LMC Automotive Markets Presentation to
AB SKF
2nd December 2020
© 2020 LMC Automotive Limited, All Rights Reserved.
Markets
Jonathon Poskitt, Director, Global Sales ForecastsSKF Webinar
2 December 2020
Global Light Vehicle Update
© 2020 LMC Automotive Limited, All Rights Reserved.
Background
2Sources: European Commission, US Bureau of Labor Statistics
5060708090
100110
Qtr
1
Qtr
3
Qtr
5
Qtr
7
Qtr
9
Qtr
11
Qtr
13
Qtr
15
Qtr
17
GreatRecession
Pandemic
Share Price Evolution (US)
Inde
x
-25.0
-20.0
-15.0
-10.0
-5.0
0.0
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
EU Consumer Confidence (Index)
Eurozone Crisis
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
US Unemployment Rate (%)
Consumer confidence across EU plummeted in first lockdown, to levels last seen during Eurozone crisis. Improvement in recent months has run out of steam.
Unemployment rates have risen rapidly in many countries, though various support measures have offset some of the impact. Higher unemployment set to persist.
Following Great Recession, stock markets took years to recover, though the health of share prices this time around has been somewhat more robust.
© 2020 LMC Automotive Limited, All Rights Reserved.
Macroeconomic picture
3Source: Oxford Economics
Quarterly economic impact felt first in China, though rapid rebound subsequently. US and Europe impact lagged, with latter heading back into contractionary territory in Q4.
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
2019
Q1
2019
Q2
2019
Q3
2019
Q4
2020
Q1
2020
Q2
2020
Q3
2020
Q4
CH
US
EZ
GDP Growth, QoQ
China GDP growth remains positive though heavy annual recessions for US and Europe. 2021 sees solid bounce back though activity will be held back, with ongoing pandemic disruption early in the year. -10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
2019 2020 2021
CH
US
EZ
GDP Growth, YoY
© 2020 LMC Automotive Limited, All Rights Reserved.
Global Light Vehicle sales in a classic V-shaped rebound
4
SAAR, World, mn units/year Light Vehicle sales were just
over 90 mn units in 2019; the selling rate average for Jul-Oct shows a market running at close to last year’s total.
The speed of recovery, given the nature of the pandemic shock, has been surprisingly strong, though the ‘cost’ of the dip has been 13 mn units, if 2019 volumes had been replicated this year.
The key question is whether this level of sales can and will be sustained.
88.6
65.6
57.3
49.2
61.5
78.9
88.4 90.1 91.0 90.7
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Jan-
20
Feb-
20
Mar
-20
Apr-2
0
May
-20
Jun-
20
Jul-2
0
Aug-
20
Sep-
20
Oct
-20
Full-year 2019 market
-13 mn
Source: LMC Automotive
© 2020 LMC Automotive Limited, All Rights Reserved.
Latest Light Vehicle market data (selling rates) …
5Source: LMC Automotive
- 5
10 15 20 25 30 35
Jan-
19Fe
b-19
Mar
-19
Apr-
19M
ay-1
9Ju
n-19
Jul-1
9A
ug-1
9Se
p-19
Oct
-19
Nov
-19
Dec
-19
Jan-
20Fe
b-20
Mar
-20
Apr-
20M
ay-2
0Ju
n-20
Jul-2
0A
ug-2
0Se
p-20
Oct
-20
Mill
ions
China
Sep-20:+9% YoY
Oct-20+10% YoY
- 2 4 6 8
10 12 14 16 18 20
Jan-
19Fe
b-19
Mar
-19
Apr-
19M
ay-1
9Ju
n-19
Jul-1
9A
ug-1
9Se
p-19
Oct
-19
Nov
-19
Dec
-19
Jan-
20Fe
b-20
Mar
-20
Apr-
20M
ay-2
0Ju
n-20
Jul-2
0A
ug-2
0Se
p-20
Oct
-20
Mill
ions
USA
0.01.02.03.04.05.06.07.0
Jan-
19Fe
b-19
Mar
-19
Apr-
19M
ay-1
9Ju
n-19
Jul-1
9A
ug-1
9Se
p-19
Oct
-19
Nov
-19
Dec
-19
Jan-
20Fe
b-20
Mar
-20
Apr-
20M
ay-2
0Ju
n-20
Jul-2
0A
ug-2
0Se
p-20
Oct
-20
Mill
ions
Japan
0
5
10
15
20
25
Mill
ions
Western Europe
Sep-20:+4% YoY
Oct-20+1% YoY
Sep-20:-14% YoY
Oct-20+29% YoY
Sep-20:+2% YoY
Oct-20-6% YoY
© 2020 LMC Automotive Limited, All Rights Reserved.
Vehicle demand – baseline market projections
6
Light Vehicle sales (millions)
15.7 13.3 14.9
25.5 24.3 26.0
20.217.0
18.5
20.7
16.218.7
4.1
3.0
3.9
4.0
3.5
4.1
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
2019 2020 2021
AP minus China China North America Europe South America ROW
90
7786
Source: LMC Automotive
© 2020 LMC Automotive Limited, All Rights Reserved.
Vehicle demand – lasting impact and ongoing risk
7
Light Vehicle sales (millions)
Source: LMC Automotive
70
75
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Jan-20 Forecast
Latest Forecast-13
-7
-4
Downside Risk
More pronounced second wave and economic damage
More serious macro downturn and/or policy tightening
Financial contagion
Slower medical progress/roll out
Upside Risk
Rapid vaccine distribution
Ongoing surge in preference for private ownership and driving
Extended fiscal/macro boost; new or extended targeted automotive support
Recent market strength continues
© 2020 LMC Automotive Limited, All Rights Reserved.
UpdateGlobal Light Vehicle Production
SKF webinarJustin Cox, LMC Automotive
December 2nd 2020
© 2020 LMC Automotive Limited, All Rights Reserved.
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
2019 2019 2019 2019 2019 2019 2019 2019 2019 2019 2019 2019
Milli
ons
2019 2020
2020 v 2019 Global LV production development
Source: LMC Automotive
• Better than expected recovery: Q3 2020 only 3% below 2019
• But Q4 is characterized by diverging regional performances:
• Impact from ‘second wave’ lockdowns in Europe undermine inventory replenishment and solidifying recoveries elsewhere.
2019: 88.8mn2020: 74.7mn
© 2020 LMC Automotive Limited, All Rights Reserved.
Inventory situation differs across markets
3Source: LMC Automotive
87 78 69 76 67 67 66 61 66 7376 6994
119
59 60 55 51 50 59
0
1
2
3
4
0
50
100
150
Mill
ions
US Light Vehicle Days' Supply
Yr-Ago Days' Supply Days' Supply
Europe saw a similar supply spike in days supply but has since balanced on stronger demand and production. Impact from ‘second-wave’ lockdown could see inventory management in Q4 and Q1 2021.
China was destocking heading into the outbreak. Given rapid rebound and restart in production, inventory has begun building again relative to retail demand.
Disruptions endure ensuring that US inventory remains at historic lows. May not see normal inventory levels until mid-2021.
1
60 65 5978
110
63 60 64
0123456
020406080
100120
Mill
ions
Europe Light Vehicle Days' Supply
Days' Supply Inventory
-0.50.00.51.01.52.02.5
Wholesales
Retail Sales
Stock change
China: Stock Change
© 2020 LMC Automotive Limited, All Rights Reserved.
North America launch delay analysis
05
1015202530
2020 2021 2022
Delay Activity by Year
Redesigns Facelifts
Nearly 80% of planned NA launches impacted.
Average delay in region increased to 5.5 months, affecting 25 assembly lines.
OEMs are prioritizing new programs based on importance.
Facelift activity further down the priority list.
8 launches throughout forecast were cancelled.
