Author: Adam Burke
The 2018 MLB Betting Guide is a comprehensive preseason preview for the upcoming
baseball season, complete with season win total previews for all 30 teams, division,
pennant, and World Series futures predictions to help you bang the books this summer
and beyond.
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TABLE OF CONTENTS Introduction…...…………………………….…………………………………………….3
Glossary of Statistics………………………………………………………………….......5
Division Futures..................................................................................................................9
AL Pennant Futures...........................................................................................................11
NL Pennant Futures...........................................................................................................14
World Series Futures..........................................................................................................16
Home Run King Futures....................................................................................................18
Baltimore Orioles...............................................................................................................21
Boston Red Sox ................................................................................................................28
New York Yankees............................................................................................................35
Tampa Bay Rays................................................................................................................43
Toronto Blue Jays..............................................................................................................50
Chicago White Sox............................................................................................................57
Cleveland Indians...............................................................................................................64
Detroit Tigers.....................................................................................................................74
Kansas City Royals............................................................................................................81
Minnesota Twins................................................................................................................87
Houston Astros..................................................................................................................94
Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim.....................................................................................101
Oakland Athletics............................................................................................................107
Seattle Mariners...............................................................................................................114
Texas Rangers..................................................................................................................120
Atlanta Braves..................................................................................................................126
Miami Marlins.................................................................................................................133
New York Mets................................................................................................................139
Philadelphia Phillies.........................................................................................................146
Washington Nationals......................................................................................................153
Chicago Cubs...................................................................................................................160
Cincinnati Reds................................................................................................................167
Milwaukee Brewers.........................................................................................................174
Pittsburgh Pirates.............................................................................................................182
St. Louis Cardinals...........................................................................................................188
Arizona Diamondbacks...................................................................................................195
Colorado Rockies............................................................................................................202
Los Angeles Dodgers......................................................................................................209
San Diego Padres.............................................................................................................215
San Francisco Giants........................................................................................................222
Thanks and Acknowledgements......................................................................................228
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An Introduction to the 2018 MLB Betting Guide
For four years, I have put together what I believe are the most comprehensive MLB team
previews in the industry. I’ve called these previews my “labor of love”. I’ve compared
the word counts with those of famous novels and my collective previews have been
longer than works like The Catcher in the Rye, Harry Potter and the Chamber of Secrets,
1984, The Hobbit, and To Kill A Mockingbird.
Suffice it to say that I do a lot of research and look at a lot of different factors when it
comes to the season. It helps me to organize my thoughts for the season and also helps
the readers gain a wealth of knowledge and a few different ways of looking at the teams,
the players, and the betting market.
In looking back at the number of words and in thinking about the most reader-friendly
ways of getting these to those that are interested in playing season win totals and betting
the 2018 season, my boss and I decided that posting them at BangTheBook.com and
formatting these into an e-book would be the best course of action.
It is also important to realize that I make a pick on every team, but not all of them are
strong opinions. I will let you know when I have a strong opinion. Those have done well
and those are the ones that matter the most from a wins and losses standpoint. It is also
important to note that season win total odds are fluid and do change based on betting
action, so the odds quoted in here were current at the time the previews were posted at
BangTheBook.com.
Baseball betting is a real, honest-to-goodness grind. Each team is scheduled to play 162
games over about six months. It is a money line sport, which presents some challenges
for those that bet on games. Unlike a spread, which generally has juice ranging from
+100 to -120, baseball often has lines that are -200 or higher and +200 or higher. It can
be overwhelming for novice handicappers or those with limited bankrolls to see these
types of prices.
I like to believe that my analysis of Major League Baseball is well-rounded, as I try to
take a lot of factors into account, but the core of my analysis is based in statistics. There
will be a lot of sabermetric concepts in my writing that may be new to some readers.
Those have been with me from the start, have read my daily MLB work at
BangTheBook, or have listened to The Bettor’s Box, my MLB betting podcast, have been
exposed to these advanced metrics and the value that they provide. For some of you,
these will be new concepts and may be a little bit overwhelming at first.
By no means do I intend to sound conceited here, but I feel as though I have taken it upon
myself with this platform that I have to explain these advanced statistics and convey their
importance in a way that is easy to understand. Within this e-book, and also posted at
BangTheBook, you will find a glossary that defines and describes many of the stats that I
use in my analysis. Others will be explained within the win totals previews themselves.
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Before you read on, I want to make something clear about sabermetrics. They are a way
to quantify what your eyes can see. Just about every baseball fan can see that Player X is
a bad outfielder. How bad is he? That is the purpose of sabermetrics. Traditional statistics
like errors and fielding percentage only matter if Player X gets to the ball and can make a
play. Sabermetrics will tell you what percentage of outfielders do make that play and just
how far behind them Player X actually is.
Walks don’t count the same as home runs. To on-base percentage, they are one and the
same. Singles and doubles are not the same. To batting average, they are. These advanced
metrics paint a more comprehensive picture of player value and the values of certain
outcomes. To me, they provide far more perspective and analysis, so I choose to use
them. You may not want to and that is up to you, but I would encourage you to broaden
your horizons and at least understand where the numbers are coming from and how they
can be more effective than traditional stats.
Finally, I want to thank each and every one of my readers. While these don’t take as
much time to read as they do to write, these are not your run-of-the-mill articles and I
understand that. I’ve tried to be as concise as possible while still giving as much
information as possible and a balance between the two is not easy to achieve.
Best of luck to all of us this baseball betting season!
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A Glossary of the Stats and Concepts Found in this Guide
The world of sports betting requires handicappers to constantly adapt and evaluate.
Things that worked 10 years ago don’t work as well today. Things that worked five years
ago don’t work as well today. There are some concepts and philosophies that will always
work, but have also been accounted for by the oddsmakers and by other bettors that
probably get to the market faster.
Fortunately, we live in an era when there is a lot of new data and people are coming up
with new ways of breaking down the games and the players that play them. It creates so
many opportunities for fans and bettors to look through different lenses in order to see
things with a unique perspective.
When it comes to baseball, specifically, that perspective for me comes in the form of
sabermetrics. Over a decade ago, I wanted to know how my favorite team, the Cleveland
Indians, makes decisions and values players. So, I researched. And I studied. I won’t say
that I was early to the party, but I certainly didn’t arrive all that late. It is something that
has been a huge part of my fandom and my handicapping ever since.
There continues to be a pretty sharp divide between old school and new school when it
comes to player evaluation. A lot of fans cling to stats like batting average and RBI,
while others proselytize about wRC+ and wOBA. While I certainly believe in the
advanced metrics far more than the traditional ones, I hate the holier-than-thou attitude
some in the stats community have. The best way to induce change and induce a new way
of thinking is to reach common ground. I feel like that is part of my skill set when it
comes to talking about baseball and I’ll try to do that today with some of the stats that I
will reference heavily in my MLB season win totals.
First, we’ll start with some team-oriented metrics:
Pythagorean Win-Loss – Most people don’t care about what should have happened.
They only care about what actually happened. Pythagorean Win-Loss records can be a
good barometer for teams in line for regression. It is a standings metric based on run
differential. Teams that excelled in one-run games may regress the following season.
Similarly, teams that got blown out a lot should have better personnel the next year.
As an aside, one-run games are a big deal when it comes to Pyth W-L. Generally, teams
are within a couple of games above or below .500 in one-run games. Significant outliers
are likely to regress the following season.
BaseRuns – I like to refer to the BaseRuns standings from Fangraphs as well. BaseRuns
takes all of a team’s outcomes for and against and removes the context. Think of it like
this: If a team goes HR, 1B, 1B, K, K, K, that team scores one run that innings. If a team
goes 1B, 1B, HR, K, K, K, that team scores three runs that inning. The same six
individual outcomes produced two very different outcomes overall. BaseRuns eliminates
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that element of randomness and spits out a measure of runs per game and runs allowed
per game given all of the individual outcomes. Then, it produces a win-loss record.
Now, some individual stats for hitters and pitchers:
wOBA – wOBA is my favorite statistic of all. It stands for Weighted On-Base Average.
Unlike its predecessor, on-base percentage, wOBA assigns a weighted value to each way
of reaching base. When it comes to on-base percentage, there is no distinction between a
single or a home run. wOBA has changed that. The weights of the outcomes are assigned
based on the offensive climate around Major League Baseball. For example, the weight
of a home run was 1.98 runs, the lowest mark since 2007. Walks, however, were the
highest since 2011 at .693 runs.
Quite simply, wOBA actually distinguishes between the value of ways of getting on base,
thus making it better than most every other offensive metric.
wRC+ - Weighted Runs Created Plus is another popular statistic. The + simply means
relative to league average, wherein league average is 100. A player with a 110 wRC+ was
10 percent better than league average when adjustments are made for park factors and the
current run environment. Now that we’re in the Juiced Ball Era, or so they say, the run
environment is higher, so the baseline is higher. Not that it’s relevant to my win totals or
overall handicapping, but you can use wRC+ to compare hitters from previous eras
because the stat is adjusted for park factors, leagues, and run environments.
K% & BB% - These seem pretty obvious, but are worth mentioning. These are
(Strikeouts / Plate Appearances) and (Walks / Plate Appearances). Those are important
stats for hitters, but I will use them more frequently with pitchers.
BABIP – BABIP stands for Batting Average on Balls in Play. Keep in mind that
traditional batting average factors strikeouts into the equation because those are at bats.
BABIP is a good measure of luck. Hitters with a high BABIP are either making terrific
contact, are fast, or are getting lucky. Hitters with a low BABIP either have poor contact
quality or are getting unlucky. The same can be said about pitchers in terms of contact
quality and luck. Home runs are NOT factored into BABIP because they are not balls in
play. Traditionally, the “average” range for BABIP is between .290 and .310, but extreme
fly ball pitchers and hitters need to be graded accordingly. Last year, the league average
BABIP for hitters was exactly .300.
FIP – I hate ERA. It is such a tremendously flawed statistic. Let’s remember that a
pitcher that allows three runs over six innings has a 4.50 ERA, which is widely
considered to be bad, but it is a “quality start”. FIP is a better metric and one that I use
often. FIP stands for Fielding Independent Pitching. It is a run metric derived from things
that a pitcher can “control” – strikeouts, walks, home runs, and hit by pitches.
It takes the defense out of the equation. Bad defenders can really hurt a pitcher’s ERA by
not catching balls that should be caught. FIP takes that element out of the equation. Once
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the ball leaves the pitcher’s hand, he has no control over what happens. It is all subject to
variance, especially once it is put in play. This is a far better way to assess a pitcher’s
performance.
xFIP – A derivative of FIP is xFIP, which stands for eXpected Fielding Independent
Pitching. The difference between FIP and xFIP is that it recalculates the home run portion
of FIP by assuming a league average home run to fly ball rate. Last season, obviously, we
had a significant number of home runs hit. The HR/FB% league-wide rose from 12.8
percent to 13.7 percent. It was just 11.4 percent in 2015. The relevance of that will
become clearer as we move forward.
The important takeaway here is that we can use xFIP in a similar context to BABIP.
Sometimes pitchers are getting unlucky with fly balls that hit a jet stream or just keep
carrying. Other times, they are simply making bad pitches. Like any statistic, we have to
dig deeper to find out the root cause, but xFIP is a good predictor of future performance.
It eliminates some of the noise of small sample sizes.
Pitchers with high ERAs that have lower FIP and xFIP marks are generally pitchers to
circle for positive regression. Pitchers with low ERAs that have higher FIP and xFIP
marks are likely to regress negatively. There are always outliers, and I’ll discuss them in
the season previews and on a day-to-day basis, but keep that in mind.
DRS – DRS stands for Defensive Runs Saved. One of the last great frontiers to explore
for baseball stat geeks like me is defense. Errors are a poor stat. They only count if the
fielder gets to the ball and are based on subjective discretion by the official scorer.
Because fielding percentage uses errors, it is also a poor measure of defensive ability.
DRS is somewhat complex. Players are graded on a plus/minus scale, where zero is
average. It is measured on location of a batted ball, type of batted ball, and a general
description of the speed of the ball. All of these plays are catalogued and a baseline is set.
If a ball has a 70 percent catch probability and the fielder fails to make the play, that
accounts for -0.7 defensive runs saved. If that play is made, the fielder gets +0.3
defensive runs saved.
Now that we have Statcast data, we’re getting a much clearer picture of defensive metrics
based on Catch Probability, Sprint Speed, and a variety of other metrics. Fans and writers
have merely the tip of the iceberg when it comes to Statcast data, but it is very important.
Statcast – Statcast is remarkable. Those that really want to go down a rabbit hole of
baseball statistics are going to fall in love with the data. It is something that I have
studied a lot more and will be using more this season.
Here are some of the Statcast metrics I’ll be using:
Exit Velocity –We think of pitchers with high BABIPs as “unlucky”. We think of
pitchers with high ERAs and low FIP and xFIP marks as “unlucky”. Well, now that we
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have exit velocities to factor in, we can see if pitchers are simply getting hit really hard.
Balls that are hit harder are more likely to go for doubles, triples, and home runs and are
also likely to be tougher plays for fielders to make.
xwOBA – wOBA – Statcast does its calculation based on batted ball distance, launch
angle, and exit velocity. Using that data, it can estimate hit probabilities, including
whether or not balls should be home runs, doubles, singles, etc. xwOBA stands for
eXpected wOBA. xwOBA – wOBA is a good indication of pitcher luck. This is a stat I
will be utilizing a lot more this season. It is a measure of the gap between a pitcher’s
expected wOBA and actual wOBA against. It can work for hitters as well and will be
something I utilize in my DFS pieces.
xBA – BA – This is a similar stat. This is eXpected Batting Average minus actual batting
average. Pretty simple and straightforward.
As far as my MLB analysis goes, these will be the most popular terms and statistics, so I
certainly encourage readers to familiarize themselves with these concepts. I will also use
additional PITCHf/x and Statcast data.
I would encourage readers to check out more detailed definitions at Fangraphs with the
Offensive Stats and the Pitching Stats.
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Division Futures
Now is not the time to be betting Major League Baseball division futures for the most
part. As we head into the 2018 season, four of the six divisions are all but decided. Sports
betting is like investing in any other market. Sometimes there are opportunities to buy
and sell and other times those opportunities just aren’t there and you have to hold off.
When it comes to betting the divisions, that is pretty much the case.
But, for those are that are looking for value or are looking to hold some long-term
investments, there may be something for you as we break down the divisions for 2018
with odds from BetOnline Sportsbook as of March 6:
AL East
Baltimore +1600
Boston +165
New York +100
Tampa Bay +1400
Toronto +800
The Yankees should win this division, but the Red Sox are the reigning champs. Nobody
else really has a chance to win the AL East, so it is either Yankees, Red Sox, or bust.
Holding an even money bet for about six months is a tough pill to swallow, but New
York is the favorite here for a reason and should win this division based on what returns
and what was acquired over the winter.
AL Central
Chicago +3300
Cleveland -500
Detroit +3300
Kansas City +1000
Minnesota +650
The Twins are the only team with any kind of shot to unseat the Indians as the AL
Central champs, but it is a pretty small shot and not worth the +650 price. The only play
here is to hold the Indians at 5x to win 1x, but you might have a chance to get this at a
better number as the season goes along if the Indians struggle out of the gate again. The -
500 line implies about an 83.33 percent probability the Indians win the division. That
looks low to me, so there is value, but holding that bet is a challenge.
AL West
Houston -260
Los Angeles +500
Oakland +2000
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Seattle +800
Texas +1600
The Astros are heavy chalk to win this division and they are the most complete team in
baseball. A -260 price implies a 72.22 percent likelihood that Houston wins the division.
Like the Indians, I believe this price is a bit low. I’d say Houston is more like 80 percent
to win the league, with the Angels in need of a lot of good fortune with the health of their
pitchers. The Astros are a good bet if you can stomach tying up those funds until
September.
NL East
Atlanta +1400
Miami +5000
New York +300
Philadelphia +1000
Washington -250
The Nationals should win this division, but the other three teams (Miami barely exists)
are getting better. The Mets probably need a year of being healthy on the pitching side
before they are a factor. The Phillies would be an interesting long shot at 10/1 if they
added some more starting pitching, but there really isn’t much value to go around in this
division.
NL Central
Chicago -220
Cincinnati +2000
Milwaukee +500
Pittsburgh +2000
St. Louis +500
This is the first division in which we see some value. The Cardinals at +500 are a very
intriguing price. The Cubs don’t seem to be as good on paper as they have been in past
seasons and the Cardinals did make some good additions over the winter. With young
pitching graduating to the big leagues and a really strong group of position players, the
+500 price is worth a bet. With the option to play .2 units to win a full unit or a half-unit
to win 2.5 units, this is a good position to hold over the warmer months.
NL West
Arizona +650
Colorado +700
Los Angeles -225
San Diego +2000
San Francisco +700
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This is another division in which there is some value on the second favorite. Arizona’s
pitching staff was exceptional last season and will get another boost thanks to the
humidor that has been installed at Chase Field. Arizona also has 81 games to get used to
the new conditions, while visiting teams will play no more than 10 games in the new
atmosphere. The Dodgers are a little bit thinner from a pitching standpoint and are also
coming off of a deep postseason run. The World Series hangover is typically more of a
thing for the winner, but for the Dodgers and their starting staff full of injury concerns, it
is a real consideration.
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American League Pennant Futures
With so many teams in various states of a rebuild across Major League Baseball, there
aren’t a whole lot of fan bases with delusions of grandeur about October baseball. The
league is extremely top-heavy right now, with four of the six divisions pretty much
decided before the season even begins and with some very high season win totals for the
league’s absolute best.
That can be frustrating for futures bettors that are seeking out value in the race for the
American League Pennant. The three projected division winners and the next best team
are all priced at +400 or less per the oddsmakers at BetOnline Sportsbook, so you’ll be
holding money for a while for what could be some very meager gains, especially when
considering the hedging required for the ALDS and the ALCS.
But, for those that like to hold some long-term investments, there are a few options out
there in the market. Here are the odds for the AL Pennant from BetOnline as of March 7:
Baltimore Orioles +3300
Boston Red Sox +500
Chicago White Sox +5000
Cleveland Indians +400
Detroit Tigers +12500
Houston Astros +300
Kansas City Royals +5000
Los Angeles Angels +1000
Minnesota Twins +2500
New York Yankees +275
Oakland Athletics +5000
Seattle Mariners +1600
Tampa Bay Rays +3300
Texas Rangers +3300
Toronto Blue Jays +1600
If you’re in search of some sort of baseball epiphany with these odds, you’re probably not
going to find it. In fact, let’s be completely honest, the best bet on the board is the
favorite. The New York Yankees are +275. Not only do they have the potential to be a
series favorite in both the ALDS and the ALCS (and especially the Wild Card, if it comes
to that), but this is quite possibly the best bullpen ever constructed. We know that
managers definitely have a shorter leash for their starters in the postseason and the
Yankees have the deepest and most talented bullpen in baseball. It is not particularly easy
to hold a seven-month investment on a +275 price, but value is value wherever you can
find it. Even with this inflated price thanks to last year’s run and the acquisition of
Giancarlo Stanton, nobody in baseball stacks up well against this bullpen. With the
manner in which innings are leveraged in October, the Yankees clearly have the upper
hand over everybody else. Assuming Aaron Boone knows what he’s doing.
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The Indians have a bit of value at +400, since they have two premier relievers in Cody
Allen and Andrew Miller and a three-headed rotation in Corey Kluber, Carlos Carrasco,
and Trevor Bauer that can give the team some innings in the playoffs. The offense is
really good and Cleveland has a farm system full of average to above average prospects
that may be utilized at the Trade Deadline to acquire some assistance.
The Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim are a decent medium shot at 10/1. The Angels have
a good chance of being the second Wild Card. They would likely have to play on the road
in either Boston or New York, but one-game sample sizes are highly volatile. At 10/1,
you’d also have an easy hedge in that Wild Card Game to play the favorite at whatever
price comes out for a couple of units. Let’s say you bet .5 units on Anaheim to win 5
units. In the Wild Card Game, we’ll just throw out a random number of -185, which
seems relatively fair, depending on the pitching matchup. You can bet 1.85 units to win 1
unit, which gives you a profit of .5 units if the Angels lose. If the Angels win, you’ll be
invested for 2.05 units to win 5 units and will have to decide accordingly in the next
round. These modest gains may not seem like much, but the goal in any futures bet is to
secure some sort of profit.
If you want a longer shot, Toronto strikes me as a team that could be good enough to
sneak into that second Wild Card spot as well. The same concept applies at 16/1 with the
Blue Jays. If they can get into that one-game playoff, you’ll have an easy hedging
opportunity there, with the potential to keep going with hedges in the ALDS. Again, the
goal of a futures investment is to guarantee profit. It won’t always be the 16/1 profit that
you envision, but this is a key element of bankroll management that means so much.
The only “long” shot worthy of consideration seems to be Minnesota at +2500, especially
with the Twins in that situation last year of the one-game playoff. With three dregs below
the Twins in the AL Central, they can bank wins against the Royals, White Sox, and
Tigers and that may be enough to vault the team into Wild Card contention. Also, if a
maelstrom of injuries hits the Indians, the Twins are the only other team capable of
winning the division.
Keep the end goal in mind with futures that it is all about guaranteeing profit.
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National League Pennant Futures
It is rather interesting that the oddsmakers seem to be giving the NL Central to the
Chicago Cubs, despite noteworthy improvements from the St. Louis Cardinals and the
Milwaukee Brewers. As a result, it has created some betting value in the National League
futures market, as we speculate about the team that could represent the Senior Circuit in
the World Series.
Like the American League, the National League is top-heavy, which is noted on the odds
board from BetOnline Sportsbook, but there seems to be a good amount of value here
because the potential Wild Card teams are all going off at double digits. The end goal of
every futures bet is to guarantee profit, so it doesn’t stop with this initial investment.
You’ll have to be ready to put some more out there in the month of October to secure
some hard-earned cash for your seven-month hold.
Here are the odds for the NL Pennant at BetOnline as of March 7:
Arizona Diamondbacks +1200
Atlanta Braves +5000
Chicago Cubs +400
Cincinnati Reds +5000
Colorado Rockies +1600
Los Angeles Dodgers +250
Miami Marlins +12500
Milwaukee Brewers +1400
New York Mets +1200
Philadelphia Phillies +2500
Pittsburgh Pirates +4000
San Diego Padres +5000
San Francisco Giants +1400
St. Louis Cardinals +1000
Washington Nationals +350
The first bet that jumps off the board to me is the Arizona Diamondbacks at +1200. The
Diamondbacks have one of the better pitching staffs in the National League and the
installation of a humidor at Chase Field is going to provide a nice home field advantage
boost for the Snakes. They’ve already had a good one, but adjustments will have to be
made to the different conditions and they have 81 games to do that. Visiting teams have
no more than 10. Furthermore, Arizona, who won the Wild Card Game last year, is in the
NL West, with a weaker Los Angeles Dodgers team and a San Francisco Giants team that
isn’t really a playoff contender in my mind, but the Giants do spread out the prices a little
bit. If the Giants hadn’t made some moves, we’d likely see Arizona +900 or +1000, much
like the St. Louis Cardinals.
Speaking of the Cardinals, there is some value in them at +1000. The Chicago Cubs do
not seem to be as strong on paper as they have been in recent years. While they are still
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the rightful favorite to win the division, the gap really isn’t as big as these odds and as the
division odds (Cardinals +500) would suggest. St. Louis is a strong defensive team with a
good offense and a good amount of starting pitching depth. They will be a dangerous
team if they can get into October baseball.
Because of the composition of the National League, there aren’t any long shot values. As
far as low prices go, the Washington Nationals are my preferred team at +350. They are
most likely to walk to a division title and that could bring home field advantage along
with it. Facing Max Scherzer and Stephen Strasburg for five of the seven games of a
series is not particularly fun and three of the five games in the NLDS won’t be a picnic
either. Washington’s long-suffering fan base knows better than to put money on this, but
for the rest of us who aren’t jaded by having lived it, the Nationals look to be a pretty
good grab in my estimation if you want something without as much risk as the two teams
mentioned above. After all, neither the Diamondbacks nor Cardinals may make it into the
postseason. It would be a major stunner to see the Nationals fall short.
Keep in mind that whatever position you decide to hold will need to be re-evaluated
throughout the season and once the playoffs start. Most sportsbooks will post updated
odds as the season goes along for a variety of different things, so you can add on at better
prices, buy off with other contenders, or take some of the chalky teams as a cheaper
hedge than what you would find for a series price in October.
The goal of every futures bet is to assure some kind of profit, so you can’t just pull a Ron
Popeil and set it and forget it with these bets. More often than not, your 12/1 or 10/1 isn’t
going to come in. You won’t turn 1x into 12x, but you can turn the profit potential of
your original bet into a few units of profit by hedging wisely and paying attention to the
markets.
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World Series Futures
For the first time in 50 years, all 30 MLB teams will start on the same day, which is
March 29. That means that we are about three weeks and a couple of days from the MLB
season at time of writing. I’ve speculated on some teams to buy based on some of the
transactions I was expecting, but now that the rosters are mostly what we can expect for
the start of the season, we can really buckle down and take a look at what we’ve got
going on.
I’ve talked about this before, but this is a good time to remind you that the best approach
to baseball futures is to bet the teams that can win the division. You’ll have an easy hedge
in the Wild Card Game, but you’ll also be forced to cut into your potential futures payout
because of a high-variance single game sample size. That’s not to say that five and seven-
game sample sizes aren’t high-variance, but anything can and will happen in one game.
