Asian Petrochemical FeedstocksAsian Petrochemical Feedstocks
• To study the market demand and supply scenario (current and next twenty years) for the following petrochemical feedstocks and solvents in Indian, Asia Pacific and Asian Region– Ethylene – Propylene (both chemical and polymer grade)– Benzene, Toluene and Xylene– Isobutylene– Butene-2– LAB feedstock– Hexane– Naphthalene– Coke
Scope of the StudyScope of the Study
MethodologyMethodology• Primary and Secondary Survey• Past Trend Analysis to build a demand
forecasting model
Presentation OutlinePresentation Outline
• Industry Overview– Ethylene, Propylene, BTX, Butylenes, LAB Feedstock,
Hexane, Naphthalene, Coke• Demand Determinants• Asian Demand Projections
– Ethylene, Propylene, BTX, Butylenes, LAB Feedstock, Hexane, Naphthalene, Coke
• Indian Demand Projections– Ethylene, Propylene, BTX, Butylenes, LAB Feedstock,
Hexane, Naphthalene, Coke
OverviewOverview
Ethylene: where used?Ethylene: where used?
ETHYLENE
Polymers: HDPE,LLDPE, LDPEEthyl Benzene
Styrene
EthyleneDichloride
Vinyl ChlorideMonomer
PVC PS
EthyleneOxide
EthyleneGlycols
Other products, namely,vinyl acetate, acetaldehydeand alpha olefins
Polyester fibre,film, bottles
Ethylene: Consumption PatternEthylene: Consumption Pattern
As ia n Ethyle ne Cons um ption Endus e w is e 2 0 0 3
PE
54%
PV C
17%
EG
14%
SM
9%
Others
6%
Feedstock UsageFeedstock Usage
• Japan: Naphtha Based• Korea: Naphtha Based• Taiwan: Naphtha Based• ASEAN: Gas/Naphtha Based• China: Naphtha/Gas oil Based• India: Gas/Naphtha Based• Middle East: Mainly Gas Based
• Middle East highly competitive on account of cheap gas. Other countries gas cost is relatively high. Naphtha based crackers have profitability pressures whenever crude prices harden
Asian Ethylene ConsumptionAsian Ethylene Consumption
Asian Ethylene Consumption
25.0% 26.1% 26.8% 27.9% 28.7% 30.0% 30.0% 30.6%
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
'000
tonn
es
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
30.0%
35.0%
Asia Consumption Middle East Production Share of Asia
Ethylene Capacity Buildup in AsiaEthylene Capacity Buildup in Asia
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
Japan 7,639 7,366 7,583 7,679 7,695 7,857 7,433 7,535Rep. of Korea 3,950 4,483 5,005 5,145 5,230 5,760 5,550 5,550Taiwan 1,015 1,015 1,015 1,465 1,690 2,365 2,490 2,615China 3,818 3,859 4,059 4,257 4,429 4,749 5,379 5659Singapore 422 836 965 965 980 1,408 1,890 1,890Thailand 728 1,048 1,143 1,765 1,765 1,815 1,985 2,005Malaysia 550 590 630 630 960 960 1,560 1,560Indonesia 510 550 550 550 550 550 550 550Overall ASEAN 2210 3024 3288 3910 4255 4733 5985 6005India 525 1,291 1,366 1,670 2,285 2,390 2,365 2,465
Large Unfulfilled Demand in ChinaLarge Unfulfilled Demand in China
• Elsewhere in Asia, surplus in derivative capacity, and exports are mainly to China
Ch in e s e Ethyle ne Pr oduc tio n Cons um ption Tre nds
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
19 90 19 91 19 92 19 93 19 94 19 95 19 96 19 97 19 98 19 99 20 00 20 01 20 02 20 03
Ethylene Derivative Demand Ethylene Production
PetrochemicalsPetrochemicals
UPCYCLE
DOWNCYCLE
Demand: increasingPrice: risingProfit: increasingFresh investments:Picking upMergers &acquisitions:low
Demand: highMargins: highProfits: highFresh Investments: ighMergers & acquisition:negligible
Supply: increasingMargins: decliningProfits: decliningFresh investments: decliningMergers & acquisition:moderate
Significant overcapacityMargins: lowProfits: low to negativeFresh investment: lowMergers & acquisitions: high
Petrochemical CyclicalityPetrochemical Cyclicality
Middle East Cost CompetitivenessMiddle East Cost Competitiveness
Ethyle ne Cas h Cos t Com paris on
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
Saudi A rabia
Ethane
Gulf State
Ethane
Saudi A rabia
Propane
NW Europe
Naphtha
South Korea
Naphtha
US Gulf C oast
Naphtha
Canada Ethane US Gulf C oast
Ethane
J apan Naphtha
US $ per tonne ethylene
Net M aterials Utilities Direct F ixed C osts A llocated F ixed Costs
India Ethylene Key IssuesIndia Ethylene Key Issues
• Slowdown in domestic demand post commissioning of crackers• Earlier there were Supply constraints, supply constrained
demand got satisfied• In India, high level of recycling, So demand is even more price
linked• Plastic processing industry uncompetitive and facing
competitive pressures both in exports market and domestic.• States of western India consume bulk of ethylene largely
because of significant processing capacity in that location• After commissioning of HPL and GAIL crackers, the capacity for
plastic processing has increased in the northern and eastern India.
Indian Ethylene DemandIndian Ethylene Demand
India n Ethyle ne De riva tive De m a nd
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
1980-
81
1985-
86
1986-
87
1987-
88
1988-
89
1989-
90
1990-
91
1991-
92
1992-
93
1993-
94
1994-
95
1995-
96
1996-
97
1997-
98
1998-
99
1999-
2000
2000-
01
2001-
02
2002-
03
2003-
04
PE PV C M EG Styrenics
Indian Demand Capacity TrendsIndian Demand Capacity Trends
In d ia n Eth yle n e D e m a n d C a p a c ity T r e n d s
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
1980-
81
1985-
86
1986-
87
1987-
88
1988-
89
1989-
90
1990-
91
1991-
92
1992-
93
1993-
94
1994-
95
1995-
96
1996-
97
1997-
98
1998-
99
1999-
2000
2000-
01
2001-
02
2002-
03
2003-
04
Ethylene C apacity D erivative D emand
Statewise Ethylene DemandStatewise Ethylene Demand
• Based on location of plastic processing and textile industry and estimated consumption of ethylene in those industries.
