13 June 2020 Results Review 4QFY20
Eicher Motors
HSIE Research is also available on Bloomberg ERH HDF <GO> & Thomson Reuters
Mixed bag
Eicher’s 4QFY20 results were a mixed bag – while RE’s adj. EBITDA margins
came in at 23.1% (-210bps QoQ), which was above estimates, VECV reported a
loss of Rs 260mn due to the challenging demand environment. We will
monitor the margin trajectory at RE, particularly at a time when the demand
environment remains uncertain. We re-iterate our REDUCE rating on the
stock.
4QFY20 Financials: Volumes for RE at ~163k units were down 17/11%
YoY/QoQ. Realization grew 5% YoY to Rs 133k owing to BSVI transition
(over 60% of sales were of BSVI variants in 4Q). Standalone revenue fell
13/8%. YoY/QoQ. While reported EBITDA margins came in at 20.8% (-700/-
440bps YoY/QoQ), it included Rs 500mn of one-offs (recall of faulty brake
callipers from Europe and US; provisions for forex). Standalone PAT
declined 30% YoY to Rs 3.46bn, while consolidated profit declined 44% YoY
to ~Rs 3bn due to the weak performance at VECV (loss of Rs 260mn).
Call & other takeaways: (1) Small format stores: In 4QFY20, the co has
added 100 small format stores; 600+ stores were opened till Mar-20. (2) BSVI
transition: The co successfully made the BSVI transition and share of BSVI
vehicles was 60% in 4QFY20. The OEM has taken a price increase of Rs 3,000
on its products in April. (3) Situation post lockdown being lifted: 85-90% of
dealerships are now open and the co is witnessing encouraging booking
trends. North and South have seen positive traction; however, West is
lagging due to COVID affected states like Maharashtra and Gujarat. (4) New
launches and expansion: While Eicher is launching products for the export
markets, the models will have to be relevant for India as well. This will drive
scale and enable competitive pricing. In overseas markets, exclusive stores
have now almost doubled from 42 stores in 18 countries to 77 stores in 21
countries; 10 stores were added during this quarter. (5) Other highlights: A
significant component of RE’s demand comes from consumers replacing
their older bikes with the higher powered 350cc products. (6) All the major
capex programs such as the Vallum plant have now been commissioned.
Maintain REDUCE. We increase our FY21/22E EPS by 3/4%. We continue to
value the RE business at 20x PE and set a revised Mar-22 SOTP based TP of
Rs 15,020. Key risks: Faster than expected economic recovery, encouraging
response to new product launches.
Financial Summary (Consolidated) YE Mar (Rs
mn)
4Q
FY20
4Q
FY19
YoY
(%)
3Q
FY20
QoQ
(%) FY18 FY19 FY20P FY21E FY22E
Net Sales 22,082 25,001 (11.7) 23,710 (6.9) 89,650 97,971 91,536 83,843 95,151
EBITDA 4,322 6,847 (36.9) 5,923 (27.0) 28,076 29,031 21,804 18,708 22,500
APAT 3,043 5,448 (44.2) 4,987 (39.0) 21,797 22,203 18,275 15,282 19,221
Adj. EPS (Rs) 111.6 199.9 (44.2) 182.9 (39.0) 799.6 814.5 670.4 560.6 705.1
APAT
Growth (%) 27.2 1.9 (17.7) (16.4) 25.8
P/E (x)
