A.I.CreatesIntellectual Capital Club
Creating intellectual capital for partnerships in predictive analytics and artificial intelligence
Dr. Valery Tsourikov
Minsk 2012
tm
Valery Tsourikov 2012 (c). All rights reserved
Part 1. Business Model: Slides 3-10
Part 2. Predictive Analytics, A.I. for content generation: Slides 11-26
Valery Tsourikov 2012 (c). All rights reserved
Modern Artificial Intelligence Means Big Business
• Machine Learning, Combinatorial Intelligence, Semantics, Predictive Analytics can generate:– Better content– Faster &– Cheaper, than human team alone
• Business opportunity is really big. For example, over the past five years IBM spent $14B for 24 analytics acquisitions.
How to exploit this mega-trend?
Valery Tsourikov 2012 (c). All rights reserved
Gartner Group. Hot Technologies for 2011-12: Next-Generation Analytics and Social Analytics
Next-Generation Analytics: It is becoming possible to run real-time simulations of each individual business action to predict their future outcome rather than simply providing data about past interactions.
Valery Tsourikov 2012 (c). All rights reserved
Idea of the Intellectual Capital Club
1. Our Ph.D. teams develop A.I. software2. Joint venture is formed with strategic partner or investor3. JV exploits hot market opportunity
World Markets
Joint Venture
Strategic Partner/Investor
A.I. Software Team
Projects •Robust trading systems•Global markets prediction•Credit scoring•HFT platforms•Drug discovery•Business analytics•Marketing trends•Image and video mining•Price prediction: insurance
Valery Tsourikov 2012 (c). All rights reserved
The Idea: To Create Critical Mass of Human Brains Who Will Code A.I. Systems
• In September 2010 we started special course on advanced analytics with a clear business objective:
– To teach best talents to develop A.I. systems for predictive analytics and automatic content generation
As for April 2012, 130 mathematicians and programmers completed the course; many more new researchers will join the Club in 2012
Several new business projects in predictive analytics have already been initiated by course graduates
Valery Tsourikov 2012 (c). All rights reserved
How the Club Works
• We train Ph.D. students in Predictive Analytics and A.I. and invite best graduates to start real software projects
• Then we show prototypes of intelligent systems to potential strategic partners/investors
• Together with partners we exploit hot business opportunities on world markets
Valery Tsourikov 2012 (c). All rights reserved
Course Attendees
Master and Ph.D. students majoring in:- mathematics- artificial intelligence- computer science - econometrics- computer linguistics- financial engineering
We invite only best Ph.D. students from five major universities in Minsk
Valery Tsourikov 2012 (c). All rights reserved
Course Content• A.I. and advanced analytics• Mega-trend: content by A.I.• Machine Learning
- Trees, Kernels- Feature selection- Support Vector Machines - ML application
• Predictive Analytics• A.I. and novelty creation
- Building Blocks- Novelty Propagation- Semantics- Genetic Programming
• Drugs discovery with ML
• Pattern recognition• Data, text, image mining• Ensembles, boosting• Causal time series
– Granger causality– Extended Kalman filter– Sequential Monte Carlo
• Automatic creation of mathematical models– Trading strategies– Credit scoring– Price prediction– High frequency trading
Valery Tsourikov 2012 (c). All rights reserved
Ongoing Projects• DISFA: automated creation of trading systems for ETFs
and U.S. stocks. Shipping to clients since Q4’2010
• White Sparrow: A.I. Platform for intraday and multiday trading with Predictive trading strategies. – Started in Q1’2011. Partner: DISFA Global; Status: we are running
trading with real capital before final release
• Predictive StatArb: identifying and exploiting regularities or “patterns” in asset price dynamics.
• News Expert System: breaking news intelligent guard. Alfa-prototype for internal use in TS development.
• Economy Health Scanner: automated recession prediction. Alfa-prototype for internal use in TS development.
Valery Tsourikov 2012 (c). All rights reserved
Rapid R&D Methodology
To minimize new products launch cycle we use a novel method called RRD – Rapid Research and Development – check presentation on the website
Valery Tsourikov 2012 (c). All rights reserved
Part 2.Content Revolution
Predictive Analytics and
A.I. for content generation
Valery Tsourikov 2012 (c). All rights reserved
Internet and Intranets 2011+: Major Shift to Content
• Internet evolution– Phase 1: infrastructure (Sun Microsystems, Cisco), search
engines (Yahoo, Google), e-shops (Amazon, EBay)
– Phase 2: user-generated simple content (Flickr, blogs, social media – Facebook, LinkedIn)
– Phase 3: - A.I. generates content New MEGA TREND
Valery Tsourikov 2012 (c). All rights reserved
A.I. Creates Content as Mega-trend
• Addresses basic needs: content creation is fundamental feature of human civilization
• Internet is ready: everywhere, high bandwidth, cheap
• A.I. is ready: machine learning, pattern recognition, advanced analytics, semantics
• Huge business opportunities: decisions support; business analytics, robotic trading; data, images and video mining
Valery Tsourikov 2012 (c). All rights reserved
Ready to explore new opportunities?
Internet 2011+: Content Revolution
Many groups will try to ride mega-trend
Valery Tsourikov 2012 (c). All rights reserved
Why A.I. for content creation?
A.I. silicon brain• Very fast evolution• Works 24x7x365• Silicon brain capacity
is practically unlimited• No salary increase,
at least for now
Human brain• No change for 20,000 years • Lazy, sleeps, drinks etc.• Brain capacity is limited• Demands salary increase,
bonuses, vacations and respect no matter what
A.I. generates content - Better - Faster - Cheaper
Valery Tsourikov 2012 (c). All rights reserved
Artificial Intelligence vs. Human Brain
Human brain stopped evolving 20 000 years ago
Artificial Intelligence is entering exponential phase of evolution
A.I.
humans
This is fundamental fact: A.I. evolves exponentially but human brain remainsunchanged since Stone Age
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A.I. Beats Human
• Garry Kasparov, the greatest chessplayer of all time, was defeated by Deep Blue computer in 1997
• Same year, Invention Machine Corp. announced A.I. software that created new patentable ideas by linking thousands of physical effects in a second
• No human can generate ideas with such speed
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Why is power of A.I. rapidly increasing?
• First, because microprocessors double their performance every 18 month (Moore’s law)
• Second, modern A.I. understands the meaning of words and can learn by reading different information sources
• A.I. is able to run Darwinian-type concept creation and selection with Monte-Carlo method
Valery Tsourikov 2012 (c). All rights reserved
users
Our Niche: Advanced A.I. for Content Generation
A.I.+ HumanCreativity!
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Content Creation by A.I.
Creative Artificial
Intelligence
Creative Artificial
Intelligence
FactsTrendsModelsTheoriesNeedsCommon senseConceptsNews
New content:Risk modelsPredictionsImagesVideosDiscoveriesTrading systemsOptimal Portfolios
Valery Tsourikov 2012 (c). All rights reserved
Machine Learning: Great Business Opportunities on Modern Internet
Internet: texts images data video
Machine Learning: Text Mining
Machine Learning: Text Mining
Image RecognitionImage Recognition
Predictive AnalyticsPredictive Analytics
Video SearchVideo Search
Internet will be filled with
Machine Learning algorithmsValery Tsourikov 2012 (c). All rights reserved
Q&A
• How are you going to implement the projects?
– We are looking for partners who see great business opportunities in A.I. and Machine Learning spaces
• What kind of partners are you looking for?
– Strategic partners: corporations or investors from the U.S., European Union and Asia
Contact us by email: [email protected] Tsourikov 2012 (c). All rights reserved