Carnegie Endowment for Internat ional Peace | 1
2016 FALL/WINTERCarnegie Endowment for International Peace
ACADEMIC CATALOG
The Carnegie Endowment for International Peace is a unique global network of policy research centers in Russia, China, Europe, the Middle East, India, and the United States. Our mission, dating back more than a century, is to advance the cause of peace through analysis and development of fresh policy ideas and direct engage-ment and collaboration with decisionmakers in government, business, and civil soci-ety. Working together, our centers bring the inestimable benefit of multiple national viewpoints to bilateral, regional, and global issues.
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace1779 Massachusetts Avenue NWWashington, DC 20036P +1 202 483 7600F +1 202 483 [email protected]
Contents
Asia 5
Democracy and Rule of Law 11
Energy and Climate 15
Europe 19
Middle East 23
Nuclear Policy 29
Russia and Eurasia 33
South Asia 37
Ordering Information 41
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Carnegie Endowment for Internat ional Peace | 5
Asia
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Asia has already risen by most hard-power measures. But without an under-standing of the downsides of Asia’s rise, the conventional narrative is incomplete, misleading, and inaccurate.
Chung Min Lee explores the fundamental dichotomy that defines contempo-rary Asia. While the region has been an unparalleled economic success, it is also home to some of the world’s most dangerous, diverse, and divisive challenges. Contrary to prevailing wisdom, he says, Asia’s rise doesn’t mean the demise of the West.
CHUNG MIN LEE is a professor of international relations at the Graduate School of International Studies at Yonsei University in Seoul, South Korea, and a nonresident senior associate in Carnegie’s Asia Program. He works on security issues in Northeast Asia, including strategic developments on the Korean peninsula.
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Fault Lines in a Rising Asia CHUNG MIN LEE 2016
“Is Asia ready for the Asian century? Chung Min Lee’s thought-provoking new book raises serious questions about whether Asia’s fragile political structures and fraught geopolitics can sustain global leadership.” —Simon Long, Banyan columnist, Economist
i n a
Chung Min Lee
ASIA HAS ALREADY RISEN by most hard-power measures. But without an understanding of the downsides of Asia’s rise, the conventional narrative is incomplete, misleading, and inaccurate. Chung Min Lee explores the fundamental dichotomy that definescontemporary Asia. While the region has been an unparalleled economic success, it is also home to some of the world’s most dangerous, diverse, and divisive challenges. Contrary to prevailing wisdom, he says, Asia’s rise doesn’t mean the demise of the West.
“Is Asia ready for the Asian century? Chung Min Lee's thought-provoking new book raises serious questions about whether Asia’s fragile political structures and fraught geopolitics can sustain global leadership. An important corrective to current jeremiads in America about its own decline and the remorseless rise of the East.”
—Simon Long, Banyan columnist, Economist
“Chung Min Lee—with clarity and tremendous skill—illustrates the political and military challenges that the rise of Asia has brought upon the region.”
—Kiichi Fujiwara, University of Tokyo
CHUNG MIN LEE is a professor of international relations at the Graduate School of International Studies at Yonsei University in Seoul, South Korea, and a nonresident senior associate at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.
FAULT LINES RISING ASIAin a
LE
E
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Carnegie Endowment for Internat ional Peace | 7
Alastair Iain Johnston and Mingming Shen, editors
IN AMERICAN AND CHINESE VIEWS OF THE OTHER
PERCEPTION
MISPERCEPTION
ASIA
Conflict and Cooperation in the Asia-Pacific Region: A Strategic Net Assessment
MICHAEL D. SWAINE NICHOLAS EBERSTADT ET AL. 2015
The Asia-Pacific region is undergoing enormous change, fueled by high levels of economic growth and deep-ening levels of integration. These and other forces are generating a shift in the distribution of economic, political, and military power across the region. This changing security environment poses a major challenge for the United States, the historically dominant power in maritime Asia. Efforts to enhance regional cooperation, reassure allies, and deter and shape potentially de- stabilizing behavior are demanding a more complex mixture of U.S. skills and understanding. An array of forces will drive both cooperation and con-flict across the Asia-Pacific region.
FREE
Download the reportCarnegieEndowment.org/files/ net_assessment_2.pdf
Perception and Misperception in American and Chinese Views of the OtherEDITED BY
ALASTAIR IAIN JOHN-STON MINGMING SHEN2015
The underlying beliefs that people in the United States and China hold to-ward each other in the security realm are likely to influence, directly or in-directly, each side’s foreign policy with regard to the bilateral relationship. In-depth analyses of elite and public opinion survey data from the United States and China on a wide range of security issues provide nuanced and far-reaching insights into the poten-tial effects of these attitudes on the U.S.-China relationship.
FREE
Download the reportCarnegieEndowment.org/files/ SecurityPerceptions_final1.pdf
Hardcover $49.95 978-0-87003-312-4
Ebook $9.99 AND UP
978-0-87003-313-1
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INTERACTIVE
Charting the Post–Cold War U.S.-Japan Alliance
Since the Cold War’s end, the United States and Japan have tried to give new purpose to their alliance by expanding cooperation while managing economic tensions—with mixed results.
