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EBC Climate Change Program Series:
Part One – The Science, Modeling,
and Implications of ClimateChange for Coastal New England
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Ruth Silman
Chair, EBC Climate Change & Air Committe
Partner, Nixon Peabody LLP
Welcome
Environmental Business Council of New England
Energy Environment Economy
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Scott TurnerProgram Chair and Moderator
Director of Planning
Nitsch Engineering
Environmental Business Council of New England
Energy Environment Economy
Introduction
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Environmental Business Council of New England
Energy Environment Economy
The Science of
Changing Storms and
Sea Levels
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Kerry Emanuel
Professor of Atmospheric Science
MIT
Environmental Business Council of New England
Energy Environment Economy
Climate Change Impacts on Storm
Frequency and Intensity
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Climate Change Impa
Storm Frequency and Int
Kerry Emanuel
Lorenz Center, MIT
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Program
Brief overview of New Englandhurricanes
How will New England hurricanes be
affected by global warming?
How should we assess hurricane risk?
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Storm Surge
Inland Flooding from R
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Limitations of a strictly statistical approac
to hurricane risk assessment
>50% of all normalized U.S. hurricane damage causedby top 8 events, all category 3, 4 and 5
>90% of all damage caused by storms of category 3 an
greater
Category 3,4 and 5 events are only 13% of total
landfalling events; only 30 since 1870Landfalling storm statistics are inadequate for
assessing hurricane risk
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MIT Risk Assessment Approach:
Step 1: Seed each ocean basin with a very largenumber of weak, randomly located cyclones
Step 2: Cyclones are assumed to move with thelarge scale atmospheric flow in which they areembedded, plus a correction for the earth’s rotationand sphericity
Step 3: Run detailed but fast computer model foreach cyclone, and note how many achieve at leasttropical storm strength
Step 4: Using the small fraction of surviving eventsdetermine storm statistics
Details: Emanuel et al., Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc , 2008
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Wind Swath
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Accumulated Rain
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Return Periods
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Storm Surge Simulation
SLOSH mesh
~ 103 m
ADCIRC
~ 102
Battery
ADCIRC model
(Luettich et al. 1992 )
SLOSH model
(Jelesnianski et al. 1992 )
ADCIRC m
~ 10 m
(Colle et al. 2
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Surge Return Periods for The Battery, New York
Sandy
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Taking Climate Change IntoAccount
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Hurricanes Passing within 150 km of Boston
Downscaled from 5 climate models
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Surge Risk, Boston Harbor
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b k h
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Boston Harbor Surge Risk with 1 meter
Sea Level Rise
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Boston Rain Risk
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Boston with 1.5 m storm surge
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From: American Climate Prospectus Economic Risks in the United States
Sea level risealone
Sea level rise +
changing storms
Summary
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Summary
New England history is too short, sparse,
and imperfect to estimate hurricane risk
Better estimates can be made by
downscaling hurricane activity from
climatological or global model output
New England hurricanes clearly vary with
climate and there is a decided risk that
hurricane threats will increase over this
century
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Spares
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Wind speed and direction at Logan Airport
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Christopher Little
Staff Scientist,
Atmospheric and Environmental
Research, Inc. (AER)
Environmental Business Council of New England
Energy Environment Economy
Sea Level Rise
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Predicting 21st century sea leve
scientific basis and key challenges
Dr. Chris Little
EBCNE talk
M
20
Dotson ice shelf front, Antarctica
Atmospheric and Environmental Research, Inc.
Research and Development Division – Oceanography Group
On mePerspective…
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II. Sea le
rise (S
assessm
…On me
I. Ice sheet-
ocean
interactions
Sea level 101
21st century SLR projections
Why the ice sheet contributio
remains uncertain
p
…On this talk
How climate influences sea level (short version)
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How climate influences sea level (short version)
Stammer et al. 2013
Ocean warming
and expansionFreshwater
exchange with land-
based ice
The cryosphere is
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the part of Earth’s
surface that is
frozen
10% of land
Land based ice locks up a lot of freshwater
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Land-based ice locks up a lot of freshwater
~1.5 feet~200 feet
IPCC AR5 2013
Sea level change is local!
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Sea level change is local!
Freshwater ex
Ice sheet m
change
Glacier mas
Land water
Oceanograph
Density cha
Mass
rearrangem
Solid-earth
Isostatic adj
Subsidence
How do we observe sea level change?
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How do we observe sea level change?
