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Fundamental Exam Review
TOC Thinking Processes Segment
The Theory of Constraints
[email protected]://www.engrmgt.wsu.edu/
James R. Holt, Ph.D., PEProfessor
Engineering & Technology Management
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TOCICO Segmented Fundamentals Exam
Fundamentals Certificate
Multiple Choice Exam(Identify, Exploit, Subordinate, Elevate, Go to Step 1)
Fundamentals Certificate of TOC Philosophy
Fundamentals Certificate of TOC Thinking Processes
FundamentalsCertificate of TOC Applications
Fundamentals Certificate of TOC Finance & Measures
•Inherent Potential•Inherent Simplicity•Inherent Win-Win•Five Focusing Steps•Three Questions
•Conflict Cloud
•Negative Branch
•Ambitious Target
•DBR•T, I, OE
•PQ Type Problem•Project
Management
•Replenishment
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Topics in TOC Thinking Process
• Cause and Effect
• Evaporating Cloud
• Surfacing Assumptions
• Invalidating Assumptions
• Negative Branch Reservation
• Overcoming Obstacles (PRT)
• Categories of Legitimate Reservation
• Layers of Resistance
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TOC Thinking Process Elements
• Two types of Logic (in Natural Language) If …, Then … . In order to …, There must be … .
Logical Causality Tools used to Answer the three questions:• What to Change?• What to Change to?• How to Cause the Change?
TOC is a Systemic Thinking Process.• There are a set of rules to guide and check validity.• Could be called “Visual Thinking”.
Sufficiency Logic
Necessary Logic
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Everyone Can Think
• Goal: Lower the Ball yet keep it attached.
Minimize: Y subject to: (X-1)^2+(Y-8)^2<=24(X-3)^2+(Y-8)^2<=14(X-5)^2+(Y-8)^2<=2(X-7)^2+(Y-8)^2<=22(X-9)^2+(Y-8)^2<=26 X->
Y->
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Thinking Time
• We all think! It’s what we do!
• Our minds are like CPUs. They keep on running and running and running …
• We feel uncomfortable if we don’t have thoughts in our head. That’s why junk TV still survives.
• We feel uncomfortable if we start thinking the wrong thoughts That’s why there are magazines in Doctor’s
offices!
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Thinking Experiment
• Get out a pencil and paper.
• Wait for the starting signal.
• Then, Work really hard at not thinking for One Minute!
GO!
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QUICK!
• Write down every thought you had in the last minute!
• Jot down a word to catch the thought you had
• Capture as many as possible.
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How Many Thoughts did you have in 1 Minute?
0 3 6 9 12 15 18
How many of those thoughts have you had before? 40%, 60%, 80%?
Pro
babl
e #
Number of thoughts
In the production world, we would call recurring thoughts RE-WORK!
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Improving our Mental Throughput
• We need to increase our mental effectiveness
• We need to tie together the stray pieces so we don’t have to deal with individual thoughts
• We need to get the whole picture, solve it, and move on.
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Thinking Process Tools
• The Basic Set of Thinking Process Tools Include: Current Reality Tree Evaporating Cloud Future Reality Tree Negative Branch Reservation Pre-Requisite Tree Transition Tree
• Derivatives Tools: Three Cloud Approach Chronic Conflict Layers of Resistance
All of these tools are Scrutinized by the Categories of Legitimate Reservation.
Thinking Process elements included in the Fundamentals Exam
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For Fun…!
• In order to understand the function and power of the Thinking Process Tools…
• Let’s examine a Thinking Process Example. One that is fairly well known by most people One that is not well solved by most people
Marital Strife
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First the Approach: The Thinking Process
What to Change?
Find the cause of the UnDesirableEffects - UDEs.
Change (Remove) the Core Problem.
UDEs
UDEsUDEs
UDEsUDEs
UDEs
UDEs
UDEs
Core Problem
Arrows are Logical Connections are Tail Head: “If …, Then … .”
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Find What’s Blocking the Solution
Injection that invalidates the assumption
Goal
Necessary Condition
Necessary Condition
Prerequisite
Prerequisite
What to Change To?
Assumptions that explain the necessary connection.
Arrows are Logical Connections are Head Tail: “In Order to …, Must have ….”
