2005 Residential Heating & Fuel Type Survey Results
ERCOT Load ProfilingPresentation to PWG
October 26, 2005
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Residential Heating & Fuel Type SurveyResidential Heating & Fuel Type Survey
Objective:
Develop a more accurate algorithm to predict presence and use of electric heat for residential customers and collect data to support analysis to potentially develop new profile types
Design: 41,000 bilingual survey forms (including pilot) mailed Stratified by Weather Zone and Profile Type
—2,563 RESHIWR per Weather Zone—2,562 RESLOWR per Weather Zone
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Residential Survey ResultsResidential Survey Results (including Pilot)(including Pilot)
Response 4,669 responses as of 09/30/2005 11.4% response rate
Phone Calls Generated 68 calls received (ERCOT provided ‘800’ number) Frequent Questions/Comments
— More info about survey— Wrong name to address matching— Electric account set up— Complaints regarding electric service
Budget $38,772 actual cost ($50,000 was the approved budget) included
— Market Researcher— Name to Address Service— ‘800’ number— Post Office services— Postage— Misc (ex., mileage)
Savings resulted largely from ERCOT obtaining & using a temporary PO Box & Business Reply Mail account
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The following slides represent responses received from the ERCOT 2005 Heating and Fuel Type Survey. Responses are unvalidated. Survey Questions
1. What classification (Dwelling type) best fits this address?
2. What is the primary type of home heating used at this residence?
3. If you replied “electricity” to question 2, is your heating system a heat pump?
4. What type of air conditioning is used at this residence?
5. Have you added central electric cooling or heating in the last 2 years?
6. What is the approximate square footage of living space in your residence?
7. What is the approximate age of your residence?
8. What fuel does the water heating system for this residence use?
Residential Heating & Fuel Type SurveyResidential Heating & Fuel Type Survey
5
Responses by WZone/Profile TypeResponses by WZone/Profile Type
8.5% 12.6% 10.5% 9.9% 13.6% 11.3% 10.6% 14.1%Responses / Mailed
by WZone
Num ber of Survey Responses by WZone & Profile Type
371LOWR275
LOWR
325LOWR
365LOWR303
LOWR
309LOWR
355LOWR262
LOWR
350HIWR
268HIWR
252HIWR
333HIWR
205HIWR
231HIWR
289HIWR
176HIWR
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
COAST EAST FWEST NCENT NORTH SCENT SOUTH WEST
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Q1 – Dwelling TypeQ1 – Dwelling Type
Percent of Dwelling Classification by Profile Type
77%
58%65%
57% 60%
71% 70%63% 66%
3%
4%
4%
3%
3% 5%
4%3%
17%
34%28%
36%33%
21% 24%
31% 27%
4% 3% 5% 4% 4%
2%
3%3% 3%1%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
COAST EAST FWEST NCENT NORTH SCENT SOUTH WEST ERCOT
Multi Fam.HIWR
Single Fam.HIWR
Multi Fam.LOWR
Single Fam.LOWR
Single Family Multi Family Single Family Multi FamilyCOAST 76.8% 3.4% 16.9% 2.9%EAST 58.1% 4.0% 33.8% 4.1%FWEST 64.8% 4.0% 27.8% 3.4%NCENT 56.6% 2.1% 36.1% 5.2%NORTH 60.1% 3.5% 33.3% 3.1%SCENT 71.5% 3.0% 21.4% 4.2%SOUTH 69.9% 5.2% 24.0% 0.9%WEST 62.8% 3.8% 30.9% 2.6%ERCOT 66.0% 3.1% 27.2% 3.7%
RESLOWR RESHIWRDwelling Classification
ERCOT 2005 Residential Survey Results
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Q2 – Primary Home HeatQ2 – Primary Home Heat
Electricity Natural/Bottled Gas Other/Not Sure
Overall - Percent of Home Heat Type(RESLOWR & RESHIWR)
36.0%
52.2%
36.5%
51.4%
41.6% 44.9%
69.6%
46.7% 46.9%
62.5%
47.5%
62.7%
47.7%
57.3%54.8%
29.2%
52.2% 52.0%
0.35% 0.80% 0.98% 1.02% 0.33% 1.19% 1.18% 1.14%1.45%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
COAST EAST FWEST NCENT NORTH SCENT SOUTH WEST ERCOT
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Q2 – Primary Home HeatQ2 – Primary Home Heat
Electricity Natural/Bottled Gas Other/Not Sure
RESLOWR Respondents - Percent of Home Heat Type
25%31%
21%26%
19%
31%
63%
30% 30%
74%68%
78%73%
80%
69%
35%
68% 69%
1.0% 1.0% 1.1% 1.2%0.6% 0.3% 1.3%1.5%1.5%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
COAST EAST FWEST NCENT NORTH SCENT SOUTH WEST ERCOT
RESHIWR Respondents - Percent of Home Heat Type
81%87%
71%
88%81%
86% 89%79%
85%
29%20%
1.1% 0.0% 0.4% 1.0% 0.9% 0.4% 0.4% 0.9% 0.9%
14%11%13%18%11%13%
18%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
COAST EAST FWEST NCENT NORTH SCENT SOUTH WEST ERCOT
By Profile TypeBy Profile Type
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Q3 – If Electricity, is it a Heat Pump?Q3 – If Electricity, is it a Heat Pump?
