A Global Framework For Addressing Aviation CO2 Emissions
Paul SteelePaul Steele
Director Aviation Director Aviation EnvironmentEnvironment
IATAIATA
Aviation is a key driver of socio-economic
development 2.2 Billion passengers
32 Million jobs
8% of global GDP (US$ 3.5 trillion)
2% of global man-made CO2 emissions
Major driver of tourism and trade
Aviation faces emissions challenge……
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014 2017 2020 2023 2026 2029
Mill
ion
tonn
es C
O2
628 Mt
(2010F)
Pre-recession ICAO forecast
Post-recessionIATA forecast
Source: IATA
CO2 emissions from the global fuel burn of commercial airlines
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014 2017 2020
Fue
l effi
cien
cy, l
itres
/100
TK
P
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
1100
1200
CO
2 m
illio
n to
nnes
Fuel efficiency
CO2
Emissions at frozen 1990 technology
Actual Emissions
3.3 Billion tonnes of CO2 saved
…..but our track record is strong
Industry Commitment on Climate
Change
2008
Our four-pillar strategy:
Invest in new technologyFly more efficientlyBuild and use efficient infrastructureUse effective economic measures
Global industry targets
2010 2020 20501.5% p/a fuel efficiency
Working towards CNG
CNG from 2020
Implementation of global sectoral approach
50% reduction in net CO2 emissions over 2005 levels
Source: IATA Carbon ModelSource: IATA Carbon Model
5 50 55 60 807570 90
Optimizing cost index
8565
USD/tCO2
-200
800
600
200
1,000
0 MtCO2
-600
-400
-800
454035302520 15015 145140135130125120110105100100
Re- enginingNo tankering
Reduced speed operation with current fleetEngine retrofit/upgrades
Early retirement
115
BiofuelsCabin weight reductions
Wingtips
Use of ground powerTakeoff and Landing Procedures
Center of GravityPilot Technique
Fuel Management
95
RVSM RussiaTaxiing with some engines shut down
Drag reduction
Next Gen
Flexible Usage of Military airspacePRD
Flexible tracks North PacificAirspace China redesign
Gulf regionEuropean ATM Improvements
Carbon price 65 US$/tCO2
Jet fuel price; 100 $/barrel
CO2 Marginal Abatement Cost Curve in 2020for global commercial airline fuel burn
CO2 Abatement cost curve in 2020
Emissions reduction roadmap
2005 20502020
No action
2030 2040
-50% by 2050
CO2
emissions
2010
“Frozen technology” emissions
Gross emissions trajectory
(schematic)
CNG 2020
2005 20502020
TechOpsInfra
No action
2030 2040
-50% by 2050
CO2
emissions
2010
“Frozen technology” emissions
Known technology, operations and infrastructure measures
Carbon-neutral growth 2020
Gross emissions trajectory
CNG 2020
(schematic)
Emissions reduction roadmap
2005 20502020
TechOpsInfra
No action
CNG 2020
2030 2040
-50% by 2050
CO2
emissions
2010
“Frozen technology” emissions
Known technology, operations and infrastructure measures
Biofuels and additional technology
Carbon-neutral growth 2020
Gross emissions trajectory
Economic measures
Biofuels +
add. Tech
(schematic)
Emissions reduction roadmap
2010 to 2020
2010 2020 20501.5% p/a fuel efficiency
Working towards CNG
CNG from 2020
Implementation of global sectoral approach
50% reduction in net CO2 emissions over 2005 levels
CO2 from commercial airline fuel burn
1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014 2017 2020
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
1100
CO
2 m
illio
n t
on
ne
s
CO2
Frozen technology at 2010 fuel efficiency
2010–2020: +1.5% p.a. fuel efficiency
150 million tonnes of cuts needed in
2020
728 million tonnes of additional cuts required by 2020 to make +
1.5% pa efficiency target
Source: IATA Carbon ModelSource: IATA Carbon Model
Key emissions reduction drivers to 2020 Fleet renewal Infrastructure Operations Biofuels
Industry can deliver on fleet/ load factor and operations
Governments need to support infrastructure and biofuels
% Emissions reduction
potential to 2020
Industry driven
measures
Govt. support needed
Analysis: Key conclusions
47
111213
16
1Alternative Fuels
Infrastructure
Retrofits
Operations
Load Factor
Fleet Renewal
Source: IATA Carbon ModelSource: IATA Carbon Model
How can governments help? Invest in ATM improvements – e.g. NextGen and
SESAR
Invest in R&D funding for new technology
Promote scaling up and of sustainable biofuel production
