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18-Month OutlookOctober 2003 - March 2005
18-Month OutlookOctober 2003 - March 2005
Presented by
Greg HineIMO Long-Term Forecasts and Assessments
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Presentation OutlinePresentation Outline
• Introduction
• Demand forecast
• Resource assessment
• Transmission assessment
• Inputs
• Comparisons
• Results
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Separate PresentationsSeparate Presentations
• This presentation focuses on specific Outlook inputs, comparisons with previous Outlooks and results
• Another presentation focuses on the market rules, market manuals and the methodology to complete demand forecast, resource assessment and transmission assessment
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IntroductionIntroduction
• IMO’s latest 18-Month Outlook covers October 2003 - March 2005
• published September 24, 2003 @ www.theIMO.com
• four documents on IMO web-site:• 18-Month Outlook (main document)
• 18-Month Demand Forecast
• Outlook Methodology
• Ontario Transmission System
• spreadsheet tables
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Demand ForecastDemand Forecast
• actual load, weather , economic
data through to the end of June
2003
• impact of new data captures the
latest relative sensitivity and
relationships between load and
weather
• Forecast of economic variables
as of July 2003
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Variable Impact on Daily Peak DemandVariable Impact on Daily Peak Demand
• Temperature >16 C +1C +380 MW
• Temperature <10C -1C +110 MW
• Wind Summer -1km/h +10 MW
• Wind Winter +1km/h +10 MW
• Christmas Day -4700 MW
• Monday vs. Sunday +2000 MW
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Data Impact on ModelData Impact on Model
• System increasingly sensitive to high temperatures• but rate of increase is slowing
• System continues to be less sensitive to low temperatures• but rate of decrease is slowing
• Level of economic activity is having a smaller impact on demand
• due to shifting demand to off-peak times
• growth non-energy intensive sector of the economy
• Applies to both peak and energy demand
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Economic OutlookEconomic Outlook
• Outlook for the Ontario economy positive but lower than the forecast in the previous 18-Month Outlook
• World economic climate
• Sluggish U.S. recovery
• Economic data mixed
• Risk to the forecast is mostly on the “downside”
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Changes to the Forecast2003Q3 minus 2003Q2 (monthly)Changes to the Forecast2003Q3 minus 2003Q2 (monthly)
-250
-200
-150
-100
-50
0
50
100
150
200
250
Oc
t-0
3
De
c-0
3
Fe
b-0
4
Ap
r-0
4
Ju
n-0
4
Au
g-0
4
Oc
t-0
4
De
c-0
4
En
erg
y (G
Wh
)
-250
-200
-150
-100
-50
0
50
100
150
200
250
Pea
k (M
W)
Energy (TWh) Peak (MW)
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Changes to the Peak Forecast 2003Q3 minus 2003Q2 (weekly) Changes to the Peak Forecast
2003Q3 minus 2003Q2 (weekly)
-300
-200
-100
0
100
200
300
Oc
t-0
3
De
c-0
3
Fe
b-0
4
Ap
r-0
4
Ju
n-0
4
Au
g-0
4
Oc
t-0
4
De
c-0
4
Pea
k (M
W)
Normal Forecast (MW) Extreme Forecast (MW)
12
15,000
17,000
19,000
21,000
23,000
25,000
27,000
29,000
5-M
ay-0
2
11-A
ug-02
17-N
ov-02
23-F
eb-0
3
1-Ju
n-03
7-Sep
-03
14-D
ec-0
3
21-M
ar-0
4
27-J
un-04
3-Oct
-04
9-Ja
n-05
Ho
url
y P
ea
k D
em
an
d (
MW
)
Weather Corrected Actual
Extreme Weather
Mild Weather
Actual
Normal Weather Forecast
Weekly Peak DemandsActual & Forecast
Weekly Peak DemandsActual & Forecast
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15,000
17,000
19,000
21,000
23,000
25,000
27,000
29,000
5-M
ay-0
2
11-A
ug-02
17-N
ov-02
23-F
eb-0
3
1-Ju
n-03
7-Sep
-03
14-D
ec-0
3
21-M
ar-0
4
27-J
un-04
3-Oct
-04
9-Ja
n-05
Ho
url
y P
ea
k D
em
an
d (
MW
)
Weather Corrected Actual
Extreme Weather
Mild Weather
Actual
Normal Weather Forecast
Weekly Peak DemandsActual & Forecast
Weekly Peak DemandsActual & Forecast
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Weather ScenariosNovember to March
Weather ScenariosNovember to March
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
222-N
ov-0
3
9-N
ov-0
3
16-N
ov-0
3
23-N
ov-0
3
30-N
ov-0
3
7-D
ec-0
3
14-D
ec-0
3
21-D
ec-0
3
28-D
ec-0
3
4-J
an
-04
11-J
an
-04
18-J
an
-04
25-J
an
-04
1-F
eb
-04
8-F
eb
-04
15-F
eb
-04
22-F
eb
-04
29-F
eb
-04
7-M
ar-
04
14-M
ar-
04
21-M
ar-
04
28-M
ar-
04
TH
I (°
C )
Extreme Weather
Normal Less 1 LFU
Normal Weather Forecast