Electric Heat RespondentsPercent of Heat Pumps by Profile Type
10.2% 12.1%7.3% 6.8% 10.0%
17.9% 16.9%13.1% 10.0%
5.3%
21.3%
16.6% 17.3%
30.4% 16.7%
6.8%
24.6%
13.0%
84.5%
66.6%
76.0% 76.0%
59.5%65.4%
76.3%
62.3%
77.0%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
COAST EAST FWEST NCENT NORTH SCENT SOUTH WEST ERCOT
No/Not SureLOWR &HIWR
Heat PumpHIWR
Heat PumpLOWR
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Heat Pump/Age of ResidenceHeat Pump/Age of Residence
Heat Pump RespondentsPercent of Age of Residence
5.6%
27.4%
46.6%
20.4%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
30.0%
35.0%
40.0%
45.0%
50.0%
Less than 5 years 5 to 15 years 16 to 30 years More than 30years
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Q4 – Air Conditioning TypeQ4 – Air Conditioning Type
Central Window/Wall Evaporative Other None Not SureCOAST 96.9% 6.5% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.4%EAST 86.2% 22.0% 0.0% 1.4% 0.8% 0.3%FWEST 81.6% 19.1% 10.7% 1.6% 0.6% 0.0%NCENT 91.1% 13.2% 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.7%NORTH 78.1% 28.8% 0.5% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0%SCENT 93.2% 12.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.6% 0.0%SOUTH 76.7% 26.5% 0.4% 0.4% 2.9% 0.0%WEST 80.6% 22.6% 3.2% 0.3% 1.6% 0.0%ERCOT 90.9% 13.0% 0.6% 0.3% 0.4% 0.0%
Central Window/Wall Evaporative Other None Not SureCOAST 91.5% 10.2% 0.6% 0.6% 0.6% 0.6%EAST 89.6% 19.0% 0.0% 1.7% 0.3% 0.0%FWEST 87.0% 16.9% 8.2% 0.4% 0.9% 0.0%NCENT 94.1% 11.7% 0.0% 1.5% 1.0% 0.0%NORTH 89.2% 17.4% 0.6% 0.9% 0.0% 0.0%SCENT 90.9% 15.9% 0.0% 0.4% 0.8% 0.4%SOUTH 83.2% 21.3% 0.0% 1.1% 1.5% 0.4%WEST 87.4% 16.6% 1.7% 1.4% 0.6% 0.0%ERCOT 91.8% 13.0% 0.4% 1.2% 0.8% 0.2%
RESHIWR
RESLOWR
ERCOT 2005 Residential Survey ResultsAir Conditioning Type
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Central Air Conditioning/Window WallCentral Air Conditioning/Window Wall
Window/Wall – No Central ACCentral AC – No Window/Wall Central AC & Window/Wall
Central AC / Window Wall AC
92.8%
79.1% 80.5%87.5%
75.1%
86.4%
74.2%78.9%
87.0%
3.8%
8.9% 9.5%
5.8%
7.8%
7.1%
5.9%
6.6%
5.4%
3.4%
12.0% 10.1% 6.7%
17.1%
6.4%
19.9%14.5%
7.7%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
COAST EAST FWEST NCENT NORTH SCENT SOUTH WEST ERCOT
13Evap. Cooler – No Central ACCentral AC – No Evap. Cooler Central AC & Evap. Cooler
Central Air Conditioning/EvaporativeCentral Air Conditioning/Evaporative
Central AC / Evaporative Coolers
99.6% 100.0%
