Goldman Stanley
Goldman Stanley, Inc.
Confidential Draft
Project Aardvark
Presentation to the Board of Directors
January 29, 2010
Goldman Stanley
Table Of Contents
Executive Summary 3
Aardvark Valuation 5
Potential Acquisitions 11
Process Recommendations 16
Appendix 19
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Goldman Stanley
Executive Summary
• As of January 29, 2010, Aardvark’s share price and valuation are at all-time highs, having more than doubled since early 2009
• As Aardvark’s stock price has soared in value, it has also generated over $35B in cash & cash-equivalents
• As Aardvark’s cash balance grows, it is likely to face shareholder pressure to re-invest the cash in its business and to make significant acquisitions
• Given Aardvark’s strong currency and cash balance, it could easily make several “tuck-in” acquisitions – or larger-scale acquisitions to acquire customers
• Such a strategy would allow Aardvark to capture more of the smartphone, laptop, and desktop markets, and significantly improve its software offerings
• Given Aardvark’s cash position, such acquisitions could be made with 100% cash – or in the case of a larger deal, stock could also be used
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Goldman Stanley
Valuation Summary
• Aardvark’s current share price of $192.61 far exceeds the value implied by comparable public companies
• Recent comparable transactions show higher implied valuation ranges due to flurry of consolidation and hardware M&A activity over 2009
• Discounted Cash Flow Analysis under base-case assumptions shows implied valuation on-par with Aardvark’s current share price, implying that share price is justified
• All valuation analysis is based on “base-case” financial projections in line with Wall Street analyst expectations
• Given Aardvark’s cash balance and high valuation multiples vs. similar public companies, few competitors are well-positioned to make substantial acquisitions
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Goldman Stanley
Aardvark Valuation Summary
7
$0.00 $100.00 $200.00 $300.00 $400.00 $500.00 $600.00 $700.00
Forward EV / EBITDA:
Trailing EV / EBITDA:
Forward EV / Revenue:
Trailing EV / Revenue:
2010E P / E:
2009 P / E:
2010E EV / EBITDA:
2009 EV / EBITDA:
2010E EV / Revenue:
2009 EV / Revenue:
Min to 25th
25th to Median
Median to 75th
75th to Max
Public Company Comparables(1)(2)
Precedent Transactions(1)
Discounted Cash Flow Analysis
11-15% Discount Rate, 5-9x Terminal Multiple:
(1) EBITDA excludes stock-based compensation and non-recurring charges.(2) Financial data as of January 29, 2010.
($ in Millions Except Per Share Data)
Goldman Stanley
Aardvark Comparable Public Companies
Comparable Public Companies – Operating Metrics(1)
Comparable Public Companies – Valuation Multiples(1)(2)
8% 8%
18%22%
(6%)
25%
14%
7%
29%
39%
4%
31%
(10.0%)(5.0%)
0.0%5.0%
10.0%15.0%20.0%25.0%30.0%35.0%40.0%45.0%
2010E Revenue Growth
2009A EBITDA Margin
7.6 x
4.4 x
10.6 x
7.3 x
11.5 x10.7 x
6.8 x
3.7 x
8.4 x
5.1 x 5.5 x
8.6 x
0.0 x
2.0 x
4.0 x
6.0 x
8.0 x
10.0 x
12.0 x
14.0 x
2009 EBITDA Multiple
2010E EBITDA Multiple
8(1) EBITDA excludes stock-based compensation and non-recurring charges.(2) Financial data as of January 29, 2010.