Sta te w is e Ethyle ne De riva tive De m a nd
A P
8.5%
A ssam
0.2%
B ihar
0.6%
Goa
0.3%
Gujarat17.4%
Haryana
4.7%
HP
1.0%
J &K
0.1%
Kerala
0.8%
M P
3.9%
M aharashtra
13.4%
Orissa
0.5%
Rajasthan
3.4%
Tamil Nadu
10.9%
Tripura
0.0%
UP
9.4%
West B engal
6.7%
Dadra & Nagar Haveli
4.3%
J harkhand
0.1%
Punjab
2.5%
Daman & Diu
5.0%
Delhi
1.5%Chattisgarh
0.2%
Pondicherry
0.8%
Karnataka
3.6%
Uttaranchal
0.2%
Regionwise Demand and Share in GDPRegionwise Demand and Share in GDP
• Imbalance on account of large capacity of plastic processing and textile in Western India.
• Significant amount of finished plastic and textile products exported to other regions.
Ethylene Demand GDP Share
Northern India 22.8% 27.7%
Western India 44.1% 26.4%
Eastern India 8.2% 19.3%
Southern India 24.3% 26.7%
Propylene: How Produced?Propylene: How Produced?
• Co produced with ethylene in a steam cracker. Negligible for ethane based cracker, higher for propane and for naphtha based cracker, nearly 50% of ethylene production
• Co produced with gasoline. Yield in a typical FCC unit 2-4%, In two high olefinic modes, propylene yield can be 10% (as in Reliance) and 20% (deep catalytic cracking as in one of Thailand units and some plants in China)
• Propane Dehydrogenation. Highly Capital intensive, Can be a good source with cheap propane which can be available from countries with high quantites of wet natural gas
• Metathesis. Low Capital Intensity. Uses ethylene and butylene-2 as raw material. Can be effective if ethylene prices are low.
• Methanol to olefins: Moderately capital intensive. Requires cheaply available methanol
Propylene: How Consumed?Propylene: How Consumed?
PolymerGradePropylene Chemical Grade
Propylene
PROPYLENE
PolypropyleneEthylene/Propylenerubbers
Propyleneoxide
AcrylonitrileOxoalcohols
Cumene
Other products,namely, isopropylalcohol, acrylic acid,acrolein andpropylene dimer
Asian Propylene Demand SupplyAsian Propylene Demand Supply
Propy le ne Prod uc tion Con sum ption Tre nds
0
10,0 00
20,0 00
30,0 00
40,0 00
50,0 00
60,0 00
70,0 00
19 96 19 97 19 98 19 99 20 00 20 01 20 02 20 03
W orld Pr oduction A sian Pr oduction A sian Consumption M iddle East Pr oduction
Key Asian Propylene ProducersKey Asian Propylene Producers
As ia n P ropyle ne P roduc tion (2 4 .3 m illion tonne s , 2 0 0 3 )
South Korea
15.3%
Taiwan
7.7%
C hina
24.8%
A SEA N
14.0%
J apan
23.0%
India
7.1%
M iddle East
8.1%
Asian Propylene ProductionAsian Propylene Production
Asian Propylene Production Trends
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
Polymer Grade Chemical Grade
Asian Chemical Grade Enduse ConsumptionAsian Chemical Grade Enduse Consumption
As ia n Che m ic a l Gra de Endus e w is e Cons um ption
(2 0 0 3 , 8 .1 m illion tonne s )
A N
34%
C umene
15%Propylene Oxide
8%
Oxo alcohols
22%
A crylic A cid
11%
Others
10%
Polymer GradePolymer Grade
Asia n Polym e r Gra de Tr ends
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
W orld Polymer Grade Propylene C onsumptio n A sian Polymer Grade Propylene Productio nAs ian P olymer Grade P ro pylene C onsumption (Derivative) M iddle East Pol ymer Grad e Productio n
M iddle East Pol ymer Grad e C onsumptio n
China Polymer GradeChina Polymer Grade
China Propylene (polymer grade) Production Consumption Trends
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
Production Derivative Imports Consumption
China Chemical GradeChina Chemical GradeChinese Chemical Grade Production Consumption Trends
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
2000 2001 2002 2003
mn
ton
ne
s
Chemical Grade Propylene Production
Apparent Demand (chemical grade propylene demand)
Derivative Demand including met through derivative imports
Ethylene to Propylene PricesEthylene to Propylene Prices
• Fast demand growth for polypropylene
• More importantly, little co product production in Middle East gas based crackers
• So, profitability for naphtha based crackers higher in propyleneEthylene Vs Propylene Prices (South East Asia)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
Jan-
01
Mar
-01
May
-01
Jul-0
1
Sep
-01
Nov
-01
Jan-
02
Mar
-02
May
-02
Jul-0
2
Sep
-02
Nov
-02
Jan-
03
Mar
-03
May
-03
Jul-0
3
Sep
-03
Nov
-03
Jan-
04
Mar
-04
May
-04
Jul-0
4
US
$ / M
T
Ethylene Prices Propylene Prices
Propylene ProductionPropylene Production
India n P ropyle ne P roduc tion
0
200000
400000
600000
800000
1000000
1200000
1400000
1600000
1800000
2000000
1995-96 1996-97 1997-98 1998-99 1999-2000 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04
R efineries C rackers
Indian DemandIndian Demand
India n Propyle ne De riva tive De m a nd
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
1980-
81
1984-
85
1986-
87
1987-
88
1988-
89
1989-
90
1990-
91
1991-
92
1992-
93
1993-
94
1994-
95
1995-
96
1996-
97
1997-
98
1998-
99
1999-
2000
2000-
01
2001-
02
2002-
03
2003-
04
PP A N Others
Chemical Grade Demand SupplyChemical Grade Demand Supply
Indian Chem ica l Grade Prop ylene Pro duc tion C ons um ptio n Trends
0
50
1 00
1 50
2 00
2 50
3 00
3 50
4 00
4 50
5 00
199 4- 95 199 5- 96 199 6- 97 199 7- 98 199 8- 99 1 999- 20 00 200 0- 01 200 1- 02 200 2- 03 200 3- 04
chemical grade derivative cap acity chemical grade prop ylene chemical g rad e der ivat ive demand
Chemical Grade Derivative DemandChemical Grade Derivative Demand
Indian Chem ica l Grade Deriva tive Dem and, 2003 , 0 .46
m illion tonnes
A N
33.8%
Cumene
25.4%
Propylene Oxide
6.5%
Oxo alcohols
13.6%
A crylic A cid
5.3%
Others
15.3%
Regionwise Propylene DemandRegionwise Propylene Demand
Propylene (polymer grade) demand based on end productconsumption
Percentage share
Northern India 284 22.9%
Western India 557 44.8%
Eastern India 110 8.8%
Southern India 284 22.9%
Total 1242
Benzene: Where Used?Benzene: Where Used?
