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GOVERNMENT OF INDIA~"l'-::tI('1~

MINIS:1'.R.OF POWER

q:;~I~Ri~~~CENTRAL ELECTRICITY AUTHORITY

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Rq)t

REPORT

ONSEVENTEENTH

ELECTRIC POWER SURVEY

OF

INDIA(~ ~ 2003 qft t rn J 73 (~) c f i " ffim

c fi" . f c t . "!IT. c f i " "Illl~ c f i" qJW 'J ~ \fq,IBI~)

(BROUGHT OUT IN FULFILMENT OF CEA'S OBLIGATIONS UNDER

SECTION 73(a) OF THE ELECTRICITY ACT 2003)

~, 2007 "'I'f ~~

MARCH, 2007 NEW DELHI

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Central Electricity Authority

RAKESH NATH

FOREWORD

C H / % . !1< .1l-Ili: t, '>,;~-'~\,{:entral Elei~tf"~ciry/\.Ui.~I"Jri~.\

& Ex ot{jdo S(-ft~'[:-~r"y,

(;i~VL (li';:

The forecast of electricity demand is an important input for power sector planning

to optimally utilize the scarce resources. The electrical energy being clean and the most

convenient form of energy, having preference over other forms of energy, is a vital input

for economic development of the country. The Electric Power Survey Committee

conducts surveys for the power demand and holds discussions with all the stakeholders

on regular basis and make demand forecast not only f,lr use in power sector planning but

in other sectors of economy, i.e., coal, rail, industry, etc.

Our country has been continuing to face power shortages in spite of appreciable

growth in generation. The demand for electrical energy is increasing at the faster rate and

shall continue to grow in tune with the projected growth of economy. The forecast of

electricity demand is done on short and long term basis using international methodologies

of time series analysis and end use method duly validated by the results obtained from

economic and electricity growth indicators. The short term electricity demand alsoaccounted for compensating the shortages in the assumed base year. The T&D loss

reduction programme was introduced in consultation with the State Electricity Rcgulatory

Commissions who furnish the plans of T&D loss reduction for IIth Plan. Wherever such

programme was not available for full period of IIth Plan extrapolated data has been

considered. The inter-regional diversity factor was also applied for peak demand for the

first time in view of the formation of a strong Nation:tl Grid during the I I th Plan.

The Rural-Urban division of the forecast of electricity consumption was also done

for the first time giving spl'cial importance to rural electrification and development in line

with National Electricity Policy. With all these features the utility of the document wouldimprove over previous editions of Electric Power Survey of India. The forecast of

electrical energy consumption and energy requirement prepared by the 17'h Electric

Power Survey Committee has projected growth rate of about 10% & 8% respectively for

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17th Electric Power Survey Central Electricity Authority" ~~'L~~

the period till 11th

Plan end against the actual growth rate of less than 5% during 9th &

initial years of 10th Plan. The corresponding peak demand growth is 9% for period uptoII th Plan end against actual achievement of 5.3%.

The report of the 17th

EPS unlike earlier EPS Reports has considered National

Electricity Policy for providing power to all by 2012. The various growth rates

considered have given higher weightage to the latest power consumption trend to capture

the technological changes and energy conservation efforts in all categories of electricity

consumption. T&D losses have been a concern for power sector since these have been

very high as compared with other countries. The present T&D losses including

unaccounted energy are about 30% and there is need to reduce these losses through

efficient management and the best operation & maintenance practices of the transmission

and distribution systems so that more energy is made available for actual consumption atreduced costs. As per the T&D loss reduction programme proposed by the Utilities, these

are assumed to be brought down to about 22% by the end of 2011-12 and gradually

reducing to 16% by 2021-22.

The electricity demand projections are based on achieving higher energy

consumption and wiping of the energy deficit for sustaining 8-10% GDP growth, policy

issues and the present performance of the power sector. To achieve the load growth as per

projected demand is a challenging task for the power sector in general and Discoms in

particular to create necessary distribution network for planned growth in each sector of

electricity consumption. A strong transmission & distribution infrastructure would ensureavailability of reliable and quality power to spur the interests of industrial and

commercial sectors for achieving faster economic growth and planning large sized power

projects.

I hope that the results of the 17th EPS would serve useful guidelines for all State

Govts., utilities, developers, manufacturers and other stakeholders for advance planning

for their growth.

New DelhiDated the 30

thMarch, 2007 (Rakesh Nath)

________________________________ :n:-:-;_~_~__

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::;~~lr"Central Electricity Authority~'

V.S. VERMA

PREFACE

17th Electric Power Survey

MEMBER (PLANNING)Central Electricity Authority

& Ex officio Addition~i1Secretary,

Gov!. of Jndi"

Electricity being clean and convenient source of energy plays a major role at

every stage of development of a nation. The Electricity Act 2003 entrusts CEA with a

function to prepare the National Electricity Plan for next five years and the

perspective plan for the next ten years. In order to complete the above task, it is

imperative to have the forecast of the electric load for the next 10-15 years period.

This would be the basis for preparation of the National Electricity Plan. The load

forecast also serves as a tool for future planning for capacity addition by various

utilities and other stakeholders. The industries get a good guideline to plan for future

growth dependhg on the availability of electricity. CEA has been regularly bringing

out the Electric Power Survey Reports for this purpose. 16th

EPS is the latest in the

available series which gives the forecast till the year 2016- 17. The 17th

Electric Power

Survey Committee was entrusted with the task of conducting 17th

Electric Power

Survey of India by the Central Electricity Authority in November, 2003. The main

task of the Committee was to review the electricity demand projections in detail upto

2011-12 and to project the perspective demand upto 2021-22.

The eminent members of the 17'h Electric Power Survey Committee are the

heads of SEBs, TransCos, Pvt. Licensees & Electricity Departments of States/UTs,

representatives of Central Ministries (Water Resources, Coal, Heavy Industries,

Power), DYC, PGCIL, BBMB, BEE & REC, Planning Commission & Railway

Board, economist from NCAER, Statistical Scientists from C.S.O. & I.S.I., expert

from The Energy Resources Institute (TERI) and representatives of Associations of

Industries (Special Invitees). In the first meeting held in January, 2004, the members

of the Committee adopted the methodology of End Use Technique and Trend

Analysis for electricity demand forecasting.

Unlike before, this Committee had to face the challenge of accommodating the

new dimensions of economic measures. It had to take into account the various policy

decisions of the Govt in the power sector such as rural electrification and electricity to

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all by 2012, achieving a GDP growth rate of about 9-10%, a minimum per capita

consumption of 1000 units / year etc. The key issues considered by the Committee

were energy shortage due to restrictions & unscheduled cuts, per capita availability to

be enhanced to 1000 units by year 2011-12, energy efficiency & conservation

measures, special impetus on rural electrification & irrigation, thrust to economically

weaker States & Regions (North Eastern Region). The rural-urban division was also

an important factor considered in this forecast. The fulfillment of electrification of all

rural households as per the provisions of National Electricity Policy and the

development of commercial and irrigation sector in rural areas shall result into

about 50% share in the total electricity consumption on all India basis during the

year 2011-12.

The Committee at its Regional Power Survey Offices started collection of dataon the basis of rural urban division and working of demand as per the approved

methodology. The Secretariat also interacted with the State Regulators for drawing up

the programme of reduction of T&D losses and expected load factors of the State(s).

The information of projected population was also collected from Registrar General of

India for determining the expected number of domestic customers on rural-urban

basis. The Secretariat also interacted intensively with Railway Board for finalization

of electricity requirement of railways traction.

It was observed that due to recession in the 8th and early 9th Plan Period, the

electricity sector had a very meager growth rate during these periods. It was, however,

decided to match the energy growth with that of the GDP keeping the electricity ratio

between GDP growth and electrical energy growth optimistic. The preliminary

forecast thus reconstructed, was reviewed in the 2nd

meeting of the EPS. Most of the

States except very few responded appreciably. The forecast were again reviewed in

the 3rd meeting of the Committee in August, 2006. The Committee had suggested that

the shortages in electrical energy and peak load may be compensated in the assumed

base year of the forecast and have a uniform growth rate to achieve the final targets

derived. The result of the compensated forecast has been graphically represented for

the first time in this report.

At one stage the Committee felt that the results of the forecast may be tested byadopting Multivariate Econometric Model. A Sub-Committee of Experts was

constituted for the purpose. An expert in the field was appointed for preparing the

background paper for the Expert Sub-Committee. The base paper was submitted by

the expert.

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The main components of the Report are as follows:

1. Methodology of forecasting of electricity demand.

2. Summary of short term & long term forecast.

3. Forecast of electricity consumption category wise year wise rural-urban-

wise, electricity requirement, peak load, T&D Loss and load factor on All

India, Regional and StatefUT basis for short term in tabular form.

