Volume 2 I 2019 College Football Betting Guide $19.99 - VSiN

Volume 2 I 2019 College Football Betting Guide

$19.99

22019 VSiN COLLEGE FOOTBALL BETTING GUIDE

2019 COLLEGE FOOTBALL BETTING GUIDECONTENTS

6PLAYOFF

PREDICTIONS

EDITORDATABASE MANAGER

CREATIVE DIRECTOR

COOVSiN

STEVE MAKINEN JASON LATUS MATT DEVINE BILL ADEE

photos by USA Today Sports Images

CONTRIBUTING WRITERS AND EDITORS: Kelley Bydlon, Ron Flatter, Brady Kannon,Mike Lombardi, Bruce Marshall, Patrick Meagher, Mitch Moss, Brent Musburger, Wes Reynolds, Paul Stone, Dave Tuley, Jonathan Von Tobel, and Matt Youmans

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COLLEGE FOOTBALL IS UPON USWHO’S WHO AFTER BIG TWOKEEP IT SIMPLE AND TAKE STOCK IN THIS HANDICAPPING ADVICEVSiN STAFF PREDICTIONSRANKING THE STARTING QBS BY CONFERENCEASSESSING THE NEW COACHING STAFFS IN COLLEGE FOOTBALLAMERICAN ATHLETIC CONFERENCE PREVIEWATLANTIC COAST CONFERENCE PREVIEWBIG 12 CONFERENCE PREVIEWBIG TEN CONFERENCE PREVIEWCONFERENCE USA PREVIEWFBS INDEPENDENTS PREVIEWMID-AMERICAN CONFERENCE PREVIEWMOUNTAIN WEST CONFERENCE PREVIEWPAC-12 CONFERENCE PREVIEWSOUTHEASTERN CONFERENCE PREVIEWSUN BELT CONFERENCE PREVIEW

232019 BET ON

AND BETAGAINST TEAMS

COMMON ABBREVIATIONS USED THROUGHOUT THIS GUIDEATS – Against the Spread • Avg - Average • DC - Defensive Coordinator • Def - Defense • Dog - Underdog

Eff Strg - Steve Makinen Effective Strength Rating • Fav - Favorite • FL – Final Line • FT – Final Total • HC - Head CoachH2h – Head-to-Head • L - Losses • L# - Last number of games • LY – Last Year • MOV – Margin of Victory • O - Over

OC - Offensive Coordinator • Off - Offense • OL – Opening Line • OT – Opening Total • Opp – OpponentO/U – Over/Under • PA - Points Against • Pct - Percentage • PF - Points For • PPG - Points Per Game

PYPG – Passing Yards per Page • RS - Returning Starters • RYPG – Rushing Yards per GameSM BR - Steve Makinen Bettors’ Rating • SM PR - Steve Makinen Power Rating • SU - Straight Up • TO - Turnovers

TYPG – Total Yards per Game • U - Under • W - Wins • YPP – Yards per Play • YPPT – Yards per Point • YPR – Yards per Rush


COLLEGE FOOTBALLIS UPON US

Hello college football enthusiasts! I have to assume that because you’ve chosen to purchase the 2019 VSiN College Football Betting Guide, at least you’re taking your preparations for the 2019 kickoff seriously. It figures to be a great season and in being along for the ride with VSiN, you’re giving yourself a great chance at making it a highly profitable one as well. This is just one of many resources that you’ll be able to utilize this season from VSiN, as we also offer 24-hour programming on our website and numerous other media, daily email newsletters, a weekly digital magazine called Point Spread Weekly that just celebrated publishing its 100th edition, and NEW FOR 2019, daily updated online statistics, trends, and other matchup data that you can access 24/7. With so much information coming from experts that the industry has come to trust, your betting fortunes are certainly in the right hands with VSiN. After all, as the legend Brent Musburger always says, “Cashing tickets is what it’s all about.”

Speaking of Brent, we are extremely pleased to have him contributing to this year’s College Football Betting Guide, as he brings us an Opening Lines column in which he addresses our cover subject: Can anyone prevent another Clemson-Alabama title game rematch? It is certainly the top story heading into the season, as both of those teams are loaded for 2019, and each has a quarterback that can stake claim to being the nation’s best. See what Brent has to say on the subject in his exclusive piece.

In this guide you will find plenty of features that are designed with a specific purpose in mind…helping you build your betting bankroll. We know you are using VSiN for a reason and we don’t step around the matter. We want you to win this season! Other well-respected preview magazines will give you a good idea of the players and teams, but they won’t give you the odds, stats, facts, and other handicapping tidbits that you will need to make it a big season at the betting window. Thank you for recognizing the difference.

Some of the articles you will find in this publication come from:

• Michael Lombardi, who gives us some sound betting advice to take into the season

• Paul Stone, who has five Bet On & Against Teams to recognize for 2019

• Myself, Steve Makinen, on ranking the quarterbacks across the country

• Myself, on the impact that each of the coaching changes will have on success and/or totals

We also have five of the most prominent contributors to VSiN year round offering up their predictions for

the various conferences across the college football landscape. Matt Youmans tackles the Pac-12, Big Ten, and Independents, Bruce Marshall breaks down the Big 12 & Sun Belt, Wes Reynolds gives us a look at the ACC & American, Dave Tuley shares his Takes on the MAC & SEC, and finally, Jonathan Von Tobel sizes up the Mountain West and Conference USA.

Add all of that to 2-page spreads on each of the 130 teams in FBS and you have the makings of a massive and valuable publication that you’ll want to keep handy all season long.

From last year, I recall getting all kinds of emails from readers asking me for tips on how to best utilize the info in the VSiN College Football Guide. To start off, I would say to read the editorials first. Our guys are experts that pour hours into studying the teams and massaging their approaches to wagering. If they spot a team that looks like a good OVER bet on a season win total wager, there’s probably a sound reason for it. Also, make special note of the key games they point out in the conference preview pages. These are spots that teams could be looking ahead in the prior week, or perhaps facing a letdown afterward. Finding value in a wager for a particular game can often be done when looking at it in the context of the games around it.

I have personally designed and uncovered the data for each of the team pages. I put a lot of stock into teams’ situational records in recent years, how they are trending as a program, who they tend to match up best & worst with on their annual schedules, and above almost anything else, the experience they have coming back for this season. This last point is not only done quantitatively by the amount of returning starters shown, but also qualitatively by the articles I have contributed to the guide. I have been handicapping football for well over 20 years, and there is very little I find more valuable than returning player experience and coaching staffs in college football, and quality of quarterback play.

If any of you are looking for the piece I ran last year on Teams Expected to Improve or Decline in 2019 based upon trends and stats of recent years, that article will be published in an upcoming Point Spread Weekly edition. If you aren’t on board for your subscription to that yet, what are you waiting for? There is a ton of great information like that published each and every week.

Enjoy the guide, and best of luck this season from everyone at VSiN.

Steve Makinen @[email protected]

BY STEVE MAKINEN - @STEVEMAKINEN


WHO’S WHO AFTER BIG TWOBY BRENT MUSBURGER - @BRENTMUSBURGER

Which four schools will make it to the College Football Playoff the last week of December? I begin with Clemson and Alabama, thus joining everybody else with an opinion.

I can only guess how many times Nick Saban has studied his low Tide (16-44) vs. Clemson in last season’s final. Obviously,

he thirsts for a rematch. And he may be rewarded.

Who will join the Big Two is a bigger puzzle. Leading candidates include Ohio State and Michigan of the Big Ten, Oklahoma and Texas of the Big 12, Oregon and Washington of the Pac-12, Georgia and Florida of the SEC and independent Notre Dame.

I’m predicting Michigan and Washington will join Clemson and Alabama.

Admittedly, Michigan is a risky choice. Part of my reasoning focuses on the committee, which has snubbed the Big Ten conference the last two years. That’s bad business. The Big Ten produces huge TV ratings, and that means more money for the colleges in the next contract. Barring a performance meltdown, I cannot see the conference being snubbed a third straight season.

The easy selection is Ohio State. The Buckeyes buried Michigan last year 62-39. But there are three reasons I’m looking elsewhere in the Big Ten.

1) No one knows if Ryan Day is as good a coach as Urban Meyer was, especially on game day. Urban stepped away a perfect 7-0 against “that team up north,” as Woody Hayes always referred to Michigan.

2) This year’s showdown will be played at Ann Arbor, and Jim Harbaugh is counting on senior QB Shea Patterson and an excellent offensive line to give him his first victory (0-4) against Ohio State

3) Dwayne Haskins is now a Washington Redskin quarterback, which means Day is counting on Georgia transfer Justin Fields to keep the Buckeyes atop the Big Ten and a return to the Final Four.

As for the final team, it boiled down to Oklahoma, Texas, Oregon and Washington. The schedule – and two more transfer QBs – led me to the Huskies of the Pac-12.

Coach Chris Petersen and his team lost their opener a year ago to Auburn 21-16 at Atlanta. This year Washington opens against Eastern Washington followed by California and Hawaii. All three games will be played at Seattle, and that signals a strong start for transfer QB Jacob Eason. Because of an injury his sophomore season

at Georgia, Eason never regained his job from Jake Fromm. There’s no shame in losing out to Fromm, and Eason has something to prove back in his home state.

Oregon is led by QB Justin Herbert, a future NFL first-rounder. But guess what? This season the Ducks draw the Auburn Tigers on Aug. 31 at Arlington, Texas. Their rivalry game against Washington will be played at Seattle. The schedule works against the Ducks as it does against Texas. The Longhorns host LSU early September, and that’s a tall order for a team replacing three offensive-line starters.

The last school I eliminated was Oklahoma. I have tremendous respect for Lincoln Riley’s program in Norman, but I’m not convinced Alabama transfer Jalen Hurts is a good fit for the Air Raid attack orchestrated by Baker Mayfield and Kyler Murray the last four seasons. There’s enormous pressure on OU’s offense to score enough to overcome a very average defense. But if Hurts blossoms, the Sooners will be in the Final Four argument.

So who wins the championship? Roll Tide! Alabama avenges last year’s debacle. Nick Saban wins his sixth national championship, and quarterback Tua Tagovailoa also hoists the Heisman. As usual, it’s a good time to be in Tuscaloosa.

Oregon Quarterback Justin Herbert


KEEP IT SIMPLE AND TAKE STOCK IN THIS HANDICAPPING ADVICEBY MICHAEL LOMBARDI - @MLOMBARDINFL

What do Patriots head coach Bill Belichick and Berkshire Hathaway chairman Warren Buffett have in common besides being ultra-successful in their chosen fields?

They both have a similar simple strategy they always

follow whether it’s relating to investing or on the football field which then helps make smart choices. Even though they work in different industries, both jobs require assessing talent, evaluating the value, predicting outcomes and understanding trends. Both men have gone against the grain, have been able to zig when everyone else zags, and because of their simple strategies they have soundly defeated the competition. And you can do the same thing when it comes to betting since wagering on teams is no different than investing in stocks.

But before you can win, you must set some simple rules as both Belichick and Buffet have done. No one is going to pick every game correctly, but if you follow some guidelines, your chances of winning will increase and as Brent always says: “Cashing tickets is what it’s all about.”

Here would be my advice to follow:

• When it comes to college betting, don’t attempt to know all the teams. Pick two or three conferences to spend time studying those teams and find hidden values. Don’t move around from conference to conference. Pick a few and get to know them exceptionally well. Invest in what you know…and nothing more.

• Use the month of September to watch the Power Five teams and don’t fall for the hype.

Force the great teams to prove they are talented on the field, not just on paper.

• Before making any bet, always ask the question: Why might this bet fail? Invert your decision and force yourself to defend your wager. Belichick tells the team all the time, we must avoid losing before we can win. Reverse engineer your work.

• NEVER NEVER NEVER bet with your heart and always leave emotion out of all decisions.

• It’s far better to buy a fantastic company at a fair price than an honest company at an incredible price.” – Warren Buffett. And this theory applies to football teams. Understand the difference between good and great and know when a team has a great moment, but cannot have a great season.

• Most news is noise, not news. When spending time researching, focus on the numbers of each team and the injuries, ignore the false bravado coming from the locker rooms. Focus on the important stuff, don’t let the media and noise confuse you; Belichick never gets distracted.

• The stock market is littered with people who claim to know the price of everything but don’t understand the value. The value of a team always lies with the coach, the quarterback and a team’s ability to close out games. Don’t ever go against coaches and quarterbacks. Just because a team is favored, don’t assume the value is correct.

• Find variances in the market. Find hidden gems like Army last year and keep riding them all season. Don’t run away from a good thing.

• Spend time studying. Work hard to make money and as Buffett and Belichick always claim, nothing is ever easy.


PLAYOFF PREDICTIONS#1 SEED

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BRENT MUSBURGER

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MATT YOUMANS

DAVE TULEY

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#3 SEEDJONATHAN VON TOBEL


PLAYOFF PREDICTIONS#1 SEED

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WES REYNOLDS

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BRUCE MARSHALL

POWER RATINGS

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#3 SEEDCONSENUS


VSiN STAFF PREDICTIONSMITCH MOSS, VSiN HOST - @MITCHMOSSRADIO

Nick Saban’s crew has one of the easiest nonconference schedules in the country. They do play Texas A&M and LSU off a bye-week, and Western Carolina is conveniently slated the week before their annual Iron Bowl tilt with Auburn. QB Tua Tagovailoa and this offense will be on a mission after missing out on both the Heisman Trophy and the national championship in 2018-2019. They are loaded at RB, WR, and across the board on defense. I think they get payback against Clemson after the Tigers mauled them in the title game a year ago.

Phil Steele told us on “Follow The Money” in June that he has this Clemson team pegged as a minimum 17-point favorite for every regular season game in 2019! Nobody is close to this program in the ACC. They can lose in Week 2 at home to Texas A&M, and still coast into a playoff slot. The offense can score as many points as it wants this year, but I am mildly concerned about the overall loss of talent on the defensive side of the ball. Realistically it’s a coin flip between Clemson and Alabama before the season starts. I would give the edge to Bama in a rematch, but things can change throughout the season and injuries can obviously play a big part in that for any team.

At first glance, the Bulldogs appear to have a solid chance to run the table in the regular season. They avoid LSU, and Alabama, and host Notre Dame as part of their nonconference schedule. Looking deeper you will notice a four-game stretch that is going to prove difficult for UGA. From Nov. 2 to Nov. 23 it plays Florida (in Jacksonville), Missouri (at home), at Auburn, and Texas A&M (at home). The first three teams - Florida, Missouri, and Auburn - are all coming off bye-weeks to prepare for the Dogs! If Georgia goes undefeated and eventually loses to Alabama in the SEC title game, I can foresee the committee placing this team in the playoff at 12/1.

I really wanted to pick Oregon as a wildcard entry this year, but I simply couldn’t pull the trigger with a neutral vs. Auburn, at Stanford, at Washington, at USC and at Arizona State. So, rather than having the Ducks in the playoff, I’ll go chalky with the Sooners. I need to see improvement with the OU defense to believe it, BUT bringing in Alex Grinch as the new defensive coordinator should help. As much as that unit still needs to prove it to me, I trust the offense even more. Yes, that’s even considering how much talent they lost on that side of the ball, which was a ton. It obviously includes Heisman Trophy winning/No. 1 overall pick in the draft Kyler Murray. The reason why I trust it is simple - Lincoln Riley. Two years as head coach, two different Heisman Trophy-winning QB’s. That’s enough for me to think Jalen Hurts will run this offense at an extremely high level. OU won games 51-46, 48-47, 55-40, and 59-56 a year ago. The defense can’t be any worse, but the offense might be nearly as good.

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VSiN STAFF PREDICTIONS

2018 was an absolute cakewalk of a season for the Tigers, and I’m not sure how different this year will be. Yes, Alabama is still around, but Clemson proved who the top dog is in college football right now after destroying the Tide 44-16 in the National Championship game. The ACC is not any tougher this year and Clemson should once again easily take care of business in the conference (and this comes from an FSU grad). The Tigers get Trevor Lawrence back, who might end up being the best QB to ever play at Clemson (Sorry Deshaun Watson). They also return three starters on the offensive line, their top three receivers, and one of the most dynamic running backs in the nation with Travis Etienne. He only averaged 8.1 YPC last season. So yes, Clemson is easily my pick to win the National Championship. My favorite bet this offseason was “Clemson to make the college football playoffs” at -250. It is one of only two bets I’ve made in the offseason futures market (the other is coming up) and that number is long gone now. Despite the -250 price, it is hard for me to see this team even losing a game before the playoffs.

Behind Clemson to me, but clearly still above everyone else is Alabama. I know you’ll see a lot of this from our staff, but the stars do seem to be aligning again this season for both of these teams. Just like Clemson, Alabama returns a LOT of stars, and of course, has some great depth to work with as usual. Tua’s back and so is one of the top groups of wide receivers in the country. This team was 9-0 last season in the SEC and beat those opponents by 29.7 points per game. They’ll have one of the easiest schedules in the SEC this year as they avoid both Georgia and Florida in the regular season. So yes, I think they’ll roll pretty easily into the college football playoffs as well, and if they do end up facing Clemson again there, it will be hard to shake the revenge factor when betting that game.

The Bulldogs played Alabama tough in the SEC championship game last year before blowing it at the end. They’ll likely get a shot at revenge. Yes, they lose a few key pieces from last year’s team, but they should have a strong year running the football as they’ll lean on Junior D’Andre Swift. Last year, Swift averaged 6.4 YPC while totaling over 1,000 yards. He also found the endzone on 10 of those carries. Expect to see a lot of him this season. Yes, Georgia does have a couple of tough spots on its schedule, but last year it lost to two teams: Alabama and LSU. Guess what? Neither one of them are on the Bulldogs schedule this season. Regular season schedule at least.

Were my top 3 choices too chalky for you? Well, here you go. I’m taking the bait on Nebraska this year and have already bet on them at 60-1 to win the national championship. Now, do I really think they’re better than any of the three teams above? No, but I’m just hoping for a playoff appearance before hedging out. I personally think the Big Ten is more open this year than most. I think Jim Harbaugh is overrated at Michigan and will stumble again this year and who knows what we’ll get with Ohio State. A new coach and a new quarterback are not something I usually like to back. I do think Scott Frost will be better in his second season as Nebraska’s coach, but I’m far more excited to see what quarterback Adrian Martinez can do this season, and he could have a big year. Oh, and the schedule is pretty easy for Nebraska. Nothing to really worry about early in the out-of-conference schedule. Their two toughest games in conference are against Ohio State and Wisconsin, which certainly will be difficult games, but both games will be played in Lincoln.

KELLEY BYDLON, VSiN PRODUCER - @KELLEYVSIN

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After kicking Nick Saban’s butt by 28 points in the national championship game, Dabo Swinney gets the nod. The Tigers, who might get an unexpected scare or two, are the safest bet to reach the playoff. Sophomore quarterback Trevor Lawrence would have been the No. 1 pick in this year’s NFL Draft, yet he’ll have to wait two more seasons, and that’s lucky for Swinney.

The Bulldogs let Alabama off the hook in the teams’ past two meetings. In their third high-stakes game in three seasons, Kirby Smart will finally avoid the dumb coaching mistakes and Jake Fromm will outplay Tua in the SEC title game.

With Urban Meyer out of the picture, it’s tempting to pick Michigan in the Big Ten. But this fact remains: The Wolverines have dropped 14 of the past 15 in the one-sided rivalry, so the pressure is on and Jim Harbaugh has a lot to prove against the Buckeyes.

Two SEC teams in the playoff? Despite the complaints, it’s probably going to happen after the Tide run the table in the regular season. Saban will have a battle-tested team after Alabama takes down nonconference giants Duke, New Mexico State and Western Carolina.

MATT YOUMANS, VSiN HOST - @MATTYOUMANS247

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I have been very effusive about my belief in Trevor Lawrence as the top quarterback in college football, and you’ll see from my list that I’ve chosen four teams whose starting QB’s are both solid and experienced. I feel the only thing that could prevent another run to the title by Clemson would be an injury to Lawrence. This offense is going to be explosive with eight starters back, and the defense, while only having four returnees, is loaded with highly rated players who’ve been waiting in the wings for their opportunity. The only game where I feel the Tigers won’t be HEAVILY favored is the season finale at South Carolina.

Why go against the Tide? Both figuratively and literally. Everything seems to be pointing to yet another Clemson-Alabama title game rematch, and with Alabama now the one with a chip on its shoulder from the beatdown in January, I think this will be a team that shows a different type of motivation and focus that was perhaps missing last year. Talent-wise, no question this team can make it back. Avoiding a stumble in the regular season and/or in the SEC title game will line up the rematch.

While I am not a huge believer in Jalen Hurts or his ability to take over for where Baker Mayfield and Kyler Murray left off, I am realistic in that there doesn’t seem to even be a challenger to Oklahoma in the Big 12 this season. In fact, my projections have the Sooners winning three more games than any other conference rival in the regular season. This year’s schedule is very manageable because of it.

Naturally the choice here comes down to Michigan, Ohio State, Georgia, or some unexpected team. Of course there will be some teams that surprise and are in the mix at the end of the year, but I am going to go with the Wolverines and senior QB Shea Patterson. This offense might be a stronger unit than the defense this year and that would be a real good thing, as the defense, like Clemson’s, is loaded with high level athletes ready to replace NFL draftees. The schedule lines up favorably with Notre Dame, Michigan State, and Ohio State all at the Big House this fall.

STEVE MAKINEN, VSiN PSW EDITOR - @STEVEMAKINEN



BRADY KANNON, VSiN HOST - @LASVEGASGOLFER

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If you look at the prices to make the College Football Playoff, it appears that the oddsmakers feel there will be two SEC representatives and I don’t disagree. This is part handicap and part money theory – like the NCAA rooting for the Yankees and the Red Sox’s of the world to keep the college football cash flow in high gear. Other than that, I think we all know Nick Saban will send out one of the most talented, deepest, squads in the whole country once again. Finally, there is the revenge angle. After getting blown out by Clemson in the championship game last season, The Tide will be back in a big way to make amends for that.

This is as simple as too much talent and too weak of a conference in which they reside. I mean, what’s the “No” that they won’t make the playoff? +8000? Barring injury, Tigers are in.

This is my 2nd leg of the SEC two team parlay that gets in. They’ve nearly beaten Alabama in two straight seasons and should have at least once. Jake Fromm is an excellent leader and now he is that much more experienced. Let’s also remember that many outlets have called Georgia’s recruiting classes under Kirby Smart the tops in the country. There’s enough talent here to win the whole thing.

This is my wild card. I think Jim Harbaugh gets a bit of a bad rap when in truth, he is a heckuva coach. He’s always had a great history developing quarterbacks and Shea Patterson will be crucial for whatever this team does, good or bad, in 2019-2020. The Pac-12 isn’t sending anyone to the playoff, I believe Oklahoma will skip a beat this year, ‘Bama and Clemson have to be on every list of this type, and Georgia is the third-best team in the country in my opinion. Ohio State will feel the affects of Urban Meyer not being on the sidelines and the Wolverines will take advantage of that opportunity so gimme the Tide, Tigers, Bulldogs, and Maize & Blue to go to this year’s Final Four.

Even though my top three are the usual suspects, I hate chalk. So I am fishing for a path for a team carrying 6-1 preseason odds to come through. Since it does not face Alabama in the crossover, Georgia can run the table into the SEC Championship game. I am presuming that a new group of receivers will be able to step up for Jake Fromm, and that the defense will do better stopping the run for Kirby Smart. If the Bulldogs pull off the upset over the Crimson Tide on Dec. 7 in Atlanta, I am counting on them getting the #1 seed in the playoff. That will leave Tua Tagovailoa and a reloaded Alabama defense to avenge last winter’s loss to Trevor Lawrence and Clemson in the Peach Bowl. It is hard to imagine Nick Saban failing in that game, especially if Najee Harris provides balance by capping a big season grinding out yards. Presuming that Oklahoma loses a shootout sometime during the Big 12 season and that the Pac-12 lives down to its recent form, the Big Ten winner would get the fourth spot and draw Georgia in the Fiesta Bowl. The thought here is that Ohio State’s biggest obstacle to another conference championship is not a new coach or new quarterback or the false annual alarm that is Michigan but a soft, nonconference schedule that could sound a clunk with the committee. Still, a 13-0 record is very possible, and it resonates. And there may well be three of them - belonging to Georgia, Clemson and Ohio State along with a 12-1 Alabama. The biggest fly in this ointment may be having an all-SEC national championship game, leaving the Bulldogs with the challenge to beat the Tide twice in a little more than five weeks let alone Smart becoming the first of Saban’s assistants to beat him. Twice. But that is part of why the Bulldogs are 6-1 and not 2-1 or 5-2. But if a Georgia-Alabama showdown does pan out, then ‘Bama will be there to provide a betting hedge, and I will have my feet up with a big cigar and at least one winning ticket even before they kick off Jan. 13 in New Orleans.

#1 #2 #3 #4RON FLATTER, VSiN HOST - @RONFLATTER



Very simple with the top two. No need to overthink. We’ve had five college football playoffs and aside from Ohio State in year one, it’s been ALL Bama and Clemson. I’ll go with Clemson at No. 1 for another simple reason: Trevor Lawrence. Would have been the #1 overall pick if he came out this year and CFB has to deal with him for two more years. Dabo has started to even up with Saban in recruiting and has surpassed the master when it comes to keeping assistants happy and continuity in the program. The Tigers are loaded again.

Shocker. I do Like the revenge year angle for Saban and his hyper awareness of not letting the team feel they matter until all is said and done. Saban has made excuses for getting blown out in the championship game and he lost pretty much every assistant on his staff. HOWEVER, Heisman favorite Tua Tagovailoa and the best WR’s in the country led by Jerry Jeudy. Huge recruiting class replaces much on defense but it’s rinse / repeat for Alabama. Terrible nonconference schedule and pissed Saban is bad for the SEC and CFB.

Georgia is an easy No. 3 on this list for me. The Bulldogs are easily the class of a weak SEC east. Kirby Smart has the best job in the country. Put a fence around Georgia, recruit the state, and you can win a national championship. He’s done an insanely good job recruiting. Georgia has the best OL in the country protecting future pro Jake Fromm at QB. Four deep at RB led by D’andre Swift. The Bulldogs are so deep on defense it’s not worth listing names, just know Georgia will make Bama sweat in the SEC.

A lot of Michigan Love out of the Big Ten but there’s an overreaction to Meyer leaving and Ryan Day replacing him at Ohio State. I’ll take Ohio State as my fourth-best team in the country. Day is a stud, He got a feel of what being a head coach feels like in Columbus, he’ll be fine. As for the team, replacing Dwayne Haskins at QB is the obvious question. Justin Fields is immediately eligible after transferring from GA. Fields was a legit five-star dual-threat recruit out of high school who played in the SEC and has a chip on his shoulder. J.K. Dobbins is back at RB and he is lethal. The Buckeyes welcome Penn State, Michigan State and Wisconsin to the Horseshoe, but the season should come down to the Nov. 30 matchup in Ann Arbor against Michigan.

PATRICK MEAGHER, VSiN HOST - @THEWRAPRADIO

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RANKING THE STARTING QBS BY CONFERENCEBY STEVE MAKINEN - @STEVEMAKINEN

If you read my work regularly in Point Spread Weekly, you would know that I am a huge believer in the importance of the starting quarterback position in college football. To me there is no more important job, as the plays a QB executes or fails to execute are almost always the difference in a team winning a game or covering the point spread. Furthermore, with turnovers being such a key part of how games play out, the one most responsible for these are the quarterbacks. Those signal callers comfortable in their systems and confident in their abilities can take a team to heights previously unknown.

Let’s take for instance the situation at Clemson the last few years. With Deshaun Watson and Trevor Lawrence under center, the Tigers won national titles, twice in three years. Sandwiched in between those titles was a year they came up short, losing in the semifinals, and I firmly believe it was because the starting QB that season was Kelly Bryant, who while not a horrible option, was clearly not the level of performer that Watson was or Lawrence is for the program.

For bettors preparing for the 2019 season, it pays to know the quality of the quarterbacks manning their respective teams. To me, there are four different scenarios for evaluating. In cases where the starter is returning from the prior season with the same coaching staff in place, the assessment is as easy as looking at last year’s performance and making minor adjustments for the players that will be surrounding him this season. When the starter is the same but will be playing in a new offense under a new head coach and/or offensive coordinator, it gets a little trickier, but for the most part you can make some assumptions about the quality of that player. In the case of a new starter taking over the same system that has been in place, the best way to analyze is to compare the physical attributes and recruiting grades of the new player, and then perhaps do some reading of local coverage on that team in regards to spring practices, scrimmages, and other tidbits. Where the analysis gets most unpredictable is when a new quarterback takes the controls for a new coaching staff at a school. There is really no concrete way to predict the success level of the new combination as compared to the previous regime, and in this case, the more resourceful you can be in digging up info the better your chances.

With all of that said, I thought I’d run through all of the expected quarterback situations across the country and do a ranking of the teams in this key area by conference. Naturally, the better the quarterback situation, the more success that team is bound to

achieve in 2019. In all, there are 87 out of 130 teams across FBS that have a starting quarterback from 2018 returning. This doesn’t mean that they were full-time starters, OR that they will be in that position again in 2019, but it does provide an overall value on how much returning experience there is this season. I’ll make note of specific unique situations regarding returnees in the rankings.

In case you’re wondering about my overall rankings, I have not been shy on the air with VSiN in terms of my affection for Lawrence’s overall size, arm strength, mobility, and overall football savvy, and I’ve even gone so far as a Packers’ fan to encourage the team to do whatever it takes to line up to somehow obtain him as Aaron Rodgers’ eventual replacement.

In any case, enjoy the rankings, and feel free to send me ([email protected]) your comments, kudos, objections, and any other feedback you deem necessary after viewing. And of course, good luck with your college football wagering this fall. Note that the player in parenthesis is the expected starter. This of course can and will change in some circumstances prior to Week 1 games.

1. CLEMSON (Trevor Lawrence): Top QB in the country in my opinion. Size, arm strength, mobility, 30/4 TD/Int ratio in 20182. VIRGINIA (Bryce Perkins): Original Arizona State recruit and JC transfer, good numbers last year, over 2600 yards passing and 900 rushing3. FLORIDA ST (James Blackman): Had decent year as freshman, one start last year, tall wiry kid4. MIAMI FL (Tate Martell): Ohio State transfer, 5-star recruit with dual-threat ability. Small though, only 5’11”5. LOUISVILLE (Jawon Pass): Struggled last year with rest of teammates but big percent mobile, thought of as heir apparent to Lamar Jackson6. SYRACUSE (Tommy DeVito): Filled in reasonably well for injured Eric Dungey last year, 6’2”, strong kid7. WAKE FOREST (Sam Hartman): Smaller of the top two QB options at Wake, 16/8 TD/Int ratio in nine starts last year8. NC STATE (Matt McKay): Prototype size with big arm and a dual-threat. First-time starter, 7 of 8 in only action last year9. NORTH CAROLINA (Sam Howell): De-committed from Florida State. Highly rated in-state recruit that broke NC passing records10. VIRGINIA TECH (Ryan Willis): Decent but not flashy numbers after taking over for injured Josh

ACC


RANKING THE STARTING QBS BY CONFERENCE

Jackson last year, Kansas transfer11. BOSTON COLLEGE (Anthony Brown): Third-year starter hasn’t put up big numbers consistently12. PITTSBURGH (Kenny Pickett): Started all 14 games last year, threw just 12 TD’s and struggled in bowl game13. DUKE (Quentin Harris): Started twice last year but first full-time job as a senior, dual-threat14. GEORGIA TECH (Lucas Johnson): Junior with good size but seeing first action after strong spring game, having to learn new pro-style attack

1. HOUSTON (D’Eriq King): Top QB in the AAC, now running offense for Dana Holgorsen. Small frame but quick, agile, and a fantastic playmaker that produced 50 TD’s in 20182. MEMPHIS (Brady White): Original Arizona State recruit had 14 starts with a 26/9 TD/Int ratio last year, numbers below Memphis predecessors3. CINCINNATI (Desmond Ridder): 6’5” kid, solid 20/5 TD/Int ratio in 2018 in 12 starts4. SMU (Shane Buechele): Texas transfer with two years eligibility left and 19 starts under his belt, threw 30 TD’s in his Longhorns career5. TULANE (Justin McMillan): LSU transfer that got six starts for Tulane in ‘18, throwing for 1,304 yards and 10/4 TD/Int ratio6. EAST CAROLINA (Holton Ahlers): Had three huge games for ECU last year out of his five starts to earn 2019 job, in all 12/3 TD/Int ratio for 240-pound kid with running ability7. UCF (Brandon Wimbush): McKenzie Milton injury leaves job open for Notre Dame transfer Wimbush. Only modest numbers and success for Irish in 16 starts8. SOUTH FLORIDA (Blake Barnett): Former Alabama recruit Barnett started 10 games last year for USF but had just a 12/11 TD/Int ratio9. NAVY (Malcolm Perry): Typical small, quick, and agile Navy QB to run option offense, gained over 1100 yards rushing in ‘1810. TULSA (Zach Smith): Baylor transfer played two years for Bears, posting modest numbers of 56 percent completions, 21/15 TD/Int ratio11. TEMPLE (Anthony Russo): Good size but only 14/14 TD/Int ratio in Geoff Collins’ offense, now learning new system of Rod Carey12. CONNECTICUT (Steven Krajewski): Redshirt freshman saw very limited action last year and appears to have won battle of attrition for QB job

1. TEXAS (Sam Ehlinger): Coming off great season, Ehlinger is the face of Texas football for ‘19, but only one of eight starters back, had 25/5 TD/Int ratio2. OKLAHOMA (Jalen Hurts): Alabama transfer that was 24-2 in 26 starts with the Tide, mobile QB that will be hard-pressed to match the numbers of last two OU QB’s3. TEXAS TECH (Alan Bowman): Had injury problems as a freshman in ‘18 but started seven games while throwing for 2,600+ yards, will adjust to new Matt Wells offense4. OKLAHOMA ST (Spencer Sanders): Good athlete with big arm figures to be next in line to put up big numbers for Mike Gundy in OSU attack5. BAYLOR (Charlie Brewer): Junior QB with 16 starts on his ledger, has thrown for 27 TD’s against 13 interceptions, average size at 6’1”

6. KANSAS ST (Skylar Thompson): Has started 14 games in his first two seasons, threw for 1,391 yards last year with 9/4 TD/Int ratio7. IOWA ST (Brock Purdy): Decent dual-threat quarterback who started eight games as a freshman, ending season with 16/7 TD/Int ratio8. WEST VIRGINIA (Austin Kendall): Wildcard quarterback in the Big 12 for ‘19, transferred from Oklahoma after seeing limited action as frosh percent sophomore, good arm strength9. TCU (Alex Delton): Good running quarterback that had six starts at Kansas State in ‘18 but threw just two touchdowns10. KANSAS (Thomas MacVittie): Started career at Pitt before going JUCO last year, good sized kid at 6’5” 215 but learning new system

1. NEBRASKA (Adrian Martinez): Has Cornhuskers fans excited for the future, Martinez had big freshman season accounting for 25 TD’s, a number which should improve in ‘19

2. MICHIGAN (Shea Patterson): Senior season, has 23 starts to his record, threw for 22/7 TD/Int ratio in ‘18 but consistency was missing3. NORTHWESTERN (Hunter Johnson): Clemson transfer that can run percent throw, very highly recruited out of high school, best talent for Northwestern at QB perhaps ever4. OHIO ST (Justin Fields): Very highly touted recruit by Georgia, played in three games for Bulldogs, better running ability than passing5. MARYLAND (Josh Jackson): Virginia Tech transfer, missed most of last season with injury but has 16 starts on his ledger, could put up huge numbers6. IOWA (Nate Stanley): Underrated and consistent

AMERICAN ATHLETIC

BIG 12

BIG TEN

Nebraska Quarterback Adrian Martinez



quarterback for Iowa the last two seasons, with 13 starts and 26 TD’s in EACH of those years, big kid at 240+ lbs7. PURDUE (Elijah Sindelar): Sindelar is officially a junior and has eight starts for Purdue back in ‘17, 6’4” kid with big arm8. WISCONSIN (Graham Mertz): Highly touted freshman QB that chose Wisconsin over the likes of Clemson percent Alabama, big arm, great athlete9. MICHIGAN ST (Brian Lewerke): Struggled with 8/11 TD/Int ratio last year but has 25 career starts in three different seasons for MSU10. INDIANA (Peyton Ramsey): Has 16 career starts for Indiana, accounted for 24 TD’s a year ago, but could be pushed by freshman Michael Penix for job11. ILLINOIS (Isaiah Williams): Freshman is highest rated recruit for Illinois in over 10 years, dual-threat playmaking capability but VERY small at 5’10” 17512. PENN ST (Sean Clifford): 6’2” sophomore appeared in four games last year, has big shoes to fill after replacing Trace McSorley13. MINNESOTA (Tanner Morgan): Six starts last year as a freshman, modest 9/6 TD/Int ratio, not a clear cut option heading into ‘1914. RUTGERS (McLane Carter): Senior transfer that saw limited action at Texas Tech, figures to be stopgap measure until QB of the future is found

1. NORTH TEXAS (Mason Fine): Only 5’11” 185 but has had stellar college career at UNT (36 starts), including 27/5 TD/Int ratio last year and 300 straight passes without a pick

2. FLA ATLANTIC (Deondre Francois): Florida State transfer with 25 starts and over 6,000 yards passing already in his career, playing senior season3. FLA INTERNATIONAL (James Morgan): Had big year in 2018 after transferring from Bowling Green, 26/7 TD/Int ratio, 6’4” pure passer, missed bowl game win4. SOUTHERN MISS (Jack Abraham): Started nine games last year as sophomore and completed 73 percent of his 305 attempts for modest 7.70 yards per attempt, played JUCO as frosh5. MARSHALL (Isaiah Green): Had nine starts last year as a freshman including last six games, modest 15/10 TD/Int ratio6. UAB (Tyler Johnston): Had five starts last year as freshman, with 1,300+ yards passing and 350+ rushing, including big bowl game effort7. LOUISIANA TECH (J’Mar Smith): Has 27 starts now for Bulldogs, decent dual-threat ability, has 33/16 TD/Int ratio career but just 15/10 last year8. W KENTUCKY (Ty Storey): Grad transfer from Arkansas, had nine starts last year but only 11/10 TD/Int ratio, mobile QB9. OLD DOMINION (Messiah deWeaver): Have seen three different starters named on various depth chart sites, deWeaver is biggest (6’5”) and highest rated option, having first landed at Michigan State before going JUCO10. TX-SAN ANTONIO (Frank Harris): Harris was injured all of last year and was one of five quarterbacks in hunt for starting spot in spring, Lowell Narcisse, a highly rated recruit at 6’4” 230 could challenge11. CHARLOTTE (Chris Reynolds): A seemingly wide-open race for starting spot, Reynolds (5’11) with six starts last year will have tough time holding off Brett Kean, a senior and transfer from South Florida12. RICE (Tom Stewart): Grad transfer from Harvard, started nine games with sharp 14/2 TD/Int ratio there, 6’3” 22013. MIDDLE TENN ST (Asher O’Hara): Played only two games as freshman going 9 for 20 passing, only 6’0”, could be pushed by 6’5” JUCO transfer Randall Johnson14. UTEP (Kai Locksley): Locksley struggled last year in eight starts throwing nine interceptions against three touchdowns and less than 50 percent completions

1. BYU (Zach Wilson): Started final seven games of season including bowl game in which he completed all 18 passes he threw, 12/3 TD/Int ratio, big things expected2. NOTRE DAME (Ian Book): Decent first year as starter last year starting nine games with 19/7 TD/Int ratio, only 6’0” however3. ARMY (Kelvin Hopkins): Typical small, savvy Army option QB had 23 total TD’s last year, plus threw AND ran for 1,000+ yards, now a senior4. LIBERTY (Stephen Calvert): Fourth-year starter at Liberty with 30 career starts to his record, had 18 interceptions last year however, pocket passer5. NEW MEXICO ST (Josh Adkins): Started eight games as frosh last year with 13 TD’s and 2,500+ yards, has makings of good long career as NMSU starter6. MASSACHUSETTS (Ross Comis): Have seen senior Comis, junior Andrew Brito, and senior Michael Curtis all atop depth charts, Comis had 14/3 TD/Int ratio so could be decent option

CONFERENCE USA

FBS INDEPENDENTS

North Texas Quarterback Mason Fine



1. OHIO U (Nathan Rourke): Third-year starter after two straight years being 2nd team All-MAC, career 40/15 TD/Int ratio, also ran for 15 TD’s in ‘18, big time playmaker

2. KENT ST (Woody Barrett): Original Auburn recruit, accounted for over 3,000 yards and 18 TD’s last year in 12 starts, dual-threat ability at 6’2” 2363. W MICHIGAN (Jon Wassink): Senior has battled injuries and has 17 career starts, last year accounted for 22 TD’s in nine games4. TOLEDO (Mitchell Guadagni): Not a sure-fire starter at this point, 6’2” senior started seven games, going 13/3 TD/Int ratio, while challenger Eli Peters (18/7) started six5. C MICHIGAN (Quinten Dormady): Originally with Tennessee, played three years there starting five games, 6’4” 215 SEC level talent6. E MICHIGAN (Mike Glass): Had 61.5 percent completion percentage and 9/1 TD/Int ratio in three starts last year, can also run (412 RY/6 TDs)7. AKRON (Kato Nelson): Mobile quarterback the likes of which new HC Tom Arth utilized at Chattanooga, had 15/8 TD/Int ratio last year as a sophomore8. N ILLINOIS (Marcus Childers): Dual-threat option with 21 career starts heading into junior season in new offense, was sacked 43 times in 14 games9. BOWLING GREEN (Grant Loy): Big 6’5” 226 kid that threw 12 passes as a sophomore last year but considered a running quarterback10. BUFFALO (Kyle Vantrease): Sophomore that threw just nine passes last year, not much experience

elsewhere as team looks to replace Tyree Jackson11. BALL ST (Drew Plitt): Has three starts in each of his first two seasons but just a combined 9/11 TD/Int ratio, not real mobile either12. MIAMI OHIO (Jackson Williamson): Sophomore that appeared in two games last year without a pass attempt, could be pushed by freshman Brett Gabbert, a higher rated recruit

1. UTAH ST (Jordan Love): Love was phenomenal for former coach Matt Wells and is onle of only two starters back, at 6’4 230 could be better this year with far lesser numbers2. HAWAII (Cole McDonald): Threw for 36 TD’s in ‘18 and has eight other offensive starters back around him, big for Hawaii QB at 6’4”, should post big numbers again3. SAN DIEGO ST (Ryan Agnew): Started seven games last year, now a senior, had 10/6 TD/Int ratio, somewhat dual-threat and has top three rushers back around him4. COLORADO ST (Collin Hill): Junior who has four starts in each of his first two seasons, coming off torn ACL, not great numbers in 2018 (7/7 TD/Int ratio, 6.86 PYA)5. UNLV (Armani Rogers): Has less than 50 percent completion percentage in 14 career starts, missed time last year with foot injury, highly rated signee two years ago though6. AIR FORCE (DJ Hammond): Hammond and fellow competitor Isaiah Sanders had similar numbers last year but Hammond accounted for 14 TD’s, Sanders 10, and Hammond is a bit stronger and perhaps better at running the offense7. NEW MEXICO (Tevaka Tuioti): Started three games as sophomore last year accounting for 6 TD’s, charted ahead of Sheriron Jones, who started seven games in ‘18 and was original Tennessee recruit8. BOISE ST (Chase Cord): Very little experience in Boise State QB rotation, sophomore Cord (6’2”) has thrown nine passes, but could be pushed by highly rated recruit Hank Bachmeier9. SAN JOSE ST (Josh Love): Had respectable 14/9 TD/Int ratio for 1-11 team in ‘18, not much of a running threat, 6’2”, returns with six other offensive starters10. NEVADA (Cristian Solano): Threw 45 passes last year with 0 TD’s and 4 interceptions, started in 21-3 loss to Fresno State, could be pushed by Florida State transfer Malik Henry11. WYOMING (Sean Chambers): 6’3” mobile QB who ran for more yards than passed last year (329-266) but was still able to redshirt and is a freshman, good size at 6’3” 21812. FRESNO ST (Jorge Reyna): Big shoes to fill in replacing Marcus McMaryion who had 33 TD’s, senior JC transfer who threw 12 passes for FSU in ‘18, 6’0” 215

1. OREGON (Justin Herbert): Heisman Trophy candidate has sparkling 63/13 TD/Int ratio in 28 career starts, big kid at 6’6” 233 has improved every year2. STANFORD (K.J. Costello): Has 20 starts in first two years and 43/15 TD/Int ratio, not much of a runner but good size (6’5”) and pure passer3. ARIZONA (Khalil Tate): Has 20 career starts, posted impressive 26/8 TD/Int ratio in ‘18, clear leader of Wildcats offense and big year is expected

MAC

MOUNTAIN WEST

PAC 12

Ohio QuarterbackNathan Rourke



4. USC (JT Daniels): Highly touted QB that started 11 games as freshman with 14/10 TD/Int ratio, 6’3”, big things expected in year two5. WASHINGTON (Jacob Eason): Transfer from Georgia had 13 starts there in two years, now a junior, 6’6” 227 with huge arm, replaces 4-year starter Jake Browning6. WASHINGTON ST (Gage Gubrud): Grad transfer from FCS power Eastern Washington, much heralded at that level, 6’2” 205 modest size for Pac-127. UCLA (Dorian Thompson-Robinson): Had six starts last year as highly touted freshman before shoulder injury, decent numbers but should be better in year two of Chip Kelly offense with nine offensive starters back8. COLORADO (Steven Montez): Senior had decent 2018 season, throwing for 2,800+ yards and 19 TD’s, 6’5” 230 big kid who has 27 career starts and figures to climb Colorado record books in ‘199. UTAH (Tyler Huntley): Third-year starter has 19 starts on his ledger with modest 27 TD passes, could be pushed for job by Jason Shelley and Cameron Rising10. OREGON ST (Jake Luton): One of tallest QB’s in country at 6’7”, has battled injury woes and has only nine starts over last two years, posted 10/4 TD/Int ratio in ‘1811. CALIFORNIA (Chase Garbers): Had 10 starts as a freshman, threw for 1500+ yards, ran for 400+, 6’2” 205 QB returns with only three other offensive starters12. ARIZONA ST (Dillon-Sterling Cole): Have to replace multi-year starter Manny Wilkins, DSC was highly rated recruit that has one start as frosh, threw two passes in ‘18

1. ALABAMA (Tua Tagovailoa): Started all 15 games for ‘Bama last year amassing incredible 43/6 TD/Int ratio and nearly 4,000 yards passing, Heisman frontrunner

2. GEORGIA (Jake Fromm): If not for Tua, best QB in SEC, has 54-/3 TD/Int ratio in first two seasons, could put up even bigger numbers if more was asked of him3. FLORIDA (Feleipe Franks): Highly touted out of high school, struggled freshman year but came on in ‘18, going 24/6 TD/Int ratio, 6’6” 240 dual-threat playmaker4. TEXAS A&M (Kellen Mond): Now has 21 starts for Aggies, dual-threat playmaker accounted for 31 TD’s in ‘18, should be in for big 2019 campaign5. LSU (Joe Burrow): Started career at Ohio State before transferring prior to ‘18, accounted for 23 TD’s in ‘18 in 13 starts last year including huge bowl effort6. SOUTH CAROLINA (Jake Bentley): Entering fourth year as starter, has 32 starts to his record, posted career high numbers last year (3171 yards, 27 TDs), tough competitor7. TENNESSEE (Jarrett Guarantano): Junior now has 18 career starts, threw for 12/3 TD/Int ratio percent 1900+ yards last year, good size at 6’4” 215 and is surrounded by nine other returning offensive starters8. MISSOURI (Kelly Bryant): Transfer from Clemson, started in between Watson percent Lawrence, had modest numbers there by comparison9. AUBURN (Joey Gatewood): Played in one game as true frosh last year, highly touted at 6’5” 237, has big arm but listed ahead of 5* recruit Bo Nix right now10. ARKANSAS (Ben Hicks): Grad transfer who started 33 games at SMU, originally recruited by and played for Arkansas coach Chad Morris11. OLE MISS (Matt Corral): Played four games as true frosh last year then redshirted, completed 73% of his 22 attempts, 6’1” 205 small by SEC standards12. KENTUCKY (Terry Wilson): Original Oregon recruit before JUCO, had modest numbers last year for UK (1,800+ yards, 11/8 TD/Int ratio) in 13 starts13. VANDERBILT (Riley Neal): Neal making big jump in competition coming over from Ball State, had 46 TD’s in three years, has good size at 6’5” 21814. MISSISSIPPI ST (Keytaon Thompson): 6’4” 225 junior has seen limited action in first two seasons, threw six TD’s in 18 completions (46%) last year, not locked in as starter yet however

1. APPALACHIAN ST (Zac Thomas): Accounted for 31 TD’s last year for Mountaineers, now a junior, has nine other starters back on offense alongside him2. LA MONROE (Caleb Evans): Dual-threat QB that had 16 TD’s throwing 10 TD’s rushing in ‘18, has decent size at 6’2” and had 17/6 TD/Int ratio in ‘17 so has shown ability3. GEORGIA ST (Dan Ellington): Senior was leading rusher for GSU last year (625 yards) and threw for 2,100+ as well, good size for Sun Belt at 6’3” 205, should be better with experienced unit around him4. TROY (Kaleb Barker): Barker started fast last year with 13 total TD’s in six games before tearing ACL, now a senior, has played in 23 games for Troy5. GA SOUTHERN (Shai Werts): Threw 10 TD’s versus 0 interceptions in 118 total attempts in ‘18, third-year starter has started 23 games despite smaller stature, 5’11” 2006. TEXAS ST UNIV (Gresch Jensen): Shown #1 on depth chart despite two QB’s from ‘18 being back, JUCO kid with size 6’2” 225 and eight other starters back on offense7. ARKANSAS ST (Logan Bonner): Has difficult task of replacing Justice Hanson, a big-time performer in last two years for ASU, 6’1” 215 with nine games in mop up duty8. COASTAL CAROLINA (Fred Payton): Started four games and threw 6 TD’s a year ago but was efficient with 65% completion percentage as a freshman9. LA LAFAYETTE (Levi Lewis): Small at 5’11” 185, started three games as frosh, then played in all 14 last year (no starts)10. S ALABAMA (Cephus Johnson): Limited action as freshman, completed but 7 of 19 passes, started one game last year, struggled and was replaced

SEC

SUN BELT

Alabama Quarterback Tua Tagovailoa


ASSESSING THE NEW COACHING STAFFS IN COLLEGE FOOTBALLBY STEVE MAKINEN - @STEVEMAKINEN

As bettors, one of the most important things to do in preparing for the upcoming college footbalI season is to get a handle on all of the coaching changes that came about since last season. For 2019, there are 27 different new head coaches across FBS football. Of course, each of the programs hopes to have landed a new leader that will help them to improve or reach the promised land. Unfortunately, that is not always the case, and often the exact opposite happens. Finding the right fit is not an easy job. Let’s take a quick look at the teams welcoming in new staffs. I’ll even take a stab at how I feel the change might affect the program for the near future.

Note: for the coordinators, a star “*” indicator means that coach is new in the position for 2019.

AKRONNew Head Coach: Tom ArthOffensive Coordinator: Tommy Zagorski*Defensive Coordinator: Matt Feeney*Steve’s Thoughts: The Terry Bowden era at Akron lasted seven seasons, two of which

ended in bowl bids. Tom Arth comes over from FCS Chattanooga, who was just 6-5 last season and lost its last three games. Arth brings with him his DC and another FCS coordinator for offense. The Zips have just 10 starters back and would seem to be plummeting. Expect it to get worse before it gets better.

APPALACHIAN STATENew Head Coach: Eliah DrinkwitzOffensive Coordinator: Eliah Drinkwitz*Defensive Coordinator: Ted Roof*Steve’s Thoughts: Eliah Drinkwitz, most recently the offensive coordinator at NC State, inherits a nice situation at Appalachian State. He gets 16 returning starters including proficient QB Zac Thomas. Drinkwitz will be the OC and he brings DC Ted Roof over with him. This should be a solid staff and there’s no reason the Mountaineers shouldn’t

maintain the success of the last handful of seasons.

BOWLING GREENNew Head Coach: Scot LoefflerOffensive Coordinator: Terry Malone*Defensive Coordinator: Brian VanGorder*Steve’s Thoughts: Scot Loeffler comes over from Boston College, where he was offensive coordinator. His offense was very high tempo, certainly compared to what Bowling Green was used to playing. Loeffler will have 12 starters back from a 3-9 team and I would project that the Falcons have room for modest improvement in 2019.

CENTRAL MICHIGANNew Head Coach: Jim McElwainOffensive Coordinator: Charlie Frye*Defensive Coordinator: Robb Akey*Steve’s Thoughts: The hiring of Jim McElwain at Central Michigan could prove to be a huge coup for the university, or alternatively, a career death blow for the coach. McElwain spent

two and a half years at Florida before manning the sidelines as wide receivers coach at Michigan last year. He brings two coordinators that were with him at Florida, as well as a new QB in Quinten Dormandy that was at Houston last year and started five games with Tennessee the year prior. After going 1-11 last year and scoring just 15 PPG, there is nowhere to go but up, and that is exactly where I expect the Chippewas to go, both in wins and scoring.

A look at the new coaches from a betting perspective


ASSESSING THE NEW COACHING STAFFS IN COLLEGE FOOTBALL

CHARLOTTENew Head Coach: Will HealyOffensive Coordinator: Alex Atkins*Defensive Coordinator: Brandon Cooper / Marcus West*Steve’s Thoughts: Despite a 4-game improvement from 2017 to 2018, Brad Lambert was fired at Charlotte following his 6th season. He is replaced by 33-year old Will Healy, who led a remarkable turnaround at FCS Austin Peay. His OC is former offensive line coach at Tulane, and DC Cooper was with him at Charlotte. His new QB will be grad

transfer Brett Kean from South Florida. With 12 starters back in all, Kean could be the piece that gets this team from 5 to 6 wins and a potential bowl bid.

COASTAL CAROLINANew Head Coach: Jamey ChadwellOffensive Coordinator: Willy Korn / Newland Isaac*Defensive Coordinator: Marvin SandersSteve’s Thoughts: Jamey Chadwell was the OC the last two seasons at Coastal Carolina under Joe Moglia, who stepped down after a successful 6-year run at the school. There will be 15 starters back but this team lost its L4 games of 2018 to finish 5-7. Despite

the fact that Chadwell spent time as interim coach at CC in 2017, this is truly his first head job. With the negative momentum carrying over from the end of ’18, I would project the Chanticleers slightly down for this season.

COLORADONew Head Coach: Mel TuckerOffensive Coordinator: Jay Johnson*Defensive Coordinator: Tyson Summers*Steve’s Thoughts: Mel Tucker is a fairly high profile hire for Colorado after he spent the L3 seasons guiding Georgia’s well-respected defense. He won’t have the same defensive talent in Boulder, that is for sure, and in fact, only has four starters back from that side of

the ball. His coordinators come over with him from the Bulldogs. Georgia ran a far more deliberate offense than Colorado, and combined with Tucker’s defensive prowess, I would expect scores to be down for the Buffaloes in 2019. I would also project some stumbling blocks this fall but eventual success for Tucker here.

EAST CAROLINANew Head Coach: Mike HoustonOffensive Coordinator: Donnie Kirkpatrick*Defensive Coordinator: Bob Trott*Steve’s Thoughts: The 2019 season was the third straight that ended with a 3-9 record for East Carolina, so a change coming at head coach was obviously needed. Mike Houston gets the job after spending three years at FCS power James Madison. One of

those seasons ended with a championship. Not surprisingly, the JUM coordinators make the trek to Greenville with Houston. Part of the problem for ECU was an up-tempo offense that didn’t have the talent to be run that way. James Madison’s offense was not nearly as high paced so expect fewer plays per game, and hence lower scoring. QB Holton Ayers had a 12/3 TD/Int ratio last year and is one of 14 starters back. I give the Pirates a good shot at a 2-3 win improvement in 2019.

GEORGIA TECHNew Head Coach: Geoff CollinsOffensive Coordinator: Dave Patenaude*Defensive Coordinator: Nathan Burton / Andrew Thacker*Steve’s Thoughts: One of the more impactful coaching staff changes in college football is at Georgia Tech, where Geoff Collins (& his coordinators) come over from Temple. Gone is the option offense of Paul Johnson, who spent 11 years in Atlanta. The new pro-style

attack will be higher paced and naturally result in more scoring, likely on both sides of the ball, so expect higher totals than you’re used to from the Yellow Jackets. After a 7-6 season that ended with back-to-back 24-point losses, and only nine starters back, expect growing pains in 2019 for Collins and Georgia Tech.

HOUSTONNew Head Coach: Dana HolgorsenOffensive Coordinator: Marquel Blackwell / Brandon Jones*Defensive Coordinator: Joe Cauthen / Doug Belk*Steve’s Thoughts: Dana Holgorsen, most recently at West Virginia, is a pretty strong hire for Houstson, and with QB D’Eriq King back for his senior season, I would put Houston as one of the top contenders in the American Conference. Ironically, Houston

might actually slow down this year compared to the last couple of seasons under Major Applewhite. That’s not to say the Cougars won’t be prolific on offense, as they certainly will, but the games probably won’t be nearly as wild. Holgorsen’s new OC was with him at WVU, and the DC Cauthen comes over from Arkansas State.



KANSASNew Head Coach: Les MilesOffensive Coordinator: Les Koenning*Defensive Coordinator: DJ Eliot*Steve’s Thoughts: Between Les Miles at Kansas and new UNC coach Mack Brown, it’s debatable as to which program made the bigger splash. Both will be newsworthy all season long. Miles of course comes from LSU, where he spent 12 seasons, ending in

2016. He has a career record of 142-55 so the most interesting aspect of this hire will be how he deals with the adversity of losing. Miles already has had an impact on recruiting but he only brings back 10 starters from a team that won its most games in five seasons. My speculation is valleys come before the peaks for KU.

KANSAS STATENew Head Coach: Chris KliemanOffensive Coordinator: Courtney Messingham*Defensive Coordinator: Scottie Hazelton*Steve’s Thoughts: The sideline will look a lot different in Manhattan in 2019 as Chris Klieman takes over for Bill Snyder, who spent 27 seasons at K-State. Klieman’s name

should be familiar to football fans, as he has led North Dakota State’s tremendous FCS run over the L5 seasons. He brings his OC over with him and his DC is the former defensive leader at Wyoming. He has half of the starters back from last year’s 5-7 team, a group that failed to reach a bowl game for the first time in nine years. This year’s team looks like a potential similar team with a lean to a game worse.

LIBERTYNew Head Coach: Hugh FreezeOffensive Coordinator: Kent Austin / Maurice Harris*Defensive Coordinator: Scott Symons*Steve’s Thoughts: Turner Gill retired following last year’s 6-6 season, the first one for the program at the FBS-level. A big-name hire replaces Gill in Hugh Freeze, best known for his 5 years spent atop the Ole Miss program. Things are looking pretty solid for Freeze’s

first year with 15 starters back, especially if he can help senior QB Steven Calvert cut down on his interceptions. His new OC comes from CFL’s Hamilton Ti-Cats. The schedule is extremely manageable and I could see this team being anywhere from 5-7 to 8-4 in the regular season.

LOUISVILLENew Head Coach: Scott SatterfieldOffensive Coordinator: Dwayne Ledford*Defensive Coordinator: Bryan Brown / Cort Dennison*Steve’s Thoughts: The 2018 season was a forgettable one in Louisville, and the last for Bobby Petrino, who “led” the team to a 2-10 record. The numbers were ugly, as the Cardinals were outscored 44.1 to 19.8 on average. Former Appalachian State head man

Scott Satterfield takes over after a tremendous run with the Mountaineers. It’s a big job, but improvement could come quickly with 16 starters back, including highly rated Jawon Pass, a big & mobile QB. Satterfield’s OC is Dwayne Ledford, who led NC State’s offensive line last year. Expect improved numbers on both sides of the ball and overall improvement, if for no other reason than 2018 was likely rock bottom.

MARYLANDNew Head Coach: Mike LocksleyOffensive Coordinator: Scottie Montgomery / Joker Phillips*Defensive Coordinator: Jon Hoke*Steve’s Thoughts: With all of the turmoil surrounding Maryland’s program last season, Mike Locksley steps in as the new head coach. The team lost its last four games of 2018 but was entertaining and competitive in the process, including nearly upsetting Ohio State. Locksley’s new OC is Scottie Montgomery, the former HC at East Carolina. That

could be a key factor, as ECU ran a very high tempo’d offense compared to the Terps. In fact, the difference was 2.73 plays per minute of offense to 2.07 PPM. Games could be on the wild side for Marlyand in 2019. Ten total starters are back and talented QB Josh Jackson (Virginia Tech) is expected to take over. I like Maryland’s chances of matching or beating its 5-7 record last year with the turmoil seemingly in the rear view mirror now.

MASSACHUSETTSNew Head Coach: Walt BellOffensive Coordinator: Walt Bell*Defensive Coordinator: Aazaar Abdul-Rahim / Tommy Restivo*Steve’s Thoughts: Walt Bell gets his first head coaching job after serving as OC at Florida State last year and Maryland prior. He will be the play caller at UMass as well,

and tempo should be up slightly for the Minutemen in 2019. Bell only has eight starters back from last year’s 4-8 team though and it’s difficult to project improvement. I wouldn’t be surprised to see a 2-10 or 3-9 type of season.



MIAMI FLNew Head Coach: Manny DiazOffensive Coordinator: Dan Enos*Defensive Coordinator: Blake Baker / Ephraim Banda*Steve’s Thoughts: Miami’s Manny Diaz hire was not unexpected after Mark Richt’s

abrupt retirement. Diaz has been DC the L3 years and dubbed the inventor of the famous “Turnover-Chain”. Diaz named Dan Enos his new OC, stealing him away from his role as QB coach at Alabama. His new DC Baker was last in the same position at Louisiana Tech. There are 12 total starters back for 2019 and the new QB is expected to be highly rated Tate Martell, a transfer from Ohio State. I’ll be honest when I say I don’t expect much to be different with the Hurricanes in 2019, won-lost wise nor scoring-wise.

NORTHERN ILLINOISNew Head Coach: Thomas HammockOffensive Coordinator: Eric Eidsness*Defensive Coordinator: Derrick Jackson*Steve’s Thoughts: Thomas Hammock is one of a handful of new coaches in the MAC, coming over from the Baltimore Ravens, where he was RB coach. His OC comes from South Dakota State, his DC from Purdue. The six years under Rod Carey were strong, with

five ending in bowl games. However, the Huskies didn’t win any of those bowl games so there is still room to get better. There are 13 starters back, but in my opinion, this is a rather unorthodox hire, and it feels like a situation that could get bumpy in 2019 before it gets better.

NORTH CAROLINANew Head Coach: Mack BrownOffensive Coordinator: Phil Longo*Defensive Coordinator: Jay Bateman / Tommy Thigpen*Steve’s Thoughts: Mack Brown spent 10 seasons at UNC back in the late 80’s-90’s, and returns some 22 years and one national championship later. That title of course came

with Texas. His new OC is Phil Longo, architect of Ole Miss’ high-tempo offense. The Tar Heels already ran a fast offense so any change should be marginal. Brown inherits a team that was just 2-9 last year despite being outscored by just 7.1 PPG. Being that competitive with 14 starters returning should produce more wins in Brown’s first season. Let’s call for 4-8 or 5-7 in an exciting fashion.

OHIO STATENew Head Coach: Ryan DayOffensive Coordinator: Kevin Wilson / Mike YurcichDefensive Coordinator: Jeff Hafley / Greg Mattison*Steve’s Thoughts: Ryan Day’s task of replacing Urban Meyer may seem difficult on paper, but keep in mind that Day was 3-0 while Meyer was suspended last year, has a fantastic rapport with players, and has the same OC in place that has been in Columbus the L3 seasons.

He even managed to steal DC Greg Mattison from rival Michigan’s highly rated defense. The biggest challenge for Day in year one figures to be replacing QB Dwayne Haskins, that is even lessened when you look at the stable of highly rated potential candidates. Last year the Buckeyes averaged 42.4 PPG offensively and allowed 25.5 PPG on defense. With four starters back on offense and nine on defense, I expect both numbers to fall significantly this season.

TEMPLENew Head Coach: Rod CareyOffensive Coordinator: Mike Uremovich*Defensive Coordinator: Jeff Knowles*Steve’s Thoughts: Rod Carey’s strong run at Northern Illinois helped him bump up a step to Temple, where he’ll face new challenges in the American Athletic Conference. He

brings both of his coordinators with him from NIU. The Owls now have their fifth head coach in four years, and despite that, have won at least seven games each season. As such, with 14 starters back and a similar offensive pace expected, I would project Temple to continue its run of bowl seasons again in 2019.

TEXAS STATENew Head Coach: Jake SpavitalOffensive Coordinator: Bob Stitt*Defensive Coordinator: Zac Spavital / Archie McDaniel*Steve’s Thoughts: Jake Spavital gets his first head coaching gig after spending the last two years as West Virginia’s OC. That should be exciting news in itself for offensively-starved TSU, who hasn’t scored over 20 PPG since 2015. Nine starters are back on

offense and if the unit can quickly adapt to Spavital’s new system, should be much improved. The defense was actually pretty strong last year allowing a respectable 5.3 yards per play and could also be better with 10 starters back. Jake’s brother Zac is the DC, after serving similarly at Texas Tech. This team could surprise people in the Sun Belt in 2019 despite the complete coaching changeover.



TEXAS TECHNew Head Coach: Matt WellsOffensive Coordinator: David Yost*Defensive Coordinator: Keith Patterson*Steve’s Thoughts: Texas Tech is well known for its offensive prowess over the last couple of decades in college football. Well, new Head Coach Matt Wells had a pretty good offense at Utah State last year too, one that scored 47.5 PPG. With

7 starters back on offense, including QB Alan Bowman, expect there to be a lot of fireworks in 2019 in Lubbock. Wells brings his two coordinators over with him from USU, and their first job will be to erase Red Raiders’ players memories of the season-ending 5-game losing skid that cost a bowl bid. All five were by 15 points or less though. Expect Texas Tech back in a bowl game this December.

TROYNew Head Coach: Chip LindseyOffensive Coordinator: Ryan Pugh*Defensive Coordinator: Brandon Hall*Steve’s Thoughts: Chip Lindsey is another first-time head coach that takes over a program that has enjoyed success recently. Filling Neal Brown’s shoes won’t be

easy for the former OC at Auburn, as Troy won 10 games or more in each of the L3 seasons. Lindsey has 13 starters back including senior QB Kaleb Barker, so this is anything but a rebuild. The new OC is from BYU and the new DC is the LB’s coach of the Trojans. Expect status quo for Lindsey & Troy in 2019.

UTAH STATENew Head Coach: Gary AndersenOffensive Coordinator: Mike Sanford Jr.*Defensive Coordinator: Justin Ena*Steve’s Thoughts: Gary Anderson is familiar with USU, having coached here from ’09-12, but a lot has changed system-wise since then. His new OC is

Mike Sanford, the former coach at Western Kentucky. Anderson’s past teams at his previous stops ran different offenses from Sanford, but the talent in Logan is a better fit for Sanford’s systems, so there shouldn’t be much difference from what you got used to from the Aggies under Mike Wells. Quarterback Jordan Love was fantastic last year for Wells and is one of only two starters back on offense. New DC Justin Ena coached LB’s at Utah and gets seven starters back. Despite optimistic projections, I’m going to say it’s unrealistic for the Aggies to match last year’s magic, and I expect a plummet of at least three games.

WESTERN KENTUCKYNew Head Coach: Tyson HeltonOffensive Coordinator: Bryan Ellis*Defensive Coordinator: Clayton WhiteSteve’s Thoughts: Just above, I mentioned Mike Sanford going to Utah State as the new OC after being fired by Western Kentucky. Sanford’s teams clearly

underachieved compared to the previous regime, so WKU brass is looking for new guy Tyson Helton to restore the magic. Helton was Tennessee’s OC last year and was with USC before that. His new OC is also from USC, a former QB coach. The defensive staff remains in place. A total of 16 starters are back from the 3-9 team of a year ago. However, when you consider that they lost four games by a FG (probably much of reason Sanford was fired), there is plenty of reason for optimism. I expect this team to be improved and challenge for a bowl bid.

WEST VIRGINIANew Head Coach: Neal BrownOffensive Coordinator: Matt Moore / Chad Scott*Defensive Coordinator: Vic KoenningSteve’s Thoughts: It was a bit of a surprise that Dana Holgorsen chose Houston over West Virginia, but with only nine starters back in the tough Big 12, the former Mountaineers’ head coach may have seen rough waters ahead. The pressure

falls on Neal Brown, who comes off a successful tenure at Troy. Moore & Koenning were with Brown previously, and combine that with a new quarterback coming town, this is legitimately the most unstable situation in college football for 2019. Troy was known for playing a deliberate pace so scoring and potentially entertainment value could be down big time in Morgantown this fall. This team could be lucky to win four games.


2019 BET ON AND AGAINST TEAMSBY PAUL STONE - @PAULSTONESPORTS

One of my offseason college football handicapping assignments every year is to attempt to identify teams likely to be overvalued or undervalued by the betting markets during the upcoming season.

To reach my ultimate conclusions, I consume

as much relevant personnel, statistical and other information as possible, perusing digital newspapers, related websites, and annual publications such as Phil Steele’s College Football Preview and Athlon Sports College Football to develop power ratings for all 130 FBS teams.

The process of crafting a power rating for a college football team whose roster may have experienced massive turnover is a tricky proposition — part art and part science. But with more than a quarter century’s worth of experience, I’m comfortable my final work product will be superior to the linemaker’s more often than not.

That is especially true in September before everybody’s numbers start looking the same since we then have data points (results) to more clearly reflect each team’s place in the 130-team pecking order.

Without further ado, here are four ‘Play On’ and ‘Play Against’ recommendations for 2019:

AUBURNIt’s no secret that Gus Malzahn’s teams have been money burners at the betting window over the past five seasons, posting an overall ATS record of 24-40-2. Plus

the Tigers lack experience at the critical quarterback position, with either true freshman Bo Nix or redshirt freshman Joey Gatewood the likely heir apparent to the departed Jarrett Stidham.

While there are clearly questions, Auburn is talented and experienced in the trenches on both sides of the ball, sporting a Top 10-caliber offensive line and arguably the nation’s top defensive front led by dominating tackle Derrick Brown, who is a probable

first-round selection in the 2020 NFL Draft. If Auburn finds its quarterback, do not sleep on the Tigers.

MICHIGAN STATEOff the heels of a top-shelf sophomore season, Brian Lewerke entered the 2018 campaign as one of the more talented quarterbacks in all of college football. But Lewerke

suffered a midseason shoulder injury and slumped badly as the offensively-challenged Spartans started the year ranked No. 11 and finished it with an ugly 7-6 loss to Oregon in the Redbox Bowl.

Lewerke should be 100 percent healthy and looking to atone for last season’s surprising showing, which saw him throw 11 interceptions against just eight touchdowns.

Equally as important is Mark Dantonio’s performance off a season failing to meet expectations. When his Michigan State teams have won seven games or fewer in a season, he has rebounded to win an average of 10.8 games the following year.

AIR FORCEFor the first time since he took over at Air Force in 2007, Troy Calhoun’s Falcons are coming off back-to-back losing seasons, after their second straight 5-7 finish.

There are reasons for optimism, however, and not the least of those is a seasoned roster that returns a somewhat uncharacteristic seven starters on both offense and defense, including a pair of quarterbacks — Donald Hammond and Isaiah Sanders — who have seen substantial action.

Although failing to record any eye-popping victories last season, Air Force was competitive in all 12 of its games, with its most decisive defeats being only 10 points (to both Utah State and Boise State). With veteran returnees across both interior lines, the Falcons look primed to turn some of those close encounters into victories.

UCLAPredictably, it took awhile for the switch to flip, but, when it did, Chip Kelly’s inaugural UCLA team was a tough out in its final four games of 2018.

PLAY-ON TEAMS


2019 BET ON AND AGAINST TEAMS

The Bruins and true freshman quarterback Dorian Thompson-Robinson only won one of those final four contests (a 34-27 victory over cross-town rival USC), but their offense came to life late averaging 31.3 points during that stretch.

UCLA lost at Arizona State by three points (31-28) during that span and then only fell to Stanford by seven points (49-42) at home in its season finale. The Bruins led 42-41 with nine minutes to go before the Cardinal rallied for the win.

Kelly’s Bruins should naturally be improved in his second season, plus they are one of the nation’s more experienced teams with 19 returning starters.

FLORIDAA lopsided win over an uninspired Michigan team (41-15) in the Peach Bowl last year artificially elevated Florida’s

stock entering the 2019 season.

The Gators, who were +12 in the turnover category in 2018, will have lots of new faces on the offensive line as only a single starter (senior center Nick Buchanan) returns and 141 career starts are out the door. The returning linemen boast a total of only 24 career starts, half those by Buchanan.

Even though junior quarterback Feleipe Franks appears ready to take another step in his continuing development, Florida won’t match last year’s scoring average of 35 points per game, which was its highest since Urban Meyer’s next-to-last season in 2009 (35.9 points per game average).

TEXASBasking in the immediate afterglow of Texas’ 28-21 upset victory over Georgia

in the 2018 Sugar Bowl, a smiling Sam Ehlinger proudly proclaimed on the floor of the Superdome, “Longhorn Nation...we’re back.”

Not so fast, Sam.

Ehlinger, a 6-3, 230-pound junior who competes with a linebacker’s mentality, was recently named the Big 12 preseason Offensive Player of the Year and the numbers certainly support that designation. In fact, he became just the sixth Power Five quarterback in the past 20 years to throw for at least 25 touchdowns (25) and rush for at least 15 scores (16) last season.

So with such a leading man under center, why fade the Longhorns? Quite frankly, Ehlinger doesn’t have enough headliners among his supporting cast, especially on defense.

The Longhorns lose both defensive ends, their top three tacklers, both starting cornerbacks, and must retool their offensive line. All told, a total of just eight starters return in Austin.

KENTUCKYLed by defensive star Josh Allen (seventh overall pick in the 2019 NFL Draft), the Wildcats allowed a stingy average of just 16.8 points in 2018. Only one team (Georgia) scored more

than 24 points against Kentucky.

In each of Mike Stoops’ previous six seasons, the Wildcats had allowed an average of at least 27.4 points per game, so last year’s stellar showing was an extreme outlier.

Unfortunately for the Wildcats, the defensive defections do not end with Allen. Kentucky also loses two members of a highly-regarded secondary who were high NFL picks in cornerback Lonnie Johnson (second round) and safety Mike Edwards (third round).

Offensively, Benny Snell leaves Lexington as the school’s all-time leading rusher after recording three straight 1,000-yard seasons in as many years.

NEBRASKAAfter starting his Nebraska tenure with six straight losses, favorite son Scott Frost and his Cornhuskers rebounded nicely to win four of their final six games and create some

renewed optimism in Lincoln.

By the looks of its slotting in some of the preseason publications and across digital media, the expectations of many onlookers in just Frost’s second season as coach seem to be somewhat unfounded.

Sure, sophomore Adrian Martinez, who hails from California, already merits mention as one of the top dual-threat quarterbacks in the land after amassing more than 3,200 total yards offense (2,617 passing and 629 rushing) in his true freshman campaign.

But while Martinez serves as a nice centerpiece for the overall presentation, the Cornhuskers are not without questions. And, frankly, lots of them.

Nebraska must find replacements for four starting offensive linemen, a 1,000-yard receiver (Stanley Morgan) and a 1,000-yard rusher (Devine Ozigbo).

Defensively, the Cornhuskers have been downright bad over the past two seasons, serving up an average of 36 points per game in conference contests over that period. That unit loses five of their top six tacklers and there is no reason to anticipate marked improvement.

PLAY-AGAINST TEAMS


AMERICAN ATHLETICCONFERENCE PREVIEW

2019 Home Road Schd S.S. ALL GAMES CONFERENCETeam SM PR Field Field Strg Rank PrjW's PrjL's PrjW's PrjL's

EAST DIVISIONUCF 50.5 2.5 0.5 35.63 87 9.4 2.6 6.5 1.5CINCINNATI 47 2 -0.5 41.67 61 7.4 4.6 5.3 2.7TEMPLE 42 3.75 0.5 33.81 104 7.6 4.4 4.7 3.3SOUTH FLORIDA 39 4 0.25 36.50 79 6.3 5.7 4.4 3.6EAST CAROLINA 30 3 -0.75 32.38 112 5.1 6.9 2.5 5.5CONNECTICUT 19 2 -0.5 35.63 86 2.2 9.8 0.8 7.2

WEST DIVISIONMEMPHIS 49 4 0 33.77 105 9.8 2.2 6.2 1.8HOUSTON 40 4 0 38.58 70 6.2 5.8 4.6 3.4SMU 36.5 3 -0.75 38.33 72 5.5 6.5 3.7 4.3TULANE 35.5 3.75 -0.75 38.13 74 5.2 6.8 3.4 4.6TULSA 34 3 0.75 39.85 68 4.4 7.6 2.9 5.1NAVY 28.5 4.25 0 35.56 89 4.3 7.7 2.9 5.1

2019 WIN PROJECTIONS AND STANDINGS

VSiN CONFERENCE PREDICTIONS

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GAMEEASTDIVISION UCF CINCINNATI UCF CINCINNATI UCF UCF UCF UCF

WESTDIVISION HOUSTON HOUSTON HOUSTON MEMPHIS MEMPHIS HOUSTON MEMPHIS HOUSTON

AMERICAN CHAMPIONSHIP UCF CINCINNATI UCF CINCINNATI MEMPHIS UCF UCF UCF

WRITTEN BY WES REYNOLDS - @WESREYNOLDS1


UCF (Eastern Division) and Memphis (Western Division)These two teams have met in the American Athletic Conference Championship Game in each of the last two seasons. UCF, on its home field, has gotten the better of the Tigers in both meetings (2017: 62-55 in 2OT; 2018: 56-41). This season could be a different story though as Memphis has the highest win total of any AAC team at 9.5 and looks to have a realistic shot at a New Year’s Six bowl. The Tigers return 14 starters (6 O, 8 D) but are also replacing all coordinators. Mike Norvell‘s new OC is Kevin Johns, who was in the same role at Texas Tech last season and served in similar capacities at Western Michigan and Indiana in prior stops. Johns’s offense at Texas Tech ran an average of 81 plays/game last season, so expect the Tigers to go even more uptempo, which should be music to second-year starting QB Brady White’s ears. White threw for just under 3,300 yards and a 26/9 TD/INT ratio last season. Adam Fuller comes in from Marshall to man the defense. His defense at Marshall was a top 25 overall defense and was especially stingy against the run (8th in nation; 104.2 ypg). This year the Tigers return five of their front seven and are now all upperclassmen so defensive improvement is expected. Furthermore, Memphis only plays four teams with winning records last season and should be favored in every game and potentially force UCF to come to Beale Street. The QB battle may have been settled by default as sophomore Darriel Mack suffered a broken ankle in mid-July and McKenzie Milton is already out for the season. Enter Notre Dame transfer Brandon Wimbush (16 starts at Notre Dame) to man the controls. The Golden Knights have a tougher schedule but face their tougher opponents at opportune times. They get FAU in Week 2 off a trip to Ohio State, then get Stanford already in a USC and Oregon sandwich having to travel cross country. A road trip to Pitt follows but the Panthers will be off a rivalry game with Penn State. The game at Cincinnati on Oct. 4 likely determines the Eastern Division title.

Temple (Eastern Division) and Tulane (Western Division)The Owls undergo some adversity and now have their fourth head coach since November 2018. Geoff Collins left for Georgia Tech, Ed Foley (retained as TE/ST coach) was the interim coach for the bowl game, Manny Díaz took the job and then returned to Miami and finally Rod Carey comes in from Northern Illinois. Temple rebounded from an 0-2 start last year, losing outright as home favorites to Villanova and Buffalo, to go a respectable 8-5. Moreover, the Owls lost their starting QB Frank Nutile (now graduated) after two weeks and Anthony Russo took over the reins and went 7-3 as a starter while having some expected ups and downs (14/14 TD/Int ratio) but he did throw for 444 yards at then unbeaten and 9th ranked UCF. Carey doesn’t inherit a bare cupboard here with 14 starters (7 O, 7 D) back. Tulane carries some positive momentum into this season. They started 2-5 last season but made a QB change and went to LSU graduate transfer Justin McMillan, who led them to a 5-1 finish including winning his first two starts on the road at Tulsa and at USF and to the Green Wave’s first bowl win since 2002. Now in his fourth season, Willie Fritz looks to have the better personnel to run his hybrid spread option offense. Fritz led Georgia Southern to a Sun Belt Title in his first year there in 2014 and took Sam Houston State to back-to-back FCS Title Games in the 2011 and 2012 seasons. He has improved Tulane every year he has been there.

Connecticut Randy Edsall was called back into action in Storrs after a successful stint from 1999-2010 (five bowl appearances, including a then-BCS bowl in the 2010 Fiesta Bowl). However, the sequel has not proven to be as good as the original as the Huskies went 4-20 overall in the last two seasons and didn’t beat an FBS team last season. They had to score in the final minute just to get by FCS Rhode Island. UConn was also a money-burning 2-10 ATS last season. They gave up 605 points in 12 games and started the second-most freshmen in the nation last season. The good news is that they can’t really get worse but they still look far away from getting much better.

2019 AMERICAN ATHLETIC CONFERENCE PREVIEW

THE FAVORITES

LIVE DOGS

DEAD MONEY

BIG GAMES ON THE BOARDCincinnati at Ohio State, Sept. 7Luke Fickell spent four years in Columbus as a player (1993-1996) and 15 years on staff (2002-2016) including the 2011 season as interim head coach. He was the AAC Coach of the Year last season improving the Bearcats from 4-8 to 11-2 in his second season. A solid performance in the “Horseshoe” could open some eyes that they are a bonafide title contender.

Stanford at UCF, Sept. 14For the last two years, critics have pointed to UCF’s soft nonconference schedule as the primary reason for not being taken seriously as a legitimate College Football Playoff contender, in spite of having two straight unbeaten regular seasons and a 25-game winning streak. Well, now here is their chance to gain respect as a Stanford team, off a road game at USC and before a big showdown with Oregon, comes across the country to face them in Orlando.

Georgia Tech at Temple, Sept 28The Owls don’t have to wait long to get a crack at their former head coach as Geoff Collins returns to Philadelphia.

UCF at Cincinnati, Oct. 4UCF (then #11) defeated Cincinnati (then #19) 38-13 and easily covered as 7.5-point favorites with ESPN College Gameday in town last season. This looks to be the game that will decide the Eastern Division.

Memphis at Houston, Nov. 16Memphis should be favored in every game this season but will likely be the smallest favorite they will be here in this showdown. Mike Norvell is 3-0 SU and ATS vs. the Cougars since arriving in Memphis, but he locks horns this time with Dana Holgorsen, who is in his first-year in H-Town.


STEVE MAKINEN’S POWER RATING

HOME/ROAD FIELD RATINGS

SCHEDULE STRENGTH

2019 SCHEDULE

2018 SCHEDULE AND RESULTS

Date Opponent Series Trend

Date Opponent Score SU FL ATS FT O/U

UCFKNIGHTSLocation: Orlando, FL Stadium: Spectrum Stadium Head Coach: Josh Heupel - 2nd season2018 Record: 12-1Returning Starters: 13 - Offense: 8 QB - Defense: 5Offensive Coordinator: Josh HeupelDefensive Coordinator: Randy Shannon

50.5

2.5 / 0.5

35.63 (#87 OF 130)

8/29/19 FLORIDA AM9/7/19 at FLA Atlantic9/14/19 STANFORD9/21/19 at Pittsburgh9/28/19 CONNECTICUT ROAD TEAMS are 4-1 SU & 5-0 ATS in L5 games of UCF-CON series10/4/19 at Cincinnati FAVORITES are 4-0 SU & ATS in L4 games of CIN-UCF series10/19/19 EAST CAROLINA UCF is 6-4 SU & 8-2 ATS vs. EAST CAROLINA since 200810/26/19 at Temple OVER the total is 5-0 in L5 games of TEM-UCF series11/2/19 HOUSTON ROAD TEAMS are 6-0 ATS in L6 games of HOU-UCF series11/8/19 at Tulsa UNDER the total is 6-2 in L8 games of UCF-TLS series11/23/19 at Tulane HOME TEAMS are 7-1 SU & 5-2 ATS in L8 games of TUL-UCF series11/29/19 SOUTH FLORIDA ROAD TEAMS are 4-3 SU & 6-1 ATS in L7 games of USF-UCF series

8/30/18 at Connecticut 56-17 W -23.5 W 69 O9/8/18 S CAROLINA ST 38-0 W -51 L 65.5 U9/21/18 FLA ATLANTIC 56-36 W -14 W 75 O9/29/18 PITTSBURGH 45-14 W -13.5 W 65.5 U10/6/18 SMU 48-20 W -26 W 73 U10/13/18 at Memphis 31-30 W -4.5 L 80 U10/20/18 at East Carolina 37-10 W -21.5 W 65 U11/1/18 TEMPLE 52-40 W -10 W 60 O11/10/18 NAVY 35-24 W -23.5 L 69 U11/17/18 CINCINNATI 38-13 W -6.5 W 60 U11/23/18 at South Florida 38-10 W -15.5 W 69.5 U12/1/18 MEMPHIS 56-41 W -1 W 65 O1/1/19 vs. LSU 32-40 L 7 L 58 O

This is a number you really want to shop for in the market. There are a couple 10s with heavier juice (around -130) to the Under and the market average is at 9.5. At 9, this is still worth a look to the Over. The schedule is much tougher on the surface than last year’s when you consider the Knights have nonconference road games at FAU and at Pittsburgh and get a likely ranked Stanford club at home. However, the spots on the schedule are favorable. In Week 2, they go to FAU, who will just have faced Ohio State. Then Stanford comes to town in a sandwich spot between USC and Oregon. Next, they go to face a Pitt team who will be off a revenge spot (51-6 loss) from last season against Penn State. In the following week, the Knights will go to Cincinnati and the Bearcats are off a sneaky and tricky type of spot at Marshall in the prior week. After the more difficult early part of the schedule, UCF is likely favored in all of its last six games. There is not

much of a drop off from Darriel Mack, Jr to Notre Dame transfer Brandon Wimbush. Wimbush started 16 career games at Notre Dame and while his passing numbers (51 percent; 2606 yards, 20 TD, 12 INT) are fairly pedestrian, he also ran for 1,155 yards and was 13-3 as a starter in South Bend against much tougher competition. If the number is higher than 9, I wouldn’t recommend the Over.

OVER 9WESTGATE

WES REYNOLDS’ SEASON WIN TOTAL PREDICTION

2019 AMERICAN ATHLETIC CONFERENCE EAST DIVISION


TOP TRENDS FOR 2019

2018 KEY STATISTICS AND RANKS

STEVE MAKINEN’S EFFECTIVE STATISTICS

Offensive Statistics # Rank Defensive Statistics # Rank

4-YEAR SITUATIONAL RECORDS

Year NewHC? SM PR Eff Strg Eff

YPP+/- SM BR Off RS-New?