BENZENE
Ethyl Benzene
Styrene
Cumene
Phenol Acetone
Cyclohexane
Caprolactam Hexamethylenediamine
Adipic Acid
Nitrobenzene
Aniline
DetergentAlkylates
Other products: MAN,chlorobenzenes andresorcinol
PS
Bisphenol A
Polycarbonate
MDI
Polyurethane
Paraxylene: Where used?Paraxylene: Where used?
• PX used to produce both PTA and DMT• PX demand derived from polyester• Polyester used in textiles as fibres; in plastics (PET
bottles), films (various uses) and other products. • Largest use is in fibres, PET bottles hold significant
demand in the developed country• PX more important than Benzene in Asia primarily
because of large textile industry in Asia
Other BTXOther BTX
• Orthoxylene primarily used in production of pthalic anhydride
• Toluene used in tolylene di isocyanate, solvents and various chemicals
Asian BTX CapacityAsian BTX Capacity
As ia n BTX Ca pa c ity - 3 2 m illion tonne s 2 0 0 2
B enzene
45%
Toluene
4%
X ylene
51%
ParaxyleneParaxylene
As ia n P a ra x yle ne P roduc tion Cons um ption Tre nds
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
World Demand A sian Production A sian C onsumption
BenzeneBenzene
As ia n Be nze ne Produc tion Cons um ption Tre nds
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
35.0
40.0
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
World Demand A sian C onsumption A sian Production
BTX PricesBTX Prices
As ia n Ar om a tic P r ic e s
0
10 0
20 0
30 0
40 0
50 0
60 0
70 0
80 0
90 0
Nap htha B enzene Toluene PX OX M ixed X ylenes
Benzene, Toluene andXylenes DemandSupply and Prices
Capacity of BTX fromnaphtha Reforming andpyrolisis gasoline obtainedfrom ethylene crackers
Capacity Utilisation of ethylene, propylenecracker affected by ethylene propylenedemand supply price cost considerationswould determine supply of pyrolisis gasoline
Refining capacity utilisation, gasoline demandsupply will also influence reformate capacityutilisation
Demand from Various chemicalderivatives Polyester, Styrene, Phenol,nylon intermediates, pthalic anhydride,polyurethane, polycarbonate etc
Economic Growth which will influencepolymers, textiles, chemicals and gasolinedemand
Demand for Gasoline blending
Environmental Issues/Regulations
Indian Benzene Supply/ConsumptionIndian Benzene Supply/Consumption
• While some production is being exported, there are significant derivative imports
India n Be nzene Pro duc tion Co nsum p tion Tre nds
0
10 0
20 0
30 0
40 0
50 0
60 0
70 0
80 0
90 0
199 0-9 1 199 1-9 2 199 2-9 3 199 3-9 4 199 4-9 5 199 5-9 6 199 6-9 7 199 7-9 8 199 8-9 9 1 999-
200 0
200 0-0 1 200 1-0 2 200 2-0 3 200 3-0 4
Cap acity Production Impor ts Expor ts Apparent Co nsumption
Indian Benzene Derivative DemandIndian Benzene Derivative Demand
Indian Derivative Benzene Demand - 2003, 0.91 million tonnes
Styrene28%
Cumene25%
Nylon Intermediates
13%
Others34%
ParaxyleneParaxylene
In d ia n P a r a x yle n e P r o d u c t io n Co n s u m p tio n T r e n d s
-50 0
0
50 0
100 0
150 0
200 0
1985-
8 6
1986-
8 7
1987-
8 8
1988-
8 9
1989-
9 0
1990-
9 1
1991-
9 2
1992-
9 3
1993-
9 4
1994-
9 5
1995-
9 6
1996-
9 7
1997-
9 8
1998-
9 9
1999-
200 0
2000-
0 1
2001-
0 2
2002-
0 3
2003-
0 4
C ap acity P ro ductio n Impor ts A ppa rent C onsumptio n
Statewise BTX DemandStatewise BTX Demand
State BTX Estimated Demand
Andhra Pradesh 113Assam 3Bihar 8Goa 19Gujarat 484Haryana 47HP 28J&K 3Karnataka 76Kerala 35MP 94Maharashtra 427Orissa 7Punjab 92Rajasthan 102Tamil Nadu 298Tripura 0UP 147West Bengal 135Dadra & Nagar Haveli 91Daman & Diu 74Delhi 19Pondicherry 25Jharkhand 3Chattisgarh 4Uttaranchal 3Total 2339
C4 UtilisationC4 UtilisationC4 cut from refineries/petrochemicalcrackers
Butadiene Extraction using liquidextraction or extractivedistillationRemaining C4 product is calledcalled Raffinate - 1
Isobutylene extracted from C4 chain by reactingmethanol with it. Alternatively, Raffinate 1 canalso be used to extract feedstock for polybutene.Remaining C4 product is called called Raffinate- 2
Raffinate 2 which mostly contains n-butene can be used toproduce sec butyl alcohol or n-butene –1 can be extracted forpure n-butene 1 applications or n butenes can be isomerised toisobutyleneRemaining C4 product is hydrogenated / alkylated to yieldbutane/gasoline.
