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Alan Copeland
May 2010
Electricity generationMajor development projects
April 2010 listing
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Commonwealth of Australia 2010
This work is copyright. TheCopyright Act 1968permits fair dealing for study, research, newsreporting, criticism or review. Selected passages, tables or diagrams may be reproduced for
such purposes provided acknowledgment of the source is included. Major extracts or theentire document may not be reproduced by any process without the written permission of the
Executive Director, ABARE.
ISSN 1447-8358
ISBN 978-1-921448-45-4
Copeland, A2010, Electricity generation major development projects April 2010 listing, Canberra, May.
Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics
Postal address GPO Box 1563 Canberra ACT 2601 Australia
Location 7B London Circuit Canberra ACT 2601
Switchboard +61 2 6272 2000
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ABARE is a professionally independent government economic research agency.
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Electricity generation
Major development projects April 2010 listingAlan Copeland
As at the end of April 2010, there were 15 major electricity generation projects at an
advanced stage with a total generating capacity of 2687 megawatts (MW) and value ofaround $4.9 billion.
There were a further 127 projects at a less advanced stage of development at that time.
ABAREs list of major electricity generation developmentprojects
ABARE has been compiling its biannual list of major electricity generation projects sinceOctober 2008. The list includes electricity generation projects based on black and brown coal,
oil, natural gas, coal seam gas and renewable energy sources (solar, wind, hydro, biomass andwave). The information draws predominantly on publicly available sources but, in some cases,
is supplemented by information provided directly by companies.
ABAREs list provides details of each announced project where the total capacity is expectedto exceed 30 megawatts. By setting a threshold of 30 megawatts, a number of electricity
generation fuels are under represented on the list, including solar energy and biomass. Whilesmall scale electricity generation units have an important role to play in Australias electricity
supply, it is not feasible to attempt to collect data across all potential projects.
In general, the included projects are at relatively advanced stages of planning, that is, theyrange from planning approval underway through to under construction.
The major development projects list of April 2010 contains information on 142 projects, with
the following details:
project name location
expected startup date
capital cost of the project
proponent company or joint venture
project status
additional output capacity
additional employment at the construction and operating stages, where available.
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With a focus on projects planned to commence generation during the next few years, projects
at more advanced stages of planning (those identified as committed or under construction)are grouped together and listed first within each principal energy source. These projects
appear in the blue shaded areas of the table. Projects at less advanced planning stages (for
example, those at planning approval stage) follow within each energy source and appear inthe yellow shaded areas. The listing includes new greenfield projects as well as expansion ofexisting projects.
The list is only available as an electronic product and can be downloaded from www.abare.
gov.au.
The long-term outlook for Australias electricity
generation sectorIn March 2010, ABARE released Australian energy projections to 2029-30 which identifiedpotential changes to Australias electricity generation sector over the next two decades
under certain assumptions. These assumption included, population growth, economicgrowth, energy prices, electricity generation technologies, end use energy technologies and
government policies. For further information on underlying assumptions and the model used,please refer to the Australian energy projections to 2029-30 (which can be downloaded at
www.abare.gov.au).
The electricity generation major projects list and article identifies some of the individual
electricity generation projects that will support future electricity supply.
1 Electricity generation, by fuel terawatt hours (TWh)average annual
share (%) growth (%)
2007-08 2029-30 2007-08 2029-30 2007-08 to 2029-30
Non- renewables 229 297 93 81 1.2
Coal 178 157 72 43 0.6
Black coal 131 121 53 33 0.4 Brown coal 47 36 19 10 1.2
Gas 46 135 19 37 5.0
Oil 5 5 2 1 0.0
Renewables 18 69 7 19 6.4
Hydro 12 13 5 3 0.2
Wind 4 44 2 12 11.6
Bioenergy 2 3
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Gross electricity generation in Australia is projected to grow over the outlook period by an averageof 1.8 per cent a year, from 889 petajoules (247 terawatt hours) in 2007-08 to 1318 petajoules
(366 terawatt hours) in 2029-30.