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UCFKNIGHTS

Points Per Game 43.7 5Yards Per Point 11.9 10Plays Per Game 76.2 30Time of Possession 25:33 1273rd Down Conv. % 50.0% 6Total Yards Per Game 519.3 4Yards Per Play 6.8 6Rush Attempts Per Game 45.5 12Rush Yards Per Game 261.2 8Yards Per Rush Attempt 5.7 8Pass Attempts Per Game 29.1 86Completion % 57.9% 81Passing Yards Per Game 258.1 33Yards Per Pass Attempt 8.9 11Turnovers 0.9 9

Points Per Game 24.6 43Yards Per Point 18.3 83rd Down Conv. % 43.5% 101Total Yards Per Game 450.3 102Yards Per Play 5.5 59Rush Yards Per Game 226.2 113Yards Per Rush Attempt 4.8 93Completion % 56.6% 31Passing Yards Per Game 224.2 57Yards Per Pass Attempt 6.8 38Sacks 2.1 66Turnovers 2.1 11

Situation 2015 2016 2017 2018 4-Yr Total 4-Yr RankOverall SU 0-12 6-7 13-0 12-1 31-20 (61%) 43Overall ATS 2-10 8-5 8-4 9-4 27-23 (54%) 37Over-Under 5-6 4-8 8-5 5-8 22-27 (45%) 90at Home ATS 0-6 4-2 4-3 6-2 14-13 (52%) 49Road/Neutral ATS 2-4 4-3 4-1 3-2 13-10 (57%) 41Conference ATS 2-6 5-3 5-3 7-2 19-14 (58%) 25Non-Conf. ATS 0-4 3-2 3-1 2-2 8-9 (47%) 78Favorite ATS 0-3 5-3 6-4 9-3 20-13 (61%) 7Underdog ATS 2-7 3-2 2-0 0-1 7-10 (41%) 101After SUW ATS 0-0 3-3 7-4 8-4 18-11 (62%) 15After SUL ATS 2-9 4-2 0-0 0-0 6-11 (35%) 115

2018 Yes 54.5 27.6 2.26 -11.8 6-QB, OC 44 7.41 12.98 6-DC 16.4 5.15 24.762017 58 31.4 2.7 -16.9 9 47.5 8.16 12.2 4 16.1 5.46 24.892016 Yes 40 16.9 0.96 0.9 10- OC 35.8 5.37 11.23 7-DC 18.9 4.41 18.372015 18 -14 -1.46 20.6 5- OC 18.7 4.52 15.73 4-DC 32.7 5.99 13

• UCF is 6-1 ATS (L7G) on ROAD - On Friday

• UCF is 1-6 ATS (L7G) on ROAD - After a close SU loss 3 points or less

• UCF is 8-2 UNDER (L10G) at HOME - In September





SCHEDULE STRENGTH

2019 SCHEDULE




CINCINNATIBEARCATSLocation: Cincinnati, OH Stadium: Nippert Stadium Head Coach: Luke Fickell - 3rd season2018 Record: 11-2Returning Starters: 14 - Offense: 7 QB - Defense: 7Offensive Coordinator: Mike DenbrockDefensive Coordinator: Marcus Freeman

47

2 / -0.5

41.67 (#61 OF 130)

8/29/19 UCLA9/7/19 at Ohio St HOME TEAMS are 4-1 SU & 4-0 ATS in L5 games of OSU-CIN series9/14/19 MIAMI OHIO UNDERDOGS are 2-4 SU but 6-0 ATS in L6 games of MOH-CIN series9/28/19 at Marshall ROAD TEAMS are 3-0 SU & ATS in L3 games of MAR-CIN series10/4/19 UCF FAVORITES are 4-0 SU & ATS in L4 games of CIN-UCF series10/12/19 at Houston CINCINNATI is 8-4 SU & 8-3 ATS vs. HOUSTON since 199310/19/19 TULSA ROAD TEAMS are 1-4 SU but 5-0 ATS in L5 games of TLS-CIN series11/2/19 at East Carolina HOME TEAMS are 11-5 SU & 13-3 ATS in ECU-CIN series since 199211/9/19 CONNECTICUT UNDER the total is 5-0 in L5 games of CON-CIN series11/16/19 at South Florida SOUTH FLORIDA is 4-2 SU & 5-1 ATS in its L6 games vs. CINCINNATI11/23/19 TEMPLE TEMPLE is 4-2 SU & 5-1 ATS in its L6 games vs. CINCINNATI11/29/19 at Memphis CINCINNATI is 3-2 SU & 5-0 ATS in its L5 games at MEMPHIS

9/1/18 at UCLA 26-17 W 14 W 63 U9/8/18 vs. Miami Ohio 21-0 W 1 W 45 U9/15/18 ALABAMA A&M 63-7 W -43.5 W 51 O9/22/18 OHIO U 34-30 W -7 L 56 O9/29/18 at Connecticut 49-7 W -16 W 62.5 U10/6/18 TULANE 37-21 W -7 W 48 O10/20/18 at Temple 17-24 L 2.5 L 46.5 U10/27/18 at SMU 26-20 W -8.5 L 49.5 U11/3/18 NAVY 42-0 W -13 W 47 U11/10/18 SOUTH FLORIDA 35-23 W -15.5 L 51.5 O11/17/18 at UCF 13-38 L 6.5 L 60 U11/23/18 EAST CAROLINA 56-6 W -15 W 50.5 O12/31/18 vs. Virginia Tech 35-31 W -5 L 48.5 O

The Bearcats were arguably the most improved team in the country going from 4-8 to 11-2 in Luke Fickell’s second year. However, this squad overachieved a bit and caught breaks. They were 3-1 in games decided by one score or less. Against Ohio, the Bearcats were down 21-0 (24-7 at halftime) but came back to win after Ohio got to the UC 2 and threw a goal line interception on the game’s final drive. In their game at SMU, they trailed in the final two minutes but SMU couldn’t convert for a first down and Cincinnati tied the game and then won in OT on an 86-yard INT TD return. Then, in the Military Bowl, Virginia Tech had a late 4th-quarter lead and got stopped on 4th & 1 at the UC 3 and the Bearcats scored two drives later for the win. These breaks one season tend to even out the other way in the following campaign. The Bearcats schedule also looks tougher as they open with what should be an

improved UCLA team looking for revenge and then a homecoming game for Fickell at Ohio State. They have tough road games at Marshall, at Houston, at USF and at Memphis. In Fickell’s two seasons in Cincinnati, he is only 1-5-1 ATS as a single-digit favorite. There will be several of those spots this season as UC will be overvalued from their surprising 11-win campaign last season.

UNDER 8.5CAESARS




TOP TRENDS FOR 2019







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CINCINNATIBEARCATS

Points Per Game 32.6 31Yards Per Point 13.3 40Plays Per Game 76.2 29Time of Possession 32:54 143rd Down Conv. % 47.3% 10Total Yards Per Game 434.9 30Yards Per Play 5.7 53Rush Attempts Per Game 45.4 13Rush Yards Per Game 225.3 17Yards Per Rush Attempt 5 27Pass Attempts Per Game 29 87Completion % 59.2% 63Passing Yards Per Game 209.6 86Yards Per Pass Attempt 7.2 73Turnovers 1.6 80

Points Per Game 18.1 9Yards Per Point 17.4 133rd Down Conv. % 29.4% 7Total Yards Per Game 314 12Yards Per Play 4.6 16Rush Yards Per Game 118.8 17Yards Per Rush Attempt 3.5 17Completion % 49.1% 2Passing Yards Per Game 195.2 24Yards Per Pass Attempt 6.2 21Sacks 2.5 40Turnovers 1.6 48


2018 50.5 23.9 2 -6.8 5-QB 35.8 6.36 13.42 7 11.9 4.36 23.32017 Yes 28.5 -2.1 0.35 9 5- OC 23.2 5.75 16.65 5-DC 25.2 5.4 15.712016 33 3.8 1.05 4.6 5- OC 24.3 5.89 17.13 8 20.6 4.84 18.612015 44.5 13.1 1.74 -7.5 8 39.3 7.21 15.25 5 26.2 5.47 14.87

• CINCINNATI is 7-0 ATS (L7G) - After playing CONNECTICUT

• CINCINNATI is 1-6 ATS (L7G) - After playing HOUSTON

• CINCINNATI is 13-2 UNDER (L15G) on ROAD - On grass field





SCHEDULE STRENGTH

2019 SCHEDULE




TEMPLEOWLSLocation: Philadelphia, PA Stadium: Lincoln Financial Field Head Coach: Rod Carey - 1st season2018 Record: 8-5Returning Starters: 14 - Offense: 7 QB - Defense: 7Offensive Coordinator: Mike Uremovich *Defensive Coordinator: Jeff Knowles *

42

3.75 / 0.5

33.81 (#104 OF 130)

8/31/19 BUCKNELL9/14/19 MARYLAND ROAD TEAMS are 6-2 SU & 8-0 ATS in L8 games of TEM-MD series9/21/19 at Buffalo ROAD TEAMS are 4-3 SU & 5-2 ATS in L7 games of TEM-BUF series9/28/19 GEORGIA TECH10/3/19 at East Carolina TEMPLE is 5-1 SU & 6-0 ATS in its L6 games vs. EAST CAROLINA10/12/19 MEMPHIS TEMPLE is 4-0 ATS in its L4 games vs. MEMPHIS10/19/19 at SMU TEMPLE is 2-1 SU & 3-0 ATS in its L3 games vs. SMU10/26/19 UCF OVER the total is 5-0 in L5 games of TEM-UCF series11/7/19 at South Florida UNDERDOGS are 3-2 SU & 4-1 ATS in L5 games of TEM-USF series11/16/19 TULANE FAVORITES are 3-0 SU & ATS in L3 games of TEM-TUL series11/23/19 at Cincinnati TEMPLE is 4-2 SU & 5-1 ATS in its L6 games vs. CINCINNATI11/30/19 CONNECTICUT UNDER the total is 10-0 in TEM-CON series since 2001

9/1/18 VILLANOVA 17-19 L -14.5 L 39.5 U9/8/18 BUFFALO 29-36 L -4 L 52.5 O9/15/18 at Maryland 35-14 W 16 W 56 U9/20/18 TULSA 31-17 W -6 W 54.5 U9/29/18 at Boston College 35-45 L 13.5 W 54.5 O10/6/18 EAST CAROLINA 49-6 W -10 W 53 O10/13/18 at Navy 24-17 W -6.5 W 49 U10/20/18 CINCINNATI 24-17 W -2.5 W 46.5 U11/1/18 at UCF 40-52 L 10 L 60 O11/10/18 at Houston 59-49 W 3 W 69.5 O11/17/18 SOUTH FLORIDA 27-17 W -14 L 62.5 U11/24/18 at Connecticut 57-7 W -30.5 W 68.5 U12/27/18 vs. Duke 27-56 L -3.5 L 55 O

Unlike what we saw from USF last season, we can’t question Temple’s heart and their ability to deal with adversity. The tough times started last season as Temple lost their first two games of the campaign as home chalk vs. FCS Villanova and Buffalo. They also lost their senior starting QB Frank Nutile to injury. Enter sophomore Anthony Russo, who went on to lead the Owls to a 7-3 record as a starter. HC Geoff Collins left before the Independence Bowl game to take the job at Georgia Tech. Special Teams coach Ed Foley served as the interim in the bowl (56-27 loss vs. Duke). Manny Diaz accepted the job and actually signed most of the incoming recruiting class before going back to take the head job at Miami. Rod Carey now assumes the reins after six seasons as the HC at Northern Illinois. Carey inherits a program that has reached four straight bowl games and returns 14 starters. He brings both coordinators with him from NIU. More often than not, you’d want to go against first-year coaches implementing new systems but this is a

more of a retooling than a rebuilding process. Carey can pitch to his players that he wasn’t the first choice and that these players have had two head coaches leave them but that he really wants to be here and coach these guys. Most of the tougher games on the schedule are at home (Maryland, Memphis and UCF) but this is an experienced bunch returning four of five OL starters and five of their front seven defensively.

OVER 6.5FANDUEL




TOP TRENDS FOR 2019







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TEMPLEOWLS

Points Per Game 36.4 15Yards Per Point 11.6 5Plays Per Game 74.6 44Time of Possession 29:10 803rd Down Conv. % 37.2% 81Total Yards Per Game 423.2 36Yards Per Play 5.7 55Rush Attempts Per Game 39 62Rush Yards Per Game 165.6 65Yards Per Rush Attempt 4.2 71Pass Attempts Per Game 34.2 42Completion % 56.8% 89Passing Yards Per Game 257.7 35Yards Per Pass Attempt 7.5 54Turnovers 1.9 108

Points Per Game 27.8 64Yards Per Point 13.3 913rd Down Conv. % 41.3% 85Total Yards Per Game 369.8 43Yards Per Play 4.5 9Rush Yards Per Game 188 82Yards Per Rush Attempt 4 45Completion % 53.3% 9Passing Yards Per Game 181.8 13Yards Per Pass Attempt 5.5 1Sacks 2.7 30Turnovers 2.5 1


2018 46.5 17.9 2.02 -4 6-QB 37.2 6.25 12.07 6-DC 19.3 4.22 17.382017 Yes 40.5 5.9 0.9 2.6 6-QB, OC 26.9 6.02 15.79 4-DC 20.9 5.12 17.252016 47 23.9 2.26 -6.7 6- OC 37.1 6.53 12.12 6 13.2 4.28 19.482015 47 19.6 1.32 -6.8 9 34.1 5.89 11.69 10 14.5 4.56 21.1

• TEMPLE is 10-0 ATS (L10G) on ROAD - [vs OPP] After SU loss

• TEMPLE is 1-6 ATS (L7G) - VS MAC

• TEMPLE is 13-1-1 UNDER (L15G) at HOME - After a blowout SU loss 20 points or more





SCHEDULE STRENGTH

2019 SCHEDULE




SOUTH FLORIDABULLSLocation: Tampa, FL Stadium: Raymond James Stadium Head Coach: Charlie Strong - 3rd season2018 Record: 7-6Returning Starters: 15 - Offense: 9 QB - Defense: 6Offensive Coordinator: Kerwin Bell *Defensive Coordinator: Brian Jean-Mary

39

4 / 0.25

36.5 (#79 OF 130)

8/30/19 WISCONSIN9/7/19 at Georgia Tech9/14/19 S CAROLINA ST9/28/19 SMU HOME TEAMS are 1-3 SU but 4-0 ATS in L4 games of USF-SMU series10/5/19 at Connecticut UNDERDOGS are 4-7 SU but 8-2 ATS in CON-USF series since 200710/12/19 BYU10/19/19 at Navy10/26/19 at East Carolina SOUTH FLORIDA is 6-1 SU & ATS in its L7 games vs. EAST CAROLINA11/7/19 TEMPLE UNDERDOGS are 3-2 SU & 4-1 ATS in L5 games of TEM-USF series11/16/19 CINCINNATI SOUTH FLORIDA is 4-2 SU & 5-1 ATS in its L6 games vs. CINCINNATI11/23/19 MEMPHIS ROAD TEAMS are 6-2 SU & 7-0 ATS in L8 games of USF-MEM series11/29/19 at Ucf ROAD TEAMS are 4-3 SU & 6-1 ATS in L7 games of USF-UCF series

9/1/18 ELON 34-14 W -27.5 L 56.5 U9/8/18 GEORGIA TECH 49-38 W 3.5 W 60 O9/15/18 vs. Illinois 25-19 W -14 L 59 U9/22/18 EAST CAROLINA 20-13 W -19 L 67 U10/6/18 at Massachusetts 58-42 W -15.5 W 72.5 O10/12/18 at Tulsa 25-24 W -10 L 59.5 U10/20/18 CONNECTICUT 38-30 W -33.5 L 67.5 O10/27/18 at Houston 36-57 L 9.5 L 77.5 O11/3/18 TULANE 15-41 L -5.5 L 60.5 U11/10/18 at Cincinnati 23-35 L 15.5 W 51.5 O11/17/18 at Temple 17-27 L 14 W 62.5 U11/23/18 UCF 10-38 L 15.5 L 69.5 U12/20/18 MARSHALL 20-38 L 3 L 49 O

The total of 7 seems about right for this team. The juice is heavy to the over seeing that there are nine starters back on offense including former Power 5 conference players seniors QB Blake Barnett (Alabama/Arizona State) and RB Jordan Cronkite (Florida). Former Gators QB Kerwin Bell comes in as the new OC from being the HC at Valdosta State the last three seasons. Bell wants to play fast and score fast and that unit should be improved but the defense is still a major question mark. The Bulls gave up 30 points at UConn and 42 points at UMass plus gave up 38 in the Gasparilla Bowl to a Marshall club that only eclipsed 35 points a single time in the prior 12 games. That bowl loss for USF was in their own home stadium (Raymond James Stadium) where they only drew a paltry 14,135 and the crowd was the lowest in the history of that bowl game. Keep in mind that the previous games were held at the dumpy Tropicana Field. USF was the first team in college football history to start a season 7-0 and finish 7-6. That’s not a team

that inspires confidence going forward as it shows that they’ll quit if they have to undergo adversity. They beat one team with a winning record last season (Georgia Tech). There are a few coin flip games on the schedule that could go either way (BYU, at East Carolina, Temple, Cincinnati). More than likely they split those games and end up on 7, but I’d rather not lay almost two dollars on a club that seems to mail it in when times get tough.

UNDER 7FANDUEL




TOP TRENDS FOR 2019







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SOUTH FLORIDABULLS

Points Per Game 28 64Yards Per Point 15.4 83Plays Per Game 75 39Time of Possession 27:00 1203rd Down Conv. % 35.2% 99Total Yards Per Game 430.8 33Yards Per Play 5.7 49Rush Attempts Per Game 39.8 54Rush Yards Per Game 197.4 34Yards Per Rush Attempt 5 28Pass Attempts Per Game 32.2 60Completion % 57.8% 83Passing Yards Per Game 233.4 62Yards Per Pass Attempt 7.3 72Turnovers 1.8 99



2018 33 4.2 1.01 6.4 6 29.5 6.42 16.01 5 25.3 5.41 16.482017 Yes 49 18.5 1.66 -10.8 7- OC 37.3 6.25 14.01 9-DC 18.8 4.6 17.792016 49.5 22.2 2.67 -9.1 7 47.7 7.99 11.82 7-DC 25.5 5.32 17.392015 47.5 21 2.2 -0.3 4-QB 37 6.86 12.52 7-DC 16.1 4.65 20.84

• SOUTH FLORIDA is 7-0 ATS (L7G) on ROAD - Underdog of more than 20 points

• SOUTH FLORIDA is 2-12-1 ATS (L15G) at HOME - After a conference SU loss

• SOUTH FLORIDA is 10-0 UNDER (L10G) - Underdog of more than 20 points





SCHEDULE STRENGTH

2019 SCHEDULE




EAST CAROLINAPIRATESLocation: Greenville, NC Stadium: Bagwell Field at Dowdy–Ficklen Stadium Head Coach: Mike Houston - 1st season2018 Record: 3-9Returning Starters: 14 - Offense: 7 QB - Defense: 7Offensive Coordinator: Donnie Kirkpatrick *Defensive Coordinator: Bob Trott *

30

3 / -0.75

32.38 (#112 OF 130)

8/31/19 at NC State HOME TEAMS are 5-1 SU & ATS in L6 games of ECU-NCS series9/7/19 GARDNER WEBB9/14/19 at Navy OVER the total is 6-0 in L6 games of NAV-ECU series9/21/19 WILLIAM & MARY9/28/19 at Old Dominion10/3/19 TEMPLE TEMPLE is 5-1 SU & 6-0 ATS in its L6 games vs. EAST CAROLINA10/19/19 at Ucf UCF is 6-4 SU & 8-2 ATS vs. EAST CAROLINA since 200810/26/19 SOUTH FLORIDA SOUTH FLORIDA is 6-1 SU & ATS in its L7 games vs. EAST CAROLINA11/2/19 CINCINNATI HOME TEAMS are 11-5 SU & 13-3 ATS in ECU-CIN series since 199211/9/19 at SMU ROAD TEAMS are 4-1 SU & 5-0 ATS in L5 games of ECU-SMU series11/23/19 at Connecticut HOME TEAMS are 4-1 SU & ATS in L5 games of ECU-CON series11/30/19 TULSA HOME TEAMS are 5-1 SU & ATS in L6 games of TLS-ECU series

9/2/18 N CAROLINA A&T 23-28 L -14 L 65 U9/8/18 NORTH CAROLINA 41-19 W 15 W 59 O9/22/18 at South Florida 13-20 L 19 W 67 U9/29/18 OLD DOMINION 37-35 W -7 L 61.5 O10/6/18 at Temple 6-49 L 10 L 53 O10/13/18 HOUSTON 20-42 L 16 L 69 U10/20/18 UCF 10-37 L 21.5 L 65 U11/3/18 MEMPHIS 41-59 L 11 L 66.5 O11/10/18 at Tulane 18-24 L 10.5 W 52.5 U11/17/18 CONNECTICUT 55-21 W -17.5 W 71 O11/23/18 at Cincinnati 6-56 L 15 L 50.5 O12/1/18 at NC State 3-58 L 25.5 L 59.5 O

In what looks to be one of the best coaching upgrades in all of FBS, Mike Houston comes in from James Madison (2016 FCS Champion) to replace Scottie Montgomery, who was a disaster in his three seasons (9-27 overall; 1-15 away). Houston went 37-6 in his three seasons at JMU and actually won at East Carolina in 2017 (34-14). The Pirates only lose 20 lettermen and return 49, including 14 starters (4 OL, 3 DL). ECU has two likely wins versus FCS opponents (Gardner Webb, William & Mary) and more than likely at UConn. The games at Navy, at Old Dominion, at SMU and vs. Tulsa are also winnable games.

OVER 4FANDUEL




TOP TRENDS FOR 2019







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EAST CAROLINAPIRATES

Points Per Game 22.7 103Yards Per Point 18.4 127Plays Per Game 84 3Time of Possession 30:02 603rd Down Conv. % 36.0% 93Total Yards Per Game 417.4 44Yards Per Play 5 103Rush Attempts Per Game 36.2 91Rush Yards Per Game 135.3 102Yards Per Rush Attempt 3.7 102Pass Attempts Per Game 45.6 2Completion % 49.2% 124Passing Yards Per Game 282.1 20Yards Per Pass Attempt 6.2 112Turnovers 2 111

Points Per Game 38.2 117Yards Per Point 11.9 1223rd Down Conv. % 39.5% 65Total Yards Per Game 455.4 106Yards Per Play 6 99Rush Yards Per Game 177.7 77Yards Per Rush Attempt 4.4 68Completion % 62.0% 85Passing Yards Per Game 277.6 126Yards Per Pass Attempt 8.6 112Sacks 3 14Turnovers 1 117


2018 24.5 -5.5 -0.2 9.8 5 24.7 5.46 18.33 7-DC 30.2 5.66 13.422017 24 -7.5 -0.62 16.4 6-QB 29.3 6.24 16.68 6 36.8 6.86 13.092016 Yes 31 2.5 0.76 2.5 5-QB, OC 32.5 6.56 16.11 6-DC 30 5.81 13.622015 38.5 12.1 1.36 -1.2 6-QB, OC 32.7 6.27 14.04 5 20.6 4.91 17.76

• EAST CAROLINA is 5-2 ATS (L7G) on ROAD - [vs OPP] After a close SU loss 3 points or less

• EAST CAROLINA is 0-7 ATS (L7G) - as AP top 25

• EAST CAROLINA is 13-2 OVER (L15G) - Less than 6 days rest





SCHEDULE STRENGTH

2019 SCHEDULE




CONNECTICUTHUSKIESLocation: East Hartford, CT Stadium: Pratt & Whitney Stadium at Rentschler Field Head Coach: Randy Edsall - 14th season2018 Record: 1-11Returning Starters: 16 - Offense: 6 - Defense: 10Offensive Coordinator: Frank Giufre *Defensive Coordinator: Lou Spanos *

19

2 / -0.5

35.63 (#86 OF 130)

8/29/19 WAGNER9/7/19 ILLINOIS9/21/19 at Indiana9/28/19 at Ucf ROAD TEAMS are 4-1 SU & 5-0 ATS in L5 games of UCF-CON series10/5/19 SOUTH FLORIDA UNDERDOGS are 4-7 SU but 8-2 ATS in CON-USF series since 200710/12/19 at Tulane TULANE is 2-1 SU & 3-0 ATS in its L3 games vs. CONNECTICUT10/19/19 HOUSTON10/26/19 at Massachusetts11/1/19 NAVY FAVORITES are 3-0 SU & ATS in L3 games of CON-NAV series11/9/19 at Cincinnati UNDER the total is 5-0 in L5 games of CON-CIN series11/23/19 EAST CAROLINA HOME TEAMS are 4-1 SU & ATS in L5 games of ECU-CON series11/30/19 at Temple UNDER the total is 10-0 in TEM-CON series since 2001

8/30/18 UCF 17-56 L 23.5 L 69 O9/8/18 at Boise St 7-62 L 33.5 L 63 O9/15/18 RHODE ISLAND 56-49 W -9 L 61.5 O9/22/18 at Syracuse 21-51 L 31 W 74.5 U9/29/18 CINCINNATI 7-49 L 16 L 62.5 U10/6/18 at Memphis 14-55 L 35.5 L 77.5 U10/20/18 at South Florida 30-38 L 33.5 W 67.5 O10/27/18 MASSACHUSETTS 17-22 L 3.5 L 64.5 U11/3/18 at Tulsa 19-49 L 18.5 L 59.5 O11/10/18 SMU 50-62 L 17.5 W 66.5 O11/17/18 at East Carolina 21-55 L 17.5 L 71 O11/24/18 TEMPLE 7-57 L 30.5 L 68.5 U

The Huskies went 1-11 last season and barely beat FCS Rhode Island, 56-49. While they might make a slight improvement returning 61 lettermen and 16 starters, this is a program that has lost 17 straight vs. FBS foes. Last season, UConn was outgained by an average of 241 ypg and outscored by 28 ppg. They gave up 605 total points in the 2018 campaign. Earlier this summer it was announced that UConn will be returning to the Big East in 2020. The problem from a football perspective is that the Big East is a non-football conference. So you already have a program with an uncertain future in an athletic department that lost over $41 million just in 2018. This season may not get worse than last year for the Huskies, but it doesn’t seem to be getting much better.

UNDER 2.5FANDUEL




TOP TRENDS FOR 2019







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CONNECTICUTHUSKIES

Points Per Game 19.1 120Yards Per Point 18.9 129Plays Per Game 72.3 65Time of Possession 31:23 323rd Down Conv. % 41.1% 45Total Yards Per Game 360.1 98Yards Per Play 5 102Rush Attempts Per Game 40.5 44Rush Yards Per Game 193.9 40Yards Per Rush Attempt 4.8 39Pass Attempts Per Game 29.5 81Completion % 55.3% 98Passing Yards Per Game 166.2 112Yards Per Pass Attempt 5.6 125Turnovers 2.3 124



2018 13.5 -17.3 -2.09 26.9 7-OC 24.7 5.91 16.99 2 41.9 7.99 13.372017 Yes 26 -4.4 -0.06 16.6 7- OC 23.9 6.1 19.28 7-DC 28.3 6.16 16.672016 23.5 -3.1 0.1 8 10 19.8 5.32 17.87 6 22.9 5.22 16.412015 36 7.4 0.62 8 6-QB, OC 23.4 5.43 14.89 8 16 4.81 20.28

• CONNECTICUT is 20-8-1 ATS (S2000) at HOME - In November

• CONNECTICUT is 1-14 ATS (L15G) - Nonconference VS NON-POWER 5

• CONNECTICUT is 10-0 UNDER (L10G) - VS TEMPLE





SCHEDULE STRENGTH

2019 SCHEDULE




MEMPHISTIGERSLocation: Memphis, TN Stadium: Liberty Bowl Memorial Stadium Head Coach: Mike Norvell - 4th season2018 Record: 8-6Returning Starters: 14 - Offense: 6 QB - Defense: 8Offensive Coordinator: Kevin Johns *Defensive Coordinator: Adam Fuller *

49

4 / 0

33.77 (#105 OF 130)

8/31/19 OLE MISS HOME TEAMS are 6-2 SU & 6-1 ATS in L8 games of MEM-MIS series9/7/19 SOUTHERN9/14/19 at S Alabama9/26/19 NAVY NAVY is 3-1 SU & 4-0 ATS in its L4 games vs. MEMPHIS10/5/19 at LA Monroe10/12/19 at Temple TEMPLE is 4-0 ATS in its L4 games vs. MEMPHIS10/19/19 TULANE MEMPHIS is 14-4 SU & 13-4 ATS vs. TULANE since 199510/26/19 at Tulsa ROAD TEAMS are 7-6 SU & 10-3 ATS in MEM-TLS series since 199211/2/19 SMU FAVORITES are 5-0 SU & ATS in L5 games of MEM-SMU series11/16/19 at Houston MEMPHIS is 7-8 SU but 9-6 ATS vs. HOUSTON since 200011/23/19 at South Florida ROAD TEAMS are 6-2 SU & 7-0 ATS in L8 games of USF-MEM series11/29/19 CINCINNATI CINCINNATI is 3-2 SU & 5-0 ATS in its L5 games at MEMPHIS

9/1/18 MERCER 66-14 W -31 W 65.5 O9/8/18 at Navy 21-22 L -6.5 L 67 U9/14/18 GEORGIA ST 59-22 W -29 W 63.5 O9/22/18 S ALABAMA 52-35 W -31.5 L 66 O9/28/18 at Tulane 24-40 L -14.5 L 66 U10/6/18 CONNECTICUT 55-14 W -35.5 W 77.5 U10/13/18 UCF 30-31 L 4.5 W 80 U10/20/18 at Missouri 33-65 L 9 L 70.5 O11/3/18 at East Carolina 59-41 W -11 W 66.5 O11/10/18 TULSA 47-21 W -15.5 W 65.5 O11/16/18 at SMU 28-18 W -8 W 75 U11/23/18 HOUSTON 52-31 W -10 W 76 O12/1/18 at UCF 41-56 L 1 L 65 O12/22/18 vs. Wake Forest 34-37 L -2.5 L 71 T

This is a legit dark horse candidate for the New Year’s Six. First, they only play four games against FBS opponents with winning records last season. Although three of those contests are on the road (at Temple, at Houston, at USF), the Tigers will be favored in every game. They also get their bye weeks at opportune times with one coming before the game at Navy that gives them an extra week to prepare for the triple option and the other before playing at Houston, who should be their closest competitor in the division. Next, Memphis slowed the tempo a bit on offense last year with a first-year starting QB in Brady White after the graduation of Riley Ferguson. This year with new OC Kevin Johns (81 plays/game last year at Texas Tech; 4th nationally) running the offense, expect Memphis to speed it up. The other coordinators are also a bit of an upgrade on Mike Norvell’s staff. Adam Fuller led a Top 25 national defense last season at Marshall and Pete Lembo, the former head coach at Ball State from 2011-2015, is an

excellent special teams coach. The Tigers also lost three games by three points or less last season (at Navy, UCF and Wake Forest in the Birmingham Bowl). With a productive QB in his second year, 11 of their top 12 tacklers back, upgrades on the coaching staff and a manageable schedule, the Tigers have a solid shot to go unbeaten in the regular season. At 7/2 (+350), the Tigers are also worth a look to win the AAC Championship.

OVER 9.5CAESARS


2019 AMERICAN ATHLETIC CONFERENCE WEST DIVISION


TOP TRENDS FOR 2019







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MEMPHISTIGERS

Points Per Game 41.2 8Yards Per Point 12.3 17Plays Per Game 74.3 45Time of Possession 28:46 963rd Down Conv. % 45.5% 19Total Yards Per Game 505.5 6Yards Per Play 6.8 7Rush Attempts Per Game 43.7 15Rush Yards Per Game 276.5 4Yards Per Rush Attempt 6.3 3Pass Attempts Per Game 28.8 89Completion % 61.0% 47Passing Yards Per Game 229 67Yards Per Pass Attempt 8 30Turnovers 1.2 33



2018 47 17.2 2.34 -5.2 7-OC 42.2 7.68 13.24 8 25 5.34 16.082017 50.5 21.7 2.57 -7.4 9 43.8 8.04 13.5 6 22.1 5.47 20.072016 Yes 46 23.2 1.84 -6.5 6-QB, OC 43 6.96 11.9 7-DC 19.8 5.12 20.432015 49.5 24 1.78 -9 8 42.8 6.89 12.89 3-DC 18.8 5.12 20.19

• MEMPHIS is 21-4 ATS (L25G) on ROAD - In November

• MEMPHIS is 0-7 ATS (L7G) on ROAD - [vs OPP] After a blowout SU win of 20 points or more

• MEMPHIS is 21-4 UNDER (L25G) on ROAD - In November





SCHEDULE STRENGTH

2019 SCHEDULE




HOUSTONCOUGARSLocation: Houston, TX Stadium: John O’Quinn Field at TDECU Stadium Head Coach: Dana Holgorsen - 1st season2018 Record: 8-5Returning Starters: 12 - Offense: 8 QB - Defense: 4Offensive Coordinator: Marquel Blackwell / Brandon Jones *Defensive Coordinator: Joe Cauthen / Doug Belk *

40

4 / 0

38.58 (#70 OF 130)

8/31/19 at Oklahoma9/7/19 PRAIRIE VIEW9/13/19 vs. Washington St9/19/19 at Tulane FAVORITES are 13-2 SU & 12-3 ATS in HOU-TUL series since 20039/28/19 at North Texas FAVORITES are 3-0 SU & ATS in L3 games of HOU-NTX series10/12/19 CINCINNATI CINCINNATI is 8-4 SU & 8-3 ATS vs. HOUSTON since 199310/19/19 at Connecticut10/24/19 SMU UNDER the total is 5-1 in L6 games of HOU-SMU series at HOUSTON11/2/19 at Ucf ROAD TEAMS are 6-0 ATS in L6 games of HOU-UCF series11/16/19 MEMPHIS MEMPHIS is 7-8 SU but 9-6 ATS vs. HOUSTON since 200011/23/19 at Tulsa UNDERDOGS are 8-7 SU & 12-3 ATS in TLS-HOU series since 199211/30/19 NAVY

9/1/18 at Rice 45-27 W -25 L 56 O9/8/18 ARIZONA 45-18 W -3.5 W 71 U9/15/18 at Texas Tech 49-63 L 2 L 68.5 O9/22/18 TEXAS SOUTHERN 70-14 W -55.5 W 65 O10/4/18 TULSA 41-26 W -17 L 72 U10/13/18 at East Carolina 42-20 W -16 W 69 U10/20/18 at Navy 49-36 W -11 W 59.5 O10/27/18 SOUTH FLORIDA 57-36 W -9.5 W 77.5 O11/3/18 at SMU 31-45 L -14 L 71.5 O11/10/18 TEMPLE 49-59 L -3 L 69.5 O11/15/18 TULANE 48-17 W -7.5 W 67.5 U11/23/18 at Memphis 31-52 L 10 L 76 O12/22/18 vs. Army 14-70 L 6.5 L 55.5 O

The Dana Holgorsen era gets under way in a hurry with an opening week trip to Oklahoma. This should be a good hire long-term as Holgorsen returns to Houston, where he served as OC/QB coach in 2008-2009. Nevertheless, this is a new system being brought in this season. QB D’Eriq King accounted for 50 total touchdowns (36 passing, 14 rushing) and just under 3800 yards of total offense and that side of the ball will always be potent under Holgorsen’s tutelage; however, questions remain whether the Cougars can stop anyone. Last year, they allowed 45 ppg per game in the second half of the season. Houston allowed Army to hang 70 on them in the Armed Forces Bowl. This is after playing Navy a few weeks prior. Granted the Cougars were very banged up on defense but it is concerning that they showed such

poor discipline, the key to stopping the triple option, with extra preparation time. Houston does have to face UCF (Memphis avoids them) and will be prepping for that triple option during Thanksgiving week as they host Navy. With seven and the hook, the under is still worth a look but at seven it would be a pass.

UNDER 7.5WESTGATE




TOP TRENDS FOR 2019







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HOUSTONCOUGARS

Points Per Game 41.8 7Yards Per Point 12 12Plays Per Game 79 11Time of Possession 24:44 1293rd Down Conv. % 44.8% 21Total Yards Per Game 499.2 8Yards Per Play 6.3 13Rush Attempts Per Game 41.1 30Rush Yards Per Game 211.3 25Yards Per Rush Attempt 5.1 21Pass Attempts Per Game 35.4 36Completion % 59.1% 66Passing Yards Per Game 287.9 19Yards Per Pass Attempt 8.1 24Turnovers 1.5 71



2018 42.5 15.2 1.4 -2.8 5-QB, OC 45.2 6.96 12.03 5 30.1 5.56 15.792017 Yes 44 14.7 1.8 -2.4 8-QB, OC 28.4 6.72 16.87 7-DC 13.7 4.92 27.962016 49.5 23.9 1.48 -8 6 40.6 5.92 12.25 5 16.8 4.44 17.992015 Yes 51 23.9 1.28 -7.8 5- OC 41 6.55 12.32 6-DC 17.1 5.27 21.57

• HOUSTON is 19-6 ATS (S2000) - [vs OPP] Less than 6 days rest

• HOUSTON is 0-8 ATS (L8G) on ROAD - [vs OPP] After a close SU loss 3 points or less

• HOUSTON is 10-0 OVER (L10G) - Underdog of 7 or less points





SCHEDULE STRENGTH

2019 SCHEDULE




SMUMUSTANGSLocation: University Park, TX Stadium: Gerald J. Ford Stadium Head Coach: Sonny Dykes - 2nd season2018 Record: 5-7Returning Starters: 16 - Offense: 7 - Defense: 9Offensive Coordinator: Rhett LashleeDefensive Coordinator: Kevin Kane

36.5

3 / -0.75

38.33 (#72 OF 130)

8/31/19 at Arkansas St FAVORITES are 3-0 SU & ATS in L3 games of SMU-AKS series9/7/19 NORTH TEXAS FAVORITES are 5-0 SU & ATS in L5 games of NTX-SMU series9/14/19 TEXAS ST UNIV9/21/19 at TCU ROAD TEAMS are 4-2 SU & 6-0 ATS in L6 games of SMU-TCU series9/28/19 at South Florida HOME TEAMS are 1-3 SU but 4-0 ATS in L4 games of USF-SMU series10/5/19 TULSA UNDERDOGS are 5-11 SU but 13-3 ATS in TLS-SMU series since 200210/19/19 TEMPLE TEMPLE is 2-1 SU & 3-0 ATS in its L3 games vs. SMU10/24/19 at Houston UNDER the total is 5-1 in L6 games of HOU-SMU series at HOUSTON11/2/19 at Memphis FAVORITES are 5-0 SU & ATS in L5 games of MEM-SMU series11/9/19 EAST CAROLINA ROAD TEAMS are 4-1 SU & 5-0 ATS in L5 games of ECU-SMU series11/23/19 at Navy NAVY is 5-1 SU & ATS in its L6 games vs. SMU11/30/19 TULANE ROAD TEAMS are 9-7 SU & 13-3 ATS in TUL-SMU series since 1992

9/1/18 at North Texas 23-46 L 3 L 71 U9/7/18 TCU 12-42 L 23.5 L 59 U9/15/18 at Michigan 20-45 L 36.5 W 55 O9/22/18 NAVY 31-30 W 6.5 W 58 O9/29/18 HOUSTON BAPTIST 63-27 W -44.5 L 69.5 O10/6/18 at UCF 20-48 L 26 L 73 U10/20/18 at Tulane 27-23 W 9.5 W 55 U10/27/18 CINCINNATI 20-26 L 8.5 W 49.5 U11/3/18 HOUSTON 45-31 W 14 W 71.5 O11/10/18 at Connecticut 62-50 W -17.5 L 66.5 O11/16/18 MEMPHIS 18-28 L 8 L 75 U11/24/18 at Tulsa 24-27 L -2.5 L 54.5 U

The big story with this club is the incoming transfer of former Texas QB Shane Buechele. Buechele had 19 starts in Austin and threw for 4636 yards to go with 30 TD versus 16 INT. He also completed 62 percent of his passes which is an upgrade of the 56 percent mark produced by Ben Hicks. In fact, Hicks, who is SMU’s all-time passing leader, was told there would be open competition for the job and elected to transfer. This tells us that SMU feels better about its QB position and that Sonny Dykes will go to his usual passing-heavy offense. On defense, SMU returns nine starters and eight of its top 11 tacklers. Both sides of the ball should be upgraded and the Mustangs get a more favorable schedule being able to avoid the top two in the East: UCF and Cincinnati.

OVER 6FANDUEL




TOP TRENDS FOR 2019







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SMUMUSTANGS


Points Per Game 36 109Yards Per Point 12.3 1153rd Down Conv. % 47.8% 121Total Yards Per Game 443.8 93Yards Per Play 5.6 68Rush Yards Per Game 211.6 101Yards Per Rush Attempt 4.5 71Completion % 64.2% 112Passing Yards Per Game 232.2 66Yards Per Pass Attempt 7.7 85Sacks 2.1 63Turnovers 1.7 34


2018 Yes 35.5 4.2 0.71 7.7 6-QB, OC 31.9 5.83 13.23 8-DC 27.7 5.12 14.352017 35.5 13.3 1.06 3 9 39.7 7.22 13.6 5 26.3 6.15 17.022016 37 6 1.03 0.7 9 32.2 6.33 15.28 7 26.2 5.3 15.252015 Yes 26 -4.4 -0.28 11.7 9- OC 30.2 6.02 14.43 7-DC 34.6 6.3 12.92

• SMU is 8-2 ATS (L3Y) at HOME - On Saturday

• SMU is 0-15 ATS (L15G) - Before playing TULSA

• SMU is 7-0 OVER (L7G) at HOME - [vs OPP] 1000 or more travel miles





SCHEDULE STRENGTH

2019 SCHEDULE




TULANEGREEN WAVELocation: New Orleans, LA Stadium: Benson Field at Yulman Stadium Head Coach: Willie Fritz - 4th season2018 Record: 7-6Returning Starters: 13 - Offense: 5 QB - Defense: 8Offensive Coordinator: Will Hall *Defensive Coordinator: Jack Curtis

35.5

3.75 / -0.75

38.13 (#74 OF 130)

8/29/19 FLA INTERNATIONAL9/7/19 at Auburn9/14/19 MISSOURI ST9/19/19 HOUSTON FAVORITES are 13-2 SU & 12-3 ATS in HOU-TUL series since 200310/5/19 at Army HOME TEAMS are 10-7 SU & 10-6 ATS in ARM-TUL series since 199610/12/19 CONNECTICUT TULANE is 2-1 SU & 3-0 ATS in its L3 games vs. CONNECTICUT10/19/19 at Memphis MEMPHIS is 14-4 SU & 13-4 ATS vs. TULANE since 199510/26/19 at Navy NAVY is 10-7 SU & 11-5 ATS vs. TULANE since 199211/2/19 TULSA FAVORITES are 5-0 SU & ATS in L5 games of TLS-TUL series11/16/19 at Temple FAVORITES are 3-0 SU & ATS in L3 games of TEM-TUL series11/23/19 UCF HOME TEAMS are 7-1 SU & 5-2 ATS in L8 games of TUL-UCF series11/30/19 at SMU ROAD TEAMS are 9-7 SU & 13-3 ATS in TUL-SMU series since 1992

8/30/18 WAKE FOREST 17-23 L 7.5 W 55.5 U9/8/18 NICHOLLS ST 42-17 W -17 W 49.5 O9/15/18 at UAB 24-31 L -3.5 L 58 U9/22/18 at Ohio St 6-49 L 38 L 66 U9/28/18 MEMPHIS 40-24 W 14.5 W 66 U10/6/18 at Cincinnati 21-37 L 7 L 48 O10/20/18 SMU 23-27 L -9.5 L 55 U10/27/18 at Tulsa 24-17 W -2 W 48 U11/3/18 at South Florida 41-15 W 5.5 W 60.5 U11/10/18 EAST CAROLINA 24-18 W -10.5 L 52.5 U11/15/18 at Houston 17-48 L 7.5 L 67.5 U11/24/18 NAVY 29-28 W -6 L 50 O12/15/18 vs. La Lafayette 41-24 W -3.5 W 60 O

The Green Wave have improved every season under Willie Fritz going 4-8, 5-7 and 7-6 in succession the last three seasons. In his fourth season, Fritz finally has all of his recruits to run his spread option offense. Tulane won five of its last six once they went to graduate transfer QB Justin McMillan. The former LSU product led them to road victories in his first two starts at Tulsa and South Florida. The Wave should start no worse than 2-2 through September and a home game with Houston is winnable. Then they will have a bye before traveling to Army and facing the triple option. Connecticut and Tulsa are home games where they will be favored. They will likely have to steal one on the road at Navy, Army or SMU but this program looks to be on an upward trajectory.

OVER 5.5FANDUEL




TOP TRENDS FOR 2019







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TULANEGREEN WAVE




2018 38.5 8.4 1.27 5.1 9-QB 28.7 6.41 15.25 5 20.2 5.14 18.942017 35 8.2 0.31 7.8 8 28.4 6.4 15.33 8 20.2 6.1 19.662016 Yes 33.5 6.9 0.45 9.6 5-QB, OC 28.6 5.34 13.22 8-DC 21.6 4.89 15.362015 22 -8 -0.25 15.6 9 23.6 5.15 14.56 7 31.5 5.4 12.14

• TULANE is 6-1 ATS (L7G) on ROAD - AT GERALD J. FORD STADIUM

• TULANE is 5-20 ATS (L25G) at HOME - After a conference SU loss

• TULANE is 14-1 UNDER (L15G) at HOME - [vs OPP] More than 6 days rest





SCHEDULE STRENGTH

2019 SCHEDULE




TULSAGOLDEN HURRICANELocation: Tulsa, OK Stadium: Skelly Field at H. A. Chapman Stadium Head Coach: Philip Montgomery - 5th season2018 Record: 3-9Returning Starters: 14 - Offense: 6 QB - Defense: 8Offensive Coordinator: Philip MontgomeryDefensive Coordinator: Joseph Gillespie *

34

3 / 0.75

39.85 (#68 OF 130)

8/30/19 at Michigan St9/7/19 at San Jose St HOME TEAMS are 5-2 SU & ATS in L7 games of SJS-TLS series9/14/19 OKLAHOMA ST HOME TEAMS are 8-2 SU & ATS in OKS-TLS series since 19949/21/19 WYOMING HOME TEAMS are 3-0 SU & ATS in L3 games of WYO-TLS series10/5/19 at SMU UNDERDOGS are 5-11 SU but 13-3 ATS in TLS-SMU series since 200210/12/19 NAVY NAVY is 3-0 SU & ATS in its L3 games at TULSA10/19/19 at Cincinnati ROAD TEAMS are 1-4 SU but 5-0 ATS in L5 games of TLS-CIN series10/26/19 MEMPHIS ROAD TEAMS are 7-6 SU & 10-3 ATS in MEM-TLS series since 199211/2/19 at Tulane FAVORITES are 5-0 SU & ATS in L5 games of TLS-TUL series11/8/19 UCF UNDER the total is 6-2 in L8 games of UCF-TLS series11/23/19 HOUSTON UNDERDOGS are 8-7 SU & 12-3 ATS in TLS-HOU series since 199211/30/19 at East Carolina HOME TEAMS are 5-1 SU & ATS in L6 games of TLS-ECU series

9/1/18 C ARKANSAS 38-27 W -11.5 L 62 O9/8/18 at Texas 21-28 L 21 W 59.5 U9/15/18 ARKANSAS ST 20-29 L -1.5 L 71 U9/20/18 at Temple 17-31 L 6 L 54.5 U10/4/18 at Houston 26-41 L 17 W 72 U10/12/18 SOUTH FLORIDA 24-25 L 10 W 59.5 U10/20/18 at Arkansas 0-23 L 7 L 53.5 U10/27/18 TULANE 17-24 L 2 L 48 U11/3/18 CONNECTICUT 49-19 W -18.5 W 59.5 O11/10/18 at Memphis 21-47 L 15.5 L 65.5 O11/17/18 at Navy 29-37 L 5.5 L 51 O11/24/18 SMU 27-24 W 2.5 W 54.5 U

The Golden Hurricane have not won a road game in two years so they will need at least one to reach this total (Week 2 at San Jose State is best opportunity). Tulsa never really could settle on a QB last season but adds Baylor transfer Zach Smith (10 starts in two seasons there) and he looks to be the front-runner to win the gig. Their leading rusher Shamari Brooks returns along with three of their top four receivers so the offense (only 24.1 ppg last year) should be improved. The defense returns 10 of its top 11 tacklers but do replace their DC Bill Young. Last season Tulsa had its best defense in HC Philip Montgomery’s four seasons and it should improve as well with so much returning personnel. The conference schedule is tough plus they have nonconference tilts at Michigan State and vs. Oklahoma State but

they should be better on both sides of the ball and will have an outside shot at a bowl game with so many teams in the Western Division being equal.

OVER 4.5FANDUEL




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TULSAGOLDEN HURRICANE




2018 33 1.8 0.13 10.4 8-QB 24.9 5.41 16.23 7 23.1 5.28 16.522017 30 2.4 -0.26 10.3 7-QB 29.6 6.37 15.84 6 27.2 6.63 17.592016 50 19.7 1.6 -9.6 7 45.5 6.68 12.61 7 25.8 5.08 15.482015 Yes 34 5.8 0.48 10.3 10- OC 36.9 6.54 14.76 6-DC 31.1 6.05 15.86

• TULSA is 6-1 ATS (L7G) at HOME - [vs OPP] After a close SU win of 3 points or less

• TULSA is 0-6-1 ATS (L7G) at HOME - Nonconference VS POWER 5

• TULSA is 6-1 OVER (L7G) at HOME - Nonconference VS POWER 5





SCHEDULE STRENGTH

2019 SCHEDULE




NAVYMIDSHIPMENLocation: Annapolis, MD Stadium: Navy–Marine Corps Memorial Stadium Head Coach: Ken Niumatalolo - 13th season2018 Record: 3-10Returning Starters: 8 - Offense: 4 QB - Defense: 4Offensive Coordinator: Ivin JasperDefensive Coordinator: Brian Newberry *

28.5

4.25 / 0

35.56 (#89 OF 130)

8/31/19 HOLY CROSS9/14/19 EAST CAROLINA OVER the total is 6-0 in L6 games of NAV-ECU series9/26/19 at Memphis NAVY is 3-1 SU & 4-0 ATS in its L4 games vs. MEMPHIS10/5/19 AIR FORCE UNDER the total is 12-3 in AF-NAV series since 199210/12/19 at Tulsa NAVY is 3-0 SU & ATS in its L3 games at TULSA10/19/19 SOUTH FLORIDA10/26/19 TULANE NAVY is 10-7 SU & 11-5 ATS vs. TULANE since 199211/1/19 at Connecticut FAVORITES are 3-0 SU & ATS in L3 games of CON-NAV series11/16/19 at Notre Dame ROAD TEAMS are 2-12 SU but 12-2 ATS in ND-NAV series since 199311/23/19 SMU NAVY is 5-1 SU & ATS in its L6 games vs. SMU11/30/19 at Houston12/14/19 vs. Army UNDER the total is 13-0 in NAV-ARM series since 2006

9/1/18 at Hawaii 41-59 L -14 L 62.5 O9/8/18 MEMPHIS 22-21 W 6.5 W 67 U9/15/18 LEHIGH 51-21 W -33 L 57.5 O9/22/18 at SMU 30-31 L -6.5 L 58 O10/6/18 at Air Force 7-35 L -2 L 47 U10/13/18 TEMPLE 17-24 L 6.5 L 49 U10/20/18 HOUSTON 36-49 L 11 L 59.5 O10/27/18 vs. Notre Dame 22-44 L 22.5 W 57 O11/3/18 at Cincinnati 0-42 L 13 L 47 U11/10/18 at UCF 24-35 L 23.5 W 69 U11/17/18 TULSA 37-29 W -5.5 W 51 O11/24/18 at Tulane 28-29 L 6 W 50 O12/8/18 vs. Army 10-17 L 7.5 W 38.5 U

The Midshipmen had their worst season since 2002’s 2-10 campaign. They also lose a senior class that started over 60% of its games, which was the third most in the nation. Navy was especially poor on defense last season having given up the highest points per game (33.5) in the last seven seasons. While the Middies have slipped, they should have a slight rebound with a much more manageable schedule at least early on. Last year, they opened at Hawai’i but this year they ease into the season with a home opener vs. Holy Cross, then a bye, followed by East Carolina and a second September bye before closing the month at Memphis. Ordinarily having the byes front loaded might not be a good thing but it might work to Navy’s advantage incorporating so many new starters. This year they are also

tailoring the offense more to returning starting QB Malcolm Perry’s liking so expect even more running the ball from under center.

OVER 5FANDUEL




TOP TRENDS FOR 2019







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NAVYMIDSHIPMEN

Points Per Game 22.8 100Yards Per Point 14.3 66Plays Per Game 66.8 110Time of Possession 33:00 133rd Down Conv. % 37.4% 79Total Yards Per Game 326.2 119Yards Per Play 4.9 108Rush Attempts Per Game 55.6 4Rush Yards Per Game 259.3 9Yards Per Rush Attempt 4.7 44Pass Attempts Per Game 9.6 127Completion % 41.7% 130Passing Yards Per Game 66.8 130Yards Per Pass Attempt 7 86Turnovers 1.2 37

Points Per Game 34.6 103Yards Per Point 12.6 1093rd Down Conv. % 46.9% 119Total Yards Per Game 434.5 89Yards Per Play 6.6 120Rush Yards Per Game 194.6 89Yards Per Rush Attempt 5.1 103Completion % 69.7% 127Passing Yards Per Game 239.9 77Yards Per Pass Attempt 9 121Sacks 0.8 129Turnovers 1.3 88


2018 35 2.1 -0.09 5.7 4-QB 29.5 5.96 13.59 5 27.3 6.05 14.592017 44 14.4 1.17 -3.5 4-QB 32.4 6.93 15.55 8 18 5.76 19.662016 45 20.1 1.81 -4.5 1-QB 42.2 7.63 12.1 7 22.1 5.82 17.832015 48 24.9 1.83 -6.1 4 40.3 6.94 11.37 6 15.3 5.11 22.27

• NAVY is 11-1 ATS (L12G) on ROAD - After a close SU win of 3 points or less

• NAVY is 2-8 ATS (L10G) - After playing NOTRE DAME

• NAVY is 10-0 UNDER (L10G) - VS ARMY



ATLANTIC COASTCONFERENCE PREVIEW


ATLANTIC DIVISIONCLEMSON 71.5 3.25 0.75 42.60 57 11.6 0.4 7.8 0.2FLORIDA ST 51.5 3 -0.5 43.56 50 7.3 4.7 4.7 3.3NC STATE 47 3 0.5 40.60 65 7.4 4.6 4.1 3.9SYRACUSE 47.5 3.5 -0.5 42.65 56 7.2 4.8 4.0 4.0BOSTON COLL 43.5 3 0.5 44.19 45 5.8 6.2 3.1 4.9WAKE FOREST 43 3 0.5 43.06 55 6.1 5.9 3.0 5.0LOUISVILLE 38 3.25 -0.5 46.75 22 3.4 8.6 1.7 6.3

COASTAL DIVISIONMIAMI FL 52 3.25 -0.25 40.90 64 8.4 3.6 5.4 2.6VIRGINIA TECH 49.5 4 0.25 39.88 67 8.1 3.9 5.0 3.0VIRGINIA 49 2.5 -0.5 41.21 63 7.7 4.3 4.6 3.4PITTSBURGH 46 2.5 0 45.35 37 6.1 5.9 3.8 4.2DUKE 44 3 0.5 46.38 26 5.3 6.7 3.5 4.5NORTH CAROLINA 44.5 3.75 -0.25 46.31 27 5.2 6.8 3.0 5.0GEORGIA TECH 40.5 3.75 -0.5 47.17 17 4.3 7.7 2.3 5.7



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GAMEATLANTIC DIVISION CLEMSON CLEMSON CLEMSON CLEMSON CLEMSON CLEMSON CLEMSON CLEMSON

COASTAL DIVISION VIRGINIA VIRGINIA

TECHMIAMI

(FL)VIRGINIA

TECHVIRGINIA

TECH VIRGINIA MIAMI (FL)

VIRGINIA TECH

ACC CHAMPIONSHIP CLEMSON CLEMSON CLEMSON CLEMSON CLEMSON CLEMSON CLEMSON CLEMSON

WRITTEN BY WES REYNOLDS - @WESREYNOLDS1


Clemson (Atlantic Division) and Miami FL (Coastal Division)The Clemson Tigers are currently on a 21-game winning streak (last loss Oct. 13, 2017, at Syracuse) and are the reigning National Champions and have taken home the title in two of the last three seasons. Expectations are high again in Death Valley with Heisman Trophy co-favorite (11/4) sophomore QB Trevor Lawrence, leading rusher Travis Etienne (1,658 yards; 24 TD) and five of their top six receivers back. The Tigers averaged 44.3 ppg and could very well be the nation’s top offense with eight starters back. The losses are much heavier on the defensive side where the entire starting unit of the best defensive line in college football was selected in the 2019 NFL Draft, including three of the top 17 overall picks. Five Clemson defensive starters overall were drafted by the middle of the fourth round. Nevertheless, the Tigers don’t rebuild; they reload as the new defensive line starters are all four-star recruits or better. Clemson has won 10 straight games by 20+ points, including a thrashing of then-No. 1 Alabama, 44-16, in the CFP Championship. No one in the Atlantic can get in their way. The Coastal Division is way more wide open as Miami, Virginia Tech and Virginia could all stake a claim. Most oddsmakers have Miami as a small favorite even with a first-year HC in Manny Diaz (DC the last 3 years). The Hurricanes defense was elIte yet again, only allowing 279 ypg and 19.5 ppg with 40 sacks and the “Turnover Chain” making an appearance 25 times. The key to Miami’s success will be if they can settle on one QB because the defense should be stout yet again.

Wake Forest (Atlantic) and Virginia Tech (Coastal)While certainly not a contender for the division, Wake Forest is the team under the radar. Last year, Wake finished the season with its third QB on the preseason depth chart (Jamie Newman) but still won three of its last four including road wins at NC State, at Duke and a Birmingham Bowl comeback win over Memphis. In April, HC Dave Clawson was signed to an eight-year contract extension so his bosses clearly believe the program is heading in a positive direction. This year they can realistically start out 4-0 going into conference play. In addition, this team won four times outright as underdogs last season. Virginia Tech endured its first losing season since 1992 after losing the Military Bowl to Cincinnati and finishing 6-7. The usually stout and highly-ranked Hokies defense was decimated by injuries and lost three starters before the season even began and ended up allowing 31 ppg and 437 ypg. This year, longtime DC Bud Foster welcomes back 10 starters. They also should be better on offense with Ryan Willis solidified as the starting QB and better depth with the addition of highly touted Oregon transfer Braxton Burmeister. Almost 60% of their overall starts were made by freshmen or sophomores last season, so the Hokies should be much improved with 41 returning letter-winners that have been through the fire and the adversity of a disappointing season.

Louisville (Atlantic) and Georgia Tech (Coastal)The Cardinals were expected to have a bit of a drop-off last season with the loss of Lamar Jackson, but the slight drop-off was more like a dumpster fire, leading to Bobby Petrino being shown the door with two games left in the season. Louisville had six losses of 31 points or more last season. Scott Satterfield, coming in from Appalachian State, could very well be a good hire long-term but this team is going to need more than a year to get competitive again. Playing 10 teams that went bowling last season won’t exactly expedite the process. Georgia Tech is switching to a spread attack under new coach Geoff Collins after Paul Johnson retired. However, the bulk of this team was recruited to run the triple option and the defense only returns four starters. The departing senior class from last season also started 60 percent of the games for the Yellow Jackets. It’s going to take time for this team to learn new concepts on both sides of the ball and it’s going to take a couple of recruiting classes for Collins to get the players he wants especially to run a more pro-style offense. Starting the season on the road against the defending National Champions is more than being thrown into the deep end of the pool.

2019 ATLANTIC COAST CONFERENCE PREVIEW

THE FAVORITES

LIVE DOGS

DEAD MONEY

BIG GAMES ON THE BOARDFlorida vs. Miami (Orlando, FL), Aug. 24These two recruiting rivals meet for the first time since 2013 and only for the second time in the last 15 years. Miami HC Manny Diaz gets an early baptism for his first game as head coach, taking on a 10-win Florida team that’s a dark horse SEC contender under Dan Mullen.

Texas A&M at Clemson, Sept. 7Texas A&M made a furious comeback but a failed two-point conversion allowed Clemson to escape College Station last season.

Clemson at Syracuse, Sept. 14Florida State is really Clemson’s chief rival in the Atlantic Division but it’s been Syracuse that has really been the biggest obstacle for the Tigers in recent seasons. The Orange upset the then second-ranked

Tigers and nearly ruined their CFP hopes in 2017. They nearly did the same last year in Death Valley before falling short.

Virginia Tech at Miami, Oct. 5The Hurricanes have won four of the last five meetings in the series.

Virginia at Miami, Oct. 12The Hurricanes are slight favorites to win the Coastal Division largely because they host their two closest competitors in back-to-back weeks.

Virginia Tech at Virginia, Nov. 29UVA was actually favored on the road against the rival Hokies last season but lost yet again in overtime to lose its 15th straight Commonwealth Cup.




SCHEDULE STRENGTH

2019 SCHEDULE




2019 ATLANTIC COAST CONFERENCE ATLANTIC DIVISION

CLEMSONTIGERSLocation: Clemson, SC Stadium: Frank Howard Field at Clemson Memorial Stadium Head Coach: Dabo Swinney - 12th season2018 Record: 15-0Returning Starters: 12 - Offense: 8 QB - Defense: 4Offensive Coordinator: Tony Elliott / Jeff ScottDefensive Coordinator: Brent Venables

71.5

3.25 / 0.75

42.6 (#57 OF 130)

8/29/19 GEORGIA TECH CLEMSON is 14-12 SU & 17-8 ATS vs. GEORGIA TECH since 19949/7/19 TEXAS A&M UNDERDOGS are 2-1 SU & 3-0 ATS in L3 games of TAM-CLM series9/14/19 at Syracuse UNDER the total is 6-1 in L7 games of SYR-CLM series9/21/19 CHARLOTTE9/28/19 at North Carolina HOME TEAMS are 5-0 SU & ATS in L5 games of CLM-UNC series10/12/19 FLORIDA ST OVER the total is 14-7 in CLM-FSU series since 199210/19/19 at Louisville HOME TEAMS are 3-2 SU & 4-1 ATS in L5 games of CLM-LOU series10/26/19 BOSTON COLLEGE ROAD TEAMS are 5-3 SU & 6-1 ATS in L8 games of BC-CLM series11/2/19 WOFFORD11/9/19 at NC State ROAD TEAMS are 10-13 SU but 15-7 ATS in NCS-CLM series since 199611/16/19 WAKE FOREST ROAD TEAMS are 6-4 SU & 7-3 ATS in WF-CLM series since 200911/30/19 at South Carolina SOUTH CAROLINA is 5-1 ATS in its L6 games hosting CLEMSON

9/1/18 FURMAN 48-7 W -51 L 59.5 U9/8/18 at Texas A&M 28-26 W -11.5 L 49 O9/15/18 GA SOUTHERN 38-7 W -32 L 49.5 U9/22/18 at Georgia Tech 49-21 W -15.5 W 55.5 O9/29/18 SYRACUSE 27-23 W -24.5 L 65 U10/6/18 at Wake Forest 63-3 W -20.5 W 61 O10/20/18 NC STATE 41-7 W -18.5 W 57 U10/27/18 at Florida St 59-10 W -18 W 49.5 O11/3/18 LOUISVILLE 77-16 W -39 W 61.5 O11/10/18 at Boston College 27-7 W -17.5 W 52 U11/17/18 DUKE 35-6 W -29.5 L 60.5 U11/24/18 SOUTH CAROLINA 56-35 W -25.5 L 59 O12/1/18 vs. Pittsburgh 42-10 W -27.5 W 53.5 U12/29/18 vs. Notre Dame 30-3 W -10.5 W 58 U1/7/19 vs. Alabama 44-16 W 5 W 57.5 O

The Tigers could absolutely run the table and are -500 to make the CFP. The schedule sets up relatively easy and they avoid facing the top three teams in the Coastal Division (Miami, Virginia Tech and Virginia). They also have two of their only five away games (seven home games) against two teams in Louisville and North Carolina that are rebuilding with new coaches. Nonetheless, there are a couple tricky spots on the schedule very early on against two teams (Texas A&M and at Syracuse) that put them on the brink of defeat last season. They also close with their Palmetto State rival South Carolina, who they’ve owned in recent years, but also gave up 600 yards of offense to last season. Clemson is loaded with talent to replace their entire defensive line that was drafted into the NFL but it’s still a brand new group

that may need some time to gel together. As dominant as the Tigers were after the close call with Syracuse, they still did have close calls and having a total of 11.5 means they have to go undefeated to win the bet, which leaves literally zero margin for error.

UNDER 11.5POINTSBET



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CLEMSONTIGERS

Points Per Game 44 4Yards Per Point 12 13Plays Per Game 73 57Time of Possession 28:59 863rd Down Conv. % 46.3% 15Total Yards Per Game 526.9 3Yards Per Play 7.2 3Rush Attempts Per Game 38.1 68Rush Yards Per Game 248.1 10Yards Per Rush Attempt 6.5 2Pass Attempts Per Game 33.8 49Completion % 64.5% 21Passing Yards Per Game 278.8 21Yards Per Pass Attempt 8.3 21Turnovers 1.2 32



2018 77.5 45.7 4.81 -34.4 7-QB 51.1 8.42 11.88 8 5.3 3.62 45.872017 67 41.1 3.62 -22.5 5-QB 45.3 7.25 12.05 7 4.1 3.63 56.952016 70 37.9 3.36 -29.5 8 49.5 7.38 11.87 4 11.6 4.02 23.582015 63.5 34.7 3.43 -24.2 7- OC 48.2 7.51 12.35 3 13.5 4.08 19.06

• CLEMSON is 12-2 ATS (L14G) - Before playing BOSTON COLLEGE

• CLEMSON is 1-6 ATS (L7G) at HOME - After playing BOSTON COLLEGE

• CLEMSON is 13-3 UNDER (L5Y) at HOME - [vs OPP] After SU win





SCHEDULE STRENGTH

2019 SCHEDULE




FLORIDA STSEMINOLESLocation: Tallahassee, FL Stadium: Bobby Bowden Field at Doak S. Campbell Stadium Head Coach: Willie Taggart - 2nd season2018 Record: 5-7Returning Starters: 16 - Offense: 8 QB - Defense: 8Offensive Coordinator: Kendal Briles *Defensive Coordinator: Harlon Barnett

51.5

3 / -0.5

43.56 (#50 OF 130)

8/31/19 vs. Boise St9/7/19 LA MONROE9/14/19 at Virginia UNDER the total is 9-0 in L9 games of VIR-FSU series9/21/19 LOUISVILLE OVER the total is 5-0 in L5 games of LOU-FSU series9/28/19 NC STATE NC STATE is 9-13 SU but 17-4 ATS vs. FLORIDA ST since 199710/12/19 at Clemson OVER the total is 14-7 in CLM-FSU series since 199210/19/19 at Wake Forest UNDER the total is 5-0 in L5 games of FSU-WF series10/26/19 SYRACUSE HOME TEAMS are 6-2 SU & ATS in L8 games of SYR-FSU series11/2/19 MIAMI FL UNDERDOGS are 16-4 ATS in MIA-FSU series since 199911/9/19 at Boston College HOME TEAMS are 4-0 SU & ATS in L4 games of BC-FSU series11/16/19 ALABAMA ST11/30/19 at Florida FAVORITES are 19-2 SU & 17-4 ATS in FSU-FLA series since 1998

9/3/18 VIRGINIA TECH 3-24 L -7.5 L 54.5 U9/8/18 SAMFORD 36-26 W -31 L 57 O9/15/18 at Syracuse 7-30 L -3.5 L 70 U9/22/18 N ILLINOIS 37-19 W -10 W 46 O9/29/18 at Louisville 28-24 W -5 L 49 O10/6/18 at Miami Fl 27-28 L 14.5 W 48.5 O10/20/18 WAKE FOREST 38-17 W -10.5 W 59 U10/27/18 CLEMSON 10-59 L 18 L 49.5 O11/3/18 at NC State 28-47 L 9.5 L 51.5 O11/10/18 at Notre Dame 13-42 L 17 L 51.5 O11/17/18 BOSTON COLLEGE 22-21 W 3 W 49.5 U11/24/18 FLORIDA 14-41 L 8 L 52 O

The Seminoles bring in their lowest rated recruiting class (19th per 24/7 Sports) since 2007. That’s not necessarily the best sign going forward but the ‘Noles had their worst season last year since Bobby Bowden’s final year in 2009. Nevertheless, there is still a lot of high-end talent on this roster. Willie Taggart was very disappointing in his sole year at Oregon (2017) and was the same last season in Tallahassee. However, he brings in a reinforcement in new OC Kendal Briles. Briles was in the same role in Houston last year and improved the Cougars offense by almost 16 ppg and 85 ypg in just one season. The year before, Briles was at Florida Atlantic as OC and improved its ppg from 26 to 40 and its ypg to 498 from 398. Briles will also have two veteran starting QBs to work with in sophomore James

Blackman and Wisconsin graduate transfer Alex Hornibrook. DC Harlon Barnett has eight starters back on defense and he was on the Michigan State staff under Mark D’Antonio and Pat Narduzzi, so you know he can coach that side of the ball. Last season ended FSU’s 36-year bowl streak. They should be able to at least steady the ship this season.

OVER 7POINTSBET




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FLORIDA STSEMINOLES


Points Per Game 32 87Yards Per Point 12.7 1063rd Down Conv. % 37.2% 44Total Yards Per Game 406.5 70Yards Per Play 5 31Rush Yards Per Game 156.5 53Yards Per Rush Attempt 3.6 20Completion % 52.9% 7Passing Yards Per Game 249.9 92Yards Per Pass Attempt 7 53Sacks 2.5 36Turnovers 0.9 123


2018 Yes 42.5 9.7 1.76 -5 8-QB, OC 31 6.21 14.15 4-DC 21.3 4.45 16.592017 57 22.3 2.72 -13.2 6 34.8 6.78 11.91 9 12.5 4.06 22.992016 62 28.4 3.07 -21.5 11-QB 44.2 7.75 12.82 6 15.8 4.69 19.442015 59.5 29.9 3.33 -14.6 4-QB 40.2 7.52 12.05 7 10.3 4.19 28.42

• FLORIDA ST is 7-0-1 ATS (L8G) at NEUT - as Non-ranked team

• FLORIDA ST is 2-12-1 ATS (L15G) - VS NC STATE

• FLORIDA ST is 9-0 UNDER (L9G) - VS VIRGINIA





SCHEDULE STRENGTH

2019 SCHEDULE




NORTH CAROLINA STWOLFPACKLocation: Raleigh, NC Stadium: Wayne Day Family Field at Carter–Finley Stadium Head Coach: Dave Doeren - 7th season2018 Record: 9-4Returning Starters: 11 - Offense: 4 - Defense: 7Offensive Coordinator: Des Kitchings / George McDonald *Defensive Coordinator: Tony Gibson / Dave Huxtable

47

3 / 0.5

40.6 (#65 OF 130)

8/31/19 EAST CAROLINA HOME TEAMS are 5-1 SU & ATS in L6 games of ECU-NCS series9/7/19 W CAROLINA9/14/19 at West Virginia9/21/19 BALL ST9/28/19 at Florida St NC STATE is 9-13 SU but 17-4 ATS vs. FLORIDA ST since 199710/10/19 SYRACUSE UNDERDOGS are 5-3 SU & 7-1 ATS in L8 games of NCS-SYR series10/19/19 at Boston College ROAD TEAMS are 4-2 SU & 5-0 ATS in L6 games of NCS-BC series11/2/19 at Wake Forest WAKE FOREST is 9-2 SU & 10-1 ATS in its L11 games hosting NC STATE11/9/19 CLEMSON ROAD TEAMS are 10-13 SU but 15-7 ATS in NCS-CLM series since 199611/16/19 LOUISVILLE ROAD TEAMS are 4-3 SU & 5-2 ATS in L7 games of NCS-LOU series11/21/19 at Georgia Tech ROAD TEAMS are 7-0 SU & 6-0 ATS in L7 games of NCS-GAT series11/30/19 NORTH CAROLINA UNDERDOGS are 13-8 SU & 16-5 ATS in UNC-NCS series since 1998

9/1/18 JAMES MADISON 24-13 W -14 L 56.5 U9/8/18 GEORGIA ST 41-7 W -25 W 56 U9/22/18 at Marshall 37-20 W -6 W 56 O9/29/18 VIRGINIA 35-21 W -6.5 W 53 O10/6/18 BOSTON COLLEGE 28-23 W -6 L 60 U10/20/18 at Clemson 7-41 L 18.5 L 57 U10/27/18 at Syracuse 41-51 L -2 L 64.5 O11/3/18 FLORIDA ST 47-28 W -9.5 W 51.5 O11/8/18 WAKE FOREST 23-27 L -18.5 L 66.5 U11/17/18 at Louisville 52-10 W -15 W 66.5 U11/24/18 at North Carolina 34-28 W -7 L 63 U12/1/18 EAST CAROLINA 58-3 W -25.5 W 59.5 O12/31/18 vs. Texas A&M 13-52 L 7.5 L 58 O

The Wolfpack have to replace Ryan Finley, a three-year starter at QB and 4th round draft pick (Bengals). Furthermore, they also must replace an 1,100 yard rusher and two 1,000+ yard receivers. The replacement theme continues with the coaching staff as it adds two new OCs, a new co-DC and a new ST coordinator. This is a fairly young team that will have to face Clemson and has a relatively difficult road schedule having to go to West Virginia, Florida State, Boston College and Wake Forest. The Wolfpack are also only 6-12 on the road vs. divisional foes during Dave Doeren’s tenure. They face three straight mid season games vs. opponents off bye weeks (Syracuse, at Boston College and at Wake Forest). After that sequence of games, in comes Clemson on Nov. 9.

UNDER 7.5FANDUEL




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NORTH CAROLINA STWOLFPACK


Points Per Game 25.9 50Yards Per Point 15.2 423rd Down Conv. % 31.7% 11Total Yards Per Game 394.9 62Yards Per Play 5.8 79Rush Yards Per Game 128.9 23Yards Per Rush Attempt 4.2 59Completion % 57.3% 47Passing Yards Per Game 266 115Yards Per Pass Attempt 7.5 79Sacks 2.8 25Turnovers 1.5 67


2018 49.5 24.5 1.77 -6.4 6-QB 40.4 6.94 13.02 3 15.9 5.17 21.62017 54.5 24.3 2.6 -14.5 9 39.9 7.23 13.72 8 15.7 4.63 20.392016 50.5 18 2.09 -9.1 5-QB, OC 33.5 6.7 14.56 8 15.5 4.61 20.122015 48.5 22 1.57 -10.3 7 40.6 6.36 11.39 8 18.7 4.79 16.06

• NC STATE is 12-2-1 ATS (L15G) - VS FLORIDA ST

• NC STATE is 1-8 ATS (L9G) on ROAD - VS WAKE FOREST

• NC STATE is 10-0 UNDER (L10G) - Less than 6 days rest





SCHEDULE STRENGTH

2019 SCHEDULE




SYRACUSEORANGELocation: Syracuse, NY Stadium: Carrier Dome Head Coach: Dino Babers - 4th season2018 Record: 10-3Returning Starters: 13 - Offense: 6 - Defense: 7Offensive Coordinator: Mike LynchDefensive Coordinator: Brian Ward

47.5

3.5 / -0.5

42.65 (#56 OF 130)

8/31/19 at Liberty9/7/19 at Maryland ROAD TEAMS are 3-0 SU & ATS in L3 games of MD-SYR series9/14/19 CLEMSON UNDER the total is 6-1 in L7 games of SYR-CLM series9/21/19 W MICHIGAN9/28/19 HOLY CROSS10/10/19 at NC State UNDERDOGS are 5-3 SU & 7-1 ATS in L8 games of NCS-SYR series10/18/19 PITTSBURGH HOME TEAMS are 16-11 SU & 17-9 ATS in SYR-PIT series since 199210/26/19 at Florida St HOME TEAMS are 6-2 SU & ATS in L8 games of SYR-FSU series11/2/19 BOSTON COLLEGE UNDERDOGS are 7-3 SU & ATS in SYR-BC series since 200211/16/19 at Duke11/23/19 at Louisville FAVORITES are 6-0 SU & ATS in L6 games of LOU-SYR series11/30/19 WAKE FOREST FAVORITES are 7-0 SU & ATS in L7 games of SYR-WF series

8/31/18 at W Michigan 55-42 W -4.5 W 65 O9/8/18 WAGNER 62-10 W -45 W 68.5 O9/15/18 FLORIDA ST 30-7 W 3.5 W 70 U9/22/18 CONNECTICUT 51-21 W -31 L 74.5 U9/29/18 at Clemson 23-27 L 24.5 W 65 U10/6/18 at Pittsburgh 37-44 L -3 L 57.5 O10/20/18 NORTH CAROLINA 40-37 W -9.5 L 66 O10/27/18 NC STATE 51-41 W 2 W 64.5 O11/3/18 at Wake Forest 41-24 W -6.5 W 80 U11/9/18 LOUISVILLE 54-23 W -20.5 W 69 O11/17/18 vs. Notre Dame 3-36 L 10 L 64.5 U11/24/18 at Boston College 42-21 W 3.5 W 61 O12/28/18 vs. West Virginia 34-18 W -3 W 66.5 U

The Orange made a huge leap to win 10 games after going 4-8 in consecutive seasons. Eric Dungey, a four-year starter at QB, has graduated and while Tommy DeVito is probably a better fit for the uptempo Dino Babers offense, he does lack experience. Syracuse was +13 in turnover margin last year but that was also largely due to having an experienced starter in the shotgun. They likely won’t be as fortunate this year with a younger, inexperienced starter. They could start out 4-1 but then have to go to NC State and host Pitt with both teams off bye weeks before going to Florida State, who will be looking for revenge. The majority of the market has the Cuse at 7 or 7.5 juiced to the over.

UNDER 8CIRCA




TOP TRENDS FOR 2019







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SYRACUSEORANGE




2018 54.5 23.8 0.95 -10 8-QB 43.6 6.28 11.87 6 19.8 5.32 19.652017 40.5 13.9 1.11 -5.9 9 37.3 6.52 14.98 10 23.4 5.42 16.062016 Yes 36.5 4.9 0.58 2.5 8- OC 34.3 6.53 15.38 8-DC 29.4 5.94 14.652015 36 11.1 0.42 7.6 7 37.4 5.91 9.89 3 26.3 5.49 14.7

• SYRACUSE is 14-3 ATS (L17G) - VS MAC

• SYRACUSE is 2-5 ATS (L7G) on ROAD - VS BIG 10

• SYRACUSE is 13-2 UNDER (L15G) - [vs OPP] After SU win





SCHEDULE STRENGTH

2019 SCHEDULE




BOSTON COLLEGEEAGLESLocation: Chestnut Hill, MA Stadium: Alumni Stadium Head Coach: Steve Addazio - 7th season2018 Record: 7-5Returning Starters: 9 - Offense: 6 QB - Defense: 3Offensive Coordinator: Mike Bajakian *Defensive Coordinator: Bill Sheridan *

43.5

3 / 0.5

44.19 (#45 OF 130)

8/31/19 VIRGINIA TECH BOSTON COLLEGE is 7-14 SU but 14-7 ATS vs. VIRGINIA TECH since 19999/7/19 RICHMOND9/13/19 KANSAS9/21/19 at Rutgers FAVORITES are 10-0 SU & 8-2 ATS in BC-RUT series since 19959/28/19 WAKE FOREST ROAD TEAMS are 5-0 SU & ATS in L5 games of BC-WF series10/5/19 at Louisville OVER the total is 5-1 in L6 games of LOU-BC series10/19/19 NC STATE ROAD TEAMS are 4-2 SU & 5-0 ATS in L6 games of NCS-BC series10/26/19 at Clemson ROAD TEAMS are 5-3 SU & 6-1 ATS in L8 games of BC-CLM series11/2/19 at Syracuse UNDERDOGS are 7-3 SU & ATS in SYR-BC series since 200211/9/19 FLORIDA ST HOME TEAMS are 4-0 SU & ATS in L4 games of BC-FSU series11/23/19 at Notre Dame UNDERDOGS are 5-15 SU but 14-6 ATS in BC-ND series since 199311/30/19 at Pittsburgh UNDER the total is 6-2 in L8 games of PIT-BC series

9/1/18 MASSACHUSETTS 55-21 W -20.5 W 62 O9/8/18 HOLY CROSS 62-14 W -45 W 57 O9/13/18 at Wake Forest 41-34 W -6 W 59 O9/22/18 at Purdue 13-30 L -6 L 62.5 U9/29/18 TEMPLE 45-35 W -13.5 L 54.5 O10/6/18 at NC State 23-28 L 6 W 60 U10/13/18 LOUISVILLE 38-20 W -10.5 W 56.5 O10/26/18 MIAMI FL 27-14 W 3.5 W 49.5 U11/3/18 at Virginia Tech 31-21 W -2 W 57 U11/10/18 CLEMSON 7-27 L 17.5 L 52 U11/17/18 at Florida St 21-22 L -3 L 49.5 U11/24/18 SYRACUSE 21-42 L -3.5 L 61 O

The Eagles have new coordinators on both sides of the ball. While BC returns starting QB Anthony Brown and RB AJ Dillon, they lose three of their top four receivers and three OL starters. The defense must also replace seven starters, including three on the DL. Football is still won up front and the Eagles don’t have a great deal of experience on either line. While they have an easy nonconference schedule (FCS Richmond, Kansas and at Rutgers), the latter half of the schedule is brutal. In the final five weeks of the season BC travels to Clemson and then to Syracuse. A home game with Florida State is sandwiched in between four road games as BC closes out at Notre Dame and at Pittsburgh. They can’t drop either home game to equal division teams Wake Forest or NC State. A difficult opener, albeit at home,

also is on the horizon against a potentially revitalized Virginia Tech team that should be improved.

UNDER 6WESTGATE




TOP TRENDS FOR 2019







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BOSTON COLLEGEEAGLES

Points Per Game 29.3 50Yards Per Point 13.2 33Plays Per Game 76.7 24Time of Possession 27:53 1063rd Down Conv. % 33.7% 109Total Yards Per Game 385.6 73Yards Per Play 5 99Rush Attempts Per Game 46 9Rush Yards Per Game 173.1 54Yards Per Rush Attempt 3.8 99Pass Attempts Per Game 28.8 88Completion % 56.5% 93Passing Yards Per Game 212.5 84Yards Per Pass Attempt 7.4 66Turnovers 1.6 87



2018 48 20.6 1.76 -10.3 10-QB 37.5 6.27 12.48 6 16.9 4.5 20.752017 49.5 22.4 1.59 -5.2 8-QB 35.1 6.22 13.52 7 12.6 4.63 26.622016 38.5 6.4 0.39 0.1 8- OC 26 4.98 12.57 7-DC 19.6 4.59 14.282015 40.5 13.7 1.26 -1.2 4-QB, OC 23.8 4.93 12.95 6 10.1 3.68 22.71

• BOSTON COLLEGE is 11-1 ATS (L12G) - After playing NC STATE

• BOSTON COLLEGE is 0-8 ATS (L8G) on ROAD - [vs OPP] After a close SU loss 3 points or less

• BOSTON COLLEGE is 19-4 UNDER (L23G) on ROAD - More than 6 days rest





SCHEDULE STRENGTH

2019 SCHEDULE




WAKE FORESTDEMON DEACONSLocation: Winston-Salem, NC Stadium: BB&T Field Head Coach: Dave Clawson - 6th season2018 Record: 7-6Returning Starters: 12 - Offense: 7 QB - Defense: 5Offensive Coordinator: Warren RuggieroDefensive Coordinator: Lyle Hemphill

43

3 / 0.5

43.06 (#55 OF 130)

8/30/19 UTAH ST9/7/19 at Rice9/12/19 NORTH CAROLINA HOME TEAMS are 5-1 SU & 6-0 ATS in L6 games of WF-UNC series9/21/19 ELON9/28/19 at Boston College ROAD TEAMS are 5-0 SU & ATS in L5 games of BC-WF series10/12/19 LOUISVILLE WAKE FOREST is 2-3 SU but 5-0 ATS in its L5 games vs. LOUISVILLE10/19/19 FLORIDA ST UNDER the total is 5-0 in L5 games of FSU-WF series11/2/19 NC STATE WAKE FOREST is 9-2 SU & 10-1 ATS in its L11 games hosting NC STATE11/9/19 at Virginia Tech FAVORITES are 4-1 SU & ATS in L5 games of VAT-WF series11/16/19 at Clemson ROAD TEAMS are 6-4 SU & 7-3 ATS in WF-CLM series since 200911/23/19 DUKE ROAD TEAMS are 5-0 SU & ATS in L5 games of WF-DUK series11/30/19 at Syracuse FAVORITES are 7-0 SU & ATS in L7 games of SYR-WF series

8/30/18 at Tulane 23-17 W -7.5 L 55.5 U9/8/18 TOWSON 51-20 W -33.5 L 57.5 O9/13/18 BOSTON COLLEGE 34-41 L 6 L 59 O9/22/18 NOTRE DAME 27-56 L 6 L 59.5 O9/29/18 RICE 56-24 W -28 W 66 O10/6/18 CLEMSON 3-63 L 20.5 L 61 O10/20/18 at Florida St 17-38 L 10.5 L 59 U10/27/18 at Louisville 56-35 W 3 W 67.5 O11/3/18 SYRACUSE 24-41 L 6.5 L 80 U11/8/18 at NC State 27-23 W 18.5 W 66.5 U11/17/18 PITTSBURGH 13-34 L 4.5 L 62.5 U11/24/18 at Duke 59-7 W 8.5 W 62 O12/22/18 vs. Memphis 37-34 W 2.5 W 71 T

The Demon Deacons apparently felt good enough about their returning QBs that Kendall Hinton, the man that was supposed to start the opener last season, was moved to wide receiver to replace All-American Greg Dortch in the slot. Wake Forest showed some toughness last year through some adversity. They finished with Jamie Newman, who was the third team QB to start the season, starting the last four games and going 3-1. Dave Clawson fired his DC Jay Sawyer immediately after being torched for 566 yards in Ian Book’s first start as Notre Dame QB. Two weeks later, Clemson lowered the boom on them to a tune of 63-3. The team had some bad moments but also responded when the chips were down. They won at a ranked NC State with a QB making his first start. After losing to a red-hot Pitt team that won

the Coastal, the Deacs had to go win at Duke to get bowl eligible and did so by throttling the Blue Devils 59-7. In the Birmingham Bowl, they got down 28-10 to Memphis before coming back to win.

OVER 6POINTSBET




TOP TRENDS FOR 2019







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WAKE FORESTDEMON DEACONS

Points Per Game 31.3 34Yards Per Point 14 57Plays Per Game 85 1Time of Possession 28:15 1013rd Down Conv. % 40.2% 53Total Yards Per Game 440.1 29Yards Per Play 5.2 90Rush Attempts Per Game 47.6 6Rush Yards Per Game 204.5 30Yards Per Rush Attempt 4.3 65Pass Attempts Per Game 34.6 41Completion % 55.4% 97Passing Yards Per Game 235.6 59Yards Per Pass Attempt 6.8 94Turnovers 1.4 52



2018 46 13.3 0.96 -3.7 8 38.9 6.26 13.12 6 25.6 5.3 16.112017 52 24.1 2.77 -9 9 42.1 7.47 12.81 5-DC 18 4.7 21.262016 41 10.4 0.35 -0.7 9 26.5 5.13 13.11 7 16.2 4.78 20.442015 35.5 9 0.79 4.3 7 26.2 5.64 14.98 7 17.1 4.86 18.51

• WAKE FOREST is 8-1 ATS (L9G) at HOME - VS NC STATE

• WAKE FOREST is 3-12 ATS (L15G) on ROAD - [vs OPP] After a blowout SU loss 20 points or more

• WAKE FOREST is 6-0-1 UNDER (L7G) at HOME - [vs OPP] After a blowout SU loss 20 points or more





SCHEDULE STRENGTH

2019 SCHEDULE




LOUISVILLECARDINALSLocation: Louisville, KY Stadium: Cardinal Stadium Head Coach: Scott Satterfield - 1st season2018 Record: 2-10Returning Starters: 16 - Offense: 6 QB - Defense: 10Offensive Coordinator: Dwayne Ledford *Defensive Coordinator: Bryan Brown / Cort Dennison *

38

3.25 / -0.5

46.75 (#22 OF 130)

9/2/19 NOTRE DAME9/7/19 E KENTUCKY9/14/19 at W Kentucky9/21/19 at Florida St OVER the total is 5-0 in L5 games of LOU-FSU series10/5/19 BOSTON COLLEGE OVER the total is 5-1 in L6 games of LOU-BC series10/12/19 at Wake Forest WAKE FOREST is 2-3 SU but 5-0 ATS in its L5 games vs. LOUISVILLE10/19/19 CLEMSON HOME TEAMS are 3-2 SU & 4-1 ATS in L5 games of CLM-LOU series10/26/19 VIRGINIA HOME TEAMS are 3-1 SU & 4-0 ATS in L4 games of LOU-VIR series11/9/19 at Miami Fl LOUISVILLE is 3-1 SU & 4-0 ATS in its L4 games vs. MIAMI FL11/16/19 at NC State ROAD TEAMS are 4-3 SU & 5-2 ATS in L7 games of NCS-LOU series11/23/19 SYRACUSE FAVORITES are 6-0 SU & ATS in L6 games of LOU-SYR series11/30/19 at Kentucky ROAD TEAMS are 6-1 SU & 7-0 ATS in L7 games of KEN-LOU series

9/1/18 vs. Alabama 14-51 L 22.5 L 60 O9/8/18 INDIANA ST 31-7 W -42 L 68.5 U9/15/18 W KENTUCKY 20-17 W -23.5 L 54 U9/22/18 at Virginia 3-27 L 4.5 L 53.5 U9/29/18 FLORIDA ST 24-28 L 5 W 49 O10/5/18 GEORGIA TECH 31-66 L 5.5 L 56.5 O10/13/18 at Boston College 20-38 L 10.5 L 56.5 O10/27/18 WAKE FOREST 35-56 L -3 L 67.5 O11/3/18 at Clemson 16-77 L 39 L 61.5 O11/9/18 at Syracuse 23-54 L 20.5 L 69 O11/17/18 NC STATE 10-52 L 15 L 66.5 U11/24/18 KENTUCKY 10-56 L 16 L 53 O

Welcome to Louisville, Scott Satterfield. You open with Notre Dame out of the box. No pressure, right? Then the Cardinals get Eastern and Western Kentucky, which should be wins. However, the schedule really kicks in with a trip to Florida State, the only remaining team on the schedule that didn’t make a bowl game last season. The final eight opponents on the docket all made bowl appearances. Eventually the Cardinals should return to respectability but it won’t be this year.

UNDER 3.5CAESARS




TOP TRENDS FOR 2019







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LOUISVILLECARDINALS




2018 23.5 -4.9 0.63 6 7 28.9 6.47 14.86 4-DC 33.8 5.84 12.122017 55 24.8 3.64 -13.8 4 46.5 8.65 13.76 7-DC 21.8 5.01 15.792016 56 34.7 4.28 -15.5 9- OC 52.3 8.43 12.07 8 17.6 4.14 16.142015 49.5 20.4 2.7 -9.5 5 37.7 6.88 12.6 4 17.3 4.18 16.31

• LOUISVILLE is 13-2 ATS (L15G) on ROAD - Nonconference VS POWER 5

• LOUISVILLE is 1-11 ATS (L2Y) - as Non-ranked team

• LOUISVILLE is 7-0 OVER (L7G) - [vs OPP] AP top 5





SCHEDULE STRENGTH

2019 SCHEDULE




MIAMI FLHURRICANESLocation: Miami Gardens, FL Stadium: Hard Rock Stadium Head Coach: Manny Diaz - 1st season2018 Record: 7-6Returning Starters: 12 - Offense: 6 QB - Defense: 6Offensive Coordinator: Dan Enos *Defensive Coordinator: Blake Baker / Ephraim Banda *

52

3.25 / -0.25

40.9 (#64 OF 130)

8/24/19 vs. Florida MIAMI FL is 5-1 SU & ATS in its L6 games vs. FLORIDA9/7/19 at North Carolina HOME TEAMS are 6-5 SU & 9-2 ATS in MIA-UNC series since 20089/14/19 BETHUNE-COOKMAN UNDER the total is 3-0 in L3 games of B/C-MIA series at MIAMI FL9/21/19 C MICHIGAN10/5/19 VIRGINIA TECH FAVORITES are 5-0 SU & ATS in L5 games of MIA-VAT series10/11/19 VIRGINIA UNDERDOGS are 7-8 SU but 12-3 ATS in VIR-MIA series since 199610/19/19 GEORGIA TECH MIAMI FL is 8-2 SU & 7-3 ATS vs. GEORGIA TECH since 200910/26/19 at Pittsburgh MIAMI FL is 12-3 SU & 10-5 ATS vs. PITTSBURGH since 199611/2/19 at Florida St UNDERDOGS are 16-4 ATS in MIA-FSU series since 199911/9/19 LOUISVILLE LOUISVILLE is 3-1 SU & 4-0 ATS in its L4 games vs. MIAMI FL11/23/19 at FLA International ROAD TEAMS are 0-3 SU but 3-0 ATS in L3 games of FIU-MIA series11/30/19 at Duke MIAMI FL is 6-2 SU & ATS in its L8 games vs. DUKE

9/2/18 vs. LSU 17-33 L -3 L 47.5 O9/8/18 SAVANNAH ST 77-0 W -61 W 69 O9/15/18 at Toledo 49-24 W -11.5 W 58.5 O9/22/18 FLA INTERNATIONAL 31-17 W -26 L 58.5 U9/27/18 NORTH CAROLINA 47-10 W -18 W 55.5 O10/6/18 FLORIDA ST 28-27 W -14.5 L 48.5 O10/13/18 at Virginia 13-16 L -7 L 47 U10/26/18 at Boston College 14-27 L -3.5 L 49.5 U11/3/18 DUKE 12-20 L -9 L 50.5 U11/10/18 at Georgia Tech 21-27 L -1 L 51 U11/17/18 at Virginia Tech 38-14 W -6.5 W 52.5 U11/24/18 PITTSBURGH 24-3 W -5 W 45.5 U12/27/18 vs. Wisconsin 3-35 L -3 L 44 U

More often than not, it’s not recommended to go Over on season wins with a first-year and especially a first-time head coach but Manny Diaz has been a successful DC the last three years at Miami and knows his personnel on that side of the ball. The defense should still be the strength of the team and the offense should be improved as new OC Dan Enos (QB coach at Alabama last year) brings in a “spreadcoast” offense that should involve more creativity than the previous years’ offenses during Mark Richt’s tenure. The U has to pick a QB though and stick with him whether its sophomore N’Kosi Perry, Ohio State transfer Tate Martell or redshirt freshman Jarren Williams. Miami does get its main two Coastal rivals (Virginia Tech and Virginia) at home in back to back weeks and only leaves the state of Florida

in three of twelve games so the schedule is favorable.