4. StatefUT wise sheets depicting pattern of electricity utilization, electricity

consumption category wise year wise rural-urban wise, electricity

requirement, peak demand, T&D loss and load factor for short term.

5. Forecast of electricity consumption, electricity requirement and peak

electric demand, T&D loss and electric load factor on All India, Regional

and StatefUT basis for long term beyond 20 I 1-12 in tabular form.

6. All India, regional and State/UT wise annuaVplan wise growth rates of

electricity requirement, electricity consumption, peak electric load for

short and long term.

I wish to express my sincere thanks to all the Members of the 17th Electric

Power Survey Committee for their able guidance and whole-hearted co-operation and

constructive suggestions made during the deliberations of the Committee. The

Committee is deeply indebted to the representatives of the State Electricity Boards

and other Utilitiesl Organizations for their co-operations in finalization of the report. I

would also like to place on record the valuable support given to me by Shri R.C.Nakul, Chief Engineer, Shri Ashok Kumar, Director and Shri S. Biswas, & Shri B.C.

Mallick, Deputy Directors, CEA and other officials associated in this exercise.

New Delhi

30th March, 2007

(V.S. Verma)

Member (Planning), CEA

Ex Officio Additional Secretary, Govt. of India &

Chairman, 17th Electric Power Survey Committee

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a ; ~ " ,. ;~ ._~ -f Centra! Electricity Authority 17th Electric Power SUlvey

ACKNOWLEDGEMENT

With the unbundling of various utilities, the number of entities which supplied the data increased

and the coordination between various Discoms, generation companies and planning agencies became

more and more complex which resulted in prolonged interaction and finalisation of the electrical energy

forecast. The data bank used for preparation of the forecast mostly pertained to 8th & 9 th Plan. The data

supplied by some of the States particularly Eastern and North Eastern States had been inconsistent. This

required lot of efforts to derive the real indicators of growth in these regions.

This report is a result of intensive interaction with the representatives of the utilities who through

various deliberations gave valuable suggestions. Sh.V.S.Verma, Member (Planning) CEA and the

Chairman of the 17 th EPS Committee has been the guiding force in adopting various strategies for

formation of this report. Shri Rakesh Nath, Chairperson, CEA took keen interest in the preparation of the

report and had been regularly giving useful suggestions for improving the contents of the report. The

report was also discussed in Planning Commission with Hon'ble Member (Energy) Dr.Kirit S. Parikh and

Sh.Surya P. Sethi, Principal Advisor(Energy) and others who gave valuable suggestions which were

extremely useful for refining the forecast. There had been interaction with MOP and other formations of

CEA who have guided on various aspects of the 17th

Electric Power Survey Forecast.

The framework of the 17 th EPS was prepared by Shri V.B.Gupta, the then Chief Engineer, DMLF

Division who has superannuated during the course of preparation of the report, and Shri Ashok Kumar,

Director. The final report is the out come of the hard work done by various officers of CEA in Planning

Wing. The credit for the report is also to be shared with the family members of the officers who devoted

their holidays and late night hours for bringing out the report. It is not possible to include the names of all

who m ade exceptional contribution particularly the assistance provided by the PAs, Stenos, clerical staff

and peons of the Planning Wing of CEA.

The study required complex analysis of different issues and the contributions made by the officers

and off icials of the Electric Power Survey Group in the Central Electr icity Authority are worthy of

appreciation. Any omission and error is responsibility of the Secretariat of the EPS.

The specific contribution by the following officers of CEA is appreciated and acknowledged with

thanks.

Sh. Ashok Kumar Director Discussion & overall supervision.

Sh . Saum en B isw as D eputy D irector Eastern and North Fastern Regions and

A&N Islands.

Sh. H.C. Mallick Deputy Director Southern & Western Regie!1.

Sh. R.K. Goel Deputy Director General & Administrati'/e support.

Sh . H ard ayal S in gh A ssistant D ire ctor General & Administrative support.

Sh. Sovaran Singh A ssistant D irector N orthern & W estern R egion.

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17th Electric Power SUNey

Sh. Y. P. Kohli

Sh. R.K. AroraSmt. Santosh Golani

Smt. Pushpa Gulati

Smt. Shalu Sharma

Sh. Ishwar Chander

Sh. P.S. Yadav

Sh. Ramesh Chander

Sh. S. C. MaheshwariSh. B. Gupta

Sh. D.K. Meena

Smt. Suman Bala

Assistant Director

Personal AssistantPersonal Assistant

Personal Assistant

Stenographer

V.D.C.

V.D.C.

Peon

Deputy DirectorAssistant Director - I

Assistant Director - II

Assistaut Director-II

}

}

}

Central Electricity Authority ,~~~

Correspondence & coordination.

Stenographic and Secretarial Assistance.

Other official support.

Collection & validation ofbasic data of the constituents

of Northern Region

Sh. O.P. Singh

Sh. A.P. Puranik

Sh. D.B. Bisht

Sh. A.c. Suresh

C l 'i ,W ve y Office, Mumbai

Deputy Director (promoted)}Deputy Director



Collection & validation of

basic data of the constituents

of Western Region

Regional Power Survey Office, Kolkata

Sh. T.Rajender Reddy,

Sh. C. Venkata Subbaiah

Sh. A.Bose,

Sh. Thomas K. Chako

Sh. A Kesavan

Sh. S.K. Bhattacharya

Sh.S.K. Deb

Sh. P.N. SarkarSh. P.K. De

Deputy Director(Retired)

Deputy Director

Assistant Director-I

Assistant Director - I


Deputy Director

Assistant Director-I

Assistant Director - IIAssistant Director-II

}

Collection & validation of


of Southern Region

Collection &validation of


ofER &NER.

New Delhi

Dated the 30lh

March, 2007

(R.C. NAKVL)

Chief Engineer (DMLF) &Member Secretary

17th Electric Power Survey Committee

~ -- - - - - - - - - - - -_ .< . " " ~ .~ .~ -- - - -_. ., ~ - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -10

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Central Electricity Authority 17th Electric Power Survey

"'"~:'f3(~.

ADF-IR == Annual Diversity Factor - Inter Regional

ADF-IS == Annual Diversity Factor - Inter State

AELF == Annual Electric Load Factor

AI == All India

APEL == Annual Peak Electric Load

CAGR == Compounded Annual Growth Rate

CEA == Central Electricity Authority

EEC == Electrical Energy Consumption

EER == Electlical Energy Requirement

EM == Econometric Model

EPS == Electric Power Survey

ER == Eastern Region/Energy RequirementEPSC == Electric Power Survey Committee

GDP == Gross Domestic Product

GWh == Giga (==109)Watt Hour

GW == Giga (==109)Watt

HT == High Tension (High Voltage)

IEP == Integrated Energy Policy

kW == Kilo Watt

LT == Low Tension (Low Voltage)

MkWhlMU == Million Kilo Watt HourlMillion Unit

MW == Mega Watt

NER == North Eastern RegionNR == North Region

PEUM == Partial End Use Method

REDB == Rural Electrification Distribution Backbone

RPSO == Regional Power Survey Office

SCM == Shortage Compensation Method

SR == Southern Region

TDL == Transmission & Distribution Loss

TWh12

== Tera (==10 ) Watt Hour

U == Utilities

UT==

Union Territory

WR == WeEtern Region

Note: Read 'UTTARAKHAND' in place of 'UTTARANCHAL'.

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INDEX OF CONTENTS

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DESCRIPTION PAGE NO.