Tide gauges
From 1800’s (varies)
Relative, local, sea level
(includes land motion)
Even earlier: proxies
(corals, highstands, etc)
Altimetry
Since early 1990’s
Absolute, global, sea le
Tide gauges reveal a wide variation in sea lev
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trends, even over short distances
Subsidence and (accelerating?) dynamic sea level rise
Norfolk
~ 17 inches/c
Narragansett
~ 10 inches/c
Global mean
~ 6.7 inches/c
M e a n s e a l e v e l r e l a t i v e t o 1 8 8 0 ( c e n t i m e t e r s )
Modified from Kopp 2013
Altimeters show
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even larger
spatial
variability over
the past 20years
Altimetry-derived
linear trends
(mm/yr 1993-2010)
http://www.esa.int/ESA
Gl b l l locean warming ~ 30-40 %
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Global sea level
trends
g
glaciers melting ~ 30%
ice sheets: recent increase to >25%
Hay et al 2015
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in past 20 years…
~ 3 cm of sea level rise from ice
= 10800 km3 of ice (~3 mile thick block of ice inside 495)
= 24 billion tons of ice
IPCC AR5 2013
Projecting future sea level
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change
S
e a l e v e l
Projections require models of climate
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and the response of each component
Vertical land
motion model
Global climate
models
Concentrations
Emissions
IPCC Fifth Assessment (AR5) SLR projections
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“only the collapse of marine-based sectors of the Antarctic Ice Sheet, if initiated,
could cause global mean sea level to rise substantially …but there is medium
confidence that it would not exceed several tenths of a meter of sea level rise
during the 21st century.”
Intergovernmental Pan
Climate Change AR
Summary for Policyma
cha
hS
2046-2065 2081-2100~ emissions
scenario
Mid-century:
7-15 inchesEnd of century:
10-33 inches
Probabilistic global mean sea level projections (RCP 8.5)
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B
est
~3*
M e a n s e a l e v e l r e l a t i v e
t o 2 0 0 0
( c e n t i m e t e r s )
99%
range
66%
range
5% chance = >4 feet
1% chance = ~6 feet*
Kopp, R.E., D.J. Rasmussen, R.M. Horton, C.M. Little, J.X. Mitrovica, M. Oppenheimer, B.H. Strauss and C. Tebaldi, Earth’s Future (2014
Probabil istic 21st and 22nd century sea-level rise projections at a global network of tide gauge sites.
2000-2100 local sea level (LSL) projections
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Median 2100 LSL change (m)
(RCP 8.5 2000-2100 global mean =0.78 m)
( ) p j
Juneau = 35 inch FALL!
Galveston= 50 inch rise Norfolk = 42 inch ris
San Francisco = 30 inch ris
Kopp, R.E., D.J. Rasmussen, R.M. Horton, C.M. Little, J.X. Mitrovica, M. Oppenheimer, B.H. Strauss and C. Tebaldi, Earth’s Future (2014
Probabil istic 21st and 22nd century sea-level rise projections at a global network of tide gauge sites.
The uncertain future of ice
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sheets
The ice sheet contribution to sea level
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~56 m
earthobservatory.nasa.gov
Grounding Lines
“Dynamic” = chan
in ice flow across
grounding line
“Surface mass
balance” = snowfall
and surface melting
Ice
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NSIDC, Goldberg et al. 2009
11% of the ice sheet i
floating!
~45%/55%
calving/melting; 50%
from 8% of area Exert resistive stress
grounded ice
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As we approached theland … we perceiveda low white line
…proving at length tobe a perpendicularcliff of ice, betweenone hundred and fiftyand two hundred feetabove the level of thesea, perfectly flat andlevel at the top, andwithout any fissures
or promontories on itseven seaward face.
(J. C. Ross, Voyageto the Southern Seas, vol i,, p. 117)
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Current ice loss is mostly dynamic, and triggered by o
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Thinning Thickening Pritchard 20
Pine Island Glacier is thinning
up to 30 feet per year
Ice shelves experience abrupt breakup events
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Larsen B ice shelf
1/31/02 – 3/7/02
NSIDC, Scambos et al. 2004
2-8x speedup in
1 year in upstream glaciers!
2002
2008
1995
Breakups
Marine Ice Sheet Instability (MISI) amplifies initial climtrigger
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GroundLine
Retre
Thinning
Increasedice flux
Cross-section (plan view)
IPCC AR5 Chapter
trigger
Bed deepens inland
Ice shelf
breakup
(or thinning)
W(h)ither Antarctica?
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Ice shelves are subject to
abrupt collapse
Triggers are poorly
understood Models do not represent
detailed ice-ocean
processes or fracture
Marine ice sheet instability
is possible over large partsof Antarctica
Projection
technique
(RCP8.5)
2100 95%
SLR fro
Antarctica
AR5(lognorm fit) ~10
Expert
elicitation33
Model-
based0-30+
Semi-
empirical 7-26
We are working on frameworks that allows us to manage
this uncertainty in a transparent, updateable manner
Summary: the 21st century
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Very high confidence in at least a continuation of current trends
Regional risk varies, both in magnitude and source
Even apparently “small” changes in mean sea level increase flood risk
Upper bounds remain uncertain and are a strong function of the risk toleran
the decision-maker The possibility of small-scale “threshold” behaviors in Antarctica underlie the tail of sea level rise
projections
Sea level rise (SLR) risk assessment requires a probabilistic, local, inclusiv
and updateable framework
Expected # flood events in
Boston for different design
lifetimes (RCP 8.5)
(historical storm surge
return periods remain
constant)
2001-2050 2001-2100
Flood
event No SLR SLR No SLR SLR
1 in 10 5 19 10 64
1 in 100 0.5 1.6 1 17
And beyond…
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There is a substantial long-term
sea level commitment (~25 feet
for 3.5°C of warming)…
…that is lessened with low
cumulative emissions
Climate Central
Thanks:
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Paul Hall, Scott Turner, EBCNE
Collaborators
NOAA/GFDL
Antarctica’s
bed
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Bed Elevation (m)
deepens
inland
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Glaciers do their
own thing, but
are almostall receding…
Probabilistic LSL projections
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Sea level
components
Probabilistic models Monte-Carlo samp
Continuous ice
sheet distributions
with “tail”
Local probabilistic
representation
Kopp, R.E., D.J. Rasmussen, R.M. Horton, C.M. Little, J.X. Mitrovica, M. Oppenheimer, B.H. Strauss and C. Tebaldi, Earth’s Future (2014
Probabil istic 21st and 22nd century sea-level rise projections at a global network of tide gauge sites.