($ in Millions Except Per Share Data)
US-Based Hardware & Networking Companies with Over $20 Billion Revenue
Goldman Stanley
Aardvark Precedent Transactions
Aardvark - Comparable M&A Transactions Operating Metrics Valuation MultiplesEV / EV / EV / EV /
Equity Enterprise Trailing Forward Trailing Forward Trailing Forward Trailing Forward
Acquirer Name Target Name Date Value Value Revenue Revenue EBITDA(1) EBITDA(1) Revenue Revenue EBITDA(1) EBITDA(1)
Hewlett-Packard Company 3Com 11/11/2009 3,180$ 2,714$ 1,265$ 1,223$ 152$ 110$ 2.1 x 2.2 x 17.8 x 24.6 xCisco Systems, Inc. Starent Networks 10/13/2009 2,777 2,386 288 320 154 110 8.3 x 7.5 x 15.5 x 21.6 xEmerson Electric Co. Avocent 10/6/2009 1,114 1,147 611 542 105 93 1.9 x 2.1 x 10.9 x 12.3 xEMC Corporation Data Domain 7/8/2009 2,362 2,085 301 375 53 64 6.9 x 5.6 x 39.7 x 32.8 xOracle Corporation Sun Microsystems 4/20/2009 7,075 5,392 13,256 12,462 623 559 0.4 x 0.4 x 8.7 x 9.6 xBrocade Communication Systems, Inc. Foundry Networks 7/21/2008 2,899 2,063 621 633 156 125 3.3 x 3.3 x 13.2 x 16.5 x
Maximum 7,075$ 5,392$ 13,256$ 12,462$ 623$ 559$ 8.3 x 7.5 x 39.7 x 32.8 x75th Percentile 3,110 2,632 1,104 1,075 155 121 6.0 x 5.0 x 17.3 x 23.9 x
Median 2,838$ 2,235$ 616$ 587$ 153$ 110$ 2.7 x 2.7 x 14.4 x 19.1 x25th Percentile 2,466 2,068 378 417 117 97 1.9 x 2.1 x 11.5 x 13.4 x
Minimum 1,114 1,147 288 320 53 64 0.4 x 0.4 x 8.7 x 9.6 x
9(1) Excludes stock-based compensation and non-recurring charges.
Networking & Hardware M&A Transactions Over $1 Billion with US-Based Sellers Since January 1, 2008
($ in Millions Except Per Share Data)
Goldman Stanley
Aardvark Discounted Cash Flow Analysis
DCF Assumptions:
Discount Rate: 12.5%
Terminal EBITDA Multiple: 7.0 x
Model Uses “Base Case” Financial Projections
Mid-Year Convention Used For PV Of Cash Flows
Aardvark - Cash Flow ProjectionsFY 2010E FY 2011E FY 2012E FY 2013E FY 2014E
Revenue: $53,631 62,749$ 69,651$ 75,919$ 81,234$ EBITDA: $16,480 19,282$ 21,403$ 23,329$ 24,962$ Operating Income: $14,635 17,133$ 19,030$ 20,761$ 22,218$
Less: Taxes ($4,391) ($5,140) ($5,709) ($6,228) ($6,665)
Plus: Depreciation $918 $1,073 $1,192 $1,299 $1,390Plus: Amortization $40 $37 $28 $13 $10Plus: Stock-Based Compensation $888 $1,038 $1,153 $1,256 $1,344
Less: Increase in Working Capital: $2,136 $1,815 $1,374 $1,248 $1,058Less: Capital Expenditures ($1,430) ($1,673) ($1,857) ($2,024) ($2,166)
Unlevered Free Cash Flow $12,795 14,284$ 15,211$ 16,324$ 17,189$ Present Value of Free Cash Flow $12,064 11,971$ 11,332$ 10,811$ 10,119$
Aardvark - Net Present Value Sensitivity - Terminal EBITDA MultiplesDiscount Rate
204.96$ 10.0% 11.0% 12.0% 13.0% 14.0% 15.0% 16.0%4.0 x 170.39$ 165.99$ 161.81$ 157.83$ 154.03$ 150.40$ 146.95$ 5.0 x 187.23$ 182.09$ 177.20$ 172.54$ 168.11$ 163.88$ 159.86$ 6.0 x 204.06$ 198.18$ 192.59$ 187.26$ 182.19$ 177.37$ 172.77$ 7.0 x 220.90$ 214.27$ 207.97$ 201.98$ 196.28$ 190.85$ 185.68$ 8.0 x 237.74$ 230.37$ 223.36$ 216.70$ 210.36$ 204.33$ 198.59$ 9.0 x 254.58$ 246.46$ 238.75$ 231.42$ 224.44$ 217.81$ 211.50$ Te
rmin
al E
BITD
A M
ultip
le
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($ in Millions Except Per Share Data)
Goldman Stanley
Potential Acquisitions
• Given Aardvark’s large cash balance, it could make a wide variety of acquisitions – ranging from small “tuck-in” deals to acquire technology and IP to larger deals driven by customer or market share acquisition
• Tier 1 Potential Acquisitions
“Tier 1” acquisition candidates are worth over $1 billion and would significantly boost Aardvark’s market share or result in substantial revenue or cost synergies
Leading candidates include ARM, for its chipset technology and integration with Aardvark’s existing products, and Research in Motion – to capture additional share in the corporate smartphone market
• Tier 2 Potential Acquisitions
“Tier 2” acquisition candidates are worth less than $1 billion and would enhance Aardvark’s core technology and fill in gaps in existing products
Potential acquisitions include specialized chipset and semiconductor companies as well as Web 2.0, social media, and mobile software companies
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Goldman Stanley
Potential Acquisition Candidates
Tier 1 Acquisition Candidates
Tier 2 Acquisition Candidates
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Goldman Stanley
Company Profile: ARM
ARM Holdings is a supplier of semiconductor intellectual property and components of digital electronic products. It designs and licenses intellectual property rather than manufacturing and selling semiconductor chips, and it licenses its IP to a wide network of hardware, mobile, and networking companies. It also provides tools to optimize system-on-chip designs.