Foreword 3- _~ ~ ~ n _Pr'Pjilce 5

n 0-------- ~-~--- A~.knoJ17edgeill~ril----------~-n----------no----- -n -9no

Abbrel!iaf{rJlls (//1(r;\--;-:;vnV/~l~--~--------------- - ----- - --ff--- n_~ n nOn _

INTRODUCTION & METHODOLOGY---------~

1.0 Background

1.1 Econometric Modelling of the

Demand Forecastn_ n n ~ 1:2The StatisticslI5aia--n--------~------------- -n26

n

----------------- -- --

1.3 Aims & Ohjectives 27_____ m _

1.4 Definitions 29~---~-_._-----------------~------ ---------

1.5 Methodology 3 In_n n_~ n _

1.6 Assumptions 40f __n __ oo n _O~~ n 0_ 0

CHAPTER-II SUMMARY AND REVrEW___ - n_n o _

2.1 Electricity Forecast Digest 45_____ n 0 n

2.2 Energy Demand and the Peak Load Demand 46All India aIlcfStiteIUT-\Vlsc Fo r c c a s ( ~ - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -Electrical Energy Requirement 48

Taj)je-2.2~-------- -A1Clndw-and-Si"taUrw{se-Forccast:-Peak L()ad------- n 49 --

2.3 Vision heyond 20] 1-12 SO

tb\T:t~~h~,TfB---~~~lnfn~~an~:e~~:c~:qa,~i~:% ~::f~~a~u~~~:~dUtTfJt@ ~--1r~I - C h a r t s 2.2A, 2.2B Northern Region: Energy Requil"".rn_e~and _1'''.ak...Q''.manl.!_-_-_-:~~~_-.Charts 2.3A, 2.3B Western Region: Energy Requirement and Peak Demand 58---------------~ ~-~- -Charts 2.4A, 2.4B Southem Region: Energy Requirement and Peak Demand --tiff -

__ ~ __ n _

Charts 2.5A, 2.5B Eastern Region: Energy Requirement and Peak Demand 62__ ~ __ n _

Charts 2.6A, 2.6B North Eastem Region: Energy Requirement and 64

Peak Demand----------- f-----_---

Energy Requirement and Pcak Demand: 66

Chandigarh, Delhi, Haryana, Himachal Pradesh,

Jammu & Kashmir, Punjab, Rajasthan, Uttar Pradesh,

Uttaranchal, Goa, Gujarat. Madhya Pradesh,

Chhattisgarh, Maharashtra, Dadra & Nagar Haveli,

Daman & Diu, Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka, Kerala,

Tamil Nadu, Pondicherry, Bihar, J!larkhand, Orissa,West Bengal, Sikkim, Arunachal Pradesh, Assam.

Manipur, Meghalaya, Mizoram, Nagaland, Tripura,

Andaman & Nicobar Islands and Lakshadweep.

W 1 9 ' 1 ; I j : Central Electricity Authority

CHAPTER

CHAPTER-I

f-----

~oo n __

~-

Charts 2.7A, 2.7B to

Charts 2.41A, 2.41B:

INDEX OF CONTENTS

I71!1Electric Power Survey

23------- ---

2 5

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CHAPTER DESCRIPTION PAGE NO.

Table 3.

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17th Electric Power SUivey Central Electricity Authorjty .. ~~-- '-/---;

,'t- - ,


Table 3.25 All India and StatelUT wise electlical energy 207

consumption - Commercial - Rural (Utilities)

2003-04 to 2011-12

Table 3.26 All India and State/UT wise electrical energy 208

consumption - Irrigation - Rural (Utilities)

2003-04 to 2011-12

Table 3.27 All India and StatelUT wise electrical energy-~

209--

consumption - Others - Rural (Utilities)

2003-04 to 2011-12-~

CHAPTER-IV STATEWISE FORECAST

Tables on Category-wise Electricity Consumption and

=-,Electricity Demand Forecast upto 2011-12 (PEUM)

Table 4.1 Delhi: Summary of categOlY wise forecast (Utilities) 213--- --- ------Table 4... ! Haryana : Summary of category wise forecast (Utilities) 214

Table 4.3 Himachal Pradesh : Summary of category wise forecast 215

(Utilities).-f--------~-- ----------

Table 4.4 Jammu & Kashmir: Summary of category wise forecast 216

(Utilities)f----------

Table 4.5 Punjah: Summary of category wise forecast (Utilities) 2171--------

Table 4.6 Rajasthan: Summary of category wise forecast (Utilities) 218---~------------- ~_. --f-- ----Table 4.7 Uttar Pradesh : Summary of categOlY wise forecast 219

----------------(Utilities)

-- ~-----

Table 4.8 Uttaranchal : Summary of categOlY wise forecast (Utilities) 220-------

Table 4.9 Chandigarh : Summary of category wise forecast (Utilities) 22]--

Table 4.10 Goa : Summary of category wise forecast (Utilities) 222

Table 4.11 Gujarat : Summary of category wise forecast (Utilities) 223---------------- --

: Summary of category wise forecastTable 4.12 Madhya Pradesh 224

(Utilities)--.~~--

Chhattisgarh : Summary of category wise forecast 225Table 4.13

(Utilities)-- ----~-------Table 4.14 Maharashtra : Summary of category wise forecast 226

-(Utilities)

Table 4.15 Daman & Diu: Summary of category wise forecast 227

(Utilities)

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -18

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Table 4.16 Oadra & Nagar Haveli: Summary of category wise 228forecast (Utilities)

--Table 4.17 Andhra Pradesh : Summary of category wise forecast 229

(Utilities)

Table 4.18 Kerala : Summary of category wise forecast (Utilities) 230-

Table 4.19 Karnataka : Summary of category wise forecast (Utilities) 23 1

Table 4.20 Tamil Nadu : Summary of category wise forecast 23 2

(Utilities)

Table 4.21 Pondicherry: Summary of category wise forecast 23 3

~.

(Utilities)

Table 4.22 Bihar: Summary of category wise forecast (Utilities) 23 4-

Table 4.23 West Bengal : Summary of category wise forecast 23 5

(Utilities)---_._-.- -

Table 4.24 Jharkhand : Summary of category wise forecast (Utilities) 236

Table 4.25 Orissa: Summary of category wise forecast (UtiJities) 237

Table 4.26 Sikkim: Summary of category wise forecast (Utilities) 238(..- -

Table 4.27 Assam: Summary of category wise forecast (Utilities) 23 9---.-- . '- --._--

Table 4.28 Arunachal Pradesh : Summary of category wise forecast 240

(Utilities)- -

Table 4.29 Manipur: Summary of category wise forecast (Utilities) 24 ]----.- ---

Table 4.30 Meghalaya: Summary of category wise forecast (Utilities) 24 2

L-Table4.31 Mizoram: Summary of category wise forecast (Utilities) 24 3

Table 4.32 Nagaland: Summary of category wise forecast (Utilities) 24 4

Table 4.33 Tripura : Summary of category wise forecast (Utilities) 24 5

Table 4.34 Andaman & Nicobar : Summary of category wise 24 6

forecast (Utilities)- '-'--Table 4.35 Lakshadweep : Summary of category wise forecast 24 7

(Utilities)

CHAPTER - V LONG TERM FORECAST--/-.---

Tables on Long Term Forecast of Electricity Demand---

Table 5.1 All India & Regional Summary of Long Tenn 251

Forecast (Utilities)-

Table 5.2 State wise Long term forecast at Power Station 252

Bus Bars (UtiJities)

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Long term forecast Electrical Energy

Consumption (Utilities)-,----------- ------ ---- ------------

Table 5.4 Long term forecast Transmission & Distribution

Losses (Utilities)----------- -- -----

Table 55 Long term forecast Annual Electric Load 255 IFactor (Utilities)

~ ~ ~ ~ E ~ ~ ~ V I_ ~~ ~ ~ :'~ ~ lt : :~ E = k c tr :i ~ ) - I )~ ~ l~(Utilities)=_ ~ _ jTable 6.1 AIJ India and StatelUT Wise - Growth in 259 I

electrical energy requirement at power station

hus bar~ (2003-04 to 201 1-12) (Utilities)---------- -------------------------- ----Table 6.2 All Indw and StatelUT wIse - Growth in peak electric 260

load at power stations bus bars (2003-04 to 2011-12) I(Utilities)

-----------r----------------------------r---.Table 6.3 All India and StatelUT wise - Growth in total 261 I

electrical energy consumption (2003-04 to 2011-12) I

__________ J.LJtilities_) ----- --- _ J111ble 6.4 Long Term Forecast : Compounded Annual Growth Rates 262

of Electrical Energy Requirement and Peak Electric

Load (Utilities)------- ------1-----------------------

Tallie 6.5 Long Term Forecast Compounded Annual GrowthRates of Electrical Energy Consumption (Utilities)

_u -' ~ ~ " _

,'lih Electric Power Survey

CHAPTER

Table 5.3

DESCRIPTION

Central Electricity Authority

PAGE NO.

253

254

263

26 7

-- ------

269

Annexure - I Office Order regarding constitution of Seventeenth

Electric Power Survey Committee----- ------- --

IAml~xu~e - II Order regarding constitution of Expert C ommittee on

I Econometric Model FOIecastIAnnc;u-re ':::1"--- T;;-h1~;;_n-Growth-i~clfconsumption of electricity-- -i7 1 - J

__ out of captive Generation (2003-04 to 2011-12) I'.nlICXIHC -- i\' Forecast of electricity demand upt" year T 272 I

r l 2'O~~-~2JorD V . s : - J ~. 4 . , , ; ' ; , a ; , . ( , - - - 'Il- Long-Run Electricity Demand Forecast I 273 ' II Usmg ECOf:ometnc Model J ,~-- - - --- ---~-- ---------- - - ---~-------- - ----,I Annexul C - VI Comparison of ForeCaSts of Ail India Elcctric~ll Energy I 2gX 1

Requirement Using PEUMfSCM, IE? and EM i________________ ~ . J J

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CHAPTER-I

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CHAPTER - I

17th Electric Power SUlVey

INTRODUCTION & METHODOLOGY

1.0 BACKGROUND

The 17'h Electric Power Survey Committee was constituted by the Central Electricity

Authority on 24th November, 2003 with the concurrence of the Ministry of Power. A copy of the

Office Order setting up the Committee is placed as Annexure-I. The ternlS of reference of the

Committee were as under:

(i) To forecast year-wise electricity demand for cach State, Union Tcrritory, Region and All

India in detail up-to the end of 11thPlan i.e. year 2011-2012.