IsoButylenes: Where used?IsoButylenes: Where used?
ISOBUTYLENE
Naphtha/Gas Oil BasedEthylene Cracker
Fluidised Catalytic Crackingunit in a refinery
MethylTertiaryButyl Ether(MTBE)
Poly isobutylene(PIB)
MethylMethacrylate(MMA)
Other Chemicalssuch asButylated phenolsTertiary butyl alcoholt-butyl amines, t-butylmercaptan, methallylchloride, neopentanoic acidand isobutylene/maleicanhydride copolymers
Isobuteneisoprenerubber(butylrubber)
Used asoctanebooster ingasolines
Used intubes andtubelesstyres. Gasimpermeability
Used inadditivesforlubricants,adhesivesandsealants
PMMA the polymeris used in sheets andvarious other useswhere transparency,high strength andlight weight aredesirable features
Isobutene: Technology Driven End Isobutene: Technology Driven End ProductsProducts
• Technology for butyl rubber available with few and not easily shared
• High Purity Polyisobutylene technology also difficult• MMA technology from isobutylene also difficult + risk of new
technology getting developed
Large Production of Isobutene compared Large Production of Isobutene compared to non-fuel useto non-fuel use
• As against a net chemical demand of less than 1 million tonne, Asian isobutylene capacity was estimated to be higher than 5 million tonnes in 2003.
• A significant portion of the isobutylene production in Asia is converted to Methyl Tertiary Butyl Ether (a high octane gasoline blending component). Further, it can directly be blended with either gasoline or LPG.
Butyl Rubber-Largest Chemical UseButyl Rubber-Largest Chemical Use
• Used in tubes and tubeless tyres• Butyl rubber estimated demand for isobutylene is close to
0.33 mn tonne in Asian region. • Only two capacities in Asia. One owned by Japan Butyl rubber
and second by Sinopec Beijing Yanhua. A bulk of this demand is actually met by imports from Canada and Russia.
• With rising production of tubes and tubeless tyres in the region, the demand for butyl rubber has increased significantly.
Asian Butyl Rubber ConsumptionAsian Butyl Rubber Consumption
As ia n Butyl Rubbe r Cons um ption
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
350000
1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
C hina Korea J apan Taiwan A SEA N India Other A sia
Indian Isobutylene Demand SupplyIndian Isobutylene Demand Supply
• Bulk of production for fuel blending purposes• Entire butyl rubber and high purity polyisobutylene imported.
• Co polyisobutylene/chemicals produced in India.
India n Is obutyle ne Produc tion Cons um ption Tre nds
0
100000
200000
300000
400000
500000
600000
1995-96 1996-97 1997-98 1998-99 1999-2000 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04
Total Production C onsumption for polyisobutylene and chemicals Derivative Imports Fuel Use
Butene- 2 Where used?Butene- 2 Where used?
• No significant chemical use of pure butene -2
• n butenes (butene 1 + butene 2) are used to produce sec butyl alcohol used to produce methyl ethyl ketone
Asian Methyl Ethyl Ketone CnsumptionAsian Methyl Ethyl Ketone Cnsumption
• Metathesis units yet to start on commercial scale in Asia
Asian Methyl Ethyl Ketone Consumption, 640,000 tonnes, 2003
ASEAN11.7%
China35.5%
Korea20.2%
Taiwan15.5%
India2.3%
Japan13.1%
Other Asia1.5%
Asian n Paraffin ConsumptionAsian n Paraffin Consumption
Asian N - Paraffin Extraction Trends
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
'000
ton
nes
Japan Taiwan Korea ASEAN China India
N Paraffin Consumption TrendsN Paraffin Consumption Trends
Indian N Paraffin Consumption Trends
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
40019
83-8
4
1984
-85
1985
-86
1986
-87
1987
-88
1988
-89
1989
-90
1990
-91
1991
-92
1992
-93
1993
-94
1994
-95
1995
-96
1996
-97
1997
-98
1998
-99
1999
-200
0
2000
-01
2001
-02
2002
-03
2003
-04
'000
tonn
es
N Paraffins: Where used?N Paraffins: Where used?• The predominant use of n paraffins is in manufacture
of linear alkyl benzene. More than 85% of n paraffins worldwide are used for production of linear alkyl benzene.
• The other uses of n paraffins include production of – High grade alcohol, – chlorinated paraffin, – nitro-alkanes and amines, – Sulphoxidation or sulphochlorination for surfactant or plasticiser
manufacture,– Raw material for microbiological oxidation or fermentation process and – direct use as a solvent in many applications.
N paraffin PricesN paraffin Prices• The prices of n paraffin are dependent on the prices of kerosene, which, in turn,
are dependent on the prices of crude oil. • With the return stream of n paraffin extraction plant (about 80% of original stream)
being thus valued at much lower value, the prices of n paraffin would be equal to differential between two kerosene streams applied to n paraffin plus the cost of volume of n paraffins plus other costs and are thus, significantly higher than the prices of kerosene (differentials are around US$ 300-400 per MT).
• Over the last ten years, there has been an increase in merchant sales of n-paraffins to new LAB plants in the developing world. At the same time, supplies of traditional feedstocks that are rich in n-paraffin have declined. The production of normal paraffins is influenced by the availability of n-paraffin-rich kerosene at the n-paraffin producing facilities. This has been in relatively short supply, compared to previous years, contributing to the tight market situation and high prices of n paraffins.
• New Fischer-Tropsch units designed to meet the growing demand for low-sulfur fuels are expected to provide new supplies of coproduct paraffins, possibly in large quantities, bringing much respite for standalone producer.
Hexane Key IssuesHexane Key Issues
• 90% of demand arises from edible oil sector wherein its low cost and high level of usefulness lead to its domination
• Out of total solvent demand, edible oil extraction is about 2% of the demand in a mature market.
• Health concerns over Hexane on account of its established linkage with inducing neuropathy if consumed in significant quantities. On a health hazard spectrum of 0 - 3 n-Hexane registers 1.3.
