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FUELSTANDARDFORTRUCKS:
CAVEATSANDIMPLICATIONSFOROILCONSUMPTION
Presented at theASPO 2010 World Oil ConferenceWashington, D.C., October 2010
RogerH.Bezdek,Ph.D.,President
ManagementInformationServices,Inc.Washington,D.C.,[email protected]
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INTRODUCTION
In face of impending oil constraints, people demandthat governments do something!
Policy recommendation frequently made is increasedvehicle fuel efficiency standards
These currently exist for cars U.S. is currently developing these fuel standards for
trucks
This is extremely difficult and complex as I discuss
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FUEL STANDARDS FOR TRUCKS
Fuel economy standards for trucks have never beendeveloped before
These will have major, long-lasting economic & oil effects in
U.S. and worldwide Here I:
-- Summarize National Academies of Science (NAS) study
-- Assess problems of developing these standards-- Discuss methods of truck fuel standard regulation
-- Note major recommendations made
-- Analyze pitfalls, caveats, and unintended consequences-- Estimate potential oil savings
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BACKGROUND
Energy Independence & Security Act of 2007:
-- NHTSA must develop fuel economy standards for
medium duty & heavy duty (MDHD) trucks-- NHTSA hired NAS to assist I
served on NAS Committee
Chronology:
-- NAS work began 11-08; final
report 4-10
-- Presentations made to White House, NHTSA, EPA,DOE March-April 2010
-- Obama directive May 21, 2010: Standards will beissued by 7-31-11 & begin in MY 20144
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ISSUES AND CAVEATS
NHTSA directive to NAS: Help develop standards, notassess whether they are needed
Are fuel efficiency standards for trucks needed?
CAFE justified: passenger cars not sensitive to fuel costs
However, trucking industry very cost sensitive:
-- Highly competitive
-- Fuel is major cost of doing business
-- Reacts to even small changes in fuel costs
-- Fuel efficiency has been increasing ~ 1%/year
CAFE point of reg.: Auto manufacturers; MDHD point ofreg. not clear
Nevertheless, NAS mandate: Help develop fuel
standards, not determine if they are required5
http://images.google.com/imgres?imgurl=http://zeus.concordia.ca/jmannadiar/pics/dollar%20sign.gif&imgrefurl=http://zeus.concordia.ca/jmannadiar/&h=480&w=480&sz=14&hl=en&start=36&um=1&tbnid=gRTRosInMnih6M:&tbnh=129&tbnw=129&prev=/images?q=dollar+sign+picture&start=20&ndsp=20&svnum=10&um=1&hl=en&rls=SUNA,SUNA:2005-49,SUNA:en&sa=N8/7/2019 ASPO 2010 Slides
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MDHDs FUEL USE LARGE & INCREASING
MDHDs use 26% of all U.S. liquid trans fuels 30% by 2030
Truck Fuel Consumption
(80% used by large trucks)
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FOCUSED ON VEHICLE & DUTY CYCLES
18 classes of trucks compared to 2 (cars & light trucks) for CAFE7
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MANAGEABLE LEVEL OF DETAIL NEEDED
> 100 basic configurations listed by a singlemanufacturer
Many options within each configuration create 1,000sof potential truck specs
~ 10x range of vehicle mass
~ Dozen representative duty cycles Sales spread across ~ 10 major manufacturers,
final body fit by many more
Engine, chassis, driveline, body
from different manufacturers
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MDHD FUEL USE DOMINATED BY
CLASS 8, CLASS 2B & CLASS 6
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MDHD POWER AND ENERGY BASICS
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ROADMAP FOR DIESEL HD 53%
THERMAL EFFICIENCY BY 2019
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AERODYNAMIC EFFICIENCY
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Aerodynamicsleepertractoraerofeatureidentification
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WIDE-BASED SINGLE TIRES
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New generation wide-based tires can increasefuel economy by 10% for combination trucks
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TECHNOLOGIES & COSTS OF
REDUCING FUEL CONSUMPTION
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WHO TO REGULATE?