OVER 8.5CIRCA


2019 ATLANTIC COAST CONFERENCE COASTAL DIVISION


TOP TRENDS FOR 2019







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MIAMI FLHURRICANES

Points Per Game 24.8 90Yards Per Point 14 56Plays Per Game 66 116Time of Possession 29:18 773rd Down Conv. % 39.4% 59Total Yards Per Game 347.5 110Yards Per Play 5.3 84Rush Attempts Per Game 36.8 83Rush Yards Per Game 187.5 44Yards Per Rush Attempt 5.1 23Pass Attempts Per Game 27.1 102Completion % 50.2% 121Passing Yards Per Game 160 116Yards Per Pass Attempt 5.9 119Turnovers 2 113

Points Per Game 21.1 21Yards Per Point 14 713rd Down Conv. % 26.5% 1Total Yards Per Game 295.3 5Yards Per Play 4.3 3Rush Yards Per Game 152.4 46Yards Per Rush Attempt 3.8 37Completion % 53.4% 11Passing Yards Per Game 142.9 1Yards Per Pass Attempt 5.6 4Sacks 3 13Turnovers 1.8 30


2018 53.5 24.3 2.57 -12.7 7-QB 36.7 6.33 11.43 7 12.4 3.76 19.592017 54.5 26 3.31 -16.7 7-QB 38.4 7.39 12.61 8 12.4 4.08 25.082016 Yes 58.5 28.2 3.06 -17 9- OC 40.5 7.39 12.05 6-DC 12.3 4.33 25.712015 47.5 17 1.93 -4 5 36.4 7.01 13.02 6 19.5 5.08 18.12

• MIAMI FL is 14-1 ATS (L15G) on ROAD - After a blowout SU win of 20 points or more

• MIAMI FL is 1-9 ATS (L10G) at HOME - VS lower ranked team

• MIAMI FL is 21-4 UNDER (L25G) - After a conference SU win





SCHEDULE STRENGTH

2019 SCHEDULE




VIRGINIA TECHHOKIESLocation: Blacksburg, VA Stadium: Lane Stadium/Worsham Field Head Coach: Justin Fuente - 4th season2018 Record: 6-7Returning Starters: 16 - Offense: 6 QB - Defense: 10Offensive Coordinator: Brad CornelsenDefensive Coordinator: Bud Foster

49.5

4 / 0.25

39.88 (#67 OF 130)

8/31/19 at Boston College BOSTON COLLEGE is 7-14 SU but 14-7 ATS vs. VIRGINIA TECH since 19999/7/19 OLD DOMINION9/14/19 FURMAN9/27/19 DUKE UNDERDOGS are 4-2 SU & 5-1 ATS in L6 games of DUK-VAT series10/5/19 at Miami Fl FAVORITES are 5-0 SU & ATS in L5 games of MIA-VAT series10/12/19 RHODE ISLAND10/19/19 NORTH CAROLINA UNDER the total is 10-2 in VAT-UNC series since 200711/2/19 at Notre Dame11/9/19 WAKE FOREST FAVORITES are 4-1 SU & ATS in L5 games of VAT-WF series11/16/19 at Georgia Tech UNDERDOGS are 6-1 SU & 7-0 ATS in L7 games of GAT-VAT series11/23/19 PITTSBURGH PITTSBURGH is 3-2 SU & 5-0 ATS in its L5 games vs. VIRGINIA TECH11/29/19 at Virginia VIRGINIA TECH is 15-0 SU & 11-4 ATS vs. VIRGINIA since 2004

9/3/18 at Florida St 24-3 W 7.5 W 54.5 U9/8/18 WILLIAM & MARY 62-17 W -41.5 W 49.5 O9/22/18 at Old Dominion 35-49 L -28.5 L 52.5 O9/29/18 at Duke 31-14 W 7 W 52.5 U10/6/18 NOTRE DAME 23-45 L 6.5 L 53.5 O10/13/18 at North Carolina 22-19 W -6.5 L 57.5 U10/25/18 GEORGIA TECH 28-49 L -3 L 58 O11/3/18 BOSTON COLLEGE 21-31 L 2 L 57 U11/10/18 at Pittsburgh 22-52 L 4.5 L 53 O11/17/18 MIAMI FL 14-38 L 6.5 L 52.5 U11/23/18 VIRGINIA 34-31 W 4 W 49 O12/1/18 MARSHALL 41-20 W -3.5 W 52 O12/31/18 vs. Cincinnati 31-35 L 5 W 48.5 O

The Hokies should be a team that rebounds with 10 starters back on defense that should more resemble the quality groups that Bud Foster has fielded in the 23 years he has been the DC. The schedule gives them some breaks as well since they don’t have any back-to-back road trips. Should they be able to avenge last year’s loss to BC in the opener, a 4-0 start would be likely heading to Miami. This should be a hungry bunch coming off their first losing season since 1992.

OVER 8CIRCA




TOP TRENDS FOR 2019







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VIRGINIA TECHHOKIES

Points Per Game 27.2 72Yards Per Point 15.3 81Plays Per Game 75.4 34Time of Possession 30:14 543rd Down Conv. % 34.6% 105Total Yards Per Game 415 48Yards Per Play 5.5 69Rush Attempts Per Game 39.2 58Rush Yards Per Game 163.4 69Yards Per Rush Attempt 4.2 76Pass Attempts Per Game 33.8 47Completion % 57.6% 85Passing Yards Per Game 251.6 41Yards Per Pass Attempt 7.4 62Turnovers 1.2 36

Points Per Game 32.2 90Yards Per Point 14.1 693rd Down Conv. % 39.0% 59Total Yards Per Game 453.1 104Yards Per Play 6.4 116Rush Yards Per Game 225 112Yards Per Rush Attempt 5.7 122Completion % 59.6% 65Passing Yards Per Game 228.1 62Yards Per Pass Attempt 7.6 81Sacks 1.9 79Turnovers 1.4 81


2018 47.5 11.9 0.94 -4.8 7-QB 37.3 6.64 12.94 5 25.5 5.7 15.372017 53.5 28.9 1.92 -13.3 5-QB 35.9 6.19 13 7 7 4.27 38.392016 Yes 55.5 27.1 2.27 -14.5 8-QB, OC 41.5 6.68 12.5 7 14.4 4.41 20.912015 49 19 1.11 -7.2 8 36.8 5.9 11.46 8 17.8 4.8 17.63

• VIRGINIA TECH is 9-0 ATS (L9G) - [vs OPP] Less than 6 days rest

• VIRGINIA TECH is 1-9 ATS (L10G) - VS PITTSBURGH

• VIRGINIA TECH is 12-1 UNDER (L13G) at HOME - [vs OPP] After a blowout SU loss 20 points or more





SCHEDULE STRENGTH

2019 SCHEDULE




VIRGINIACAVALIERSLocation: Charlottesville, VA Stadium: Scott Stadium Head Coach: Bronco Mendenhall - 4th season2018 Record: 8-5Returning Starters: 14 - Offense: 6 QB - Defense: 8Offensive Coordinator: Robert AnaeDefensive Coordinator: Nick Howell / Kelly Poppinga

49

2.5 / -0.5

41.21 (#63 OF 130)

8/31/19 at Pittsburgh PITTSBURGH is 5-1 SU & ATS in its L6 games vs. VIRGINIA9/6/19 WILLIAM & MARY ROAD TEAMS are 0-3 SU but 3-0 ATS in L3 games of W&M-VIR series9/14/19 FLORIDA ST UNDER the total is 9-0 in L9 games of VIR-FSU series9/21/19 OLD DOMINION9/28/19 at Notre Dame10/11/19 at Miami Fl UNDERDOGS are 7-8 SU but 12-3 ATS in VIR-MIA series since 199610/19/19 DUKE UNDER the total is 11-4 in VIR-DUK series since 199510/26/19 at Louisville HOME TEAMS are 3-1 SU & 4-0 ATS in L4 games of LOU-VIR series11/2/19 at North Carolina UNDER the total is 15-5 in UNC-VIR series since 199511/9/19 GEORGIA TECH HOME TEAMS are 18-4 SU & 15-5 ATS in VIR-GAT series since 199711/23/19 LIBERTY11/29/19 VIRGINIA TECH VIRGINIA TECH is 15-0 SU & 11-4 ATS vs. VIRGINIA since 2004

9/1/18 RICHMOND 42-13 W -14.5 W 53.5 O9/8/18 at Indiana 16-20 L 5 W 49.5 U9/15/18 vs. Ohio U 45-31 W -4 W 55.5 O9/22/18 LOUISVILLE 27-3 W -4.5 W 53.5 U9/29/18 at NC State 21-35 L 6.5 L 53 O10/13/18 MIAMI FL 16-13 W 7 W 47 U10/20/18 at Duke 28-14 W 6.5 W 45.5 U10/27/18 NORTH CAROLINA 31-21 W -8.5 W 51 O11/2/18 PITTSBURGH 13-23 L -7 L 45 U11/10/18 LIBERTY 45-24 W -25 L 57.5 O11/17/18 at Georgia Tech 27-30 L 6 W 51.5 O11/23/18 at Virginia Tech 31-34 L -4 L 49 O12/29/18 vs. South Carolina 28-0 W 3.5 W 53.5 U

UVA has improved every year under Bronco Mendenhall and had its first winning year since 2011 capped off by a shutout win (28-0) over South Carolina in the Belk Bowl. The strength of the squad is still the defense that only allowed 20.1 ppg and 331 ypg and returns eight starters. The Cavaliers also went 1-3 in games decided by four points or less last season and those tend to even out the following season. Virginia has also scheduled smart with what should be easily winnable home games vs. William & Mary, Old Dominion and Liberty (at Notre Dame is the other nonconference game). They only play four out of 12 teams that had winning records the previous season.

OVER 7.5FANDUEL




TOP TRENDS FOR 2019







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VIRGINIACAVALIERS




2018 51 18.2 1.74 -9.3 5 33 6.59 12.94 8 14.8 4.84 20.662017 41 12.3 1.2 0.6 6 32.2 5.87 12.97 8 20 4.68 15.662016 Yes 33 4.6 0.15 -0.2 6- OC 30 5.68 13.76 6-DC 25.4 5.53 15.372015 42 11.6 1.21 -0.3 5-QB 34.1 6.56 13.43 5 22.5 5.35 15.71

• VIRGINIA is 6-0-1 ATS (L7G) at HOME - Revenging a loss vs - GEORGIA TECH

• VIRGINIA is 1-7 ATS (L8G) - After playing PITTSBURGH

• VIRGINIA is 7-0 UNDER (L7G) - Revenging a loss vs - FLORIDA ST





SCHEDULE STRENGTH

2019 SCHEDULE




PITTSBURGHPANTHERSLocation: Pittsburgh, PA Stadium: Heinz Field Head Coach: Pat Narduzzi - 5th season2018 Record: 7-7Returning Starters: 11 - Offense: 5 QB - Defense: 6Offensive Coordinator: Mark Whipple *Defensive Coordinator: Randy Bates

46

2.5 / 0

45.35 (#37 OF 130)

8/31/19 VIRGINIA PITTSBURGH is 5-1 SU & ATS in its L6 games vs. VIRGINIA9/7/19 OHIO U HOME TEAMS are 3-0 SU & ATS in L3 games of PIT-OHU series9/14/19 at Penn St9/21/19 UCF9/28/19 DELAWARE10/5/19 at Duke PITTSBURGH is 4-0 SU & ATS in its L4 games vs. DUKE10/18/19 at Syracuse HOME TEAMS are 16-11 SU & 17-9 ATS in SYR-PIT series since 199210/26/19 MIAMI FL MIAMI FL is 12-3 SU & 10-5 ATS vs. PITTSBURGH since 199611/2/19 at Georgia Tech UNDERDOGS are 5-1 ATS in L6 games of PIT-GAT series11/14/19 NORTH CAROLINA NORTH CAROLINA is 6-0 SU & 5-1 ATS in its L6 games vs. PITTSBURGH11/23/19 at Virginia Tech PITTSBURGH is 3-2 SU & 5-0 ATS in its L5 games vs. VIRGINIA TECH11/30/19 BOSTON COLLEGE UNDER the total is 6-2 in L8 games of PIT-BC series

9/1/18 ALBANY 33-7 W -27 L 43.5 U9/8/18 PENN ST 6-51 L 7 L 49.5 O9/15/18 GEORGIA TECH 24-19 W 3.5 W 54 U9/22/18 at North Carolina 35-38 L -3 L 48 O9/29/18 at UCF 14-45 L 13.5 L 65.5 U10/6/18 SYRACUSE 44-37 W 3 W 57.5 O10/13/18 at Notre Dame 14-19 L 21 W 55.5 U10/27/18 DUKE 54-45 W 3 W 46 O11/2/18 at Virginia 23-13 W 7 W 45 U11/10/18 VIRGINIA TECH 52-22 W -4.5 W 53 O11/17/18 at Wake Forest 34-13 W -4.5 W 62.5 U11/24/18 at Miami Fl 3-24 L 5 L 45.5 U12/1/18 vs. Clemson 10-42 L 27.5 L 53.5 U12/31/18 vs. Stanford 13-14 L 3.5 W 53 U

Pitt caught fire at the right time and won five ACC games in a row to clinch the Coastal with one game to play. This season, they have to replace their two leading rushers who accounted for just under 2,400 yards on the ground and four OL starters. Pitt only averaged 142 ypg passing last year and only 6.4 yards per pass attempt last season. New OC Mark Whipple (lastly the HC at UMass from 2014-18) should improve upon that but the rebuilding of the offensive line could pose problems protecting Kenny Pickett and they surely will not duplicate last year’s rushing attack.

UNDER 6POINTSBET

WES REYNOLDS SEASON WIN TOTAL PREDICTION



TOP TRENDS FOR 2019







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PITTSBURGHPANTHERS


Points Per Game 29.4 77Yards Per Point 13.4 893rd Down Conv. % 39.9% 74Total Yards Per Game 393.5 59Yards Per Play 5.7 74Rush Yards Per Game 188.3 84Yards Per Rush Attempt 5 99Completion % 55.4% 21Passing Yards Per Game 205.2 36Yards Per Pass Attempt 7 51Sacks 2.1 69Turnovers 1.2 98


2018 51 18.6 2.33 -9.8 4 36.3 7.32 12.65 9-DC 17.7 4.99 19.072017 48.5 15.2 1.4 -4.4 6-QB, OC 32.6 6.48 13.6 4 17.4 5.08 19.392016 52 24 2.7 -10.5 8- OC 50.9 7.91 10.43 8 26.9 5.21 14.522015 Yes 48.5 20.5 1.83 -7.2 8- OC 36.8 6.67 12.25 7-DC 16.2 4.84 18.42

• PITTSBURGH is 9-1 ATS (L10G) - VS VIRGINIA TECH

• PITTSBURGH is 11-25-1 ATS (S2000) - [vs OPP] More than 13 days rest

• PITTSBURGH is 22-9 UNDER (S2000) on ROAD - In October





SCHEDULE STRENGTH

2019 SCHEDULE




DUKEBLUE DEVILSLocation: Durham, NC Stadium: Brooks Field at Wallace Wade Stadium Head Coach: David Cutcliffe - 12th season2018 Record: 8-5Returning Starters: 12 - Offense: 4 - Defense: 8Offensive Coordinator: Zac RoperDefensive Coordinator: Ben Albert / Matt Guerrieri

44

3 / 0.5

46.38 (#26 OF 130)

8/31/19 vs. Alabama9/7/19 N CAROLINA A&T9/14/19 at Middle Tenn St9/27/19 at Virginia Tech UNDERDOGS are 4-2 SU & 5-1 ATS in L6 games of DUK-VAT series10/5/19 PITTSBURGH PITTSBURGH is 4-0 SU & ATS in its L4 games vs. DUKE10/12/19 GEORGIA TECH DUKE is 4-1 SU & 5-0 ATS in its L5 games vs. GEORGIA TECH10/19/19 at Virginia UNDER the total is 11-4 in VIR-DUK series since 199510/26/19 at North Carolina UNDERDOGS are 7-10 SU but 12-5 ATS in UNC-DUK series since 200211/9/19 NOTRE DAME11/16/19 SYRACUSE11/23/19 at Wake Forest ROAD TEAMS are 5-0 SU & ATS in L5 games of WF-DUK series11/30/19 MIAMI FL MIAMI FL is 6-2 SU & ATS in its L8 games vs. DUKE

8/31/18 ARMY 34-14 W -13.5 W 46.5 O9/8/18 at Northwestern 21-7 W 3 W 47.5 U9/15/18 at Baylor 40-27 W 2 W 51 O9/22/18 NC CENTRAL 55-13 W -44.5 L 55.5 O9/29/18 VIRGINIA TECH 14-31 L -7 L 52.5 U10/13/18 at Georgia Tech 28-14 W 1.5 W 55.5 U10/20/18 VIRGINIA 14-28 L -6.5 L 45.5 U10/27/18 at Pittsburgh 45-54 L -3 L 46 O11/3/18 at Miami Fl 20-12 W 9 W 50.5 U11/10/18 NORTH CAROLINA 42-35 W -8 L 59 O11/17/18 at Clemson 6-35 L 29.5 W 60.5 U11/24/18 WAKE FOREST 7-59 L -8.5 L 62 O12/27/18 vs. Temple 56-27 W 3.5 W 55 O

In spite of losing Daniel Jones, who went sixth overall in the NFL Draft, Duke returns a QB in Quentin Harris who saw action in 12 games last year and made two starts. Harris is more of a running threat than a passer (only 50% completion percentage), so David Cutcliffe will have to adjust his offense to better fit Harris’s abilities. Cutcliffe is perfectly capable of doing just that and he will likely have to by necessity since Duke loses its top four receivers from last year. The Duke defense returns eight starters and that likely needs to be the strength of the team with the transition to a more run-based attack. The Blue Devils open with Alabama and they will be overmatched and you worry about a team going forward that’s going to get beat up pretty good in the opener.

UNDER 6POINTSBET




TOP TRENDS FOR 2019







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DUKEBLUE DEVILS

Points Per Game 27.2 70Yards Per Point 14.2 63Plays Per Game 74 48Time of Possession 27:27 1153rd Down Conv. % 41.7% 38Total Yards Per Game 387.2 70Yards Per Play 5.2 85Rush Attempts Per Game 35.1 104Rush Yards Per Game 141.9 96Yards Per Rush Attempt 4 86Pass Attempts Per Game 36.4 25Completion % 59.0% 67Passing Yards Per Game 245.2 51Yards Per Pass Attempt 6.7 97Turnovers 1.6 83

Points Per Game 28.6 72Yards Per Point 14.9 503rd Down Conv. % 42.5% 94Total Yards Per Game 427.2 83Yards Per Play 5.5 61Rush Yards Per Game 215.4 105Yards Per Rush Attempt 5 102Completion % 56.1% 27Passing Yards Per Game 211.8 44Yards Per Pass Attempt 6.4 27Sacks 1.8 86Turnovers 1.1 112


2018 47.5 15.4 1.34 -6.8 7-QB 35.1 6.3 13.05 8 19.7 4.95 18.592017 49 18.6 1.07 -7.1 7 33.7 5.68 12.99 5 15.1 4.61 19.622016 38.5 11.1 0.53 -0.8 6-QB, OC 31.6 6.02 14.58 6 20.5 5.49 17.72015 43.5 16.5 1.24 -5.3 6-QB 37.8 6.01 12.56 7 21.3 4.77 15.97

• DUKE is 25-4 ATS (L29G) - On non-grass field

• DUKE is 0-7 ATS (L7G) on ROAD - [vs OPP] After a close SU win of 3 points or less

• DUKE is 10-0 UNDER (L10G) at HOME - Favorite of 7 or less points





SCHEDULE STRENGTH

2019 SCHEDULE




NORTH CAROLINATAR HEELSLocation: Chapel Hill, NC Stadium: Kenan Memorial Stadium Head Coach: Mack Brown - 1st season2018 Record: 2-9Returning Starters: 14 - Offense: 7 - Defense: 7Offensive Coordinator: Phil Longo *Defensive Coordinator: Jay Bateman / Tommy Thigpen *

44.5

3.75 / -0.25

46.31 (#27 OF 130)

8/31/19 vs. South Carolina UNDER the total is 3-0 in L3 games of UNC-SC series9/7/19 MIAMI FL HOME TEAMS are 6-5 SU & 9-2 ATS in MIA-UNC series since 20089/12/19 at Wake Forest HOME TEAMS are 5-1 SU & 6-0 ATS in L6 games of WF-UNC series9/21/19 APPALACHIAN ST9/28/19 CLEMSON HOME TEAMS are 5-0 SU & ATS in L5 games of CLM-UNC series10/5/19 at Georgia Tech GEORGIA TECH is 17-8 SU & 15-10 ATS vs. NORTH CAROLINA since 199410/19/19 at Virginia Tech UNDER the total is 10-2 in VAT-UNC series since 200710/26/19 DUKE UNDERDOGS are 7-10 SU but 12-5 ATS in UNC-DUK series since 200211/2/19 VIRGINIA UNDER the total is 15-5 in UNC-VIR series since 199511/14/19 at Pittsburgh NORTH CAROLINA is 6-0 SU & 5-1 ATS in its L6 games vs. PITTSBURGH11/23/19 MERCER11/30/19 at NC State UNDERDOGS are 13-8 SU & 16-5 ATS in UNC-NCS series since 1998

9/1/18 at California 17-24 L 7 T 57.5 U9/8/18 at East Carolina 19-41 L -15 L 59 O9/22/18 PITTSBURGH 38-35 W 3 W 48 O9/27/18 at Miami Fl 10-47 L 18 L 55.5 O10/13/18 VIRGINIA TECH 19-22 L 6.5 W 57.5 U10/20/18 at Syracuse 37-40 L 9.5 W 66 O10/27/18 at Virginia 21-31 L 8.5 L 51 O11/3/18 GEORGIA TECH 28-38 L 4.5 L 65 O11/10/18 at Duke 35-42 L 8 W 59 O11/17/18 W CAROLINA 49-26 W -29.5 L 81.5 U11/24/18 NC STATE 28-34 L 7 W 63 U

Mack Brown returns for his second stint in Chapel Hill as he was here previously from 1988-1997. He’s been out of the game for five years and working TV for ABC/ESPN. Oftentimes, that’s a very tough transition as five years is an eternity nowadays in college football. On the other hand, Bill Snyder had a good run in his second act at Kansas State so it’s not impossible. This is a club that will likely be better with 16 returning starters but it might not show in the W column the first year as the Tar Heels play eleven teams that went to bowl games last season.

UNDER 5.5WESTGATE




TOP TRENDS FOR 2019







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NORTH CAROLINATAR HEELS

Points Per Game 25.2 85Yards Per Point 16.7 110Plays Per Game 74.8 43Time of Possession 27:32 1133rd Down Conv. % 33.8% 108Total Yards Per Game 420.9 38Yards Per Play 5.6 60Rush Attempts Per Game 35.2 100Rush Yards Per Game 182.7 49Yards Per Rush Attempt 5.2 20Pass Attempts Per Game 38.6 14Completion % 58.0% 78Passing Yards Per Game 238.2 56Yards Per Pass Attempt 6.2 113Turnovers 2 115



2018 40 6.9 1.54 1.6 5-QB 33.8 6.84 15.04 8 26.9 5.3 14.762017 40.5 11 1.28 4.7 5-QB 34.2 6.32 12.82 7-DC 23.3 5.05 16.192016 52.5 24.3 3.21 -11.8 7-QB 41.3 7.94 12.55 7 17 4.73 21.412015 57.5 31.3 3.55 -15.3 10 49.9 8.29 11.04 7-DC 18.6 4.75 19.85

• NORTH CAROLINA is 11-2 ATS (L13G) - After playing VIRGINIA TECH

• NORTH CAROLINA is 1-6 ATS (L7G) on ROAD - [vs OPP] After a blowout SU loss 20 points or more

• NORTH CAROLINA is 7-0 OVER (L7G) at HOME - [vs OPP] After a close SU loss 3 points or less





SCHEDULE STRENGTH

2019 SCHEDULE




GEORGIA TECHYELLOW JACKETSLocation: Atlanta, GA Stadium: Bobby Dodd Stadium at Historic Grant Field Head Coach: Geoff Collins - 1st season2018 Record: 7-6Returning Starters: 9 - Offense: 5 - Defense: 4Offensive Coordinator: Dave Patenaude *Defensive Coordinator: Nathan Burton / Andrew Thacker *

40.5

3.75 / -0.5

47.17 (#17 OF 130)

8/29/19 at Clemson CLEMSON is 14-12 SU & 17-8 ATS vs. GEORGIA TECH since 19949/7/19 SOUTH FLORIDA9/14/19 THE CITADEL9/28/19 at Temple10/5/19 NORTH CAROLINA GEORGIA TECH is 17-8 SU & 15-10 ATS vs. NORTH CAROLINA since 199410/12/19 at Duke DUKE is 4-1 SU & 5-0 ATS in its L5 games vs. GEORGIA TECH10/19/19 at Miami Fl MIAMI FL is 8-2 SU & 7-3 ATS vs. GEORGIA TECH since 200911/2/19 PITTSBURGH UNDERDOGS are 5-1 ATS in L6 games of PIT-GAT series11/9/19 at Virginia HOME TEAMS are 18-4 SU & 15-5 ATS in VIR-GAT series since 199711/16/19 VIRGINIA TECH UNDERDOGS are 6-1 SU & 7-0 ATS in L7 games of GAT-VAT series11/21/19 NC STATE ROAD TEAMS are 7-0 SU & 6-0 ATS in L7 games of NCS-GAT series11/30/19 GEORGIA GEORGIA is 9-1 SU & 10-0 ATS in its L10 games at GEORGIA TECH

9/1/18 ALCORN ST 41-0 W -42 L 59.5 U9/8/18 at South Florida 38-49 L -3.5 L 60 O9/15/18 at Pittsburgh 19-24 L -3.5 L 54 U9/22/18 CLEMSON 21-49 L 15.5 L 55.5 O9/29/18 BOWLING GREEN 63-17 W -28 W 65 O10/5/18 at Louisville 66-31 W -5.5 W 56.5 O10/13/18 DUKE 14-28 L -1.5 L 55.5 U10/25/18 at Virginia Tech 49-28 W 3 W 58 O11/3/18 at North Carolina 38-28 W -4.5 W 65 O11/10/18 MIAMI FL 27-21 W 1 W 51 U11/17/18 VIRGINIA 30-27 W -6 L 51.5 O11/24/18 at Georgia 21-45 L 17 L 60.5 O12/26/18 vs. Minnesota 10-34 L -5.5 L 57 U

This is a complete rebuild for Geoff Collins coming in from Temple. He inherits an offensive roster that was recruited to run Paul Johnson’s triple option so this team clearly is lacking in receivers and at quarterback. The defense also only returns four starters. Collins did a good job at Temple leading them to two winning seasons and bowl appearances, but inherited a better situation there replacing Matt Rhule. This will be a much tougher adjustment in Atlanta and they will get a quick dose of reality opening with Clemson.

UNDER 4FANDUEL




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GEORGIA TECHYELLOW JACKETS

Points Per Game 33 27Yards Per Point 12 15Plays Per Game 67.9 100Time of Possession 33:35 83rd Down Conv. % 41.8% 36Total Yards Per Game 397.6 65Yards Per Play 5.9 41Rush Attempts Per Game 57.6 3Rush Yards Per Game 315.5 2Yards Per Rush Attempt 5.5 12Pass Attempts Per Game 9 129Completion % 43.5% 129Passing Yards Per Game 82.1 129Yards Per Pass Attempt 9.1 6Turnovers 1.2 26



2018 48.5 19.9 1.78 -9.5 8-QB 41.8 7.04 11.44 5-DC 21.9 5.25 14.972017 48 21.3 2.49 -12.5 8-QB 40.2 7.12 12.08 8 18.9 4.62 15.742016 49 17.8 2.5 -8.5 6 36.1 7.68 12.48 5 18.3 5.18 19.782015 46.5 21.6 2.01 -8 5 38.1 7.01 11.88 8 16.5 5 19.19

• GEORGIA TECH is 10-0 ATS (L10G) at HOME - [vs OPP] After a blowout SU loss 20 points or more

• GEORGIA TECH is 0-9 ATS (L9G) at HOME - VS GEORGIA

• GEORGIA TECH is 7-0 UNDER (L7G) - After playing NC STATE



BIG 12CONFERENCE PREVIEW

2019 Home Road Schd S.S. ALL GAMES CONFERENCETeam SM PR Field Field Strg Rank PrjW's PrjL's PrjW's PrjL'sOKLAHOMA 64.5 3.5 0.5 43.81 49 10.9 1.1 8.0 1.0TEXAS 52 3.25 -0.25 45.98 32 7.3 4.7 5.2 3.8OKLAHOMA ST 51.5 3 0.5 43.19 53 7.9 4.1 5.1 3.9IOWA ST 51 4.25 0 44.88 43 7.5 4.5 5.0 4.0BAYLOR 49.5 3.25 0.25 39.46 69 7.8 4.2 4.9 4.1TCU 49 2.5 0.5 42.02 60 6.8 5.2 4.4 4.6WEST VIRGINIA 47 3.5 0.25 48.10 12 5.7 6.3 4.1 4.9TEXAS TECH 47 3.75 -0.25 43.98 47 6.4 5.6 4.0 5.0KANSAS ST 44.5 2.75 0.25 45.60 33 5.4 6.6 3.4 5.6KANSAS 30.5 2.5 -0.5 46.23 28 2.2 9.8 0.7 8.3



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GAMEREGULAR SEASON 1ST TEXAS OKLAHOMA OKLAHOMA OKLAHOMA OKLAHOMA TEXAS OKLAHOMA OKLAHOMA

REGULAR SEASON 2ND OKLAHOMA TEXAS TEXAS IOWA ST TEXAS OKLAHOMA TEXAS TEXAS

BIG 12 CHAMPIONSHIP OKLAHOMA TEXAS OKLAHOMA OKLAHOMA OKLAHOMA TEXAS OKLAHOMA OKLAHOMA

WRITTEN BY BRUCE MARSHALL FROM THE GOLD SHEET - @BRUCEAMARSHALL


Oklahoma and TexasHere we go again with new reality in the Big 12...two Red River Rivalry battles! While that might mean sensory overload in the region, the Sooners and Longhorns figure to meet up for the second straight year in the conference title game...for good reason. In his two years on the job, Tom Herman has progressed Texas to the point where it is thinking national title once again, especially after last year’s wins over OU (regular season) and Georgia (Sugar Bowl). Rough-hewn junior QB Sam Ehlinger (accounted for 41 TDs in 2018) is the ultimate gamer, and regional sources expect to see dividends from Herman’s upgraded recruiting efforts that should soften the blow of nine departed starters on defense. Meanwhile, Lincoln Riley is 2-for-2 in Norman with Final Four trips and Heisman Trophy winners. A three-peat for each likely rests on winning another Big 12 title game (likely vs. the Horns) and Bama transfer QB Jalen Hurts picking up where Baker Mayfield and Kyler Murray have left off. Don’t discount either. Before conference play begins, keep an eye on Texas and its major intersectional matchup vs. LSU at Austin on Sept. 7.

Iowa StateBack-to-back 8-5 records might get Ed Orgeron fired at LSU, but at Iowa State they’re ready to build a statue for underrated coach Matt Campbell after reaching the “big 8” two years running. Still, we suspect the Cyclones are going to be a bit undervalued this season because of the departure of two key offensive cogs, RB David Montgomery and WR Hakeem Butler, both off to the NFL. But Campbell did uncover a new QB last fall in then-frosh Brock Purdy, who discarded his redshirt year and took over the offense a month into the campaign and promptly led wins in 7 of 8 starts to close the regular season. Even if the offense regresses a bit, Campbell’s stop unit has had as much to do with the recent resurgence as anything, and led the Big 12 in scoring defense last fall. Seven starters, including the entire DL and several playmakers, remain in the fold. Spread-wise, note that Campbell has only had one losing season in seven at Toledo and ISU (that came in 2014 with the Rockets). Along the way, Campbell has established himself as one of the top underdog coaches in the land, with a 19-8-1 mark as the “short” since his last campaign at Toledo (2015). With odds at roughly 11-1, ISU is also the only longshot we might consider with a small investment to steal the Big 12 crown.

West VirginiaWhile we expect the hire of Neal Brown from Troy could eventually work quite well for West Virginia, we’re not sure things get off to a smooth start. A roster in transition coupled with a new staff and new terminology add up to a bumpy ride. Riding into the sunset after last season with HC Dana Holgorsen (off to Houston) were several key cogs spending summer in NFL camps, specifically QB Will Grier, WR David Sills V, and LB David Long. We saw the Mounties struggle in the Camping World Bowl minus Grier, and neither holdover Jack Allison (who started that bowl vs. Syracuse) nor Oklahoma transfer Austin Kendall grabbed the QB job in the spring. Meanwhile, a defensive roster built for Holgorsen’s 3-3-5 “stack” is adjusting to more of a 4-2-5 preferred by new DC Vic Koenning. The schedule is also no picnic, even the opener FCS James Madison, one of the top contenders in that division. Dropoff time in Morgantown.

BIG 12 CONFERENCE PREVIEW

THE FAVORITES

LIVE DOG

DEAD MONEY

BIG GAMES ON THE BOARDLSU at Texas, Sept. 7No, it’s not a conference game, but it is perhaps the biggest intersectional clash of the year and an indicator if Tom Herman’s Longhorns really are ready to contend for national honors, not to mention a barometer of the top tier of the Big 12 vs. the SEC. Early summer prices on this battle have the visiting Tigers a slight favorite, which means it’s time for “Tom Herman-as-a-dog” references, because Herman’s Houston and Texas teams are 13-2-1 as the “short” the past four seasons.

Oklahoma vs. Texas (at Dallas), Oct. 12The only possible distraction for this annual battle at the Cotton Bowl is that it likely looms as a prequel to the conference title game in December that could well decide a berth in the Final Four. But if this isn’t the game of the regular season in the Big 12, you’ve got a scoop. The Longhorns won Round One in breathless fashion last October,

48-45, and had a shot at Kyler Murray & Co. in the title game. Rankings, possible Heisman ramifications, you name it, a lot will be on the line as Dallas once again grows still when these old enemies clash.

Iowa State at Oklahoma, Nov. 9Since the Cyclones don’t draw either OU or Texas until November (when they’ll face them back-to-back), some regional observers believe ISU could be in a threatening position in the league race entering that crucial two-game stretch. This is the first of those clashes. Remember, it was in Norman two years ago that Matt Campbell fired his first real warning shot at ISU, when the 31-point dog Cyclones pulled a 38-31 shocker behind little-used QB Kyle Kempt. Rest assured Lincoln Riley hasn’t forgotten about that result.




SCHEDULE STRENGTH

2019 SCHEDULE




2019 BIG 12 CONFERENCE

OKLAHOMASOONERSLocation: Norman, OK Stadium: Gaylord Family – Oklahoma Memorial StadiumHead Coach: Lincoln Riley - 3rd season2018 Record: 12-2Returning Starters: 12 - Offense: 4 - Defense: 8Offensive Coordinator: Bill Bedenbaugh / Cale GundyDefensive Coordinator: Alex Grinch *

64.5

3.5 / 0.5

43.81 (#49 OF 130)

8/31/19 HOUSTON9/7/19 S DAKOTA9/14/19 at UCLA OVER the total is 3-0 in L3 games of OKL-UCLA series9/28/19 TEXAS TECH HOME TEAMS are 3-4 SU but 7-0 ATS in L7 games of TT-OKL series10/5/19 at Kansas ROAD TEAMS are 12-8 ATS in OKL-KAN series since 199210/12/19 vs. Texas UNDERDOGS are 9-16 SU but 15-10 ATS in TEX-OKL series since 199410/19/19 WEST VIRGINIA OVER the total is 5-0 in L5 games of WVU-OKL series10/26/19 at Kansas St OVER the total is 6-0 in L6 games of OKL-KSU series at KANSAS ST11/9/19 IOWA ST OVER the total is 6-1 in L7 games of ISU-OKL series11/16/19 at Baylor ROAD TEAMS are 10-13 SU but 15-8 ATS in OKL-BAY series since 199611/23/19 TCU UNDER the total is 5-0 in L5 games of TCU-OKL series at OKLAHOMA11/30/19 at Oklahoma St ROAD TEAMS are 8-2 ATS in OKS-OKL series since 2009

9/1/18 FLA ATLANTIC 63-14 W -18.5 W 69 O9/8/18 UCLA 49-21 W -30.5 L 65.5 O9/15/18 at Iowa St 37-27 W -18.5 L 55.5 O9/22/18 ARMY 28-21 W -28.5 L 60 U9/29/18 BAYLOR 66-33 W -21 W 69.5 O10/6/18 vs. Texas 45-48 L -7 L 59 O10/20/18 at TCU 52-27 W -8.5 W 61 O10/27/18 KANSAS ST 51-14 W -23.5 W 64.5 O11/3/18 at Texas Tech 51-46 W -14 L 77.5 O11/10/18 OKLAHOMA ST 48-47 W -21.5 L 80 O11/17/18 KANSAS 55-40 W -35 L 68 O11/23/18 at West Virginia 59-56 W -3 T 87 O12/1/18 vs. Texas 39-27 W -9.5 W 79 U12/29/18 vs. Alabama 34-45 L 15 W 80.5 U

While new QB Jalen Hurts was indeed 26-2 as a starter at Alabama, there is a dangerous assumption that he will simply pick up where Heisman winners (and fellow transfers) Baker Mayfield and Kyler Murray left off before him. We’re not so sure, considering the record-breaking numbers posted by Mayfield and Murray that helped each become the top picks in the last two NFL Drafts. And OU’s accelerated pace or not, let’s not forget the Sooners ranked dead last nationally in pass defense a year ago. Even though five starters return in the secondary, new DC Alex Grinch (over from Ohio State) was tinkering constantly with coverages and possible position switches in spring. For the moment, a vet DL looms as the strength of the platoon, while tackling-machine MLB Kenneth Murray could be the star. Whoever plays on the stop end, the Sooners need to force more than the 11 TOs they caused a year ago, and let’s not forget that OU allowed 40 points or more in five of their last six games. Until the issues on the stop end are solved, we’re not as convinced as we were the past two seasons with Mayfield and Murray that OU is simply going to outscore everyone again. Remember, it was a very wild

ride to get to 11 wins each of the past two years after early-October losses in both seasons. Especially a year ago, as OU had several harrowing escapes (a scrap vs. Iowa, an escape vs. Army–which is off of this year’s schedule, pleasing Lincoln Riley, plus narrow wins in basketball-type scorelines vs. Texas Tech, Ok State, and Baylor). Another loss in Dallas vs. Texas, like a year ago, would have the Sooners very precariously perched to reach the 11 wins needed to make the “Over” work. That might be asking a lot.

UNDER 10.5FANDUEL

BRUCE MARSHALL’S SEASON WIN TOTAL PREDICTION


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OKLAHOMASOONERS


Points Per Game 33.3 95Yards Per Point 13.6 803rd Down Conv. % 46.4% 118Total Yards Per Game 453.8 105Yards Per Play 6 95Rush Yards Per Game 159.8 59Yards Per Rush Attempt 4.1 50Completion % 64.6% 113Passing Yards Per Game 294 129Yards Per Pass Attempt 8.4 107Sacks 2.1 70Turnovers 0.8 127


2018 65 34.3 5.13 -25 6 57.4 10.35 11.91 6 23.1 5.22 16.772017 Yes 67 38 5.43 -23.9 9 51.4 10.23 13.76 7 13.3 4.81 24.522016 65 33.2 3.95 -24.6 7 50.4 9.06 13.25 6 17.2 5.11 21.942015 67.5 41.1 4.06 -23.4 7- OC 49.1 8.15 12.96 6 8 4.09 38.56

• OKLAHOMA is 10-0 ATS (L10G) - [vs OPP] After a close SU loss 3 points or less

• OKLAHOMA is 2-8 ATS (L10G) on ROAD - [vs OPP] After a blowout SU loss 20 points or more

• OKLAHOMA is 9-0 OVER (L9G) - Before playing TCU





SCHEDULE STRENGTH

2019 SCHEDULE




TEXASLONGHORNSLocation: Austin, TX Stadium: Darrell K Royal–Texas Memorial Stadium Head Coach: Tom Herman - 3rd season2018 Record: 10-4Returning Starters: 8 - Offense: 5 QB - Defense: 3Offensive Coordinator: Tim Beck / Herb HandDefensive Coordinator: Todd Orlando / Craig Naivar

52

3.25 / -0.25

45.98 (#32 OF 130)

8/31/19 LOUISIANA TECH9/7/19 LSU9/14/19 vs. Rice HOME TEAMS are 12-3 SU & 10-5 ATS in RIC-TEX series since 19929/21/19 OKLAHOMA ST FAVORITES are 20-1 SU & 14-6 ATS in TEX-OKS series since 199810/5/19 at West Virginia ROAD TEAMS are 4-0 SU & ATS in L4 games of TEX-WVU series10/12/19 vs. Oklahoma UNDERDOGS are 9-16 SU but 15-10 ATS in TEX-OKL series since 199410/19/19 KANSAS HOME TEAMS are 8-6 SU & 10-4 ATS in KAN-TEX series since 200010/26/19 at TCU UNDER the total is 6-1 in L7 games of TEX-TCU series11/9/19 KANSAS ST HOME TEAMS are 6-2 SU & 8-0 ATS in L8 games of TEX-KSU series11/16/19 at Iowa St UNDER the total is 4-0 in L4 games of ISU-TEX series11/23/19 at Baylor UNDER the total is 6-0 in L6 games of BAY-TEX series11/29/19 TEXAS TECH ROAD TEAMS are 6-0 SU & ATS in L6 games of TT-TEX series

9/1/18 vs. Maryland 29-34 L -12 L 54.5 O9/8/18 TULSA 28-21 W -21 L 59.5 U9/15/18 USC 37-14 W -3 W 47.5 O9/22/18 TCU 31-16 W 2.5 W 50 U9/29/18 at Kansas St 19-14 W -8.5 L 48.5 U10/6/18 vs. Oklahoma 48-45 W 7 W 59 O10/13/18 BAYLOR 23-17 W -14 L 59 U10/27/18 at Oklahoma St 35-38 L -1.5 L 59.5 O11/3/18 WEST VIRGINIA 41-42 L -1 L 57.5 O11/10/18 at Texas Tech 41-34 W -2 W 62.5 O11/17/18 IOWA ST 24-10 W -1.5 W 51 U11/23/18 at Kansas 24-17 W -15 L 51 U12/1/18 vs. Oklahoma 27-39 L 9.5 L 79 U1/1/19 vs. Georgia 28-21 W 13.5 W 60 U

Though there are some QBs in the country with gaudier stats than Horns junior Sam Ehlinger, there might not be a better leader. The rough-hewn Ehlinger is a TD machine, at 235 pounds also a bruising runner who scored 16 rush TDs a year ago, and can keep drives alive with his jarring runs that rarely avoid contact. He also threw 25 TD passes in 2018. That reckless bent, however, is something Herman might want to curb, as Ehlinger missed the Baylor and Iowa State games last fall when hurting his shoulder while pretending he was Earl Campbell on some scrambles. But as long as Ehlinger stays on the field, the Horns will be a load, and don’t forget that Ehlinger was 2-1 vs. Oklahoma and Georgia last season. Ehlinger’s supporting cast is solid, and regional insiders expect little or no drop-off on the stop end even with the loss of nine defensive starters, as Tom Herman’s upgraded recruiting efforts begin to bear fruit. Being unable

to avoid banana peels vs. underdogs such as Maryland (twice), Oklahoma State, and West Virginia the past two years have reduced the recent win totals, but as the Horns mature into a national contender for Herman, those sort of slips should begin to disappear. Besides, Texas is very capable of beating both LSU and Oklahoma. Win those two, and the ceiling shoots a lot higher than 9.5 wins.

OVER 9WESTGATE




TOP TRENDS FOR 2019







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TEXASLONGHORNS

Points Per Game 31.1 36Yards Per Point 13.2 35Plays Per Game 76.4 27Time of Possession 32:13 233rd Down Conv. % 46.4% 14Total Yards Per Game 411.6 55Yards Per Play 5.4 74Rush Attempts Per Game 40.5 43Rush Yards Per Game 153.4 80Yards Per Rush Attempt 3.8 97Pass Attempts Per Game 34 43Completion % 65.1% 18Passing Yards Per Game 258.2 32Yards Per Pass Attempt 7.6 50Turnovers 0.8 4



2018 57 24.5 1.96 -14 7-QB 39 6.78 12.96 7 14.5 4.82 23.552017 Yes 53.5 25.6 1.99 -11.8 7- OC 34.9 6.36 14.23 10-DC 9.3 4.37 33.262016 43.5 16.9 2.06 -9.9 7- OC 36.1 6.95 16.04 8 19.2 4.89 20.332015 46.5 15.3 2.12 -2.6 7 31.3 6.9 14.34 5 16 4.79 24.08

• TEXAS is 10-0 ATS (L10G) - Before playing IOWA ST

• TEXAS is 2-8 ATS (L10G) - Before playing OKLAHOMA

• TEXAS is 14-1 UNDER (L15G) on ROAD - as Non-ranked team





SCHEDULE STRENGTH

2019 SCHEDULE




OKLAHOMA STCOWBOYSLocation: Stillwater, OK Stadium: Boone Pickens Stadium Head Coach: Mike Gundy - 15th season2018 Record: 7-6Returning Starters: 12 - Offense: 7 - Defense: 5Offensive Coordinator: Sean Gleeson *Defensive Coordinator: Jim Knowles

51.5

3 / 0.5

43.19 (#53 OF 130)

8/30/19 at Oregon St9/7/19 MCNEESE ST9/14/19 at Tulsa HOME TEAMS are 8-2 SU & ATS in OKS-TLS series since 19949/21/19 at Texas FAVORITES are 20-1 SU & 14-6 ATS in TEX-OKS series since 19989/28/19 KANSAS ST OVER the total is 6-0 in L6 games of KSU-OKS series at OKLAHOMA ST10/5/19 at Texas Tech ROAD TEAMS are 7-3 SU & 8-2 ATS in TT-OKS series since 200910/19/19 BAYLOR OKLAHOMA ST is 9-1 SU & ATS in its L10 games hosting BAYLOR10/26/19 at Iowa St OVER the total is 5-1 in L6 games of ISU-OKS series11/2/19 TCU UNDERDOGS are 4-0 SU & ATS in L4 games of OKS-TCU series11/16/19 KANSAS OKLAHOMA ST is 14-3 SU & ATS vs. KANSAS since 199411/23/19 at West Virginia OKLAHOMA ST is 4-0 SU & ATS in its L4 games vs. WEST VIRGINIA11/30/19 OKLAHOMA ROAD TEAMS are 8-2 ATS in OKS-OKL series since 2009

8/30/18 MISSOURI ST 58-17 W -45 L 73 O9/8/18 S ALABAMA 55-13 W -30.5 W 64.5 O9/15/18 BOISE ST 44-21 W 1 W 66 U9/22/18 TEXAS TECH 17-41 L -14.5 L 77 U9/29/18 at Kansas 48-28 W -17 W 55.5 O10/6/18 IOWA ST 42-48 L -10 L 55.5 O10/13/18 at Kansas St 12-31 L -8 L 62.5 U10/27/18 TEXAS 38-35 W 1.5 W 59.5 O11/3/18 at Baylor 31-35 L -6.5 L 68.5 U11/10/18 at Oklahoma 47-48 L 21.5 W 80 O11/17/18 WEST VIRGINIA 45-41 W 6 W 73 O11/24/18 at TCU 24-31 L -6 L 54.5 O12/31/18 vs. Missouri 38-33 W 10 W 72 U

Mike Gundy’s offenses are usually potent, and after pulling QB Taylor Cornelius out of his hat last season, we don’t doubt Gundy can make the strike force again with former Hawaii transfer Dru Brown or RS frosh Spencer Sanders taking snaps. Especially with some of the new wrinkles that first-year OC Sean Gleeson (over from Princeton, which led the FCS in scoring at 47 ppg a year ago) will add to the Gundy spread. But holding back the Cowboys like a year ago could be the defense, which at times in 2018 looked positively raucous for coordinator Jim Knowles, such as the first few weeks when leading the nation in sacks. Though by the end of the season the Cowboy D had sunk to a 112th ranking nationally. The stop unit, according to some Big 12 scouts, was “all over the place,” suggesting Knowles was either uncomfy with his schemes or personnel combinations. If he wants to stick into 2020, he’d better figure things out a bit. Almost everyone returns in the secondary, but here is where things really struggled in 2018, ranking 118th vs. the pass. OSU should get some non-league

wins on the cheap vs. Oregon State, McNeese, and Tulsa that will help Mullet Man get bowl-eligible for a 14th straight season, but a better idea where the Cowboys fit in the Big 12 puzzle, and how far Brown or Sanders (or both) have progressed at QB, comes in their conference opener at Texas on September 21. Remember, OSU went only 3-6 in the Big 12 a year ago, but that soft nonconference slate makes 7 wins the most-likely landing spot this fall.

PUSH 7FANDUEL




TOP TRENDS FOR 2019







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OKLAHOMA STCOWBOYS


Points Per Game 33.8 98Yards Per Point 13.9 743rd Down Conv. % 38.2% 51Total Yards Per Game 468.8 115Yards Per Play 6 97Rush Yards Per Game 192 85Yards Per Rush Attempt 4.8 89Completion % 63.2% 102Passing Yards Per Game 276.8 125Yards Per Pass Attempt 7.8 96Sacks 2.8 22Turnovers 0.9 119


2018 53 20.8 2.3 -10.3 5 44.1 7.47 13.11 7-DC 23.3 5.17 16.512017 60.5 32.5 3.96 -22.5 7 51.5 8.7 13.3 5 18.9 4.74 18.252016 58.5 25.5 2.46 -18.1 10 42.3 7.76 13.47 7 16.9 5.3 23.862015 54 25.9 2.54 -13.1 8 43.9 7.45 12.76 8 18 4.91 21.22

• OKLAHOMA ST is 16-3 ATS (L19G) - Before playing TEXAS TECH

• OKLAHOMA ST is 2-8 ATS (L10G) - VS KANSAS ST

• OKLAHOMA ST is 36-8 OVER (L44G) at HOME - [vs OPP] After SU loss





SCHEDULE STRENGTH

2019 SCHEDULE




IOWA STCYCLONESLocation: Ames, IA Stadium: Jack Trice Stadium Head Coach: Matt Campbell - 4th season2018 Record: 8-5Returning Starters: 16 - Offense: 8 QB - Defense: 8Offensive Coordinator: Tom Manning *Defensive Coordinator: Jon Heacock

51

4.25 / 0

44.88 (#43 OF 130)

8/31/19 N IOWA UNDER the total is 4-1 in L5 games of UNI-ISU series at IOWA ST9/14/19 IOWA IOWA ST is 10-11 SU but 14-7 ATS vs. IOWA since 19989/21/19 LA MONROE9/28/19 at Baylor ROAD TEAMS are 5-1 ATS in L6 games of ISU-BAY series10/5/19 TCU UNDER the total is 5-1 in L6 games of ISU-TCU series10/12/19 at West Virginia FAVORITES are 5-2 SU & ATS in L7 games of WVU-ISU series10/19/19 at Texas Tech HOME TEAMS are 10-5 SU & 9-6 ATS in ISU-TT series since 199810/26/19 OKLAHOMA ST OVER the total is 5-1 in L6 games of ISU-OKS series11/9/19 at Oklahoma OVER the total is 6-1 in L7 games of ISU-OKL series11/16/19 TEXAS UNDER the total is 4-0 in L4 games of ISU-TEX series11/23/19 KANSAS UNDER the total is 5-0 in L5 games of ISU-KAN series at IOWA ST11/30/19 at Kansas St UNDERDOGS are 2-10 SU but 8-2 ATS in ISU-KSU series since 2007

9/8/18 at Iowa 3-13 L 3 L 46 U9/15/18 OKLAHOMA 27-37 L 18.5 W 55.5 O9/22/18 AKRON 26-13 W -18.5 L 47.5 U9/29/18 at TCU 14-17 L 11.5 W 45 U10/6/18 at Oklahoma St 48-42 W 10 W 55.5 O10/13/18 WEST VIRGINIA 30-14 W 4.5 W 55.5 U10/27/18 TEXAS TECH 40-31 W -6 W 58.5 O11/3/18 at Kansas 27-3 W -18 W 46 U11/10/18 BAYLOR 28-14 W -17 L 51 U11/17/18 at Texas 10-24 L 1.5 L 51 U11/24/18 KANSAS ST 42-38 W -10.5 L 42 O12/1/18 DRAKE 27-24 W -39.5 L 53.5 U12/28/18 vs. Washington St 26-28 L 2.5 W 56 U

To get beyond 8 wins will not necessarily require the Cyclones to beat either Oklahoma or Texas in mid-November; rather, the key game could be the showdown with cross-state Iowa on Sept. 14. The ante has been upped for the Hawkeyes game, the importance of which is not lost upon ISU, which takes the first of its two byes after the Aug. 31 home opener vs. Northern Iowa. Which is no accident as Matt Campbell hopes to work out some of the kinks for his troops before hosting Kirk Ferentz and his bunch from Iowa City two weeks later. After losing four straight in the “Cy-Hawk” series, the Cyclones are treating that in-state showdown as something of a crusade. It’s also effectively a one-game non-league slate (ULM the other to visit Ames besides UNI). Win that one over the Hawkeyes and ISU will have an extra loss to play with in Big 12 play even if losing to the Sooners and Longhorns. Speaking of bye weeks, ISU has strategically placed its second of those on the slate in early November, right before what could be that back-to-back vs. Oklahoma and Texas. And beating either would be no surprise after

pushing both the past two seasons and even beating the Sooners in 2017 at Norman. Remember, Campbell steered the Cyclones to 8 wins a season ago even after a slow 1-3 break from the gate, and does not lose outright when favored (10 straight-up wins in a row as chalk), and the core of the most-robust defense in the Big 12 returns almost en masse. As long as soph QB Brock Purdy continues to progress, the Cyclones could be a sleeper on a national scale as well.

OVER 8FANDUEL




TOP TRENDS FOR 2019







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IOWA STCYCLONES




2018 51 19 2.06 -10.6 6-QB, OC 33.5 6.52 12.37 6 14.5 4.46 21.332017 54.5 26.8 2.31 -11.4 6 36.4 6.88 12.99 6 9.6 4.57 32.772016 Yes 41 13.7 1.88 -0.3 4- OC 33.9 7.02 14.76 8-DC 20.3 5.15 19.292015 43 14.2 1.57 -3.2 7 32.1 6.71 15.84 6 17.9 5.14 21.1

• IOWA ST is 13-4 ATS (L17G) - [vs OPP] After a close SU win of 3 points or less

• IOWA ST is 1-6 ATS (L7G) on ROAD - as AP top 25

• IOWA ST is 10-0 UNDER (L10G) - Underdog of 7 or less points





SCHEDULE STRENGTH

2019 SCHEDULE




BAYLORBEARSLocation: Waco, TX Stadium: McLane Stadium Head Coach: Matt Rhule - 3rd season2018 Record: 7-6Returning Starters: 15 - Offense: 8 QB - Defense: 7Offensive Coordinator: Glenn Thomas / Jeff NixonDefensive Coordinator: Phil Snow

49.5

3.25 / 0.25

39.46 (#69 OF 130)

8/31/19 STEPH F AUSTIN9/7/19 TX-SAN ANTONIO9/21/19 at Rice FAVORITES are 8-0 SU & 7-1 ATS in L8 games of BAY-RIC series9/28/19 IOWA ST ROAD TEAMS are 5-1 ATS in L6 games of ISU-BAY series10/5/19 at Kansas St UNDERDOGS are 4-8 SU but 10-2 ATS in BAY-KSU series since 200310/12/19 TEXAS TECH TEXAS TECH is 6-0 SU & ATS in its L6 games at BAYLOR10/19/19 at Oklahoma St OKLAHOMA ST is 9-1 SU & ATS in its L10 games hosting BAYLOR10/31/19 WEST VIRGINIA HOME TEAMS are 6-1 SU & ATS in L7 games of WVU-BAY series11/9/19 at TCU TCU is 8-4 SU & 10-2 ATS vs. BAYLOR since 199511/16/19 OKLAHOMA ROAD TEAMS are 10-13 SU but 15-8 ATS in OKL-BAY series since 199611/23/19 TEXAS UNDER the total is 6-0 in L6 games of BAY-TEX series11/30/19 at Kansas FAVORITES are 7-0 SU & ATS in L7 games of BAY-KAN series

9/1/18 ABILENE CHRISTIAN 55-27 W -41 L 54.5 O9/8/18 at Tx-San Antonio 37-20 W -16.5 W 54.5 O9/15/18 DUKE 27-40 L -2 L 51 O9/22/18 KANSAS 26-7 W -7.5 W 54.5 U9/29/18 at Oklahoma 33-66 L 21 L 69.5 O10/6/18 KANSAS ST 37-34 W -3.5 L 54.5 O10/13/18 at Texas 17-23 L 14 W 59 U10/25/18 at West Virginia 14-58 L 14.5 L 67 O11/3/18 OKLAHOMA ST 35-31 W 6.5 W 68.5 U11/10/18 at Iowa St 14-28 L 17 W 51 U11/17/18 TCU 9-16 L 1 L 49 U11/24/18 vs. Texas Tech 35-24 W 7 W 61.5 U12/27/18 vs. Vanderbilt 45-38 W 4.5 W 56.5 O

We have to admit we’re a bit disappointed in the Bears’ non-league slate, which has been geared down considerably for 2019, with Stephen F. Austin, UTSA, and, renewing an old rivalry from the long-ago SWC days, Rice (the only game of the trio on the road). Read that as you wish, but such a downgraded slate is not accidental. That won’t prepare Baylor for the Big 12 wars, but at least Matt Rhule doesn’t have to worry about either Oklahoma or Texas until mid-November. By that time the Bears should have secured their bowl eligibility for a 10th time in 11 years, not to mention on their way to the 8 wins necessary to make this “Over” recommendation work. But it’s more than a forgiving slate that makes the “Over” worth a look; last year’s recovery to a winning record and a thrilling Texas Bowl win over Vanderbilt has temporarily rehabilitated the reputations of both the Baylor and Rhule.. The offense made progress in “Rhule 2” at McLane Stadium thanks mainly to jr. QB Charlie Brewer, who displayed the sort of moxie that his dad Robert once showed as a Texas QB in the early 80s. Brewer, thrown into the fire early in his career, saved his best

for last a season ago when passing for 384 yards and 2 TDs plus running for another 109 yards in the bowl win over Vandy. With Chris Platt getting a fifth-year waiver, the receiving corps has depth and experience (fellow sr. Denzel Mims, who dipped a bit from his 1087 receiving yards in 2017, combined with Platt for 91 catches last season). The top four rushers also return including jr. Trestan Ebner, who starred in the bowl. Enough playmakers also remain on Phil Snow’s D to push the win total to 8.

OVER 7.5FANDUEL




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BAYLORBEARS


Points Per Game 32.1 88Yards Per Point 13.1 953rd Down Conv. % 44.2% 107Total Yards Per Game 421.5 79Yards Per Play 6.3 114Rush Yards Per Game 180.6 79Yards Per Rush Attempt 5.3 118Completion % 59.5% 64Passing Yards Per Game 240.9 80Yards Per Pass Attempt 7.8 93Sacks 2 73Turnovers 0.8 128


2018 44.5 12.3 1.28 1.2 9-QB 34.8 6.79 14.74 8 22.6 5.51 16.072017 Yes 39.5 6.5 1.25 3.1 6-QB, OC 30.8 6.74 16 7-DC 24.3 5.49 162016 Yes 49.5 16.6 1.88 -9.5 5 37.5 6.88 15.67 4 20.9 5 18.732015 61.5 33.9 3.7 -27.7 9-QB, OC 48.8 8.22 14.04 9 15 4.52 23.22

• BAYLOR is 7-0 ATS (L7G) - VS KANSAS

• BAYLOR is 1-9 ATS (L10G) on ROAD - VS OKLAHOMA ST

• BAYLOR is 7-0 OVER (L7G) - [vs OPP] 1000 or more travel miles





SCHEDULE STRENGTH

2019 SCHEDULE




TCUHORNED FROGSLocation: Fort Worth, TX Stadium: Amon G. Carter Stadium Head Coach: Gary Patterson - 20th season2018 Record: 7-6Returning Starters: 12 - Offense: 7 - Defense: 5Offensive Coordinator: Sonny Cumbie / Curtis LuperDefensive Coordinator: Chad Glasgow

49

2.5 / 0.5

42.02 (#60 OF 130)

8/31/19 AK-PINE BLUFF9/14/19 at Purdue9/21/19 SMU ROAD TEAMS are 4-2 SU & 6-0 ATS in L6 games of SMU-TCU series9/28/19 KANSAS KANSAS is 4-6 SU but 8-2 ATS vs. TCU since 199510/5/19 at Iowa St UNDER the total is 5-1 in L6 games of ISU-TCU series10/19/19 at Kansas St ROAD TEAMS are 4-0 ATS in L4 games of TCU-KSU series10/26/19 TEXAS UNDER the total is 6-1 in L7 games of TEX-TCU series11/2/19 at Oklahoma St UNDERDOGS are 4-0 SU & ATS in L4 games of OKS-TCU series11/9/19 BAYLOR TCU is 8-4 SU & 10-2 ATS vs. BAYLOR since 199511/16/19 at Texas Tech TEXAS TECH is 4-2 SU & 5-1 ATS in its L6 games hosting TCU11/23/19 at Oklahoma UNDER the total is 5-0 in L5 games of TCU-OKL series at OKLAHOMA11/29/19 WEST VIRGINIA HOME TEAMS are 5-1 SU & ATS in L6 games of TCU-WVU series

9/1/18 SOUTHERN 55-7 W -50 L 58.5 O9/7/18 at SMU 42-12 W -23.5 W 59 U9/15/18 vs. Ohio St 28-40 L 12 T 60 O9/22/18 at Texas 16-31 L -2.5 L 50 U9/29/18 IOWA ST 17-14 W -11.5 L 45 U10/11/18 TEXAS TECH 14-17 L -7.5 L 57.5 U10/20/18 OKLAHOMA 27-52 L 8.5 L 61 O10/27/18 at Kansas 26-27 L -13 L 47 O11/3/18 KANSAS ST 14-13 W -10 L 43.5 U11/10/18 at West Virginia 10-47 L 13 L 55 O11/17/18 at Baylor 16-9 W -1 W 49 U11/24/18 OKLAHOMA ST 31-24 W 6 W 54.5 O12/26/18 vs. California 10-7 W -2.5 W 38.5 U

Since nobody is sure if the Frogs have found a QB, getting bowl-eligible might be as hard as last season, when Gary Patterson needed a Houdini act to win three of his last four to merely get to six wins. (Which really was a neat trick, considering TCU was effectively minus a QB and might as well have been using the single wing last November). To say offense was a problem for the Frogs in 2018 would be an understatement, considering they scored 17 points or fewer in over half (seven) of their games. Unsurprisingly, TCU ranked 107th nationally in scoring even after piling up 97 points in the first two tilts vs. outmanned Southern U and SMU. No one blocked the door in the offseason when erratic QB Shawn Robinson decided to transfer to Missouri, but the best Patterson and o.c Sonny Cumbie might be able to do in the fall is Kansas State transfer Alex Delton (when was the last time a transfer QB from K-State played anywhere?), who started a handful of games for Bill Snyder, and has rushed for almost as many yards (868) as he has passed (1,202) in his college career.

Maybe not the type to ignite the Frog aerial show. Meanwhile, though Chad Glasgow’s stop unit isn’t likely to get run over this fall, it did lose more than 400 tackles with the departures of LBs Ty Summers and Arrico Evans, and a four-year starter at safety in Niko Small. As it’s an odd-numbered year, TCU will play five conference games on the road, compared to just four at home, and getting to 8 wins looks to be asking a bit much in Fort Worth.

UNDER 7.5FANDUEL




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TCUHORNED FROGS




2018 47.5 17.9 2.29 -7.3 5 31.3 6.51 14.28 6 13.4 4.22 22.142017 59.5 30.1 2.65 -19.7 10 37 7.02 13.08 7 6.9 4.37 41.852016 47.5 20.1 2.5 -7.1 3-QB 36.2 7.25 15.42 8 16 4.75 23.222015 60.5 29.2 3.29 -17.1 10 43.4 7.88 14.88 5-DC 14.2 4.59 24.8

• TCU is 8-2 ATS (L10G) - VS BAYLOR

• TCU is 0-6-1 ATS (L7G) - Before playing TEXAS

• TCU is 7-0 UNDER (L7G) on ROAD - On grass field





SCHEDULE STRENGTH

2019 SCHEDULE




WEST VIRGINIAMOUNTAINEERSLocation: Morgantown, WV Stadium: Mountaineer Field at Milan Puskar Stadium Head Coach: Neal Brown - 1st season2018 Record: 8-4Returning Starters: 9 - Offense: 3 - Defense: 6Offensive Coordinator: Matt Moore / Chad Scott *Defensive Coordinator: Vic Koenning

47

3.5 / 0.25

48.1 (#12 OF 130)

8/31/19 JAMES MADISON9/7/19 at Missouri WEST VIRGINIA is 3-1 SU & 4-0 ATS in its L4 games vs. MISSOURI9/14/19 NC STATE9/21/19 at Kansas ROAD TEAMS are 2-4 SU but 5-1 ATS in L6 games of WVU-KAN series10/5/19 TEXAS ROAD TEAMS are 4-0 SU & ATS in L4 games of TEX-WVU series10/12/19 IOWA ST FAVORITES are 5-2 SU & ATS in L7 games of WVU-ISU series10/19/19 at Oklahoma OVER the total is 5-0 in L5 games of WVU-OKL series10/31/19 at Baylor HOME TEAMS are 6-1 SU & ATS in L7 games of WVU-BAY series11/9/19 TEXAS TECH ROAD TEAMS are 5-2 SU & ATS in L7 games of WVU-TT series11/16/19 at Kansas St UNDER the total is 7-0 in L7 games of WVU-KSU series11/23/19 OKLAHOMA ST OKLAHOMA ST is 4-0 SU & ATS in its L4 games vs. WEST VIRGINIA11/29/19 at TCU HOME TEAMS are 5-1 SU & ATS in L6 games of TCU-WVU series

9/1/18 vs. Tennessee 40-14 W -10 W 59.5 U9/8/18 YOUNGSTOWN ST 52-17 W -30.5 W 63.5 O9/22/18 KANSAS ST 35-6 W -15 W 61.5 U9/29/18 at Texas Tech 42-34 W -3.5 W 75.5 O10/6/18 KANSAS 38-22 W -27.5 L 63.5 U10/13/18 at Iowa St 14-30 L -4.5 L 55.5 U10/25/18 BAYLOR 58-14 W -14.5 W 67 O11/3/18 at Texas 42-41 W 1 W 57.5 O11/10/18 TCU 47-10 W -13 W 55 O11/17/18 at Oklahoma St 41-45 L -6 L 73 O11/23/18 OKLAHOMA 56-59 L 3 T 87 O12/28/18 vs. Syracuse 18-34 L 3 L 66.5 U

On the surface it would appear as if Brown might have a bit of a bumpy ride in his first spin around the track at Morgantown after the graduation of most of last year’s prolific Holgorsen WVU offense. That would include record-setting QB Will Grier (37 TDP in 2018; 3rd-round pick of the Panthers in April’s NFL Draft) and top receivers David Sills V (Bills camp this summer) and Gary Jennings (Seahawks 4th-round pick in April). Brown is hoping that either Oklahoma transfer Austin Kendall, who was shuffled behind Heisman winners Baker Mayfield and Kyler Murray in Norman, or former Miami transfer Jack Allison, who held his own in the Camping World Bowl vs. Syracuse (a game Grier bypassed), can pick up the baton, but neither separated from the other in spring. There are also some major holes to fill on the OL now minus star T Yodny Cajuste, a 3rd-round pick of the Patriots in April. At the outset, Brown might have to lean on the infantry a bit more with all of last year’s top runners including Kennedy McKoy, who gained 802 YR in 2018, and Martell Pettaway

(who added another 623 YR), still in the fold. Whatever, don’t expect another 40 ppg showing for the O as last season. Meanwhile vet DC Vic Koenning will be abandoning the 3-3-5 “stack” looks of the Holgorsen defense with more of a 4-2-5 alignment featuring various hybrid players disguising themselves in differing roles. But Brown and Koenning were forced to mine the juco ranks for replacements up front after the line and LB spots were hit hard by graduation.

PUSH 5FANDUEL




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WEST VIRGINIAMOUNTAINEERS




2018 57 32.7 3.42 -14 7-QB 50.1 8.48 12.24 5 17.4 5.06 20.182017 47 18.4 2 -9.2 5-QB, OC 39.9 7.54 14.03 3 21.6 5.55 18.522016 53.5 25.1 2.9 -12 8- OC 38.1 7.77 15.61 3 12.9 4.87 29.042015 54 25.7 2.09 -11.9 6-QB 36.9 6.69 14.63 9 11.1 4.6 30.5

• WEST VIRGINIA is 6-1 ATS (L7G) at HOME - [vs OPP] After a close SU loss 3 points or less

• WEST VIRGINIA is 2-8 ATS (L10G) on ROAD - Revenging a loss

• WEST VIRGINIA is 7-0 UNDER (L7G) - VS KANSAS ST





SCHEDULE STRENGTH

2019 SCHEDULE




TEXAS TECHRED RAIDERSLocation: Lubbock, TX Stadium: Jones AT&T Stadium Head Coach: Matt Wells - 1st season2018 Record: 5-7Returning Starters: 13 - Offense: 7 QB - Defense: 6Offensive Coordinator: David Yost *Defensive Coordinator: Keith Patterson *

47

3.75 / -0.25

43.98 (#47 OF 130)

8/31/19 MONTANA ST9/7/19 UTEP HOME TEAMS are 3-2 SU & 4-1 ATS in L5 games of TT-UTEP series9/14/19 at Arizona9/28/19 at Oklahoma HOME TEAMS are 3-4 SU but 7-0 ATS in L7 games of TT-OKL series10/5/19 OKLAHOMA ST ROAD TEAMS are 7-3 SU & 8-2 ATS in TT-OKS series since 200910/12/19 at Baylor TEXAS TECH is 6-0 SU & ATS in its L6 games at BAYLOR10/19/19 IOWA ST HOME TEAMS are 10-5 SU & 9-6 ATS in ISU-TT series since 199810/26/19 at Kansas FAVORITES are 10-0 SU & 8-2 ATS in TT-KAN series since 200811/9/19 at West Virginia ROAD TEAMS are 5-2 SU & ATS in L7 games of WVU-TT series11/16/19 TCU TEXAS TECH is 4-2 SU & 5-1 ATS in its L6 games hosting TCU11/23/19 KANSAS ST OVER the total is 6-0 in L6 games of KSU-TT series at TEXAS TECH11/29/19 at Texas ROAD TEAMS are 6-0 SU & ATS in L6 games of TT-TEX series

9/1/18 vs. Ole Miss 27-47 L 2.5 L 72 O9/8/18 LAMAR 77-0 W -48.5 W 74 O9/15/18 HOUSTON 63-49 W -2 W 68.5 O9/22/18 at Oklahoma St 41-17 W 14.5 W 77 U9/29/18 WEST VIRGINIA 34-42 L 3.5 L 75.5 O10/11/18 at TCU 17-14 W 7.5 W 57.5 U10/20/18 KANSAS 48-16 W -18.5 W 59 O10/27/18 at Iowa St 31-40 L 6 L 58.5 O11/3/18 OKLAHOMA 46-51 L 14 W 77.5 O11/10/18 TEXAS 34-41 L 2 L 62.5 O11/17/18 at Kansas St 6-21 L -6.5 L 55.5 U11/24/18 vs. Baylor 24-35 L -7 L 61.5 U

Red Raider backers aren’t too worried about the offense sagging post-Kliff Kingsbury, as the new HC Matt Wells saw his Utah State attack score a robust 47 ppg last season (10 ppg more than Kingsbury’s Tech). Wells and his OC from Logan, David Yost, will not change from the Kingsbury spread, though Big 12 sources expect the Wells version to do a bit more with the run game, and slowly begin to scheme more with the infantry. Wells has a pair of QB with differing skill sets, and might use both, with passer Alan Bowman having completed better than 69 percent last season, though he missed four games entirely due to a collapsed lung. Jett Duffey, who led Tech in rushing last season, is still around as a valuable change-of-pace option. Veteran targets Seth Collins and T.J. Vasher combined for 86 pass receptions last season when neither was the first aerial option, and the all-apostrophe RB corp of Da’Leon Ward and Ta’Zhawn Henry should have more opportunities to run downhill this fall. Four starters are back along a deep, experienced OL that is right down the alley of Wells, who likes to rotate along his forward wall. Meanwhile, the D might benefit from the fact Wells is likely to have the offense play a gear or two slower, and run the ball a bit more, moving the clock and somewhat limiting

possessions. Which itself should help the stop unit post some better numbers after former DC David Gibbs found himself in track meets every week. New DC Keith Patterson (over with Wells from Logan) will use an aggressive scheme that will rely upon different coverages with the ability to pressure the opposition. That disruptive bent helped Patterson’s Utags force a BCS-best 32 turnovers a year ago and could come in handy in Lubbock. Tech could hit Big 12 action at 3-0, and the Red Raiders will be for-sure underdogs only vs. Texas and Oklahoma in league play.

OVER 6.5FANDUEL




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TEXAS TECHRED RAIDERS


Points Per Game 33.9 99Yards Per Point 14 733rd Down Conv. % 40.3% 76Total Yards Per Game 473.2 119Yards Per Play 6.1 104Rush Yards Per Game 165.9 65Yards Per Rush Attempt 4.3 60Completion % 58.7% 61Passing Yards Per Game 307.3 130Yards Per Pass Attempt 8.4 106Sacks 2.4 47Turnovers 1.3 92


2018 49.5 22.4 1.86 -12.1 6-OC 42.4 7.03 13.44 10 19.9 5.17 19.562017 48 20.9 2.74 -6.2 8-QB 39.6 7.56 14.41 6 18.7 4.82 19.692016 44.5 14.6 1.29 -1.6 6 45.4 7.52 14.37 6 30.8 6.23 15.882015 47 22 2.76 -7.5 9 49.8 8.54 14.32 8 27.8 5.78 16.8

• TEXAS TECH is 6-0-1 ATS (L7G) at HOME - Nonconference VS NON-POWER 5

• TEXAS TECH is 0-10 ATS (L10G) at HOME - as AP top 25

• TEXAS TECH is 10-0 OVER (L10G) on ROAD - as AP top 25





SCHEDULE STRENGTH

2019 SCHEDULE




KANSAS STWILDCATSLocation: Manhattan, KS Stadium: Bill Snyder Family Football Stadium Head Coach: Chris Klieman - 1st season2018 Record: 5-7Returning Starters: 14 - Offense: 6 QB - Defense: 8Offensive Coordinator: Courtney Messingham *Defensive Coordinator: Scottie Hazelton *

44.5

2.75 / 0.25

45.6 (#33 OF 130)

8/31/19 NICHOLLS ST9/7/19 BOWLING GREEN9/14/19 at Mississippi St9/28/19 at Oklahoma St OVER the total is 6-0 in L6 games of KSU-OKS series at OKLAHOMA ST10/5/19 BAYLOR UNDERDOGS are 4-8 SU but 10-2 ATS in BAY-KSU series since 200310/19/19 TCU ROAD TEAMS are 4-0 ATS in L4 games of TCU-KSU series10/26/19 OKLAHOMA OVER the total is 6-0 in L6 games of OKL-KSU series at KANSAS ST11/2/19 at Kansas FAVORITES are 20-3 SU & 17-6 ATS in KSU-KAN series since 199611/9/19 at Texas HOME TEAMS are 6-2 SU & 8-0 ATS in L8 games of TEX-KSU series11/16/19 WEST VIRGINIA UNDER the total is 7-0 in L7 games of WVU-KSU series11/23/19 at Texas Tech OVER the total is 6-0 in L6 games of KSU-TT series at TEXAS TECH11/30/19 IOWA ST UNDERDOGS are 2-10 SU but 8-2 ATS in ISU-KSU series since 2007

9/1/18 S DAKOTA 27-24 W -23.5 L 64.5 U9/8/18 MISSISSIPPI ST 10-31 L 6.5 L 51.5 U9/15/18 TX-SAN ANTONIO 41-17 W -20 W 46.5 O9/22/18 at West Virginia 6-35 L 15 L 61.5 U9/29/18 TEXAS 14-19 L 8.5 W 48.5 U10/6/18 at Baylor 34-37 L 3.5 W 54.5 O10/13/18 OKLAHOMA ST 31-12 W 8 W 62.5 U10/27/18 at Oklahoma 14-51 L 23.5 L 64.5 O11/3/18 at TCU 13-14 L 10 W 43.5 U11/10/18 KANSAS 21-17 W -10 L 45.5 U11/17/18 TEXAS TECH 21-6 W 6.5 W 55.5 U11/24/18 at Iowa St 38-42 L 10.5 W 42 O

Picking up the baton from legendary Bill Snyder, who finally hung ‘em up after 2018, is Chris Klieman, most recently winning national titles in the FCS ranks at North Dakota State. Klieman knows about following a legend as Craig Bohl had won back-to-back FCS titles with the Bison before Klieman took over in 2014, and darned if he didn’t do the same thing in four of his five seasons in charge at Fargo. He is not, however, inheriting a powerhouse at Manhattan, as the Cats sagged to below .500 (5-7) a year ago. (Nor is he inheriting a QB like Carson Wentz, who led the earlier Klieman/NDSU editions.) And NDSU didn’t have to worry about facing Oklahoma or Texas the past few years, either. Kleiman’s first order of business in spring was to reboot an attack that ranked 111th in scoring (mere 22.5 ppg) and 114th overall (345 ypg) last season. The offense lost its top four RBs from 2018, including the jarring Alex Barnes (1356 YR), so it appears a proper time to open up the strike force. But we’ll see, as at NDSU, Klieman was running a variation of

the Bohl offense, heavy on between-the-tackle runs, and has brought along his OC from the Bison, Courtney Messingham. Some Big 12 observers like holdover QB Skylar Thompson, but are unsure about a defense that was uncharacteristically pliable in Snyder’s last season. Unless Klieman pulls an upset in non-league play at Mississippi State (which romped 31-10 at Manhattan last September), hard to see K-State getting beyond five wins.

UNDER 5.5FANDUEL




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KANSAS STWILDCATS

Points Per Game 22.1 108Yards Per Point 15.3 82Plays Per Game 68.4 95Time of Possession 31:18 343rd Down Conv. % 37.6% 76Total Yards Per Game 338.9 114Yards Per Play 5 105Rush Attempts Per Game 41.8 28Rush Yards Per Game 175.9 50Yards Per Rush Attempt 4.2 73Pass Attempts Per Game 23.8 116Completion % 58.4% 76Passing Yards Per Game 163 113Yards Per Pass Attempt 6.8 92Turnovers 1.2 29

Points Per Game 25.5 48Yards Per Point 16.1 263rd Down Conv. % 47.0% 120Total Yards Per Game 410.1 73Yards Per Play 6 98Rush Yards Per Game 165.4 64Yards Per Rush Attempt 5 97Completion % 62.8% 95Passing Yards Per Game 244.7 84Yards Per Pass Attempt 7.3 65Sacks 1.5 111Turnovers 1.7 35


2018 47.5 14.1 1 0 8-QB, OC 30.1 6.15 13.57 5-DC 16 5.15 21.812017 52.5 21.3 2.1 -9.7 8 36.8 7.16 11.7 6 15.6 5.06 24.212016 54 24.3 1.38 -14 5-QB 36.3 6.48 12.21 7 12 5.1 28.362015 46.5 15.1 0.36 -2.3 6-QB 33.7 5.71 11.69 6 18.6 5.35 20.91

• KANSAS ST is 9-1 ATS (L10G) - After a blowout SU loss 20 points or more

• KANSAS ST is 1-6 ATS (L7G) - Before playing TEXAS

• KANSAS ST is 7-0 UNDER (L7G) - VS WEST VIRGINIA





SCHEDULE STRENGTH

2019 SCHEDULE




KANSASJAYHAWKSLocation: Lawrence, KS Stadium: David Booth Kansas Memorial Stadium Head Coach: Les Miles - 1st season2018 Record: 3-9Returning Starters: 10 - Offense: 5 - Defense: 5Offensive Coordinator: Les Koenning *Defensive Coordinator: DJ Eliot *

30.5

2.5 / -0.5

46.23 (#28 OF 130)

8/31/19 INDIANA ST9/7/19 COASTAL CAROLINA9/13/19 at Boston College9/21/19 WEST VIRGINIA ROAD TEAMS are 2-4 SU but 5-1 ATS in L6 games of WVU-KAN series9/28/19 at TCU KANSAS is 4-6 SU but 8-2 ATS vs. TCU since 199510/5/19 OKLAHOMA ROAD TEAMS are 12-8 ATS in OKL-KAN series since 199210/19/19 at Texas HOME TEAMS are 8-6 SU & 10-4 ATS in KAN-TEX series since 200010/26/19 TEXAS TECH FAVORITES are 10-0 SU & 8-2 ATS in TT-KAN series since 200811/2/19 KANSAS ST FAVORITES are 20-3 SU & 17-6 ATS in KSU-KAN series since 199611/16/19 at Oklahoma St OKLAHOMA ST is 14-3 SU & ATS vs. KANSAS since 199411/23/19 at Iowa St UNDER the total is 5-0 in L5 games of ISU-KAN series at IOWA ST11/30/19 BAYLOR FAVORITES are 7-0 SU & ATS in L7 games of BAY-KAN series

9/1/18 NICHOLLS ST 23-26 L -9 L 57 U9/8/18 at C Michigan 31-7 W 3 W 48 U9/15/18 RUTGERS 55-14 W 1 W 44.5 O9/22/18 at Baylor 7-26 L 7.5 L 54.5 U9/29/18 OKLAHOMA ST 28-48 L 17 L 55.5 O10/6/18 at West Virginia 22-38 L 27.5 W 63.5 U10/20/18 at Texas Tech 16-48 L 18.5 L 59 O10/27/18 TCU 27-26 W 13 W 47 O11/3/18 IOWA ST 3-27 L 18 L 46 U11/10/18 at Kansas St 17-21 L 10 W 45.5 U11/17/18 at Oklahoma 40-55 L 35 W 68 O11/23/18 TEXAS 17-24 L 15 W 51 U

Reactions have run the gamut in the region about KU’s wisdom of hiring a 65-year-old coach. Les Miles, who has been out of the mix the past two seasons after being jettisoned early in 2016 campaign in Baton Rouge. It is not lost upon us the opinion of one of our radio contacts in the SEC region who once described Miles as “John L. Smith with players” when analyzing his tenure at LSU. We remain a bit skeptical about this hire in Lawrence, too. But matching last year’s 3 wins looks do-able. Before he was pushed out at LSU, Miles recruited 6-5 QB Thomas MacVittie, who would ink instead with Pitt before starring in the juco ranks. A pro-style QB, MacVittie will hopefully ignite an offense that ranked a lowly 106th in scoring (23.8 ppg) and 110th overall (351 ypg) in 2018. There is some quality in the backfield with all of last year’s top RBs still in the fold, including Pooka Williams, Jr., the 2018 Big 12 Frosh of the Year when he gained 1125 YR LY. (An off-field incident will result in a one-game suspension for Pooka in the opener vs. Indiana State). It is hoped that ex-Bama transfer WR Daylon Charlot will emerge as

MacVittie’s top target after disappointing in 2018, though he did feature in spring work. On the other side, last year’s defense wasn’t as bad as some recent KU editions, and the Jayhawks kept playing hard for David Beaty even when he became a lame-duck last November. Anything beyond three wins will be gravy in Lawrence, where the fan base has been patient for a decade and is willing to wait a couple of more years before any possible payoff with Miles.

PUSH 3FANDUEL




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KANSASJAYHAWKS

Points Per Game 23.9 95Yards Per Point 15 78Plays Per Game 69.8 85Time of Possession 30:13 573rd Down Conv. % 39.3% 62Total Yards Per Game 359.5 100Yards Per Play 5.1 92Rush Attempts Per Game 35.5 97Rush Yards Per Game 167.9 62Yards Per Rush Attempt 4.7 42Pass Attempts Per Game 32.2 59Completion % 58.8% 70Passing Yards Per Game 191.6 98Yards Per Pass Attempt 6 118Turnovers 0.9 8



2018 39 10.2 0.81 6.5 9-QB 31.3 6.07 13.18 10 21.1 5.26 17.242017 24 -6.9 0.17 15.2 8- OC 24.6 5.65 16.26 5 31.6 5.48 12.632016 28.5 -0.7 0.62 14.2 8 25.6 5.86 16.59 8 26.3 5.24 15.042015 Yes 19 -11.3 -0.4 19.7 4- OC 20.9 5.48 19.56 3 32.2 5.88 14.74

• KANSAS is 6-1 ATS (L7G) - VS TCU

• KANSAS is 1-14 ATS (L15G) on ROAD - [vs OPP] More than 6 days rest

• KANSAS is 7-0 UNDER (L7G) - Before playing KANSAS ST



BIG TENCONFERENCE PREVIEW


EAST DIVISIONMICHIGAN 63 3.75 0.25 46.92 20 9.9 2.1 7.3 1.7OHIO ST 61 3.75 0.5 46.02 31 9.8 2.2 6.9 2.1PENN ST 57 4.25 0.5 44.06 46 8.8 3.2 6.0 3.0MICHIGAN ST 54.5 2.75 -0.5 47.15 19 8.0 4.0 5.4 3.6INDIANA 46.5 3 0 42.40 58 6.4 5.6 3.5 5.5MARYLAND 43.5 2 0 46.58 24 4.6 7.4 2.7 6.3RUTGERS 32.5 2.25 -1 47.17 18 2.6 9.4 0.9 8.1

WEST DIVISIONWISCONSIN 55.5 3 0.75 45.13 41 8.5 3.5 5.7 3.3IOWA 52.5 4 0.25 45.04 42 7.8 4.2 5.5 3.5MINNESOTA 49.5 2.75 0 45.33 38 7.3 4.7 5.2 3.8NEBRASKA 49 2 -0.5 45.27 40 6.9 5.1 4.5 4.5PURDUE 45.5 2.75 0.75 46.79 21 5.6 6.4 3.9 5.1NORTHWESTERN 46 3.25 0.5 45.54 34 5.8 6.2 3.6 5.4ILLINOIS 38 2.75 -0.5 43.35 52 4.5 7.5 2.0 7.0



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GAMEEAST DIVISION CHAMPION MICHIGAN OHIO

STATE MICHIGAN MICHIGAN OHIO STATE

OHIO STATE MICHIGAN MICHIGAN

WEST DIVISION CHAMPION NWSTERN NEBRASKA WISCONSIN MINNESOTA WISCONSIN NEBRASKA WISCONSIN WISCONSIN

BIG TEN CHAMPIONSHIP MICHIGAN OHIO

STATE MICHIGAN MICHIGAN OHIO STATE

OHIO STATE MICHIGAN MICHIGAN

WRITTEN BY MATT YOUMANS - @MATTYOUMANS247


Ohio State and NebraskaChange is in the air in the Big Ten, a conference desperate to return to the College Football Playoff. Urban Meyer, who won the 2014 national championship, is history. Meyer’s final season in Columbus was riddled with more drama than a TV show about housewives, but he’ll be missed. How much he will be missed is up to Ryan Day, who has a tough act to follow on the field. Ohio State won 13 games, including the Rose Bowl, to wrap the Meyer era. He went 7-0 against Michigan. The Buckeyes remain loaded and Day’s new quarterback is ultra-talented Justin Fields, a Georgia transfer. Day will feel the heat from Jim Harbaugh breathing down his neck. Led by senior quarterback Shea Patterson, the Wolverines see this as their best shot at a breakthrough. The Buckeyes must visit Ann Arbor on Nov. 30. Entering his fifth year, Harbaugh is 1-9 versus Top 10 teams and 0-4 against Ohio State. Not far behind is Michigan State as the third-best team in the East. Look to play the Spartans Over 7½ as the best bet of any win total in the Big Ten. The West is wide open with six teams in the hunt. Nebraska is the pick by a narrow margin. In coach Scott Frost’s second year, the Cornhuskers return dual-threat QB Adrian Martinez and their schedule is favorable with Ohio State, Northwestern, Wisconsin and Iowa set to visit Lincoln.

