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Population TheoryA – Demographic Transition
B – Malthusianism
C – Neo-Malthusianism
D – Creative Pressure
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Demographic Transition
1. Concept◦ What is the emographic transition!
". #tages
◦ What are the ma$or stages o% itsoccurrence!
&. 'eographical (ariations
◦ Does the emographic transitionoccurre at the same time anplaces!
AA
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11 Concept
)vervie*◦ A +social moerni,ation o% the reprouction
process /mprove health care an access to %amily planning.
0igher eucational levels especially among *omen. 2conomic gro*th an rising per capita income levels.
3r4ani,ation an gro*ing employment opportunities.
◦ /nvolves moving %rom one e5uili4rium toanother
/nitial e5uili4rium 0igh 4irth an eath rates.
6inal e5uili4rium 7o* 4irth an eath rates.
◦ Theory 4ac8e 4y soli empirical evience.
◦ /nvolves %our phases.
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Concept
2piemiological Transition◦ 6ocuses on changes over time in the
causes o% mortality a9ecting certain
populations 0ealth conitions.
Disease patterns.
◦ :esult in a ecline in eath rates an
an increase o% li%e e;pectancy.
◦ The society goes through a transition%rom communicative iseases to
egenerative iseases.
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Concept
#tages inepiemiological
transition◦ Three ienti<a4le stages
in the transition.
◦ 1= Age o%communicative
iseases.◦ "= Age o% receing
panemics.
◦ &= Age o% egenerativean man-mae
iseases.
Communicative Diseases
Receding Pandemics
Degenerative and Man-made Diseases
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70 years
50 years
30 yearsHigh Fertility
High Mortality
High Fertility
Decreasing Mortality
Low Fertility
Low Mortality
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#urvivorship o% the BritishPopulation 1>th an "?th Centuries11
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Demographic Transition Theory
190018001700
Stage I Stage II Stage IVStage III
Birth Rate
Death Rate
2000
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Demographic
Growth
Population
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Crue Birth :ates Western2urope 1>@1-11
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Crue Death :ates Western2urope 1>@1-11
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#tages in Demographic Transition
Stage I Stage II Stage III Stage IV
High birth rates High birth rates Falling birth rates Low birth rates
No or little FamilyPlanningParents have manychildren because few
surviveMany children are neededto work the landChildren are a sign ofvirilityReligious beliefs andcultural traditionsencourage large families
Family Planning usedA lower infant mortalityratesndustriali!ation means
less need for laborncreased desire formaterial "ossessions andless desire for largefamilies#manci"ation of women
Children as liabilitiesinstead of assets
High death rates Falling death rates Low death rates Low death rates
$isease and "lague %e&g&bubonic' cholera'kwashiorkor(Famine' uncertain foodsu""lies and "oor diet
Poor hygiene' no clean water or sewage dis"osal
m"roved medicinem"roved sanitation and waters su""lym"rovements in food"roduction in terms of
)uality and )uantitym"roved trans"ort to
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6ertility Declines :eal anPro$ecte 1@?-"?@?=11
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33 'eographical (ariations
Develope countries◦ Too8 "@? years %or most evelope economies to go
through their o*n emographic transition %rom 1>@?to "???=.
◦ Population gro*th never surpasse the capacity o%
these economies to accommoate it.
Developing countries
◦ Demographic transition starte in the "?th century The most avance segment a%ter WW/.
The least avance segment a%ter WW//.
◦ (ery %e* have *ent trough the transitory mutation.
◦ Most o% them have a type /// emographic transition.
◦ By the time they reach type /( a huge amount apopulation *ill 4e ae to their populations.
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Beginning o% Demographic Transition
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6ertility Transition in someCountries 1"-"???33
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'eographical (ariations
Will emographic transition occur allaroun the *orl!
◦ Moel 4ase upon the Western e;perience.
◦ 2vience unerline that the process is li8ely.