Thinking Process elements included in the Fundamentals Exam
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How to Cause the Change?
DE DE
DE DEDE
DEDE
DE
Key Action
Key Action
Key Action
Achieving the Solution
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Marital Strife UnDesirable Effects
Lack of Affection
Lack of Trust One Carries
Excessive Load
Unequal Workload
InfidelityFrequent Disagreements
Little Support
Lack of Compassion Difference of
Opinion
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Story - Trust
1. My spouse doesn’t come home when I expect him (her). This is happening more and more. The stories seem to be weaker and weaker. I want to trust my spouse. But I don’t want to be hurt.
I feel good about my marriage
My spouse feels free from my bondage
I don’t get hurt
I trust my spouse at all times
I don’t trust my spouse
Thinking Process elements included in the Fundamentals Exam
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Story - Support
2. My spouse is deeply involved in ______. He/she expects me to support him/her by taking care of __________ while he/she is gone. I don’t mind doing it, but it leaves me little time for my own hobbies.
We use our time well
My spouse can do his/her own thing
I have time for myself
Give lots of support
Give little support
Thinking Process elements included in the Fundamentals Exam
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Story-Workload
3. My spouse is in a stressful job and at a critical point in his/her career. It seems like this “critical point” is getting longer and longer. In the mean time, I have to do my job and hold down the domestic duties too!
We both Achieve
I survive my Job
My spouse gets ahead
We balance our domestic workload
We have unequal workloadThinking Process elements included
in the Fundamentals Exam
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Generic Conflict(a consolidated Evaporating Cloud)
Happy Marriage
My Spouse is Happy
I am Happy
My spouse does what he/she wants
My spouse doesn’t get what he/she wants
1. Feel Good2. Use Time Effective3. Achieve
1. Spouse freedom2. Spouse does own thing3. Spouse gets ahead
1. I’m not hurt2. Time for me3. I Survive
1. Trust2. Support3. Unequal work
1. Lack of Trust2. Lack of Support3. Balanced work
Thinking Process elements included in the Fundamentals Exam
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Core Conflict
We want a Happy Marriage
My Spouse needs to be happy
I need to be happy
There is pressure to give my spouse does what he/she wants
There is pressure not to give what he/she wants
My personal feelings are important
I not happy unless my spouse is happy
I have real needs
The things my spouse wants are important to our marriage
Our wants are different
We have different goals
I am often slightedOften, my spouse takes second place
Core Problem
What to Change?
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The Current Reality TreeResults of the Core Conflict
We have different goals
Excessive burdens
Different Opinions
Frequent arguments
Loss of trust
Lack of support
Lack of Affection
Infidelity
Lack of Compassion
Unequal workload
Things need to be done
Different people have different levels of importance
Time continues
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A Potential Future Desirale Effects (DEs)
We have a close relationship
We have complete confidence We share our
burdens
We share the workload Committed to
each other
We rarely disagree on important matters
We support each other Caring
Relationship
We really understand each other
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Starting Injection
My spouse and I share common goals, objectives and direction in the important aspects of our lives.
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Start of the Future
We want a Happy Marriage
My Spouse needs to be Happy I need to
be Happy
My personal feelings are importantI not happy unless my
spouse is happy
We have common goals, objectives
and direction in the important aspects
of our lives.
My spouse works
towards spouse’s
goals
I work toward
my goals
Spouse is working to our common goals
I’m working to our common goals
We are working towards our common goals/direction
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More Actions Needed
We are working towards our common goals/direction
We have complete confidence
We have a close relationshipWe share our
burdens
We rarely disagree We really understand
each other We have a Caring Relationship
We support each other
We share the workload
? ? ? ? ?
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A Possible Nice Future Reality Tree
We are working towards our common goals/direction
We have complete confidence in each other
We have a close relationship
We share our burdens
We rarely disagreeWe really understand each other
We have good communication
Caring Relationship
We support each otherWe share the workload
We realize we need each other to reach our common goalsWe make it a point
to communicate (good & bad)
We share a common set of moral virtues
What to Change to?
The Bad SideThe Good Side
Negative Branch Reservation
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We have common goals, objectives and direction in the important aspects of our lives.