Most exposure cases reported at worksites and related to inhalation
Solvent ExtractionSolvent Extraction
Indian Hexane ConsumptionIndian Hexane Consumption
Indian Hexane Consumption Trends
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
1991-92 1995-96 1996-97 1997-98 1998-99 1999-2000 2000-2001 2001-2002(April - Feb)
2002-2003 2003-2004
Hexane Consumption
Why is consumption declining?Why is consumption declining?
• Oilseeds availability in India is uncertain and inadequate• Therefore, Crude edible oil getting increasingly imported in India
to meet growing demand• Edible oil extractors have been inefficient in using hexane as
solvent and with improving efficiency levels, their per unit hexane consumption has been declining
• On an average, extractors in the US& EU consume less than 20% of Indian per unit hexane consumption in edible oil sector
Statewise DemandStatewise Demand
• Statewise Demand
3.2
0.0 0.0
3.5
0.71.5
0.2
8.2
3.5
0.1
1.1
2.1
0.81.2
0.3 0.10
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
An
dh
ra
Pra
de
sh
As
sa
m
Bih
ar
Gu
jara
t
Ha
rya
na
Ka
rna
taka
Ke
rala
Ma
dh
ya
Pra
ds
h
Ma
ha
rsh
tra
Ori
ss
a
Pu
nja
b
Ra
jas
tha
n
Ta
mil
Na
du
Utt
ar
Pra
de
sh
We
st
Be
ng
al
Po
nd
ich
err
y
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
No. of units (LHS) Processing capacity (in million tonnes of oil cake)
Asian Hexane Demand SupplyAsian Hexane Demand Supply
• Asian production of hexane assuming a 5% of gasoline as hexane production would be close to 7.5 million tonne
• Required extraction for edible oil sector is only around 0.6 million tonnes.
• Extraction capacities in India, China, Malaysia, Indonesia
NaphthaleneNaphthalene
• Can be produced from Met-coke/Refineries
• Used in manufacture of PAN; Construction; Textiles
• Asian region – Potential Supply position is over 5 times the demand. Major deterrent for capacity addition.
• Naphthalene content in crude around 0.5 to 2% so a 10 million tonne refinery would have 100,000 tonne production
NaphthaleneNaphthaleneCoal
Coke OvenBatteries
CokeCoal Tar Light Oil
Benzene TolueneSoft Pitch Naphthalene
Creosote Oils
PhthalicAnhydride(PAN): used inpaints and asplasticisers.
Sulfonatednaphthaleneformaldehydecondensates
- naphthol‘tobias acid’ J- acidetc used indyestuffs pigments
Mothballs,Other new products such ascarbonless paper solvent, PENresin used for CD player tape andhigh temperature resistance bottle,BON 6 which is a raw material forliquid crystal display.
Asian Naphthalene production from coalAsian Naphthalene production from coal
Naphthalene Production from Coke Oven Gas
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
China India J apan South Korea Pakistan Taiwan
Statewise Naphthalene Demand (0.35 Statewise Naphthalene Demand (0.35 million tonnes)million tonnes)
State Share in consumption
Andhra Pradesh 6.5%
Assam 0.1%
Bihar 0.1%
Gujarat 18.2%
Haryana 1.3%
Himachal Pradesh 1.6%
Jammu & Kashmir 0.3%
Karnataka 3.2%
Kerala 1.8%
Madhya Pradesh 5.5%
Maharashtra 14.8%
Orissa 0.2%
Punjab 6.9%
Rajasthan 7.0%
Tamil Nadu 22.3%
Uttar Pradesh 4.1%
West Bengal 7.1%
CokeCoke
• Two major grades – Calcined and non-calcined• Calcined coke commands price premium• Power Generation, Cement, Aluminium – major
industries• Strong volatility in product demand• Japan – Leading consumer• India, China – Surplus situation
Asian Petcoke CapacityAsian Petcoke Capacity
Asia: S hare in P etC oke C apacity
23.6%
15.4%
12.5%9.4%9.1%
6.4%
4.7%
4.0%3.3%
2.2%
1.7%
3.4%3.5%0.6%
0.4%
India
China
Rus s ia
Kuw ait
Taiw an
Japan
A z erbaijan
South Korea
Turkmenis tan
Turkey
Kaz akhs tan
Malay s ia
Uz bekis tan
Sy r ia
My anmar
Demand DeterminantsDemand Determinants
Ethylene Projections: Demand Ethylene Projections: Demand DeterminantsDeterminants
ECONOMY
GROWTH
POLYMERDEMAND
FIBREDEMAND
RUBBERDEMAND
Export Competitivenessof Plastic Processing
Export Competitivenessof Textiles and Apparel
Export Competitiveness ofTyres and other downstreamindustries
LDPE/LLDPEDEMAND
HDPEDEMAND
PVCDEMAND
EGDEMAND
STYRENEDEMAND
OTHER PRODUCTSDEMAND
ETHYLENEDEMAND
Propylene (chemical grade) Projections: Propylene (chemical grade) Projections: Demand DeterminantsDemand Determinants
ECONOMY
GROWTH
POLYMERDEMAND
FIBREDEMAND
Paints andCoatings
Export Competitivenessof Plastic Processing
Export Competitivenessof Textiles and Apparel
Export Competitiveness ofAutomobile, AutoAncillary, Consumerdurables
AcrylonitrileDemand
Cumene Demand
Propylene OxideDemand
Acrylic AcidDemand
Oxo AlcoholsDemand
OTHER PRODUCTSDEMAND
Propylene (ChemicalGrade) DEMAND
Propylene (polymer grade) Projections: Propylene (polymer grade) Projections: Demand DeterminantsDemand Determinants
ECONOMY
GROWTH
POLYMERDEMAND
FIBREDEMAND
Export Competitivenessof Plastic Processing
Export Competitivenessof Textiles and Apparel
PolypropyleneDEMAND
Polymer GradePropylene Demand
Price, QualityCompetitiveness ofPolypropylene vis-à-visother polymers and fibres
BTX Projections: Demand DeterminantsBTX Projections: Demand DeterminantsSTYRENEDEMAND 50%
ECONOMY
GROWTH
BENZENEDEMAND
NYLONDEMAND 15% POLYMER
DEMAND
GASOLINE DEMAND
BTXDemand
FIBREDEMAND
RUBBERDEMAND
TOLUENEDEMAND
ANILINE,PHENOLDEMAND 20%
PLASTICISERDEMAND
SOLVENT DEMAND
TDIDEMAND %
PARAXYLENEDEMAND
POLYESTERDEMAND
ORTHOXYLENEDEMAND
METAXYLENEDEMAND
ISOPHTHALLICACID DEMAND
PHTHALICANHYDRIDEDEMAND
PREMIUMDETERGENT
Iso Butylene: Demand DeterminantsIso Butylene: Demand Determinants
ECONOMY
GROWTH
Automobile Demand
PolyisobutyleneDemand
MethylMethacrylateDemand
Demand for otherchemicals
Iso butyleneDemand
Butyl RubberDemand
Gasoline Demand
Methyl TertiaryButyl Ether Demand
PolymerDemand
Cis / Trans Butene 2: Demand Cis / Trans Butene 2: Demand DeterminantsDeterminants
ECONOMY
GROWTH
Gasoline Demand
HeavierCrudes
LPG Demand
Methyl Ethyl KetoneDemand
Propylene Demand
Cis/TransButene –2Demand
AlkylationDemand
Higher Propylene DemandLower Ethylene Prices / Availability ofcheaper ethylene in the global market
LAB Feedstock: Demand DeterminantsLAB Feedstock: Demand Determinants
ECONOMY
GROWTH
Improvement in incomes leads to higher purchasing power
Increase in possible population ormarket size that can afford syntheticdetergents
Increase in demand for LAB and other surfactant rawmaterials which compete on properties and prices.