Products:
•Processors – ARM provides 32-bit embedded microprocessors based on a common architecture that delivers high-performance, power efficiency, and reduced system cost.•System IP – Serves as the connection between processors, memory, and peripherals to ensure optimum performance.•Multimedia – ARM provides graphics processors that enable embedded graphics, audio, and video applications. •Physical IP – Provides SoC integrated circuits and logic, embedded memory, and interface IP.•Tools – ARM subsidiaries provide compilers, debuggers, simulators, and other optimization tools for a wide variety of chip and processor families.
Key Partners:
Electronic Arts, LSI Logic, Microsoft, National Semiconductor, Nokia, NVIDIA, Rambus, Real Networks, Samsung, and Toshiba.
0.02.04.06.08.010.012.014.016.018.020.0
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$50.00
$100.00
$150.00
$200.00
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14(1) Financial data as of January 29, 2010.
Headquarters: Cambridge, UKEmployees: 1700Founded: 1990
Market Cap: $2.5BCash: $204M2009 Revenue: $490M2009 EPS: $7.852010E Revenue: $531M2010E EPS: $10.97
Warren East CEOTudor Brown PresidentGraham Budd COOMike Muller CTOTim Score CFOJohn Cornish EVP, SystemsIan Drew EVP, MarketingAntonio Viana EVP, Sales
ARM Holdings
Financial Information(1):
Management Team:
Goldman Stanley
Company Profile: Research In Motion
Research In Motion designs the BlackBerry smartphone and creates solutions for the worldwide mobile communications market, including a variety of software for the BlackBerry device. In addition to its line of BlackBerry devices, the company also provides enterprise server software to support businesses using the device.
Products:
•BlackBerry Pearl 3G – Provides Trackpad and dedicated media keys as well as SureType technology and 3G network support.•BlackBerry Bold – Provides extended battery life as well as GPS, Wi-Fi, and 3G network support.•BlackBerry Curve 8500 – Includes Trackpad and dedicated media keys, easy media sharing, and 2.0 MP camera.•BlackBerry Tour 9630 – Provides GPS, worldwide compatibility, and 3.2 MP camera.•BlackBerry Storm – Features Wi-Fi, SurePress technology, and 3G network support.•BlackBerry Curve 8900 – Features thin, lightweight design as well as GPS and Wi-Fi support and 3.2 MP camera.
Key Partners:
AT&T, Brightstar, Digital China, GPXS, Hewlett-Packard, IBM, Skype, Sprint, Tata Indicom, T-Mobile, Verizon, Virgin, and Vodafone,
0.010.020.030.040.050.060.070.080.090.0100.0
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15(1) Financial data as of January 29, 2010.