This interactive resource allows users to explore the modern evolution of the U.S.-Japan alliance across several policy categories, including foreign policy, science and technology, security, economics, development, and global commons, as well as health and environmental initiatives.
Explore the interactiveCarnegieEndowment.org/publications/interactive/us-japan-initiatives/
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U.S.-China Security Perceptions Survey: Findings and Implications
MICHAEL D. SWAINERACHEL ESPLIN ODELLLUO YUANLIU XIANGDONG 2013
Public and elite attitudes in the United States and especially China are exerting a growing influence on the bilateral security relationship. The U.S.-China Security Perceptions Project analyzes the content of these attitudes through original surveys and workshops conducted in both countries. The project’s findings have implications for policymakers seeking to reduce the likelihood of future bilateral conflicts.
FREE
Download the reportCarnegieEndowment.org/files/us_china_security_perceptions_report.pdf
Managing China’s Petcoke Problem WANG TAO2015
FREE
Download the paperCarnegieEndowment.org/files/petcoke.pdf
China’s Debt Dilemma: Deleveraging While Generating Growth YUKON HUANG CANYON BOSLER 2014
FREE
Download the paperCarnegieEndowment.org/files/china_ debt_dilemma.pdf
What Myanmar Means for the U.S.-Japan Alliance JAMES L. SCHOFF 2014
FREE
Download the paperCarnegieEndowment.org/files/ myanmar_us_japan.pdf
SEE ALSO
Balancing Without Containment: An American Strategy for Managing China
ASHLEY J. TELLIS 2014
China is poised to become a major strategic rival to the United States. Whether or not Beijing intends to challenge Washington’s primacy, its economic boom and growing national ambitions make competition inevi-table. And as China rises, American power will diminish in relative terms, threatening the foundations of the U.S.-backed global order that has engendered unprecedented prosper-ity worldwide. To avoid this costly outcome, Washington needs a novel strategy to balance China without containing it.
FREE
Download the reportCarnegieEndowment.org/files/balancing_without_containment.pdf
Carnegie Endowment for Internat ional Peace | 9
BEIJING
Chen QiResident Scholar
Matt FerchenResident Scholar @MattFerchen
Paul Haenle Director, Carnegie–Tsinghua Center for Global Policy @PaulHaenle
Shi HanResident Scholar
Pang Xun Resident Scholar
Michael PettisNonresident Senior Associate
Shi ZhiqinResident Scholar
Sun XuefengResident Scholar
Tang XiaoyangDeputy Director, Carnegie–Tsinghua Center for Global Policy, and Resident Scholar
Wang TaoNonresident Scholar @taowangcarnegie
Yan Xuetong President, Carnegie–Tsinghua Management Board
Zhang ChuanjieResident Scholar
Zhang LihuaResident Scholar
Zhao KejinResident Scholar
Tong ZhaoAssociate @zhaot2005
CHICAGO
Evan A. FeigenbaumNonresident Senior Associate @EvanFeigenbaum
KUALA LUMPUR
Muthiah AlagappaNonresident Senior Associate
NEW YORK
John L. HoldenNonresident Senior Associate
PARIS
François GodementNonresident Senior Associate
ASIA EXPERTS
Visit CarnegieEndowment.org for a complete list of research and analysis by Carnegie’s Asia experts, including:
Carnegie Endowment for Internat ional Peace | 9
SEOUL
Chung Min LeeNonresident Senior Associate
WASHINGTON
Yukon HuangSenior Associate
Li BinSenior Associate
Evan S. Medeiros Nonresident Senior Associate
Vikram Nehru Senior Associate and Bakrie Chair inSoutheast Asian Studies @vikramnehru
Douglas H. Paal Vice President for Studies
James L. SchoffSenior Associate @SchoffJ
Michael D. Swaine Senior Associate
ASIA
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ASIA
Carnegie Endowment for Internat ional Peace | 1 1
Democracy and Rule of Law
ASIA
12 | CarnegieEndowment .org
Improving Development Aid Design and Evaluation: Plan for Sailboats, Not Trains
RACHEL KLEINFELD2015
The development field increasingly looks to sophisticated metrics to measure impact. Simultaneously, practitioners are recognizing that most development programs must engage with politics and policy. Unfortunately, the measurement techniques gaining popularity are those least able to determine how to implement political reforms. Effective reform efforts require planning for and measuring change that is nonlin-ear and nonincremental.
FREE
Download the reportCarnegieEndowment.org/files/ devt_design_implementation.pdf
Thieves of State: Why Corruption Threatens Global SecuritySARAH CHAYES 2015
Every day a new blaze seems to ignite: the bloody implosion of Iraq and Syria; the East-West standoff in Ukraine; abducted schoolgirls in northern Nigeria. Is there some thread tying these frightening inter-national security crises together? In a riveting account that weaves history with fast-moving reportage and insid-er accounts from the Afghanistan war, Sarah Chayes identifies the unexpect-ed link: corruption.
Buy the bookPaperback $16.95 978-0-39335-228-3
Hardcover $26.95 978-0-39323-946-1
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PUBLISHED BY
Rachel Kleinfeld
Plan for Sailboats, Not Trains
IMPROVING DEVELOPMENT AID DESIGN AND EVALUATION
The Puzzle of Non-Western Democracy
RICHARD YOUNGS2015
Calls for different models of democ-racy are becoming more prominent and widespread. The future of global politics will depend greatly on wheth-er and how democracy can be made more effective, participative, and accountable. Many politicians, diplo-mats, and experts today argue in favor of non-Western models of democra-cy. Yet it remains unclear what such models should look like. It is more useful to think in terms of specific areas of democratic variation that can encourage democratic renewal—out-side, but also within, the West.