4Source: LMC Automotive
2020 LaunchesLaunches Action
38 Planned 2020 NA launches4 Launched by ramp-up delayed
12 SOP delayed within 202012 SOP delayed into 2021 or beyond9 SOP not officially delayed
© 2020 LMC Automotive Limited, All Rights Reserved.
Global production decline by major market
5Source: LMC Automotive
Light Vehicle production (millions)
-22%
-18%-19%
-5%-32% -5%
-16%
© 2020 LMC Automotive Limited, All Rights Reserved.
-2,000 -1,500 -1,000 -500 0 500
IranRomaniaNetherlandsMoroccoSouth AfricaSlovakiaTurkeyItalyPolandRussiaKoreaUKSpainCanadaIndonesiaThailandFranceBrazilIndiaChinaGermanyJapanUSA
Thousands
Global LV Production: 2020 v 2019 Growth by Selected Countries
6
-17%-15%-25%-5%-24%-33%-39%-29%-46%-29%-20%-26%-7%-16%-30%-20%-12%-14%-23%-16%
+38%
Bars : Volume Change YoY (000s)xx% : Percentage Change YoY
-29%-10%
© 2020 LMC Automotive Limited, All Rights Reserved.
Global LV Production 2020 and 2021 growth v 2019 Base
7Source: LMC Automotive
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Q1: -6% Q2: -3% Q3: -1% Q4:+2%
2021: Indexed against 20192020: Indexed against 2019
Q4: +4%
Q3: -2%
Q2: -43%
Q1: -22%
Base 2019 = 1002019: 88.8mn
Inde
x
2021: 86.9mn2020: 74.7mn
© 2020 LMC Automotive Limited, All Rights Reserved. 8
-14%
-8%
-3%
2%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
Pan Europe
-7%
-4%-1% -1%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
N America
4%
9%
-2%
0%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
China
LV Production 2021 growth v 2019 Base: Selected Regions
Source: LMC Automotive
Note: % change represent 2021 volume v 2019 volume
© 2020 LMC Automotive Limited, All Rights Reserved.
Global production growth by Region (2021 v 2020)
9Source: LMC Automotive
Light Vehicle production (millions)
+21%+17%
+20%+8% +38% +30%
+16%
© 2020 LMC Automotive Limited, All Rights Reserved.
88.8 90.4
74.7
86.991.8
95.2
2019 2020Pre
COVID-19
2020 2021 2022 2023
Chinese momentum, and wider stock-replenishment underpin 2021 production.
2021 inventory growth associated with improving confidence in demand outlook and new models: Global production volume moves ahead of Sales.
Risks include a recurring impositions of widespread lockdowns and short-term capacity constraints.
Global production baseline forecast
-16%
10
+16%
Source: LMC Automotive
© 2020 LMC Automotive Limited, All Rights Reserved.
OEM Medium Term ‘Score-card’
11Source: LMC Automotive
Global LV Production by Key Groups: 2019=100
OEM Notes• Combination of Regional
market exposure and competitiveness development support performance in medium term
2020 2021 2022 2023All Global Total 84 98 103 107Toyota Grp 86 99 105 107VW Grp 83 96 99 103RNM 73 91 96 102Hyundai Grp 87 109 115 117GM 83 92 96 95Honda 85 92 97 102Ford 77 98 103 107FCA 77 96 102 109PSA 79 103 108 114Suzuki 82 87 92 95Daimler 85 95 99 106BMW Grp 88 95 100 103SAIC 91 98 99 103Geely 95 108 117 126
© 2020 LMC Automotive Limited, All Rights Reserved. 12
World LV Production Scenario Range
Source: LMC Automotive
© 2020 LMC Automotive Limited, All Rights Reserved.
Electrification
Sam Adham, Senior Powertrain Analyst
Global Light Vehicle Powertrain Briefing
8th October, 2020
A selection of various battery and e-motor trends
© 2020 LMC Automotive Limited, All Rights Reserved.
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
10,000
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032
GW
h c
um
ula
tive
GW
h a
nn
ua
l
EMEA cumulative ROW cumulative EMEA annual ROW annual
• If 24 GWh each, implies a need for at least 25 European „Gigafactories‟ by 2032
• Compare with ICE production: Currently 60 active engine plants in Europe
• BEVs account for 70% of total GWh demand now, rising to 90% in the future
Source: LMC Automotive Global Light Vehicle Powertrain Forecast with Battery & eMotor Module
EMEA & Global LV xEV battery requirement
World: Battery Demand Outlook
2
© 2020 LMC Automotive Limited, All Rights Reserved.
Operator Location Capacity Comment
Northvolt Sweden 16 GWh initial, rising to 32 GWh Expected 2021. Supplying VW, BMW
Northvolt Germany 16 GWh initial, rising to 32 GWh Expected Q1 2024. Supplying VW, BMW
CATL Germany 14 GWh initial, rising to 24 GWh Expected 2022
LG Chem Poland 10 GWh initial, rising to 65 GWh In operation
SK Innovation Hungary 7.5 GWh initial, 17.3 GWh by 2022 In operation
Samsung SDI Hungary 3 GWh current In operation
BYD UK ? Prospective. Potential JLR partner
Britishvolt UK 10 GWh initial, rising to 30 GWh 2023. Prospective. Potential JLR partner
Tesla Germany Would need to be ~8 GWh initially Planning
Saft/PSA France 8 GWh initial, rising to 24 GWh Expected 2023
Saft/PSA Germany 24 GWh Expected 2023. Plant conversion
Daimler Germany ? In operation; 2 plants; pack assembly
Daimler Poland ? In operation; pack assembly
VW Czech Rep. ? In operation; PHEV pack assembly
FCA Italy ? In operation. Final assembly
PSA Slovakia ? Final assembly
Volvo Belgium ? In operation. Final assembly
Europe: Importing Battery Cells & Packs isn‟t Sustainable
Known and assumed major PEV battery production operations in Europe
3
© 2020 LMC Automotive Limited, All Rights Reserved.
40 Wh/kg 65 Wh/L
180 Wh/L 90 Wh/kg
250 Wh/kg 300 Wh/L
Energy density: there is still much to be done
100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800
Specific Energy [Wh/kg]
Sp
ec
ific
Po
we
r [W
/kg
]
200
400
600
800
Lead-Acid
NiCd NiMH
Current
Li-ion
Where we
need to be
0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800
Energy Density [Wh/L]
Po
we
r D
en
sit
y [
W/L
]
2000
4000
6000
8000
Li-ion
900
Solid-State
0
Advanced Li-ion
Even the best li-ion batteries today have an energy density of ~300 Wh/L
That is just 3% of the energy density of gasoline
Hydrogen
Diesel
Gasoline
Li-ion Battery
NiMH Battery
Lead Acid Battery
10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 5,000 10,000
Specific Energy [Wh/kg] Energy Density [Wh/L]
© 2020 LMC Automotive Limited, All Rights Reserved.
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
2015 2020 2025 2030
We
igh
ted
Ave
rag
e
Ba
tte
ry C
ap
acity (
kW
h)
NEAR TERM: IMPROVING LITHIUM-ION • New anode and cathode materials • Stable and higher quality electrolytes
and additives • Better pack design and materials • Advanced control • Better manufacturing processes
MID-TERM: ERA OF DIMINISHING GAINS • Low-hanging fruit is harvested by
this time, and any advance is minimal, before switch-over to next-gen batteries
LONG TERM: BEYOND LITHIUM-ION • Battery cost and performance breakthrough • Solid state as an alternative to liquid electrolyte • Li-Air, Li-S, as an alternative to li-ion • Next gen liquid, gel, polymer electrolytes to
enhance performance of new anode and cathode materials
optimised lithium
diminishing gains
advanced lithium
Global BEV battery capacity trend – weighted average by volume
BEV Battery Technology Development
5
Source: LMCA Global Light Vehicle Powertrain
Forecast with Battery & eMotor Module
© 2020 LMC Automotive Limited, All Rights Reserved.
