© Holcim Ltd 2010
Kepler – Swiss Seminar 2010
Bernhard A. Fuchs – Head Investor Relations
Marco Knuchel – Investor Relations
March 24, 2010
St. Genevieve plant
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© Holcim Ltd 2010 March 2010Kepler – Swiss Seminar 2010
Agenda
1 Results 2009 and outlook 2010
2 Strategy geared to growth areas
3 Value-driven investment criteria
4 Attractiveness of Holcim’s capex program
5 Conclusions
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© Holcim Ltd 2010 March 2010Kepler – Swiss Seminar 2010
Results 2009
• Full market impact from the economic crises; volume loss in all main products in Europe and North America > -20%
• Geographical positioning mitigated cement volume reduction to only -7%
• Prices held up well in all segments
• Significant efforts on fixed cost reductions CHF 857 million
• Op. EBITDA like for like (lfl) -5.1%, margin up +1.2 pp
• Strong cash flow (lfl +12%) and lower CAPEX allowed to reduce NFD by 1.2 bn, while maturity was extended
• Dividend payout ratio one third maintained; CHF 1.50 per share
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© Holcim Ltd 2010 March 2010Kepler – Swiss Seminar 2010
Key financial figures – 2009
1 Includes a capital gain on the sale of a stake in Holcim South Africa of CHF 1,110 million and a special dividend of CHF 150 million, net2 Includes a special dividend of CHF 150 million, net related to the sale of a stake in Holcim South Africa3 Calculated on the weighted average number of shares outstanding retrospectively restated in accordance with IAS 334 Paid as a stock dividend 5 Proposed by the Board of Directors
LFL CIS FX Total
Sales volumes
- Cement (mt) 149.6 143.4 131.9 -6.8% -1.2% -8.0%- Aggregates (mt) 187.9 167.7 143.4 -19.6% 5.1% -14.5%- Ready-mix (mm3) 45.2 48.5 41.8 -17.5% 3.7% -13.8%
Net sales 27,052 25,157 21,132 -10.0% 0.8% -6.8% -16.0%Operating EBITDA 6,930 5,333 4,630 -5.1% -0.7% -7.4% -13.2%Operating profit 5,024 3,360 2,781 -7.3% -2.1% -7.8% -17.2%Net income before minorities 4,545 1 2,226 1,958 -5.8% -1.0% -5.2% -12.0%Net income attr. to Holcim shareholders 3,865 1 1,782 1,471 -11.2% -1.7% -4.6% -17.5%Cash flow 5,323 2 3,703 3,888 12.0% 1.6% -8.6% 5.0%
EPS CHF3 9.21 6.27 4.93 -21.4%Dividend/share CHF 3.30 2.25 4 1.50 5 -33.3%
Million CHF(if not otherwise stated)
+/-2007 2008 2009
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© Holcim Ltd 2010 March 2010Kepler – Swiss Seminar 2010
Outlook 2010
• Europe: the markets will only recover slowly
• North America: no rapid recovery on theconstruction market
• Latin America: construction industry will remain solid
• Africa Middle East: a stable economic environment
• Asia Pacific: markets will continue to grow
• Acquisition in Australia will make a solid contribution
• The cost advantages realized will be retained
• Focus remains on process efficiency and strengthening competitiveness
• Holcim will start the next upturn from a stronger position
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© Holcim Ltd 2010 March 2010Kepler – Swiss Seminar 2010
Agenda
1 Results 2009 and outlook 2010
2 Strategy geared to growth areas
3 Value-driven investment criteria
4 Attractiveness of Holcim’s capex program
5 Conclusions
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© Holcim Ltd 2010 March 2010Kepler – Swiss Seminar 2010
Holcim strategy…
…effective execution is the base for success1 Reported as per 12M 2009 YTD
Product FocusGeographicDiversification
Local ManagementGlobal Standards
• Two basic resources • Cement• Aggregates
• Value-adding productsand services• Ready-mix concrete• Asphalt• Concrete products
• Business – strongly anchored in local markets
• Supported by global standards• Policies & directives• Exchange of
know how &best practices / benchmarking
• Truly global• Balanced between
• regions• mature / emerging markets
34%
16%15%
6%
29%25%
8%
22%8%
37%
Latin AmericaAfrica Middle EastAsia Pacific
EuropeNorth America
Net sales1 Op. EBITDA1
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© Holcim Ltd 2010 March 2010Kepler – Swiss Seminar 2010
1970 2000 2030 20500
5
10
1.3
2.42.9
3.2
5.0
3.3
6.4
2.8
urban rural
1970 2000 2030 20500
5
10
1.3
2.42.9
3.2
5.0
3.3
6.4
2.8
urban rural
0
5
10
20501970 2000 20300
5
10
