AKST ACHIEVEMENTS, AKST ACHIEVEMENTS, LIMITS AND LIMITS AND
CHALLENGES IN THE CHALLENGES IN THE CWANA REGION CWANA REGION
Presentation is based on IAASTD: Presentation is based on IAASTD:
Historical and current perspectives of AKST in CWANAHistorical and current perspectives of AKST in CWANAK. Latiri, A. Gana, K. Shideed, J. Albergel, S. Grando, Y. Kaya, F. Panhwar, M. Qadir, K. Latiri, A. Gana, K. Shideed, J. Albergel, S. Grando, Y. Kaya, F. Panhwar, M. Qadir,
A.Tan , S.TozanliA.Tan , S.Tozanli
OUTLINE: CWANA regionOUTLINE: CWANA region
The CWANA regionThe CWANA region Agricultural Production during the last 50 Agricultural Production during the last 50
years and AKST achievementsyears and AKST achievements Consequences on NR Consequences on NR Social challenges in the CWANA regionSocial challenges in the CWANA region AKST, Research challenges and prioritiesAKST, Research challenges and priorities
The CWANA regionThe CWANA regionTotal area : Total area : 14%14% (18.5 M km²)(18.5 M km²)Population: Population: 10%10%Water resources : Water resources : 2%2%
•PPoorest region in the world in terms of water resources, globally and per inhabitant.
•Most countries are subject to drought
•Water scarcity is expected to
intensify due to climate change.
North AfricaNile Valley and Red Sea
Arabian Peninsula
South and West Asia
Central Asia and Caucasus
Algeria Djibouti Bahrain Afghanistan ArmeniaLibya Egypt Kuwait Iran AzerbaijanMauritania Somalia Oman Iraq KazakhstanMorocco Sudan Qatar Jordan Kyrgyz RepublicTunisia Yemen Saudi Arabia Lebanon Tajikistan
U.A. Emirates Pakistan TurkmenistanPalestine UzbekistanSyriaTurkey
North AfricaNile Valley and Red Sea
Arabian Peninsula
South and West Asia
Central Asia and Caucasus
Algeria Djibouti Bahrain Afghanistan ArmeniaLibya Egypt Kuwait Iran AzerbaijanMauritania Somalia Oman Iraq KazakhstanMorocco Sudan Qatar Jordan Kyrgyz RepublicTunisia Yemen Saudi Arabia Lebanon Tajikistan
U.A. Emirates Pakistan TurkmenistanPalestine UzbekistanSyriaTurkey
Drought risk in the CWANADrought risk in the CWANA
Agricultural production Agricultural production takes place in a difficult takes place in a difficult context:context:
Rainfall is low, Rainfall is low, Rainfed agriculture is Rainfed agriculture is
subject to high drought risksubject to high drought risk Renewable water Renewable water
resources are reduced andresources are reduced and Irrigated production is Irrigated production is
limited because of the limited because of the limited water resourceslimited water resources
National Rainfall indices
Potential drought risk for rainfed agriculture
Source: FAO database, Pardey et al (2006)
Land use in CWANALand use in CWANA
MhaMha %%
Agricultural Agricultural landland
992992
Permanent Permanent PasturePasture
819819 82.682.6
Arable Arable
LandLand
159159 16.016.0
Irrigated Irrigated areaarea
6363 6.36.3
Permanent Permanent CropsCrops
1414 1.41.4
Highest value agricultural production
Share of irrigated land in arable land
Source: FAO database
Agricultural production and YieldAgricultural production and YieldCereal production in the CWANA region
0
20000000
40000000
60000000
80000000
100000000
120000000
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Cereal yield (t/ha) in the CWANA region
01122334455
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Fruit production in the CWANA region
05000000
100000001500000020000000
2500000030000000
3500000040000000
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Fruit yield (t/ha) in the CWANA region
02468
1012141618
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Vegetable production in the CWANA region
0
10000000
20000000
30000000
40000000
50000000
60000000
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Vegetable yield (t/ha) in the CWANA region
0
5
10
15
20
25
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
05
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
World CWANA North Africa Nile Valley and Red Sea
Arabian peninsula South West Asia Central Asia and Caucasus
Food production per capitaFood production per capita
Food production per Food production per capitacapita didn’t increase: Expanding agricultural production failed to keep pace with the rapid growth in demand and self-sufficiency ratios declined. This trend is expected to continue.
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
1961-1965
1966-1970
1971-1975
1976-1980
1981-1985
1986-1990
1991-1995
1996-2000
2000-2005
Date rangekg
/cap
itaSouth and West Asia Nile Valley and Red Sea Central Asia and Caucasus
North Africa Arabian Peninsula CWANA
World
Source: FAO database
Grain production per capita (1961-2005)Grain production per capita (1961-2005)
Food consumptionFood consumption Significant progress was
made in raising the per capita daily food consumption in kcalories per person since the 1960s.
Average daily food intake dominated by cereals, with animal products far behind world averages.
