The Declining Membership of the Presbyterian Church USA 1
The Declining Membership of the Presbyterian Church (U.S.A.)
Chris McMillan
Methodist University
The Declining Membership of the Presbyterian Church USA 2
Abstract
Membership in the Presbyterian Church (U.S.A.) (PCUSA) has been
on a steady decline since 1965 and shows no signs of abatement.
This paper presents demographic and statistical data from a
variety of sources to illustrate the decline in membership and
will answer two basic questions: 1) What are the causes, both
real and perceived, behind this decline, and 2) What steps can
denominational leadership take to reverse this trend?
Information from the Presbyterian Church USA national website
(http://www.pcusa.org ) , interviews with denominational leaders at
both the Presbytery and individual church levels, numerous
articles in both the denominational and secular press, and
interviews with individual Presbyterian Church goers are
presented in order to demonstrate the gap in perception of the
issue between church leaders and congregants. Recommendations
are then made as to how best to bridge this gap in perception and
thus provide an opportunity to engage in efforts that will
increase membership in the PCUSA.
The Declining Membership of the Presbyterian Church USA 3
The Declining Membership of the Presbyterian Church USA
Membership in the Presbyterian Church USA (PCUSA) reached a
high of 4.3 million members in 1965 but has been declining since
that time (see Appendix A). Member losses in 2012 and 2013 were
the largest declines in membership since the mid-seventies. Not
only is the denomination losing individual members, the number of
churches is down as well. There were 224 fewer churches in the
denomination in 2013 than in 2012 and half of those churches
still left in the denomination have less than 89 members and no
installed pastor. Deaths of members in 2013 outpaced baptisms by
6,222 and transfers into the denomination by profession of faith
were down by 5,332 from 2012 to 2013. The pace of decline in
membership is not sustainable. Extending this trend into the
future leads to the conclusion that the denomination could
potentially cease to exist within fifteen years (Kincaid, 2014).
Two questions immediately come to mind. What drives this
decline and what steps can be taken to reverse this trend? The
answers to those questions depend on who is asked. Leaders at
the national and presbytery levels tend to either ignore the
The Declining Membership of the Presbyterian Church USA 4
issue or point to the disengagement of the membership from the
leadership of the denomination. Grass-roots members argue that
the theology of the denominational leadership does not mesh well
with the thinking of a majority of the congregants and even if it
did, leadership at the national and presbytery levels has never
made much of an effort to engage and/or support the individual
congregations. Both sides support their arguments passionately,
but while church goers and leadership are at odds, the
denominational boat continues to leak members, pastors, and whole
congregations at an alarming rate.
By the Numbers
According to the Pew Forum on Religion and Public Life,
51.3% of adult Americans are Protestant, with 18.1% of adults
belonging to mainline Protestant churches, of which the PCUSA is
a part. Based on figures from the United States Census Bureau,
the population of the United States is nearly 319 million, which
puts the number of mainline Protestants at almost 58 million
(Pew, 2014) . Baptists comprise the largest subsection of
The Declining Membership of the Presbyterian Church USA 5
Protestants with Methodists, Lutherans, and Pentecostals
following. Presbyterians fall in line next in terms of
membership with 2.7% of the total adult population. However, the
PCUSA can only claim less than half that total for an overall
membership of 1.8 million, according to Research Services of the
PCUSA (see Appendix A). The Pew research notes that:
Although scholars contributing to this research have adopted
a variety of definitions of major religious groups and
pursued various approaches to measuring change over time,
all the research arrives at a similar conclusion: The
proportion of the population that is Protestant has declined
markedly in recent decades while the proportion of the
population that is not affiliated with any particular
religion has increased significantly. (Pew, 2014)
This downward trend in Protestant membership is also
substantiated by the General Social Surveys (GSS) conducted by
the National Opinion Research Center at the University of Chicago
from 1972 to 2006. This survey also shows a decline in
membership in Protestant churches overall. However, according to
The Declining Membership of the Presbyterian Church USA 6
a Gallup survey released in December 2013, the number of
Americans who report attending church has remained fairly steady
since 1950, and, since 1965 it has been almost constant at 40% ±
3 percentage points. (See Appendix B) Based on these surveys, it
is clear that church attendance is not down, but membership in
Protestant churches is. This decline in Protestant membership is
especially troubling for the PCUSA as they are relatively small
to begin with, so further declines in membership are more
critical for them as opposed to denominations with larger
populations. Furthermore, Presbyterians have a lower rate of
retention than most of the other Protestant denominations.