89.3%
100.0%99.3%
100.0% 99.6%
96.8%
99.4%
0.1%
0.1%
0.8%
10.5%
0.6%
2.4%0.2%0.4%0.3%
0.1%0.4%
85%
87%
89%
91%
93%
95%
97%
99%
COAST EAST FWEST NCENT NORTH SCENT SOUTH WEST ERCOT
14Evap. Cooler – No Window WallWindow Wall – No Evap. Cooler Window Wall & Evap. Cooler
Window Wall AC/EvaporativeWindow Wall AC/Evaporative
Window Wall AC / Evaporative
94.4%
100.0%
60.4%
100.0%97.7%
100.0% 98.9%
88.1%
95.9%
11.6%
5.6%
28.0%
1.8% 1.1%
10.7%
3.4%
0.7%0.4%
1.3%
50%
55%
60%
65%
70%
75%
80%
85%
90%
95%
100%
COAST EAST FWEST NCENT NORTH SCENT SOUTH WEST ERCOT
15
BOO!
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Q5 – Added Central Elec. Cooling/HeatingQ5 – Added Central Elec. Cooling/Heating
Cooling Heating Both No Not SureCOAST 1.9% 0.0% 0.0% 96.2% 1.1%EAST 4.8% 2.0% 1.7% 93.2% 0.6%FWEST 5.8% 2.6% 1.9% 91.6% 0.6%NCENT 3.0% 1.0% 1.0% 93.4% 1.7%NORTH 4.4% 1.6% 1.6% 93.2% 0.3%SCENT 1.8% 0.6% 0.3% 94.2% 1.8%SOUTH 8.0% 3.6% 3.3% 88.4% 1.5%WEST 5.1% 2.2% 1.6% 91.6% 0.8%ERCOT 3.3% 1.0% 0.9% 93.9% 1.3%
Cooling Heating Both No Not SureCOAST 3.4% 2.3% 1.7% 93.8% 1.7%EAST 2.4% 1.7% 1.4% 94.8% 1.4%FWEST 6.1% 2.2% 1.7% 90.5% 2.2%NCENT 6.3% 2.9% 2.9% 90.2% 2.4%NORTH 4.2% 3.0% 2.4% 94.9% 0.6%SCENT 4.4% 2.8% 2.8% 92.5% 2.4%SOUTH 6.3% 5.2% 4.5% 91.0% 1.1%WEST 5.4% 2.9% 2.6% 92.3% 1.1%ERCOT 5.4% 2.9% 2.6% 91.6% 2.0%
ERCOT 2005 Residential Survey ResultsAdded Central Electric Cooling or Heating (last 2 years)
RESLOWR
RESHIWR
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Q6 – Sq. Footage of Living SpaceQ6 – Sq. Footage of Living Space
Less 1,000 2,001 Greater Notthan 1,000 to 2,000 to 3,000 than 3,000 Sure
COAST 4.7% 39.5% 36.4% 15.9% 3.5%EAST 7.0% 49.3% 25.4% 7.3% 11.0%FWEST 10.4% 43.8% 25.0% 10.7% 10.1%NCENT 7.0% 42.7% 30.8% 15.2% 4.3%NORTH 12.1% 53.4% 17.9% 3.6% 12.9%SCENT 5.9% 51.2% 27.5% 10.2% 5.2%SOUTH 14.7% 52.0% 18.7% 2.2% 12.5%WEST 13.6% 53.1% 20.6% 4.6% 8.1%ERCOT 7.3% 43.4% 30.7% 13.0% 5.6%
Less 1,000 2,001 Greater Notthan 1,000 to 2,000 to 3,000 than 3,000 Sure
COAST 16.6% 54.9% 17.7% 5.7% 5.1%EAST 14.2% 50.3% 21.5% 7.6% 6.3%FWEST 11.7% 47.8% 27.4% 6.1% 7.0%NCENT 10.8% 62.6% 19.7% 3.4% 3.4%NORTH 12.3% 54.4% 23.4% 3.9% 6.0%SCENT 18.8% 48.0% 22.0% 4.8% 6.4%SOUTH 15.7% 54.4% 17.6% 4.6% 7.7%WEST 13.2% 53.2% 19.3% 6.0% 8.3%ERCOT 13.0% 58.4% 19.5% 4.4% 4.7%
Approximate Square Footage of Living Space
RESLOWR
RESHIWR
ERCOT 2005 Residential Survey Results
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Q7 – Age of ResidenceQ7 – Age of Residence