Increase in demand for nparaffins
Increase in demand forchlorinated paraffins,plasticisers, solvents, metalcutting fluids etc.
Hexane: Demand DeterminantsHexane: Demand Determinants
• Hexane consumption linked to growth in edible oil extraction through solvent extraction processes
• With import of edible oil, this may not be linked to GDP growth
• Also, efficiency of solvent extraction process in India and other Asian countries is on the rise on account of inefficient facilities.
Naphthalene: Demand DeterminantsNaphthalene: Demand Determinants
ECONOMY
GROWTH
InfrastructureDEMAND
FIBREDEMAND
Paints
Export Competitivenessof Textiles and Apparel
Export Competitiveness ofAutomobile, AutoAncillary, Consumerdurables
ConstructionDemand
Textile DyesDemand
Phthalic AnhydrideDemand
OTHER PRODUCTSDEMAND
NaphthaleneDEMAND
Market Dynamicsof Ortho Xylene
Coke: Demand DeterminantsCoke: Demand Determinants
ECONOMY
GROWTH
InfrastructureDEMAND
Cable, PackagingDEMAND
Energy Demand
RelativeCompetitiveness ofAlternate Fuel
Cement Demand
AluminiumDemand
Power Demand
OTHER PRODUCTSDEMAND
PetCoke DEMAND
RelativeCompetitiveness ofAlternate Fuel
Polymer Industry linked to GDP GrowthPolymer Industry linked to GDP Growth
W orld G DP ve rsu s P o lym e r Dem a nd
0 .00 %
2 .00 %
4 .00 %
6 .00 %
8 .00 %
1 0 .00 %
19 9 0 19 9 1 19 9 2 19 9 3 19 9 4 19 9 5 19 9 6 19 9 7 19 9 8 19 9 9 20 0 0 20 0 1
Ye a r
%
GD P g r o w th ra te Po lym er D e m a n d g r o w th ra te
Per Capita Income Vs Polymer Per Capita Income Vs Polymer ConsumptionConsumption
Comparison of per capita incomes and polymer consumption - 2001
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
80.0
90.0
India China Middle Ea st
Indonesia Thailand Malaysia South Korea
Singapore Australia Japan USA
Per Capita Polymer Consumption (kgs) GDP per capita ('000 US$, purchasing power parity)
Plastic Processing Industry ExportsPlastic Processing Industry Exports
(mn tonnes) China Korea Germany The US
1998 3.1 0.7 2.9 0.91999 3.3 0.8 3.1 0.92000 4 0.8 3.4 12001 4.4 0.8 3.7 1.12002 5.3 0.9 4 1.1
SSI Reservation limits Indian Downstream SSI Reservation limits Indian Downstream Plastic Processing SectorPlastic Processing Sector
Ave rage Size of Plas tic Proces s ing Unit In dia Vs Wor ld
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
USA Germany Canada Brazil China India
tonnes per annum
Textile Industry linked to GDP GrowthTextile Industry linked to GDP Growth
Industry Overview
World Fibre De m and Vs GDP
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001
%
World Fibre World GDP
Agreement on Textile & ClothingAgreement on Textile & Clothing
• Agreement on Textile and Clothing has given way to application of WTO framework on international textile trade
• For the first time in last four decades, free textile trade to take place
• Increase in export market for developing countries as also increase in competition
• Although China, can expand its share at the cost of others single handedly, however, developed world unlikely to have single supplier. In addition, China joined WTO late and so developed countries have an option of imposing restrictions of Chinese growth
Asia Becoming a Manufacturing Base Asia Becoming a Manufacturing Base to Supply to Worldto Supply to World
Naft a
M iddle
EastAsia
E urope
Feedstock and Petrochemicals
Labor Intensive Products and Finished Goods
??
??