Approximately 60% of adults who were raised Presbyterian have
switched religious affiliation as adults. This low retention
rate combined with the net loss of members between deaths and
converts referenced earlier signals a trend that, if it
continues, will render the denomination virtually obsolete in the
next 15 to 20 years. This demise may be hastened once the
denomination falls below a critical mass of members necessary to
keep itself viable practically and financially. The one bright
The Declining Membership of the Presbyterian Church USA 7
spot in the numbers may be that of the 60% of those who were
Presbyterian as children and then left the denomination, 36%
moved to another Protestant denomination, with about half going
to an evangelical denomination and the other half going to
another mainline denomination. This would seem to indicate that
it’s not a change in religious beliefs on the part of the
individual members that is driving this movement away from the
PCUSA, but rather that these people have become disenchanted with
the PCUSA itself. While it may seem unusual to see this as a
positive, it indicates that the PCUSA may control its own
destiny. A major change in religious beliefs by the population
at large would indicate that factors outside the scope of control
of the denomination are at work, whereas disenchantment with the
denomination is completely within the scope of control of the
denomination.
Differing Viewpoints
Given the data provided by the PCUSA, how has the
denominational leadership responded to the issue of declining
The Declining Membership of the Presbyterian Church USA 8
membership? It seems to depend on the level of denominational
leadership that is referenced. The Reverend Gradye Parsons,
Stated Clerk of the General Assembly of the PCUSA, stated in a
May 29, 2014, news release from the Office of the General
Assembly of the PCUSA:
Yes, the numbers reflect a decrease in active members in the
denomination, but the numbers also illustrate fewer losses
than the previous year. The membership declined by 89,296
in 2013, compared to 102,791 in 2012. We are meeting the
challenges we have had and it’s showing, and our decline in
total congregations is holding fairly steady. (PCUSA, 2014)
In a presentation to the PCUSA Board of Pensions on April
17, 2013, Parsons addresses the declining number of members and
acknowledges that although numbers for the PCUSA are declining:
The fact that fewer Americans say they have a religious
identity does not necessarily mean there has been a
decrease in overall religiosity in America. It is
possible that some proportion of those who don’t
The Declining Membership of the Presbyterian Church USA 9
identify with a specific religion are still personally
or spiritually religious. (Parsons, 2013)
Parsons is addressing the issue of that portion of the
population referred to as the “Nones”, those people who say they
are spiritual or religious, but do not affiliate with a
particular denomination. In short, he seems to pawn some of the
issue of declining membership in the PCUSA off on general trends
in society. However, even after acknowledging declines in
membership and the increase in people who are not religiously
affiliated and the increase in people who aren’t even interested
in becoming affiliated, his stated strategy is that the PCUSA
must think for itself, stand for what it believes, become more
multicultural, love everyone, and hope for a positive outcome.
To quote Rudy Giuliani from his September 2008 Republican
National Convention speech, “hope is not a strategy.” More
should be expected from the leader of a denomination that has
been losing members steadily for forty years than a strategy of
“let’s hope for the best.”
The Declining Membership of the Presbyterian Church USA 10
The viewpoint from the Presbytery level seems to be similar
to that at the national level. In an email exchange with a
mission coordinator from the Presbytery of Coastal Carolina, when
posed with the question of whether denominational leadership
played any part in the decline, the response was:
There have been many articles and studies done on mainline
decline. Few of those articles pin the decline on
“denominational leadership” as you mention. There are cases
made for cultural shifts, lack of denominational loyalty,
lower birth rates, churches frozen in the 1950’s style and
music, poorly trained pastors (introverts/no evangelism
training), endowment funds removing accountability, people
moving to the suburbs, the appeal of “Mall style” churches
with coffee shops, children’s programs like music and art,
multimedia sermons, etc. There is decline is in the Southern
Baptist church, the PCUSA, Lutheran, Methodist, and more.