Headquarters: Waterloo, ONEmployees: 12,000Founded: 1984
Market Cap: $36BCash: $2.5B2009 Revenue: $13B2009 EPS: $3.702010E Revenue: $17B2010E EPS: $5.03
Jim Balsillie Co-CEOMike Lazaridis Co-CEODon Morrison COORobin Bienfait CIOBrian Bidulka CFODavid Yach CTO
Research In Motion
Financial Information(1):
Management Team:
Goldman Stanley
Key Recommendations
• We recommend engaging in targeted discussions with the Tier 1 acquisition candidates and assessing their receptiveness to M&A discussions
• At the same time, Goldman Stanley will reach out to Tier 2 candidates and introduce Aardvark as a potential acquirer
• M&A process with Tier 1 candidates will take significantly longer due to the scale of the companies, so we recommend conducting both processes simultaneously
• Depending on responses from Tier 1 and Tier 2 candidates, Goldman Stanley and Aardvark may do additional research to determine other potential acquisitions and then approach them
Targeted Buy-Side M&A Broad Buy-Side M&A
< 5 parties 10 – 100 companies
6 months to 1 year Time required is highly variable
Close-ended Iterative process
Higher success probability Lower success probability
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Goldman Stanley
Specialized Negotiations With One
Party
Highly TargetedProcess
• Combination of targeted discussions plus broader search conducted in background maximizes success probability and minimizes disruption to Aardvark
• Additional parties contacted depend on responsiveness of Tier 1 and Tier 2 companies
• Interested parties would sign NDAs and then proceed into due diligence and valuation discussions with Aardvark
RECOMMENDED
Process Recommendation
BroadMarketing
Broad M&A ProcessTargeted
Discussions + Broader Search
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Goldman Stanley
Aardvark Projected Income Statement
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Income StatementFY 2007 FY 2008 FY 2009 FY 2010E FY 2011E FY 2012E FY 2013E FY 2014E
Revenue: $24,578 $37,491 $42,905 $53,631 $62,749 $69,651 $75,919 $81,234Cost of Goods Sold: $16,282 $24,049 $25,324 $31,655 $37,037 $41,111 $44,811 $47,948
Gross Profit: $8,296 $13,442 $17,581 $21,976 $25,712 $28,540 $31,109 $33,286Operating Expenses:
Research & Development: $596 $759 $830 $1,038 $1,214 $1,348 $1,469 $1,572Selling, General & Administrative: $2,724 $3,345 $3,566 $4,458 $5,216 $5,789 $6,311 $6,752
Total Operating Expenses: $3,320 $4,103 $4,397 $5,496 $6,430 $7,137 $7,780 $8,324
Depreciation & Amortization of PP&E: $327 $496 $734 $918 $1,073 $1,192 $1,299 $1,390Amortization of Intangibles: $0 $0 $0 $40 $37 $28 $13 $10Stock-Based Compensation: $242 $516 $710 $888 $1,038 $1,153 $1,256 $1,344
Operating Income: $4,407 $8,327 $11,740 $14,635 $17,133 $19,030 $20,761 $22,218Interest Income: $647 $653 $407 $424 $568 $1,443 $1,780 $3,223Interest Expense: $0 $0 $0 ($45) ($90) ($90) ($90) ($90)Other Income & Expense: ($48) ($33) ($81) $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
Pre-Tax Income: $5,006 $8,947 $12,066 $15,014 $17,610 $20,383 $22,450 $25,351Income Tax Provision: $1,511 $2,828 $3,831 $4,504 $5,283 $6,115 $6,735 $7,605
Net Income: $3,495 $6,119 $8,235 $10,510 $12,327 $14,268 $15,715 $17,746
Earnings Per Share (EPS): $3.93 $6.78 $9.08 $11.59 $13.59 $15.73 $17.33 $19.56Diluted Shares Outstanding: 889,292 902,139 907,005 907,005 907,005 907,005 907,005 907,005
EBIT(1): $4,649 $8,843 $12,450 $15,523 $18,171 $20,183 $22,017 $23,562
EBITDA(1): $4,976 $9,339 $13,184 $16,480 $19,282 $21,403 $23,329 $24,962Levered Free Cash Flow: $4,735 $8,505 $10,311 $13,061 $14,618 $16,158 $17,507 $19,382Book Value Per Share (BV): $24.17 $34.56 $47.17 $61.94 $78.98 $97.70 $118.76
(1) Excludes stock-based compensation and non-recurring charges.