Source: FAO databaseSource: FAO database
Composition of per capita daily food intake
0
500
1 000
1 500
2 000
2 500
3 000
3 500
Nor
th A
fric
a
Ara
bian
pen
insu
la
Sou
th a
nd W
est A
sia
Nile
Val
ley
and
Red
Sea
Wor
ld
Nor
th A
fric
a
Ara
bian
pen
insu
la
Sou
th a
nd W
est A
sia
CA
C
Nile
Val
ley
and
Red
Sea
Wor
ld
kcal
ori
e/ca
pit
a/d
ay
Cereals & pulses Pulses Sugar & Sweeteners
Fruits & vegetables Meat, eggs & fish Milk
Alcoholic beverages & spices Fats, oils & nuts
Composition of per capita daily food intake (1960-2005)
Poverty, Hunger and malnutritionPoverty, Hunger and malnutrition
Progress do not reflect the uneven food distribution among the socioeconomic classes and poor rural areas:
Less than 10 percent of the population is declared undernourished. In some countries, level can be much higher (Pakistan, 38%, Afghanistan,
39%, Yemen,45%, ….).
Source: World bank, An online Atlas of the MDG
Agricultural trade balanceAgricultural trade balance
Agricultural production is insufficient to fulfill the needs of its large population; imports are high, and deficit in agricultural trade balance is increasing.
In Calories
% (Export-Import)/consumption
Source: FAO database
Food deficit per countryIn Dollars(Export-Import)
Agricultural Exports and Imports for CWANA sub-regions, 2002-2004
$- $20,000 $40,000 $60,000 $80,000 $100,000
CWANA
million US$
Agricultural Imports Agricultural Exports
-8000
-7000
-6000
-5000
-4000
-3000
-2000
-1000
0
1000
2000
3000
1961-1965
1966-1970
1971-1975
1976-1980
1981-1985
1986-1990
1991-1995
1996-2000
2001-2004
Date r ange
Ag
ricu
ltura
l tra
de
bal
ance
(Mill
ion
$)
In which conditions and In which conditions and at which cost?at which cost?
Reduction in Reduction in Water resourcesWater resources
Water resources: total internal renewable per capita (m3/inhab/yr)
1
10
100
1000
10000
100000
1958-1962
1963-1967
1968-1972
1973-1977
1978-1982
1983-1987
1988-1992
1993-1997
1998-2002
2003-2007
year
Inter
nal r
enew
able
wate
r res
ource
s (m3
/inha
b/yr)
TadjikistanKirghizistanTurkeyArmeniaAfghanistanIranIraqLebanonAzerbaijanMoroccoSudanSomaliaAlgeriaDjiboutiTunisiaSyriaOmanPakistanTurkménistanYemenMauritaniaJordanLibyaSaudia ArabiaQatarU.A.EEgyptBahrain
Internal renewable water resources per capita 1958-1962 (m3/inhabitants/year)
23632031
16581424 1240
1027 962 948 755 707 554 413 38261
48405233
5612
7640
3191
2510 2437
1389
240
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
9000
10000
11000
Country
m3/
inha
bita
nts/
year
500 m3/inhabitants/year
Internal renewable water resources per capita 2003-2007 (m3/inhabitants/year)
423 416 413 375 325 271 191 130 118 104 94 81 48 24 5326
559856919
10431
8801
30972981
21181818
1326 1276952
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
9000
10000
11000
Country
m3/in
habita
nts
/year
500 m3/inhabitants/year
Soil constaints and severity of human-induced Land degradation
in CWANA
(Terrastat, FAO database, 2006).
Cause:
Agriculture; Overgrazing; Deforestation; Over exploitation of vegetation
Major soil constraints in CWANA Total area (1000
km2) Sodicity (%) Shallowness (%) Erosion risk (%)
North Africa 5552 0,2 22,0 8,0 Nile Valley and Red Sea 4581 1,5 21,8 8,6 Arabian peninsula 2374 0,0 22,6 7,4 South and West Asia 4551 0,9 25,8 19,6 Central Asia and Caucasus 3997 28,4 16,3 5,0
Human induced land degradation in sub-regions of CWANA
50.642.4
24
8.2
57.9
12.8
16.2
34.3
4.3
11.410.5 17.5 20.2
31.6
15.8
25.414.2
32.4
39.6
13.3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
North Africa Nile Valley andRed Sea
Arabian peninsula South and WestAsia
Central Asia andCaucasus
CWANA Subregion
Per
cen
t
(%) None (%) Light (%) Moderate (%) Severe
Agrobiodiversity and Agrobiodiversity and endangered speciesendangered species
Modified from http://www.iucnredlist.org/info/tablesModified from http://www.iucnredlist.org/info/tables
Numbers of threatened species by major groups of organisms in CWANA areas
North AfricaNile Valley and
Red Sea Arabian Peninsula Southwest AsiaCentral Asia and
Caucasus Total
Mammals 68 64 40 125 67 364
Birds 50 62 70 146 71 399
Reptiles 29 21 16 57 16 139
Amphibians 7 1 0 17 0 25
Fishes 82 74 63 136 25 380
Molluscs 0 3 0 0 0 3
Other Inverts 31 8 8 31 22 100
Plants 6 197 9 7 5 224
Total 273 430 206 519 206 1.634
Social Sustainability Social Sustainability ChallengesChallenges
Major changes in PoliciesMajor changes in PoliciesReduction of public investments and
support mechanisms Markets privatization, trade
liberalization: affect negatively farmers, limited access to global markets, dumping of cheap products
In some countries conflicts, political instability and poor governance have hampered agricultural development
Farm structureFarm structure
Two major trends for farmland:
Concentrated in the hands of a minority of farmers, as a result of recent processes of privatization and liberalization;
Fragmented, mostly because of inheritance and demographic growth, leading to reduced economic viability of family farms and unsound land management
AKST in CWANAAKST in CWANA
AKST in CWANAAKST in CWANA
Development of AKST : uneven and very different from one country to another.