It isn’t a bad approach to grab a 15/1 or higher future and then look to hedge in that Wild
Card Game with an opportunity, but some teams that have uphill climbs to win the
division are still at low futures prices. With the top-heavy nature of the league, futures
betting is tricky this season.
Let’s take a look at the odds from BetOnline Sportsbook as of March 6, 2018:
Arizona Diamondbacks +2800
Atlanta Braves +12500
Baltimore Orioles +10000
Boston Red Sox +1000
Chicago Cubs +800
Chicago White Sox +10000
Cincinnati Reds +20000
Cleveland Indians +800
Colorado Rockies +3300
Detroit Tigers +25000
Houston Astros +600
Kansas City Royals +10000
Los Angeles Angels +2000
Los Angeles Dodgers +600
Miami Marlins +25000
Milwaukee Brewers +2500
Minnesota Twins +4000
New York Mets +2500
New York Yankees +500
Oakland Athletics +12500
Philadelphia Phillies +6600
Pittsburgh Pirates +10000
San Diego Padres +10000
San Francisco Giants +2500
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Seattle Mariners +3300
St. Louis Cardinals +2000
Tampa Bay Rays +8000
Texas Rangers +6600
Toronto Blue Jays +4000
Washington Nationals +800
A lot of the usual suspects remain worthy of picks. The Indians will win the AL Central,
so they’ll be in the playoffs as an 8/1 ticket. The Nationals will win the NL East, so
they’ll also be in as an 8/1 ticket. Houston and the LA Dodgers have a little more
competition within the division, but they’re also likely to get in, but 6/1 on both of them
isn’t a great price. The AL East is a stay away, since Boston will likely be relegated to the
one-game playoff in the Wild Card and New York’s price is way too low.
Basically every futures price has changed since our last update, which you can read here.
Now that I’ve written my MLB season win total previews, there are a couple of teams I’ll
be looking to add to my futures portfolio, to go along with Cleveland, Washington, the
Angels, and Philadelphia.
Arizona Diamondbacks (+2800) – The humidor is going to do wonders for this pitching
staff, which was already quite good anyway. Robbie Ray and Patrick Corbin with better
home run rates are a real boost to the Diamondbacks. Arizona has also picked up guys
like Steven Souza Jr. and Jarrod Dyson to help out defensively, as they are fully aware of
the impacts that the humidor will have on offense. The offense wasn’t great last season,
but Paul Goldschmidt is still an elite hitter and Souza is a pretty good stick as well. The
Dodgers lost a little bit of depth, so don’t be shocked if Arizona makes this thing pretty
close in the NL West as well. If we can get lucky and get the Snakes in as a division
champion, the hedging possibilities will be there.
St. Louis Cardinals (+2000) – The Cubs should win the NL Central, but they feel more
vulnerable to me than they have in past years. The Cardinals have a lot of high-floor
talent and have some starting pitching help coming up through the minors in Alex Reyes
and Jack Flaherty. St. Louis is a very solid defensive team with a lot of average or better
offensive pieces in the everyday lineup. This price hasn’t really fluctuated much over the
offseason, but the additions of Marcell Ozuna and a lights-out reliever in Dominic Leone
are big in my estimation.
18
Home Run King Futures
There are a lot of different options when it comes to betting Major League Baseball
futures. A lot of virtual ink has been spilled on season win totals and traditional futures,
like the World Series champion or the division winners. You can also bet some individual
player things, like the regular season home run king.
Get ready for some gory math because we’re going to use a lot of data to come up with
some value picks. The new-age Bash Brothers in New York are the favorites in Giancarlo
Stanton and Aaron Judge at +375 and +650, respectively. While you can certainly play
on those two sluggers, isn’t it more fun to take some shots on some of the options with
bigger prices?
These odds are from BetOnline and there are a ton of names listed, so you’ll have to
scroll down a little ways, but every name is worth listing, even if some players have no
shot.
Giancarlo Stanton (NYY) +375
Aaron Judge (NYY) +650
Bryce Harper (WAS) +1400
JD Martinez (BOS) +2000
Manny Machado (BAL) +2000
Mike Trout (LAA) +2000
Cody Bellinger (LAD) +2000
Joey Gallo (TEX) +2000
Freddie Freeman (ATL) +2500
Kris Bryant (CUB) +2500
Nolan Arenado (COL) +2500
Paul Goldschmidt (AZ) +2500
Chris Davis (BAL) +2800
Josh Donaldson (TOR) +2800
Khris Davis (OAK) +2800
Miguel Sano (MIN) +2500
Nelson Cruz (SEA) +2800
Kyle Schwarber (CUB) +3300
Anthony Rizzo (CUB) +3300
Carlos Correa (HOU) +3300
Edwin Encarnacion (CLE) +3300
Mark Trumbo (BAL) +3300
George Springer (HOU) +4000
Rhys Hoskins (PHI) +1800
Joey Votto (CIN) +5000
Logan Morrison (MIN) +5000
Rafael Devers (BOS) +5000
Gary Sanchez (NYY) +6600
Adam Duvall (CIN) +6600
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Andrew McCutchen (SF) +10000
Eric Thames (MIL) +6600
Jose Abreu (CWS) +8000
Justin Smoak (TOR) +6600
Marcell Ozuna (STL) +6600
Miguel Cabrera (DET) +8000
Yoenis Cespedes (NYM) +6600
Brian Dozier (MIN) +10000
Charlie Blackmon (COL) +10000
Domingo Santana (MIL) +10000
Francisco Lindor (CLE) +10000
Jake Lamb (AZ) +10000
Jay Bruce (NYM) +10000
Jonathan Schoop (BAL) +6600
Jose Bautista (FA) +10000
Let’s start by eliminating names first. Left field is not a good hitting environment for
players in Cleveland or Boston with the high walls. The Green Monster is a well-known
oddity, but the 19-foot wall at Progressive Field suppresses power for right-handed
hitters, so Edwin Encarnacion and JD Martinez are out. Because Francisco Lindor will
take about one-third of his plate appearances right-handed, he is also out.
Arizona added a humidor, which means that Paul Goldschmidt and Jake Lamb are out
with the loss of a lot of power potential. Jose Bautista doesn’t have a job. Citi Field is not
great for offense, so Jay Bruce and Yoenis Cespedes are out. Andrew McCutchen goes
from one bad hitter’s park to another, so he is out. Miguel Cabrera plays in one of the
stingiest parks for power, so he is also out. Adam Duvall is part of a four-headed monster
in the Cincinnati outfield, so he probably won’t have the plate appearances.
Before we get into the really heavy math, let’s look at a simple formula. You cannot hit a
ground ball home run. Players that hit less than 39 percent fly balls likely won’t be able
to come close. Among the 30+ HR crowd last season and the names listed above, those
are: Charlie Blackmon, Marcell Ozuna, Joey Votto, Goldschmidt, Jose Abreu, Gary
Sanchez, Domingo Santana, and Jonathan Schoop.
Let’s add that gory math now. For that, we’ll use the Statcast data provided at Baseball
Savant. Power has a strong correlation with exit velocity. This makes a lot of sense. The
harder that a ball is hit, the farther that ball is going to go. Using 190 batted ball events as
our cutoff, let’s look at the players with the hardest exit velocities for fly balls and line
drives in 2017.
The top 10 in hardest exit velocities for fly balls and line drives were Judge, Stanton,
Gallo, Davis, Sano, Cruz, Zimmerman, Martinez, Donaldson, Bellinger.
You’ve certainly heard people talk about launch angles. It is really important for hitters to
have a high launch angle in order to hit a large number of home runs. Per research done
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by Andrew Perpetua at Fangraphs, 94 percent of home runs are hit at launch angles
between 20 and 40 degrees. That means that the higher the launch angle, the better off we
are going to be with this bet.
The top 10 in average launch angle last season (minimum 1,000 pitches) were Gallo,
Napoli, Carpenter, Duvall, Belt, Zunino, Frazier, Seager, Granderson, and Chapman. For
other notables from the listed players, if we up the list to minimum 2,000 pitches, Jay
Bruce was 15th, Kyle Schwarber was 17th, Mike Trout was 19th, Logan Morrison was
21st, Nolan Arenado was 22nd, Justin Smoak was 25th, Kris Bryant was 26th, Jose
Bautista was 27th, Edwin Encarnacion was 28th, Brian Dozier was 29th, and Cody
Bellinger was 30th.
Based on the data that I am looking at, my pick for the home run title would be Joey
Gallo at +2000. Gallo hit 41 HR in 532 plate appearances last season. He was fourth in
all of baseball, but had 120 fewer plate appearances than Khris Davis, who was third, 146
fewer than Judge, who was second, and 160 fewer than Stanton, who led the league. If we
extrapolate Gallo out to 674 plate appearances, which is an average of the three, Gallo
would have hit about 52 home runs. That would have tied Judge. It was also Gallo’s first
season in the Major Leagues and he improved his power production and line drive rates
in the second half.
Gallo plays in a good offensive park and led the league in average fly ball distance and
there is good value on this price at +2000.
Between Stanton and Judge, Judge has the highest average launch angle and exit velocity,
so he would get the nod at +650.
21
Baltimore Orioles
My fifth annual MLB Season Win Total Preview Series begins as it always does, with a
look at the Baltimore Orioles. For whatever reason, I prefer to group these by division
and always start alphabetically with the Orioles. As it turns out, Baltimore was a correct
pick for me, as the Orioles failed to be a .500 or better team and went 75-87 to go under
their line of 80.5 wins. The blueprint that had worked in the past for the O’s failed, as
their starting pitching was horrible, the bullpen regressed, and the idea of hitting for a lot
of power gained traction around the league.
The Orioles were actually a fairly significant overachiever per BaseRuns, a standings
metric based on removing context from all outcomes, both offensively and defensively.
Baltimore finished five games better with its actual record than BaseRuns mark of 70-92
and four games better than the Pythagorean Win-Loss mark of 71-91. All of that being
said, the Orioles completely tanked in September and October. This was a 68-66 team
through 134 games that finished 7-21 over its final 28 games. The full body of work
shouldn’t inspire a lot of confidence heading into 2018, but keep in mind that September
and October were a disaster. The Orioles were outscored 161-83 over the final 28 games.
There are your Pythagorean Win-Loss and BaseRuns gaps. Baltimore was -98 runs as a
team last season and 78 of that total came in the home stretch of the season.
I don’t like to dabble in the unquantifiable when it comes to baseball. Black and white are
my favorite colors. Leave the grey for the clouds in April and September. With that in
mind, it’s tough for me to figure out what Buck Showalter means to this team. He has
traditionally been an overachiever and a strong leverager (we’ll make up words because
there are going to be over 90,000 in this set of previews that are actual words) of
relievers. Last season marked the first time since Showalter’s first year in 2011 that the
O’s finished with a losing record. He’s had some talent, but he’s regularly been up
against it in the rough-and-tumble AL East. He’s one of the more valuable managers in
the AL, for whatever that’s worth.
The Orioles are in a tough spot. Their low OBP/high SLG offensive profile doesn’t mean
as much in the Juiced Ball Era. Their rotation is the stuff of Alfred Hitchcock films. The
bullpen has some damaged goods. The ceiling seems to be capped, so the question we
have to answer is, how low is the floor?
Season Win Total Odds (as of February 21):
5Dimes: 72.5 (-110/-110)
BetOnline: 73 (-110/-110)
Bovada: 73 (-115/-115)
Additions: Engelb Vielma, Colby Rasmus, Andrew Cashner, Nestor Cortes, Jose
Mesa, Andrew Susac, Martin Cervenka, Yojhan Quevedo, Jaycob Brugman,
Michael Kelly, Asher Wojciechowski, Eddie Gamboa, Christian Binford, Luis Lugo,
Pedro Araujo, Josh Edgin, Jhan Marinez, Joely Rodriguez
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Losses: Johnny Giavotella, Vidal Nuno, Francisco Pena, Logan Verrett, Jason
Wheeler, Pedro Alvarez, Ryan Flaherty, Craig Gentry, Jeremy Hellickson, Ubaldo
Jimenez, Seth Smith, JJ Hardy, Wade Miley, Nathan Adcock, Robert Andino,
Welington Castillo
Meh. What a boring offseason for Baltimore. Cash-strapped by some bad deals (Hi, Chris
Davis!) and an uncertain future, the Orioles have had a pretty quiet offseason. They
considered trade offers for Adam Jones, Manny Machado, and Zach Britton, but never
pulled the trigger. The nice thing is that there is some financial flexibility for the future,
with only Davis, Mark Trumbo, and Darren O’Day under guaranteed contracts for 2019,
but in an underwhelming offseason, Baltimore has certainly fit the narrative.
It’s hard to even split hairs over what the most notable acquisition actually is. It is
probably the Rule 5 Draft Pick Nestor Cortes. It could be the promotions of Chance Sisco
and Austin Hays, who are top-five prospects in the system per both Baseball Prospectus
and Baseball America. If Cortes and Mesa both make the roster, Baltimore could have
four former Rule 5 picks on the roster, which is a lot.
Why bet the over?
Jonathan Schoop’s breakout campaign in 2017 may not be the most sustainable thing
we’ve seen, but he was a four-win player on a team that desperately needed somebody to
stand out. Schoop hit 32 dingers and posted a .293/.338/.503 slash line with a .355 wOBA
and a 121 wRC+. A spike to a 5.2 percent BB% would usually not register on my radar,
but considering Schoop posted BB% of 2.7, 2.8, and 3.2 percent, respectively, over his
first three significant MLB sample sizes, his evolution as a hitter seems pretty clear. He
increased his contact quality and managed to walk a little bit more. Those are two very
important attributes as life without Manny Machado looms.
Speaking of Machado, a pedestrian offensive season in 2017 is not what we should
expect in 2018. Machado’s 102 wRC+ means that he was just two percent above league
average last season. It seems unlikely that he will repeat that type of performance. He still
hit 33 home runs, but it was his .265 BABIP that really stood out. Because of the low
BABIP and a below average walk rate, Machado’s .310 OBP ranked in the bottom 25 of
qualified MLB players. Considering Chris Davis and Mark Trumbo joined him in that
department, Machado’s offensive woes were a major contributing factor to Baltimore’s
subpar season. We’re talking about a guy with a .301 career BABIP and a .279/.329/.476
slash. He posted a .265 BABIP with a .259/.310/.471 slash. His 2016 may have been the
peak, with a .294/.343/.533 slash, but his 2018 should fall in between. He will move back
to his natural position at shortstop this season, which is an interesting development.
Oddly enough, as Baltimore played more like the Padres or Reds down the stretch, Tim
Beckham looked like the former #1 overall pick that people expected. Beckham has
really been a fringe Major Leaguer for most of his career, but he slashed .306/.348/.523
in 230 plate appearances with Baltimore. His fWAR (Fangraphs Wins Above
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Replacement Player) of 2.0 in those 50 games was quite a capper to a career year. Maybe
he’s just a late bloomer at 28.
Somebody should hide Trey Mancini’s glove before he goes to the dugout, but he can hit
a little. Mancini hung a .293/.338/.488 slash with a .349 wOBA and a 117 wRC+ in 586
PA. He also thrived against right-handed pitching with a .362 wOBA and an .860 OPS,
so that was good to see. Adam Jones was also a plus offensive player with a .334 wOBA
and a 107 wRC.
We can take a glass half-full approach to Chris Davis and say that he posted a below
average wRC+ for the first time since 2014. We could also say that in this new era of
power, he’s basically a severely overpaid hacker. Maybe a clean slate will help.
Catcher Chance Sisco and outfielder Austin Hays bring some intrigue to the table. Sisco
walks, which already makes him different than just about every Orioles hitter. He
regularly posted double-digit BB% marks in the minors and put bat to ball at a decent
clip, at least until he got to Triple-A. Austin Hays has been fast-tracked through the
system as a guy with high contact quality that doesn’t walk a whole lot. I wonder why the
Orioles liked him as a third-rounder in 2016.
This is still a solid bullpen. One of my biggest adjustments from 2017 to 2018 is going to
be a greater focus on the bullpen. In 2017, starters threw 26,787.1 innings. In 2016, they
threw 27,412.2 innings and in 2015 they threw 28,223.1 innings. As you can see, the
specialization of the game is really taking effect. Teams are pulling starters earlier and
starters are having less of an impact. Basically, starters have gone from 5.8 innings per
start in 2015 to 5.5 innings per start in 2017. That means that, on average, relievers are
being asked to get at least one more out per game over the course of the entire season.
That is significant to say the least.
So, with that in mind, Baltimore’s bullpen is a strength. We’ll see how quickly Zach
Britton can get back from a ruptured Achilles tendon suffered in December, but he wasn’t
particularly good last season anyway and experienced a big drop in velocity. A trio of
right-handers makes up the best parts of this Baltimore bullpen. Brad Brach, Darren
O’Day and Mychal Givens are all valuable assets. They actually ranked third, fourth, and
fifth in fWAR for this team, with Givens as the standout star in his 69 appearances.
Givens runs it up there in the upper 90s with good deception and a plus secondary pitch.
He struck out 27.9 percent of his batters and cut his walk rate by 3.6 percent. O’Day, the
side-winding right-hander, struck out nearly 32 percent of batters faced. Brach was
dominant in the first half with a .226 wOBA against and a 41/11 K/BB ratio in 38.1
innings. He wasn’t as good in the second half with a .318 wOBA against and a 29/15
K/BB ratio in 29.2 innings of work, but still solid. The Orioles have enough matchup
lefties and depth guys to fill this pen out and a return from Britton would help.
Command remained a bit of a problem for Kevin Gausman, but the 27-year-old right-
hander showed front-of-the-rotation promise in the second half. After a horrendous first
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half with a .317/.387/.480 slash against with a .373 wOBA, Gausman was really strong in
the second half. He limited batters to a .314 wOBA and had 96 strikeouts in 89.2 innings
of work. The depth that Gausman added to his splitter was the big change. He went from
an eight percent swinging strike rate to a 19 percent swinging strike rate on the pitch
per Alex Chamberlain of Rotographs. The overall numbers were not impressive at all
with a 4.68 ERA, a 4.48 FIP, and a 4.33 xFIP, but the second half was solid. He was a
three-win pitcher in 2016 with a 3.61/4.10/3.77 pitcher slash (ERA/FIP/xFIP). It isn’t
ace-worthy, but he’s got the upside of an above average starter.
Is Dylan Bundy the ace-worthy one? Bundy also struggled a bit in the first half, but not to
the degree of Gausman. He allowed a .247/.315/.454 slash line. In the second half, over
just 61.2 innings, opposing hitters only posted a .277 wOBA with a .221/.277/.363 slash.
He went from 84 strikeouts in 108 innings in the first half to 68 in 61.2 in the second half.
He ran out of gas in September and was shut down with some nagging injuries, but
Bundy showed the panache that made him the fourth overall pick in the 2011 draft. The
best thing is that Bundy was finally healthy. He worked 169.2 innings after working 173
innings over the previous three seasons combined.
This is where it gets dicey. The Orioles have about 560 pitchers in camp and the last three
spots in the rotation are totally up for grabs. Playing win totals is about looking for
hidden value and upside. Nestor Cortes may be that guy for the Birds. Cortes pitched at
three different levels last season in the Yankees organization and was unprotected during
the Rule 5 Draft. The stout southpaw stands 5-foot-11 and weighs over 200 pounds. Like
a lot of lefties, he hides the ball really well, which led to a lot of swings and misses in the
low minors and a good number of them in his 48.1 innings at the Triple-A level last
season. Eric Longenhagen had a good scouting report on Cortes after the Rule 5 picks
were made. Perhaps the Orioles have something here? Buck Showalter and pitching
coach Roger McDowell seem pretty excited about Cortes.
Andrew Cashner will slot into the rotation and he’s a warm body whose work was highly
appreciated by Baseball-Reference last season. He posted a 3.40 ERA. I think B-R’s
WAR calculation is broken, but he’s a proven MLB pitcher and the Orioles didn’t have
many of those in contention for the rotation before he was signed. Chris Tillman falls into
this same category.
Why bet the under?
One of my biggest considerations in these season win total previews is depth. Teams
generally use about 45-50 different players over the course of the season, with anywhere
from 24-28 of them being pitchers. The 40-man roster gets used and abused, especially
with the new 10-day disabled list.
Beyond Cortes, the options are not plentiful in the rotation and depth is a big worry.
Relief profiles like Miguel Castro and Gabriel Ynoa are being stretched out as starters out
of necessity. Fringe MLBers like Alec Asher and Asher Wojciechowski have way too
high of a chance of making this rotation, though the signings of below average arms like
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Andrew Cashner and Chris Tillman have lessened those possibilities. Furthermore, Kevin
Gausman and Dylan Bundy, for as good as their second halves were, are not sure bets.
Neither one profiles as an ace, which leaves the Orioles with basically a fringe #2, a #3,
and a bunch of #6 starters. As I’ve mentioned, I’m going to focus less on starting pitchers
and more on bullpens, but it is extremely hard to ignore just how subpar this rotation
truly is.
We’ll start with the most recent signing in Andrew Cashner. Cashner was a 4.6-win
pitcher per Baseball-Reference and a 1.9-win pitcher per Fangraphs. He had a 3.40 ERA,
which is cool, but he also had a 4.61 FIP and a 5.30 xFIP. He had a 12.2 percent K% and
a 9.1 percent BB%. He was extremely fortunate to have a .266 BABIP against and a 74
percent LOB% with one of the league’s worst strikeout rates. He is not a guy to bet on.
Gausman’s command profile is still a worry. If the splitter adjustments hold, he can
continue to have success, but he has allowed 57 HR over the last two seasons. Last year
his walk rate ballooned to 8.7 percent. For a guy with below average command that has
allowed a .314 BABIP against in his 639.2 career MLB innings in spite of the high home
run rate, any spike in free passes is a problem.
Bundy remains a major injury concern. He’s made 42 starts and 64 appearances over the
last two seasons covering 279.1 innings of work, but those concerns will always be there.
His velocity was down over the course of the season, and not just because he had relief
appearances in 2016. He is still finding his way and learning how to manage his body for
the duration of a season. Increased slider/cutter usage will put additional strain on his
elbow. The Orioles allowed him to dig deeper into his arsenal last season, which certainly
helped his performance, but will there be some residual health issues this season? We’ll
have to wait and see, but any sort of injury to Gausman or Bundy, even something like an
oblique, would be disastrous for this rotation.
Depth is a big worry overall. Along with a backup catcher that swings a toothpick in
Caleb Joseph, Joey Rickard, Engelb Vielma, and Anthony Santander are projected to
occupy bench spots per Roster Resource. Andrew Susac may win the backup gig. Luis
Sardinas may be a utility IF. Top prospect Ryan Mountcastle seems to be a year or two
away. Jaycob Brugman may make it. None of these names are all that spectacular for
2018.
With some older players and a heavy reliance on Machado and Schoop, injuries could be
a real killer. Injuries are a concern with all 30 teams from a win total standpoint, so this
won’t be exclusive to the Orioles, but Schoop, Machado, departed free agent Welington
Castillo, and Beckham were the only offense players to post two fWAR or higher. You’d
prefer to back a team on an over that has production spread throughout the roster.
Overall, the Orioles don’t look like much of a defensive team. Manny Machado moves
back to shortstop and that is a bit of an unknown for him. He came up through the ranks
as a shortstop, but has only played 433 innings at shortstop in his MLB days. Tim
Beckham has very little experience at third base. Adam Jones’s defensive play continues
26
to wane in center field. Mark Trumbo looks like a guy that downed a bottle of Everclear
before playing the outfield. Chris Davis isn’t great at first base.
My biggest issues with the Orioles are that they make life really hard on themselves.
They don’t walk. They don’t steal bases. They don’t have a lot of swing-and-miss in the
rotation, so balls are put in play with a lot of average to below average fielders. They
have such a low margin for error. Sure, they have some guys that can mash a baseball,
but everybody hits 20 in the Juiced Ball Era and if you’re any good, you’re now hitting
30. The low OBP/high SLG offensive profile doesn’t lend itself well to the current run
environment. The sad irony in it all is that Gausman and Bundy, the closest things
resembling starting pitchers on this team, give up a lot of home runs.
The bullpen is very good, at least entering the season. Brad Brach is an impending free
agent and the Orioles have to make that move when they’re out of the hunt. Zach Britton
is an impending free agent, so if he gets healthy, he’s on the move. Darren O’Day has
two years left on his four-year, $31M deal. He’s going to be harder to move given what
we saw free agents go for this winter, but $9M for him in 2019 isn’t a bad gamble at all.
Manny Machado will be a highly sought after rental at the Trade Deadline. Adam Jones
might have some interest from a team that wants to play him in a corner and can get a
discount on his $17,333,333 price tag. To date, Peter Angelos has been reluctant to green
light the front office on trades, but these free agents are all gone after the season. Trades
need to be made. Those trades are going to leave this team looking like the Island of
Misfit Toys for August and September.
Those considerations have to be made about season win totals. What a team looks like in
April is usually not what a team looks like in August and September, especially with
teams that are expected to post losing records.
Pick: Over 72.5 (-110; 5Dimes)
This is not a strong pick out of the gate. The Orioles are too high-risk for me because this
is a team plenty capable of going under the number if Manny Machado and Brad Brach
do not play out the string with the team. That being said, it is really hard to lose 90
games. We had two teams win more than 100 games in the American League last season
and still only had two teams lose more than 89 games. Six teams did it in the NL, so it is
possible, but the Orioles really aren’t that devoid of talent.
