8/7/2019 Arab Media Influence Report - Mar2011
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/arab-media-influence-report-mar2011 1/33
Arab Media Influence Report – AMIR 2011Social Media & the Arab Spring
March 2011
8/7/2019 Arab Media Influence Report - Mar2011
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/arab-media-influence-report-mar2011 2/33
AMIR I in March 2010 identified the following:
Egypt fastest growing media market in MENA region
New influencers emerging online
Yemen had the most political news, UAE had the least political
Economic news in Egypt was more dominant than political, in volume
Egypt creating a foundation for new media hub
MENA Countries largely focus on domestic as opposed to regional issues Social media is about to become a major disruptive force
Arab individuals reclaiming authority over their lives, freedom & liberty trends increasing,
using social media
Baradei’s Facebook page became 2nd most popular site in Egypt and acted as a catalyst to
increased anti-government protests in 2010
Facebook playing key role in anti-government protests in Egypt
Privatization of media – on the increase
Traditional media – on the rise
8/7/2019 Arab Media Influence Report - Mar2011
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/arab-media-influence-report-mar2011 3/33
AMIR II (2011) - Focus on Social Media and MENA region
Huge growth in SM usage since AMIR I & catalyst in recent events
Rapidly growing Internet/social media usage in the region
65 million Internet Users expected to reach 80 million by 2012
30.8% of population (higher than global – 28.7%)
User growth from 2000-2010 at over 1,800%
Over 17 million Facebook Users
In August 2010 – Arabic became fastest growing language on Facebook
Decline in traditional media growth around the MENA region
8/7/2019 Arab Media Influence Report - Mar2011
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/arab-media-influence-report-mar2011 4/33
Methodology
Capture over 10 million conversations / day
1) All user-generated content captured on a 24/7 basis using automatedcrawlers, this includes blogs, micro-blogs, forums, message boards,
news sites, etc.
Capture
Mine
Analyze
Alert
2) For political analysis, capture is not keyword based, NG captures all open source data
and subscribes to online groups in order to download other data
3) In addition to automated crawlers, researchers download vast amounts of data from all
across MENA on a daily basis, using custom-built tools
4) Source databases regularly updated using global references in addition to NG research
teams on the ground all around MENA, multiple layers of data reference points
Mine
1) NLP technologies used to mine data and extract information
2) Named entities extracted
3) Information clusters created
4) Influencers identified
5) Data Anomalies identified
6) Themes created
8/7/2019 Arab Media Influence Report - Mar2011
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/arab-media-influence-report-mar2011 5/33
Methodology
Analyze
1. Data analyzed using text mining applications
2. Expert analysts start analyzing data, all using native speakers –
primarily in Arabic, English, French, Farsi, and Urdu
3. Systemized & proprietary methodology used for data analysis
4. Trends documented and tracked based on analysis
5. Influencers documented and tracked based on analysis
Alert
1. Alerts sent on pre-defined criteria, either in near-real time, daily, weekly, or monthly
Capture
Mine
Analyze
Alert
8/7/2019 Arab Media Influence Report - Mar2011
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/arab-media-influence-report-mar2011 6/33
Case Study:Egypt Revolution
8/7/2019 Arab Media Influence Report - Mar2011
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/arab-media-influence-report-mar2011 7/33
Data Captured
1,624,268
3,306,947
1,736,615
January February March
Egypt-Related Conversations
38%
32%
11%
10%
9%
Top Languages
English
Arabic
Farsi
Other
French
Volume was at its peak during the
month of February. SocialEyez captured
a total of 3,306,947 posts/comments
Top Sites:
•Facebook & Twitter
•Masrawy
•Youm7
•Eqla3
•Ikhwanbook
8/7/2019 Arab Media Influence Report - Mar2011
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/arab-media-influence-report-mar2011 8/33
Issue of privatizationrises again.
Thousands of workersrejected the plans of the
authorities and planned aprotest one of the largestworkers strikes in Egypt
Demands included urgingthe Government to own
national industries ratherthan privatizing such
establishments
Effect on social media: the April 6th
movementcame alive on Facebook. The event played animportant part in supporting and shaping the
Egyptian revolution. Socio-economicaldemands at its rise.
Year 2008
Killing of 28-year young
business manKhalid Said
Thousands of users onsocial media respond to
the killing of KhalidSaid. News of a protest
surfaced on SocialMedia
Demands included end of emergency law, raising
minimum wages, increasinggovernment subsidy on basic
food and commodities etc.