Minnesota and PurdueJeff Brohm and P.J. Fleck entered the league at the same time and both aggressive, young coaches are ready to climb the conference ladder. Brohm is 13-13 straight up (15-11 against the spread) in two years with the Boilermakers, who run a wide-open offense featuring fast-and-furious wideout Rondale Moore. As a freshman, Moore made 114 receptions. Purdue pulled off last year’s most significant conference upset by overwhelming Ohio State 49-20 as a 12-point home ‘dog. Fleck (12-13 straight up) has 16 starters returning, and the Golden Gophers get to host Nebraska and Wisconsin this year.

RutgersScarlet Knights quarterbacks have totaled a paltry 12 TD passes in the past 24 games. Artur Sitkowski, who returns as the starter, threw for four touchdowns and 18 interceptions last year as a freshman. Rutgers still seems to be a step behind the league’s other basement dwellers, Illinois and Maryland.

2019 BIG TEN CONFERENCE PREVIEW

THE FAVORITES

LIVE DOGS

DEAD MONEY

BIG GAMES ON THE BOARDMichigan at Wisconsin, Sept. 21The Wolverines will open with two easy wins and a bye before going to Madison. This is the first big test in Jim Harbaugh’s so-called make-or-break year. Michigan blasted the Badgers 38-13 last year.

Ohio State at Nebraska, Sept. 28The favorites in each division meet in Lincoln, where the Cornhuskers will be hungry ‘dogs. The Buckeyes were blown out on the road one time in each of the past two seasons, by 29 at Purdue last year and by 31 at Iowa in 2017.

Ohio State at Northwestern, Oct. 18Under the Friday night lights in Evanston, the Wildcats and quarterback Hunter Johnson, a Clemson transfer, will take their best shot at the Buckeyes. When the teams met here in 2013, the result was a historic bad beat for ‘dog bettors when the purple ‘Cats fumbled into the end zone as time expired.

Notre Dame at Michigan, Oct. 26Harbaugh was outcoached by Brian Kelly in the

2018 opener, a 24-17 win for the Fighting Irish in South Bend. The home team has won five in a row in this rivalry.

Nebraska at Purdue, Nov. 2Scott Frost and the Cornhuskers face two key road games in the West division, this one in West Lafayette and a trip to Minnesota in October. The Boilermakers were 3½-point favorites in a 42-28 win at Nebraska last year.

Michigan State at Michigan, Nov. 16Mark Dantonio is 2-2 against Harbaugh. What’s interesting is the home team has lost four straight in this series. Michigan has the advantage of a bye week before hosting the Spartans.

Ohio State at Michigan, Nov. 30In a humiliating loss for Harbaugh, the Buckeyes dropped a 62-point bomb on Michigan’s defense last year. The Wolverines have dropped 14 of the past 15 in the game that means everything. But Urban Meyer is gone.




SCHEDULE STRENGTH

2019 SCHEDULE




2019 BIG TEN CONFERENCE EAST DIVISION

MICHIGANWOLVERINESLocation: Ann Arbor, MI Stadium: Michigan Stadium Head Coach: Jim Harbaugh - 5th season2018 Record: 10-3Returning Starters: 13 - Offense: 8 QB - Defense: 5Offensive Coordinator: Josh Gattis *Defensive Coordinator: Don Brown

63

3.75 / 0.25

46.92 (#20 OF 130)

8/31/19 MIDDLE TENN ST9/7/19 ARMY9/21/19 at Wisconsin WISCONSIN is 4-1 SU & 5-0 ATS in its L5 games hosting MICHIGAN9/28/19 RUTGERS OVER the total is 5-0 in L5 games of RUT-MIC series10/5/19 IOWA UNDERDOGS are 5-11 SU but 13-3 ATS in IOW-MIC series since 199310/12/19 at Illinois ROAD TEAMS are 10-8 SU & 11-6 ATS in ILL-MIC series since 199210/19/19 at Penn St FAVORITES are 5-0 SU & ATS in L5 games of MIC-PSU series10/26/19 NOTRE DAME HOME TEAMS are 6-0 SU & ATS in L6 games of ND-MIC series11/2/19 at Maryland FAVORITES are 4-0 SU & ATS in L4 games of MIC-MD series11/16/19 MICHIGAN ST MICHIGAN ST is 4-1 SU & 5-0 ATS in its L5 games at MICHIGAN11/23/19 at Indiana ROAD TEAMS are 8-11 SU but 11-6 ATS in MIC-IND series since 199211/30/19 OHIO ST OVER the total is 6-0 in L6 games of MIC-OSU series

9/1/18 at Notre Dame 17-24 L -3 L 48.5 U9/8/18 W MICHIGAN 49-3 W -27.5 W 56 U9/15/18 SMU 45-20 W -36.5 L 55 O9/22/18 NEBRASKA 56-10 W -18 W 52.5 O9/29/18 at Northwestern 20-17 W -14.5 L 46.5 U10/6/18 MARYLAND 42-21 W -17.5 W 44.5 O10/13/18 WISCONSIN 38-13 W -9.5 W 46.5 O10/20/18 at Michigan St 21-7 W -7.5 W 38.5 U11/3/18 PENN ST 42-7 W -12.5 W 49 T11/10/18 at Rutgers 42-7 W -37 L 45 O11/17/18 INDIANA 31-20 W -28 L 53 U11/24/18 at Ohio St 39-62 L -4 L 51 O12/29/18 vs. Florida 15-41 L -4 L 51 O

The time is now for Jim Harbaugh. That was said last year, too, but this time it’s serious. Senior quarterback Shea Patterson returns with seven other offensive starters. Patterson, who passed for 22 touchdowns with seven picks last year, will operate out of the shotgun in a no-huddle offense featuring elite receivers and arguably the league’s top line. Harbaugh has been too conservative and that seems to be changing. Defensive coordinator Don Brown has five starters back from what was the nation’s top “D” until the season ended with blowout losses to Ohio State and Florida. The Buckeyes dropped a 62-point bomb on the Wolverines in the low point of Harbaugh’s four years. That should serve as motivation. Michigan finished 10-3 and should at least equal that win total this season. The Wolverines must

navigate road trips to Wisconsin and Penn State, but they get Notre Dame, Michigan State and Ohio State in Ann Arbor. Several signs point to Michigan finally winning the East, but Harbaugh has to prove he can beat the Buckeyes. While the Wolverines’ win total is 10 at some books, the better bet is laying -175 to go Over 9½ at PointsBet.

OVER 9.5POINTSBET

MATT YOUMANS’ SEASON WIN TOTAL PREDICTION


TOP TRENDS FOR 2019







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MICHIGANWOLVERINES




2018 61 36.5 3.55 -25.2 8-QB 46.2 7.34 10.99 9 9.7 3.79 23.422017 54.5 23.9 2.51 -13.2 4 34.7 6.36 12.18 1 10.8 3.85 21.442016 66 46 3.67 -25.5 8-QB 51.6 7.17 10.07 6-DC 5.6 3.5 39.092015 Yes 54.5 28 2.55 -14.8 8-QB, OC 38.2 6.45 11.65 7-DC 10.2 3.89 24.28

• MICHIGAN is 6-1 ATS (L7G) at HOME - VS INDEPENDENTS

• MICHIGAN is 1-9 ATS (L10G) on ROAD - VS lower ranked team

• MICHIGAN is 7-0 OVER (L7G) - Revenging a loss vs - OHIO ST





SCHEDULE STRENGTH

2019 SCHEDULE




OHIO STBUCKEYESLocation: Columbus, OH Stadium: Ohio Stadium Head Coach: Ryan Day - 1st season2018 Record: 13-1Returning Starters: 13 - Offense: 4 - Defense: 9Offensive Coordinator: Kevin Wilson / Mike YurcichDefensive Coordinator: Jeff Hafley / Greg Mattison *

61

3.75 / 0.5

46.02 (#31 OF 130)

8/31/19 FLA ATLANTIC9/7/19 CINCINNATI HOME TEAMS are 4-1 SU & 4-0 ATS in L5 games of OSU-CIN series9/14/19 at Indiana ROAD TEAMS are 9-11 SU but 14-6 ATS in IND-OSU series since 19959/21/19 MIAMI OHIO HOME TEAMS are 3-0 SU & ATS in L3 games of OSU-MOH series9/28/19 at Nebraska OHIO ST is 4-1 SU & ATS in its L5 games vs. NEBRASKA10/5/19 MICHIGAN ST ROAD TEAMS are 13-7 SU & 15-5 ATS in OSU-MST series since 199210/18/19 at Northwestern FAVORITES are 7-0 SU & 6-1 ATS in L7 games of OSU-NW series10/26/19 WISCONSIN UNDERDOGS are 14-6 ATS in WIS-OSU series since 199211/9/19 MARYLAND OVER the total is 5-0 in L5 games of MD-OSU series11/16/19 at Rutgers FAVORITES are 5-0 SU & ATS in L5 games of OSU-RUT series11/23/19 PENN ST HOME TEAMS are 13-9 SU & 16-6 ATS in PSU-OSU series since 199711/30/19 at Michigan OVER the total is 6-0 in L6 games of MIC-OSU series

9/1/18 OREGON ST 77-31 W -39 W 62 O9/8/18 RUTGERS 52-3 W -34 W 57.5 U9/15/18 vs. TCU 40-28 W -12 T 60 O9/22/18 TULANE 49-6 W -38 W 66 U9/29/18 at Penn St 27-26 W -3.5 L 69.5 U10/6/18 INDIANA 49-26 W -27.5 L 64.5 O10/13/18 MINNESOTA 30-14 W -29 L 61 U10/20/18 at Purdue 20-49 L -12.5 L 66 O11/3/18 NEBRASKA 36-31 W -17 L 75.5 U11/10/18 at Michigan St 26-6 W -3 W 49 U11/17/18 at Maryland 52-51 W -14 L 61.5 O11/24/18 MICHIGAN 62-39 W 4 W 51 O12/1/18 vs. Northwestern 45-24 W -16.5 W 63 O1/1/19 vs. Washington 28-23 W -4.5 W 54.5 U

Urban Meyer walked off into the Pasadena sunset with a 13-1 season and a Rose Bowl win. His retirement will not mean the demise of the Buckeyes. New coach Ryan Day will win at nearly the same level this season. Who knows how long Day can sustain what Meyer built, but there should be no immediate decline in Columbus. Nine defensive starters return. Day’s specialty is offense, and Ohio State has its usual surplus of talent. Justin Fields, formerly the nation’s No. 2-ranked prep quarterback and a smaller version of Cam Newton, has transferred from Georgia to fill the shoes of Dwayne Haskins and J.T. Barrett before him. J.K. Dobbins returns after topping 1,000 yards rushing, and speed burner K.J. Hill leads a deep group of pass catchers. The schedule sets up well for the Buckeyes, who get Michigan State, Wisconsin

and Penn State at home. Their tricky road games are against Indiana, Nebraska, Northwestern and, of course, Michigan. The Buckeyes’ win total is 9½ (Over -165) at Circa Sports and 10½ at PointsBet. Day’s first full season as coach — he went 3-0 last year while Meyer was suspended — should produce 10 wins.

OVER 9.5CIRCA




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OHIO STBUCKEYES


Points Per Game 25.5 46Yards Per Point 15.8 283rd Down Conv. % 32.7% 16Total Yards Per Game 404 68Yards Per Play 5.6 64Rush Yards Per Game 158.8 57Yards Per Rush Attempt 4.6 75Completion % 55.6% 24Passing Yards Per Game 245.2 85Yards Per Pass Attempt 7 52Sacks 2.9 18Turnovers 1.6 39


2018 64 32.8 2.65 -22.1 7 52.6 7.8 12.1 5 19.8 5.15 17.742017 69 40 4.62 -26.3 8- OC 51.8 8.37 12.11 7 11.8 3.75 21.252016 66.5 47.3 3.8 -25.7 3 52.4 7.43 11.06 3 5.1 3.63 47.562015 63 32.7 3.19 -21.5 7 40.6 7.16 11.87 7 7.8 3.97 34.97

• OHIO ST is 13-2 ATS (L15G) - First game of the season

• OHIO ST is 0-7 ATS (L7G) at HOME - Before playing MICHIGAN

• OHIO ST is 8-2 UNDER (L10G) on ROAD - Underdog of 7 or less points





SCHEDULE STRENGTH

2019 SCHEDULE




PENN STNITTANY LIONSLocation: University Park, PA Stadium: Beaver Stadium Head Coach: James Franklin - 6th season2018 Record: 9-4Returning Starters: 12 - Offense: 6 - Defense: 6Offensive Coordinator: Ricky RahneDefensive Coordinator: Brent Pry / Tim Banks

57

4.25 / 0.5

44.06 (#46 OF 130)

8/31/19 IDAHO9/7/19 BUFFALO9/14/19 PITTSBURGH9/27/19 at Maryland PENN ST is 6-1 SU & 5-2 ATS in its L7 games vs. MARYLAND10/5/19 PURDUE UNDER the total is 8-2 in PSU-PUR series since 200010/12/19 at Iowa HOME TEAMS are 7-3 SU & 8-2 ATS in PSU-IOW series since 200410/19/19 MICHIGAN FAVORITES are 5-0 SU & ATS in L5 games of MIC-PSU series10/26/19 at Michigan St OVER the total is 15-5 in PSU-MST series since 199611/9/19 at Minnesota MINNESOTA is 5-7 SU but 8-4 ATS vs. PENN ST since 199711/16/19 INDIANA HOME TEAMS are 4-5 SU but 7-1 ATS in L9 games of PSU-IND series11/23/19 at Ohio St HOME TEAMS are 13-9 SU & 16-6 ATS in PSU-OSU series since 199711/30/19 RUTGERS UNDER the total is 6-0 in L6 games of RUT-PSU series

9/1/18 APPALACHIAN ST 45-38 W -24.5 L 53.5 O9/8/18 at Pittsburgh 51-6 W -7 W 49.5 O9/15/18 KENT ST 63-10 W -35 W 64.5 O9/21/18 at Illinois 63-24 W -26.5 W 61 O9/29/18 OHIO ST 26-27 L 3.5 W 69.5 U10/13/18 MICHIGAN ST 17-21 L -13.5 L 54 U10/20/18 at Indiana 33-28 W -14 L 58 O10/27/18 IOWA 30-24 W -5 W 51 O11/3/18 at Michigan 7-42 L 12.5 L 49 T11/10/18 WISCONSIN 22-10 W -7.5 W 53.5 U11/17/18 at Rutgers 20-7 W -28 L 53 U11/24/18 MARYLAND 38-3 W -11.5 W 51.5 U1/1/19 vs. Kentucky 24-27 L -4.5 L 48 O

Recruiting is coach James Franklin’s strength. His obvious weakness is managing a game under pressure. The Nittany Lions’ season took a turn for the worse late in September when Franklin blew a home game against Ohio State. The losses are continuing. A year after stud running back Saquon Barkley took off for the NFL, the Lions said goodbye to his replacement, Miles Sanders, and the winningest quarterback in school history, Trace McSorley. Penn State returns six starters on each side of the ball, and now we find out how well Franklin has recruited. It was widely assumed veteran Tommy Stevens would take over for McSorley, but Stevens lost the top job to dual-threat sophomore Sean Clifford after spring practice and transferred. While Clifford will lead a new-look offense, defense will be the team’s

strength. Another positive is a soft early schedule. Penn State should start 5-0 (or 4-1 at worst) before hitting the road to Iowa, Michigan State, Minnesota and Ohio State. If Clifford excels, the Lions could defy cynics and win nine. But that’s a happy-go-lucky view. Even if Clifford plays well, the best-case scenario seems to be 8-4 for Franklin.

UNDER 8.5WESTGATE




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PENN STNITTANY LIONS




2018 58 29.7 3.07 -13.4 7-QB, OC 43 7.19 11.47 3 13.3 4.12 23.452017 66.5 41.1 3.55 -22.6 9 50.5 7.65 10.46 7 9.5 4.09 30.392016 60.5 30.6 3.5 -20 9-QB, OC 46.5 7.72 11.08 5-DC 15.9 4.22 19.052015 45 15 1.93 -7.7 8 31.2 6.2 12.49 7 16.3 4.27 17.9

• PENN ST is 13-2 ATS (L15G) at HOME - After a conference SU win

• PENN ST is 0-8 ATS (L8G) on ROAD - [vs OPP] AP top 5

• PENN ST is 7-0 UNDER (L7G) at HOME - After playing OHIO ST





SCHEDULE STRENGTH

2019 SCHEDULE




MICHIGAN STSPARTANSLocation: East Lansing, MI Stadium: Spartan Stadium Head Coach: Mark Dantonio - 13th season2018 Record: 7-6Returning Starters: 17 - Offense: 9 QB - Defense: 8Offensive Coordinator: Brad Salem *Defensive Coordinator: Mike Tressel

54.5

2.75 / -0.5

47.15 (#19 OF 130)

8/30/19 TULSA9/7/19 W MICHIGAN HOME TEAMS are 5-1 SU & ATS in L6 games of MST-WMU series9/14/19 ARIZONA ST9/21/19 at Northwestern ROAD TEAMS are 14-7 SU & 17-4 ATS in MST-NW series since 19929/28/19 INDIANA MICHIGAN ST is 7-0 SU & ATS in its L7 games hosting INDIANA10/5/19 at Ohio St ROAD TEAMS are 13-7 SU & 15-5 ATS in OSU-MST series since 199210/12/19 at Wisconsin UNDERDOGS are 4-1 SU & 5-0 ATS in L5 games of MST-WIS series10/26/19 PENN ST OVER the total is 15-5 in PSU-MST series since 199611/9/19 ILLINOIS FAVORITES are 9-2 SU & ATS in MST-ILL series since 199811/16/19 at Michigan MICHIGAN ST is 4-1 SU & 5-0 ATS in its L5 games at MICHIGAN11/23/19 at Rutgers UNDER the total is 5-1 in L6 games of MST-RUT series11/30/19 MARYLAND UNDER the total is 5-0 in L5 games of MD-MST series

8/31/18 UTAH ST 38-31 W -23.5 L 52.5 O9/8/18 at Arizona St 13-16 L -4.5 L 53 U9/22/18 at Indiana 35-21 W -6.5 W 52 O9/29/18 C MICHIGAN 31-20 W -27.5 L 45.5 O10/6/18 NORTHWESTERN 19-29 L -10.5 L 43.5 O10/13/18 at Penn St 21-17 W 13.5 W 54 U10/20/18 MICHIGAN 7-21 L 7.5 L 38.5 U10/27/18 PURDUE 23-13 W 2 W 49 U11/3/18 at Maryland 24-3 W -3.5 W 42 U11/10/18 OHIO ST 6-26 L 3 L 49 U11/17/18 at Nebraska 6-9 L 1 L 48 U11/24/18 RUTGERS 14-10 W -24 L 37.5 U12/31/18 vs. Oregon 6-7 L -1.5 L 47.5 U

A year ago, the Spartans’ quarterback duo of Brian Lewerke and Rocky Lombardi turned into a disaster. Michigan State scored exactly six points in each of its three losses down the stretch to finish 7-6. Lewerke was hampered by a shoulder injury that crippled the offense. When healthy the previous season, Lewerke was among the Big Ten’s best QBs, and he’s healthy again. Eight starters return for an offense that coach Mark Dantonio expects will be much improved. Dantonio’s foundation for success is defense, and the Spartans had the nation’s No. 1 rush defense (77.9 yards per game). Eight starters are back on that side, too, including dominant defensive linemen Raequan Williams and Kenny Willekes. The talent is there for Michigan State to replicate its 10-3 record from 2017, but this schedule might be

the league’s most challenging. The Spartans face road trips to Northwestern, Ohio State, Wisconsin and Michigan. Dantonio has a defense that can win on the road. Michigan State should go 7-0 at home and win at Rutgers, so Over 7½ qualifies as the best bet of any win-total play in the Big Ten this year.

OVER 7.5POINTSBET




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MICHIGAN STSPARTANS




2018 50.5 20.6 1.74 -10.5 10-QB 29.4 5.68 14.12 9 8.7 3.94 30.352017 52.5 20.7 1.98 -8.8 4-QB 31.8 6.11 14.41 5 11.1 4.13 22.782016 43 15.2 2.09 -5.2 4-QB 35.1 6.8 13.58 6 19.9 4.72 15.622015 58 27.3 1.77 -11.3 7 38.4 6.48 12.03 7-DC 11.1 4.71 26.94

• MICHIGAN ST is 7-0 ATS (L7G) at HOME - VS INDIANA

• MICHIGAN ST is 0-7 ATS (L7G) at HOME - VS lower ranked team

• MICHIGAN ST is 10-1 UNDER (L3Y) - as Non-ranked team





SCHEDULE STRENGTH

2019 SCHEDULE




INDIANAHOOSIERSLocation: Bloomington, IN Stadium: Memorial Stadium Head Coach: Tom Allen - 3rd season2018 Record: 5-7Returning Starters: 14 - Offense: 7 QB - Defense: 7Offensive Coordinator: Kalen DeBoer *Defensive Coordinator: Kane Wommack *

46.5

3 / 0

42.4 (#58 OF 130)

8/31/19 vs. Ball St BALL ST is 3-5 SU but 6-2 ATS in its L8 games vs. INDIANA9/7/19 E ILLINOIS9/14/19 OHIO ST ROAD TEAMS are 9-11 SU but 14-6 ATS in IND-OSU series since 19959/21/19 CONNECTICUT9/28/19 at Michigan St MICHIGAN ST is 7-0 SU & ATS in its L7 games hosting INDIANA10/12/19 RUTGERS HOME TEAMS are 1-3 SU but 4-0 ATS in L4 games of IND-RUT series10/19/19 at Maryland HOME TEAMS are 4-0 SU & ATS in L4 games of MD-IND series10/26/19 at Nebraska11/2/19 NORTHWESTERN HOME TEAMS are 11-3 SU & 10-4 ATS in IND-NW series since 199611/16/19 at Penn St HOME TEAMS are 4-5 SU but 7-1 ATS in L9 games of PSU-IND series11/23/19 MICHIGAN ROAD TEAMS are 8-11 SU but 11-6 ATS in MIC-IND series since 199211/30/19 at Purdue OVER the total is 5-0 in L5 games of PUR-IND series at PURDUE

9/1/18 at Fla International 38-28 W -13 L 56 O9/8/18 VIRGINIA 20-16 W -5 L 49.5 U9/15/18 BALL ST 38-10 W -15 W 61.5 U9/22/18 MICHIGAN ST 21-35 L 6.5 L 52 O9/29/18 at Rutgers 24-17 W -14.5 L 51 U10/6/18 at Ohio St 26-49 L 27.5 W 64.5 O10/13/18 IOWA 16-42 L 3.5 L 52 O10/20/18 PENN ST 28-33 L 14 W 58 O10/26/18 at Minnesota 31-38 L -2.5 L 53 O11/10/18 MARYLAND 34-32 W 1 W 55 O11/17/18 at Michigan 20-31 L 28 W 53 U11/24/18 PURDUE 21-28 L 3.5 L 65.5 U

The Hoosiers’ recruiting is on the upswing as coach Tom Allen enters his third year. After back-to-back 5-7 finishes, and with Penn State possibly taking a step back, there is an opportunity for Indiana to crack the top four in the East. There is skill-position talent with sophomore running back Stevie Scott (1,137 yards, 10 TDs) and hyped freshman Sampson James plus wideouts Donavan Hale and Nick Westbrook. Junior Peyton Ramsey is a talented quarterback, but he still must beat out redshirt freshman Michael Penix. Seven starters return for a defense that allowed 29.9 points and 424 yards per game. Allen can fix the defense. Indiana is propping up its bowl hopes with a weak nonconference lineup (Ball State, Eastern Illinois, Connecticut), and Rutgers and Maryland should be league wins. That would get the

Hoosiers to five, as usual, but the trick is getting over the hump and they will be significant underdogs at Michigan State, Nebraska, Penn State and Purdue. Indiana needs to spring an upset or two, and with Ohio State, Northwestern and Michigan as the other home games it’s tough to find the sixth win and 7-5 just looks highly unlikely.

UNDER 6.5WESTGATE




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INDIANAHOOSIERS

Points Per Game 26.4 77Yards Per Point 15.7 92Plays Per Game 78 14Time of Possession 28:48 923rd Down Conv. % 42.4% 33Total Yards Per Game 415.2 47Yards Per Play 5.3 80Rush Attempts Per Game 35.7 96Rush Yards Per Game 157.3 76Yards Per Rush Attempt 4.4 57Pass Attempts Per Game 40.1 7Completion % 65.7% 13Passing Yards Per Game 257.8 34Yards Per Pass Attempt 6.4 106Turnovers 1.8 94



2018 44 14.5 1.41 -1.9 7 36.8 6.56 13.48 3 22.4 5.15 16.272017 Yes 46.5 17.4 1.67 -4.9 6- OC 36.9 5.93 12.74 9-DC 19.5 4.26 15.112016 46.5 13.7 2.23 -6 6-QB 34.8 6.62 14.49 7-DC 21.1 4.39 15.522015 43.5 12.6 1.34 -0.5 7 42.7 7.04 13.12 5 30 5.7 15.05

• INDIANA is 8-2 ATS (L10G) on ROAD - Underdog of more than 20 points

• INDIANA is 0-9-1 ATS (L10G) at HOME - After a blowout SU win of 20 points or more

• INDIANA is 20-4-1 OVER (L25G) at HOME - Underdog of more than 7 points





SCHEDULE STRENGTH

2019 SCHEDULE




MARYLANDTERRAPINSLocation: College Park, MD Stadium: Capital One Field at Maryland Stadium Head Coach: Mike Locksley - 1st season2018 Record: 5-7Returning Starters: 10 - Offense: 5 QB - Defense: 5Offensive Coordinator: Scottie Montgomery / Joker Phillips *Defensive Coordinator: Jon Hoke *

43.5

2 / 0

46.58 (#24 OF 130)

8/31/19 HOWARD9/7/19 SYRACUSE ROAD TEAMS are 3-0 SU & ATS in L3 games of MD-SYR series9/14/19 at Temple ROAD TEAMS are 6-2 SU & 8-0 ATS in L8 games of TEM-MD series9/27/19 PENN ST PENN ST is 6-1 SU & 5-2 ATS in its L7 games vs. MARYLAND10/5/19 at Rutgers UNDERDOGS are 5-2 SU & ATS in L7 games of MD-RUT series10/12/19 at Purdue10/19/19 INDIANA HOME TEAMS are 4-0 SU & ATS in L4 games of MD-IND series10/26/19 at Minnesota11/2/19 MICHIGAN FAVORITES are 4-0 SU & ATS in L4 games of MIC-MD series11/9/19 at Ohio St OVER the total is 5-0 in L5 games of MD-OSU series11/23/19 NEBRASKA11/30/19 at Michigan St UNDER the total is 5-0 in L5 games of MD-MST series

9/1/18 vs. Texas 34-29 W 12 W 54.5 O9/8/18 at Bowling Green 45-14 W -13 W 65.5 U9/15/18 TEMPLE 14-35 L -16 L 56 U9/22/18 MINNESOTA 42-13 W -1 W 46.5 O10/6/18 at Michigan 21-42 L 17.5 L 44.5 O10/13/18 RUTGERS 34-7 W -23.5 W 51 U10/20/18 at Iowa 0-23 L 9.5 L 44.5 U10/27/18 ILLINOIS 63-33 W -16.5 W 55.5 O11/3/18 MICHIGAN ST 3-24 L 3.5 L 42 U11/10/18 at Indiana 32-34 L -1 L 55 O11/17/18 OHIO ST 51-52 L 14 W 61.5 O11/24/18 at Penn St 3-38 L 11.5 L 51.5 U

Josh Jackson is the primary reason the Terrapins have hope. The former starting quarterback at Virginia Tech transferred to Maryland with two years of eligibility remaining, and Jackson will inject some action into an offense that last year was shut out in one conference game and held to exactly three points in two other losses. Anthony McFarland returns after rushing for 1,034 yards (7.9 per carry) as a freshman. The offense has potential, yet there are few other reasons for optimism. Mike Locksley inherits only nine returning starters, and Locksley was an incompetent head coach during his brief stay at New Mexico that was a disaster on the field (2-26 from 2009 to 2011) and off. Locksley was the offensive coordinator at Alabama, so maybe he learned something from Nick Saban, but we have to see it to

believe it. Until he proves otherwise, Locksley is a bet-against coach. After opening against Howard, Maryland is not a great bet to win another game. It’s mostly up to Jackson to elevate this team above low expectations. Syracuse, Temple, Rutgers and Indiana are beatable opponents, but repeating last year’s 5-7 record is probably a fantasy.

UNDER 4POINTSBET




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MARYLANDTERRAPINS

Points Per Game 28.5 57Yards Per Point 13 29Plays Per Game 63 128Time of Possession 29:01 843rd Down Conv. % 40.0% 54Total Yards Per Game 371.5 89Yards Per Play 5.9 37Rush Attempts Per Game 40.5 42Rush Yards Per Game 230.2 15Yards Per Rush Attempt 5.7 9Pass Attempts Per Game 20.1 125Completion % 51.9% 117Passing Yards Per Game 141.2 121Yards Per Pass Attempt 7 85Turnovers 1.2 25



2018 44.5 18.5 2.64 -6.8 8-QB, OC 38.2 7.38 11.72 5 19.8 4.75 16.882017 40.5 7.9 1.82 -1.9 6-QB 36.1 6.48 11.28 7 28.2 4.66 12.352016 Yes 38.5 9.8 1.32 0.1 7- OC 32.9 6.44 13.15 5-DC 23.1 5.12 16.742015 36.5 10.1 1.92 1 6-QB 34.7 6.64 13.22 4 24.6 4.72 14.49

• MARYLAND is 8-2 ATS (L10G) at HOME - Favorite of more than 20 points

• MARYLAND is 0-15 ATS (L15G) - After a conference SU win

• MARYLAND is 7-0 OVER (L7G) - Underdog of more than 20 points





SCHEDULE STRENGTH

2019 SCHEDULE




RUTGERSSCARLET KNIGHTSLocation: Piscataway, NJ Stadium: High Point Solutions Stadium Head Coach: Chris Ash - 4th season2018 Record: 1-11Returning Starters: 13 - Offense: 8 QB - Defense: 5Offensive Coordinator: John McNultyDefensive Coordinator: Andy Buh / Noah Joseph

32.5

2.25 / -1

47.17 (#18 OF 130)

8/30/19 MASSACHUSETTS9/7/19 at Iowa9/21/19 BOSTON COLLEGE FAVORITES are 10-0 SU & 8-2 ATS in BC-RUT series since 19959/28/19 at Michigan OVER the total is 5-0 in L5 games of RUT-MIC series10/5/19 MARYLAND UNDERDOGS are 5-2 SU & ATS in L7 games of MD-RUT series10/12/19 at Indiana HOME TEAMS are 1-3 SU but 4-0 ATS in L4 games of IND-RUT series10/19/19 MINNESOTA10/26/19 LIBERTY11/2/19 at Illinois ROAD TEAMS are 4-0 SU & ATS in L4 games of ILL-RUT series11/16/19 OHIO ST FAVORITES are 5-0 SU & ATS in L5 games of OSU-RUT series11/23/19 MICHIGAN ST UNDER the total is 5-1 in L6 games of MST-RUT series11/30/19 at Penn St UNDER the total is 6-0 in L6 games of RUT-PSU series

9/1/18 TEXAS ST UNIV 35-7 W -16.5 W 47.5 U9/8/18 at Ohio St 3-52 L 34 L 57.5 U9/15/18 at Kansas 14-55 L -1 L 44.5 O9/22/18 BUFFALO 13-42 L 6 L 53.5 O9/29/18 INDIANA 17-24 L 14.5 W 51 U10/6/18 ILLINOIS 17-38 L 4.5 L 51 O10/13/18 at Maryland 7-34 L 23.5 L 51 U10/20/18 NORTHWESTERN 15-18 L 20 W 48.5 U11/3/18 at Wisconsin 17-31 L 29 W 51.5 U11/10/18 MICHIGAN 7-42 L 37 W 45 O11/17/18 PENN ST 7-20 L 28 W 53 U11/24/18 at Michigan St 10-14 L 24 W 37.5 U

It’s a square approach to play bad teams under low win totals, but the Scarlet Knights went 1-11 last season, when their win total was four. Sometimes, obvious plays are the right plays. Chris Ash enters his fourth year, and his high-water mark was 4-8 in 2017. Raise your hand if you want to bet on the worst of the Big Ten’s 14 teams to overachieve … seeing no hands, let’s move on. Ash does have eight starters returning on offense, including 6-foot-5 quarterback Artur Sitkowski, who completed 49 percent of his passes with four touchdowns and 18 interceptions last year as a freshman. This is a ridiculous-but-true stat: Rutgers quarterbacks have totaled 12 TD passes in the past 24 games. Junior running back Raheem Blackshear is the team’s top offensive weapon. Ash fielded a young team, knowing he

would take some lumps. He’s hoping it pays off this year. The Knights did schedule two expected wins (Massachusetts and Liberty) and they have a shot against Maryland and Indiana, but the outlook remains bleak. Ash needs to show improvement to save his job. He’s likely headed for 2-10 or 3-9 and the unemployment line.

UNDER 3WESTGATE




TOP TRENDS FOR 2019







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RUTGERSSCARLET KNIGHTS




2018 33.5 -1 -0.03 14.4 7-QB, OC 23.1 4.91 13.66 8 24.1 4.94 14.42017 31.5 5.2 0.25 5.3 6- OC 26.3 5.22 11.77 8 21.1 4.97 16.422016 Yes 24 -4.9 -0.57 11.5 9- OC 24.8 4.92 13.55 7-DC 29.7 5.49 13.12015 33 4.1 0.1 7.5 5-QB, OC 33.8 6.29 12.52 5 29.7 6.19 14.03

• RUTGERS is 11-4 ATS (L15G) - Revenging a loss

• RUTGERS is 2-8 ATS (L10G) on ROAD - [vs OPP] After SU win

• RUTGERS is 7-0 UNDER (L7G) on ROAD - Favorite of more than 7 points





SCHEDULE STRENGTH

2019 SCHEDULE




WISCONSINBADGERSLocation: Madison, WI Stadium: Camp Randall Stadium Head Coach: Paul Chryst - 5th season2018 Record: 8-5Returning Starters: 12 - Offense: 6 - Defense: 6Offensive Coordinator: Joe RudolphDefensive Coordinator: Jim Leonhard

55.5

3 / 0.75

45.13 (#41 OF 130)

8/30/19 at South Florida9/7/19 C MICHIGAN9/21/19 MICHIGAN WISCONSIN is 4-1 SU & 5-0 ATS in its L5 games hosting MICHIGAN9/28/19 NORTHWESTERN HOME TEAMS are 14-7 SU & 15-6 ATS in NW-WIS series since 199210/5/19 KENT ST10/12/19 MICHIGAN ST UNDERDOGS are 4-1 SU & 5-0 ATS in L5 games of MST-WIS series10/19/19 at Illinois OVER the total is 11-4 in WIS-ILL series since 199510/26/19 at Ohio St UNDERDOGS are 14-6 ATS in WIS-OSU series since 199211/9/19 IOWA ROAD TEAMS are 11-4 SU & ATS in WIS-IOW series since 200211/16/19 at Nebraska ROAD TEAMS are 1-3 SU but 4-0 ATS in L4 games of WIS-NEB series11/23/19 PURDUE ROAD TEAMS are 4-2 SU & 6-0 ATS in L6 games of PUR-WIS series11/30/19 at Minnesota ROAD TEAMS are 4-2 SU & 6-0 ATS in L6 games of WIS-MIN series

8/31/18 W KENTUCKY 34-3 W -35.5 L 52 U9/8/18 NEW MEXICO 45-14 W -36 L 58 O9/15/18 BYU 21-24 L -23.5 L 52.5 U9/22/18 at Iowa 28-17 W -3 W 44 O10/6/18 NEBRASKA 41-24 W -18.5 L 60 O10/13/18 at Michigan 13-38 L 9.5 L 46.5 O10/20/18 ILLINOIS 49-20 W -24 W 53 O10/27/18 at Northwestern 17-31 L -4.5 L 50 U11/3/18 RUTGERS 31-17 W -29 L 51.5 U11/10/18 at Penn St 10-22 L 7.5 L 53.5 U11/17/18 at Purdue 47-44 W 3.5 W 56.5 O11/24/18 MINNESOTA 15-37 L -11 L 52.5 U12/27/18 vs. Miami Fl 35-3 W 3 W 44 U

It’s tough to pick a favorite in the Big Ten West, where six teams have a realistic shot to win it. Some signs hint at the Badgers’ decline, but their track record of success deserves the benefit of the doubt. After winning 34 games from 2015 to 2017, Wisconsin slipped to 8-5 (4-9 against the spread) in coach Paul Chryst’s fourth year. Poor quarterback play contributed to the slide, and Alex Hornibrook’s surprise decision to transfer to Florida State could be a good thing. The new starter will be either junior Jack Coan or freshman Graham Mertz, one of the nation’s top recruits who turned down Alabama, Ohio State and several other major offers. Mertz likely wins the job and must be a quick study, but he can turn to a star running back for help. Jonathan Taylor is back after rushing for 1,977 yards as a freshman

and 2,194 yards and 16 touchdowns last year. The Badgers need to rebuild their offensive line, something that’s rarely a problem in this program. Wisconsin’s league schedule is about as difficult as it gets, so a nine-win season seems unrealistic with inexperienced quarterbacks.

UNDER 8.5WESTGATE


2019 BIG TEN CONFERENCE WEST DIVISION


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WISCONSINBADGERS




2018 53 19.8 2.63 -12.5 9-QB 37.7 7.52 13.39 4 18 4.89 17.62017 64 36.9 3.72 -22.4 8 42.6 7.37 11.67 7-DC 5.7 3.66 38.542016 60.5 32.2 2.29 -20.1 5-QB 40 6.5 11.62 6-DC 7.7 4.2 33.332015 Yes 51 22.9 1.69 -8.7 5- OC 32.5 5.76 12.62 6 9.7 4.06 25.6

• WISCONSIN is 12-3 ATS (L15G) - After playing ILLINOIS

• WISCONSIN is 1-6 ATS (L7G) on ROAD - Favorite of more than 20 points

• WISCONSIN is 8-2 UNDER (L10G) on ROAD - [vs OPP] AP top 10





SCHEDULE STRENGTH

2019 SCHEDULE




IOWAHAWKEYESLocation: Iowa City, IA Stadium: Kinnick Stadium Head Coach: Kirk Ferentz - 21st season2018 Record: 9-4Returning Starters: 10 - Offense: 6 QB - Defense: 4Offensive Coordinator: Brian FerentzDefensive Coordinator: Phil Parker

52.5

4 / 0.25

45.04 (#42 OF 130)

8/31/19 MIAMI OHIO9/7/19 RUTGERS9/14/19 at Iowa St IOWA ST is 10-11 SU but 14-7 ATS vs. IOWA since 19989/28/19 MIDDLE TENN ST10/5/19 at Michigan UNDERDOGS are 5-11 SU but 13-3 ATS in IOW-MIC series since 199310/12/19 PENN ST HOME TEAMS are 7-3 SU & 8-2 ATS in PSU-IOW series since 200410/19/19 PURDUE ROAD TEAMS are 6-4 SU & 8-0 ATS in IOW-PUR series since 200710/26/19 at Northwestern UNDERDOGS are 11-10 SU & 13-8 ATS in NW-IOW series since 199611/9/19 at Wisconsin ROAD TEAMS are 11-4 SU & ATS in WIS-IOW series since 200211/16/19 MINNESOTA IOWA is 19-7 SU & 17-8 ATS vs. MINNESOTA since 199311/23/19 ILLINOIS FAVORITES are 15-1 SU & 12-4 ATS in IOW-ILL series since 199611/29/19 at Nebraska ROAD TEAMS are 4-3 SU & 6-1 ATS in L7 games of NEB-IOW series

9/1/18 N ILLINOIS 33-7 W -10 W 46.5 U9/8/18 IOWA ST 13-3 W -3 W 46 U9/15/18 N IOWA 38-14 W -21.5 W 43.5 O9/22/18 WISCONSIN 17-28 L 3 L 44 O10/6/18 at Minnesota 48-31 W -7 W 41.5 O10/13/18 at Indiana 42-16 W -3.5 W 52 O10/20/18 MARYLAND 23-0 W -9.5 W 44.5 U10/27/18 at Penn St 24-30 L 5 L 51 O11/3/18 at Purdue 36-38 L 2 T 52 O11/10/18 NORTHWESTERN 10-14 L -10.5 L 45.5 U11/17/18 at Illinois 63-0 W -16 W 59.5 O11/23/18 NEBRASKA 31-28 W -8.5 L 52.5 O1/1/19 vs. Mississippi St 27-22 W 7 W 40.5 O

Senior quarterback Nathan Stanley had it good last year. That was obvious when Hawkeyes tight ends T.J. Hockenson (No. 8, Detroit) and Noah Fant (No. 20, Denver) went in the first round of the NFL Draft. Stanley passed for 26 touchdowns, with half of those going to his star tight ends. It’s not easy to replace big-time targets like that, and it’s not going to be easy for coach Kirk Ferentz to rebuild a defense that lost seven starters. Iowa finished 9-4 with an Outback Bowl victory over Mississippi State, but the results could have been so much better as the Hawkeyes lost three conference games by six points or fewer. Ferentz enters his 21st year in Iowa City facing more personnel questions than usual, and a few younger coaching stars — Nebraska’s Scott Frost, Purdue’s Jeff Brohm and Minnesota’s P.J. Fleck — are

turning the West division into a dogfight top to bottom. The Hawkeyes draw a rigorous league road schedule with games at Michigan, Northwestern, Wisconsin and Nebraska. With only 10 returning starters, winning eight games is a lot to ask. Ferentz will keep the Hawkeyes in the hunt and most likely finish 7-5.

UNDER 7.5WESTGATE




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IOWAHAWKEYES




2018 58 28.9 2.37 -14.4 7-QB 40 6.4 11.25 6 11.2 4.03 22.972017 51.5 27.3 2.14 -7.2 7-QB 38.7 6.4 10.78 8 11.5 4.27 26.182016 50.5 25.6 1.93 -10 5 36.9 6.31 10.64 8 11.3 4.38 26.972015 54 26.4 2.39 -10.2 5-QB 39.1 6.68 11.39 7 12.6 4.29 23.69

• IOWA is 7-0 ATS (L7G) - Before playing WISCONSIN

• IOWA is 2-8 ATS (L10G) on ROAD - Favorite of more than 14 points

• IOWA is 7-0 OVER (L7G) - [vs OPP] After a close SU win of 3 points or less





SCHEDULE STRENGTH

2019 SCHEDULE




MINNESOTAGOLDEN GOPHERSLocation: Minneapolis, MN Stadium: TCF Bank Stadium Head Coach: P. J. Fleck - 3rd season2018 Record: 7-6Returning Starters: 16 - Offense: 9 QB - Defense: 7Offensive Coordinator: Kirk CiarroccaDefensive Coordinator: Joe Rossi *

49.5

2.75 / 0

45.33 (#38 OF 130)

8/29/19 S DAKOTA ST9/7/19 at Fresno St9/14/19 GA SOUTHERN9/28/19 at Purdue FAVORITES are 15-3 SU & 12-5 ATS in PUR-MIN series since 199710/5/19 ILLINOIS MINNESOTA is 14-8 SU & ATS vs. ILLINOIS since 199210/12/19 NEBRASKA OVER the total is 5-1 in L6 games of NEB-MIN series10/19/19 at Rutgers10/26/19 MARYLAND11/9/19 PENN ST MINNESOTA is 5-7 SU but 8-4 ATS vs. PENN ST since 199711/16/19 at Iowa IOWA is 19-7 SU & 17-8 ATS vs. MINNESOTA since 199311/23/19 at Northwestern UNDER the total is 8-0 in L8 games of NW-MIN series11/30/19 WISCONSIN ROAD TEAMS are 4-2 SU & 6-0 ATS in L6 games of WIS-MIN series

8/30/18 NEW MEXICO ST 48-10 W -21.5 W 49 O9/8/18 FRESNO ST 21-14 W 1 W 50.5 U9/15/18 MIAMI OHIO 26-3 W -14 W 47.5 U9/22/18 at Maryland 13-42 L 1 L 46.5 O10/6/18 IOWA 31-48 L 7 L 41.5 O10/13/18 at Ohio St 14-30 L 29 W 61 U10/20/18 at Nebraska 28-53 L 4 L 54.5 O10/26/18 INDIANA 38-31 W 2.5 W 53 O11/3/18 at Illinois 31-55 L -9 L 62 O11/10/18 PURDUE 41-10 W 11 W 58.5 U11/17/18 NORTHWESTERN 14-24 L -2.5 L 48.5 U11/24/18 at Wisconsin 37-15 W 11 W 52.5 U12/26/18 vs. Georgia Tech 34-10 W 5.5 W 57 U

If there’s a sleeper team in the West, this is it. The Golden Gophers return 16 starters (and 37 of 44 players on the two-deep roster) from a seven-win team, yet they are most often picked fifth or sixth in the division. One reason for skepticism is the quarterback position looks shaky. The battle between sophomores Zack Annexstad and Tanner Morgan is too close to call, with freshman Jacob Clark situated as a long shot for the job. Most other teams in the division are led by established and more talented QBs. But the Gophers’ quarterback will have talent around him. Mohamed Ibrahim rushed for 1,160 yards last season, and Tyler Johnson totaled 78 receptions for 1,169 yards and 12 touchdowns. Youth led to inconsistency last year, when Minnesota blew out Purdue and Wisconsin yet also got routed by

lightweights Illinois and Maryland. The Gophers face arguably the softest schedule in the conference and could be 6-2 by the end of October — and they also could lose their final four games. Quarterback play will be the key, and for now that’s a mystery, so pencil in Fleck for 7-5 and another minor bowl.

UNDER 7.5WESTGATE




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MINNESOTAGOLDEN GOPHERS




2018 47 16.6 1.3 -1.5 7 36.2 6.54 12.25 7 19.6 5.23 17.512017 Yes 41.5 12.7 0.75 -1.3 7-QB, OC 30 5.63 11.85 6-DC 17.3 4.87 17.752016 50 20.7 1.64 -8.9 7- OC 38.3 6.01 10.78 6-DC 17.7 4.37 17.832015 44 12.2 1.88 -4 5 32.5 6.21 12.83 7 20.3 4.33 15.27

• MINNESOTA is 8-0-1 ATS (L9G) at HOME - OU line of 60 or more

• MINNESOTA is 1-8-1 ATS (L10G) - After playing PURDUE

• MINNESOTA is 7-0 UNDER (L7G) at HOME - Underdog of more than 14 points





SCHEDULE STRENGTH

2019 SCHEDULE




NEBRASKACORNHUSKERSLocation: Lincoln, NE Stadium: Memorial Stadium, Tom Osborne Field Head Coach: Scott Frost - 2nd season2018 Record: 4-8Returning Starters: 13 - Offense: 7 QB - Defense: 6Offensive Coordinator: Troy WaltersDefensive Coordinator: Erik Chinander

49

2 / -0.5

45.27 (#40 OF 130)

8/31/19 S ALABAMA9/7/19 at Colorado COLORADO is 5-11 SU but 12-4 ATS vs. NEBRASKA since 19969/14/19 N ILLINOIS9/21/19 at Illinois UNDER the total is 4-2 in L6 games of NEB-ILL series9/28/19 OHIO ST OHIO ST is 4-1 SU & ATS in its L5 games vs. NEBRASKA10/5/19 NORTHWESTERN ROAD TEAMS are 4-3 SU & 7-0 ATS in L7 games of NEB-NW series10/12/19 at Minnesota OVER the total is 5-1 in L6 games of NEB-MIN series10/26/19 INDIANA11/2/19 at Purdue ROAD TEAMS are 5-1 ATS in L6 games of NEB-PUR series11/16/19 WISCONSIN ROAD TEAMS are 1-3 SU but 4-0 ATS in L4 games of WIS-NEB series11/23/19 at Maryland11/29/19 IOWA ROAD TEAMS are 4-3 SU & 6-1 ATS in L7 games of NEB-IOW series

9/8/18 COLORADO 28-33 L -3 L 62 U9/15/18 TROY 19-24 L -10 L 55 U9/22/18 at Michigan 10-56 L 18 L 52.5 O9/29/18 PURDUE 28-42 L 3.5 L 58 O10/6/18 at Wisconsin 24-41 L 18.5 W 60 O10/13/18 at Northwestern 31-34 L 3.5 W 58 O10/20/18 MINNESOTA 53-28 W -4 W 54.5 O10/27/18 BETHUNE-COOKMAN 45-9 W -47 L 70 U11/3/18 at Ohio St 31-36 L 17 W 75.5 U11/10/18 ILLINOIS 54-35 W -17 W 72.5 O11/17/18 MICHIGAN ST 9-6 W -1 W 48 U11/23/18 at Iowa 28-31 L 8.5 W 52.5 O

The Heisman hype is premature, but sophomore Adrian Martinez might develop into the second-best quarterback in the conference behind Michigan’s Shea Patterson. Martinez passed for 2,617 yards and 17 touchdowns and ran for 629 yards and eight TDs as a freshman. Expect those numbers to balloon in his second year under coach Scott Frost. Nebraska finished 4-8 in Frost’s debut, but the way the Cornhuskers finished — 4-2 in their last six games with a five-point loss at Ohio State and a three-point loss at Iowa — is a strong indicator of what’s coming. It was no fluke that Frost led Central Florida to an undefeated season that included a Peach Bowl upset of Auburn. The offense will miss rushing leader Devine Ozigbo and top wideout Stanley Morgan, but Frost has recruited well and

reinforcements are ready. If something holds back the Cornhuskers, their defense is a concern after allowing 31.2 points per game. It’s a big leap to go from four wins to West division champs, yet Nebraska’s schedule is ideal with Ohio State, Northwestern, Wisconsin and Iowa set to visit Lincoln. Frost will flip the record to 8-4 or better.

OVER 8POINTSBET




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NEBRASKACORNHUSKERS




2018 Yes 52 14.9 2.34 -8.8 7-OC 39.3 7.4 13.61 8-DC 24.4 5.06 15.472017 38.5 8.3 1.55 -4 4-QB 36.3 6.88 13.08 6-DC 27.9 5.34 13.152016 45 19 1.57 -4.7 7 34.7 6.32 12.91 6 15.7 4.75 19.62015 Yes 45.5 18.8 1.82 -4.8 6- OC 40.5 6.98 12.53 6-DC 21.6 5.16 16.44

• NEBRASKA is 4-1 ATS (L2Y) on ROAD - with Head coach - FROST

• NEBRASKA is 0-10 ATS (L10G) at HOME - as AP top 10

• NEBRASKA is 7-0-1 OVER (L8G) - After playing WISCONSIN





SCHEDULE STRENGTH

2019 SCHEDULE




PURDUEBOILERMAKERSLocation: West Lafayette, IN Stadium: Ross–Ade Stadium Head Coach: Jeff Brohm - 3rd season2018 Record: 6-7Returning Starters: 12 - Offense: 3 - Defense: 9Offensive Coordinator: Brian Brohm / JaMarcus ShepardDefensive Coordinator: Nick Holt / Anthony Poindexter

45.5

2.75 / 0.75

46.79 (#21 OF 130)

8/30/19 at Nevada9/7/19 VANDERBILT9/14/19 TCU9/28/19 MINNESOTA FAVORITES are 15-3 SU & 12-5 ATS in PUR-MIN series since 199710/5/19 at Penn St UNDER the total is 8-2 in PSU-PUR series since 200010/12/19 MARYLAND10/19/19 at Iowa ROAD TEAMS are 6-4 SU & 8-0 ATS in IOW-PUR series since 200710/26/19 ILLINOIS PURDUE is 14-7 SU & 12-8 ATS vs. ILLINOIS since 199211/2/19 NEBRASKA ROAD TEAMS are 5-1 ATS in L6 games of NEB-PUR series11/9/19 at Northwestern ROAD TEAMS are 12-10 SU & 16-6 ATS in NW-PUR series since 199211/23/19 at Wisconsin ROAD TEAMS are 4-2 SU & 6-0 ATS in L6 games of PUR-WIS series11/30/19 INDIANA OVER the total is 5-0 in L5 games of PUR-IND series at PURDUE

8/30/18 NORTHWESTERN 27-31 L -1 L 51 O9/8/18 E MICHIGAN 19-20 L -15 L 50.5 U9/15/18 MISSOURI 37-40 L 5.5 W 67 O9/22/18 BOSTON COLLEGE 30-13 W 6 W 62.5 U9/29/18 at Nebraska 42-28 W -3.5 W 58 O10/13/18 at Illinois 46-7 W -11 W 62 U10/20/18 OHIO ST 49-20 W 12.5 W 66 O10/27/18 at Michigan St 13-23 L -2 L 49 U11/3/18 IOWA 38-36 W -2 T 52 O11/10/18 at Minnesota 10-41 L -11 L 58.5 U11/17/18 WISCONSIN 44-47 L -3.5 L 56.5 O11/24/18 at Indiana 28-21 W -3.5 W 65.5 U12/28/18 vs. Auburn 14-63 L 3.5 L 58.5 O

No other offense in the Big Ten features more speed on the perimeter, and Jeff Brohm is the type of innovative coach who finds ways to light up the scoreboard. Only three starters return on offense? No problem. Brohm recruited 6-foot-2 David Bell, the top prep player in Indiana, to line up with 5-9 speedster Rondale Moore. Senior tight end Brycen Hopkins and a deep receiver corps will create matchup nightmares for defenses. It’s a dream for junior quarterback Elijah Sindelar, who has nine career starts and a bowl win on his resume. The Boilermakers scored 30.5 points per game — 49 in a blowout of Ohio State — but their defense allowed 30 per game a year ago. Nine defensive starters return, including four elite players (George Karlaftis, Lorenzo Neal, Markus Bailey, Ben Holt) in the front seven. Purdue hosts

Nebraska and avoids Ohio State, Michigan and Michigan State this year. Brohm brought in a highly-rated recruiting class that will make an immediate impact, and the schedule sets up for an eight-win season. It would not be a surprise if the Boilermakers win the West, but the same can be said for five other teams.

OVER 7WESTGATE




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PURDUEBOILERMAKERS




2018 47.5 23.3 2.83 -8.1 9-QB 41.9 7.86 13.21 4 18.6 5.04 20.432017 Yes 47 22.2 2.25 -4.8 5- OC 32.9 6.69 14.31 8-DC 10.7 4.44 29.732016 30 0.4 0.35 9.7 8- OC 35.2 5.86 12.77 8-DC 34.7 5.51 11.372015 30.5 5.7 0.37 7.4 8 34.5 5.68 12.65 7 28.8 5.32 13.81

• PURDUE is 7-0 ATS (L7G) on ROAD - Underdog of more than 14 points

• PURDUE is 2-8 ATS (L10G) at HOME - Underdog of 10 or more points

• PURDUE is 7-0 UNDER (L7G) on ROAD - [vs OPP] After a close SU win of 3 points or less





SCHEDULE STRENGTH

2019 SCHEDULE




NORTHWESTERNWILDCATSLocation: Evanston, IL Stadium: Ryan Field Head Coach: Pat Fitzgerald - 14th season2018 Record: 9-5Returning Starters: 12 - Offense: 6 - Defense: 6Offensive Coordinator: Mick McCallDefensive Coordinator: Mike Hankwitz

46

3.25 / 0.5

45.54 (#34 OF 130)

8/31/19 at Stanford9/14/19 UNLV9/21/19 MICHIGAN ST ROAD TEAMS are 14-7 SU & 17-4 ATS in MST-NW series since 19929/28/19 at Wisconsin HOME TEAMS are 14-7 SU & 15-6 ATS in NW-WIS series since 199210/5/19 at Nebraska ROAD TEAMS are 4-3 SU & 7-0 ATS in L7 games of NEB-NW series10/18/19 OHIO ST FAVORITES are 7-0 SU & 6-1 ATS in L7 games of OSU-NW series10/26/19 IOWA UNDERDOGS are 11-10 SU & 13-8 ATS in NW-IOW series since 199611/2/19 at Indiana HOME TEAMS are 11-3 SU & 10-4 ATS in IND-NW series since 199611/9/19 PURDUE ROAD TEAMS are 12-10 SU & 16-6 ATS in NW-PUR series since 199211/16/19 MASSACHUSETTS11/23/19 MINNESOTA UNDER the total is 8-0 in L8 games of NW-MIN series11/30/19 at Illinois NORTHWESTERN is 13-7 SU & ATS vs. ILLINOIS since 1999

8/30/18 at Purdue 31-27 W 1 W 51 O9/8/18 DUKE 7-21 L -3 L 47.5 U9/15/18 AKRON 34-39 L -21 L 47.5 O9/29/18 MICHIGAN 17-20 L 14.5 W 46.5 U10/6/18 at Michigan St 29-19 W 10.5 W 43.5 O10/13/18 NEBRASKA 34-31 W -3.5 L 58 O10/20/18 at Rutgers 18-15 W -20 L 48.5 U10/27/18 WISCONSIN 31-17 W 4.5 W 50 U11/3/18 NOTRE DAME 21-31 L 10 T 49.5 O11/10/18 at Iowa 14-10 W 10.5 W 45.5 U11/17/18 at Minnesota 24-14 W 2.5 W 48.5 U11/24/18 ILLINOIS 24-16 W -14.5 L 57 U12/1/18 vs. Ohio St 24-45 L 16.5 L 63 O12/31/18 vs. Utah 31-20 W 6.5 W 44 O

Doubting the purple ‘Cats is a poor game plan. Pat Fitzgerald, entering his 14th year in Evanston, never has had a player picked in the first three rounds of the NFL Draft, and yet Fitz has not had a losing season since 2014. Last year, Northwestern won the West by three games, going 8-1 in league play and 0-3 in nonconference games. The Wildcats have won three consecutive bowls. Although four-year starting quarterback Clayton Thorson is gone, Fitzgerald might have lured a future first-round pick to replace Thorson, who had a mediocre senior year. Clemson transfer Hunter Johnson is the big-time passer Northwestern needs to try to repeat its division title. Junior middle linebacker Paddy Fisher, one of the league’s best at the position, will lead another solid “D” for Fitzgerald. The Wildcats, 19-8

the past two seasons, were the least-penalized team in the nation last year. The first half of the schedule is brutal — Michigan State and Ohio State at home, Wisconsin and Nebraska on the road — but the second half is much softer. If Johnson proves to be the real deal, look for the ‘Cats to make a late push for seven or eight wins.

OVER 6WESTGATE




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NORTHWESTERNWILDCATS




2018 50 18.5 0.9 -8 7-QB 33.9 5.7 12.62 7 15.5 4.8 21.622017 51.5 24.4 1.79 -8.5 8 37.5 6.16 12.58 8 13.2 4.36 23.842016 50 21 1.7 -9.6 6 36.1 6.25 12.95 6 15.1 4.55 22.862015 45.5 18.1 1.19 -0.5 6-QB 28.7 5.17 13.26 8 10.6 3.98 26

• NORTHWESTERN is 10-0 ATS (L10G) on ROAD - As underdog

• NORTHWESTERN is 2-13 ATS (L15G) at HOME - VS MAC

• NORTHWESTERN is 10-0 UNDER (L10G) - Before playing OHIO ST





SCHEDULE STRENGTH

2019 SCHEDULE




ILLINOISFIGHTING ILLINILocation: Champaign, IL Stadium: Memorial Stadium Head Coach: Lovie Smith - 4th season2018 Record: 4-8Returning Starters: 17 - Offense: 7 - Defense: 10Offensive Coordinator: Rod SmithDefensive Coordinator: Lovie Smith *

38

2.75 / -0.5

43.35 (#52 OF 130)

8/31/19 AKRON9/7/19 at Connecticut9/14/19 E MICHIGAN9/21/19 NEBRASKA UNDER the total is 4-2 in L6 games of NEB-ILL series10/5/19 at Minnesota MINNESOTA is 14-8 SU & ATS vs. ILLINOIS since 199210/12/19 MICHIGAN ROAD TEAMS are 10-8 SU & 11-6 ATS in ILL-MIC series since 199210/19/19 WISCONSIN OVER the total is 11-4 in WIS-ILL series since 199510/26/19 at Purdue PURDUE is 14-7 SU & 12-8 ATS vs. ILLINOIS since 199211/2/19 RUTGERS ROAD TEAMS are 4-0 SU & ATS in L4 games of ILL-RUT series11/9/19 at Michigan St FAVORITES are 9-2 SU & ATS in MST-ILL series since 199811/23/19 at Iowa FAVORITES are 15-1 SU & 12-4 ATS in IOW-ILL series since 199611/30/19 NORTHWESTERN NORTHWESTERN is 13-7 SU & ATS vs. ILLINOIS since 1999

9/1/18 KENT ST 31-24 W -18 L 57 U9/8/18 W ILLINOIS 34-14 W -8 W 51 U9/15/18 vs. South Florida 19-25 L 14 W 59 U9/21/18 PENN ST 24-63 L 26.5 L 61 O10/6/18 at Rutgers 38-17 W -4.5 W 51 O10/13/18 PURDUE 7-46 L 11 L 62 U10/20/18 at Wisconsin 20-49 L 24 L 53 O10/27/18 at Maryland 33-63 L 16.5 L 55.5 O11/3/18 MINNESOTA 55-31 W 9 W 62 O11/10/18 at Nebraska 35-54 L 17 L 72.5 O11/17/18 IOWA 0-63 L 16 L 59.5 O11/24/18 at Northwestern 16-24 L 14.5 W 57 U

For the past three years, Lovie Smith took his lumps. He took 27 losses while winning only nine games. That’s humbling for a coach with a Super Bowl pedigree. Still, he committed to rebuilding with young players and last season’s 4-8 record, while no reason for a Champaign toast, signaled a minor step in the right direction. Smith has 17 starters returning and a cupcake nonconference schedule (Akron, Connecticut, Eastern Michigan) that should mean a 3-0 start. After a mirage of early optimism, it could get ugly. The Fighting Illini will be favored in only one Big Ten game, against Rutgers in November. Smith can surprise the critics, but only if he finds a quarterback and fixes a dreadful defense that surrendered 39.4 points and 508 yards per game, including a laughable 245 per game on the ground.

Reggie Corbin returns after rushing for 1,085 yards, and Smith’s top recruit is dual-threat quarterback Isaiah Williams, a true freshman. Smith is all-in with Williams, who represents the future. Illinois can win four games against a schedule that is especially weak in September, but forecasting five is too optimistic.

UNDER 4.5WESTGATE




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ILLINOISFIGHTING ILLINI

Points Per Game 25.3 84Yards Per Point 16.3 107Plays Per Game 70.3 79Time of Possession 28:08 1033rd Down Conv. % 35.5% 98Total Yards Per Game 412.2 54Yards Per Play 5.9 40Rush Attempts Per Game 40.3 46Rush Yards Per Game 244 12Yards Per Rush Attempt 6.1 6Pass Attempts Per Game 27.7 97Completion % 53.4% 108Passing Yards Per Game 168.2 111Yards Per Pass Attempt 6.1 117Turnovers 2.2 119

Points Per Game 41.7 126Yards Per Point 12.5 1123rd Down Conv. % 46.2% 117Total Yards Per Game 521.8 128Yards Per Play 7 124Rush Yards Per Game 261.6 124Yards Per Rush Attempt 6.1 125Completion % 63.6% 108Passing Yards Per Game 260.2 105Yards Per Pass Attempt 8.7 114Sacks 1.6 106Turnovers 1.5 58


2018 36 0.2 0.58 6.2 8-OC 34.2 6.84 13.7 8 34.1 6.26 13.272017 30.5 -0.7 0.55 7.5 5-QB 23.7 5.46 13.94 6 24.4 4.92 14.912016 Yes 33.5 4.6 1.49 1.3 7- OC 29.6 6.29 12.6 4-DC 24.9 4.8 14.062015 42 14.9 1.46 -1.1 8 32.4 5.75 13.41 7 17.4 4.29 17.65

• ILLINOIS is 9-1 ATS (L10G) - [vs OPP] AP top 5

• ILLINOIS is 0-7 ATS (L7G) on ROAD - After playing WISCONSIN

• ILLINOIS is 8-2 UNDER (L10G) - After playing WISCONSIN



CONFERENCE USACONFERENCE PREVIEW


EAST DIVISIONMARSHALL 39.5 2.75 -0.25 31.48 118 7.8 4.2 5.6 2.4FLA ATLANTIC 38 3 0 32.96 108 7.3 4.7 5.4 2.6FLA INTERNATIONAL 38.5 3.25 -0.5 31.23 122 7.8 4.2 5.2 2.8MIDDLE TENN ST 33.5 3.5 -0.75 36.27 82 5.4 6.6 4.1 3.9W KENTUCKY 33 3.75 0.5 33.23 107 5.8 6.2 3.9 4.1CHARLOTTE 27 2.25 -0.75 34.02 102 4.4 7.6 2.7 5.3OLD DOMINION 23.5 2.75 -0.5 32.81 109 3.5 8.5 2.1 5.9

WEST DIVISIONSOUTHERN MISS 39.5 3.25 0.5 35.29 93 7.4 4.6 5.9 2.1NORTH TEXAS 38.5 3.5 -0.5 30.52 125 8.0 4.0 5.8 2.2LOUISIANA TECH 37.5 3 0.5 28.75 128 8.1 3.9 5.3 2.7UAB 34 3 0 26.02 130 7.6 4.4 4.9 3.1TX-SAN ANTONIO 21 3 0 34.56 96 2.9 9.1 2.2 5.8RICE 20.5 2 -0.5 37.63 76 1.7 10.3 1.6 6.4UTEP 16.5 2.25 -0.75 30.58 124 2.7 9.3 1.4 6.6



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GAMEEAST DIVISION CHAMPION MARSHALL MARSHALL FLA

ATLANTIC MARSHALL MARSHALL FIU MARSHALL MARSHALL

WEST DIVISION CHAMPION

LOUISIANATECH

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SOUTHERNMISS

NORTHTEXAS

NORTHTEXAS

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SOUTHERNMISS

LOUISIANATECH

CONFERENCE USA CHAMPIONSHIP MARSHALL LOUISIANA

TECHFLA

ATLANTIC MARSHALL NORTHTEXAS FIU MARSHALL MARSHALL

WRITTEN BY JONATHAN VON TOBEL - @MEJVT


Florida AtlanticFlorida Atlantic enters another season as the favorites to win Conference USA. Lane Kiffin’s squad, specifically his offense, enters in a much better spot than a year ago. In 2018 the Owls were the favorites as well, despite returning just five starters from an offense that averaged 40.6 points and 498 yards per game. As expected, FAU took a step back, winning just five games, covering three and finishing with a 3-5 straight-up record in conference play. This year, FAU loses a transcendent talent in running back Devin Singletary, but seven starters are back on offense. Quarterback Chris Robison, Co-Freshman of the year in C-USA last season who started 11 games, is back and will line up behind one of the best offensive lines in the conference. The defense is less experienced than a season ago, as it loses its leading sack artist Ernest Bagner and All-Conference linebacker Azeez Al-Shaair. However, injuries were a huge part of the unit’s regression a season ago, and despite returning 10 starters they allowed 31.8 points per game in 2018. FAU should rightly be one of the favorites to win C-USA this season, but with so much parity in this conference the Owls could be a fragile favorite with such short odds.

Florida International, Southern Miss and North TexasIt is hard to look past teams like Florida International, Southern Miss and North Texas as the Live ‘Dogs in C-USA this season. Butch Davis has done a tremendous job since arriving in Miami, posting a 17-9 straight-up and 15-8-1 against-the-spread record as head coach. FIU brings back a total of 16 starters from a season ago, eight on each side of the field, and should be extremely live to win a conference title at about 5/1. Southern Miss loses just one starter on offense, and quarterback Jack Abraham looks primed to build on a 2018 campaign in which he threw 15 touchdowns in nine starts. Then there is North Texas, a team that returns nine starters on an offense that averaged 34.6 points and 461 yards per game. However, if bettors need more bang for their buck, look no further than Marshall at 9/1 to win the conference. The Thundering Herd return 14 starters from a nine-win team in 2018, including their quarterback Isaiah Green. The conference is not short on quality teams, and it would not be at all surprising should any one of six teams come out on top.

Rice and UTEPTwo representatives from the West division get the honor of being Dead Money heading into the 2019 season. Rice returns 12 starters in Mike Bloomgren’s second season as head coach, but with a brutal schedule will likely be underdogs in every game. The Owls could improve on their 18.9 points per game from a season ago, but is nearly impossible to make a case for Rice to win the conference. The same goes for UTEP and head coach Dana Dimel. The Miners have 11 coming back this season. Among those returning is quarterback Kai Locksley, a one-time Texas commit. UTEP should improve on its single win last year, but is not even sniffing conference contention. Look toward the final game of the regular season on Nov. 30 for a barn-burner that will decide which of these long shots is the deadest of the ‘dogs.

2019 CONFERENCE USA PREVIEW

THE FAVORITE

LIVE DOGS

DEAD MONEY

BIG GAMES ON THE BOARDNorth Texas at Southern Miss, Oct. 12A game that could decide the representative of the West division in the C-USA Championship. Both teams will come in off of bye weeks, and bettors can expect Southern Miss to be a short favorite.

Marshall at Florida Atlantic, Oct. 18Another game that could make a difference in a division race, this one in the East. These two teams have split their last two matchups, with the home team coming out on top in each.

Southern Miss at Florida Atlantic, Nov. 30Last season, Middle Tennessee and UAB met in the regular season finale, and then again the next week in the conference title game. Could bettors get another title game preview when these two programs meet on the final day of the regular season?




SCHEDULE STRENGTH

2019 SCHEDULE




2019 CONFERENCE USA EAST DIVISION

MARSHALLTHUNDERING HERDLocation: Huntington, WV Stadium: Joan C. Edwards Stadium Head Coach: Doc Holliday - 10th season2018 Record: 9-4Returning Starters: 14 - Offense: 8 QB - Defense: 6Offensive Coordinator: Tim CramseyDefensive Coordinator: JC Price / Brad Lambert *

39.5

2.75 / -0.25

31.48 (#118 OF 130)

8/31/19 VMI9/7/19 at Boise St9/14/19 OHIO U HOME TEAMS are 5-1 SU & 6-0 ATS in L6 games of MAR-OHU series9/28/19 CINCINNATI ROAD TEAMS are 3-0 SU & ATS in L3 games of MAR-CIN series10/5/19 at Middle Tenn St ROAD TEAMS are 3-0 SU & ATS in L3 games of MTS-MAR series10/12/19 OLD DOMINION FAVORITES are 5-0 SU & ATS in L5 games of MAR-ODU series10/19/19 at FLA Atlantic UNDERDOGS are 1-5 SU but 5-1 ATS in L6 games of FAU-MAR series10/26/19 W KENTUCKY W KENTUCKY is 3-2 SU & 5-0 ATS in its L5 games vs. MARSHALL11/2/19 at Rice HOME TEAMS are 5-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in L6 games of MAR-RIC series11/16/19 LOUISIANA TECH11/23/19 at Charlotte HOME TEAMS are 2-1 SU & 3-0 ATS in L3 games of MAR-CHA series11/30/19 FLA INTERNATIONAL HOME TEAMS are 2-3 SU but 4-1 ATS in L5 games of FIU-MAR series

9/1/18 at Miami Ohio 35-28 W 1.5 W 51.5 O9/8/18 E KENTUCKY 32-16 W -31 L 52.5 U9/22/18 NC STATE 20-37 L 6 L 56 O9/29/18 at W Kentucky 20-17 W -3.5 L 51.5 U10/5/18 MIDDLE TENN ST 24-34 L -3 L 51 O10/13/18 at Old Dominion 42-20 W -4 W 56.5 O10/20/18 FLA ATLANTIC 31-7 W 2.5 W 60.5 U11/3/18 at Southern Miss 24-26 L -3 L 47.5 O11/10/18 CHARLOTTE 30-13 W -13 W 42 O11/17/18 TX-SAN ANTONIO 23-0 W -26.5 L 47 U11/24/18 at Fla International 28-25 W -3.5 L 52.5 O12/1/18 at Virginia Tech 20-41 L 3.5 L 52 O12/20/18 at South Florida 38-20 W -3 W 49 O

It is hard not to like what Marshall brings to the table in Doc Holliday’s 10th season at the helm, especially on offense. At quarterback, the Thundering Herd have Isaiah Green, C-USA Freshman Player of the Year, and Alex Thomson a grad transfer from Wagner. Their signal-caller will lineup behind an offensive line that returns four starters, and adds former Florida State Seminole, and JUCO transfer, Josh Ball. The team’s top two rushers from 2018 return, and while they lose an All-Conference receiver in Tyre Brady, they add Kentucky transfer Tavin Richardson. Marshall is in a fantastic spot on offense, more than capable of improving on 28.2 points per game and 5.6 yards per play from last year. On defense, the defensive front returns six of eight linemen and add a graduate transfer from within the conference in Fermin Silva. The biggest question for Holliday will be the linebacker corps, which will lose

two starters. The Herd will be tested early in their schedule, as they make the trip to Boise for a meeting with the Broncos, then play host to both Ohio and Cincinnati. Marshall must face both FAU and FIU in conference, but they get the Panthers at home. In fact, their conference schedule is light as they avoid the top three teams in the West. Look nowhere but over the win total for Marshall.

OVER 7FANDUEL

JONATHAN VON TOBEL’S SEASON WIN TOTAL PREDICTION


TOP TRENDS FOR 2019







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MARSHALLTHUNDERING HERD




2018 41 9.8 1.17 -1.5 9-OC 30.4 5.74 13.19 9-DC 20.6 4.56 15.692017 35 9.6 0.6 3.8 6 28.4 5.46 13.34 7 18.9 4.86 17.482016 23 -8.7 -1.29 17.3 7 22.9 5.05 15.32 4 31.6 6.34 14.392015 41 13.4 0.66 4.1 6-QB 32.1 5.37 12.36 5 18.7 4.71 20.05

• MARSHALL is 7-0 ATS (L7G) - More than 13 days rest

• MARSHALL is 7-21-1 ATS (L29G) - Revenging a road loss

• MARSHALL is 10-0 OVER (L10G) - After a close SU win of 3 points or less





SCHEDULE STRENGTH

2019 SCHEDULE




FLORIDA ATLANTICOWLSLocation: Boca Raton, FL Stadium: FAU Stadium Head Coach: Lane Kiffin - 3rd season2018 Record: 5-7Returning Starters: 13 - Offense: 7 QB - Defense: 6Offensive Coordinator: Charlie Weis Jr.Defensive Coordinator: Glenn Spencer *

38

3 / 0

32.96 (#108 OF 130)

8/31/19 at Ohio St9/7/19 UCF9/14/19 at Ball St9/21/19 WAGNER9/28/19 at Charlotte UNDER the total is 4-0 in L4 games of CHA-FAU series10/12/19 MIDDLE TENN ST MIDDLE TENN ST is 9-1 SU & 8-2 ATS vs. FLA ATLANTIC since 200910/19/19 MARSHALL UNDERDOGS are 1-5 SU but 5-1 ATS in L6 games of FAU-MAR series10/26/19 at Old Dominion OVER the total is 4-0 in L4 games of ODU-FAU series11/2/19 at W Kentucky FLA ATLANTIC is 4-2 SU & 5-1 ATS in its L6 games vs. W KENTUCKY11/9/19 FLA INTERNATIONAL UNDERDOGS are 4-2 SU & 5-1 ATS in L6 games of FIU-FAU series11/23/19 at Tx-San Antonio11/30/19 SOUTHERN MISS

9/1/18 at Oklahoma 14-63 L 18.5 L 69 O9/8/18 AIR FORCE 33-27 W -7.5 L 59.5 O9/15/18 BETHUNE-COOKMAN 49-28 W -40.5 L 58.5 O9/21/18 at UCF 36-56 L 14 L 75 O9/29/18 at Middle Tenn St 24-25 L -2 L 65 U10/6/18 OLD DOMINION 52-33 W -13.5 W 63.5 O10/20/18 at Marshall 7-31 L -2.5 L 60.5 U10/26/18 LOUISIANA TECH 13-21 L -3.5 L 58.5 U11/3/18 at Fla International 49-14 W 2 W 59.5 O11/10/18 W KENTUCKY 34-15 W -17.5 W 60 U11/15/18 at North Texas 38-41 L 4.5 W 62.5 O11/24/18 CHARLOTTE 24-27 L -16.5 L 53.5 U

Lane Kiffin has won 16 games in his two years in Boca Raton, but 11 of those victories came in 2017 as part of a conference title run. This season Kiffin and the Owls are at the forefront of contention yet again with 13 returning starters, seven of which come on offense. FAU loses All-CUSA running back Devin Singletary, but replaces him with former Alabama running back BJ Emmons. He will likely lineup beside Chris Robison, an Oklahoma transfer that started 11 games last season for the Owls. The offense will need more from Robison (12 touchdowns, 12 interceptions) as a majority of the offensive production last year revolved around Singletary and a run-game that averaged 5.1 yards per carry and 242 yards per game. Defensively, FAU should improve with better health, and they implement a new system under defensive coordinator Glen Spencer. Spencer held the same position for Charlotte last season,

leading them to their best defensive season in program history. The schedule sets up very well for the Owls. After brutal nonconference games at Ohio State and home against UCF they do not face a team that had a winning record in 2018 on the road. Their toughest opponents (Marshall, FIU, Southern Miss) all make the trip to FAU Stadium. It should be over or pass with the Owls’ win total.

OVER 8FANDUEL




TOP TRENDS FOR 2019







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FLORIDA ATLANTICOWLS

Points Per Game 29.5 49Yards Per Point 16.1 103Plays Per Game 77.5 17Time of Possession 28:48 943rd Down Conv. % 33.1% 116Total Yards Per Game 475.2 13Yards Per Play 6.1 18Rush Attempts Per Game 45.9 10Rush Yards Per Game 230.6 14Yards Per Rush Attempt 5 25Pass Attempts Per Game 30.4 74Completion % 62.0% 36Passing Yards Per Game 244.5 52Yards Per Pass Attempt 8.1 28Turnovers 1.7 91



2018 37.5 6 1.07 1.4 5-OC 33.8 6.58 15.1 10 27.8 5.51 14.252017 Yes 48.5 19.2 1.86 -5.2 9- OC 41.4 7.03 12.27 8-DC 22.2 5.17 17.792016 20.5 -9 -0.71 19.3 8 26.1 5.94 15.93 7 35.1 6.65 14.12015 30 -1.4 0.03 11.7 6 23.7 5.35 16.69 6 25.1 5.32 15.45

• FL ATLANTIC is 8-2 ATS (L3Y) at HOME - OU line of 60 or more

• FL ATLANTIC is 0-7 ATS (L7G) at HOME - On Friday

• FL ATLANTIC is 11-3-1 UNDER (L15G) at HOME - [vs OPP] After a conference SU loss





SCHEDULE STRENGTH

2019 SCHEDULE




FLORIDA INTERNATIONALGOLDEN PANTHERSLocation: Miami, FL Stadium: Riccardo Silva Stadium Head Coach: Butch Davis - 3rd season2018 Record: 9-4Returning Starters: 16 - Offense: 8 QB - Defense: 8Offensive Coordinator: Rich SkroskyDefensive Coordinator: Jeff Copp / Jerod Kruse *

38.5

3.25 / -0.5

31.23 (#122 OF 130)

8/29/19 at Tulane9/7/19 W KENTUCKY ROAD TEAMS are 4-2 SU & 5-1 ATS in L6 games of FIU-WKU series9/14/19 NEW HAMPSHIRE9/21/19 at Louisiana Tech ROAD TEAMS are 2-1 SU & 3-0 ATS in L3 games of LAT-FIU series10/5/19 MASSACHUSETTS HOME TEAMS are 4-0 SU & ATS in L4 games of MAS-FIU series10/12/19 CHARLOTTE ROAD TEAMS are 2-1 SU & 3-0 ATS in L3 games of FIU-CHA series10/19/19 UTEP10/26/19 at Middle Tenn St HOME TEAMS are 6-1 SU & ATS in L7 games of FIU-MTS series11/2/19 OLD DOMINION ROAD TEAMS are 3-0 SU & ATS in L3 games of FIU-ODU series11/9/19 at FLA Atlantic UNDERDOGS are 4-2 SU & 5-1 ATS in L6 games of FIU-FAU series11/23/19 MIAMI FL ROAD TEAMS are 0-3 SU but 3-0 ATS in L3 games of FIU-MIA series11/30/19 at Marshall HOME TEAMS are 2-3 SU but 4-1 ATS in L5 games of FIU-MAR series

9/1/18 INDIANA 28-38 L 13 W 56 O9/8/18 at Old Dominion 28-20 W -3 W 51 U9/15/18 MASSACHUSETTS 63-24 W -3.5 W 66 O9/22/18 at Miami Fl 17-31 L 26 W 58.5 U9/29/18 AK-PINE BLUFF 55-9 W -57 L 70.5 U10/13/18 MIDDLE TENN ST 24-21 W -1 W 60.5 U10/20/18 RICE 36-17 W -23 L 53.5 U10/27/18 at W Kentucky 38-17 W -3 W 54 O11/3/18 FLA ATLANTIC 14-49 L -2 L 59.5 O11/10/18 at Tx-San Antonio 45-7 W -10.5 W 48 O11/17/18 at Charlotte 42-35 W -3.5 W 45 O11/24/18 MARSHALL 25-28 L 3.5 W 52.5 O12/21/18 vs. Toledo 35-32 W 7 W 57.5 O

The Panthers are loaded with returning production at key positions, and seem primed for a breakthrough in 2019. Quarterback James Morgan returns after starting all 12 regular season games and throwing 26 touchdowns, an FIU single season record. Morgan will have every primary rusher from last season back, a unit which averaged 176 yards per game and 4.8 yards per carry. The only loss amongst the wide receivers is last year’s leader, but 1,731 yards return making this offense one of the most dangerous units in C-USA. The defense should be improved with eight returning starters. Three return along the defensive line, and backup defensive end Jason Mercier was an All-Conference Freshman. Their top two tacklers are back as well and Davis must replace one starting corner. The only thing that could hold this team back is a very challenging schedule. Three of their

opponents this season come in off of byes, and the slate is backloaded. Two of FIU’s final three games are on the road, the other is a neutral field meeting with Miami, FL. However, there is a very good chance the Panthers can enter their Nov. 9 trip to FAU with seven wins. If that’s the case then FIU needs just one win in its final three weeks to surpass its win total. The lean here is to the over.

OVER 7.5FANDUEL




TOP TRENDS FOR 2019







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FLORIDA INTERNATIONALGOLDEN PANTHERS

Points Per Game 32.9 28Yards Per Point 12.3 18Plays Per Game 68.2 99Time of Possession 31:23 333rd Down Conv. % 47.3% 11Total Yards Per Game 406.4 59Yards Per Play 6 28Rush Attempts Per Game 37 80Rush Yards Per Game 173 55Yards Per Rush Attempt 4.7 43Pass Attempts Per Game 30.3 75Completion % 65.4% 16Passing Yards Per Game 233.4 63Yards Per Pass Attempt 7.7 42Turnovers 1.1 22



2018 37 9.3 0.55 5 7 34.2 6.26 12.15 4 24.9 5.72 15.642017 Yes 30.5 0.1 0.02 13.6 7- OC 27.8 6 14.67 8-DC 27.7 5.98 14.872016 24.5 -6.8 -0.45 20.6 9 23.1 5.65 16.9 5 29.9 6.1 13.982015 23.5 -2.3 -0.44 9.2 7 25.5 5.16 13.92 8-DC 27.7 5.6 14.37

• FLORIDA INTL is 7-0 ATS (L7G) - [vs OPP] 1000 or more travel miles

• FLORIDA INTL is 1-6 ATS (L7G) at HOME - Before playing FL ATLANTIC

• FLORIDA INTL is 9-2 OVER (L3Y) - After a conference SU win





SCHEDULE STRENGTH

2019 SCHEDULE




MIDDLE TENN STBLUE RAIDERSLocation: Murfreesboro, TN Stadium: Johnny “Red” Floyd Stadium Head Coach: Rick Stockstill - 14th season2018 Record: 8-6Returning Starters: 11 - Offense: 5 - Defense: 6Offensive Coordinator: Tony FranklinDefensive Coordinator: Scott Shafer

33.5

3.5 / -0.75

36.27 (#82 OF 130)

8/31/19 at Michigan9/7/19 TENNESSEE ST9/14/19 DUKE9/28/19 at Iowa10/5/19 MARSHALL ROAD TEAMS are 3-0 SU & ATS in L3 games of MTS-MAR series10/12/19 at FLA Atlantic MIDDLE TENN ST is 9-1 SU & 8-2 ATS vs. FLA ATLANTIC since 200910/19/19 at North Texas FAVORITES are 8-1 SU & 7-1 ATS in L9 games of MTS-NTX series10/26/19 FLA INTERNATIONAL HOME TEAMS are 6-1 SU & ATS in L7 games of FIU-MTS series11/2/19 at Charlotte11/16/19 RICE11/23/19 OLD DOMINION MIDDLE TENN ST is 3-0 SU & ATS in its L3 games vs. OLD DOMINION11/30/19 at W Kentucky HOME TEAMS are 5-1 SU & 5-0 ATS in L6 games of WKU-MTS series

9/1/18 at Vanderbilt 7-35 L 3 L 56 U9/8/18 TENN-MARTIN 61-37 W -19 W 46.5 O9/15/18 at Georgia 7-49 L 33.5 L 59.5 U9/29/18 FLA ATLANTIC 25-24 W 2 W 65 U10/5/18 at Marshall 34-24 W 3 W 51 O10/13/18 at Fla International 21-24 L 1 L 60.5 U10/20/18 CHARLOTTE 21-13 W -15.5 L 51 U10/27/18 at Old Dominion 51-17 W -4.5 W 62 O11/2/18 W KENTUCKY 29-10 W -11.5 W 53 U11/10/18 at UTEP 48-32 W -13 W 48.5 O11/17/18 at Kentucky 23-34 L 16.5 W 48.5 O11/24/18 UAB 27-3 W 3 W 51.5 U12/1/18 UAB 25-27 L -1 L 44 O12/15/18 vs. Appalachian St 13-45 L 6.5 L 49 O

A brutal schedule, and an exodus of production from last season’s C-USA runner-up team has a very tough season on the horizon for the Blue Raiders. Rick Stockstill says farewell to his son, four-year quarterback Brent Stockstill, the program’s passing leader. The options to replace him are a JUCO transfer or two sophomores, so the experience is really lacking at the most important position. The top two rushers return, but this running game was pedestrian last season, averaging less than 140 yards per game and only 3.7 yards per carry. Defensively, Middle Tennessee is in better shape. They return two starters along the defensive line, and two very talented defensive backs in Jovante Moffatt and Reed Blankenship will roam the skies. However, All-Conference linebacker Darius Harris departs which leaves a gaping hole among the linebackers. The schedule is an absolute grind for the Blue Raiders. Middle Tennessee opens the year in Ann Arbor, and must meet

Iowa on the road as well in nonconference play. Then, in a five-week stretch they play four conference contenders: Marshall, FAU, North Texas and FIU. Those contests with the Owls and Mean Green come on back-to-back weeks, and both on the road. Rick Stockstill’s team will likely be underdogs in seven of their first eight games! It is an absolute under or pass for the Blue Raiders in 2019.

UNDER 5.5WESTGATE




TOP TRENDS FOR 2019







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MIDDLE TENN STBLUE RAIDERS

Points Per Game 25.5 82Yards Per Point 15 77Plays Per Game 73.5 53Time of Possession 30:53 433rd Down Conv. % 36.4% 86Total Yards Per Game 382.2 79Yards Per Play 5.2 89Rush Attempts Per Game 35.8 93Rush Yards Per Game 132.7 106Yards Per Rush Attempt 3.7 106Pass Attempts Per Game 34.8 39Completion % 68.8% 3Passing Yards Per Game 249.5 43Yards Per Pass Attempt 7.2 74Turnovers 1.5 65



2018 39 11.1 0.94 5.1 8-QB 34.5 5.92 12.08 9 23.3 4.99 14.992017 35.5 2.7 0.96 8.1 6 25.8 5.82 15.69 6-DC 23.1 4.86 14.742016 34.5 6.4 1.58 6 6- OC 37.3 6.91 13.87 5 30.9 5.34 14.312015 40 12.8 1.09 3.2 8 37 6.14 12.98 8 24.2 5.05 15.62

• MIDDLE TENN ST is 8-1 ATS (L9G) at HOME - [vs OPP] After a close SU win of 3 points or less

• MIDDLE TENN ST is 0-7 ATS (L7G) - After playing FLORIDA INTL

• MIDDLE TENN ST is 8-2 UNDER (L10G) at HOME - Underdog of 7 or less points





SCHEDULE STRENGTH

2019 SCHEDULE




WESTERN KENTUCKYHILLTOPPERSLocation: Bowling Green, KY Stadium: Houches Industries - L. T. Smith StadiumHead Coach: Tyson Helton - 1st season2018 Record: 3-9Returning Starters: 16 - Offense: 10 QB - Defense: 6Offensive Coordinator: Bryan Ellis *Defensive Coordinator: Clayton White

33

3.75 / 0.5

33.23 (#107 OF 130)

8/31/19 C ARKANSAS9/7/19 at FLA International ROAD TEAMS are 4-2 SU & 5-1 ATS in L6 games of FIU-WKU series9/14/19 LOUISVILLE9/28/19 UAB10/5/19 at Old Dominion OVER the total is 5-0 in L5 games of WKU-ODU series10/12/19 ARMY10/19/19 CHARLOTTE10/26/19 at Marshall W KENTUCKY is 3-2 SU & 5-0 ATS in its L5 games vs. MARSHALL11/2/19 FLA ATLANTIC FLA ATLANTIC is 4-2 SU & 5-1 ATS in its L6 games vs. W KENTUCKY11/9/19 at Arkansas11/23/19 at Southern Miss11/30/19 MIDDLE TENN ST HOME TEAMS are 5-1 SU & 5-0 ATS in L6 games of WKU-MTS series

8/31/18 at Wisconsin 3-34 L 35.5 W 52 U9/8/18 MAINE 28-31 L -10 L 50.5 O9/15/18 at Louisville 17-20 L 23.5 W 54 U9/22/18 at Ball St 28-20 W 3 W 52 U9/29/18 MARSHALL 17-20 L 3.5 W 51.5 U10/13/18 at Charlotte 14-40 L -9.5 L 44 O10/20/18 OLD DOMINION 34-37 L -4 L 55 O10/27/18 FLA INTERNATIONAL 17-38 L 3 L 54 O11/2/18 at Middle Tenn St 10-29 L 11.5 L 53 U11/10/18 at Fla Atlantic 15-34 L 17.5 L 60 U11/17/18 UTEP 40-16 W -7 W 48 O11/24/18 at Louisiana Tech 30-15 W 10.5 W 51 U

First-time head coach Tyson Helton inherits a Western Kentucky program in relatively solid shape after a three-win season in 2018. The offense returns 10 starters, and he gets experience at the quarterback position. Steven Duncan started five games a season ago, and Ty Storey transfers in from Arkansas where he made nine starts last year. The skill positions are in decent shape as well, with seven of the top eight pass-catchers and the leading rusher, Joshua Samuel, back in the fold. Even on defense, despite only six starters returning, there is returning production. While the linebackers get back just one returnee, he is Tacorian Darden, and All-Conference player. The Hilltoppers also have eight of their top 10 defensive linemen and six of their top eight defensive backs back in the mix. Plus, this team was very young last season, with 20

underclassmen getting the starting nod. Having said all of that, this could be a case in which the team improves, but the record does not. Western Kentucky draws FIU, Marshall and Southern Miss all on the road this season. Both UAB and FAU make the trip to L.T. Smith Stadium as well. The schedule is such a bear it is hard to look anywhere, but under five wins.

