2012 Elections In Maryland
Dan Nataf, Ph.D.Director, Center for the Study of Local Issues
Anne Arundel Community Collegewww2.aacc.edu/csli
National ResultsPopular Vote
Electoral College
Obama 50 332Romney 48 206
National Results
2008 2012 2012-2008
Obama % 53 50 -3
Popular vote 69,456,897
61,713,086
-7,743,811
Electoral College 365 332 -33
McCain/Romney% 46 48 +2
Popular vote 59,934,814
58,510,150
-1,424,664
Electoral College 173 206 +33
How did the pollsters do?Gallup Tracking Poll – Sept. – Nov. 4
1-Se
p 2 3 4 5 6 7 11 12 13 14 15 16 20 23 24 25 29 30
Otobe
r 2 4 6 10 15 16 18 21 23 24 26 28
Nov. 4
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
47 47 47 47
48
49 49
50 50
49
48 48
47 47
48 48
50
49 49 49
50
49
48
47
46
47
48 48 48 48 48
49
46 46 46 46
45 45
44 44 44 44
45
46 46
47
46
45
44 44
45 45 45
46 46
47
48 48
47 47
48
47 47
46ObamaRomneyOct
22Oct 16
Oct 3
Oct 11
Registered voters – add 3+/- to Romney for likely voters
Washington Post/ABC Daily Tracking Poll (Likely voters)
Map of Battleground States
Nev.
Colo.
Iowa
Wis
Ohio
Va.
NH
Fl.
NC
Battleground Vote Estimates 11-1
Colorado Obama RomneyVotamatic Drew Linzer votamatic.org/ 51 49Nate Silver fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/author/nate-silver/ 50.1 48.9RCP www.realclearpolitics.com/ 48.6 47.7
Average 49.9 48.5Actual results 51 47
FloridaVotamatic 50 50Silver 49.4 50.1RCP 47.9 49.1
Average 49.1 49.7Actual results 50 49
IowaVotamatic 51.7 48.3Silver 51 48RCP 48.2 46.2
Average 50.3 47.5Actual results 52 46
NevadaVotamatic 52 48Silver 51.3 47.8RCP 50 47.3
Average 51.1 47.7Actual results 52 46
New HampshireVotamatic 51.7 48.3Silver 51 48.2RCP 48.8 47.5
Average 50.5 48Actual results 52 46
Obama RomneyNorth Carolina
Votamatic 49 51Silver 48.4 51RCP 46 49.8
Average 47.8 50.6Actual results 48 51
OhioVotamatic 51.6 48.4
Silver 50.7 48.1RCP 48.9 46.6
Average 50.4 47.7Actual results 50 48
VirginiaVotamatic 51 49
Silver 50.1 49.2RCP 47.9 47.4
Average 49.7 48.5Actual results 51 48
WisconsinVotamatic 52.4 47.6
Silver 51.6 47.6RCP 50 45
Average 51.3 46.7Actual results 53 46
Total Votamatic none None
Silver 50.5 48.6RCP 47.4 47.3
Average 49 4850 48
Electoral CollegeVotamatic (and actual results) 332 206Silver 300 237RCP 290 248Average 307 230
Dem Margins: EC vs. PV (1952-2012)
1952 1956 1960 1964 1968 1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012
-100
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
-66-72
16
80
-22
-94
10
-82
-96
-58
38 40
0
-6
36
24
-11-15
0
23
0
-23
2
-10-17
-7
5 8
-4 -3
73
Dem EC Margin Dem PV Margin
Popular Vote: 1952-2012
1952 1956 1960 1964 1968 1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 20120
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
4442
50
61
43
38
50
41 41
46
43
49 48 48
5351
5557
50
38
43
61
48
51
58
53
38
41
48
51
4648
Dem Rep
Electoral College Percentages: 1952-2012
1952 1956 1960 1964 1968 1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 20120
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
1714
58
90
39
3
55
9
2
21
69 70
5047
68
62
8386
42
10
61
97
45
91
98
79
31 30
5053
32
38
DemEC% RepEC%
Exit Poll: DemographicsTrait Obama Romne
y
Men (47% ) 45 52
Women (53%) 55 44
18-29 (19%) 60 37
30-44 (27%) 52 45
45-64 (38%) 47 51
65+ (16%) 44 56
Urban (32%) 62 36
Suburban (47%)
48 50
Rural (21%) 39 59
White (72%) 39 59
Black (13%) 93 7
Latino (10%) 71 27
Trait Obama Romney
Liberal (25%) 86 14
Moderate (41%) 56 41
Conservative (35% )
17 82
Republican (32%)
7 93
Independent (29%)
45 50
Democrat (38% ) 92 8
<$100k (72%) 54 44