◦ Pro4lems The 4ase population in the eveloping *orl is
large.
7o* percentages o% population increase *ill result
in large num4ers o% aitional people. 7imite possi4ilities %or immigration 3nli8e 2urope
at the en o% the 1th century an early uring the"?th century=.
:eligious an cultural inuences.
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Malthusianism
1. Concept◦ What are the principles o%
Malthusianism!
". The Malthusian Crisis◦ What oes a Malthusian crisis
involves!
&. Contemporary /ssues
BB
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11 Concept
Conte;t◦ Thomas Malthus 1>-1E&F= in his
4oo8 +2ssays on the Principle o%Population 1>E=.
◦ :elationships 4et*een population an
%oo resources area uner cultivation=.◦ 'ro*th o% availa4le resources is linear
*hile population gro*th is o%ten non-linear e;ponential=.
◦ Too8 notice o% %amines in the Mile
Ages especially in the early 1Fth
century 1&1=.
◦ 6rom the ata he gathere population*as ou4ling every "@ years.
◦ )ver a centuryGs time population*oul rise 4y a %actor o% 1 *hile %oo
rose 4y a %actor o% F.
Demographicgrowth
Resourcegrowth
Defcit
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The Malthusian Crisis
The +Malthusian crisis◦ Availa4le agricultural spaces are limite.
◦ Technical progresses machinery irrigation %ertili,ersan ne* types o% crops= are slo* to occur.
◦ /ncreasing incapa4ility to support the population.
◦ /% this persists the population *ill eventually surpassthe availa4le resources.
◦ The outcomes are +Malthusian crises 6oo shortages.
6amines.
War an epiemics.
◦ +6i; the population in accorance *ith availa4leresources.
◦ Necessity o% a +moral restraint on reprouction.
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Overexploitation
The Malthusian Crisis
Population
Resources
Technological Innovation
ime
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!uantity t2
t3
t1
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The Malthusian Crisis
The Malthusian Crisis has not occurre◦ Malthus has 4een critici,e on several accounts
uring the last "?? years.
◦ :eligious vie* Protestantism= racist an elitist.
◦
Di not %oresee the emographic transition Changes in the economy that change the role o%
chilren in the inustriali,ing societies.
◦ 6aile to account %or improvements in technology 2na4le %oo prouction to increase at rates greater
than arithmetic o%ten at rates e;ceeing those o%population gro*th.
2na4le to access larger amounts o% resources.
2na4le %orms o% contraception.
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33 Contemporary /ssues
The Malthusian crisis toay◦ Demographic gro*th Bet*een 1? an "??? three 4illion persons *ere ae
to the glo4al population.
To sustain this gro*th agricultural resources ha to 4e
ou4le. :e5uire housing space surpasse all that *as constructe
since the 4eginning o% man8in.
◦ Agricultural gro*th Bet*een 1? an 1? grain yiels has increase 4y
"H *hile cultivate sur%aces have only increase 4y EH. 6oresee a limit to gro*th in agricultural prouction.
◦ Consumption gro*th.
◦ 2nvironmental egraation.
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Contemporary /ssues
:elevance o% the Malthusian theory◦ Was Malthus right or the tren in agricultural
prouction *ill again increase to surpasspopulation gro*th!
◦ Are improvements in agricultural techni5uesenough to ans*er eman!
◦ The ne;t "@ years *ill 4e crucial an *ill 4ring%or*ar ans*ers to these 5uestions.
◦ The *or8 o% Malthus continues to 4e important to
emographers /nuence o% many contemporary theorists %rom various
acaemic isciplines.
Built upon MalthusGs ieas an lin8e them to moernsciences.
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Neo-Malthusianism
1. Neo-Malthusian Concepts◦ 0o* can the Malthusian theory 4e
aapte to the current situation!
". The Commons◦ /n *hich *ay common resources are
use!