PPP Per Capita GDP 1993PPP Per Capita GDP 1993
P u r c h a s in g P o w e r P a r ity Ba s e d P e r C a p ita G DP s - De v e lo p in g A s ia
Th a ila n d
S r i L a n kaCh in a
Ma la y s ia
Fiji
In d o n e s ia
Ph illip in e s
L a o s
In d ia
B a n g la d e s h
Ca mb o d iaNe p a l
My a n ma r
Pa kis ta n
0
1 0 0 0
2 0 0 0
3 0 0 0
4 0 0 0
5 0 0 0
6 0 0 0
PPP Per capita GDP 2003PPP Per capita GDP 2003
P u r c h a s in g P o w e r P a r i t y B a s e d P e r C a p i t a G D P s - D e v e lo p in g A s ia
T h a ila n d
P a k is ta n
M y a n m a r
N e p a lC a m b o d ia
B a n g la d e s h
B h u ta n
In d ia
L a o s
P h illip in e sIn d o n e s ia
F iji
M a la y s ia
C h in a
S r i L a n k a
0
2 0 0 0
4 0 0 0
6 0 0 0
8 0 0 0
1 0 0 0 0
1 2 0 0 0
China GDP a nd Grow th
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
19
81
19
83
19
85
19
87
19
89
19
91
19
93
19
95
19
97
19
99
20
01
20
03
Bil
lio
n R
en
min
bi
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
14.0%
16.0%
%
Real GDP Grow th Rate
Rising Economic Development in China, Rising Economic Development in China, Increasing Development in China in comparison Increasing Development in China in comparison
to other Countriesto other Countries
China Export Led GrowthChina Export Led Growth
High Exports in Labour Intensive IndustriesHigh Exports in Labour Intensive Industries
Product s in w hich China has s ignifican t s hare in th e Export M arket
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
sh
are
in
%
Feedstock SituationFeedstock Situation• Middle East has large gas reserves• Oil demand set to rise on account of increasing development• Oil trade likely to increase as more demand increases in India
and China wherein crude production not increasing sufficiently. • FSU/Middle East to be the main suppliers to meet increase in
demand• Middle East needs to increase oil capacity in case it plans to meet
this demand.• In past, whenever, Middle East capacity utilisation has been high,
prices have gone high.• However, even availability of reserves in Middle East is an issue.
Saudi Arabia not able to increase production. Reserves not updated.
• Oil prices and consequently naphtha prices to remain high.
Further Increase in Middle Further Increase in Middle East CapacityEast Capacity
Country Capacity Increase 2003-2013 2014-2024Saudi Arabia 6.3 5Iran 9.3 9Qatar 2.0 2.0Kuwait 1.0 1.0Iraq 1.0 2.0UAE 0.6 0
China Vs India PetrochemChina Vs India Petrochem
Factor China IndiaPast Government Policy 4 2Infrastructure 3 1.5Power 3.5 1Financial Sector 1.5 3Downstream Sector Development and its future 4 2.0Feedstock and other inputs 2 2Investor Confidence in Manufacturing 4 1.5
Asian Demand ProjectionsAsian Demand Projections
Asian Ethylene Asian Ethylene
Asian Ethylene Demand
0.0
20.0
40.0
60.0
80.0
100.0
120.0
140.0
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
mn
tonn
es
Polyethylene PVC EG SM Others
Asian EthyleneAsian Ethylene
Asian Ethylene Demand
0.0
20.0
40.0
60.0
80.0
100.0
120.0
140.0
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
mn
tonn
es
Japan Korea Taiwan ASEAN China India Other Asia Middle East
Asian Propylene (chemical grade) Asian Propylene (chemical grade)
Asian Chemical Grade Propylene Demand
0.00
2.00
4.00
6.00
8.00
10.00
12.00
14.00
16.00
18.00
20.00
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
mn
tonn
es
AN Cumene Propylene Oxide Oxo alcohols Acrylic Acid Others
Asian Chemical Grade PropyleneAsian Chemical Grade Propylene
Asian Chemical Grade Propylene Demand
0.00
2.00
4.00
6.00
8.00
10.00
12.00
14.00
16.00
18.00
20.00
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
mn
tonn
es
Japan Korea Taiwan ASEAN China India Other Asia
Asian Propylene (polymer grade)Asian Propylene (polymer grade)
Asian Polymer Grade Propylene Demand
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
35.0
40.0
45.0
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
mn
tonn
es
Japan Korea Taiwan ASEAN China India Middle East Other Asia
Asian BenzeneAsian Benzene
Asian Benzene Demand
0.00
5.00
10.00
15.00
20.00
25.00
30.00
35.00
40.00
45.00
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
mn
tonn
es
Styrene Cumene Nylon Intermediates Others
Asian BenzeneAsian Benzene
Asian Benzene Demand
0.00
5.00
10.00
15.00
20.00
25.00
30.00
35.00
40.0020
03
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
mn
tonn
es
Japan Korea Taiwan ASEAN China India Other Asia
Asian ParaxyleneAsian Paraxylene
Asian Paraxylene Demand
0.00
5.00
10.00
15.00
20.00
25.00
30.00
35.00
40.00
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
mn
tonn
es
PET fibre PET film PET bottles Others
Asian ParaxyleneAsian Paraxylene
Asian Paraxylene Demand
0.00
5.00
10.00
15.00
20.00
25.00
30.00
35.00
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
mn
tonn
es
Japan Korea Taiwan ASEAN China India Other Asia
Asian BTXAsian BTX
Asian BTX Demand
0.00
10.00
20.00
30.00
40.00
50.00
60.00
70.00
80.00
90.00
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
mn
tonn
es
Benzene Paraxylene Orthoxylene Toluene
Asian IsobutyleneAsian Isobutylene
Asian Isobutylene Demand
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
000
tonn
es
Butyl Rubber Polyisobutylene Others
Asian IsobutyleneAsian Isobutylene
Asian Isobutylene Demand
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
000
tonn
es
Japan Korea Taiwan ASEAN China India Other Asia
Asian Iso Butylene from MMAAsian Iso Butylene from MMA
Fu ture Is o butyle ne C ons um ption in M MA a s s um ing 4 0 % of Ca pa c ity ba s e d on is obu tyle ne
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
C hina India J apan Korea A SEAN Taiwan O ther A si a
Asian N Butene Demand from MEKAsian N Butene Demand from MEK
Asian Methyl Ethyl Ketone (Cis / trans Butene -2) Demand
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
'000
ton
nes
Japan Korea Taiwan ASEAN China India Other Asia
Asian Butene -2 Demand from MetathesisAsian Butene -2 Demand from Metathesis
Company Country Process PropyleneCapacity (’000
tonnes peryear)
ButyleneRequirement
ScheduledCommissioning
Date
AsiaBP plc, SeccoPetrochemicalCo
China Metathesis 140 92 2005
MitsuiChemicals Inc.
Japan Metathesis 140 92 2004
NipponPetrochemicalsCo.