21.1 20.7 25.2 30.1 23.9
RoE (%)
35.2 27.8 19.0 14.0 15.6
Source: Company, HSIE Research
REDUCE
CMP (as on 12 Jun 2020) Rs 16,857
Target Price Rs 15,020
NIFTY 9,973
KEY
CHANGES OLD NEW
Rating REDUCE REDUCE
Price Target Rs 13,800 Rs 15,020
EPS % FY21E FY22E
3% 4%
KEY STOCK DATA
Bloomberg code EIM IN
No. of Shares (mn) 27
MCap (Rs bn) / ($ mn) 460/6,069
6m avg traded value (Rs mn) 3,630
52 Week high / low Rs 23,450/12,450
STOCK PERFORMANCE (%)
3M 6M 12M
Absolute (%) (0.1) (23.2) (16.2)
Relative (%) (3.2) (6.5) (1.1)
SHAREHOLDING PATTERN (%)
Dec-19 Mar-20
Promoters 49.3 49.3
FIs & Local MFs 8.3 11.3
FPIs 31.2 27.7
Public & Others 11.2 11.8
Pledged Shares 0.0 0.0
Source : BSE
Aditya Makharia
+91-22-6171-7316
Mansi Lall
+91-22-6171-7357
Page | 2
Eicher Motors: Results Review 4QFY20
Quarterly Financial Snapshot: Standalone
Particulars (Rs mn) 4Q
FY20
4Q
FY19
YoY
(%)
3Q
FY20
QoQ
(%) FY20 FY19 YoY (%)
Volumes (in units) 162,870 196,162 (17.0) 182,791 (10.9) 695,839 826,098 (15.8)
Net ASP (Rs/veh) 133,818 127,425 5.0 129,302 3.5 130,454 118,563 10.0
Net sales (incl OOI) 21,795 24,996 (12.8) 23,635 (7.8) 90,775 97,945 (7.3)
Material Expenses 12,310 13,382 (8.0) 12,926 (4.8) 49,858 50,628 (1.5)
Employee Expenses 2,051 1,645 24.7 1,776 15.5 7,651 6,795 12.6
Other Operating Expenses 2,902 3,027 (4.1) 2,981 (2.7) 11,228 11,253 (0.2)
Total Expenditure 17,263 18,054 (4.4) 17,683 (2.4) 68,737 68,676 0.1
EBITDA 4,533 6,942 (34.7) 5,952 (23.9) 22,038 29,269 (24.7)
Depreciation 1,079 808 33.6 942 14.5 3,779 2,989 26.4
EBIT 3,454 6,134 (43.7) 5,010 (31.1) 18,259 26,279 (30.5)
Other Income 1,462 1,422 2.8 1,358 7.6 6,153 4,905 25.4
Interest Cost 25 8 208.8 27 (9.2) 109 30 263.2
PBT 4,891 7,549 (35.2) 6,341 (22.9) 24,303 31,155 (22.0)
Tax 1,429 2,744 (47.9) 1,452 (1.6) 5,265 10,785 (51.2)
RPAT 3,462 4,804 (27.9) 4,889 (29.2) 19,038 20,369 (6.5)
EO Items (Adj For Tax) - - - - - - (175) -
APAT 3,462 4,804 (27.9) 4,889 (29.2) 19,038 20,544 (7.3)
Adj EPS 127.0 176.2 (27.9) 179.4 (29.2) 698.4 753.6 (7.3)
Source: Company, HSIE Research
Quarterly Performance Analysis
As % of sales 4Q
FY20
4Q
FY19
YoY
(bps)
3Q
FY20
QoQ
(bps) FY20 FY19
YoY
(bps)
Material Expenses 56.5 53.5 294 54.7 179 54.9 51.7 323
Employee Expenses 9.4 6.6 283 7.5 190 8.4 6.9 149
Other Operating Expenses 13.3 12.1 120 12.6 70 12.4 11.5 88
Total Expenditure 79.2 72.2 698 74.8 439 75.7 70.1 561
EBITDA 20.8 27.8 (698) 25.2 (439) 24.3 29.9 (561)
RPAT 15.9 19.2 (334) 20.7 (480) 21.0 20.8 18
APAT 15.9 19.2 (334) 20.7 (480) 21.0 21.0 (0)
Tax as % of PBT 29.2 36.4 (714) 22.9 633 21.7 34.6 (1,295)
Source: Company, HSIE Research
Volumes declined 18/11%
YoY/QoQ owing to weak
macroeconomic
environment
Average realisations grew
on the back of price hike
taken on BSVI products;
which contributed 60% to
4QFY20 volumes
Depreciation charges were
higher as the Vallam plant
capacity is commissioned
EBITDA Margin included
one offs of Rs 500mn
(relating to fx provision
and brake calliper recall).