40
80
120
160
Next 10 years: -$8/yr
6
0
500
1,000
Pa
ck
Wh
ole
sa
le C
os
t ($
/kW
h**
)
$156 (BNEF), $150 (McKinsey)
BEV-ICE cost parity* BEV-ICE profit parity*
* Depending on segment and market
** Price based on Li-ion battery pack produced at a large battery plant (35GWh)
BEV Battery Pack Price Outlook
Past 10 years: -$85/yr
$62 (BNEF)
$100 (BNEF)
$~150
Incentives needed
This curve represents mass
market – in reality the cost
depends on the segment, vehicle,
OEM, and cathode chemistry!
Current view is that Li, Mn, Co &
Ni supplies will be sufficient to
keep up with demand, but prices
will be spiky
We aren‟t assuming a
commercial-level battery
breakthrough such as solid state
before 2030
The outlook from here is Li-ion
with scale, optimisation and
incremental gains
© 2020 LMC Automotive Limited, All Rights Reserved.
BEV Battery Cathode Chemistry Outlook
Source: LMC Automotive G LVPTF Battery & eMotor Module
7
LFP NCA
NMC
2019
LFP LNMO (?)
NCA
NMC
NMCA
2025
Source: LMCA Global Light Vehicle Powertrain Forecast with Battery & eMotor Module
LFP share suffered a
collapse towards 2019, but
is bouncing back in China
NMC is dominant, but
cobalt-free imperative is
driving development of
alternatives
LNMO is what we‟re
assuming to be future
chemistry for Tesla and
SVolt
© 2020 LMC Automotive Limited, All Rights Reserved.
PHEV battery capacities are getting larger
Typical battery sizes by segment
8
5
10
15
20
25
Ba
ttery
ca
pac
ity [
kW
h]
2015
2020
2025
Source: LMCA Global Light
Vehicle Powertrain Forecast with
Battery & eMotor Module
In Europe, WLTP forced larger packs
Will keep increasing with incremental
improvements in volumetric energy density
© 2020 LMC Automotive Limited, All Rights Reserved.
What is holding back solid state and other breakthroughs?
There are other technical limitations and trade-offs to consider:
Specific Energy
Specific Power
Scalability
Cost
Longevity
Degradation
Stability
Operating Range
Charging Time
Self-Discharge
Safety
Toxicity
9
© 2020 LMC Automotive Limited, All Rights Reserved.
Efficiencies in pack design and management – on the cell, module, and pack level
Battery predictive control and thermal management
Dedicated, modular, scalable, and shared EV platforms
What else can be done to improve battery performance?
© 2020 LMC Automotive Limited, All Rights Reserved.
Hybrid driving functions
Sta
rt/S
top
To
rqu
e A
ssis
t
Lo
ad
-po
int
sh
ifti
ng
Sailin
g
/ C
oasti
ng
Recu
pera
tio
n
e-C
reep
Ve
loc
ity
Time
For 48V, motor powers initially ~8-10kW, which is enough to enable most functions, but larger
motors will emerge bringing with them more recuperation potential, and enable some of the more
advanced functions like e-creep
© 2020 LMC Automotive Limited, All Rights Reserved.
e-Motor Topology
Efficiency, and ability to operate the various driving modes, depends
heavily on the position of the e-motor
© 2020 LMC Automotive Limited, All Rights Reserved.
P2 Modular Transmissions
With further electrification of driveline, general trend towards modular P2 and P4.
48V Mild hybrids will mostly be P0 initially, but starting around 2021 OEMs will
transition to P2, either with suppliers or upgrades of in-house developed
transmissions.
Even some non-premium OEMs will adopt P2 48V. e.g. PSA selected Punch
Powertrain DT2 lightweight low-cost hybridised dual-clutch.
13
Getrag 7HDT300 (P2 DCT) ZF 8P70AH (P2 AT no TC) Daimler 9G Tronic (P2 AT)
© 2020 LMC Automotive Limited, All Rights Reserved.
48V Mild Hybrids – Topology Forecast
Mostly P0 initially – cheapest and
simplest to implement, but still limited
in energy recuperation potential and
efficiency. Will remain on low-cost
small segments.
P2 best all-rounder on cost-benefit,
depending on model segment.
Expected emergence in 2022.
Naturally linked to transmission. Will
push out P0 because of efficiency
advantage and also because manual
transmissions (where P0 is prevalent)
are dying out over time.
P0-P4 also attractive solution for AWD
SUVs, but expected to be niche.
© 2020 LMC Automotive Limited, All Rights Reserved.
Trend towards DHTs with fully integrated eMotors
DHT general definition: “a transmission where an electrical machine(s) is fully
integrated into the drivetrain to under undertake its desired functions”
For cost reasons the transition to electrification will not be straight to DHTs, but
rather add on/replacement components for conventional driveline systems (P2/P4
concepts)
15
GKN Multimode eTransmission
on Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV
Larger electrical power demand will
lead to larger e-motors/batteries, which
will demand higher integration into
transmission/driveline.
Consumer acceptance and other
factors will influence market share of
DHTs. Cheapest or most efficient
solutions are not always the best.
© 2020 LMC Automotive Limited, All Rights Reserved.
P4 and EVT
16
P4 electric rear axle drive is an attractive solution for AWD SUVs
Usually have an additional front motor, i.e. P0-P4, P2-P4
Decoupled rear axle means that fuel efficiency penalty is minimal
compared to mechanical AWD
© 2020 LMC Automotive Limited, All Rights Reserved.
Powertrain
Sam Adham, Senior Powertrain Analyst
Presentation for SKF, 2nd December 2020
Update, with Focus on xEV Trends
© 2020 LMC Automotive Limited, All Rights Reserved.
Global update on xEV trends
Regional regulation and reaction Europe
China
USA
Other topics: OEM tie-ups, BEV vans and NA
trucks
Wrapping up
2
Contents
© 2020 LMC Automotive Limited, All Rights Reserved.
World: Is the xEV Industry Knocked off Course?
On the Whole, OEMs are striving to protect their xEV programs
• VW resumed production of the ID.3 on 23rd April – 2020 delivery goal unchanged
• Mercedes-Benz back on track to produce 50k EQC this year – the original target
• Hyundai ramps up Kona EV production in Europe to ease supply constraint
• Tesla ‘may hit 500k 2020 target’ despite pandemic (we don’t think so)
• China is getting back on track: BEV sales finally up in July and August (+39%)
• BMW iX3 proceeding according to plan in China despite COVID-19
• Porsche won’t cancel any projects (but Taycan Cross Turismo has a minor delay)
Policymakers (in Europe and China at least) will support the plug-in market
• Europe: Clean vehicle incentive packages in multiple markets
• China: State NEV subsidy runs until the end of 2022 at least
• USA: Diminishing federal support for big BEV players, varying state incentives
3
© 2020 LMC Automotive Limited, All Rights Reserved.
0
1
2
3
0
50
100
150
200
World vol ('000s) World % Linear (World vol ('000s)) Linear (World %)
World: BEV Volumes are Starting to Recover
Monthly PV* BEV sales
• Although volumes have suffered as a result of the pandemic, share is growing
4
Sa
les (
‘00
0s)
Sh
are
(%
)
Source: LMC Automotive Global Hybrid & EV Forecast
*including N. America LV
© 2020 LMC Automotive Limited, All Rights Reserved.
-30
-20
-10
0Market BEV
World PV* sales Jan-Aug: 2020 vs. 2019
World: BEV Sales have Outperformed the Market in 2020
• World BEV PV sales from January to
August 2020 were 955k compared with
1,035k in the same period in 2019.
• The out-performance of BEV comes
despite China NEV sales being
hampered by reduced subsidies, some
USA OEMs losing tax credit & cheap
gasoline almost everywhere.