Effect on social media: the formation of “Weare all Khalid Said” Facebook page. A page
created to address the various politicaldemands of the public. A page that
contributed to a President of 30 years to stepdown.
Year 2010
“The two wings of the Egyptian revolution only worked together in
harmony with the help of social media platforms of communication.
They were disconnected before and just managed to coordinate their
thoughts, demands, and actions, and this was mainly through the social
media networks.”
Change – Through Social Media
8/7/2019 Arab Media Influence Report - Mar2011
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/arab-media-influence-report-mar2011 9/33
11,682
27,81036,270 44,664 38,086
137,486
278,186
1/16/2011 1/17/2011 1/18/2011 1/19/2011 1/20/2011 1/24/2011 1/25/2011
Fever of the
Tunisian
revolution
spreads among
the Egyptian
public, amid
calls by many
Egyptians to
stage a
revolution on
January 25.
Facebook users in
Egypt continue to
discuss holding arevolution on Jan
25th with the aim
of demanding
improving the
citizens’
conditions.
Following the
incident in Tunisia,
an Egyptian man
sets himself on fire
outside the maingate of the
parliament. Two
similar incidents
followed on the
19th.
Egyptian
people still
contemplate a
possible public
revolution on
January 25.
January 25 (Police Day) is the
confirmed date for the
Egyptian popular uprising, to
protest the poor living
conditions in the country.
Egyptians anticipate the
popular sit-in on the
Day of Anger on the
streets amid security
enforcements for fear of
chaos in the country.
Tipping point from
socio-economic to
political
Calls for the January 25th revolution became the 4th most discussed subject on social
media across the entire Arab world” on January 20th
Were there warning signals in Egypt?
8/7/2019 Arab Media Influence Report - Mar2011
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/arab-media-influence-report-mar2011 10/33
Shift from Socio-Economic to Political Terms
Socio-Economic
Income
Jobs
Minimum
Wage
HousingCorruption
Police
Brutality
Salary
Political
Revolution
Corruption
Mubarak
MinisterNDP
Parliament
Freedom
In Q 1 2010 57% of Arabic conversations
on social media included socio-economicterms, this number drops to 37% in 2011.
In Q 1 2010 35% of Arabic conversations on
social media included political terms, this
number increases to 88% in 2011
8/7/2019 Arab Media Influence Report - Mar2011
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/arab-media-influence-report-mar2011 11/33
The Egyptian revolution – 2011
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
400,000
450,000
Oust Interior
Minister
Increase Min
Wages
End Emergency
Law
Oust Mubarak Increase Gov
Subsidies
Fair Elections Disolve
Parliament
Top Public Demands
68%
32%
Political
Economic
No. of posts/comment
8/7/2019 Arab Media Influence Report - Mar2011
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/arab-media-influence-report-mar2011 12/33
Key Trends – Post Mubarak
8/7/2019 Arab Media Influence Report - Mar2011
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/arab-media-influence-report-mar2011 13/33
The Egyptian revolution – 2011
Public Reactions to Government’s Response
Reactions to Shafiq as PM Reactions to Sharaf as PM
Approval of Muslim Brotherhood Members on
Constitutional Reform Committee
Reactions to Government Economic
Announcements
85%
15%
Approve
Dissaprove
60%
40%
Positive
Negative
85%
15%
Positive
Negative
58%
42%
Positive
Negative
8/7/2019 Arab Media Influence Report - Mar2011
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/arab-media-influence-report-mar2011 14/33
70% of online conversations directly called for a larger
economic role by the government
Sample Verbatim:
Neo-Socialism Trend
Term February 2011 Mentions % Increase from January
Salary increase 1.2 million 63%
Food subsidies 800 k 54%
Job creation 1.5 million 46%
Public healthcare 700 k 21%
"I say no to privatization, and I call on the government to cancel it at all as it does not work for our interests.
The state has to support its development institutions
and do without any foreign aids. "
"This is privatization: the government sells its
properties, which are originally owned by the people, at
very low prices for the interest of a bunch of corrupt
people. Privatization means stealing the money of the
people.“
"Desert lands in Egypt are large and abundant, and it is our rights as lower-income
people to have wide and beautiful apartments with green areas around. “
8/7/2019 Arab Media Influence Report - Mar2011
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/arab-media-influence-report-mar2011 15/33
* 60% of online conversations cite
the Muslim Brotherhood as the keyforce that “enabled” the Jan 25th
revolution
80%
20%
Acceptance of MB being part of
Constitutional Change Committee
Accept Don't Accept
Increased Role & Influence of Muslim Brotherhood
"The MB young people protected the
revolution in Tahrir Square by their bodies.