(ii) To project the perspective electricity demand for the terminal years of 12'h and 13th Five

Year Plans i.e. year 2016-2017 and 2021-2022.

The Committee held its first meeting on 14thJanuary, 2004 and discussed the methodology

to be adoptcd for forecasting the electricity demand on short term (5-7 years) and long timc

frames and the 'proformae' to be used for collecting data from the State Transmission Utilities or

Electricity Departments or Electricity Boards of the 35 States/Union Territories. Based on the

vicws expressed by the members of the Committec, it was decided that thc Partial End Use

Methodology (PEUM) described in the Section-5 of this report would used for conducting 17th

Electric Power Survey of India to work out electricity demand forecast and that the profornlae

circulatcd in the] ,t meeting would be used for collecting data.

The 2nd mecting of the Committee was held on 26th August, 2005 wherein the draft report

of the Committee proposing forecast of electricity demand upto the year 2011-12 for utility

systems was discussed and a decision was taken that the members of the Committee would

furnish their detailcd observations on thc content of the draft report within a fortnight. The

observations and views of the members of the Committee & State Electricity Regulatory

Commissions were incorporated in the forecast of the concerned States / Union Territories and

the revised forecast(s) were sent to the concerned State Transmission Utilities or Electricity

Departments or Electricity Boards of the States / UTs. The forecast of electricity demand were

revised further for certain States / UTs after holding discussions or on the basis of written

conll1lunication.

The 3'd & final meeting of the Committee was held on 23'd August, 2006 wherein the

revised draft report of the Committee circulated as agenda was deliberated upon as per following

record-notes of the meeting:

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(i) A presentation was made by the Member-Secretary of the Committee on various aspects

affecting electricity demand. During the presentation it was expressed that short term

electricity demand in terms of electrical energy requirement and annual peak electric load

had been done by making compensation for the shortages experienced on All India,

Regional and State/UT levels during the year 2004-05.

The exercise of the electrical energy forecast under Partial End Use Method has been done

on the basis of electrical energy consumption by various categories/sections of energy

consumers for the short tenn period upto year 2011-12. The electricity shortages have been

assessed for the HT industry through data collection from over 1000 industrial units where

it was observed that the reported power cuts causing production loss were less than 1%

apart from the notified peak load restrictions to enable the industries to reschedule the

production plan for optimal utilization.

The transmission and distribution losses in various States/UTs are very high. The National

Electricity Policy lays stress on reduction of the losses to international level. Transmission

& Distribution losses at present arc of the order of 30% on All India basis and vary from

19-45% for major States. These losses arc to be brought down through adoption of various

O&M practices, energy conservation, renovation & modernization of the Transmission &

Distribution system and surveillance of unauthorized electrical energy consumption. Based

on an exercise canied out in consultation with Regulatory Commissions and the Electricity

Boards/State Power Utilities, the All India T&D Loss worked out to 22% at the end of 11th

Plan. Serious efforts would need to be made by various transmission and distribution

utilities to bring down the T&D losses to bclow 22% at the end of 1Ith Plan.

(ii) The demand projections made by the 17th Electric Power Survey Committee by partial end

use method were discussed with representatives of the States/UTs. Some states desired that

forecast for their States be improved based on the per capita electricity consumption of

1000 units as spelt out in the National Electricity Policy. It was explained that the per

capita consumption figure appearing in the National Electricity Policy was the national

average and cannot be applied to any particular State as such to work out the demand

figures. The demand projections worked out were already optimistic. Some of the members

also expressed that non-achievable targets may not be projected and they should be in line

with the future developments.

(iii) The draft report/presentation given in the 3' d meeting contained the year wise pcak demand

and energy requirement for the each y~ar upto 2011-2012, for All India and the various

Regions by compensating shortages in the base year (2004-05). Representatives from

States desired that the year wise peak demand and energy requirement demand be

incorporated State/UT wise also.

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(iv) The electricity demand forecast has been made on optimistic consideration so as to achievc

and sustain GDP growth rates of 8-10% during the 11th Plan period. Infrastructure in

transmission and distribution net work for various categories of electricity consumptionwould, accordingly, need to be developed at a rapid pace in close co-ordination with stake

holders. It was also decided that the achievements of the infrastructure and the electricity

load growth would be reviewed after two years of the submission of the report so that

necessary initiative could be taken up for meeting the desired growth rate in the electricity

consumption in various sectors. The electricity demand projections would also be reviewed

for the StateslUTs which actually achieve high growth rates in the electricity demand.

The various points discussed in the meeting have been reviewed and incorporated in the

final forecast based on the specific requirement of various StateslUTs at respective Annexures

and Tables.

1.1 ECONOMETRIC MODELLING OF THE DEMAND FORECAST

To fulfill the requirements of the National Electricity Policy, an Expert Committee of 11

members was constituted vide letter dated 31.03.05(Annexure-I1) to forecast demand using

econometric model considering demand influencing factors for which economic indicators shall

be available and taking into account the projected growth rates of different sectors of economy.

Prof. D.N. Rao, the Head of the Department, Centrc for Economic Studies and Planning.

School of Social Sciences, Jawahar Lal Nehm University, New Delhi was appointed as a

Resource Person to undertake the job of preparing base paper for 17th EPS using econometric

model. Prof. Rao made a presentation before the Expert Committee on 12th

September, 20U6.The projections made by Econometric Modelling which were found on lower side were revised

by Prof. Rao and a revised report was submitted incorporating various observations made hy

members. Thesc were further deliberated in a meeting taken by Dr. Kirit S. Parikh, Member

(Energy), Planning Commission. The other members of the Committee also participated. Still

there were gaps in the projections made by Econometric Modelling. The projections were at

lower side. It was found that the gaps were mainly due to the following reasons:

(i) The Time series data of electricity consumption used for establishing correlation tt)!

econometric model did not include consumption in industries out of captive generation.

therefore, leading to lower forecast in respect of year 2011-12 and onwards.

(ii) The indices have been considered for the period when the electricity growth as well as the

GDP growth were low.

The comparison of three sets of forecast, i.e., PEUM, Econometric Model and as made in the

RepOlt on Integrated Energy Policy (August 2006) of the Planning Commission are given at

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Annexure- VI of this Report. It was decided that the report of the 17'h Electric Power Survey

Committee be released after including a comparative statcment showing gaps and the reasons for

gaps between the three sets of energy forecast on All India basis. It was also felt that a separate

study be conducted from an expert regarding forccast of electricity demand using multi-variatc

econometric model by the Authority and the results revised.

The report furnished by the Resource Person on Econometric Model is enclosed at

Annexure- V.

1.2 THE STATISTICS/DATA

The Annual Electricity Statistics covering category-wise ultimate consumption of

clectrical cncrgy, availability of clectrical energy, Transmission & Distribution losses, mid-yearpopulation of persons, category-wise connectcd electric load, number of consumers, number of

electrified villages, number of energized irrigation pump sets, aggregate capacity of in'igation

pump sets, etc. are furnished by thc Utilities / Licensees / Electricity Departments / Electricity

Supplying Cooperative Societies of the States / Union Territories to the Central Electricity

Authority for bringing out annual publication titled "General Review - All India Electricity

Statistics". The statistics of the past 10-15 years as published in the General Reviews have been

used for creation of data base for 17th Elecliic Power Survey of India.

Various additional information such as T&D losses, irrigation pump scts encrgisation

programme, Railway Traction consumption, etc. were collected by the Secretariat of the 17th

Elcctric Powcr Survey Committce from the State Transmission Utilities, Electricity Departmentsor Electricity Boards of the States/UTs vide the proformae approved by the Committee in respect

of rural & urban areas separately for the period w.e.f 1997-98 to 2011-12 which included thc

information rcgarding electricity demand asscssment for electricity distribution licensecs.

The programme of reducing transmission & distribution losses and also improvement of

annual electric load factor due to implementation of Demand Side Management, advance

techniques of electric load management & differential tariff for peak and off-peak period upto

the year 2021-22 was collected by thc Sccretariat of the 17th EPSC from State Electricity

Regulatory Commissions.

