2013 ATLANTIC BASIN HURRICANE SEASONJune 1 – December 30
Walter Hays, Global Alliance for Disaster Reduction, Vienna,
Virginia, USA
OVER 100 YEARS OF HISTORY: ATLANTIC AND PACIFIC BASINS
COMMUNITYCOMMUNITYCOMMUNITYCOMMUNITY
DATA BASES DATA BASES AND INFORMATIONAND INFORMATIONDATA BASES DATA BASES AND INFORMATIONAND INFORMATION
•SEVERE WINDSTORMS•INVENTORY•VULNERABILITY•LOCATION
RISK ASSESSMENTRISK ASSESSMENT
RISK
ACCEPTABLE RISK
UNACCEPTABLE RISK
SEVERE WINDSTORM SEVERE WINDSTORM DISASTER RESILIENCEDISASTER RESILIENCE
•PREPAREDNESS•PROTECTION•EARLY WARNING•EMERGENCY RESPONSE•RECOVERY and RECONSTRUCTION
POLICY OPTIONSPOLICY OPTIONS
Wind profileWind profile
Storm Hazards:Storm Hazards:-Wind pressure-Surge-Rain-Flood-Waves-Salt water-Missiles-Tornadoes
OceanOceanOceanOcean
Gradient WindGradient Wind
PRE-SEASONFORECAST OF THE NATIONAL OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC
ADMINISTRATION
FORECAST: 13-20 NAMED STORMS
WITH 7-10
BECOMING HURRICANES
STORM NAMES 2013 SEASON
CHRONOLOGY OF 2013’s STORMS
• ANDREA - Tropical Storm; June 5
• BARRY - Tropical Storm; June 19
• CHANTAL – Tropical Storm; July 7
• DORIAN – Tropical Storm; July 22
• ERIN – Tropical Storm; August 14
• FERNAND –Trop. Storm; August 16
• GABRIELLE – Trop. Storm; Aug. 25
CHRONOLOGY OF 2013’S STORMS
• HUMBERTO – Hurricane; Sept 10
• INGRID – Hurricane; Sept. 13
• JERRY – Tropical storm; Sept. 30
• KAREN – Tropical storm; Oct. 3
• LORENZO –
• MELISSA –
• NESTOR –
CHRONOLOGY OF 2013’S STORMS
• OLGA –
• PABLO –
• REBEKAH –
• SEBASTIEN –
• TANYA –
• VAN --
• WENDY --
STORM TRACKS OF ANDREA, BARRY, CHANTAL, AND DORIAN
TROPICAL STORM ANDREA ---
FIRST STORM OF 2013 SEASONA Rain Maker
ANDREA: JUNE 5, 2013
ANDREA’S IMPACTS
• The precursor to Andrea dropped nearly 12 inches (300 mm) of rainfall in the Yucatán Peninsula.
• In Cuba, the storm brought flooding, especially in the Pinar del Rio Province, and over 1,000 people fled their homes, mainly along the Cuyaguateje River. .
ANDREA’S IMPACTS
• In Florida, the storm brought heavy rainfall that caused localized flooding and five tornadoes that downed power lines and trees and caused significant roof damage.
• As Andrea died, heavy rains occurred in the Eastern United States and Atlantic Canada, causing flooding in Nova Scotia.
• .
TROPICAL STORM BARRY ---
SECOND STORM OF 2013 SEASONA Rain Maker and Power Disupter
BARRY: JUNE 19, 2013
BARRY’S IMPACTS
• In the Mexican state of Yucatan, wind gusted up to 48 mph (77 km/h) and heavy rains downed trees and power lines; more than 26,000 residents lost power after lightning struck a nearby power station and caused a fire.
• El Salvador experienced flooding.
BARRY’S IMPACTS
• Heavy rains in Honduras triggered flooding that damaged 60 homes and affected 300 people.
• In southern Belize, an estimated 10 in (250 mm) of rain fell in 24 hours, causing several rivers to over-top their banks and some to evacuate.]
TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL ---
THIRD STORM OF 2013 SEASONA Rain Maker
TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL: JULY 8, 2013
A tropical storm warning was issued for Puerto Rico, Barbados, Dominica, Saint
Lucia, Martinique, Guadeloupe, and Miami.
July 8th
CHANTAL’S IMPACTS
• Chantal produced heavy rainfall in Hispaniola, forcing thousands to evacuate their homes.
