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Population growth rates and trends
Topic 1 - Population Growth
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Western Bay of Plenty Sub-region
Includes: • Western Bay of
Plenty District Council
• Tauranga City Council
• Coastal Marine Area
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Population growth rate
Rapid population growth since the 1950s
Cameron Road showing the Bellevue Temperance Hotel, west end of Wharf Street about 1910.
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Population growth rate• Challenge - sustainable urban and rural
development
• Every week:
• 135 people arrive• 66 people leave • 30 new houses built• 60 more vehicles • 51 new jobs
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Future Growth Estimates
• 2001 population 130,000 – 14% up on 1996 census
• 198,000 by 2021
• 286,000 by 2051
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Population – NZ context
• 2051- 5.2% of national population
• Fourth or fifth most populated region in New Zealand
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Demographics
• Ageing changing households
• Traditional families likely to double
• Single, two-person households likely to treble by 2051
• Population ageing
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Aging population • Popular place to retire• Aging population• Demographic changes• Workforce capacity - baby
boomers retire • 5,000 people over 80 • By 2051, more than 35,000
Question / Pātai• Implications of aging
population?
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Young families, small households
• Families with young children• Changing household structures • Traditional families double by
2051• Single, two-person households
treble by 2051
Question / Pātai• Implications of more families with
young children?
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Non-permanent residents
• Other people:• Short-term visitors/tourists
• Second homeowners
• Itinerant, seasonal workers
• Population forecasts may understate the position
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Other factors• Changes in attractiveness:
– Improved tertiary facilities– Improved employment opportunities– Worsening environment from growth (traffic
congestion, reduced “small town” appeal)
Question / Pātai
• Larger population - positive or negative?
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Implications of population growth• More houses, new types • More business land • Better roads, more efficient
public transport • New, different health care • Safer walking, cycling • Access to high-quality water• More community, cultural and
educational facilities • Wastewater, stormwater
servicesPhotos © Tauranga City Council
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Implications of population growth
Preserve:• Environment
• Cultural heritage
• Open spacePhoto © Indigo Pacific
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SmartGrowth - restrain or manage growth?
• SmartGrowth strategy based on:– restraining scale or rate of growth not practical
at sub-regional level
– forecast growth will be accommodated
– development needs to constrained to protect important natural, physical or cultural features
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Restrained growth
Activity / Mahi
1. List reasons for restraining growth at sub- regional level
2. Develop an idea for retraining growth
3. Describe practical implications and limitations
4. List of reasons in favour of unrestrained growth at a sub-regional level
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True / False Quiz
• Western BOP does not include a marine area• Population increased 4% from 1996 census• Population forecasts only for permanent
residents• Population growth implications - better roads,
more efficient public transport?• SmartGrowth aims to constrain development in
some areas of the sub region