Monthly statements of power supply position brought out by Grid Management Divisionof CEA werc referred for actual clectrical energy requirement & availability, peak electricity

demand & peak met and Inter-State & Inter-Regional Diversity Factors for the past.

Railway Board/Ministry of Railways supplied the State/UT wise data of electricity

demand for railway traction for the period upto 2011-12 based on their programme for railway

track electrification and expansion.

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Annual reports brought out by Regional Power Committees were consulted for load

curves and Inter-State Diversity Factors. The annual data regarding electricity demand,

consumption & captive generation and production in respect of more than 4000 HTIndustries(Existing &prospective) with electricity demand of I MW and above, was collected,

examined and compiled for individual industries on annual basis by the four Regional Powcr

Survey Offices of CEA for the purpose of using the same in forecasting exercises.

Region-wise and State/UT wise data-base was created and updated by the f(llIr Regional

Power Survey Offices of the Central Electricity Authority located at New Delhi, Mumbai,

Bangalore and Kolkata with an objective to complete preliminary exercises for forecasting of the

electricity demand.

1.3 AIMS AND OBJECTIVES

The primary objective of the electrical energy forecast is to assess the electricity demand

for States/UTs so that the States/UTs are able to plan and arrange the electrical energy to meet

demand in full and provide electricity connections to all applicants. The States would thus draw

the strategy to install their own generation capacity for availability of electricity and enter into

power purchase agreements with the surplus States/Generating Companies. The EPS forecast

makes projections of the aggregate power demand over the year and also detailed forecast for

various categories of electricity consumption; so that the utilities arc able to plan suitable

infrastructure for transmission & distribution of eleCl1icity. The demand forecast for various

categories of consumption would facilitate States to identify priority sectors and develop

optimum infrastructure within the limited resources. The electricity demand forecast also works

as a tool for planning the Demand Side Management (DSM) strategy on long term basis for

optimizing the peak demand and also plan long term tariff policy.

The 17th Electric Power Survey of India encompasses various features for fulfilling aims

and objectives of the National/State Policies framed by the Govcrnment(s) in their policy

documents and guidelines. Some of the important objectives of policy arc described below:

The National Electricity Policy notified by the Govl. of India lays down followint:

objectives and due consideration has been given to these while formulating the electricity

demand forecast:

(i) Access to electricity: Available for all house-holds in next five years

(ii) Availability of power: Demand to be fully met by 2012. Energy and peuking shortages to

be overcome and adequate spinning reserve (at least 5%) to be available.

(iii) Per capita availability of electricity to be increased to over) 000 units by 2012.

(iv) Minimum consumption of I unit per house hold per day as a merit gtJod by year 2012.

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tv) An action plan for reduction of losses with adequate investments and suitable

improvement in governance should be drawn up by State Electricity RegulatoryCommissions so as to bring these in line with International practices by year 2012-

(vi) In order to reduce the requirement for capacity addition, the difference between electrical

demand during peak periods and off peak periods would have to be reduccd. Suit3ble

load management technique should be adopted for this purpose. Differential tariff

structure for peak and off peak supply and metering arrangements should be conducive to

load management objectives. Regulatory Commissions should ensure adherence to

energy efficiency standards by utilities.

(vii) The State Governments would prepare a five year plan with annual mile stone to bring

down transmission and distribution losses expeditiously.

(viii) In agriculture sector, the pump sets and water delivery system engineered for highefficicncy would be promoted. In the industrial sector, energy efficient tcchnologics

should be used and energy audits carried out to indicate scope for energy conscrvation

measures. Motors and drive systems arc the major source of high consumption in

agricultural and industrial sector. Energy efficient lighting technologies should also be

adopted in industries, commcrcial & domestic establishments.

(ix) Reliable rural electrification system will aim at creating the Rural Electrification

Distribution Backbone (REDB).

(x) High voltage distribution system is an effective method for reduction of technical losses,

prevention of theft, improvcd voltage profile & better consumer service. It should be

promoted to rcduce LT/HT ratio keeping in view the techno-economic consideration.

The Central Electricity Authority issued 'Guidelines for reduction of transmission &distribution losses' in February, 2001 to all Utilities/ Electricity Departments/ Licensees. The

guidelines state that it would be reasonable to aim for the energy losses in between ]O-l5 % in

different States taking into consideration the Indian conditions such as development in the

transmission and distribution sector to far flung rural areas, quality of T&D equipment and

meters available in the country, maintenance practices, configuration of system, its spatial

jlllisdiction, nature of loads, etc. The guidelines quote that according to a study carried out by

Electric Power Research Institute(USA), the losses of various elements of T&D system are a,;

pel"below:

Step-up transformers and EHV transmission system.

Transformation to intermediate voltage level, transmission system & step

down to suh-trdI1Smission voltage level.

Sub-transmission system and stcp-down to distribution voltage level.-- -----.-----------.----

(d) I J)iS.'l~ib..~liO~I.'es and service connections., , = : 1 Tot~!},osses _

1.5 to 3.0

2.25 to 4.5

4.0 to 7.0

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loss for each State ha~. been

Commissions or State Power

However, in the demand forecasting exercise, the T&0

decided in consultation with the State Electricity RegulatoryUtilities.

Many States/UTs confirmed that the Governments had announced new industrial policy to

promote and boost industrialization at already existing and new up-coming Special Economic

Zones & Industrial Estates.

1.4 DEFINITIONS

1.4.1 Electrical Energy Consumption (EEC)

ERC of a system is aggregate of annual electrical energy consumptions of all categories of

llitimate consumers as metered at the premises of ultimate consumers connected to that system.

1.4.2 Electrical Energy Requirement (EER)

Electrical energy requirement of a power system is the sum of annual electrical energy

consumption by all categories of the ultimate consumers and the Transmission & Distribution

losscs in the system during supply of elcctlicity to these consumcrs. The EER would also be

equal to tou!l electrical energy generation plus import of electrical energy from outside the

system minus the auxiliaries energy requirement of the power stations and export of electrical

energy outside the system. The Energy Requirement are depicted in the block diagram below:

Generation End

G

A

1

E

L

Consumer End

c

\Vhen, R = Glcctrical energy requirement of a power system at power station bus-bars

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G = Gross electricity generationA = Electricity consumption in auxiliaries of Power Stations as metered at busI = Electrical energy imports from other Systcms/States/UTsE = Electrical energy exports to the other Systems/States/UTsC = Total electricity consumption at consumer endL = Losses during transmission & distribution of electrical energy

1.4.3 Annual Electric Load Factor (AELF)

Annual Electric Load Factor is the ratio of the aggregate electrical energy requiremcnt

during the year to the electrical encrgy that would hc rcquircd if thc annual peak clectric load is

incident through out the year.

(Electrical Energy Requirement in GWh) x 10S

Annual Electric Load Factor (%) = ------------------------(Annual Peak Electric Load in MW) x Hours in a year (8760)

1.4.4 Annual Peak Electric Load (APEL)

Annual Peak Electric Load of a power system, as used herein, is the maximum

simultaneous electric load of the system which occurs during the fiscal year as measured by

actnal deliveries at generating station bus and/or bulk sources. It would thus be equal to

maximum of coincident power generation within thc system plus import of power from outsidc

thc system less demand of auxiliary systems of power stations and expol1 of power outside the

system during a fiscal year. Some of the States/UT have isolated gcneration from Rencwable

Energy Sources and Mini/Micro hydro power stations which arc not connected to the grid and

accordingly the peak electric loads indicated in the report are the sum of non-coincidental peak

electric loads of the individual systems and thc grid system. Regional peak ekctric load as used

herein is the simultaneous peak electric load of the Region after applying suitable Inter-State

Annual Diversity Factor (ADF-IS) on the aggregated peak electric loads of States and Union

Territories forming part of the Region. Peak electric load for tbe country as a whole is thc

arithmetic sum of regional peak electric loads divided hy the Annual Diversity Factor-Inter-

Rcgional (ADF-IR) plus APEL of Andaman & Nicobar Islands and Lakshadweep.

1.4.5 Annual Diversity Factor (ADF)

Various factors that detcrminc the Annual Diversity Factor arc described below:

(a) The permanent factors:

I. Time phasing between areas located at far east and far west.

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2. The proximity of an area/StatelUT to the sea and its geological features.

3. Proximity of an area/State/UT to the hills/mountains because of its geographical location.4. Diversified cultural activities.

(b) Variable factors:

I. Meteorological variations e.g. variations in rainfall / ambient temperatures / conditions of

draughts/floods/cyclones as climatic irregularities & natural calamities.

