Prevent Risks or Manage Consequences? Food Security and
Water Infrastructure Development
Session Lead: Paul Wyrwoll Australian NaEonal University
Food Energy Environment Water (FE2W) Network
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What are your concerns or worries related to the impacts of hydropower & irriga7on development on food security in the Greater Mekong region?
PopulaEon growth
Drought
Price volaElity
Low-‐capacity insEtuEons
Floods
Climate change Soil degradaEon
DeforestaEon Technology
Dietary Change
Crop disease Aquifer degradaEon
PolluEon
PoliEcal instability
Biodiversity loss
Limita7ons of Risk = Likelihood x Consequence
• (Almost certain x Minor) ≈ (Catastrophic x Rare)? • What acEons? How do they interact? • Systems and feedback effects?
The Risks and Op7ons Assessment for Decision-‐Making (ROAD) Process
Summary of the Risks and Options Assessment for Decision-Making (ROAD) Process (Version 0.2) This diagram provides a summary of the ROAD Process currently under development by the Food, Energy, Environment, Water (FE2W) Network (www.fe2wnetwork.org)
DEF
INE
SCO
PE
Consult all Stakeholders � Explore system across Food, Energy, Environment and Water � Recognise dynamic nature of Objectives � Define limits of decision space
ASS
ESS
RIS
KS
& O
PTIO
NS
Assess outcomes across Stakeholders � Deploy quantitative and qualitative tools � Select portfolios of Options � Account for different time-scales � Acknowledge Uncertainties
IMPL
EMEN
T
DEC
ISIO
NS
Undertake piloting approach to implementation � Question assumptions & estimates in Steps 1-7 � Adaptive management � Evaluate across time-scales � Monitor across Stakeholders
Phase Guidelines Key Questions Output Action
Who are the Decision-makers? Who are the Stakeholders? What are their Objectives?
2. Identify Events & Drivers
What are the risks being assessed?
What are the triggers?
What are the consequences?
3. Develop Options
What are the options to control
risks?
What are the options to mitigate consequences? Identify
resources
Identify external factors
6. Risks and Options Assessment
Estimate outcomes from Consequences
& Risks
Identify existing data & information and knowledge gaps
Identify Baselines & Thresholds
Estimate outcomes from
alternative portfolios
Which Stakeholders benefit? Which Stakeholders lose out? Are Decision-maker Objectives met? Are Stakeholders’ Objectives met? What is the change against the Baselines? Are Thresholds breached?
9. Evaluate Outcomes
Do outcomes diverge from
expectations? Are outcomes
negative?
Evaluate outcomes across stakeholders,
decision-maker objectives, baselines
& thresholds
1. Stakeholders & Knowledge
What are the drivers?
4. Define Causal Risk Model
DOCUMENT CAUSAL RISK MODEL & SCOPE
Define linkages & directions of causation
Graphically define a causal risk
model
5. Prepare Tools & Data
What is the strength of knowledge? What is the quality of data & information?
What are the key Uncertainties? What are the key Indicators?
Collate further data & information Estimate Likelihoods
Select tools Prepare assessment criteria
Estimate outcomes
from Options
Develop portfolios of
Options
7. Investment Decisions & Stress Test
Would a different portfolio be selected under alternative assumptions & estimates?
DOCUMENT DECISIONS & RATIONALE DOCUMENT STRESS TEST RESULTS
Select portfolio of Options & Investment decisions
Stress Test the selected portfolio
8. Consult & Revise
Do Stakeholders believe key estimates and assumptions are incorrect?
Do Stakeholders support decisions?
Consult Stakeholders on decisions
Review & revise
decisions Implement decisions in phases
10. Consult & Revise
Re-evaluate causal
model & review
available options
DOCUMENT OUTCOMES UPDATE CAUSAL RISK
MODEL COLLATE & RECORD DATA
& INFORMATION
Step
ROAD Pilot Project in Đơn Dương District, Lâm Đồng Province, Vietnam
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Lâm Đồng Province
The vision of Lâm Đồng PPC: 1. Centre of commercial
agriculture in SE Asia 2. Diversified agricultural
products 3. Improve water planning
and management 4. Green/environmentally
friendly province
Đơn Dương District
Overview of Đơn Dương District • 91,000 people, 61,000 ha • Mountains, highlands and (ferEle) valleys • Agriculture 56% of district’s economy • Average income about twice the naEonal average • High-‐intensity commercial agriculture (vegetables) • Groundwater is main water source for dry season • Water allocaEon trade-‐offs (hydropower vs. ag.) • 2015-‐2016 drought • Rapid growth undermining sustainability…..
What policy op7ons can address the risk of water demand exceeding water supply in the dry season?
ROAD Pilot Workshop, Don Duong July 2016
Many defini7ons of a “risk” • “the possibility of an unfortunate occurrence” • “potenEal for realizaEon of unwanted, negaEve
consequences of an event” • “exposure to a proposiEon (e.g. the occurrence of
a loss) of which one is uncertain” • “consequences of an acEvity and associated
uncertainEes” • “deviaEon from a reference value and associated
uncertainEes” Society for Risk Analysis Glossary
Working defini7on:
“A risk is an event with uncertain consequences”
Poten7al food security risks associated with hydropower and irriga7on development in GM • Blockage of wet season fish migraEon by dam construcEon
• Inflow storage for future hydropower generaEon ê downstream flows to irrigaEon
• Dam construcEon reduces sediment transfer • ………
Mekong, Salween, Irrawaddy, Red
Defini7ons of causal model components
Risk: an event with uncertain consequences Trigger: an event that is the immediate cause of a risk Driver: threat, trend or other risk source causing a trigger to occur Consequence: outcome of a risk affecEng objecEves Control: an acEon that modifies the likelihood or the consequences of a driver or a trigger causing a risk Mi?gant: an acEon that alleviates the aker-‐the-‐event consequences of a risk
Debrief
Open Feedback
• Could you use a version of the ROAD process in your own work?
• Where might there be demand for the ROAD process in the Greater Mekong to address the food security risks of water infrastructure development?
• Who do you know that should learn more about this work?