New York Panel on Climate Change (NPCC) and Structures of Coastal Resi l ience (SCR) projects
And, for the long-term, emissions reductions
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S e a l e v e l
c o
m m i t m e n t ( m )
0
2
4
6
8
2012 2050 2
Year
Modified from Strauss
(2013)
realize
RCP 4.5
commitme
RCP8.5
commitment
This talk has
focused on the
“realized” sea level
change by 2100
There is a
substantial long-
term commitment
on higheremissions
pathways
95th
2000(RCPNortheast US
projections
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Observations Projections
95th
140-1
5th
40-6
P=Providence
B=Battery (NYC)
A=Atlantic City
N=Norfolk
Shading =
90% range
Line = median
projection
What can be done?
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Science: observation and model studies into breakup pr
and Antarctic circulation
Science/Policy: Develop projection and risk assessmen
frameworks
Build resilient, risk-aware coastlines
Developed and less-developed countries
Policy: Remove perverse incentives
Which ice sheets lose mass matters
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Greenland Antarctica
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Local effects 2: vertical land motion
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Are inherently local and result
from many different factors –
earthquakes, anthropogenic and
natural subsidence
In NYC, dominated by GIA
http://xenon.colorado.edu
Sella 2006
Tide gauge evidence for greater-than-global mean SLR
NE heightened
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g
Unfortunately the news is not good (generally) f
Ongoing subsidence (will continue)
Ongoing dynamic sea level rise (may continue)
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Environmental Business Council of New England
Energy Environment Economy
Modeling of Coastal
Impacts
The North Atlantic Coast
Comprehensive Study
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Roselle HennDeputy Director, National Planning Cente
for Coastal Storm Risk Management,
U.S. Army Corps of Engineers
Environmental Business Council of New England
Energy Environment Economy
Comprehensive Study
North Atlantic Coast Comprehensive Study:Resilient Adaptation to Increasing Risk
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US Army Corps of Engineers
BUILDING STRONG ®
US Army Corps of Engineers
BUILDING STRONG ®
Roselle Henn, Deputy Director
National Planning Center for
Coastal Storm Risk ManagementU.S. Army Corps of Engineers
13 May 2016
Outline
Background
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Collaboration and Alignment
Findings
Outcomes
Coastal Storm Risk Management Framework
Technical Products Supporting the Framewor
Opportunities for Coastal Resilience Integration
Summary
74
Background Sandy originated in the
Caribbean on 22 October 20
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75
National Hurricane Center 12 Feb 2013
Caribbean on 22 October 20
Severely impacted Jamaica,
Cuba, Haiti, Dominican Repu
and Cuba, reaching the USA
Atlantic coastline 29 Octobe
In the USA, effects extended
from Florida to Maine, and w
to Great Lakes
States of New Jersey, New Y
and Connecticut greatlyimpacted; NY-NJ Harbor
devastated by catastrophic
Background: Sandy’s Impact in the USA Human
159 lives lost
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500,000 mandatory evacuations
20,000 temporary shelter
Extensive community dislocations
Economic
$65B in damages
650,000 houses damaged/destroyed
Infrastructure: Loss off
Telecommunications, transit
Fuel, power
*US Army Corps of Engineers – Partnered projects
credited with an estimated
$1.9B in damages prevented
76
Background: Public Law 113-2Disaster Relief Appropriations Act 2013
Total Appropriation $47.9B
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77
76%
14%
9%
1% 0%
Construction of flood risk reduction projects
Beach repair and restoration
Repair of navigation channels and structures
Investigations and studies
General expenses
{
pp p $HUD $15.20BDOT $12.42BDHS $11.47B
Background: North Atlantic Coast Comprehensive S
StatusFEMA H. Sandy Impact Data
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Ongoing Sandy Program
Implementation
29 Jan 2013 PL 113-2: … theSecretary shall conduct a
comprehensive study to address
flood risks of vulnerable coastal
populations in areas that were a
by Hurricane Sandy within the
boundaries of the North Atlantic
Division of the Corps…
28 Jan 2015 Final Report pubreleased
78
FEMA H. Sandy Impact Data
Background: North Atlantic Coast Comprehensive S Comprehensive plan to address vulnerable c
communities
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Formalized and consistent approach/framefor more detailed, site specific coastal evalu
Integrates state-of-the-science techniques acollaboration
Equips and links a broad audience and all legovernment with data, tools, and otherstakeholders to make INFORMED coastal rismanagement decisions
NACCS isnot
: A decision document authorizing design andconstruction
A NEPA document evaluating impacts of any spesolution
A USACE-only application
79
www.nad.usace.army.mil/CompStudy
Collaboration and Alignment Agency, Interagency, and Tribal Collaboration