• It’s Europe that has driven the strong
performance. Tesla started the year
well and there are more new models.
But even ageing BEV models are in
demand, bucking the market.
%
Source: LMC Automotive Global Hybrid & EV Forecast
*including N. America LV
-23% -8%
5
© 2020 LMC Automotive Limited, All Rights Reserved.
…but the Regional Picture is very Mixed
• Europe’s BEV sales have greatly outperformed the market while China’s have
been curtailed by policy changes, and the USA’s have tracked LV sales closely
Source: LMC Automotive Global Hybrid & EV Forecast
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
Market BEV
Europe PV sales
Jan-Aug: 2020 vs. 2019
%
+54%
-34% -40
-20
0
20
40
60
Market BEV
China PV sales
Jan-Aug: 2020 vs. 2019
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
Market BEV
NAM LV sales
Jan-Aug: 2020 vs. 2019
%
%
-16% -26% -23% -20%
6
© 2020 LMC Automotive Limited, All Rights Reserved.
1.5
1.6
1.7
1.8
1.9
2019 2020
+11%
World: Despite USA/China/COVID-19, BEV Grows in 2020
40
60
80
2019 2020
World PV market (inc. NA LV)
Sale
s (
mn
)
-17%
The positive result for BEV demand this year is entirely due to Europe
Source: LMC Automotive Global Hybrid & EV Forecast
67mn 1.7mn
1.8mn
World PV BEV market (inc. NA LV)
80mn
7
© 2020 LMC Automotive Limited, All Rights Reserved.
World: Regional Long-Term Outlook
8
Global PEV Outlook by Major Market (mn units)
Data source: MIIT, LMC Automotive
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
2015
China
Europe
NAM
World
0
1
2
3
2020
0
4
8
12
20250
10
20
2030
• Our analysis suggests that Europe retains the lead in plug-in sales this decade
• However, new government guidance in China is expected soon on post-2022, although any
forecast increase is still unlikely to be put it ahead of Europe by 2030
16mn BEV
4mn PHEV
© 2020 LMC Automotive Limited, All Rights Reserved.
0
10
20
30
2017 2020 2023 2026 2029 2032
BEV PHEV HEV** FCEV
Sa
les (
mn
un
its)
World: Outlook by xEV Technology Type
9
Source: LMC Automotive Global Hybrid & EV Forecast
*Including n. America light truck
** Full hybrid + mild hybrid + mild hybrid (48V)
World PV market*
BEV
21%
HEV
25%
PHEV
5%
All xEV
53%
• Global PV electrification achieves more than 50% within 12 years
© 2020 LMC Automotive Limited, All Rights Reserved.
0
10
20
Q3 2020
Q4 2019
World: COVID-19 doesn’t Impact the Long-Term Forecast
Source: LMC Automotive Global Hybrid & EV Forecast
*Includes N. America light truck
Q4 19: 2020-31 - 111 mn
Q3 20: 2020-31 - 115 mn
Sa
les (
mn
un
its)
• There may be a net positive influence in BEV demand resulting from a
reluctance to revert to the use of public transport (especially in China).
• COVID-19 and the resulting improvement in air quality may act as a focal point
for public opinion to shift in favour of faster elimination of fossil fuel emissions.
World BEV PV market*
10
0
10
20
30
40
50
Q3 2020
Q4 2019
World xEV PV market*
Sa
les (
mn
un
its)
Q4 19: 2020-31 - 356 mn
Q3 20: 2020-31 - 350 mn
© 2020 LMC Automotive Limited, All Rights Reserved.
-12
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
26
36
46
56D
ec
-11
Ap
r-1
2
Au
g-1
2
De
c-1
2
Ap
r-1
3
Au
g-1
3
De
c-1
3
Ap
r-1
4
Au
g-1
4
De
c-1
4
Ap
r-1
5
Au
g-1
5
De
c-1
5
Ap
r-1
6
Au
g-1
6
De
c-1
6
Ap
r-1
7
Au
g-1
7
De
c-1
7
Ap
r-1
8
Au
g-1
8
De
c-1
8
Ap
r-19
Au
g-1
9
De
c-1
9
Ap
r-2
0
Au
g-2
0
Share YoY
W. Europe Car Market
Decline has slowed with YoY share falling at between 2 and 4 percentage points
2020 forecast: 28.7% (-3.3pp), with diesel still needed for CO2 compliance
Europe: A Word on Diesel
Source: National Sources
Figures include diesel hybrid
Dieselgate
Die
se
l %
of N
ew
Ca
r S
ale
s
YoY
Month
ly V
ariance (
PP
)
11
© 2020 LMC Automotive Limited, All Rights Reserved.
0
25
50
0
4
8
Diesel volume (left axis) Diesel share (right axis)
Ne
w D
iese
l P
V S
ale
s (
mn
)
Diesel PV sales lose 2mn by 2032, becoming confined to the largest vehicles
Europe: Diesel Outlook
Die
se
l %
of S
ale
s
Source: National Sources, LMCA European Diesel Forecast; Includes diesel hybrid
1.1mn
7%
29%
4.6mn
12
3.2mn
32%
W. Europe Car Market
© 2020 LMC Automotive Limited, All Rights Reserved.
Global update on xEV trends
Regional regulation and reaction Europe
China
USA
Other topics: OEM tie-ups, BEV vans and
trucks
Wrapping up
13
Contents
© 2020 LMC Automotive Limited, All Rights Reserved.
0
2
4
6
8
10
0
20
40
60
80
100
Europe vol ('000s) Europe %
Europe: Regulatory Impact on the BEV Market is Clear
Monthly PV BEV sales
14
Sa
les (
‘00
0s)
Sh
are
(%
)
Source: LMC Automotive Global Hybrid & EV Forecast
© 2020 LMC Automotive Limited, All Rights Reserved.
Europe: Incentives+OEM Action Create Record BEV Sales
• Many markets set BEV sales records, despite the patchy recovery in car demand
• But will we see a cliff-edge decline when the boosted incentives expire?
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16France
0
5
10
15
20
25Germany
0
1
2
3
4
5Italy
0
1
2
3Spain
0
5
10
15
20
25 UK
Monthly BEV sales, ‘000s
15
Source: LMC Automotive Global Hybrid & EV Forecast
Includes pan-Europe + CIS = Record BEV sales
© 2020 LMC Automotive Limited, All Rights Reserved.
0.0
0.9
1.8
2020 2021 2022
Q4 2019 Forecast Q3 2020 Forecast
0
0.9
1.8
2020 2021 2022
Q4 2019 Forecast Q3 2020 Forecast
Europe passenger car PEV market S
ale
s (
mn
un
its)
• For BEV in 2020, incentives, OEM push & buyer awareness balance COVID-19
Europe: How is the near-term Forecast Looking?
BEV PHEV
Sa
les (
mn
un
its)
16
Source: LMC Automotive Global Hybrid & EV Forecast
Includes pan-Europe + CIS
© 2020 LMC Automotive Limited, All Rights Reserved.
Europe CO2 situation
17
Source: ICCT
Over-reliance on one xEV model and/or lack of plug-in offering has led some
OEMs to pool together
© 2020 LMC Automotive Limited, All Rights Reserved.
0
20
40
60
80
100
0
5
10
15
20
2017 2020 2023 2026 2029 2032
% o
f S
ale
s
Sa
les (
mn
un
its)
BEV PHEV HEV PEV % ICE %
Europe passenger car xEV Market
• More than 90% of passenger car sales will be electrified by early next decade
• Plug-ins will account for 50%+ of the market, dominated by BEV
Europe: Longer Term xEV Outlook
BEV= 3.8mn
BEV= 8.8mn
18
Source: LMC Automotive Global Hybrid & EV Forecast
Includes pan-Europe + CIS
© 2020 LMC Automotive Limited, All Rights Reserved.
