation immediateiy after the establishment of the initial condensation nucleus, whereas in Sha’ar Hanegev and the central Arava region, rapid agglomeration came after a delay of several years. In all examples, a slower rate of development followed the rapid stage. This shows that the financial and creative resources were turned towards the absorption and operation of the existing enterprises, and there was a return to an under-saturated situation with regard to the pressures for additional ventures. The pressures for new ventures accumulated anew only after a pro- longed hiatus, as a result of developments which occurred not only in the growth nucleus, but also on its periphery.

In each growth nucleus there were also enterprises which closed down. A venture which fails influences the situation in a variety of ways. This can be interpreted as a sign that the center cannot absorb

GeoforumNolume 18 Number 111987 99

additional initiatives. However, closing an enter- prise could free resources (buildings, personnel, etc.) which, in certain cases, might renew the pressures for establishing new ventures. It can be assumed that in the case of failure, a substantial proportion of the resources (entrepreneurial forces, financial resources, etc.) will ‘leak’ out of the region, thereby diminishing the strength of the pressures. The amount of leakage is expected to be smaller in areas of social coherence (such as kihhutzim). In such areas, therefore, the rate at which pressures accumulate for the creation of new initiatives is expected to be faster.

PIONEERING ENTERPRISE

Under- saturated

/ /

The process of accumulation of pressures towards the establishment of enterprises in a growth nucleus is described graphically in Figure 7. During the initial in~bation period, the pioneering initiative develops in an under-saturated environment. As the pressures build, aided by certain complementary conditions, the situation approaches saturation, which eventually results in realization of the pioneering initiative. The establishment of the pioneering initiative and the agglomeration which follows, causes the state of pressures to become under-saturated once again, and thus another incubation or lag period will follow. Instances of failure during this period may result in leakages of resources from the system. In such cases, a lessen- ing in the pressures wilf occur, teading to a delay in the re-attainment of a saturated situation. In closed systems (such as the kibbutz system at Sha’ar Hanegev), the freed resources might rejoin forces striving for the opening of new ventures. Figure 7 summarizes the model of the formation of growth nuclei by portraying the cycle of attainment of saturation, condensation, the return to an under- saturated situation, and the gradual development of new pressures which eventually result in saturation and a new growth period, and so forth.

Leakagq ,

Figure 7. Flow of initiative resources in the formation of growth nuclei.

(b) What is the influence of external factors on the alternating rates of development? This research was focused on the internal dynamics of the growth nuclei. It has been mentioned, however, that changes taking place in regions surrounding the nucleus may affect its development, Moreover, the rate of investment in the nucleus will most likely be influenced by fluctuations in the national economy. The delineation and study of the various influences requires research on a broader scale.

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Concluding Remarks

The cyclical nature of the changes in the pace of growth raises questions which need further research.

(a) Is the cyclic pattern of development of the growth nuclei inevitable, and thus to be found at each location? In order not to err on the side of determinism, let us assume that the cyclical nature of development has a high probabilit~~ of occurrence and, therefore, regional planners should be aware of it and plan accordingly.

fd)

What are the appropriate mutual relationships between the forces of development from below and those from above? This study analyzed the process of agglomeration of initiatives by sug- gesting a model of alternating rates of develop- ment. The model and the case studies furnished indirect information about the vitality of con- solidating forces of development from below for the aims of initiation, absorption of initiatives, and the minimization of leakages. A more detailed study of these subjects would supply direct information with regard to the desired farms of cooperation between initiators from above and from below, aiming at a successful development of growth nuclei. What are the planning and predictive implica- tions of such research? Despite the limitations of the present research, certain conclusions can be drawn

100

1. The research findings regarding the high probability of a cyclical path of development support the incremental planning and the active planning approaches, while the efficiency of the comprehensive planning method is called into question.

2. Active planning must find the correct balance between planning from below and that from above.

3. The research findings show that the growth nuclei have their own inner dynamic develop- ment. These growth nuclei may develop even when there are instructions from above to the contrary, if strong enough pressures have accumulated to push forward their establish- ment.

4. In addition, planning authorities, which approve the construction of a single factory or institution in a new area, must take into consideration the high probability that the new venture may be the nucleus of condensa- tion which will attract other enterprises.

5. Familiarity with the mechanisms of creation and long-range development of the growth nuclei can be used by planners and planning authorities to increase supervision and con- trol, either when continued development is not desired, or when further growth is to be encouraged.

Hand-in-hand with the attempt to verify the hypoth- eses concerning the foundation of the growth process, one must remember that an empirical examination was made in four regions only. Also, the exanlination looked at the rates of initiative agglomeration, while the states of saturation and under-saturation were only indirectly derived. There is no doubt that in order to verify further the process of agglomeration of enterprises in regional growth nuclei, as described in this study, it will be necessary to broaden the research to additional regions. Also. an in-depth study is required in order to suggest a more direct method of predicting the situations of saturation and of discerning the con- nections between them and between the changing rates in the establishment of new initiatives.

The main weakness of the growth nuclei model presented in this work seems to lie in its inability to predict (1 priori the timing of the changes in satura- tion which affect the rate of new enterprises entering the region. However, awareness of regional planners to the dynamics of the build-up and release of initiation pressures will contribute to

Geoforum/Volume 18 Number 111987

a better understanding of the developmental pro- cess of the most basic components in regional development. In turn, this understanding may contribute to better coordination between the forces in the field, on the one hand, and the plan- ning stages imposed from above, on the other.

Note

1. Detailed reviews of planning theories and approaches may be found in BOLAN (1967). FRIEDMANN and HUDSON (1974). HUDSON (1979). and HEALY et at. (1982).

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