2019: the red year
Professor Mark HowdenANU Climate Change InstituteVice Chair, IPCC Working Group II @ProfMarkHowden
ANU Climate Update
CO2 emissions rising again: record levels
Global Carbon Project 2020Year
CO
2fo
ssil
fuel
em
issi
ons
(Gt C
O2/y
ear)
20190.6% increase
Atmospheric GHGs: record concentrations
NASA 2020
• CO2 today 413ppm
• Record levels of methane
• Record levels of nitrous oxide
• Record levels of other GHGs
Globally – second hottest on record
• 2nd warmest year on record (1.1oC above the pre-industrial average)
• About 10% chance that one year in the next five will exceed 1.5oC globally
UKMO 2020
High temperatures almost everywhere
NASA 2020
Ocean warming accelerating
Cheng et al. 2020
Sea level: record high
NASA 2020
Update
Sea level: increasing concern
IPCC SROCC 2019; Bamber et al. 2019; Kulp and Strauss 2019
• As the science and climate change has evolved, estimates of future sea level rise (SLR) have tended to increase
• Recent expert assessment supports the use of scenarios of global sea level rise exceeding 2m by 2100 for planning purposes‒ for year 2200 the equivalent number is 7.5m
• New coastal elevation modelling tripled the number of people susceptible to SLR
• Under high emissions, by 2100 630M people will live below projected annual flood levels
Climate-related events and insurance
Munich Re 2020
Australia: record temperatures
BoM 2020
• Hottest year (+1.52oC) especially daytime temperatures
• Hottest summer• Heatwaves in several
months • Hottest day record
beaten on two successive days: 40.9oC and then 41.9oC
Warm almost everwhere: esp daytime
BoM 2020
• Daytime temperatures 2.09oC above baseline
Australian rainfall: record dry
BoM 2020
• Driest year on record (277.6mm)
• Record positive Indian Ocean Dipole event
• Many places worst drought on record
• Towns and rivers running dry, massive fish kills
• But also record rains and severe floods
Update
The rainfall-temperature operating envelope
BoM data: southern Australia
Rainfall (mm)
Tem
pera
ture
(oC
) Hotter, drier
Colder, wetter
Pre-1950’s
Rainfall-temperature operating envelopes
BoM data
Rainfall (mm)
Rainfall (mm)
Rainfall (mm)Te
mpe
ratu
re (o
C)
Tem
pera
ture
(oC
)
Tem
pera
ture
(oC
)
Hotter, drier
Colder, wetter
Pre-1950’s 1951-2000
Post-2000
A changed operating environment
Rainfall (mm)
Tem
pera
ture
(oC
)
Colder, wetter
Hotter, drier 2019
BoM data
Pre-1950’s
2001 onwards
1951-2000
Climate changes dragging back farm profits
Hughes et al. 2020
• Climate changes (post 2000) affecting farm profits from -37% (Vic.) to +8.7% (NT)
Fires in 2019
BoM 2020
• Global news• Early start to the fire season: 1 September • New records set for FFDI in many places• Fire danger a function of:
‒ Drought‒ High temperatures (especially daytime)‒ Strong winds‒ Dry air
Vapour pressure deficit increasing
Yuan et al. 2019
• Warmest year on record (last set 2018)
• January record: 6.3oC above average • January had 5 days over 40oC with 4
days in a row (contrast with the whole period 1960-90 having 3 days over 40oC)
• Fifth driest year on record• Extensive smoke pollution and dust• Snow on an AFL match in Manuka !
Canberra was hot and dry in 2019
BoM 2020; Mitchell Whitelaw & Geoff Hinchcliffe, ANU Design
Good news: public support increasing
Lowy Institute 2019
Greatest critical threat to the vital interests of Australia in the next ten years
Critical threat, take action
Important but not critical
No action until sure
Central banks, regulators and legal systems
Business concerns and action
But it is not all good news
Policy: imagine if we could have …• A Zero Carbon Act• Mainstreaming of climate change into all major government
decisions• Sorting out an emissions trading system• Establishing an independent Climate Change Commission• Proposal to phase out coal• Significant funding for the public sector to reduce GHG
emissions• Substantial, strategic public investment in climate change
mitigation and adaptation
Policy: imagine if we could have …• A Zero Carbon Act• Mainstreaming of climate change into all major government
decisions• Sorting out an emissions trading system• Establishing an independent Climate Change Commission• Proposal to phase out coal• Significant funding for the public sector to reduce GHG
emissions• Substantial, strategic public investment in climate change
mitigation and adaptation
Reconfiguring: your goals and resources• Climate change is accelerating and the impacts increasingly felt• Both immediate and long-term, strategic responses are needed• Many of the solutions are available, affordable and scalable but
need policy support to accelerate adoption• The momentum for a just transition is increasing and this could
provide new opportunities to work and play together
Key messages
Thankyou
Prof Mark HowdenANU Climate Change [email protected]@ProfMarkHowden+61 2 6125 7266
Vice Chair, IPCC Working Group II
Each half a degree mattersEach year mattersEach choice matters