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Australian International Education Conference
The Demography of International Education: Impacts on Australia
Bernard Salt
14 October 2009
© 2009 KPMG, an Australian partnership and a member firm of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International, a Swiss cooperative. All rights reserved. KPMG and the KPMG logo
are registered trademarks of KPMG International. Liability limited by a scheme approved under Professional Standards Legislation.
These slides are not for commercial use or redistribution. The information contained herein is of a general nature and is not intended to address the circumstances of any particular individual or entity. No oneshould act on such information without appropriate professional advice after a thorough examination of the particular situation. KPMG have indicated within this presentation the sources of the information provided.KPMG has not sought to independently verify those sources unless otherwise noted within the presentation. No reliance should be placed on additional oral remarks provided during the presentation, unless theseare confirmed in writing by KPMG. KPMG is under no obligation in any circumstance to update this presentation, in either oral or written form, for events occurring after the presentation has been issued in finalform. The findings in this presentation have been formed on the above basis. Forecasts are based on a number of assumptions and estimates and are subject to contingencies and uncertainties. Forecasts shouldnot be regarded as a representation or warranty by or on behalf of KPMG or any other person that such forecasts will be met. Forecasts constitute judgment and are subject to change without notice, as arestatements about market trends, which are based on current market conditions. Neither KPMG nor any member or employee of KPMG undertakes responsibility arising in any way from reliance placed by a thirdparty on this presentation. Any reliance placed is that party’s sole responsibility. The presentation (and the accompanying slide pack) is provided solely for the benefit of the conference attendees and is not to becopied, quoted or referred to in whole or in part without KPMG’s prior written consent. KPMG accepts no responsibility to anyone other than the conference attendees for the information contained in thispresentation.
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© 2009 KPMG, an Australian partnership and a member firm of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International, a Swiss cooperative. All rights reserved. KPMG and the KPMG logo
are registered trademarks of KPMG International. Liability limited by a scheme approved under Professional Standards Legislation.
© 2009 KPMG, an Australian partnership and a member firm of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International, a Swiss cooperative. All rights reserved. KPMG and the KPMG logo
are registered trademarks of KPMG International. Liability limited by a scheme approved under Professional Standards Legislation.
Australian International Education Conference 2009 www.aiec.idp.com
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© 2009 KPMG, an Australian partnership and a member firm of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International, a Swiss cooperative. All rights reserved. KPMG and the KPMG logo
are registered trademarks of KPMG International. Liability limited by a scheme approved under Professional Standards Legislation.
© 2009 KPMG, an Australian partnership and a member firm of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International, a Swiss cooperative. All rights reserved. KPMG and the KPMG logo
are registered trademarks of KPMG International. Liability limited by a scheme approved under Professional Standards Legislation.
Australian International Education Conference 2009 www.aiec.idp.com
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© 2009 KPMG, an Australian partnership and a member firm of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International, a Swiss cooperative. All rights reserved. KPMG and the KPMG logo
are registered trademarks of KPMG International. Liability limited by a scheme approved under Professional Standards Legislation.
Australia is growing faster than at any time in
our history … students are a driver of growth
Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics; KPMG
• Components of annual population change in Australia between 1982
and 2009
Decline Recovery
1989 2005 20091982
BoomBoom
1994
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Natural increase Net migration Net growth
540,000
44,000 extra
students
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are registered trademarks of KPMG International. Liability limited by a scheme approved under Professional Standards Legislation.