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DEMOCRACY AND RULE OF LAW
MADRID
Richard Youngs Senior Associate @YoungsRichard
WASHINGTON
Thomas Carothers Vice President for Studies
Sarah Chayes Senior Associate
Rachel Kleinfeld Senior Associate @RachelKleinfeld
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DEMOCRACY AND RULE OF LAW EXPERTS
Visit CarnegieEndowment.org for a complete list of research and analysis by Carnegie’s democracy and rule of law experts, including:
The Closing Space Challenge: How Are Funders Responding? THOMAS CAROTHERS 2015
FREE
Download the paperCarnegieEndowment.org/files/CP_258_Carothers_Closing_Space_Final.pdf
The Complexities of Global Protests THOMAS CAROTHERS RICHARD YOUNGS2015
FREE
Download the paperCarnegieEndowment.org/files/CP_257_Youngs-Carothers-Global_Protests_final.pdf
The Oil Curse: A Remedial Role for the Oil Industry SARAH PECK SARAH CHAYES 2015
FREE
Download the paperCarnegieEndowment.org/files/CP_250_Peck_Chayes_Oil_Curse_Final.pdf
Hard Aid: Foreign Aid in the Pursuit of Short-Term Security and Political Goals NATHANIEL MYERS 2015
FREE
Download the paperCarnegieEndowment.org/files/ CP_252_HardAid_Myers_final.pdf
The New Global Marketplace of Political Change THOMAS CAROTHERS OREN SAMET-MARRAM2015
FREE
Download the paperCarnegieEndowment.org/files/global_ marketplace.pdf
Governing Lagos: Unlocking the Politics of Reform DIANE DE GRAMONT 2015
FREE
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SEE ALSO
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Carnegie Endowment for Internat ional Peace | 15
Energy and Climate
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Know Your Oil: Creating a Global Oil-Climate IndexDEBORAH GORDON ADAM BRANDT JOULE BERGERSON JONATHAN KOOMEY 2015
Oil is changing. Conventional oil resources are dwindling as tight oil, oil sands, heavy oils, and others emerge. Technological advances mean that these unconventional hydrocarbon deposits in once-unreachable areas are now viable resources. Meanwhile, scientific evidence is mounting that climate change is occurring, but the climate impacts of these new oils are not well understood. Carnegie’s Energy and Climate Program, Stanford University, and the University of Calgary have developed a first-of-its-kind Oil-Climate Index (OCI) to compare these resources.
DEBORAH GORDON is director of Carnegie’s Energy and Climate Program, where her research focuses on oil and climate change issues in North America and globally.
ADAM BRANDT is an assistant professor in the Department of Energy Resources Engineering at Stanford University.
JOULE BERGERSON is an assistant professor in the Chemical and Petroleum Engineering Department and the Center for Environmental Engineering Research and Education in the Schulich School of Engineering at the University of Calgary.
JONATHAN KOOMEY is a research fellow at the Steyer-Taylor Center for Energy Policy and Finance at Stanford University.
FREE
Download the reportCarnegieEndowment.org/files/know_your_oil.pdf
ENERGY AND CLIMATE
BEIJING
Wang Tao Nonresident Scholar @taowangcarnegie
WASHINGTON
David BurwellNonresident Senior Associate
Deborah Gordon Director @DxGordon
David Livingston Associate @WolfLivingston
Jessica T. Mathews Distinguished Fellow
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ENERGY AND CLIMATE EXPERTS
Visit CarnegieEndowment.org for a complete list of research and analysis by Carnegie’s energy and climate experts, including:The G7 Climate Mandate and
the Tragedy of Horizons DAVID LIVINGSTON2016
FREE
Download the paperCarnegieEndowment.org/files/ CP_263_Livingston_G7_Final.pdf
Managing China’s Petcoke Problem WANG TAO2015
FREE
Download the paperCarnegieEndowment.org/files/petcoke.pdf
The Politics of Plenty: Balancing Climate and Energy Security DAVID BURWELL2013
FREE
Download the paperCarnegieEndowment.org/files/ politics_of_plenty.pdf
SEE ALSO
INTERACTIVE
Assessing Global Oils: The Oil-Climate Index
The Oil-Climate Index (OCI) was developed to alert public and privatestakeholders to the diversifying array of oils’ climate impacts fromvarious perspectives, with an eye toward informing investment,development, operations, and gover-nance of the oil supply chain.The index provides new knowledge and indicators that stakeholderscan take into account to make more informed, strategic, and durabledecisions throughout the oil sector.
The OCI estimates and compares oils’ total life-cycle GHG emissions that stem from their upstream extraction, midstream refining, and downstream end use. Oils that are in production, as well as prospective resources, can be modeled using the OCI.