Under an assumed policy setting that includes both the expanded Renewable Energy Target(RET) and a 5 per cent carbon emissions reduction target below 2005 levels by 2020, the
relative shares of non-renewables and renewables in electricity generation are expected tochange significantly over the projection period to 2029-30. In 2007-08, 93 per cent of electricity
was generated from non-renewables (coal, oil and gas) and the balance from renewableenergy sources. Under these policy settings, the share of renewables is projected to increase to
around 20 per cent by 2019-20 and remain broadly at that level until the end of the projectionperiod. This reflects the effect of the RET, which requires a ramp up of renewable energy in theperiod to 2020. After 2019-20, renewable electricity generation continues to increase, albeit at a
slower rate.
Within the category of non-renewable energy, the key change projected over the outlookperiod is a substitution away from coal-fired generation to gas-fired generation. While coal is
expected to continue to dominate the electricity fuel mix under the assumed policy setting,emission pricing leads to a switch away from higher-emission energy sources for electricity
generation. Coal-fired electricity (both black and brown coal) generation is projected todecrease at an average rate of 0.6 per cent a year over the projection period (table 1), leading
to a fall in its share from 72 per cent in the base year to 43 per cent in 2029-30.
Further, the longer term role of coal is heavily dependent on technological developmentsrelated to carbon capture and storage. The timing for the deployment of carbon capture and
storage (CCS) technologies hinges on the economic viability of this technology given emissionprices.
A large part of the decline in coal based electricity is taken up by gas-fired generation
technologies. The share of gas in electricity generation is projected to grow from 19 percent in 2007-08 to 37 per cent in 2029-30. Gas-fired electricity generation is based on mature
technologies with more competitive cost structures relative to many renewable energytechnologies. As such, it has the potential to play a major role in the transition period until
lower-emission technologies become more viable. However, the cost competitiveness of gasas a fuel for electricity generation depends on gas prices.
In parallel with the increasing share of gas in the electricity fuel mix, these projections highlightthe significant expansion in the use of non-hydro renewable energy resources between
2007-08 and 2029-30. Wind energy is projected to account for the majority of the increase inelectricity generation from renewable sources over the projection period. Wind is projected to
account for 12 per cent of electricity generation in 2029-30. Within the renewable technologycluster, wind energy is a proven technology with relatively lower costs, notwithstanding the
influence of site specific factors on these costs.
Given Australias large potential bioenergy resources, the potential commercialisation of
second generation technologies using a new range of non-edible biomass feedstocks,and the RET, bioenergy has the potential to make a growing contribution to renewable
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electricity generation in Australia. However, this growth prospect is likely to be constrainedby competition for bioenergy resources, water availability and logistical issues associated with
handling, transport and storage.
In these projections, bioenergy for electricity generation is projected to grow by 2.3 per a yearover the period to 2029-30 but will still account for less than 1 per cent of electricity generated
in that year. A significant proportion of the projected growth in the use of bioenergy forelectricity generation is projected to occur in Queensland.
In comparison, solar energy is projected to grow at an average annual rate of 17 per cent, albeit
from a very low base. Electricity generation from solar energy in Australia is currently almostentirely sourced from photo voltaic installations. Electricity generation from solar thermalsystems is currently limited to small pilot projects, although interest in solar thermal systems
for large scale electricity generation is increasing.
The high investment costs of solar technologies represent the most important barrier totheir deployment. However, there is considerable scope for the cost of these technologies to
decline significantly over time. The competitiveness of solar energy and renewable energysources generally will also depend on government policies aimed at reducing greenhouse
gas emissions. In this context, the RET, the Clean Energy Initiative and the assumed carbonemissions reduction target are all expected to underpin the growth of solar energy in Australia
over the outlook period.
As with solar energy, Australia is considered to have considerable geothermal energypotential (AERA 2010), although Australias geothermal resources are currently sub-economic
because the commercial viability of the necessary technologies in Australia has not yet beendemonstrated. Electricity generation from geothermal energy in Australia is currently limited
to pilot power plants producing small amounts of electricity. In addition, a major impedimentto geothermal electricity generation in Australia is the distance of many of the resources from
existing transmission lines or consumption centres.
In these projections, geothermal energy is projected to account for 1.6 per cent of electricitygeneration by 2029-30.
Hydroelectricity generation is projected to remain broadly unchanged over the outlook period,
reflecting the limited availability of suitable locations for the expansion of large grid-basedhydroelectricity generation and water supply constraints. Most of the projected expansionin capacity is assumed to be associated with the upgrading of existing equipment and small
scale schemes.