Australians are on the move … to the coast
Losers
Winners
Areas of high
population growth
(>2% pa) and loss
(<1% pa) between
1986 and 2008
Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics; KPMG
Townsville
Gladstone
Hervey BaySunshine Coast
Gold Coast
Coffs Harbour
Port Macquarie
Port Stephens
Narooma
Surf CoastSorell
Victor Harbor
Augusta-
Margaret
River
Busselton
Broome
Palmerston
Mackay
Cairns-Port Douglas
Bundaberg
Byron Bay
Denmark
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Australia is shifting its ethnic base from Anglo
and Mediterranean to Asian influences
Growing
Extra 2006
1. China 64,324 206,589
2. India 52,034 147,105
3. New Zealand 37,616 389,466
4. South Africa 25,180 104,131
5. Philippines 17,012 120,541
• Most growth and loss by place of birth in Australia, 2001-2006Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics; KPMG
Some students
converting to
residents
Contracting
Loss 2006
1. Italy -18,867 199,123
2. Greece -6,152 109,989
3. Poland -5,616 52,256
4. Netherlands -3,571 78,923
5. Malta -3,143 43,701
Old Italians
and Greeks
dying off
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are registered trademarks of KPMG International. Liability limited by a scheme approved under Professional Standards Legislation.
Education will crystallise around „surge points‟
in the Australian demographic profile
Source: ABS Historical Population Statistics, 2006, Department of Health and Ageing Population Projections, 2007; KPMG
• Net change in Australian population by 5-year age group over 10 years
to 2007 and 10 years to 2017
Mature adults
• Support for students
• Re-training
• Upskilling
• KIPPERS
Absolute Growth 1997-07 Absolute Growth 2007-17-100,000
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
0-4 5-9 10-14 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75-79 80-84 85+
Young adults
• Overseas workers
• Overseas students
• Household formation
• „Little Emperor‟ syndrome
Retirees
• U3A
• Return to Uni
• Education for interest
Kids
• Pre-school
• Early primary
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are registered trademarks of KPMG International. Liability limited by a scheme approved under Professional Standards Legislation.
Most growth in VET sector … total
commencements expanding by 22,000 per year
2002 2009 Growth
Higher Education 51,700 85,100 33,400
VET 21,600 97,000 75,400
ELICOS 25,400 64,400 39,000
Schools 21,600 26,500 5,500
Other 17,400 22,400 5,000
Total 126,200 280,700 154,500
Source: AIE;DEEWR; KPMG
• Most growth in VET, up 75,400
• ELICOS also a major growth area, up 39,000
• Uni students up 33,400
• 2009 commencements of 281,000, up 44,000 over previous 12 months
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are registered trademarks of KPMG International. Liability limited by a scheme approved under Professional Standards Legislation.
China and India have been the fastest growing
markets for international students
Growth Commencements
2002-2009 2009
1. India 48,000 52,000
2. China 44,000 68,000
3. Nepal 10,000 10,000
4. South Korea 10,000 11,000
5. Saudi Arabia 6,000 6,000
6. Brazil 6,000 8,000
7. Thailand 4,000 11,000
8. Colombia 3,000 5,000
9. Pakistan 3,000 3,000
10. Sri Lanka 2,000 3,000
Source: AIE;DEEWR; KPMG
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Inner Sydney and Melbourne have attracted
around 65,000 new residents over 10 years
• Population June 2008 was 259,000
up 68,000 over 10 years and 6,000
over 12 months
Melbourne
Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics; KPMG
• Population June 2008 was 338,000
up 61,000 over 10 years and 3,000
over 12 months
Sydney
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are registered trademarks of KPMG International. Liability limited by a scheme approved under Professional Standards Legislation.
The densest part of Melbourne is an
international student stronghold
9,500 per sq km
Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics; KPMG
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10/21/2009
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are registered trademarks of KPMG International. Liability limited by a scheme approved under Professional Standards Legislation.
0 9010 20 30 40 50 60 70 80
Source: United Nations Statistics Division; KPMG
Changes to life expectancy has created new
market segments and lifestyle behaviours
Child Adolescence Lifestyle OldRetired
200982
Adult
Child Teen OldAdult1969 71
Child Adult Old
1929 63
• Change in life expectancy over 80 years in Australia
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1950 20502009
Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics; KPMG
Boomer Gen X Gen Y
200,000
There is a „demographic fault line‟ running
through the Australian workforce
• Net growth in working age population (15-64) over 100 years in
Australia based on 2004 and 2008 outlook
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Historical 2004 forecast 2008 forecast
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10/21/2009
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are registered trademarks of KPMG International. Liability limited by a scheme approved under Professional Standards Legislation.