Explore the interactiveOCI.CarnegieEndowment.org
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Carnegie Endowment for Internat ional Peace | 19
Europe
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Cybertechnologies are rapidly changing the international landscape, but leaders in government, business, and elsewhere are just beginning to understand the ramifications, both good and bad, of an interconnected digital world. Weak international governance of cyberspace stands in stark contrast to the acceler-ating pace of challenges. To shape the regimes that govern cyberspace to the advantage of generations to come, the United States and the European Union should forge a joint policy vision.
SINAN ÜLGEN is a visiting scholar at Carnegie Europe in Brussels, where his research focuses on the implications of Turkish foreign policy for Europe and the United States, nuclear policy, and the security and economic aspects of the transatlantic relations. He is a founding partner of Istanbul Economics, a Turk-ish consulting firm that specializes in public and regulatory affairs, and chairman of the Center for Economics and Foreign Policy Studies, an independent think tank in Istanbul.
FREE
Download the reportCarnegieEndowment.org/files/Sinan_Cyber_Final.pdf
Governing Cyberspace: A Road Map for Transatlantic Leadership SINAN ÜLGEN2016
Sinan Ülgen
A Road Map for Transatlantic Leadership
CarnegieEurope.eu
Ülgen GOVERNING CYBERSPACE
Reviving the OSCE: European Security and the Ukraine Crisis STEFAN LEHNE 2015
FREE
Download the paperCarnegieEndowment.org/files/ CP_249_Lehne_OSCE.pdf
The Politics of 2 Percent: NATO and the Security Vacuum in Europe JAN TECHAU 2015
FREE
Download the paperCarnegieEndowment.org/files/ CP_252_Techau_NATO_Final.pdf
Are Prime Ministers Taking Over EU Foreign Policy? STEFAN LEHNE 2015
FREE
Download the paperCarnegieEndowment.org/files/ prime_min_for_policy.pdf
EUROPE
BERLINJudy Dempsey Nonresident Senior Associate and Editor in Chief, Strategic Europe @Judy_Dempsey
BRUSSELS Jan Techau Director, Carnegie Europe @jan_techau
Marc Pierini Visiting Scholar @MarcPierini1
Pierre Vimont Senior Associate
ISTANBUL Sinan Ülgen Visiting Scholar @sinanulgen1
LISBON
Bruno Maçães Nonresident Associate @MacaesBruno
MADRIDKristina Kausch Nonresident Associate @kristinakausch
Richard Youngs Senior Associate @YoungsRichard
EUROPE EXPERTS
Visit CarnegieEndowment.org for a complete list of research and analysis by Carnegie’s Europe experts, including:
SEE ALSO
25
OXFORDGwendolyn Sasse Nonresident Associate @GwendolynSasse
VIENNAStefan Lehne Visiting Scholar @StefanLehne
WASHINGTONCornelius Adebahr Associate
Thomas Carothers Vice President for Studies
22 | CarnegieEndowment .org
EUROPE
Carnegie Endowment for Internat ional Peace | 23
MiddleEast
24 | CarnegieEndowment .org
Buy the book
Hardcover $26.99 978-1-61039-609-7
Also available as an ebook.
Less than twenty-four months after the hope-filled Arab uprising, the popular movement had morphed into a dystopia of resurgent dictators, failed states, and civil wars. Egypt’s epochal transition to democracy ended in a violent military coup. Yemen and Libya collapsed into civil war, while Bahrain erupt-ed in smothering sectarian repression. Syria proved the greatest victim of all, ripped apart by internationally fueled insurgencies and an externally supported, bloody-minded regime. Amidst the chaos, a virulently militant group declared an Islamic State, seizing vast territories and inspiring terrorism across the globe. What happened?
The New Arab Wars is a profound illumination of the causes of this nightmare. It details the costs of the poor choices made by regional actors, delivers a scathing analysis of Western misreadings of the conflict, and condemns international in-terference that has stoked the violence. Informed by commentators and analysts from the Arab world, Marc Lynch’s narrative of a vital region’s collapse is both wildly dramatic and likely to prove definitive. Most important, he shows that the region’s upheavals have only just begun—and that the hopes of Arab regimes and Western policy makers to retreat to old habits of authoritarian stability are doomed to fail.
MARC LYNCH is a nonresident senior associate in Carnegie’s Middle East Program where his work focuses on the politics of the Arab world. He is also a professor of political science at the George Washington University, where he recently completed a six-year term as director of the Institute for Middle East Studies. He is the director of the Project on Middle East Political Science, an international network of scholars, and a contributing editor of the Washington Post’s Monkey Cage blog.
The New Arab Wars: Uprisings and Anarchy in the Middle East MARC LYNCH2016
PUBLISHED BY
Carnegie Endowment for Internat ional Peace | 25
Sectarian Politics in the Gulf: From the Iraq War to the Arab Uprisings
FREDERIC WEHREY 2013
Beginning with the 2003 invasion of Iraq and concluding with the after-math of the 2011 Arab uprisings, Frederic Wehrey investigates the roots of the Shia-Sunni divide now dominating the Persian Gulf ’s polit-ical landscape. Focusing on the three Gulf states affected most by sectarian tensions—Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, and Kuwait—Wehrey identifies the factors that have exacerbated or tempered sect- arianism, including domestic political institutions, the media, clerical estab-lishments, and the contagion effect of external regional events, such as the Iraq war, the 2006 Lebanon conflict, the Arab uprisings, and Syria’s civil war.
