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1
Factors Adding to Reserves
Note: Data are weekly averages for all but the Foreign Central Bank TAF which are as of the last day of the week.
Source: Federal Reserve Board of Governors Statistical Release H.4.1.
"
TDWP-8/17/07"
TSLF-3/11/08
PDCF-3/16/08
SeriesBreak
TAF-12/12/07
SeriesBreak
$450
$600
$750
$900
$1,050
$1,200
$1,350
$1,500
$1,650
$1,800
$1,950
$2,100
$2,250
$2,400
$2,550
$2,700
$2,850
$3,000
$3,150
$3,300
8-Aug-07
28-Nov-07
9-Jan-08
20-Feb-08
2-Apr-08
24-Sep-08
5-Nov-08
17-Dec-08
28-Jan-09
11-Mar-09
22-Apr-09
03-Jun-09
15-Jul-09
26-Aug-09
07-Oct-09
18-Nov-09
30-Dec-09
10-Feb-10
24-Mar-10
5-May-10
16-Jun-10
28-Jul-10
8-Sep-10
20-Oct-10
1-Dec-10
12-Jan-11
23-Feb-11
6-Apr-11
18-May-11
29-Jun-11
10-Aug-11
21-Sep-11
2-Nov-11
14-Dec-11
25-Jan-12
7-Mar-12
18-Apr-12
30-May-12
11-Jul-12
22-Aug-12
3-Oct-12
14-Nov-12
26-Dec-12
6-Feb-13
$
Bn
Factors Adding to Reserves on Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet (Assets) Plus
Off-Balance TSLF from 6/27/07 to 3/13/13
Mortgage Backed Securities
US Treasuries
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Factors Using Reserves
Note: Data are weekly averages for all but the Foreign Central Bank TAF which are as of the last day of the week.
Source: Federal Reserve Board of Governors Statistical Release H.4.1.
TS
LF-3/11/08,950
"TDWP-8/17/07"
TAF-12/12/07
PDCF-3/16/08
SeriesBreak
SeriesBreak
$450
$600
$750
$900
$1,050
$1,200
$1,350
$1,500
$1,650
$1,800
$1,950
$2,100
$2,250
$2,400
$2,550$2,700
$2,850
$3,000
$3,150
$3,300
27-Jun-07
8-Aug-07
28-Nov-07
9-Jan-08
20-Feb-08
2-Apr-08
24-Sep-08
5-Nov-08
17-Dec-08
28-Jan-09
11-Mar-09
22-Apr-09
03-Jun-09
15-Jul-09
26-Aug-09
07-Oct-09
18-Nov-09
30-Dec-09
10-Feb-10
24-Mar-10
5-May-10
16-Jun-10
28-Jul-10
8-Sep-10
20-Oct-10
1-Dec-10
12-Jan-11
23-Feb-11
6-Apr-11
18-May-11
29-Jun-11
10-Aug-11
21-Sep-11
2-Nov-11
14-Dec-11
25-Jan-12
7-Mar-12
18-Apr-12
30-May-12
11-Jul-12
22-Aug-12
3-Oct-12
14-Nov-12
26-Dec-12
6-Feb-13
Factors Using Reserves on Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet (Liabilities)from 6/27/2007 to 3/13/2013
Billions
Currency in Circulation
Reserve Balances
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Projected Baseline Assets
Source: Crunch Time: Fiscal Crises and the Role of Monetary Policy. Greenlaw, Hamilton, Hooper, and Mishkin (2013).
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Projected Baseline Liabilities
Source: Crunch Time: Fiscal Crises and the Role of Monetary Policy. Greenlaw, Hamilton, Hooper, and Mishkin (2013).
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Everyone is Now Looking at Jobs
When will unemployment most recently at7.7% hit 6.5%?
We have looked at job formation assuming 0.7%annual growth in labor force and -0.3% annual
change in participation rate.
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How Many Jobs Does the Economy Create?