Adj. For the same, the
margin was 23.1%
Page | 3
Eicher Motors: Results Review 4QFY20
Quarterly Financials Snapshot: VECV
4Q
FY20
4Q
FY19
YoY
(%)
3Q
FY20
QoQ
(%) FY20 FY19
YoY
(%)
Volumes (in units) 11,629 21,010 (44.7) 12,391 (6.1) 48,721 72,969 (33.2)
Net Sales 21,010 32,090 (34.5) 21,640 (2.9) 85,240 116,000 (26.5)
EBITDA 380 2,740 (86.1) 1,330 (71.4) 4,010 9,720 (58.7)
EBITDA margin (%) 1.8 8.5 -673 bps 6.1 -434 bps 4.7 8.4 -367 bps
PAT (260) 1,390 (118.7) 300 (186.7) 570 4,750 (88.0)
Quarterly Financials Snapshot: Consolidated
4Q
FY20
4Q
FY19
YoY
(%)
3Q
FY20
QoQ
(%) FY20 FY19
YoY
(%)
Net sales (incl OOI) 22,082 25,001 (11.7) 23,710 (6.9) 91,536 97,971 (6.6)
EBITDA 4,322 6,847 (36.9) 5,923 (27.0) 21,803 29,031 (24.9)
EBITDA margin (%) 19.6 27.4 -781 bps 25.0 -541 bps 23.8 29.6 -581 bps
Depreciation 1,089 811 34.3 952 14.4 3,815 3,003 27.1
EBIT 3,233 6,036 (46.4) 4,971 (35.0) 17,988 26,028 (30.9)
Other Income 1,431 1,427 0.3 1,347 6.3 5,433 4,434 22.5
Interest Cost 55 21 158.4 43 29.8 189 73 157.6
PBT 4,609 7,441 (38.1) 6,275 (26.6) 23,232 30,389 (23.6)
Tax 1,426 2,748 (48.1) 1,454 (1.9) 5,275 10,770 (51.0)
Share of JV profit (140) 755 (118.6) 166 (184.6) 317 2,584 (87.7)
RPAT 3,043 5,448 (44.2) 4,987 (39.0) 18,274 22,028 (17.0)
EO Items (Adj For Tax) - - - - - - (175) -
APAT 3,043 5,448 (44.2) 4,987 (39.0) 18,274 22,203 (17.7)
Adj EPS 111.6 199.9 (44.2) 182.9 (39.0) 670.4 814.5 (17.7)
VECV margins at 1.8%
contracted 680/440bps
YoY/QoQ. The CV trends
remain weak
Page | 4
Eicher Motors: Results Review 4QFY20
RE volumes affected due to weak macros RE realizations grew owing to BSVI price hikes
Source: Company, HSIE Research
Source: Company, HSIE Research
RE’s EBITDA margin were impacted by one-offs VECV volumes remained weak
Source: Company, HSIE Research Source: Company, HSIE Research
VECV margins are impacted due to operating
deleverage
Rolling forward P/E band (x)
Source: Company, HSIE Research Source: Bloomberg, Company, HSIE Research
27
.4%
22
.5%
3.6
%
-5.9
%
-13
.6%
-18
.5% -2
0.7
% -6.0
%
-17
.0%
-25%
-15%
-5%
5%
15%
25%
35%
140
160
180
200
220
240
4Q
FY1
8
1Q
FY1
9
2Q
FY1
9
3Q
FY1
9
4Q
FY1
9
1Q
FY2
0
2Q
FY2
0
3Q
FY2
0
4Q
FY2
0
RE Volumes (in units '000) % YoY - RHS
5.4
%
3.9
%
7.3
%
10
.1% 1
4.4
%
13
.5% 14
.5%
7.2
%
5.0
%
0%
3%
6%
9%
12%
15%
100
105
110
115
120
125
130
135
4Q
FY1
8
1Q
FY1
9
2Q
FY1
9
3Q
FY1
9
4Q
FY1
9
1Q
FY2
0
2Q
FY2
0
3Q
FY2
0
4Q
FY2
0
Realisation (in Rs '000) % YoY - RHS3
2.3
%
32
.3%
29
.9%
29
.5%
27
.8%
25
.9%
25
.0%
25
.2%
20
.8%
20%
25%
30%
35%
4Q
FY1
8
1Q
FY1
9
2Q
FY1
9
3Q
FY1
9
4Q
FY1
9
1Q
FY2
0
2Q
FY2
0
3Q
FY2
0
4Q
FY2
0
EBITDA margin (%)
33
.2
41
.0
24
.5
4.3
(9.1
)
(18
.3)
(39
.2) (2
6.8
)
(44
.7)
-45
-30
-15
0
15
30
45
10
15
20
25
4Q
FY1
8
1Q
FY1
9
2Q
FY1
9
3Q
FY1
9
4Q
FY1
9
1Q
FY2
0
2Q
FY2
0
3Q
FY2
0
4Q
FY2
0
VECV Vols (in units '000) % YoY - RHS
9.5
%
9.2
%
9.0
%
6.8
%
8.5
%
5.5
%
5.2
% 6.1
%
1.8
%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
4Q
FY1
8
1Q
FY1
9
2Q
FY1
9
3Q
FY1
9
4Q
FY1
9
1Q
FY2
0
2Q
FY2
0
3Q
FY2
0
4Q