Less than More Not5 years 5 to 15 16 to 30 than 30 Sure
COAST 7.3% 22.9% 35.9% 34.0% 0.0%EAST 2.5% 13.5% 30.1% 50.1% 3.4%FWEST 2.9% 10.4% 22.7% 60.5% 3.6%NCENT 5.6% 22.4% 28.4% 42.2% 1.3%NORTH 1.1% 7.9% 24.4% 63.0% 3.6%SCENT 6.5% 42.2% 30.5% 19.1% 1.8%SOUTH 3.6% 21.1% 29.1% 43.6% 2.5%WEST 1.9% 10.8% 29.9% 53.1% 4.0%ERCOT 5.7% 21.6% 31.4% 40.1% 1.2%
Less than More Not5 years 5 to 15 16 to 30 than 30 Sure
COAST 5.1% 13.1% 46.6% 29.5% 5.7%EAST 4.2% 24.9% 37.7% 27.0% 6.2%FWEST 1.3% 8.2% 39.0% 45.9% 5.6%NCENT 5.9% 19.5% 44.4% 25.4% 4.9%NORTH 2.1% 15.0% 45.0% 35.1% 2.7%SCENT 6.0% 29.0% 38.9% 21.4% 4.4%SOUTH 4.9% 25.7% 31.3% 36.6% 1.5%WEST 1.7% 17.1% 38.9% 39.7% 2.6%ERCOT 5.2% 18.4% 43.1% 28.6% 4.7%
ERCOT 2005 Residential Survey ResultsApproximate Age of the Residence
RESHIWR
RESLOWR
19Electricity Natural/Bottled Gas Other/Not Sure
Primary Heat/Age of ResidencePrimary Heat/Age of Residence
ERCOT Age of Residence / Primary Heat
50.1% 52.4% 55.8%
33.2%
49.4% 45.8%43.8%
65.5%
0.5% 1.3%0.4%1.8%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Less than 5 years 5 to 15 years 16 to 30 years More than 30years
20Electricity Natural/Bottled Gas Other/Not Sure
Primary Heat/Age of ResidencePrimary Heat/Age of Residence
NCENTAge of Residence / Primary Heat
55.8% 57.9%65.0%
31.5%
44.2% 41.1%34.4%
67.4%
0.9% 0.6% 1.1%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Less than 5 years 5 to 15 years 16 to 30 years More than 30years
COAST Age of Residence / Primary Heat
36.8% 34.1%40.5%
30.8%
63.2%62.4%
59.5%
67.4%
3.5% 1.8%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Less than 5 years 5 to 15 years 16 to 30 years More than 30years
EAST Age of Residence / Primary Heat
61.1%
72.5%
60.9%
33.8%
38.9%
27.5%
38.6%
65.8%
0.5% 0.4%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Less than 5 years 5 to 15 years 16 to 30 years More than 30years
FWESTAge of Residence / Primary Heat
48.2%41.6%
52.5%
25.5%
51.8%58.4%
47.5%
73.7%
0.8%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Less than 5 years 5 to 15 years 16 to 30 years More than 30years
21Electricity Natural/Bottled Gas Other/Not Sure
Primary Heat/Age of ResidencePrimary Heat/Age of Residence
WESTAge of Residence / Primary Heat
80.4%
67.1%
54.2%
34.5%
19.6%
31.5%
44.2%
64.9%
1.4% 1.7% 0.6%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Less than 5 years 5 to 15 years 16 to 30 years More than 30years
SOUTHAge of Residence / Primary Heat
83.8% 87.1%80.3%
51.0%
9.3%12.9%
48.1%
6.9% 0.9% 0.9%