Global update on xEV trends
Regional regulation and reaction Europe
China
USA
Other topics: OEM tie-ups, BEV vans and
trucks
Wrapping up
19
Contents
© 2020 LMC Automotive Limited, All Rights Reserved.
NEV subsidy (BEV,PHEV,EREV,FCEV) :
Revised subsidy in place and extended to 2022, but will taper off towards
end of 2022
Requirements on battery range and energy density to qualify
Max vehicle price 300k RMB, except for battery-swapped models
Purchase tax is zero
Verdict: decreased subsidy, but necessary to support the market, and
incentivises longer range and lower cost
China: Government Policy Updates
20
© 2020 LMC Automotive Limited, All Rights Reserved.
Dual credit policy: New version in place, and new quota for 2021-2023 established ‘Energy saving vehicles’ now qualify: FHEV, MHEV/48V Test cycle changes from NEDC to WLTP/CLTC Number of credits that each model counts towards has diminished Verdict: more difficult for OEMs to meet their targets, but good news is more
powertrain options available to them (FHEV, MHEV) CAFC (Corporate Average Fuel Consumption) targets: Targets unchanged, but impact from NEV credit policy update OEMs have met their targets but will find it increasingly difficult in further years Local government incentives: Some local governments have offered some additional subsidies and incentives
to shelter the NEV market from COVID impact License plate lottery continues in several cities – NEVs can bypass
China: Government Policy Updates
21
© 2020 LMC Automotive Limited, All Rights Reserved.
China: NEV Outlook
22
NEV sales were derailed by subsidy cut & COVID-19 in 2020, but grow in the long-term
0
2
4
6
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2025 2030
BEV PHEV
Source: MIIT, LMC Automotive Global Hybrid & EV Forecast
Sa
les (
mn
un
its)
0.2
NEV
1.0
NEV
1.1
NEV
6.3
NEV
4.0
NEV
3.1
BEV
4.8
BEV
0.8
BEV
0.9
BEV
© 2020 LMC Automotive Limited, All Rights Reserved.
Global update on xEV trends
Regional regulation and reaction Europe
China
USA
Other topics: OEM tie-ups, BEV vans and
trucks
Wrapping up
23
Contents
© 2020 LMC Automotive Limited, All Rights Reserved.
North America: Overview
24
Highly fluid US market providing plenty of uncertainty for
electrification rollout.
COVID-19, SAFE regulations, SAFE litigation, presidential elections
Many factors continue helping BEV sales increase.
Consumer costs continue falling, more diverse products, sustained
incentives, continued infrastructure investments
NA EV production base remains important despite the US losing
its global sales lead.
Strong investments, high quantity of local talent
© 2020 LMC Automotive Limited, All Rights Reserved.
State ZEV membership growing.
Larger infrastructure ease plug-in anxiety.
Tougher future CO2 targets?
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
2018 2021 2024 2027 2030
Millio
ns
US Light EV Sales
HEV PHEV BEV
2030 Change over
Baseline
XEV: +67%
BEV: +60%
Source: LMC Automotive
Scenario: Dems Win Senate, California Lawsuit Win
25
© 2020 LMC Automotive Limited, All Rights Reserved.
NA Electrified Light Vehicle Production
26
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
20
19
20
20
20
21
20
22
20
23
20
24
20
25
Millio
ns
BEV PHEV HEV
BEV growth from
established OEMs
and startups.
BEV, FHEV, MHEV
production shares
trending at similar
rates.
Electrification
strategy varies
significantly
between OEMs.
Source: LMC Automotive
© 2020 LMC Automotive Limited, All Rights Reserved.
Global update on xEV trends
Regional regulation and reaction Europe
China
USA
Other topics: OEM tie-ups, BEV vans and
trucks
Wrapping up
27
Contents
© 2020 LMC Automotive Limited, All Rights Reserved.
BEV platform, joint vans/trucks
Future Landscape: OEM tie-ups
28
Merger: xEV platforms &
powertrains & models
xEV platforms & powertrains &
models, in NA
EV powertrain development, V8 engine
Fuel cell development, Supra
model
Hybridised engine programme, DHT
Re-badged hybrid models, AV
BEV platform, joint models, AV
BEV platform
EV truck platform & powertrain
Fuel cell development,
EV truck production BEV batteries
© 2020 LMC Automotive Limited, All Rights Reserved.
Future Landscape: OEM tie-ups
29
A-seg models (due to end)
EV charging investment, mobility services
xEV powertrains
Joint IC engines
Joint IC engines
+ Chinese JVs
Joint vans
+ Joint investments with battery suppliers
© 2020 LMC Automotive Limited, All Rights Reserved.
BEV Vans & opportunities for door-to-door delivery
30
• Europe is the major growth market
in this segment by far
• 99% of volume here is BEV
versions of existing model lines.
Start-ups and new models account
for very little, although more of a
share in NA
• Range is not typically an issue but
TCO is. There will be an explosion
of growth once costs come down
• BEVs make sense for smaller vans
but less so for large ones driving
longer distances – large batteries
eat into payload capacity
Source: LMC Automotive Global Hybrid & EV Forecast
Includes: Europe BEVs, Personal+Commercial, Van body style only
Not shown: North America, Asia-Pacific and Rest of World
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
K
200K
400K
600K
800K
1000K
1200K
2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 2027 2029 2031
Volume
% Share
Europe BEV vans
© 2020 LMC Automotive Limited, All Rights Reserved.
BEV Truck Market
31
K
20K
40K
60K
80K
100K
120K
140K
2021 2023 2025 2027 2029 2031
Others (GMC Sierra,Nikola Badger, BollingerB2, LMC Endurance)
GMC Hummer E-PickupEV
Tesla Cybertruck
Rivian R1T
Chevrolet Silverado
Ford F-150
Ram 1500
• An expansion of truck product
will give the US market a boost
in the coming years
• Focuses are different: some
target personal use (Rivian,
Hummer) while others target
commercial/fleet sales (LMC
Endurance)
• However, the products that
should really help garner
acceptance are more
SUV/CUVs – these have been
the growth segments, but have
remained devoid of product until
the intro of Model X/Y
Source: LMC Automotive Global Hybrid & EV Forecast
Includes: North America BEV sales, Pickup body style only
NA BEV Pickups
© 2020 LMC Automotive Limited, All Rights Reserved.
BEV Truck Market
32
Source: LMC Automotive Global Hybrid & EV Forecast
Includes: North America BEV sales, Pickup and SUV body style only
-100K
100K
300K
500K
700K
900K
1100K
1300K
2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032
Pickup
SUV
• An expansion of truck product
will give the US market a boost
in the coming years
• Focuses are different: some
target personal use (Rivian,
Hummer) while others target
commercial/fleet sales (LMC
Endurance)
• However, the products that
should really help garner
acceptance are more
SUV/CUVs – these have been
the growth segments, but have
remained devoid of product until
the intro of Model X/Y
NA BEV Pickups & SUVs
© 2020 LMC Automotive Limited, All Rights Reserved.
How policies are driving the China NEV market
Lancy Zhang, China Powertrain Analyst
Global Light Vehicle Powertrain Briefing
8th October, 2020
Electrification
© 2020 LMC Automotive Limited, All Rights Reserved.
Outline
• NEV Definition
• Government Policy and Regulations
• NEV Market Status
• Outlook
2
© 2020 LMC Automotive Limited, All Rights Reserved.
NEV definition
Different definitions to NEV between the China government and LMC
3
Plug-in
BEV: battery electric vehicle
Geely Kandi BAIC EU260 BYD Qin SAIC Roewe 550
EREV: extended range electric vehicle PFCEV: fuel cell electric vehicle
Lixiang One Honda Clarity
Non-plug
FHEV: full hybrid electric vehicle
Toyota Carolla Beyond China government’s definition to NEV
MHEV: mild hybrid electric vehicle
Nissan Murano
Lexus ES
PHEV: plug-in hybrid electric vehicle
© 2020 LMC Automotive Limited, All Rights Reserved.