FY2
0
VECV EBITDA margin (%)
24
26
28
30
32
34
36
38
40
Jun
-15
Dec
-15
Jun
-16
Dec
-16
Jun
-17
Dec
-17
Jun
-18
Dec
-18
Jun
-19
Dec
-19
Jun
-20
P/E
Page | 5
Eicher Motors: Results Review 4QFY20
Harley Davidson is expanding beyond cruiser bikes as the segment is shrinking. See link
to our report- Two-wheelers: A changed landscape
Global sales of Harley Davidson were down 5% YoY in
2019 (in units)
USA 601cc+ Premium Motorcycle sales
Source: Company, HSIE Research
Source: Company, HSIE Research
Harley – PAN AMERICA 1250 ADV Harley Davidson Bronx – ‘Streetfighter’
Source: Company, HSIE Research Source: Company, HSIE Research
Volume assumptions
in units FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21E FY22E
RE 666,490 820,493 823,828 696,052 602,132 662,345
% YoY 10.9 23.1 0.4 (15.5) (13.5) 10.0
VECV 58,538 65,932 72,969 48,721 41,626 48,753
% YoY (7.2) 12.6 10.7 (33.2) (14.6) 17.1
Total volumes 725,028 886,425 896,797 744,773 643,758 711,098
% YoY 9.2 22.3 1.2 (17.0) (13.6) 10.5
RE average ASP (Rs) 104,687 108,098 118,890 130,414 139,201 143,619
% YoY 2.6 3.3 10.0 9.7 6.7 3.2
Source: Company, HSIE Research
190,000
210,000
230,000
250,000
270,000
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
550
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
US 601+ cc sales ('000 units) % YoY - RHS
Page | 6
Eicher Motors: Results Review 4QFY20
Valuation Summary
We have a REDUCE rating on Eicher with a revised TP of Rs 15,020
We continue to value the core RE business at 20x, which is at a 20% premium to mass market OEMs.
SOTP Valuation Stake held (%) Valuation methodology Multiple (x) Value/sh (Rs)
Royal Enfield 100 P/E on Mar-22E core EPS 20 14,685
VECV 54.4 P/E on Mar-22E 12 335
Target Price (Rs)
15,020
Change in Estimates
Rs mn New Old Change (%)
FY21E FY22E FY21E FY22E FY21E FY22E
Net Sales 83,843 95,151 82,026 92,399 2 3
EBITDA 18,708 22,500 17,886 21,492 5 5
EBITDA margin (%) 22.3 23.6 21.8 23.3 51 bps 39 bps
Adj PAT 15,282 19,221 14,783 18,461 3 4
Adj EPS (in Rs) 560.6 705.1 542.3 677.2 3 4
Source: HSIE Research
Peer set comparison
Mcap
(Rs bn)
CMP
(Rs/sh) Reco TP
Adj EPS (Rs/sh) P/E (x) RoE (%)
FY20E FY21E FY22E FY20E FY21E FY22E FY20E FY21E FY22E
Ashok Leyland 154 52 REDUCE 46 1.2 1.0 3.5 43.3 52.4 14.9 4.2 3.4 11.4
Bajaj Auto 806 2,784 ADD 2,850 176.2 149.4 167.6 15.8 18.6 16.6 22.9 18.2 18.8
Eicher Motors 460 16,857 REDUCE 15,020 670.4 560.6 705.1 25.2 30.1 23.9 19.0 14.0 15.6
Escorts Ltd. 120 977 BUY 950 55.4 49.9 63.1 17.6 19.6 15.5 15.1 12.0 12.2
Hero Motocorp 480 2,401 BUY 2,650 155.0 128.7 155.5 15.5 18.7 15.4 22.9 17.3 19.2
Maruti Suzuki 1,678 5,555 BUY 5,810 187.1 146.0 252.4 29.7 38.0 22.0 11.7 8.5 13.6
Source: HSIE Research
Page | 7
Eicher Motors: Results Review 4QFY20
Financials Consolidated Income Statement
(Rs mn) FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20P FY21E FY22E
Net Revenues 70,334 89,650 97,971 91,536 83,843 95,151
Growth (%) 13.9 27.5 9.3 (6.6) (8.4) 13.5
Material Expenses 37,045 46,435 50,574 49,959 46,686 52,319