UNDER 5FANDUEL




TOP TRENDS FOR 2019







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WESTERN KENTUCKYHILLTOPPERS




2018 32 -4.7 -0.66 8.8 3 22.8 5.1 16.28 7 27.5 5.76 15.072017 Yes 30.5 -2.8 -0.42 9.5 4- OC 25.8 5.19 15.2 6-DC 28.6 5.61 13.342016 55 25.9 3.03 -15.5 8-QB 45 7.95 11.97 4 19.1 4.92 18.472015 50.5 25.5 2.4 -7.7 7 46.8 7.62 11.75 9 21.2 5.22 17.34

• W KENTUCKY is 12-3 ATS (L15G) - Underdog of more than 20 points

• W KENTUCKY is 1-8 ATS (L9G) at HOME - [vs OPP] After a blowout SU loss 20 points or more

• W KENTUCKY is 13-2 OVER (L15G) - In October





SCHEDULE STRENGTH

2019 SCHEDULE




CHARLOTTE49ERSLocation: Charlotte, NC Stadium: McColl–Richardson Field at Jerry Richardson Stadium Head Coach: Will Healy - 1st season2018 Record: 5-7Returning Starters: 12 - Offense: 5 QB - Defense: 7Offensive Coordinator: Alex Atkins *Defensive Coordinator: Brandon Cooper / Marcus West *

27

2.25 / -0.75

34.02 (#102 OF 130)

8/31/19 GARDNER WEBB9/7/19 at Appalachian St9/14/19 MASSACHUSETTS9/21/19 at Clemson9/28/19 FLA ATLANTIC UNDER the total is 4-0 in L4 games of CHA-FAU series10/12/19 at FLA International ROAD TEAMS are 2-1 SU & 3-0 ATS in L3 games of FIU-CHA series10/19/19 at W Kentucky10/26/19 NORTH TEXAS11/2/19 MIDDLE TENN ST11/9/19 at Utep11/23/19 MARSHALL HOME TEAMS are 2-1 SU & 3-0 ATS in L3 games of MAR-CHA series11/30/19 at Old Dominion

9/1/18 FORDHAM 34-10 W -16.5 W 56 U9/8/18 APPALACHIAN ST 9-45 L 14.5 L 48.5 O9/13/18 OLD DOMINION 28-25 W 1 W 47.5 O9/22/18 at Massachusetts 31-49 L 6 L 56 O9/29/18 at UAB 7-28 L 14.5 L 52 U10/13/18 W KENTUCKY 40-14 W 9.5 W 44 O10/20/18 at Middle Tenn St 13-21 L 15.5 W 51 U10/27/18 SOUTHERN MISS 20-17 W 6 W 45 U11/3/18 at Tennessee 3-14 L 21 W 46 U11/10/18 at Marshall 13-30 L 13 L 42 O11/17/18 FLA INTERNATIONAL 35-42 L 3.5 L 45 O11/24/18 at Fla Atlantic 27-24 W 16.5 W 53.5 U

The calling-card for the 49ers in 2018 was a stout defense that finished 11th in the country against the run, allowing just 3.4 yards per carry and 106 yards per game. Charlotte was actually 25th in the FBS in total defense as well, and that unit returns seven starters in what could be a surprising year. The questions will revolve around the offense, and new head coach Will Healy who comes from Austin Peay. Charlotte will have a stout running game to pair with that defense, as Benny LeMay returns for his senior season after rushing for over 1,200 yards and totaling nearly 1,500 yards from scrimmage. Healey will get the 49ers leading receiver from 2018 back, and a graduate transfer at tight end from Mississippi State. To top it off, the quarterback position is rife with experience. Chris Reynolds and Evan Shirreffs are back after combining for 10 starts here a season ago. Brett Kean transfers in from USF this season too, giving the 49ers plenty of options at quarterback. The schedule

will definitely push this intriguing team in 2019. The road trips to Appalachian State and Clemson in the nonconference portion are brutal. Then, they draw conference frontrunners FIU, FAU, North Texas and Marshall. However, getting the Mean Green and Thundering Herd at home is favorable for the 49ers. With an upgrade at head coach and a great, experienced defense it looks like Charlotte is a solid play over its win total.

OVER 4.5FANDUEL




TOP TRENDS FOR 2019







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CHARLOTTE49ERS




2018 29.5 -0.2 -0.42 15.5 8-QB, OC 24.9 5.12 14.24 10-DC 25.1 5.54 12.882017 16.5 -14.2 -0.73 22.6 6 17.3 5.16 18.37 6 31.5 5.88 13.792016 22 -7.8 -0.95 17.5 9-QB 23.8 4.99 15.69 7 31.7 5.94 14.082015 15.5 -16.2 -1.06 26.2 9 19 4.41 18.1 8-DC 35.3 5.47 11.71

• CHARLOTTE is 4-1 ATS (L2Y) - [vs OPP] After a close SU loss 3 points or less

• CHARLOTTE is 2-8 ATS (L10G) - Nonconference VS NON-POWER 5

• CHARLOTTE is 10-4 UNDER (L14G) - In October





SCHEDULE STRENGTH

2019 SCHEDULE




OLD DOMINIONMONARCHSLocation: Norfolk, VA Stadium: Komblau Field at S. B. Ballard Stadium Head Coach: Bobby Wilder - 11th season2018 Record: 4-8Returning Starters: 9 - Offense: 4 - Defense: 5Offensive Coordinator: Brian ScottDefensive Coordinator: David Blackwell *

23.5

2.75 / -0.5

32.81 (#109 OF 130)

8/31/19 NORFOLK ST9/7/19 at Virginia Tech9/21/19 at Virginia9/28/19 EAST CAROLINA10/5/19 W KENTUCKY OVER the total is 5-0 in L5 games of WKU-ODU series10/12/19 at Marshall FAVORITES are 5-0 SU & ATS in L5 games of MAR-ODU series10/19/19 at Uab10/26/19 FLA ATLANTIC OVER the total is 4-0 in L4 games of ODU-FAU series11/2/19 at FLA International ROAD TEAMS are 3-0 SU & ATS in L3 games of FIU-ODU series11/9/19 TX-SAN ANTONIO11/23/19 at Middle Tenn St MIDDLE TENN ST is 3-0 SU & ATS in its L3 games vs. OLD DOMINION11/30/19 CHARLOTTE

9/1/18 at Liberty 10-52 L -5 L 58.5 O9/8/18 FLA INTERNATIONAL 20-28 L 3 L 51 U9/13/18 at Charlotte 25-28 L -1 L 47.5 O9/22/18 VIRGINIA TECH 49-35 W 28.5 W 52.5 O9/29/18 at East Carolina 35-37 L 7 W 61.5 O10/6/18 at Fla Atlantic 33-52 L 13.5 L 63.5 O10/13/18 MARSHALL 20-42 L 4 L 56.5 O10/20/18 at W Kentucky 37-34 W 4 W 55 O10/27/18 MIDDLE TENN ST 17-51 L 4.5 L 62 O11/10/18 NORTH TEXAS 34-31 W 15.5 W 67.5 U11/17/18 VMI 77-14 W -32 W 73.5 O11/24/18 at Rice 13-27 L -8.5 L 61.5 U

It has been quite the average run for the Monarchs the last five years, with just one winning season during that span. From the looks of it, that trend will continue. Old Dominion returns just nine starters from last year’s four-win team, and Bobby Wilder is filling the holes with JUCOs and transfers. On defense alone, the Monarchs added a total of seven from the junior college ranks, four along the defensive line and three in the defensive backfield. This was a defense that allowed 35.9 points per game and 6.2 yards per play a season ago. While there is nowhere to go but up, not much improvement should be expected. On offense, it is more of the same. Messiah deWeaver, another JUCO transfer, is expected to start at quarterback and they lose a pair of 1,000 yard receivers. Their top returning receivers combined for just 248 yards last season. The schedule makes it even worse for the Monarchs. They go to

Blacksburg in their second game, a huge revenge spot for Virginia Tech which lost 49-35 to ODU last year at Foreman Field. That is followed up by a road game against Virginia, and the team gets to play four conference contenders in a four-week stretch. Three of those games (Marshall, UAB, FIU) will be on the road. This under is the strongest recommendation of the C-USA team win totals.

UNDER 4.5FANDUEL




TOP TRENDS FOR 2019







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OLD DOMINIONMONARCHS




2018 26.5 -4.3 -0.49 13.9 9-QB 30.1 5.71 14.31 7 34.4 6.2 13.592017 22.5 -6.2 -0.39 15.9 8-QB 23.5 5.16 14.82 6 29.8 5.55 13.732016 36 7.1 0.93 4.5 9 34.7 6.38 12.49 8 27.6 5.44 13.742015 22 -11.3 -0.31 18.7 8-QB 23.4 5.36 15.89 5 34.7 5.66 12.57

• OLD DOMINION is 7-2-1 ATS (L10G) at HOME - In November

• OLD DOMINION is 2-8 ATS (L10G) on ROAD - Underdog of more than 14 points

• OLD DOMINION is 11-4-1 OVER (L5Y) - In October





SCHEDULE STRENGTH

2019 SCHEDULE




SOUTHERN MISSGOLDEN EAGLESLocation: Hattiesburg, MS Stadium: Carlisle-Faulkner Field at M.M. Roberts Stadium Head Coach: Jay Hopson - 4th season2018 Record: 6-5Returning Starters: 16 - Offense: 10 QB - Defense: 6Offensive Coordinator: Buster Faulkner *Defensive Coordinator: Tim Billings / Derek Nicholson

39.5

3.25 / 0.5

35.29 (#93 OF 130)

8/31/19 ALCORN ST9/7/19 at Mississippi St9/14/19 at Troy9/21/19 at Alabama ALABAMA is 9-1 SU & 7-3 ATS in its L10 games hosting SOUTHERN MISS9/28/19 UTEP FAVORITES are 7-0 SU & 5-2 ATS in L7 games of SM-UTEP series10/12/19 NORTH TEXAS UNDER the total is 5-2 in L7 games of SM-NTX series10/19/19 at Louisiana Tech ROAD TEAMS are 5-1 ATS in L6 games of SM-LAT series10/26/19 at Rice OVER the total is 8-0 in L8 games of SM-RIC series11/9/19 UAB ROAD TEAMS are 4-2 SU & 6-0 ATS in L6 games of SM-UAB series11/16/19 at Tx-San Antonio UNDERDOGS are 2-3 SU but 4-1 ATS in L5 games of SM-UTSA series11/23/19 W KENTUCKY11/30/19 at FLA Atlantic

9/1/18 JACKSON ST 55-7 W -33 W 51 O9/8/18 LA MONROE 20-21 L -6 L 67 U9/22/18 RICE 40-22 W -13.5 W 55 O9/29/18 at Auburn 13-24 L 27.5 W 50.5 U10/13/18 at North Texas 7-30 L 7 L 53 U10/20/18 TX-SAN ANTONIO 27-17 W -15 L 43 O10/27/18 at Charlotte 17-20 L -6 L 45 U11/3/18 MARSHALL 26-24 W 3 W 47.5 O11/10/18 at UAB 23-26 L 14 W 45 O11/17/18 LOUISIANA TECH 21-20 W -2 L 45.5 U11/24/18 at UTEP 39-7 W -14 W 44 O

Three of the last four seasons for Southern Miss have ended with winning records, and 2019 looks like it could follow in that trend. The offense should be much more consistent, and could blow away the 2018 production of 19.8 points per game with 10 returning starters. Among them will be quarterback Jack Abraham, who started nine games last year, and led the FBS in completion percentage at 73.1 percent. All three of the Golden Eagles’ top rushers return, too. The top five receivers are all back as well, and four of the five starting offensive lineman from last year will be on the field. The defense is not lucky enough to have as much returning production, but still return six members of 2018’s unit. The defensive line is still anchored by All-Conference defensive end Jacques Turner, and they land a grad transfer from Penn State. The biggest losses are at linebacker, which sees four of their top five depart, but three starters are back in

the defensive backfield. Southern Miss opens up with a gauntlet of nonconference opponents: Road trips to Mississippi State, Troy and Alabama. North Texas and Florida Atlantic are on the schedule as well. The blueprint for improvement is there, but eight wins seems like the program’s ceiling. If that’s the case, there is little room for error when betting this team Over its win total.

OVER 7.5FANDUEL


2019 CONFERENCE USA WEST DIVISION


TOP TRENDS FOR 2019







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SOUTHERN MISSGOLDEN EAGLES

Points Per Game 23.3 98Yards Per Point 15.4 84Plays Per Game 74.1 47Time of Possession 32:28 193rd Down Conv. % 33.3% 114Total Yards Per Game 358.7 102Yards Per Play 4.8 110Rush Attempts Per Game 35.4 99Rush Yards Per Game 103.7 122Yards Per Rush Attempt 2.9 127Pass Attempts Per Game 35.6 32Completion % 68.5% 4Passing Yards Per Game 255 38Yards Per Pass Attempt 7.2 75Turnovers 2 114



2018 38 5.4 0.45 8.8 5-QB 28.9 5.08 12.61 4-DC 23.5 4.63 12.052017 34.5 6.2 0.86 6.9 6-QB 29.7 5.88 14.57 6 23.5 5.02 13.892016 Yes 36 4 0.17 4.5 7- OC 32.5 6.03 14.65 6-DC 28.5 5.87 11.52015 43.5 16.7 1.89 0.8 10 38.7 7.03 13.47 5 22 5.13 16.53

• SOUTHERN MISS is 21-9 ATS (S2000) on ROAD - After a blowout SU win of 20 points or more

• SOUTHERN MISS is 2-8 ATS (L10G) - After playing a game that went into overtime

• SOUTHERN MISS is 8-0 OVER (L8G) - VS RICE





SCHEDULE STRENGTH

2019 SCHEDULE




NORTH TEXASMEAN GREENLocation: Denton, TX Stadium: Apogee Stadium Head Coach: Seth Littrell - 4th season2018 Record: 9-4Returning Starters: 13 - Offense: 8 QB - Defense: 5Offensive Coordinator: Bodie Reeder / Tommy Mainord *Defensive Coordinator: Troy Reffett

38.5

3.5 / -0.5

30.52 (#125 OF 130)

8/31/19 ABILENE CHRISTIAN9/7/19 at SMU FAVORITES are 5-0 SU & ATS in L5 games of NTX-SMU series9/14/19 at California9/21/19 TX-SAN ANTONIO HOME TEAMS are 4-2 SU & 6-0 ATS in L6 games of NTX-UTSA series9/28/19 HOUSTON FAVORITES are 3-0 SU & ATS in L3 games of HOU-NTX series10/12/19 at Southern Miss UNDER the total is 5-2 in L7 games of SM-NTX series10/19/19 MIDDLE TENN ST FAVORITES are 8-1 SU & 7-1 ATS in L9 games of MTS-NTX series10/26/19 at Charlotte11/2/19 UTEP HOME TEAMS are 5-1 ATS in L6 games of NTX-UTEP series11/9/19 at Louisiana Tech ROAD TEAMS are 7-1 SU & ATS in L8 games of NTX-LAT series11/23/19 at Rice ROAD TEAMS are 3-2 SU & 5-0 ATS in L5 games of NTX-RIC series11/30/19 UAB UAB is 2-1 SU & 3-0 ATS in its L3 games vs. NORTH TEXAS

9/1/18 SMU 46-23 W -3 W 71 U9/8/18 INCARNATE WORD 58-16 W -44 L 79 U9/15/18 at Arkansas 44-17 W 5 W 63 U9/22/18 at Liberty 47-7 W -11.5 W 66.5 U9/29/18 LOUISIANA TECH 27-29 L -7.5 L 62 U10/6/18 at UTEP 27-24 W -25.5 L 54 U10/13/18 SOUTHERN MISS 30-7 W -7 W 53 U10/20/18 at UAB 21-29 L 2.5 L 53.5 U10/27/18 RICE 41-17 W -30 L 58.5 U11/10/18 at Old Dominion 31-34 L -15.5 L 67.5 U11/15/18 FLA ATLANTIC 41-38 W -4.5 L 62.5 O11/24/18 at Tx-San Antonio 24-21 W -24.5 L 52 U12/15/18 vs. Utah St 13-52 L 7 L 67.5 U

Seth Littrell’s Mean Green roll into the 2019 campaign on the heels of back-to-back nine-win seasons, primed for another winning year and a potential second West division title in three years. North Texas returns eight starters to an offense that averaged 34.6 points and 461 total yards per game a season ago, including All-Conference quarterback Mason Fine. Fine gets his leading wideout Rico Bussey back for his senior season and the program returns every running back. It is safe to say this offense should be able to match the numbers from last season. Defensively, there are fewer sure things at key positions. North Texas sees four All-Conference players depart on that side of the ball, two at linebacker and two at cornerback. In a conference littered with returning quarterbacks and skilled offenses, the losses on defense could haunt the Mean Green. The schedule presents a challenge as well. North Texas has a very arduous road slate with

nonconference trips to SMU and Cal, and conference trips to Southern Miss, Charlotte and Louisiana Tech. The Mean Green get no breaks at home either, as Houston and UAB are among their visiting opponents. North Texas will be sizable favorites in four contests this season, and should be favored at home against Southern Miss, Middle Tennessee and UAB. It will be a sweat, but the lean here is to the over.

OVER 7.5FANDUEL




TOP TRENDS FOR 2019







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NORTH TEXASMEAN GREEN




2018 39 13.7 1.07 -2.6 9-QB 36.1 6.31 12.97 8 22.4 5.24 16.182017 35.5 5.1 0.77 4.8 6 36.5 6.53 13.2 5 31.4 5.76 13.342016 Yes 24.5 -4.9 -0.69 15.9 6-QB, OC 23.7 5.15 14.62 8-DC 28.5 5.83 14.732015 18 -17.7 -1.24 22.4 6 17 4.95 20.44 6-DC 34.7 6.19 13.41

• NORTH TEXAS is 8-2 ATS (L10G) at HOME - More than 6 days rest

• NORTH TEXAS is 5-12 ATS (L5Y) on ROAD - VS CUSA

• NORTH TEXAS is 7-0 UNDER (L7G) - [vs OPP] After a close SU loss 3 points or less





SCHEDULE STRENGTH

2019 SCHEDULE




LOUISIANA TECHBULLDOGSLocation: Ruston, LA Stadium: Joe Aillet Stadium Head Coach: Skip Holtz - 7th season2018 Record: 8-5Returning Starters: 11 - Offense: 6 QB - Defense: 5Offensive Coordinator: Todd FitchDefensive Coordinator: Bob Diaco *

37.5

3 / 0.5

28.75 (#128 OF 130)

8/31/19 at Texas9/7/19 GRAMBLING9/14/19 at Bowling Green9/21/19 FLA INTERNATIONAL ROAD TEAMS are 2-1 SU & 3-0 ATS in L3 games of LAT-FIU series9/28/19 at Rice FAVORITES are 6-0 SU & 5-1 ATS in L6 games of RIC-LAT series10/12/19 MASSACHUSETTS10/19/19 SOUTHERN MISS ROAD TEAMS are 5-1 ATS in L6 games of SM-LAT series10/26/19 at Utep ROAD TEAMS are 7-3 ATS in LAT-UTEP series since 200111/9/19 NORTH TEXAS ROAD TEAMS are 7-1 SU & ATS in L8 games of NTX-LAT series11/16/19 at Marshall11/23/19 at Uab ROAD TEAMS are 4-1 SU & ATS in L5 games of UAB-LAT series11/30/19 TX-SAN ANTONIO FAVORITES are 3-0 SU & ATS in L3 games of LAT-UTSA series

9/1/18 at S Alabama 30-26 W -11 L 53.5 O9/8/18 SOUTHERN 54-17 W -34.5 W 64.5 O9/22/18 at LSU 21-38 L 18.5 W 51.5 O9/29/18 at North Texas 29-27 W 7.5 W 62 U10/6/18 UAB 7-28 L -7 L 57 U10/13/18 at Tx-San Antonio 31-3 W -13.5 W 46 U10/20/18 UTEP 31-24 W -21 L 51 O10/26/18 at Fla Atlantic 21-13 W 3.5 W 58.5 U11/3/18 at Mississippi St 3-45 L 23 L 48.5 U11/10/18 RICE 28-13 W -23 L 53 U11/17/18 at Southern Miss 20-21 L 2 W 45.5 U11/24/18 W KENTUCKY 15-30 L -10.5 L 51 U12/22/18 at Hawaii 31-14 W -1 W 61 U

There are not many teams in the country that lost as much production on defense as Louisiana Tech did this offseason. The Bulldogs watched each of their starting defensive linemen leave, including defensive end Jaylon Ferguson who broke the NCAA career sack record with 45 takedowns. In all, Skip Holtz gets back five starters on defense, and there is a clear path toward regression from last season in which the Bulldogs allowed 23 points per game. The offense returns eight starters, but the unit will need more production from quarterback J’Mar Smith. Smith has averaged just 7.05 yards per attempt, and completed no more than 57.3 percent of his passes as a full-time starter the last two seasons. The schedule does Louisiana Tech no favors either. The Bulldogs draw all but two of the conference contenders, being forced to go on the road for games with Marshall

and UAB. Florida International, Southern Miss and North Texas all make the trip to Ruston. Having said that, they will face five teams that won four or fewer games in 2018, giving Louisiana Tech an avenue to surpass its win total. If the Bulldogs can sweep those five games they will be live for an eight win season. This is a very slight lean to the over for Louisiana Tech.

OVER 7.5FANDUEL




TOP TRENDS FOR 2019







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LOUISIANA TECHBULLDOGS

Points Per Game 22.2 107Yards Per Point 16.2 104Plays Per Game 72.5 62Time of Possession 30:29 483rd Down Conv. % 38.3% 68Total Yards Per Game 359.9 99Yards Per Play 5 104Rush Attempts Per Game 33.7 111Rush Yards Per Game 125 112Yards Per Rush Attempt 3.7 103Pass Attempts Per Game 36.2 27Completion % 56.1% 95Passing Yards Per Game 234.9 61Yards Per Pass Attempt 6.5 103Turnovers 1.5 72



2018 33.5 3.9 0.46 8.2 8-QB 28.1 5.47 13.72 7 24.2 5.01 14.072017 37.5 3.6 0.14 4.4 5-QB 29.9 5.83 13.79 6 26.3 5.69 14.82016 44.5 15.2 2.35 -4 6-QB, OC 41.8 7.84 12.78 3 26.6 5.49 15.182015 41 13 1.63 -2.5 7-QB 35.7 6.85 13.38 6-DC 22.7 5.23 16.43

• LOUISIANA TECH is 12-3 ATS (L15G) on ROAD - Favorite of 7 or less points

• LOUISIANA TECH is 1-6 ATS (L7G) at HOME - After SU loss

• LOUISIANA TECH is 7-0 UNDER (L7G) on ROAD - [vs OPP] After a close SU loss 3 points or less





SCHEDULE STRENGTH

2019 SCHEDULE




UABBLAZERSLocation: Birmingham, AL Stadium: Legion Field Head Coach: Bill Clark - 4th season2018 Record: 11-3Returning Starters: 8 - Offense: 4 QB - Defense: 4Offensive Coordinator: Bryant VincentDefensive Coordinator: David Reeves

34

3 / 0

26.02 (#130 OF 130)

8/29/19 ALABAMA ST9/7/19 at Akron9/21/19 S ALABAMA9/28/19 at W Kentucky10/5/19 RICE UAB is 3-1 SU & 4-0 ATS in its L4 games hosting RICE10/12/19 at Tx-San Antonio10/19/19 OLD DOMINION11/2/19 at Tennessee UAB is 0-4 SU but 4-0 ATS in its L4 games at TENNESSEE11/9/19 at Southern Miss ROAD TEAMS are 4-2 SU & 6-0 ATS in L6 games of SM-UAB series11/16/19 UTEP ROAD TEAMS are 4-2 SU & 5-1 ATS in L6 games of UAB-UTEP series11/23/19 LOUISIANA TECH ROAD TEAMS are 4-1 SU & ATS in L5 games of UAB-LAT series11/30/19 at North Texas UAB is 2-1 SU & 3-0 ATS in its L3 games vs. NORTH TEXAS

8/30/18 SAVANNAH ST 52-0 W -39 W 55 U9/8/18 at Coastal Carolina 24-47 L -8.5 L 55 O9/15/18 TULANE 31-24 W 3.5 W 58 U9/29/18 CHARLOTTE 28-7 W -14.5 W 52 U10/6/18 at Louisiana Tech 28-7 W 7 W 57 U10/13/18 at Rice 42-0 W -17 W 53 U10/20/18 NORTH TEXAS 29-21 W -2.5 W 53.5 U10/27/18 at UTEP 19-0 W -15.5 W 50 U11/3/18 TX-SAN ANTONIO 52-3 W -21.5 W 42.5 O11/10/18 SOUTHERN MISS 26-23 W -14 L 45 O11/17/18 at Texas A&M 20-41 L 16.5 L 46.5 O11/24/18 at Middle Tenn St 3-27 L -3 L 51.5 U12/1/18 at Middle Tenn St 27-25 W 1 W 44 O12/18/18 vs. N Illinois 37-13 W -1.5 W 41 O

Bill Clark has done a tremendous job in Birmingham during his tenure, and it culminated last season in a C-USA Title. However, all good things must come to an end, and it seems like this season is that end for the Blazers. The team from a season ago was loaded with returning production, and had 23 seniors make nearly 70 percent of the starts. Now, the rebuild begins anew on both sides of the ball with just eight total returning starters. Clark is set at quarterback though, which always helps. Tyler Johnston will be under center after starting five games in 2018, taking the reins for good at season’s end in the C-USA Title and bowl games. Johnston will have his leading rusher back in Spencer Brown, but his top returning receiver reeled in just 197 yards. Oh, and four of the starting offensive linemen depart as well. The front seven which limited opponents to just 3.4 yards per carry and 4.8 yards per play returns

just two members. The Blazers’ road schedule will be tough to navigate, as they go to WKU, Southern Miss, Tennessee and North Texas. The rest of their schedule is totally manageable, and in reality they play just three teams that posted winning records in 2018. However, factoring in expected improvement for their opponents seven wins seems like an absolute ceiling for this team. Hit the under.

UNDER 7FANDUEL




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UABBLAZERS




2018 44 12.4 0.97 -5.1 9-QB, OC 31.7 5.82 12.64 7 19.3 4.85 15.52017 28.5 0.2 -0.25 12.6 0-QB, OC 27.8 5.2 12.49 4-DC 27.6 5.46 13.642016 N/A N/A2015 N/A N/A

• UAB is 7-0 ATS (L7G) at HOME - Nonconference games

• UAB is 2-8 ATS (L10G) on ROAD - After a close SU win of 3 points or less

• UAB is 7-0 OVER (L7G) on ROAD - Underdog of more than 14 points





SCHEDULE STRENGTH

2019 SCHEDULE




UTSAROADRUNNERSLocation: San Antonio, TX Stadium: Alamodome Head Coach: Frank Wilson - 4th season2018 Record: 3-9Returning Starters: 13 - Offense: 8 QB - Defense: 5Offensive Coordinator: Jeff Kastl *Defensive Coordinator: Jason Rollins

21

3 / 0

34.56 (#96 OF 130)

8/31/19 INCARNATE WORD9/7/19 at Baylor9/14/19 ARMY9/21/19 at North Texas HOME TEAMS are 4-2 SU & 6-0 ATS in L6 games of NTX-UTSA series10/5/19 at Utep ROAD TEAMS are 4-2 SU & 6-0 ATS in L6 games of UTSA-UTEP series10/12/19 UAB10/19/19 RICE UNDER the total is 6-1 in L7 games of RIC-UTSA series11/2/19 at Texas A&M11/9/19 at Old Dominion11/16/19 SOUTHERN MISS UNDERDOGS are 2-3 SU but 4-1 ATS in L5 games of SM-UTSA series11/23/19 FLA ATLANTIC11/30/19 at Louisiana Tech FAVORITES are 3-0 SU & ATS in L3 games of LAT-UTSA series

9/1/18 at Arizona St 7-49 L 17 L 52 O9/8/18 BAYLOR 20-37 L 16.5 L 54.5 O9/15/18 at Kansas St 17-41 L 20 L 46.5 O9/22/18 TEXAS ST UNIV 25-21 W -7 L 48.5 U9/29/18 UTEP 30-21 W -10.5 L 47 O10/6/18 at Rice 20-3 W 1.5 W 50 U10/13/18 LOUISIANA TECH 3-31 L 13.5 L 46 U10/20/18 at Southern Miss 17-27 L 15 W 43 O11/3/18 at UAB 3-52 L 21.5 L 42.5 O11/10/18 FLA INTERNATIONAL 7-45 L 10.5 L 48 O11/17/18 at Marshall 0-23 L 26.5 W 47 U11/24/18 NORTH TEXAS 21-24 L 24.5 W 52 U

After back-to-back six-win seasons, UTSA found itself back in the cellar of C-USA with a three-win year in 2018. The issues start on offense, and with eight returning starters this unit must improve on the 14.2 points per game mark posted last season. An offensive line that loses just a single backup will help to make things better in San Antonio. The quarterback position will be between sophomore Lowell Narcisse or JUCO Cordale Grundy. Regardless, there is little experience between the two, but Grundy did get in seven starts last year. The defensive line is in good shape with nine of 10 guys back, and there should be an improvement in a unit that allowed 436 yards per game. The Roadrunners have a manageable schedule as well. They get both UTEP and Rice on the schedule, but have to go on the road to face the Miners.

Road games against Baylor, North Texas and Texas A&M figure to be lopsided. Plus, Army, Southern Miss and FAU are all part of the home schedule for UTSA. With a very limited amount of opportunities to snag wins on this schedule there is no choice but to recommend the Under for the Roadrunners’ win total.

UNDER 2.5FANDUEL




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UTSAROADRUNNERS




2018 19 -11.8 -2.01 24.1 4-OC 19 4.11 13.64 6-DC 30.9 6.12 13.462017 34.5 5.6 0.58 3.5 7 22.7 5.6 16.88 7 17.1 5.02 172016 Yes 34.5 3 -0.23 7 7-QB, OC 27.4 5.43 13.92 5-DC 24.3 5.66 16.222015 22 -6.1 -0.46 17 2-QB 22.1 5.24 17.15 4 28.2 5.7 15.03

• TEXAS-SAN ANTONIO is 5-1-1 ATS (L7G) - On grass field

• TEXAS-SAN ANTONIO is 0-7 ATS (L7G) at HOME - As favorite

• TEXAS-SAN ANTONIO is 8-2 UNDER (L10G) on ROAD - In October





SCHEDULE STRENGTH

2019 SCHEDULE




RICEOWLSLocation: Houston, TX Stadium: Rice Stadium Head Coach: Mike Bloomgren - 2nd season2018 Record: 2-11Returning Starters: 12 - Offense: 6 - Defense: 6Offensive Coordinator: Jerry MackDefensive Coordinator: Brian Smith

20.5

2 / -0.5

37.63 (#76 OF 130)

8/30/19 at Army ROAD TEAMS are 4-3 SU & 5-1 ATS in L7 games of RIC-ARM series9/7/19 WAKE FOREST9/14/19 vs. Texas HOME TEAMS are 12-3 SU & 10-5 ATS in RIC-TEX series since 19929/21/19 BAYLOR FAVORITES are 8-0 SU & 7-1 ATS in L8 games of BAY-RIC series9/28/19 LOUISIANA TECH FAVORITES are 6-0 SU & 5-1 ATS in L6 games of RIC-LAT series10/5/19 at Uab UAB is 3-1 SU & 4-0 ATS in its L4 games hosting RICE10/19/19 at Tx-San Antonio UNDER the total is 6-1 in L7 games of RIC-UTSA series10/26/19 SOUTHERN MISS OVER the total is 8-0 in L8 games of SM-RIC series11/2/19 MARSHALL HOME TEAMS are 5-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in L6 games of MAR-RIC series11/16/19 at Middle Tenn St11/23/19 NORTH TEXAS ROAD TEAMS are 3-2 SU & 5-0 ATS in L5 games of NTX-RIC series11/30/19 at Utep RICE is 11-5 SU & 13-3 ATS vs. UTEP since 2003

8/25/18 PRAIRIE VIEW 31-28 W -23 L 58.5 O9/1/18 HOUSTON 27-45 L 25 W 56 O9/8/18 at Hawaii 29-43 L 17 W 70 O9/22/18 at Southern Miss 22-40 L 13.5 L 55 O9/29/18 at Wake Forest 24-56 L 28 L 66 O10/6/18 TX-SAN ANTONIO 3-20 L -1.5 L 50 U10/13/18 UAB 0-42 L 17 L 53 U10/20/18 at Fla International 17-36 L 23 W 53.5 U10/27/18 at North Texas 17-41 L 30 W 58.5 U11/3/18 UTEP 26-34 L 1.5 L 45.5 O11/10/18 at Louisiana Tech 13-28 L 23 W 53 U11/17/18 at LSU 10-42 L 41.5 W 51.5 O11/24/18 OLD DOMINION 27-13 W 8.5 W 61.5 U

Obviously the schedule is a huge part of handicapping win totals, as is the makeup of a program’s roster. When it comes to Rice, it’s hard to get past what looks like a brutal schedule without looking right at the Under as a bet. The Owls will face four teams that posted double-digit wins in 2018, five teams that had nine or more wins and nine teams on the schedule had straight up winning records. Mike Bloomgren enters his second year at the helm, and the experience is solid. After all, he was forced to start the third most freshman in the FBS last season. The program adds a pair of Harvard transfers at quarterback and running back, and they only lose Brendan Harmon at receiver, a whopping 64 yards of production. On defense, they lose one backup in the linebacker group, and four of eight are returning

in the defensive backfield. Rice, despite all that, will likely be heavy underdogs in every single game this season. The best chance for a win seems to be in the final game of the regular season, on the road against UTEP and that is by no means a circle win. It’s hard to make a case for a two win season in Houston, so take the under here.

UNDER 2.5FANDUEL




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RICEOWLS




2018 Yes 21.5 -12.6 -1.56 27.2 6-QB, OC 20.8 5.04 15.96 5-DC 33.4 6.6 12.82017 19.5 -12.8 -0.14 19.1 8-QB 20.1 5.86 17.78 8-DC 32.9 6 12.092016 21 -8.7 -1.87 21.7 7-QB 24.5 5.33 16.18 9 33.2 7.2 14.742015 23 -8 -1.59 14.6 6 25.2 5.42 16.24 3 33.2 7.01 13.25

• RICE is 7-0 ATS (L7G) - Before playing NORTH TEXAS

• RICE is 2-8 ATS (L10G) - [vs OPP] After playing a game that went into overtime

• RICE is 8-0 OVER (L8G) - VS SOUTHERN MISS





SCHEDULE STRENGTH

2019 SCHEDULE




UTEPMINERSLocation: El Paso, TX Stadium: Sun Bowl Stadium Head Coach: Dana Dimel - 2nd season2018 Record: 1-11Returning Starters: 11 - Offense: 7 QB - Defense: 4Offensive Coordinator: Mike CanalesDefensive Coordinator: Mike Cox

16.5

2.25 / -0.75

30.58 (#124 OF 130)

8/31/19 HOUSTON BAPTIST9/7/19 at Texas Tech HOME TEAMS are 3-2 SU & 4-1 ATS in L5 games of TT-UTEP series9/21/19 NEVADA ROAD TEAMS are 1-2 SU but 3-0 ATS in L3 games of UTEP-NEV series9/28/19 at Southern Miss FAVORITES are 7-0 SU & 5-2 ATS in L7 games of SM-UTEP series10/5/19 TX-SAN ANTONIO ROAD TEAMS are 4-2 SU & 6-0 ATS in L6 games of UTSA-UTEP series10/19/19 at FLA International10/26/19 LOUISIANA TECH ROAD TEAMS are 7-3 ATS in LAT-UTEP series since 200111/2/19 at North Texas HOME TEAMS are 5-1 ATS in L6 games of NTX-UTEP series11/9/19 CHARLOTTE11/16/19 at Uab ROAD TEAMS are 4-2 SU & 5-1 ATS in L6 games of UAB-UTEP series11/23/19 at New Mexico St FAVORITES are 6-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in L6 games of UTEP-NMS series11/30/19 RICE RICE is 11-5 SU & 13-3 ATS vs. UTEP since 2003

9/1/18 N ARIZONA 10-30 L 7 L 52.5 U9/8/18 at UNLV 24-52 L 22.5 L 54 O9/15/18 at Tennessee 0-24 L 33.5 W 51.5 U9/22/18 NEW MEXICO ST 20-27 L 5.5 L 51.5 U9/29/18 at Tx-San Antonio 21-30 L 10.5 W 47 O10/6/18 NORTH TEXAS 24-27 L 25.5 W 54 U10/20/18 at Louisiana Tech 24-31 L 21 W 51 O10/27/18 UAB 0-19 L 15.5 L 50 U11/3/18 at Rice 34-26 W -1.5 W 45.5 O11/10/18 MIDDLE TENN ST 32-48 L 13 L 48.5 O11/17/18 at W Kentucky 16-40 L 7 L 48 O11/24/18 SOUTHERN MISS 7-39 L 14 L 44 O

An improved running game, offensive line and health at the quarterback position will be key for UTEP in 2018. Quarterback Kai Locksley is back for another go, will hopefully be able to make more than just eight starts as he did last season. Locksley will need to get a bit more explosive with his play though, as he was extremely pedestrian passing for 937 yards and three touchdowns in those eight starts. He will have a brand new crew to break in at receiver, as five of the top six are gone, but four return along the offensive line which should help immensely. The defense will likely be the Achilles heel as head coach Dana Dimel transitions this unit to a 3-3-5 scheme. UTEP loses its top two tacklers, and three starters at defensive back. The Miners allowed 32.8 points per game last year, and will likely approach that figure once more. Dimel catches a break with

the schedule, with UTEP getting four truly winnable games against Houston Baptist, Nevada, UTSA and Rice. All of those will be at home. It is not a stretch to say the Miners will more than likely finish winless on the road, but their other home opponents (Louisiana Tech and Charlotte) are no powerhouses. Four wins are attainable for UTEP, so the lean here is over.

OVER 3FANDUEL




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UTEPMINERS


Points Per Game 33 93Yards Per Point 12.2 1193rd Down Conv. % 36.6% 38Total Yards Per Game 401.6 66Yards Per Play 5.9 89Rush Yards Per Game 203.8 97Yards Per Rush Attempt 5.1 105Completion % 62.2% 88Passing Yards Per Game 197.8 27Yards Per Pass Attempt 7.4 66Sacks 1.7 98Turnovers 1 115


2018 Yes 16.5 -13.9 -0.88 16.5 6-QB, OC 19.7 4.98 15.82 6-DC 33.6 5.86 11.62017 13 -16.2 -1.25 25.1 5 14.8 4.5 17.14 7 31 5.75 13.272016 21 -9.7 -0.25 19.7 7-QB, OC 23.3 5.97 15.7 6-DC 33 6.22 12.812015 21 -11.2 -1.84 24.9 6-QB 18.2 4.99 19.08 5 29.4 6.83 14.58

• UTEP is 6-2 ATS (L8G) - Revenging a loss vs - LOUISIANA TECH

• UTEP is 2-10 ATS (L12G) on ROAD - [vs OPP] AP top 25

• UTEP is 6-1 UNDER (L7G) at HOME - Underdog of more than 20 points



FBS INDEPENDENTSPREVIEW

2019 Home Road Schd S.S. ALL GAMES CONFERENCETeam SM PR Field Field Strg Rank PrjW's PrjL's PrjW's PrjL'sARMY 41 2.5 1 26.19 129 10.0 3.0 - -NOTRE DAME 60.5 3.5 0 43.88 48 9.5 2.5 - -BYU 46.5 3 0.25 41.52 62 7.0 5.0 - -LIBERTY 28 3 0.5 29.94 126 5.3 6.7 - -MASSACHUSETTS 21.5 3.5 -0.5 32.19 114 3.3 8.7 - -NEW MEXICO ST 23 2.75 -0.5 37.17 78 3.1 8.9 - -

2019 WIN PROJECTIONS

Notre Dame and ArmyA year after posting a perfect record in the regular season, the Fighting Irish figure to be favored in all seven home games. But a couple of those — against Southern California on Oct. 12 and Virginia Tech on Nov. 2 — could be tricky spots because sandwiched in between is a monster road test at Michigan. Irish coach Brian Kelly will be seeing a determined Jim Harbaugh with revenge in his eyes. Army (11-2) finished last season with one fewer win than Notre Dame. The Black Knights swept military rivals Air Force and Navy but failed to cover the spread in either narrow win.

LibertyFormer Ole Miss coach Hugh Freeze is getting an opportunity to revive his troubled coaching career with the Flames. In 2017, Liberty upended Baylor as a 30-point ‘dog. Freeze will look to pull off an upset or two with Syracuse, Rutgers, Brigham Young and Virginia on the schedule this year.

MassachusettsNew coach Walt Bell inherits only 10 returning starters from a 4-8 team. In Phil Steele’s preseason guide, the Minuteman are ranked No. 130 of 130 teams.

THE FAVORITES

LIVE DOG

DEAD MONEY

BIG GAMES ON THE BOARDUtah at BYU, Aug. 29A victory over the rival Utes would ease some of the Cougars’ scheduling concerns. Utah opened as a 6-point favorite. BYU’s next three games — at Tennessee, USC, Washington — make for a rough September stretch.

Army at Michigan, Sept. 7The Knights visit Ann Arbor seven weeks before the Irish do.

Notre Dame at Georgia, Sept. 21The Bulldogs were 5-point ‘dogs in a 20-19 win at ND

in 2017. That was Georgia quarterback Jake Fromm’s first road start. The Irish are 11-point road ‘dogs in the rematch.

Notre Dame at Michigan, Oct. 26The Wolverines opened as 7-point favorites.

Army vs. Navy, Dec. 14The Black Knights have won three in a row to flip the rivalry.





SCHEDULE STRENGTH

2019 SCHEDULE




2019 FBS INDEPENDENTS

ARMYBLACK KNIGHTSLocation: West Point, NY Stadium: Blaik Field at Michie Stadium Head Coach: Jeff Monken - 6th season2018 Record: 11-2Returning Starters: 11 - Offense: 7 QB - Defense: 4Offensive Coordinator: Brent DavisDefensive Coordinator: John Loose *

41

2.5 / 1

26.19 (#129 OF 130)

8/30/19 RICE ROAD TEAMS are 4-3 SU & 5-1 ATS in L7 games of RIC-ARM series9/7/19 at Michigan9/14/19 at Tx-San Antonio9/21/19 MORGAN ST10/5/19 TULANE HOME TEAMS are 10-7 SU & 10-6 ATS in ARM-TUL series since 199610/12/19 at W Kentucky10/19/19 at Georgia St10/26/19 SAN JOSE ST11/2/19 at Air Force UNDER the total is 5-0 in L5 games of ARM-AF series11/9/19 MASSACHUSETTS11/16/19 VMI11/30/19 at Hawaii HOME TEAMS are 3-0 SU & ATS in L3 games of ARM-HAW series12/14/19 vs. Navy UNDER the total is 13-0 in NAV-ARM series since 2006

8/31/18 at Duke 14-34 L 13.5 L 46.5 O9/8/18 LIBERTY 38-14 W -8 W 58 U9/15/18 HAWAII 28-21 W -6.5 W 62 U9/22/18 at Oklahoma 21-28 L 28.5 W 60 U9/29/18 at Buffalo 42-13 W 7 W 54.5 O10/13/18 vs. San Jose St 52-3 W -17.5 W 50.5 O10/20/18 MIAMI OHIO 31-30 W -6.5 L 47 O10/27/18 at E Michigan 37-22 W -1.5 W 48 O11/3/18 AIR FORCE 17-14 W -4.5 L 41.5 U11/10/18 LAFAYETTE 31-13 W -46 L 53.5 U11/17/18 COLGATE 28-14 W -9 W 37 O12/8/18 vs. Navy 17-10 W -7.5 L 38.5 U12/22/18 vs. Houston 70-14 W -6.5 W 55.5 O

Senior quarterback Kelvin Hopkins is not much of a passing threat, but he runs a potent offense and his experience will give the Black Knights another shot at double-digit wins. Hopkins rushed for 1,017 yards and 17 touchdowns last year, when Army went 11-2 capped by the biggest blowout of the bowl season, a 70-14 victory over Houston. With only four starters returning on defense, the Knights might not be as successful in close games, and they thrived in those situations last season by going 4-1 in games decided by seven points or fewer. Army topped Air Force and Navy in narrow wins, but a 28-21 overtime loss as a 30-point underdog at Oklahoma was most impressive. Jeff Monken, entering his sixth year as coach, has completely turned around a program that went 2-10 in 2015. The key to

this win total is a 13-game schedule that includes a late trip to Hawaii. Only three opponents had a winning record last year. Aside from a September trip to Michigan, there is no other game Army almost certainly figures to lose. If Hopkins stays healthy, look for 10 or more wins for the Knights. The Over price (-150) is reasonable.

OVER 9.5WESTGATE



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ARMYBLACK KNIGHTS

Points Per Game 33.4 26Yards Per Point 12 14Plays Per Game 72.4 63Time of Possession 38:50 13rd Down Conv. % 53.8% 1Total Yards Per Game 401 62Yards Per Play 5.5 66Rush Attempts Per Game 64.3 1Rush Yards Per Game 317.3 1Yards Per Rush Attempt 4.9 30Pass Attempts Per Game 7.8 130Completion % 52.3% 115Passing Yards Per Game 83.7 127Yards Per Pass Attempt 10.7 3Turnovers 0.5 2



2018 46 16.8 -0.15 -4.3 3 32.9 5.51 12.22 8 16 5.66 18.012017 42 13.5 0.53 -0.9 9 32.3 6.43 12.85 7 18.8 5.9 18.512016 35 8.5 0.71 5.2 6-QB 29.9 5.8 13.38 9 21.4 5.09 13.892015 25 -5.5 -0.47 16.8 5-QB 23.6 5.63 14.34 5 29.2 6.1 13.07

• ARMY is 8-2 ATS (L10G) at HOME - [vs OPP] After a blowout SU win of 20 points or more

• ARMY is 1-8 ATS (L9G) on ROAD - Before playing NAVY

• ARMY is 10-0 UNDER (L10G) - [vs OPP] Head coach - NIUMATALOLO





SCHEDULE STRENGTH

2019 SCHEDULE




NOTRE DAMEFIGHTING IRISHLocation: Notre Dame, IN Stadium: Notre Dame Stadium Head Coach: Brian Kelly - 10th season2018 Record: 12-1Returning Starters: 13 - Offense: 7 QB - Defense: 6Offensive Coordinator: Chip LongDefensive Coordinator: Clark Lea

60.5

3.5 / 0

43.88 (#48 OF 130)

9/2/19 at Louisville9/14/19 NEW MEXICO9/21/19 at Georgia9/28/19 VIRGINIA10/5/19 BOWLING GREEN10/12/19 USC HOME TEAMS are 5-2 SU & 7-0 ATS in L7 games of USC-ND series10/26/19 at Michigan HOME TEAMS are 6-0 SU & ATS in L6 games of ND-MIC series11/2/19 VIRGINIA TECH11/9/19 at Duke11/16/19 NAVY ROAD TEAMS are 2-12 SU but 12-2 ATS in ND-NAV series since 199311/23/19 BOSTON COLLEGE UNDERDOGS are 5-15 SU but 14-6 ATS in BC-ND series since 199311/30/19 at Stanford UNDERDOGS are 4-16 SU but 13-7 ATS in ND-STA series since 1999

9/1/18 MICHIGAN 24-17 W 3 W 48.5 U9/8/18 BALL ST 24-16 W -34 L 59.5 U9/15/18 VANDERBILT 22-17 W -13.5 L 53 U9/22/18 at Wake Forest 56-27 W -6 W 59.5 O9/29/18 STANFORD 38-17 W -4.5 W 54.5 O10/6/18 at Virginia Tech 45-23 W -6.5 W 53.5 O10/13/18 PITTSBURGH 19-14 W -21 L 55.5 U10/27/18 vs. Navy 44-22 W -22.5 L 57 O11/3/18 at Northwestern 31-21 W -10 T 49.5 O11/10/18 FLORIDA ST 42-13 W -17 W 51.5 O11/17/18 vs. Syracuse 36-3 W -10 W 64.5 U11/24/18 at USC 24-17 W -14 L 55 U12/29/18 vs. Clemson 3-30 L 10.5 L 58 U

Brian Kelly has had only one bad season in the past four — and it was really bad with a 4-8 finish in 2016 — and this another Fighting Irish team capable of winning 10 games. Kelly is stringing together outstanding recruiting classes and he’s a sharp game-planner. For evidence, look at how he took apart Michigan and owned Jim Harbaugh in the first half of last year’s opener. With junior quarterback Ian Book returning along with four starters on the line, Kelly will field another strong offense. The defense returns six starters after allowing an impressive 18.2 points per game. But the talent is not the same as last year’s 12-1 team. This roster is not on the level with Alabama, Clemson and other elite teams. Notre Dame will lose two road games (Georgia, Michigan) and the Nov. 30 date at Stanford is not going

to be easy. The Irish open as 20-point favorites at Louisville and will be favored in all seven home games. The schedule is soft enough for Kelly to navigate the way to 9-3, with the best-case scenario being 10-2. This is most likely a nine-win team (Under 9½ is -145 at Circa) so forget a playoff repeat.

UNDER 9.5CIRCA




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NOTRE DAMEFIGHTING IRISH

Points Per Game 31.4 33Yards Per Point 14 54Plays Per Game 75.1 38Time of Possession 29:04 833rd Down Conv. % 43.0% 31Total Yards Per Game 440.4 28Yards Per Play 5.9 39Rush Attempts Per Game 41.1 31Rush Yards Per Game 182.9 48Yards Per Rush Attempt 4.5 52Pass Attempts Per Game 32.2 62Completion % 64.1% 26Passing Yards Per Game 257.5 36Yards Per Pass Attempt 8 29Turnovers 1.3 42



2018 62.5 33 3.34 -19.1 6-QB 42 7.27 12.77 9-DC 9 3.93 32.132017 59.5 33.6 3.78 -17.8 8-QB, OC 45.8 7.98 12.33 7-DC 12.2 4.2 25.112016 48.5 19.1 2.39 -10.2 4 39.5 7.1 12.38 4 20.4 4.71 16.172015 58 29.5 3.65 -17 7-QB 44.3 8.44 12.64 10 14.7 4.79 21.29

• NOTRE DAME is 18-2 ATS (L20G) on ROAD - In October

• NOTRE DAME is 10-24 ATS (S2000) at HOME - In November

• NOTRE DAME is 13-2 UNDER (L15G) - Before playing NAVY





SCHEDULE STRENGTH

2019 SCHEDULE




BYUCOUGARSLocation: Provo, UT Stadium: LaVell Edwards Stadium Head Coach: Kalani Sitake - 4th season2018 Record: 7-6Returning Starters: 17 - Offense: 9 QB - Defense: 8Offensive Coordinator: Jeff GrimesDefensive Coordinator: Ilaisa Tuiaki

46.5

3 / 0.25

41.52 (#62 OF 130)

8/29/19 UTAH ROAD TEAMS are 2-3 SU but 5-0 ATS in L5 games of BYU-UTA series9/7/19 at Tennessee9/14/19 USC9/21/19 WASHINGTON HOME TEAMS are 5-1 SU & 5-0 ATS in L6 games of BYU-WAS series9/28/19 at Toledo10/12/19 at South Florida10/19/19 BOISE ST ROAD TEAMS are 1-3 SU but 4-0 ATS in L4 games of BSU-BYU series11/2/19 at Utah St UNDERDOGS are 5-6 SU but 9-2 ATS in UTS-BYU series since 200811/9/19 LIBERTY11/16/19 IDAHO ST11/23/19 at Massachusetts ROAD TEAMS are 3-0 SU & ATS in L3 games of MAS-BYU series11/30/19 at San Diego St BYU is 13-2 SU & 11-4 ATS vs. SAN DIEGO ST since 1995

9/1/18 at Arizona 28-23 W 10.5 W 58.5 U9/8/18 CALIFORNIA 18-21 L -2 L 47.5 U9/15/18 at Wisconsin 24-21 W 23.5 W 52.5 U9/22/18 MCNEESE ST 30-3 W -22.5 W 41.5 U9/29/18 at Washington 7-35 L 18.5 L 47.5 U10/5/18 UTAH ST 20-45 L -1 L 55 O10/13/18 HAWAII 49-23 W -10.5 W 57 O10/27/18 N ILLINOIS 6-7 L -7 L 44.5 U11/3/18 at Boise St 16-21 L 12 W 52.5 U11/10/18 at Massachusetts 35-16 W -13.5 W 56.5 U11/17/18 NEW MEXICO ST 45-10 W -26 W 60.5 U11/24/18 at Utah 27-35 L 10.5 W 45 O12/21/18 vs. W Michigan 49-18 W -10 W 52 O

Cougars coach Kalani Sitake has one of the nation’s most experienced teams with 17 returning starters, and he will need those veterans to be resilient in September. BYU’s opening four games — Utah, at Tennessee, USC, Washington — will make for a ridiculously tough stretch. Sophomore quarterback Zach Wilson, who figures to win the starting job, has several talented receivers and a strong line in front of him, so expect an improvement on BYU’s 27.2 points per game. The defense appears to have few weaknesses. The Cougars wrap September with a trip to Toledo, followed by a game at South Florida and Boise State in Provo. While there is a lot to like about this team, the schedule is as distasteful as a plate of broccoli and Limburger cheese. The only three soft spots are against Liberty,

Idaho State and Massachusetts. The Cougars will need to pull off a couple off upsets to reach eight wins. While that’s possible, it’s tough to bet on it with an unproven coach. A 1-3 or 0-4 start could lead to a tailspin and a late scramble for bowl eligibility. This forecast calls for 6-6 with seven wins at best.

UNDER 7WESTGATE




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BYUCOUGARS

Points Per Game 27 74Yards Per Point 13.8 49Plays Per Game 67.7 102Time of Possession 30:15 533rd Down Conv. % 36.2% 91Total Yards Per Game 371.5 90Yards Per Play 5.5 70Rush Attempts Per Game 36.5 88Rush Yards Per Game 152.9 82Yards Per Rush Attempt 4.2 75Pass Attempts Per Game 28.8 90Completion % 63.8% 28Passing Yards Per Game 218.6 73Yards Per Pass Attempt 7.6 48Turnovers 1.3 47



2018 46.5 14.9 1.53 -3.9 7-QB, OC 31.1 5.88 12.68 7 16.2 4.36 18.232017 32.5 1.1 0.69 7.4 6 20.5 5.62 17.34 6 19.4 4.93 17.692016 Yes 50.5 21.6 0.92 -10.1 7- OC 35.5 6 12.77 8-DC 13.9 5.08 23.812015 50 20.9 2.01 -6.3 8 39.6 6.67 11.74 5 18.7 4.66 17.79

• BYU is 7-0 ATS (L7G) on ROAD - as Non-ranked team

• BYU is 0-6-1 ATS (L7G) - VS SEC

• BYU is 14-1 UNDER (L15G) - First game of the season





SCHEDULE STRENGTH

2019 SCHEDULE




LIBERTYFLAMESLocation: Lynchburg, VA Stadium: Arthur L. Williams Stadium Head Coach: Hugh Freeze - 1st season2018 Record: 6-6Returning Starters: 15 - Offense: 8 QB - Defense: 7Offensive Coordinator: Kent Austin / Maurice Harris *Defensive Coordinator: Scott Symons *

28

3 / 0.5

29.94 (#126 OF 130)

8/31/19 SYRACUSE9/7/19 at LA Lafayette9/14/19 BUFFALO9/21/19 HAMPTON9/28/19 NEW MEXICO10/5/19 at New Mexico St10/19/19 MAINE10/26/19 at Rutgers11/2/19 at Massachusetts11/9/19 at BYU11/23/19 at Virginia11/30/19 NEW MEXICO ST

9/1/18 OLD DOMINION 52-10 W 5 W 58.5 O9/8/18 at Army 14-38 L 8 L 58 U9/22/18 NORTH TEXAS 7-47 L 11.5 L 66.5 U9/29/18 at New Mexico 52-43 W 7 W 65 O10/6/18 at New Mexico St 41-49 L -3 L 65 O10/13/18 TROY 22-16 W 10.5 W 62 U10/20/18 IDAHO ST 48-41 W -6.5 W 78 O11/3/18 at Massachusetts 59-62 L 1.5 L 67 O11/10/18 at Virginia 24-45 L 25 W 57.5 O11/17/18 at Auburn 0-53 L 30.5 L 65.5 U11/24/18 NEW MEXICO ST 28-21 W -7.5 L 72 U12/1/18 NORFOLK ST 52-17 W -30.5 W 59 O

Hugh Freeze, a disgraced former Mississippi coach, gets his second chance in Lynchburg, Virginia, and he’s actually taking over a program that’s not in a deep freeze. The Flames, 12-11 the past two years, return 16 starters. The headliner is senior quarterback Stephen Calvert, who passed for 3,068 yards and 21 touchdowns last year. He also tossed 18 interceptions. Expect his numbers to improve under Freeze, who coaches an up-tempo offense and has several talented runners and receivers to work with right away. Liberty upset Baylor as a 30-point ‘dog in 2017. This program was left in good shape, but the main problem is a schedule that opens with Syracuse and includes Buffalo, New Mexico, Rutgers, BYU and Virginia. Freeze is full of surprises — who knew his cell phone once had escort services on speed

dial? — and he’s a good coach despite his embarrassing demise at Ole Miss. It’s not difficult to find five wins on the Flames’ schedule, so let’s give Freeze the benefit of the doubt and predict he wins six. There is enough talent at Liberty for Freeze to start a minor career revival.

OVER 5.5POINTSBET




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LIBERTYFLAMES




2018 24 -3.6 -0.91 16.7 9-QB 31.7 5.42 13.35 7 35.3 6.33 13.752017 20.5 -11 -2.19 30 N/A 28.3 5.24 14.07 N/A 39.3 7.42 13.112016 22 -6.3 -1.62 17 N/A 24.8 4.64 13.13 N/A 31.1 6.26 13.62015 20 -8.9 -1.19 10.5 N/A 24.8 5.09 14.3 N/A 33.6 6.29 12.05

• LIBERTY is 7-0 ATS (L7G) - [vs OPP] More than 13 days rest

• LIBERTY is 3-5 ATS (L8G) - OU line of 60 or more

• LIBERTY is 4-1 UNDER (L2Y) - Underdog of more than 7 points





SCHEDULE STRENGTH

2019 SCHEDULE




MASSACHUSETTSMINUTEMENLocation: Amherst, MA Stadium: Warren McGuirk Alumni Stadium Head Coach: Walt Bell - 1st season2018 Record: 4-8Returning Starters: 8 - Offense: 5 - Defense: 3Offensive Coordinator: Walt Bell *Defensive Coordinator: Aazaar Abdul-Rahim / Tommy Restivo *

21.5

3.5 / -0.5

32.19 (#114 OF 130)

8/30/19 at Rutgers9/7/19 S ILLINOIS9/14/19 at Charlotte9/21/19 COASTAL CAROLINA9/28/19 AKRON UNDER the total is 4-0 in L4 games of AKR-MAS series10/5/19 at FLA International HOME TEAMS are 4-0 SU & ATS in L4 games of MAS-FIU series10/12/19 at Louisiana Tech10/26/19 CONNECTICUT11/2/19 LIBERTY11/9/19 at Army11/16/19 at Northwestern11/23/19 BYU ROAD TEAMS are 3-0 SU & ATS in L3 games of MAS-BYU series

8/25/18 DUQUESNE 63-15 W -21.5 W 70 O9/1/18 at Boston College 21-55 L 20.5 L 62 O9/8/18 at Ga Southern 13-34 L 1.5 L 60.5 U9/15/18 at Fla International 24-63 L 3.5 L 66 O9/22/18 CHARLOTTE 49-31 W -6 W 56 O9/29/18 at Ohio U 42-58 L 11.5 L 70.5 O10/6/18 SOUTH FLORIDA 42-58 L 15.5 L 72.5 O10/20/18 COASTAL CAROLINA 13-24 L -2.5 L 75.5 U10/27/18 at Connecticut 22-17 W -3.5 W 64.5 U11/3/18 LIBERTY 62-59 W -1.5 W 67 O11/10/18 BYU 16-35 L 13.5 L 56.5 U11/17/18 at Georgia 27-66 L 41.5 W 67.5 O

The Minutemen return only 10 starters from a 4-8 season that spelled the end for former coach Mark Whipple. The rebuilding job goes to Walt Bell, a younger coach with the energy for the task. He does not have the personnel to win, though. UMass lost its top two quarterbacks, top three rushers and star receiver Andy Isabella, a second-round pick by the Arizona Cardinals. Isabella graduated to the NFL after making 102 receptions for 1,698 yards and 13 touchdowns as a senior. The UMass defense allowed an astounding 42.9 points and 485 yards per game and might be worse. In Phil Steele’s preseason guide, the Minuteman are ranked No. 130 of 130 teams. UMass hosts No. 129 Connecticut in October. The good news is the winnable games are in the front half of the schedule. The certain losses to

Army, Northwestern and BYU will come in November. A large numbers of losses are certain. There’s just no way to be hopeful about a miserable team that’s starting over, so expect 2-10 or worse. Three wins would be a huge victory for Bell in his debut.

UNDER 2.5POINTSBET




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MASSACHUSETTSMINUTEMEN




2018 29.5 -5.1 0.11 13.2 9-QB 33.7 6.71 13.63 6 38.7 6.6 12.012017 33.5 2.2 0.65 6.9 6 32.5 6.21 13.79 9-DC 30.3 5.56 12.92016 22.5 -3.2 0.1 15.7 5-QB 28.5 5.78 13.54 5 31.8 5.68 13.222015 26 -3.5 0.31 14.6 10 25.3 5.71 16.64 9 28.8 5.4 14.81

• MASSACHUSETTS is 8-2 ATS (L10G) on ROAD - On grass field

• MASSACHUSETTS is 0-7 ATS (L7G) at HOME - Revenging a loss

• MASSACHUSETTS is 12-3 OVER (L5Y) - [vs OPP] More than 6 days rest





SCHEDULE STRENGTH

2019 SCHEDULE




NEW MEXICO STAGGIESLocation: Las Cruces, NM Stadium: Aggie Memorial Stadium Head Coach: Doug Martin - 7th season2018 Record: 3-9Returning Starters: 14 - Offense: 8 QB - Defense: 6Offensive Coordinator: Doug Martin *Defensive Coordinator: Frank Spaziani

23

2.75 / -0.5

37.17 (#78 OF 130)

8/31/19 at Washington St9/7/19 at Alabama9/14/19 SAN DIEGO ST9/21/19 at New Mexico ROAD TEAMS are 12-9 SU & 15-6 ATS in NM-NMS series since 19989/28/19 FRESNO ST UNDER the total is 6-1 in L7 games of NMS-FRS series10/5/19 LIBERTY10/12/19 at C Michigan10/26/19 at Ga Southern ROAD TEAMS are 4-1 SU & ATS in L5 games of GSU-NMS series11/9/19 at Ole Miss11/16/19 INCARNATE WORD11/23/19 UTEP FAVORITES are 6-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in L6 games of UTEP-NMS series11/30/19 at Liberty

8/25/18 WYOMING 7-29 L 5.5 L 46.5 U8/30/18 at Minnesota 10-48 L 21.5 L 49 O9/8/18 at Utah St 13-60 L 22 L 63 O9/15/18 NEW MEXICO 25-42 L 3 L 60.5 O9/22/18 at UTEP 27-20 W -5.5 W 51.5 U10/6/18 LIBERTY 49-41 W 3 W 65 O10/13/18 at La Lafayette 38-66 L 7.5 L 66.5 O10/20/18 GA SOUTHERN 31-48 L 10 L 52.5 O10/27/18 at Texas St Univ 20-27 L 1.5 L 57 U11/3/18 ALCORN ST 52-42 W -12.5 L 63.5 O11/17/18 at BYU 10-45 L 26 L 60.5 U11/24/18 at Liberty 21-28 L 7.5 W 72 U

Two weeks into the season, after trips to Washington State and Alabama, the Aggies could be demoralized. On the optimistic side, their schedule only gets easier from there. It’s not necessarily easy, however, with Mountain West opponents San Diego State, New Mexico and Fresno State next in line. After an historic bowl win in 2017, New Mexico State slipped from 7-6 back to reality and 3-9 last year. In Doug Martin’s seventh year as coach — the truth is few coaches survive so long in “Loss” Cruces, a hopeless place — he can look forward to 14 starters coming back. That group includes sophomore quarterback Josh Adkins and leading rushers Christian Gibson and Jason Huntley. The Aggies allowed 41.3 points per game last year and might be just as weak defensively. New Mexico State has another home-

and-home series with independent Liberty — the teams split close games last season — and should beat Incarnate Word and Texas-El Paso, though there are no guaranteed wins for one of the worst programs in college football history. The schedule is tough, and the Aggies finished 3-9 in three of the past four years.

UNDER 3.5WESTGATE




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NEW MEXICO STAGGIES




2018 20 -13.8 -0.73 19.9 6 26.4 5.11 14.39 9 40.1 5.84 11.642017 32 0.3 0.7 9.6 7 29.4 6.02 15.61 9 29.1 5.33 13.482016 21 -6.9 -0.41 19.5 6-QB 28.6 5.81 15.5 6-DC 35.5 6.22 13.282015 18.5 -12.4 -0.49 25.2 8- OC 28.1 6.05 16.07 10-DC 40.5 6.54 12.42

• NEW MEXICO ST is 5-2 ATS (L7G) - VS FRESNO ST

• NEW MEXICO ST is 0-6-1 ATS (L7G) - Before playing FRESNO ST

• NEW MEXICO ST is 21-9 OVER (S2000) on ROAD - VS SUNBELT



MID-AMERICANCONFERENCE PREVIEW


EAST DIVISIONOHIO U 38 3.5 0.5 31.58 117 7.9 4.1 5.7 2.3BUFFALO 33 3.25 -0.25 29.83 127 6.5 5.5 4.6 3.4MIAMI OHIO 34 2.75 0 34.65 95 5.7 6.3 4.5 3.5KENT ST 27.5 2.25 -0.75 38.38 71 3.5 8.5 3.1 4.9BOWLING GREEN 23.5 2.5 0 33.81 103 3.4 8.6 2.2 5.8AKRON 22.5 2.75 0 32.13 115 3.1 8.9 2.2 5.8

WEST DIVISIONW MICHIGAN 40 3.75 0.75 32.65 111 7.8 4.2 5.6 2.4TOLEDO 37 3.25 0.5 31.44 119 7.5 4.5 5.4 2.6N ILLINOIS 38 3.25 0 37.23 77 6.3 5.7 5.2 2.8E MICHIGAN 32.5 2.5 0.75 31.38 120 6.3 5.7 4.3 3.7BALL ST 29 2 -0.5 34.27 99 4.2 7.8 2.8 5.2C MICHIGAN 24.5 2.25 0.5 33.54 106 3.9 8.1 2.4 5.6



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GAMEEAST DIVISION CHAMPION OHIO OHIO OHIO OHIO OHIO OHIO OHIO OHIO


WMICHIGAN TOLEDO W

MICHIGAN TOLEDO WMICHIGAN TOLEDO W

MICHIGANW

MICHIGAN

MAC CHAMPIONSHIP OHIO TOLEDO OHIO OHIO W

MICHIGAN OHIO WMICHIGAN OHIO

WRITTEN BY DAVE TULEY - @VIEWFROMVEGAS


Ohio and ToledoOhio and Toledo are +225 co-favorites at the Westgate SuperBook to win the MAC Championship Game on Dec. 7 at Ford Field in Detroit. Ohio is clearly the class of the East Division, but Toledo has a much tougher road to the expected title clash as the next three contenders in the MAC futures (Western Michigan +450, Northern Illinois +600 and upstart Eastern Michigan +800) are with Toledo in the West Division. Toledo has the good fortune of facing all three at home this season.

Eastern Michigan, Western Michigan and Central MichiganIf looking for live MACtion dogs, think “directional Michigan schools” as all three have quarterbacks that should be capable of a pulling off some upsets this season: Eastern Michigan (Mike Glass), Western Michigan (Jon Wassink) and Central Michigan (Quinten Dornady). EMU might contend for the division title, but the long losing reputation of the program should still have it as an underdog in most games. WMU is also a contender but will likely also be underdogs to the other contenders. Central Michigan is coming off an 1-11 season, but brings in coach Jim McElwain (formerly at Colorado State and Florida) in hopes of getting back to bowl eligibility.

Kent, Akron, Bowling Green and Ball StateA lot of people see the MAC as a wide-open league, but there’s a separation between the haves and the have nots. Kent, Akron, Bowling Green and Ball State are pretty much dead money (except when facing each other) and I’d need a lot of points before backing them against any of the upper tier teams.

2019 MID-AMERICAN CONFERENCE PREVIEW

THE FAVORITES

LIVE DOGS

DEAD MONEY

BIG GAMES ON THE BOARDOhio at Buffalo, Oct. 5Buffalo only returns seven starters from last year’s 10-win team. This game will probably show if Buffalo is going to contend again or if Ohio is likely to run away with the East Division.

Western Michigan at Toledo, Oct. 5On the same day, this matchup should decide supremacy in the West Division.

Northern Illinois at Toledo, Nov. 13If NIU is able to stay a contender with new coach Thomas Hammock replacing Rod Carey, then this should be a critical game in the West Division race. The lights will be bright as it’s a MACtion Wednesday night special on ESPN.




SCHEDULE STRENGTH

2019 SCHEDULE




2019 MID-AMERICAN EAST DIVISION

OHIO UBOBCATSLocation: Athens, OH Stadium: Peden Stadium Head Coach: Frank Solich - 15th season2018 Record: 9-4Returning Starters: 10 - Offense: 4 QB - Defense: 6Offensive Coordinator: Tim Albin / Scott IsphordingDefensive Coordinator: Ron Collins / Pete Germano *

38

3.5 / 0.5

31.58 (#117 OF 130)

8/31/19 RHODE ISLAND9/7/19 at Pittsburgh HOME TEAMS are 3-0 SU & ATS in L3 games of PIT-OHU series9/14/19 at Marshall HOME TEAMS are 5-1 SU & 6-0 ATS in L6 games of MAR-OHU series9/21/19 LA LAFAYETTE10/5/19 at Buffalo HOME TEAMS are 7-0 SU & ATS in L7 games of OHU-BUF series10/12/19 N ILLINOIS UNDERDOGS are 3-5 SU but 7-1 ATS in L8 games of NIL-OHU series10/19/19 KENT ST UNDER the total is 9-2 in KS-OHU series since 200810/26/19 at Ball St HOME TEAMS are 5-2 SU & 6-1 ATS in L7 games of BLS-OHU series11/6/19 MIAMI OHIO UNDER the total is 8-2 in OHU-MOH series since 200911/12/19 W MICHIGAN OVER the total is 5-1 in L6 games of WMU-OHU series11/19/19 at Bowling Green BOWLING GREEN is 11-9 SU & 15-5 ATS vs. OHIO U since 199811/26/19 at Akron UNDERDOGS are 2-3 SU but 5-0 ATS in L5 games of OHU-AKR series

9/1/18 HOWARD 38-32 W -30.5 L 62 O9/15/18 vs. Virginia 31-45 L 4 L 55.5 O9/22/18 at Cincinnati 30-34 L 7 W 56 O9/29/18 MASSACHUSETTS 58-42 W -11.5 W 70.5 O10/6/18 at Kent St 27-26 W -11.5 L 70 U10/13/18 at N Illinois 21-24 L 5.5 W 52 U10/20/18 BOWLING GREEN 49-14 W -16 W 66.5 U10/25/18 BALL ST 52-14 W -10.5 W 65.5 O11/1/18 at W Michigan 59-14 W -3.5 W 64.5 O11/7/18 at Miami Ohio 28-30 L -4.5 L 59 U11/14/18 BUFFALO 52-17 W -2.5 W 67 O11/23/18 AKRON 49-28 W -24 L 57 O12/19/18 vs. San Diego St 27-0 W -2 W 47.5 U

The Bobcats only return four starters on offense from a team that averaged 467 yards and 40 points per game last season, but the key component is QB Nathan Rourke, who passed for 2,400 yards and rushed for more than 1,000 yards, so the offense is in good hands (and feet). In a conference with a lot of coaching changes, Ohio also has the most stability with Frank Solich, who had led the Bobcats to four straight seasons with 8 or more wins. But even if you find this Over/Under at 8, I’d still go Over as they should go at least 2-2 on the nonconference portion of their schedule with wins over Rhode Island and Louisiana-Lafayette and possibility of a third win vs. Pittsburgh or Marshall. Their only tough MAC East Division game should be at Buffalo on Oct. 5, but they avoid having to play the West’s top team

(Toledo) and get the other top West contenders, Northern Illinois and Western Michigan, at home. Eight wins should be the worst-case scenario on the way to a berth in the MAC title game.

OVER 7.5FANDUEL

DAVE TULEY’S SEASON WIN TOTAL PREDICTION


TOP TRENDS FOR 2019







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OHIO UBOBCATS


Points Per Game 24 40Yards Per Point 15.4 383rd Down Conv. % 41.6% 86Total Yards Per Game 369.9 44Yards Per Play 5.8 83Rush Yards Per Game 135.2 30Yards Per Rush Attempt 4.4 64Completion % 62.1% 87Passing Yards Per Game 234.7 69Yards Per Pass Attempt 7.6 82Sacks 2 72Turnovers 2.3 5


2018 46 16.3 1.01 -4.9 8-QB 41.6 7.13 11.48 4 25.4 6.12 15.52017 42.5 13.1 0.98 -1.2 7 38.9 6.3 11.1 6 25.8 5.32 14.462016 35.5 5.8 0.45 5.5 6-QB 27 5.58 14.76 6 21.2 5.12 16.972015 34 5.2 0.28 11.9 10 29 5.84 14.96 8 23.8 5.56 15.24

• OHIO is 5-0-2 ATS (L7G) - After playing N ILLINOIS

• OHIO is 3-15-1 ATS (L19G) - Before playing BUFFALO

• OHIO is 9-0-1 OVER (L10G) - VS SUNBELT





SCHEDULE STRENGTH

2019 SCHEDULE




BUFFALOBULLSLocation: Amherst, NY Stadium: UB Stadium Head Coach: Lance Leipold - 5th season2018 Record: 10-4Returning Starters: 8 - Offense: 5 - Defense: 3Offensive Coordinator: Andy Kotelnicki / Jim ZebrowskiDefensive Coordinator: Brian Borland

33

3.25 / -0.25

29.83 (#127 OF 130)

8/29/19 ROBERT MORRIS9/7/19 at Penn St9/14/19 at Liberty9/21/19 TEMPLE ROAD TEAMS are 4-3 SU & 5-2 ATS in L7 games of TEM-BUF series9/28/19 at Miami Ohio FAVORITES are 11-0 SU & 9-1 ATS in BUF-MOH series since 200810/5/19 OHIO U HOME TEAMS are 7-0 SU & ATS in L7 games of OHU-BUF series10/19/19 at Akron HOME TEAMS are 8-0 SU & ATS in L8 games of BUF-AKR series10/26/19 C MICHIGAN ROAD TEAMS are 5-2 SU & ATS in L7 games of CMU-BUF series11/2/19 at E Michigan HOME TEAMS are 5-0 SU & ATS in L5 games of BUF-EMU series11/14/19 at Kent St BUFFALO is 6-1 SU & ATS in its L7 games at KENT ST11/20/19 TOLEDO BUFFALO is 2-3 SU but 4-1 ATS in its L5 games vs. TOLEDO11/29/19 BOWLING GREEN BUFFALO is 2-3 SU but 5-0 ATS in its L5 games vs. BOWLING GREEN

9/1/18 DELAWARE ST 48-10 W -44 L 63 U9/8/18 at Temple 36-29 W 4 W 52.5 O9/15/18 E MICHIGAN 35-28 W -3 W 54 O9/22/18 at Rutgers 42-13 W -6 W 53.5 O9/29/18 ARMY 13-42 L -7 L 54.5 O10/6/18 at C Michigan 34-24 W -6.5 W 52 O10/13/18 AKRON 24-6 W -12 W 55 U10/20/18 at Toledo 31-17 W 3 W 63 U10/30/18 MIAMI OHIO 51-42 W -8 W 53 O11/6/18 KENT ST 48-14 W -17 W 47.5 O11/14/18 at Ohio U 17-52 L 2.5 L 67 O11/23/18 at Bowling Green 44-14 W -15 W 63 U11/30/18 vs. N Illinois 29-30 L -3.5 L 51.5 O12/22/18 vs. Troy 32-42 L -2.5 L 52 O

The Bulls won 10 games last season before falling short, 29-28, to Northern Illinois in the MAC Championship Game. The cupboard isn’t completely bare, but Buffalo did lose QB Tyree Jackson and WR Anthony Johnson to the NFL and only return seven starters, so there’s a lot of holes to fill with those two being the biggest. Still, it seems the win total has been under-adjusted a little too low. The Sept. 7 game at Penn State is the only virtual lock in the loss column among the Bulls’ nonconference schedule. They also face Robert Morris, Liberty and Temple and even if they only beat Robert Morris to start 1-3, they should still get to at least .500. The Oct. 5 home game against Ohio is critical for Buffalo to show it is still a contender, but even if they also lose that matchup, there’s enough bottom-feeders in the

MAC to beat up on (Akron, Kent State, Bowling Green that the Bulls should rack up enough wins to go Over. I’m not expecting them to win the East Division again, but a 7-5 record is still more likely than 5-7.

OVER 6FANDUEL




TOP TRENDS FOR 2019







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BUFFALOBULLS

Points Per Game 33.5 25Yards Per Point 12.5 21Plays Per Game 73.2 55Time of Possession 31:41 313rd Down Conv. % 44.3% 24Total Yards Per Game 419.3 42Yards Per Play 5.7 50Rush Attempts Per Game 42 27Rush Yards Per Game 192 43Yards Per Rush Attempt 4.6 48Pass Attempts Per Game 30 79Completion % 54.1% 103Passing Yards Per Game 227.3 68Yards Per Pass Attempt 7.6 52Turnovers 1.5 75



2018 40.5 12.8 0.86 0.5 8-QB 37.7 5.93 11.34 6 24.9 5.08 13.72017 33.5 6.5 1.08 8.8 6 29.5 6.44 15.07 8 23 5.36 16.882016 20 -13.2 -0.5 21.4 3-QB 19.3 5.29 18.8 8 32.5 5.79 13.12015 Yes 26.5 1.2 -0.13 12.7 7- OC 30 5.41 13.22 4-DC 28.7 5.54 14.08

• BUFFALO is 6-0-1 ATS (L7G) on ROAD - VS KENT ST

• BUFFALO is 1-7 ATS (L8G) at HOME - On Friday

• BUFFALO is 13-2 UNDER (L15G) - Underdog of more than 7 points





SCHEDULE STRENGTH

2019 SCHEDULE




MIAMI OHIOREDHAWKSLocation: Oxford, OH Stadium: Fred C. Yager Stadium Head Coach: Chuck Martin - 6th season2018 Record: 6-6Returning Starters: 10 - Offense: 5 - Defense: 5Offensive Coordinator: George Barnett / Eric KoehlerDefensive Coordinator: John Hauser / Spence Nowinsky

34

2.75 / 0

34.65 (#95 OF 130)

8/31/19 at Iowa9/7/19 TENNESSEE TECH9/14/19 at Cincinnati UNDERDOGS are 2-4 SU but 6-0 ATS in L6 games of MOH-CIN series9/21/19 at Ohio St HOME TEAMS are 3-0 SU & ATS in L3 games of OSU-MOH series9/28/19 BUFFALO FAVORITES are 11-0 SU & 9-1 ATS in BUF-MOH series since 200810/12/19 at W Michigan10/19/19 N ILLINOIS MIAMI OHIO is 2-5 SU but 6-1 ATS in its L7 games vs. N ILLINOIS10/26/19 at Kent St UNDER the total is 6-0 in L6 games of KS-MOH series11/6/19 at Ohio U UNDER the total is 8-2 in OHU-MOH series since 200911/13/19 BOWLING GREEN ROAD TEAMS are 5-0 SU & ATS in L5 games of MOH-BGSU series11/20/19 AKRON ROAD TEAMS are 5-3 SU & 7-1 ATS in L8 games of AKR-MOH series11/29/19 at Ball St MIAMI OHIO is 6-4 SU & 7-3 ATS vs. BALL ST since 2001

9/1/18 MARSHALL 28-35 L -1.5 L 51.5 O9/8/18 vs. Cincinnati 0-21 L -1 L 45 U9/15/18 at Minnesota 3-26 L 14 L 47.5 U9/22/18 at Bowling Green 38-23 W -6.5 W 55 O9/29/18 W MICHIGAN 39-40 L 3 W 53 O10/6/18 at Akron 41-17 W 4.5 W 47 O10/13/18 KENT ST 31-6 W -11 W 58.5 U10/20/18 at Army 30-31 L 6.5 W 47 O10/30/18 at Buffalo 42-51 L 8 L 53 O11/7/18 OHIO U 30-28 W 4.5 W 59 U11/14/18 at N Illinois 13-7 W 6.5 W 48 U11/20/18 BALL ST 42-21 W -14.5 W 56 O

Miami-O should be good enough this year to be considered better than the dregs of the MAC, but not good enough to contend for the MAC title. They might be good enough to get to 6 wins and be bowl-eligible, but keep in mind that they did that last year and were just one of four 6-win teams snubbed by the bowls. The RedHawks play Iowa, Tennessee Tech, Cincinnati and Ohio State on their nonconference schedule with the game against Tennessee Tech being the only one where we can reasonably expect a victory. The conference slate doesn’t start much easier with Buffalo, Western Michigan and Northern Illinois. By the time they get to the “easy” part of the schedule (excluding a Nov. 6 date at MAC favorite Ohio), the RedHawks might be too beat up to get back to .500, so while I’d love to get

a price on Miami-Ohio pushing on 6 wins, they’re more likely to end up 5-7 than 7-5.

UNDER 6FANDUEL




TOP TRENDS FOR 2019







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MIAMI OHIOREDHAWKS




2018 40.5 9.3 0.87 4.2 8-QB 31.8 5.81 12.45 8 22.6 4.94 15.392017 33.5 1.5 0.26 5.1 9 24.8 5.62 15.69 8 23.3 5.36 15.622016 33 1.7 0.64 10.3 10 25.4 5.74 14.59 6 23.7 5.09 14.622015 23 -9.4 -0.11 20.8 4-QB 21 5.33 16.94 8 30.4 5.44 12.87

• MIAMI OH is 5-0 ATS (L2Y) - Underdog of 7 or less points

• MIAMI OH is 1-6 ATS (L7G) on ROAD - OU line of 60 or more

• MIAMI OH is 7-0 UNDER (L7G) - Before playing N ILLINOIS





SCHEDULE STRENGTH

2019 SCHEDULE




KENT STGOLDEN FLASHESLocation: Kent, OH Stadium: Dix Stadium Head Coach: Sean Lewis - 2nd season2018 Record: 2-10Returning Starters: 15 - Offense: 9 QB - Defense: 6Offensive Coordinator: Andrew SowderDefensive Coordinator: Tom Kaufman

27.5

2.25 / -0.75

38.38 (#71 OF 130)

8/29/19 at Arizona St9/7/19 KENNESAW ST9/14/19 at Auburn9/21/19 BOWLING GREEN ROAD TEAMS are 7-3 SU & 8-2 ATS in BGSU-KS series since 200910/5/19 at Wisconsin10/12/19 at Akron UNDERDOGS are 6-10 SU but 11-4 ATS in KS-AKR series since 200310/19/19 at Ohio U UNDER the total is 9-2 in KS-OHU series since 200810/26/19 MIAMI OHIO UNDER the total is 6-0 in L6 games of KS-MOH series11/5/19 at Toledo FAVORITES are 6-0 SU & 5-1 ATS in L6 games of TOL-KS series11/14/19 BUFFALO BUFFALO is 6-1 SU & ATS in its L7 games at KENT ST11/23/19 BALL ST HOME TEAMS are 7-0 SU & 5-1 ATS in L7 games of KS-BLS series11/29/19 at E Michigan KENT ST is 3-1 SU & 4-0 ATS in its L4 games vs. E MICHIGAN

9/1/18 at Illinois 24-31 L 18 W 57 U9/8/18 HOWARD 54-14 W -9.5 W 66 O9/15/18 at Penn St 10-63 L 35 L 64.5 O9/22/18 at Ole Miss 17-38 L 28.5 W 76 U9/29/18 at Ball St 24-52 L 7 L 60 O10/6/18 OHIO U 26-27 L 11.5 W 70 U10/13/18 at Miami Ohio 6-31 L 11 L 58.5 U10/20/18 AKRON 23-24 L 4.5 W 49 U10/30/18 at Bowling Green 35-28 W -1 W 67.5 U11/6/18 at Buffalo 14-48 L 17 L 47.5 O11/15/18 TOLEDO 34-56 L 13 L 59.5 O11/23/18 E MICHIGAN 20-28 L 12 W 52.5 U

The Golden Flashes return a lot of starters, but that’s not necessarily a good thing when a team is coming off a 2-10 season (1-7 in the MAC), has an inaccurate quarterback when he actually has time to throw (KSU allowed an NCAA-worst 121 tackles for loss and 43 sacks) and a defense that allowed 467 yards and 37 points per game. Second-year coach Sean Lewis, who was the former offensive coordinator at Syracuse, needs to bring in better players and that will take time. As for this season and the Over/Under of 4 wins, Kent State certainly isn’t getting one against Arizona State, Auburn or Wisconsin (and the one winnable game vs. FCS Kennesaw can’t be considered a gimme). The Golden Flashes might be able to compete with the other bottom-feeders in the MAC, but to go Over 4 wins they’d have to

sweep Bowling Green, Akron, Ball State and somehow pick up 2 more wins (assuming they beat Kennesaw State) on the rest of their MAC schedule and that’s not likely to happen. Three wins (or fewer) looks more like it.

UNDER 4FANDUEL




TOP TRENDS FOR 2019







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KENT STGOLDEN FLASHES

Points Per Game 21.2 109Yards Per Point 17.6 122Plays Per Game 79.4 8Time of Possession 27:41 1093rd Down Conv. % 33.3% 115Total Yards Per Game 372.1 88Yards Per Play 4.7 116Rush Attempts Per Game 40.1 48Rush Yards Per Game 155.1 78Yards Per Rush Attempt 3.9 93Pass Attempts Per Game 35.5 33Completion % 59.9% 56Passing Yards Per Game 217 78Yards Per Pass Attempt 6.1 115Turnovers 1.5 62



2018 Yes 24 -5.4 -0.47 14.9 7-OC 25.6 5.4 16.07 6-DC 30.9 5.87 14.152017 16 -14.8 -1.08 23 7 15.9 4.73 18.66 6 30.8 5.81 12.412016 24 -2 0.19 13.9 9 23.6 5.13 13.87 8 25.6 4.94 14.332015 23 -8.8 -0.4 14.8 8- OC 16.4 4.31 17.33 9 25.2 4.72 13.46

• KENT ST is 6-1 ATS (L7G) - Before playing E MICHIGAN

• KENT ST is 0-6-1 ATS (L7G) at HOME - VS BUFFALO

• KENT ST is 6-1 UNDER (L7G) on ROAD - [vs OPP] After a close SU win of 3 points or less





SCHEDULE STRENGTH

2019 SCHEDULE




BOWLING GREENFALCONSLocation: Bowling Green, OH Stadium: Doyt L. Perry Stadium Head Coach: Scot Loeffler - 1st season2018 Record: 3-9Returning Starters: 12 - Offense: 7 - Defense: 5Offensive Coordinator: Terry Malone *Defensive Coordinator: Brian VanGorder *

23.5

2.5 / 0

33.81 (#103 OF 130)

8/29/19 MORGAN ST9/7/19 at Kansas St9/14/19 LOUISIANA TECH9/21/19 at Kent St ROAD TEAMS are 7-3 SU & 8-2 ATS in BGSU-KS series since 200910/5/19 at Notre Dame10/12/19 TOLEDO ROAD TEAMS are 3-4 SU but 6-0 ATS in L7 games of BGSU-TOL series10/19/19 C MICHIGAN ROAD TEAMS are 5-2 SU & 6-1 ATS in L7 games of BGSU-CMU series10/26/19 at W Michigan W MICHIGAN is 7-4 SU & ATS vs. BOWLING GREEN since 199811/2/19 AKRON BOWLING GREEN is 9-2 SU & 10-1 ATS vs. AKRON since 200611/13/19 at Miami Ohio ROAD TEAMS are 5-0 SU & ATS in L5 games of MOH-BGSU series11/19/19 OHIO U BOWLING GREEN is 11-9 SU & 15-5 ATS vs. OHIO U since 199811/29/19 at Buffalo BUFFALO is 2-3 SU but 5-0 ATS in its L5 games vs. BOWLING GREEN

9/1/18 at Oregon 24-58 L 33.5 L 69.5 O9/8/18 MARYLAND 14-45 L 13 L 65.5 U9/15/18 E KENTUCKY 42-35 W -13.5 L 65 O9/22/18 MIAMI OHIO 23-38 L 6.5 L 55 O9/29/18 at Georgia Tech 17-63 L 28 L 65 O10/6/18 at Toledo 36-52 L 22.5 W 71 O10/13/18 W MICHIGAN 35-42 L 14.5 W 68.5 O10/20/18 at Ohio U 14-49 L 16 L 66.5 U10/30/18 KENT ST 28-35 L 1 L 67.5 U11/10/18 at C Michigan 24-13 W 7.5 W 50 U11/17/18 at Akron 21-6 W 6 W 48 U11/23/18 BUFFALO 14-44 L 15 L 63 U

Bowling Green is coming off a 2-10 season and there was hope of the offense improving this fall – but then starting QB Jarret Deoge (2,660 yards passing last year, 27 TDs, 12 INTs) transferred to West Virginia. Of course, even with Deoge the wins would have been hard to find as there’s still plenty of holes on offense and a defense that was even worse. How bad was it? So bad that it ranked No. 6 in the nation in passing yards allowed per game. You might think that’s a good thing, but not when teams run over your defense at the rate of 281 rushing yards per game with a whopping 5.9 yards per carry. Teams didn’t need to pass, and then ran out the clock coasting to easy victories. Even if BGSU opens with a win over FCS Morgan State, it’s hard to find another win (especially in the other nonconference

games against Kansas State, Louisiana Tech and Notre Dame) as every team is looking at the Falcons as one of their easy wins. That includes other MAC bottom-feeders like Kent State and Akron, and if you’ve read those previews you know I see both those teams with better upside.