Assumed Quarterly %
Real GDP Growth
Estimated Number of
Jobs Created within
the Quarter
Estimated Number of
Quarters to Create 3.217
Million Jobs
Estimated Number
of Jobs Created
Within Quarter
Estimated Number
of Quarters to
Create 3.217
Million Jobs
Estimated Number
of Jobs Created
Within Quarter
Estimated
Number of
Quarters to
Create 3.217
Million Jobs
Average Hi (95%) Interval Low (95%) Interval
1 161 20 188 17 134 24
2 322 10 377 9 268 12
3 483 7 565 6 402 8
4 644 5 753 4 536 6
Assumed Quarterly %
Real GDP Growth
Estimated Number of
Jobs Created per
Month
Estimated Number of
Months to Create 3.217
Million Jobs
Estimated Number
of Jobs Created per
Month
Estimated Number
of Months to
Create 3.217
Million Jobs
Estimated Number
of Jobs Created
Within Month
Estimated
Number of
Months to
Create 3.217
Million Jobs
Average Hi (95%) Interval Low (95%) Interval
1 54 60 63 51 45 72
2 107 30 126 26 89 363 161 20 188 17 134 24
4 215 15 251 13 179 18
Source: Haver and Cumberland Advisors
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GDP Growth Needed to Create Enough Jobsfor Unemployment to Hit 6.5%
Source: Cumberland Advisors
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Job Growth Needed to Hit 6.5% Unemployment
Source: Cumberland Advisors
10305070
90110130150170190210230250270290310330
350370390410430450470490510530550570
590610630650
4/1/2012
7/10/2012
10/18/2012
1/26/2013
5/6/2013
8/14/2013
11/22/2013
3/2/2014
6/10/2014
9/18/2014
12/27/2014
4/6/2015
7/15/2015
10/23/2015
1/31/2016
5/10/2016
8/18/2016
11/26/2016
3/6/2017
6/14/2017
9/22/2017
12/31/2017
Month in Which Unemployment Rate Reaches 6.5% for Assumed
Monthly Job Growth - Labor Force is Assumed to Increase at .7%
Annually and Participation Rate is Assumed to Decline .3% Annually
95% Confidence Lower Bound
95% Confidence Upper Bound
If the economy creates 210,000 jobs per month, unemployment
will hit 6.5% between Feb 2014 and May 2014.
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U3 Through U6
Source: BLS and Cumberland Advisors, Inc.
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
Jan
May
Sep
Jan
May
Sep
Jan
May
Sep
Jan
May
Sep
Jan
May
Sep
Jan
May
Sep
Jan
May
Sep
Jan
May
Sep
Jan
May
Sep
Jan
May
Sep
Jan
May
Sep
Jan
May
Sep
Jan
May
Sep
Jan
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Perc
ent
U6 U5 U4 U3
U4 : U3 + "discouraged workers", or those who have stopped looking for work because current economic conditionsmake them believe that no work is available for them.
U5 : U4 + other "marginally attached workers", or "loosely attached workers", or those who "would like" and are able tobut have not looked for work recently.
U6 : U5 + Part-time workers who want to work full-time, but cannot due to economic reasons.
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Sources of Difference Between U6 andStandard Employment Statistic
Source: BLS and Cumberland Advisors, Inc.
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
Jan
May
Sep
Jan
May
Sep
Jan
May
Sep
Jan
May
Sep
Jan
May
Sep
Jan
May
Sep
Jan
May
Sep
Jan
May
Sep
Jan
May
Sep
Jan
May
Sep
Jan
May
Sep
Jan
May
Sep
Jan
May
Sep
Jan
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Percent
% Discouraged Workers %Marginally Attached Workers %Part-Time Workers Who Want Full Time Work