Completed projects
During the six months to April 2010, there were seven electricity generation projects completed;
two wind powered, one coal, one coal seam gas, one natural gas, one oil and one hydropowered project. The seven projects have an electricity generation capacity total of around
1400 megawatts and a total capital cost of $1.7 billion. The largest of these projects, in terms
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of generation capacity, was the 660 megawatt, gas-fired Colongra power station, which hada capital expenditure of $500 million and is located at Munmorah on the central coast of New
South Wales. In Queensland, the 140 megawatt coal seam gas-fired Condamine power plant wascompleted at an estimated capital expenditure of $170 million. Also in Queensland, the Mount
Stuart power plant expansion was also completed. The oil-fired power station is owned by OriginEnergy and was expanded by 126 megawatts to 418 megawatts at a cost of $92 million. The other
non-renewable power station completed in the six months to April 2010 was Griffin Energyssecond stage of the Bluewaters power station. This coal-fired power station has a generation
capacity of 208 megawatts and a capital cost of around $400 million.
There were three renewable energy projects completed in the six months to April 2010; two
wind powered and a hydro powered project. Both wind projects, Clements Gap and Hallet2, are located in South Australia and have capacities of 57 megawatts and 71 megawatts,
respectively. The construction cost for Clements Gap was $135 million, while Hallet 2 was builtat a cost of $159 million. The Bogong Power Development, located in the Victorian Alps, will
add 140 megawatts of capacity at a cost of $240 million.
Advanced projects
At the end of April 2010, there were 15 projects at advanced stages of development. Theseprojects are either committed or under construction and have a total capacity of 2687
megawatts (figure a). This is equivalent to 6 per cent of Australias total generating capacityas at June 2008. The location of projects is widespread, with at least one advanced project in
every state and the Northern Territory. (figure b).
2 Major electricity generation developments projects completedNovember 2009 April 2010 capital
fuel project location company capacity expenditureMW A$m
Black coal Bluewaters stage 2 WA Griffin Energy 208 400
Coal seam gas Condamine Qld BG Group/ANZ 140 170
Infrastructure Services
Gas Colongra NSW Delta Electricity 660 500
Oil Mount Stuart Qld Origin Energy 126 92
Hydro Bogong Power Development Vic AGL 140 240
Wind Clements Gap SA Pacific Hydro 57 135
Wind Hallet 2 SA AGL 71 159
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completed in 2010. The project has a capacity of 550 megawatts and a capital cost of $640 million.A second 450 megawatt unit at the complex may be built by Origin Energy at a later date.
There are two gas-fired power projects at an advanced stage in Western Australia; the Kwinana
Power Station rebuild and Kwinana Swift. The Kwinana Power Station rebuild will result in twonew 100 megawatt gas-fired turbines being installed at a cost of around $260 million at the
existing Kwinana power station. The project is scheduled to be completed in late 2011. TheKwinana Power Station rebuild is the only non-renewable power project to be added to the list
at an advanced stage. The other gas project in Western Australia is the Kwinana Swift powerstation which will have a capacity of 120 megawatts and a capital expenditure of $120 million.
The fourth gas-fired power station at an advanced stage is Owen Springs in the NorthernTerritory. The 33 megawatt power project has a capital expenditure of $126 million and is
scheduled to be completed in mid 2010. Included in the capital cost of the Owen Springs
expansion is an upgrade of existing transmission and distribution infrastructure.
Victoria
TasmaniaTasmania
Queensland
Northern Territory
Western Australia
South Australia
New South Wales
Advanced electricity generation projectsApril 20101
capital city
Darling Downs
Crookwell 2
Gunning
Musselroe
Hallett 4Hallett 5
Waterloo stage 1
Mortlake stage 1
Lake Bonney stage 3
Kwinana Swift
Kwinana PowerStation rebuild
Collgar Wind Farm
gas
hydro
oil
solar
wind
CSM
black coal
biomass
LEGEND
0100MW
101300MW
301500MW
>500MW
PerthAdelaideAdelaide
Hobart
Brisbane
Canberra
Perth
Darwin
Sydney
MelbourneMelbourne
Eraring
OaklandsWind Farm
Owen Springs
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Renewable energy projectsAt the end of April 2010, there were nine renewable energy projects at an advanced stage ofdevelopment, which were all wind powered.