Many people are shifting to non-denominational churches.
Remember that decline happens in local churches over time.
In the case of PCUSA we have entire congregations leaving to
The Declining Membership of the Presbyterian Church USA 11
other reformed bodies which skews the numbers. (Personal
communication, August 26, 2014)
While Presbytery seems to have a somewhat more definite
strategy to address the issue of declining membership, their
attitude towards this issue is that the fault for the decline
rests solely with the individual congregations. Presbytery is
currently executing a Listening, Learning, Dreaming Together
project which involves a committee from the Presbytery conducting
face to face interviews with members seeking ideas on how to
strengthen the denomination. Presbytery also offers one-on-one
coaching with congregations seeking to make better use of their
resources and to expand their opportunities for ministry.
However, the general mood of the Presbytery seems to be that if
participation in programs such as these isn’t happening, the
individual congregations are to blame for not taking advantage of
Presbytery’s offerings. It doesn’t seem to occur to them that
low participation rates could be due to a lack of perceived
quality in the programs offered or poor communication of the
existence of the programs. Perhaps low participation rates could
The Declining Membership of the Presbyterian Church USA 12
even be due to a lack of trust in Presbytery by the individual
congregations.
The view from the individual congregation and member level
is revealing. In the response section of the article “2012
Statistics Show Dramatic Decrease in PCUSA Membership,
Congregations” (Kincaid, 2014) quotes such as the following
appear:
I was a member of Presbyterian USA (sic) and left
because the church has left the bible, tradition,
prayer, faith and grace behind. My former church, a
website in Cincinnati does not mention the words Jesus
or Christ. The minister offered no personal prayer! The
church became a social service organization, nothing
more. If the central body and the ministers have no
faith that Christ is the Savior, that the bible is the
word of God, that a worship service is to honor God
almighty, then this church holds neither meaning nor
hope for hundreds of thousands of Presbyterians. That
The Declining Membership of the Presbyterian Church USA 13
is why we left and are seeking the gospel in other
churches.
I wonder if the national office really cares whether it
has people in the pews. If they were just a national
office operating off the earnings from the
denomination’s endowments they would be entirely free
to pursue their liberal political impulses, just
another Washington political lobby, one that uses
“Jesus” words.
I would be interested in participating in a
constructive discussion of a couple points in the
article. Specifically, “The 2012 statistics challenge
us as Presbyterians to connect with the ever-growing
number of those with no religious affiliation,” and
“Why not study them [churches that are growing in this
environment] and invest the denomination’s significant
resources in retooling itself to become a more
effective proponent of the gospel?” We’ve all heard the
definition of insanity, “repeating the same actions but
The Declining Membership of the Presbyterian Church USA 14
expecting a different outcome.” There are two paths
then; to change what we are doing or be irrelevant and
crazy! The Great Commission directs us to make
disciples – if we can be found faithful to that, then I
think size will take care of itself. The goal is not to
be the biggest church, but like the old Wendy’s
commercial, “Where’s the beef?!” God grant us wisdom.
These comments echo many of the thoughts expressed over the
years by large numbers of PCUSA members. Individual members
consistently point to the lack of a Scriptural basis in preaching
and worship, the disconnect in communication between the upper
levels of the organization and the grassroots, and the apparent
lack of a change in course from the leadership when it seems
obvious the current course is ineffective in retaining members.
Blogger Jacob Lupfer captures the grassroots mood well in his
June 21, 2014, blog entry “Is the PCUSA *that* Liberal? Yes.”