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Hardcover $55.00 978-0-23116-512-9
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The Second Arab Awakening and the Battle for Pluralism
MARWAN MUASHER 2014
Marwan Muasher examines the tumultuous recent events in the Arab region in the context of long-term historical pressure to build societies that will respond to Arab citizens’ longing for freedom and opportunity. Only through the painstaking process of constructing an Arab world defined by pluralism and tolerance can this dream be realized.
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Hardcover $30.00 978-0-30018-639-0
Paperback $20.00 978-0-30021-263-1
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MIDDLE EAST
PUBLISHED BY
Perilous Desert: Insecurity in the SaharaEDITED BY
FREDERIC WEHREY ANOUAR BOUKHARS 2013
The geopolitical significance of the Sahara is becoming painfully clear. Isla-mist militant groups and transnational criminal networks are operating in the region’s most fragile states, exploiting widespread corruption, weak govern-ment capacity, crushing poverty, and entrenched social and ethnic tensions. The unrest spills over borders and ag-gravates protracted regional crises.
This insecurity raises urgent concerns for the broader Sahara and for the West. Perilous Desert details the sources of instability and what can be done to minimize the threat of simmering conflicts.
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PUBLISHED BY
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The Sunni Predicament in Iraq RENAD MANSOUR2016
FREE
Download the paperCarnegieEndowment.org/files/CMEC_59_Mansour_Sunni_Final.pdf
The Kingdom and the Caliphate: Duel of the Islamic States COLE BUNZEL 2016
FREE
Download the paperCarnegieEndowment.org/files/ CP_265_Bunzel_Islamic_States_Final.pdf
Mauritania’s Precarious Stability and Islamist Undercurrent ANOUAR BOUKHARS2016
FREE
Download the paperCarnegieEndowment.org/files/ CEIP_CP266_Boukhars_Final.pdf
Between Peril and Promise: A New Framework for Partnership with Tunisia MARWAN MUASHER MARC PIERINI ALEXANDER DJERASSI2016FREE
Download the paperCarnegieEndowment.org/files/ CP_269_Tunisia.pdf
Great Expectations in Tunisia MAHA YAHYA2016
FREE
Download the paperCarnegieEndowment.org/files/CMEC_60_Yahya_Tunisia_Final.pdf
Dilemmas of Reform: Policing in Arab Transitions YEZID SAYIGH2016
FREE
Download the paperCarnegieEndowment.org/files/ CEIP_CMEC61_Sayigh_Final.pdf
SEE ALSO
Palestine in Flux: From Search for State to Search for Tactics NATHAN BROWNDANIEL NERENBERG2016
FREE
Download the paperCarnegieEndowment.org/files/CEIP_CP264_Brown-Nerenberg_Final.pdf
Shia-Centric State Building and Sunni Rejection in Post-2003 Iraq FANAR HADDAD2016
FREE
Download the paperCarnegieEndowment.org/files/CP261_Haddad_Shia_Final.pdf
Sectarian Twitter Wars: Sunni- Shia Conflict and Cooperation in the Digital Age ALEXANDRA SIEGEL 2015
FREE
Download the paperCarnegieEndowment.org/files/CP_262_Siegel_Sectarian_Twitter_Wars_.pdf
Carnegie Endowment for Internat ional Peace | 27
MIDDLE EAST
Carnegie Endowment for Internat ional Peace | 27
MIDDLE EAST EXPERTS
Visit CarnegieEndowment.org for a complete list of research and analysis by Carnegie’s Middle East experts, including:
LONDON
Carole Nakhle Nonresident Scholar
WASHINGTON
Joseph Bahout Visiting Scholar @jobahout
Anouar Boukhars Nonresident Scholar @aboukhars01
Nathan J. Brown Nonresident Senior Associate
Perry Cammack Associate @perrycammack
Alexander Djerassi Nonresident Associate
Michele Dunne Director and Senior Associate @MicheleDDunne
Marc Lynch Nonresident Senior Associate
Karim Sadjadpour Senior Associate @ksadjadpour
Frederic Wehrey Senior Associate @FWehrey
Katherine Wilkens Nonresident Associate
AMMAN
Marwan Muasher Vice President for Studies @MarwanMuasher
BEIRUT
Georges Fahmi Nonresident Scholar @GeorgesFahmi
Dalia Ghanem-Yazbeck Visiting Scholar
Kheder Khaddour Nonresident Scholar
Raphaël Lefèvre Nonresident Scholar @RaphLefevre
Renad Mansour El-Erian Fellow @renadmansour
Farea al-Muslimi Visiting Scholar @almuslimi
Yezid Sayigh Senior Associate
Maha Yahya Acting Director, Carnegie Middle East Center and Senior Associate @mahamyahya
CAIRO
Amr Adly Nonresident Scholar
Refugees and the Making of an Arab Regional Disorder MAHA YAHYA2015
FREE
Download the paperCarnegieEndowment.org/files/ CMEC57_Yahya_final.pdf
Egypt’s Escalating Islamist Insurgency MOKHTAR AWAD MOSTAFA HASHEM2015
FREE
Download the paperCarnegieEndowment.org/files/CMEC_ 58_Egypt_Awad_Hashem_final.pdf
Market for Jihad: Radicalization in TunisiaGEORGES FAHMI HAMZA MEDDEB2015
FREE
Download the paperCarnegieEndowment.org/files/CMEC_55_ FahmiMeddeb_Tunisia_final_oct.pdf
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Carnegie Endowment for Internat ional Peace | 29
Nuclear Policy
30 | CarnegieEndowment .org
Wagging the Plutonium Dog: Japanese Domestic Politics and Its International Security Implications
JAMES M. ACTON 2015
Japan is the only non-nuclear- weapon state with a program to extract plutonium from the spent fuel produced in nuclear reactors—a process termed reprocessing—to fabricate more fuel. Because plutoni-um can be used directly in the man-ufacturing of nuclear weapons, Japan has, in keeping with internationally recognized best practice, pledged not to produce more plutonium than it can consume. Serious questions are emerging, however, about whether it can uphold this commitment.