Emerging markets
Maturemarkets
0
5
10
20501970 2000 20300
5
10
0
5
10
20501970 2000 20300
5
10
Emerging markets
Maturemarkets
Demand drivers – population growth and urbanization
World population
• Likely little or even no population growth in most developed countries while population growth in emerging countries will continue
• In emerging and mature countries migration from rural areas into urban agglomerations will continue
Source: United Nations, World Population Prospects, March 2009 – in billion
Population in rural and urban areas
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© Holcim Ltd 2010 March 2010Kepler – Swiss Seminar 2010
34%
66%
Demand driver – GDP growth rates in emerging markets are expected to be higher
Continued and growing importance of emerging countries – the place where best growth opportunities will be found
World GDP growth (% per year)
44%
56%
GDP share 2008 vs. 2020E
Emerging marketsMature markets
2008 2020
• Global GDP growth of 3.5 to 4% on average p.a. expected in the next decade
Source: Global Construction 2020, Global Construction Perspectives, Oxford Economics, November 2009
2005 2010 2015 2020
Emerging marketsMature marketsWorld
0
5
10
-5
2005 2010 2015 2020
Emerging marketsMature marketsWorld
0
5
10
-5
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© Holcim Ltd 2010 March 2010Kepler – Swiss Seminar 2010
Global construction outlook
Holcim – very well positioned to capture growth opportunities
USA 1China 2Japan 3Germany 4Spain 5France 6Italy 7South Korea 8India 9UK 10Canada 11Brazil 12Australia 13Russia 14Indonesia 15
China 1USA 2India 3Japan 4South Korea 5Germany 6Spain 7Russia 8UK 9Canada 10France 11Italy 12Indonesia 13Brazil 14Australia 15
Largest construction markets 2009E Largest construction markets 2020E
Global ranking Global ranking
Source: Global Construction 2020, Global Construction Perspectives, Oxford Economics, November 2009
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© Holcim Ltd 2010 March 2010Kepler – Swiss Seminar 2010
Agenda
1 Results 2009 and outlook 2010
2 Strategy geared to growth areas
3 Value-driven investment criteria
4 Attractiveness of Holcim’s capex program
5 Conclusions
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© Holcim Ltd 2010 March 2010Kepler – Swiss Seminar 2010
Holcim investment criteria – set to secure long-term above average returns
Success factor – rigorous investment analysis and discipline
Product FocusGeographicDiversification
Local ManagementGlobal Standards
• Strategic fit• Position taking in line with maturity profile of the market:
• Cement • Aggregates• OCMS1
• GDP growth• Favourable demographics• Deficit markets• Substantial market share• Networking
• Management• Resources• Local culture embedment
Financials
• Hurdle rate concept • Financing in line with Holcim policy • Investment scorecard• Accountability
1 Other Construction Materials and Services
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© Holcim Ltd 2010 March 2010Kepler – Swiss Seminar 2010
Agenda
1 Results 2009 and outlook 2010
2 Strategy geared to growth areas
3 Value-driven investment criteria
4 Attractiveness of Holcim’s capex program
5 Conclusions
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© Holcim Ltd 2010 March 2010Kepler – Swiss Seminar 2010
Holcim expansion capex vs. consolidated capacity
We invested at the right time
The capacity expansion adds 28 million tonnes between 2007 to 2011 and will generate additional > CHF 900m
(Mtpa)
Cement CapacityExpansion capital expenditures
(in CHF million)
• Expansion capital expenditure peaked in 2008 while commissioning of cement capacity is peaking now
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© Holcim Ltd 2010 March 2010Kepler – Swiss Seminar 2010
Holcim exposure is geared towards emerging markets which account for ~70% of op. EBITDA
Eastern Europeop. EBITDA (% of Group):~8% Capacity expansion 2007/2011:
6.6 Mt
Latin Americaop. EBITDA (% of Group):
~22% Capacity expansion 2007/2011:
4.1 Mt
Africa Middle Eastop. EBITDA (% of Group): ~8%
Mature markets (Western Europe, North America, Australia, New Zealand)op. EBITDA (% of Group): ~30%Capacity expansion 2007/2011: 4.7 Mt