Source Statistics Bureau of Japan; KPMG
Japan‟s demographic fault line means reduced
consumer spending in traditional markets
1.5 million
1994 contraction
• Net change in working age population (15-64) over 100 years in
Japan based on 2007 outlook
-1,500,000
-1,000,000
-500,000
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Historical Forecast
1950 20502009
Boomer Gen X Gen Y
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Consumer demand in China will be supported
by further rural to urban migration
Source: United Nations Statistics Division; KPMG
• Net change in working age population (15-64) over 100 years in
China based on 2007 outlook
15 million
2016 contraction
-10,000,000
-5,000,000
0
5,000,000
10,000,000
15,000,000
20,000,000
1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Historical Forecast
1950 20502009
Boomer Gen X Gen Y
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are registered trademarks of KPMG International. Liability limited by a scheme approved under Professional Standards Legislation.
The middle-class-isation of India will continue
… good opportunities for long-term growth
14 million
• Net growth in working age population (15-64) over 100 years in India
based on 2007 outlook
0
2,000,000
4,000,000
6,000,000
8,000,000
10,000,000
12,000,000
14,000,000
16,000,000
1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Historical Forecast
Source: United Nations Statistics Division; KPMG
1950 20502009
Boomer Gen X Gen Y
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are registered trademarks of KPMG International. Liability limited by a scheme approved under Professional Standards Legislation.
2006 Change 2001-2006
No. %
General Clerk 205,500 35,800 21%
Commercial Cleaner 112,600 32,300 40%
Aged or Disabled Person Carer 77,300 25,600 49%
Registered Nurse 163,100 20,900 15%
Heavy Truck Driver 124,500 19,800 19%
Project & Program Administrator 110,400 19,500 21%
Storeperson 139,700 19,300 16%
Child Care Worker 63,300 18,200 40%
Food & Drink Sales Assistant 182,100 17,100 10%
Personal/Household Sales Assistant 150,300 17,000 13%
Australia 9,104,200 805,500 10%
Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics; KPMG
• Top ten occupations by absolute job growth over 5 years to 2006 in
Australia … total 1,300 occupations
Driving, storing, cleaning, caring and selling
are jobs on the rise … each requiring skills
Australian International Education Conference 2009 www.aiec.idp.com
10/21/2009
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are registered trademarks of KPMG International. Liability limited by a scheme approved under Professional Standards Legislation.
2006 Change 2001-2006
No. %
Secretary 94,400 -39,800 -30%
Fruit, Vegetable or Nut Farm Hand 20,200 -6,400 -24%
Dairy Farmer 16,100 -5,400 -25%
Sales and Marketing Manager 89,000 -5,300 -6%
General Farm Hand 24,100 -5,200 -18%
Sewing Machinist 13,100 -5,100 -28%
Electronic Engineering Technician 5,300 -4,500 -46%
Packager and Container Filler 6,400 -4,000 -38%
Domestic Cleaner 16,200 -3,900 -19%
Transport Company Manager 11,600 -3,600 -24%
Australia 9,104,200 805,500 10%
Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics; KPMG
Technology and policy shifts diminish other
jobs which prompts reskilling
• Top ten occupations by absolute job loss over 5 years to 2006 in Australia
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are registered trademarks of KPMG International. Liability limited by a scheme approved under Professional Standards Legislation.
Why are heavy truck drivers leaving the
industry between the ages of 25 and 34?
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65 and over
2001 2006
• Age profile of heavy truck drivers between 2001 and 2006
Losing staff
Gaining staff
34% of heavy
truck drivers
are aged 50+
2001: 104,730
2006: 124,518
Diff: 19,788 or 19%
Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics; KPMG
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It‟s easier to hold onto old nurses than it is to
recruit and retain young nurses
2001 2006
• Age profile of registered nurses between 2001 and 2006
2001: 142,202
2006: 163,083
Diff: 20,881 or 15%
Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics; KPMG
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65 and over
31% of registered
nurses are aged
50+
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are registered trademarks of KPMG International. Liability limited by a scheme approved under Professional Standards Legislation.