USACE High Level Senior Governance Team/Enterprise Projec
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g / p j
Delivery Team/Strong Project Management
Interagency correspondence/technical working meetings/pan
discussions
Subject Matter Experts embedded in team Federal Register notices and public website
Interagency Webinar Collaboration Series (2013-2014)
Roll Out Webinars for Regional Partners (2 & 9 Feb 2015)
Alignment
President’s Climate Action Plan Sandy Task Force “Hurricane Sandy Rebuilding Strategy”
OMB Legislative Review Memorandum with Federal Agencies
Sandy Regional Infrastructure Resilience Coordination
80
FindingsShared responsibility of all levels of Government and
partnerships
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p p
Rethink approaches to adapting to risk
Resilience and sustainability must consider a combinatioand blend of measures
81
NNBF NATURAL AND NATURE-BASED FEATURES
PROGRAMMATIC MEASURES
STRUCTURAL MEASURESNONSTRUCTURAL MEASURES
Full Array of Coastal Storm Risk Management Measures
Managing coastal storm risk is ashared responsibility
The Framework is:
Coastal Storm Risk Management Framework
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The Framework is: A 9-step process
Customizable for any coastalarea or watershed and otherregions
Repeatable at state and localscales
Who/what is exposed to flood risk?
Where is the flood risk?
What are the appropriate strategiesand measures to reduce flood risk?
What is the relative cost of aparticular strategy compared to the
anticipated risk reduction? What data are available to make risk
informed decisions?
What is the residual risk?
82
Coastal Storm Risk Management FrameworkFuture Scenarios and Flooding Exposure
Population/Infrastructure Density
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83
* USACE Engineer Circular (EC) 1165-2-212** Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change scenario
Socioeconomic Factors and Trends
Ecosystems Adaptive Capacity
Population/Infrastructure Density
Sea level change* evaluated for the years 2018, 2068, 2100** and 211
Coastal Storm Risk Management Framework Risk Management Measures
Structural
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Storm surge barriers
Levees, breakwaters, shoreline
stabilization
Natural and Nature-Based Features(e.g., beaches and dunes, living shorelines,
wetlands, oyster reefs, SAV restoration)
Non-Structural (e.g., floodproofing,
acquisition and relocation, flood warning, etc.)
Programmatic (e.g., floodplain management, land use planning,
State/municipal policy, natural resources, surface water
management, education, flood insurance programs, etc.)
84
Technical Products Supporting the FrameworkMultiple products, planning tools, and models were developed to assist decision m
as they Implement the Coastal Storm Risk Management Framework
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85
Focus on storm winds, waves and water levels for both tropi
Technical Products Supporting the FrameworkRegional Storm Suite Modeling
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, p
and extra-tropical storm events
Provides for a robust, standardized approach to establishingthe risk of coastal communities to future occurrences of sto
events
86
Two-Phased Approach
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• First Phase: SLR/CC Initial Vulnerability Assessment (Lead: Engle)
– New analysis based on existing data
• USACE/NOAA SLC scenarios
• USACE statistical re-analysis of NOAA historical water level measurements
• Initial Vulnerability Assessment using modified CESL tool
– Preliminary risk assessment
– Complete for Draft NACCS, October 2013
• Second Phase: ERDC CSTORM (Lead: Bocamazo, Curtis)
– Modern, risk-based storm climatology: Joint Probability Method (JPM) – Future SLR incorporated into modeling
– Completely updated future storm risk with SLR
Measurement of direct physical effects and their econo
Technical Products Supporting the FrameworkEconomic Depth-Damage Estimation Tool
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Measurement of direct physical effects and their econoconsequences to create depth-damage functions
Assessment of loss of life to estimate depth-fatality
relationships for coastal storms
Development of depth-emergency cost and infrastructdamage relationships
Estimation of second and third order effects (e.g., loss o
labor, economic losses from of power/fuel shortages, me
and physical health effects)
88
Natural and Nature-Based Features Technical Products Supporting the Framewor
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Identify storm resilie
features
Provide tools for ben
evaluation and calculat
of resilience
Integrate nature-bas
features in coastal riskmanagement systems
89
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9 North Atlantic Coast
Focus Areas (NAC FA)
USACE-Sp
Design
Constru
NAC FA New Feasibility Studies
Cost-Shared with Non-Federal Sponsor; Managed as a Regional
Program building on NACCS Findings, Outcomes, and Products
Opportunities: Coastal Resilience Integration
NACCS Products: Geospatial Database; Numerical Modeling of Extreme Water Levels;