I’m working to our common goals
My spouse works
towards spouse’s
goals
My spouse’s goals are achieved. Most of my
spouse’s goals are our common goals
I am very busy
My goals take a lot of time
I’m not working on my goals
I can’t achieve my goals
Thinking Process elements included in the Fundamentals Exam
Negative Branch Reservation
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I’m working to our common goals
My spouse works
towards spouse’s
goals
My spouse’s goals are achieved. Most of my
spouse’s goals are our common goals
I am very busy
My goals take a lot of time
I’m not working on my goals
I can’t achieve my goals
The Good Side The Bad Side
I work on things I value
I work on our goals AND my goals
I feel good about my progress
I finally prioritize my life
We have common goals, objectives and direction in the important aspects of our lives.
Thinking Process elements included in the Fundamentals Exam
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OK, Injections, But HOW?How to Cause the Change?
We have common goals, objectives
and direction in the important aspects
of our lives.
My spouse works
towards spouse’s
goals
I work toward
my goals
We realize we need each other to reach our common goals
We make it a point to communicate (good & bad)
We share a common set of moral virtues
Create the PreRequisite Tree (Ambitious Target Tree).
Practice on this Injection
I finally prioritize my life
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We share a common set of moral virtues
Obstacles Preventing
Intermediate Objectives
It’s a gray world out there. (I can’t tell right from wrong)
We don’t want to change.
Values change according to the circumstances.
We have different backgrounds.
Our desires differ.
We both enjoy some moral indiscretions.
Thinking Process elements included in the Fundamentals Exam
34
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We share a common set of moral virtues
Obstacles Preventing
Intermediate Objectives
We agree on common virtues
We are willing to work on this
We agree on a common virtues
We really know each other
We share a set of common goals
We live our set of virtues in all cases
It’s a gray world (can’t tell right from wrong)
We don’t want to change
Values change according to the circumstances
We have different backgrounds
Our desires differ
We both enjoy some moral indiscretions Thinking Process elements included
in the Fundamentals Exam
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Sequencing the solution(Structure of the PRT)
We recognize our own frailties
We don’t want to admit error
We really communicate
We subordinate ourselves to each other
We really know each other
We share a set of common goals
We agree on a common virtues
We live our set of virtues in all cases
We share a common set of moral virtues
Our desires differ
Its hard to tell right from wrong
We enjoy our indiscretions
We don’t talk much
We are different
We don’t know each other
Thinking Process elements included in the Fundamentals Exam
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Putting the Intermediate Objectives Into Place
• The PreRequisite Tree exposed the Intermediate Objectives (Milestones) needed for “How to Cause the Change?”
• But, How to We actually Get there?
• How will, ‘We Really Communicate’?
• For this, the Transition Tree gives the Step-by-Step Approach to getting there.
We recognize our own frailties
We don’t want to admit error
We really communicate
We subordinate ourselves to each other
We don’t talk much
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Working Upwards on a Transition Tree
We recognize our own frailties
We don’t want to admit error
We really communicate
We subordinate ourselves to each other
We don’t talk much
We recognize (more and more of) our
own frailties
People rarely respect people who make a lot
of mistakes
We want others to
respect us
We are mortal
There are (and should be) few
secrets between spouses
We, each of us, try to hide our mistakes
Spouses can be a significant help and support for dealing with problems
Mistakes are inevitable
We generally know about each other’s mistakes that we try to hide
We want to improve
We, each, admit (confidentially) to
some of our problems that we wish to eliminate
<feed back loop from up above>
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Working Upwards on a Transition Tree
We recognize our own frailties
We don’t want to admit error
We really communicate
We subordinate ourselves to each other
We don’t talk much
We subordinate ourselves (more and more) to each other
We desire to love each other even more than we do nowWe Loved
each other in the past
We both have made some
mistakes
We are willing to do some things that show
love to our spouse
We need to resolve some problems on both sides
Real love comes from sacrificing self for the
benefit of others.
Our marriage has some strife caused
by each of us.
We need cooperation (give and and take)
from both sides
We want to improve
We, each, accept we will do more things for each
other than we are currently doing
<feed back loop from up above>
Mistakes are inevitable
It is easier to love when loved.