2. Degree of demand side management (DSM) for flattening of load curve.

Annual Diversity Factor is a factor indicative of non-simultaneous occurrence of annual

peak electric loads in the States/UTs of a Region or non-simultaneous annual peak electric loads

of different Regions of India resulting into a simultaneous annual peak electric load of the

Region or the mainland of India which is lesser than the arithmetic sum of annual peak electricloads of all States/Union Territories of the Region or all Regions of the mainland of India

respectively.

Annual Diversity Factor -Inter State (ADF-IS) as used herein is the ratio of aggregate of

the annual peak electric loads of the systems of the constituent States/Union Territories of the

Region to the annual simultaneous peak electric load of the Region.

Annual Diversity Factor -Inter Regional (ADF-IR) as used herein is the ratio of

aggregate of the annual peak electric loads of the regional systems of all five Regions of the

mainland of India, excluding Islands of Andaman & Nicobar and Lakshadweep, to the annual

simultaneous peak electric load of the mainland.

1.5 METHODOLOGY

1.5.1 .'orecasl upto 2011-12

All India, Region-wise, State-wise and Category-wise forecast has been made in detail on yearly

basis for the period 2004-05 to 2011-12 for utility systems only.

Partial End-Use Methodology (PEUM) is a combination of International forecasting

methodologies i.e. time series analysis and end-use method. PEUM has been used for forecasting

the electricity demand. The time series method has been used to derive growth indicators giving

higher weightage to the recent trend so as to incorporate the benefits of the energy conservationinitiatives and new technologies. However, in cases where no definite trend emerged,

chronological or maximum AGR-maximum weightage have been used for forecasting electricity

demand.

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1.5.1.1.1 Categories of Consumption

The All India, Region-wise and StatelUT-wise forecast of electricity consumption has been made

on yearly basis for each of the following categories of consumption:

(a) Domestic

(b) Commercial

(c) Public Lighting

(d) Public Water Works

(e) Irrigation

C O Industrial (LT, HT less than I MW each, HT I MW and above each)

(g) Railway Traction &

ih) Bulk Non- Industrial HT Supply

The forecast has been carried out for each State & Union Territory for rural & urban area

separatc!y and aggregated to obtain the estimate for the Region/ All-India.

The electricity consumption in these sectors has been estimated on the basis of number oC

electricity consumers (Mid-year) and their specific elcctlical energy consumption (Averageelectricity comumption per consumer).

The Electricity Policy provides Corpower to all and accordingly all the households by 2011-2012

have been considered for providing electricity connections Cor working out of the electricity

demand projection.

Electricity consumption per consumer hus been estimated after studying the past trends andtaking into account the anticipated improvements in the life style and electricity supply position.

A gradual decrease in the level of electricity consumption per consumer has been noticed in

majority of the States particularly in the Stales/VTs who have been suffering from serious

electricity ,horrage. The ,pecific consumption reduction has also been noted on account of new

connection in large number. Specific consumption in domestic category is expected to improve

,)11 account of increased avail".bility of electrici'lY. Accordingly. marginalIy rising trend has bcen

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considered for all States/UTs to take care of electricity supply restrictions, cuts. etc. and

accelerated rural electrification programme.

(c&d) Public Lighting & Public VVat~r VVorks

The forecast of consumption of electricity in these two categories has been based on estimated

connected electric load (kW) and the average electricity consumption per kilowatt of connected

electric load (kWhlkW). The connected electric load has been projected on the basis of past

trends and increase in public lighting and water supply facilities. The number of hours of

operation has been determined on the basis of past trends and making adjustment for the effeet of

power cuts for public lighting subject to practical limits.

(c) Irrigation Category

Pumpsets/Tubewells

The following formula has been adopted for forecasting the electrical energy consumption of this

category.

Y = NxSxH

Where

Y = Electricity consumption in kWh

N Number of pump sets as at the middle of the year

S = Average capacity of pumpset in kW at the middle of the year

H = Average electricity consumption per year per kilowatt of connected electric load

(kWh/kW)

Number of Irrigation Pump-sets

The electricity demand for energisation 01'pump-sets for the period 2004-05 to 2011-12 has been

based on the programme of pump set installation furnished by the Electricity BoardsfUtilities

after giving due consideration to actual progress achieved in the past subjected to total potential

of energisation of irrigation pump-sets.

Capacity of Irrigation Pumpsets

The average capacity of pump sets has been worked out by studying the growth trend of mid ycar

figures for both the connected electric load and the number ot pump sets in the past years. Based

on these trends, the growth in average capacity of pump set for future was determined.

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Average Electricity Consumption per kW per year

Central Electricity Authority i~O~~~j}!t~~{iii'

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A study regarding the growth of average electricity consumption per irrigation pump set in the

past indicates that there is a decreasing trend in most of the States. However, marginally rising

trcnd has been considered to take care of extensive irrigation practices, multiple cropping.

depletion in under ground water table and the restrictions in electricity supply hours.

Lift Irrigation Schemes

The consumption for each lift irrigation scheme has been separately estimated on the basis of

connected electric load and anticipated hours of operation adopting End-use methodology.

(f) Industrial Category

The electricity requirement for the industrial sector has been estimated under three sub-

categories viz.

(i) L.T. Industries

(ii) H.T. Industries each with a demand less than I MW

(iii) H.T. Industries each with a demand of I MW & above.

The electricity consumption in the first two categories has been projected on the basis of pasr

trends and scope for development in future. It was observed that the number of and consumptionin LT Industrics is rising rapidly. Therefore, higher growth has been accorded to LT Industries in

view of its larger contribution in economy.

In the case of third category, projection has been made separately for each industrial unit

considering the reported production on the basis of information furnished by the industrialuuits.

From the overall electrical energy consumption in an industrial unit obtained by the above

method, the demand to bc met by captive power plant has bccn deductecl to arrive at the demand

on the utility system. The projection of self consumption from captive electricity generation has

been madc on the basis of past level of self consumption and taking into account the likely

augmentation of captive electricity generation capacity in future. A table giving State-wise

estimated electricity demand of the captive power producers which is expected to be met from

their own electricity generation is eneloscd at Annexure-III.

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(g) Railway Traction


The estimates for this category are based on the requirement of existing railway tracks and thetrack electrification programme envisaged by the Railway Authorities/Rail Corporations. The

estimates as supplied by the Railway Board / Metro Rail Corporation were discussed in detail

and finalized.

(h) Bulk Non-Industrial HT Supply

The electricity consumption in this category covers electricity used in Research Establishments,

Port Trusts, Military Engineering Services, power projects (construction supply), etc. The

electricity requirements by specific consumers where data was available have been considered

for the forecast. For other loads the projections were based on the past trends.

1.5.1.1.2 Total Electrical Energy Consumption at Consumer End

The estimates of tctal electrical energy consumption at consumers' end have been anived at by

aggregating the sector-wise projections.

1.5.1.1.3 Transmission and Distribution Losses

The pDst trend in T&D losses for each State, Union Territory and All India has been studied. The

factors which have contributed towards setting of trend in losses are:

(i) Extension of the L.T.lOistribution net work covering more and more areas of theStates/UTs.

(ii) Low load densities and long lines.

(iii) Introduction of flat rate rariff for agricultural consumers in many of the States.

(iv) Unauthorized and undetected use of electrical energy.

The losses due to first two causes can be termed as 'Technical Losses" and could be brought

down by carrying out system improvements. The losses due to other causes can be termed as

"Unaccounted Energy" which can be brought down only by administrative steps, introduction of

metered supply to reflect t.he true level of electricity consumption by the consumers and energy

andits of electricity supplying feeders, etc. Any reduction in the "Unaccounted Energy" broughtdown by above methods could be accompanied by a corresponding increase in the sale of energy.

Therefore, reduction in electrical energy loss during transmission & distribution of electricity has

been considered for future projections as per loss reduction plan informed by State Electricity

Regulatory Ccmmissions / Boards / Utilities. Most of State Electricity Regulatory Commissions

furnished only short tenn targets for reduction.

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The Central Electricity Authority issued 'Guidelines for rednction of transmission & distribution

losses' in February, 2001 to all Utilitiesl Electricity Departmentsl Licensees. The guidelines

stated that it would be reasonable to aim for the energy losses in between 10-15 % in different

States/UTs taking into consideration the Indian conditions such as development in the

transmission and distribution sector to far flung rural areas, quality of T&D equipment

and meters available in the country, maintenance practices, configuration of system, its

spatial jurisdiction, nature of loads, etc. Above factors have been given due weightage while

deciding the lower limit ofT&D loss under T&D loss reduction programme by 2021-22.

1.5.1.1.4 Electrical Energy Requirement (EER) at Generating End

The electrical energy requirement at generating station bus-bars has been arrived at for each

StatelUnion Territory by adding the T&D losses to the total electrical energy consumption atconsumers end.