E i D th D F ti E i t l d C lt l R C diti
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State
Implementation
of Ongoing & Planned
Reduction
91
Economic Depth-Damage Functions; Environmental and Cultural Resources Conditions
Report; Conceptual Regional Sediment Budget; Vulnerability, Resilience,
Natural and Nature-Based Features Assessment and Metric Development
Strategic
Integration of
Coastal
Investments
2013 2015 2020
Ongoing USACE Activities
*Vulnerability Assessments,
Resilience and Climate Change
Adaptation Planning
*Technical Assistance to States
and installations; Public-Private
Partnership initiatives
*Limited & General Reevaluation
Reports
*Continuing Authorities Program
and Operation & Maintenance
activities
*Flood Control and Coastal
Emergency projects
*National Hurricane Program
Regional Partnerships & Collaboration
Federal Emergency Management Agency(FEMA)
Housing and Urban Development (HUD)
Department of Interior (DOI)
Regional Ocean Councils (States)
Regional Planning Bodies (Federal, States,
and Tribes)
Sandy Regional Infrastructure
Resilience Coordination (SRIRC)
Implementation in other Coastal Regions
Coastal Texas Feasibility Study
South Atlantic Division
North Atlantic Coast
Comprehensive
Study
"Hurricane Sandy brought to light the reality that coastal
storms are intensifying and that sea-level and climate
Summary
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92
storms are intensifying and that sea level and climate
change will only heighten the vulnerability of coastal
communities. Coastal storm risk management is a
shared responsibility, and we believe there should beshared tools used by all decision makers to assess riskand identify solutions. This report provides those tools.”
Brig. Gen. Kent D. Savre
Commanding General
U.S. Army Corps of EngineersNorth Atlantic Division
Sea Level Rise & Storm Modeling
in Massachusetts
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Kirk BosmaTeam Leader/Coastal Engineer,
Woods Hole Group
Environmental Business Council of New England
Energy Environment Economy
EBC Climate Change Program Series – Part One
May 13, 2016
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Preparing for Sea Level
Rise and Climate Change
at a Community and
Individual Asset Scale
Kirk F. Bosma, P.E.
Project Overview
The Central Artery is a critical link in regional transportation and a vitally
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Project Team:
Kirk Bosma, Woods Hole Group, Inc. Ellen Douglas, Paul Kirshen, and Chris Watson, UMass BostonSteven Miller and Katherin McArthur, MassDOT
1. What is the probabilityof flooding?
2. What is vulnerableand what is thepriority?
3. What interventions areavailable and what isthe plan?
y g p yimportant asset in the Boston metropolitan area.
Probability of flooding options
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• FEMA is only backward looking• Only considers “100-year” storm • Region I does not use dynamic modeling• Transect based analysis
Probability of flooding options
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• Inundation maps based on standard “bathtub” model donot reflect dynamic nature of coastal flooding
• Does not account for joint flooding conditions• Does not include effects of infrastructure (e.g., dams)• Does not account for tides
Probability of flooding options
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• Worst possible scenario for emergency planning (worststorm at MHW)…no associated risk planning
• Coarse modeling domain results in local inaccuracies• Does not include impacts of waves• Errors are relatively large (+/- 20%)• Just hurricanes
Why existing maps were not good enough
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– Includes relevant physical processes (tides, storm surge, wind, wavewave setup, river discharge, sea level rise, future climate scenarios)
Hi-Res Hydrodynamic Modeling
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p, g , , )
• Currents• Storm Surge• Tides
• Water Levels• Winds• SLR• Discharge• Infrastructure
• Waves• Wave Setup
Charles RiverDam
Amelia Earhart Dam
Regional Grid Requirements
Grid covers a large regional area (North Atlantic) to capture large-scale storm(hurricane nor’easter) dynamics
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(hurricane, nor easter) dynamics.
Unstructured Grid
Varying resolution with high resolutioni f i t t
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in areas of interest
Boston Grid
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Focus Areas
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Using Projections to Bracket Risk
X
4
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Parris et al. (2012)
U. S. National ClimateAssessment.
X4
X3
X2
X1
• 3a
2100
• 2a
2070
1a•
2030
X52050
Storm Climatology - Hurricanes Monte Carlo simulations,
using a large statisticallyrobust set of storms
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(Emanuel, et al., 2006) and aphysics based approach
Present and future climatechange scenarios
Simulates storms (bothhurricane and nor’easter)combined with SLR andprecipitation
• A Large Statistically robset of storms.
• No need to determine joprobabilities.