Our biggest opportunity is sustainable biofuelsbiofuels
Second & third generation biofuels - e.g. camelina, algae
With the potential to reduce our carbon footprint by up to 80%
Full certification by Q1 2011
Next step: scaling up and commercialisation
Biofuels could completely replace Jet A-1
Source: E4tech
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Prop
ortio
n of
jet d
eman
d
High
Central (high)
Central (low)
Low
Very low
Promotion of aviation biofuels
Governments have their part to play too
R&D funding Pilot projects Fiscal & investment incentives Transport & energy policy
2005 20502020
TechOpsInfra
No action
CNG 2020
2030 2040
-50% by 2050
CO2
emissions
2010
“Frozen technology” emissions
Known technology, operations and infrastructure measures
Biofuels and additional technology
Carbon-neutral growth 2020
Gross emissions trajectory
Economic measures
Biofuels +
add. Tech
(schematic)
Emissions reduction roadmap
Market-based measures Industry recognises that MBMs will be needed
to “close the gap”
But we need positive not punitive measures Fiscal/financial/policy measures to:
Accelerate R&D Incentivize technical/operational improvements Promote alternative fuels
Emissions trading can play a role but must be global
Industry offset mechanisms should also be recognized
How can governments help?By agreeing
A coordinated policy approach
A global framework under ICAO
By avoiding
A fragmented policy approach
Unilateral use of national/regional measures
Uncoordinated patchwork“Green” taxes
Emissions trading
$ ? $ ? $ ? $ ?$ 4 mn$ 1-13 bn
$3.5bn $1.2bn $0.2bn $ ? $ ? $ ?$25bn?$100m
Concerns with Environment Taxes
“Green” taxes do nothing for the environment Money goes into central treasury funds Netherlands tax repealed after 18% shift in traffic across borders
Distance banding causes market distortions UK APD distortions because based on capital cities Cheaper to fly to Hawaii than Bermuda
Taxes hurt developing country trade and tourism Usually distant from tourism source and trade target markets
The ICAO 37th Assembly was a unique opportunity for governments
to agree on a global framework…
ICAO 37th Assembly ResolutionPositives:
First ever global sectoral agreement to reduce carbon emissions
Reflects aspirational industry goal of carbon-neutral growth from 2020
Lists 15 principles for MBMs, in line with industry priorities, e.g.
Transparency and simplicity No duplication Minimize leakage and distortion Appropriate access to all carbon markets
Aviation’s economic impact
If aviation were a country, it would rank 21st in terms of GDP –same size as Switzerland
35% of goods transported worldwide – by value – are sent by air, but only 5% by volume
40% of international tourists travel by air
Air travel supports 1.3% of total employment in Africa, contributing $10 billion to GDP and is 4 times as productive as the economy as a whole
In Latin America, 1.8 million jobs are supported by aviation, contributing $22 billion to the GDP
The food miles debate
High-value, perishable foods
Supporting emerging economies
Air-freighted fresh produce to the UK alone supports 1.5 million jobs in Africa
‘Food miles’ argument doesn’t stand up – Oxfam report
You must look at the full lifecycle and most produce grown in Europe requires large amounts of energy
Lincoln University study showed 1kg of New Zealand lamb shipped to the UK had a smaller carbon footprint than 1kg of British lamb
Useful Reports
IATA carbon offset program 17 Airlines – 6% of global traffic
TAP Air Portugal won UNESCO “Planet Earth Award” in 2010.
Large credible offset provider sources high quality carbon credits.
Carbon credits are compliance grade CERs (under CDM/Kyoto Protocol)
Offering passengers a portfolio of offset projects large geographical coverage social and economic benefits for local communities.
IATA Carbon Calculator ICAO methodology enhanced with real airline data.
Government approved offset program (DECC-UK QA)
Phase II of the program has started – corporate travel/online agents.
Carbon labelling
Flybe first airline to label planes Noise Fuel Consumption CO2 emissions
New CO2 standard Being developed by ICAO and industry Standard for new aircraft types Ready in 2013
A global framework for addressing aviation CO2 emissions
Q & A?