I believe in this bullpen and I believe in Buck Showalter. I just don’t believe in this
rotation and I believe that the August version of the Orioles looks a lot different than the
April version. Early lines in Las Vegas were closer to 77 with Baltimore, at which point I
would have had a much stronger opinion on the under. At this point, there really isn’t any
value on this number one way or another. Last year’s Baltimore team had a poor rotation
and basically the same offense and it was a 68-66 team through 134 games with a similar
setup in the division in that Boston and New York were clearly better than everybody
27
else and the rest of the AL East was fighting for scraps. There will be better opportunities
as we go along.
28
Boston Red Sox
Even though the New York Yankees were better in just about every way, it was the
Boston Red Sox that won the American League East Division in 2017. The Red Sox
seem to come into the 2018 season as something of an afterthought, with New York’s
Giancarlo Stanton acquisition, the reigning World Series champion Houston Astros, and
the very strong Cleveland Indians drawing most of the headlines in the Junior Circuit.
Perhaps the recent JD Martinez signing has changed that narrative.
Teams don’t win 93 games by accident. Sure, Boston had the fewest wins of any division
winner outside of the Chicago Cubs and got bounced quickly by the Astros in the first
round, but this is hardly a ruined team. Offense was a problem in 2017, to say the least,
but a roster with Chris Sale, David Price, Craig Kimbrel, Mookie Betts, Xander Bogaerts,
JD Martinez, and a cast of average or better Major Leaguers is a pretty damn good
foundation from which to build.
The Red Sox finished exactly as expected per Pythagorean Win-Loss, but BaseRuns
painted a less favorable picture. The Red Sox were the second-biggest overachiever per
that alternate standings metric. The Red Sox were more like an 87-75 team in a world of
context-neutral outcomes. They were -0.2 runs scored per game and +0.18 runs allowed
per game if you eliminate sequencing. Basically, BaseRuns serves as a metric to
determine luck. The Red Sox posted a 105 wRC+ and a .334 wOBA with men in scoring
position. With the bases empty, they posted an 89 wRC+ and a .311 wOBA. Overall, they
posted a 92 wRC+ and a .316 wOBA. In other words, the Red Sox had their best
offensive production at the most opportune times, which can obscure a lot of weaknesses.
Contrary to popular belief, there is no correlation to hitting with runners in scoring
position. It is not a “skill”. Good hitters are good hitters irrespective of the situation.
Guys that put bat to ball at a higher percentage than power hitters that strike out a lot will
probably have better numbers with RISP, but that is simply a byproduct of an overall
skill, not a skill with hitting in high-leverage situations. JC Bradbury covered many of
these topics in The Baseball Economist, which is a recommended read for those
interested in a comparison of old-school statistics versus new-school philosophies.
In any event, the Red Sox were 10th in runs scored, but 20th in wOBA and 22nd in
wRC+. I like teams like this from a win total standpoint because it gives me something to
work with. Are the Red Sox going to be better all around offensively? Will they regress
to the mean with RISP? I haven’t even really talked about the pitching staff yet. This will
be a good one to explain a lot of the concepts I’ll be using in my writing and to illustrate
why I find these advanced metrics to be the best predictors of future success.
Season Win Total Odds (as of February 21):
5Dimes: 90.5 (-155/135)
BetOnline: 91.5 (-135/115)
Bovada: 91.5 (-140/110)
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Additions: JD Martinez, Eduardo Nunez, Oscar Hernandez, Ivan De Jesus Jr.,
Esteban Quiroz, Luke Tendler, William Cuevas, Andy Ferguson, Fernando
Rodriguez
Losses: Kyle Kendrick, Fernando Abad, Blaine Boyer, Rajai Davis, Doug Fister,
Eduardo Nunez, Addison Reed, Robbie Ross, Josh Rutledge, Chris Young, Brian
Bogusevic, Henry Owens
The game of chicken between Scott Boras and the teams interested in JD Martinez went
on for a while, but he eventually signed with the Red Sox for $22 million per. That move
made too much sense. Between teams sitting too close to the luxury tax threshold and
next season’s epic crop of free agents, this was the only legitimate destination for
Martinez.
The players lost to free agency and waivers are mostly part-time players. The Red Sox
really didn’t have a whole lot of holes to fill. I’m a bit surprised that they did not try to
build up the bullpen around Craig Kimbrel, but Tyler Thornburg could basically be
considered a free agent addition after missing basically all of 2017.
Why bet the over?
Teams that have quiet offseasons are often overlooked coming into the season. The Red
Sox really didn’t need to add much of anything. Better health is basically all that the Red
Sox need in 2018. Xander Bogaerts played through injuries. Dustin Pedroia was limited
to 463 plate appearances. David Price only worked 74.2 innings. Eduardo Rodriguez only
worked 137.1 innings. Tyler Thornburg never threw a pitch in a meaningful game.
Adding another 100+ innings from Price, 60ish from Thornburg, and another 20-30 from
Rodriguez would be extremely significant for the Red Sox.
Mookie Betts is one of the players that you want near the top of your draft board. Betts
went from a .379 wOBA and a 137 wRC+ in 2016 to a .339 wOBA and a 108 wRC+ in
2017. A big reason why is because Betts posted a .268 BABIP. The contact quality took a
big tumble for Betts, who became pull-happy and hit fewer line drives. He hit more fly
balls and saw a huge tumble in his HR/FB%. He actually had a career-best 10.8 percent
BB%, but his OBP was lower than the previous season when he had a 6.7 percent BB%
because of the drop in contact quality. Despite just an 11.9 percent K% against RHP,
Betts posted just a .258 BABIP. Considering an everyday player will have about 70-72
percent of his plate appearances against right-handers, this was a killer for Betts’s season.
Betts’s xBA was .261 and his actual BA was .264, so Statcast really didn’t like the batted
ball profile. We’ll see if Betts can make the necessary changes and stay healthy. Even if
he doesn’t, he has an extremely high ceiling as a player that creates surplus value in the
field and on the bases. Betts was eight percent above league average offensively and was
still worth more than five fWAR. Imagine his value if the offense comes back like it
should.
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Xander Bogaerts’s offensive profile took a big step back, but he, like Betts, was playing
through an injury. For Bogaerts, it was a wrist injury and it crippled his offensive value.
He’ll never an elite offensive threat, but he plays above average defense and posted
wRC+ marks of 111 and 115 in 2015 and 2016, respectively. Last season, he fell to 96.
Like Betts, Bogaerts set a career high in BB%, but contact quality was a problem. He
went from 21 home runs to 10 home runs in a season when everybody was hitting dongs.
He still created value in the field and on the basepaths, so he, once again, like Betts, is a
player with a high floor. A healthier Bogaerts means a better slash line and a better slash
line means a better player. Look for Bogaerts to get back to four wins at a minimum.
We’re looking at two players worth about 10 fWAR already, simply with better fortunes
in the health department.
JD Martinez hit .303/.476/.690 with two different teams last season. He’s a terrible
defensive outfielder, but he can DH for the Red Sox or play left field in a pinch, which
even Manny Ramirez did admirably when he was in Beantown. Martinez is instant
offense and quite possibly the missing piece for this team. Speaking of late additions, the
Red Sox reunited with Eduardo Nunez, who will slot in at second base while Dustin
Pedroia recovers and then will be moved around as a utility guy.
Andrew Benintendi had a 20/20 season and a BB% of 10.6 percent, but he did wear down
in the second half of his first full season with a drop in power and a spike in strikeouts.
Dustin Pedroia walked more than he struck out, but generated very little power with a
sub-.400 SLG because of injuries. Jackie Bradley Jr., who posted a .354 wOBA and a 119
wRC+ in 2016, fell back to a .313 wOBA and a 90 wRC+ in 2017. He went from 26 HR
to 17 HR and his walk rate fell. He also had a lower BABIP. Basically, it was a perfect
storm for the Boston offense in that everybody decreased in a lot of key offensive
categories all at once.
Mitch Moreland is a mostly useful player at first base. Rafael Devers certainly has a ton
of upside after a .284/.338/.482 debut in 240 plate appearances last season. Christian
Vazquez was useful enough behind the plate for a catcher with a good arm that threw out
21 of 50 would-be base stealers. Hanley Ramirez was not particularly good, and the
advanced metrics did not like him much, but he did hit 23 HR and forms an interesting
platoon with Moreland at first.
Pedroia is set to miss at least the first two months of the season, but probably won’t be
back until mid-to-late June, so that could be a hindrance for the Red Sox, but Nunez will
plug that hole and shoulder the load until Pedroia returns.
All in all, this is an offense that needs to be respected. There are some guys that played
through some injuries last season and dropped off in key areas. They aren’t old players
that could simply be falling apart, well, except for Pedroia. Betts and Bogaerts are two
mid-20s cornerstones set for bounce back offensive campaigns.
It will also be interesting to see how new skipper Alex Cora handles this team. Recently,
Bradley Jr. talked about how he plans to steal more bases this season. The key takeaway
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from those quotes is that it seems like Cora will give players the freedom to be more
aggressive on the bases. We know that in this era of power, a caught stealing is more
hurtful than it was in recent years and as hurtful as it was during the Steroid Era. If the
Red Sox can steal bases with enough efficiency, it can produce some surplus value, to go
along with how good this team is defensively. That could be a reason why the Red Sox
brought back utility man Eduardo Nunez.
Only Tampa Bay and the Dodgers had more defensive runs saved last season than the
Red Sox and no team in baseball had a higher UZR. Over the last three seasons, only the
Cubs had more defensive runs saved than the Red Sox.
I’m over 950 words into why you should believe in the Red Sox to go over the season
win total and haven’t even mentioned the best player on the team. Ace Chris Sale had a
legitimate case at the Cy Young Award, but came up short against Corey Kluber. Sale
was phenomenal. He had the best season of his career from a K% standpoint at 36.2
percent. Let’s remember that he used to be a reliever back in 2010 and 2011. He posted
the lowest FIP of his career at 2.45. He posted the second-best xFIP of his career as a
starter at 2.65. He struck out 308 batters, becoming the first American League pitcher to
cross the 300 plateau since Pedro Martinez in 1999. He had the third-highest K% dating
back my arbitrary search of 1975. Basically, the dude was awesome, as he racked up 7.7
fWAR. I’m not going to say that he’ll repeat 2017 because it was such a record-setting
season, but a healthy Chris Sale competes for the Cy Young Award again and probably
wins it.
That David Price guy is pretty good, too. I think there are going to be a lot of skeptics
about Price, who had some elbow discomfort last season and was limited to 11 starts and
five relief appearances. Price is 32, but he’s still under that relatively unspoken threshold
of 2,000 innings, so I have to think there’s life left in that arm. He’s a career
3.22/3.27/3.41 pitcher slash guy. Like most of the Red Sox, better health should yield
better production. He still held opposing batters to a .303 wOBA in his 66 innings as a
starter with a 63/22 K/BB ratio. Maybe he’s not the elite ace-level guy he once was, but
he’s still very solid.
One of my best calls last season was to fade Rick Porcello. He may go down as the
unlikeliest Cy Young winner ever by the time all is said and done on his career. It was
easy to fade him last season. He had a career year because of a .269 BABIP against and
posted a 3.15 ERA with a 3.89 xFIP in 2016. xFIP has traditionally been a good predictor
of future performance. As it turned out, Porcello posted a 4.65 ERA with a 4.60 FIP and a
4.43 xFIP, so he really hit a wall. He allowed 38 home runs and 236 hits because he
completely lost his command. I’m not looking to buy a lot of Rick Porcello stock, but I’d
speculate with a minor position. He should be somewhere in the middle of 2016 and 2017
barring another horrendous year with his command. He had one of those in his first
season with Boston, but managed a 3.72 xFIP.
If you have realistic expectations for Drew Pomeranz, you’ll really like him. Pomeranz
has averaged three fWAR over the last two seasons with over a strikeout per inning and
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some less-than-stellar peripherals. For whatever reason, Pomeranz has been able to carry
an 80 percent LOB% over his last 344.1 innings of work. If that regresses a lot (league
average is around 73 percent), then he’ll lose some value. You can still pencil Pomeranz
in for 170 innings at better than league average. That plays well in this rotation,
especially without Eduardo Rodriguez, who I’m very high on, until probably late May
because of knee surgery.
Craig Kimbrel is an elite relief arm. There aren’t enough adjectives worth of praise to
heap on him. He’s phenomenal. The rest of the bullpen is a question mark. Tyler
Thornburg was excellent in 2016 with a 2.15/2.83/3.28 pitcher slash, but he was
unavailable in 2017. His return would be huge. Matt Barnes and Joe Kelly are pretty
useful right-handers. Carson Smith returns from Tommy John surgery that has limited
him to 11 MLB appearances over the last two seasons. He was a two-win reliever for
Seattle in 2015 in 70 appearances. The Red Sox would be wise to grab a matchup lefty
off of the free agent scrap heap and there are a few of those out there to consider.
I like that nobody is really talking about Boston. This is a team loaded with talent that
also creates some additional value by being among the league leaders defensively. This is
a team that won 93 games with a bunch of key losses or players playing at less than 100
percent. There is also some organizational depth with prospects like Sam Travis and
Michael Chavis knocking on the door to the big leagues.
Why bet the under?
Remember those skeptics I talked about with regards to David Price? Maybe they are
justified. Maybe the drop in command that we saw in 2016 was a sign of things to come.
That year, Price’s HR/FB% increased to 13.5 percent and his BABIP against was still the
highest of his career. Remember that home runs don’t count towards BABIP because they
are not balls in play. Price is something of a wild card in that his last season and a half
doesn’t look as good as his seasons with the Rays and then his split seasons with stops in
Detroit and Toronto.
Price isn’t the only injury risk in this rotation. People have long talked about the
mechanics and heavy slider usage of Chris Sale. Thus far, he hasn’t missed any extended
time, but you never know. Again, injuries are just part of the risk when it comes to these
things, but an elite pitcher like Sale cannot be replaced.
The more obvious injury risks are Drew Pomeranz, who has made 62 starts over the last
two seasons but always seems to be bothered by a triceps injury, and Eduardo Rodriguez,
who has had knee and elbow problems throughout his career and is out until the end of
April. There is always the chance that Pomeranz’s LOB% finally decides to regress and
he winds up losing some of his value. The advanced metrics certainly point to that
happening sooner rather than later. It is also interesting to point out that he posted an
identical ERA in 2017 to 2016, despite a BABIP against that was 42 points higher. His
K% fell by three percent while his walk rate stayed the same at 9.3 percent, which is a
little below average. I’m not sure how much stock I’d buy in him.
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Rick Porcello’s command may just be bad. The outlier is his 2016 Cy Young season, not
his full body of work. An increased strikeout rate with Boston has been helpful, but he’s
just finding the barrel way too often. Porcello’s 4.28 SIERA was his highest since 2010,
when he was a second-year hurler for the Tigers at just 22 years of age. As Jeff Sullivan
wrote in October, Porcello fell back in love with his two-seamer and it just isn’t an
effective pitch, with a below average ground ball rate and a below average swinging
strike rate. Will some new voices help Porcello change his arsenal? I’m not sure.
The reason I harp so much on the rotation is that this is the pitching strength of the team.
The bullpen is Craig Kimbrel and a bunch of guys. Matt Barnes is a pretty standard RHP
in today’s specialized game. Tyler Thornburg is the only reliever with legitimate upside,
but he’s coming back from Thoracic Outlet Syndrome Surgery. Others to have that
procedure in recent years are Matt Harvey, Shaun Marcum, Phil Hughes, Luke Hochevar,
and Jaime Garcia. We take for granted the success rate of Tommy John, which is still a
major procedure. TOS surgery is an even greater unknown for pitchers. We’ve seen the
Harvey struggles firsthand, as one example. Carson Smith has some upside, in that he’s
training for the season instead of rehabbing, but he’s still a post-Tommy John guy.
This bullpen needs one of the free agents that are out there. Given that a lot of guys are
signing really cheap deals, I’m surprised Boston hasn’t scooped anybody up yet. Maybe
they are truly content with their in-house options. I wouldn’t be.
I feel like I laid out a pretty compelling case for the offense, so let’s try to do the
opposite. Power is the name of the game nowadays. The Red Sox hit more home runs
than the Braves, Pirates, and Giants last season. Remember that pitchers hit regularly in
the NL and that Pittsburgh and San Francisco have two of the worst hitting venues in
baseball. The next closest AL team to Boston was the White Sox with 186 home runs, 18
more than their colored sock-wearing brethren. JD Martinez helps, but let’s remember
that Martinez did only hit 22 HR in 2016. He still had a huge offensive season, but the
spike to 45 last year in fewer plate appearances with an unsustainably high 33.8 percent
HR/FB% should be met with some skepticism. Martinez will be a good hitter, but I’d be
stunned if he sustains last year’s pace.
It was a team-wide issue of contact quality. The Red Sox were 17th in BABIP at .300 and
towards the bottom of the league in slugging percentage because they simply didn’t
square up enough baseballs. As a team, the Red Sox were ninth among the 15 American
League teams in average exit velocity on a sample size of 4,489 balls in play. With the
talent level on this team, that simply isn’t good enough. Just think of how lackluster this
offense would have been had it not been for the timeliness of the hits. In that context-
neutral BaseRuns environment, instead of 785 runs scored, the Red Sox would have been
down to around 753 or 754 runs. That would have ranked around the middle of the pack,
which would have been much more indicative of the performance from this offense.
This is also a high win total. The higher the win total, the lower the margin for error. The
Yankees are certainly better and I happen to like the Blue Jays on the surface. Tampa Bay
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and Baltimore are not complete doormats like some of the teams around the league. As a
random aside, the Red Sox were 16-4 in interleague play. They were also 15-3 in extra-
inning games, which is another anomaly. Regress those two numbers a bit and we start
chipping away at a high win total.
Alex Cora is new to managing. As I mentioned in my Baltimore write-up, I don’t really
know what a manager is worth. I’m not entirely sure how to quantify that. What I do
know is that John Farrell didn’t stand out one way or another. Cora doesn’t have the
luxury that some other managers have with regards to deploying relievers. Will he use
Kimbrel for multi-inning saves or in the highest-leverage spots? Will he find that guy he
can trust? The blueprint isn’t as obvious as it is with other teams and those decisions at
the margins can be a deciding factor with a win total.
Pick: Over 90.5 (-155; 5Dimes)
You cannot tell me that the Red Sox are a worse team now than they were when they won
93 games last season. Mookie Betts, Xander Bogaerts, David Price, and Dustin Pedroia
either played hurt or missed time from injury. JD Martinez adds that power element that
the Red Sox sorely needed and Eduardo Nunez is a really quality utility player to bounce
all over the diamond. He was solid in his 38-game sample size, too.
Admittedly, the bullpen is a concern and starting rotation depth is not in abundance, but
the Red Sox can get by and there are still some cheap relief options out there that can be
had for Monopoly money. This offense should be a lot more consistent than last season’s
group, which excelled at just the right time.
I’m not particularly interested in -155 juice for a season win total, so I’d consider waiting
around and seeing where this one settles. Even with JD Martinez, PECOTA, which is a
driving force behind a lot of season win total moves, has the Red Sox down for 89 wins.
Let the public perception of the Martinez signing die down a bit and then reassess.
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New York Yankees
The best bullpen ever. The two best power hitters in the Major Leagues. How are the
Yankees supposed to lose games? Much to the chagrin of those who still hate the Bronx
Bombers, they are a top contender to win the World Series. Last year’s run to Game 7 of
the ALCS against the eventual champion Houston Astros came after falling behind 2-0 to
the Cleveland Indians in the ALDS. Would the Yankees have beaten the Dodgers? Who
knows, but we might be able to find that out in 2018.
Around this time last year, I started my Yankees season win total write-up by saying that
2016 could not have gone better. New York needed to infuse its minor league system
with talent. The Yankees needed to maximize Aroldis Chapman and Andrew Miller in
the best buyer’s market for relief pitchers that we have ever seen. They did that. As fate
would have it, Chapman came back, so the Yankees netted Gleyber Torres and Starlin
Castro for two months and a playoff run of Chapman. The Chicago Cubs obviously got
their value out of it by winning the World Series, but the Yankees certainly made out
well in that deal.
Not only did the Yankees rebuild the farm system in short order, but they were relevant
deep into September. Now, armed with some solid prospects and a terrific Major League
roster, they’re ready for a run at their 28th World Series title. The hype is certainly
justified. Even without the Giancarlo Stanton addition, this is a Yankees team that went
91-71 last year, but had a Pythagorean Win-Loss record of 100-62 and a BaseRuns record
of 102-60, so they technically underachieved in 2017.
And, yet, Joe Girardi won’t return as manager. Girardi seemed to be at odds with some
players and with the front office. I happen to think that Girardi was one of the better
managers in baseball, and so did Rob Arthur and Rian Watt in this piece from 2016 on
managers who deployed their bullpens well, but he’ll be on MLB Network instead of
in the Yankees dugout. Ironically, former Baseball Tonight analyst Aaron Boone is the
new skipper. We’ll see how he does with the bullpen, but a drunk chimpanzee could
figure that out for this team.
Hopes are high for this team and they should be. I’ve already made a commitment to
value bullpens more and you won’t find one better than this one. Can I possibly look at
the Yankees and consider the under?
Well, I’d be doing me and you a disservice if I didn’t look at this team from all possible
angles, so let’s make a case for both and see which side wins out.
Season Win Total Odds:
5Dimes: 94.5 (-120/100)
BetOnline: 94.5 (-110/-110)
Bovada: 94.5 (-120/-110)
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Additions: Giancarlo Stanton, Brandon Drury, Chase Numata, Danny Espinosa,
Jace Peterson, David Hale, Michael King, Reiver Sammartin, Wade LeBlanc, JP
Sears
Losses: Starlin Castro, Todd Frazier, Jaime Garcia, Matt Holliday, Erik Kratz,
Michael Pineda, Caleb Smith, Garrett Cooper, Ronald Herrera, Jose Devers, Jorge
Guzman, Chase Headley, Bryan Mitchell
One name stands out among that entire group. You guessed it. Jaime Garcia. What a huge
loss for the Yankees, as they scrounge to find starting pitching depth. Michael Pineda had
a hard time avoiding that barrel and then a hard time avoiding the trainer’s room, so he
isn’t that big of a loss, but is a good gamble for the Minnesota Twins. The loss of the
Toddfather and Chase Headley means that newly-acquired Brandon Drury will get the
first crack at third base. Some combination of Tyler Wade and Ronald Torreyes will man
second base.
There are still some free agent infielders out there and it would be a surprise if the
Yankees didn’t bring in some more experienced competition for Spring Training. Wade
LeBlanc is a nice little add for some depth in a swingman capacity and he basically
replaces Bryan Mitchell.
Oh, yeah, and the Yankees acquired Giancarlo Stanton.
Why bet the over?
You would think I would start with the new Bash Brothers of Giancarlo Stanton and
Aaron Judge. But, patience is a virtue that I’m forcing y’all to show. I’m not lying when I
say that this bullpen might be the best one ever constructed. Find me a weakness. I dare
you. DO IT.
You can’t. Personal feelings about Aroldis Chapman aside, the dude can throw a baseball
really hard. He *only* struck out 32.9 percent of opposing hitters last season. That was
the lowest mark of his MLB career. LOL. Opposing hitters batted a robust .198.
Chapman’s LOB% regressed to 71.7 percent, which is pretty abnormal for a guy with a
strikeout rate north of 30 percent, so expect that to improve and expect him to post an
ERA in the 2.00 range once again this season, unless there’s some weird sort of
regression for a guy that throws 103.
David Robertson is honestly the unsung hero of this bullpen. He displayed a lot of
versatility in working multiple innings multiple times in the playoffs and that knuckle-
curve is a legit weapon. He struck out 38.6 percent of the batters he faced after the trade
from Chicago. Tommy Kahnle was on that flight to NYC with Robertson and he struck
out 31.3 percent of opposing hitters. Chad Green’s arsenal is stupid. He struck out 41
percent of batters faced. The primary five relievers for the Yankees, Chapman,
Robertson, Kahnle, Green, and Dellin Betances posted SIERAs of 2.97, 2.36, 3.07, 1.97,
and 3.52. Ben Heller, Chasen Shreve, and Adam Warren will battle it out for the
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remaining spots and they are all average to above average arms. To put it simply, just
about every game against the Yankees is a six-inning affair at most. You might scratch
out a rare comeback or two against this bullpen, but the Yankees are going to win a very
high percentage of games with a lead in the late innings or tied in the late innings. That
also has significant playoff value in an environment where starting pitchers really don’t
last long. I know that’s not why we’re here, but I’m just saying.
Today’s game is so specialized. I talked about this in my Baltimore preview, but it’s
worth mentioning again here. Starting pitchers went from 28,223.1 innings pitched in
2015 to 27,412.2 in 2016 and 26,787.1 in 2017. The total in 2018 will be even lower.
Teams seem to have a greater appreciation for the Times Through the Order (TTO)
penalty. We have more foul balls nowadays and there are a lot of deeper counts with the
emphasis on drawing walks. Starters aren’t as efficient as they used to be and teams are
deploying dudes throwing 96+ with regularity out of the bullpen. The Kansas City Royals
probably weren’t the first team to figure this out, but they were the first team to perfect it
in present times, as that 2015 starting rotation was pretty damn bad, but the bullpen was
pretty damn good. Since then, we’ve seen teams take sledgehammers to their proverbial
piggy banks to buy these highly-specialized flamethrowers. It is not a coincidence that
most of the playoff teams from last season had above average bullpens. Nobody in
baseball can stack up to the bullpen of the Yankees. It is something that sets them apart
from the rest of the league.