Model Calibration – Blizzard of ‘78
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Model Validation – Perfect Storm
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Example Results – Winds
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Example Results - Hurricane
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Exceedance Probability Maps
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Depth of Inundation Maps
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Example Assessment
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7.33 hrs
LOCAL
LOCAL
Example Assessment
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10.0 hrs
LOCAL
LOCAL
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18-21”
6-9”
Flood Pathways
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Flood Pathways
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Flood Pathways
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Flood Pathways
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Local Community Assessment
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Time Variable Accretion
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Plum Island,
MA
Hein et al., 2012 (Marine Geology)
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Summary1. This model approach provides high-
resolution flooding results for projectedclimate change scenarios.
https://www.massdot.state.ma.us/highway/Departments/EnvmentalServices/EMSSustainabilityUnit/Sustainability.aspx
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2. Peer-reviewed by WHOI, USGS, NOAA,USACE, and USEPA.
3. Includes relevant processes, storm types,and joint probabilities.
4. Provides realistic probability basedresults that can be more effectively usedto assess vulnerabilities and provideplanning prioritization.
5. The model can be used to test various
adaptation and engineering options,connected to ecological, pipedinfrastructure, and economic models.
6. The model is currently being extended tothe entire coastline of Massachusetts,with time varying topography.
NETWORKING BREAK
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Environmental Business Council of New England
Energy Environment Economy
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Environmental Business Council of New England
Energy Environment Economy
Implications
Implications for CoastalEcosystems
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Pam DiBona
Executive Director
Massachusetts Bays National Estuary
Program (MassBays)
Environmental Business Council of New England
Energy Environment Economy
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Pam DiBon
Executive Directo
Massachusetts Bays National Estuary Program
Multiple mandates… President’s Climate Action Plan
Develop Actionable Climate ScienceA Cli Ch I i h U S
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Assess Climate Change Impacts in the U.S. Launch Climate Data Initiative
Third National Climate Assessment U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP) to “assist the Nation
and the world to understand, assess, predict, and respond to human-induced and natural processes of global change.”
National Ocean Policy Priority Objectives Ecosystem-based management
Resiliency and adaptation to climate change and ocean acidification
U.S. EPA Climate Ready Estuaries Program National Estuary Program-focused technical and grant assistance NEP test cases and innovations generate best practices and lessons
learned for others
Many views…
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Some measures
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Frequency and magnitude
of coastal storm damages M B illi 2014$
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$82• 1978-Feb• 1987-Jan
$172• 1991-Aug• 1991-Oct• 1992-Dec
$10• 2001-Mar• 2003-Jan• 2007-Apr
$26• 2010-Dec• 2012-Oct• 2013-Feb• 2013-Mar
?
MassBays, millions, 2014$
Source: MA CZM, based on National Flood Insurance Program Claims, 1978-present
Mean sea surface temperature
1 DEG C per 100 yr1880-2005
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T e m p e r
a t u r e a n o m a l y ( D e g .
C )
Shearman and Lentz, 2010
Water temp
Stratification
Primaryproductivity
American lobster, 1968-2014
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Source: Northeast Fisheries Service biennial trawling data,http://nefsc.noaa.gov/ecosys/spatial-analyses/
8
9
Cold-water Species Richness Tren
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0
1
2
3
4
56
7
8
Year
Cold Temperates Linear (Cold Temperates)
CT DEEP, Marine Fisheries Division, Spring Indices
Source: LIS Spring Trawl Survey
12
Warm-water Species Richness Tren
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0
2
4
6
8
10
1 9 8
4
1 9 8
6
1 9 8
8
1 9 9
0
1 9 9
2
1 9 9
4
1 9 9
6
1 9 9
8
2 0 0
0
2 0 0
2
2 0 0
4
2 0 0
6
2 0 0
8
2 0 1
0
2 0 1
2
Year
Warm Temperates Linear (Warm Temperates)
CT DEEP, Marine Fisheries Division, Fall Indices
Source: LIS Spring Trawl Survey
New Species, 2007-2013
Photo: L. Green
Species Taxonomic Group
Colpomenia peregrina Phaeophyceae (Brown alga)
Pyropia yezoensis Rhodophyta (Red Alga)
H i h i
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Photo: I. Bárbara
Photo: A. Gittenbe
Ph
Heterosiphonia
japonica 1Rhodophyta (Red Alga)
Lomentaria orcadensis Rhodophyta (Red Alga)
Lomentaria clavellosa Rhodophyta (Red Alga)
Bugula simplex 2 Bryozoa
Conopeum seurati Bryozoa
Tricellaria inopinata Bryozoa
Clytia linearis 3 Hydroid
Melita palmata 3 Amphipod
Ianiropsis serricaudis4 Isopod
Palaemon elegans European shrimp
Photo: A. Gittenberger
1Result from outside RAS survey2Previously classified as cryptogenic3Establishment unknown4Previously identified to genus level only
Photo: H. Hillewaert
Source: Office of Coastal Zone Management
Current research and assessment
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Marsh migration & changes in hydrology
Eelgrass mapping for carbon storage estimates
Persistence of an invasive species
Sea level rise impact on Cape Cod’s aquifer
Coastal acidification
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ScopeTransport and erosion of
Great Marsh Hydrogeologic Modeling
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Transport and erosion ofsediments, including:
• barrier beach erosion• channel infilling• marsh accretion
Salinity movement, relevant to:• invasive species control• native Plant Restoration
GoalIdentify future sediment andsalinity management options
Baseline eelgrass
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g
mapping
Persistence of an invasive specie
Time period Totalcollected
CPUE Ratio femalmale
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Spring 2014 1384 0 to 215 2
Summer 2014 4762 34 to 572 3
Fall 2014 1720 15 to 226 1
Spring 2015 127 0 to 57 1
Summer 2015 706 1-128 3.5
Fall 2015 1390 0 to 126 2
Impact of sea level rise
on Cape Cod’s aquifer Goals
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Model effects of sea level rise (2’, 4’,
6’) on groundwater (e.g., water table,stream flows, freshwater-saltwaterinterface).