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The Beveridge Curve: Job Vacancy Rate vs.U-3 Unemployment Rate (Seasonally Adjusted)
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
3.5 4.5 5.5 6.5 7.5 8.5 9.5 10.5
Jo
b
Vacancy
Rate
U-3 Unemployment Rate
Dec '01- Nov '07 Dec '07- Jun '09 Jul '09- Jan '13
Nov '07
Dec '12
Jun '09
Dec '01
Dec '07
Jul '09
Jan '13
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Population Survey and Job Openings Labor Turnover Survey, March 12, 2013
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Monthly Unemployment vs. Inflation
Source: Concept: Thomas W. Synnott, Bureau of Labor Statistics March 15, 2013
Jan-07
Feb-07 Mar-07
Apr-07
May-07
Jun-07
Jul-07
Aug-07
Sep-07
Oct-07Nov-07
Dec-07Jan-08
Feb-08
Mar-08Apr-08
May-08
Jun-08
Jul-08
Aug-08
Sep-08
Oct-08
Nov-08
Dec-08
Jan-09
Feb-09
Mar-09
Apr-09
May-09Jun-09
Jul-09Aug-09
Sep-09
Oct-09 Nov-09
Dec-09Jan-10Feb-10
Mar-10Apr-10
May-10
Jun-10Jul-10
Aug-10
Sep-10 Oct-10
Nov-10
Dec-10
Jan-11
Feb-11
Mar-11
Apr-11
May-11 Jun-11
Jul-11
Aug-11Sep-11
Oct-11
Nov-11Dec-11
Jan-12Feb-12Mar-12
Apr-12May-12
Jun-12
Jul-12
Aug-12Sep-12Oct-12
Nov-12Dec-12
Jan-13
Feb-13
Fed Target
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
11.0
-3.0 -2.0 -1.0 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0
UnemploymentRate(U-3)
Inflation (CPI )Pre-Crisis During Crisis Post Crisis
During Crisis
(Dec. '07-June '09)
Post Crisis
(Jul '09-present)
Pre-Crisis
(Jan '07-Nov '07)
(6.5% unemployment rate, 2.5% inflation rate)
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Total Assets of Major Central Banks
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
Jan-06
Apr-06
Jul-06
Oct-06
Jan-07
Apr-07
Jul-07
Oct-07
Jan-08
Apr-08
Jul-08
Oct-08
Jan-09
Apr-09
Jul-09
Oct-09
Jan-10
Apr-10
Jul-10
Oct-10
Jan-11
Apr-11
Jul-11
Oct-11
Jan-12
Apr-12
Jul-12
Oct-12
Jan-13
$ Billions
Monthly Central Bank Assets (Dollar Equivalents on Left Scale $ Billions)
for US, UK,Japan, Euro Area, and Swiss National Bank
from June-06 to Feb-13
Federal Res erve Bank of England ECB Bank of Japan Swiss National Bank
X
Mar. 2013
Estimate:
$10020 bn
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European System of Central Banks
0
500000
1000000
1500000
2000000
2500000
3000000
3500000
1/1/1999
5/21/1999
10/8/1999
2/25/2000
7/14/2000
12/1/2000
4/20/2001
9/7/2001
1/25/2002
6/14/2002
11/1/2002
3/21/2003
8/8/2003
12/26/2003
5/14/2004
10/1/2004
2/18/2005
7/8/2005
11/25/2005
4/14/2006
9/1/2006
1/19/2007
6/8/2007
10/26/2007
3/14/2008
8/1/2008
12/19/2008
5/8/2009
9/25/2009
2/12/2010
7/2/2010
11/19/2010
4/8/2011
8/26/2011
1/13/2012
6/1/2012
10/19/2012
Eurosystem: Other Assets (NSA, Mil.EUR)
Eurosystem: Asset: General Govt Debt
Denominated in Euro (NSA, Mil.EUR)
Eurosystem: Asset: Securities of Euro Area
Resid in Euro (NSA, Mil.EUR)
Eurosystem: Asset: Oth Claim on Eur AreaCred Inst in Euro(NSA Mil.EUR)
Eurosystem: Asset: Lending to Euro Area
Cred Inst in Euro (NSA Mil.EUR)
Eurosystem: Asset: Claims on Noneuro
Residents in Euros (NSA, Mil.EUR)
Eurosystem: Asset: Claims on Euro Res in
Fgn Currency (NSA, Mil.EUR)
Eurosystem: Asset: Claims on Noneuro Res
in Fgn Currency (NSA Mil.EUR)
Eurosystem: Asset: Gold and Gold
Receivables (NSA, Mil.EUR)
European System of Central Banks Assets in Euros from 01/05/07 to 03/01/13
Source: Oesterreichische Nationalbank.