The Yankees hit the most home runs in baseball last season. They tied with the Indians
for the second-highest wOBA in MLB. Only Houston was higher. Those were clearly the
three best teams in the AL going into the playoffs and things played out in that manner.
The power is great, but the Yankees were also tied for the third-best BB% in baseball, so
they were tied for the second-highest OBP as well. Basically, any way you slice it, this
was a tremendous offense. It wasn’t on Houston’s level, because nobody was, but the
Yankees certainly had a great group.
And they’ve added Giancarlo Stanton to that group. It is remarkable to think that Stanton
is only 28 years of age. It feels like he’s been around forever. Anyway, in a park that was
rather mediocre for hitters, Stanton finished with a .281/.376/.631(!!) slash line, a .410
wOBA, and a 156 wRC+. He cranked 59 dingers and, most importantly, was healthy for
the first time since 2014. Stanton played 159 games and racked up 692 plate appearances.
I’ll save my rant about what Major League Baseball did in approving the current Marlins
ownership group for when I write that win total, but the Yankees got Stanton for pennies
on the dollar. He brings an above average walk rate and elite power to a team that already
had both. Also, let’s consider that Stanton had this enormous season with the lowest
strikeout rate of his career by a pretty big margin. Yes, it’s entirely possible that he is
getting BETTER. And he’ll hit in a better park now. It’s really terrifying, to be honest.
Aaron Judge slashed .284/.422/.627. He struck out a ton, but who cares when you clobber
52 dingers and walk 18.7 percent of the time. Judge was neutralized by Indians pitching
in the ALDS for the most part, but you don’t see many teams running out elite right-
handers like Corey Kluber and Carlos Carrasco or dudes with ridiculous stuff like Trevor
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Bauer, Andrew Miller, or Cody Allen. Judge was worth 8.2 wins above replacement
player per Fangraphs. He had a .430 wOBA and a 173 wRC+. Sure, we could try to make
a case for a regression, with an insane .343 ISO and a .357 BABIP. But the dude just hits
the ball remarkably hard. The ways to carry a high BABIP are to get lucky, be
ridiculously fast, or hit the ball really f*cking hard. Judge falls in that final category.
Teams will probably make some adjustments, but he’s still an elite hitter.
Gary Sanchez catches like a blind man trying to snag a bouncy ball on a hop, but he has a
solid throwing arm and he’s a great hitter. Sanchez slashed .278/.345/.531 with a .368
wOBA and a 130 wRC+ in his first full season as a Major Leaguer. The 25-year-old has
just over a season’s worth of plate appearances and already owns 7.6 wins above
replacement player. You’ll deal with the wild pitches and the passed balls and the hack
job framing to get offense like this from the catcher position. The arm helps, too.
Didi Gregorius, who now takes up residence in Corey Kluber’s soul, combined his above
average defense with some legitimate offense. Even as a subpar hitter, Gregorius was an
above average player. He still can’t walk, but he has the long ball and that was enough to
post a .335 wOBA and a 107 wRC+. The end result was a career-best 3.9-win season.
Even though newborns walk more than Gregorius, he has lowered his K% each of the last
three seasons, which is a helpful skill as somebody with decent contact quality that can
carry a league average BABIP. The end result has been a steady increase in batting
average, which is useful with a low walk rate. He’s really become a nice player for this
team.
Aaron Hicks is a very fun player. Brett Gardner actually found some power last season. If
Hicks stays healthy, the Yankees could very well have two 20/20 dudes in the outfield
with above average offensive profiles. Second base and third base are areas of concern,
but the free agent market has created some opportunities for the Yankees to grab some
cheap reinforcements.
There is some upside to this Yankees roster as well. Brandon Drury has tools, but hasn’t
been able to find all the nails and screws to utilize them and build a finished product.
Miguel Andujar slashed .317/.364/.502 in Triple-A over 250 plate appearances and
.312/.342/.494 in 272 PA at Double-A last season. He’ll slot into a reserve role with the
Drury addition or play everyday in the minors until he’s ready to replace somebody. Greg
Bird gets to try again after a throwaway 2017 season marred by injury. He slashed
.261/.343/.529 in 2015 across 178 MLB PA. Gleyber Torres should be back from Tommy
John early in the year and Clint Frazier is still in the organization.
The starting rotation is the weak link of this roster, but it really isn’t all that bad.
Masahiro Tanaka is a fascinating pitcher coming into the season. He posted the second-
highest K% and best K/9 of his career at the MLB level in 2017. But, he had a brutal 4.74
ERA. Why? Because he allowed a 21.2 percent HR/FB%. Tanaka’s been a guy with a
penchant for giving up dingers, but it really reached a high level last season. He had a
4.34 FIP, which was also the highest of his career, but he had a 3.44 xFIP. Remember
that xFIP is FIP with a HR/FB% regressed to league average. Tanaka will probably be a
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guy on the high side of average, but he should be in the 15-16 percent range, not the 21
percent range. We need to account for that. I’d expect Tanaka to improve. He allowed 11
HR in 31 innings in the month of May and 24 HR across 147.1 innings in the other five
months. Again, Tanaka is going to give up home runs, but probably not at last season’s
rate. Command was an all-around problem in the first half, but Tanaka was really good in
the second half. His K% ballooned from 23.2 percent to 29.6 percent. His walk rate fell
from 6.1 percent to 4.6 percent. Maybe it was throwing to Sanchez or just a lack of feel
for his arsenal early in the year, but he got better as the season wore on.
Luis Severino had a breakout season for the Yankees. After 11 impressive starts in 2015,
he was yo-yo’d up and down between the big league and Triple-A and the Yankees even
walked the dog with him in the bullpen for 11 appearances. With a defined role, Severino
shined in his 31 starts with a 2.98 ERA, a 3.07 FIP, and a 3.04 xFIP. The end result was a
5.7-win season that sort of came out of nowhere. He had strong minor league numbers,
but not many people saw that level of dominance coming. While I’d expect some
regression this season from a .272 BABIP against and probably slight regressions in both
his K% and BB%, he’s still penciled in safely as a four-win pitcher and I’d easily agree
with that assessment.
It isn’t hyperbole to say that Sonny Gray may define this team’s regular season ceiling.
We’ve already established how good the bullpen and lineup are. Gray can really swing
the balance of the rotation. Workhorse CC Sabathia will throw a good chunk of league
average innings and I really like the breaking ball-heavy arsenal of Jordan Montgomery.
It is Gray, however, that has the upside to push a third above average starter into the mix.
Gray struggled throwing to Sanchez and I think that was a contributing factor in all of his
problems across his 11 starts. He couldn’t throw his arsenal of pitches with a downward
trajectory with as much conviction as he would have liked. He also had command issues
and the tougher ballpark wreaked havoc on his HR rate. He had a 3.72 ERA, but the
peripherals were bad. These players are human beings and Gray was uprooted from the
Oakland organization after eight years of service and wound up in the brightest of media
spotlights.
The projection systems are looking for some league average innings from Gray across 31
starts, which are certainly valuable, but I do think the potential is there for more. The
margin for error is higher with a bullpen like New York’s, but I think Gray is definitely
capable of more. It has been a two-year run with the suspect command, so maybe the
injuries have taken a bit of a toll, but I think there’s something more there.
Another key element in my win total projections is to look at depth. Four of New York’s
top 10 prospects per both Baseball Prospectus and Baseball America are starting pitchers
that are projected to be within a year and a half of the Majors. Domingo German has a
tiny bit of MLB experience. Chance Adams should get some this year. Justus Sheffield is
also a high-upside arm that might make an appearance sooner rather than later. Luis
Cessa can pitch at the MLB level. Chad Green can start if needed. Wade LeBlanc has
MLB starting experience. The Yankees don’t have great depth, but enough to tap into if
need be.
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Why bet the under?
The upside for this team is very clear. The downside is there as well. Brett Gardner is on
the wrong side of 34 and is pushing 35. Jacoby Ellsbury is a shell of what he used to be.
The Yankees don’t have a ton of position player depth, though the move to acquire
Brandon Drury and move Miguel Andujar to a bench role or a starting role in Triple-A
does help. Greg Bird has basically missed two full seasons. The Yankees can absorb
some injuries or bad performances because of guys like Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton,
and Gary Sanchez, but this offense is not foolproof. The prospects like Andujar, Clint
Frazier, and Gleyber Torres are not guarantees.
Brett Gardner posted a SLG over .400 for the first time since 2014, so who knows how
sustainable that is. He did go back to his career average fly ball rate, so maybe he made a
chance with the launch angle craze, but I’m going to be a skeptic about it because guys
traditionally lose power as they get older. They don’t really add it without a major swing
change. That wasn’t the case for Gardner. He’s plenty capable of falling back to 2016’s
.317 wOBA and 97 wRC+. Gardner also saw interesting defensive spikes, which
typically doesn’t happen as a player reaches his mid-30s. He had his highest DRS since
2011 and highest UZR/150 since 2012, when he only played 85 innings. Maybe he’s the
exception to the aging curve rules. I’m not sure, but I doubt it.
Are we buying the abbreviated 2017 campaign from Aaron Hicks? Hicks, whose
previous career high in homers was 11, hit 15 in just 361 plate appearances and posted a
14.1 percent BB%, which was 5.8 percent above his 2016 season. He’s never really been
healthy enough to be a full-time contributor, but he’s never been close to a 127 wRC+ or
a .363 wOBA like he was in the past. His 3.3 fWAR was almost five times the fWAR he
accumulated over his first four seasons combined. Maybe this is just a good fit and he’s
coming into his own. I really don’t know. The defensive prowess in center field also sort
of came out of nowhere. He had never been better than two defensive runs saved and he
was worth 12 in just 440.2 innings in CF? I’m even more skeptical about this than I am
about Gardner. At least Gardner has a track record.
There seems to be a theme here. Didi Gregorius posted wOBA marks of .311, .287, .303,
and .319 before his breakout 2017 season. He is a young player and may simply be
coming into his own, but I have a hard time buying into profiles of players that walk as
little as Gregorius does. Fortunately, his strikeout rate has gone down and his contact
quality has improved, so he may truly be a player on the rise. With his defense, he’s still
a high-floor player. But, I’d be pretty surprised to see an offensive season of last year’s
magnitude. That’s not to say that he’ll lose his value, but you want to look for individual
gains and losses that can have an impact on a win total. These are now three players I’d
be worried about on this Yankees offense. Sure, Giancarlo makes up for a lot of it, but
this is a team with a win total that is 10 games higher than last season.
When the Yankees took a deeper look at Masahiro Tanaka, they were basically told to
expect Tommy John surgery. Pitcher health is always an uncertainty when preparing for
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the season, but we already know that Tanaka has some clear damage to the ulnar
collateral ligament. Could that discomfort be a contributing factor to last season’s lack of
command? It very well could be. We did see Tanaka mostly maintain his fastball velocity
and he did use his slider more last season than he had in any previous MLB season. Keep
in mind that a lot of what I am looking to do here is speculatory. You have to consider all
possibilities and angles when it comes to these teams and their respective situations. But,
we know that Tanaka is injured. We know that he has missed time to have treatment and
to be scaled back. Because this area is the weakness for the Yankees, it simply means
more in your handicap.
What if Sonny Gray can’t get back to what he was? Gray was solid with the Athletics in
spite of a 64.6 percent LOB%, but he did struggle a bit more with the Yankees. He’s in a
much tougher park, where he won’t have the forgiving dimensions of O.co Coliseum. His
ground ball rate plummeted with the Yankees and that certainly hurt him. Gray is not a
big strikeout guy. His primary strength is contact management. We’ve seen that waver
over the last two seasons and I wonder what a full year with a bad defensive catcher in a
great hitter’s park means for him.
As I mentioned already, Luis Severino should regress a little bit, but still remain a high-
caliber starter. CC Sabathia is anybody’s guess at this point. He posted a 3.69 ERA with a
4.49 FIP and a 4.11 xFIP, so he was basically a league average hurler for 148.2 innings.
But, his fastball velocity continues to dwindle and so does his strikeout rate. His walk
rate has been a little on the high side the last two years and he has exhibited some home
run problems over the last three seasons. I’m not sure how long CC can keep being
effective. Add him in with Jordan Montgomery and the carousel of #6 starters and this
starting rotation does have the opportunity to fall back a bit.
Aaron Boone is a wild card. As I mentioned above, Joe Girardi was pretty good at
deploying relievers. I don’t know what an unproven skipper like Boone will bring to the
table. There’s really no way of knowing. I do know that I find him to be a downgrade to
Girardi, even though he will reportedly be better with the players than Girardi. I only
know what I can see and what I can see is how a manager puts his players in a position to
succeed, especially out of the bullpen. I don’t know if Boone will have the feel to pull a
start before things get out of hand. How he’ll set up a lineup. I don’t know. I don’t like
what I don’t know.
Pick: Over 94.5 (-110; BetOnline)
I really wanted to find reasons to go against the Yankees. I think I’ve found some that
carry water with so many individual offensive breakouts that don’t seem wholly
sustainable. This bullpen is the best bullpen I’ve ever seen. The bullpen has a projected
fWAR per Depth Charts of 7.2, which is 1.6 wins better than any other bullpen in
baseball (Houston is second, Cleveland is third, those are your three division winners).
This team is going to post a stupid record in one-run games, if they even bother to win
games by one run with 400 home runs coming from Stanton, Judge, and Sanchez. The
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starting rotation honestly has a decent amount of upside and Jordan Montgomery is the
guy I’m expecting a breakout from. That would really deepen the rotation.
However, best bullpen ever or not, 95 wins is a lot. With the concerns I have about the
individual players, I will not make an investment on this one. I know some are looking to
play back at the under when public perception and PECOTA investment (projected for 99
wins) hits the board. I can’t fault those people. I’ll stay away from this one, but if I had to
pick, I’d go over.
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Tampa Bay Rays
The Tampa Bay Rays have been the talk of the league during the first week of Spring
Training. As it turns out, the trade of Evan Longoria was a sign of things to come and not
just a trade made in a vacuum to improve long-term financial flexibility. I knew at least
one team would bite me by doing a bunch of things after I had written up their season win
total preview. It was this one and the transactions that have been completed have
drastically changed the outlook for the season.
Look, make no mistake, the trade of Evan Longoria was a significant one for the Rays.
Longoria, the third overall pick in the 2006 Draft, knew no other franchise. He was
drafted by the Rays, developed by the Rays, and played 1,435 MLB games with the team.
He’s still a valuable player, but not valuable enough for a team operating under the Rays’
financial constraints to justify that contract. This was a move to create flexibility with a
player that seemed to be a declining asset. He’s 32 years old and signed through 2022
with a team option for 2023. The Rays assumed the cost of $14.5 million out of the $88
million that is due to Longoria and took on Denard Span’s $13 million, but they created
future financial flexibility.
Players like Longoria can be overvalued. Perhaps he bounces back, and that is a
discussion for my San Francisco Giants preview, but he was a below average offensive
player last year with a .312 wOBA and a 96 wRC+. The Rays went 80-82 with a player
that was worth 2.5 fWAR, his lowest total since 2012 when he only played 74 games and
far and away his lowest total in a full season. In a practical sense, the loss of Longoria, at
least the 2017 version, doesn’t hurt the Rays all that much for 2018.
Unfortunately, after I had this entire win total written up, the Rays decided to make some
moves. Corey Dickerson was DFA’d, in what was a very surprising move. The cost-
cutting measure coincided with CJ Cron being acquired from the Angels to play first
base, as the team’s old first baseman, Logan Morrison, still sits out in free agency. The
Rays didn’t stop with Dickerson, though. They traded Jake Odorizzi and Steven Souza Jr.
It is extremely rare to see players report to Spring Training only to have this happen.
Quite frankly, it threw everything for a loop and the Rays certainly seem to be planning
for the future. Now we simply sit and wonder how long before Chris Archer and Kevin
Kiermaier become part of the roster purge.
The Rays fell just shy of .500, but kudos to them for finishing on a high note. The
difference between 80-82 and 76-86 isn’t much, but the Rays, even with .500 off the
table, won four straight to end the season. It may not seem like much, but that does mean
something to me about the character of this team and the respect that they have for Kevin
Cash. Per Pythagorean Win-Loss, Tampa Bay finished with exactly the record that they
should have. Per BaseRuns, though, the Rays should have been an 87-75 team. We’ll talk
more about that big gap in a few seconds.
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In a division with the Yankees and Red Sox, the sledding will be tough and the playoff
chances will be slim. With two 90-win teams likely staking claim to the top spots in the
division, what can we consider Tampa Bay’s ceiling to be?
Season Win Total Odds:
5Dimes: 77.5 (140/-160)
BetOnline: 76.5 (110/-130)
Bovada: 77.5 (135/-165)
Additions: Denard Span, Carlos Gomez, CJ Cron, Joey Wendle, Micah Johnson,
Adam Moore, Johnny Monell, Xorge Carrillo, Brandon Snyder, Ryan Schimpf,
Nick Solak, Christian Arroyo, Jermaine Palacios, Anthony Banda, Evan Scribner,
Vidal Nuno, Ryan Weber
Losses: Evan Longoria, Peter Bourjos, Steve Cishek, Alex Cobb, Lucas Duda,
Logan Morrison, Tommy Hunter, Trevor Plouffe, Colby Rasmus, Brad Boxberger,
Burch Smith, Chase Whitley, Steven Souza Jr., Corey Dickerson, Jake Odorizzi
It wasn’t the sexiest offseason for Tampa Bay, but then they went the opposite direction
in terms of my Spring Training expectations. I expected Tampa Bay to grab some of the
bargain bin FAs that are sitting out there jobless, but they decided to preempt the 2018
selling period by being one before games are even played. And then they bought one in
Carlos Gomez. I’m so frustrated!
The Longoria trade has already been discussed. That was a huge deal and now the infield
looks a whole lot different with Matt Duffy over at third. We’ll likely see a timeshare
with Joey Wendle and Ryan Schimpf at second. It is interesting to me that three of the
more notable free agents left, Alex Cobb, Lucas Duda, and Logan Morrison, are all ex-
Rays.
Two additions that are not listed, but will happen during the season, are Brent Honeywell
and Willy Adames, two of the team’s top prospects.
Why bet the over?
The biggest drawback to the Rays is that the best part of their team is the starting rotation
and that is the worst strength to have in the current landscape of Major League Baseball.
That being said, it is clearly a strength. This group runs at least seven depth with really
high-upside talent, headlined by Chris Archer. Archer’s performance is well-documented,
and I’ll do it here, but my favorite part about him is his personality. Archer visits RBI
(Reviving Baseball in Inner Cities) programs in road cities and is a phenomenal
ambassador for the game. The scouting scale goes from 20-80, as scouts slap number
grades in increments of 5 on player attributes and the ceilings in those attributes. Archer
is a 90-grade human being.
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As it turns out, the dude is a damn good pitcher, too. Archer is a primary reason why I
analyze the game in the manner that I do. He posted a 4.07 ERA last season with a 10-12
record. He was 9-19 in 2016 with a 4.02 ERA. In both of those seasons, however, he
struck out over 27 percent of batters faced. Last season, he struck out 29.2 percent of
opposing batters. A .325 BABIP was his downfall last season and he finished the season
on a sour note with a .320/.371/.536 slash against in 21.2 September innings. His 3.40
FIP and 3.35 xFIP were very solid marks. The contact management thing may be a bit of
an issue, as he has allowed a lot of home runs the last two seasons, but I can’t see a .325
BABIP coming again. I’m expecting Archer to take a step forward this season. He has
worked three straight 200-inning seasons, so maybe you worry about some fatigue with
his pretty average frame, but one of those seasons is coming where his ERA is closer to
his FIP and xFIP, like what we saw in 2015.
The Rays rotation is defined by the upside that it possesses. Archer is the most polished
arm of the bunch. It will be guys like Jake Faria, Blake Snell, and Brent Honeywell that
define the season for Tampa Bay.
Faria made 14 starts and two relief appearances last season. Over those 86.2 innings of
work, he posted a 3.43 ERA with a 4.12 FIP and a 4.39 xFIP. Faria slants a little bit to the
fly ball side, so there is a bit of reason for worry in today’s MLB, but he’s been a guy
with higher strikeout rates in the upper minors than he showed last year in the big
leagues. With only four components to FIP, a low strikeout rate can wreak a bit of havoc
on that number. Faria’s walk rate is about average and his home run rate is roughly
average as well. A 4.12 FIP may not sound great, but that is better than the league
average in both leagues. Last season’s average FIPs for starters in the AL was 4.56 and
4.40 in the NL.
This is a good time to make an important distinction. The definition of “average” is
constantly changing. Furthermore, it is not a negative to say that a player is average. Most
players league-wide are technically below average. An average player will post a 2.0
fWAR. Among the 287 position players to have at least 300 plate appearances, 132 of
them had an fWAR of 2.0 or higher. Among the 167 pitchers with at least 80 innings
pitched, 72 posted an fWAR of 2.0 or higher. You have to re-evaluate your expectations
on a yearly basis for individual player performance. For pitchers, in today’s run
environment, average basically is that “quality start” baseline of three earned runs
allowed over six innings.
When you look at a guy like Faria, or what somebody like Odorizzi has done in 2015 and
2016, maybe it doesn’t immediately jump off the page, but getting innings that surpass
league average is a very important attribute to a team’s success.
Blake Snell is a really fascinating pitcher. He’s a long and lanky 6-foot-4 left-hander with
good deception and very little idea where the ball is going. He throws pretty hard, has a
four-pitch mix, and has dominated minor league hitters. Major Leaguers have done a
better job of laying off of his bad pitches and he had a 10.8 percent walk rate, but he had
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a chase rate over 30 percent and got whiffs nearly 11 percent of the time when batters
swung.
Brent Honeywell is an ace-in-waiting. Honeywell carved up Triple-A in his first 24 starts
with a 3.64 ERA, a 2.84 FIP, and a 2.77 xFIP. He had a .365 BABIP against, so contact
management may be the reason why he never got called up, but he had 152 strikeouts
against 31 walks in his 123.2 innings of work. Financial considerations are probably the
only things that could keep Honeywell in the minors. If the Rays wait until the Super
Two deadline passes, they’ll have an additional year of control. That is typically in early
June. Whenever Honeywell gets to The Show, he’ll be an impact arm.
Nate Eovaldi has had some interesting advanced metrics lately, but has allowed a lot of
hard contact. He missed all of 2017, so he is a wild card, but one with a bit of upside.
Jose De Leon’s prospect stock has fallen a little bit lately. Injuries limited him last season
to just eight starts and three relief appearances. He won’t be a thought at the beginning of
the year, but he could be a mid-season reinforcement.
Alex Colome is a solid back-end arm. He doesn’t miss a ton of bats like a lot of closers,
but he does a phenomenal job of staying off of the barrel. He had a 3.24 ERA with a 3.37
FIP and a 4.32 xFIP. Sometimes pitchers with high xFIPs can be misleading because
xFIP assumed a league average HR/FB%. Some guys just aren’t going to do that. In a
regular year, Colome is one of those guys that won’t carry a high HR/FB%, so you really
don’t even want to look at xFIP with him.
Beyond Colome, we’ll have to see how the Rays piece things together. They re-signed
Sergio Romo while I was in the middle of writing this. Jose Alvarado was a useful
matchup lefty. Andrew Kittredge showed decent feel for avoiding the barrel, with the
16th-lowest exit velocity against among pitchers with at least 30 batted ball events. Matt
Andriese may be converted to a full-time pen arm. I’d expect Tampa Bay to throw a few
darts at the FA RP board and see what they can hit.
The Rays had the highest K% in the American League last year at 25 percent. It was the
third-highest mark in baseball, trailing only the Brewers and Padres, who play in a league
where pitchers hit. Those strikeouts, especially in key spots, really hurt the Rays. As a
general rule, in today’s MLB, strikeouts aren’t a big deal. Hitters are walking and hitting
for power, so that diminishes the negative impacts of a strikeout. The Rays, though,
struck out 24 percent of the time with runners in scoring position. They posted a pathetic
.359 SLG with RISP. That was the worst mark in the league by a very large margin.
The odd thing is that Tampa Bay ranked 20th in SLG over the course of the season with a
.422 SLG. While that is obviously near the bottom third in the league, a 63-point gap in
SLG between the full body of work and the crucial plate appearances that often dictate a
game is a remarkable contrast. A book I would encourage everybody to read is Trading
Bases by Joe Peta. A concept he studied at length is “cluster luck”. Remember how the
Rays were a huge outlier in terms of the BaseRuns record? Well, BaseRuns simply looks
at all outcomes and doesn’t have any bias for situational context. The reason the Rays
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were such an underachiever in BaseRuns is that they only hit 79 of their 228 home runs
with men on base. The Rays tied with the Orioles for the most solo home runs with 149.
Overall, Tampa Bay posted a 98 wRC+ with a .316 wOBA. Their offensive numbers
were not off the charts, but they were hindered by how much trouble they had in higher-
leverage offensive situations. The Rays were dead last in wOBA with runners in scoring
position. They were two percent worse than the league average overall, but 21 percent
worse with RISP. That is precisely why you will see advanced metrics and numbers guys
looking for opportunities to back this team. These are examples of cluster luck. Simply
consider that the Rays managed to be an 80-82 team while doing so much worse than
expected with RISP and with men on base.
BaseRuns actually shows a positive expectation for the Rays from last season in both
runs scored per game and runs allowed per game. In fact, with the context-neutral
environment, the Rays would have been 63 runs better from a run differential standpoint.
This does not mean that Tampa Bay will actually see better results, but it does suggest
that the Rays were unlucky last season and we tend to see “luck” regress to the mean.