Evaluate impacts on water, wetlands,septic systems/wastewatermanagement, stormwatermanagement, and infrastructure.
Develop and share recommendedadaptation measures.
Coastal acidification monitoring & impassessment
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Source: Gledhill et al., 2015
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Where next?
Integrated Sentinel Network for Monitoring
Change in Northeastern U.S. Ocean and Coast
Ecosystems (ISMN)
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Vision
An adaptive sentinel monitoring and data management program thatinforms researchers, managers and the public about ecosystem status a
vulnerabilities, and supports an integrated, ecosystem-basedmanagement framework for adaptive responses to climate change andrelated ecosystem pressures.
Goal
To improve our ability to detect and understand the causes of long-termchange in the composition, structure, and function of Northeastern U.and Canadian maritime coastal and ocean ecosystems.
NE sentinel monitoring scope
Pelagic: water column
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Estuarine/nearshorehead of tide to coastal
ocean
g
10 meters to offshore
Benthic covers ocean
floor from high tideto canyons
Sentinel indicators: consensus definitio
Sentinel
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A habitat, (abiotic) condition or process, or a species, population or
community; its change in state or condition indicates some aspect of
ecosystem change (good or bad).
Indicator
A metric that provides information about the direction of change in
the state or condition of a Sentinel.
Final science and implementation pla
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Available online: http://www.neracoos.org/sentinelmonitoring
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Jan Greenwood
Implications for WastewaterInfrastructure
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Jan Greenwood
Vice President
Woodard and Curran
Environmental Business Council of New England
Energy Environment Economy
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Preparing For Climate Chang
Statewide Cooperation at Rhode Island’sWastewater Treatment Facilities
Jan Greenwood, PE - Woodard & Curran
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State of R
Annual Precipitation at Providence, RI
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Wastewater Treatment Facility Vulnerability
WWTFs and pump stations
are built in low lying areas
This subjects the infrastructure
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This subjects the infrastructure
to coastal and riverine
inundation
Structures, wet wells, open
tanks, equipment, and staff
Overflows discharge intoadjacent surface waters
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State of Rhode Island
State of Rhode Island
State of RhState of Rhode
Long Term Planning
RIDEM’s Statewide Approach for Long Term Planning
of Major Modifications to WWTFs
RIDEM formed a collaborative partnership with the
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p p
Division of Planning and the RI Bays, Rivers, andWatershed Coordination Team, the CRMC, and local
communities
Developed a project to improve WWTF reliability under
changing climate conditions:
Statewide assessment of 19 wastewater treatmentfacilities and major collection components
Identify vulnerabilities
Identify short-term and long-term adaptive strategies
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Five-Step Project Approach
Project Approach
Step 1: Climate change science and potential
for impacts in Rhode Island
Step 2 Preliminar assessment of climate
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Step 2: Preliminary assessment of climate
change impacts to RI WWTFs
Step 3: Refined risk assessment of impacts
on wastewater infrastructure
Step 4: Development of recommendations
for adaptive strategies
Step 5: Final project report and outreach materials
Step 1: Climate Change Science & Potential for Impacts in Rho
Warmer “feel like” temperatures
Rising Sea Levels
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Enhanced warming of surface ocean
Increased heavy precipitation
Greaterlikelihood of
intense
hurricanes
Sources (clockwise): Bend er et al., 2010; Frumhoff et al. 2007; Pariss et al., 2012, Melillo et al., 2014; EPA, 2014
Step 2: Preliminary Assessment of Climate Change Impacts to Rhod
1. Data Collection From Facility Operators 2. Statewide Modeli
US Army C
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Composite storm set
Step 2: Preliminary Assessment
FacilityLocation on
FEMA FIRMValue Hazard History Value
Documented losses and
costs since 2009Value Value
Infrastructu
Inundation
East Providence WWTF Within V Zone 3 More than 3 since 2009 3 Major Repairs 3 0Greater than 50% system cap5-ft scenario
Warren United Water Within V Zone 3 2-3 since 2009 2 None 1 0Greater than 50% system cap5-ft scenario
Cranston WPCF Within A Zone 2 2-3 since 2009 2 Major Repairs 3 0Between 10% and 50% systemunder 5-ft scenario
Quonset Development Corporation Within V Zone 3 1 or less since 2009 1 None 1 0Greater than 50% system cap5-ft scenario