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Working Upwards on a Transition Tree
We recognize our own frailties
We don’t want to admit error
We really communicate
We subordinate ourselves to each other
We don’t talk much We recognize
more and more) of our own frailties
We talk frequently about our
successes together
We talk frequently about our challenges
We dedicate time to spend
with each other
Neither of us dominates the discussion (for
too long)
We both have topics of interest
to each other
We don’t talk much
We really communicate
(more and more)
We subordinate ourselves (more
and more) to each other
We want to improve
We need to talk more
We each mention three good things
that are happening in our lives
We each mention three problems that we want to improve.
<feed back loop from up above>
We are very patient and
listen without judgment.
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Working Upwards on a Transition Tree
We recognize our own frailties
We don’t want to admit error
We really communicate
We subordinate ourselves to each other
We don’t talk much
We dedicate time to spend
with each other
We really communicate
(more and more)
We each mention three good things
that are happening in our lives
We each mention three problems that we want to improve.
We, each, admit (confidentially) to some of our problems that we
wish to eliminate
We are very patient and
listen without judgment.
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The Strategic/Tactic Plan for Marriage
S. Marital Bliss
T. Love Each Other
S. Get Along
T. Accept Each Other
S. Focus on the OtherT. Have Common
Goals
S. Trust Each Other
T. Share Moral Code
S. Spouse Loves Me
T. Take Actions to
cause Spouse to love meCommunication
Work at MarriageForgiveness
FidelityShared Responsibility
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The Evaporating Cloud
A. The Goal
B. My Need
C. Other’s Need
D. What I Want
D’. What the
Others Want
Thinking Process elements included in the Fundamentals Exam
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Creating the Evaporating Cloud
D. What I Want
1. What is it that I Want (that I’m having trouble getting)?
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Creating the Evaporating Cloud
D. What I Want
D’. What the
Others Want
1. What is it that I Want (that I’m having trouble getting)?
2. What is it that the Others Want (that I don’t want them to have)?
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Creating the Evaporating Cloud
B. My Need
D. What I Want
D’. What the
Others Want
1. What is it that I Want (that I’m having trouble getting)?
2. What is it that the Others Want (that I don’t want them to have)?
3. Why do I want what I want? What Need am I trying to fulfill?
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Creating the Evaporating Cloud
B. My Need
C. Other’s Need
D. What I Want
D’. What the
Others Want
1. What is it that I Want (that I’m having trouble getting)?
2. What is it that the Others Want (that I don’t want them to have)?
3. Why do I want what I want? What Need am I trying to fulfill?
4. Why do the Others want what they want? What Need do they have?
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Creating the Evaporating Cloud
A. The Goal
B. My Need
C. Other’s Need
D. What I Want
D’. What the
Others Want
1. What is it that I Want (that I’m having trouble getting)?
2. What is it that the Others Want (that I don’t want them to have)?
3. Why do I want what I want? What Need am I trying to fulfill?
4. Why do the Others want what they want? What Need do they have?
5. What Goal do we mutually share? Why are we still arguing?
Reading the Cloud:In order to <point> I must have <tail>.
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Communicating the Evaporating Cloud
A. The Goal
B. My Need
C. Other’s Need
D. What I Want
D’. What the
Others Want
5. And you WANT to meet your Need as well.
3. Acknowledge the Other side Wants to act on meeting their Need.
4. Point out that you also have a significant Need.
2. Recognize you understand the Other’s Need must be meet to reach the Goal.
1. Start the Mutual Goal. It is common ground. Both interested.
Reading the Cloud:In order to <point> I must have <tail>.
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Let’s Do Some Examples
A. The Goal
B. Why I Want It
C. Why the Other Side
Wants What They Want
D. What I Want (to do)
D’. What the Other Side
Wants
Thinking Process elements included in the Fundamentals Exam
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Let’s Do Some Examples
A. Get the Customer
order
B. Make the offer
attractive to the
customer
C. Insure the quality
of the product
D. Supplier makes the
mold
D’. Customer makes the
Mold
Thinking Process elements included in the Fundamentals Exam
STUDENT EXAMPLESTUDENT EXAMPLE
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Let’s Do Some Examples
A. Make more Profit
B. Motivate better
Performance
C. Control Expenses
D. Pay High Salaries
D’. Don’t pay High Salaries
Thinking Process elements included in the Fundamentals Exam
Because: Motivated employees deliver more profit
Because: Money is the ONLY motivator
Because: Expenses subtract from profit
Because: Salaries are a significant part of expenses
Because: This will create conflict with the team.Salaries are fixed.