FREE
Download the report CarnegieEndowment.org/files/ Plutonium_Dog_final.pdf
An Unnoticed Crisis: The End of History for Nuclear Arms Control? ALEXEI ARBATOV 2015
FREE
Download the paper CarnegieEndowment.org/files/ CP_Arbatov2015_n_web_Eng.pdf
Brazil’s Nuclear Kaleidoscope: An Evolving IdentityTOGZHAN KASSENOVA2014
FREE
Download the report CarnegieEndowment.org/files/brazil_ nuclear_kaleidoscope_lo_res.pdf
Silver Bullet? Asking the Right Questions About Conventional Prompt Global Strike JAMES M. ACTON2013
FREE
Download the reportCarnegieEndowment.org/files/cpgs.pdf
SEE ALSO
Japanese Domestic Politics and Its International Security Implications
James M. Acton
WAGGINGTHEPLUTONIUMDOG
94 Pu
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Turkey’s Nuclear FutureEDITED BY
GEORGE PERKOVICH SINAN ÜLGEN 2015
Turkey is a rising economic and political force with the ability to affect dynamics in the greater Middle East, the Caucasus, and Central Asia. To meet its rising energy needs, the coun-try—already an important actor in the international nuclear order—plans to establish nuclear power plants on its territory. Turkey’s location in a nuclear-ized environment fraught with security dilemmas has led to speculation that Turkish leaders could someday move beyond civilian use and begin to develop nuclear weapons.
Buy the book Paperback $19.95 978-0-87003-415-2
Hardcover $49.95 978-0-87003-416-9
Ebook $9.99 AND UP 978-0-87003-417-6Available on Amazon and iTunes.
urkey, with a robust modern economy and growing energy needs, is pursuing a switch to nuclear power. But that shift is occurring in an environment fraught with security challenges: Turkey borders Iraq, Syria, and Iran—all states with nuclear or WMD ambitions or capabilities. As a NATO member, Turkey also hosts U.S. nuclear bombs on its territory, although some question the durability of this relationship. This dynamic has naturally led to speculation that Turkish leaders might someday consider moving beyond a civilian course to develop nuclear weapons. Yet there has been remarkably little informed analysis and debate on Turkey’s nuclear future, either within the country or in broader international society.
This volume explores the current status and trajectory of Turkey’s nuclear program, adding historical perspective, analytical rigor, and strategic insight.
GEORGE PERKOVICH is vice president for studies at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. SINAN ÜLGEN is a visiting scholar at Carnegie Europe in Brussels, a founding partner of Istanbul Economics, and chairman of the Center for Economics and Foreign Policy Studies in Istanbul.
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Carnegie Endowment for Internat ional Peace | 31
An Unnoticed Crisis: The End of History for Nuclear Arms Control? ALEXEI ARBATOV 2015
FREE
Download the paper CarnegieEndowment.org/files/ CP_Arbatov2015_n_web_Eng.pdf
Brazil’s Nuclear Kaleidoscope: An Evolving IdentityTOGZHAN KASSENOVA2014
FREE
Download the report CarnegieEndowment.org/files/brazil_ nuclear_kaleidoscope_lo_res.pdf
Silver Bullet? Asking the Right Questions About Conventional Prompt Global Strike JAMES M. ACTON2013
FREE
Download the reportCarnegieEndowment.org/files/cpgs.pdf
NUCLEAR POLICY
BEIJING
Tong Zhao Associate @zhaot2005
BERLIN
Mark Hibbs Senior Associate @MarkHibbsCEIP
BIRMINGHAM
Nicholas D. Wright Nonresident Associate
BRUSSELS
Pierre Goldschmidt Nonresident Senior Associate
GENEVA
Shahram Chubin Nonresident Senior Associate
ISTANBUL
Sinan Ülgen Visiting Scholar
LONDON
Paul Schulte Nonresident Senior Associate
MOSCOW
Alexey Arbatov Scholar in Residence
Vladimir Dvorkin Distinguished Military Fellow
Petr Topychkanov Associate @PTopych
TEL AVIV
Ariel (Eli) Levite Nonresident Senior Associate
TOKYO
Tomoko Kurokawa Nonresident Scholar
WASHINGTON
James M. Acton Co-Director, Nuclear Policy Program @james_acton32
Taylor P. Brooks Herbert Scoville Jr. Peace Fellow
Toby Dalton Co-Director, Nuclear Policy Program @toby_dalton
William Norris Nonresident Associate
Carnegie Endowment for Internat ional Peace | 31
NUCLEAR POLICY EXPERTS
Visit CarnegieEndowment.org for a complete list of research and analysis by Carnegie’s nuclear policy experts, including:
Togzhan Kassenova Associate @tkassenova
Li Bin Senior Associate
George Perkovich Vice President for Studies @PerkovichG