&. Neo-Malthusianism an 0uman:eprouction
◦ /s reprouction a right or privilege!
CC
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Neo-Malthusian Concepts
Carrying capacity◦ /ssue lin8e *ith the carrying capacity o% lan.
◦ 7imits to a4sor4 ever-greater num4ers o% people.
◦ Population gro*th has environmental impacts.
◦ #upport o% %amily planning contraception an a4ortion.
◦ Population pro4lems cannot 4e aresse throughtechnology 4eyon the short term.
)verpopulation
◦ A multiimensional issue lin8e *ith the carrying
capacity.◦ Num4ers shoul 4e lin8e *ith level o% consumption.
◦ The 3nite #tates *oul 4e more overpopulate thanChina.
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Neo-Malthusian Concepts
Population 4om4◦ 6ast population gro*th seen as a threat The *or +4om4 o4viously re%er to the lethal
character o% the pro4lem.
◦
Brought %or*ar 4y Paul 2hrlich in the late1?s.
◦ Most Thir Worl countries *ere in the mile o%their emographic transition at the time.
◦ 2hrlich an others continue the 4asic
Malthusian num4ers game in *hich populationgro*th outstrips %oo prouction.
◦ Move Beyon Malthus in their consieration o%many environmental issues.
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Neo-Malthusian Concepts
7imits to gro*th◦ +Clu4 o% :ome 1>"
◦ #cienti<c report on the limits togro*th.
◦ 3se computer moels %or the <rst
time Population gro*th %oo per capita
inustrial output resources anpollution.
◦ Blaming huge *aste o% resources
4y evelope economies.◦ #upporting a ,ero gro*th policy.
◦ Main arguments :esources are in <nite num4er.
Demographic gro*th cannot occurine<nitely.
Must stop at some point.
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Population
Industrial output
Resources
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The Commons
De<nition◦ :esources that *e share as a population 7an an other inputs into the %oo prouction process.
)ceans an their contents particularly <sh as a %oo source.
The atmosphere.
#ources o% energy. 7anscape %or recreational purposes.
◦ :esources o% the commons are in <nite 5uantities *hileaccess is %ree in theory=.
◦ The *orl is <nite an can support only a <nitepopulation Population gro*th must eventually e5ual ,ero.
)ther*ise *e have to a4anon certain %reeoms o% access tothe Commons.
The only *ay %reeoms can 4e save is 4y relin5uishing the%reeom to 4ree.
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The Commons
2;ample o% using the commons◦ Decision on *hether to increase the si,e o% her
that gra,es on common lans.
◦ A rational 4eing see8ing to ma;imi,e his gain
Positive component o% aing animals is aitionalincome %rom aitional animals.
Negative component is the overgra,ing cause 4y theaitional animals.
The costs are share 4y those using the commongra,ing lans.
Decision to a the e;tra animals to his her.
3n%ortunately all o% the other villages *ill arrive at thesame conclusion o the same thing.
◦ The outcome is the ruin to the environment.
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The Commons
Village " # $ %
Cattle * * * *
Commons +, - +. / .
Cattle %0+(,
%0+(,
%0+(,
%0+(,
Commons +, - +1 / 2. %overgra!ing(
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Commonssustain !"#
1
Village
2
4
3
Cattle &gra'ing(
)ene*its+ ," each
Costs+ -" each
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The Commons
The tragey o% the commons◦ 6reeom in a commons 4rings ruin to all.
◦ All the resources *ill 4e use.
#olutions
◦ Private property :emoves some o% the Commons %rom access.
2ncourages conservation an *ise management.
(este interest in maintaining it %or %uture use.
◦ Collective property
Parts o% the Commons not possi4le to ivie into privatesegments - atmosphere oceans etc.
Collective glo4al= o*nership.
Ta;ation an coercive la*s as the primary means o%preservation.