The offense suddenly looks a lot different with Steven Souza Jr. traded and Corey
Dickerson DFA’d. The Rays lost a lot of power in those two transactions. CJ Cron will
replace some of it, and he had a fine second half last year. It looks like the door is now
open for talented prospect Jake Bauers to make his MLB debut and Mallex Smith’s
toolsy skill set will get a lot of looks at a corner outfield spot.
Why bet the under?
Unfortunately, the Rays lineup looks a little bit different. Logan Morrison was the team’s
second-best position player via fWAR and had the best wOBA of anybody with more
than 130 plate appearances, but he has not been retained. Evan Longoria was a 2.5-win
player. Steven Souza Jr. posted a .239/.351/.459 season with a .348 wOBA and a 120
wRC+, but he was traded to Arizona. Kevin Kiermaier’s dramatic BABIP swing from
.278 in 2016 to .337 in 2017 is cause for concern, especially with an increased strikeout
rate and a decreased walk rate. Corey Dickerson tanked in the second half and then got
DFA’d. Second-half tank or not, he was still a valuable offensive piece for this team. The
loss of Souza is truly significant. That created a huge hole for the Rays.
Duffy missed all of last season and wasn’t very good offensively in 2016. Wilson Ramos
had flashes of potential in his 224 plate appearances coming back from a torn ACL last
season, but we’ll have to see how the full body of work looks. Until Willy Adames shows
up at the MLB level, second base and shortstop could be supermassive black holes
offensively. Ryan Schimpf is an interesting player with a very weird slash line. He
slashed .158/.284/.424 last season. He struck out 35.5 percent of the time, walked 13.7
percent of the time, and hit 14 HR in 197 PA. I’m not sure how that translates to
Tropicana Field or how he’ll fare against AL pitching, but he’s kind of a fun player,
albeit a flawed one and he’s a poor defender. Denard Span was roughly a league average
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offensive piece last season, but he’s not a great defender. Christian Arroyo’s hit tool is
under debate among scouts, so even when he comes up, who knows what to expect there.
Last year’s Rays lineup was a considerable amount better than this one, as we still wait to
see where free agents end up. The Rays of last year struggled in those high-leverage
spots. If this lineup doesn’t, then it will be interesting to see how things end up. For now,
though, this is a lineup severely lacking upside and impact. Without Souza and Longoria,
this is a lineup projected for a pretty low on-base percentage with marginal slugging
percentages.
The Rays are an interesting test case for me this season. As I’ve already mentioned
extensively in the first division of win totals, bullpens are going to be a significant focus
for me. Tampa Bay has a great rotation. There are some causes for concern with the
starters, but not nearly as many as there are within the bullpen. Colome is fine as a closer,
although I could pick nits about him, too.
The middle relievers really don’t impress me. Jose Alvarado and Dan Jennings are fine
against lefties. Who is going to get outs against righties? Andrew Kittredge was a pretty
mediocre reliever in the Mariners system that only recently found the knack for striking
people out. I won’t get bent about the peripherals for his small, 15-inning sample size, but
I’m skeptical. Sergio Romo was fine after he was acquired, but I don’t know how much
of his stock I want to buy.
Kevin Cash relaxed his policies a little bit last season, but he has been an ardent believer
in the TTO penalty. He doesn’t like to let his starters go too far into the game. Chris
Archer threw 201 innings last season. He has that free reign. Alex Cobb’s 179.1 innings
need to be replaced. Blake Snell isn’t very efficient. Jake Faria worked just 86.2 innings
in 14 starts and two relief appearances. Brent Honeywell is unproven, so he probably
won’t get that vote of confidence the third time through the order.
It looks like the Rays want to roll with a four-man rotation, even with the trade of Jake
Odorizzi. Those four right now are Chris Archer, Blake Snell, Jacob Faria, and Nate
Eovaldi. Eovaldi missed all of last season with Tommy John/flexor surgery late in 2016.
Archer has thrown the second-most pitches of any starter since 2014, trailing only Max
Scherzer. Jose Quintana is a pretty distant third. Snell is inefficient. Faria is a second-year
pitcher. This is a really scary proposition.
That will put a lot of strain on the bridges to Colome or it will force Cash to try and push
his starters beyond his comfort zone. It would be beyond my comfort zone, too. With
how specialized the game has gotten, I’m not very confident in Tampa Bay’s setup men
and middle relievers. Even the lottery tickets, with guys like Evan Scribner, Jonny
Venters, and Vidal Nuno don’t really make my pants any tighter.
In an even more practical sense, this is a Rays team that resides in a division with the Red
Sox and Yankees. A Rays team without much of a home field advantage. A Rays team
lacking star power in the lineup. A Rays team that is starting to build up the farm system
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and we could very well see that youth movement in full swing rather quickly. The current
placeholders are not exactly entrenched. Willy Adames is coming and he isn’t blocked.
Brent Honeywell is not blocked. Christian Arroyo is not blocked. The infusion of talent is
coming, but what will the growing pains look like?
Pick: Under 76.5 (-130; BetOnline)
I don’t know if a win is really worth 30 cents or not, but Tampa Bay has separated itself
as one of the bottom feeders in this division as far as I’m concerned. The starting rotation
has some very interesting depth, especially when Brent Honeywell makes his triumphant
debut this season, but I’m not sure what Tampa Bay’s identity is. The Rays hit 228 home
runs last season, which ranked sixth, but lost the vast majority of them with Souza (30),
Morrison (38), Dickerson (27), Longoria (20), who made up the top four, and also lost 13
with Lucas Duda, 12 with Tim Beckham, and nine each from Colby Rasmus and Derek
Norris. Souza and Morrison also had the highest walk rates aside from Brad Miller, who
walked a lot, but hit for no power.
This offense is bad. The starting rotation running as a four-man unit until May, or maybe
even until Honeywell’s Super Two deadline passes is a major concern. This is a sad state
of affairs for a team that will be trading off more assets as the season goes along. Carlos
Gomez is a rental that could have deadline value. Alex Colome is sure to go. Chris
Archer could go. I’m looking to be against that. This isn’t a top play, but the Rays don’t
inspire much confidence and I could never take the over.
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Toronto Blue Jays
Maybe the memo about the offseason didn’t make it to Canada. While most teams have
been sitting on their hands until they’re numb, the Toronto Blue Jays have been one of
the more active clubs in the league. Three new faces are slotted into their projected
starting lineup and another one is firmly entrenched on the bench as a utility infielder.
Five new additions are ready to compete for bullpen spots. At least somebody has been
busy this winter.
As we head into the 2018 season, I really like where the Blue Jays are. They’ve built a
team capable of contending for the Wild Card this season and have two prospects with a
ton of helium in Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette. Toolsy outfielders Anthony
Alford and Dalton Pompey are still in the system. Unfortunately, the Blue Jays are in the
AL East with the Boston Red Sox and New York Yankees, which is more than enough to
cast a dark cloud over the season, but this is a team that I will be watching very closely.
One thing working against the Blue Jays is how the alternate standings metrics finished
up last season. Toronto was a 76-86 team, but 72-90 by both Pythagorean Win-Loss and
BaseRuns. A lot of people like to look to those metrics when looking for regression the
following season and Toronto was on the wrong side of those numbers. That being said,
per BaseRuns, which is a standings metric derived from a context-neutral calculation of
runs scored and runs against based on individual outcomes, the Blue Jays actually should
have been -85 runs instead of -91 runs. But, as you can see, that also equates to a worse
record than what Toronto finished with.
The Blue Jays were virtually a .500 team after the first month of the season. They were
badly outscored at home, where they managed a 42-39 record. They were only 5-14 in
extra-inning games. Losing by five or more runs 27 times with only 16 such victories is a
good way to post an ugly run differential.
It was a long and winding road for the Blue Jays, who ranked 29th in position player
fWAR and had one of the worst offenses in baseball. They were also used 60 different
players and 33 pitchers, which ranked second and third, respectively, in Major League
Baseball. Only Seattle used more players overall and Jerry Dipoto has traded about 74
players since he took over.
With more stability and more depth, will the Blue Jays be a surprise team in the AL East?
Will they be a playoff contender? Will they fall completely flat? There seems to be a
difference of opinion out there about the Blue Jays, so let’s put the pieces together and
see where we should stand.
Season Win Total Odds:
5Dimes: 81.5 (-105/-115)
BetOnline: 81 (-105/-115)
Bovada: 81 (-125/-105)
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Additions: Curtis Granderson, Yangervis Solarte, Randal Grichuk, Aledmys Diaz,
Jaime Garcia, Ivan Castillo, Gift Ngoepe, Taylor Guerrieri, Deck McGuire, John
Axford, Al Alburquerque, Craig Breslow, Jake Petricka, Rhiner Cruz, Drew Muren
Losses: Mike Bolsinger, Lucas Harrell, Nick Tepesch, Brett Oberholtzer, TJ House,
Jeff Beliveau, Brett Anderson, Darwin Barney, Miguel Montero, Michael Saunders,
Cesar Valdez, Jose Bautista, Tom Koehler, Dominic Leone
As you can see, Toronto has been busy. As a fan of the Cleveland Indians, this type of
offseason makes so much sense to me. The Blue Jays are run by President Mark Shapiro
and GM Ross Atkins. This is what the Indians have done for years. They pick up a lot of
no-risk deals and non-roster invites to see who can stick. Most of those relief pitchers fall
into that category.
What is not like the Indians, at least when they were in this similar spot of being a fringe
contender, is the additions via trade of guys like Yangervis Solarte, Randal Grichuk, and
Aledmys Diaz. The Blue Jays are fortunate in that they have star power in the minor
leagues, so they can afford to trade some of those middle-of-the-road prospects to get
some proven MLB talent.
Curtis Granderson is one of my favorite free agent gambles of the offseason thus far.
He’s a consummate professional who almost always takes good plate appearances and his
power tool should play well at Rogers Centre. It doesn’t hurt to have Kevin Pillar
covering a ton of ground in center field when it comes to that roll of the dice.
Why bet the over?
I’m gonna come right out and say it. Maybe I’m letting the cat out of the bag. I really like
this team. I like the core in place and I like the offseason. I like how a lot of these players
complement each other. Certainly I’m worried about having seven over-30 players
projected for the starting lineup and two more on the bench, but this is a team full of
veteran hitters that should be better than last year’s bunch.
Quite frankly, it would be tough to be worse. The Blue Jays were a victim of bad luck.
They posted a .276 BABIP, which was the lowest in the league. To make matters much,
much worse, the Blue Jays were abhorrent with RISP. They batted .230 as a team and had
a .304 wOBA. Some of the low BABIP had to do with team speed, which isn’t a whole
lot better, but some of it also had to do with contact quality. A lot of it had to do with
luck. We’ll see if that gets fixed. Josh Donaldson’s .289 BABIP was 12 points under his
career average. Kevin Pillar was 17 points below his career average. Russell Martin was
24 points below his career average and 30 points below his 2016 campaign. Troy
Tulowitzki was 42 points below his, although, it was the same as his 2016 season. The
Coors Field effect does wacky things.
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Toronto’s best offensive player, Josh Donaldson, was limited to 113 games and 496 plate
appearances. He still managed to post a five-win season with a .270/.385/.559 slash, a
.396 wOBA, a 149 wRC+, and average defense. Donaldson is in a contract year and just
got the highest award ever in arbitration at $23 million. At 32, it will be interesting to see
how a slugger of his age is valued in the current marketplace, so it would certainly
benefit him to have another huge year. He should. He’s an elite hitter with an outstanding
walk rate and great power. Positive regression in his BABIP and K%, which was 5.4
percent higher than his 2016 season and 3.6 percent higher than his career average,
should lead to an even bigger offensive season. He would have been close to a six-win
player over a full season and he should return to at least that this season.
Justin Smoak was the only other Blue Jays position player to finish with an fWAR above
two wins. While I don’t expect a similar offensive season, with a .371 wOBA, a 132
wRC+, and 38 home runs, he should be a solid contributor. Projection systems still have
him around a .344 wOBA with a 114 wRC+. That would be about a 30-homer campaign,
as long as he can stay healthy. Don’t expect last season, but he shouldn’t actively hurt the
ballclub.
The new additions should inject some life into the offense. I’ll include Teoscar
Hernandez here, who has an interesting set of tools. He was acquired in the Francisco
Liriano deal with the Astros. Curtis Granderson is still a useful piece at 36 years of age.
Grandy has posted above average wRC+ marks every season since 2013. He’s not a good
defender anymore, but he’s not a major detriment either. He walks and hits for a bit of
power, so he fits nicely into this lineup. He’ll be an interesting table-setter at the top with
Donaldson and Smoak. Following those guys, the lineup will be lengthened with all-or-
nothing swinger Randal Grichuk. He got more of nothing than all last season with a 30.1
percent K% and 22 HR in 442 plate appearances. He’s a decent outfielder and really fits
the homer-happy environment we’re living in. He’s a good gamble in a park that is good
for power. Yangervis Solarte is more of a bat-to-ball guy with a decent power stroke.
Kevin Pillar added a bit of power last year to go along with his exceptional defense and
his decent speed. Steve Pearce is still useful on the thin side of the platoon. Aledmys Diaz
is a good insurance policy for Troy Tulowitzki. Russell Martin remains a solid defensive
catcher as the offensive profile declines. This is something of a ragtag group of players
that are all flawed in their own way, aside from Donaldson, but I think it can work. There
are platoon guys. There is decent depth. There are guys that carry a little bit of trade
value when the prospects are ready to graduate to the big leagues. I expect this offense to
be quite a bit better this season.
For right now, Jose Bautista won’t take up 686 bad plate appearances. Darwin Barney
won’t take up 362 bad plate appearances. Ryan Goins won’t take up 459 bad plate
appearances. Miguel Montero won’t take up 101 bad plate appearances. You’ve heard the
phrase “addition by subtraction”. Yeah, that’s what this is. Those four guys combined to
be worth -2.0 fWAR last season.
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Those plate appearances now go to Randal Grichuk, Aledmys Diaz, Yangervis Solarte,
and probably Luke Maile. While Maile isn’t much of a hitter, the other three should be
clear upgrades.
The bullpen has some hidden upside for me. Everybody knows about Roberto Osuna and
how good he is. Even dealing with anxiety issues last season, Osuna was a three-win
pitcher per fWAR, which is really not easy to do. He had a 3.38 ERA because of a 59.5
percent LOB%, but had a 1.74 FIP and a 2.57 xFIP. He had an exceptional K/BB ratio
with 83 strikeouts against just nine walks in 64 innings. Osuna is putting himself into the
elite category as far as closers go. Somehow he lost his arbitration case over $500,000
difference between his offer and the club’s offer. There’s a time and place for this, but no
wonder we’re in the situation we’re in.
Assuming Aaron Sanchez has better health this season, Joe Biagini should be back in the
bullpen full-time. Biagini made 18 starts and 26 relief appearances last season and really
did an admirable job swallowing up innings. The final numbers weren’t great, with a 5.34
ERA, but his 4.27 FIP and 4.11 xFIP were better than league average by a good margin.
He had 60 appearances out of the pen in 2016 with a 3.06 ERA, a 2.95 FIP, and a 3.71
xFIP. He’s a solid pitcher. Ryan Tepera was very durable with 73 appearances covering
77.2 innings of quality relief work. Aaron Loup is no Dominic Leone, who could be a big
loss for this bullpen, but he’s certainly serviceable. Loup and Avilan tied for 12th in
average exit velocity against among all pitchers with a minimum of 50 batted ball events.
What I love are the risk-free lottery tickets. Al Alburquerque hasn’t been a fixture on a
Major League roster since 2015, but he’s got a plus slider and some untapped upside. In
49 batted balls last season, he did not allow one barreled ball and had an 85.3 mile per
hour average exit velocity against. Jake Petricka, who was limited to 27 appearances in
2017 and nine appearances in 2016, has a decent arsenal that can minimize hard contact.
Native son John Axford gets a chance to pitch in Canada and he isn’t that far removed
from being a competent relief arm. There could be some solid depth here behind the
primary guys, who are very good.
I really like the starting staff. Marcus Stroman led MLB in pitches of 95+ last season and
posted a 3.09 ERA with a 3.90 FIP and a 3.58 xFIP. After missing most of 2015 and
throwing 200 innings in 2016, Stroman had some signs of wear and tear in the second
half with a drop in his K% and a spike in his BB%, but he’s a short-statured 26-year-old
that needed some time to learn how to manage his body. I would expect him to come
back stronger this season and I think we could see him finally sustain a 20 percent K%. I
like the contact profile and really like the makeup, so I think we’re looking at a kid ready
to take that next step. I think we see his first four-win season this year. The high GB% is
a beautiful attribute given the league wide trend to “elevate and celebrate”.
JA Happ is solid and reliable. He had a terrific second half after the Blue Jays opted to
keep him and he responded with a 2.81/2.62/3.58 pitcher slash over his last 67.1 innings
with 72 strikeouts. He also had a 50 percent GB% over those last two months and a
career-high 46.9 percent GB%. Again, keeping the ball on the ground is huge these days
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and Happ is coming off of a 22.7 percent K% with that improving ground ball rate. I love
that profile.
Marco Estrada is what he is. The projection systems hate him, but he’s reliable and
capable of something resembling league average work. Aaron Sanchez is the upside piece
in this rotation. Blister problems limited Sanchez to just 36 innings and he wasn’t
particularly effective in those frames. Sanchez was worth 3.8 fWAR back in 2016 over
30 starts with a 3.00/3.55/3.75 pitcher slash. The most unfortunate thing about last season
is what it did in terms of stunting his development as an MLB starter, but he’ll be plenty
fresh for this season.
The Blue Jays grabbed some cheap upside with Jaime Garcia, who is traditionally a
ground ball wizard. Garcia owns a 56.2 percent GB% over the course of his career. With
Stroman, Sanchez, and Garcia, there should be a lot of ground balls on this staff. Home
runs were way up last year, but we had the fewest number of singles in a season since
1977. As you know, fewer games were played back then. Teams don’t manufacture
innings anymore. They hit home runs. Last time I checked, you can’t hit a ground ball
home run.
Be on the lookout for Thomas Pannone if injuries pop up. The former Indians prospect
was acquired in the Joe Smith deal that also brought over toolsy infielder Samad Taylor.
Pannone really studies the craft and has a lot of pitchability as a 23-year-old left-hander.
The Jays are lacking a bit of starting pitcher depth, but Pannone could wind up throwing
some important innings for this team.
Why bet the under?
I penned a pretty compelling case for the offense, but the facts remain that this was not a
good offense last season. Many players suffered drops in the BABIP department, which
could very well be a sign of declining contact quality. The Blue Jays were in the middle
of the pack in average exit velocity, but 11th out of the 15 teams in the American League.
Curtis Granderson is in his age-37 season. Josh Donaldson is 32. Justin Smoak is 31.
Kendrys Morales, who was nowhere near what Toronto expected last season, will turn 35
later this year. Troy Tulowitzki is over 33 and is showing big signs of aging. Russell
Martin is 35. Steve Pearce will turn 35 in a few months. Ezequiel Carrera will turn 31.
Morales was actually one of the worst everyday players in baseball last season.
The aging curve is a cruel mistress. We are seeing players maintain their bodies better
and the specialization of the game with platoons hasn’t hurt. But, playing on that carpet at
Rogers Centre can be really tough on older legs. It has to be a consideration that this is
one of the oldest teams in baseball and it is a team that doesn’t have a ton of MLB-ready
reinforcements in the minor leagues just yet. Most of the top prospects are a year away
from being options. Toronto is better positioned with a guy like Aledmys Diaz coming
off of the bench in a utility role, but Diaz also slashed just .259/.290/.392. That rookie
season wound up not being sustainable. Will he be able to bounce back?
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Can Josh Donaldson stay healthy? Will Justin Smoak not completely tank? Smoak was
worth 3.4 fWAR. Over his previous SEVEN MLB seasons, he was worth a combined 0.3
fWAR. Guys typically don’t have their careers turn on a dime at 30 years of age. I am
very skeptical of Smoak coming into this season. Again, maybe he was just healthy. He
has always had a decent power stroke, but the big drop in K% was the primary catalyst
for his big offensive year. Was that health-related? Mechanical adjustments to the swing?
When (not if) he does fall off, how far does he fall?
That’s a big deal because the Blue Jays did not have a single position player outside of
Donaldson and Smoak that graded out as “average” per fWAR. Kevin Pillar was the
closest at 1.9 fWAR, but he had a .302 wOBA and an 85 wRC+, so he was saved by his
defensive prowess. Russell Martin can’t hit anymore. He still walks, but he can’t find the
barrel with a compass, a map, and a GPS. After Pillar and Martin, no other position
player even managed 0.8 fWAR. Teoscar Hernandez and Ezequiel Carrera had 0.7
fWAR. So the Blue Jays really need to create a lot of production with a full season of
Hernandez and additions like Grichuk, Granderson, and Solarte.
Tulo has posted wRC+ marks of 92, 103, and 78 in his 2.5ish seasons with Toronto, but
he only managed to stay out there for 260 plate appearances last season. It’s hard to
figure out how much to count on him, but I would say that it really isn’t very much. That
brings Diaz into the mix in a big way and I mentioned his fall from grace last season.
Things like that make me really wary of backing a team from a season-long standpoint.
My ultimate goal in every win total is to estimate what a team’s floor is and what the
team’s ceiling is. At that point, I’ll look to see where the win total line is and then decide
if I think there is enough value to make a play. The Blue Jays lineup could certainly be
better than last season. It could be a league average type of offense with a pitching staff
that I believe to be above average. A team like that has the makings of an 84 or 85-win
team. A team with Toronto’s offense from last season, well, we’ve seen what the Pyth W-
L and BaseRuns records were. Even if we add a full season of Sanchez to the mix, we’re
likely talking about a 75 or 76-win team. That is a pretty big range to try and figure out.
Aaron Sanchez has reportedly been throwing pain-free since January, so hopefully the
blister issues are in the past. Still, I need to see it to believe it. Also, I need to see if the
.247 and .267 BABIPs that he posted in 2015 and 2016 are legit. He posted ERAs of 3.22
and 3.00, but his peripherals were a lot higher than that. He’s an important piece to this
puzzle of trying to find surplus value to justify a play on the over.
I really like Marcus Stroman. The arsenal is sick and the makeup might be even better.
There are injury concerns with every pitcher, since every pitcher is throwing hurt in some
way, shape, or form, but those concerns are magnified when you’re talking about a 5-
foot-8 right-hander that led the league in pitches of 95 mph or higher. Stroman has
worked back-to-back 200-inning seasons. I mentioned that his K% fell in the second half
last year and his BB% rose. I’m not so much worried about the high HR/FB% because he
has a limited sample size of fly balls, so it’s naturally going to be high, but the 78.1
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percent LOB% with a guy that has a below average strikeout rate does sound some alarm
bells.
The tail end of this rotation does present some issues with Marco Estrada’s pixie dust no
longer working to the degree that it was. Ryan Borucki started 2017 in High-A and
finished with one start in Triple-A. The kid has a ceiling and some helium, but he
probably isn’t ready for the big time. Jaime Garcia is a replacement-level type more often
than not.
Dominic Leone was pretty clearly the second-best reliever on this team behind Roberto
Osuna. Joe Smith had 38 top-notch appearances before he was traded to Cleveland. There
are some bullpen worries here. I talked about the lottery ticket guys on the minor league
deals with the non-roster invites. There’s a reason why those guys aren’t getting
guaranteed deals. I like Joe Biagini, but Ryan Tepera has to come back from a career-
high in appearances and the most innings he has thrown since he was converted to relief
in 2013.
What a complex team. This is why I do what I do and why I write as much as I write.
Pick: Over 81 (-105; BetOnline)
As far as the AL East goes, this is my favorite win total bet. I’m willing to go down with
the ship if all over these over-30 guys are busts. The Blue Jays are a team capable of
being a seller at the Trade Deadline. The second Wild Card is the best-case scenario for
this team because the loser of the Boston/New York sweepstakes will grab home field in
the one-game playoff.
With that in mind, the Blue Jays could trade Josh Donaldson to a contender in need of
help (hi, Cleveland). They could move Curtis Granderson if he is effective. JA Happ
would be a sought-after rental starter. Ross Atkins will probably have that decision to
make. The difference here is that Toronto does have some intriguing prospects that can
get the call, like Bo Bichette or Vlad the Impaler Jr. Anthony Alford and Dalton Pompey
are close. I would like the increased athleticism of this team in the second half if that all
happens.
I really like what Toronto has done this winter. I like the starting staff. I like the bullpen.
I like this team. I think they’re in a position to surprise and be right there for that second
Wild Card with 84-85 wins. The juice is reasonable and the line is manageable.
Furthermore, one other angle I do want to point out is that sportsbooks post adjusted win
totals for the second half. Last season, for example, Detroit’s season win total was
adjusted to 76. With 75 games to play, they needed to virtually go .500 at 38-37 to get
over that. It wasn’t happening. That was an easy play. If Toronto does become a seller,
we can buy out of this at the All-Star Break and I like knowing that I’ll likely have that
option. I like them to go over the total regardless, but it’s never bad to plan ahead.
57
Chicago White Sox
The rebuilding process is not an easy one in Major League Baseball. Since 2003, we’ve
seen an NFL team go from worst to first in its division every season except for 2014. In
the NBA and NFL, players come out of college ready for the rigors of the pro ranks. In
the NHL, the development process can be stunted a little bit more, but we’re also seeing
more and more teenage players having a tangible impact for their respective teams.