They managed with all Egyptians to make the
revolution succeed."
Link:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4FeuU74
b4fw
"I'm looking forward to seeing the day when
this new party becomes reality.“
Link:
http://www.facebook.com/7oria.we.3adala
8/7/2019 Arab Media Influence Report - Mar2011
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/arab-media-influence-report-mar2011 16/33
Increased Role & Influence of Muslim Brotherhood
48%
52%
Political Conversations Mentioning MBin 2010
Mention Don't Mention
78%
22%
Political Conversations Mentioning MB
in 2011
Mention Don't Mention
Mentions of the Muslim Brotherhood
increased by 26%, but support from MB
only increased by 8% from 2010-2011
8/7/2019 Arab Media Influence Report - Mar2011
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/arab-media-influence-report-mar2011 17/33
Sentiment Towards the US & Israel
2010 Sentiment Towards the US 2011 Sentiment Towards the US
2010 Sentiment Towards Israel 2010 Sentiment Towards Israel2%
14%
84%PositiveNeutralNegative
1%
7%
92%
PositiveNeutralNegative
43%
22%
35%
Positive
NeutralNegative
27%
10%63%Positive
NeutralNegative
8/7/2019 Arab Media Influence Report - Mar2011
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/arab-media-influence-report-mar2011 18/33
Emergence of strong Salafi Movement led
by Sheikh Mohamed Hassan
Salafi scholars called on their followers to
vote “yes” for the constitutional
amendments
60%
40%
Support
Refuse
Support Salafi Involvement in Politics
Sheikh Mohamed Hassan’s visit to Ain Shams
University
8/7/2019 Arab Media Influence Report - Mar2011
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/arab-media-influence-report-mar2011 19/33
Verbatim – support for Sheikh Mohamed Hassan
"Sheikh Hassan, you are the lion of Mosque platforms.
I swear by God I love you man. You are the most knowledgeable man now on this earth.“
"You are the crown of our heads oh Sheikh
Mohamed Hassan, and you are a model for the
Muslim Nation. I love you so so so much. May
Allah grant you good health, long life and wisdom“
"I love you Sheikh
Mohamed. You Scholars
are right and I want to jointhe Salafi movement. You
people are of good
manners, and I love you."
"Tanta University is inviting you. I ask Allah to bless you all scholars of this Muslim Ummah (nation). You
are the only one that touched my heart with your very soft words that tell us about God. I hope you
Sheikh visit us at the Tanta (City) University. “
8/7/2019 Arab Media Influence Report - Mar2011
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/arab-media-influence-report-mar2011 20/33
25% drop
Optimism towards the
revolution is declining as the
youth seem to disintegrateon issues that initially
integrated them.
Religious influence
emanating from groups
inspired by the Salafi
movement and the Muslim
brotherhood is on the rise.
The Disconnect – between the Elite & the Masses
8/7/2019 Arab Media Influence Report - Mar2011
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/arab-media-influence-report-mar2011 21/33
Key Findings
1. Social media is a key driver, was game changer in Egypt primarily because it bridged the gap
between social classes thus for the first time creating a much larger united anti-government
front that included rich & poor
2. Freedom of expression on social media was catalyst, “political” terms clearly on the rise in
2011 vs. 2010
Key Findings
1. Socio-Economic: neo-socialism
2. Political: domestic is priority (Israel & USA mentions on decline but more negative)
3. Religious: Brotherhood & Salafism on the rise
8/7/2019 Arab Media Influence Report - Mar2011
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/arab-media-influence-report-mar2011 22/33
The Arab Region – a Pan Arab Outlook
8/7/2019 Arab Media Influence Report - Mar2011
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/arab-media-influence-report-mar2011 23/33
8/7/2019 Arab Media Influence Report - Mar2011
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/arab-media-influence-report-mar2011 24/33
User Emotions – the Region
User Emotions – Egypt
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Hatred/anger:
toward “Ruling
National
Democratic
Party’s
leaders”
Admiration:
toward Wael
Ghoneim”
Anger: toward
“Habib Al-Adly” (Interior
Minister)
Resentment:
toward
“Mubarak”
User Emotions – Libya
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Anger/hatred:
toward “Gaddafi”
Sympathy:
toward
“protesters”
Admiration:
toward “Al-
Jazeera”
Hate: toward Al-
Qaeda”
Anger: toward
“Libyan media”
Sadness: toward
“Libyans”
8/7/2019 Arab Media Influence Report - Mar2011
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/arab-media-influence-report-mar2011 25/33
User Emotions – the Region
User Emotions – Saudi Arabia User Emotions – Yemen
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Love: toward
“Abdullah bin
Abdul Aziz”
Resentment:
toward
“Protests”
Hatred:
toward
“Shiites in
Easter
Province”
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Anger:toward
“President
Ali Saleh”
Sympathy:
toward
“Protesters”
Anger:
toward
“USA”
8/7/2019 Arab Media Influence Report - Mar2011
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/arab-media-influence-report-mar2011 26/33
Future Trends
8/7/2019 Arab Media Influence Report - Mar2011
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/arab-media-influence-report-mar2011 27/33
The Arab Union, it is a dream many social media users voiced after the
spark of the Arab revolutions.