1.5.1.1.5 Annual Electric Load Factor (AELf)

The electric load factor of a power system depends on the pattern of utilization of different

classes of load. If the system feeds block indnstrialloads like Aluminium, Fertilizer etc. having

high electric load factor, the overall system ,oad factor would also tend to be high. In regard to

estimation of electric load factor for future, if the pattern of utilization of differerit classes of load

does not differ appreciably from the past in terms of percentage of total electric load, then it was

assnmed that the system load factor of the past may continue. If, however, as is usually the case,

the pattcrn is anticipated to change with respect to total electric load due to gradual withdrawal

of restrictions I cu ts I shedding & under frequency conditions, then it is necessary to estimate the

future electric load factor. A study was made to ascertain how the changes in the load mix may

int1uencc the load factor. Since thcre wcrc restrictions on peak demands and on the use of energy

in thesc years, the electric load factor was obtained after making due allowances for the declining

restrictions, power cuts and under freqnency conditions. Based on these studies and analysis of

future electric load mix, the future electric load factor for each StatelUnion Territory has been

determined.

The effect of peaking loads like that of domestic seClor and commercial sector due to accelerated

programme of rural electrification shall cause declining trend in Annual Electric Load Factor

upto the year 2011-2012 depcnding upon the magnitude of rural electrification. In the States like

Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Orissa, Rajasthan, Madhya Prauesh etc. the effect is estimated to be more

pronounced. In some StateslUTs, the load factor may not decline sharply due to implementation

of demand side management, advance technique" of load management & differential tariff for

peak & off peak hours. In few States IUTs, due to increase in the share of hase electric loads like

industrial loads, the load factor is estimated to improve or maintain its present level.

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I.S.I.I.n Annual Peak Electric Load (APEL)

Annual Peak Electric Load for each StatelUnion Territory has been arrived at by applying theestimated annual electric load factor on the electrical energy requirement at the generating

station bus-bars.

Regional peak electric load has been arrived at by applying Annual Diversity Factor-Inter-Statc

(ADF-IS) on the aggregate of non-simultaneous peak electric loads of the States and Union

Territories forming part of the Region.

The following ADF-IS have been estimated applying gradual reduction due to expected decrease

in the severity of Inter-State diversity for Regional APEL projections for the year 2011-2012 as

under:

Northern Region 1.08

Western Region 1.07

Southern Region 1.04

Eastern Region 1.04

North Eastern Region 1.08

All India Peak Electric Load has been worked out by dividing the sum of the non-simultaneous

peak electric loads of all the regions, excluding the islands, by thc ADF-IR and then adding

APELs of islands to it.

An ADF-IR of 1.03 has been estimated for the year 2011-12 applying gradual reduction in the

existing ADF-IR due to expected decrease in the severity of Inter-Regional Diversity.

IS!.!.7 Steps Taken to over come the Effect of Cuts. Restrictions and Under- frcquencj

Conditions

The category wise forecast of electricity consumption was made adopting high growth rates of

variables to ensure that the projections are made for gradual improvements in power supply

position with emergence of surplus electricity supply position in year 20] 1-2012 having

adequate spinning reserve as laid down in the National Electricity Policy. A separate set of

forecast of electricity demand has been included in this report adding electricity shortage in full

to the electrical energy available and peak met for the year 2004-2005 and then applying uniform

growth rates for assessing the electricity demand for achieving the targets/objectives as per the

Naticlnal Electricity Policy in year 2011-2012.

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1.5.1.1.8 The PEUM methodology described above has been applied for rural-urban areas

separately for the StateslUTs for which the bifurcated data was made available, otherwiseestimates were made based on rural-urban division of population/ households or other logics.

1.5.1,2 5'//(ir!agc (olJ1pcJ/satioll

Central Electricity Authority collects hourly data regarding electrical energy not served or peak

demand that could not be met due to scheduled cuts(Restrictions imposed ), unscheduled

cuts(Load shedding) and under-frequency conditions, from the StateslUTs on daily basis and

compiles the information for calculating electricity shortages. These shortages generally affect

the domestic, commercial or LT industrial consumers i.e., the electric loads mainly responsible

for peaking electricity requirement. These shortages have been treated as factual and total.

Therefore, year-wise and StatelUT-wise electrical energy requirement has been worked out uptoyear 2011-12 on the basis of 2004-05 data after adding one time shortages in the base year to the

electric peak met and electrical energy available. The forecast is placed under Chapter II of this

report. It is a macro level forecast and, therefore, category-wise consumption & rnral-urban wise

break-up is not available. The forecast has been modulated to achieve the targets/objectives of

the National Electricity Policy in the year 201112.

1.5.1.3 !:"i'OIl.JI}li'lrii' Mode/ling Technique

The econometric model selected by Prof. Rao of JNU was a multi variate model using following

economic indicators:

(a) Total per capita GDP

(b) Sectoral GDP (All India & State-wise)

(c) Electricity Intensity

(d) Electricity Price

(e) Structural Changes (Service & export oriented sectoral)

The regression model equation used to work out projections of category-wise electricity

consumption by co-integration with related independent variables is given below:

LnQ = a + b.Ln(PCGDP) + c.Ln(P) + d. (SS) -e. (INTEN)

whers :

Ln

Q

PCGDP

=

Natural Logarithm

Electricity Demanc1

Per Capita Gross Domestic Product

\ 'hapt

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P

INTEN

SS

=

=

Electricity Price

Electricity Intensity (ratio between value-added produced by economy andelectricity consumed by the economy)

Stmctural Changes (Total Scrvice Sector Share in GDP)

a, b, c, d, e--n-------- are coefficients

Above equation with co-efficient values as per below was used:

LnQ = 1.400. Ln(PCGDP) - O.On.Ln(P) + 0.00824.INTEN + O.OI.SS

Forecasting at Aggregate Level

Using co-integration Equation cited above, forecast of aggregate electricity demand upto 2021-

2022, was made. PCGDP has been assumed to grow at the rate of 6,7 and 7.5 percent per year.

Time series techniques have been used to predict for clectricity intensity on the hasis of last

seven years. Electricity Prices have been assumed to grow at the rate of two percent per year at

constant prices. In total twelve scenarios for electricity forecasting has hecn made. It has been

assumed that the share of service sector would remain constant, i.e., it would be around 55

percent

Forecasting at Sectoral Level

For the sectoral forecasting, price information and the sectoral decomposition of GDP could be

collected only since 1992-93. Thereforc, in sectoral analysis, OLS was used rather than co-

integration tecbniques for forecasting. In the sectoral analysis it was as,umed that the sectoral

consumption is the function of sectoral GDP and tari ff rate in that sector. Trend analysis was

used for forecasting the consumption of electricity for railWay';' public lighting and water

sectors.

1.5.2 Forecast Beyond 2011-2012

1.5.2.1 The long term electricity demand projections for the period bcyond 2011-2012 upto the

year 2021-2022, following the results obtained using mcthodologies explained under sections

1.5.1.1& 1.5.1.2have been made by applying growth rates of overall electrical energy consumption

of the StatesfUTs as per the guiding factors detailed below, adding TDL having declining

percentage with lower ceiling as per CEA Guidelines and then using AELF having improvingtrend.

The growth rates for projection have been determined aftcr studying th" growth rates anticipated

npto the ycar and keeping in view the enlarging base. The peak t'lectric loads have been

cstimated after applying suitable annual electric load fact()j', in thp case of States and Union

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Territories and suitable annual diversity factors in the case of Regions. All India peak electric

load is the sum of the Regional peak electric loads divided by Annual Diversity Factor-Inter-Region (ADF-IR) and of Islands of Andaman & Nicobar and Lakshadweep. This method has

been adopted in absence of any indication about the likely development profile in the StatesfUTs.

The Annual Diversity Factor-Inter-State (ADF-IS) is estimated to have a declining trend in 12'h

& l3tl ' Five Year Plan period for the reasons already explained in para 1.5.1.1.6of this Report. The

Annual Diversity Factor-Inter-State (ADF-IS)for 2016-17 & 2021-22 for various Regions as

adopted for making long term projections are given below:

2021-22

Northern 1.07 1.06

Western 1.0625 1.055

Southern 1.035 1.03

Eastern 1.035 1.03

North Eastern 1.07 1.06

ADF-IR as estimated for the year 2016-17 & 2021-22 shall be 1.025 & 1.02 respectively.

As the long-term forecast is only an indicative forecast which would facilitate identification of

resources of power for advance action, it is to be considered that the present methodology would

meet the requirements. These long-tenn forecasts will have to be reviewed, from timc to time,

when the outlines of the perspective development on a longer time horizon become available.

1.6 ASSUMPTIONS

1.6.1 Partial End-Use Methodology

(a) The year 2003-04 has been assumed as the base year for forecasting the electricity demand.