B i t l WWTF 1 2 3 2009 2 3 0Between10%and50% system
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Bristol WWTF Within X Zone 1 2-3 since 2009 2 Major Repairs 3 0Between 10% and 50% systemunder 5-ft scenario
East Greenwich WWTF Within A Zone 2 1 or less since 2009 1 None 1 0 Greater than 50% system cap5-ft scenario
West Warwick Regional WWTF Within A Zone 2 1 or less since 2009 1 Major Repairs 3 0Greater than 50% system cap5-ft scenario
NBC Bucklin Point WWTF Within X Zone 1 1 or less since 2009 1 None 1 0Greater than 50% system cap5-ft scenario
NBC Fields Point WWTF Within X Zone 1 1 or less since 2009 1 None 1 0Greater than 50% system cap
5-ft scenario
Newport WWTF Within X Zone 1 More than 3 since 2009 3 None 1 0Between 10% and 50% system
under 5-ft scenario
Warwick Sewer Authority Within X Zone 1 1 or less since 2009 1 Major Repairs 3 0Between 10% and 50% systemunder 5-ft scenario
Westerly United Water Within X Zone 1 2-3 since 2009 2 Major Repairs 3 0Less than 10% system capacit5-ft scenario
Jamestown Sewer Division Within X Zone 1 2-3 since 2009 2 MiscellaneousExpenses 2 0Less than 10% system capacit5-ft scenario
Narragansett WWTF Within V Zone 3 2-3 since 2009 2 None 1 0Less than 10% system capacit5-ft scenario
South Kingstown Regional WWTF Within X Zone 1 2-3 since 2009 2 None 1 0Between 10% and 50% systemunder 5-ft scenario
Woonsocket WWTF Within X Zone 1 1 or less since 2009 1 Major Repairs 3 0Less than 10% system capacit5-ft scenario
Burrillville WWTF Within A Zone 2 1 or less since 2009 1 None 1 0Less than 10% system capacit
5-ft scenario
New Shoreham Sewer Division Within X Zone 1 1 or less since 2009 1 None 1 0Less than 10% system capacit
5-ft scenario
Smithfield Veolia Water Within X Zone 1 1 or less since 2009 1 None 1 0Less than 10% system capacit5-ft scenario
Step 2: Preliminary Assessment
5
Rhode Island WWTF Prioritization
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2
1 1
3 3
2
5 6 7 8 9 10 11 1
Facility Score Based on Matrix Criteria
Step 2: Preliminary Assessment
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Step 3: Refined Risk Assessment
Evaluate risk and
impacts of failure
to facility systems
Pro
DAging
E
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Prioritize systems,structures, and
components requiring
adaptive measures
Proc
Headw
Infrastructure
E
O&M Issues
Future
Regulations
Sea Level
Rise
Sea L
Step 4: Recommendations for Adaptive Strategies
Upgrades
Relocation
Protective barriers
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Protective barriers
New access routes
Photos: Kennebunk Sewer District Berm,
Warwick Protective Berm & Emergency
Generator (Warren, RI)
Step 5: Outreach
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State of Rhode Is
Cooperative Project Execution
State
Agencies Academic
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Agencies
Private
Consultants
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Shoreline Change Assessment
Shoreline Change Inputs Statewide LiDAR digital elevation mode
Projected sea level change on 25-, 50-,
Historic shoreline data mapped by USG
Rates of erosion/accretion at shore norm
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100-yr shoreline change - Narragansett
Shoreline Change Output
GIS files of projected changes in shorelineorientation at various time horizons
Results computed for select coastal
reaches (plant locations)
Coastal Hazard Assessment
Identified WWTF
infrastructure at risk to
inundation by storm surge
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and SLR Coastal climate change
impacts to
8 WWTFs
24 Pump stations
Wave Hazard Assessment
Wave Height Analysis for Flood Insurance Studies (WHAFIS)
predictions for total water level at 8 WWTFs (19 transects)
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Inland Flood Assessment
Identified base flood elevations (BFEs) for inland waterways a
expanded floodplain boundaries for 2 feet and 3 feet increase
Federal Flood Risk Management Standards (FFRMS)
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Identified 6 WWTFs
at risk to inundation
by inland flooding
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Conclusions
Conclusions
Expanded statewide coastal hazard
assessment tools available online
Significantly improved accuracy of
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statewide inland flooding potential
Statewide collaboration and data
sharing is helping:
RI WWTFs
Communities
Other State Agencies
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Thank You!
Panel Discussion
Moderator: Scott Turner, Nitsch Engineering
• Sai Ravela, MIT/WindRiskTech
• Christopher Little, AER
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• Roselle Henn, U.S. Army Corps of Engineers
• Kirk Bosma, Woods Hole Group
• Pam DiBona, MassBays
• Jan Greenwood, Woodard and Curran
Environmental Business Council of New England
Energy Environment Economy
EBC Climate Change Program Series:
Part One – The Science, Modeling,
and Implications of Climate
Change for Coastal New England
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