NARs and international institutions are the main contributors
Private sector contribution is still limited, , oriented to crop-improvement research, oriented to crop-improvement research, mainly dealing with export crops in irrigated mainly dealing with export crops in irrigated areasareas
AKST in CWANAAKST in CWANA
In MENA region compared to other parts of the world:
6% of the public R (1,382 M 2000 int US$/ 23,000 ),
3.8% of the public+private
In Science and Technology 2 % :
(14893 M 2000 int US$)
Source Pardey et al (2006) Source USDA (2003)
as % of GDP
Investment in Agricultural RD as % of world investment
AKST and farmersAKST and farmers
• Most agricultural research in the CWANA region Most agricultural research in the CWANA region has been carried out in a top- down approach.has been carried out in a top- down approach.
• With few exceptions, farmers associations have With few exceptions, farmers associations have remained very weak because of insufficient remained very weak because of insufficient public policies. Strong farmer associations will public policies. Strong farmer associations will likely promote the participation of farmers in likely promote the participation of farmers in technology development, transfer and adoption.technology development, transfer and adoption.
Traditional KnowledgeTraditional Knowledge
Traditional knowledge on water harvesting, cultural practices and animal Traditional knowledge on water harvesting, cultural practices and animal breeding. breeding.
Initiatives developed to recognize, validate and maintain traditional Initiatives developed to recognize, validate and maintain traditional knowledge. knowledge.
Complete coverage is still lacking and there AKST could benefit from Complete coverage is still lacking and there AKST could benefit from projects that encourage its retention.projects that encourage its retention.
Priorities for agricultural Priorities for agricultural researchresearch
Priorities for agricultural researchPriorities for agricultural research
Improve income generation and food security, Improve income generation and food security, reducing malnutrition:reducing malnutrition:
Agricultural extension that respond to market and farmers’
needs,
Empowering farmers via participatory action research and
farmer to farmer exchange,
Technology options drawing on local knowledge,
Gender dimension of farm livelihoods,
Improved vertical integration from producer to consumer
Priorities for agricultural researchPriorities for agricultural research
Increase Increase land and water useland and water use efficiencyefficiency, the , the productivity productivity
of of livestocklivestock and preserve the and preserve the environmentenvironment
Drought tolerance is complex...,
Advances in genomics and sequencing have potential to pin-point genes involved in targeted processes
Better phenotyping tools/strategies needed to select most desirable genotypes
Need to consider more species and to diversify farming systems in order to reduce risk
-
Priorities for agricultural researchPriorities for agricultural research
Agricultural research should also concentrate on policies :
International trade issues affect severely farmers in CWANA Limited acces to goblal markets, dumping of cheap products)
Constraints to market access by small farmers
Identifying marketing niches for value added farm products and community based innovations
Policies for sustainable development Preserving natural resourcesPreserving natural resources
Policies to increase RD Policies to increase RD
AKST challengesAKST challenges
The CWANA region is facing problems that make it The CWANA region is facing problems that make it necessary to increase the effort toward agricultural necessary to increase the effort toward agricultural researchresearch
AKST should now address a more comprehensive picture of the situation in terms of the environment, sustainability, male and female farmers of all economic levels and the challenges posed by the changing climate. All avenues of innovation and information are needed to create new approaches, methods, and techniques in the agricultural sphere.
ReferencesReferences R. E. Evenson, et al.Assessing the Impact of the Green Revolution, 1960 to 2000 Science 300, R. E. Evenson, et al.Assessing the Impact of the Green Revolution, 1960 to 2000 Science 300,
758 (2003)758 (2003) FAO statistical database Pardey P.G., N. Beintema, S. Dehmer, S. Wood (2006) Agricultural research, a growing global
divide? Rajaram S.R., H.J.R. Braun -and M.R. van Ginkel (1996) CIMMYT’s approach to bredd for
drought tolerance Euphytica 92 (1-2): 147-153 USDA (2003) 21st century agriculture, a critical role for science and technology
World Bank An Online Atlas of the Millennium Development Goals