The figures for the base year 2003-04 correspond to restricted electricity supply conditions.

The energy consumption figures for the base year are the actual electrical energy sold by

the Utilities or Licensees to the consumers. Therefore, in the case of utilities where

restrictionslload shedding lunder-frequency conditions were imposed, the consumption

during the base year would have been more than what has been indicated in the report.

Similarly, the real requirement of electrical energy during the base year would have beenmore than what has been indicated in the report. The figures of peak electric load in respect

of base year indicated in the report are recorded ones. Wherever restrictions were imposed,

the recorded peak electric loads would be lower than what would have been recorded under

unrestricted conditions.

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(b) The forecast of the electricity demand has been made for the utility systems only and,

therefore, docs not include a portion of demand of the HT Industries that would be met

from captive power plants.

(c) Gradual improvement in power supply position has been considered for the period 2005-

2006 to 2011-2012 aiming at power supply to all consumers during the year 2011-2012 i.e.

surplus power supply conditions having adequate spinning reserve. It has, therefore, been

assumed that the electricity shortages shall be wiped off completely in the year 2011-2012.

(d) National GDP is likely to grow at an average rate of 8 tolO % upto the year 2011-2012,

continue its growth at an average rate of about 8-10 % during 12'h plan period and is

estimated to grow at an average rate of about 8 % during 13th

plan.

(e) Higher growth rates of electricity consumption have been assumed for poor performing

StatesfUTs having low per capita electricity consumption, economic potential and scope of

development of various sectors.

(I) All rural households shall get electrified up to thc year 2011-2012 under accelerated rural

electrification programme.

(g) Number of domestic consumers for the year 2011-2012 shall be e qual to number of

estimated households for year 2011-20] 2.

(h) The States f UTs shall provide necessary infrastructural facilities for development of

electric load in various sectors and ensure restoration of closed industries and setting up of

new industries.

(i) The Annual Electric Load Factor is estimated to improve in the period beyond 20]]-2012

due to improved implementation of demand side management, advance techniques of load

management & differential tariff for peak & off peak hours.

(j) Reduction in Transmission & Distribution losses shall continue in the period beyond 2011-

2012 with an estimated achievement of T&D losses indicated in CEA's Guidelines.

(k) The Indian economy presently maintaining an elasticity ratio of about 0.75 between growth

rates of electricity & GDP shall have gradually declining elasticity ratio.

1.6.2 Methodology of Compematioll for Shortage in the Base Year (2004-2005)

(a) The base electricity demand in the year 2004-05 has been reckoned.

(b) The shortages have been worked out after accounting for the restrictions, cuts and underfrequency compensation as reported by the StatcsfUTs to CEA in their daily reports.

(c) The projections of the growth of electrical energy consumption and peak electric load

(StatefUT-wise) have been arrived at by applying compounded growth rates after adding

the actual shortages to the dem2nd met.

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CHAPTER-II

SUMMARY AND REVIEW

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CHAPTER II

SUMMARY AND REVIEW

2.1 ELECTRICITY FORECAST DIGEST


The electricity demand forecast is an important input for planning of the power sector to

meet the future power requirement of various sectors of electricity consumption. A planned load

growth in industry, agriculture, domestic and other sectors is necessary to have unified growth in

all sectors of economy and therefore it is necessary that infrastructure is planned in various

sectors of electricity consumption so as to direct the overall growth of economy in rational

manner. The 17'h EPS has considered appropriate growth rate in all sectors of the Indianeconomy to remove the constraints in the electricity supply and achieve accelerated GDP growth

over the growth qchieved during the last 5-8 years.

The electricity forecast exercise, the planning of the generation capacity and development

of the infrastructure in various sectors of electricity consumption are complementary to one

another. The capacity addition for generation and development of corresponding EHV

infrastructure is planned by Central Electricity Authority on long term basis. The present plans

for generation and transmission are aiming to meet the electricity requirement in full by 2011-

2012, make power available on demand and also provide for spinning reserve to improve the

quality and reliability of electricity supply.

The electricity consumption by the end consumer is the guiding factor for evaluating thc

electricity demand for the future. The energy consumption pattern are changing with the invent

of technology and energy conservation mcasures initiated by Government and the industrial

sector. Efforts have been made to collect the data on electricity saving on account of energy

conservation measures initiated by HT industries and the results have shown above 1.5% saving

in energy consumption during the year 2004-05. It has not becn possible to capture the electricity

saving in all sections of energy consumption. However, the higher weightage provided to the

latest trends in the energy conservation follows the latest trend in technology and energy

conservation efforts by various stake holders.

The electricity demand projections are based on various assumptions as enumerated in

Chapter-I. However, to achieve the maximum benefit of the forecast it would be necessary to

dcvelop infrastructure for transmission and distribution for uninterrupted flow of power to the

consumcr in all sectors of consumption like industry, agriculture, domestic, etc. particularly rural

sector, commercial, etc.

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It has be,'1l noticed in the past that there had been a gap between the electricity forecast alld

the aetllal achievements on all Indi~ basis. For some of the States the gap between the demand

projectiolls and the actual loa.d requiremellt had been very large due to scanty growth of the load

demand. There are 8 States for which the load growth had been scanty (less than 4%) while 17

States achieved moderate load growth of 4-1% against] 6'h BPS growth rate of 6.33% and a few

:lchieved high growth rates. The States with lower electricity demand growth rate arc

comparatively less developed States and if these States have to catch up with others, then tbey

arc required to accelerate their electricity cOllsumption in industry, commerce and agriculture so

as to generate sustainable economic developmellt. The electricity demand forecast has been

prepared based on the "forcsaid phi losophy so as to provide equitable growth ill the COUlltry .

2.2 ENERGY DEMAND AND THE PEAK LOAD DEMAND

lolectrical Ellergy Requirement and the Peak Load Demand are important elements of the

electrical supply projections. The electrical energy demand represents the productive clement

which goes into the cnpital building of the nRlion while peak demand is the operational

parameter of th~ utilization of electrical energy. The ideal energy requirement would point

t\,wards constant load throughout the period under consideration and for the purpose of EPS the

same is on yearly hasis. However the energy requirement of various consumers is different for

different season, iiF11~, place C1.1ld process and energy Jnd peak deumnd changes accordingly. The

r:llic) of peak dcnund and tbt~ I)rr-p( 'a1< demand in the ;\lllndi3 5YStcll1 varies upto iS O C ;;; over

sholt period and '.Ipio)OO% (monthly bilsis) over long term (yearly basis) on allnual basis. The

reduction 01' gap IJelw,,,,n IW,'k lo"d "Tld off-peak load wonld mean higher utilization of the

installed generating cnpaeity. The peak demand could be milnaged with prudent Demand Side1\-1anagement and co-ordination between various illdustriClI, agriculture, cOlnmercial and bulk

consumers. Though various State lItilities arc making effort to shave off the peak through various

initiatives like Timc or the Day ('100) metering and imposing load restrictions in various load

centrcs by rotation, it I~as been, however, noted in many States that the peak load growth has

beell much higher than the corresponding increase in the energy requirement. While there is

regular pattern in the growth of electrical energy, the peak load has noticed quantum jumps at

ilregular intervals over the years. The sudden jump in the peak demand growth are noticeable in

States with high industrialization, agriculture or commercial activities like Maharashtm, Punjab,

Gujarat, Andhra Pradesh etc. A stndy of the regional Load Duration Curve (LDC) reveals thm

the high peak persists for short period of less than half an hour on an average which contributes

to 5% peak demand, whereas th" },,,I peak persists for over 4 hours a day.

The high peak cai; be managed through various DSM and energy conservation measures,

thus the 2 " < ] peek which is of the order of 95% of the high peak is the rea] system peak. Tbe freak

variations of 56% in peak demand can appenr for short duration on State basis. Thus, the

quantum iucrease in the peak Iknland without corresponding increase in the energy requirement

woult! he harlll()J\iI,(~d nv(':" JOllV perIod alld arc. therefore, treated as freak illcrc,lse in the load

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demand without having significant impact on systcm operation. Such freak variations of peal S-.l 30,000Q

. : . :e o

& :25,000

20,000

15,000 '

10000, - , i 1998-99 1999- 00' 2000, Oil 2001 - 02 2002 - 03eo

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320000

- ---Chart 2.3(A)

Western Region: Energy Kequirement (GWH)

I220000 ~-

170000

120000

2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10

"~~~

it '0

s0

~h~'3'0~

'~'

9/

I ""

223054 233486 244481 256075 268307

Shortage

70000

Estimated

* Actual Avl.

1998-99 1999-00 2000-01

ActualAvl. 106807 116518 121617 132217

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Chart 2.3(B)

Western Region: Peak Demand (MW)

50,000

45,000 ~------'--~------'

30,000--