STUDENT EXAMPLESTUDENT EXAMPLE
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Evaporating the Evaporating Cloud
A. Manage Production Effectively
B. Produce a
Lot
C. Keep Costs and Delivery
in Control
D. Increase the Work-In-
Process
D’. Decrease
the Work-In-Process
Assumption: We are measured upon our Production Level
Assumption: All machines must be keep busy all the time.
Assumption: We can’t increase WIP and Decrease WIP at the same time.
Assumption: WIP is expensive. High WIP delays flow time.
Assumption: Our profits are not high. Customers demand on-time delivery.
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There is an Injection for Every Conflict
• Arrow Assumption Injection
• ABProductive Deliver Max Capacity
• ACCost Effective Price on Value
• BDBusy Machines Keep Constraint 100%
• CD’ Expensive WIP Throughput Focus
• D/D’ Can’t do Both Buffer Constraint only
Chosen Injection:Focus on the Capacity Constrained Resource. Release work to the system at the rate of the Capacity Constrained Resource a Buffer Time in Advance (no sooner, no later).Use Buffer Management to improve the system.
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Sometimes TOC Solutions Are Counter Intuitive
• DBR: To get more out, put less in.
• CCPM: To finish project sooner, delay the Start.
• CCPM: To be safer, remove the safety.
• Replenishment: To get your products quicker to the customer, store them farther away.
• To Solve the Conflict, Ignore the conflict.
• To Make More Money, Sell at below Cost.
If you can’t find an injection, then just do what is opposite of what everyone else is doing (and then do whatever it takes to make it work).
Negative Branch Reservation Practice
• Story Line. I just had an exposure to the Negative Branch
Reservation Tool of the TOC Thinking Process. I can remember parts of it (the Good Side, the
Bad Side part sticks out). The class instructor now tells us to make a
Negative Branch Reservations as an in class quiz.
• Assignment. Draw the Negative Branch Reservation and the
results of the trimming Injection.
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Thinking Process elements included in the Fundamentals Exam
The Bad SideThe Good Side
Negative Branch Reservation
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I draw a NBR Tree
Thinking Process elements included in the Fundamentals Exam
....
..
..
The Bad SideThe Good Side
Negative Branch Reservation
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I draw a NBR Tree
Thinking Process elements included in the Fundamentals Exam
I learn better how to do the NBR
I learn better how to do the NBR
I’m not too good at the
NBR
I’m not too good at the
NBR
I might be called to present
I might be called to present
I Could look bad.
I Could look bad.
My NBR tree may not look
good
My NBR tree may not look
good
PracticePractice
Get Help from Each other
Get Help from Each other
Two idiots are better than one
Two idiots are better than one
We might learn from Each other
We might learn from Each other
I will look good!
I will look good!
We might Miss it.
We might Miss it.I Won’t be
aloneI Won’t be
alone
PreRequisite Tree Practice
• The AMBITIOUS TARGET: To Learn the Evaporating Cloud, the Negative
Branch Reservation and PRT (Ambitious Target) Tree in the next half hour.
What are the Obstacles? What are the Injections?
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Learn EC, NBR, PRT in 30 Mins
Obstacles Preventing
Intermediate Objectives
. .
Thinking Process elements included in the Fundamentals Exam 60
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Learn EC, NBR, PRT in 30 Mins
Obstacles Preventing
Intermediate ObjectivesWe are preoccupied.
We are sleepy (after lunch)
Too many calls
Details unknown to us
Not enough time
No writing materials
Not willing to accept learning
Not motivated.
Difficult, complex, hard
Full Time Call Concentration
Coffee
Switch off (no distractions)
We Know the Details
Plenty of time
Write on White Board
We paid for this class!
I really want to do this
With the right materials, this is easy!Thinking Process elements included in the Fundamentals Exam 61
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Sequencing the solution(Structure of the PRT)
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
I learn the EC, NBR, PRT in 30 Mins.