UNDER 3FANDUEL




TOP TRENDS FOR 2019







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BOWLING GREENFALCONS


Points Per Game 40.5 123Yards Per Point 11 1283rd Down Conv. % 44.0% 104Total Yards Per Game 444.5 95Yards Per Play 6.4 117Rush Yards Per Game 271.5 126Yards Per Rush Attempt 5.8 123Completion % 53.9% 15Passing Yards Per Game 172.9 7Yards Per Pass Attempt 7.8 90Sacks 1 125Turnovers 1 116


2018 21.5 -9 -0.58 20.8 6-QB 26.5 5.53 14.29 7-DC 35.5 6.1 11.962017 25 -4 -0.09 15.3 6 30.1 6 14.06 6 34.1 6.09 13.672016 Yes 27 -5.9 -0.36 19.8 5-QB, OC 28.3 5.52 15.49 6-DC 34.1 5.89 12.712015 49 23.6 2.27 -8.4 10- OC 46.2 7.24 12.93 5-DC 22.7 4.97 17.01

• BOWLING GREEN is 9-1 ATS (L10G) - VS AKRON

• BOWLING GREEN is 0-10 ATS (L10G) - Nonconference games

• BOWLING GREEN is 7-0 OVER (L7G) - [vs OPP] AP top 25





SCHEDULE STRENGTH

2019 SCHEDULE




AKRONZIPSLocation: Akron, OH Stadium: InfoCision Stadium–Summa Field Head Coach: Tom Arth - 1st season2018 Record: 4-8Returning Starters: 10 - Offense: 7 QB - Defense: 3Offensive Coordinator: Tommy Zagorski *Defensive Coordinator: Matt Feeney

22.5

2.75 / 0

32.13 (#115 OF 130)

8/31/19 at Illinois9/7/19 UAB9/14/19 at C Michigan HOME TEAMS are 5-3 SU & 7-1 ATS in L8 games of AKR-CMU series9/21/19 TROY9/28/19 at Massachusetts UNDER the total is 4-0 in L4 games of AKR-MAS series10/12/19 KENT ST UNDERDOGS are 6-10 SU but 11-4 ATS in KS-AKR series since 200310/19/19 BUFFALO HOME TEAMS are 8-0 SU & ATS in L8 games of BUF-AKR series10/26/19 at N Illinois ROAD TEAMS are 4-1 SU & 5-0 ATS in L5 games of AKR-NIL series11/2/19 at Bowling Green BOWLING GREEN is 9-2 SU & 10-1 ATS vs. AKRON since 200611/12/19 E MICHIGAN E MICHIGAN is 0-5 SU but 5-0 ATS in its L5 games at AKRON11/20/19 at Miami Ohio ROAD TEAMS are 5-3 SU & 7-1 ATS in L8 games of AKR-MOH series11/26/19 OHIO U UNDERDOGS are 2-3 SU but 5-0 ATS in L5 games of OHU-AKR series

9/8/18 MORGAN ST 41-7 W -42.5 L 57.5 U9/15/18 at Northwestern 39-34 W 21 W 47.5 O9/22/18 at Iowa St 13-26 L 18.5 W 47.5 U10/6/18 MIAMI OHIO 17-41 L -4.5 L 47 O10/13/18 at Buffalo 6-24 L 12 L 55 U10/20/18 at Kent St 24-23 W -4.5 L 49 U10/27/18 C MICHIGAN 17-10 W -4 W 43.5 U11/1/18 N ILLINOIS 26-36 L 5.5 L 37.5 O11/10/18 at E Michigan 7-27 L 11 L 41.5 U11/17/18 BOWLING GREEN 6-21 L -6 L 48 U11/23/18 at Ohio U 28-49 L 24 W 57 O12/1/18 at South Carolina 3-28 L 28 W 56.5 U

It’s hard to believe that this program was in the MAC Championship Game in 2017 as the Zips went 4-8 last season and Terry Bowden was fired. New coach Tom Arth has a huge rebuilding job on his hands, but there is still a core of decent players to build around, including QB Kato Nelson and four of his five top receivers from a year ago. With the Over/Under set at 3.5, the Zips should be able to match last year’s win total and go Over. The nonconference schedule of Illinois, UAB, Troy and UMass isn’t exactly a murderer’s row, and if Arth can mold him team in time for the start of the season, the Zips should be able to get at least one (mostly likely vs. UMass) and maybe two wins before the MAC season kicks off. While I still consider Akron among the dregs of the league, someone has to win the games when

they play each other and the Zips appear to have more upside compared to Kent State, Bowling Green and maybe even Miami-Ohio.

OVER 3.5FANDUEL




TOP TRENDS FOR 2019







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AKRONZIPS




2018 26.5 -2.3 -0.07 14.4 5 23.3 4.89 13.35 9 25.6 4.96 14.472017 28 2 -0.4 14.2 8 24.6 5.3 14.08 7 22.6 5.7 18.322016 25 -1.2 0.5 6.2 3 31.7 6.29 12.83 4 32.9 5.79 13.522015 32.5 4.1 0.57 11.5 6 24.4 5.34 15.21 6 20.3 4.77 15.94

• AKRON is 8-2 ATS (L10G) - Before playing MIAMI OH

• AKRON is 1-9 ATS (L10G) at HOME - OU line of 60 or more

• AKRON is 10-0 UNDER (L10G) at HOME - Favorite of 10 or more points





SCHEDULE STRENGTH

2019 SCHEDULE




WESTERN MICHIGANBRONCOSLocation: Kalamazoo, MI Stadium: Waldo Stadium Head Coach: Tim Lester - 3rd season2018 Record: 7-6Returning Starters: 17 - Offense: 7 QB’ - Defense: 10Offensive Coordinator: Jake MorelandDefensive Coordinator: Lou Esposito

40

3.75 / 0.75

32.65 (#111 OF 130)

8/31/19 MONMOUTH NJ9/7/19 at Michigan St HOME TEAMS are 5-1 SU & ATS in L6 games of MST-WMU series9/14/19 GEORGIA ST9/21/19 at Syracuse9/28/19 C MICHIGAN ROAD TEAMS are 7-1 SU & 8-0 ATS in L8 games of CMU-WMU series10/5/19 at Toledo ROAD TEAMS are 12-8 ATS in WMU-TOL series since 199910/12/19 MIAMI OHIO10/19/19 at E Michigan ROAD TEAMS are 2-3 SU but 5-0 ATS in L5 games of EMU-WMU series10/26/19 BOWLING GREEN W MICHIGAN is 7-4 SU & ATS vs. BOWLING GREEN since 199811/5/19 BALL ST BALL ST is 10-8 SU & 11-7 ATS vs. W MICHIGAN since 200111/12/19 at Ohio U OVER the total is 5-1 in L6 games of WMU-OHU series11/26/19 at N Illinois N ILLINOIS is 13-8 SU & 15-5 ATS vs. W MICHIGAN since 1998

8/31/18 SYRACUSE 42-55 L 4.5 L 65 O9/8/18 at Michigan 3-49 L 27.5 L 56 U9/15/18 DELAWARE ST 68-0 W -46.5 W 70 U9/22/18 at Georgia St 34-15 W -9.5 W 61 U9/29/18 at Miami Ohio 40-39 W -3 L 53 O10/6/18 E MICHIGAN 27-24 W -4.5 L 58.5 U10/13/18 at Bowling Green 42-35 W -14.5 L 68.5 O10/20/18 at C Michigan 35-10 W -7 W 53.5 U10/25/18 TOLEDO 24-51 L -4 L 68 O11/1/18 OHIO U 14-59 L 3.5 L 64.5 O11/13/18 at Ball St 41-42 L -10 L 57.5 O11/20/18 N ILLINOIS 28-21 W 6.5 W 49 T12/21/18 vs. BYU 18-49 L 10 L 52 O

The Broncos lost some talent with some of their top skill position players transferring since last season, but QB Jon Wassink is back after suffering a season-ending knee injury last October and RB LeVante Bellamy rushed for 1,228 yards last season with six TDs and has the core for a solid offensive line returning. The defense needs to improve for WMU to truly be a contender, but it does return eight starters and 13 of their top 14 tacklers. The Broncos should get two nonconference wins against Monmouth and Georgia State, but they had two very tough games at Michigan State and at Syracuse. If they can pull an upset in one of those two games, then I’d make them a lock to go Over 7.5 wins. As it is, the most pivotal game will probably be at Toledo on Oct. 5 as that should determine the West Division frontrunner. WMU should mostly

roll through the rest of its schedule until a Nov. 12 date at Ohio (a MAC game, but Ohio is in the East Division) with the season finale on Nov. 26 at Northern Illinois likely to play a huge part in the Broncos’ postseason fate (and might be the last win needed to go Over 7.5).

OVER 7.5 FANDUEL


2019 MID-AMERICAN WEST DIVISION


TOP TRENDS FOR 2019







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WESTERN MICHIGANBRONCOS

Points Per Game 29 51Yards Per Point 14.8 75Plays Per Game 75.6 33Time of Possession 33:36 73rd Down Conv. % 35.6% 97Total Yards Per Game 430.2 34Yards Per Play 5.7 54Rush Attempts Per Game 43.7 16Rush Yards Per Game 196.8 35Yards Per Rush Attempt 4.5 50Pass Attempts Per Game 30.2 77Completion % 60.6% 50Passing Yards Per Game 233.3 64Yards Per Pass Attempt 7.7 40Turnovers 1.6 84



2018 34 3.6 0.55 1.3 8-QB 34.9 6.3 13.31 5 31.3 5.75 11.672017 Yes 37.5 6.9 0.03 3.6 5-QB, OC 35.4 5.57 11.24 7-DC 28.4 5.54 13.062016 52.5 26 1.24 -12.1 8 45.9 6.89 11 5 19.9 5.65 17.412015 43.5 15.1 1.36 1.7 9 37.9 7.21 13.66 7 22.8 5.85 16.82

• W MICHIGAN is 6-1 ATS (L7G) on ROAD - After a close SU loss 3 points or less

• W MICHIGAN is 1-15-1 ATS (L17G) at HOME - [vs OPP] After a blowout SU win of 20 points or more

• W MICHIGAN is 8-2 OVER (L10G) at HOME - Favorite of 7 or less points





SCHEDULE STRENGTH

2019 SCHEDULE




TOLEDOROCKETSLocation: Toledo, OH Stadium: Glass Bowl Head Coach: Jason Candle - 4th season2018 Record: 7-6Returning Starters: 11 - Offense: 6 QB - Defense: 5Offensive Coordinator: Brian WrightDefensive Coordinator: Brian George

37

3.25 / 0.5

31.44 (#119 OF 130)

8/31/19 at Kentucky9/14/19 MURRAY ST9/21/19 at Colorado St9/28/19 BYU10/5/19 W MICHIGAN ROAD TEAMS are 12-8 ATS in WMU-TOL series since 199910/12/19 at Bowling Green ROAD TEAMS are 3-4 SU but 6-0 ATS in L7 games of BGSU-TOL series10/19/19 at Ball St BALL ST is 7-13 SU but 12-8 ATS vs. TOLEDO since 199910/26/19 E MICHIGAN HOME TEAMS are 10-5 SU & 11-4 ATS in EMU-TOL series since 200411/5/19 KENT ST FAVORITES are 6-0 SU & 5-1 ATS in L6 games of TOL-KS series11/13/19 N ILLINOIS UNDER the total is 7-0 in L7 games of NIL-TOL series11/20/19 at Buffalo BUFFALO is 2-3 SU but 4-1 ATS in its L5 games vs. TOLEDO11/29/19 at C Michigan FAVORITES are 10-0 SU & ATS in CMU-TOL series since 2009

9/1/18 VMI 66-3 W -48.5 W 57 O9/15/18 MIAMI FL 24-49 L 11.5 L 58.5 O9/22/18 NEVADA 63-44 W -11 W 67.5 O9/29/18 at Fresno St 27-49 L 10.5 L 61.5 O10/6/18 BOWLING GREEN 52-36 W -22.5 L 71 O10/13/18 at E Michigan 26-28 L -2.5 L 62.5 U10/20/18 BUFFALO 17-31 L -3 L 63 U10/25/18 at W Michigan 51-24 W 4 W 68 O10/31/18 BALL ST 45-13 W -20.5 W 64 U11/7/18 at N Illinois 15-38 L 3.5 L 54 U11/15/18 at Kent St 56-34 W -13 W 59.5 O11/23/18 C MICHIGAN 51-13 W -19.5 W 58.5 O12/21/18 vs. Fla International 32-35 L -7 L 57.5 O

The Rockets are the co-favorites to win the MAC, but that doesn’t mean they’re a given to go Over their win total of 8. Actually, I think the number is set just about right as 8-4 does look like Toledo’s most likely finishing record, but I have to say it’s more likely to finish 7-5 (which, assuming that’s 6-2 in the MAC, could still put the Rockets in the conference title game) than go 9-3. Toledo’s nonconference schedule includes Kentucky, Murray State, Colorado State and BYU. It should beat Murray State and if the Rockets can pull an upset in one of the other games, that would certainly improve their chances to get to 9 wins. However, that still wouldn’t be a guarantee as they’re expected to have to battle Western Michigan, Northern Illinois and maybe even Eastern Michigan for the MAC’s West Division crown. The good news – besides the expected return of starting QB Mitchell Guadagni, who

was having a great season until breaking his collarbone – is the Toledo gets the West Division’s other top contenders (Western Michigan, Northern Illinois and possibly Eastern Michigan) all at home in the Glass Bowl. The Rockets aren’t as good as their 2017 MAC champion team with a pass defense that lets other teams stay in games and makes them vulnerable to upsets.

UNDER 8FANDUEL




TOP TRENDS FOR 2019







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TOLEDOROCKETS




2018 43 13.1 0.69 -0.7 6 42.5 6.37 10.77 6 29.4 5.68 14.382017 43 18 2.14 -1.9 5 39.6 7.47 13.52 7 21.6 5.33 16.842016 Yes 44 16.9 1.76 -3.5 7-QB, OC 40.7 7.45 13.45 3-DC 23.8 5.69 16.092015 45.5 21.1 1.65 -3.2 5 36.9 6.47 13.4 8 15.8 4.82 22.59

• TOLEDO is 20-6 ATS (S2000) at HOME - After a blowout SU win of 20 points or more

• TOLEDO is 0-6-1 ATS (L7G) - Favorite of 7 or less points

• TOLEDO is 19-5-1 OVER (L10Y) - Favorite of more than 14 points





SCHEDULE STRENGTH

2019 SCHEDULE




NORTHERN ILLINOISHUSKIESLocation: DeKalb, IL Stadium: Brigham Field at Huskie Stadium Head Coach: Thomas Hammock - 1st season2018 Record: 8-6Returning Starters: 13 - Offense: 6 QB - Defense: 7Offensive Coordinator: Eric Eidsness *Defensive Coordinator: Derrick Jackson *

38

3.25 / 0

37.23 (#77 OF 130)

8/31/19 ILLINOIS ST9/7/19 at Utah9/14/19 at Nebraska9/28/19 at Vanderbilt10/5/19 BALL ST N ILLINOIS is 7-0 SU & ATS in its L7 games vs. BALL ST10/12/19 at Ohio U UNDERDOGS are 3-5 SU but 7-1 ATS in L8 games of NIL-OHU series10/19/19 at Miami Ohio MIAMI OHIO is 2-5 SU but 6-1 ATS in its L7 games vs. N ILLINOIS10/26/19 AKRON ROAD TEAMS are 4-1 SU & 5-0 ATS in L5 games of AKR-NIL series11/2/19 at C Michigan C MICHIGAN is 4-1 SU & 5-0 ATS in its L5 games vs. N ILLINOIS11/13/19 at Toledo UNDER the total is 7-0 in L7 games of NIL-TOL series11/19/19 E MICHIGAN ROAD TEAMS are 11-10 SU & 14-6 ATS in NIL-EMU series since 199811/26/19 W MICHIGAN N ILLINOIS is 13-8 SU & 15-5 ATS vs. W MICHIGAN since 1998

9/1/18 at Iowa 7-33 L 10 L 46.5 U9/8/18 UTAH 6-17 L 13 W 46.5 U9/15/18 C MICHIGAN 24-16 W -13.5 L 48 U9/22/18 at Florida St 19-37 L 10 L 46 O9/29/18 at E Michigan 26-23 W 3.5 W 50.5 U10/6/18 at Ball St 24-16 W -2.5 W 53.5 U10/13/18 OHIO U 24-21 W -5.5 L 52 U10/27/18 at BYU 7-6 W 7 W 44.5 U11/1/18 at Akron 36-26 W -5.5 W 37.5 O11/7/18 TOLEDO 38-15 W -3.5 W 54 U11/14/18 MIAMI OHIO 7-13 L -6.5 L 48 U11/20/18 at W Michigan 21-28 L -6.5 L 49 T11/30/18 vs. Buffalo 30-29 W 3.5 W 51.5 O12/18/18 vs. Uab 13-37 L 1.5 L 41 O

NIU comes into this season as the unlikely defending MAC champions. Buffalo was the best MAC team during the regular season but NIU somehow pulled out a 29-28 victory in the conference title game despite having a rather mediocre offense (averaged just 322 yards and 20 points per game last season). Now, the Huskies not only lose All-American pass rusher Sutton Smith but head coach Rod Carey left for Temple, so it’s a rebuilding job for new coach Thomas Haddock, a former Huskie RB. The defense should carry NIU to contention in the MAC again, but it’s going to be hard to get more than 7 wins if the offense doesn’t drastically improve. After an expected opening win over Illinois State, the Huskies must travel to Utah, Nebraska and Vanderbilt. The Huskies beat BYU last year and Nebraska two years ago, but those were better NIU

teams and it’s hard to see them starting better than 1-3. That’s still not a death knell, but unless the Huskies are better than expected, it’s going to be hard to go on the road to Ohio (Oct. 12) and Toledo (Nov. 13) and come back home with victories. There’s some soft spots on the schedule, but while 7 looks just about right, a 6-6 season is more likely than 8-4.

UNDER 7FANDUEL




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NORTHERN ILLINOISHUSKIES




2018 39 9.4 0.83 0.8 8-QB 26.6 5.04 13.48 6-DC 17.2 4.21 18.52017 39.5 12.2 0.77 1.6 5-QB 31 5.23 12.76 7 18.8 4.46 16.982016 36.5 5.9 0.69 3.7 7- OC 31.4 6.18 15.6 6-DC 25.5 5.5 16.812015 41.5 11.7 0.94 -1.5 5 34.3 5.79 12.93 8 22.6 4.85 17.06

• N ILLINOIS is 7-0 ATS (L7G) at HOME - Underdog of 7 or less points

• N ILLINOIS is 2-8 ATS (L10G) - After a blowout SU loss 20 points or more

• N ILLINOIS is 7-0 UNDER (L7G) at HOME - Underdog of 7 or less points





SCHEDULE STRENGTH

2019 SCHEDULE




EASTERN MICHIGANEAGLESLocation: Ypsilanti, MI Stadium: Rynearson Stadium Head Coach: Chris Creighton - 6th season2018 Record: 7-6Returning Starters: 10 - Offense: 6 - Defense: 4Offensive Coordinator: Aaron KeenDefensive Coordinator: Neal Neathery

32.5

2.5 / 0.75

31.38 (#120 OF 130)

8/31/19 at Coastal Carolina9/7/19 at Kentucky9/14/19 at Illinois9/21/19 C CONN ST10/5/19 at C Michigan ROAD TEAMS are 8-12 SU but 12-8 ATS in EMU-CMU series since 199910/12/19 BALL ST OVER the total is 9-1 in EMU-BLS series since 200910/19/19 W MICHIGAN ROAD TEAMS are 2-3 SU but 5-0 ATS in L5 games of EMU-WMU series10/26/19 at Toledo HOME TEAMS are 10-5 SU & 11-4 ATS in EMU-TOL series since 200411/2/19 BUFFALO HOME TEAMS are 5-0 SU & ATS in L5 games of BUF-EMU series11/12/19 at Akron E MICHIGAN is 0-5 SU but 5-0 ATS in its L5 games at AKRON11/19/19 at N Illinois ROAD TEAMS are 11-10 SU & 14-6 ATS in NIL-EMU series since 199811/29/19 KENT ST KENT ST is 3-1 SU & 4-0 ATS in its L4 games vs. E MICHIGAN

8/31/18 MONMOUTH NJ 51-17 W -22.5 W 60.5 O9/8/18 at Purdue 20-19 W 15 W 50.5 U9/15/18 at Buffalo 28-35 L 3 L 54 O9/22/18 at San Diego St 20-23 L 10.5 W 48.5 U9/29/18 N ILLINOIS 23-26 L -3.5 L 50.5 U10/6/18 at W Michigan 24-27 L 4.5 W 58.5 U10/13/18 TOLEDO 28-26 W 2.5 W 62.5 U10/20/18 at Ball St 42-20 W -2.5 W 45 O10/27/18 ARMY 22-37 L 1.5 L 48 O11/3/18 C MICHIGAN 17-7 W -14 L 46.5 U11/10/18 AKRON 27-7 W -11 W 41.5 U11/23/18 at Kent St 28-20 W -12 L 52.5 U12/15/18 vs. Ga Southern 21-23 L 2.5 W 45.5 U

After being perennial MAC doormats – including a 29-year bowl drought that ended in 2016, Eastern Michigan has been to two bowls in the past three years and is a darkhorse to contend for the MAC West Division title this season. EMU led the MAC in total defense and scoring defense last year and should be the key to success this season, though the offense is being counted on to improve under QB Mike Glass, who threw nine TDs with just one INT last season after replacing Tyler Wiegers. I expect the Eagles to be competitive and capable of pulling some upsets along the way, so while it will be difficult to get to 7 wins, I believe it’s still more likely than to end up 6-6. While other MAC teams have three tough nonconference teams against Power 5 teams, EMU faces Kentucky and Illinois (which wouldn’t shock me if the Eagles pull off an upset) but then has easier games against Coastal Carolina and Central Connecticut

State. They then start the MAC schedule against Central Michigan and Ball State before getting to the tougher past of their schedule. If they’re still short of their total in mid-to-late November, they close the regular season against Akron (Nov. 12) and Kent State (Nov. 29) in two of their last three games, sandwiched around Northern Illinois (Nov. 19), which could be down this year as well.

OVER 6.5FANDUEL




TOP TRENDS FOR 2019







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EASTERN MICHIGANEAGLES

Points Per Game 25 87Yards Per Point 14.6 69Plays Per Game 70.4 77Time of Possession 29:51 673rd Down Conv. % 31.2% 124Total Yards Per Game 364.4 93Yards Per Play 5.2 91Rush Attempts Per Game 37.8 71Rush Yards Per Game 144 93Yards Per Rush Attempt 3.8 96Pass Attempts Per Game 30.1 78Completion % 62.1% 35Passing Yards Per Game 220.4 72Yards Per Pass Attempt 7.3 68Turnovers 1.2 27



2018 37 9.7 0.92 6 6 30.3 5.68 12.94 7 20.6 4.76 16.522017 35.5 7 0.53 5.3 8- OC 27.2 5.66 14.84 8 20.2 5.14 17.352016 32 2.1 0.43 8.5 8-QB 29.8 6.07 15.49 8-DC 27.8 5.64 15.292015 17 -11.8 -0.97 21.7 5 28.2 5.76 14.14 8 40 6.73 12.44

• E MICHIGAN is 12-2-1 ATS (L15G) - After playing TOLEDO

• E MICHIGAN is 2-8 ATS (L10G) - After a blowout SU win of 20 points or more

• E MICHIGAN is 7-0 OVER (L7G) on ROAD - Underdog of more than 20 points





SCHEDULE STRENGTH

2019 SCHEDULE




BALL STCARDINALSLocation: Muncie, IN Stadium: Scheumann Stadium Head Coach: Mike Neu - 4th season2018 Record: 4-8Returning Starters: 17 - Offense: 8 - Defense: 9Offensive Coordinator: Joey LynchDefensive Coordinator: David Elson / Tyler Stockton

29

2 / -0.5

34.27 (#99 OF 130)

8/31/19 vs. Indiana BALL ST is 3-5 SU but 6-2 ATS in its L8 games vs. INDIANA9/7/19 FORDHAM 9/14/19 FLA ATLANTIC9/21/19 at NC State10/5/19 at N Illinois N ILLINOIS is 7-0 SU & ATS in its L7 games vs. BALL ST10/12/19 at E Michigan OVER the total is 9-1 in EMU-BLS series since 200910/19/19 TOLEDO BALL ST is 7-13 SU but 12-8 ATS vs. TOLEDO since 199910/26/19 OHIO U HOME TEAMS are 5-2 SU & 6-1 ATS in L7 games of BLS-OHU series11/5/19 at W Michigan BALL ST is 10-8 SU & 11-7 ATS vs. W MICHIGAN since 200111/16/19 C MICHIGAN ROAD TEAMS are 11-5 SU & 13-3 ATS in CMU-BLS series since 200311/23/19 at Kent St HOME TEAMS are 7-0 SU & 5-1 ATS in L7 games of KS-BLS series11/29/19 MIAMI OHIO MIAMI OHIO is 6-4 SU & 7-3 ATS vs. BALL ST since 2001

8/30/18 C CONN ST 42-6 W -20 W 61.5 U9/8/18 at Notre Dame 16-24 L 34 W 59.5 U9/15/18 at Indiana 10-38 L 15 L 61.5 U9/22/18 W KENTUCKY 20-28 L -3 L 52 U9/29/18 KENT ST 52-24 W -7 W 60 O10/6/18 N ILLINOIS 16-24 L 2.5 L 53.5 U10/13/18 at C Michigan 24-23 W 2 W 55 U10/20/18 E MICHIGAN 20-42 L 2.5 L 45 O10/25/18 at Ohio U 14-52 L 10.5 L 65.5 O10/31/18 at Toledo 13-45 L 20.5 L 64 U11/13/18 W MICHIGAN 42-41 W 10 W 57.5 O11/20/18 at Miami Ohio 21-42 L 14.5 L 56 O

Defense is probably what keeps Ball State among the dregs of the MAC this season. It does return nine starters, but those players allowed an average of 450 yards and 32 points per game. Unless they all mature, the Cardinals are in for a long season. The offense, which averaged 400 yards a game but had a hard time finding the end zone should be improved with QB Drew Plitt expected to win the starting job. Plitt completed 65 percent of this passes but threw eight INTs. He does have a good corps of receivers returning, but it’s still going to be hard to overcome the defense’s shortcomings. The schedule doesn’t help either as Ball State opens with nonconference games against Indiana, Fordham, Florida Atlantic and North Carolina State, with just Fordham being a possible win. The Cardinals also

have the misfortune of being in the tougher West Division of the MAC and doesn’t get to face Akron or Bowling Green from the East Division.

UNDER 4FANDUEL




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BALL STCARDINALS




2018 28.5 -1 0.15 10.1 9-QB 28.3 5.69 15.47 7 29.3 5.54 14.42017 13 -18.8 -1.7 25.6 8 20.5 4.66 17.1 4-DC 39.3 6.36 10.292016 Yes 27 -1.1 -0.52 11.9 6 27.9 5.75 16.42 9-DC 28.9 6.27 15.982015 21.5 -6.3 -1.06 15.3 10 25.8 5.31 15.33 8 32.1 6.36 15.19

• BALL ST is 12-3 ATS (L15G) - VS BIG 10

• BALL ST is 0-7 ATS (L7G) - Revenging a loss vs - N ILLINOIS

• BALL ST is 9-1 OVER (L10G) - VS E MICHIGAN





SCHEDULE STRENGTH

2019 SCHEDULE




CENTRAL MICHIGANCHIPPEWASLocation: Mount Pleasant, MI Stadium: Kelly/Shorts Stadium Head Coach: Jim McElwain - 1st season2018 Record: 1-11Returning Starters: 11 - Offense: 8 QB - Defense: 3Offensive Coordinator: Charlie Frye *Defensive Coordinator: Robb Akey *

24.5

2.25 / 0.5

33.54 (#106 OF 130)

8/29/19 ALBANY9/7/19 at Wisconsin9/14/19 AKRON HOME TEAMS are 5-3 SU & 7-1 ATS in L8 games of AKR-CMU series9/21/19 at Miami Fl9/28/19 at W Michigan ROAD TEAMS are 7-1 SU & 8-0 ATS in L8 games of CMU-WMU series10/5/19 E MICHIGAN ROAD TEAMS are 8-12 SU but 12-8 ATS in EMU-CMU series since 199910/12/19 NEW MEXICO ST10/19/19 at Bowling Green ROAD TEAMS are 5-2 SU & 6-1 ATS in L7 games of BGSU-CMU series10/26/19 at Buffalo ROAD TEAMS are 5-2 SU & ATS in L7 games of CMU-BUF series11/2/19 N ILLINOIS C MICHIGAN is 4-1 SU & 5-0 ATS in its L5 games vs. N ILLINOIS11/16/19 at Ball St ROAD TEAMS are 11-5 SU & 13-3 ATS in CMU-BLS series since 200311/29/19 TOLEDO FAVORITES are 10-0 SU & ATS in CMU-TOL series since 2009

9/1/18 at Kentucky 20-35 L 17 W 50.5 O9/8/18 KANSAS 7-31 L -3 L 48 U9/15/18 at N Illinois 16-24 L 13.5 W 48 U9/22/18 MAINE 17-5 W -7 W 55 U9/29/18 at Michigan St 20-31 L 27.5 W 45.5 O10/6/18 BUFFALO 24-34 L 6.5 L 52 O10/13/18 BALL ST 23-24 L -2 L 55 U10/20/18 W MICHIGAN 10-35 L 7 L 53.5 U10/27/18 at Akron 10-17 L 4 L 43.5 U11/3/18 at E Michigan 7-17 L 14 W 46.5 U11/10/18 BOWLING GREEN 13-24 L -7.5 L 50 U11/23/18 at Toledo 13-51 L 19.5 L 58.5 O

Jim McElwain, the former head coach at Colorado State and Florida who served as Michigan’s receivers coach last season, takes over the Central Michigan program this season after a disastrous 1-11 record last year. But don’t forget that CMU had been to four straight bowls and five in six years before that debacle. There’s still some core talent left from those teams and they’re now joined by QB Quinten Dormady (a transfer from Tennessee via Houston) and WR Kalil Pimpleton (from Virginia Tech). If McElwain can mold the team in preseason drills, this should be a quick turnaround for the Chippewas. After an expected win against FCS Albany in the season open and an expected loss at Wisconsin, Central Michigan should get its second win against Akron on Sept. 14 and already be halfway to their Over/Under of 4 wins. The Chippewas face

Miami (Fla., not Ohio) on Sept. 21 but have another winnable nonconference game Oct. 12 vs. New Mexico State. The West Division of the MAC is pretty competitive, but the Central Michigan has a chance to pulls some upsets and I wouldn’t be surprised if the Chippewas not only go Over with five victories but become bowl-eligible with six.

OVER 4WESTGATE




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CENTRAL MICHIGANCHIPPEWAS


Points Per Game 29.4 76Yards Per Point 12.4 1133rd Down Conv. % 39.9% 71Total Yards Per Game 364 40Yards Per Play 5 33Rush Yards Per Game 216.3 107Yards Per Rush Attempt 4.6 80Completion % 57.4% 48Passing Yards Per Game 147.7 3Yards Per Pass Attempt 6 14Sacks 1.6 105Turnovers 1.8 25


2018 23 -5.1 -0.6 15.7 4 19.9 4.05 13.74 6 25 4.65 13.332017 33.5 6.5 0.8 10.2 9-QB, OC 30.6 5.73 13.3 6 24 4.92 15.322016 30 3.7 0.72 8.6 8 29.6 6.13 13.88 8 25.9 5.42 142015 Yes 36 10.4 1.23 3.5 5 29.3 6.1 14.88 5-DC 18.9 4.88 16.59

• C MICHIGAN is 7-0 ATS (L7G) on ROAD - Favorite of more than 7 points

• C MICHIGAN is 0-7 ATS (L7G) - Revenging a loss vs - TOLEDO

• C MICHIGAN is 7-0 UNDER (L7G) - Before playing BOWLING GREEN



MOUNTAIN WESTCONFERENCE PREVIEW


MOUNTAIN DIVISIONBOISE ST 49.5 2 0.75 34.25 100 9.8 2.2 7.0 1.0UTAH ST 42.5 3.75 -0.25 40.17 66 6.8 5.2 5.0 3.0AIR FORCE 38.5 3.5 -0.25 35.67 85 6.9 5.1 4.7 3.3WYOMING 34.5 3.25 0 35.83 83 5.6 6.4 3.6 4.4NEW MEXICO 26.5 3.25 0 34.54 97 4.1 7.9 2.2 5.8COLORADO ST 28.5 3 0.25 38.23 73 3.1 8.9 2.0 6.0

WEST DIVISIONFRESNO ST 43.5 4 -0.5 34.08 101 8.3 3.7 5.8 2.2SAN DIEGO ST 42 2.75 0.75 35.04 94 8.2 3.8 5.7 2.3NEVADA 36 3.5 0.25 35.52 91 6.2 5.8 4.2 3.8HAWAII 35 2.25 -0.75 37.77 75 5.7 7.3 3.6 4.4UNLV 31.5 2.25 0.5 36.50 80 4.4 7.6 2.9 5.1SAN JOSE ST 25 2.75 -0.75 36.46 81 2.8 9.2 1.5 6.5



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GAMEEAST DIVISION CHAMPION

BOISE STATE

UTAH STATE

BOISE STATE

BOISE STATE

BOISE STATE

UTAH STATE

BOISE STATE

BOISE STATE


FRESNO STATE

SAN DIEGO ST

FRESNO STATE HAWAII SAN

DIEGO STFRESNO STATE

FRESNO STATE

FRESNO STATE

MOUNTAIN WEST CHAMPIONSHIP

FRESNO STATE

SAN DIEGO ST

BOISE STATE

BOISE STATE

BOISE STATE

UTAH STATE

BOISE STATE

BOISE STATE

WRITTEN BY JONATHAN VON TOBEL - @MEJVT


Boise StateIs it any surprise that the favorite to win the Mountain West resides in Boise, Idaho? The Broncos are the even-money favorite at the Westgate SuperBook, and the slight odds-on favorite at FanDuel with a minus-105 price tag. Although, this Broncos team is not as dominant, it seems, as squads of the past. Bryan Harsin heads into 2019 having to replace Brett Rypien, a four-year starter at quarterback. The group of passers they bring in have combined for a total of seven pass attempts, and clearly lack experience. The offense loses a 1,000-yard rusher as well, but the Broncos boast the best offensive line in the conference with all five starters back. Breaking in a new quarterback and running back becomes much easier behind a unit like that. Boise gets seven of their top eight defensive backs to return, so they also own arguably the best secondary in the Mountain West on top of it. Making the Broncos the favorites to win is almost a default each season, but it seems like they sit atop the odds mainly due to the lack of strength in other teams, as opposed to the strength of this current roster.

Fresno State, Air Force and San Diego StateA trio of programs sit at 5/1 to win this conference at the Westgate: Fresno State, Air Force and San Diego State. Fresno is going through what looks like a rebuild on offense, and while Jeff Tedford has done astounding work here, it is hard to be an effective offense with just three starters back. Air Force is a quality candidate, but must get through Boise State to represent the Mountain division in the title game, same with Utah State. The Aggies (7/1) do have one big thing going for them though, quarterback Jordan Love. Love amassed over 3,500 passing yards and led Utah State to 11 wins in 2018. With a quarterback of that level it is hard to overlook a program. With better health than a season ago, the Aztecs are back in the mix as well. Juwan Washington played just eight games last season and should provide SDSU with that presence at running back the program has so longly been associated with. Regardless of how you rank these underdogs there is one thing that is clear: There is a gap between the top five teams in the conference and the rest. It’s hard to make a case for any program on the outside.

Colorado State, UNLV, New Mexico and San Jose StateThere are four options for this category in the Mountain West: Colorado State, UNLV, New Mexico and San Jose State. All four teams sit in the triple-digit range in the odds to win the conference. UNLV is a consistent underachiever that has yet to allow fewer than 430 yards per game on defense under Tony Sanchez. New Mexico returns just two members of a defense that allowed 36.6 points per game, and could be in for an even worse season than the three wins in 2018. Colorado State loses its leading rusher and receiver on offense and draws a brutal schedule. The Spartans of San Jose could actually be very much improved this season with 13 returning starters, but the talent still pales in comparison to the top programs in the conference. There is not a case to be made for any of these four programs as conference champions.

2019 MOUNTAIN WEST CONFERENCE PREVIEW

THE FAVORITE

LIVE DOGS

DEAD MONEY

BIG GAMES ON THE BOARDAir Force at Boise State, Sep. 20This Mountain matchup will carry weight at the end of the year when it comes to deciding the division winner. The Falcons are actually 3-2 straight up in the last five against the Broncos, but those two losses have come in the last two years.

Fresno State at San Diego State, Nov. 15If Fresno State can successfully compete in the Mountain West despite the loss of talent this becomes a huge contest. The Bulldogs have won the last two meetings.

Boise State at Utah State, Nov. 23A revenge spot for the Aggies, who dropped a road game last season with the division on the line. Boise will likely be a road favorite in a game that could once again have conference title implications.

San Diego State at Hawai’i, Nov. 23On the same day two potential West representatives will meet. The Rainbow Warriors return 18 starters after a surprising run to a bowl last season. This could be an extremely important game in deciding the West. SDSU will be favored, but not by much.




SCHEDULE STRENGTH

2019 SCHEDULE




2019 MOUNTAIN WEST MOUNTAIN DIVISION

BOISE STBRONCOSLocation: Boise, ID Stadium: Albertsons Stadium Head Coach: Bryan Harsin - 6th season2018 Record: 10-3Returning Starters: 13 - Offense: 6 - Defense: 7Offensive Coordinator: Zak Hill / Eric KiesauDefensive Coordinator: Jeff Schmedding / Spencer Danielson *

49.5

2 / 0.75

34.25 (#100 OF 130)

8/31/19 vs. Florida St9/7/19 MARSHALL9/14/19 PORTLAND ST9/21/19 AIR FORCE AIR FORCE is 3-4 SU but 5-1 ATS in its L7 games vs. BOISE ST10/5/19 at UNLV ROAD TEAMS are 1-3 SU but 4-0 ATS in L4 games of BSU-UNLV series10/12/19 HAWAII FAVORITES are 5-0 SU & ATS in L5 games of BSU-HAW series10/19/19 at BYU ROAD TEAMS are 1-3 SU but 4-0 ATS in L4 games of BSU-BYU series11/2/19 at San Jose St FAVORITES are 6-0 SU & 5-1 ATS in L6 games of BSU-SJS series11/9/19 WYOMING UNDER the total is 5-0 in L5 games of WYO-BSU series at BOISE ST11/16/19 NEW MEXICO ROAD TEAMS are 4-1 SU & 5-0 ATS in L5 games of BSU-NM series11/23/19 at Utah St BOISE ST is 15-1 SU & 12-3 ATS vs. UTAH ST since 199811/30/19 at Colorado St FAVORITES are 6-0 SU & 5-1 ATS in L6 games of BSU-CSU series

9/1/18 at Troy 56-20 W -8.5 W 48.5 O9/8/18 CONNECTICUT 62-7 W -33.5 W 63 O9/15/18 at Oklahoma St 21-44 L -1 L 66 U9/29/18 at Wyoming 34-14 W -15 W 46.5 O10/6/18 SAN DIEGO ST 13-19 L -13 L 50.5 U10/13/18 at Nevada 31-27 W -14 L 58 T10/19/18 COLORADO ST 56-28 W -23.5 W 61.5 O10/27/18 at Air Force 48-38 W -10 T 57 O11/3/18 BYU 21-16 W -12 L 52.5 U11/9/18 FRESNO ST 24-17 W 2 W 55 U11/16/18 at New Mexico 45-14 W -22 W 61.5 U11/24/18 UTAH ST 33-24 W -3 W 63 U12/1/18 FRESNO ST 16-19 L -2 L 51 U

Replacing a four-year starting quarterback is no easy task, but it is something Bryan Harsin and the Broncos must do if they are to achieve double-digit wins for the fourth consecutive season. The keys will likely be handed off to freshman Hank Bachmeier, but even if that is the right choice there is still the matter of replacing a 1,400 yard rusher. Andrew Van Buren returns after rushing for 163 yards as a true freshman a season ago, and will attempt to be the next in what has been a long line of talented running backs in Boise. The two youngsters have the benefit of an offensive line that returns all five starters, three members of which are seniors. It’s hard to see the Broncos matching the 35.4 points per game put up in 2018 with so much youth at key skill positions, so a lot will fall on the defense. Both the defensive line and defensive backfield return three starters, and the unit as a whole is capable

of matching its statistical output from 2018. However, with the lack of experience at key positions on offense it is hard to bet Over 10 wins with any confidence. The Broncos will be in Jacksonville to start the season against Florida State, and the play host to Marshall. Boise also has to make trips to BYU and Utah State. Bettors should not expect this team to lose just one game this season.

UNDER 10FANDUEL



TOP TRENDS FOR 2019







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BOISE STBRONCOS

Points Per Game 35.4 18Yards Per Point 13 28Plays Per Game 77.8 15Time of Possession 33:03 123rd Down Conv. % 52.5% 2Total Yards Per Game 459.5 19Yards Per Play 5.9 36Rush Attempts Per Game 39.9 51Rush Yards Per Game 167.5 63Yards Per Rush Attempt 4.2 74Pass Attempts Per Game 35.4 37Completion % 67.4% 9Passing Yards Per Game 292 17Yards Per Pass Attempt 8.3 20Turnovers 1 15

Points Per Game 22.1 23Yards Per Point 16.1 253rd Down Conv. % 31.1% 9Total Yards Per Game 355.9 34Yards Per Play 5.4 51Rush Yards Per Game 122.9 20Yards Per Rush Attempt 3.6 23Completion % 62.8% 96Passing Yards Per Game 233 67Yards Per Pass Attempt 7.9 98Sacks 3 15Turnovers 1.8 20


2018 51.5 23.6 1.55 -8.6 6-QB 40.7 6.72 12.44 10 17.1 5.17 19.022017 48.5 20 2.09 -9.9 5 38.4 6.5 11.62 4 18.3 4.41 16.662016 47.5 22.5 3.05 -7 8- OC 38.4 7.75 13.64 5-DC 15.9 4.7 22.042015 47.5 20.5 1.27 -9.5 9-QB, OC 39.2 6.21 12.96 8 18.7 4.94 17.65

• BOISE ST is 22-2-1 ATS (L25G) on ROAD - [vs OPP] After SU loss

• BOISE ST is 0-7 ATS (L7G) at HOME - as AP top 10

• BOISE ST is 14-2 UNDER (L5Y) at HOME - On Saturday





SCHEDULE STRENGTH

2019 SCHEDULE




UTAH STAGGIESLocation: Logan, UT Stadium: Merlin Olsen Field at Maverik Stadium Head Coach: Gary Andersen - 1st season2018 Record: 11-2Returning Starters: 9 - Offense: 2 QB - Defense: 7Offensive Coordinator: Mike Sanford Jr. *Defensive Coordinator: Justin Ena *

42.5

3.75 / -0.25

40.17 (#66 OF 130)

8/30/19 at Wake Forest9/7/19 STONY BROOK9/21/19 at San Diego St SAN DIEGO ST is 3-0 SU & ATS in its L3 games vs. UTAH ST9/28/19 COLORADO ST HOME TEAMS are 4-3 SU & 5-2 ATS in L7 games of CSU-UTS series10/5/19 at LSU10/19/19 NEVADA UNDERDOGS are 2-3 SU but 5-0 ATS in L5 games of UTS-NEV series10/26/19 at Air Force HOME TEAMS are 5-1 SU & ATS in L6 games of AF-UTS series11/2/19 BYU UNDERDOGS are 5-6 SU but 9-2 ATS in UTS-BYU series since 200811/9/19 at Fresno St UNDERDOGS are 2-8 SU but 7-3 ATS in UTS-FRS series since 200511/16/19 WYOMING FAVORITES are 10-0 SU & 8-2 ATS in WYO-UTS series since 200311/23/19 BOISE ST BOISE ST is 15-1 SU & 12-3 ATS vs. UTAH ST since 199811/30/19 at New Mexico

8/31/18 at Michigan St 31-38 L 23.5 W 52.5 O9/8/18 NEW MEXICO ST 60-13 W -22 W 63 O9/13/18 TENNESSEE TECH 73-12 W -47.5 W 64.5 O9/22/18 AIR FORCE 42-32 W -9 W 60.5 O10/5/18 at BYU 45-20 W 1 W 55 O10/13/18 UNLV 59-28 W -27 W 65 O10/20/18 at Wyoming 24-16 W -13 L 50.5 U10/27/18 NEW MEXICO 61-19 W -19 W 65.5 O11/3/18 at Hawaii 56-17 W -17.5 W 73 T11/10/18 SAN JOSE ST 62-24 W -31 W 62.5 O11/17/18 at Colorado St 29-24 W -29.5 L 66.5 U11/24/18 at Boise St 24-33 L 3 L 63 U12/15/18 vs. North Texas 52-13 W -7 W 67.5 U

On the surface, it seems Utah State is due for some regression this season. In 2018, Matt Wells’ program reached unprecedented heights on offense. The Aggies scored 47.5 points and 497 yards per game, all while averaging 6.8 yards per play and 10.5 yards per pass attempt. Jordan Love is back at quarterback to lead the offense, but only one other starter from last year’s record-setting offense is back with him. Matt Wells also departs for the Big 12. There will be a drop, but how big will it be for Utah State? The defense does get back seven members, and the Aggies were a good defensive team. Especially in the front seven, which limited opponents to 3.5 yards per carry and returns five this season. Safety is the position group on defense that suffers the most losses, as two starters depart. The question with this team becomes, how much value can a quarterback like Love carry with so much turnover around him? Especially with a very taxing schedule. The Aggies will make road

trips to Wake Forest and LSU this season, and they draw each contender for the Mountain West. San Diego State, Air Force, Fresno State and Boise State will all meet Utah State. The Aggies do draw the Broncos at home in a revenge spot, but those others are all road trips. The strength of schedule, and lack of returning personnel on offense, make this an Under play on the win total.

UNDER 7FANDUEL




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UTAH STAGGIES


Points Per Game 23.1 34Yards Per Point 17 153rd Down Conv. % 35.0% 28Total Yards Per Game 392.3 58Yards Per Play 5 30Rush Yards Per Game 142.4 36Yards Per Rush Attempt 3.5 18Completion % 54.8% 19Passing Yards Per Game 249.9 93Yards Per Pass Attempt 7 49Sacks 2.6 34Turnovers 2.5 2


2018 52 27.1 2.05 -13.2 9-QB 48.6 7.01 10.35 9-DC 21.5 4.96 17.512017 34.5 9.3 1.01 8.3 5- OC 32.9 5.99 12.63 5 23.6 4.99 16.22016 32.5 6.1 1.63 3.9 7- OC 29.1 6.36 14.44 3-DC 23 4.73 14.932015 40 12.5 1.5 -6.8 9- OC 34.8 6.03 11.71 6-DC 22.3 4.53 13.86

• UTAH ST is 7-0 ATS (L7G) at HOME - [vs OPP] After SU loss

• UTAH ST is 6-17 ATS (L5Y) - [vs OPP] After SU win

• UTAH ST is 7-0 OVER (L7G) on ROAD - Favorite of 7 or less points





SCHEDULE STRENGTH

2019 SCHEDULE




AIR FORCEFALCONSLocation: Colorado Springs, CO Stadium: Falcon Stadium Head Coach: Troy Calhoun - 13th season2018 Record: 5-7Returning Starters: 14 - Offense: 7 QB - Defense: 7Offensive Coordinator: Mike ThiessenDefensive Coordinator: John Rudzinski

38.5

3.5 / -0.25

35.67 (#85 OF 130)

8/31/19 COLGATE9/14/19 at Colorado9/21/19 at Boise St AIR FORCE is 3-4 SU but 5-1 ATS in its L7 games vs. BOISE ST9/28/19 SAN JOSE ST HOME TEAMS are 4-0 ATS in L4 games of AF-SJS series10/5/19 at Navy UNDER the total is 12-3 in AF-NAV series since 199210/12/19 FRESNO ST HOME TEAMS are 2-4 SU but 5-1 ATS in L6 games of FRS-AF series10/19/19 at Hawaii HAWAII is 2-4 SU but 5-1 ATS in its L6 games vs. AIR FORCE10/26/19 UTAH ST HOME TEAMS are 5-1 SU & ATS in L6 games of AF-UTS series11/2/19 ARMY UNDER the total is 5-0 in L5 games of ARM-AF series11/9/19 at New Mexico OVER the total is 6-0 in L6 games of NM-AF series11/16/19 at Colorado St OVER the total is 7-0 in L7 games of CSU-AF series at COLORADO ST11/30/19 WYOMING WYOMING is 6-4 SU & 10-0 ATS vs. AIR FORCE since 2009

9/1/18 STONY BROOK 38-0 W -15 W 58.5 U9/8/18 at Fla Atlantic 27-33 L 7.5 W 59.5 O9/22/18 at Utah St 32-42 L 9 L 60.5 O9/29/18 NEVADA 25-28 L -4 L 62.5 U10/6/18 NAVY 35-7 W 2 W 47 U10/12/18 at San Diego St 17-21 L 11 W 42.5 U10/19/18 at UNLV 41-35 W -9.5 L 54.5 O10/27/18 BOISE ST 38-48 L 10 T 57 O11/3/18 at Army 14-17 L 4.5 W 41.5 U11/10/18 NEW MEXICO 42-24 W -14 W 55.5 O11/17/18 at Wyoming 27-35 L 3 L 43 O11/22/18 COLORADO ST 27-19 W -15 L 63.5 U

After back-to-back five-win seasons, the Falcons seem to be prepared for another winning year under Troy Calhoun. Air Force brings back 14 starters this season, two of which are quarterbacks that made 10 starts between them a season ago. Even better for this offense is the return of six of eight leading rushers, led by Kadin Remsberg. The offensive line loses just one member, an All-Conference guard, and has enough back to help maintain the streak of five straight seasons with over 400 yards per game. An offense that averaged 30.3 points per game could actually improve this season. Calhoun gets two starters back along his three-man front on defense, and two return at linebacker as well. The front seven was an absolute strength for Air Force in 2018, giving up only 117 yards per game on the ground and just 3.5 yards per carry. With such a manageable schedule, and production on both

sides of the ball, contending for a Mountain West title is in the cards for Air Force. Three difficult road trips stand out on the schedule: Boise State, Hawaii and Navy. The home schedule has Utah State and Army on consecutive weeks, which is a huge challenge as well. Eight wins is likely Air Force’s best season when looking at this schedule, but it is clearly attainable. The lean is to the over.

OVER 6.5FANDUEL




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AIR FORCEFALCONS




2018 38.5 12.2 0.55 3.2 5-QB 33.9 6.08 13.16 6 21.8 5.53 15.52017 37 6 -0.47 3.6 6 35.1 5.91 12.73 1 29.1 6.37 12.672016 44 11.1 0.61 -3.5 5-QB 34.4 6.18 13.57 9 23.3 5.58 15.412015 41.5 14.9 1.42 0.2 7-QB 36.2 6.69 13.06 4 21.3 5.26 15.21

• AIR FORCE is 18-7-1 ATS (S2000) on ROAD - 1000 or more travel miles

• AIR FORCE is 0-10 ATS (L10G) - VS WYOMING

• AIR FORCE is 13-2 OVER (L15G) on ROAD - [vs OPP] After a conference SU loss





SCHEDULE STRENGTH

2019 SCHEDULE




WYOMINGCOWBOYSLocation: Laramie, WY Stadium: Jonah Field at War Memorial Stadium Head Coach: Craig Bohl - 6th season2018 Record: 6-6Returning Starters: 11 - Offense: 5 QB - Defense: 6Offensive Coordinator: Brent VigenDefensive Coordinator: Jake Dickert

34.5

3.25 / 0

35.83 (#83 OF 130)

8/31/19 MISSOURI9/7/19 at Texas St Univ HOME TEAMS are 3-0 SU & ATS in L3 games of WYO-TSU series9/14/19 IDAHO WYOMING is 3-0 SU & ATS in its L3 games vs. IDAHO9/21/19 at Tulsa HOME TEAMS are 3-0 SU & ATS in L3 games of WYO-TLS series9/28/19 UNLV OVER the total is 6-0 in L6 games of UNLV-WYO series at WYOMING10/12/19 at San Diego St HOME TEAMS are 13-9 SU & 14-6 ATS in SDS-WYO series since 199310/19/19 NEW MEXICO NEW MEXICO is 12-8 SU & 13-7 ATS vs. WYOMING since 199910/26/19 NEVADA WYOMING is 2-1 SU & 3-0 ATS in its L3 games vs. NEVADA11/9/19 at Boise St UNDER the total is 5-0 in L5 games of WYO-BSU series at BOISE ST11/16/19 at Utah St FAVORITES are 10-0 SU & 8-2 ATS in WYO-UTS series since 200311/23/19 COLORADO ST ROAD TEAMS are 15-12 SU & 17-10 ATS in WYO-CSU series since 199211/30/19 at Air Force WYOMING is 6-4 SU & 10-0 ATS vs. AIR FORCE since 2009

8/25/18 at New Mexico St 29-7 W -5.5 W 46.5 U9/1/18 WASHINGTON ST 19-41 L 3 L 45 O9/8/18 at Missouri 13-40 L 19.5 L 52.5 O9/15/18 WOFFORD 17-14 W -13.5 L 47.5 U9/29/18 BOISE ST 14-34 L 15 L 46.5 O10/6/18 at Hawaii 13-17 L -3 L 51.5 U10/13/18 at Fresno St 3-27 L 17.5 L 44 U10/20/18 UTAH ST 16-24 L 13 W 50.5 U10/26/18 at Colorado St 34-21 W -3 W 47.5 O11/3/18 SAN JOSE ST 24-9 W -17.5 L 39.5 U11/17/18 AIR FORCE 35-27 W -3 W 43 O11/24/18 at New Mexico 31-3 W -7 W 42.5 U

Defense has been the strength of Wyoming the last two seasons under Craig Bohl. However, this season it is hard to see how this unit will be anything like the ones bettors of Mountain West football knew. The defensive line returns just on starter, and while the linebackers get their top two back the depth consists of mostly underclassmen. The secondary, which has always been opportunistic and is big reason why Wyoming plus-31 in the turnover category the last three seasons combined, loses a massive piece in Andrew Wingard. Wyoming returns two quarterbacks with starting experience, but the passing offense was pedestrian in 2018, with averages of 132 passing yards per game and 5.1 yards per play. To make matters worse, the Cowboys lose their leading rusher and top two receivers. Similar to the linebacking corps on defense, most of the depth is underclassmen. At running back, there are four true freshman in the rotation. They open play against

Missouri, and have road trips to San Diego State, Boise State, Utah State and Air Force. That leaves what are essentially coin-flip spots against UNLV, Nevada and Colorado State at home as spots in which the Cowboys need wins to surpass their win total. Wyoming has a brutal schedule, a lack of depth and underwhelming quarterbacks in 2019. There is no case in which an over looks like a feasible option.

UNDER 5.5FANDUEL




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WYOMINGCOWBOYS

Points Per Game 21 110Yards Per Point 15.9 95Plays Per Game 65.5 124Time of Possession 30:05 593rd Down Conv. % 35.9% 94Total Yards Per Game 333.1 115Yards Per Play 5.1 96Rush Attempts Per Game 42.3 25Rush Yards Per Game 210.2 26Yards Per Rush Attempt 5 26Pass Attempts Per Game 21.3 124Completion % 47.0% 128Passing Yards Per Game 122.9 126Yards Per Pass Attempt 5.8 120Turnovers 0.9 7



2018 40 8.3 1.26 5 9 24.3 5.66 14.93 8 16 4.4 18.692017 40.5 8.4 0.43 -1.6 6 24 4.88 12.44 8-DC 15.6 4.45 20.572016 39 10.5 0.53 1.5 9-QB 39.4 6.67 12.07 8 28.9 6.14 14.922015 21.5 -8.3 -0.15 18 5 21.4 5.88 17.98 4 29.7 6.02 13.38

• WYOMING is 10-0 ATS (L10G) - [vs OPP] Head coach - CALHOUN

• WYOMING is 3-14-1 ATS (L18G) on ROAD - [vs OPP] After a blowout SU win of 20 points or more

• WYOMING is 6-0-1 OVER (L7G) at HOME - VS UNLV





SCHEDULE STRENGTH

2019 SCHEDULE




NEW MEXICOLOBOSLocation: Albuquerque, NM Stadium: Dreamstyle Stadium Head Coach: Bob Davie - 8th season2018 Record: 3-9Returning Starters: 10 - Offense: 8 QB - Defense: 2Offensive Coordinator: Joe Dailey *Defensive Coordinator: Jordan Peterson *

26.5

3.25 / 0

34.54 (#97 OF 130)

8/31/19 SAM HOUSTON ST9/14/19 at Notre Dame9/21/19 NEW MEXICO ST ROAD TEAMS are 12-9 SU & 15-6 ATS in NM-NMS series since 19989/28/19 at Liberty10/5/19 at San Jose St SAN JOSE ST is 3-1 SU & 4-0 ATS in its L4 games vs. NEW MEXICO10/12/19 COLORADO ST HOME TEAMS are 8-4 SU & 9-2 ATS in NM-CSU series since 200710/19/19 at Wyoming NEW MEXICO is 12-8 SU & 13-7 ATS vs. WYOMING since 199910/26/19 HAWAII ROAD TEAMS are 4-1 SU & 5-0 ATS in L5 games of HAW-NM series11/2/19 at Nevada UNDER the total is 4-1 in L5 games of NM-NEV series11/9/19 AIR FORCE OVER the total is 6-0 in L6 games of NM-AF series11/16/19 at Boise St ROAD TEAMS are 4-1 SU & 5-0 ATS in L5 games of BSU-NM series11/30/19 UTAH ST

9/1/18 INCARNATE WORD 62-30 W -35.5 L 63.5 O9/8/18 at Wisconsin 14-45 L 36 W 58 O9/15/18 at New Mexico St 42-25 W -3 W 60.5 O9/29/18 LIBERTY 43-52 L -7 L 65 O10/6/18 at UNLV 50-14 W 9 W 63 O10/13/18 at Colorado St 18-20 L -1 L 61.5 U10/20/18 FRESNO ST 7-38 L 14.5 L 52 U10/27/18 at Utah St 19-61 L 19 L 65.5 O11/3/18 SAN DIEGO ST 23-31 L 12.5 W 45.5 O11/10/18 at Air Force 24-42 L 14 L 55.5 O11/16/18 BOISE ST 14-45 L 22 L 61.5 U11/24/18 WYOMING 3-31 L 7 L 42.5 U

After consecutive three-win seasons, the Lobos have two new coordinators and a plethora of returning production on offense. The issue is that some of that returning production was abysmal in 2018, namely at quarterback. New Mexico signal-callers combined to complete just 53 percent of passes while throwing 17 interceptions last season. Tevaka Tuioti and Sherirron Jones return, and they add a JUCO transfer into the mix as well. It cannot get much worse at the position, and it does not help that the Lobos lose their top two rushers as well. Not all is lost on offense. The offensive line does return four starters, which should help offset the lack of experience at the running back position. Only two starters return on defense, and New Mexico is relying on many JUCO transfers to fill the holes at linebacker and defensive back. This unit allowed 357 rush yards per game over its last three contests in 2018, and could be just as bad in 2019. If there is a saving grace for this team it is a

schedule that is completely manageable. Bettors can chalk up the road trip to South Bend as a loss, and the Lobos will be a sizable underdog on the road against Boise State. After that, the remaining road games will be winnable: Liberty, San Jose State, Wyoming and Nevada. The home games are very quality opponents, but they do avoid Fresno State and San Diego State this season. This is an under play on the win total.

UNDER 5FANDUEL




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NEW MEXICOLOBOS


Points Per Game 36.7 113Yards Per Point 12.7 1083rd Down Conv. % 44.2% 108Total Yards Per Game 464.6 113Yards Per Play 6 101Rush Yards Per Game 214.6 103Yards Per Rush Attempt 4.7 87Completion % 58.6% 59Passing Yards Per Game 250 94Yards Per Pass Attempt 8.5 109Sacks 2.1 62Turnovers 1.8 26


2018 25 -2.5 -0.56 13.7 7-OC 29.3 5.37 12.12 6 31.8 5.92 13.962017 26.5 -5.2 0.09 9.4 7 22.8 5.86 16.81 3 28 5.78 13.392016 39 8.2 0.97 1.9 5 37 7.16 13.04 10 28.8 6.19 13.462015 34 2.9 -0.03 17.4 7 27.4 5.87 13.88 7 24.5 5.9 17.56

• NEW MEXICO is 14-4 ATS (L18G) - Before playing COLORADO ST

• NEW MEXICO is 1-7 ATS (L8G) at HOME - After a blowout SU win of 20 points or more

• NEW MEXICO is 6-0-2 UNDER (L8G) at HOME - After a blowout SU win of 20 points or more





SCHEDULE STRENGTH

2019 SCHEDULE




COLORADO STRAMSLocation: Fort Collins, CO Stadium: Sonny Lubick Field at Canvas Stadium Head Coach: Mike Bobo - 5th season2018 Record: 3-9Returning Starters: 11 - Offense: 5 QB - Defense: 6Offensive Coordinator: Dave JohnsonDefensive Coordinator: John Jancek

28.5

3 / 0.25

38.23 (#73 OF 130)

8/30/19 vs. Colorado ROAD TEAMS are 2-3 SU but 5-0 ATS in L5 games of COL-CSU series9/7/19 W ILLINOIS9/14/19 at Arkansas9/21/19 TOLEDO9/28/19 at Utah St HOME TEAMS are 4-3 SU & 5-2 ATS in L7 games of CSU-UTS series10/5/19 SAN DIEGO ST ROAD TEAMS are 15-6 SU & ATS in CSU-SDS series since 199310/12/19 at New Mexico HOME TEAMS are 8-4 SU & 9-2 ATS in NM-CSU series since 200710/26/19 at Fresno St HOME TEAMS are 6-4 SU & 8-2 ATS in FRS-CSU series since 199611/2/19 UNLV COLORADO ST is 6-0 SU & ATS in its L6 games hosting UNLV11/16/19 AIR FORCE OVER the total is 7-0 in L7 games of CSU-AF series at COLORADO ST11/23/19 at Wyoming ROAD TEAMS are 15-12 SU & 17-10 ATS in WYO-CSU series since 199211/30/19 BOISE ST FAVORITES are 6-0 SU & 5-1 ATS in L6 games of BSU-CSU series

8/25/18 HAWAII 34-43 L -17 L 57.5 O8/31/18 vs. Colorado 13-45 L 7 L 65 U9/8/18 ARKANSAS 34-27 W 14 W 70 U9/15/18 at Florida 10-48 L 21.5 L 59.5 U9/22/18 ILLINOIS ST 19-35 L -4.5 L 58.5 U10/6/18 at San Jose St 42-30 W -3 W 60 O10/13/18 NEW MEXICO 20-18 W 1 W 61.5 U10/19/18 at Boise St 28-56 L 23.5 L 61.5 O10/26/18 WYOMING 21-34 L 3 L 47.5 O11/10/18 at Nevada 10-49 L 14 L 62 U11/17/18 UTAH ST 24-29 L 29.5 W 66.5 U11/22/18 at Air Force 19-27 L 15 W 63.5 U

In three of his four seasons in Fort Collins, Mike Bobo has led Colorado State to winning records. After a disappointing three-win campaign in 2018 it looks like there could be some improvement coming. First, the quarterback position seems to be in good hands. Collin Hill is back after making four starts a year ago, and he will battle with Nebraska transfer Patrick O’Brien for the job. The offense loses its leading rusher and receiver, but returns the two primary backups at running back and they add Auburn transfer Nate Craig-Meyers to the receiving corps. This crew is talented and experienced, and should resemble the offenses of Bobo’s second and third year that averaged over 30 points per game. The losses in the front seven are significant with the top tacklers at linebacker needing to be replaced. However, seven of nine return along the defensive line and two starters are back in

the secondary where there is a wealth of experience. The schedule is not the easiest, with road trips to Arkansas, Utah State and Fresno State included. The Rams even draw Boise State and Air Force at home, along with nonconference opponent Toledo. However, if Colorado State can show the improvement expected this season, then four wins should be an attainable goal.

OVER 3.5FANDUEL




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COLORADO STRAMS


Points Per Game 36.9 114Yards Per Point 12 1203rd Down Conv. % 39.7% 68Total Yards Per Game 444.5 96Yards Per Play 6.6 121Rush Yards Per Game 216 106Yards Per Rush Attempt 5.3 119Completion % 64.7% 116Passing Yards Per Game 228.5 63Yards Per Pass Attempt 9.1 123Sacks 1.5 114Turnovers 1.1 108


2018 28 -4.8 -0.23 15 4-OC 26.7 6.02 16.81 5-DC 31.5 6.25 13.222017 40 10.9 1.11 -1.3 6 35.3 7.03 14.83 9 24.4 5.92 16.712016 44.5 14.6 1.46 -4 6 36.5 7.02 13.35 4-DC 21.9 5.56 17.122015 Yes 35.5 3.9 0.29 7.5 7-QB, OC 30.3 5.99 13.86 8-DC 26.4 5.7 14.82

• COLORADO ST is 8-2 ATS (L10G) on ROAD - After a blowout SU win of 20 points or more

• COLORADO ST is 0-6-1 ATS (L7G) at NEUT - with Head coach - BOBO

• COLORADO ST is 10-0 UNDER (L10G) at NEUT - Revenging a loss





SCHEDULE STRENGTH

2019 SCHEDULE




FRESNO STBULLDOGSLocation: Fresno, CA Stadium: Bulldog Stadium at Jim Sweeney Field Head Coach: Jeff Tedford - 3rd season2018 Record: 12-2Returning Starters: 9 - Offense: 3 - Defense: 6Offensive Coordinator: Ryan Grubb *Defensive Coordinator: Bert Watts

43.5

4 / -0.5

34.08 (#101 OF 130)

8/31/19 at USC9/7/19 MINNESOTA9/21/19 SACRAMENTO ST9/28/19 at New Mexico St UNDER the total is 6-1 in L7 games of NMS-FRS series10/12/19 at Air Force HOME TEAMS are 2-4 SU but 5-1 ATS in L6 games of FRS-AF series10/19/19 UNLV ROAD TEAMS are 3-0 SU & ATS in L3 games of FRS-UNLV series10/26/19 COLORADO ST HOME TEAMS are 6-4 SU & 8-2 ATS in FRS-CSU series since 199611/2/19 at Hawaii UNDERDOGS are 10-15 SU but 15-10 ATS in FRS-HAW series since 199411/9/19 UTAH ST UNDERDOGS are 2-8 SU but 7-3 ATS in UTS-FRS series since 200511/16/19 at San Diego St UNDER the total is 6-0 in L6 games of SDS-FRS series11/23/19 NEVADA ROAD TEAMS are 11-10 SU & 15-6 ATS in NEV-FRS series since 199811/30/19 at San Jose St HOME TEAMS are 13-8 SU & 12-8 ATS in SJS-FRS series since 1997

9/1/18 IDAHO 79-13 W -24.5 W 50 O9/8/18 at Minnesota 14-21 L -1 L 50.5 U9/15/18 at UCLA 38-14 W -2.5 W 52.5 U9/29/18 TOLEDO 49-27 W -10.5 W 61.5 O10/6/18 at Nevada 21-3 W -16.5 W 59 U10/13/18 WYOMING 27-3 W -17.5 W 44 U10/20/18 at New Mexico 38-7 W -14.5 W 52 U10/27/18 HAWAII 50-20 W -23.5 W 59.5 O11/3/18 at UNLV 48-3 W -27 W 59.5 U11/9/18 at Boise St 17-24 L -2 L 55 U11/17/18 SAN DIEGO ST 23-14 W -10 L 42 U11/24/18 SAN JOSE ST 31-13 W -31.5 L 52 U12/1/18 at Boise St 19-16 W 2 W 51 U12/15/18 vs. Arizona St 31-20 W -6 W 54.5 U

Jeff Tedford enters his third season at Fresno, and the first two could not have gone any better. The Bulldogs won 22 games, appeared in two Mountain West title games and won it last season. Tedford faces another big challenge in 2019, as his offense is stripped of experience and talent. Gone is quarterback Marcus McMaryion who finished seventh in completion percentage in 2018, and replacing him is a group that has thrown just 12 passes at this level. Fresno State will be without KeeSean Johnson, their career receiving leader, and four starting offensive linemen depart as well. It will be almost impossible to replicate the 34.6 points per game posted by the Bulldogs last season. On defense, the losses are not as stark. Six of seven are back along the defensive line, and four of the top six return in the secondary. The biggest strength is at linebacker, where three starters return and this group will likely be the backbone of the defense. With so many questions on offense though, is it reasonable to expect nine wins

in 2019? They have two Power Five opponents to open the season, at Southern California and home against Minnesota, and the schedule lightens up after that. Fresno must travel to Air Force, Hawaii and San Diego but their home schedule is workable. Having said that, with the loss of so much production on offense it seems that eight wins will be the perfect season for Tedford and the ‘Dogs, so play this under.

UNDER 8FANDUEL


2019 MOUNTAIN WEST WEST DIVISION


TOP TRENDS FOR 2019







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FRESNO STBULLDOGS




2018 54.5 29 2.26 -13 7-QB 37.9 6.71 11.95 7-DC 8.9 4.46 34.162017 Yes 45 16.5 1.65 -1.9 10- OC 30.2 6.25 13.75 6-DC 13.7 4.59 21.892016 19 -6.2 -0.39 16.8 7-QB 19.5 4.99 18.03 5 25.7 5.38 15.162015 23 -8.1 -0.69 19.4 6-QB 25.5 4.92 13.25 5 33.7 5.6 12.41

• FRESNO ST is 7-0 ATS (L7G) - [vs OPP] After a conference SU win

• FRESNO ST is 2-8 ATS (L10G) on ROAD - [vs OPP] Less than 6 days rest

• FRESNO ST is 10-0 UNDER (L10G) on ROAD - with Head coach - TEDFORD





SCHEDULE STRENGTH

2019 SCHEDULE




SAN DIEGO STAZTECSLocation: San Diego, CA Stadium: SDCCU Stadium Head Coach: Rocky Long - 9th season2018 Record: 7-6Returning Starters: 12 - Offense: 7 QB - Defense: 5Offensive Coordinator: Jeff HortonDefensive Coordinator: Zach Arnett

42

2.75 / 0.75

35.04 (#94 OF 130)

8/31/19 WEBER ST9/7/19 at UCLA FAVORITES are 7-0 SU & 6-0 ATS in L7 games of UCLA-SDS series9/14/19 at New Mexico St9/21/19 UTAH ST SAN DIEGO ST is 3-0 SU & ATS in its L3 games vs. UTAH ST10/5/19 at Colorado St ROAD TEAMS are 15-6 SU & ATS in CSU-SDS series since 199310/12/19 WYOMING HOME TEAMS are 13-9 SU & 14-6 ATS in SDS-WYO series since 199310/19/19 at San Jose St SAN DIEGO ST is 6-0 SU & 5-1 ATS in its L6 games vs. SAN JOSE ST10/26/19 at UNLV SAN DIEGO ST is 13-4 SU & 12-5 ATS vs. UNLV since 200211/9/19 NEVADA HOME TEAMS are 6-1 SU & ATS in L7 games of NEV-SDS series11/16/19 FRESNO ST UNDER the total is 6-0 in L6 games of SDS-FRS series11/23/19 at Hawaii SAN DIEGO ST is 13-3 SU & 12-3 ATS vs. HAWAII since 199211/30/19 BYU BYU is 13-2 SU & 11-4 ATS vs. SAN DIEGO ST since 1995

8/31/18 at Stanford 10-31 L 14.5 L 48.5 U9/8/18 SACRAMENTO ST 28-14 W -25 L 58.5 U9/15/18 ARIZONA ST 28-21 W 5.5 W 48 O9/22/18 E MICHIGAN 23-20 W -10.5 L 48.5 U10/6/18 at Boise St 19-13 W 13 W 50.5 U10/12/18 AIR FORCE 21-17 W -11 L 42.5 U10/20/18 SAN JOSE ST 16-13 W -25 L 46 U10/27/18 at Nevada 24-28 L -2 L 46.5 O11/3/18 at New Mexico 31-23 W -12.5 L 45.5 O11/10/18 UNLV 24-27 L -24 L 51.5 U11/17/18 at Fresno St 14-23 L 10 W 42 U11/24/18 HAWAII 30-31 L -19 L 53.5 O12/19/18 vs. Ohio U 0-27 L 2 L 47.5 U

Health was a huge issue for the Aztecs a season ago, as they lost. both their starting quarterback and running back in 2018. Juwan Washington is a dynamic talent at running back, and returns to the backfield for this season after rushing for 999 yards over eight starts. San Diego State loses Christian Chapman at quarterback, but the argument can, and has been made, that Ryan Agnew is an upgrade. Agnew started seven games last season, in place of Chapman, completing just over 50 percent of his passes and throwing 10 touchdowns. He is more mobile, and a better passer which means a passing attack that has been anemic the last two years should have more production. The backend of this defense is in much better shape than the front, with two starting safeties and six of seven defensive backs returning. The linebackers get their top tackler back, but lose

two starters, and only one starting member is back on the defensive line. This should be a much better year for the Aztecs than a season ago, which still ended with seven wins and a bowl bid. San Diego State does not face Boise State, and they get both Utah State and Fresno State at home. The Aztecs could roll through conference play on their way to surpassing their win total.

OVER 8FANDUEL




TOP TRENDS FOR 2019







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SAN DIEGO STAZTECS

Points Per Game 20 116Yards Per Point 17.1 115Plays Per Game 65.7 121Time of Possession 29:49 683rd Down Conv. % 33.5% 111Total Yards Per Game 342.2 112Yards Per Play 5.2 88Rush Attempts Per Game 39.5 57Rush Yards Per Game 162 71Yards Per Rush Attempt 4.1 82Pass Attempts Per Game 23.7 117Completion % 52.5% 114Passing Yards Per Game 180.2 103Yards Per Pass Attempt 7.6 47Turnovers 1.3 48

Points Per Game 22.8 31Yards Per Point 15 493rd Down Conv. % 42.0% 92Total Yards Per Game 343 23Yards Per Play 5 34Rush Yards Per Game 108 9Yards Per Rush Attempt 3.1 7Completion % 60.4% 71Passing Yards Per Game 235 70Yards Per Pass Attempt 7.4 69Sacks 1.9 81Turnovers 1.2 94


2018 41 7.7 1.25 -2.3 7-QB 25.5 5.91 14.85 7 17.8 4.66 17.292017 43 17.8 1.77 1.6 5 31.9 6.57 13.65 6-DC 14.1 4.79 20.062016 49.5 17.1 1.85 -8 7-QB 34.6 6.63 12.4 7 17.5 4.79 17.852015 46.5 15.7 1.14 -3 6-QB, OC 31.8 5.77 12.04 8 16.1 4.63 17.69

• SAN DIEGO ST is 7-1 ATS (L8G) on ROAD - After a close SU loss 3 points or less

• SAN DIEGO ST is 2-12-1 ATS (L15G) at HOME - Nonconference VS NON-POWER 5

• SAN DIEGO ST is 9-0-1 UNDER (L10G) at HOME - Favorite of more than 20 points





SCHEDULE STRENGTH

2019 SCHEDULE




NEVADAWOLFPACKLocation: Reno, NV Stadium: Mackay Stadium Head Coach: Jay Norvell - 3rd season2018 Record: 8-5Returning Starters: 11 - Offense: 6 - Defense: 5Offensive Coordinator: Matt MummeDefensive Coordinator: Jeff Casteel

36

3.5 / 0.25

35.52 (#91 OF 130)

8/30/19 PURDUE9/7/19 at Oregon9/14/19 WEBER ST9/21/19 at Utep ROAD TEAMS are 1-2 SU but 3-0 ATS in L3 games of UTEP-NEV series9/28/19 HAWAII UNDER the total is 6-0 in L6 games of NEV-HAW series10/12/19 SAN JOSE ST HOME TEAMS are 3-2 SU & 5-0 ATS in L5 games of SJS-NEV series10/19/19 at Utah St UNDERDOGS are 2-3 SU but 5-0 ATS in L5 games of UTS-NEV series10/26/19 at Wyoming WYOMING is 2-1 SU & 3-0 ATS in its L3 games vs. NEVADA11/2/19 NEW MEXICO UNDER the total is 4-1 in L5 games of NM-NEV series11/9/19 at San Diego St HOME TEAMS are 6-1 SU & ATS in L7 games of NEV-SDS series11/23/19 at Fresno St ROAD TEAMS are 11-10 SU & 15-6 ATS in NEV-FRS series since 199811/30/19 UNLV HOME TEAMS are 11-10 SU & 14-7 ATS in UNLV-NEV series since 1998

8/31/18 PORTLAND ST 72-19 W -28 W 71 O9/8/18 at Vanderbilt 10-41 L 10 L 60 U9/15/18 OREGON ST 37-35 W -4 L 67 O9/22/18 at Toledo 44-63 L 11 L 67.5 O9/29/18 at Air Force 28-25 W 4 W 62.5 U10/6/18 FRESNO ST 3-21 L 16.5 L 59 U10/13/18 BOISE ST 27-31 L 14 W 58 T10/20/18 at Hawaii 40-22 W 1.5 W 66.5 U10/27/18 SAN DIEGO ST 28-24 W 2 W 46.5 O11/10/18 COLORADO ST 49-10 W -14 W 62 U11/17/18 at San Jose St 21-12 W -14.5 L 58.5 U11/24/18 at UNLV 29-34 L -14 L 61 O12/29/18 vs. Arkansas St 16-13 W -1 W 57 U

Yet another team in the Mountain West that must replace a long-time starter at quarterback, Reno moves on from Ty Gangi, their fifth ranked passer in program history. The position is not devoid of talent though, as former Florida State quarterback Malik Henry is now a member of the Wolfpack, and the two primary backups from last season return. Regardless, the quarterback gets a backfield littered with talent because all five of the team’s primary rushers are back. In fact, the skill positions are in great shape with just McLane Mannix counted as the lone loss at wide receiver. The biggest question on defense is the backend, which loses two starting safeties and a cornerback from a season ago. The schedule presents quite a few speed bumps on the road to a second consecutive winning record under Jay Norvell. Nevada will likely start the season 0-2 straight up with games against Purdue and at Oregon. The Wolfpack will

travel to Utah State, San Diego State and Fresno State as well in conference play. Those are three defenses that bring back quite a bit of production, and Nevada will need to win at least one of those games to push for seven wins. They also get three opponents who will be coming off of a bye week into their meeting with the Wolfpack. Play the under, as Nevada takes a step back in 2019.

UNDER 6.5FANDUEL




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NEVADAWOLFPACK

Points Per Game 27.7 66Yards Per Point 15 76Plays Per Game 73.3 54Time of Possession 29:38 713rd Down Conv. % 31.8% 122Total Yards Per Game 413.9 50Yards Per Play 5.6 58Rush Attempts Per Game 33.2 115Rush Yards Per Game 146.9 90Yards Per Rush Attempt 4.4 56Pass Attempts Per Game 38.8 13Completion % 59.6% 59Passing Yards Per Game 267 25Yards Per Pass Attempt 6.9 90Turnovers 2.2 123



2018 40.5 10.8 1.66 2 7-QB 34.1 6.61 13.79 7 23.4 4.95 15.272017 Yes 32.5 2.2 0.69 10.5 5- OC 30.5 6.37 14.17 9-DC 28.2 5.68 15.472016 30 -1.6 -0.89 17.8 10- OC 24.5 5.63 15.89 5 26.1 6.51 17.162015 32.5 1.4 0.02 10.2 6-QB 26.6 5.56 14.54 5 25.1 5.55 15.35

• NEVADA is 8-2 ATS (L10G) at HOME - On Friday

• NEVADA is 2-13 ATS (L15G) - [vs OPP] After a blowout SU win of 20 points or more

• NEVADA is 8-1 UNDER (L9G) at HOME - VS UNLV





SCHEDULE STRENGTH

2019 SCHEDULE




HAWAIIRAINBOW WARRIORSLocation: Honolulu, HI Stadium: Aloha Stadium Head Coach: Nick Rolovich - 4th season2018 Record: 8-6Returning Starters: 18 - Offense: 9 QB - Defense: 9Offensive Coordinator: Brian SmithDefensive Coordinator: Corey Batoon

35

2.25 / -0.75

37.77 (#75 OF 130)

8/24/19 ARIZONA9/7/19 OREGON ST UNDERDOGS are 2-3 SU but 4-1 ATS in L5 games of HAW-ORS series9/14/19 at Washington HOME TEAMS are 1-2 SU but 3-0 ATS in L3 games of HAW-WAS series9/21/19 C ARKANSAS9/28/19 at Nevada UNDER the total is 6-0 in L6 games of NEV-HAW series10/12/19 at Boise St FAVORITES are 5-0 SU & ATS in L5 games of BSU-HAW series10/19/19 AIR FORCE HAWAII is 2-4 SU but 5-1 ATS in its L6 games vs. AIR FORCE10/26/19 at New Mexico ROAD TEAMS are 4-1 SU & 5-0 ATS in L5 games of HAW-NM series11/2/19 FRESNO ST UNDERDOGS are 10-15 SU but 15-10 ATS in FRS-HAW series since 199411/9/19 SAN JOSE ST SAN JOSE ST is 8-14 SU but 14-8 ATS vs. HAWAII since 199611/16/19 at UNLV OVER the total is 8-2 in UNLV-HAW series since 200911/23/19 SAN DIEGO ST SAN DIEGO ST is 13-3 SU & 12-3 ATS vs. HAWAII since 199211/30/19 ARMY HOME TEAMS are 3-0 SU & ATS in L3 games of ARM-HAW series

8/25/18 at Colorado St 43-34 W 17 W 57.5 O9/1/18 NAVY 59-41 W 14 W 62.5 O9/8/18 RICE 43-29 W -17 L 70 O9/15/18 at Army 21-28 L 6.5 L 62 U9/22/18 DUQUESNE 42-21 W -39 L 69.5 U9/29/18 at San Jose St 44-41 W -9 L 64 O10/6/18 WYOMING 17-13 W 3 W 51.5 U10/13/18 at BYU 23-49 L 10.5 L 57 O10/20/18 NEVADA 22-40 L -1.5 L 66.5 U10/27/18 at Fresno St 20-50 L 23.5 L 59.5 O11/3/18 UTAH ST 17-56 L 17.5 L 73 T11/17/18 UNLV 35-28 W -6.5 W 72.5 U11/24/18 at San Diego St 31-30 W 19 W 53.5 O12/22/18 LOUISIANA TECH 14-31 L 1 L 61 U

It seemed all was lost for Hawaii a season ago. An exodus of talent at multiple positions left them with just eight returning starters and questions at key positions like quarterback. However, head coach Nick Rolovich did a tremendous job and led the Rainbow Warriors to eight wins and a bowl bid. This season, Hawaii is packed with returning experience, getting 18 starters back from last year’s team. Breakout quarterback Cole McDonald leads the offense yet again, and this team should likely improve on its 30.8 points and 420 yards per game from last season. McDonald has two All-Conference receivers to throw to as well, in Jojo Ward and Cedric Byrd, giving Hawaii arguably the most dynamic receiving corps in the Mountain West. The defense is deep as well, despite the loss of a starting defensive lineman, and a second-round draft choice at linebacker. The only thing that will limit the Rainbow Warriors is a schedule that is very daunting. Hawaii opens

up on a tour of the Pac-12, with home games against Arizona and Oregon State before making a trip to the Pacific Northwest to meet Washington. They draw all of the conference contenders in Boise State, Air Force, Fresno State and San Diego State, but only have to make the trip to Boise. The lean with Hawaii is to the Over, as they do have a tough schedule, but they get eight home games to get there.

OVER 5.5FANDUEL




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HAWAIIRAINBOW WARRIORS




2018 32.5 3.6 0.82 9.8 4 36.3 6.72 12.79 5 32.7 5.91 12.622017 24.5 -5.4 -0.31 12.3 8- OC 24.5 6.08 17.43 6-DC 29.9 6.39 14.52016 Yes 29 -3.6 0.45 11.5 9- OC 28.1 6.34 14.62 6-DC 31.8 5.9 13.432015 17.5 -11.7 -0.08 19.3 8- OC 21.2 5.17 15.83 6-DC 32.9 5.25 12.88

• HAWAII is 7-0 ATS (L7G) - First game of the season

• HAWAII is 3-19 ATS (L5Y) - After a conference SU loss

• HAWAII is 22-6 OVER (L28G) at HOME - Nonconference VS NON-POWER 5





SCHEDULE STRENGTH

2019 SCHEDULE




UNLVREBELSLocation: Las Vegas, NV Stadium: Sam Boyd Stadium Head Coach: Tony Sanchez - 5th season2018 Record: 4-8Returning Starters: 13 - Offense: 8 QB - Defense: 5Offensive Coordinator: Barney CottonDefensive Coordinator: Tim Skipper

31.5

2.25 / 0.5

36.5 (#80 OF 130)

8/31/19 S UTAH9/7/19 ARKANSAS ST9/14/19 at Northwestern9/28/19 at Wyoming OVER the total is 6-0 in L6 games of UNLV-WYO series at WYOMING10/5/19 BOISE ST ROAD TEAMS are 1-3 SU but 4-0 ATS in L4 games of BSU-UNLV series10/12/19 at Vanderbilt10/19/19 at Fresno St ROAD TEAMS are 3-0 SU & ATS in L3 games of FRS-UNLV series10/26/19 SAN DIEGO ST SAN DIEGO ST is 13-4 SU & 12-5 ATS vs. UNLV since 200211/2/19 at Colorado St COLORADO ST is 6-0 SU & ATS in its L6 games hosting UNLV11/16/19 HAWAII OVER the total is 8-2 in UNLV-HAW series since 200911/23/19 SAN JOSE ST HOME TEAMS are 5-1 SU & ATS in L6 games of UNLV-SJS series11/30/19 at Nevada HOME TEAMS are 11-10 SU & 14-7 ATS in UNLV-NEV series since 1998

9/1/18 at USC 21-43 L 24.5 W 60 O9/8/18 UTEP 52-24 W -22.5 W 54 O9/15/18 PRAIRIE VIEW 46-17 W -31.5 L 67 U9/22/18 at Arkansas St 20-27 L 7.5 W 66 U10/6/18 NEW MEXICO 14-50 L -9 L 63 O10/13/18 at Utah St 28-59 L 27 L 65 O10/19/18 AIR FORCE 35-41 L 9.5 W 54.5 O10/27/18 at San Jose St 37-50 L -1 L 56.5 O11/3/18 FRESNO ST 3-48 L 27 L 59.5 U11/10/18 at San Diego St 27-24 W 24 W 51.5 U11/17/18 at Hawaii 28-35 L 6.5 L 72.5 U11/24/18 NEVADA 34-29 W 14 W 61 O

The potential of UNLV begins and ends with the health of quarterback Armani Rogers. In five starts last season Rogers totaled 1,100 yards both passing and rushing, threw 10 touchdowns and led the Rebels to a victory over in-state rival Nevada. However, he’s made just 14 starts over his two seasons at quarterback, so counting on Rogers to start every game is not something bettors can count on. Rogers will have a bounty of weapons to work with, should he remain healthy, as the top six pass-catchers return for UNLV. The backfield takes a huge blow with the departure of Lexington Thomas, but Tony Sanchez landed his former running back at Gorman and Cal transfer Biaggio Ali-Walsh. It’s par for the course to say this UNLV offense should be effective. The question every year is, can this defense finally stop a nosebleed? The defense is coming off of its worst season under Sanchez, as they allowed 37.3 points and 454 yards per contest.

The Rebels have added a large amount of JUCOs to fill out the depth this season, but until they show they can perform defensively it is wise to expect another subpar effort. With that, it is hard to see a five-win season for the Rebels. Boise State, Fresno State and San Diego State are all on the schedule, as are road trips to meet Northwestern and Vanderbilt. It is under, or pass, with UNLV this season.

