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Future Energy: Renewable options
Biomass - different types, sources of biofuels - potentially v. large resourcebut transportation and logistics issues
Hydropower - advantage of peak load capability
Solar photovoltaic and solar thermal
Wind doubled every 3 yrs for past decade government supportnecessary. More political than technology hurdles ?
Geothermal hot fluids that can be reached economically
Tidal schemes localized solutions, but highly predictable
Nuclear
Most require stable investment and political climates and subsidies/tax credits
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Biofuels: DriversShell is currently the lead distributor of biofuels, ca. 3 billion liters in 2005.All based on first generation biofuels, i.e. corn ethanol, and FAME.
Crude oil replacement
Fits with Shells Sustainable Development strategy, improved feedstockflexibility
EU directive EC 2003/30/EC: 2 % by 31 December 20055.75 % by 31 December 2010 on
energy content basis of all petrol and diesel for transport purposes
Mandatory blending from 2007+ inHolland, Austria, Czech Republic,Germany, Sweden, Brazil and Thailand
US Renewables Fuels Standard targetsand UK Renewable Transport Fuel Obligation
Fossil-fuel based CO 2 emission abatement
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Shells biofuels/biorefining activities
Iogen: ethanol from straw
CHORen: paraffins via gasification and FT synthesis
BIOCOUP: pan-European consortium on pyrolysis oil upgrading
Others
Aim: to develop second generation bio-based componentsvia partnerships
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Waste biomass or energy crops as
feedstock > 5 GT/a availableResidues from agriculture and forestry
Main product GT/a GT/a residue
Rice 0.6 1.1 straw, husks
Sugar 0.08 0.7 tops, bagasse
Wheat 0.6 1.0 straw
Soybeans 0.16 0.6 straw, pods
Corn 0.6 1.2 stalks
Wood construction 0.5 0.3 waste
paper 0.5 0.3 waste
Sourcing must be done in a sustainable way!
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0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
1 9 9 8
2 0 0 0
2 0 0 2
2 0 0 4
2 0 0 6
2 0 0 8
2 0 1 0
2 0 1 2
2 0 1 4
2 0 1 6
2 0 1 8
2 0 2 0
M i l l i o n
t o n s
2% biofuels in 2005 5.75% biofuels in 2010
diesel
gasoline
bio-fuel
? % biofuels after 2010
USAbio-fuel based on Vision for bio-energy and bio-based productsin the USA
Projected transport fuels demands
EU15bio-fuels based on EUdirective
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
M i l l i o n
t o n
( o i l e q u
i v . )
bio-fuel
diesel
gasoline
gasoline + diesel
Source:Harts fuel conference, May 2001
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Various biofuels options
For gasoline : Bio-ethanol from fermentation of glucose to ethanol by S. Cerevisiae
using sugar cane (Brazil), sugar beet, corn stover (USA) Iogen , Abengoa, NREL etc ETBE Ethyl ethers of Light Cracked Naphthas others
For diesel : FAMEs from trans-esterification of vegetable oils CHORen BTL Hydrotreated vegetable oils (e.g. Neste NExBTL,
Petrobras H-Bio, BP etc) dme (Volvo) others
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Iogen: ethanol from ligno-cellulosicbiomass
Shell took minority sharein Iogen (~US$ 30 mln)
Higher CO 2 reductionpotential (90%)
April 2004 start of eco-
ethanol production Full scale commercial
plant expected 2008/9 Capacity 100-200 million
litre; 350 700 Kton dmwheat straw
Photos: Iogen
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CHOren: BTL from lignin or ligno-cellulosic biomass
Shell took minority share in CHOREN
Higher CO 2 reduction potential
Carbo-V - process for syngas production;FT-synthesis from Shell
Pilot plant in Freiberg is running
Small scale demonstration plant:18 million
litre BTL capacity; start up in 2007 inFreiberg/D (67 kton biomass feedstock/a)
Large scale industrial plant: 200 kton BTL/a,
planned for 2009/10 in Germany;1 million ton/a feedstock requirement
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Biorefining
(Co)processing triglycerides in standard refinery units
Anonymised products - removal of O has fuel energy density benefits Complementary to the blending of discrete bio-components
Seamless integration of products in diesel supply chain and allowsphased implementation
Technical and economic challenges
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Some of our issues and concerns
Not all biofuel components generate the same CO2/GHG benefits.
There should be internationally recognised systems to determine this -it might be worth considering biofuel legislations based on CO2/GHGbenefits.
Biofuel sustainability is a key concern for Shell - by sustainability wemean environmental and social dimensions involved in the productionof the biofuel components, from biomass to end-product.
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Conclusions
Renewables will remain a complex and varying mix real winnersnot yet clear but biofuels expected to be a major contributor
Bio-fuels are real, Shell is actively involved in developing/investingin biofuels initiatives
Shell footprint global reach/global responsibilities