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Worl 6ish Catch per Capita1@?-1
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Commercial 0arvests in the North*est Atlantic o%#ome 6ish #toc8s 1@?-@ in 1??? metric tons=22
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Car4on 2missions %rom 6ossil 6uelBurning 1>@1-"??1
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Neo-Malthusianism an 0uman:eprouction
0uman reprouction◦ Malthus *as avocating +moral restraint A religious 4ias.
◦ Moern contraception
A tool o% population control state perspective=. A tool o% %reeom in reprouctive choice mar8et
perspective=.
◦ Against su4sii,ing reprouction
Wel%are state. Many international ai programs.
:emove the punishment such as chilren starvingto eath= %rom having too many o9spring.
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Neo-Malthusianism an 0uman:eprouction
6reeom to 4ree◦ Clashes 4et*een neo-Malthusianism an human rights.
◦ 3NGs Declaration o% 0uman :ights De%ense o% the iniviual %amilyGs right to etermine %amily si,e.
#upport the %reeom to 4ree %or political reasons.
6e* governments are a4le or *illing to en%orce restrictions onthe reprouction o% their populations.
◦ 0uman population control cannot 4e achieve throughvoluntary means.
◦ With %reeom to 4ree comes e5ual o4ligations :esponsi4ility to the *el%are o% the chilren.
DiIcult concept to grasp especially 4y an uneucatepopulation.
◦ 2ach ne* iniviual competes *ith other %or resources.
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The Creative Pressure
1. Concept an /ssues◦ What oes the creative pressure
theory imply!
". 7imits to Prouctivity◦ What may 4e the limits to
prouctivity!
&. Creative Pressure vs. Neo-Malthusianism
◦ Can Neo-Malthusianism an creativepressure 4e reconcile!
DD
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Concept an /ssuesConcept
◦
)ppose to the Malthusianan Neo-Malthusianperspectives.
◦ Brought %or*ar in theearly 1?s.
◦
(ie* share 4y severaleconomists.
◦ Population has a positiveimpact on economicgro*th.
◦ +Necessity is the mothero% all inventions.
◦ Population pressure %orcesthe <ning o% solutions Agriculture.
2conomy.
11
Demographicgrowth
$igheroccupation
densities
Pressures toincrease
producti%ity
Inno%ations
Producti%itygrowth
&
P r o ' l e m
S o l u t i o n
( u t c o m e
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Concept an /ssues
Technological innovation anagriculture
◦ /ntensi<cation o% agriculture.
◦ Ne* methos o% %ertili,ation.◦ Pesticie use.
◦ /rrigation.
◦
Multi-cropping systems in *hichmore than one crop *oul 4ereali,e per year.
Creative pressure an glo4al
population gro*th
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7imits to Prouctivity
7imits o% %oo prouction 4yenvironmental %actors
◦ #oil e;haustion an erosion.
◦ 2volutionary %actors such as theevelopment o% greater resistance topesticies.
◦ Climate change.
◦ 7oss o% prouctive soils ue to lanuse conversion to other purposessuch as ur4ani,ation.
◦ Water shortages an pollution.
22
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Creative Pressure vs. Neo-Malthusianism
33
Carrying capacity
Demographic transitionPopulation
Resources
)!st century
Creati%epressure
*n%ironmentaldegradation
!+th,)0th century
eo-Malthusianism
Malthusianism
i
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Creative Pressure vs. Neo-Malthusianism
Neo-Malthusianism◦ Population consumes
resources.
◦ Population gro*th hasenvironmental
conse5uences.
◦ Notion o% carryingcapacity.
◦ Population shoul 4econtrolle 4y strict%amily planning policies.
◦ )verpopulation lin8e*ith levels o%consumption.
Creative Pressure
◦ Population inuces thecreation o% resourcesan the su4stitution to
alternative sources.◦ +Necessity is the mother
o% all inventions.
◦ Population *ill a$ustitsel% to the 5uantity o%
il 4l
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