(Lupfer, 2014) He specifically points to the diverging viewpoints
on important social and theological issues between the laity and
The Declining Membership of the Presbyterian Church USA 15
the pastors of the PCUSA. He points directly to this divergence
as a major reason for the mass defections from the denomination.
Conclusions and Recommendations
What conclusions can we draw from the data and the divergent
expressions of viewpoints? It is obvious that the national and
presbytery levels of leadership are not in synch theologically
with many of the individual churches they serve. This is
evidenced both by the mass of negative comments from individuals
towards the leadership and the exodus of so many whole
congregations to other denominations. National leadership has
not expressed a concrete strategy to address the decline in
membership. Leadership at the Presbytery level is attempting to
address the issue, but is either not hearing or hearing and not
acting upon the voice of their customers, the individual
congregations. While it is true many programs exist that purport
The Declining Membership of the Presbyterian Church USA 16
to aid congregations with growth and change, the membership has
been on a steady decline for forty years. These programs have
not and are not working. The fact that many congregations refuse
to avail themselves of these programs, for a number of reasons
already stated, indicates that other ideas are needed. The
leadership will argue that they have not contributed to the loss
of members, but at some point the leadership has to take
ownership of the problem and realize that if they are not part of
the solution, they are part of the problem. Taking inappropriate
action, or taking ineffective action, is no better than complete
inaction.
How do we reverse this downward spiral? Three
recommendations come to mind. Certainly this is not an
exhaustive list, but it is a good start at trying new ideas that
attack specific elements of the larger problem.
1. Increase visibility of the church on college campuses.
It is a fact that young people who grow up in the
church drift away in their late teens and early
twenties and don’t return, if they return at all, until
The Declining Membership of the Presbyterian Church USA 17
they begin a family. The data shows that the PCUSA has
one of the lowest retention rates of any of the
Protestant denominations (Presbyterian Mission, 2014).
The Baptists have one of the best retention rates and
by no coincidence have one of the most active college
campus programs, the Baptist Student Union, of any of
the denominations. By increasing and enhancing the
analogous Presbyterian campus program, PCUSA could do a
better job of retaining young Presbyterians and
possibly capturing new members. This would also be an
excellent opportunity to give these young adults
opportunities to serve in these churches and possibly
learn how to be church leaders, such as elders,
deacons, and Sunday school teachers.
2. Devote new church development resources to existing
congregations. This seems counterintuitive, but what
is meant here is instead of trying to build new
worshiping communities, begin with existing churches
with small memberships and a high median age of members
The Declining Membership of the Presbyterian Church USA 18
and devote resources to recruiting young families with
children into these congregations. Initially it would
be akin to starting a “new “church within an existing
congregation. The existing members could maintain
their status quo with Sunday school classes and social
groups while the new members could form new Sunday
school classes and social groups and possibly even a
separate worship service. The benefit is in leveraging
an existing building, an existing business staff, and
an existing pastor while you are beginning a new,
sustainable worshiping community.
3. Make Presbytery more visible at the local church level.
For many congregations Presbytery is akin to a unicorn;
they’ve heard stories about it but they’ve never
actually seen it. Both Presbytery and the individual
congregations complain about the disconnect between the
two groups, but no one seems to be willing to bridge
the gap. Presbytery should establish a visitation
committee and commit to at least one visit by a
The Declining Membership of the Presbyterian Church USA 19
committee member to every church in the Presbytery at
least once over the course of a year. Certainly this
will take a moderate amount of dedicated volunteers,
but it also is a show of action on the part of
Presbytery that it is serious about improving relations
with the congregations. It also provides Presbytery
with the opportunity to listen to the voice of its
customers and collect information that can be used to
make its programs more customer-focused and effective.
The PCUSA did not arrive at its current low membership
numbers overnight and it will not reverse the trend of
declining membership quickly. However, to continue to
follow programs and policies that have only led to a loss of
members every year for the last forty years is ludicrous.
New avenues must be pursued and denominational leadership
must lead the way. Otherwise, the individual members will
blaze their own paths and to this point that has been a path
out of the denomination.