Subsidy will extend to 2022, but the amount will decrease slightly
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
PHEV ≥50 100 - 150 150 - 200 200 - 250 250 - 300 300 - 400 ≥ 400
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021F 2022F
Government Policy: Subsidy
BEV Range (Km) Energy Density (Wh/Kg)
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
1.4
90 - 105 105 - 125 125 - 140 140 - 160 ≥ 160
2017 2018 2019
Note:
- 23rd Apr to 22nd Jul 2020 is the
interim period
- subsidy only available for
vehicle’s price below 300,000
RMB, except for battery-
swapped vehicles
0,000 RMB
4
Year
Decrease
2020
10%
2021
20%
2022
30%
Purchase Tax Free
300,000 RMB
Battery- Swapped Vehicles
© 2020 LMC Automotive Limited, All Rights Reserved.
Local governments offer some incentives on NEV since COVID-19 outbreak
Government Policy: Local Government
8
03.03.2020/Guangzhou: 10,000RMB per vehicle
08.05.2020/Hainan: 10,000RMB per vehicle
09.04.2020/Shenzhen: 10,000RMB per vehicle
09.04.2020/Ningbo: 10,000RMB per vehicle
23.04.2020/Shanghai: 5,000RMB for charging fee
25.03.2020/Beijing: 10,000RMB per vehicle Add 20,000NEV car plates
27.05.2020/Shaanxi: 6,000RMB per vehicle
© 2020 LMC Automotive Limited, All Rights Reserved.
Change of test procedure
Revised Dual-Credit regulation published
10
Fuel type Ratio WLTC/NEDC* Gasoline 1.22
Diesel 1.20
LPG 1.16
Gas 1.36
HEV gasoline 1.32
HEV diesel 1.34
PHEV 1.00
Source: *Stefanos Tsiakmakis etc.. From NEDC to WLTP: effect on the type-approval CO2 emissions of light-duty vehicles
Gasoline
Diesel
Gaseous
Plug-in hybrid
Non plug-in hybrid
BEV
FCEV
WLTC
WLTC
CLTC
Fuel consumption
Fuel consumption Electric consumption Pure electric range
Electric consumption Range
TCAFC will adjust according to WLTC
After 2025, all vehicle types will change to CLTC
China Automotive Testing Standard Import Schedule
Type
Before 2025 After 2025
Light Vehicle (CVW≤3.5t)
All types
• Gasoline/Diesel • Hybrid Vehicles • Alternative fuel Vehicle
WLTC
CLTC
• BEV • Fuel Cell Vehicles
CLTC
© 2020 LMC Automotive Limited, All Rights Reserved.
Revised Dual-Credit regulation published
Flexible relationship between NEV credits carry-forward and ICE’s CAFC
12
𝐼𝐶𝐸𝐶𝐴𝐹𝐶𝑆𝐶𝐴𝐹𝐶
≤ 123%
2019 NEV positive credit
2020 NEV positive credit
2021 or after NEV positive credit
year +1 year +2 year +3 year +4
100% 50% off 50% off
50% off 50% off 50% off
50% off 50% off 50% off
Data source: MIIT, LMC Automotive
© 2020 LMC Automotive Limited, All Rights Reserved.
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
8% 10% 12% 14% 16% 18%
BEV
PHEV
FCEV
0.5 0.3 0.2Low Fuel Consumption (LFC) Vehicle -
Standard credit per vehicle
0.012*R+0.8 0.0056*R+0.4
2.0 1.6
0.16*P 0.08*P
previous new
Year
required quota
a) New NEV quota is set for 2021-2023
b) Standard credit per vehicle is declined
c) New concept, LFC, is proposed
Revised Dual-Credit regulation published
13
Data source: MIIT, LMC Automotive
© 2020 LMC Automotive Limited, All Rights Reserved.
What are LFCs
14
L/100km
3.00
4.00
5.00
6.00
7.00
8.00
9.00
Fuel Consumption Target Value 2021 LFC condition(123%)
2022 LFC condition(120%) 2023 LFC condition(115%)
1090 2510 Curb Mass (kg)
T=6.57
T=4.02
LFC Assessment requirement: Comprehensive fuel consumption ≤ Vehicle target value x Annual compliance requirement
Data source: MIIT, LMC Automotive
© 2020 LMC Automotive Limited, All Rights Reserved.
LFCs has coefficient bonus when calculating the output
It gives OEMs more options in powertrain fitment not only focusing on pure electricity
Japanese OEMs will benefit from it as their have LFCs
What is LFCs
5.17 5.51
5.85
6.95
7.73 8.08
4.00
5.00
6.00
7.00
8.00
9.00
1090 1350 1500 2000 2350 2510
2021 2022 2023
Camry HEV Accord HEV
Odyssey HEV
15
L/100km
kg
Corolla HEV
Crider HEV
© 2020 LMC Automotive Limited, All Rights Reserved.
What will be the impact by LFC?
For example
16
Version 1.0 Version 2.0 ICE 30,000 30,000 Low fuel consumption* 20,000 20,000 NEV Percentage 14% 14% NEV Standard Credit (30,000+20,000)*10%=5,000 (30,000+20,000*0.5)*10%=4000
NEV Credit
NEV Actual Credit
NEV Standard Credit
Credit per NEV Vehicle
NEV Total Volume
NEV Standard Percentage
ICE Total Volume
ICE LFC *0.5
© 2020 LMC Automotive Limited, All Rights Reserved.
CAFC performance
CAFC has met the target, but there is still lots of pressure in the following years
17
6.43 6.05 5.8 5.56 4.60
6.88 6.78 6.62 6.48
0
1.5
3
4.5
6
7.5
2016 2017 2018 2019 2023 Target
CAFC with NEV bonus* CAFC without NEV**L/100km
𝐶𝐴𝐹𝐶 = 𝐹𝐶𝑖 × 𝑉𝑖𝑁𝑖=1
𝑉𝑖𝑁𝑖=1 ×𝑾𝒊
bonus coefficient
TCAFC target is becoming smaller
CAFC is becoming bigger due to Wi
smaller
2019 5.5 3.0
2020 5.0 2.0
2021 4.9 2.0
2022 4.8 1.8
2023 4.6 1.6
YearTCAFC
L/100kmMultiple of vehicle/WiCAFC credit = (TCAFC – CAFC) * output
© 2020 LMC Automotive Limited, All Rights Reserved.
The more NEV share, the better CAFC performance
Some major OEMs CAFC performance
18 Data source: MIIT LMC Automotive
Geely
SAIC
FAW-VW
Brilliance BWM
SGM
FAW-Toyota
SVW
GAC-Toyota
Beijing-Benz
DF-Honda
GAC-Honda
GAC
Great Wall
2017
SAIC
Geely
Brilliance BWM
GAC-Toyota
FAW-VW
FAW-Toyota
SVW
Great Wall
Beijing-Benz
DF-Honda
GAC
GAC-Honda
SGM
2018
SAIC
GAC
Brilliance BWM
GAC-Toyota
Great Wall
FAW-Toyota
Geely
GAC-Honda
DF-Honda
SVW
Beijing-Benz
FAW-VW
SGM
2019
Positive credit: Actual value < standard value
© 2020 LMC Automotive Limited, All Rights Reserved.
NEV credit performance
19
4.1% 6.8%
16.5%
22.8% 20.2%
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 (Jan-Aug)
Actual NEV quota
3.00 2.90
3.60
4.20 4.10
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 (Jan-Aug)
NEV credit per vehicle
NEV credit is surplus, but will decrease sharply under new regulation
0
2
4
6
8
Tesla Model3 standardrange
BYD Han Luxury NIO ES8 2020 415KM NIO ES6 2020 430KMperformance
Trumpchi Aion S Buick Velite6
under previous policy under new policy
2020 target 12%
units
units
© 2020 LMC Automotive Limited, All Rights Reserved.