>$100 (28%) 44 54
Protestant (53%)
42 57
Catholic (25%) 50 48
None (12%)
70 26http://reporting.sunlightfoundation.com/2012/return_on_investment/
Exit Poll: IssuesTrait Obama Romne
y
Abortion legal (59 ) 67 31
Abortion illegal (36 )
22 77
Health Care (18%) 75 24
Housing market (8%)
63 32
Foreign Policy (5%) 56 33
Unemployment (38%)
54 44
Taxes (14%) 32 66
Deficit (15%) 32 66
Economy (59%) 47 51
Rising Prices (37%)
49 49
Trait Obama Romney
Don’t repeal HC reform (44%)
87 13
Repeal (49%) 15 83
Increase taxes for all (13%)
52 44
Increase taxes for rich (47%)
70 29
No tax increase (35%)
23 75
Most illegal immigrants should be offered legal status (65%)
61 37
Deport (28%) 24 73
More in touch - Obama/Romney (53%)/(43%)
91 98
National Demographic Lessons• Solid Democratic voters: Liberals, African-
Americans, Latinos, seculars, single, under 30• Lean Democratic: moderates, 30-44, women, • Uncertain: Suburban, Catholics• Lean Republican: unaffiliated/indep., white,
Protestants, married, males, 45-64, 65+• Solid Republican: Conservatives, rural
Senate:
Dem Wins
Rep Wins
23 8
7 open 3 open
3 (or4) party
change
1 party change
+ 2 indep.
Maine/Vermont
Margin (%)
0-5 6-10 11-15 15+
Dem 4 7 2 14
Rep 2 0 0 6
Dems: 55 (with 2 independents) Reps: 45
National Results: Election findings
• Presidential races lean Democratic but without clear hegemony
• Senate races lean Democratic, but depends on local candidates
• House – resists Democratic trend due to Republican gerrymandering (based on 2010 state legislative election results)
• Shifting coalitions – “new emerging Democratic majority” underlies trend
• Elections close enough – perfect ground game needed to win
Maryland: Presidential Results
In percent 2008 2012 2012-2008
Obama 61.9 61.3 -.6
McCain/Romney
36.5 36.6 +.1
In votes 2008 2012 2012-2008
Obama 1,629,467 1,547,359 -82108
McCain/Romney
959,862 923,684 -36178
Presidential Vote by County, % Supporting
County Obama RomneyAllegany County 32 65 Anne Arundel County 48 49 Baltimore City 87 11 Baltimore County 57 41 Calvert County 45 53 Caroline County 37 61 Carroll County 32 65 Cecil County 39 59 Charles County 65 34 Dorchester County 46 53 Frederick County 47 51 Garrett County 23 75 Harford County 39 58 Howard County 59 38 Kent County 49 49 Montgomery County 71 27 Prince George's County 90 9 Queen Anne's County 34 64 St. Mary's County 41 57 Somerset County 48 51 Talbot County 43 56 Washington County 40 58 Wicomico County 46 52 Worcester County 40 58
Presidential Vote by County, 2012
Dream Act by County, % Supporting
Redistricting by County, % Supporting
Same Sex Marriage, % Supporting
All Votes by County, % Supporting (ranked by “overall”)
PercentagesDream (Q4)
Redistricting (Q5) SSM (Q6)
Casinos (Q7) Obama Overall
Standard Deviation
Majorities in 8 21 6 12 6 11Garrett County 36 46 27 42 23 35 10Carroll County 37 46 43 45 32 41 6Allegany County 39 51 34 59 32 43 12Caroline County 40 59 37 46 37 43 9Queen Anne's County 40 54 44 47 34 44 7Washington County 39 50 38 57 40 45 8Harford County 41 58 44 47 39 46 7Cecil County 43 65 44 43 39 47 10Talbot County 47 56 48 42 43 47 6Dorchester County 47 62 38 50 46 49 9Kent County 49 56 49 42 49 49 5Anne Arundel County 49 54 52 46 48 50 3Worcester County 47 67 42 54 40 50 11Calvert County 46 62 45 57 45 51 8Frederick County 49 56 51 52 47 51 3St. Mary's County 47 64 44 58 41 51 10Somerset County 52 67 34 54 48 51 12
Wicomico County 51 71 39 54 46 52 12Baltimore County 52 59 51 49 57 54 4Howard County 61 65 59 47 59 58 6Charles County 60 73 45 61 65 61 10Montgomery County 72 65 65 55 71 66 7Baltimore City 70 73 57 53 87 68 14Prince George's County 75 78 49 60 90 70 16