Year Reported M em bership
Year to Year
Change
Percent Change
1965 42545971966 4249765 -4832 -0.114%1967 4225247 -24518 -0.577%1968 4187154 -38093 -0.902%1969 4125934 -61220 -1.462%1970 4049391 -76543 -1.855%1971 3966443 -82948 -2.048%1972 3863293 -103150 -2.601%1973 3723411 -139882 -3.621%1974 3622649 -100762 -2.706%1975 3544099 -78550 -2.168%1976 3493326 -50773 -1.433%1977 3439130 -54196 -1.551%1978 3382783 -56347 -1.638%1979 3330075 -52708 -1.558%1980 3272518 -52708 -1.583%1981 3211025 -57557 -1.759%1982 3166050 -61493 -1.915%1983 3131228 -44975 -1.421%1984 3100951 -34822 -1.112%1985 3057226 -30277 -0.976%1986 3016488 -43725 -1.430%1987 2976937 -40738 -1.351%1988 2938830 -39551 -1.329%1989 2895706 -38107 -1.297%1990 2856045 -43124 -1.489%1991 2815045 -39661 -1.389%1992 2780406 -75639 -2.687%1993 2742192 -38214 -1.374%1994 2698262 -43930 -1.602%1995 2665276 -32986 -1.222%1996 2631466 -33810 -1.269%1997 2609191 -22275 -0.846%1998 2587674 -21517 -0.825%1999 2560201 -27473 -1.062%2000 2525330 -34871 -1.362%2001 2493781 -31549 -1.249%2002 2451969 -41812 -1.677%2003 2405311 -46658 -1.903%2004 2362136 -43175 -1.795%2005 2313662 -48474 -2.052%2006 2267118 -46544 -2.012%2007 2209546 -57572 -2.539%2008 2140165 -69381 -3.140%2009 2077138 -63027 -2.945%2010 2016091 -61047 -2.939%2011 1952287 -63804 -3.165%2012 1849496 -102791 -5.265%
The Declining Membership of the Presbyterian Church USA 21
Appendix A
PCUSA Membership Numbers 1965 – 2012 (Presbyterian Mission, 2014)
The Declining Membership of the Presbyterian Church USA 22
Appendix B
December 2013 Gallup Survey on Church Attendance (Gallup, 2014)
The Declining Membership of the Presbyterian Church USA 23
References
Gallup. (2014). December 2013 Survey on Church Attendance. Retrieved
from http://www.gallup.com/poll/166613/four-report-
attending-church-last-week.aspx
Jackson, Toya R. May 29, 2014. Stated Clerk Releases PC(USA) 2013
Statistics. Presbyterian News Services. Retrieved from
http://www.pcusa.org/news/2014/5/29/stated-clerk-releases-
pcusa-2013-statistics/
Kincaid, Paula R. June 4, 2013. 2012 Statistics Show Dramatic
Decrease in PCUSA Membership, Congregations. The Layman Online.
Retrieved from http://www.layman.org/2012-statistics-show-
dramatic-decrease-in-pcusa-membership-congregations/
Kincaid, Paula R. June 4, 2014. PCUSA Membership Declines Again
in 2013. The Layman Online. Retrieved from
http://www.layman.org/pcusa-membership-declines-2013/
Lupfer, Jacob. (2014, June 21). Is the PCUSA *that* Liberal? Yes.
[Web log comment]. Retrieved from
The Declining Membership of the Presbyterian Church USA 24
http://www.jacoblupfer.com/blog/2014/6/21/is-the-pcusa-that-
liberal-yes
Parsons, Gradye. April 17, 2013. The Changing Church. [PowerPoint
slides]. Retrieved from http://vimeo.com/64906127
PewResearch Religion & Public Life Project. (2014). Religious
Landscape Survey. Retrieved from
http://religions.pewforum.org/reports#
Presbyterian Mission Agency Research Services. (2014). Comparative
Statistics. Retrieved from
https://www.presbyterianmission.org/ministries/research/stat
istics-reports-and-articles/