Employee Expenses 4,263 5,737 7,024 7,958 7,460 8,276
Other Operating Expenses 7,287 9,402 11,341 11,815 10,989 12,056
Total Expenses 48,594 61,573 68,940 69,732 65,135 72,651
EBITDA 21,740 28,076 29,031 21,804 18,708 22,500
EBITDA Margin (%) 30.9 31.3 29.6 23.8 22.3 23.6
EBITDA Growth (%) 28.7 29 3 (25) (14) 20
Depreciation 1,538 2,233 3,003 3,815 3,817 4,084
EBIT 20,201 25,843 26,028 17,988 14,891 18,416
Other Income (Including EO Items) 1,813 601 4,259 5,433 5,298 6,015
Interest 36 53 73 188 192 201
PBT 21,979 26,390 30,214 23,233 19,997 24,230
Tax (Incl Deferred) 7,203 9,359 10,770 5,275 4,779 5,767
Share of profit from JV 1,895 2,566 2,584 317 64 758
RPAT 16,671 19,597 22,027 18,275 15,282 19,221
EO (Loss) / Profit (Net Of Tax) (460) (2,201) (175) - - -
APAT 17,131 21,797 22,203 18,275 15,282 19,221
APAT Growth (%) 28.0 27.2 1.9 (17.7) (16.4) 25.8
Adjusted EPS (Rs) 629.6 799.6 814.5 670.4 560.6 705.1
Source: Company, HSIE Research
Consolidated Balance Sheet
(Rs mn) FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20P FY21E FY22E
SOURCES OF FUNDS
Share Capital - Equity 272 273 273 273 273 273
Reserves 53,179 70,028 88,914 103,217 115,053 130,051
Total Shareholders Funds 53,451 70,301 89,187 103,489 115,325 130,324
Short Term Debt 444 1,508 1,868 1,961 2,059 2,162
Total Debt 444 1,508 1,868 1,961 2,059 2,162
Net Deferred Taxes 778 1,421 2,739 2,191 2,213 2,235
TOTAL SOURCES OF FUNDS 54,673 73,230 93,794 107,641 119,597 134,721
APPLICATION OF FUNDS
Net Block 8,728 15,017 18,746 21,430 20,854 22,872
CWIP 3,738 3,332 4,497 4,797 5,097 5,397
Investments 17,458 17,643 19,439 18,984 19,023 19,525
Total Non-current Assets 29,924 35,992 42,682 45,212 44,975 47,795
Cash & Equivalents 32,664 50,286 59,439 70,133 82,442 95,567
Inventories 3,359 3,946 6,334 6,019 5,283 5,996
Debtors 500 680 903 1,254 1,149 1,303
Other Current Assets 3,460 4,319 4,510 4,848 5,239 5,666
Total Current Assets 39,983 59,231 71,186 82,253 94,113 108,532
Creditors 8,327 11,719 12,341 11,536 10,567 11,992
Other Current Liabilities & Provns 6,907 10,274 7,734 8,288 8,924 9,614
Total Current Liabilities 15,234 21,992 20,075 19,824 19,491 21,606
Net Current Assets 24,749 37,238 51,111 62,429 74,622 86,926
TOTAL APPLICATION OF FUNDS 54,673 73,230 93,794 107,641 119,597 134,721
Source: Company, HSIE Research
Page | 8
Eicher Motors: Results Review 4QFY20
Consolidated Cash Flow (Rs mn) FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20P FY21E FY22E
Reported PBT 23,874 28,956 32,798 23,550 20,061 24,987
Non-operating & EO Items (1,813) (601) (4,259) (5,433) (5,298) (6,015)
Interest Expenses 36 53 73 188 192 201
Depreciation 1,538 2,233 3,003 3,815 3,817 4,084
Working Capital Change 1,815 5,133 (4,720) (624) 116 821
Tax Paid (6,784) (8,716) (9,452) (5,823) (4,757) (5,745)
OPERATING CASH FLOW ( a ) 18,666 27,058 17,443 15,674 14,131 18,334
Capex (5,117) (8,117) (7,897) (6,800) (3,541) (6,402)
Free Cash Flow (FCF) 13,548 18,942 9,546 8,874 10,590 11,932
Investments - (185) (1,797) 455 (39) (502)