Overall 58/42 64/36 52/48 52/48 63 51
Lessons for State Elections
• Democratic hegemony remains unchanging• Solid Democratic jurisdictions – Montgomery,
PG, Charles, Baltimore City• Lean Democratic - Howard, Baltimore County• Battleground Counties: Anne Arundel, Kent,
Somerset, Wicomico, Dorchester
Anne Arundel County:Presidential Vote: 2008 vs. 2012
District Obama 08
McCain 08
Obama 12
Romney 12
Obama 12-08
McCain-
Romney
1 51 47.7 51.6 45.4 +.6 -2.3
2 49.9 49.4 49.4 47.1 -.5 -2.3
3 36.5 63.5 35 62 -1.5 -1.5
4 58.5 40.9 56.7 40.6 -1.8 -.3
5 43.3 55.9 40.7 56.6 -2.6 +.7
6 57.8 41.6 53.3 44.3 -4.5 +2.7
7 44 55.5 41.7 55.9 -2.3 +.4Absentee/Early/ Provisional
52 47.3 58.4 40.3 +6.4 -7
Total 48.2 50 48.3 49.2 +.1 -.8Libertarian: ‘08 = .5 ‘12 = 1.4 Green: ’08 = .7 ‘12 = .7 Total: 1.2/2.1
Anne Arundel County:Presidential Vote: 2008 vs. 2012
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Early30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
51 50
37
59
43
58
44
52
48 49
64
41
56
42
56
47
52
49
35
57
41
53
42
58
45
47
62
41
57
44
56
40
Ob '08 MC '08 Ob '12 Rom '12
AA County: Early Vote - 2012
Obama Romney
Early Vote Center
Election Day
Early/Provsional/Absentee
Obama Early-
Election Day
Obama Early – Romney
Early
1 51.6 70.9 27.7 19.3 43.22 49.4 60.9 37.8 11.5 23.13 35 45.2 53.3 10.2 -8.14 56.7 66.5 32 9.8 34.55 40.7 45.7 53.1 5 -7.4
Overall 48.3 49.2 -.9
AA County Lessons• County has purple qualities – support some
Democratic initiatives (SSM, redistricting) but less so others (Dream, Casinos)
• Maximum turnout election still results in Democratic electoral minority for top of ticket
• Local Democratic candidates still need to be cautious about distancing themselves from national and statewide candidates
• Council districts seem evenly split: Dem: 1, 4, 6; Rep: 3,5, 7. Battleground district is 2
AAC: Obama Vote by Demographics
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45
-100
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
Lib, 84
13
-67
64
-76
-9-13
2
-48
2 1
36
50
-20-21
-8
8
-8 -15
90
2922
-29-21
60
-13
-55
13
21
-13
1911
-12
6
22
13
-7-10
-4
71+, -21
Dream Act by Demographic Variables
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
Lib, 43
Mod, -4
Cons, -56
Dem, 17
Rep, -53
-16
-39
-27-31
-6
PGW, 11
-34
-14-16 -18
-9-15 -15
Student, 17
-47
Not LabMkt, 11
-19
-2
NoRel, 36
-26
WhiteEvang, -52
-26
Jewish, 30
-23
-35
Spiritual, 12
-21
-14
Sep/Div, 5
-2
-21
-7
Same Sex Marriage by Demographics
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
Lib, 65
20
-48
30
-38
20
HS Dip, -25
-7-10
1218
-12
-3
-15
1411
8
26
6
-24
47
31
-15-21
40
-7
-22
35
-3
40
-8
-17
22 21
51
-3-5-6
-24
Dream Act by Demographic Variables
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
Lib, 43
Mod, -4
Cons, -56
Dem, 17
Rep, -53
-16
-39
-27-31
-6
PGW, 11
-34
-14-16
-18
-9-15 -15
Defense, -48
Student, 17
-47
Not LabMkt, 11
-19
-2
NoRel, 36
-26
WhiteEvang, -52
-26
Jewish, 30
-23
-35
Spiritual, 12
-21
-14
Sep/Div, 5
-2
-21
-7
AAC: Demographic Lessons
• Solid Democratic voters: Liberals, Blacks (except SSM), Jews, $0-50k, seculars, single, under 30
• Lean Democratic: moderates, 31-40, women, $150-250k
• Uncertain: some college, BA, PostGrad work, 61-70
• Lean Republican: unaffiliated, HS Diploma, $50-150k, >$250k, white, Protestants, Catholic, married, males, 41-60, 71+
• Solid Republican: Conservatives, 2 year degree, Other Christians, White Evangelicals