Reported op. EBITDA as per 12M 2009 YTD, China not consolidatedSource: Global Construction 2020, Oxford Economics, November 2009, Holcim Estimates
Construction output forecast CAGR 2010/2020
0% to <2%
2% to <4%
4% to <6%
6% to < 8%
>8%no forecast
dd
Asia Pacific (w/o AUS, NZL)op. EBITDA (% of Group):~32% Capacity expansion 2007/2011:
12.3 Mt
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© Holcim Ltd 2010 March 2010Kepler – Swiss Seminar 2010
Cement and clinker 1
• 4 cement plants• 1 grinding plants• Sales 2008: 5 million tonnes• Other: fly ash, slag and lime
Other construction materials & services
• 249 plants• Sales 2008: 6.3 million m3
• 16 pipe and precast plants
1 Cement Australia is a joint venture owned 75% by Holcim and 25% by HeidelbergCement
The acquisition in Australia demonstrates investment discipline in practice
Australia will generate an additional > CHF 400m op. EBITDA
• The only major transaction done in the industry in 2009
• One of the only mature markets not to enter a recession
• Major presence in all three segments across Australia
Aggregates
• 83 plants• Sales 2008: 30 million tonnes
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© Holcim Ltd 2010 March 2010Kepler – Swiss Seminar 2010
30
40
50
We are well positioned to capitalize on the recovery
50
75
100
125
150
175
200
Existing assets can generate an additional CHF 1bn op. EBITDA on a like-for-like basis
Aggregates volumes sold
-7 Mm3-56 Mt
2007Actual1
2007Actual1
2009Actual
2009Actual
199 143 49 42
• Prime asset base and locations with solid long term demand drivers• High quality aggregates with over 70 years of reserves
Ready-mix volumes sold
80
100
120
140
Cement volumes sold
-10 Mt
2007Actual1
2009Actual
142 132
1 Adjusted for change in structure to show like-for-like comparison
(Mt) (Mt) (Mm3)
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© Holcim Ltd 2010 March 2010Kepler – Swiss Seminar 2010
Agenda
1 Results 2009 and outlook 2010
2 Strategy geared to growth areas
3 Value-driven investment criteria
4 Attractiveness of Holcim’s capex program
5 Conclusions
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© Holcim Ltd 2010 March 2010Kepler – Swiss Seminar 2010
Conclusions
• Solid results in 2009 given the challenging environment• Sound strategy and effective execution are the prerequisites
for success and value creation• Expansion activities and acquisitions have positioned
Holcim in the fastest growing emerging and resilient mature markets
• Stringent investment criteria are the cornerstone for our capital allocation
Holcim’s investments will generate an estimated CHF 2.3bn in additional op. EBITDA
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© Holcim Ltd 2010 March 2010Kepler – Swiss Seminar 2010
Disclaimer
Cautionary statement regarding forward-looking statements
This presentation may contain certain forward-looking statements relating to the Group’s future business, development and economic performance.
Such statements may be subject to a number of risks, uncertainties and other important factors, such as but not limited to (1) competitive pressures; (2) legislative and regulatory developments; (3) global, macroeconomic and political trends; (4) fluctuations in currency exchange rates and general financial market conditions; (5) delay or inability in obtaining approvals from authorities; (6) technical developments; (7) litigation; (8) adverse publicity and news coverage, which could cause actual development and results to differ materially from the statements made in this presentation. Holcim assumes no obligation to update or alter forward-looking statements whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise.
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© Holcim Ltd 2010 March 2010Kepler – Swiss Seminar 2010
Contact information and event calendar
Event calendar
May 4, 2010 Results for the first quarter 2010
May 6, 2010 General meeting of shareholders
August 19, 2010 Half-year results for 2010
November 10, 2010 Press and analyst conference for the third quarter 2010
March 2, 2011 Press and analyst conference for the annual results for 2010
Contact information
Bernhard A. Fuchs
Marco Knuchel
Binit Sanghvi
Investor Relations
Phone +41 58 858 87 87
Fax +41 58 858 80 09
www.holcim.com/investors
Mailing list:
www.holcim.com/subscribe