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European System - Liabilities
0
500000
1000000
1500000
2000000
2500000
3000000
3500000
1/1/1999
5/14/1999
9/24/1999
2/4/2000
6/16/2000
10/27/2000
3/9/2001
7/20/2001
11/30/2001
4/12/2002
8/23/2002
1/3/2003
5/16/2003
9/26/2003
2/6/2004
6/18/2004
10/29/2004
3/11/2005
7/22/2005
12/2/2005
4/14/2006
8/25/2006
1/5/2007
5/18/2007
9/28/2007
2/8/2008
6/20/2008
10/31/2008
3/13/2009
7/24/2009
12/4/2009
4/16/2010
8/27/2010
1/7/2011
5/20/2011
9/30/2011
2/10/2012
6/22/2012
11/2/2012
Eurosystem: Capital and Reserves
(NSA, Mil.EUR)
Eurosystem: Revaluation Accounts
(NSA, Mil.EUR)
Eurosystem: Other Liabilities (NSA,
Mil.EUR)
Eurosystem: Liab: Counterpart of
SDRs Allocated by IMF (NSA,
Mil.EUR)
Eurosystem: Liab to Noneuro Area
Resid in Fgn Currency (NSA,
Mil.EUR)
Eurosystem: Liab to Euro Area
Residents in Fgn Currency (NSA,
Mil.EUR)
Eurosystem: Liab to Non-euro Area
Residents in Euro (NSA, Mil.EUR)
Eurosystem: Liab to Other Euro Area
Residents in Euro (NSA, Mil.EUR)
Eurosystem: Liab: Debt Certificates
Issued (NSA, Mil.EUR)
Eurosystem: Other Liab to Euro Area
Credit Inst in Euro (NSA, Mil.EUR)
Eurosystem: Liab to Euro Area Credit
Institutions in Euro(NSA, Mil.EUR)
Eurosystem: Liab: Banknotes in
Circulation (NSA, Mil.EUR)
European System of Central Banks Liabilities in Euros from 01/05/07 to 03/01/13
Source: Oesterreichische Nationalbank.
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Bank of England Assets
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
350000
400000
450000 UK: BoE Consol St: Short-term Open Mkt Operations{RPWB66A} (NSA, Mil.Pounds)
UK: BoE Consolidated Statement: Total Other Assets{RPWB74A} (NSA, Mil.Pounds)
UK: BoE Cons St: Other Sec Acq Via Mkt Transactns{RPWB73A} (NSA, Mil.Pounds)
UK: BoE Consol St: Advances to the Central Govt {RPWB72A} --DISC(NSA,Mil.Pounds)
UK: BoE Consol St: Longer-term Reverse Repo {RPWB69A}(NSA, Mil.Pounds)
Bank of England Assets in Pounds Sterling from 01/03/07 to 03/06/13
Source: Bank of England.
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Bank of England Liabilities
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
350000
400000
450000
1/3/2007
4/3/2007
7/3/2007
10/3/2007
1/3/2008
4/3/2008
7/3/2008
10/3/2008
1/3/2009
4/3/2009
7/3/2009
10/3/2009
1/3/2010
4/3/2010
7/3/2010
10/3/2010
1/3/2011
4/3/2011
7/3/2011
10/3/2011
1/3/2012
4/3/2012
7/3/2012
10/3/2012
1/3/2013
UK: BoE Consolidated St: Foreign Currency Securities
{RPWB59A} (NSA, Mil.Pounds)
UK: BoE Consolidated Statement: Other Liabilities
{RPWB63A} (NSA, Mil.Pounds)
UK: BoE Consolidated Statement: Cash Ratio Deposits
{RPWB62A} (NSA, Mil.Pounds)
UK: BoE Cons St: Open Mkt Operatns: Fine-tuning Repo
{RPWB58A} (NSA, Mil.Pounds)
UK: BoE Consol St: Standing Facility Deposits
{RPWB57A} --DISC (NSA, Mil.Pounds)
UK: BoE Consol St: Reserve Balance Liabilities
{RPWB56A} (NSA, Mil.Pounds)
UK: BoE Consolidated St: Notes in Circulation{RPWB55A} (NSA, Mil.Pounds)
Bank of England Liabilities in Pounds Sterling from 01/03/07 to 03/06/13
Source: Bank of England.
