January 8, 2010
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IntroductionSustainable Development for Engineers
Karel Mulder http
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January 8, 2010 2
Sustainable Development Easter Island
http://aphs.worldnomads.com/stowa way/626/1_EasterIsland2.jpg
January 8, 2010 3
Sustainable Development Easter Island
Polynesian Society:
ClansRivalryReligious centers ‘ahu’
http://www.latin-american-architecture.info/EASTER
January 8, 2010 4
Sustainable Development Easter Island
Complex Society
Deforestation
Collapse
http://www.latin-american-architecture.info/EASTER
January 8, 2010 5
Sustainable Development Easter Island
Parallel?
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January 8, 2010 6
Sustainable Development Easter Island
Parallel?
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January 8, 2010 7
Sustainable Development Easter Island
Space Debris
Parallel?
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January 8, 2010 8
Sustainable Development Cultural Collapse
Soil salinitypumping, irrigation
Agricultural erosion, Dust Bowl
Monocultures: epidemics
January 8, 2010 9
Sustainable Development Problems Stimulate Creativity
Industrial revolution by shortage of wood
Steam engine
War economies, 1970s oil crises energy efficiency
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/5/ 5c/Watt_steam_pumping_engine.JPG
January 8, 2010 10
Sustainable Development
Sustainable Development is not just ‘environment’
• Closing loops in stead of emission prevention• Equity integrated
Sometimes contradictory:Organic waste water treatment: Sustainable?etc..
January 8, 2010 11
Sustainable Development
What is an environmental problem?
January 8, 2010 12
Sustainable Development What is an Environmental Problem?
Is climate change anenvironmental problem?
Not if it is a natural phenomenon
Correlation between solar activity and the
Earths’ average temperature
January 8, 2010 13
Sustainable Development What is an Environmental Problem?
Temperature predictions based on the activity of the sun: proof for anthropogenic climate change after 1980
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Sustainable Development
The world is our common heritage
Not just environmental efficiency but also equity
http://www.taz.de/blogs/wp-inst/wp- content/blogs.dir/44/files/2007/02/043 %20overcrowded%20train%20India.jpg
Environmentally efficient transport. Sustainable?
January 8, 2010 15
Sustainable Development Sustainable Development is Related to Interests
“As you know, I oppose the Kyoto Protocol because it exempts 80 percent of the world, including major population centers such as China and India, from compliance, and would cause serious harm to the U.S. economy. The Senate's vote, 95-0, shows that there is a clear consensus that the Kyoto Protocol is an unfair and ineffective means of addressing global climate change concerns.”
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January 8, 2010 16
Sustainable Development The Global Change
Halving our usage of environment/resources
Income in poor ‘South’ at least 50 % of ‘North’ in 2050
January 8, 2010 17
Sustainable Development I = P * A * T
I Environmental Impact
P Population
A Affluence Consumption of services and products per capita
T Technology Environmental burden per product or service unit
January 8, 2010 18
Sustainable Development 80-20 Rule of thumb
20 % of world population consumes 80 % of natural resources (fossil fuels, ores etc.)
Ergo: resource consumption Rich world is 16 times more than in Poor World
January 8, 2010 19
Sustainable Development Economic Growth
2002 2003 2004
USA 2,4 2,5 3,5
JAPAN 0,2 2 1,25
EU 1,1 0,75 2
INDUSTRIAL 1,6 1,75 2,5
Overig 4,5 4,5 5,25
Wereld 3 3 3,75
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January 8, 2010 20
Sustainable Development A Future in 50 Years?
North 2 % growth South 6-7 % growth
6-7 % growth for 50 years means: factor 18-302 % growth for 50 years means: factor 2.7
Result:- Equity difference reduced from factor 16 to factor 1.5-2.4- Growth resource consumption: Factor 5.8-8.2
January 8, 2010 21
Sustainable Development Population Growth
Population growth until 2050:
9,5 billion
January 8, 2010 22
Sustainable Development Population Prognosis
2000 2050WORLD 6.071 8.919More developed regions 1.194 1.220Less developed regions 4.877 7.699Least developed countries 668 1.675Africa 796 1.803Asia 3.680 5.222Europe 728 632Latin America + Carib. 520 768Northern America 316 448Oceania 31 46Data: UN Population Division, World Population in 2300 (http://www.un.org/esa/population/publications/longrange2/longrange2.htm)
January 8, 2010 23
Sustainable Development From Vision to Action: The Challenge
2000 2050
Global Population 1 *
1,5 *
Affluence/person 1 *
6 – 9 *
Pollution/affluence 1 =
1/9 – 1/27 =
Pollution 1 1 – 1/2
Improvement factor “20”
January 8, 2010 24
Sustainable Development
20502000 TIME
EFFE
CT
20
5
1
Improvement of products
and processes
Optimal use
Renewalby need
and function