„Religious minister‟ shrinkage …
2001 2006
Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics; KPMG
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65 and over
2001: 14,238
2006: 14,778
Diff: 540 or 4%
• Age profile of ministers of religion between 2001 and 2006
Teenage
Ministers of
Religion from
the Church of
Like Whatever
48% of ministers
of religion are
aged 50+
might prompt aspate of international vicar-nicking
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10/21/2009
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are registered trademarks of KPMG International. Liability limited by a scheme approved under Professional Standards Legislation.
Generation Y set to transition into household
formation next decade
• Baby boomers - “There goes my early retirement”
- Boomers hadn’t saved enough before the crash
- No time to recover from GFC
- Returning to or engaging with the workplace
• Generation X - Wrong time to be 33-43
- Mortgage, kids & single income
- Unlucky generation … but sick of Gen Ys
- Moving into leadership roles
• Generation Y - Never experienced recession
- First time someone has said “no”
- Learn the lesson of the downturn
- See value in assets and commitment
• Generation Z - Prudent, connected, technophile
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are registered trademarks of KPMG International. Liability limited by a scheme approved under Professional Standards Legislation.
The Great Australasian Man Drought … Stage
3A restrictions now apply
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30 32 34 36 38 40 42 44 46 48 50 52 54 56 58 60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74
Australia New Zealand
35
Man Drought
Boy Town
Widow
World
27
35
58 65
Man Mountain
• Percentage difference in the number of men and women in Australia
and New Zealand by individual year in 2006
Mo
re m
en
Mo
re w
om
en
Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics; Statistics New Zealand; KPMG
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10/21/2009
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© 2009 KPMG, an Australian partnership and a member firm of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International, a Swiss cooperative. All rights reserved. KPMG and the KPMG logo
are registered trademarks of KPMG International. Liability limited by a scheme approved under Professional Standards Legislation.
Contact
Bernard Salt
KPMG Australia
+61 3 9288 5047
www.bernardsalt.com.au
twitter.com/bernardsalt
linkedin.com/in/bernardsalt
© 2009 KPMG, an Australian partnership and a member firm of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International, a Swiss cooperative. All rights reserved. KPMG and the KPMG logo
are registered trademarks of KPMG International. Liability limited by a scheme approved under Professional Standards Legislation.
Education services required on the urban
fringe and in seachange communities
1. Brisbane 17,368
2. Gold Coast 13,210
3. Moreton Bay 11,831
4. Wyndham 8,874
5. Sunshine Coast 8,734
6. Wanneroo 8,552
7. Casey 8,014
8. Ipswich 6,104
9. Melton 6,016
10. Cairns 5,985
Total Australia 354,507
• Top 10 growth areas in Australia over 12 months to June 2008
The new
“Western Front”
Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics; KPMG
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10/21/2009
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are registered trademarks of KPMG International. Liability limited by a scheme approved under Professional Standards Legislation.
„Fear‟ drives community behaviour and values
during a downturn
Then 1997 - 2008
• Era of high consumerism … and
of „corporate high-flyers‟
• „Live for the moment‟ … pay in the
future
• Plasma TVs, McMansions, Manolo
Blahnik shoes
• Easy credit … rising house prices
• Celebration of the individual …
confidence in the future and in
ourselves
Recession
Consumers driven by
“Aspirationalism”
• Rise of the moral consumer … the
new Wowserism
• Anti-drinking, smoking, speeding,
gambling, junk-food (obesity) …
concern about corporate excess
• Rise of Green, ethical & traditional
values: celebrities & LG
• Fear drives a retreat to the security
of the herd, the tribe, the family,
familiar brands?
Now 2009+
Consumers driven by a
“New Morality”
Australian International Education Conference 2009 www.aiec.idp.com