Normal Plus 1 LFU
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Weather Scenarios & 2001-02November to March
Weather Scenarios & 2001-02November to March
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
2-N
ov-
03
9-N
ov-
03
16-N
ov-
03
23-N
ov-
03
30-N
ov-
03
7-D
ec-0
3
14-D
ec-0
3
21-D
ec-0
3
28-D
ec-0
3
4-Ja
n-0
4
11-J
an-0
4
18-J
an-0
4
25-J
an-0
4
1-F
eb-0
4
8-F
eb-0
4
15-F
eb-0
4
22-F
eb-0
4
29-F
eb-0
4
7-M
ar-0
4
14-M
ar-0
4
21-M
ar-0
4
28-M
ar-0
4
TH
I (°C
)
2001-02
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Weather Scenarios & 2002-03November to March
Weather Scenarios & 2002-03November to March
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
2-N
ov-
03
9-N
ov-
03
16-N
ov-
03
23-N
ov-
03
30-N
ov-
03
7-D
ec-0
3
14-D
ec-0
3
21-D
ec-0
3
28-D
ec-0
3
4-Ja
n-0
4
11-J
an-0
4
18-J
an-0
4
25-J
an-0
4
1-F
eb-0
4
8-F
eb-0
4
15-F
eb-0
4
22-F
eb-0
4
29-F
eb-0
4
7-M
ar-0
4
14-M
ar-0
4
21-M
ar-0
4
28-M
ar-0
4
TH
I (°C
)
2002-03
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Forecast DemandsForecast Demands
Normal Peak(MW)
ExpectedSeasonal Peak
(MW)
Extreme Peak(MW)
Summer 2003 23,696 25,852 26,408
Winter2003/2004
24,154 25,452 26,166
Summer 2004 24,047 26,195 26,665
Season
Normal Weather Peak (MW)
Expected Seasonal Peak (MW)
Extreme Weather Peak (MW)
Winter 2004 24,054 25,317 26,023Summer 2004 23,835 25,995 26,469Winter 2005 24,181 25,369 26,150
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Existing Resources: TotalExisting Resources: Total
* Bruce “A” units not included
Capacity(MW)
Fuel Type
10,836 Nuclear7,546 Coal4,364 Oil / Gas7,669 Hydroelectric
66 Miscellaneous
30,481 MWat 94 stations
Number of
Stations45
22612
Capacity(MW)
Fuel Type
10,836 Nuclear7,546 Coal4,364 Oil / Gas7,682 Hydroelectric
66 Miscellaneous
30,494 MWat 94 stations
Number of
Stations45
22612
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New Generation ProjectsNew Generation Projects
• No additional Pickering A units are scheduled to be returned to service during the Outlook period.
(in Outlook period and currently under construction)
Proponent/Project NameCapacity
MWConnection Applicant's
Estimated I/S DateBruce Power Inc. - Bruce A G4 770 April 2003*Bruce Power Inc. - Bruce A G3 770 June 2003*ATCO - Brighton Beach 578 March 2004Imperial Oil 98 April 2004Total 2216* estimated restart date.
Proponent/Project Name Capacity MWConnection Applicant's
Estimated I/S DateBruce Power Inc. - Bruce A G4 770 MW October 2003 *
Bruce Power Inc. - Bruce A G3 770 MW November 2003 *
Imperial Oil 98 MW April 2004
ATCO - Brighton Beach 578 MW May 2004
Total for Study Period 2,216 MW
* estimated restart date
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Resource ScenariosResource Scenarios
Existing Resource Scenario
• all existing resources one Pickering-A unit is included
• no new generation project additions
• 0 MW of price sensitive demand
Planned Resource Scenario
• all existing resourcesone Pickering-A unit is included
• new generation project additions
• 300 MW of price sensitive demand
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Polling QuestionPolling Question
• On average what level of resources do you expect will materialize over the next 18 months?• (a) less than assumed under ERS
• (b) about the same as assumed under ERS
• (c ) more than ERS, but less than PRS
• (d) about the same as assumed under PRS
• (e) more than assumed under PRS
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Available and Required ResourcesExisting Resource Scenario
Available and Required ResourcesExisting Resource Scenario
Ontario Market Demand
(Normal Weather)
17,000
19,000
21,000
23,000
25,000
27,000
29,000
31,000
06 Apr 2003 06 Jul 2003 05 Oct 2003 04 Jan 2004 04 Apr 2004 04 Jul 2004Week Ending
MW
Required Resources Existing Resource Scenario
Available ResourcesExisting Resource Scenario
17,000
19,000
21,000
23,000
25,000
27,000
29,000
31,000
05 Oct 2003 04 Jan 2004 04 Apr 2004 04 Jul 2004 03 Oct 2004 02 Jan 2005Week Ending
MW
Required Resources Existing Resource Scenario
Available ResourcesExisting Resource Scenario
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Available and Required ResourcesPlanned Resource Scenario
Available and Required ResourcesPlanned Resource Scenario
Ontario Market Demand
(Normal Weather)
17,000
19,000
21,000
23,000
25,000
27,000
29,000
31,000
06 Apr 2003 06 Jul 2003 05 Oct 2003 04 Jan 2004 04 Apr 2004 04 Jul 2004Week Ending
MW
Required ResourcesPlanned Resource Scenario