.
.
.
.
.
.
Thinking Process elements included in the Fundamentals Exam
Categories of Legitimate ReservationCategories of Legitimate ReservationUsed to Scrutinize All Logic TreesUsed to Scrutinize All Logic Trees
• First: Clarity
• Second: Entity ExistenceCausality
• Third Cause InsufficiencyAdditional
CauseCause ReversalPredicted EffectTautology
The CauseThe Cause
The EffectThe Effect
This simple set of rules, which compiles all the key elements necessary This simple set of rules, which compiles all the key elements necessary and sufficient for anyone to validate or invalidate logic, is one of Eliyhau M. and sufficient for anyone to validate or invalidate logic, is one of Eliyhau M. Goldratt’s significant contribution to thinking.Goldratt’s significant contribution to thinking. 63© Washington State University-2010
Resistance to Change
• Why don’t People Change? Resistance to change is a good thing. It prevents
most un-needed changes. People resist because they don’t understand the
value of the change and / or see significant negative branches without a way to deal with them.
There are six basic layers of resistance and six methods to overcome them.
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Layers of Resistance
• Layer 1. Disagree on the problem Solution: Agree on the problem (CRT)
• Layer 2. Disagree on the direction of the solution Solution: Agree on the direction of the solution (EC)
• Layer 3. Disagree that the solution solves the problem. Solution: Agree that the solution solves the problem (FRT)
• Layer 4. Yes, But, there are potential Negative consequences. Solution: Agree that the solution will not lead to any significant
negative effects (NBR)
• Layer 5. Yes. But, there are obstacles to implementing the solution. Solution: Agree on the way to overcome any obstacles that might
block or distort implementation of the solution (PRT)
• Layer 6. Unverbalized fears Solution: Overcome Unverbalized fears (TT)
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Categories of Legitimate Categories of Legitimate Reservation: CLR – ClarityReservation: CLR – Clarity
A School only for Pretty Girls? Or, is it a Pretty School for young girls? Or, just a very Little School? Could it be a school for one particularly Pretty Girl (you missed the apostrophe)? Are there boys there too? Does the building look particularly nice? What is the enrollment?
This is a pretty little girls school
This is a small school for girls
Expressing logic visually gives the opportunity for scrutiny often missed when voiced only.
66© Washington State University-2010
CLR – Entity ExistenceCLR – Entity Existence
Entity Existence Reservation: “Do these things really exist in your world?”
Operating costs of the car are of little concern
There is free maintenance for 100,000 miles
The exterior appearance of the car doesn’t matter
A brand new Lexus costs $15,000
67© Washington State University-2010
CLR – CausalityCLR – Causality
Causality: Show me how the parts in the Effect (at the point of the arrow) come from the Cause (from the tail).
I open a Savings Account
I receive 20% interest
I want to be different
I need pants like Joe’s
My roommate has a car
I need a car
I buy stock
I become a millionaire
There are problems with each one.The Cause
The Effect
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CLR – Cause InsufficiencyCLR – Cause Insufficiency
Insufficiency Reservation: Your Group needs to complete a good Group Project too.
I get excellent grades in Class
My Project goes well
I turn-in good homework
My Group Project goes well
Insufficiency Reservation: You Need to do your Project well.
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CLR – (More on Insufficiency)CLR – (More on Insufficiency)
Is it sufficient?
Not without the Triangle!
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CLR – Additional CauseCLR – Additional Cause
I don’t get good Gas Mileage
My Truck is large
Additional Cause Reservation:
I carry heavy loads
Additional Cause Reservation:
I drive too fast
Ah-Ha! We see an Ah-Ha! We see an area were area were improvement is improvement is possible.possible.
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CLR – Cause ReversalCLR – Cause Reversal
My Garage is full of stuff.
My Garage is too small.
The Garage didn’t The Garage didn’t create all the extra create all the extra things.things.
My Garage is full of stuff
My Garage is too small.
I can’t get my car in the Garage.
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CLR – Predicted EffectCLR – Predicted Effect
Our Incomeis too low
We don’t have enough
money to pay our
bills
Predicted Effect Reservation: If our income is too low, I would expect to see most people with the same income unable to pay their bills.