UNDER 4FANDUEL




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UNLVREBELS




2018 30.5 -2.4 -0.61 15.6 7-QB 31.4 5.58 13.21 7-DC 33.8 6.18 12.812017 30.5 1.1 0.4 11.3 9 30.4 6.44 14.46 3 29.3 6.04 15.052016 25.5 -2.1 0.42 8 6-QB 32.7 6.13 12.72 8 34.9 5.71 122015 Yes 25 1.3 0.08 13.7 5- OC 31.3 5.96 13.72 5-DC 30 5.88 14.4

• UNLV is 11-4 ATS (L5Y) on ROAD - Underdog of more than 7 points

• UNLV is 0-7 ATS (L7G) on ROAD - Favorite of 7 or less points

• UNLV is 8-0 OVER (L8G) at HOME - After a close SU loss 3 points or less





SCHEDULE STRENGTH

2019 SCHEDULE




SAN JOSE STSPARTANSLocation: San Jose, CA Stadium: CEFCU Stadium Head Coach: Brent Brennan - 3rd season2018 Record: 1-11Returning Starters: 13 - Offense: 7 QB - Defense: 6Offensive Coordinator: Kevin McGivenDefensive Coordinator: Derrick Odum

25

2.75 / -0.75

36.46 (#81 OF 130)

8/29/19 N COLORADO9/7/19 TULSA HOME TEAMS are 5-2 SU & ATS in L7 games of SJS-TLS series9/21/19 at Arkansas9/28/19 at Air Force HOME TEAMS are 4-0 ATS in L4 games of AF-SJS series10/5/19 NEW MEXICO SAN JOSE ST is 3-1 SU & 4-0 ATS in its L4 games vs. NEW MEXICO10/12/19 at Nevada HOME TEAMS are 3-2 SU & 5-0 ATS in L5 games of SJS-NEV series10/19/19 SAN DIEGO ST SAN DIEGO ST is 6-0 SU & 5-1 ATS in its L6 games vs. SAN JOSE ST10/26/19 at Army11/2/19 BOISE ST FAVORITES are 6-0 SU & 5-1 ATS in L6 games of BSU-SJS series11/9/19 at Hawaii SAN JOSE ST is 8-14 SU but 14-8 ATS vs. HAWAII since 199611/23/19 at UNLV HOME TEAMS are 5-1 SU & ATS in L6 games of UNLV-SJS series11/30/19 FRESNO ST HOME TEAMS are 13-8 SU & 12-8 ATS in SJS-FRS series since 1997

8/30/18 CAL DAVIS 38-44 L -3 L 69 O9/8/18 at Washington St 0-31 L 30.5 L 63.5 U9/15/18 at Oregon 22-35 L 41.5 W 68.5 U9/29/18 HAWAII 41-44 L 9 W 64 O10/6/18 COLORADO ST 30-42 L 3 L 60 O10/13/18 vs. Army 3-52 L 17.5 L 50.5 O10/20/18 at San Diego St 13-16 L 25 W 46 U10/27/18 UNLV 50-37 W 1 W 56.5 O11/3/18 at Wyoming 9-24 L 17.5 W 39.5 U11/10/18 at Utah St 24-62 L 31 L 62.5 O11/17/18 NEVADA 12-21 L 14.5 W 58.5 U11/24/18 at Fresno St 13-31 L 31.5 W 52 U

Brent Brennan’s third season at San Jose should bring some positive changes, although it could be argued anything is positive after a 1-11 campaign in 2018. The Spartans seem to have their quarterback in Josh Love. This will be Love’s third season in the system, and he’s shown improvement each year. Last season, in just eight starts, he threw for nearly 2,000 yards with a 14 touchdown to nine interception ratio. He also gets three of his top four rushers from last season back, including San Jose’s leader Tyler Nevens. While the wide receivers lose three of the top five, top wideout Tre Walker is back to give Love a reliable target he’s worked with for years. The linebacking corps for San Jose could really impress once the season begins, as five have starting experience, and they return their top two at the position. The secondary will get its starting safeties back as well, which could mean an improvement on the 13.5 yards per pass allowed by

the Spartans last season. This should be a look to the over for bettors on San Jose State. Contests against Northern Colorado and New Mexico at home will be rare spots in which the Spartans should be favored. That gives them 10 other opportunities to steal just one more game to surpass the win total posted. If San Jose improves as they should, then even four wins is something that is more than possible.

OVER 2.5FANDUEL




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SAN JOSE STSPARTANS

Points Per Game 19.7 117Yards Per Point 15.5 86Plays Per Game 68.3 97Time of Possession 26:21 1263rd Down Conv. % 32.1% 121Total Yards Per Game 305.7 125Yards Per Play 4.5 125Rush Attempts Per Game 28.9 129Rush Yards Per Game 54.3 130Yards Per Rush Attempt 1.9 130Pass Attempts Per Game 36.1 28Completion % 57.9% 80Passing Yards Per Game 251.5 42Yards Per Pass Attempt 7 87Turnovers 1.5 60



2018 27 -2.3 -0.08 17.1 8-QB, OC 26.8 5.47 13.72 6 29.1 5.55 15.22017 Yes 15.5 -18.4 -0.77 26 7-QB, OC 20.1 4.99 17.13 8-DC 38.5 5.76 12.042016 26.5 -2.6 -0.32 17.8 8 25.9 5.73 15.69 7-DC 28.5 6.06 14.252015 33.5 5.7 0.82 7 10- OC 30.8 6.19 14.19 6 25.1 5.37 13.95

• SAN JOSE ST is 8-2 ATS (L10G) at HOME - Nonconference VS NON-POWER 5

• SAN JOSE ST is 10-23-1 ATS (S2000) on ROAD - More than 6 days rest

• SAN JOSE ST is 8-2 UNDER (L10G) - Revenging a loss vs - NEVADA



PAC-12CONFERENCE PREVIEW


NORTH DIVISIONWASHINGTON 56.5 4 0.75 45.31 39 9.3 2.7 6.7 2.3OREGON 56 2.75 -0.5 45.46 36 8.6 3.4 6.3 2.7STANFORD 51.5 3.5 0.25 48.38 8 7.0 5.0 5.4 3.6WASHINGTON ST 52 4 0 42.33 59 7.9 4.1 5.1 3.9CALIFORNIA 46 3.75 -0.5 47.63 16 5.4 6.6 3.4 5.6OREGON ST 35 2.75 -0.75 47.96 14 2.4 9.6 1.0 8.0

SOUTH DIVISIONUTAH 56 3 0.75 43.56 51 9.2 2.8 6.6 2.4USC 51 3.25 -0.5 50.50 2 6.2 5.8 4.7 4.3ARIZONA ST 48.5 3.25 -0.5 43.10 54 6.9 5.1 4.7 4.3UCLA 49 2 -0.75 49.48 4 5.8 6.2 4.4 4.6ARIZONA 46.5 3 -1 46.10 30 5.7 6.3 3.4 5.6COLORADO 43 3.25 0 48.13 11 4.4 7.6 2.4 6.6



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GAMENORTH DIVISION CHAMPION WASH WASH WASH WASH WASH WASH WASH WASH

SOUTH DIVISION CHAMPION

ARIZONAST UTAH USC UTAH UTAH UCLA UTAH UTAH

PAC-12 CHAMPIONSHIP WASH WASH WASH UTAH UTAH WASH WASH WASH



Washington and UtahElite coaches and star quarterbacks will be the primary themes for the Pac-12 this season, and only Washington checks both boxes. Chris Petersen is king of the coaching hill after winning two of the past three conference title games. The Huskies have lost a lot of talent to the NFL in recent years, but have no fear because Petersen is here to reload. His best recruiting move was convincing 6-foot-6 quarterback Jacob Eason to transfer home after getting benched at Georgia. Eason was a five-star recruit out of high school and Petersen will put him back on track to be a first-round draft pick. The schedule sets up favorably for the Huskies, who host USC, Oregon, Utah and Washington State. Bet on Washington winning at least 10 games. The best QB in the conference for now is Ducks senior Justin Herbert, who can make a strong case to be the NFL’s No. 1 pick. Oregon might have a more talented team on paper, but coach Mario Cristobal remains a big-game question mark. Cristobal needs to prove he can do it at this level; Petersen has proven it for a long time. While Washington gets the nod in the North, Utah is the obvious pick in the South. Kyle Whittingham can win big without an NFL prospect at quarterback. The Utes, who return senior dual-threat QB Tyler Huntley, appear headed for another nine-win season and a second straight trip to the league championship game. Believe it or not, the Pac-12 is coming back. The league hit rock bottom with a 1-8 bowl record after the 2017 season. A 3-4 bowl mark after last season was nothing to brag about, but this league is getting better top to bottom.

UCLA and ColoradoChip Kelly’s first year in Westwood was a train wreck until a surge in November. The Bruins figured to peak in the second half of the season. UCLA’s offense averaged only 17 points in the first four games and 31.3 points per game in the final four. Kelly has a promising young QB, sophomore Dorian Thompson-Robinson, and punishing running back Joshua Kelley to lead his offense. The Bruins could spring an early upset or two (or cash point-spread covers) against Cincinnati, Oklahoma and Washington State. Colorado is everyone’s pick for the South basement, but new coach Mel Tucker will put a more competitive team on the field than most expect. The Buffaloes will unveil an up-tempo offense with senior QB Steven Montez and big-time wideout Laviska Shenault. Opponents visiting Boulder should be on upset alert.

Oregon StateIt will be tough for the beleaguered Beavers to top last year’s 2-10 finish. Oregon State will be favored only once all season, against Cal Poly on Sept. 14. The Beavers did pull off a stunner last year, when they beat Colorado as 25-point road ‘dogs.

2019 PAC-12 CONFERENCE PREVIEW

THE FAVORITES

LIVE DOGS

DEAD MONEY

BIG GAMES ON THE BOARDOregon vs. Auburn, Aug. 31The Tigers are 3-point favorites in Arlington, Texas, and the Ducks could make a major statement by beating one of the SEC’s top teams. It’s also a chance for Justin Herbert to launch his Heisman campaign.

Oklahoma at UCLA, Sept. 14How far has Chip Kelly come in a year? This rematch is a measuring stick for the Bruins, who were whipped 49-21 last year in Norman. But that Sooners team was led by Kyler Murray, and Kelly was just getting started.

Utah at USC, Sept. 20The South’s top two teams collide on a Friday night in L.A. The home team has won six straight in this series. For the Trojans, this

game is sandwiched between road trips to BYU and Washington.

USC at Notre Dame, Oct. 12After a bye, the Trojans will hunt for revenge against the Irish, who won the past two meetings by scores of 24-17 and 49-14.

Oregon at Washington, Oct. 19A high-stakes game with North title implications.

UCLA at Utah, Nov. 16If Kelly’s rebuilding process is on the fast track, the Bruins could arrive in Salt Lake City as live ‘dogs and as the surprise team of the conference.




SCHEDULE STRENGTH

2019 SCHEDULE




2019 PAC-12 CONFERENCE NORTH DIVISION

WASHINGTONHUSKIESLocation: Seattle, WA Stadium: Alaska Airlines Field at Husky Stadium Head Coach: Chris Petersen - 6th season2018 Record: 10-4Returning Starters: 9 - Offense: 7 - Defense: 2Offensive Coordinator: Bush HamdanDefensive Coordinator: Pete Kwiatkowski / Jimmy Lake

56.5

4 / 0.75

45.31 (#39 OF 130)

8/31/19 E WASHINGTON9/7/19 CALIFORNIA UNDER the total is 5-0 in L5 games of WAS-CAL series at WASHINGTON9/14/19 HAWAII HOME TEAMS are 1-2 SU but 3-0 ATS in L3 games of HAW-WAS series9/21/19 at BYU HOME TEAMS are 5-1 SU & 5-0 ATS in L6 games of BYU-WAS series9/28/19 USC UNDERDOGS are 4-6 SU but 8-2 ATS in WAS-USC series since 200510/5/19 at Stanford OVER the total is 12-8 in WAS-STA series since 199210/12/19 at Arizona HOME TEAMS are 8-2 SU & 9-1 ATS in WAS-ARI series since 200710/19/19 OREGON FAVORITES are 14-2 SU & 13-3 ATS in WAS-ORE series since 200311/2/19 UTAH UNDERDOGS are 3-4 SU but 5-2 ATS in L7 games of WAS-UTA series11/8/19 at Oregon St ROAD TEAMS are 2-3 SU but 5-0 ATS in L5 games of ORS-WAS series11/23/19 at Colorado WASHINGTON is 9-1 SU & 8-2 ATS vs. COLORADO since 199611/29/19 WASHINGTON ST WASHINGTON is 5-0 SU & ATS in its L5 games vs. WASHINGTON ST

9/1/18 vs. Auburn 16-21 L 1.5 L 50.5 U9/8/18 N DAKOTA 45-3 W -45.5 L 57 U9/15/18 at Utah 21-7 W -4 W 45.5 U9/22/18 ARIZONA ST 27-20 W -18 L 54 U9/29/18 BYU 35-7 W -18.5 W 47.5 U10/6/18 at UCLA 31-24 W -21.5 L 53.5 O10/13/18 at Oregon 27-30 L -3.5 L 58.5 U10/20/18 COLORADO 27-13 W -18.5 L 49.5 U10/27/18 at California 10-12 L -11.5 L 45.5 U11/3/18 STANFORD 27-23 W -8.5 L 44 O11/17/18 OREGON ST 42-23 W -32 L 58.5 O11/23/18 at Washington St 28-15 W 3 W 50 U11/30/18 vs. Utah 10-3 W -4 W 45.5 U1/1/19 vs. Ohio St 23-28 L 4.5 L 54.5 U

Jacob Eason, once targeted to be Georgia’s quarterback of the future, is turning back the clock. A five-star recruit from Lake Stevens, Wash., Eason has come home to star for the Huskies. He transferred after two years at Georgia, where he lost the starting job to Jake Fromm. The 6-foot-6 Eason’s right arm is a rifle and he throws with accuracy on the run. The Huskies’ top three wideouts — Aaron Fuller, Andre Baccellia and Ty Jones — return along with top tight end Hunter Bryant. There is depth at running back and experience on the offensive line, so Washington’s firepower should increase even after the departure of QB Jake Browning. Cynics will cite only two returning starters on defense, but coach Chris Petersen pulled in another stellar recruiting class highlighted by stud defensive linemen. The offense could be great, the defense

will mature and the schedule breaks just right for the Huskies. The other Pac-12 powers — USC, Oregon, Utah and Washington State — pay visits to Seattle. Washington might go off as the favorite in all 12 games. The Huskies won nine, 10 and 11 regular-season games the past three years. Bet on the Pac-12’s best coach winning 10 or more.

OVER 9CAESARS



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WASHINGTONHUSKIES




2018 58.5 27.2 3.11 -16.5 8-QB, OC 35.8 7.14 13.47 9 8.6 4.03 30.52017 62.5 36.1 3.75 -21.4 7 41.9 7.44 11.32 6 5.9 3.68 41.682016 65 41.7 4.12 -24.2 8 49.1 8.16 11.12 7 7.4 4.04 37.922015 54.5 27.8 2.62 -8.5 5-QB 34.9 6.87 13.05 4 7.1 4.24 42.97

• WASHINGTON is 7-1 ATS (L8G) - VS COLORADO

• WASHINGTON is 0-10 ATS (L10G) - After playing USC

• WASHINGTON is 9-1 OVER (L10G) on ROAD - After playing STANFORD





SCHEDULE STRENGTH

2019 SCHEDULE




OREGONDUCKSLocation: Eugene, OR Stadium: Autzen Stadium Head Coach: Mario Cristobal - 2nd season2018 Record: 9-4Returning Starters: 17 - Offense: 10 QB - Defense: 7Offensive Coordinator: Marcus ArroyoDefensive Coordinator: Andy Avalos / Keith Heyward *

56

2.75 / -0.5

45.46 (#36 OF 130)

8/31/19 vs. Auburn9/7/19 NEVADA9/14/19 MONTANA9/21/19 at Stanford OVER the total is 14-6 in ORE-STA series since 199310/5/19 CALIFORNIA OREGON is 5-0 SU & ATS in its L5 games hosting CALIFORNIA10/11/19 COLORADO OREGON is 6-1 SU & ATS in its L7 games vs. COLORADO10/19/19 at Washington FAVORITES are 14-2 SU & 13-3 ATS in WAS-ORE series since 200310/26/19 WASHINGTON ST WASHINGTON ST is 4-5 SU but 9-0 ATS in its L9 games vs. OREGON11/2/19 at USC FAVORITES are 9-2 SU & ATS in USC-ORE series since 200211/16/19 ARIZONA UNDER the total is 6-0 in L6 games of ORE-ARI series11/23/19 at Arizona St OREGON is 11-1 SU & 8-3 ATS vs. ARIZONA ST since 200511/30/19 OREGON ST OVER the total is 7-0 in L7 games of ORE-ORS series at OREGON

9/1/18 BOWLING GREEN 58-24 W -33.5 W 69.5 O9/8/18 PORTLAND ST 62-14 W -49 L 81 U9/15/18 SAN JOSE ST 35-22 W -41.5 L 68.5 U9/22/18 STANFORD 31-38 L 3 L 59 O9/29/18 at California 42-24 W -2.5 W 57.5 O10/13/18 WASHINGTON 30-27 W 3.5 W 58.5 U10/20/18 at Washington St 20-34 L 3 L 69.5 U10/27/18 at Arizona 15-44 L -8.5 L 66 U11/3/18 UCLA 42-21 W -10.5 W 59 O11/10/18 at Utah 25-32 L 6 L 50.5 O11/17/18 ARIZONA ST 31-29 W -3.5 L 66 U11/23/18 at Oregon St 55-15 W -18 W 71 U12/31/18 vs. Michigan St 7-6 W 1.5 W 47.5 U

It’s tempting to pick the Ducks, who return 17 starters and reeled in the league’s top-ranked recruiting class, to win the Pac-12. However, the crystal ball gets cloudy when looking at coach Mario Cristobal, whose team faces a rough conference road schedule. The Ducks travel to play Stanford, Washington, USC and Arizona State, and that’s after opening the season away from home against Auburn. Cristobal’s track record of dubious game-management decisions is cause for concern. Still, the schedule does have some soft spots and the talent level is elite, so stay optimistic about Oregon. Senior quarterback Justin Herbert is a Heisman Trophy contender and potential No. 1 pick in the NFL Draft. The 6-foot-6 Herbert passed for 44 touchdowns with 13 interceptions the past two seasons, and Oregon’s

offense has scored 39.4 points per game in his 27 starts. Herbert is surrounded by skilled running backs and receivers and the Ducks’ offensive line is the most experienced in the nation with a combined 153 career starts. The defense returns seven starters and features a few big-time playmakers. The Ducks are loaded. It’s now or never for Cristobal.

OVER 8.5WESTGATE




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OREGONDUCKS


Points Per Game 26.3 53Yards Per Point 15.3 413rd Down Conv. % 37.4% 46Total Yards Per Game 402 67Yards Per Play 5.2 46Rush Yards Per Game 153.4 47Yards Per Rush Attempt 4 42Completion % 57.1% 41Passing Yards Per Game 248.6 91Yards Per Pass Attempt 6.8 41Sacks 2 76Turnovers 1.9 16


2018 Yes 52 22.4 1.93 -11.6 7-QB 43.2 6.78 11.61 7 20.8 4.85 16.892017 Yes 53.5 25.5 3.13 -10 8- OC 42.5 7.46 12.81 9-DC 17 4.33 18.182016 44 11.9 2.41 -6.5 6-QB, OC 42.3 7.92 13.9 5-DC 30.4 5.51 14.652015 57.5 22.9 3.19 -13.5 6-QB 48.7 8.47 13.19 6 25.8 5.28 16.22

• OREGON is 10-0 ATS (L10G) - Before playing USC

• OREGON is 0-7 ATS (L7G) - [vs OPP] Head coach - LEACH

• OREGON is 7-0 OVER (L7G) at HOME - After a close SU loss 3 points or less





SCHEDULE STRENGTH

2019 SCHEDULE




STANFORDCARDINALLocation: Stanford, CA Stadium: Stanford Stadium Head Coach: David Shaw - 9th season2018 Record: 9-4Returning Starters: 9 - Offense: 4 QB - Defense: 5Offensive Coordinator: Tavita PritchardDefensive Coordinator: Lance Anderson

51.5

3.5 / 0.25

48.38 (#8 OF 130)

8/31/19 NORTHWESTERN9/7/19 at USC OVER the total is 16-8 in USC-STA series since 19959/14/19 at Ucf9/21/19 OREGON OVER the total is 14-6 in ORE-STA series since 19939/28/19 at Oregon St FAVORITES are 17-3 SU & 13-7 ATS in ORS-STA series since 199810/5/19 WASHINGTON OVER the total is 12-8 in WAS-STA series since 199210/17/19 UCLA STANFORD is 6-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in its L6 games vs. UCLA10/26/19 ARIZONA FAVORITES are 6-0 SU & 5-1 ATS in L6 games of ARI-STA series11/9/19 at Colorado ROAD TEAMS are 4-0 SU & ATS in L4 games of COL-STA series11/16/19 at Washington St UNDER the total is 8-0 in L8 games of WASU-STA series at WASHINGTON ST11/23/19 CALIFORNIA ROAD TEAMS are 13-14 SU but 19-7 ATS in STA-CAL series since 199211/30/19 NOTRE DAME UNDERDOGS are 4-16 SU but 13-7 ATS in ND-STA series since 1999

8/31/18 SAN DIEGO ST 31-10 W -14.5 W 48.5 U9/8/18 USC 17-3 W -4.5 W 53 U9/15/18 CAL DAVIS 30-10 W -30 L 66.5 U9/22/18 at Oregon 38-31 W -3 W 59 O9/29/18 at Notre Dame 17-38 L 4.5 L 54.5 O10/6/18 UTAH 21-40 L -4 L 44.5 O10/18/18 at Arizona St 20-13 W -1.5 W 57.5 U10/27/18 WASHINGTON ST 38-41 L -2.5 L 55.5 O11/3/18 at Washington 23-27 L 8.5 W 44 O11/10/18 OREGON ST 48-17 W -25 W 61.5 O11/24/18 at UCLA 49-42 W -7 T 60.5 O12/1/18 at California 23-13 W -3 W 45.5 U12/31/18 vs. Pittsburgh 14-13 W -3.5 L 53 U

Supporters of David Shaw always point to his coaching record, and for good reason. Shaw has won 40 games in the past four years. But he’s too conservative with his offenses and does not get the most out of Stanford’s abundant talent. Now that the talent level has slipped, Shaw will really get tested. The Cardinal return only nine starters after losing most of their top players to the NFL. One bright spot will be junior quarterback K.J. Costello, who threw for 29 touchdowns and led the Pac-12 in passing efficiency last year. Costello will miss his two favorite targets, wideout JJ Arcega-Whiteside and tight end Kaden Smith. Injuries forced Bryce Love’s college career to fizzle at the end, and the Cardinal running attack suffered, but Cameron Scarlett and a talented stable of runners return. How good will Costello be

without Arcega-Whiteside and Smith? He should be OK. More concerns shadow what was a weak Stanford defense. The September schedule is brutal on paper, yet the Cardinal’s toughest games — Oregon, Washington and Notre Dame — are at home. Most signs point to Shaw’s team taking a step back to 7-5. He’s rarely an overachiever.

UNDER 7.5CAESARS




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STANFORDCARDINAL

Points Per Game 28.2 59Yards Per Point 13.6 46Plays Per Game 63.6 127Time of Possession 29:51 663rd Down Conv. % 41.0% 46Total Yards Per Game 383.5 76Yards Per Play 6 23Rush Attempts Per Game 29.2 127Rush Yards Per Game 105.5 120Yards Per Rush Attempt 3.6 109Pass Attempts Per Game 32.5 57Completion % 65.1% 17Passing Yards Per Game 278 22Yards Per Pass Attempt 8.6 15Turnovers 1.1 18



2018 52.5 24.3 2.65 -10.6 9-QB, OC 39.6 7.55 12.02 6 15.3 4.9 23.212017 58 28.9 2.91 -16 8 39.1 7.89 12.13 8 10.2 4.99 33.232016 54.5 25.6 2.57 -13.8 5-QB 34.1 7.12 13.34 6 8.5 4.56 36.562015 61 31.1 2.73 -18.3 9 43.9 7.66 11.73 4 12.8 4.94 25.42

• STANFORD is 10-0 ATS (L10G) - After a close SU loss 3 points or less

• STANFORD is 1-6 ATS (L7G) at HOME - Revenging a loss vs - NOTRE DAME

• STANFORD is 7-0 UNDER (L7G) on ROAD - After playing ARIZONA





SCHEDULE STRENGTH

2019 SCHEDULE




WASHINGTON STCOUGARSLocation: Pullman, WA Stadium: Martin Stadium Head Coach: Mike Leach - 8th season2018 Record: 11-2Returning Starters: 13 - Offense: 7 - Defense: 6Offensive Coordinator: Mike LeachDefensive Coordinator: Tracy Claeys

52

4 / 0

42.33 (#59 OF 130)

8/31/19 NEW MEXICO ST9/7/19 N COLORADO9/13/19 vs. Houston9/21/19 UCLA UNDERDOGS are 1-4 SU but 5-0 ATS in L5 games of WASU-UCLA series9/28/19 at Utah WASHINGTON ST is 5-2 SU & 6-1 ATS in its L7 games vs. UTAH10/12/19 at Arizona St HOME TEAMS are 10-6 SU & 13-3 ATS in AZS-WASU series since 200110/19/19 COLORADO FAVORITES are 4-0 SU & ATS in L4 games of WASU-COL series10/26/19 at Oregon WASHINGTON ST is 4-5 SU but 9-0 ATS in its L9 games vs. OREGON11/9/19 at California ROAD TEAMS are 7-9 SU but 12-4 ATS in CAL-WASU series since 200111/16/19 STANFORD UNDER the total is 8-0 in L8 games of WASU-STA series at WASHINGTON ST11/23/19 OREGON ST OVER the total is 6-0 in L6 games of WASU-ORS series11/29/19 at Washington WASHINGTON is 5-0 SU & ATS in its L5 games vs. WASHINGTON ST

9/1/18 at Wyoming 41-19 W -3 W 45 O9/8/18 SAN JOSE ST 31-0 W -30.5 W 63.5 U9/15/18 E WASHINGTON 59-24 W -20.5 W 64.5 O9/21/18 at USC 36-39 L 4.5 W 50.5 O9/29/18 UTAH 28-24 W 1 W 50.5 O10/6/18 at Oregon St 56-37 W -18.5 W 65 O10/20/18 OREGON 34-20 W -3 W 69.5 U10/27/18 at Stanford 41-38 W 2.5 W 55.5 O11/3/18 CALIFORNIA 19-13 W -7 L 51.5 U11/10/18 at Colorado 31-7 W -5 W 58.5 U11/17/18 ARIZONA 69-28 W -10.5 W 63 O11/23/18 WASHINGTON 15-28 L -3 L 50 U12/28/18 vs. Iowa St 28-26 W -2.5 L 56 U

Mike Leach turned preseason critics into fools in 2018, when he had only 10 returning starters and a major question mark at quarterback. Gardner Minshew had all the answers as he passed for 4,779 yards and 38 touchdowns en route to 11 wins. Minshew and his mustache are gone, replaced by another grad transfer, Gage Gubrud, who threw for 474 yards to lead Eastern Washington to a 45-42 upset of Washington State in 2016. The Cougars were 27-point favorites in that game. Gubrud, who was a freshman, passed for 9,984 yards at the FCS level. Leach’s prolific offense appears to be in good hands with seven starters back. Senior safety Jalen Thompson leads an above-average defense. Leach averaged nine regular-season wins the past three years. With conference road games against Utah,

Arizona State, Oregon, California and Washington, nine wins would seem unrealistic this year. Washington State is probably headed for a 7-5 or 8-4 finish, and while it was wrong to doubt Leach last year, try it one more time. Leach is a coach who tends to overachieve due to his offense, but the Minshew magic will be tough to duplicate.

UNDER 8WESTGATE




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WASHINGTON STCOUGARS

Points Per Game 35.8 16Yards Per Point 12.4 19Plays Per Game 73.8 50Time of Possession 32:17 223rd Down Conv. % 43.9% 25Total Yards Per Game 443.1 26Yards Per Play 6 25Rush Attempts Per Game 21.9 130Rush Yards Per Game 82.1 129Yards Per Rush Attempt 3.7 100Pass Attempts Per Game 51 1Completion % 69.8% 2Passing Yards Per Game 361 2Yards Per Pass Attempt 7.1 84Turnovers 1.2 38



2018 56 29.3 2.36 -13.4 4 46.6 7.13 11.36 6-DC 17.3 4.77 17.672017 48.5 23 2.28 -12.4 7 37.1 6.62 14.25 9 14.1 4.34 19.292016 53.5 29.9 2.08 -11 8 45.5 7.42 12.95 6 15.5 5.33 23.242015 46.5 18.8 1.87 -6.8 8-QB 37 6.96 14.96 6-DC 18.2 5.09 20.45

• WASHINGTON ST is 7-0 ATS (L7G) on ROAD - After playing a game that went into overtime

• WASHINGTON ST is 1-12 ATS (L13G) at NEUT - [vs OPP] Non-ranked team

• WASHINGTON ST is 20-2 OVER (L22G) on ROAD - Underdog of 7 or less points





SCHEDULE STRENGTH

2019 SCHEDULE




CALIFORNIAGOLDEN BEARSLocation: Berkeley, CA Stadium: California Memorial Stadium Head Coach: Justin Wilcox - 3rd season2018 Record: 7-6Returning Starters: 11 - Offense: 4 QB - Defense: 7Offensive Coordinator: Beau BaldwinDefensive Coordinator: Tim DeRuyter / Peter Sirmon

46

3.75 / -0.5

47.63 (#16 OF 130)

8/31/19 CAL DAVIS9/7/19 at Washington UNDER the total is 5-0 in L5 games of WAS-CAL series at WASHINGTON9/14/19 NORTH TEXAS9/21/19 at Ole Miss9/27/19 ARIZONA ST HOME TEAMS are 12-6 SU & 13-5 ATS in CAL-AZS series since 199510/5/19 at Oregon OREGON is 5-0 SU & ATS in its L5 games hosting CALIFORNIA10/19/19 OREGON ST FAVORITES are 14-6 SU & 12-8 ATS in ORS-CAL series since 199910/26/19 at Utah HOME TEAMS are 6-0 SU & 5-1 ATS in L6 games of CAL-UTA series11/9/19 WASHINGTON ST ROAD TEAMS are 7-9 SU but 12-4 ATS in CAL-WASU series since 200111/16/19 USC UNDER the total is 5-0 in L5 games of USC-CAL series11/23/19 at Stanford ROAD TEAMS are 13-14 SU but 19-7 ATS in STA-CAL series since 199211/30/19 at UCLA UNDER the total is 6-0 in L6 games of UCLA-CAL series

9/1/18 NORTH CAROLINA 24-17 W -7 T 57.5 U9/8/18 at BYU 21-18 W 2 W 47.5 U9/15/18 IDAHO ST 45-23 W -37.5 L 58.5 O9/29/18 OREGON 24-42 L 2.5 L 57.5 O10/6/18 at Arizona 17-24 L -1.5 L 57 U10/13/18 UCLA 7-37 L -7 L 53.5 U10/20/18 at Oregon St 49-7 W -9.5 W 57.5 U10/27/18 WASHINGTON 12-10 W 11.5 W 45.5 U11/3/18 at Washington St 13-19 L 7 W 51.5 U11/10/18 at USC 15-14 W 4.5 W 45 U11/24/18 COLORADO 33-21 W -11.5 W 44.5 O12/1/18 STANFORD 13-23 L 3 L 45.5 U12/26/18 vs. TCU 7-10 L 2.5 L 38.5 U

The Golden Bears improved from 5-7 in coach Justin Wilcox’s first year to 7-6 last year, which ended with a hideous 10-7 overtime loss to Texas Christian in the Cheez-It Bowl. In one of the worst bowls ever played, Cal quarterbacks tossed five of the game’s nine interceptions. The QB position is slightly more stable but a lackluster passing attack could again be a problem. Chase Garbers will compete with UCLA transfer Devon Modster for the top job, and neither is the next Aaron Rodgers. Cal’s offense ranked near the bottom of college football in red-zone efficiency and turnovers. Wilcox is a defensive wizard, so the Bears will bank on success on that side of the ball. Cal’s scoring defense improved from 42.6 points per game in 2016 (pre-Wilcox) to 28.4 in 2017 to 20.4 last year. Seven starters return

for what should be another rock-solid defense. The Bears were fortunate in close games by upsetting BYU (21-18), Washington (12-10) and USC (15-14). Some of that luck might run out this year, when the Bears face Washington, Oregon, Utah, Stanford and UCLA on the road. Cal is likely headed for five wins, with six as the ceiling.

UNDER 6CIRCA




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CALIFORNIAGOLDEN BEARS




2018 46 15.9 1.59 -8.1 10-QB 29.3 5.73 13.82 8 13.4 4.14 21.112017 Yes 47 18.3 1.45 -0.7 6-QB, OC 34.1 6.35 13.86 8-DC 15.8 4.9 22.962016 44.5 14.2 1.57 -0.5 4-QB, OC 44.3 7.26 14.14 5 30.1 5.69 14.612015 50 25 3.07 -11.6 8 43 8.26 14.69 9 18.1 5.19 21.55

• CALIFORNIA is 13-2 ATS (L15G) at HOME - After a blowout SU win of 20 points or more

• CALIFORNIA is 3-12 ATS (L15G) - [vs OPP] After playing a game that went into overtime

• CALIFORNIA is 21-4 UNDER (L25G) on ROAD - [vs OPP] After a conference SU win





SCHEDULE STRENGTH

2019 SCHEDULE




OREGON STBEAVERSLocation: Corvallis, OR Stadium: Reser Stadium Head Coach: Jonathan Smith - 2nd season2018 Record: 2-10Returning Starters: 16 - Offense: 7 QB - Defense: 9Offensive Coordinator: Brian LindgrenDefensive Coordinator: Tim Tibesar

35

2.75 / -0.75

47.96 (#14 OF 130)

8/30/19 OKLAHOMA ST9/7/19 at Hawaii UNDERDOGS are 2-3 SU but 4-1 ATS in L5 games of HAW-ORS series9/14/19 CAL POLY SLO9/28/19 STANFORD FAVORITES are 17-3 SU & 13-7 ATS in ORS-STA series since 199810/5/19 at UCLA UCLA is 9-3 SU & 10-2 ATS vs. OREGON ST since 200110/12/19 UTAH UNDER the total is 5-1 in L6 games of UTA-ORS series10/19/19 at California FAVORITES are 14-6 SU & 12-8 ATS in ORS-CAL series since 199911/2/19 at Arizona FAVORITES are 14-6 SU & ATS in ARI-ORS series since 199611/8/19 WASHINGTON ROAD TEAMS are 2-3 SU but 5-0 ATS in L5 games of ORS-WAS series11/16/19 ARIZONA ST HOME TEAMS are 16-5 SU & 14-6 ATS in AZS-ORS series since 199411/23/19 at Washington St OVER the total is 6-0 in L6 games of WASU-ORS series11/30/19 at Oregon OVER the total is 7-0 in L7 games of ORE-ORS series at OREGON

9/1/18 at Ohio St 31-77 L 39 L 62 O9/8/18 S UTAH 48-25 W -12.5 W 70 O9/15/18 at Nevada 35-37 L 4 W 67 O9/22/18 ARIZONA 14-35 L 4 L 72.5 U9/29/18 at Arizona St 24-52 L 22 L 64.5 O10/6/18 WASHINGTON ST 37-56 L 18.5 L 65 O10/20/18 CALIFORNIA 7-49 L 9.5 L 57.5 U10/27/18 at Colorado 41-34 W 26 W 59 O11/3/18 USC 21-38 L 15.5 L 64.5 U11/10/18 at Stanford 17-48 L 25 L 61.5 O11/17/18 at Washington 23-42 L 32 W 58.5 O11/23/18 OREGON 15-55 L 18 L 71 U

It would be difficult for any power conference team with Cal Poly on its schedule to win fewer than two games. The beleaguered Beavers, who finished 2-10 last year and 1-11 in 2017, are capable of pulling off the feat. Their most likely result is another two-win season. But with Over 2 offered at +130 at Caesars, let’s try to be positive. On a list of the most undesirable jobs, Oregon State football coach ranks somewhere (but not far) above driving a garbage truck and managing a sewage treatment facility. Jonathan Smith is back for his second season, and optimists might point to his 16 returning starters. Of course, those players started for an awful team. The Beavers’ defense allowed 45.7 points per game. Is it good news that nine starters return? There is hope on the offensive side with 6-foot-7

senior quarterback Jake Luton and sophomore running back Jermar Jefferson, who rushed for 1,380 yards and 12 touchdowns. Oregon State has Oklahoma State and Hawaii on its nonconference schedule, but the Beavers will be favored only once all season (against Cal Poly). Three wins is an attainable dream, yet it’s not worth a bet.

OVER 2CAESARS




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OREGON STBEAVERS

Points Per Game 24.1 93Yards Per Point 15.9 96Plays Per Game 80.5 6Time of Possession 30:29 473rd Down Conv. % 36.2% 90Total Yards Per Game 382.5 78Yards Per Play 4.7 114Rush Attempts Per Game 40 50Rush Yards Per Game 137 100Yards Per Rush Attempt 3.4 119Pass Attempts Per Game 36.3 26Completion % 60.2% 54Passing Yards Per Game 245.5 49Yards Per Pass Attempt 6.8 96Turnovers 1.5 79



2018 Yes 30 -1.5 0.02 9.5 7-OC 34.9 6.38 13.92 8-DC 36.4 6.36 12.642017 31.5 -4.5 0.66 2.7 7 26.6 6.28 15.19 8 31.1 5.62 12.942016 43 12.6 1.63 4.6 7-QB, OC 32.5 6.57 13.27 6-DC 19.9 4.94 18.62015 Yes 30.5 -0.4 0.59 7.7 8-QB, OC 26.5 6.13 15.2 2-DC 26.9 5.54 15.38

• OREGON ST is 9-1 ATS (L10G) on ROAD - After playing WASHINGTON ST

• OREGON ST is 2-8 ATS (L10G) at HOME - Before playing ARIZONA ST

• OREGON ST is 10-0 UNDER (L10G) at HOME - [vs OPP] After a blowout SU win of 20 points or more





SCHEDULE STRENGTH

2019 SCHEDULE




UTAHUTESLocation: Salt Lake City, UT Stadium: Rice-Eccles Stadium Head Coach: Kyle Whittingham - 15th season2018 Record: 9-5Returning Starters: 14 - Offense: 7 QB - Defense: 7Offensive Coordinator: Andy Ludwig *Defensive Coordinator: Morgan Scalley

56

3 / 0.75

43.56 (#51 OF 130)

8/29/19 at BYU ROAD TEAMS are 2-3 SU but 5-0 ATS in L5 games of BYU-UTA series9/7/19 N ILLINOIS9/14/19 IDAHO ST9/20/19 at USC HOME TEAMS are 7-1 SU & ATS in L8 games of USC-UTA series9/28/19 WASHINGTON ST WASHINGTON ST is 5-2 SU & 6-1 ATS in its L7 games vs. UTAH10/12/19 at Oregon St UNDER the total is 5-1 in L6 games of UTA-ORS series10/19/19 ARIZONA ST10/26/19 CALIFORNIA HOME TEAMS are 6-0 SU & 5-1 ATS in L6 games of CAL-UTA series11/2/19 at Washington UNDERDOGS are 3-4 SU but 5-2 ATS in L7 games of WAS-UTA series11/16/19 UCLA ROAD TEAMS are 6-2 SU & 7-1 ATS in L8 games of UCLA-UTA series11/23/19 at Arizona HOME TEAMS are 5-2 SU & ATS in L7 games of UTA-ARI series11/30/19 COLORADO UNDERDOGS are 1-7 SU but 6-2 ATS in L8 games of COL-UTA series

8/30/18 WEBER ST 41-10 W -30.5 W 49.5 O9/8/18 at N Illinois 17-6 W -13 L 46.5 U9/15/18 WASHINGTON 7-21 L 4 L 45.5 U9/29/18 at Washington St 24-28 L -1 L 50.5 O10/6/18 at Stanford 40-21 W 4 W 44.5 O10/12/18 ARIZONA 42-10 W -13.5 W 54 U10/20/18 USC 41-28 W -6.5 W 48.5 O10/26/18 at UCLA 41-10 W -10.5 W 54 U11/3/18 at Arizona St 20-38 L -7.5 L 55 O11/10/18 OREGON 32-25 W -6 W 50.5 O11/17/18 at Colorado 30-7 W -7 W 48 U11/24/18 BYU 35-27 W -10.5 L 45 O11/30/18 vs. Washington 3-10 L 4 L 45.5 U12/31/18 vs. Northwestern 20-31 L -6.5 L 44 O

Kyle Whittingham is a bet-on coach in a South division full of coaching riddles. Whittingham pushed the Utes over last year’s win total of 7 (9-3 in the regular season) even after starting 0-2 in conference play and eventually losing his quarterback and star running back to injuries. Utah was short-handed when it fell to Washington in the Pac-12 title game and Northwestern in the Holiday Bowl. Thanks to the returns of senior dual-threat QB Tyler Huntley and Zack Moss, who topped 1,000 rushing yards each of the past two years, the Utes are clearly the team to beat in their half of the league. Whittingham gets seven starters back on each side of the ball. The defense, again strong up front, features end Bradlee Anae and cornerback Jaylon Johnson. Anae had eight sacks last season and headlines the “Sack

Lake City” pass-rush attack. Utah, which opens with its rivalry game at BYU, faces USC and Washington on the road. Aside from those potential potholes, the Utes should coast through a majority of the schedule and win at least nine games, making this a best bet. With some injury luck, Whittingham has a team capable of winning the Pac-12.

OVER 8.5POINTSBET


2019 PAC-12 CONFERENCE SOUTH DIVISION


TOP TRENDS FOR 2019







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UTAHUTES




2018 52.5 28.4 2.98 -10.4 8-QB 39.5 6.94 12.09 6 11.1 3.96 24.342017 53 19.7 2.1 -12.4 4-QB, OC 34 6.66 14.23 5 14.3 4.56 21.692016 49.5 21.6 1.72 -9 6-QB 35.6 6.68 13.96 7-DC 14 4.97 24.112015 51 25.2 1.68 -12.1 7- OC 36.4 6.21 12.22 7-DC 11.2 4.53 28.34

• UTAH is 15-3 ATS (L18G) - Underdog of 10 or more points

• UTAH is 1-6 ATS (L7G) - VS WASHINGTON ST

• UTAH is 7-0 UNDER (L7G) - After playing USC





SCHEDULE STRENGTH

2019 SCHEDULE




USCTROJANSLocation: Los Angeles, CA Stadium: Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum Head Coach: Clay Helton - 5th season2018 Record: 5-7Returning Starters: 11 - Offense: 6 QB - Defense: 5Offensive Coordinator: Graham Harrell *Defensive Coordinator: Clancy Pendergast

51

3.25 / -0.5

50.5 (#2 OF 130)

8/31/19 FRESNO ST9/7/19 STANFORD OVER the total is 16-8 in USC-STA series since 19959/14/19 at BYU9/20/19 UTAH HOME TEAMS are 7-1 SU & ATS in L8 games of USC-UTA series9/28/19 at Washington UNDERDOGS are 4-6 SU but 8-2 ATS in WAS-USC series since 200510/12/19 at Notre Dame HOME TEAMS are 5-2 SU & 7-0 ATS in L7 games of USC-ND series10/19/19 ARIZONA ROAD TEAMS are 12-10 SU & 15-7 ATS in ARI-USC series since 199410/25/19 at Colorado HOME TEAMS are 5-3 SU & 6-2 ATS in L8 games of COL-USC series11/2/19 OREGON FAVORITES are 9-2 SU & ATS in USC-ORE series since 200211/9/19 at Arizona St FAVORITES are 21-4 SU & 17-8 ATS in USC-AZS series since 199211/16/19 at California UNDER the total is 5-0 in L5 games of USC-CAL series11/23/19 UCLA UNDER the total is 5-0 in L5 games of USC-UCLA series at USC

9/1/18 UNLV 43-21 W -24.5 L 60 O9/8/18 at Stanford 3-17 L 4.5 L 53 U9/15/18 at Texas 14-37 L 3 L 47.5 O9/21/18 WASHINGTON ST 39-36 W -4.5 L 50.5 O9/29/18 at Arizona 24-20 W -3 W 62 U10/13/18 COLORADO 31-20 W -7 W 57.5 U10/20/18 at Utah 28-41 L 6.5 L 48.5 O10/27/18 ARIZONA ST 35-38 L -3 L 52 O11/3/18 at Oregon St 38-21 W -15.5 W 64.5 U11/10/18 CALIFORNIA 14-15 L -4.5 L 45 U11/17/18 at UCLA 27-34 L -3 L 55 O11/24/18 NOTRE DAME 17-24 L 14 W 55 U

Every preseason list of coaches on the proverbial “hot seat” will include Clay Helton, who is feeling the heat after a 5-7 fiasco in his third year. Helton hired Kliff Kingsbury as his offensive coordinator, only to immediately lose him to the NFL. The backup plan was Graham Harrell, a former Texas Tech quarterback and OC at North Texas. The bottom line is Helton and Harrell need to develop sophomore QB JT Daniels in a hurry. The Trojans have plenty of receiver and running back talent to support Daniels, who completed only 59.5 percent of his passes with 14 touchdowns and 10 picks. A defense that allowed 27 points per game returns only five starters. In a rarity, not one player left USC early for the NFL Draft — a negative statement about the program’s talent level, but also a positive for this season. USC’s first six games

(Fresno State, Stanford, at BYU, Utah, at Washington, at Notre Dame) should leave Helton at 3-3, and then it’s make-or-break time. The win total (6½ at PointsBet and 7 at other books) is on the money, as this team projects to 7-5. But the Trojans have some NFL talent and, if Daniels develops, this team should win seven or eight.

OVER 6.5POINTSBET




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USCTROJANS




2018 50 16.9 2.3 -6.1 7 34.8 6.91 13.13 6 17.9 4.61 18.632017 57.5 27 3.4 -15.6 5 41 8.18 14.62 7 14 4.78 24.432016 63.5 31 3.37 -23 10-QB, OC 41.4 7.78 13.82 5-DC 10.4 4.41 29.222015 54.5 29.4 2.88 -15.7 7 41.4 7.72 13.31 7 12.1 4.84 28.02

• USC is 14-3 ATS (L17G) at HOME - VS lower ranked team

• USC is 2-13 ATS (L15G) on ROAD - as AP top 5

• USC is 13-2 UNDER (L15G) - VS CALIFORNIA





SCHEDULE STRENGTH

2019 SCHEDULE




ARIZONA STSUN DEVILSLocation: Tempe, AZ Stadium: Sun Devil Stadium, Frank Kush Field Head Coach: Herm Edwards - 2nd season2018 Record: 7-6Returning Starters: 15 - Offense: 8 - Defense: 7Offensive Coordinator: Rob LikensDefensive Coordinator: Danny Gonzales

48.5

3.25 / -0.5

43.1 (#54 OF 130)

8/29/19 KENT ST9/6/19 SACRAMENTO ST9/14/19 at Michigan St9/21/19 COLORADO HOME TEAMS are 6-1 SU & 7-0 ATS in L7 games of COL-AZS series9/27/19 at California HOME TEAMS are 12-6 SU & 13-5 ATS in CAL-AZS series since 199510/12/19 WASHINGTON ST HOME TEAMS are 10-6 SU & 13-3 ATS in AZS-WASU series since 200110/19/19 at Utah10/26/19 at UCLA UCLA is 12-8 ATS vs. ARIZONA ST since 199411/9/19 USC FAVORITES are 21-4 SU & 17-8 ATS in USC-AZS series since 199211/16/19 at Oregon St HOME TEAMS are 16-5 SU & 14-6 ATS in AZS-ORS series since 199411/23/19 OREGON OREGON is 11-1 SU & 8-3 ATS vs. ARIZONA ST since 200511/29/19 ARIZONA HOME TEAMS are 5-2 SU & 5-0 ATS in L7 games of ARI-AZS series

9/1/18 TX-SAN ANTONIO 49-7 W -17 W 52 O9/8/18 MICHIGAN ST 16-13 W 4.5 W 53 U9/15/18 at San Diego St 21-28 L -5.5 L 48 O9/22/18 at Washington 20-27 L 18 W 54 U9/29/18 OREGON ST 52-24 W -22 W 64.5 O10/6/18 at Colorado 21-28 L 2 L 64 U10/18/18 STANFORD 13-20 L 1.5 L 57.5 U10/27/18 at USC 38-35 W 3 W 52 O11/3/18 UTAH 38-20 W 7.5 W 55 O11/10/18 UCLA 31-28 W -12.5 L 65.5 U11/17/18 at Oregon 29-31 L 3.5 W 66 U11/24/18 at Arizona 41-40 W -1 T 66 O12/15/18 vs. Fresno St 20-31 L 6 L 54.5 U

While the other teams in the South division are obviously improved, that’s not obvious with the Sun Devils. The offense’s big three — quarterback Manny Wilkins, running back Eno Benjamin and wideout N’Keal Harry — has been reduced to one. Wilkins (Green Bay, undrafted) and Harry (New England, first round) are off to the NFL. It’s hard to imagine Arizona State will top the 7-6 mark from coach Herm Edwards’ first year. Benjamin, who carried 300 times for 1,642 yards and 16 TDs, is a stud and the focal point. The Devils have plenty of receiver talent and the line is experienced, but the QB spot is up in the air with junior Dillon Sterling-Cole trying to fend off hyped freshman Jayden Daniels. Edwards built a better defense, improving the numbers to 25.5 points and 404 yards per game, and seven starters

return. Arizona State has three September home games (Kent, Sacramento State, Colorado) it should win before the schedule stiffens. The Devils lost to Fresno State in the Las Vegas Bowl. Another bowl trip is likely but, mostly because of inexperienced QBs, 6-6 is a much better bet than 8-4 so look under the total.

UNDER 7CAESARS




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ARIZONA STSUN DEVILS




2018 Yes 49.5 20.9 2.24 -6.8 8-QB, OC 40.3 7.17 12.31 4-DC 19.4 4.94 18.132017 47.5 18.9 1.52 -5.3 7- OC 37.5 6.86 13.87 8-DC 18.6 5.34 20.352016 38 11.6 0.21 -2.1 4-QB, OC 38 6.26 12.36 6 26.4 6.05 16.892015 49.5 18.1 1.54 -7.7 7-QB 39.3 6.81 14.23 9 21.2 5.26 18.29

• ARIZONA ST is 16-5 ATS (L5Y) at HOME - On Saturday

• ARIZONA ST is 1-6 ATS (L7G) on ROAD - Before playing UCLA

• ARIZONA ST is 12-2-1 UNDER (L15G) - 1000 or more travel miles





SCHEDULE STRENGTH

2019 SCHEDULE




UCLABRUINSLocation: Pasadena, CA Stadium: Rose Bowl Stadium Head Coach: Chip Kelly - 2nd season2018 Record: 3-9Returning Starters: 19 - Offense: 9 QB - Defense: 10Offensive Coordinator: Justin Frye *Defensive Coordinator: Jerry Azzinaro

49

2 / -0.75

49.48 (#4 OF 130)

8/29/19 at Cincinnati9/7/19 SAN DIEGO ST FAVORITES are 7-0 SU & 6-0 ATS in L7 games of UCLA-SDS series9/14/19 OKLAHOMA OVER the total is 3-0 in L3 games of OKL-UCLA series9/21/19 at Washington St UNDERDOGS are 1-4 SU but 5-0 ATS in L5 games of WASU-UCLA series9/28/19 at Arizona FAVORITES are 17-4 SU & 14-6 ATS in ARI-UCLA series since 199610/5/19 OREGON ST UCLA is 9-3 SU & 10-2 ATS vs. OREGON ST since 200110/17/19 at Stanford STANFORD is 6-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in its L6 games vs. UCLA10/26/19 ARIZONA ST UCLA is 12-8 ATS vs. ARIZONA ST since 199411/2/19 COLORADO COLORADO is 2-4 SU but 5-1 ATS in its L6 games vs. UCLA11/16/19 at Utah ROAD TEAMS are 6-2 SU & 7-1 ATS in L8 games of UCLA-UTA series11/23/19 at USC UNDER the total is 5-0 in L5 games of USC-UCLA series at USC11/30/19 CALIFORNIA UNDER the total is 6-0 in L6 games of UCLA-CAL series

9/1/18 CINCINNATI 17-26 L -14 L 63 U9/8/18 at Oklahoma 21-49 L 30.5 W 65.5 O9/15/18 FRESNO ST 14-38 L 2.5 L 52.5 U9/28/18 at Colorado 16-38 L 9.5 L 57.5 U10/6/18 WASHINGTON 24-31 L 21.5 W 53.5 O10/13/18 at California 37-7 W 7 W 53.5 U10/20/18 ARIZONA 31-30 W -9 L 57.5 O10/26/18 UTAH 10-41 L 10.5 L 54 U11/3/18 at Oregon 21-42 L 10.5 L 59 O11/10/18 at Arizona St 28-31 L 12.5 W 65.5 U11/17/18 USC 34-27 W 3 W 55 O11/24/18 STANFORD 42-49 L 7 T 60.5 O

In four years at Oregon, Chip Kelly finished with a record of 46-7. He was no wizard in his first year in Westwood while going 3-9. There are signs of unrest within the program — some players are not crazy about the gruff coach and his methods — but winning would silence the grumbling. With 19 returning starters, the Bruins are in a position to win. Sophomore quarterback Dorian Thompson-Robinson is a good fit for Kelly’s system. Joshua Kelley, who rushed for 1,243 yards and 12 TDs as a junior, is a punishing runner who ripped off 289 yards in a victory over USC. The Bruins’ offense averaged only 312 yards and 17 points in last season’s first four games, compared to 31.3 points per game in the final four. That was the type of improvement that was anticipated under Kelly. The offensive line is stronger, and a defense that surrendered 445

yards per game is now a veteran unit. The Bruins are 3½-point ‘dogs in their season opener at Cincinnati before returning home to face San Diego State and Oklahoma. UCLA does avoid North division favorites Washington and Oregon on the schedule, so bet on Kelly at least getting to 6-6 with a good shot at seven wins.

OVER 5.5POINTSBET




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UCLABRUINS




2018 Yes 44.5 12.6 1.93 -2.5 5-OC 36.5 6.92 13.48 7-DC 23.9 4.98 15.462017 46.5 17.9 2.86 -7.3 9- OC 39.9 8.05 14.66 6 22.1 5.19 18.392016 45 16.2 2.42 -13 4- OC 32.6 6.56 14.08 9 16.4 4.14 19.932015 53.5 24.5 3.1 -12.6 10-QB 38.5 7.34 14.5 8-DC 14 4.25 24.3

• UCLA is 8-2 ATS (L10G) at HOME - [vs OPP] AP top 10

• UCLA is 2-8 ATS (L10G) - as AP top 10

• UCLA is 9-1 UNDER (L10G) - After playing OREGON ST





SCHEDULE STRENGTH

2019 SCHEDULE




ARIZONAWILDCATSLocation: Tucson, AZ Stadium: Arizona Stadium Head Coach: Kevin Sumlin - 2nd season2018 Record: 5-7Returning Starters: 15 - Offense: 7 QB - Defense: 8Offensive Coordinator: Noel MazzoneDefensive Coordinator: Marcel Yates

46.5

3 / -1

46.1 (#30 OF 130)

8/24/19 at Hawaii9/7/19 N ARIZONA HOME TEAMS are 5-0 SU & ATS in L5 games of ARI-NAU series9/14/19 TEXAS TECH9/28/19 UCLA FAVORITES are 17-4 SU & 14-6 ATS in ARI-UCLA series since 199610/5/19 at Colorado OVER the total is 7-1 in L8 games of COL-ARI series10/12/19 WASHINGTON HOME TEAMS are 8-2 SU & 9-1 ATS in WAS-ARI series since 200710/19/19 at USC ROAD TEAMS are 12-10 SU & 15-7 ATS in ARI-USC series since 199410/26/19 at Stanford FAVORITES are 6-0 SU & 5-1 ATS in L6 games of ARI-STA series11/2/19 OREGON ST FAVORITES are 14-6 SU & ATS in ARI-ORS series since 199611/16/19 at Oregon UNDER the total is 6-0 in L6 games of ORE-ARI series11/23/19 UTAH HOME TEAMS are 5-2 SU & ATS in L7 games of UTA-ARI series11/29/19 at Arizona St HOME TEAMS are 5-2 SU & 5-0 ATS in L7 games of ARI-AZS series

9/1/18 BYU 23-28 L -10.5 L 58.5 U9/8/18 at Houston 18-45 L 3.5 L 71 U9/15/18 S UTAH 62-31 W -24 W 71.5 O9/22/18 at Oregon St 35-14 W -4 W 72.5 U9/29/18 USC 20-24 L 3 L 62 U10/6/18 CALIFORNIA 24-17 W 1.5 W 57 U10/12/18 at Utah 10-42 L 13.5 L 54 U10/20/18 at UCLA 30-31 L 9 W 57.5 O10/27/18 OREGON 44-15 W 8.5 W 66 U11/2/18 COLORADO 42-34 W -3.5 W 56.5 O11/17/18 at Washington St 28-69 L 10.5 L 63 O11/24/18 ARIZONA ST 40-41 L 1 T 66 O

The combination of an ankle injury and mysterious play-calling turned Khalil Tate’s junior year into a lost cause. The dual-threat quarterback was no longer a running threat, picking up only 224 yards on the ground after rushing for 1,411 the previous year. The Wildcats tailed off from 7-6 in 2017 to 5-7 in coach Kevin Sumlin’s disappointing first season. Tate has improved as a passer but his wheels are the key to a bounce-back year because he’s a dynamic playmaker when healthy. Arizona returns seven offensive starters, including four on the line, and 1,434-yard rusher J.J. Taylor. The defense was weak last season but returns eight starters and should be stronger. Arizona has talent similar to USC and UCLA, and Tate could boost the Wildcats to a better record, but Sumlin made some poor decisions in close

games, including one-point losses to UCLA and Arizona State. Many analysts will pencil in Arizona for wins against Hawaii and Texas Tech, yet both opponents will be sneaky good this year. If Tate is spectacular, the Wildcats can top their win total, but the Pac-12 schedule is tough and this has the look of a 6-6 team.

UNDER 6.5WESTGATE




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ARIZONAWILDCATS




2018 Yes 46 12.4 2.03 -2.8 7-QB, OC 37 7.13 14.15 9 24.6 5.09 15.612017 49.5 21.6 2.85 -11.7 7 45.5 8.16 12.54 7 23.9 5.32 17.082016 36 5.3 2.16 2.1 7 33.6 7.36 14.9 8-DC 28.3 5.2 14.152015 47.5 15.8 2.08 -5.4 7 42.1 7.33 13.56 6 26.3 5.25 15.53

• ARIZONA is 6-1 ATS (L7G) at HOME - Before playing UCLA

• ARIZONA is 7-18 ATS (L10Y) on ROAD - [vs OPP] After SU win

• ARIZONA is 7-0 OVER (L7G) - Favorite of more than 20 points





SCHEDULE STRENGTH

2019 SCHEDULE




COLORADOBUFFALOESLocation: Boulder, CO Stadium: Folsom Field Head Coach: Mel Tucker - 1st season2018 Record: 5-7Returning Starters: 11 - Offense: 7 QB - Defense: 4Offensive Coordinator: Jay Johnson *Defensive Coordinator: Tyson Summers *

43

3.25 / 0

48.13 (#11 OF 130)

8/30/19 vs. Colorado St ROAD TEAMS are 2-3 SU but 5-0 ATS in L5 games of COL-CSU series9/7/19 NEBRASKA COLORADO is 5-11 SU but 12-4 ATS vs. NEBRASKA since 19969/14/19 AIR FORCE9/21/19 at Arizona St HOME TEAMS are 6-1 SU & 7-0 ATS in L7 games of COL-AZS series10/5/19 ARIZONA OVER the total is 7-1 in L8 games of COL-ARI series10/11/19 at Oregon OREGON is 6-1 SU & ATS in its L7 games vs. COLORADO10/19/19 at Washington St FAVORITES are 4-0 SU & ATS in L4 games of WASU-COL series10/25/19 USC HOME TEAMS are 5-3 SU & 6-2 ATS in L8 games of COL-USC series11/2/19 at UCLA COLORADO is 2-4 SU but 5-1 ATS in its L6 games vs. UCLA11/9/19 STANFORD ROAD TEAMS are 4-0 SU & ATS in L4 games of COL-STA series11/23/19 WASHINGTON WASHINGTON is 9-1 SU & 8-2 ATS vs. COLORADO since 199611/30/19 at Utah UNDERDOGS are 1-7 SU but 6-2 ATS in L8 games of COL-UTA series

8/31/18 vs. Colorado St 45-13 W -7 W 65 U9/8/18 at Nebraska 33-28 W 3 W 62 U9/15/18 NEW HAMPSHIRE 45-14 W -37.5 L 54 O9/28/18 UCLA 38-16 W -9.5 W 57.5 U10/6/18 ARIZONA ST 28-21 W -2 W 64 U10/13/18 at USC 20-31 L 7 L 57.5 U10/20/18 at Washington 13-27 L 18.5 W 49.5 U10/27/18 OREGON ST 34-41 L -26 L 59 O11/2/18 at Arizona 34-42 L 3.5 L 56.5 O11/10/18 WASHINGTON ST 7-31 L 5 L 58.5 U11/17/18 UTAH 7-30 L 7 L 48 U11/24/18 at California 21-33 L 11.5 L 44.5 O

Basically every prognosticator is picking the Buffaloes to finish last in the division, but they are not bad. It’s just a team on a seven-game losing streak with a demanding schedule and a first-time head coach. Mel Tucker, the former defensive coordinator at Georgia and previously an assistant at Alabama, takes over for Mike MacIntyre, who went 10-4 in 2016 before suffering back-to-back 5-7 seasons. Colorado opened last year 5-0 before the wheels fell off. Tucker is a high-energy disciplinarian, a change that should help the Buffaloes rebound. Colorado will show off a more up-tempo offense directed by senior QB Steven Montez, who will target big-time wideout Laviska Shenault, a name to remember in the next NFL Draft. Eight starters return on offense, and Tucker can be counted on to rebuild a solid

defense. The Buffaloes should pick up wins against Mountain West opponents Colorado State and Air Force, but those are not gimmes, and the Pac-12 schedule offers no breaks and no Oregon State. Expect Tucker to field a competitive team and while winning five games is not out of the question, this is a lean to 3-9 or 4-8 because of the schedule.

UNDER 4.5POINTSBET




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COLORADOBUFFALOES




2018 39.5 14.6 1.63 -2.5 4-QB 35.4 6.25 12.83 6 20.7 4.61 16.162017 41 11.5 0.92 -2.9 9-QB 30 6.34 16.03 3-DC 18.4 5.41 21.642016 54.5 31.8 2.74 -14.1 9 40.9 6.74 13.23 9 9.1 4 30.672015 39.5 9.8 0.66 2.8 7 28.8 5.79 15.6 9-DC 18.9 5.13 19.76

• COLORADO is 8-2 ATS (L10G) - Before playing NEBRASKA

• COLORADO is 5-20 ATS (L25G) - [vs OPP] AP top 10

• COLORADO is 10-0 UNDER (L10G) at NEUT - As favorite



SOUTHEASTERNCONFERENCE PREVIEW


EAST DIVISIONGEORGIA 67.5 2.25 0.5 48.00 13 10.4 1.6 6.7 1.3FLORIDA 62 3 -0.25 48.48 7 8.8 3.2 5.2 2.8MISSOURI 55.5 3 -0.5 46.23 29 8.5 3.5 4.9 3.1SOUTH CAROLINA 53 2.5 0.25 52.17 1 5.7 6.3 3.1 4.9KENTUCKY 49 2.5 0.5 45.50 35 6.7 5.3 3.1 4.9TENNESSEE 51.5 2.5 0.5 48.15 10 6.5 5.5 2.9 5.1VANDERBILT 44.5 2.25 0 48.50 6 4.7 7.3 1.7 6.3

WEST DIVISIONALABAMA 72 3 1 44.27 44 11.1 0.9 7.1 0.9LSU 63 3 0.25 47.92 15 9.2 2.8 5.6 2.4MISSISSIPPI ST 57.5 3.5 0 46.71 23 8.3 3.7 4.5 3.5TEXAS A&M 58 2.75 0.25 48.94 5 7.3 4.7 4.2 3.8AUBURN 58.5 3 0 50.33 3 7.5 4.5 3.9 4.1OLE MISS 45.5 3 -0.75 48.31 9 4.9 7.1 2.1 5.9ARKANSAS 41.5 2.25 -0.25 46.44 25 4.7 7.3 1.1 6.9



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GAMEEAST DIVISION CHAMPION FLORIDA GEORGIA GEORGIA FLORIDA GEORGIA FLORIDA GEORGIA GEORGIA

WEST DIVISION CHAMPION ALABAMA ALABAMA ALABAMA ALABAMA ALABAMA ALABAMA ALABAMA ALABAMA

SEC CHAMPIONSHIP ALABAMA GEORGIA GEORGIA ALABAMA ALABAMA ALABAMA ALABAMA ALABAMA

WRITTEN BY DAVE TULEY - @VIEWFROMVEGAS


Alabama and ‘The Field’Alabama is the odds-on favorite in Vegas from -140 at Circa to -190 at William Hill. Georgia, expected to be the class of the SEC East, is the distant second choice around 3/1 with Florida at 8/1 and LSU 10/1. However, if you’re looking to fade Alabama, I don’t think trying to pinpoint the team to knock off Alabama in the SEC West or knock them off in the SEC Championship Game is the way to go. The better play is to find a prop with the “Field” vs. Alabama. At around +150, I think that would be a fair price as Alabama doesn’t always go undefeated, so the Tide could stumble along the way (and I fear with QB Tua Tagovailoa being injury prone that Bama could miss Jalen Hurts after the way he bailed it out last year). Besides, Alabama has also shown it can still make the College Football Playoff without having to win the SEC.

Texas A&M, Mississippi State and MissouriIt’s not likely that any team outside those top 4 will threaten to steal the conference title, but plenty of teams in this deepest of leagues are capable of pulling upsets on any given Saturday. Texas A&M won’t be an underdog often, but should be considered live when it is. Mississippi State’s defense should keep it in any game and Missouri will be a tempting dog with former Clemson QB Kelly Bryant used to performing on the big stage. And even if they’re not expected to win many games outright, Arkansas and Vanderbilt could cover some big spreads if they continue to improve.

Arkansas and VanderbiltArkansas and Vanderbilt also fit in this category, especially if expecting them to rack up a lot of straight-up wins, but I’d actually consider Mississippi (with it’s terrible defense that allowed 36.2 points per game last season), Tennessee (with its supbar offensive and defensive lines in a conference where you have to be strong in the trenches) and Kentucky (which lost so much talent from its 10-win squad, especially Benny Snell and Josh Allen) to be harder to make a case for on a weekly basis.

2019 SOUTHEASTERN CONFERENCE PREVIEW

THE FAVORITES

LIVE DOGS

DEAD MONEY

BIG GAMES ON THE BOARDOregon vs. Auburn, Aug. 31The Tigers are 3-point favorites in Arlington, Texas, and the Ducks could make a major statement by beating one of the SEC’s top teams. Auburn coach Gus Malzahn defeated another Pac-12 team, Washington, in a neutral-field opener last year.

Notre Dame at Georgia, Sept. 21This is Georgia’s only real nonconference test. The Bulldogs were 5-point ‘dogs in a 20-19 win at ND in 2017. That was Georgia quarterback Jake Fromm’s first road start. The Irish are 11-point road ‘dogs in the rematch.

Mississippi State at Auburn, Sept. 28Can any team challenge Alabama in the SEC East besides LSU? We’ll likely have the answer after this late September matchup. LSU is a 9-point home favorite at Westgate.

Georgia vs. Florida(at Jacksonville), Nov. 2The annual World’s Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party is the de facto SEC East title game for a berth in the SEC Championship Game as these

two teams are head-and-shoulders above the rest of the division.

LSU at Alabama, Nov. 9This is expected to be the Crimson Tide’s biggest test in the SEC West race, though it’s still a 16-point favorite in the Games of the Year at the Westgate.

Alabama at Auburn, Nov. 30Bama is just a 13-point favorite in the annual Iron Bowl vs. its biggest rival, which is why the line is shorter than its game vs. LSU (plus it’s on the road as opposed to home).

SEC Championship Game, Dec. 7The matchup and line is to be determined, but the SEC title game is always expected to have College Football Playoff implications.




SCHEDULE STRENGTH

2019 SCHEDULE




2019 SOUTHEASTERN CONFERENCE EAST DIVISION

GEORGIABULLDOGSLocation: Athens, GA Stadium: Sanford Stadium Head Coach: Kirby Smart - 4th season2018 Record: 11-3Returning Starters: 12 - Offense: 6 QB - Defense: 6Offensive Coordinator: James ColeyDefensive Coordinator: Dan Lanning *

67.5

2.25 / 0.5

48 (#13 OF 130)

8/31/19 at Vanderbilt HOME TEAMS are 6-4 SU & 7-3 ATS in VAN-GEO series since 20099/7/19 MURRAY ST9/14/19 ARKANSAS ST9/21/19 NOTRE DAME10/5/19 at Tennessee UNDERDOGS are 7-17 SU but 15-8 ATS in TEN-GEO series since 199410/12/19 SOUTH CAROLINA UNDER the total is 15-6 in SC-GEO series since 199610/19/19 KENTUCKY FAVORITES are 6-0 SU & ATS in L6 games of GEO-KEN series11/2/19 vs. Florida FAVORITES are 19-6 SU & 16-9 ATS in FLA-GEO series since 199411/9/19 MISSOURI MISSOURI is 1-5 SU but 5-1 ATS in its L6 games vs. GEORGIA11/16/19 at Auburn HOME TEAMS are 13-7 SU & 14-6 ATS in GEO-AUB series since 199911/23/19 TEXAS A&M11/30/19 at Georgia Tech GEORGIA is 9-1 SU & 10-0 ATS in its L10 games at GEORGIA TECH

9/1/18 AUSTIN PEAY 45-0 W -48.5 L 59.5 U9/8/18 at South Carolina 41-17 W -8.5 W 52.5 O9/15/18 MIDDLE TENN ST 49-7 W -33.5 W 59.5 U9/22/18 at Missouri 43-29 W -14.5 L 68 O9/29/18 TENNESSEE 38-12 W -30.5 L 55 U10/6/18 VANDERBILT 41-13 W -25.5 W 55.5 U10/13/18 at LSU 16-36 L -6.5 L 50 O10/27/18 vs. Florida 36-17 W -7 W 53.5 U11/3/18 at Kentucky 34-17 W -9.5 W 48 O11/10/18 AUBURN 27-10 W -13.5 W 52.5 U11/17/18 MASSACHUSETTS 66-27 W -41.5 L 67.5 O11/24/18 GEORGIA TECH 45-21 W -17 W 60.5 O12/1/18 vs. Alabama 28-35 L 11.5 W 62.5 O1/1/19 vs. Texas 21-28 L -13.5 L 60 U

Several books have Georgia’s Over/Under at 11 wins, but shop around for a 10.5. The Bulldogs are fully loaded and ready to make another run at the SEC title and national championship. QB Jake Fromm runs the offense, which averaged 38 points per game last year, and is protected by one of the best offensive lines in college football. Georgia always seems to have a stud running back and now it’s D’Andre Swift’s turn at stardom. The defense isn’t full of All-Americans like the offense, but it still ranked No. 2 in the SEC in total defense behind Mississippi State last year. Notre Dame (Sept. 21) is the only obstacle in the early part of Georgia’s schedule, and the key game is the annual clash with Florida in Jacksonville on Nov. 2. If the Bulldogs get past that game, they have a great shot at an undefeated regular season. But

even if they lose, they can still get to 11 wins.

OVER 10.5 CIRCA



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GEORGIABULLDOGS




2018 65.5 39.7 4.48 -24 8-QB 48.6 8.72 11.86 5 8.9 4.24 29.722017 69 39.6 4.4 -24.3 7 44 8.19 11.94 10 4.4 3.79 51.922016 Yes 49 13.9 1.46 -8.6 8-QB, OC 31.8 6.16 13.8 6-DC 17.9 4.7 16.272015 53.5 21.5 2.62 -11.7 7-QB, OC 34.4 6.86 12.43 6 13 4.24 20.74

• GEORGIA is 9-0 ATS (L9G) on ROAD - VS GEORGIA TECH

• GEORGIA is 0-7 ATS (L7G) at HOME - Before playing FLORIDA

• GEORGIA is 8-2 UNDER (L10G) - After playing KENTUCKY





SCHEDULE STRENGTH

2019 SCHEDULE




FLORIDAGATORSLocation: Gainesville, FL Stadium: Steve Spurrier-Florida Field at Ben Hill Griffin Stadium Head Coach: Dan Mullen - 2nd season2018 Record: 10-3Returning Starters: 13 - Offense: 5 QB - Defense: 8Offensive Coordinator: Billy Gonzales / John HevesyDefensive Coordinator: Todd Grantham

62

3 / -0.25

48.48 (#7 OF 130)

8/24/19 vs. Miami Fl MIAMI FL is 5-1 SU & ATS in its L6 games vs. FLORIDA9/7/19 TENN-MARTIN9/14/19 at Kentucky ROAD TEAMS are 13-10 SU & 15-8 ATS in KEN-FLA series since 19969/21/19 TENNESSEE ROAD TEAMS are 9-2 ATS in TEN-FLA series since 20079/28/19 TOWSON10/5/19 AUBURN AUBURN is 4-1 SU & 5-0 ATS in its L5 games vs. FLORIDA10/12/19 at LSU UNDER the total is 15-8 in FLA-LSU series since 199410/19/19 at South Carolina ROAD TEAMS are 2-5 SU but 5-1 ATS in L7 games of SC-FLA series11/2/19 vs. Georgia FAVORITES are 19-6 SU & 16-9 ATS in FLA-GEO series since 199411/9/19 VANDERBILT ROAD TEAMS are 13-10 SU & 15-6 ATS in FLA-VAN series since 199611/16/19 at Missouri MISSOURI is 4-3 SU & 5-2 ATS in its L7 games vs. FLORIDA11/30/19 FLORIDA ST FAVORITES are 19-2 SU & 17-4 ATS in FSU-FLA series since 1998

9/1/18 CHARLESTON SOUT 53-6 W -43 W 51.5 O9/8/18 KENTUCKY 16-27 L -13.5 L 52 U9/15/18 COLORADO ST 48-10 W -21.5 W 59.5 U9/22/18 at Tennessee 47-21 W -4 W 46.5 O9/29/18 at Mississippi St 13-6 W 6.5 W 51 U10/6/18 LSU 27-19 W -1 W 44 O10/13/18 at Vanderbilt 37-27 W -10 T 51 O10/27/18 vs. Georgia 17-36 L 7 L 53.5 U11/3/18 MISSOURI 17-38 L -6.5 L 57 U11/10/18 SOUTH CAROLINA 35-31 W -6.5 L 54 O11/17/18 IDAHO 63-10 W -41 W 59 O11/24/18 at Florida St 41-14 W -8 W 52 O12/29/18 vs. Michigan 41-15 W 4 W 51 O

Some other books have Florida’s win total at 9, and the Gators might exceed that, but the safer bet is to go Over 8.5 at Circa at reasonable price of -135. I’m not the biggest fan of QB Feleipe Franks, but he did lead the offense to an average of 35 points a game last year and, assuming he improves, the offense should have the Gators right there with Georgia for the SEC West title as he has his top six receivers back along with leading rusher Lamical Perine. And the defense should be among the SEC’s best. The Gators have a tough nonconference opener against Miami-Fla. in Orlando on Aug. 24. It gets easier from there against Tennessee-Martin, Kentucky, Tennessee and Towson before SEC crossover games vs. Auburn and at LSU. The Gators’ biggest game, as usual, is vs. Georgia (Nov. 2, in Jacksonville),

which should be the de facto SEC West title game to determine who faces Alabama in the conference championship game. It says here that Florida should already be Over 8.5 wins before having to face Florida State in the regular-season finale on Nov. 30.

OVER 8.5CIRCA




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FLORIDAGATORS




2018 Yes 60 28.6 2.67 -18.8 10-QB, OC 43.6 7.13 11.26 9-DC 15 4.46 19.912017 43 13 1.45 -3.8 9 31.7 6.31 12.88 5-DC 18.7 4.87 15.822016 56 23.3 2.04 -15.8 6-QB 32.8 6.14 12.54 5 9.5 4.1 26.952015 Yes 52.5 24.5 2.11 -12.3 4- OC 34.5 6.01 11.55 7-DC 10 3.9 25.64

• FLORIDA is 7-0 ATS (L7G) at NEUT - [vs OPP] Non-ranked team

• FLORIDA is 1-6 ATS (L7G) - Before playing MISSOURI

• FLORIDA is 7-0 UNDER (L7G) - [vs OPP] After a close SU loss 3 points or less





SCHEDULE STRENGTH

2019 SCHEDULE




MISSOURITIGERSLocation: Columbia, MO Stadium: Faurot Field at Memorial Stadium Head Coach: Barry Odom - 4th season2018 Record: 8-5Returning Starters: 13 - Offense: 7 - Defense: 6Offensive Coordinator: Derek DooleyDefensive Coordinator: Ryan Walters

55.5

3 / -0.5

46.23 (#29 OF 130)

8/31/19 at Wyoming9/7/19 WEST VIRGINIA WEST VIRGINIA is 3-1 SU & 4-0 ATS in its L4 games vs. MISSOURI9/14/19 SE MISSOURI ST9/21/19 SOUTH CAROLINA UNDER the total is 6-1 in L7 games of SC-MIZ series10/5/19 TROY HOME TEAMS are 3-0 SU & ATS in L3 games of MIZ-TRO series10/12/19 OLE MISS FAVORITES are 3-0 SU & ATS in L3 games of MIZ-MIS series10/19/19 at Vanderbilt UNDER the total is 5-0 in L5 games of MIZ-VAN series10/26/19 at Kentucky ROAD TEAMS are 3-1 SU & 4-0 ATS in L4 games of MIZ-KEN series11/9/19 at Georgia MISSOURI is 1-5 SU but 5-1 ATS in its L6 games vs. GEORGIA11/16/19 FLORIDA MISSOURI is 4-3 SU & 5-2 ATS in its L7 games vs. FLORIDA11/23/19 TENNESSEE FAVORITES are 5-1 SU & ATS in L6 games of MIZ-TEN series11/30/19 at Arkansas HOME TEAMS are 4-1 SU & 5-0 ATS in L5 games of MIZ-ARK series

9/1/18 TENN-MARTIN 51-14 W -35.5 W 59.5 O9/8/18 WYOMING 40-13 W -19.5 W 52.5 O9/15/18 at Purdue 40-37 W -5.5 L 67 O9/22/18 GEORGIA 29-43 L 14.5 W 68 O10/6/18 at South Carolina 35-37 L 1 L 62.5 O10/13/18 at Alabama 10-39 L 28 L 72 U10/20/18 MEMPHIS 65-33 W -9 W 70.5 O10/27/18 KENTUCKY 14-15 L -7.5 L 54 U11/3/18 at Florida 38-17 W 6.5 W 57 U11/10/18 VANDERBILT 33-28 W -14.5 L 65 U11/17/18 at Tennessee 50-17 W -6 W 57.5 O11/23/18 ARKANSAS 38-0 W -24 W 58.5 U12/31/18 vs. Oklahoma St 33-38 L -10 L 72 U

Some books have Missouri’s win total at 8.5, but better to go Over 8 to get the push if the Tigers land on the number. Missouri lost star QB Drew Lock to the NFL, but replace him with former Clemson QB Kelly Bryant. The fan base hopes for more good news with the school’s appeal to have its postseason ban lifted. Regardless, the Tigers should be competitive again this season as Bryant has five of Lock’s top seven receivers to work with, along with 1,200-yard rusher Larry Rountree (plus Bryant adds to the running game with his skills). The early part of Missouri’s schedule is relatively soft, though it faces West Virginia (Sept. 7) and opens the SEC schedule vs. South Carolina (Sept. 21). A split of those should have the Tigers on the way to at least 8 wins. If they’re going to challenge for the SEC West title, the key stretch

is against Georgia (Nov. 9) and Florida (Nov. 16). But even if they drop those two games, they close with winnable games vs. Tennessee (Nov. 23) and at Arkansas (Nov. 30).

OVER 8CAESARS




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MISSOURITIGERS




2018 58 31.2 2.52 -14.8 9-QB, OC 46.6 7.33 12.12 7 15.4 4.8 21.022017 51.5 20 3.11 -6.7 10 46.6 8.22 12.47 5 26.6 5.11 14.262016 Yes 39 10.9 1.55 1.6 4- OC 37.9 7.05 14.7 8-DC 26.9 5.49 16.152015 43 12.7 1.28 -3.2 6 22.4 5.08 14.59 6-DC 9.7 3.8 27.33

• MISSOURI is 6-1 ATS (L7G) - After playing KENTUCKY

• MISSOURI is 2-8 ATS (L10G) at HOME - [vs OPP] After a conference SU win

• MISSOURI is 7-0 UNDER (L7G) - After playing SOUTH CAROLINA





SCHEDULE STRENGTH

2019 SCHEDULE




SOUTH CAROLINAGAMECOCKSLocation: Columbia, SC Stadium: Williams-Brice Stadium Head Coach: Will Muschamp - 4th season2018 Record: 7-6Returning Starters: 14 - Offense: 7 QB - Defense: 7Offensive Coordinator: Bryan McClendonDefensive Coordinator: Travaris Robinson

53

2.5 / 0.25

52.17 (#1 OF 130)

8/31/19 vs. North Carolina UNDER the total is 3-0 in L3 games of UNC-SC series9/7/19 CHARLESTON SOUT9/14/19 ALABAMA UNDERDOGS are 2-5 SU but 5-1 ATS in L7 games of SC-ALA series9/21/19 at Missouri UNDER the total is 6-1 in L7 games of SC-MIZ series9/28/19 KENTUCKY KENTUCKY is 5-1 SU & 6-0 ATS in its L6 games vs. SOUTH CAROLINA10/12/19 at Georgia UNDER the total is 15-6 in SC-GEO series since 199610/19/19 FLORIDA ROAD TEAMS are 2-5 SU but 5-1 ATS in L7 games of SC-FLA series10/26/19 at Tennessee ROAD TEAMS are 9-14 SU but 17-4 ATS in TEN-SC series since 199611/2/19 VANDERBILT SOUTH CAROLINA is 23-4 SU & 16-9 ATS vs. VANDERBILT since 199211/9/19 APPALACHIAN ST11/16/19 at Texas A&M ROAD TEAMS are 3-2 SU & 4-1 ATS in L5 games of TAM-SC series11/30/19 CLEMSON SOUTH CAROLINA is 5-1 ATS in its L6 games hosting CLEMSON

9/1/18 COASTAL CAROLINA 49-15 W -30.5 W 55 O9/8/18 GEORGIA 17-41 L 8.5 L 52.5 O9/22/18 at Vanderbilt 37-14 W -1.5 W 53 U9/29/18 at Kentucky 10-24 L 1 L 52.5 U10/6/18 MISSOURI 37-35 W -1 W 62.5 O10/13/18 TEXAS A&M 23-26 L 2.5 L 49.5 U10/27/18 TENNESSEE 27-24 W -10.5 L 53 U11/3/18 at Ole Miss 48-44 W 2.5 W 69 O11/10/18 at Florida 31-35 L 6.5 W 54 O11/17/18 CHATTANOOGA 49-9 W -29.5 W 49.5 O11/24/18 at Clemson 35-56 L 25.5 W 59 O12/1/18 AKRON 28-3 W -28 L 56.5 U12/29/18 vs. Virginia 0-28 L -3.5 L 53.5 U

South Carolina isn’t currently among the SEC’s elite, so that makes its schedule (which is typically hard in the SEC) especially brutal. QB Jake Bentley is OK and some of his 14 INTs last year can be blamed on a lack of protection, but it’s not like the offensive line and support from the running game are going to be any better this season. Oh, and the defense is also sub-par by SEC standards. South Carolina opens with North Carolina (Aug. 31) and a later game against Appalachian State (Nov. 9) will make it tough to run the nonconference slate. And then there’s the SEC portion with road games at Missouri (Sept. 21), Georgia (Oct. 12), Tennessee (Oct. 26) and Texas A&M (Nov. 16). Even if the Gamecocks run the table with their home games (which will be tough to even have a winning record at home as they

host Alabama on Sept. 14 and Florida on Oct. 19), their chance at bowl eligibility might come down to the season finale vs. Clemson (Nov. 30). Ouch!

UNDER 5.5WESTGATE




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SOUTH CAROLINAGAMECOCKS




2018 48.5 22.5 2.73 -7.9 8-QB 42.1 7.57 12.38 6 19.6 4.84 18.722017 49.5 19.7 1.96 -10.9 10 31.8 6.54 12.77 6 12.1 4.58 26.712016 Yes 40 7.6 0.76 0.4 4-QB, OC 25.5 5.74 15 4-DC 17.9 4.98 20.252015 43.5 11 1.38 -1.1 4-QB 33.2 6.62 12.85 8 22.2 5.24 16.84

• SOUTH CAROLINA is 8-2 ATS (L10G) - Underdog of more than 14 points

• SOUTH CAROLINA is 2-8 ATS (L10G) - [vs OPP] After a close SU win of 3 points or less

• SOUTH CAROLINA is 9-1 UNDER (L10G) at HOME - [vs OPP] After a conference SU win





SCHEDULE STRENGTH

2019 SCHEDULE




KENTUCKYWILDCATSLocation: Lexington, KY Stadium: Kroger Field at C.M. Newton Grounds Head Coach: Mark Stoops - 7th season2018 Record: 10-3Returning Starters: 10 - Offense: 6 QB - Defense: 4Offensive Coordinator: Eddie Gran / Darin HinshawDefensive Coordinator: Brad White *

49

2.5 / 0.5

45.5 (#35 OF 130)

8/31/19 TOLEDO9/7/19 E MICHIGAN9/14/19 FLORIDA ROAD TEAMS are 13-10 SU & 15-8 ATS in KEN-FLA series since 19969/21/19 at Mississippi St HOME TEAMS are 5-1 SU & 6-0 ATS in L6 games of MSS-KEN series9/28/19 at South Carolina KENTUCKY is 5-1 SU & 6-0 ATS in its L6 games vs. SOUTH CAROLINA10/12/19 ARKANSAS10/19/19 at Georgia FAVORITES are 6-0 SU & ATS in L6 games of GEO-KEN series10/26/19 MISSOURI ROAD TEAMS are 3-1 SU & 4-0 ATS in L4 games of MIZ-KEN series11/9/19 TENNESSEE TENNESSEE is 25-2 SU & 20-7 ATS vs. KENTUCKY since 199211/16/19 at Vanderbilt UNDER the total is 6-1 in L7 games of KEN-VAN series11/23/19 TENN-MARTIN11/30/19 LOUISVILLE ROAD TEAMS are 6-1 SU & 7-0 ATS in L7 games of KEN-LOU series

9/1/18 C MICHIGAN 35-20 W -17 L 50.5 O9/8/18 at Florida 27-16 W 13.5 W 52 U9/15/18 MURRAY ST 48-10 W -41 L 56.5 O9/22/18 MISSISSIPPI ST 28-7 W 10 W 56 U9/29/18 SOUTH CAROLINA 24-10 W -1 W 52.5 U10/6/18 at Texas A&M 14-20 L 5.5 L 49 U10/20/18 VANDERBILT 14-7 W -10 L 44.5 U10/27/18 at Missouri 15-14 W 7.5 W 54 U11/3/18 GEORGIA 17-34 L 9.5 L 48 O11/10/18 at Tennessee 7-24 L -5 L 43 U11/17/18 MIDDLE TENN ST 34-23 W -16.5 L 48.5 O11/24/18 at Louisville 56-10 W -16 W 53 O1/1/19 vs. Penn St 27-24 W 4.5 W 48 O

Kentucky was one of the feel-good stories in college football last year with a 10-win season, but the Wildcats lost a lot of talent, most notably workhorse RB Benny Snell and All-American pass rusher Josh Allen to the NFL. Their Over/Under win total reflects that as it’s been dropped to 6.5 and it’s going to be tough for this team to exceed that. QB Terry Wilson was serviceable but can he carry this team now without Snell to turn to? It’s hard to imagine there also not being a dropoff with the defense, which not only loses Allen but four of the five top tacklers from last season. The Wildcats’ nonconference schedule starts with Toledo (Aug. 31) and Eastern Michigan (Sept. 7), but those won’t be gimmes. And then it really gets tough with SEC games vs. Florida (Sept. 14) and at Mississippi State (Sept. 21). A slow

start could make it tough for Kentucky to even get to bowl eligibility at 6 wins. The latter part of the schedule does get easier in November with winnable games against similar competition vs. Tennessee, Vanderbilt, Tennessee-Martin and Louisville, but even if the Wildcats get 6 wins to go bowling, I don’t see them getting to 7.

UNDER 6.5CAESARS




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KENTUCKYWILDCATS




2018 53.5 25 2.03 -10.8 7 34.5 6.55 12.26 8 9.5 4.53 30.162017 44.5 11.8 1.02 -4.9 8 32.6 6.49 12.55 9-DC 20.8 5.47 17.92016 44.5 12.8 1.82 -4 9-QB, OC 36.9 7.28 13.16 4 24.1 5.46 16.32015 39.5 9.4 1.15 2.3 7- OC 34 6.15 12.28 7 24.7 5 14.39

• KENTUCKY is 8-2 ATS (L10G) - VS SOUTH CAROLINA

• KENTUCKY is 0-7 ATS (L7G) - After playing MISSOURI

• KENTUCKY is 12-3 UNDER (L15G) on ROAD - Underdog of 7 or less points





SCHEDULE STRENGTH

2019 SCHEDULE




TENNESSEEVOLUNTEERSLocation: Knoxville, TN Stadium: Neyland Stadium Head Coach: Jeremy Pruitt - 2nd season2018 Record: 5-7Returning Starters: 16 - Offense: 10 QB - Defense: 6Offensive Coordinator: Jim Chaney *Defensive Coordinator: Derrick Ansley / Chris Rumph *

51.5

2.5 / 0.5

48.15 (#10 OF 130)

8/31/19 GEORGIA ST9/7/19 BYU9/14/19 CHATTANOOGA9/21/19 at Florida ROAD TEAMS are 9-2 ATS in TEN-FLA series since 200710/5/19 GEORGIA UNDERDOGS are 7-17 SU but 15-8 ATS in TEN-GEO series since 199410/12/19 MISSISSIPPI ST FAVORITES are 5-0 SU & ATS in L5 games of TEN-MSS series10/19/19 at Alabama ROAD TEAMS are 14-12 SU & 20-6 ATS in TEN-ALA series since 199310/26/19 SOUTH CAROLINA ROAD TEAMS are 9-14 SU but 17-4 ATS in TEN-SC series since 199611/2/19 UAB UAB is 0-4 SU but 4-0 ATS in its L4 games at TENNESSEE11/9/19 at Kentucky TENNESSEE is 25-2 SU & 20-7 ATS vs. KENTUCKY since 199211/23/19 at Missouri FAVORITES are 5-1 SU & ATS in L6 games of MIZ-TEN series11/30/19 VANDERBILT VANDERBILT is 5-2 SU & 6-1 ATS in its L7 games vs. TENNESSEE

9/1/18 vs. West Virginia 14-40 L 10 L 59.5 U9/8/18 E TENN ST 59-3 W -38 W 51.5 O9/15/18 UTEP 24-0 W -33.5 L 51.5 U9/22/18 FLORIDA 21-47 L 4 L 46.5 O9/29/18 at Georgia 12-38 L 30.5 W 55 U10/13/18 at Auburn 30-24 W 15.5 W 47.5 O10/20/18 ALABAMA 21-58 L 29 L 58 O10/27/18 at South Carolina 24-27 L 10.5 W 53 U11/3/18 CHARLOTTE 14-3 W -21 L 46 U11/10/18 KENTUCKY 24-7 W 5 W 43 U11/17/18 MISSOURI 17-50 L 6 L 57.5 O11/24/18 at Vanderbilt 13-38 L 3 L 52.5 U

Tennessee should go bowling at 6 wins, but it has far too many question marks to be considered an SEC contender this season. Will Michigan transfer DL Aubrey Solomon be ruled eligible by the NCAA? Will OL Trey Smith be cleared health-wise? Is QB Jarrett Guarantano good enough to improve an offense that was last in the SEC in both rushing yards and passing efficiency? Tennessee returns all 11 starters on offense, but that’s not always a good thing with stats like that. Even if the Volunteers get off to a 3-0 start (not a guarantee with nonconference games vs. Georgia State, BYU and Tennessee-Chattanooga), they open the SEC schedule at Florida (Sept. 21), then host Georgia (Oct. 5) and Mississippi State (Oct. 12) before having to travel to Alabama (Oct. 19). Good luck with that gauntlet! After

that, it should just be a battle to get to bowl eligibility.

