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Manifesting the Upside of Down
Noetic Approaches for Citizen Activists to help transform the Perfect Storm
of disruptive surprises heading our way
Houston Community of the Institute of Noetic SciencesOctober 3, 2010
Oliver Markley, PhDwww.OWMarkley.org www.ImaginalVisioning.com
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About “The Upside of Down”
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Visioning the Upside of Down
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About “Manifesting”
•Bringing about
•Mobilizing
•Attracting
•Co-Creating
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Integrative (“Integral”) Activism
+
(2007)(2001)
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Presentation Outline• Main concepts (above)
• Historical context of research about the future
• Type II Wild Cards and Mild Cards
• Current context: Tipping points toward collapse and reformation
• Promising noetic and other approaches
• Cornucopia causality, imaginal visioning / manifestation, and integrative (“integral”) activism
• Experiential demonstrations
Historical ContextLooking at the Future
From the Past
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Early SRI Futures Research
Source: Harman, Markley & Rhyne, SRI (1973)
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Year 2000 Projections
Source: Harman, Markley & Rhyne, SRI (1973)
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Wild CardA possible event
that has a low probability but would have a huge impact
if it occurred
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Type II Wild Card
A wild card that has a high probability (to a “knowledgeable”)
but low credibility (to most others)
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Disruptive Overshooting of Carrying Capacity?
Source: O. Markley, “The Future of SpaceShip Earth” (1995)
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The Ecological Challenge
of Humankind “When one species attains a position of dominance over all the other species in the ecology of its planet, if it is both egocentrically greedy, and has a powerful set of technologies through which to amplify the expression of that greed, then unless that dominant species can find a way to limit or to transform itself and its greed-based systems into something more wholesome, it will foul its planetary nest as surely as the night follows the day ... perhaps even to its own extinction.”
Source: “The Fourth Wave: A Normative Forecast for the Future of Spaceship Earth,” by O.W. Markley, posted
online at www.inwardboundvisioning.com/Docs/SpaceShipEarth.htm
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Research on Type II Wild Cards
First major conclusion: If present trends continue...
A Tipping Point Toward Civilizational Collapse
(2008)
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Five “Tectonic” Stressors Toward
Catastrophe
(2006)
• Population stress: overall increase and the difference in rate of increase between rich and poor countries
• Energy stress: increasing scarcity and cost of conventional oil
• Environmental stress from mounting damage to land, sea and air
• Climate stress as the atmosphere responds to global heating
• Economic stress from the widening gap between rich and poor people within countries and between countries
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Envisioning the First to Hit:
Financial
(2006)
After the banking crisis in 2008, a
BBC documentary lays it bare:
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Showing of a four minute set of video clips from The Love of Money, a
three-hour BBC documentary seriesabout the sub-prime meltdown goes here
Current ContextLooking at the Future
From the Present
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More “Bubbles” Currently Threatening Global Financial Meltdown ~ 1-3 Years
• Real estate bubble
• Stock market bubble
• Discretionary spending bubble
• Dollar bubble
• Government debt bubble
Why would there be a dollar bubble before a gov’t debt bubble? Multi-bubble economy cannot be easily reflated.
Virtuous upward cycle of past few decades replaced by vicious downward spiral resulting from co-lined bubbles:
(2010)
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The “Issues Behind the Issues”
• The old American cultural dynamic: ambition, thrift, self-sacrifice, communitarian problem solving
• The new one: more interest in entertainment and credit-based consumption than in realistically addressing emerging problems that obviously threaten the sustainability of our way of life (“Bread and Circuses”)
• Corporate and financial systems driven to maximize short-term profit for investors
• Government systems increasingly driven by special-interest lobbying, especially by “The Street
• Mass media that filters and shapes the news to suit corporate owners
• Critical mass of systemic problems not being addressed.
(2009)
An audio recording and text transcript of an interview are posted at http://will.illinois.edu/mediamatters/show/sunday-august-30-2009/
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The “Upside of Down” Prophecy
Source: O. Markley, “A New Intelligence Methodology for Anticipating Disruptive Surprises” (2010)
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An Über Upside of Down Prophecy
(2008)
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Type II Mild CardA Type II wild card that would be
less disruptive and more benign, at least in the long run
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A Critical Mass of “Mild Cards”
(2007)(2007)
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Showing of all or part of Paul Hawkens’ six min. 2006 Blessed Unrest
Bioneers speech onYouTube goes here
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Riane Eisler’s Caring Economics Campaign
Free one hour Webinar training
October 5, 2010
www.partnershipway.org/
(2007)
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Pachamama Alliance Awaken the Dreamer / Change the
Dream Symposia
Houston contact:Donna Mosher281-681-8166
(2010)
Illustrative Writings re: Sustainable Resilience
(2009) (2010)
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Research to Identify Integral Mild Cards
•Integrate “Higher Self” and “shadow side” realities
•Transcend focus on well-being of individual persons or reference-groups
•Develop creative resiliance
•Be “appropriate” (non-sectarian, affordable, scalable, attractive, demonstrable)
Some criteria for noetic approaches:
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Some Promising Noetic “Best Practices”•Riane Eisler’s Partnership Education
and Caring Economics initiatives
•Awaken the Dreamer/Change the Dream Symposia of the Pachamama Alliance
•IONS Worldview Literacy Program
•Hopefully, my own audible software programs for imaginal visioning, manifestation and integral activism
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Integrative (“Integral”) Activism
Billiard Ball ~ Cornucopia Causality
(~)
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• Sub-quantum Akashic / Imaginal Field (esoteric arts & integral science)
• Holy Spirit (Christian)
• Schechinah (Jewish)
• Alayavijnana (Nondual Buddhism)
Alternative Names for the Source of
Cornucopic Inspiration
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Imaginal Visioning and Manifestation
Billiard Ball Causality Cornucopia Causality
Imagination / Imaginary Intuition / Imaginal
Visualizing Visioning
Expressive Receptive
Active Volition / Willfull / Yang Passive Volition / Willing / Yin
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A Cornucopic Meditation Experience
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Experiencing Imaginal
Time Travel
Preprint posted online:http://www.inwardboundvisioning.com/Docs/
MentalTimeTravel.htm
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What are the future implications of ...
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Other Key Sources