($ in Millions Except Per Share Data)
Goldman Stanley
Operating Statistics Capitalization Projected
Share Equity Enterprise Revenue EBITDA(2) EPS Revenue EBITDA Margin(2)
Company Name Price(1) Value Value 2009 2010E 2009 2010E 2009 2010E Growth(3) 2009 2010EHewlett-Packard Company 47.07$ 114,779$ 124,430$ 114,552$ 124,179$ 16,433$ 18,186$ 3.14$ 3.87$ 8.4% 14.3% 14.6%Dell Inc. 12.90 25,241 15,080 51,430 55,380 3,426 4,129 0.79 1.18 7.7% 6.7% 7.5%Cisco Systems, Inc. 22.47 131,739 106,671 34,807 41,163 10,076 12,774 0.97 1.38 18.3% 28.9% 31.0%Intel Corporation 19.40 107,224 92,786 32,784 39,941 12,708 18,332 0.41 1.17 21.8% 38.8% 45.9%Motorola, Inc. 6.15 14,239 10,665 23,457 22,056 926 1,927 (1.70) 0.14 (6.0%) 3.9% 8.7%
Maximum 47.07$ 131,739$ 124,430$ 114,552$ 124,179$ 16,433$ 18,332$ 3.14$ 3.87$ 21.8% 38.8% 45.9%75th Percentile 22.47 114,779 106,671 51,430 55,380 12,708 18,186 0.97 1.38 18.3% 28.9% 31.0%Median 19.40$ 107,224$ 92,786$ 34,807$ 41,163$ 10,076$ 12,774$ 0.79$ 1.18$ 8.4% 14.3% 14.6%25th Percentile 12.90 25,241 15,080 32,784 39,941 3,426 4,129 0.41 1.17 7.7% 6.7% 8.7%Minimum 6.15 14,239 10,665 23,457 22,056 926 1,927 (1.70) 0.14 (6.0%) 3.9% 7.5%
Aardvark 192.06$ 176,796$ 141,401$ $42,905 53,631$ $13,184 $16,480 $9.08 11.59$ 25.0% 30.7% 30.7%
Valuation Statistics Capitalization Enterprise Value / Enterprise Value /
Share Equity Enterprise Revenue EBITDA(2) P / E Multiple
Company Name Price(1) Value Value 2009 2010E 2009 2010E 2009 2010EHewlett-Packard Company 47.07$ 114,779$ 124,430$ 1.1 x 1.0 x 7.6 x 6.8 x 15.0 x 12.2 xDell Inc. 12.90 25,241 15,080 0.3 x 0.3 x 4.4 x 3.7 x 16.4 x 10.9 xCisco Systems, Inc. 22.47 131,739 106,671 3.1 x 2.6 x 10.6 x 8.4 x 23.1 x 16.3 xIntel Corporation 19.40 107,224 92,786 2.8 x 2.3 x 7.3 x 5.1 x 47.2 x 16.6 xMotorola, Inc. 6.15 14,239 10,665 0.5 x 0.5 x 11.5 x 5.5 x NM 44.6 x
Maximum 47.07$ 131,739$ 124,430$ 3.1 x 2.6 x 11.5 x 8.4 x 47.2 x 44.6 x75th Percentile 22.47 114,779 106,671 2.8 x 2.3 x 10.6 x 6.8 x 29.1 x 16.6 xMedian 19.40$ 107,224$ 92,786$ 1.1 x 1.0 x 7.6 x 5.5 x 19.7 x 16.3 x25th Percentile 12.90 25,241 15,080 0.5 x 0.5 x 7.3 x 5.1 x 16.1 x 12.2 xMinimum 6.15 14,239 10,665 0.3 x 0.3 x 4.4 x 3.7 x 15.0 x 10.9 x
Aardvark 192.06$ 176,796$ 141,401$ 3.3 x 2.6 x 10.7 x 8.6 x 21.2 x 16.6 x
21(1) Share prices as of January 29, 2010.(2) Excludes stock-based compensation and non-recurring charges.(3) Revenue growth from Apple’s FY2009 through FY2010E.
Aardvark Comparable Public Companies ($ in Millions Except Per Share Data)
US-Based Hardware & Networking Companies with Over $20 Billion Revenue
Goldman Stanley
Aardvark DCF Analysis – WACC Calculation
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Discount Rate Calculation - AssumptionsRisk-Free Rate: 4.38%Equity Risk Premium: 7.00%Interest Rate on Debt: 9.00%
Comparable Companies - Unlevered Beta CalculationLevered Equity Unlevered
Name Beta(1) Debt(1) Value(1) Tax Rate BetaHewlett-Packard Company 1.04 15,830$ 114,779$ 20.0% 0.94 Dell Inc. 1.31 3,793 25,241 27.0% 1.18 Cisco Systems, Inc. 1.23 10,273 131,739 22.0% 1.16 Intel Corporation 1.17 2,224 107,224 33.0% 1.15 Motorola, Inc. 1.87 3,925 14,239 34.0% 1.58
Median 1.23 1.16
Aardvark 1.57
Aardvark - Levered Beta & WACC CalculationUnlevered Equity Levered
Beta Debt(1) Value(1) Tax Rate Beta
Aardvark 1.16 $0 176,796$ 30% 1.16
Cost of Equity Based on Comparables: 12.50%Cost of Equity Based on Historical Beta: 15.37%
WACC 12.50%
(1) Financial data as of January 29, 2010.
($ in Millions Except Per Share Data)