• Global Threat, Statement for the Record Senate Armed Services Committee, 11 February 2003
• HTTP://www.fas.org, Federation of American Scientists
• Terrorism, the Future, and U.S. Foreign Policy, Issue Brief for Congress, 8 January 2003
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Global Threat: ReferencesGlobal Threat: References
Near Term PrioritiesNear Term Priorities
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• Global Terrorism
- Most immediate concern to U.S. interests at home or abroad
- Many terrorist groups have the capabilities of doing us harm
Current List of Designated Foreign Terrorist Organizations (As of October 5, 2001)
• 1. Abu Nidal Organization (ANO) 2. Abu Sayyaf Group
• 3. Armed Islamic Group (GIA)
• 4. Aum Shinrikyo
• 5. Basque Fatherland and Liberty (ETA)
• 6. Gama'a al-Islamiyya (Islamic Group)
• 7. HAMAS (Islamic Resistance Movement)
• 8. Harakat ul-Mujahidin (HUM)
• 9. Hizballah (Party of God)
• 10. Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan (IMU)
• 11. al-Jihad (Egyptian Islamic Jihad)
• 12. Kahane Chai (Kach)
•13. Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK)
• 14. Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE)
• 15. Mujahedin-e Khalq Organization (MEK)
• 16. National Liberation Army (ELN)
• 17. Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ)
• 18. Palestine Liberation Front (PLF)
• 19. Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine (PFLP)
• 20. PFLP-General Command (PFLP-GC)
• 21. al-Qa'ida
• 22. Real IRA
• 23. Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC)
• 24. Revolutionary Nuclei (formerly ELA)
• 25. Revolutionary Organization 17 November
• 26. Revolutionary People's Liberation Army/Front (DHKP/C)
• 27. Shining Path (Sendero Luminoso, SL)
• 28. United Self-Defense Forces of Colombia (AUC)
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Al Qaida
• Retains presence on six continents
• Draws support from legitimate and illegitimate organizations
• Network is adaptive, flexible, and more agile than us
• Look for future attacks in Europe
• Are actively seeking WMD and RDD
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Iraq
• Attack Kurds in North• Attack Israel and
regional states• “Energize” Arab
countries• Employ scorched earth
policy, destroying infrastructures and using WMD
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North Korea
• Pursuit of Nuclear Weapons reflect long term strategic goal
-income derived from weapons exports
-two stage Taepo-Dong 2 missile could target U.S. with nuclear payload
• Significant conventional military (infantry, armor, artillery, WMD) forebear a violent, destructive war with little or no warning
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Global RealitiesGlobal Realities
• These realities are enduring and foster hatred against west:
- reaction to U.S. dominance
- globalization - uneven economic and
demographic growth - general technology
proliferation - WMD proliferation
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Global Realities (cont.)Global Realities (cont.)
-declining global defense spending
- international crime
-increasing number of people in need
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Reaction to U.S. DominanceReaction to U.S. Dominance
• Many are concerned about expansion, consolidation, and dominance of American values, ideals, culture, and institutions
• Fear of losing cultural identity
• Fear of U.S. unilateralism
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Globalization
• Globalization is the increasing flow of money, goods, services, people, information, technology, and ideas
• It can be positive
• It can leave large numbers of people worse off and open for influence by subversive organizations
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Uneven Economic and Demographic Growth
• The world will add another billion people in 10-15 years, 95% in developing nations
• 20-30 million of poorest migrate to cities
• Cities will be unable to keep up with increase
• Resulting instability will increase power on dangerous non-state entities
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General Technology Proliferation
• New vulnerabilities, interdependencies, and capabilities are being created in advanced and less developed states
• The integration of various advancements and application of emerging technology makes it difficult to predict the fututre
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Weapons of Mass Destruction and Missile Proliferation
• States seek these for regional security and to deter U.S. superiority
• Globalization provides technology and materials to acquire
• New alliances have formed
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Declining Global Defense Spending
• Global defense spending has dropped 50% in the past decade.
• Adversaries and allies will not keep pace with the U.S.
• Foes driven to asymmetric options
• Technology transfers and embargoes will be more difficult to control
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International Crime
• Criminal groups around the world are broadening their activities in narcotics trafficking, alien smuggling, and illegal arms trading
• These groups can fund terrorism and use their networks to assist terrorists
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Regional Issues: Israel and Palestine
• Conflict is furthering anti-American sentiment
• Increasing pressure on moderate Middle East countries
• No end likely in near future
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Regional Issues: Pakistan and India
• Islamabad and Dehli has taken steps to defuse
• Tensions are still high, • Both sides retain large
forces and continue WMD and missile programs
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Regional Issues: Muslim World
• Pakistan• Afghanistan• Indonesia• Egypt• Jordan• Saudi Arabia• Turkey
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Other Actors:Iran• Iran is pursuing fissile
material. It will have a nuclear weapon within the decade
• It has biological warfare program and dual use equipment. It maintains a stockpile of chemical weapons
• Large missile force• Navy is most capable in
region
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Other Actors:Russia
• Russian cooperation in the war on terrorism, and muted reaction to NATO expansion is reassuring.
• Concern remains on proliferation of WMD security of its nuclear weapons, and expanding criminal syndicates.
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Other Actors:China
• Chinese military spending will continue growing
• Modernizing missile forces
• PLA is acquiring high-tech arms and emphasizing professionalism of officer corps