Non-operating Income 1,813 601 4,259 5,433 5,298 6,015
INVESTING CASH FLOW ( b ) (3,304) (7,701) (5,435) (912) 1,718 (889)
Debt Issuance/(Repaid) 218 1,064 359 93 98 103
Interest Expenses (36) (53) (73) (188) (192) (201)
FCFE 13,731 19,953 9,832 8,780 10,496 11,834
Share Capital Issuance 3,420 746 832 (0) 0 -
Dividend (3,171) (3,493) (3,973) (3,973) (3,446) (4,222)
FINANCING CASH FLOW ( c ) 432 (1,736) (2,855) (4,068) (3,540) (4,321)
NET CASH FLOW (a+b+c) 15,793 17,622 9,153 10,694 12,310 13,125
Closing Cash & Equivalents 32,664 50,286 59,439 70,133 82,442 95,567
Key Ratios
FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20P FY21E FY22E
PROFITABILITY (%)
GPM 47.3 48.2 48.4 45.4 44.3 45.0
EBITDA Margin 30.9 31.3 29.6 23.8 22.3 23.6
EBIT Margin 28.7 28.8 26.6 19.7 17.8 19.4
APAT Margin 24.4 24.3 22.7 20.0 18.2 20.2
RoE 38.1 35.2 27.8 19.0 14.0 15.6
RoIC (or Core RoCE) 64.3 74.2 58.5 38.7 30.4 36.8
RoCE 32.9 28.9 23.5 18.0 13.5 14.6
EFFICIENCY
Tax Rate (%) 32.8 35.5 35.6 22.7 23.9 23.8
Fixed Asset Turnover (x) 8.1 6.0 5.2 4.3 4.0 4.2
Inventory (days) 17.4 16.1 23.6 24.0 23.0 23.0
Debtors (days) 2.6 2.8 3.4 5.0 5.0 5.0
Other Current Assets (days) 18.0 17.6 16.8 19.3 22.8 21.7
Payables (days) 43.2 47.7 46.0 46.0 46.0 46.0
Other Current Liab & Provns (days) 35.8 41.8 28.8 33.0 38.9 36.9
Cash Conversion Cycle (days) (41.1) (53.1) (31.0) (30.7) (34.0) (33.1)
Debt/EBITDA (x) (1.5) (1.7) (2.0) (3.1) (4.3) (4.2)
Net D/E (x) (0.6) (0.7) (0.6) (0.7) (0.7) (0.7)
Interest Coverage (x) 567.5 484.0 355.1 95.6 77.6 91.4
PER SHARE DATA (Rs)
EPS 629.6 799.6 814.5 670.4 560.6 705.1
CEPS 669.2 800.8 918.2 810.4 700.6 854.9
Dividend 100.0 110.0 125.1 125.1 108.5 132.9
Book Value 1,964 2,579 3,272 3,796 4,231 4,781
VALUATION
P/E (x) 26.8 21.1 20.7 25.2 30.1 23.9
P/BV (x) 8.6 6.5 5.2 4.4 4.0 3.5
EV/EBITDA (x) 19.6 14.6 13.8 18.0 20.3 16.3
EV/Revenues (x) 6.1 4.6 4.1 4.3 4.5 3.8
OCF/EV (%) 4.4 6.6 4.3 4.0 3.7 5.0
FCF/EV (%) 3.2 4.6 2.4 2.3 2.8 3.3
FCFE/Mkt Cap (%) 3.0 4.3 2.1 1.9 2.3 2.6
Dividend Yield (%) 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.8
Source: Company, HSIE Research
Page | 9
Eicher Motors: Results Review 4QFY20
Rating Criteria
BUY: >+15% return potential
ADD: +5% to +15% return potential
REDUCE: -10% to +5% return potential
SELL: >10% Downside return potential
Date CMP Reco Target
10-Jul-19 19,039 SELL 17,150
1-Aug-19 16,348 SELL 14,760
22-Sep-19 17,860 NEU 16,280
11-Oct-19 18,201 NEU 16,280
9-Nov-19 21,701 NEU 19,650
9-Jan-20 19,892 NEU 19,650
6-Feb-20 20,391 NEU 19,650
2-Mar-20 16,602 ADD 20,340
20-Apr-20 14,766 REDUCE 13,800
11-May-20 14,304 REDUCE 13,800
13-Jun-20 16,857 REDUCE 15,020
From 2nd March 2020, we have moved to new rating system
RECOMMENDATION HISTORY
12,000
14,000
16,000
18,000
20,000
22,000
24,000
Jun
-19
Jul-
19
Au
g-1
9
Sep
-19
Oct
-19
No
v-1
9
Dec
-19
Jan
-20
Feb
-20
Ma
r-2
0
Ap
r-2
0
Ma
y-2
0
Jun
-20
Eicher TP
Page | 10
Eicher Motors: Results Review 4QFY20
HDFC securities
Institutional Equities
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