Tristan Volpe Stanton Fellow and Associate @teeandersvolpe
32 | CarnegieEndowment .org
Carnegie Endowment for Internat ional Peace | 33
Russia and Eurasia
34 | CarnegieEndowment .org
Russian Elite Opinion After Crimea DENIS VOLKOV 2016
FREE
Download the paperCarnegieEndowment.org/files/CP_ Volkov_WEB_Eng.pdf
The Resurgence of a Market Economy in North Korea ANDREI LANKOV2016
FREE
Download the paperCarnegieEndowment.org/files/CP_ Lankov_Eng_web_final.pdf
U.S. Policy Toward Central Asia 3.0EUGENE RUMERRICHARD SOKOLSKYPAUL STRONSKI2016
FREE
Download the paperCarnegieEndowment.org/files/ CP_259_Central_Asia_Final.pdf
SEE ALSO
Conflict in Ukraine: The Unwinding of the Post-Cold War Order
RAJAN MENON EUGENE RUMER 2015
The current conflict in Ukraine has spawned the most serious crisis between Russia and the West since the end of the Cold War. It has un-dermined European security, raised questions about NATO’s future, and put an end to one of the most ambi-tious projects of U.S. foreign policy—building a partnership with Russia. It also threatens to undermine U.S. diplomatic efforts on issues ranging from terrorism to nuclear proliferation. Each side is betting that political and economic pressure will force the other to blink first. Caught in this danger-ous game of chicken, the West cannot afford to lose sight of the importance of stable relations with Russia.
Buy the book
Hardcover $24.95 978-0-26202-904-9
Also available as an ebook.
Great Catastrophe: Armenians and Turks in the Shadow of Genocide
THOMAS DE WAAL 2015
The destruction of the Armenians of the Ottoman Empire in 1915–1916 was the greatest atrocity of World War I. Thomas de Waal looks at the aftermath and politics of the Armenian Genocide and tells the story of recent efforts by courageous Armenians, Kurds, and Turks to come to terms with the disaster as Turkey enters a new post-Kemalist era. The story of what happened to the Armenians in 1915–1916 is well-known. Here we are told the “history of the history” and the lesser-known story of what happened to Armenians, Kurds, and Turks in the century that followed.
Buy the book
Hardcover $29.95 978-0-19935-069-8
Also available as an ebook.
PUBLISHED BY
PUBLISHED BY
The Rise of Nontraditional Islam in the Urals ALEXEY MALASHENKO ALEXEY STAROSTIN 2015
FREE
Download the paperCarnegieEndowment.org/files/CP_MalashenkoUral_Sept2015_web_Eng.pdf
Russian Ideology After Crimea ANDREI KOLESNIKOV2015
FREE
Download the paperCarnegieEndowment.org/files/ CP_Kolesnikov_Ideology2015_web_Eng.pdf
Understanding the Revitalization of Russian-Iranian RelationsNIKOLAY KOZHANOV 2015
FREE
Download the paperCarnegieEndowment.org/files/ CP_Kozhanov_web_Eng.pdf
RUSSIA AND EURASIA
LONDON
Thomas de Waal Senior Associate @Tom_deWaal
MOSCOW
Alexey Arbatov Scholar in Residence
Alexander Baunov Senior Associate and Editor in Chief, Carnegie.ru @baunov
Vladimir Dvorkin Distinguished Military Fellow
Alexander Gabuev Senior Associate @AlexGabuev
Andrei Kolesnikov Senior Associate
Nikolay Kozhanov Nonresident Scholar
Andrey Movchan Senior Associate Alexey Malashenko Scholar in Residence
Maxim Samorukov Deputy Editor, Carnegie.ru
Petr Topychkanov Associate @PTopych
RUSSIA AND EURASIA EXPERTS
Visit CarnegieEndowment.org for a complete list of research and analysis by Carnegie’s Russia and Eurasia experts, including:
RUSSIA AND EURASIA
35
Dmitri Trenin Director, Carnegie Moscow Center @DmitriTrenin
VILNIUS
Balázs Jarábik Nonresident Scholar @BalazsJarabik
WASHINGTON
Ambassador James F. Collins Senior Associate and Diplomat in Residence
Eugene Rumer Director, Russia and Eurasia Program, and Senior Associate
Richard Sokolsky Senior Associate
Paul Stronski Senior Associate @pstronski
Andrew S. Weiss Vice President for Studies @AndrewSWeiss
36 | CarnegieEndowment .org
Carnegie Endowment for Internat ional Peace | 37
South Asia
38 | CarnegieEndowment .org
The Indian Air Force (IAF) is in crisis. Despite being a world-class combat arm, the IAF’s falling end strength and problematic force structure, combined with its troubled acquisition and development programs, threaten India’s air superiority over its rapidly modernizing rivals, China and Pakistan. Indian air dominance is vital for deterrence stability in southern Asia and for preserving the strategic bal-ance in the wider Indo-Pacific region. Resolving India’s airpower crisis, therefore, should be a priority for New Delhi.