Others with the same income would not be
able to pay their bills
Many others with same or
less income do pay their bills
And yet, I see lots of people with the same or less income paying their bills just fine.
We buy too many things
we really don’t need
Discovery Happens!
We have too many bills
The Most Difficult CLR to use (you have to think).
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10. There is a
Chicken
20. There is an Egg
Too Tight a Logic Loop
CLR-Tautology ReservationCLR-Tautology ReservationA Too Tight a Logical LoopA Too Tight a Logical Loop
A Longer Logical LoopResolves the Age Old Question
20. There is a fertile Egg
16. There is a Female Chicken
14. There is a Male Chicken
OR
11. A Male and Female Chicken can produce a
fertile Egg
But, maybe there were two eggs first!
Most Frequent Logical Error!
74© Washington State University-2010
CLR – TautologyCLR – TautologyThe Cause is the ExcuseThe Cause is the Excuse
• The Circular Logic The Circular Logic of the of the CauseCause is is accepted accepted becausebecause of the of the EffectEffect. .
• “ “How do you know the Beavers are a lousy Team?”How do you know the Beavers are a lousy Team?”• “ “BecauseBecause, they lost the game didn’t they!”, they lost the game didn’t they!”
The Beavers lost the game
The Beavers are a lousy team.
• Whenever you hear, a Whenever you hear, a BECAUSEBECAUSE, , that is the that is the samesame as the as the EffectEffect you have you have a Tautology (bad logic).a Tautology (bad logic).
The CauseThe Cause
The EffectThe Effect
Most Frequent Logical Error!
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CLR – TautologyCLR – Tautology “The Cause is Hard to Define”“The Cause is Hard to Define”
• To resolve the Tautology, the To resolve the Tautology, the Cause Cause needs to be something needs to be something that can be determined and challenged; that can be determined and challenged; Not an Abstract ConceptNot an Abstract Concept. .
•In this case, the abstract word is “lousy”. What does that In this case, the abstract word is “lousy”. What does that mean? We need another substantial meaning.mean? We need another substantial meaning.
The Beavers lost the game
The Beavers are a lousy team.
• When the BECAUSE is ABSTRACT, When the BECAUSE is ABSTRACT, we need to dig further.we need to dig further.
• The Circular Logic of the Tautology The Circular Logic of the Tautology comes from a comes from a CauseCause which is abstract; which is abstract; difficult to determine, define or quantify.difficult to determine, define or quantify.• So, too often the So, too often the CauseCause is not is not challenged.challenged.• And, it seems the undefined And, it seems the undefined CauseCause is is accepted accepted becausebecause of the of the EffectEffect. .
Most Frequent Logical Error!
76© Washington State University-2010
CLR – Tautology: Searching CLR – Tautology: Searching For An Alternate ConnectionFor An Alternate Connection
The Beavers lost the game
The Beavers are a lousy team.
The Beavers play a lousy game
The Beavers don’t prepare well for games
The Beavers don’t execute
well
The Beavers are depressed by their
mistakes
People feel bad when they make
dumb mistakes
The Beavers are perceived as a
lousy team.
The Beavers may not be so bad.
The Beavers face an easy
team
The Beavers are in a slump
They are not thinking clearly
Most Frequent Logical Error!
77© Washington State University-2010
How Do Tautologies How Do Tautologies Happen?Happen?
I tell them I tell them what to dowhat to do
They don’t They don’t do itdo it
I push themI push them
They still They still don’t do itdon’t do it
I push them I push them harderharder
They are They are obstinateobstinate
I push them I push them hardhard
They are They are obstinateobstinate
Cause for Tautology is Cause for Tautology is unanswered questions.unanswered questions.Do we every stop to Do we every stop to think why they are not think why they are not answered? answered? Why don’t people do Why don’t people do what they are told?what they are told?Hum?Hum?
Most Frequent Logical Error!
78© Washington State University-2010
Cause for the Tautology Cause for the Tautology Pre-Conceived NotionPre-Conceived Notion
• In General, the most common error in “Jumping to Conclusions” is the Tautology!
He is a He is a jerkjerk
He won’t He won’t help ushelp us
They are Part of They are Part of Management!Management!