UNDER 6.5WESTGATE




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TENNESSEEVOLUNTEERS




2018 Yes 40.5 13.6 1.75 -5.5 6-QB, OC 33 6.59 11.93 6-DC 19.4 4.84 16.632017 35.5 6.2 0.45 1.1 7-QB, OC 27.3 5.62 12.57 7 21 5.16 17.062016 55 22.7 2.3 -14.7 9 46.9 7.48 10.91 8-DC 24.2 5.19 16.622015 54 30.3 2 -13.6 10- OC 45.2 6.62 11.03 8 15 4.62 21.46

• TENNESSEE is 8-2 ATS (L10G) - VS KENTUCKY

• TENNESSEE is 0-7 ATS (L7G) at HOME - as AP top 10

• TENNESSEE is 10-2 UNDER (L12G) at HOME - After a close SU loss 3 points or less





SCHEDULE STRENGTH

2019 SCHEDULE




VANDERBILTCOMMODORESLocation: Nashville, TN Stadium: Vanderbilt Stadium Head Coach: Derek Mason - 6th season2018 Record: 6-7Returning Starters: 12 - Offense: 7 - Defense: 5Offensive Coordinator: Gerry Gdowski *Defensive Coordinator: Jason Tarver

44.5

2.25 / 0

48.5 (#6 OF 130)

8/31/19 GEORGIA HOME TEAMS are 6-4 SU & 7-3 ATS in VAN-GEO series since 20099/7/19 at Purdue9/21/19 LSU ROAD TEAMS are 3-2 SU & 4-0 ATS in L5 games of LSU-VAN series9/28/19 N ILLINOIS10/5/19 at Ole Miss VANDERBILT is 9-11 SU but 14-6 ATS vs. OLE MISS since 199910/12/19 UNLV10/19/19 MISSOURI UNDER the total is 5-0 in L5 games of MIZ-VAN series11/2/19 at South Carolina SOUTH CAROLINA is 23-4 SU & 16-9 ATS vs. VANDERBILT since 199211/9/19 at Florida ROAD TEAMS are 13-10 SU & 15-6 ATS in FLA-VAN series since 199611/16/19 KENTUCKY UNDER the total is 6-1 in L7 games of KEN-VAN series11/23/19 E TENN ST11/30/19 at Tennessee VANDERBILT is 5-2 SU & 6-1 ATS in its L7 games vs. TENNESSEE

9/1/18 MIDDLE TENN ST 35-7 W -3 W 56 U9/8/18 NEVADA 41-10 W -10 W 60 U9/15/18 at Notre Dame 17-22 L 13.5 W 53 U9/22/18 SOUTH CAROLINA 14-37 L 1.5 L 53 U9/29/18 TENNESSEE ST 31-27 W -28.5 L 51.5 O10/6/18 at Georgia 13-41 L 25.5 L 55.5 U10/13/18 FLORIDA 27-37 L 10 T 51 O10/20/18 at Kentucky 7-14 L 10 W 44.5 U10/27/18 at Arkansas 45-31 W 1 W 52 O11/10/18 at Missouri 28-33 L 14.5 W 65 U11/17/18 OLE MISS 36-29 W -3 W 73 U11/24/18 TENNESSEE 38-13 W -3 W 52.5 U12/27/18 vs. Baylor 38-45 L -4.5 L 56.5 O

Vandy might be subpar by SEC standards, but it has enough talent that it should be able to get Over this low win total. QB Riley Neal comes in from Ball State and is expected to win the starting job and has a top runner in Ke’Shawn Vaughn and some decent receivers to pick up where Kyle Shurmur left off. The defense needs help after allowing 31 or more points in five games last season, but should be good enough to post a winning record in the Commodores’ nonconference schedule: at Purdue (Sept. 7), home vs. Northern Illinois (Sept. 29), home vs. UNLV (Oct. 12) and home vs. East Tennessee State (Nov. 23). The SEC schedule is rough, of course, especially having to open vs. Georgia on Aug. 31, but Vandy should have some winnable conference games, especially late in the season against other

lower-level SEC teams like South Carolina (Nov. 2), Kentucky (Nov. 16) and Tennessee (Nov. 30).

OVER 4.5WESTGATE




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VANDERBILTCOMMODORES




2018 46.5 19.5 2.03 -1.1 7-QB, OC 36.1 7.17 13.05 5-DC 16.6 5.14 21.962017 38.5 7.5 1.38 1.4 9 31.9 6.51 12.77 7 24.4 5.13 14.112016 44 15.3 0.9 -1.7 8 30.1 6.13 13.75 7 14.8 5.23 24.542015 38.5 10 0.74 2.6 9- OC 24.1 5.26 15.88 9-DC 14.1 4.52 21.76

• VANDERBILT is 12-3 ATS (L15G) at HOME - [vs OPP] After a conference SU loss

• VANDERBILT is 2-8 ATS (L10G) - [vs OPP] AP top 5

• VANDERBILT is 20-5 UNDER (L25G) at HOME - [vs OPP] After a conference SU loss





SCHEDULE STRENGTH

2019 SCHEDULE




ALABAMACRIMSON TIDELocation: Tuscaloosa, AL Stadium: Bryant–Denny Stadium Head Coach: Nick Saban - 13th season2018 Record: 14-1Returning Starters: 12 - Offense: 6 QB - Defense: 6Offensive Coordinator: Steve Sarkisian *Defensive Coordinator: Pete Golding

72

3 / 1

44.27 (#44 OF 130)

8/31/19 vs. Duke9/7/19 NEW MEXICO ST9/14/19 at South Carolina UNDERDOGS are 2-5 SU but 5-1 ATS in L7 games of SC-ALA series9/21/19 SOUTHERN MISS ALABAMA is 9-1 SU & 7-3 ATS in its L10 games hosting SOUTHERN MISS9/28/19 OLE MISS UNDER the total is 11-6 in MIS-ALA series since 200110/12/19 at Texas A&M10/19/19 TENNESSEE ROAD TEAMS are 14-12 SU & 20-6 ATS in TEN-ALA series since 199310/26/19 ARKANSAS OVER the total is 13-8 in ALA-ARK series since 199511/9/19 LSU UNDER the total is 5-0 in L5 games of LSU-ALA series11/16/19 at Mississippi St UNDER the total is 14-6 in ALA-MSS series since 199311/23/19 W CAROLINA11/30/19 at Auburn UNDER the total is 13-8 in AUB-ALA series since 1997

9/1/18 vs. Louisville 51-14 W -22.5 W 60 O9/8/18 ARKANSAS ST 57-7 W -35.5 W 62.5 O9/15/18 at Ole Miss 62-7 W -21.5 W 70.5 U9/22/18 TEXAS A&M 45-23 W -23.5 L 58 O9/29/18 LA LAFAYETTE 56-14 W -48 L 69 O10/6/18 at Arkansas 65-31 W -34.5 L 58.5 O10/13/18 MISSOURI 39-10 W -28 W 72 U10/20/18 at Tennessee 58-21 W -29 W 58 O11/3/18 at LSU 29-0 W -13.5 W 51.5 U11/10/18 MISSISSIPPI ST 24-0 W -22 W 51 U11/17/18 THE CITADEL 50-17 W -53.5 L 62.5 O11/24/18 AUBURN 52-21 W -26 W 53 O12/1/18 vs. Georgia 35-28 W -11.5 L 62.5 O12/29/18 vs. Oklahoma 45-34 W -15 L 80.5 U1/7/19 vs. Clemson 16-44 L -5 L 57.5 O

I could make the case for either Under 11.5 or Over 11 (available at Circa in Las Vegas), but it’s more fun to find a way to fade Nick Saban and his Alabama Dynasty II. The “safer” bet is probably Over 11 as the obvious thought it that Alabama might get upset once during the regular season but it’s very unlikely to happen twice, so the worst-case scenario can be seen as a push. But with the Under 11.5, we just need that one loss to happen and it’s a winner. Granted, Bama is going to be a huge favorite in every game it plays, but we’ve seen the Tide have plenty of scares over the years and the SEC schedule is always harder than an American Ninja Warrior obstacle course. It would be a shock if Alabama was to lose before November, but a visit from LSU on Nov. 9 and a trip to Mississippi State on Nov. 16 are a

couple of landmines. In fact, if every SEC West team loses three conference games like they did last year, Alabama could even lose to rival Auburn in the regular-season finale and still play in the SEC Championship Game.

UNDER 11.5WESTGATE


2019 SOUTHEASTERN CONFERENCE WEST DIVISION


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ALABAMACRIMSON TIDE

Points Per Game 45.3 3Yards Per Point 11.5 3Plays Per Game 69.7 87Time of Possession 30:57 413rd Down Conv. % 51.9% 3Total Yards Per Game 519.2 5Yards Per Play 7.4 2Rush Attempts Per Game 39.1 60Rush Yards Per Game 199 33Yards Per Rush Attempt 5.1 24Pass Attempts Per Game 29.4 83Completion % 68.0% 7Passing Yards Per Game 320.2 7Yards Per Pass Attempt 10.9 2Turnovers 0.9 12



2018 77 49.4 5.27 -34.8 7-QB, OC 56.5 9.21 10.86 3-DC 7.1 3.94 36.312017 71 43 4.58 -26.4 6- OC 46.6 8.09 11.68 5 3.6 3.51 61.752016 73 46.9 4.56 -32.5 6-QB 49.6 7.94 11.4 5-DC 2.8 3.39 76.752015 67.5 37.8 3.37 -25 3-QB 44.2 6.91 11.42 7 6.4 3.54 34.62

• ALABAMA is 9-1 ATS (L10G) - After playing ARKANSAS

• ALABAMA is 8-17 ATS (S2000) at HOME - After SU loss

• ALABAMA is 20-5 UNDER (L25G) at HOME - [vs OPP] More than 6 days rest





SCHEDULE STRENGTH

2019 SCHEDULE




LSUTIGERSLocation: Baton Rouge, LA Stadium: Tiger Stadium Head Coach: Ed Orgeron - 4th season2018 Record: 10-3Returning Starters: 16 - Offense: 8 QB - Defense: 8Offensive Coordinator: Steve EnsmingerDefensive Coordinator: Dave Aranda

63

3 / 0.25

47.92 (#15 OF 130)

8/31/19 GA SOUTHERN9/7/19 at Texas9/14/19 NORTHWESTERN ST9/21/19 at Vanderbilt ROAD TEAMS are 3-2 SU & 4-0 ATS in L5 games of LSU-VAN series10/5/19 UTAH ST10/12/19 FLORIDA UNDER the total is 15-8 in FLA-LSU series since 199410/19/19 at Mississippi St LSU is 24-3 SU & 19-8 ATS vs. MISSISSIPPI ST since 199210/26/19 AUBURN HOME TEAMS are 16-4 SU & 13-7 ATS in LSU-AUB series since 199911/9/19 at Alabama UNDER the total is 5-0 in L5 games of LSU-ALA series11/16/19 at Ole Miss UNDERDOGS are 7-15 SU but 15-7 ATS in MIS-LSU series since 199711/23/19 ARKANSAS ARKANSAS is 8-14 SU but 14-8 ATS vs. LSU since 199711/30/19 TEXAS A&M LSU is 7-1 SU & 8-0 ATS in its L8 games vs. TEXAS A&M

9/2/18 vs. Miami Fl 33-17 W 3 W 47.5 O9/8/18 SE LOUISIANA 31-0 W -40 L 57.5 U9/15/18 at Auburn 22-21 W 10.5 W 45.5 U9/22/18 LOUISIANA TECH 38-21 W -18.5 L 51.5 O9/29/18 OLE MISS 45-16 W -11 W 59 O10/6/18 at Florida 19-27 L 1 L 44 O10/13/18 GEORGIA 36-16 W 6.5 W 50 O10/20/18 MISSISSIPPI ST 19-3 W -6 W 45 U11/3/18 ALABAMA 0-29 L 13.5 L 51.5 U11/10/18 at Arkansas 24-17 W -13 L 49.5 U11/17/18 RICE 42-10 W -41.5 L 51.5 O11/24/18 at Texas A&M 72-74 L 3 W 46.5 O1/1/19 vs. Ucf 40-32 W -7 W 58 O

The Tigers’ win total looks just about right at 9, and that’s what I found at every book I looked at (Circa offered lowest vig at even money on the Over). Like most major programs, they have 7 wins you can pretty much mark down in pen and their Over/Under comes down to how they fare in those 5 games against top competition (at Texas on Sept. 7, home vs. Florida on Oct. 12, at Mississippi State on Oct. 19, home vs. Auburn on Oct. 26 and at Alabama on Nov. 9). If LSU goes 3-2 or better in those games, they go Over, 2-3 they push on 9 wins, and it would take a disaster at 1-4 to stay Under. I think the 10-2 record is more likely than 8-4. The Tigers’ defense will be tough with eight starters back and Joe Murrow proved adequate after transferring from Ohio State and should improve with the experience gained

last year. His top six receivers are back and the LSU is loaded at running back per usual. The Tigers are going to be competitive with anyone, and if Murrow takes a big leap forward, they could be in the running for the conference and national championship.

OVER 9CIRCA




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LSUTIGERS




2018 57.5 28.7 2.27 -15.2 5-OC 41.2 6.45 11.26 5 12.5 4.18 23.722017 59.5 25.2 3.13 -17.8 6- OC 36.1 7.45 13.55 5 10.9 4.32 24.742016 64 31.7 4.19 -23.5 8 38.4 8.31 13.54 8-DC 6.7 4.12 40.92015 54.5 25.3 3.24 -17.3 9 39.3 7.7 12.86 6-DC 14 4.46 20.95

• LSU is 8-0 ATS (L8G) - VS TEXAS A&M

• LSU is 1-7 ATS (L8G) - Before playing TEXAS A&M

• LSU is 7-0 UNDER (L7G) on ROAD - [vs OPP] After SU loss





SCHEDULE STRENGTH

2019 SCHEDULE




MISSISSIPPI STBULLDOGSLocation: Starkville, MS Stadium: Davis Wade Stadium at Scott Field Head Coach: Joe Moorhead - 2nd season2018 Record: 8-5Returning Starters: 11 - Offense: 7 - Defense: 4Offensive Coordinator: Joe Moorhead *Defensive Coordinator: Bob Shoop

57.5

3.5 / 0

46.71 (#23 OF 130)

8/31/19 vs. LA Lafayette9/7/19 SOUTHERN MISS9/14/19 KANSAS ST9/21/19 KENTUCKY HOME TEAMS are 5-1 SU & 6-0 ATS in L6 games of MSS-KEN series9/28/19 at Auburn UNDER the total is 14-6 in MSS-AUB series since 199210/12/19 at Tennessee FAVORITES are 5-0 SU & ATS in L5 games of TEN-MSS series10/19/19 LSU LSU is 24-3 SU & 19-8 ATS vs. MISSISSIPPI ST since 199210/26/19 at Texas A&M HOME TEAMS are 5-1 SU & ATS in L6 games of TAM-MSS series11/2/19 at Arkansas OVER the total is 11-4 in MSS-ARK series since 200011/16/19 ALABAMA UNDER the total is 14-6 in ALA-MSS series since 199311/23/19 ABILENE CHRISTIAN11/28/19 OLE MISS ROAD TEAMS are 5-0 SU & ATS in L5 games of MSS-MIS series

9/1/18 STEPH F AUSTIN 63-6 W -47.5 W 53 O9/8/18 at Kansas St 31-10 W -6.5 W 51.5 U9/15/18 LA LAFAYETTE 56-10 W -34.5 W 63 O9/22/18 at Kentucky 7-28 L -10 L 56 U9/29/18 FLORIDA 6-13 L -6.5 L 51 U10/6/18 AUBURN 23-9 W 3 W 45 U10/20/18 at LSU 3-19 L 6 L 45 U10/27/18 TEXAS A&M 28-13 W -1 W 42.5 U11/3/18 LOUISIANA TECH 45-3 W -23 W 48.5 U11/10/18 at Alabama 0-24 L 22 L 51 U11/17/18 ARKANSAS 52-6 W -22 W 49 O11/22/18 at Ole Miss 35-3 W -12.5 W 61 U1/1/19 vs. Iowa 22-27 L -7 L 40.5 O

This is a case with a team that should end up right around its season win total and we have the opportunity to shop for the best price. Plenty of books (Westgate and Caesars in Las Vegas, PointsBet in New Jersey) have the Rebels Over/Under 7.5 with Circa offering 8. The Rebels’ defense, which allowed an SEC-best 13.2 points per game last year, should be just and good and I don’t see how they won’t won less than 7.5 games, so going Over 7.5 would be the play. However, without a bonafide No. 1 QB in place (Keytaon Thompson was the starter coming out of spring drills, but then Tommy Stevens transferred from Penn State, where he was formerly coached by current MSU coach Joe Moorhead), I’m not sure they can get to 9 wins, so Under 8 also looks like a safe bet. The Rebels should roll through nonconference games vs.

Louisiana, Southern Miss and Kansas State, but then the always tough SEC slate looms, starting with a crossover game vs. Kentucky (Sept. 21) and then a brutal stretch at Auburn (Sept. 28), at Tennessee (Oct. 12), home vs. LSU (Oct. 19) and at Texas A&M (Oct. 26). The back end of the schedule is easier, except for a visit by Alabama (Nov. 16).

OVER 7.5WESTGATE




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MISSISSIPPI STBULLDOGS


Points Per Game 13.8 2Yards Per Point 19.2 43rd Down Conv. % 27.5% 4Total Yards Per Game 263.9 1Yards Per Play 4 1Rush Yards Per Game 96.7 3Yards Per Rush Attempt 3 5Completion % 56.8% 34Passing Yards Per Game 167.2 6Yards Per Pass Attempt 5.6 2Sacks 3.1 12Turnovers 1.6 53


2018 Yes 63 32.8 3.75 -20.4 9-QB, OC 37.6 7.37 12.47 8-DC 4.8 3.62 492017 55 27.4 1.99 -13.8 7 40 6.53 12.41 6-DC 12.6 4.54 20.762016 45 15.4 1.85 -2.1 5-QB 41 7.23 12.98 5-DC 25.6 5.38 15.62015 53.5 26.9 2.91 -13.8 4 41.2 7.52 12.92 3-DC 14.3 4.62 23.55

• MISSISSIPPI ST is 13-2 ATS (L15G) at HOME - [vs OPP] More than 6 days rest

• MISSISSIPPI ST is 0-9 ATS (L9G) on ROAD - VS higher ranked team

• MISSISSIPPI ST is 5-0 UNDER (L2Y) on ROAD - with Head coach - MOORHEAD





SCHEDULE STRENGTH

2019 SCHEDULE




TEXAS A&MAGGIESLocation: College Station, TX Stadium: Kyle Field Head Coach: Jimbo Fisher - 2nd season2018 Record: 9-4Returning Starters: 11 - Offense: 7 QB - Defense: 4Offensive Coordinator: Darrell DickeyDefensive Coordinator: Mike Elko

58

2.75 / 0.25

48.94 (#5 OF 130)

8/29/19 TEXAS ST UNIV9/7/19 at Clemson UNDERDOGS are 2-1 SU & 3-0 ATS in L3 games of TAM-CLM series9/14/19 LAMAR9/21/19 AUBURN OVER the total is 5-2 in L7 games of AUB-TAM series9/28/19 vs. Arkansas10/12/19 ALABAMA10/19/19 at Ole Miss UNDER the total is 5-0 in L5 games of TAM-MIS series10/26/19 MISSISSIPPI ST HOME TEAMS are 5-1 SU & ATS in L6 games of TAM-MSS series11/2/19 TX-SAN ANTONIO11/16/19 SOUTH CAROLINA ROAD TEAMS are 3-2 SU & 4-1 ATS in L5 games of TAM-SC series11/23/19 at Georgia11/30/19 at LSU LSU is 7-1 SU & 8-0 ATS in its L8 games vs. TEXAS A&M

8/30/18 NORTHWESTERN ST 59-7 W -46 W 64.5 O9/8/18 CLEMSON 26-28 L 11.5 W 49 O9/15/18 LA MONROE 48-10 W -28 W 65.5 U9/22/18 at Alabama 23-45 L 23.5 W 58 O9/29/18 vs. Arkansas 24-17 W -19 L 56.5 U10/6/18 KENTUCKY 20-14 W -5.5 W 49 U10/13/18 at South Carolina 26-23 W -2.5 W 49.5 U10/27/18 at Mississippi St 13-28 L 1 L 42.5 U11/3/18 at Auburn 24-28 L 3.5 L 46.5 O11/10/18 OLE MISS 38-24 W -13 W 67.5 U11/17/18 UAB 41-20 W -16.5 W 46.5 O11/24/18 LSU 74-72 W -3 L 46.5 O12/31/18 vs. Nc State 52-13 W -7.5 W 58 O

In my mind, this is the “What If” team of 2019. What if RB Tryveon Williams, TE Jace Sternberger and C Erik McCoy didn’t leave early for the NFL? What if QB Nick Starkel didn’t transfer to Arkansas? Seriously, I think A&M would be in the national title conversation. As it is, their season win Over/Under has been set at 7.5, but I there’s enough talent left in the cupboard for coach Jimbo Fisher to still get this team to at least 8 wins and go Over. I would prefer Starkel, but QB Kellen Mond was adequate last year and should improve on his 57 percent completion rate, 24 TD passes (6 came in the 7OT win over LSU) and 9 INTs. He can also helped the ground game, but the Aggies should be fine in replacing Williams. The defense also will be tough and aided by a top recruiting class, though the best pro prospect might be All-American punter Braden Mann. The

big obstacle for A&M is a brutal schedule that includes a trip to defending national champ Clemson on Sept. 7, though the Aggies get Alabama (Oct. 12) and Mississippi State (Oct. 26) at home. Unless it loses all those tough games, A&M might already be Over the 7.5-win total by the time it has to close the regular season at Georgia (Nov. 23) and at LSU (Nov. 30).

OVER 7.5WESTGATE




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TEXAS A&MAGGIES




2018 Yes 58.5 27.8 2.34 -15.2 8-QB, OC 45.2 7.39 12.54 8-DC 17.3 5.04 17.372017 49 17.5 1.57 -7 5-QB 37.3 6.37 12.24 7 19.8 4.8 17.082016 54 25.6 2.5 -14 6-QB, OC 42 7.35 12.78 7 16.4 4.85 23.962015 51 22.7 2.01 -10 8 36.5 6.59 13.55 8-DC 13.8 4.58 23.24

• TEXAS A&M is 6-1 ATS (L2Y) at HOME - with Head coach - FISHER

• TEXAS A&M is 0-8 ATS (L8G) - VS LSU

• TEXAS A&M is 7-0 OVER (L7G) - Before playing MISSISSIPPI





SCHEDULE STRENGTH

2019 SCHEDULE




AUBURNTIGERSLocation: Auburn, AL Stadium: Pat Dye Field at Jordan–Hare Stadium Head Coach: Gus Malzahn - 7th season2018 Record: 8-5Returning Starters: 14 - Offense: 7 - Defense: 7Offensive Coordinator: Kenny Dillingham *Defensive Coordinator: Kevin Steele / Travis Williams

58.5

3 / 0

50.33 (#3 OF 130)

8/31/19 vs. Oregon9/7/19 TULANE9/14/19 KENT ST9/21/19 at Texas A&M OVER the total is 5-2 in L7 games of AUB-TAM series9/28/19 MISSISSIPPI ST UNDER the total is 14-6 in MSS-AUB series since 199210/5/19 at Florida AUBURN is 4-1 SU & 5-0 ATS in its L5 games vs. FLORIDA10/19/19 at Arkansas FAVORITES are 6-0 SU & ATS in L6 games of AUB-ARK series10/26/19 at LSU HOME TEAMS are 16-4 SU & 13-7 ATS in LSU-AUB series since 199911/2/19 OLE MISS AUBURN is 15-4 SU & 12-5 ATS vs. OLE MISS since 200011/16/19 GEORGIA HOME TEAMS are 13-7 SU & 14-6 ATS in GEO-AUB series since 199911/23/19 SAMFORD11/30/19 ALABAMA UNDER the total is 13-8 in AUB-ALA series since 1997

9/1/18 vs. Washington 21-16 W -1.5 W 50.5 U9/8/18 ALABAMA ST 63-9 W -61.5 L 69.5 O9/15/18 LSU 21-22 L -10.5 L 45.5 U9/22/18 ARKANSAS 34-3 W -29.5 W 58.5 U9/29/18 SOUTHERN MISS 24-13 W -27.5 L 50.5 U10/6/18 at Mississippi St 9-23 L -3 L 45 U10/13/18 TENNESSEE 24-30 L -15.5 L 47.5 O10/20/18 at Ole Miss 31-16 W -5.5 W 63.5 U11/3/18 TEXAS A&M 28-24 W -3.5 W 46.5 O11/10/18 at Georgia 10-27 L 13.5 L 52.5 U11/17/18 LIBERTY 53-0 W -30.5 W 65.5 U11/24/18 at Alabama 21-52 L 26 L 53 O12/28/18 vs. Purdue 63-14 W -3.5 W 58.5 O

Auburn fans seems to have a love/hate relationship with coach Gus Malzahn and he’s on the hot seat after an 8-4 season. Optimism is high with a pair of “freshman” quarterbacks battling for the starting job in red-shirt freshman Joey Gatewood (who reminds people of Cam Newton) and true freshman Bo Nix (a five-star recruit and son of former Auburn QB Patrick Nix). No matter which one wins the job (or if they share it), the question is if maybe they’re a year away from taking this team to the next level. Regardless, there’s too much talent, especially on the offensive and defensive lines to see this team going 7-5, so it’s more likely to go 9-3 and Over its win total. The Tigers face a big test early Aug. 31 vs. Oregon. They should roll through nonconference games vs. Tulane and Kent State before

getting into SEC play at Texas A&M (Sept. 21) and home vs. Mississippi State (Sept. 28). We should truly have the answers by then as to if Auburn is back to being a top contender.

OVER 8CIRCA




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AUBURNTIGERS




2018 59 24.3 1.8 -15.8 6-QB 36.7 6.38 11.85 7 12.4 4.58 25.542017 62.5 39.9 4.35 -23.6 8- OC 44.5 8.1 13.11 7 4.6 3.75 55.82016 57.5 32.1 3.01 -17.1 6-QB 40.2 7.28 12.99 6-DC 8.1 4.27 37.792015 50 18.4 1.71 -7.7 4-QB 36.1 6.45 12.24 8-DC 17.7 4.74 20.4

• AUBURN is 6-0-1 ATS (L7G) - Before playing TEXAS A&M

• AUBURN is 3-12 ATS (L15G) - OU line of 40 or less

• AUBURN is 13-2 OVER (L15G) - [vs OPP] After a conference SU loss





SCHEDULE STRENGTH

2019 SCHEDULE




OLE MISSREBELSLocation: Oxford, MS Stadium: Vaught–Hemingway Stadium at Hollingsworth Field Head Coach: Matt Luke - 3rd season2018 Record: 5-7Returning Starters: 13 - Offense: 3 - Defense: 10Offensive Coordinator: Rich Rodriguez *Defensive Coordinator: Mike MacIntyre *

45.5

3 / -0.75

48.31 (#9 OF 130)

8/31/19 at Memphis HOME TEAMS are 6-2 SU & 6-1 ATS in L8 games of MEM-MIS series9/7/19 ARKANSAS UNDERDOGS are 5-3 SU & 8-0 ATS in L8 games of MIS-ARK series9/14/19 SE LOUISIANA9/21/19 CALIFORNIA9/28/19 at Alabama UNDER the total is 11-6 in MIS-ALA series since 200110/5/19 VANDERBILT VANDERBILT is 9-11 SU but 14-6 ATS vs. OLE MISS since 199910/12/19 at Missouri FAVORITES are 3-0 SU & ATS in L3 games of MIZ-MIS series10/19/19 TEXAS A&M UNDER the total is 5-0 in L5 games of TAM-MIS series11/2/19 at Auburn AUBURN is 15-4 SU & 12-5 ATS vs. OLE MISS since 200011/9/19 NEW MEXICO ST11/16/19 LSU UNDERDOGS are 7-15 SU but 15-7 ATS in MIS-LSU series since 199711/28/19 at Mississippi St ROAD TEAMS are 5-0 SU & ATS in L5 games of MSS-MIS series

9/1/18 vs. Texas Tech 47-27 W -2.5 W 72 O9/8/18 S ILLINOIS 76-41 W -27.5 W 65.5 O9/15/18 ALABAMA 7-62 L 21.5 L 70.5 U9/22/18 KENT ST 38-17 W -28.5 L 76 U9/29/18 at LSU 16-45 L 11 L 59 O10/6/18 LA MONROE 70-21 W -24 W 76 O10/13/18 at Arkansas 37-33 W -6.5 L 67.5 O10/20/18 AUBURN 16-31 L 5.5 L 63.5 U11/3/18 SOUTH CAROLINA 44-48 L -2.5 L 69 O11/10/18 at Texas A&M 24-38 L 13 L 67.5 U11/17/18 at Vanderbilt 29-36 L 3 L 73 U11/22/18 MISSISSIPPI ST 3-35 L 12.5 L 61 U

It’s not often that the biggest offseason news for a college program is the hiring of offensive and defensive coordinators, but coach Luke May brought in former West Virginia and Arizona coach Rich Rodriguez as his offensive coordinator and former Colorado coach Mike MacIntyre as his defensive coordinator. Rodriguez could have success right away with QB Matt Corral, plus RB Scottie Phillips and a stable of running backs, but they’re playing behind an inexperienced offensive line and lost three top targets to the NFL. However, that’s nothing compared to the work cut out for MacIntyre as the Rebels’ defense allowed an SEC-worst 36.2 points per game last season and needs a major overhaul and influx of talent. Even if the Rebels coast through their nonconference schedule (Memphis and Cal along with Southeast

Louisiana and New Mexico State), it’s going to be hard to find wins on the SEC slate. Ole Miss would have to get wins over Arkansas (Sept. 7) and Vanderbilt (Oct. 5) to have a chance to go Over its win total and even then it’s no guarantee. Five wins looks like the ceiling, though the Rebels’ future looks brighter with the coaching changes.

UNDER 5WESTGATE




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OLE MISSREBELS


Points Per Game 35.7 107Yards Per Point 13.1 963rd Down Conv. % 40.4% 80Total Yards Per Game 469.2 116Yards Per Play 6.1 107Rush Yards Per Game 219 110Yards Per Rush Attempt 5.1 104Completion % 63.4% 105Passing Yards Per Game 250.2 96Yards Per Pass Attempt 7.9 99Sacks 2 71Turnovers 1.1 111


2018 44.5 15 3.01 -6.6 8 41.9 8.46 14.46 7 26.9 5.45 15.492017 Yes 48.5 12.2 2.57 -3.9 5-QB, OC 40 7.99 13.39 6-DC 27.8 5.42 14.572016 46 19.1 2.39 -15.3 5 44.6 7.59 12.81 5 25.5 5.2 15.252015 59.5 33.1 3.9 -18.7 9-QB 47.4 8.17 12.65 7 14.3 4.27 23.76

• OLE MISS is 6-1 ATS (L7G) - [vs OPP] 1000 or more travel miles

• OLE MISS is 2-13 ATS (L15G) on ROAD - Favorite of 7 or less points

• OLE MISS is 8-0 UNDER (L8G) - VS lower ranked team





SCHEDULE STRENGTH

2019 SCHEDULE




ARKANSASRAZORBACKSLocation: Fayetteville, AR Stadium: Donald W. Reynolds Razorback StadiumHead Coach: Chad Morris - 2nd season2018 Record: 2-10Returning Starters: 12 - Offense: 6 - Defense: 6Offensive Coordinator: Joe CraddockDefensive Coordinator: John Chavis

41.5

2.25 / -0.25

46.44 (#25 OF 130)

8/31/19 PORTLAND ST9/7/19 at Ole Miss UNDERDOGS are 5-3 SU & 8-0 ATS in L8 games of MIS-ARK series9/14/19 COLORADO ST9/21/19 SAN JOSE ST9/28/19 vs. Texas A&M10/12/19 at Kentucky10/19/19 AUBURN FAVORITES are 6-0 SU & ATS in L6 games of AUB-ARK series10/26/19 at Alabama OVER the total is 13-8 in ALA-ARK series since 199511/2/19 MISSISSIPPI ST OVER the total is 11-4 in MSS-ARK series since 200011/9/19 W KENTUCKY11/23/19 at LSU ARKANSAS is 8-14 SU but 14-8 ATS vs. LSU since 199711/30/19 MISSOURI HOME TEAMS are 4-1 SU & 5-0 ATS in L5 games of MIZ-ARK series

9/1/18 E ILLINOIS 55-20 W -34.5 W 60.5 O9/8/18 at Colorado St 27-34 L -14 L 70 U9/15/18 NORTH TEXAS 17-44 L -5 L 63 U9/22/18 at Auburn 3-34 L 29.5 L 58.5 U9/29/18 vs. Texas A&M 17-24 L 19 W 56.5 U10/6/18 ALABAMA 31-65 L 34.5 W 58.5 O10/13/18 OLE MISS 33-37 L 6.5 W 67.5 O10/20/18 TULSA 23-0 W -7 W 53.5 U10/27/18 VANDERBILT 31-45 L -1 L 52 O11/10/18 LSU 17-24 L 13 W 49.5 U11/17/18 at Mississippi St 6-52 L 22 L 49 O11/23/18 at Missouri 0-38 L 24 L 58.5 U

Season 1 didn’t go as planned under coach Chad Morris as his offense never got untracked and the defense wasn’t any better as the Razorbacks went a woeful 2-10. There’s renewed hope with transfer QBs Ben Hicks (from Morris’ former school at SMU) and Nick Starkel (from Texas A&M) along with redshirt freshman Connor Noland. Whoever wins the job should have plenty of young weapons to work with as they all learn Morris’ system. The schedule works in favor of a successful start to this season by opening vs. Portland State and then facing Mississippi (Sept. 7) in a chance to stay out of the SEC basement. Even if the Razorbacks suffer a loss in the conference opener, they still have winnable games vs. Colorado State and San Jose State before returning to league play. Even though they’re not expected

to compete with the likes of Auburn, Alabama and Mississippi State (who they face in succession on Oct. 19, 26 and Nov. 2), the Razorbacks put scares into Texas A&M, Ole Miss and LSU last year and should be more capable of a few upsets this season to get to bowl eligibility at 6 wins.

OVER 5.5CAESARS




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ARKANSASRAZORBACKS


Points Per Game 36.1 110Yards Per Point 11.6 1233rd Down Conv. % 39.0% 58Total Yards Per Game 418.3 77Yards Per Play 6 96Rush Yards Per Game 171.5 73Yards Per Rush Attempt 4.3 62Completion % 62.9% 97Passing Yards Per Game 246.7 88Yards Per Pass Attempt 8.8 118Sacks 2.2 57Turnovers 1 118


2018 Yes 36 4.9 0.8 -1.3 9-OC 30.2 5.94 13.29 8-DC 25.3 5.15 14.022017 40 8.7 1.05 -0.6 7 35.8 6.64 12.39 6-DC 27.1 5.59 14.012016 48 15.6 1.07 -8 5-QB 37.9 7.13 13.45 9 22.3 6.06 16.822015 56.5 25.5 2.75 -13.3 9- OC 43.3 8.01 12.61 6 17.8 5.26 19.51

• ARKANSAS is 12-3 ATS (L15G) - After playing AUBURN

• ARKANSAS is 0-8 ATS (L8G) on ROAD - Favorite of more than 7 points

• ARKANSAS is 9-1 OVER (L10G) on ROAD - as AP top 25



SUN BELTCONFERENCE PREVIEW


EAST DIVISIONAPPALACHIAN ST 46 3 0.75 31.98 116 9.5 2.5 6.9 1.1TROY 39.5 2.5 0.75 31.27 121 8.0 4.0 5.5 2.5GA SOUTHERN 38 3.5 0.25 35.46 92 6.9 5.1 5.1 2.9GEORGIA ST 26.5 2.25 0.75 35.58 88 3.5 8.5 2.5 5.5CSTL CAROLINA 27 2.25 0.25 30.65 123 4.6 7.4 2.3 5.7

WEST DIVISIONARKANSAS ST 38 3.75 0.25 32.71 110 7.9 4.1 5.7 2.3LA MONROE 32 2 -0.5 35.52 90 5.0 7.0 3.8 4.2LA LAFAYETTE 33.5 2.25 -0.25 32.19 113 5.8 6.2 3.8 4.2TEXAS ST 29 2 -0.75 35.79 84 4.3 7.7 3.1 4.9S ALABAMA 21 2.75 -0.75 34.44 98 2.4 9.6 1.2 6.8



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GAMEEAST DIVISION CHAMPION APP ST APP ST APP ST TROY APP ST APP ST APP ST APP ST


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WRITTEN BY BRUCE MARSHALL FROM THE GOLD SHEET - @BRUCEAMARSHALL


Appalachian State and Arkansas StateThough what are perhaps the two best teams in the loop (App State and Troy) live in the same East Division, we suspect it will be the Mountaineers and Red Wolves squaring off for the Belt title in December. One possible advantage for Ark State is stability; HC Blake Anderson, though having opportunities to move up from Jonesboro is recent years, has decided to stay put for the time being, while both App State and Troy are experiencing one of the realities of the “top tier” of low-major football, as their successful coaches have moved up the college food chain (App’s Scott Satterfield to Louisville, Troy’s Neal Brown to West Virginia). On the surface, the Mountaineers should be a heavy favorite in the East, with almost all (nine starters) of an offense, including versatile QB Zac Thomas (21 TDP in 2018) and most of his complementary weapons, back from scoring over 37 ppg last year for Satterfield, plus many pieces of a nationally-ranked defense. New HC Eli Drinkwitz, most recently the OC at NC State, has been on the fast track to a head coaching spot for a few years. Meanwhile, Ark State looks the class of the West as it shoots for a ninth straight bowl, though it will be replacing several key cogs, including multi-year starting QB Justice Hansen. The Red Wolves also get expected top West contender Louisiana at home on Oct. 17 in what looms as another West showdown.

Texas StateUnless you’re driving between San Antonio and Austin on I-35, and notice Bobcat Stadium out to the west, Texas State probably doesn’t cross your conscious thought. And no wonder, as the Bobcats have yet to reach a bowl game since jumping up to the FBS ranks earlier in the decade, and just moved out HC Everett Withers after his three-year experiment in San Marcos netted just 7 wins. But the Bobcats were a bit more competitive a year ago than in the previous two years for Withers, at least until the offense went into eclipse down the stretch, landing on seven points in each of three losses to close the season. Enter Jake Spavital, one of the young (33) whippersnapper generation of coaches weaned on the spread offense at Texas A&M, Cal, and West Virginia. And while he’s yet to be a head coach, his background on offense would seem to be what the doctor ordered for a Bobcat offense ranked near the bottom of FBS stats. The recruitment of vet coach and “jet sweep” guru Bob Stitt as OC looks a shrewd move, as was adding Stitt’s old QB Gresch Jensen as a transfer from Montana. Ten starters are also back from a defense that more than held its own for Withers and includes the two top returning tacklers in the Belt. Before the offense cratered last November, TSU was offering good value as a dog and at one stage covered four numbers in a row. Assuredly offered at a deep discount, at least early in the season, the Bobcats might provide decent value.

Coastal CarolinaSometimes new entries into the FBS ranks can make noise for a while before reality sets in and the losses begin to mount. So it goes at Coastal Carolina, which has held its own while transitioning to FBS the last two seasons but now with most of a roster added since its last days of success in FCS. Moreover, there’s a new coach, Jamey Chadwell, promoted from OC after Joe Moglia surprisingly retired in January. Chadwell is a familiar face with the Chants, as he served as interim HC when Moglia was out on medical leave two years ago, and recently the OC, but there is some NCAA baggage left from his previous stop at Charleston Southern, which has created a few extra concerns in Conway. Spring work suggested neither of the new QBs, sophs Fred Payton or Bryan Carpenter (who have each had previous brief looks with the Chants), could claim the job, suggesting Chadwell might be rotating QBs, often an awkward approach. The defense was soft a season ago and one of the worst in the nation against the rush. In a transition year at Myrtle Beach, and competing in the tougher East half of the loop, Coastal might be far adrift in the Belt.

2019 SUN BELT CONFERENCE PREVIEW

THE FAVORITES

LIVE DOG

DEAD MONEY

BIG GAMES ON THE BOARDGeorgia Southern at LSU, Aug. 31It’s not a Sun Belt game, but it’s the highest-profile intersectional involving a conference team. And the underrated Eagles, the only Belt team to beat App State last season and off of a 10-3, bowl-winning campaign, might catch the Tigers at the right time, as LSU could be excused for keeping a few things under wraps and looking ahead before the showdown at Texas the following week. Remember, Troy famously went into Baton Rouge two years ago and pulled a 24-21 upset, so it’s not unheard of for a Belt team to pull a major surprise against the SEC.

Louisiana at Arkansas State, Oct. 17This clash decided the West title a year ago, as the Ragin’ Cajuns pulled out a wild 47-43 verdict in Lafayette that gave them the tie-breaker over the Red Wolves for the West crown. This year’s rematch, however, comes in Jonesboro, and by the time we get

to midseason, we can assume both of these sides will have been able to figure out the QB positions that were left open by graduation. Note that the home team has won and covered five straight meetings in this series.

Appalachian State at Troy, Nov. 30No surprise here if the winner claims the crown in the East, which was the case a year ago when the Mounties’ 21-10 win at Boone provided the tie-breaker to give App the East title. Both of the new coaches (Eli Drinkwitz for the Mounties, Chip Lindsey with the Trojans) have been decorated offensive coordinators in recent years. And since each figures to have a chance in their nonconference games as well (especially App State), there’s a possibility of ramifications for the Group of 5’s “New Year’s Six” bid as well.




SCHEDULE STRENGTH

2019 SCHEDULE




2019 SUN BELT CONFERENCE EAST DIVISION

APPALACHIAN STMOUNTAINEERSLocation: Boone, NC Stadium: Kidd Brewer Stadium Head Coach: Eliah Drinkwitz - 1st season2018 Record: 11-2Returning Starters: 16 - Offense: 10 QB - Defense: 6Offensive Coordinator: Eliah Drinkwitz *Defensive Coordinator: Ted Roof *

46

3 / 0.75

31.98 (#116 OF 130)

8/31/19 E TENN ST9/7/19 CHARLOTTE9/21/19 at North Carolina9/28/19 COASTAL CAROLINA10/9/19 at LA Lafayette ROAD TEAMS are 1-5 SU but 5-1 ATS in L6 games of APST-LAL series10/19/19 LA MONROE OVER the total is 4-0 in L4 games of APST-LAM series10/26/19 at S Alabama HOME TEAMS are 2-1 SU & 3-0 ATS in L3 games of APST-USA series10/31/19 GA SOUTHERN FAVORITES are 4-1 SU & ATS in L5 games of GSU-APST series11/9/19 at South Carolina11/16/19 at Georgia St FAVORITES are 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS in L5 games of APST-GAST series11/23/19 TEXAS ST UNIV UNDER the total is 3-0 in L3 games of APST-TSU series11/30/19 at Troy TROY is 1-2 SU but 3-0 ATS in its L3 games vs. APPALACHIAN ST

9/1/18 at Penn St 38-45 L 24.5 W 53.5 O9/8/18 at Charlotte 45-9 W -14.5 W 48.5 O9/22/18 GARDNER WEBB 72-7 W -44.5 W 56 O9/29/18 S ALABAMA 52-7 W -26 W 56 O10/9/18 at Arkansas St 35-9 W -9.5 W 59.5 U10/20/18 LA LAFAYETTE 27-17 W -25 L 64.5 U10/25/18 at Ga Southern 14-34 L -11 L 47.5 O11/3/18 at Coastal Carolina 23-7 W -13.5 W 53 U11/10/18 at Texas St Univ 38-7 W -19.5 W 46.5 U11/17/18 GEORGIA ST 45-17 W -27 W 55.5 O11/24/18 TROY 21-10 W -12 L 45 U12/1/18 LA LAFAYETTE 30-19 W -17.5 L 55 U12/15/18 vs. Middle Tenn St 45-13 W -6.5 W 49 O

The Mounties have not won fewer than nine games the past four seasons and doubt that trend ends in 2019. Of course, App is proceeding minus wildly-successful HC Scott Satterfield, who has moved to Louisville, and the Mounties went outside of the program to find his successor in Eli Drinkwitz, who has made his mark in recent years as an OC at Boise State and NC State. The one possible concern is that Drinkwitz offenses have always been pass-oriented, as opposed to the run-heavy Satterfield approach, but with nine starters back on offense, including dual-threat QB Zac Thomas, can expect Drinkwitz to marry some of the best of the Satterfield offense with some of his more progressive concepts that saw his Wolfpack offense rank in the top 20 in pass attempts and top 10 in completions the past two seasons. It could be a potent brew in Boone, especially with most of the skill-position weapons still in the fold, including slashing RB Darrynton Evans (1187 YR in 2018) and almost all of the receiving corps, led by deep threat Corey Sutton. Meanwhile,

new, and veteran, DC Ted Roof (recently at Georgia Tech) is not going to tinker too much with a defense that ranked sixth nationally a year ago and will continue to align in 3-4 looks, featuring established playmakers at every level. App’s only serious non-Belt tilt is at Mack Brown’s rebuilding North Carolina, and the Mounties figure to be favored in all of their 12 games except perhaps at Chapel Hill, and maybe at Troy in the regular-season finale.

OVER 9FANDUEL



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APPALACHIAN STMOUNTAINEERS




2018 48.5 22 2.17 -5.5 6 37.2 6.49 11.61 5-DC 15.2 4.31 18.282017 42 10.4 0.88 1.6 7 31.4 6.39 13.82 7 21 5.51 17.262016 46.5 15.3 1.68 -6 6 30.3 6.4 14.58 9 15 4.72 21.122015 41.5 17.8 1.95 -4.2 10 34.6 6.74 13.45 10 16.7 4.79 19.24

• APPALACHIAN ST is 7-0 ATS (L7G) on ROAD - [vs OPP] After a conference SU win

• APPALACHIAN ST is 2-8 ATS (L10G) at HOME - [vs OPP] After SU win

• APPALACHIAN ST is 8-2 UNDER (L10G) on ROAD - More than 6 days rest





SCHEDULE STRENGTH

2019 SCHEDULE




TROYTROJANSLocation: Troy, AL Stadium: Veterans Memorial Stadium at Larry Blakeney Field Head Coach: Chip Lindsey - 1st season2018 Record: 10-3Returning Starters: 13 - Offense: 7 QB - Defense: 6Offensive Coordinator: Ryan Pugh *Defensive Coordinator: Brandon Hall *

39.5

2.5 / 0.75

31.27 (#121 OF 130)

8/31/19 CAMPBELL9/14/19 SOUTHERN MISS9/21/19 at Akron9/28/19 ARKANSAS ST ARKANSAS ST is 4-2 SU & 5-1 ATS in its L6 games vs. TROY10/5/19 at Missouri HOME TEAMS are 3-0 SU & ATS in L3 games of MIZ-TRO series10/16/19 S ALABAMA ROAD TEAMS are 5-2 SU & 6-1 ATS in L7 games of TRO-USA series10/26/19 at Georgia St11/2/19 at Coastal Carolina11/9/19 GA SOUTHERN GA SOUTHERN is 3-2 SU & 4-1 ATS in its L5 games vs. TROY11/16/19 at Texas St Univ11/23/19 at LA Lafayette TROY is 5-1 ATS in its L6 games at LA LAFAYETTE11/30/19 APPALACHIAN ST TROY is 1-2 SU but 3-0 ATS in its L3 games vs. APPALACHIAN ST

9/1/18 BOISE ST 20-56 L 8.5 L 48.5 O9/8/18 FLORIDA AM 59-7 W -34 W 59.5 O9/15/18 at Nebraska 24-19 W 10 W 55 U9/22/18 at La Monroe 35-27 W -4.5 W 58.5 O9/29/18 COASTAL CAROLINA 45-21 W -14 W 56 O10/4/18 GEORGIA ST 37-20 W -17 T 55.5 O10/13/18 at Liberty 16-22 L -10.5 L 62 U10/23/18 at S Alabama 38-17 W -12 W 54.5 O11/3/18 LA LAFAYETTE 26-16 W -7 W 64 U11/10/18 at Ga Southern 35-21 W -2.5 W 44.5 O11/17/18 TEXAS ST UNIV 12-7 W -22.5 L 47.5 U11/24/18 at Appalachian St 10-21 L 12 W 45 U12/22/18 vs. Buffalo 42-32 W 2.5 W 52 O

It looks to us like the oddsmakers are reading an awful lot into the departure of successful HC Neal Brown (to West Virginia) and anticipating a worst-case scenario for the Trojans in a potentially tricky non-league slate. But there are plenty of Belt insiders who believe that new HC Chip Lindsey, formerly Gus Malzahn’s OC at Auburn and hired off of the new Les Miles staff at Kansas, is a very good fit at the school that sits off of George Wallace Drive in Southeastern Bama, especially considering Chip’s deep ties in the region. One of last year’s QBs, Sawyer Smith, transferred to Kentucky in summer, but Lindsey still has Kalen Barker, who was completing a school-record 73 percent of his passes last season before getting injured. (Smith relieved Barker in the rousing bowl win over Buffalo.) The top three receivers from last year have graduated, but juco additions Reggie Todd and Khalil McClain are well regarded. Still, preventing a steep decline should be what figures to be another robust defense that has keyed much of the recent success and ranked 28th nationally in scoring last season, not bad for a Belt entry. Lindsey also promoted a holdover from Brown’s staff, Brandon Hall, as the new DC, suggesting valuable

continuity with schemes and familiarity with personnel. Yes, there are some potential banana peels in the non-league slate against Southern Miss and at Missouri, plus a road game at Akron, but remember, the Trojans have won 31 games the past three years, won games at Nebraska and LSU, and posted a .795 winning mark, matching UCF”s over the same span as the best of any non-Power 5 program. Considering some of the soft spots in the Belt schedule, getting to at least 7 wins seems quite reasonable.

OVER 6.5FANDUEL




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TROYTROJANS


Points Per Game 23.2 37Yards Per Point 15.2 463rd Down Conv. % 39.9% 73Total Yards Per Game 353 32Yards Per Play 4.9 26Rush Yards Per Game 133.8 27Yards Per Rush Attempt 3.4 11Completion % 58.8% 63Passing Yards Per Game 219.2 51Yards Per Pass Attempt 7.4 67Sacks 3 16Turnovers 2.2 7


2018 40 10.2 1.08 0.9 7-OC 30 6.02 13.03 6 19.9 4.94 17.162017 42.5 12 1.27 1.8 8 31.2 6.18 13.25 6 19.2 4.91 17.852016 39.5 12.4 0.79 1 6 34.3 5.82 12.81 7 21.8 5.03 16.662015 Yes 30 4.2 0.58 12.3 7 28.9 5.61 12.9 6-DC 24.7 5.03 15.21

• TROY is 7-0 ATS (L7G) on ROAD - Conference games

• TROY is 1-13-1 ATS (L15G) at HOME - In October

• TROY is 14-1 OVER (L15G) on ROAD - VS SEC





SCHEDULE STRENGTH

2019 SCHEDULE




GEORGIA SOUTHERNEAGLESLocation: Statesboro, GA Stadium: Allen E. Paulson Stadium Head Coach: Chad Lunsford - 2nd season2018 Record: 10-3Returning Starters: 14 - Offense: 7 QB - Defense: 7Offensive Coordinator: Bob DeBesseDefensive Coordinator: Scot Sloan

38

3.5 / 0.25

35.46 (#92 OF 130)

8/31/19 at LSU9/7/19 MAINE9/14/19 at Minnesota9/28/19 LA LAFAYETTE10/3/19 at S Alabama GA SOUTHERN is 5-0 SU & ATS in its L5 games vs. S ALABAMA10/19/19 COASTAL CAROLINA10/26/19 NEW MEXICO ST ROAD TEAMS are 4-1 SU & ATS in L5 games of GSU-NMS series10/31/19 at Appalachian St FAVORITES are 4-1 SU & ATS in L5 games of GSU-APST series11/9/19 at Troy GA SOUTHERN is 3-2 SU & 4-1 ATS in its L5 games vs. TROY11/16/19 LA MONROE11/23/19 at Arkansas St11/30/19 GEORGIA ST

9/1/18 S CAROLINA ST 37-6 W -27.5 W 46.5 U9/8/18 MASSACHUSETTS 34-13 W -1.5 W 60.5 U9/15/18 at Clemson 7-38 L 32 W 49.5 U9/29/18 ARKANSAS ST 28-21 W 3 W 53 U10/6/18 S ALABAMA 48-13 W -12 W 56.5 O10/11/18 at Texas St Univ 15-13 W -16.5 L 51.5 U10/20/18 at New Mexico St 48-31 W -10 W 52.5 O10/25/18 APPALACHIAN ST 34-14 W 11 W 47.5 O11/3/18 at La Monroe 25-44 L -7.5 L 60.5 O11/10/18 TROY 21-35 L 2.5 L 44.5 O11/17/18 at Coastal Carolina 41-17 W -7 W 53.5 O11/24/18 at Georgia St 35-14 W -10 W 58.5 U12/15/18 vs. E Michigan 23-21 W -2.5 L 45.5 U

As is often the case, the Sun Belt figures to be a case of haves and have-nots once again in 2019, and worth noting that three teams from the East half all reached double-digit wins last season (helped each by an extra win in a bowl game). While few were paying attention last fall, Georgia Southern was one of those double-digit winners, which marked quite a turnaround from 2017’s 2-10 mark. Chad Lunsford had been promoted late in 2017 to succeed the out-of-depth Tyson Summers as HC, and Lunsford knew all along that the Eagles ought to return to their roots from the Paul Johnson, Jeff Monken, and Willie Fritz eras and start running the option once again. Which GSU did a year ago, unleashing skittery QB Shai Werts, who gained over 900 YR and almost ran for more yards than he passed, as the Eagles would rank tops in the Belt and 7th nationally on the ground (266 ypg). The flip side to the Navy-look also means that GSU rarely passes the ball (ranking 129th thru the air), but the option runs so well for vet coordinator Bob DeBesse (who moved last year from New Mexico, where rushing numbers subsequently dropped off the map), so GSU remains a very awkward matchup in a

world of spread offenses and Air Raids in the Belt. Enough playmakers also return from a defense that allowed only 3.9 yards per carry and ranked a respectable 37th nationally vs. the run that a big dropoff from last season seems unlikely, even with Werts having to rely upon mostly new weapons in the other skill positions for the O. A worst-case scenario that concedes losses at LSU, Minnesota, App State (which GSU beat in 2018), and Troy still gives the Eagles some wiggle room to exceed 6.5 wins.

OVER 6.5FANDUEL




TOP TRENDS FOR 2019







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GEORGIA SOUTHERNEAGLES


Points Per Game 22.8 32Yards Per Point 16.4 233rd Down Conv. % 38.9% 57Total Yards Per Game 374.3 46Yards Per Play 5.5 58Rush Yards Per Game 142.3 35Yards Per Rush Attempt 4 46Completion % 63.0% 100Passing Yards Per Game 232 65Yards Per Pass Attempt 7.4 70Sacks 1.9 78Turnovers 2.1 13


2018 38.5 10.8 0.66 4.4 9-QB, OC 31 6.01 11.22 9-DC 20.2 5.35 17.72017 25 -6.2 -1.26 19.5 5-QB, OC 23.3 5.03 15.09 5 29.5 6.28 13.252016 Yes 31.5 3.3 -0.39 12.3 7- OC 29.3 5.4 13.34 6-DC 26.1 5.79 14.822015 40.5 14.1 1.19 -1.2 5 33.7 6.5 12.67 8 19.7 5.31 16.63

• GEORGIA SOUTHERN is 8-2 ATS (L10G) on ROAD - Underdog of more than 20 points

• GEORGIA SOUTHERN is 1-6 ATS (L7G) on ROAD - [vs OPP] More than 6 days rest

• GEORGIA SOUTHERN is 12-3 UNDER (L15G) - In September





SCHEDULE STRENGTH

2019 SCHEDULE




GEORGIA STPANTHERSLocation: Atlanta, GA Stadium: Georgia State Stadium Head Coach: Shawn Elliott - 3rd season2018 Record: 2-10Returning Starters: 14 - Offense: 7 QB - Defense: 7Offensive Coordinator: Brad Glenn *Defensive Coordinator: Nick Fuqua

26.5

2.25 / 0.75

35.58 (#88 OF 130)

8/31/19 at Tennessee9/7/19 FURMAN9/14/19 at W Michigan9/21/19 at Texas St Univ OVER the total is 4-1 in L5 games of GAST-TSU series10/5/19 ARKANSAS ST10/12/19 at Coastal Carolina10/19/19 ARMY10/26/19 TROY11/9/19 at LA Monroe UNDERDOGS are 3-0 SU & ATS in L3 games of LAM-GAST series11/16/19 APPALACHIAN ST FAVORITES are 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS in L5 games of APST-GAST series11/23/19 S ALABAMA GEORGIA ST is 4-0 ATS in its L4 games vs. S ALABAMA11/30/19 at Ga Southern

8/30/18 KENNESAW ST 24-20 W -2.5 W 43 O9/8/18 at NC State 7-41 L 25 L 56 U9/14/18 at Memphis 22-59 L 29 L 63.5 O9/22/18 W MICHIGAN 15-34 L 9.5 L 61 U9/29/18 LA MONROE 46-14 W 5.5 W 65 U10/4/18 at Troy 20-37 L 17 T 55.5 O10/18/18 at Arkansas St 35-51 L 12 L 57 O10/27/18 COASTAL CAROLINA 34-37 L 2.5 L 60 O11/3/18 TEXAS ST UNIV 31-40 L -7.5 L 52.5 O11/10/18 at La Lafayette 22-36 L 13.5 L 68 U11/17/18 at Appalachian St 17-45 L 27 L 55.5 O11/24/18 GA SOUTHERN 14-35 L 10 L 58.5 U

One of the youngest teams in FBS ranks last season, Georgia State predictably tailed off in 2018, all of the way to 2-10. But if there’s a bounce-back candidate in the Belt, it could be the Panthers. Remember, GSU sits in the best recruiting hotbed of the Belt, Atlanta, and while the Panthers don’t go head-to-head with Georgia and Auburn for recruits, there are plenty of FBS-caliber preps within an easy drive of the “Showcase City of the South” and Turner Field, former home of the Braves and now GSU’s lair. So, if third-year Panther HC Shawn Elliott can coach a little (which we believe he can) the downturn shouldn’t last long. Besides, Elliott expected to take lumps last year as plenty of first-year players got their baptism under fire, as GSU has resisted a full-scale quick-fix via the juco ranks, looking to develop four-year players. New OC Brad Green is familiar with Elliott from their time together on past staffs (including App State), and early reports have been positive for senior QB Dan Ellington, who welcomes many skill-position players from a

year ago who helped post a decent 5.6 yards per play (ranking in the middle of the pack nationally). But it’s on defense where upgrades should be noticeable, as the stop unit featured many of those newcomers thrown into the mix and learning on the fly last season. With a year under their belts, numbers should improve. If GSU can beat Furman on Sept. 7, as it should, finding three wins within the Belt does not seem to be mission impossible.

OVER 3.5FANDUEL




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GEORGIA STPANTHERS


Points Per Game 39 120Yards Per Point 12.8 1023rd Down Conv. % 51.1% 127Total Yards Per Game 499.5 124Yards Per Play 7.8 129Rush Yards Per Game 257.6 122Yards Per Rush Attempt 7 128Completion % 73.4% 130Passing Yards Per Game 241.9 81Yards Per Pass Attempt 9.4 127Sacks 1.1 123Turnovers 0.7 129


2018 24.5 -6.5 -1.28 16.2 6 26.3 5.98 15.42 5 32.8 7.26 13.982017 Yes 23 -5.4 -0.36 12.8 8- OC 20.3 5.44 19.01 6-DC 25.7 5.8 15.22016 25 -1.9 0.84 11.2 7-QB 23.1 5.55 15.08 9 25.1 4.7 14.562015 30.5 0.3 1 17.8 8 25.1 6.37 18.07 9 24.8 5.37 16.65

• GEORGIA ST is 8-1-1 ATS (L10G) on ROAD - In October

• GEORGIA ST is 2-12 ATS (L14G) at HOME - More than 6 days rest

• GEORGIA ST is 9-1 UNDER (L10G) at HOME - Revenging a loss





SCHEDULE STRENGTH

2019 SCHEDULE




COASTAL CAROLINACHANTICLEERSLocation: Conway, SC Stadium: Brooks Stadium Head Coach: Jamey Chadwell - 1st season2018 Record: 5-7Returning Starters: 15 - Offense: 7 - Defense: 8Offensive Coordinator: Willy Korn / Newland Isaac *Defensive Coordinator: Marvin Sanders

27

2.25 / 0.25

30.65 (#123 OF 130)

8/31/19 E MICHIGAN9/7/19 at Kansas9/14/19 NORFOLK ST9/21/19 at Massachusetts9/28/19 at Appalachian St10/12/19 GEORGIA ST10/19/19 at Ga Southern11/2/19 TROY11/7/19 LA LAFAYETTE11/16/19 at Arkansas St11/23/19 at LA Monroe11/30/19 TEXAS ST UNIV

9/1/18 at South Carolina 15-49 L 30.5 L 55 O9/8/18 UAB 47-24 W 8.5 W 55 O9/12/18 at Campbell 58-21 W -30.5 W 57.5 O9/22/18 at La Lafayette 30-28 W 3 W 62.5 U9/29/18 at Troy 21-45 L 14 L 56 O10/13/18 LA MONROE 20-45 L -6.5 L 66.5 U10/20/18 at Massachusetts 24-13 W 2.5 W 75.5 U10/27/18 at Georgia St 37-34 W -2.5 W 60 O11/3/18 APPALACHIAN ST 7-23 L 13.5 L 53 U11/10/18 ARKANSAS ST 16-44 L 6.5 L 61 U11/17/18 GA SOUTHERN 17-41 L 7 L 53.5 O11/23/18 at S Alabama 28-31 L -1.5 L 58.5 O

Noting our previous “dead money” notes, expect the Chanticleers to have some issues in what looks like a transition year. Not as much because new HC Jamey Chadwell took over for the retired Joe Moglia in January; Chadwell is familiar with the operation at Myrtle Beach, having served as interim HC when Moglia sat out 2017 on medical leave, and was the OC last season. But the ranks were thinned in the offseason by several players entering the transfer portal, including QB Kilton Anderson (who had earlier transferred from Fresno State), and neither of the holdover QBs, Fred Payton or Bryce Carpenter, who both saw action when Anderson was hurt a year ago, impressed in spring, suggesting Chadwell might have no choice other than to use both and allow the competition to continue into live action in the fall. Sometimes that alternating QB scenario can backfire. It’s on defense, however, where the Chants might not have any answers, and among those transferring out in the offseason were All-Belt DE Jeffrey Gunter, who has landed at NC State, and one of the few

playmakers on the platoon. Even with Gunter, Coastal still couldn’t stop the run last season, ranking 121st nationally, and was also far up the track in scoring (ranked 100th) and total (ranked 110th) defensive stats. Only one starter returns in the secondary as well. With those manpower issues exacerbated by the transfers, can also expect the same sort of attrition that sunk Coastal a year ago when it lost its last four games, and wasn’t within single digits in the process.

UNDER 4.5FANDUEL




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COASTAL CAROLINACHANTICLEERS




2018 24.5 -2.4 -1 12.3 7 28.3 6.06 13.95 5-DC 30.7 7.05 14.172017 23.5 -7.9 -0.24 19.8 4 23.6 5.66 14.98 6 31.5 5.9 12.732016 33 -0.5 -1.07 8.2 N/A 31.1 4.99 10.69 N/A 31.5 6.06 12.632015 28.5 0.5 -0.77 12.6 N/A 32.9 5.91 12.19 N/A 32.4 6.68 14.86

• COASTAL CAROLINA is 5-2 ATS (L7G) - Nonconference VS NON-POWER 5

• COASTAL CAROLINA is 1-7 ATS (L8G) at HOME - Conference games

• COASTAL CAROLINA is 6-1 OVER (L7G) - Underdog of 10 or more points





SCHEDULE STRENGTH

2019 SCHEDULE




ARKANSAS STRED WOLVESLocation: Jonesboro, AR Stadium: Centennial Bank Stadium Head Coach: Blake Anderson - 6th season2018 Record: 8-5Returning Starters: 13 - Offense: 6 - Defense: 7Offensive Coordinator: Keith Heckendorf *Defensive Coordinator: David Duggan *

38

3.75 / 0.25

32.71 (#110 OF 130)

8/31/19 SMU FAVORITES are 3-0 SU & ATS in L3 games of SMU-AKS series9/7/19 at UNLV9/14/19 at Georgia9/21/19 S ILLINOIS9/28/19 at Troy ARKANSAS ST is 4-2 SU & 5-1 ATS in its L6 games vs. TROY10/5/19 at Georgia St10/17/19 LA LAFAYETTE HOME TEAMS are 6-0 SU & ATS in L6 games of AKS-LAL series10/26/19 TEXAS ST UNIV ROAD TEAMS are 2-1 SU & 3-0 ATS in L3 games of AKS-TSU series11/2/19 at LA Monroe ARKANSAS ST is 9-0 SU & ATS in its L9 games vs. LA MONROE11/16/19 COASTAL CAROLINA11/23/19 GA SOUTHERN11/30/19 at S Alabama HOME TEAMS are 5-1 SU & ATS in L6 games of USA-AKS series

9/1/18 SE MISSOURI ST 48-21 W -32.5 L 58 O9/8/18 at Alabama 7-57 L 35.5 L 62.5 O9/15/18 at Tulsa 29-20 W 1.5 W 71 U9/22/18 UNLV 27-20 W -7.5 L 66 U9/29/18 at Ga Southern 21-28 L -3 L 53 U10/9/18 APPALACHIAN ST 9-35 L 9.5 L 59.5 U10/18/18 GEORGIA ST 51-35 W -12 W 57 O10/27/18 at La Lafayette 43-47 L -3 L 68.5 O11/3/18 S ALABAMA 38-14 W -14 W 62 U11/10/18 at Coastal Carolina 44-16 W -6.5 W 61 U11/17/18 LA MONROE 31-17 W -8.5 W 68.5 U11/24/18 at Texas St Univ 33-7 W -14 W 49.5 U12/29/18 vs. Nevada 13-16 L 1 L 57 U

In a nutshell, missing Belt East heavyweight App State on the schedule, and the likelihood the Red Wolves can win two (UNLV and Southern Illinois) and maybe three (SMU) non-Belt games, plus competes in the lesser Western half of the conference, makes us believe HC Blake Anderson can get to 8 wins or more for the fourth time in five seasons. That Anderson has resisted the temptation of predecessors Hugh Freeze, Gus Malzahn, and Bryan Harsin (each of whom lasting only one season in Jonesboro) to make the jump up the FBS coaching ladder has done wonders for the continuity at ASU, but don’t think Anderson is satisfied, not after making several adjustments on his offensive staff, including removing himself from play-calling duties (Keith Heckendorf, who worked with Anderson when both were on staff at North Carolina, takes those reins) after the Red Wolves self-destructed in a hard-to-fathom, 13-6 Arizona Bowl, overtime loss to Nevada. Anderson is also breaking in a new QB after the decorated Justice Hansen graduated, but junior Logan Bonner is marinated in the Red Wolves system, having spent the past two seasons backing up Hansen, and

regional sources believe he just needs a chance to show what he can do. The defense was also one of the Belt’s best a year ago, and despite some assistants being lured out of Jonesboro, new DC David Duggan (once the coordinator at Southern Miss) will not be altering the scheme, that will look to unleash a disruptive defensive front led by DT Kevin Thurmon. As mentioned earlier, getting Louisiana in a likely West showdown game at Jonesboro will help the Red Wolves get to the 8-win level.

OVER 7.5FANDUEL


2019 SUN BELT CONFERENCE WEST DIVISION


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ARKANSAS STRED WOLVES


Points Per Game 26 52Yards Per Point 14.5 573rd Down Conv. % 37.6% 49Total Yards Per Game 376.6 47Yards Per Play 5.4 53Rush Yards Per Game 197.6 91Yards Per Rush Attempt 4.8 94Completion % 56.5% 29Passing Yards Per Game 179 10Yards Per Pass Attempt 6.9 48Sacks 2.5 41Turnovers 1.7 37


2018 39 9 0.94 4.2 7-QB 32.2 6.5 14.92 5 23.3 5.56 15.72017 38.5 9.5 0.5 1.7 5 33.4 6.01 14.37 5 23.9 5.51 16.632016 40 6.7 0.58 0.9 6-QB, OC 28.6 5.66 14.1 7 21.9 5.09 16.822015 41 11.1 0.38 5 9 38.2 5.89 11.61 6 27.1 5.51 14.78

• ARKANSAS ST is 9-1 ATS (L10G) - After playing LA MONROE

• ARKANSAS ST is 4-13 ATS (L17G) on ROAD - [vs OPP] After a blowout SU win of 20 points or more

• ARKANSAS ST is 17-3 UNDER (L20G) at HOME - As underdog





SCHEDULE STRENGTH

2019 SCHEDULE




LA MONROEWARHAWKSLocation: Monroe, LA Stadium: JPS Field at Malone Stadium Head Coach: Matt Viator - 4th season2018 Record: 6-6Returning Starters: 15 - Offense: 7 QB - Defense: 8Offensive Coordinator: Matt KubikDefensive Coordinator: Mike Collins

32

2 / -0.5

35.52 (#90 OF 130)

8/29/19 GRAMBLING9/7/19 at Florida St9/21/19 at Iowa St9/28/19 S ALABAMA10/5/19 MEMPHIS10/10/19 at Texas St Univ ROAD TEAMS are 2-4 SU but 5-1 ATS in L6 games of LAM-TSU series10/19/19 at Appalachian St OVER the total is 4-0 in L4 games of APST-LAM series11/2/19 ARKANSAS ST ARKANSAS ST is 9-0 SU & ATS in its L9 games vs. LA MONROE11/9/19 GEORGIA ST UNDERDOGS are 3-0 SU & ATS in L3 games of LAM-GAST series11/16/19 at Ga Southern11/23/19 COASTAL CAROLINA11/30/19 at LA Lafayette ROAD TEAMS are 8-2 SU & 10-0 ATS in LAM-LAL series since 2009

8/30/18 SE LOUISIANA 34-31 W -21 L 74 U9/8/18 at Southern Miss 21-20 W 6 W 67 U9/15/18 at Texas A&M 10-48 L 28 L 65.5 U9/22/18 TROY 27-35 L 4.5 L 58.5 O9/29/18 at Georgia St 14-46 L -5.5 L 65 U10/6/18 at Ole Miss 21-70 L 24 L 76 O10/13/18 at Coastal Carolina 45-20 W 6.5 W 66.5 U10/20/18 TEXAS ST UNIV 20-14 W -10.5 L 61 U11/3/18 GA SOUTHERN 44-25 W 7.5 W 60.5 O11/10/18 at S Alabama 38-10 W -9 W 63 U11/17/18 at Arkansas St 17-31 L 8.5 L 68.5 U11/24/18 LA LAFAYETTE 28-31 L -1.5 L 71 U

There are a lot of “Power 5” members who aren’t challenging themselves in non-league play as are the Warhawks, who will have payday trips to Florida State and Iowa State and will also host explosive Memphis. That’s picking a lot more fights than many of the “big boys” in nonconference competition. But it’s also why we’re a bit reluctant to forecast more than five wins for the Warhawks, who could have a puncher’s chance most weekends for 4th-year HC Matt Viator, whose name sounds like it should be a super-hero in a comic strip and who did get ULM bowl-eligible with six wins (but no bowl invitation) a year ago. Senior Caleb Evans will be a third-year starting QB for Viator and has already posted back-to-back 2,800+-yard passing seasons, though his pick count doubled (form 6 to 12) a year ago. Mitigating the departure via transfer of last year’s top wideout R.J. Turner, Evans will at least welcome back sr. Xavier Brown, who missed most of 2018 with a shoulder injury but does have 65 career receptions. An OL that

returns en masse with all five starters back in the fold should be another plus. The defense, however, could use being more opportunistic after forcing just 11 takeaways last season, a big reason ULM ranked a lowly 125th in turnover margin. ULM also had the Belt’s worst pass defense a year ago. A seasoned QB like Evans will give ULM a chance in many of its games, but there look to be too many holes to project anything more than five wins.

PUSH 5FANDUEL




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LA MONROEWARHAWKS


Points Per Game 31.8 86Yards Per Point 13.5 863rd Down Conv. % 44.0% 105Total Yards Per Game 429.1 84Yards Per Play 6 102Rush Yards Per Game 192.7 87Yards Per Rush Attempt 4.6 78Completion % 72.4% 129Passing Yards Per Game 236.4 73Yards Per Pass Attempt 9 119Sacks 2.8 23Turnovers 0.9 122


2018 33 -1 0.39 8.7 9-QB 28 6.46 15.39 8 29 6.07 14.262017 28 -0.9 -0.05 13.5 7 35.6 6.79 13.73 8 36.5 6.84 13.742016 Yes 21 -9.6 -0.85 20.3 8- OC 26.7 5.43 14.84 3-DC 36.3 6.28 12.492015 18 -11.8 -0.79 22.5 6-QB 20.8 4.64 15.46 8-DC 32.6 5.43 12.54

• LA MONROE is 6-1 ATS (L7G) on ROAD - VS LA LAFAYETTE

• LA MONROE is 2-8 ATS (L10G) at HOME - After a blowout SU loss 20 points or more

• LA MONROE is 9-0-1 OVER (L10G) - After playing a game that went into overtime





SCHEDULE STRENGTH

2019 SCHEDULE




LA LAFAYETTERAGIN’ CAJUNSLocation: Lafayette, LA Stadium: Cajun Field Head Coach: Billy Napier - 2nd season2018 Record: 7-7Returning Starters: 15 - Offense: 8 - Defense: 7Offensive Coordinator: Rob SaleDefensive Coordinator: Ron Roberts

33.5

2.25 / -0.25

32.19 (#113 OF 130)

8/31/19 vs. Mississippi St9/7/19 LIBERTY9/14/19 TEXAS SOUTHERN9/21/19 at Ohio U9/28/19 at Ga Southern10/9/19 APPALACHIAN ST ROAD TEAMS are 1-5 SU but 5-1 ATS in L6 games of APST-LAL series10/17/19 at Arkansas St HOME TEAMS are 6-0 SU & ATS in L6 games of AKS-LAL series11/2/19 TEXAS ST UNIV LA LAFAYETTE is 6-0 SU & ATS in its L6 games vs. TEXAS ST UNIV11/7/19 at Coastal Carolina11/16/19 at S Alabama UNDER the total is 5-1 in L6 games of USA-LAL series11/23/19 TROY TROY is 5-1 ATS in its L6 games at LA LAFAYETTE11/30/19 LA MONROE ROAD TEAMS are 8-2 SU & 10-0 ATS in LAM-LAL series since 2009

9/1/18 GRAMBLING 49-17 W -13.5 W 61 O9/15/18 at Mississippi St 10-56 L 34.5 L 63 O9/22/18 COASTAL CAROLINA 28-30 L -3 L 62.5 U9/29/18 at Alabama 14-56 L 48 W 69 O10/6/18 at Texas St Univ 42-27 W -3 W 57.5 O10/13/18 NEW MEXICO ST 66-38 W -7.5 W 66.5 O10/20/18 at Appalachian St 17-27 L 25 W 64.5 U10/27/18 ARKANSAS ST 47-43 W 3 W 68.5 O11/3/18 at Troy 16-26 L 7 L 64 U11/10/18 GEORGIA ST 36-22 W -13.5 W 68 U11/17/18 S ALABAMA 48-38 W -19.5 L 67 O11/24/18 at La Monroe 31-28 W 1.5 W 71 U12/1/18 at Appalachian St 19-30 L 17.5 W 55 U12/15/18 vs. Tulane 24-41 L 3.5 L 60 O

First, apologies to those at LSU and ULM that object to the Ragin’ Cajuns using “Louisiana” as their label; those in Baton Rouge and Monroe take umbrage and suggest “Louisiana-Lafayette” or “ULL” would be more appropriate. But we’ll respect the wishes of the Ragin’ Cajuns just like when Cassius Clay changed his name to Muhammad Ali; they can call themselves whatever they want in Lafayette. They can also call themselves a surprising bowl rep after last season’s unexpected run to the West crown in the Belt for first-year HC Billy Napier, who among other previous stops in his career worked for Nick Saban at Bama and Dabo Swinney at Clemson. Napier might or might not struggle for an encore with almost the entirety of a chop-busting RB corps back in the fold; the trio of Trey Regas, Elijah Mitchell, and Raymond Calais accounted for over 3500 yards and 33 TDs a year ago and returns en masse. But Napier was also looking for a QB in spring after Levi Lewis, who played every fourth series a year ago, failed to wow ‘em in spring, which might open the door for newcomers like juco Jai’ave Magalei or true frosh

Chandler Field to compete for snaps in the fall. Defense also remains an issue after ranking in the bottom half of the Belt in all relevant stat categories. Coupled with the questions at QB, not sure Napier gets beyond the 6 wins he recorded in the regular season a year ago, especially with East contenders App State, Troy, and Georgia Southern all on the schedule, plus SEC Mississippi State. Another six-win regular season looks a likely conclusion for “Napier II” in Lafayette.

PUSH 6FANDUEL




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LA LAFAYETTERAGIN’ CAJUNS


Points Per Game 35.5 106Yards Per Point 12.5 1103rd Down Conv. % 45.9% 116Total Yards Per Game 445.8 98Yards Per Play 6.3 113Rush Yards Per Game 224.6 111Yards Per Rush Attempt 5 100Completion % 62.7% 94Passing Yards Per Game 221.2 52Yards Per Pass Attempt 9 122Sacks 1.7 101Turnovers 1.2 103


2018 Yes 33.5 5.4 1.12 7.8 8-OC 36.2 7.14 12.83 3-DC 30.9 6.03 13.192017 21.5 -9.2 -0.48 14.6 6-QB, OC 26.6 5.93 15.35 7 35.8 6.41 13.412016 30 1 0.15 10.5 7-QB, OC 25.6 5.21 14.6 7 24.6 5.07 14.682015 23 -5.9 -0.53 15.9 6-QB 23.6 5.44 16.09 6-DC 29.4 5.97 14.34

• LA LAFAYETTE is 13-2 ATS (L15G) on ROAD - After a conference SU loss

• LA LAFAYETTE is 1-6 ATS (L7G) at HOME - Underdog of 10 or more points

• LA LAFAYETTE is 7-0 OVER (L7G) at HOME - Favorite of more than 14 points





SCHEDULE STRENGTH

2019 SCHEDULE




TEXAS STATEBOBCATSLocation: San Marcos, TX Stadium: Jim Wacker Field at Bobcat Stadium Head Coach: Jake Spavital - 1st season2018 Record: 3-9Returning Starters: 19 - Offense: 9 QB - Defense: 10Offensive Coordinator: Bob Stitt *Defensive Coordinator: Zac Spavital / Archie McDaniel *

29

2 / -0.75

35.79 (#84 OF 130)

8/29/19 at Texas A&M9/7/19 WYOMING HOME TEAMS are 3-0 SU & ATS in L3 games of WYO-TSU series9/14/19 at SMU9/21/19 GEORGIA ST OVER the total is 4-1 in L5 games of GAST-TSU series9/28/19 NICHOLLS ST10/10/19 LA MONROE ROAD TEAMS are 2-4 SU but 5-1 ATS in L6 games of LAM-TSU series10/26/19 at Arkansas St ROAD TEAMS are 2-1 SU & 3-0 ATS in L3 games of AKS-TSU series11/2/19 at LA Lafayette LA LAFAYETTE is 6-0 SU & ATS in its L6 games vs. TEXAS ST UNIV11/9/19 S ALABAMA TEXAS ST UNIV is 3-0 ATS in its L4 games vs. S ALABAMA11/16/19 TROY11/23/19 at Appalachian St UNDER the total is 3-0 in L3 games of APST-TSU series11/30/19 at Coastal Carolina

9/1/18 at Rutgers 7-35 L 16.5 L 47.5 U9/8/18 TEXAS SOUTHERN 36-20 W -33.5 L 52.5 O9/15/18 at S Alabama 31-41 L 10 T 48.5 O9/22/18 at Tx-San Antonio 21-25 L 7 W 48.5 U10/6/18 LA LAFAYETTE 27-42 L 3 L 57.5 O10/11/18 GA SOUTHERN 13-15 L 16.5 W 51.5 U10/20/18 at La Monroe 14-20 L 10.5 W 61 U10/27/18 NEW MEXICO ST 27-20 W -1.5 W 57 U11/3/18 at Georgia St 40-31 W 7.5 W 52.5 O11/10/18 APPALACHIAN ST 7-38 L 19.5 L 46.5 U11/17/18 at Troy 7-12 L 22.5 W 47.5 U11/24/18 ARKANSAS ST 7-33 L 14 L 49.5 U

As noted when promoting TSU as a “live dog” earlier in this presentation, we remain oddly curious about the Bobcats, who for a time last season seemed to be ready to turn the corner for HC Everett Withers. Withers, however, was a defensive coach by trade (if interested, note that Withers has since been hired by Pat Shurmur as DB coach for the NY Giants), and just didn’t have enough answers on the offensive side to get TSU over the hump. Offenses need a hook in places like San Marcos, and TSU is rolling the dice with a spunky 33-year-old, Jake Spavital, who has been weaned on the spread and will likely get the Bobcats looking like a modern offense this fall. And awkward to defend, too, as his hire of the sage Bob Stitt, regarded as the “guru of the jet sweep” from his long and successful run at the lower levels with Colorado School of Mines, as his OC, looks a good bit of business. Thus, TSU might just be able to keep opposing defenses guessing, especially if Spavital goes with Stitt’s QB from his one year at Montana, transfer Gresch

Jensen. Almost the entirety (10 starters) of a defense that wasn’t so bad for Withers a year ago also returns, featuring the top two tacklers in the Sun Belt last season, LBs Bryan London II (not related to the long-ago boxer of similar name) and Nikolas Daniels. The schedule is a challenge, but we think there are enough available wins in the Belt, plus a nonconference game vs. the Colonels from Nicholls, to land the Bobcats right on 5 wins.

OVER 4.5FANDUEL




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TEXAS STATEBOBCATS

Points Per Game 18.3 125Yards Per Point 17 112Plays Per Game 65.7 119Time of Possession 27:19 1173rd Down Conv. % 31.1% 125Total Yards Per Game 309.7 124Yards Per Play 4.7 115Rush Attempts Per Game 35.8 94Rush Yards Per Game 132.9 105Yards Per Rush Attempt 3.7 104Pass Attempts Per Game 27.4 101Completion % 58.5% 75Passing Yards Per Game 176.8 106Yards Per Pass Attempt 6.5 104Turnovers 2 110



2018 22 -9.2 -0.33 19.2 7 19.3 5.03 16.93 7-DC 28.4 5.37 13.652017 15.5 -14.8 -1.23 22.2 7-QB, OC 18 4.87 19.23 6 32.8 6.1 13.22016 Yes 10 -19.3 -1.52 27.7 4- OC 21 4.47 14.88 6-DC 40.3 5.99 11.292015 18 -8.4 -1.06 18.5 8 24.6 5.74 17.5 6 33.1 6.79 15.29

• TEXAS ST is 5-1-1 ATS (L7G) on ROAD - VS SUNBELT

• TEXAS ST is 2-8 ATS (L10G) at HOME - OU line of 60 or more

• TEXAS ST is 19-5 UNDER (L5Y) - After a conference SU loss





SCHEDULE STRENGTH

2019 SCHEDULE




SOUTH ALABAMAJAGUARSLocation: Mobile, AL Stadium: Ladd–Peebles Stadium Head Coach: Steve Campbell - 2nd season2018 Record: 3-9Returning Starters: 13 - Offense: 8 - Defense: 5Offensive Coordinator: Kenny EdenfieldDefensive Coordinator: Greg Stewart

21

2.75 / -0.75

34.44 (#98 OF 130)

8/31/19 at Nebraska9/7/19 JACKSON ST9/14/19 MEMPHIS9/21/19 at Uab9/28/19 at LA Monroe10/3/19 GA SOUTHERN GA SOUTHERN is 5-0 SU & ATS in its L5 games vs. S ALABAMA10/16/19 at Troy ROAD TEAMS are 5-2 SU & 6-1 ATS in L7 games of TRO-USA series10/26/19 APPALACHIAN ST HOME TEAMS are 2-1 SU & 3-0 ATS in L3 games of APST-USA series11/9/19 at Texas St Univ TEXAS ST UNIV is 3-0 ATS in its L4 games vs. S ALABAMA11/16/19 LA LAFAYETTE UNDER the total is 5-1 in L6 games of USA-LAL series11/23/19 at Georgia St GEORGIA ST is 4-0 ATS in its L4 games vs. S ALABAMA11/30/19 ARKANSAS ST HOME TEAMS are 5-1 SU & ATS in L6 games of USA-AKS series

9/1/18 LOUISIANA TECH 26-30 L 11 W 53.5 O9/8/18 at Oklahoma St 13-55 L 30.5 L 64.5 O9/15/18 TEXAS ST UNIV 41-31 W -10 T 48.5 O9/22/18 at Memphis 35-52 L 31.5 W 66 O9/29/18 at Appalachian St 7-52 L 26 L 56 O10/6/18 at Ga Southern 13-48 L 12 L 56.5 O10/13/18 ALABAMA ST 45-7 W -27 W 55.5 U10/23/18 TROY 17-38 L 12 L 54.5 O11/3/18 at Arkansas St 14-38 L 14 L 62 U11/10/18 LA MONROE 10-38 L 9 L 63 U11/17/18 at La Lafayette 38-48 L 19.5 W 67 O11/23/18 COASTAL CAROLINA 31-28 W 1.5 W 58.5 O

First, let it be said that we do have plenty of respect for second-year HC Steve Campbell, who has won titles at all of his previous career stops (Division II at Delta State, juco at Mississippi Guld Coast, Southland at Central Arkansas). But the transition period in Mobile figures to last at least another year as Campbell inherited a fairly bare cupboard from predecessor Joey Jones, who exerted a lot of energy just to get the Jags competitive in the FBS ranks, but didn’t leave much behind. It won’t help USA that it figures to be cannon fodder for the likes of Nebraska, Memphis, and probably UAB in nonconference play; we’ll give the Jags a win over Jackson State, but can they find two more wins in the Sun Belt? We’re not sure, especially since the defense looks like it will again be a liability after conceding nearly 39 ppg a year ago, ranking at the bottom of the Belt and a woeful 123rd nationally. Playmakers are badly needed, and only four starters return, which has forced Campbell to look hard to the juco ranks for a quick fix, but the platoon was a step too slow a year ago and could be overrun again. If we thought USA

could outscore somebody we might be tempted to look “Over” but there are questions galore on the attack end, especially as USA starts a sixth different QB (raw 6-5 soph Cephus Johnson) in as many years. And aside from slot receiver Kawaan Baker, an interesting weapon who scored 13 TDs last year (nine of those on the ground), the receiving targets will be new. With a tough schedule and lots of holes to fill, we expect the Jags to only reach 2 wins.

UNDER 2.5FANDUEL




TOP TRENDS FOR 2019







Eff OffPPG

Eff OffYPP

Eff OffYPPT

Def RS-New?

Eff DefPPG

Eff DefYPP

Eff DefYPPT

SOUTH ALABAMAJAGUARS

Points Per Game 22.3 106Yards Per Point 15.8 94Plays Per Game 70.1 84Time of Possession 30:01 613rd Down Conv. % 32.7% 117Total Yards Per Game 351.5 108Yards Per Play 5 100Rush Attempts Per Game 40.6 39Rush Yards Per Game 149 86Yards Per Rush Attempt 3.7 107Pass Attempts Per Game 27.5 100Completion % 61.9% 38Passing Yards Per Game 202.5 93Yards Per Pass Attempt 7.4 65Turnovers 2 112



2018 Yes 21.5 -10.8 -0.99 18 6-QB, OC 25.7 5.47 14.38 7-DC 36.4 6.46 11.92017 25 -4.2 -0.51 14.8 4 19.1 5.23 17.91 6 23.3 5.74 17.52016 26 -0.3 0.04 14 5-QB 26.2 5.65 15.02 5-DC 26.5 5.61 14.582015 23 -8.6 -0.44 17.7 3-QB, OC 25.3 5.37 14.75 2 33.9 5.82 11.88

• S ALABAMA is 12-5 ATS (L17G) on ROAD - In September

• S ALABAMA is 2-12 ATS (L14G) on ROAD - In November

• S ALABAMA is 7-0 UNDER (L7G) at HOME - Favorite of 7 or less points


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