-47.0%
-71.9%
-45.7%
-30.8% -24.0%
-32.4%
28.7%
23%
-100%
0%
100%
200%
300%
400%
500%
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180Ja
n-1
8
Feb
-18
Mar
-18
Ap
r-1
8
May
-18
Jun
-18
Jul-
18
Au
g-1
8
Sep
-18
Oct
-18
No
v-1
8
Dec
-18
Jan
-19
Feb
-19
Mar
-19
Ap
r-1
9
May
-19
Jun
-19
Jul-
19
Au
g-1
9
Sep
-19
Oct
-19
No
v-1
9
Dec
-19
Jan
-20
Feb
-20
Mar
-20
Ap
r-2
0
May
-20
Jun
-20
Jul-
20
Au
g-2
0
Tho
usa
nd
s
EREV
PHEV
BEV
YoY
NEV market saw 29% decline in Q2
21 Data source: CAAM, LMC Automotive
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Tho
usa
nd
s
2017
2018
2019
2020
Q2 market improved greatly from Q1, but demand was still at a low level
© 2020 LMC Automotive Limited, All Rights Reserved.
NEV sales decline by major segment and OEMs
22
-49%
-64%
-55% 118%
-39%
BEV sales (Thousand) PHEV sales (Thousand)
NEV sales (Thousand)
-42%
-54%
-70% -85%
-13% -93%
-37%
-55% -71%
-23% -8% -39%
© 2020 LMC Automotive Limited, All Rights Reserved.
Global brands starting to taking more and more share in NEV market
0.0%
20.0%
40.0%
60.0%
80.0%
100.0%
20
18
01
20
18
02
20
18
03
20
18
04
20
18
05
20
18
06
20
18
07
20
18
08
20
18
09
20
18
10
20
18
11
20
18
12
20
19
01
20
19
02
20
19
03
20
19
04
20
19
05
20
19
06
20
19
07
20
19
08
20
19
09
20
19
10
20
19
11
20
19
12
20
20
01
20
20
02
20
20
03
20
20
04
20
20
05
20
20
06
20
20
07
20
20
08
BEV
US
KR
JP
EU
CN
Global brands sales keep rising in NEV sector
23
0.0%
20.0%
40.0%
60.0%
80.0%
100.0%
PHEV
Data source: CAAM, LMC Automotive
© 2020 LMC Automotive Limited, All Rights Reserved.
-3.0%
1.0%
5.0%
9.0%
13.0%
17.0%
21.0%
25.0%
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
Jun
-18
Jul-
18
Au
g-1
8
Sep
-18
Oct
-18
No
v-1
8
De
c-1
8
Jan
-19
Feb
-19
Mar
-19
Ap
r-1
9
May
-19
Jun
-19
Jul-
19
Au
g-1
9
Sep
-19
Oct
-19
No
v-1
9
De
c-1
9
Jan
-20
Feb
-20
Mar
-20
Ap
r-2
0
May
-20
Jun
-20
Jul-
20
Au
g-2
0
Tho
usa
nd
s
NIO Xpeng Weltmeister Model 3 (domestic)
NIO share Xpeng share Weltmeister share Model 3 (domestic) share
NEV market: a volatile environment continues… New start-up companies facing more direct competition from Tesla
Meanwhile Tesla is struggling with disruption of supply chain due to low local content rate.
24 Data source: insurance data, LMC Automotive
© 2020 LMC Automotive Limited, All Rights Reserved.
Outlook
28
NEV market is disturbed by COVID-19 in 2020, but will grow in the long-term
124 227 466
792 882 795
3,025
61 94
114
296 230 212
909
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020F 2025F
Tho
usa
nd
s
BEV PHEV EREV
Data source: MIIT, LMC Automotive
© 2020 LMC Automotive Limited, All Rights Reserved.
Change
Kevin Riddell, Senior Manager
Global Light Vehicle Powertrain Briefing
8 October 2020
US LV Electrification In Turbulent Times
© 2020 LMC Automotive Limited, All Rights Reserved.
Contents
2
US Electrification Environment
US EV Sales Outlook
North American EV Production Outlook
Alternative Scenarios
© 2020 LMC Automotive Limited, All Rights Reserved.
The Last 4 Months Have Been Busy!
3
June: Washington state adopted California ZEV regulations.
June: The new SAFE regulations take effect.
California restricted from instituting more stringent CO2 standards.
August: California finalizes voluntary agreements with BMW, Ford,
Honda, VW, Volvo to meet stricter fuel economy standards.
August: A reduction in fines imposed by NHTSA for missing fuel
economy targets reversed in U.S. Court of Appeals.
September: Governor of California files and Executive Order that by
2035 new LV sales are to be Zero Emission.
© 2020 LMC Automotive Limited, All Rights Reserved.
Presidential Elections in November
4
VS.
Track record of reducing/removing environmental regulations to boost the economy.
Ensure the U.S. achieves a 100% clean energy economy and net-zero emission no later than 2050.
© 2020 LMC Automotive Limited, All Rights Reserved.
Contents
5
US Electrification Environment
US EV Sales Outlook
North American EV Production Outlook
Alternative Scenarios
© 2020 LMC Automotive Limited, All Rights Reserved.
Source: JATO Dynamics, OEMs
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70T
housands
BEV FCEV PHEV HEV
A Rough First Half of the Year for EVs
Despite steady supply of new products, increased sales has been slow.
In first half of the year BEV sales down.
6
© 2020 LMC Automotive Limited, All Rights Reserved.
A Closer Look at BEV Sales
7
• Coronavirus significantly
lowered near-term BEV sales.
• BEVs stated as top priority.
• Stable incentives.
• Many new entries coming. 0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1,000
201
5
201
6
201
7
201
8
201
9
202
0
202
1
202
2
202
3
Thousan
ds
US LV BEV Sales
2020 Outlook from 2019 Q4: 288,000
2020 Outlook from 2020 Q3: 215,000
BEV Topline Change: 25%
BEV Market Share: 1.5%
Source: JATO Dynamics, OEMs, LMC Automotive
© 2020 LMC Automotive Limited, All Rights Reserved.
0
1
2
3
4
5
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
Mill
ions
xHEV PHEV BEV
Electrification Outlook
Source: LMC Automotive 8
© 2020 LMC Automotive Limited, All Rights Reserved.
EV segment trends – CAGR 2019-2030
9
Non-premium Segments
Premium Segments 15%
SUV Pickup Car/Sporty MPV/Van
17%
SUV Pickup Car/Sporty MPV/Van
100%
40% 3% 27% 23%
7% 8% 23%
Source: LMC Automotive
© 2020 LMC Automotive Limited, All Rights Reserved.
BEV segment trends – CAGR 2019-2030
10
Non-premium Segments
Premium Segments 10%
SUV Pickup Car/Sporty MPV/Van
30%
SUV Pickup Car/Sporty MPV/Van
100%
139% 2% 36% 51%
2% 8% 27%
Source: LMC Automotive
© 2020 LMC Automotive Limited, All Rights Reserved.
Content
11
US Electrification Environment
US EV Sales Outlook
North American EV Production Outlook
Alternative Scenarios
© 2020 LMC Automotive Limited, All Rights Reserved.
NA Electrified Light Vehicle Production
12
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
20
19
20
20
20
21
20
22
20
23
20
24
20
25
Millio
ns
BEV PHEV HEV
BEV growth from
established OEMs
and startups.
BEV, FHEV, MHEV
production shares
trending at similar
rates.
Electrification
strategy varies
significantly
between OEMs.
Source: LMC Automotive
© 2020 LMC Automotive Limited, All Rights Reserved.