He’s IndianHe’s Indian
They are MuslimsThey are Muslims
He is BlackHe is Black
They are PoorThey are Poor
She’s a WomanShe’s a Woman
Men!Men!
Hum?Hum?What is the underlying reason for these crude remarks?What is the underlying reason for these crude remarks?
Sometimes a Tautology is a single statement.
Most Frequent Logical Error!
79© Washington State University-2010
Tautology is often a ‘Knee Jerk’Tautology is often a ‘Knee Jerk’
• When we hear, “BECAUSE” (same as Effect)…
• When the BECAUSE is ABSTRACT…
• When the ABSTRACT is DEROGITORY … It is probably a Tautology Logic Problem
• Basic Assumptions of the Theory of Constraints:
All People All People ThinkThink
All People are All People are GoodGood
Every action is logical Every action is logical (within the environment and in (within the environment and in
accordance with the individual’s accordance with the individual’s understanding of their ability to understanding of their ability to
change the environment)change the environment)Emotion is evidence of passionate, logical thinking!
80© Washington State University-2010
Practice Correcting a Knee Jerk Practice Correcting a Knee Jerk
They are Part of They are Part of Management!Management!
Why Should they?Why Should they?
I’m importantI’m important
I do a good jobI do a good job
Management’s Role is to Management’s Role is to oversee systemic oversee systemic
performanceperformance
Management is Management is IncompetentIncompetent=>=>
I don’t get I don’t get what I needwhat I need
Management Management Ignores meIgnores me
Management Management Doesn’t Doesn’t
RespondRespond
Management Management Doesn’t Doesn’t ListenListen
I’m glad it’s not me!I’m glad it’s not me!
I am not the I am not the system’s system’s problemproblemManagement must Management must
be dealing with be dealing with some very serious some very serious
needsneeds
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An Additional TOC InsightAn Additional TOC Insight
• Systems are Inherently Simple
E=MC2
In free markets, economic stability is controlled by the Interest Rate.
System A System B
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Look for a Simple Solution!Look for a Simple Solution!
The The homework homework is too hardis too hard
I can’t do I can’t do my my
homeworkhomework
I don’t know what the words meanI don’t know what the words mean
I don’t understand the problemsI don’t understand the problems
I don’t understand the bookI don’t understand the book
Lecture doesn’t make senseLecture doesn’t make sense
I can’t see the connectionsI can’t see the connections
There are too many conceptsThere are too many concepts
It’s too complicatedIt’s too complicated
Did you ask Did you ask anyone for anyone for clarity?clarity?
No.No.
83© Washington State University-2010
Thinking Processes
The Goal: Improve Systems (Remove UDEs)The Measure: Number, Scope and Severity of Problems The Constraint: Core Conflict
“There once was an old SystemThat lived in a shoe.That had so many UDEs It didn’t know what to do…”
UDE
UDEUDE
UDEUDE UDE
UDE
UDE
UDE
UDE
UDE
UDE
UDE
UDE UDEUDEUDE
UDEUDE
84© Washington State University-2010
Thinking Processes
The Analysis:The Paradigm Shift: Cause the Erroneous Assumption to Go Away (Fix Rules, Measures)Let the System Behave Correctly!
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Thinking Process Results
What do we learn here to apply to
Daily Lives?
Conflicts can be Resolved.
Negative Branches should be Trimmed.
Be “James Bond” -- A Few, Rightly Placed Injections can Make Dramatic Improvement!
We can achieve Ambitious Targets
Communication is Greatly Improved!
Buy-In Happens!
Problems Go Away- Are Replaced By Desirable Entities!
86© Washington State University-2010
Thinking Processes Lessons Learned
• There are Answers -- Don’t Despair• Look for Cause-->Effect Relationships• Think Clearly
Clarity, Causality, Insufficiency, Additional Cause, Predicted Effect, Cause Reversal
• Don’t Accept Compromise (No Win-Lose or Lose-Lose) Learn to find Breakthrough Injections “A Cloud-A-Day keeps the Conflict Away”
• Become Justifiably Self-Confident Enter a Complex World, Find the One Spot that
Needs Fixing, Fix it. Then, Look for the Next Spot to Fix 87© Washington State University-2010