ASHLEY J. TELLIS is a senior associate at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace specializing in international security, defense, and Asian strategic issues. While on assignment to the U.S. Department of State as senior adviser to the under secretary of state for political affairs, he was intimately involved in negotiating the civil nuclear agreement with India.
FREE
Download the report CarnegieEndowment.org/files/Tellis_IAF_final.pdf
Troubles, They Come in Battalions: The Manifold Travails of the Indian Air Force ASHLEY J. TELLIS 2016The Manifold Travails of the Indian A
ir ForceAS
H L E Y J . T E L L I S
TROUBLES, THEY COME IN BATTALIONS
Carnegie Endowment for Internat ional Peace | 39
A M E R I C A N A N D I N D I A N P E R S P E C T I V E S
ASHLEY J. TELLISAND
C. RAJA MOHAN
SOUTH ASIA
Unity in Difference: Overcoming the U.S.-India Divide
ASHLEY J. TELLIS 2015
U.S. President Barack Obama’s return to India in January 2015 carries the hope that Washington and New Delhi may succeed in placing their cooperation on firmer foundations. Achieving this objective will require reconciling American expectations of exchange-based relations with the Indian desire for a no-obligations partnership. This challenge is best handled through a set of complemen-tary policies in Washington and New Delhi that together are most aptly characterized as “unity in difference.”
FREE
Download the report CarnegieEndowment.org/files/ unity_in_difference.pdf
The Strategic Rationale for Deeper U.S.-Indian Economic Ties
ASHLEY J. TELLIS C. RAJA MOHAN 2015
The U.S.-India relationship was often distant during the Cold War, but the partnership is now critical for both countries’ strategic aims. India is important to the U.S. effort to maintain its international primacy, while the United States is essential to India’s attainment of its great power ambitions. Deepened economic inter-course, including one day through a comprehensive U.S.-Indian free-trade agreement, is vital to realizing both countries’ aspirations.
FREE
Download the report CarnegieEndowment.org/files/ US_India_TellisMohan_Final.pdf
Getting India Back on Track: An Action Agenda for Reform EDITED BY
B IBEK DEBROYASHLEY J. TELLIS REECE TREVOR2014
India has fallen far and fast from the runaway growth rates it enjoyed in the first decade of the twenty-first century. In order to reverse this trend, New Delhi must seriously reflect on its policy choices across a wide range of issue areas.
Getting India Back on Track broadly co-incides with the 2014 Indian elections to spur a public debate about the pro-gram that the next government should pursue in order to return the country to a path of high growth. It convenes some of India’s most accomplished an-alysts to recommend policies in every major sector of the Indian economy.
Buy the book Paperback $19.95 978-0-87003-425-1
Hardcover $49.95 978-0-87003-426-8
Ebook $9.99 AND UP 978-0-87003-427-5
Available on Amazon and iTunes.
40 | CarnegieEndowment .org
SOUTH ASIA
SOUTH ASIA EXPERTS
Visit CarnegieEndowment.org for a complete list of research and analysis by Carnegie’s South Asia experts, including:
India as a Leading PowerASHLEY J. TELLIS2016
FREE
Download the paperCarnegieEndowment.org/files/ CP_268_Tellis_India_final1.pdf
Understanding the Indian Voter MILAN VAISHNAV2015
FREE
Download the paper CarnegieEndowment.org/files/ understanding_indian_voter.pdf
Making Waves: Aiding India’s Next-Generation Aircraft CarrierASHLEY J. TELLIS 2015
FREE
Download the paper CarnegieEndowment.org/files/ making_waves.pdf
SEE ALSONEW DELHI
C. Raja Mohan Director, Carnegie India @MohanCRaja
NORMAN, OK
Aqil Shah Nonresident Scholar
PARIS
Gilles Dorronsoro Nonresident Scholar
Frederic Grare Nonresident Senior Associate
Christophe Jaffrelot Nonresident Scholar
WASHINGTON
Sarah Chayes Senior Associate
George Perkovich Vice President for Studies
Ashley J. Tellis Senior Associate
Milan Vaishnav Senior Associate @MilanV
Xiaoping Yang Visiting Scholar
Employing India: Guaranteeing Jobs for the Rural Poor
EDUARDO ZEPEDA ET AL. 2013
India’s rural employment guarantee is a milestone in social policy and employ-ment creation. The Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment Guaran-tee Act was mandated in 2005 to im-plement an ambitious, demand-driven employment-creation program to benefit the rural poor through projects that improve agricultural productivity and alleviate land degradation. Guar-anteeing the right of rural households to 100 days of unskilled manual work, the program’s size sets a worldwide precedent. It has achieved impressive results, but the act continues to pose immense design and management challenges.
FREE
Download the report CarnegieEndowment.org/files/india_ rural_employment.pdf
Carnegie Endowment for Internat ional Peace | 41
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SOUTH ASIA
SOUTH ASIA EXPERTS
Visit CarnegieEndowment.org for a complete list of research and analysis by Carnegie’s South Asia experts, including:
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