Baseball is so much different. Rebuilds are painstaking and time-consuming. Teams have
to make a calculated decision to endure the three or four years that it takes to really
develop something special. It also takes a significant amount of luck for all of those
prospects to develop and for those plug-and-play free agents to fit in. The Astros lost 111
games in 2013, 92 in 2014, 76 in 2015, 78 in 2016, and then broke through to win the
World Series. The Royals lost at least 87 games every year from 2007-12, and then
finally hit the jackpot with back-to-back World Series appearances and a title in the
second one. The competitive window slammed shut almost immediately after.
The Chicago White Sox find themselves in one of those rebuilds. This has been a long
and arduous process already, but the light can finally be seen at the end of the tunnel.
This is a team that hasn’t made the playoffs since 2008 and has one winning season since
2011. Trades of Adam Eaton, Chris Sale, Jose Quintana, David Robertson, Tommy
Kahnle, and others have created one of the stronger minor league systems in baseball.
Still, as promising as this collection of youth is, the development curve from the minors
to the big leagues is steep and challenging. It is full of pitfalls.
I’m not in the business of unicorns and rainbows. I’m not in the business of blowing
undue smoke up somebody’s ass. The White Sox are going to be really bad in 2018. It
simply is what it is. A rotation anchored by James Shields and Miguel Gonzalez. A
bullpen anchored by Joakim Soria and a bunch of players with less than five years of
MLB service time and not a whole lot of high-leverage experience. A lineup with varying
upside, but not a ton of impact talent. Sometimes MLB seasons are not about wins and
losses. They are about individual development. They are about young players staying
healthy and young players getting exposed to the increased difficulty of the upper levels
of the minors or the big leagues. Wins and losses aren’t even secondary, they are tertiary.
That is the position for the White Sox as we look ahead to 2018.
Chicago was 67-95 in Rick Renteria’s first year with a Pythagorean Win-Loss of 70-92
and a BaseRuns record of 68-94. After the All-Star Break, mostly following the purge of
the bullpen, the White Sox were just 29-46. A 3-19 run immediately following the All-
Star Break basically buried the team and that was that.
Some help has arrived. Some help will arrive later this season. Some help won’t arrive
until 2019 and beyond. Expectations are very low. Are they too low?
Season Win Total Odds:
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5Dimes: 67.5 (-135/115)
BetOnline: 68.5 (-110/-110)
Bovada: 68 (-165/135)
Additions: Welington Castillo, Miguel Gonzalez, Joakim Soria, Luis Avilan, Xavier
Cedeno, Hector Santiago, Rob Scahill, Dean Anna, Patrick Leonard, Matt Skole,
Jose Rondon, Daniel Palka, Jake Elmore, Thyago Vieira, Jeanmar Gomez, Bruce
Rondon, TJ House, Gonzalez Germen, Jose Ruiz
Losses: Cody Asche, Jean Machi, Rob Brantly, David Holmberg, Rymer Liriano,
Mike Pelfrey, Geovany Soto, Jason Bourgeois, Matt Purke, Al Alburquerque, Alen
Hanson, Jake Petricka, Zach Putnam
I can assure you that these guys are all actual baseball players and not uncredited extras
from The Walking Dead. Rebuilding teams will actively seek out some veterans to plug
in that can take on a mentor role while still performing admirably, which is why the
White Sox isolated guys like Welington Castillo, Miguel Gonzalez, Hector Santiago, and
Joakim Soria. Low-risk pick-ups like Jeanmar Gomez and Bruce Rondon are a good way
to fill out the roster. Teams should acquire fringe veterans to work as the sixth or seventh
man in the bullpen.
For a team in Chicago’s position, anybody with upside should be performing in high-
leverage situations in the minors, instead of riding the pine as a rarely-used relief option
or a bench bat. That means signing some of these cast-offs to shoulder the burdens of
playing for a bad team. Guys are happy to have jobs and are hoping to stand out amongst
the flotsam and jetsam of these teams so that they can latch on somewhere else and
maybe work their way to a contender at the Trade Deadline.
It really doesn’t hurt to work with Don Cooper. The best addition for the White Sox may
have been former St. Louis Cardinals pitching coach Dave Duncan as a consultant. That
is a huge grab for the young starters in this system. If I’m a middling pitcher panicking
about a job as Spring Training games begin, I’m calling the White Sox because working
with those two would be an investment in my future.
Why bet the over?
The old adage in Major League Baseball is that you’re going to win 60, lose 60, and the
other 40 (42) decide your season. So, with that in mind, we can reasonably pencil the
White Sox in for at least 60 wins. We had some horrible teams in the AL last year and all
of them won at least 64 games. So, there’s that. The floor for a team can never be lower
than 60 games. At that point, we have to consider what the ceiling actually is. To do that,
we have to dig. We have to speculate. We have to make some educated guesses.
Let’s start with what we know about the White Sox. They actually weren’t that bad
offensively last season. Jose Abreu’s bounce back was a big reason why. Abreu slashed
.304/.354/.552 with a .377 wOBA and a 138 wRC+. Abreu’s debut season in 2014
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created some unrealistic expectations, but he bounced back nicely last year. He’ll be a
guy to watch this season because his FB% went up from 33.3 to 36.4 percent. He had a
power surge and a spike from a 14.8 percent HR/FB% to a 17.9 percent HR/FB%. He had
far and away the lowest chase rate of his career at 34.9 percent and made a lot of solid
contact. He also had one of his better defensive seasons. Abreu is a cornerstone for this
team and a pretty good piece to build around.
It seems that 26-year-old Avisail Garcia figured it all out last season. Garcia posted a 4.2-
win season, which upped his career fWAR to 3.1 (no, that’s not a typo). Garcia had a
.330 average with a .380 OBP and a .506 SLG. He had a .375 wOBA and a 137 wRC+.
He only hit 18 home runs, but was a sound offensive contributor. He also played average
defense, which was a big help. Chicago also got a 43-game boost from Nicky Delmonico,
who slashed .262/.373/.482 in his 166 plate appearances.
Yoan Moncada didn’t exactly set the world on fire offensively, but he had a
.231/.338/.412 slash, which was good for a .327 wOBA and a 104 wRC+. He walked
12.6 percent of the time and we all know that he has a high floor because he’s a good
defender. It’s a player like Moncada, who slashed .282/.377/.447 in 361 Triple-A plate
appearances last season, that can define a team’s season. As far as how many wins he’s
responsible for and how many WAR he produces, that remains to be seen, but a
developmental win for the White Sox with Moncada’s progress is one of the most
important things about this season. As such, he’ll be given every opportunity to succeed,
with placement high up in this order and his name on the lineup card regularly.
Tim Anderson had one of the worst 15/15 seasons we’ve seen in a while with a .288
wOBA and a 78 wRC+, but that power and speed combination leaves a little bit of
development in the bag. Anderson was a 2.5-win player in 2016 with nearly league
average offense and above average defense. He regressed badly in both areas last season,
his first full year in the bigs, but he may be able to return to that 2016 form.
Charlie Tilson looked awful in the Arizona Fall League after missing all of 2017, but this
is a bat-to-ball speedster that could be an interesting player at the top of the order. Tilson
slashed .282/.345/.407 in 395 plate appearances for St. Louis’s Triple-A team in 2016. He
was traded to the White Sox, made his MLB debut, went 1-for-2, and tore his left
hamstring. During his rehab, he suffered a stress fracture in his foot. For a player whose
production is defined by what his legs can do, this is a worry, but Tilson is one of those
hidden upside guys we need to consider in win totals.
Similarly, a dude like Yolmer Sanchez doesn’t jump off the page with a .313 wOBA and
a 94 wRC+, but he was so good defensively that he was a two-win player per fWAR.
New catcher Welington Castillo was terrific defensively and also posted a .282/.323/.490
slash with a .344 wOBA and a 113 wRC+. He’s a nice addition for this team as a high-
floor player. Matt Davidson hit 26 home runs, even though Lieutenant Dan post-Vietnam
War would have done more walking if he was an actual person. Tyler Saladino was one
of the worst players in baseball after a decent .313 wOBA with competent defense in
2016 over 93 games and 319 plate appearances.
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This offense has some upside to be a little bit below average, but better than last year’s
collective 94 wRC+.
So, James Shields sucks. We’ll get that out of the way right now. He has nothing to do
with this part of the article. Miguel Gonzalez isn’t great, but at least he’s something of a
serviceable arm and had the best season of his career in 2016 when he was with Don
Cooper. He’s a JAG, just a guy, but one that is decent rotation filler in today’s MLB. It is
the youngsters in this rotation that create the upside. I’m still waiting for Carlos Rodon to
be that dude (by the way, remember how highly touted this kid was coming out of NC
State. Ever hear of TINSTAAPP? There Is No Such Thing As A Pitching Prospect,
because injuries, the higher competition level, etc.). He’s only 25, but we’ll add a major
shoulder surgery to his manilla folder. He looked pretty good in his 69.1 innings last
season. The injury timeline had him back sometime over the course of Spring Training,
so we could see a May or June debut. I don’t know how much stock I want to buy, but I’ll
be purchasing some in a few months.
Anyway, as for the guys that are healthy, let’s start with Lucas Giolito. Giolito, the prized
possession of the Adam Eaton deal, was mentioned in an update from Scott Merkin of
MLB.com in early January. The Merkin article said that Giolito found a “more
comfortable mental focus at Triple-A Charlotte” that wound up coming with him to
the big leagues. Giolito wasn’t great at Triple-A, with a 4.48 ERA, a 4.44 FIP, and a 3.85
xFIP, but he struck out over a batter per inning. In seven starts with the White Sox, he
had a 2.38 ERA, but a 4.94 FIP and a 4.42 xFIP, as he got extremely lucky with balls in
play and with runners on base. Fastball command remains the reason why Giolito, who
had the best curveball in the minors per a lot of scouts a few years ago, hasn’t broken out.
Another year under the tutelage of Don Cooper, and now with Dave Duncan, can only
help.
In that same link above, GM Rick Hahn had some great things to say about Carson
Fulmer. Fulmer had all sorts of problems in Triple-A and carried a lot of them over to the
big leagues. But, again, we’re looking at a kid with a lot of success in the low minors and
college at Vanderbilt. It just hasn’t translated to the big leagues. Reynaldo Lopez is
another guy like that. He didn’t come with the fanfare of guys like Rodon, Giolito, or
Fulmer, but he has plus velocity on his fastball and really worked hard to develop a
changeup last year. It wasn’t a good pitch at the MLB level, but it was a pitch in progress.
In 22 starts at Triple-A, he had a 3.79 ERA with a 4.18 FIP and a 3.85 xFIP, so he had the
best results of the Giolito/Fulmer/Lopez rotation.
It seems almost unfair that Rodon, Giolito, Fulmer, and Lopez all have had expectations
and have all fallen short. This is what I meant in the intro about luck. The Astros and
Royals had everybody develop as once. The Astros had one of the best offenses ever in
2017 and the Royals got career years in 2015 out of all of their most important position
players. These guys clearly have talent, but whether or not they maximize it and become
polished products remains to be seen. They will go a long way in not only defining this
team’s performance in 2018, but the team’s future upside.
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The four-headed monster of frustration aside, my favorite prospect in this system is
Michael Kopech. When MLB teams have sponsors on the uniforms, they might as well
throw a Sunoco patch on Kopech. The kid throws straight f’ing fire. Kopech worked 22
games at Double-A and toyed with hitters en route to a 2.87 ERA with a 2.83 FIP and a
3.12 xFIP. He made his final three starts at Triple-A and did the same. He worked 134.1
innings, struck out 172 batters, and allowed only six home runs. We’ll see how quickly
Kopech, acquired in the Chris Sale trade with Boston, makes it to the big leagues, but he
has true front of the rotation potential if he can harness that walk rate a little bit.
Unfortunately, he may not be a big part this season.
The White Sox bullpen isn’t very impressive, to be honest. Joakim Soria returns to the
closer’s role for the first time since 2015 after a really strong season with the Royals. He
had a 3.70 ERA with a 2.23 FIP and a 3.08 xFIP. Nate Jones had nerve repositioning
surgery in July, so we’ll see how he comes back. He has been a useful reliever when
healthy. Luis Avilan has really good average exit velocities against over the last two
seasons, so I’d look for him to be a weapon. Gregory Infante was pretty solid in his 52
appearances, especially in the second half with a .221 wOBA against in his 30.1 innings
of work. This isn’t a team that will have a ton of leads to protect, so they better protect
the ones that they can.
Why bet the under?
Chicago had a decent offense last season, but it was a BABIP-fueled effort. Avisail
Garcia had a .392 BABIP, which is not sustainable at all for a player with his speed.
Garcia was 29th in average exit velocity among hitters with at least 100 batted balls, but
led MLB in BABIP by 21 points. Look for some significant offensive regression from
him. He doesn’t hit for enough power to support well above average offense with a lower
BABIP. Garcia had a .309 BABIP in 2016 with a higher walk rate than he had last season
and posted a .302 wOBA with an 88 wRC+. He had a .320 BABIP in 2015 with a .295
wOBA and an 86 wRC+. I’d expect the offensive fall to be very significant from him. In
terms of xBA (Expected Batting Average), Garcia’s .277 xBA and .330 BA created one
of the higher gaps in baseball last season. Expected batting average, as calculated by
Statcast, takes into account launch angle, exit velocity, and distance. Similarly, his
xwOBA (Expected wOBA) was .350 and his actual wOBA, per Statcast, was .385. It is
worth mentioning that Statcast (via BaseballSavant.com) and Fangraphs seem to have
different weighted values for wOBA. Either way, the fact remains that Garcia
overachieved in a big way. Even if he’s hitting his prime and maybe developing more as
a hitter, I’m expecting at least a 15-20 percent decrease in production and the door is
open for more.
I’d like to buy Jose Abreu stock and assume that he can sustain this, especially in the
Juiced Ball Era. The big spike for him was his SLG which went from .468 to .552.
Projection systems do have him regressing about eight percent to a 130 wRC+ with a
.366 wOBA. That seems fair to me. If the defense slacks back off a bit, he’ll regress to
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more of a three-win player than a four-win player in that scenario. He’s still very solid,
but may not be as solid as last season.
Omar Narvaez carried a .330 BABIP. Yolmer Sanchez carried a .321 BABIP. Yoan
Moncada carried a .325 BABIP. Tim Anderson carried a .328 BABIP. League average is
between .290 and .310. The White Sox had a .309 BABIP as a team, yet had a .313
wOBA and a 94 wRC+. Regressions in the BABIP department are really going to hurt
this team, especially because a lot of hitters in the everyday lineup don’t walk a whole
lot. There are a lot of players that could swing in opposite directions. Is Charlie Tilson
going to do anything? How will Yoan Moncada develop? Was Nicky Delmonico’s small
sample size a total fluke? After all, Delmonico had a .262/.347/.421 slash in Triple-A in
429 appearances and hit 12 home runs. He had nine in 166 PA at the MLB level.
This rotation could be a disaster. It was last season. It could be again. The loss of Derek
Holland is addition by subtraction, but the prized prospects of Lucas Giolito, Carson
Fulmer, and Reynaldo Lopez really don’t inspire a ton of confidence. Giolito is only 23,
but he has 66.2 MLB innings with disastrous peripherals and really poor strikeout rates.
He only has 34 in 45.1 innings and his subpar fastball command makes him a punching
bag for opposing hitters. Lopez has a 4.81 ERA with a 4.35 FIP and a 5.16 xFIP in 91.2
innings with a low strikeout rate. Fulmer has 35 innings under his belt with a
5.40/5.78/5.86 pitcher slash. He’s walked 20 in those 35 innings, walked 65 in 126
innings in 2017 with Triple-A Charlotte, and walked 51 in 87 innings in Double-A in
2016. He isn’t efficient and may wind up a bullpen arm. Carlos Rodon’s return is
questionable and who knows what he’ll be like following another big operation. I’m still
a believer in the stuff, but we may be looking at a middle of the rotation ceiling instead of
a front of the rotation one, which is not what you want with a guy like him.
The bullpen is pretty pedestrian beyond Soria. Gregory Infante just got his first consistent
MLB work at 30 years of age. There are a lot of marginal relievers there and the internal
depth in the bullpen is severely lacking. I’m paying a lot of attention to bullpens this
season and Chicago’s is one of the worst I’ve seen in the AL.
Chicago has a lot of prospects, but they are far away. Top prospect Eloy Jimenez is
probably a 2020 candidate. Michael Kopech probably ends the season in Chicago, but he
won’t be rushed. They’ll use and abuse a guy like Dylan Covey before they’ll bring him
up. Alec Hansen is a 2019 guy. Same with Dylan Cease. Same with Dane Dunning. Luis
Alexander Basabe is in High-A. The White Sox have a long-term rebuild going on right
now.
The AL Central isn’t very good, but the White Sox can’t pitch. Depending on how the
Royals finish up the offseason, they might be a bit better offensively. Detroit can still
swing it despite some of the recent losses. The Twins and Indians are clearly the class of
this division. Chicago’s offense is decent, but the pitching staff looks like a major
negative. That is the worst place to struggle when it comes to this division because four
of the five teams don’t have much pitching. That would be a separator for the White Sox
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if guys like Giolito, Lopez, and Fulmer could figure out, but that seems unlikely at this
point.
Pick: Under 68 (+135, Bovada)
I’ll trade the half-win at BetOnline for 45 cents at Bovada. I’m not really sure that I get it
with this team. Sure, the White Sox had a Pythagorean Win-Loss of 70-92 and PECOTA
projects them to be the tallest leprechaun of the bunch at the bottom of the AL Central
with 72 wins, but I’m really not buying it. This is not a good baseball team.
I know we want to believe in the hype of Lucas Giolito, Carson Fulmer, and Reynaldo
Lopez, but I really need to see it at the MLB level. The biggest difference in the
PECOTA projections between the White Sox and the other scrubs is that they are
projected to be pretty decent defensively, while the other two are not. I’m not really
seeing it. I’m not seeing much of anything, to be totally honest.
I outlined the reasons why Avisail Garcia, who led the team in fWAR, is going to drop
off. Todd Frazier was fourth in fWAR in just 81 games and he’s gone. I’m not a believer
in the staying power of Nicky Delmonico. I’m not ready to buy the bat of Yoan Moncada
yet. I can’t stand the starting rotation. The bullpen is really bad.
I’ve been a broken record with the AL Central, but I don’t like playing with extremes.
The White Sox are going to be bad and investing money in just how bad they will be isn’t
+EV to me. I want higher-variance teams in the middle of the pack that oddsmakers
aren’t sure about. But, if this number keeps climbing thanks to the PECOTA projection,
you can find me taking a piece of this under if it goes north of 70 wins.
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Cleveland Indians
The Cleveland Indians set the all-time record for consecutive wins with 22 during the
2017 season. They won 102 games. They finished with the best record in the American
League. They had the best pitching staff in history per Fangraphs. They also blew a 2-0
lead to the New York Yankees in the ALDS and extended their World Series drought to a
not-so-nice 69 years.
For those that don’t know, I am, unapologetically, an Indians fan. As I’ve talked about
before, my desire to learn and understand sabermetrics came from wanting to know how
the Indians made decisions. I wanted to know what they used to evaluate players. It has
served me well and it has served the team well. You can @me on Twitter if you want
(that’s @SkatingTripods, by the way), but I’ll take the Indians of 2013-17 over the
Indians of 1995-99.
One day, that will resonate more with me than it does right now. The Tournament of
Variance known as the MLB playoffs winds up defining a team’s season. It is one of my
greatest dilemmas because a 19-game sprint to a World Championship doesn’t always go
to the best team. That flag will fly forever when the Indians get one. But, what happens
over 162 games is often more impressive. The team that gets hot for four weeks wins the
World Series. The team that wins 102 games was (generally) hot for most of the six
months of the regular season. A 22-game win streak is special, in that nobody had ever
done it before. There have been 112 World Series champions as the World Series, which
started in 1903, was skipped in 1904 and 1994 because of strikes. There has been one
team that has won 22 straight games. And, yet, the bigger takeaway for me from the 2017
season is that the Indians blew a 2-0 lead in the ALDS and went home before they should
have.
As we head into 2018, the Indians have basically already won the Central Division. Sorry
to Twins, Tigers, Royals, and White Sox fans, but those are the facts. Barring the worst
run of injuries imaginable, the Indians are punching their postseason tickets sometime in
the month of September. They finished 17 games clear of the Twins last season. By
Pythagorean Win-Loss, the Indians were more like a 108-54 team and by BaseRuns, they
were more like a 107-55 team. Those two marks were easily the best in baseball.
Expectations are certainly high and they should be. Nearly 47 percent of the schedule will
be played within the division, where the Indians were 50-26. The Indians were 44-13
over the final 57 games of the season and 55-20 after the All-Star Break. They had a .654
winning percentage on the road. The division hasn’t gotten any better.
The division is a formality, but the season win total is not. This is a high number with a
slim margin for error. After all, the Indians were 47-40 at the All-Star Break last year. A
.540 win percentage in the second half would have been 87-88 wins. The schedule was
backloaded with AL Central doormats, so .540 was a low expectation, but still. This was
a team that used a 22-game win streak to put distance in the AL Central and to pole vault
to the top of the AL. Those don’t come around every day.
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While I am an Indians fan, I’m always fair and balanced in these write-ups and you’ll get
nothing less from me this season.
Season Win Total Odds:
5Dimes: 94.5 (-120/100)
BetOnline: 94.5 (-110/-110)
Bovada: 94.5 (-125/-105)
Additions: Yonder Alonso, Melvin Upton Jr., Carlos Torres, Matt Belisle, Brandon
Barnes, Rob Refsnyder, Stephen Fife, Adam Wilk, Ben Taylor, Evan Marshall, Jeff
Beliveau, Neil Ramirez, Preston Claiborne, Alexi Ogando
Losses: Carlos Santana (sigh), Jay Bruce, Austin Jackson, Boone Logan, Bryan
Shaw, Joe Smith, Tim Cooney, Carlos Frias, Craig Breslow, Kyle Crockett, Shawn
Armstrong
The optics of this offseason for the Indians have not been good. At all. They picked up
Michael Brantley’s $12 million option in a market that has been tremendous for teams
that operate on lower budgets, much like the Indians. The dead horse has been beaten ad
nauseum on Indians Twitter because the Indians do have weaknesses in the bullpen and
opted to gamble on a player with a bum shoulder, a bad ankle, and just 101 games and
418 plate appearances over the last two seasons at a price that appears to be well above
market value.
While Houston and New York have gotten noticeably stronger, the Indians have not. The
loss of Carlos Santana has been mitigated a bit by the addition of Yonder Alonso. The
losses of Bryan Shaw and Joe Smith were addressed once Spring Training already started
with the signings of Carlos Torres and Matt Belisle. As you know, I’m focusing heavily
on bullpen strength and the Indians appear thin in middle relief at this point. The losses of
Jay Bruce and Austin Jackson have allowed the holes in the SS Outfield to get even
bigger, while the front office hopes that Melvin Upton Jr. can play the Rajai Davis/Austin
Jackson role this season.
It isn’t the type of offseason that you want to see from a World Series contender that was
one-and-done in the playoffs. To be fair, the Indians had no way of knowing how the
market would crater this winter and had to make a snap call on Brantley’s option just
days after the World Series. That still doesn’t excuse the team’s inability to strengthen
the bullpen with relievers going for some really affordable deals. Speculation seems to be
that the Indians are tapped out financially, but then they’ve been in until the end on
Lorenzo Cain and continue to sniff around on Manny Machado, so who knows.
Why bet the over?
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The Indians have four of the top-15 pitchers in the American League. Corey Kluber is the
reigning Cy Young Award winner. Andrew Miller is a human cheat code. Cody Allen is
an elite reliever. Carlos Carrasco is the best pitcher in baseball that nobody talks about.
As a team last season, the Indians pitching staff posted a 3.30 ERA, a 3.33 FIP, and a
3.41 xFIP. The team’s 31.7 fWAR was the best ever tracked by Fangraphs. It was 7.3
fWAR above the next closest team in 2017, which was the Yankees. Indians pitchers
struck out 27.5 percent of batters faced, which easily led the league, AND walked the
lowest percentage of batters, which is absolutely incredible. Think about hitters that strike
out a lot. Most of them have decent walk rates because they work deep counts and see a
lot of pitches. It’s hard to strike MLB hitters out on three or four pitches and walks
generally become part of the equation. Not with the Indians. They were simply dominant.
This is what I mean about living in the moment. I know how good this pitching staff has
been, but I probably don’t appreciate it to the degree that I should. This pitching staff is
precisely the reason why I said I’d take 2013-17 teams over 1995-99 teams.
Corey Kluber is really good and somehow getting better. Kluber posted a 2.25 ERA with
a 2.50 FIP and a 2.52 xFIP. He had a career-high K% of 34.1 percent and a career-best
walk rate of 4.6 percent. His K-BB% of 29.5 percent was second to Chris Sale among
qualified pitchers and Sale became the first AL pitcher since Pedro Martinez in 1999 to
strike out 300 batters. Kluber’s mastery of the strike zone also allowed him to induce the
weakest contact of his career per Baseball Info Solutions’ Soft%, Med%, and Hard%
data. Unfortunately the formula is proprietary, but the Statcast data at Baseball Savant
backs that up, as Kluber had an 85.3 mph average exit velocity this season compared with
86 mph in 2016 and 86.8 mph in 2015. He scaled back the usage on his sinker, which is
an average to below average pitch for him, and increased the usage of his curveball,
which was a trend that we saw in the 2016 playoffs. As an aside, his slider was
reclassified as a cutter by PITCHf/x last year. There were a few classified as sliders based
on the horizontal and vertical movement, so the total percentage of cutters/sliders and
curves was north of 50 percent for the first time in his career. By lowering the usage of
his worst pitch, Kluber took that next step. Over the last four seasons, Kluber’s curveball
is 94.4 runs above average per PITCHf/x Pitch Values. Per the Pitch Values, Kluber’s
curveball was the best by more than double in baseball last year. Aaron Nola was the
closest at 18.3 runs above average. On a standardized Pitch Values per 100 pitches
(wCU/C) grading scale, only Carlos Martinez came close. Kluber also had the third-best
cutter per 100 pitches as well.