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Swiss National Bank Assets
0
100000
200000
300000
400000
500000
600000
012007
042007
072007
102007
012008
042008
072008
102008
012009
042009
072009
102009
012010
042010
072010
102010
012011
042011
072011
102011
012012
042012
072012
102012
012013
Swiss National Bank Assets in Swiss Francs from 01/31/07 to 01/31/13
Reserve position in the IF
Other assets
Loan to stabilisation fund
CHF securities
Claims against dome stic correspondents
Domestic Money Market claims
Balances from swap transactions against CHF
Claims from USD repo transactions
Claims from CHF repo transactions
Monetary assistance loans
International payent instruments
Foreign currency investents
Gold holdings and clais from gold transactions
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Swiss National Bank Liabilities
0
100000
200000
300000
400000
500000
600000
012007
042007
072007
102007
012008
042008
072008
102008
012009
042009
072009
102009
012010
042010
072010
102010
012011
042011
072011
102011
012012
042012
072012
102012
012013
Swiss National Bank Liabilities in Swiss Francs from 01/31/07 to 01/31/13
Provisions and equity capital
Other liabilities
Counterpart of special drawing rights allocated by
the IF
Foreign currency liabilities
Other tie liabilities
SNB debt certificates
Liabilities from CHF repo transactions
Other sight liabilities
Sight deposits of foreign banks and institutions
Liabilities towards the Confederation
Sight deposits of domestic banks
Banknotes in circulation
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0.00
20,000.00
40,000.00
60,000.00
80,000.00
100,000.00
120,000.00
140,000.00
160,000.00
180,000.00
Jul-97
Nov-97
Mar-98
Jul-98
Nov-98
Mar-99
Jul-99
Nov-99
Mar-00
Jul-00
Nov-00
Mar-01
Jul-01
Nov-01
Mar-02
Jul-02
Nov-02
Mar-03
Jul-03
Nov-03
Mar-04
Jul-04
Nov-04
Mar-05
Jul-05
Nov-05
Mar-06
Jul-06
Nov-06
Mar-07
Jul-07
Nov-07
Mar-08
Jul-08
Nov-08
Mar-09
Jul-09
Nov-09
Mar-10
Jul-10
Nov-10
Mar-11
Jul-11
Nov-11
Mar-12
Jul-12
Nov-12
Y
e
n
Bank of Japan Assets from 7/ 97 to 2/13
Gold (Bil.Yen) Receivables Under Resale Agreements (Bi l.Yen) Bills Purchased (Bil.Yen)
Government Securities in Custody (Bil.Yen) Commercial Bills Discounted (Bil.Yen) Commercial Paper (EOP, Bil.Yen)
Corpora te Bonds (EOP, Bil. Yen) Pecunia ry Trusts [Stocks Hel d as Tr ust Property ] (Bi l.Yen) Inde x-Linke d Exch-Trade d Funds Held a s Trus t Prop(Bil. Yen)
Real Estate Invt Trusts (Bil.Yen) Cash (Bil.Yen) Japanese Government Securities (Bil.Yen)
A ss et -B acke d Se cu ritie s ( Bil.Y en) Lo ans E xclu ding T hose to th e D ep os it I ns ura nce Corp(Bil .Ye n) Lo ans to D eposit Insur ance Corp orat ion (Bi l.Y en)
Foreign Currency Assets (Bil.Yen) Deposits with Agents (Bil.Yen) Cash Collat in Exchange for Govt Securities Borrowed(Bil.Yen)
Other (Bil.Yen) Tot al Assets (Bi l.Yen)
Florida Office New Jersey Office (800) 257-7013One Sarasota Tower 614 E. Landis Avenue
2 N. Tamiami Trail, Suite 303 Vineland, NJ 08360
Sarasota, FL 34236
20
Bank of Japan Assets
Japan removes QE2
with Bills Purchased
Source: Bank of Japan.
7/29/2019 32613 Gic Dubai
21/22
Copyright 2013 Cumberland Advisors
. Further distribution prohibited without prior permission.
Florida Office New Jersey Office (800) 257-7013One Sarasota Tower 614 E. Landis Avenue
2 N. Tamiami Trail, Suite 303 Vineland, NJ 08360
Sarasota, FL 34236
21
Bank of Japan Liabilities
0.00
20,000.00
40,000.00
60,000.00
80,000.00
100,000.00
120,000.00
140,000.00
160,000.00
180,000.00
Y
e
n
Bank of Japan Liabilities from 7/ 97 to 2/13
Banknotes (Bil.Yen) Current deposits (Bil.Yen) Other deposits (Bil.Yen)
Payables Under Repurchase Agreements (Bil.Yen) Bills Sold (Bil.Yen) Other (Bil.Yen)
Provisions (Bil.Yen) Deposits of the Govt(Bil.Yen) Capital (Bil.Yen)
Legal & Special Reserves (Bil.Yen) Govt Securities Borrowed (Bil.Yen) Total Liabilities & Capital Accounts (Bil.Yen)
Japan removes QE2
with Current Deposits
Removed
Source: Bank of Japan.
7/29/2019 32613 Gic Dubai
22/22
Copyright 2013 Cumberland Advisors
. Further distribution prohibited without prior permission.
Florida Office New Jersey Office (800) 257-7013One Sarasota Tower 614 E. Landis Avenue
2 N. Tamiami Trail, Suite 303 Vineland, NJ 08360
Sarasota, FL 34236
22
All material presented is compiled from sources believed to be reliable.
However, accuracy cannot be guaranteed. Past performance is no
guarantee of future results.
Disclosure