NA EV Light Vehicle Battery Requirement
13
0
20
40
60
80
100
1202
01
5
20
16
20
17
20
18
20
19
20
20
20
21
20
22
20
23
20
24
20
25
Battery Requirements (GWh) for NA Light Vehicle Production
Estimated 106 GWh
of storage capacity
required for 2025.
Larger battery packs
accelerating the
curve.
Avg BEV pack capacity
(kWh) 2015: 57 2020: 72 2025: 86
Source: LMC Automotive
© 2020 LMC Automotive Limited, All Rights Reserved.
Content
14
US Electrification Environment
US EV Sales Outlook
North American EV Production Outlook
Alternative Scenarios
© 2020 LMC Automotive Limited, All Rights Reserved.
0
1
2
3
4
5
2018 2021 2024 2027 2030
Millio
ns
US Light EV Sales
HEV PHEV BEV
SAFE entrenched. No ZEV regulations.
Higher percentage of HEV are 48-volt.
BEVs still see significant growth, but slower.
California/OEM agreement supporting EV
sales.
2030 Change over
Baseline
XEV: -14%
BEV: -24%
Republicans Win in November, California Lawsuit Fails
Source: LMC Automotive 15
© 2020 LMC Automotive Limited, All Rights Reserved.
State ZEV membership growing.
Larger infrastructure ease plug-in anxiety.
Tougher future CO2 targets?
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
2018 2021 2024 2027 2030
Millio
ns
US Light EV Sales
HEV PHEV BEV
2030 Change over
Baseline
XEV: +67%
BEV: +60%
Source: LMC Automotive
Democrats Win in November, California Lawsuit Win
16
© 2020 LMC Automotive Limited, All Rights Reserved.
In Conclusion
17
Highly fluid US market providing plenty of uncertainty for electrification
rollout.
COVID-19, SAFE regulations, SAFE litigation, presidential elections
Many factors continue helping BEV sales increase.
Consumer costs continue falling, more diverse products, sustained
incentives, continued infrastructure investments
NA EV production base remains important despite the US losing its global
sales lead.
Strong investments, high quantity of local talent
© 2020 LMC Automotive Limited, All Rights Reserved.
LCVs
David Leah, Senior Analyst
Global Light Vehicle Powertrain Briefing
8th October 2020
The European LCV xEV Market
© 2020 LMC Automotive Limited, All Rights Reserved.
Current Situation Topline
1.5
1.75
2
2.25
2.5
2.75
3
Mill
ions
COVID-19
impact Eurozone crisis
Recovery
Long term looks positive. Demand to
be driven by various factors, such as:
Shift in consumer behavior to
online shopping/e-commerce
Downsizing trends from HGVs to
LCVs (agile supply chains)
Rise of last-mile delivery
Environmental Factors: rise in
xEVs/CO2targets/Incentives/ZEZs
/ICE bans/Social reasonability
etc.…
= boost renewals
-16% YoY
© 2020 LMC Automotive Limited, All Rights Reserved.
Current Situation Fuel Type
3
~10K ~ 50K
0.5%
4.9%
2016
93.6%
xEV
Petrol
Diesel
Other* CNG, LPG
1.0%
1.1%
6.7%
2018
91.2%
1.0%
2.4%
5.7%
2020
90.9%
1.0%
CAGR = 48.6%
xEV set to account for ~2.4% of sales in 2020 (2% YTD)
xEV demand has increased at a CAGR of 48.6%, albeit low base
Diesel has remained the dominant fuel type (TCO & >torque benefits versus petrol)
Key
© 2020 LMC Automotive Limited, All Rights Reserved.
40%
36%
24% Small vans
Medium vans
Large vans
Current Situation Snapshot
4
Total xEV sales
+15% YTD
23k units YTD
2 1
3
Renault Kangoo
best selling
model
France market
leaders in volume
terms ~6k
units YTD
Norway highest
xEV market
share ~7%
YTD
~75% of xEV
sales = BEVs
40% of xEV sales small
or car-derived sized vans
YTD
© 2020 LMC Automotive Limited, All Rights Reserved.
260
190 180
12080
170
90 110
500
300400
100 100
400 400
200
800900
700
500
300
600
800 800
5
Current Situation YTD Analysis
900800
500
100
400
1,800
700500
J F M A M J J A YTD (Jan – Aug)
+0.1%
+8%
+210%
-35%
YTD Sales
6,000
5,500
2,500
1,200
Market share* %
~2.5%
~3.5%
~2.5%
~6.5%
*Of respective market
© 2020 LMC Automotive Limited, All Rights Reserved. 6
Current Situation OEM Analysis
© 2020 LMC Automotive Limited, All Rights Reserved.
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
0.0
0.4
0.8
1.2
1.6
2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032
Mil
lio
ns
BEV PHEV HEV FCEV ICE %
Forecast xEV Outlook
7
BEVs to account for around a
third of sales by 2032.
ICE vehicles set to account for
around 50% of total sales by
2032.
Tipping point for LCVs to be
around mid-2020
Note: PHEV includes EREV.HEV includes MHEV (48V), MHEV & FHEV.
© 2020 LMC Automotive Limited, All Rights Reserved.
Forecast xEV Model Launches
8
Note: Includes Vans & Pick-ups only. PHEV includes EREV. HEV includes MHEV (48V), MHEV & FHEV
610
23
4348
2
5
7
4
6
12
1
2
3
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
2016 2018 2020 2022 2025
BEV PHEV HEV FCEV
Average CO2 A seven fold
increase in model launches
between 2018 and 2025.
Competition set to intensify
putting pressure on OEMs.
© 2020 LMC Automotive Limited, All Rights Reserved.
0
25
50
75
100
125
150
175
200
2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030
Industry Factors CO2 emission targets
9
2017: 175 g/km
2020: 147 g/km
2025: 125 g/km
2030: 101 g/km
Historical emissions
Average CO2 emissions of new
vans in the EU will have to be
15% lower in 2025 and 31% in
2030 compared to the 2021
target.
The ZLEV credit system
enables OEMs with an xEV (0
to 50g/km) share >15% in 2025
and >30% in 2030 to benefit
from less stringent CO2
requirements (capped at 5%).
Note: Figures are expressed in NEDC terms.*The binding emission targets for OEMs are set according to the average mass of their vehicles
Source: European Commission; ICCT
© 2020 LMC Automotive Limited, All Rights Reserved.
Industry Factors Incentives
10
Tax Benefits Purchase Incentives Max (€) Subsidy
Acquisition Ownership Company Car Incentives
Source: ACEA
≤20g CO2/km up to €7k subsidy
(6k from 2021)
≤50g CO2/km up to €6k govt + €3k
OEM subsidy (until 2022)
≤75g CO2/km & ≥16 km battery
range = up to €8k subsidy
Tax based on Weight, CO2 & Nox
levels: ~20 to 30% of passenger
car rates
≥30 km battery range = €4.4k
subsidy, rising to €6k if vehicle
scrapped
≤60g CO2/km up to ~€6k subsidy
© 2020 LMC Automotive Limited, All Rights Reserved.
ICE phase-out targets
Industry Factors ICE Bans / ZEZs
11
2025 2030 2035 2040
Norway Denmark
Netherlands
UK
Spain Sweden
Iceland
Scotland (2032)
London
2025
Proposed city-wide Zero
Emission Zones (ZEZ)/ICE
bans
Note: Phase out targets may exempt vans in some countries.
Source: ICCT
Note: On the whole, targets are progressive, starting in
specific urban areas before expanding to entire city
bans. In addition, some bans target diesel vehicles,
others all ICE.
*This slide does not include every country/city which
has announced ICE bans.
France Paris
2024
Oslo
2024
Amsterdam
2030
Rome
2030
Govt. national phase-out targets
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Oxford Detroit Bangkok Shanghai
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