When you look at Kluber and see a .267 BABIP relative to his career .300 BABIP, you
probably assume that some regression is coming. Same thing with his 34.1 percent K%
and 27.4 percent career mark. That’s certainly a possibility, especially with the huge K%
spike, but he has changed his arsenal dramatically. He’s limited the usage of his worst
pitch and has thrown his best pitch more often. That adds to the sustainability of these
developments. Kluber is going to be an elite-level talent no matter what, but last season’s
spikes and improvements look more sustainable than I expected. His swinging strike rate
jumped three percent last season from 12.6 percent to 15.6 percent. That’s how you spike
in K%. His Z-Contact% fell to 84.8 percent. His Chase Rate (O-Swing%) jumped to 38.3
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percent. All of these things are part and parcel with the arsenal changes. Don’t be
surprised if Kluber racks up a third Cy Young.
Lost in Kluber’s Cy Young season, the 22-game winning streak, and everything else was
the fact that Carlos Carrasco also had a career year. The soon-to-be 31-year-old right-
hander had a 5.5-fWAR season and worked 200 innings for the first time in his career.
Carrasco didn’t set a K% career mark and had some BABIP misfortune, but he continued
to post a BB% under six percent and also relied a little bit more on the breaking stuff. He
had three pitches that graded out well above average, with a changeup that was 20.5 runs
above average, a curveball that was 7.4 runs above average, and a slider that was 11.6
runs above average. Had Carrasco simply posted an average fastball, he would have
really stood out. That fastball command is the only thing separating Carrasco from being
in the elite category, but he’s pretty damn close anyway. Carrasco had a 3.29 ERA with a
3.10 FIP and a 3.24 xFIP. He allowed 21 HR in 146.1 innings in 2016 and 21 HR in 200
innings in 2017. Carrasco finally avoided the freak injuries like popping a hamstring
running to first or comebackers off his head and hand. The weirdest thing for me is that
Carrasco actually threw his changeup at a lower frequency last season and it may be his
best pitch. I’m very excited about what 2018 could bring for him as long as he can stay
healthy.
Andrew Miller’s contract year is here, so the most talented reliever in Indians history will
be moving on. Cleveland has certainly gotten its value out of Miller, who has been worth
3.4 fWAR in just 83 games. Miller worked through some injuries last season, namely a
bum knee that altered his mechanics a bit and caused a big spike in his walk rate. He also
had his lowest K% since 2013, which is laughable because he still struck out 38.9 percent
of opposing hitters. Miller’s injury was a root cause of some issues, but his 2016 BB%
was actually the outlier, so what we saw from Miller last season may be more of what we
can expect, but I still think the K% climbs. Either way, he’s an elite reliever.
Cody Allen’s swan song with the Indians will also likely come this season. He’ll be a free
agent after the year and he has been one of the game’s most reliable relievers. Allen’s
consistency is remarkable. From 2013-17, he has worked an average of 72 appearances
per year with an ERA range of 2.07 to 2.99, a FIP range of 1.82 to 3.31, and an xFIP
range of 2.83 to 3.46. His K% has fallen between 29.2 percent and 34.6 percent. His
BB% has ranged between 7.5 percent and 10.2 percent. Last season was that low point at
7.5 percent, so Allen can be counted on for another strong season with that
fastball/knuckle curve mix.
One of the biggest keys to the 2017 season was the breakout of Trevor Bauer. I am a
huge Bauer fan. I love the way that he studies his craft and I find it so interesting how he
spent the offseason trying to develop a hybrid of Marcus Stroman’s slider and Corey
Kluber’s curve. Supposedly the pitch is ready to be deployed. I’m still holding out hope
to see him bust out the knuckler that he throws at the end of his long toss routine. I’m on
the Bauer train for 2018 and I think he might be one of the best secret(ish) weapons in
baseball this season.
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Bauer had a 4.19 ERA, but posted a 3.88 FIP and a 3.60 xFIP. His BABIP was out of
control in the first half and was still high by season’s end at .337. It was .292 in 2016 and
even with this season’s bad batted ball luck, his ERA was lower and so were his other run
metrics. Bauer fell four strikeouts short of a 200 season, but drove his K% up to 26.2
percent, which was a career high. He also posted an eight percent walk rate, which will
bust the myth for some that he walks too many guys. That’s right around the league
average for starters of 8.1 percent.
How much does sequencing matter? Over 400 plate appearances in the first half, Bauer
allowed a .267/.333/.454 slash. Over 349 in the second half, Bauer allowed a
.263/.324/.436 slash. He hit the Break with a 5.24 ERA. In the second half, he had a 3.01
ERA. Why? Because he only stranded 67.9 percent of runners in the first half and
stranded 87.1 percent of runners in the second half. The BABIP stayed high, but the hits
came at better times. Basically, Bauer should fall somewhere in the middle, but I’m
optimistic of the upside. Bauer’s career-best 3.2-win season was not by accident and I
think there’s clear room for growth.
Danny Salazar is a tremendous wild card for the Indians. He could be a prominent starter
in the rotation or could be a shutdown reliever as a complement to Andrew Miller.
Salazar, Mike Clevinger, and Josh Tomlin will go into Spring Training battling it out for
two spots, or so it would seem. Salazar missed a good chunk of last season, but managed
103 innings over 19 starts and four relief outings. He managed to be worth 2.2 fWAR
with a 4.28 ERA, a 3.48 FIP, and a 3.21 xFIP. He had BABIP issues as well as some
walk rate issues for the second straight season. Salazar’s health has been the primary
thing to hold him back, but he possesses an elite split-change that is one of the best in
baseball over the last three years despite the injuries. I don’t know what the plan is for
him, but he’ll be a weapon somewhere.
Clevinger posted a 3.11 ERA with a 3.85 FIP and a 4.05 xFIP in his 121.2 innings of
work. Like seemingly every arm the Indians put out there, Clevinger missed a high
percentage of bats and had a 27 percent strikeout rate. The big thing for him is contact
management. Clevinger induced a ton of weak contact last year, which allowed him to
carry a .273 BABIP against and overcome a 12 percent walk rate. We’re placing more
emphasis on contact management in the Statcast era and guys that can miss the barrel are
extremely valuable in today’s homer-happy MLB. Clevinger did allow 13, but had a very
respectable 11.9 percent HR/FB%. At worst, he’s a back end of the rotation guy that
should give the Indians average or better innings.
I have a soft spot in my heart for Josh Tomlin. In this era of velocity and specialization,
Tomlin is a throwback. He wouldn’t break a grape in a fruit fight, but he knows it. He
embraces it. He changes speeds, he mixes pitches, he battles, he fights. Ironically, as
MLB was undergoing a massive launch angle revolution that led to dingers, dingers, and
more dingers, Tomlin had his lowest HR/9 since 2011 and his lowest HR/FB% since
2012. Like Kluber, Tomlin’s CB has become a more prominent pitch. Last year’s 24
percent usage was far and away a career high and the pitch comfortably graded above
average. You have to remember that the league average FIP and xFIP for starters is now
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in the 4.40-4.50 range. Tomlin, despite a 4.98 ERA, had a 4.12 FIP and a 4.11 xFIP. He
was the victim of a .329 BABIP against and a 68.5 percent LOB%. He was technically
above average for the Indians in his 141 innings last season. So the Indians have at least
two elite starters and four above average starters for the rotation.
That’s good because the middle relief looks like the weakest part of the team. Nick
Goody impressed me last year in his 56 appearances with a 2.80/3.45/3.74 pitcher slash
and a 32.6 percent K%. Tyler Olson, who didn’t allow a run over 30 appearances, tied for
the eighth-lowest exit velocity against minimum 50 batted ball events (Andrew Miller
was second, btw). Ryan Merritt, who has to either make the rotation or the bullpen, was
18th in that department. Zach McAllister had over a strikeout per inning and may see
some more leverage work this season. He had a 2.61 ERA but a 3.77 FIP and a 4.04
xFIP, so he was an above average relief arm in his 62 innings. There are some good
pitchers here, but replacing Bryan Shaw and replicating his durability will likely be a
joint effort.
The additions of Carlos Torres and Matt Belisle illustrate what the Indians are going for
in the bullpen. Elite weapons like Andrew Miller and Cody Allen don’t come around
everyday. Finding guys that have the command skills to miss the barrel are essential.
Torres was fourth in average exit velocity against and Belisle was 31st in average exit
velocity against if we set a minimum of 150 batted ball events from the 2017 season. The
Indians are looking for contact management skills out of the bullpen. It makes sense.
Even the hardest throwers can give up dingers. Teams aren’t manufacturing innings
anymore. Relievers get hurt by the home run. So the Indians, who are often ahead of most
trends, are focused on guys that don’t do that because they stay off the barrel.
So, the Indians offense is pretty solid, too. With a .336 wOBA last season, the Indians
tied for second and stood alone in third place with a 107 wRC+. They were tied for third
with a 9.7 percent BB%. The scary thing is that the Indians offense could have been even
better. Cleveland was second to the Astros in plate appearances with a runner in scoring
position, but 20th in wOBA. Cleveland’s .279 BABIP with RISP tied with the Padres for
26th in baseball. Mind you, this was an Indians team that still finished sixth in runs
scored. The Indians won 22 games in a row, won 102 games, had the best record in the
AL and still could have been even better.
Say what you will about the offseason, with the losses of Carlos Santana, Jay Bruce, and
Austin Jackson, but this is still a pretty good offense. Who knows if Jose Ramirez can be
a 6.6-win player against, but he was pretty special last season. JRam probably won’t post
a .396 wOBA again and a 29-homer season would catch me by surprise, but he’s
certainly capable of carrying a high batting average, OBP, and SLG because he’s got
excellent speed and great contact skills. He has 104 doubles over the last two seasons to
go along with 40 home runs and 39 stolen bases. He contributes in a lot of ways and he
has been an average or better fielder at two infield positions. He’s also signed to one of
the best contracts in baseball. It is perfectly reasonable to regress his numbers, which the
projection systems have, but he’s still a .360 wOBA and a 125 wRC+ type of guy. Only
43 players had a .360 or better wOBA last season. Add in his defense and speed and his
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floor is a 4.5-win player with a lot of room for more. Ramirez had a Statcast xwOBA of
.351, but an actual wOBA of .406, so he is definitely a guy to watch in that regard, but
the floor is high.
Francisco Lindor is a franchise building block. I’ve said this before, but as good of a
player as Lindor is, he is an even better human being. He has become the face of this
franchise before he can even rent a car without a surcharge. Last year’s power spike took
me by surprise in a big way. He sacrificed some BABIP to hit dingers and improve his
launch angle. Lindor’s FB% increased by 14 percent last season and the home runs came
with it. He hit 33 of them. His K% and BB% were exactly even to 2016, so he hit for
more power without sacrificing contact. Some positive regression in his BABIP should
be coming, especially with his speed and contact quality, so I think we’re looking at a
career-best offensive year from the 24-year-old. He should be a six-win player for the
Indians once again and this may be the season in which he breaks out and does more.
He’s a special talent and a special person. I don’t want to get sentimental in these because
I want to sound as impartial as possible, but it is a true honor to watch him play.
Edwin Encarnacion is tough for me to figure out. I’ll talk more about it in my glass half-
empty approach, but he had another strong season in 2017. Eddie’s walk rate jumped
from 12.4 percent to 15.5 percent. His SLG did drop from .529 to .504, as he hit four
fewer home runs and had 14 fewer doubles. His 104 walks was a career high, so that
made up for a few of the extra bases lost, but obviously not in the SLG department. He’s
an everyday DH for the most part now, so his fWAR will reflect the fact that he’s not a
capable fielder, but he’s a good bat in the middle of this lineup.
As far as the rest of the offense goes, it is kind of hard to gauge. Jason Kipnis is just one
year removed from posting 4.9 and 4.8 fWAR in the previous two seasons. Injuries
limited him to 90 games and 373 plate appearances. He also switched positions to fill the
glaring hole in center field left by Bradley Zimmer’s broken hand. Kipnis had no contact
quality to speak of with a .256 BABIP and a .232/.291/.414 slash line. But, he’s had three
four-win seasons in his career and a season with 3.4 fWAR, so there is a lot of potential
there for average to above average defense and a 115-120 wRC+. That would be a huge
boost for this lineup.
Much has been made of the Michael Brantley option that seems to have strapped the
Indians’ financial resources this season. Brantley posted a .299/.357/.444 slash in 375
plate appearances last season and managed 1.6 fWAR in just 90 games. Similar
production would more than validate the cost of the $12 million option, even in this
market, where $/WAR has gone down in free agency. Another question mark in the
outfield is Bradley Zimmer. Zimmer is a high-floor player because he is an excellent
baserunner and fielder, but his offense is a major unknown. Zimmer strikes out a ton and
didn’t walk enough to make up the gap last season. He also showed very little power with
a .385 SLG. But, the defense and the baserunning would put his floor around two wins,
so any offensive gains are a bonus.
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Neither Yan Gomes nor Roberto Perez project to be average offensively, but both are
above average catchers. Indians catchers gunned down 43 percent of would-be base
stealers last season. Cleveland also had the sixth-fewest wild pitches and was one of nine
teams with fewer than 10 passed balls. Perez is also a tremendous pitch framer. Given the
stuff the pitchers on this staff possess, those wild pitch and passed ball numbers are
exceptional.
Yonder Alonso is another question mark. Alonso used the fly ball revolution to post the
best season of his career with a .266/.365/.501 slash line, 28 dingers, a .366 wOBA and a
132 wRC+. Unfortunately, he hit 20 of his 28 HR in the first half and only had eight
doubles, so the power production fell off dramatically. As a result, he was available at a
pretty cheap price. He’s got a pretty high offensive floor because he walks and is also
now in a better park for left-handed power, so there are a lot of reasons to be excited.
I have long-winded takes on Francona that I’ll save for another day, but it is hard to argue
the results that he has produced with this collection of talent. He is very good behind the
scenes, which is something I’m obviously not privy to and I also can’t quantify what that
means, so it’s hard to for me to focus on. Players love playing for him and that seems to
have had an impact on this run. Since we aren’t really sure how to quantify managers
anyway, it certainly seems like the Indians are in good hands and he has to be respected
as one of the game’s best.
Why bet the under?
If you’re still reading nearly 4,400 words into this, you’re the real MVP. I just start
writing and I can’t stop. As bad as the Central Division is, and, believe me, it’s
baaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaad, this is a lofty season win total for any team. The
Indians were just 47-40 going into the All-Star Break last year with what was most likely
a better roster and a similarly bad division. At that point, they were on pace to win 87 or
88 games. A 22-game win streak can cover up a lot of early-season inconsistencies and
that is precisely what happened.
To play the over, you’re asking a team with a ticket punched to October before pitchers
and catchers even reported to play at a high level all season. Last year, the Indians pushed
their chips in and kept playing hard to get the #1 seed and home field advantage. Instead
of drawing the Red Sox, the Indians drew the Yankees and got bounced right away. I’m
not sure if the plans will change this season or not. Corey Kluber ran out of gas in the
playoffs after a deep run in 2016 and another 200-inning season in 2017. Jose Ramirez
seemed to run on empty in the playoffs. Do the Indians adopt a bit different of an
approach this season in that they try to hold some energy back for the postseason? Let’s
be very clear. You’re asking a team to play about .586 ball over six months to get you on
the plus side of this line. That requires a remarkable amount of consistency and a lot of
health.
Speaking of health, even though Michael Brantley and Jason Kipnis missed good chunks
of the season, the Indians only used 20 pitchers last season and 41 players total. Colorado
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also only used 41 players and was a bit of a surprise playoff participant. The Indians were
incredibly lucky to use only 20 pitchers. Seattle used 40. League average was around 25.
Depth is a bit of a concern for the Indians this season. They don’t have any in the
outfield. They can move somebody like Jose Ramirez around in case of injury to
Francisco Lindor or Jason Kipnis, but that would bring a below average player into the
mix at another position. Beyond Mike Clevinger and/or Josh Tomlin is Ryan Merritt,
who is a pitchability left-hander that would likely struggle over an extended stint. Behind
him, there isn’t a whole lot of MLB experience with guys like Adam Plutko, Shawn
Morimando, or Julian Merryweather, who has more of a bullpen profile anyway. We
could see Shane Bieber, who has outstanding control metrics in the minors, but he’s
unproven.
The biggest depth issues are in the bullpen. I’ve been harping on bullpens thus far and
will continue to do so. The Indians are much weaker in a relief capacity than they have
been in the past. Maybe Cody Anderson comes back from Tommy John and proves he
can be in that role, but an injury to Andrew Miller or Cody Allen would now be
catastrophic. As it is, guys like Nick Goody, Zach McAllister, Carlos Torres, Matt
Belisle, and Dan Otero have been promoted to the leverage spots once held by Bryan
Shaw. The weakest position in the organization from a depth standpoint is the bullpen.
Unless the Indians get surprising efforts from the Alexi Ogandos, Evan Marshalls, and
Neil Ramirezes of the world, they’ll have to move some starters around and try to find
some workable arms for the bullpen. Trades are always a possibility, but the bullpen is a
worry for me in a lot of ways. Miller was hurt last year. Allen has stayed remarkably
healthy, but his five-year workload has been very high. Only Bryan Shaw and Tony
Watson have made more appearances since 2013. Andrew Miller is 34th on that list.
The outfield is a hodgepodge of dudes at this point. Nobody knows what to expect from
Michael Brantley, who isn’t expected to be ready for Opening Day after his 67th surgery
in the last three years. Bradley Zimmer has a high floor as a defensive player and a
runner, but his offensive profile is still a great unknown at the MLB level. Greg Allen is a
speedster with a light offensive profile. Lonnie Chisenhall quietly posted a .369 wOBA
last season, but only played 82 games with various injuries. Jason Kipnis may be an
outfielder or may be a second baseman. He also may be neither. I mentioned Kipnis’s
four good years, but he also had a 2014 season with a .289 wOBA and an 82 wRC+ and
then last year’s poor showing. We honestly don’t know what to expect from him and he
may not even be a league average player.
Edwin Encarnacion is a weird one for me. He’s going to hit, but to what degree.
Encarnacion fell to 2.5 fWAR last season, his lowest mark since 2011. Part of that wasn’t
his fault because what he does well became something that everybody does well in
today’s homer-happy environment. He carried a career-high walk rate of 15.5 percent,
which I’m not sure is sustainable. His 20-point OBP spike canceled out his 25-point SLG
drop. Apparently the parrot weighed down Encarnacion’s ability to get to second base, as
he only had 20 doubles last season, which represented the big drop in BsR, Fangraphs’s
all-encompassing Baserunning metric. Since he can’t play a position, resembling
something of a league average runner is a big help to his overall WAR. Encarnacion has
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struck out over 19 percent of the time in his last two seasons, which is something he
hadn’t done since 2009. He is on the wrong side of the traditional aging curve, so I am
concerned that there could be a drop offensively.
In a vacuum, that wouldn’t be bad, but I worry about the same with Jose Ramirez, who
doesn’t really have the offensive profile of a guy with a .390 wOBA. Projection systems
are regressing his offensive profile to his 2016 season, which certainly wasn’t bad with a
.312/.363/.462 slash line. I can’t see an MVP-caliber season for JRam again, but he’s still
going to be a very valuable player. This is more of a matter of a bunch of small parts
adding up to a greater sum in the regression department. Again, keep in mind, you have
to nitpick with a team that has to win at least 95 games. If elite players fall back to great
players or great players fall back to good players or good players fall back to average
players, that snowball effect matters in the grand scheme of things with a win total.
Pick: Over 94.5 (-110, BetOnline)
As I mentioned with both the Tigers and the Royals, playing season win totals with the
extremes is not something that I’m interested in for the most part. There isn’t a whole lot
of equity in asking the far and away best team in the division to be far and away the best
team in the division. The Indians will win at least 90 games and it probably won’t even
take that many to win the division. How far they want to push it is something I don’t
want to wager money on.
Look, this is a top-three team in the American League. The Indians are right there with
the Yankees and the Astros. PECOTA pegs them for 99 wins. Fangraphs has them with
93, which is one behind the Yankees and eight behind the Astros, who are just absurd.
The Indians aren’t coming off of a short offseason. They aren’t coming off of a “let’s
hold our heads high” Game 7 loss to the Cubs. They’re pissed off about blowing a 2-0
lead. They’re as motivated as any team in baseball.
What does that mean, though? What does that mean in a division where the other four
teams could easily finish below .500 (and before you get started on Minnesota, PECOTA
had 80 wins and the season win total is only 83 wins, so it isn’t a stretch)? I don’t know.
What I do know is that the Indians will be very good. I’d rather bet on them to stay
healthy and fly over this win total with more than half of it coming from the 76 division
games than go low. If the Indians win 50 of the 76 games against a horrible division for
the second straight year, they have to go 45-41 against the rest of the league. That really
doesn’t seem very challenging.
The better bet with the Indians is to play them at 8/1 or higher to win the World Series.
They’re going to win the division. They’re going to play October baseball. At that point,
you can start hedging if you want. If you want some money on this team long-term, that’s
the way to play it.
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Detroit Tigers
How do we define an owner in sports? Are you a good owner if you spend a ton of
money in search of a championship? Philanthropy? Avoid meddling? Let the GM and the
front office make decisions? Is it simply a matter of leaving things better than you found
them? Is it a title? Sustained contention?
Quite frankly, everybody probably has a different definition. That brings us to Mike
Ilitch. Ilitch died last February after serving as the owner of the Detroit Tigers from 1992
until his passing. His family has since taken over the team. He was also the owner of the
Detroit Red Wings from 1982 until his passing, during which the Red Wings constructed
one of the longest playoff appearance streaks in pro sports history, won four Stanley
Cups, and the city became “Hockeytown”. A new arena for the Detroit Pistons and the
Red Wings bears the sponsorship name of Ilitch’s Little Caesars Pizza. The tributes and
the ceremonies following Ilitch’s death certainly conveyed what he meant to the city and
the franchises that he owned.
In 2018, however, the Detroit Tigers are in crisis. This is a situation that many saw
coming long before it actually arrived. As teams around the league focused on getting as
much surplus value and equity out of contract signings as possible, the Tigers spent
frivolously in free agency and doled out contract extensions that would cripple the
franchise’s financial flexibility for years to come. All in search of a title and all in a quest
to keep what was a flawed team together.
This isn’t to say that all of the problems fall on Ilitch, who had no problem filling out the
checks. General Managers, including Dave Dombrowski, have played a huge role in
creating the mess that is the Tigers. Following a 64-win season, which marked the fewest
number of wins for the team since the 43-119 season in 2003, the scramble is on to both
salvage something for the bad contracts and replenish the farm system. At this point, it is
a Herculean task and one that will play out before our very eyes this season and beyond.
Credit to Al Avila for getting a decent head start last season with the trades of Justin
Verlander, who became a World Series hero for the Astros, Justin Upton, JD Martinez,
his own son Alex Avila, and Ian Kinsler. All of the sudden, the Tigers only have two
over-30 players in the projected starting lineup and two in the projected starting rotation.
It won’t be pretty in the Motor City this year, but how miserable and depressing of a
season will it be at Comerica Park? Let’s find out, shall we?
Season Win Total Odds:
5Dimes: 67.5 (120/-140)
BetOnline: 67.5 (-110/-110)
Bovada: 68.5 (125/-155)
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Additions: Leonys Martin, Alexi Amarista, Francisco Liriano, Victor Reyes, Mike
Fiers, Travis Wood, Derek Norris, Brayan Pena, Edwin Espinal, Ronny Rodriguez,
Pete Kozma, Niko Goodrum, Ryan Carpenter, Johnny Barbato, Enrique Burgos,
Phillippe Aumont, James Russell
Losses: Ed Mujica, Anibal Sanchez, Andrew Romine, Alex Presley, Tyler Collins,
Bryan Holaday, Omar Infante, Steven Moya, Efren Navarro, Brendan Ryan, Bruce
Rondon, Ian Kinsler
Why bet the over?
When expectations are this low in a pretty popular market, that is a team that is highly
scrutinized. The changing of the guard in the American League Central happened a while
ago, but the Tigers were often thought to be a tough out and won the division crown as
recently as 2014. There are always overreactions to the trading of household names. Yes,
Justin Verlander, Justin Upton, and Ian Kinsler are all great players. The writing was on
the wall for the Tigers long before they were moved. This was a Tigers team that went
17-40 over the last two months of the season when the rebuild started and was officially
in motion by the 6-23 month of September. Up until that point, the Tigers weren’t great,
but they were a semi-respectable 39-48 with a -31 run differential in the first half. We’re
talking about one of the lowest season win total lines on the board and a team that totally
tanked once trading began.
I guess we’ll start with the lineup as we try to put together a case for the Tigers to go over
the win total. There are some really interesting players here. Nick Castellanos had a
pretty strange season. He followed up a solid 2016 campaign by posting a .272/.320/.490
slash line with a .341 wOBA and a 111 wRC+. That was a good effort for a player that
got moved from third base to the outfield during the year. He was horrible defensively in
both places, but it can be a challenging thing for hitters to switch positions and keep
performing at the plate.