Japan Metathesis 150 99 2005
SumitomoChemicals
Japan Metathesis 350 231 2007
PCS Singapore
Metathesis 200 132 2006
FormosaPetrochemicalCorp
Taiwan Steam Cracking/metathesis
250 165 2006
Rest of WorldBASF AGAtofina
US Metathesis 312 206 2004
Asian LAB FeedstockAsian LAB Feedstock
Asian N-Paraffins Demand
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
'000
ton
nes
Japan Korea Taiwan ASEAN China India Other Asia
Asian HexaneAsian Hexane
Asian Hexane Demand
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
'000
ton
nes
China India Other South-Asia ASEAN Japan Middle East Other Asia
Asian NaphthaleneAsian Naphthalene
Asian Naphthalene Demand
0.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
3.00
3.50
4.00C
Y20
03
CY
2004
CY
2005
CY
2006
CY
2007
CY
2008
CY
2009
CY
2010
CY
2011
CY
2012
CY
2013
CY
2014
CY
2015
CY
2016
CY
2017
CY
2018
CY
2019
CY
2020
CY
2021
CY
2022
CY
2023
mn
tonn
es
Japan Korea ASEAN China India
Asian CokeAsian Coke
Asian Pet Coke Demand
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
CY
2003
CY
2004
CY
2005
CY
2006
CY
2007
CY
2008
CY
2009
CY
2010
CY
2011
CY
2012
CY
2013
CY
2014
CY
2015
CY
2016
CY
2017
CY
2018
CY
2019
CY
2020
CY
2021
CY
2022
CY
2023
'000
ton
nes
Japan Korea Taiwan Malaysia China India
India: Demand ProjectionsIndia: Demand Projections
India: EthyleneIndia: Ethylene
Indian Ethylene Demand
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
16.0
18.0
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
mn
tonn
es
Polyethylene PVC EG SM Others
India: Propylene Chemical GradeIndia: Propylene Chemical Grade
Indian Chemical Grade Propylene Demand
0.00
0.20
0.40
0.60
0.80
1.00
1.20
1.40
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
mn
tonn
es
AN Cumene Propylene Oxide Oxo alcohols Acrylic Acid Others
India: PropyleneIndia: Propylene
Indian Propylene Demand
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
mn
tonn
es
Polymer Grade Chemical Grade
India: BenzeneIndia: Benzene
Indian Benzene Demand
0.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
3.00
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
mn
tonn
es
Styrene Cumene Nylon Intermediates Others
India: ParaxyleneIndia: Paraxylene
Indian Paraxylene Demand
0.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
3.00
3.50
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
mn
tonn
es
PET fibre PET film PET bottles Others
India: BTXIndia: BTX
Indian BTX Demand
0.00
1.00
2.00
3.00
4.00
5.00
6.00
7.00
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
mn
tonn
es
Benzene Paraxylene Orthoxylene Toluene
Indian IsobutyleneIndian Isobutylene
Indian Isobutylene Demand
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
'000
ton
nes
Butyl Rubber Polyisobutylene Others Butyl Rubber Polyisobutylene Others
India: n ButeneIndia: n Butene
Indian Methyl Ethyl Ketone (Cis / trans Butene -2) Demand
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
'000
ton
nes
India: HexaneIndia: Hexane
Indian Hexane Demand
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
' 000
ton
nes
Hexane
India: N paraffinsIndia: N paraffins
Indian N-Paraffins Demand
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
'000
ton
nes
India NaphthaleneIndia Naphthalene
India Naphthalene Demand
0.00
0.10
0.20
0.30
0.40
0.50
0.60
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
mn
tonn
es
India: CokeIndia: Coke
Indian Pet Coke Demand
0.0
500.0
1000.0
1500.0
2000.0
2500.0
3000.0
3500.0
4000.0
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
'000
ton
nes
Pet Coke
Statewise GDP GrowthStatewise GDP Growth
State Differential over GDP Growth AP, Gujarat, Karnataka, Delhi, HP, Goa, Pondicherry 1Bihar, some states in North East, Andaman & Nicobar -1
Statewise Demand 2023Statewise Demand 2023
• Statewise Demand based on GDP growth
Ethylene(million tonnes)Propylene Polymer Grade ('000 tonnes)
Propylene Chemical Grade ('000 tonnes) BTX ('000 tonnes) Isobutylene (tonnes)
N paraffins (tonnes)
Andhra Pradesh 1.4 371.4 113 623 14249 54167Northern India 4.17 1,074 327 1,801 41,202 156,620 Western India 4.07 1,047 319 1,755 40,160 152,663 Eastern India 2.68 690 210 1,157 26,462 100,591 Southern India 4.37 1,125 343 1,887 43,176 164,126
India: Critical IssuesIndia: Critical Issues
• When would SSI dereservation take place?
• How India competes in international textile post WTO accession?
Summary/ConclusionsSummary/Conclusions
Product Market Size Growth Profitability in Asian region(including India but excludingMiddle East)
Ethylene Very Large Fast Low to Medium & CyclicalPropylene(PolymerGrade)
Large Medium to Fast(Expected to beSlower thanethylene andsupplyconstrainedcost issuesalso)
Medium to high & Cyclical
Propylene(chemicalgrade)
Medium Medium to Fast Medium & Cyclical
BTX Large Medium to Fast Medium & CyclicalIsoButene Small Medium to Fast High and less cyclical in select
derivative products wheretechnology is not easily accessible,but low to medium in other productswith higher degree of cyclicality
Summary/ConclusionsSummary/ConclusionsProduct Market Size Growth Profitability in Asian region
(including India but excludingMiddle East)
Cis trans butene2
Small SlowBut could behigher from metathesisapplicationswhich willdepend onethylene topropyleneprices
Low & cyclical
LAB feedstock Medium Medium Currently profitability high becauseof shortage of n paraffins, but infuture because of commisioning ofseveral GTL projects, there may besignificant overcapacity andcorrespondingly a decline in margins
Hexane Small Declining Currently high in India because oftariff structure which is likely tochange in the medium term
Naphthalene Small Slow Profitability from refineries expectedto be low
Coke Medium,supply driven
Slow Profitability for power grade petcoke is low, but high for calcinedpetroleum coke