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METRICS OF FUEL CONSUMPTION
Metrics should be based on energy or fuel consumption i.e. equivalent diesel gal/cargo ton-mile
Metrics should incentivize subcomponent & total vehicledevelopment
Metrics should relate to the
transport task or vehicle vocation Metrics should encourage energy
conservation for given task
Fuel type used will likely change
over time
Energy density varies with fuel type
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HOW TO REGULATE
Regulate final stage vehicle manufacturers since theyhave greatest control over vehicle design & major
subsystems that affect fuel consumption Establish fuel consumption metrics tied to task
associated with particular type
of MDHD
Set targets based on
improvements in vehicle
efficiency or trailer
changes to increase
cargo carrying capacity
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CONGRESS: CONSIDER LIBERALIZING
WEIGHT & SIZE RESTRICTIONS
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IllustrativeProjectionsofFuelConsumptionSavings
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GOVT. R&D SUPPORT REQUIRED
Fed. Govt.: Support programs in industries, national labs, pvt.companies & universities to develop MDHD technologies forreducing fuel consumption
NHTSA: Engineering contract for vehicles covering severalapplications & approaches to component testing data inconjunction with simulation modeling to derive LSFC data
NHTSA: Pilot program to test drive certificationprocess & validate regulatory proof of concept
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INDIRECT EFFECTS & EXTERNALITIES
Replacement rate of older vehicles Purchasing one class of vehicle in response to
regulatory change (vehicle class shifting) Fleet turnover impacts Increased ton-miles shipped
due to lower shipping cost Rebound effect Congestion & costs
Safety & incremental weightImpacts Environmental co-benefits
& costs20
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INDIRECT EFFECTS & EXTERNALITIES
Fleet Turnover Effects
How will regs affect new vehicle prices,
operating costs & fleet turnover? Pre-Buy early purchase behavior
Low-Buy dip in purchases after
introduction of new vehiclesTon-Miles Traveled & Rebound Effect
Fuel consumption improvements can affect operating costs
Rebound effect cost reductions cause truck traffic increases,partially offsetting individual truck fuel saving
Recommendation: NHTSA conduct economic/paybackanalysis based on fuel usage by application & different fuelprice scenarios
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FUEL TAXES v REGULATIONS
Tax affects incentives for all elements in freight transportationsystem & provides incentives for efficiency
Tax affects existing vehicles; standards affect only new ones
Fuel standard produces unintended consequences Tax will reduce miles driven, reducing congestion, accidents, etc.
Trucking industry is competitive: With tax-induced higher fuelprices, firms will optimize operations
Fuel taxes increase highway trust fund
Tax shows the additional costs imposed
on truck sector; standards obscure costs
Tax minimizes information needed by
regulators & gives incentives to firms
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MDHDPETROLEUMCONSUMPTION,20082030
By2030,MDHDFuel ConsumptionReduced~10% 25%
Butnotice: Evenwithfuelstandardsenacted,significantoil
savingsdonotstartfor15years!25
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PETROLEUMSAVINGS,20142030
By2030,totalU.S.OilConsumptionreducedby~2% 4%
By2030,regssaving~3%ofU.S.oil toolittle,toolate?26
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CUMULATIVEPETROLEUMSAVINGS,20142030
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IMPLICATIONS
Train has left the station: Regs in 10 months!
Regs are gift that keeps on giving
International implications Be informed read NAS report
Are regs necessary?
Regs may be effective But may not be cost-effective
Are there better ways to save oil?
Regs: Little impact for next 2 decades No silver bullet, but helpful
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APPENDIX: NASCOMMITTEEMEMBERS
Dr. Andrew Brown, Jr.
Exec. Director & Chief Technologist
Delphi Corporation
Dr. Dennis AssanisProf. & Director, Auto Research Center
University of Michigan
Dr. Nigel Clark
Prof. & Director Center for Alternative Fuels,Engines & Emissions
West Virginia University
Duke Drinkard
VP, Maintenance (Ret.)
Southeastern Freight Lines
Lexington, SC 29073
Dr. Roger Fruechte
Director, Electrical & Controls Integration
LabGeneral Motors R&D (Ret.)
Dr. Roger Bezdek
President
Management Information Svcs.
Oakton, Virginia
Thomas Corsi
Director, Supply Chain Mgmt., Logistics,Business & Public Policies
University of Maryland
Dr. David Foster
Prof. & Director, Engine Research Center
University of Wisconsin
Dr. Ron Graves
Director, Fuels, Engines & EmissionsResearch Center
DOE/ORNL
Dr. John Johnson
Presidential ProfessorMichigan Tech University
Houghton, Michigan
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APPENDIX: NASCOMMITTEEMEMBERS
Drew KodjakExecutive DirectorInternational Council on Clean
TransportationWashington, DC
Tom ReinhartProgram Manager, Engine Design &Development
Southwest Research Institute
Dr. James WinebrakeChair, Dept. of Science, Technology &Public PolicyRochester Institute of Technology
Dr. Martin ZimmermanChief Economist & Group VPFord Motor Company
David MerrionExec. VP, Detroit Diesel (Ret.)Detroit, Michigan
Dr. Charles SalterExec. Director, Engine Development (Ret.)Mack Trucks / Volvo Powertrain
John WoodrooffeHead, Transportation Safety AnalysisUniversity of Michigan TransportationInstitute
Garrick Hu
VP, Global Engineering (Ret.)Arvin Meritor
Aymeric RousseauManager, Advanced Powertrain VehicleModeling Team
Argonne National Research Lab
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25 LARGEST PRIVATE FLEETS
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WHOTOREGULATE?
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Advantages&DisadvantagesofEachChoiceofRegulatedParty
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COMPLEXITY OF TOTAL SYSTEM
PERFORMANCE EVALUATION
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MEASURING FUEL CONSUMPTIONIN PAYLOAD TERMS
(gallons/ton-mile) Load Specific Fuel Consumption: (LSFC)= FC/Payload in
Tons
FC = Fuel Consumption on a given cycle, gallons/100 miles
Recommendation: Use LSFC as metric & be based onaverage payload derived from national data representative of
classes & vehicle duty cycles
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