Available ResourcesPlanned Resource Scenario
17,000
19,000
21,000
23,000
25,000
27,000
29,000
31,000
05 Oct 2003 04 Jan 2004 04 Apr 2004 04 Jul 2004 03 Oct 2004 02 Jan 2005Week Ending
MW
Required ResourcesPlanned Resource Scenario
Available ResourcesPlanned Resource Scenario
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Reserve Margins: Planned Resource Scenario
Reserve Margins: Planned Resource Scenario
Ontario Market Demand
(Normal Weather)
-5,000
-4,000
-3,000
-2,000
-1,000
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
06 Apr 2003 06 Jul 2003 05 Oct 2003 04 Jan 2004 04 Apr 2004 04 Jul 2004
Week Ending
Mar
gin
[M
W]
Planned Resource Scenario
Reserve Margin = Available Resources - Required Resources
Existing Resource Scenario
-7,000
-5,000
-3,000
-1,000
1,000
3,000
5,000
7,000
05 Oct 2003 04 Jan 2004 04 Apr 2004 04 Jul 2004 03 Oct 2004 02 Jan 2005
Week Ending
Mar
gin
[M
W]
Planned Resource Scenario
Reserve Margin = Available Resources - Required Resources
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Reserve Margins: Existing Resource Scenario and
Planned Resource Scenario
Reserve Margins: Existing Resource Scenario and
Planned Resource Scenario
Ontario Market Demand
(Normal Weather)
-5,000
-4,000
-3,000
-2,000
-1,000
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
06 Apr 2003 06 Jul 2003 05 Oct 2003 04 Jan 2004 04 Apr 2004 04 Jul 2004
Week Ending
Mar
gin
[M
W]
Planned Resource Scenario
Reserve Margin = Available Resources - Required Resources
Existing Resource Scenario
-7,000
-5,000
-3,000
-1,000
1,000
3,000
5,000
7,000
05 Oct 2003 04 Jan 2004 04 Apr 2004 04 Jul 2004 03 Oct 2004 02 Jan 2005
Week Ending
Mar
gin
[M
W]
Planned Resource Scenario
Reserve Margin = Available Resources - Required Resources
Existing Resource Scenario
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Reserve Margins: Extreme Weather Existing Resource Scenario and
Planned Resource Scenario
Reserve Margins: Extreme Weather Existing Resource Scenario and
Planned Resource Scenario
Ontario Market Demand
(Normal Weather)
Extreme weather is not expected every week
-5,000
-4,000
-3,000
-2,000
-1,000
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
06 Apr 2003 06 Jul 2003 05 Oct 2003 04 Jan 2004 04 Apr 2004 04 Jul 2004
Week Ending
Mar
gin
[M
W]
Planned Resource Scenario
Reserve Margin = Available Resources - Required Resources
Existing Resource Scenario
-7,000-6,000-5,000-4,000-3,000-2,000-1,000
01,0002,0003,0004,0005,0006,0007,000
05 Oct 2003 04 Jan 2004 04 Apr 2004 04 Jul 2004 03 Oct 2004
Week Ending
Mar
gin
[M
W]
Planned Resource Scenario
Reserve Margin = Available Resources - Required Resources
Existing Resource Scenario
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Sources of RiskSources of Risk
• Demand uncertainty (RR)
• Forced outage rate of resources (RR)
• New generation projects coming into service (ERS, PRS)
• Return of generators from planned outage (ERS, PRS, +)
• Hydroelectric resource utilization (RR,+)
• Extreme weather impact (separate scenarios,+)
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TransmissionTransmission
• Some outages impact internal and inter-tie limits (appendix C of main document)
• Windsor, Toronto and Thunder Bay reactive supply
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Overall ConclusionsOverall Conclusions
Normal Weather Extreme Weather
Existing Resources - many plannedoutages at risk
- imports requiredfor much of thestudy period
- most plannedoutages at risk
- imports maximizedduring peak periods
- risk of insufficientsupply
Planned Resources - opportunities foradditionaloutages/exports
- occasional importsmay be required
- many plannedoutages at risk
- imports requiredduring peak periods
Normal Weather Extreme Weather
Existing Resources - many plannedoutages at risk
- imports requiredfor much of thestudy period
- most plannedoutages at risk
- imports maximizedduring peak periods
- risk of insufficientsupply
Planned Resources - opportunities foradditionaloutages/exports
- occasional importsmay be required
- many plannedoutages at risk
- imports requiredduring peak periods
Normal Weather Extreme Weather
Existing Resources
- many planned outages atrisk
- imports required for much ofthe study period
- most planned outages at risk- imports maximized during peak periods- risk of insufficient supply
Planned Resources
- periods with opportunitiesfor additionaloutages/exports
- some periods where importsmay be required
- many planned outages at risk- imports required during peak
periods