• In the Dominican Republic, flooding from the storm killed one person in Maimon.1]
TROPICAL STORM DORIAN
---FOURTH STORM OF 2013 SEASON
Rain in florida was Most Notable Impact
DORIAN
TROPICAL STORM ERIN ---
FIFTH STORM OF 2013 SEASONA Short Lived Storm With no Notable
Impact
TROPICAL STORM ERIN
TROPICAL STORM FERDNAND ---SIXTH STORM OF 2013 SEASON
Tropical Storm Ferdnand brought heavy rainfall near Veracruz,
killing fourteen
FERDNANDAUGUST 16, 2013
AUGUST 16th REVISED FORECAST OF THE
NATIONAL OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC ADMINISTRATION
FORECAST: STILL AN ABOVE NOMAL SEASON, BUT ONLY 3 TO 5
MAJOR HURRICANES
TROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE ---SEVENTH STORM OF 2013 SEASON
No Notable Impacts
GABRIELLE
ACTUAL STORM TRACKS AS OF
SEPTEMBER 15, 2013
SEPTEMBER 9th “2013 SEASON MAY GO IN THE RECORD BOOKS AS A “DUD””
REASONS FOR A SLOWLY DEVELOPING SEASON
REASONS FOR A SLOWLY DEVELOPING SEASON
• "A large area of high pressure over the central Atlantic has been very strong and very good at driving dry air southward into the tropics into September."
• Generally it is easier for tropical storms to form and tropical storms to streng-then into hurricanes when an un-obstructed supply of moisture available
REASONS FOR A SLOWLY DEVELOPING SEASON
• Frequent surges of wind shear [disruptive winds at mid-levels of the atmosphere] have occurred during the 2013 season.
• Wind shear tends to disrupt the circulation around a developing system, shearing off the top of the system or causing it to be very lop-sided.
TROPICAL STORM HUMBERTO ---EIGHTH STORM OF 2013 SEASON
Became Season’s 1st Hurricane
DISSIPATED QUICKLY DUE TO VERTICAL SHEAR IN ATMOSPHERE
HUMBERTO: SEPTEMBER 9-11, 2013
TROPICAL STORM INGRID ---
NINTH STORM OF 2013 SEASONBecame Season’s 2nd Hurricane
September 13
A RAINMAKER IN MEXICO THAT
CAUSED DEATHS
INGRID: NEADED FOR MEXICO SEPTEMBER 13, 2013
TROPICAL STORM JERRY ---
TENTH STORM OF 2013 SEASON
September 30
DIED BEFORE IT COULD DO ANYTHING
TROPICAL STORM KAREN ---
ELVENTH STORM OF 2013 SEASON
October 3
EXPECTED TO BE A RAINMAKER
IN THE USA
KAREN: HEADED FOR USA LANDFALL: OCT. 3, 2013
KAREN: FAVORABLE FACTORS: OCT. 3-5, 2013
LOOKING BACK AT 2012
2012’s ACTUAL STORMS EXCEEDED THE FORECAST
FORECAST: 15 NAMED STORMS
WITH 4-8
BECOMING HURRICANES
ACTUAL: TWENTY NAMED STORMS; 10 HURRICANES
NAMED STORMS IN 2012
• ALBERTO - Tropical storm; May 19
• BERYL - Tropical storm; May 27
• CHRIS – Hurricane; June 21
• DEBBY – Tropical storm; June 23
• ERNESTO –Hurricane; Aug 3
• FLORENCE –Tropical storm: Aug 5
• GORDON –Hurricane, August 16
NAMED STORMS FOR 2012
• HELENE –Tropical Storm, Aug. 19
• ISAAC – Hurricane, August 21
• JOYCE –Tropical Storm, Aug. 25
• KIRK –Tropical Storm. Aug. 27
• LESLIE –Hurricane, Sept. 5
• MICHAEL –Hurricane, Sept. 5
• NADINE – Hurricane, Sept. 12
NAMED STORMS IN 2012
• OSCAR – Tropical Storm; Oct. 4
• PATTY – Tropical Storm; Oct. 11
• RAFAEL – Hurricane; October 12
• SANDY– A Super Hurricane; October 22
• TONY – Tropical Storm; Oct. 24
SANDY: A $300 BILLION STORM; OCTOBER 24, 2012
Sandy, 2012’s ninth hurricane, became a huge storm with wind and rain bands reaching out 500 km or more from the
storm center, producing 15-50 cm of rain and flooding in Jamaica, Bermuda, Haiti, Dominican Republic, Cuba, New Jersey,
and New York
CAT I HURRICANE SANDY: OCTOBER 24
SUPER STORM SANDY: OCT. 29-30, 2012
SANDY: RAIN IN HAITI
SANDY: RAIN IN CUBA
NEW JERSEY: ATLANTIC CITY UNDER WATER
NEW JERSEY: OCEAN FRONT FLOODING
NEW JERSEY: STREETS FLOODED
FLOODING IN BROOKLYN, NY
$360 MILLION STORM SURGE, NEW HAVEN, CT: OCT. 30