Many users think that the Arab region will be ripe for a union that endsyears of unjustified split and disagreement.
They claim that the dream of unity existed ever since Egyptian former
president Naser called for it, but they think that their weak leaders were
the obstacle before such an aspiration.
A United Dream – the Arab Union – Myth or Reality?
This trend may not be that strong today, but it has many supporters that hope first that the
other dictator regimes fall, which will pave the way for such a dream to come to the surface
again.
After the revolution, a number of social networks (mainly Facebook) were opened by some
Arab unity fans to support revolutions everywhere in the Arab world.
A User comment: “ The Arab world peoples are looking forward to the unity of
their countries for the betterment of their conditions. As the European managed
to have their EU, the Arab also can work for the AU after the Arab despots leave
and the Arabs become free and democratic ”
8/7/2019 Arab Media Influence Report - Mar2011
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/arab-media-influence-report-mar2011 28/33
User emotions towards Political leaders in the Region
Qaboos bin Said Al SaidAbdullah bin Abdul Azaz
Al Saud Abdullah II Hamad bin Issa Al Khalifa Abudl Azaz Bouteflika
Hosni Mubarak Ali Abdullah Saleh Bashar Al-Assad Zine el-Abidine Ben Ali Muammar Al-Gaddafi
8/7/2019 Arab Media Influence Report - Mar2011
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/arab-media-influence-report-mar2011 29/33
8/7/2019 Arab Media Influence Report - Mar2011
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/arab-media-influence-report-mar2011 30/33
Key Findings & Predominant Conversational Trends across the MENA region
Neo-Socialism trends across the Arab world
Public calling for larger government role in economics/business
Public calling for increase in government jobs
Public calling for increase in government subsidies
Public widely opposed to privatization plans
Public calling for nationalization of large corporations (Egypt only)
70% of online conversations directly called for a
significantly greater role by their governments
8/7/2019 Arab Media Influence Report - Mar2011
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/arab-media-influence-report-mar2011 31/33
Key Findings & Predominant Conversational Trends across the MENA region
Growing influence of religious groups on politics
Muslim Brotherhood growing increasingly influential, but remains a
small fraction of overall conversation (Favorable mentions vary
between 8-26% per country)
Salafi movement growing increasingly influential
Muslim Brotherhood to form political party in Egypt, but not other
countries
Increased ties between Saudi religious influencers & regional Islamic
organizations
Influential Islamic scholars more active on social media, compared to
moderate secular influencers – religious figure vie for media influence
8/7/2019 Arab Media Influence Report - Mar2011
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/arab-media-influence-report-mar2011 32/33
Future Trends to Monitor
Neo-Socialism trends across the Arab world
Growing influence of religious groups on politics
Increasing popularity of the Salafi movement in rural areas of Arab society
Continued awakening of the Arab consciousness in realizing their role in society
Need for Arab Unity to drive growth and development
Syria, Morocco, Algeria remain high oppressed societies with increasing calls for freedom
Shift in International policies: freedom includes freedom from external influences, dependencyon aid, etc.
Education, technology empowered the youth lead these revolutions
8/7/2019 Arab Media Influence Report - Mar2011
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/arab-media-influence-report-mar2011 33/33
Arab Media Influence Report
2011
Presented By:
Fadl Al Tarzi
Chief Operating OfficerNews Group International