During the six months to April 2010, there were three wind projects added to the advanced list;Collgar in Western Australia, Gunning in New South Wales and Hallet 5 in South Australia.
The largest of these projects, in terms of generation capacity, is the Collgar wind farm withan expected capacity of 206 megawatts. This would make Collgar the largest wind farm in
Australia. The project has a capital cost of $750 million and is scheduled for completion in 2012.The Gunning wind farm, located in the Southern Highlands of New South Wales is expected tohave a generation capacity of 47 megawatts and a capital cost of $140 million. Hallet 5, which
is located in South Australia, has a capacity of 52 megawatts, a construction cost of around$140 million and a scheduled completion date of 2011.
Of the other six wind farms, three are located in South Australia and one each in New South
Wales, Victoria and Tasmania. The largest wind farm under construction in South Australia is Hallet4 (North Brown Hill) which has a capacity of 132 megawatts and a capital cost of $341 million. The
other two wind farms under construction in South Australia are Waterloo Stage 1 (111 megawatts)and Lake Bonney (39 megawatts).
In Tasmania, the 168 megawatt Musselroe wind farm is under construction with an estimated
capital cost of $425 million. Construction is also under way on Union Fernosa Wind AustraliasCrookwell 2 project located in the southern tablelands of New South Wales. The project will
have an electricity generation capacity of 92 megawatts and a capital cost of $238 million.The Oaklands Wind Farm in Victoria will have a generation capacity of 67 megawatts when
operational in 2011 and has an estimated capital cost of $200 million.
At the end of April 2010, the average capacity of projects using natural gas and wind wasaround 220 megawatts and 101 megawatts, respectively (figure c). Given that a large
proportion of advanced and less advanced projects will be using gas and wind, these energysources will account for an increasing proportion of power generation.
c Average capacity of advanced projects, by energy source, April 2010
MW 700600500400300200100
wind
gas
coal seam gas
black coal
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Electricity generation projects in Australia using solar energy do not feature prominently inABAREs listing, largely because these tend to be below the 30 megawatt threshold.
Less advanced projectsProjects in the less advanced category are either still undergoing a feasibility study (in somecases, prefeasibility study) or not subject to a definite decision on development following the
completion of a feasibility study. Some of these projects may not proceed for several years.Some may confront changes in economic conditions or may be targeting the same emerging
market opportunities, necessitating rescheduling. In addition, securing finance for projectdevelopment may also be an issue.
Despite the uncertainty inherent to projects at these earlier stages of consideration, there is a
significant number of large scale projects at less advanced planning stages. These projects, ifcompleted, are expected to provide a firm platform for future growth in Australian electricitygeneration in the medium term and beyond.
Of the 142 projects in ABAREs April 2010 projects list, 89 per cent (127 projects) are less
advanced.Table 4contains a summary of the numbers and fuel distribution by state of the127 less advanced projects, together with an aggregated capacity f igure.
4 Number of less advanced projects, April 2010potential
NSW Vic Qld WA SA Tas NT ACT Aust capacity
MW
Fossil-fuel based
Brown coal 0 1 0 0 3 0 0 0 4 1 710
Black coal 0 0 3 3 0 0 0 0 6 1 950
Coal seam gas 4 0 4 0 0 0 0 0 8 1 750
Gas 13 5 4 1 0 0 0 1 24 9 063
Oil 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 150
TBD 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 4 000
Sub-total 20 6 12 4 3 0 0 1 45 18 123
Renewable energy
Wind 16 31 4 3 16 2 0 0 72 10 469
Wave 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 1 3 786
Biomass 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 180
Solar 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 2 102
Geothermal 0 2 0 0 2 0 0 0 4 245
Sub-total 16 34 4 3 19 4 1 1 82 11 782
Total 36 40 16 7 22 4 1 2 127 30 405
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Non-renewable electricity generation projectsAt the end of April 2010 there were 45 non-renewable electricity generation projects at a lessadvanced stage, of which 24 are natural gas-fired and eight are coal seam gas-fired plants.