18.8%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Less than 5 years 5 to 15 years 16 to 30 years More than 30years
SCENTAge of Residence / Primary Heat
65.8%
39.4%
53.9%
30.3%
34.2%
60.0%
45.8%
69.7%
0.6% 0.3%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Less than 5 years 5 to 15 years 16 to 30 years More than 30years
NORTHAge of Residence / Primary Heat
76.2% 74.1%
57.2%
24.6%
23.8% 25.9%
41.7%
74.2%
1.1% 1.3%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Less than 5 years 5 to 15 years 16 to 30 years More than 30years
22
Electricity Natural/Bottled Gas Solar Other/Not SureCOAST 23.5% 72.8% 0.0% 3.4%EAST 42.8% 55.0% 0.0% 2.2%FWEST 30.9% 67.1% 0.0% 2.0%NCENT 41.1% 55.9% 0.0% 3.0%NORTH 38.6% 60.7% 0.0% 0.7%SCENT 35.2% 61.1% 0.4% 3.0%SOUTH 56.1% 41.6% 0.0% 1.8%WEST 40.8% 57.7% 0.0% 1.2%ERCOT 36.0% 61.0% 0.0% 2.8%
Water Heating System Fuel Type
Overall - RESLOWR & RESHIWR
ERCOT 2005 Residential Survey Results
Electricity Natural/Bottled Gas Solar Other/Not Sure Electricity Natural/Bottled Gas Solar Other/Not SureCOAST 12.6% 84.4% 0.0% 2.7% COAST 67.6% 26.1% 0.0% 6.3%EAST 22.3% 75.5% 0.0% 2.3% EAST 76.5% 21.5% 0.0% 2.1%FWEST 16.5% 81.2% 0.0% 2.3% FWEST 62.8% 35.9% 0.0% 1.3%NCENT 14.5% 82.8% 0.0% 2.6% NCENT 79.0% 17.6% 0.0% 3.4%NORTH 16.2% 83.0% 0.0% 0.8% NORTH 77.8% 21.6% 0.0% 0.6%SCENT 22.2% 74.5% 0.3% 2.8% SCENT 73.4% 22.2% 0.8% 3.6%SOUTH 52.0% 45.5% 0.0% 2.2% SOUTH 68.7% 29.9% 0.0% 0.7%WEST 25.1% 73.6% 0.0% 0.8% WEST 72.0% 26.0% 0.0% 2.0%ERCOT 18.7% 78.6% 0.0% 2.5% ERCOT 74.6% 21.7% 0.0% 3.6%
RESLOWR RESHIWR
Q8 – Water Heating System Fuel TypeQ8 – Water Heating System Fuel Type
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Primary Heat/Water Heating System FuelPrimary Heat/Water Heating System Fuel
Electricity Natural/Bottled Gas Solar Other/Not SureElectricity 70.1% 25.3% 0.0% 4.5%Natural/Bottled Gas 5.7% 93.8% 0.0% 0.5%Other/not sure 11.5% 34.7% 0.0% 53.8%
Electricity Natural/Bottled Gas Solar Other/Not SureElectricity 49.3% 45.2% 0.0% 5.4%Natural/Bottled Gas 5.6% 93.8% 0.0% 0.5%Other/not sure 14.6% 25.6% 0.0% 59.8%
Electricity Natural/Bottled Gas Solar Other/Not SureElectricity 86.3% 9.8% 0.0% 3.9%Natural/Bottled Gas 6.9% 92.9% 0.0% 0.2%Other/not sure 3.2% 65.8% 0.0% 31.0%
ERCOT 2005 Residential Survey Results
Home Heat
Home Heat
Home Heat
Water Heating System Fuel
Water Heating System FuelOverall - RESLOWR & RESHIWR
RESLOWR
RESHIWRWater Heating System Fuel
Primary Heat to Water Heating System Fuel
24
Questions?