There are six black coal and four brown coal-fired plants and an oil-fired power plant underconsideration. There are two power plants in New South Wales, Bayswater B and Mt Piperexpansion, for which a decision has yet to be made as to whether they will be coal or gas-fired.
The proposed Bayswater B and Mt Piper expansion are the two largest projects on the list with
a potential capacity of 2000 megawatts each and are scheduled to be in operation around themiddle of this decade.
Another potential large project is the 840 megawatt gas-fired power station AGL is proposing
to build near Tarrone in south western Victoria. AGL is also proposing to build several largegas-fired power stations including two in south east Queensland (capacity of 360 megawatts
and 1150 megawatts), and one near Townsville (360 megawatts), Sydney (350 megawatts) andsouth west New South Wales (250-780 megawatts initially).
There are also a number of coal seam gas-based power stations that are at a less advanced
stage. These include Braemar 3 (450 megawatts), Spring Gully stages 1 and 2 (1000 megawatts)and the Mungi Power Generation project (30 megawatts) in Queensland; and stages 1 and 2
of the Narrabri project (210 megawatts) and Richmond Valley power station (30 megawatts) inNew South Wales.
Renewable energy projectsAt the end of April 2010, there were 82 less advanced renewable energy projects of which
72 are wind farms, accounting for around 90 per cent of the proposed addition to renewableenergy capacity. The significant number of proposed wind powered electricity projects,
in part, ref lects the RET and the cost competitiveness of wind relative to other less maturerenewable energy technologies.
The largest wind energy project is the Silverton Wind Farm in New South Wales with a planned
capacity of 1000 megawatts. If developed, the wind farm will be the largest in the southernhemisphere and one of the largest in the world. The project is scheduled to be completed in
2011 at a capital cost of $2.2 billion.
AGL and Meridians Macarthur wind project in Victoria has conditional company approval andan announced capacity of 365 megawatts.
Projects new to ABAREs list
There are 10 projects new to the list since October 2009. Of the new projects, there are fourgas-fired power stations, two wind and two geothermal power projects and one coal and one
coal seam gas-based power project (figure d).
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The largest of the non-renewable power projects is the Galilee Power Project in CentralQueensland, which is being developed by a subsidiary of Waratah Coal. The 900 megawatt
power station will incorporate carbon capture and storage technologies and source coal fromWaratah Coals proposed adjacent mine. The capital expenditure associated with the Galilee
Power Project is $1.25 billion. Of the gas-fired power stations, the largest new to the list, is AGLsproject near Dalton in south west New South Wales. The project will initially have a capacity of
250-780 megawatts and a capital cost of $250-800 million. A second stage to the project couldbring the power stations total capacity to 1500 megawatts.
Two geothermal projects were added to the list;
the Geelong thermal power project and Koroit.Both are located in Victoria and will be staged
developments. The Geelong thermal powerproject will initially involve the development
of 12 megawatts of capacity followed by anincrease in scale to 140 megawatts. At Koroit, a
10 megawatt demonstration plant is scheduledto be in operation in 2012 followed by a further
40 megawatts of capacity in 2013-14.
geo-thermal
windgasblackcoal
coal seamgas
Projects added to list:six months to April 2010total number = 10
no.
2
3
1
4
d
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RESEARCH FUNDINGABARE relies on financial support from external organisations
to complete its research program. As at the date of this publication, the following
organisations had provided financial support for ABAREs research program in 2007-08
and in 2008-09. We gratefully acknowledge this assistance.
AusAid
Australian Fisheries Management Authority
Australian Government Department of Climate
Change
Australian Government Department of the
Environment, Water , Heritage and the Arts
Australian Government Department of
Infrastructure, Transport, RegionalDevelopment and Local Government.
Australian Government Department of Resources,
Energy and Tourism
CRC Plant Biosecurity
CSIRO (Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial
Research Organisation)
Dairy Australia
Department of Primary Industries, Victoria
DN Harris and Associates
European Commission
Fisheries Research and Development Corporation
Fisheries Resources Research Fund
Forest and Wood Products Australia
Grains Research and Development Corporation
Grape and Wine Research and Development
Corporation
Horticulture Australia
International Food Policy Research Institute
Land and Water Australia
Meat and Livestock Australia
National Australia Bank
OECD
Rural Industries Research and Development
Corporation
The Treasury