The reason why Castellanos had to move is because of Jeimer Candelario. The 24-year-
old was the centerpiece of the trade that sent Justin Wilson and Alex Avila to the Cubs. In
106 plate appearances with the Tigers, Candelario slashed .330/.406/.468 with a .379
wOBA and a 137 wRC+. He has always shown good walk rate in the minor leagues and
decent contact quality. That’s not to say that a 137 wRC+ is coming this season, but he
did have a 122 wRC+ in Triple-A over 330 plate appearances in the Cubs system last
year. He slashed .333/.417/.542 in Triple-A in 2016. I actually like him as a hitter. We’ll
see what the defensive metrics wind up showing, but I do think Candelario will be a
potent hitter for this club.
The fall of Miguel Cabrera has been pretty painful to watch. Cabrera, who turns 35 in
April, had 529 plate appearances in his worst offensive season ever. Take away Miggy’s
rookie year in 2003 and he had posted at least a 129 wRC+ in 13 straight seasons. He’s
38 home runs away from 500. He’s a career .317/.395/.553 hitter. Last season, Cabrera
still walked at a decent clip, but the power was gone and the contact quality went with it.
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He posted a BABIP below .310 for the first time in his career. He posted a SLG below
.512 for the first time since his rookie year. I don’t know how much is left in the tank, but
Cabrera has played through injuries each of the last several seasons. Projection systems
are somewhat bullish on a bounce back. I don’t know. I know that he is a top-three right-
handed hitter in my lifetime with Albert Pujols and Manny Ramirez. Is any semblance of
vintage Miggy in there? I don’t know. I know that we’re only one year removed from a
4.8-win season with a .399 wOBA and a 152 wRC+. I like to think that something in
between 2016 and 2017 is possible. That would certainly go a long way in helping this
team and this pitching staff.
Mikie Mahtook was a nice little addition last year. Mahtook suffered a pretty bad groin
strain late in the year, but still managed a .276/.330/.457 slash with a .335 wOBA and a
107 wRC+ in 379 plate appearances. He showed a bit more power against lefties, but had
nearly identical wOBA and wRC+ marks against both sides. Defensive runs saved wasn’t
a fan, but UZR was a little more favorable towards his performance. Leonys Martin isn’t
much of a hitter, but he’ll play a better defensive center field than last year’s options. He
had a three-year run in Texas with 45 DRS from 2013-15 and was +5 last year.
Jose Iglesias can’t really hit, but he’s a plus defender at shortstop. James McCann is an
adequate offensive catcher. The lineup has a tiny bit of upside, especially if Cabrera can
return to being a decent hitter.
As a team, the Tigers had a 5.36 ERA, but a 4.73 FIP and a 4.87 xFIP. Detroit had a 67-
95 Pythagorean Win-Loss record, which was three games better than their actual record,
but a 69-93 BaseRuns record. They were actually five games worse than they should
been in that metric. When you see a team ERA that high with metrics that are lower, it is
generally a sign that the Tigers got a bit unlucky. The Tigers had the highest BABIP
against in baseball at .320. Part of that was bad defense, which has been addressed to an
extent, but another part of that was bad luck. The Tigers pitching staff had a 39.4 percent
ground ball percentage. Fly balls are obviously hurtful because they go for extra-base
hits, but they also go for hits less often than ground balls. To carry a .320 BABIP is pretty
outlandish. There was a lack of talent on this staff to be sure, but the Tigers had a team
xwOBA against of .331 and their actual wOBA against was .351. To be fair, a .331
xwOBA was still the second-highest in baseball, but the Tigers deserved a mildly better
fate.
The best pitcher in fWAR for the Tigers last season is still around. That gentleman is
Michael Fulmer, who posted a 3.83 ERA with a 3.67 FIP and a 4.24 xFIP in 164.2
innings of work. It was a weird season for Fulmer. He stayed well below the league
average HR/FB% rate, which was good and is the reason why his xFIP was so high. He
also saw a big drop in strikeouts, which hurt him badly in terms of stranding runners.
Fulmer’s LOB% fell to 65.6 percent. When you look at Fulmer’s 2016, when he stranded
79 percent of runners, he had a 3.06 ERA with a 3.76 FIP and a 3.95 xFIP. Both years, he
did a great job with contact management that led to low BABIPs against. I actually like
Fulmer a lot moving forward. The projection systems don’t understand that some guys
with elite contact management can carry low HR/FB% marks. If Fulmer’s LOB%
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regresses back to a league average level, a 3.50 type of ERA with a 3.80 FIP isn’t out of
the question. If his strikeout rate comes back up, that would be a huge help as well.
Fulmer’s 16.9 percent K% isn’t ideal in today’s MLB. His swinging strike rate was 1.1
percent lower because he had fewer swings and misses in the zone. His first-pitch strike
rate was the same. His Z-Contact% of 89.3 percent was 16th in all of baseball. It isn’t a
terrible thing, since guys like Jose Quintana and Marcus Stroman actually had higher Z-
Contact% marks. It just means that contact management is so important. As long as
Fulmer can continue to do a good job with that, he can succeed. That’s where plus
command plays such a huge role. He should be good for another three-win season as the
unquestioned ace of the staff.
Matt Boyd is an interesting name. The full-season numbers weren’t great, as he posted a
5.27 ERA with a 4.51 FIP and a 5.01 xFIP. But, FIP is a huge component of Fangraphs’s
WAR calculations for pitchers and 4.51 was basically league average. So, he was worth
1.9 fWAR. As the Tigers fell completely into the tank, Boyd was busy having a great
month of September. He posted a 2.95 ERA in 36.2 innings of work with a
.216/.278/.381 slash against and a .284 wOBA against. Is it sustainable? It’s hard to tell
from such a small sample size, but Boyd has shown flashes in the past of being at least an
adequate back of the rotation arm. After a hellacious start to the year in April and May,
Boyd returned after the All-Star Break and posted a 4.97 ERA with a 4.33 FIP and a 4.90
xFIP. He struck out 73 in 79.2 innings and fell victim to some unfortunate sequencing
with a 67.3 percent LOB%. Guys with 33.5 percent GB% marks usually don’t allow a
.310 BABIP either. If Boyd can improve his contact profile, there might be something
here.
Mike Fiers, Jordan Zimmermann, and Daniel Norris will make up the rest of the rotation.
Fiers and Zimmermann are what they are. They are veteran hurlers that can munch
innings. The only upside guy of the bunch is Norris, who is only 24 years old. He had a
3.38/3.93/4.00 pitcher slash in 2016 and then fell backwards last year with a 5.31 ERA, a
4.39 FIP, and a 5.06 FIP in 101.2 innings. It was a weird season for Norris with injuries.
He could very well wind up an average pitcher with some better fortunes.
Shane Greene slots into the closer’s role with Justin Wilson gone. Alex Wilson will be
the primary setup man. This isn’t really that great of a bullpen, but Greene is decent.
The Tigers should be a little more positive of a ballclub with Ron Gardenhire back in the
skipper’s chair. I’m going to be blunt here. Brad Ausmus seemed like a dick. He
orchestrated media stories about teams stealing signs and had an overall negative
demeanor from what we could see with the team. Gardenhire is the polar opposite.
Gardenhire has been actively trying to embrace more analytics after getting a deeper
appreciation for them with the Diamondbacks coaching staff last season. The 60-year-old
endured some tough seasons with the Twins, so he knows what he’s in for with this
process and his patience with the younger players and pitchers should be a big help.
Why bet the under?
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There are a lot of reasons. Let’s start with the middle of the order. Miguel Cabrera’s
downward spiral is a major cause for concern. Cabrera will be paid $30 million per
season until the end of time. Okay, so it will actually be until 2013, with two option years
that are never going to get picked up. He’ll make $30 million this season and through
2021 until the contract bumps up to $32 million in 2022 and 2023. Woof. He’s been hurt.
Comerica Park has hurt him in a big way. He slashed .230/.288/.342 in the second half of
the season. His exit velocity was embarrassing as his health deteriorated. Cabrera has had
various lower body injuries, but he’s also dealt with herniated discs in his back. By the
end of the season, as I watched Miggy, he became a guess hitter. He was cheating on
fastballs. Pitchers had taken notice. I have a hard time believing that 2018 becomes
anything different for him. He may start out fine and look something like the Cabrera of
old, but I’d expect him to fall off by the summer months.
I will forever love Victor Martinez. I am not ashamed to say that I cried the day that the
Indians traded him and cried again when I saw the video of him openly weeping in his
locker. It became about more than baseball last season when Victor had to be treated for
an irregular heartbeat. He’s been given a clean bill of health from that, but the skills have
deteriorated. In 2015, he was awful with a .286 wOBA and a 77 wRC+. In 2016, he
picked it back up with a .351 wOBA and a 119 wRC+, but last season he had a .303
wOBA and an 85 wRC+. This is the last year of his $17 million dollar a year deal. He’s
39 years old. I think this is about it for VMart. He still draws walks and still puts the ball
in play, but not with a whole lot of authority anymore.
Jeimer Candelario was great in a small sample, but buyer beware. Candelario had a .392
BABIP in that span. His 17 percent K% doesn’t have any real hint of sustainability
because those were his best years in the minors and Major League pitching is better.
Candelario has never really hit for much power at any level either. He did hit 18 HR last
season across Triple-A and the bigs, but the Pacific Coast League is a haven for hitters
and 12 of those 18 HR came in 330 PA with the Cubs’ Triple-A affiliate. Similarly, I’m
not really ready to buy into Mikie Mahtook, who struck out a lot in the upper minors and
in his previous MLB stints.
Jose Iglesias can pick it, but he can’t hit it. He posted a .283 wOBA and a 71 wRC+. The
top three position players in fWAR were Justin Upton, Ian Kinsler, and Alex Avila.
They’re all gone. Leonys Martin is a bad hitter. JD Martinez had a big say in Detroit’s
early-season offense and he’s gone.
Michael Fulmer is coming off of ulnar transposition surgery. It is the same procedure that
Jacob deGrom had in September 2016 and he was fine, but you never know with these
kinds of procedures. Fulmer is also working on some pretty razor-thin margins where any
drop of command will cripple his effectiveness. He doesn’t miss enough bats. Jordan
Zimmermann is horrible. That was a brutal signing and one of those ones that happened
on Ilitch’s watch that really needs to be talked about for what it is. Zimmermann has a
5.60 ERA in 265.1 innings with the Tigers and a 4.88 FIP. He’s making $24 million this
season and $25 million the next two seasons. Oops.
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Mike Fiers really isn’t very good either and the launch angle revolution hurt a dude that
throws in the upper 80s with no margin for error and a penchant for giving up gopher
balls anyway. Matt Boyd and Daniel Norris still have some upside, but they need to
prove it. Francisco Liriano is in this starting rotation, which is a sign of just how bad
things really are. Also, it is a pretty sad commentary on what the Tigers think of Daniel
Norris that they’d entertain bumping him from the rotation for Francisco Liriano. Even if
he pitches out of the pen, it is still a cry for help.
The bullpen is not good. The Tigers bullpen combined for -1.2 fWAR last season with a
5.63 ERA, a 5.10 FIP, and a 5.01 xFIP. Justin Wilson was the best reliever and he’s gone.
Shane Greene is adequate, but he has a high walk rate. Alex Wilson pitches to contact as
a setup man, which is terrifying. This is one of the worst bullpens in the American
League.
The Tigers were -69 defensive runs saved last season. Justin Upton and Ian Kinsler were
the two best defenders in that department and they are both gone. This is a pretty poor
defensive ballclub, which adds pressure to a pitching staff that doesn’t strike out very
many hitters. Even Fulmer, who is technically the staff ace, had the 11th-lowest K%
among qualified starters. Zimmermann didn’t qualify for the ERA title, but if we lower
the threshold to 100 innings, you’ll see his name eighth on the list.
Not missing bats is a cardinal sin in today’s MLB. As you can see, it’s a pretty big deal
with a Tigers team that can’t field. With some of the assets lost to trades, it will be hard
for the Tigers to outhit their mistakes and shortcomings.
There aren’t a whole lot of assets left to move, but you can bet that Al Avila will be
looking to deal whenever possible. Miguel Cabrera’s albatross deal is stuck, but maybe
the Tigers can find a taker for the escalating cost of Nick Castellanos. There is only $69
million committed to the books for next season in Cabrera and Zimmermann plus the
costs of trading Prince Fielder and Justin Verlander. Financial flexibility is coming, but
the Tigers farm system still isn’t very good because the assets they’ve had to offer have
capped ceilings because of the dollars still owed.
It is a pretty ugly state of affairs in Detroit.
Pick: Under 67.5 (-110; BetOnline)
Ugly enough to consider an under with this team. Here’s the thing, though. I don’t see a
lot of value in playing season win totals with the extremes, unless I’m going over a low
total or under a high total. I like to find teams in the middle, where there are some high-
variance ballclubs, and get my edges that way.
I know that the Tigers are going to be bad. I’m really not interested in investing money
on exactly how bad they are going to be. In order to win this bet, I have to bet on a team
to lose 95 games. Two teams did that in the AL last season. One team did that in the AL
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in 2016. Zero teams did that in the AL in 2015. One team did that in 2014. You get the
idea. There is very little equity in a bet like this.
Maybe this is a situation that I’ll revisit in the second half, much like I did last year by
playing Detroit’s win total under at the All-Star Break. For now, I just know that they’re
going to be really bad and I’ll leave it at that.
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Kansas City Royals
The challenges presented by the slow offseason reared their ugly heads when it came to
the Kansas City Royals. The markets for Eric Hosmer and Mike Moustakas were very
soft, which paved the way for a potential return to the border town in Missouri that shares
the same name as a town across the border in Kansas that has hands down the best BBQ I
have ever had. Now I’m hungry. (If anybody wants to send me some Joe’s Kansas City, I
will be eternally grateful.) Instead, the Royals passed, so they will head into the season
with the roster that they have.
The Kansas City Royals were one of the teams that I was wrong about last season. As it
turned out, GM Dayton Moore made the decision to push for the playoffs rather than cash
in his free agent chips named Lorenzo Cain, Eric Hosmer, and Mike Moustakas. The
Royals should have gone under their season win total. They were an 80-82 team, but had
a 72-90 record per Pythagorean Win-Loss and a 72-90 record per BaseRuns. That was the
biggest outlier on the plus side in the BaseRuns category by two full games over the Red
Sox. The Royals were 25-16 in one-run games, which was part of the difference.
Timing is everything. The Royals went 33-19 over June and July, which prompted Moore
to make the decision to buy at the Trade Deadline. The Royals added Trevor Cahill, who
wound up being terrible in his two-month stint, as well as Ryan Buchter and Brandon
Maurer. Buchter has since been traded. The Royals also grabbed Melky Cabrera on July
30. The Royals lost on July 31 to fall to 55-49. They were two games back at that point in
time. By the beginning of September, the Royals were 65-67 and 11 games out. That was
all she wrote.
Going into the 2018 season, the Royals are in a weird state. They don’t have the
prospects for a full-on rebuild, but they don’t have the core to compete. They are
basically in baseball purgatory. With 10 teams that aren’t making any effort to win, the
Royals could, conceivably, spend a bunch of money to cobble together an AL Wild Card
push with help from a terrible AL Central outside of the Indians. On the other hand, what
purpose would that ultimately serve? Chasing down the Angels, Mariners, Red Sox, or
maybe even Blue Jays at an expensive cost seems counter-intuitive to what they should
be doing. The Royals have one top-100 prospect across Baseball Prospectus, Baseball
America, and MLB Pipeline and it is A-ball OF Seuly Matias, who is many years away.
The best prospects in their organization are mostly Low-A to High-A guys, so help from
within isn’t coming this year. There aren’t even a whole lot of trade pieces on expiring
contracts or short-term deals.
So, the Royals head into the season without much of a direction. They have a pretty low
floor and a very low ceiling. On one hand, it helps us because we should be able to
pinpoint with a higher degree of accuracy how this season plays out. On the other hand,
variance and volatility often create good opportunities to find value in the win total
marketplace.
Season Win Total Odds:
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5Dimes: 71.5 (100/-120)
BetOnline: 71 (-110/-110)
Bovada: 71.5 (-105/-125)
Additions: Ryan Goins, Wily Peralta, Jesse Hahn, Burch Smith, Brad Keller, Erick
Mejia, Cody Asche, Trevor Oaks, Scott Barlow, Heath Fillmyer, Blaine Boyer, Mike
Broadway
Losses: Lorenzo Cain, Eric Hosmer, Mike Moustakas (for now), Melky Cabrera,
Trevor Cahill, Peter Moylan, Jason Vargas, Mike Minor, Scott Alexander, Joakim
Soria, Mike Morin, Brandon Moss
As I mentioned, the Royals are in a weird spot. As a result, their offseason has followed
suit. They traded some promising bullpen arms in Scott Alexnader and Joakim Soria to
pick up some starting pitcher depth. They opted not to trade Lorenzo Cain, Eric Hosmer,
and Mike Moustakas and will get some competitive balance love, but didn’t add to the
system. So, they had to do it in other ways, by grabbing some low-risk free agents and
gambling on arms like Wily Peralta, Jesse Hahn, and Burch Smith.
The Royals certainly didn’t get any better this offseason, but they are in a position to take
gambles on some of these guys. As far as I’m concerned, it would benefit them to sign
several of the free agents left in the market. If they sneak into contention, they’ll have
some help. If not, they can spin those rentals or short-term deals into some prospects at
the Trade Deadline.
Why bet the over?
This is a team that has a few pieces. It is a pretty solid defensive team and a pitching staff
with a fair amount of innings under its belt. There are a lot of non-contending teams that
have extremely low floors this season. While the Royals appear to have a capped ceiling,
this is a very low season win total. Perhaps the bottom for this team is as bad as the
bottom for most teams.
There are some players on offense that could be pretty good. Whit Merrifield should be
very good. The South Carolina product took a while to get to the big leagues, but he
posted a three-win season in his first full year. He hit 19 dingers, stole 34 bases, and
slashed .288/.324/.460. The entire goal for offensive players is not to make outs, which is
why Merrifield’s offensive season wasn’t viewed as highly as it maybe should have been.
He only walked 4.6 percent of the time, so he is heavily dependent on BABIP luck to get
on base. Advanced metrics and projection systems generally don’t love that type of
profile. Merrifield’s season was solid and his second half was particularly good with a
.294/.328/.469 slash line. He’s a solid player and a plus defender at second base. I’d
expect another three-win type of season, even if we get a bit of a power regression. That
may not happen since Merrifield followed teammate Eric Hosmer, who FINALLY started
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hitting the ball in the air. Merrifield’s FB% jumped almost 11 percent from 2016 to 2017
and he hit for more power as a result.
Salvador Perez completely tanked in the second half last year. He still posted another
two-fWAR season and was actually on the above average side of wRC+ for the first time
since 2013. He still doesn’t walk, but his SLG jumped up to .495 before injuries forced
him into the proverbial wall. Perez was a .290/.318/.532 hitter in the first half, but a
.230/.261/.431 hitter in the second half. The end result was one of his better offensive
seasons. The 27-year-old was an early member of the elevation craze, as he went from
37.4 percent in 2015 to 47.1 percent in 2016. He sustained that last year. I’d expect
another decent season from Perez.
One of the reasons why I break these win total previews down to an individual player
level is a player like Jorge Bonifacio. Bonifacio made his MLB debut last year and
slashed .255/.320/.432. He was one of the few Royals that actually walked at a decent
clip and he hit 17 home runs. He had a .277/.351/.461 slash in Triple-A in 2016, so I
think there’s still a bit of upside in this offensive profile. His contact quality has always
been pretty decent with high BABIPs in the minors despite a lack of speed. He’s one of
those hidden value types that can help me construct a case for the over.
Jorge Soler was pretty awful in his small sample size with the Royals. He has reportedly
dropped 20 pounds and we might have a BSOHL (best shape of his life) alert, not just
physically, but mentally. Perhaps Soler was fast-tracked to the big leagues. He lit up
minor league pitching from 2012-14 in the Cubs organization, made his debut at 22, and
shined in a small sample size of 97 plate appearances. Since then, it has been a real
struggle for Soler. The Royals got him in the Wade Davis trade in 2016, but Soler was
hurt. In 2017, he slashed .267/.388/.564 for Triple-A Omaha. At the MLB level, he was
atrocious. But, Soler has reportedly retooled his swing and cleared his mind. The talent
has never been the question. The strikeouts are an issue, but he walked a lot in the minors
and could provide an element that the Royals don’t have in terms of a dude that can get
on base without hitting his way on. Soler’s defense hasn’t been great, but if he’s dropped
20 pounds, that helped. I’m cautiously buying stock in Soler and a strong season from
him really changes the look of this offense.
The Royals rotation has a bit of upside, but a plethora of health concerns. I’ll obviously
go into that more during the second part of this preview. Danny Duffy only made 24
starts covering 146.1 innings of work, but he posted a career-best 3.4 fWAR. He lost
some of last season’s strikeouts, but his command profile was better overall with a 7.6
percent HR/FB%. Duffy basically sacrificed strikeouts for trying to avoid the barrel. In
some respects, it worked. Unfortunately, a bum elbow cut short his 2017 season. Duffy
won’t be a 200-inning guy, but he’ll be effective when he is out there and that’s a big
start for this rotation.
Jake Junis is the guy that I have my eye on. Junis made 16 starts and four relief
appearances last season across 98.1 innings at the MLB level. He had 12 additional starts
in Triple-A. His Triple-A numbers were really strong with a 2.92/3.12/3.57 pitcher slash.
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He struck out 86 and only walked 15. His MLB numbers weren’t great with a
4.30/4.55/4.77 pitcher slash, but he was quite good on his second full-time call-up. Over
his final 62.1 innings covering 10 starts, he had a 50/9 K/BB ratio with a 3.61 ERA, a
3.43 FIP, and a 4.23 xFIP. Young pitchers that can close out the season strong impress
me because they are trying to manage their bodies through a full season and we often see
performance drop off late in the year. As far as his MLB sample size, Junis thrived late in
the year. He faced Cleveland twice, Arizona, and the Yankees, so he wasn’t facing a
bunch of bad lineups either.
Jason Hammel wound up being pretty useful last year with a 4.37 FIP and a 2.1 fWAR.
Ian Kennedy gave up a ton of long balls, but he’s capable of something resembling
league average like he had in 2014 and 2016. I’m not fully out on Nate Karns, but
thoracic outlet syndrome surgery is rough to come back from. Trevor Oaks could be very
interesting.
The bullpen is still anchored by Kelvin Herrera, at least at the start of the season. Herrera
is an impending free agent. He had a pretty bad season last year as he got victimized by
bad command. He had a 2.75 ERA with a 2.47 FIP and a 2.77 xFIP in 2016 over 72
appearances. His strikeout rate fell, his walk rate tumbled, and his home run rate
ballooned last season, which was a perfect storm of bad for the Royals bullpen.
Brandon Maurer is a decent reliever, though his second half was quite poor last year. In
the first half, Maurer held opposing hitters to a .250/.292/.385 slash line, so he certainly
could return to being a solid arm. Wily Peralta sitting 96 in the bullpen has some upside.
Why bet the under?
Man, where do I begin? The Royals lost 10.4 fWAR worth of position player talent when
Eric Hosmer, Lorenzo Cain, and Mike Moustakas left. As a team last year, they only
managed 13.7 fWAR from the position players. So that’s not good. At all. A few Royals
embraced the elevate and celebrate philosophy, but that was about it. This is a team that
cannot really make things happen offensively because they don’t draw walks. Hosmer,
Cain, and Moustakas were the three best hitters on the team by wRC+. Whit Merrifield
and Salvador Perez are the only holdovers with a sample size. Perez was three percent
better than league average and Merrifield was five percent better.
This offense is in shambles. Jorge Bonifacio might have a little bit of upside, but the
chances of the Royals having more than three hitters on the plus side of a 100 wRC+
looks like a long shot. Alcides Escobar was brought back to be one of the worst hitters in
baseball. Alex Gordon’s monumental drop-off in his mid-30s has been painful to watch.
Some may be looking for a bounce back season, but that might mean his 2016 line of
.220/.312/.380 with a .303 wOBA and an 86 wRC+. He had a .208/.293/.315 slash line
with a 62 wRC+ last season. He’s still a good outfielder, but the bat has become a
toothpick.
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As things currently stand, Cheslor Cuthbert and Hunter Dozier are projected to man the
corners. Cuthbert had a robust 56 wRC+ in 153 PA last season. Dozier was hurt most of
last season and only had 129 plate appearances across three levels. Paulo Orlando is kind
of a toolsy option in the outfield with a 96 wRC+ and decent defense in 2016, but last
year was ugly for him. Salvador Perez’s lone offensive skill is to hit for power, but he
never walks and is reliant on a high BABIP as a catcher for offensive upside. Whit
Merrifield’s 105 wRC+ was his highest at any level since 2014 when he was at Triple-A.
The speed should stay and he’s a solid defender, so he’s a high-floor player, but
projection systems have his offense dropping back down. We’ll see how legit the power
increase is because that will define him. Otherwise, he doesn’t walk a lot and he’s a
singles hitter.
I want to buy Jorge Soler stock, but it’d be nice if he could stay healthy and prove it to
me. There is still a ton of swing-and-miss in that profile. The skill set is there to
overcome that with power and walks, but I’ll need to see it. At least he has a low-stress
environment to try and prove it.
There is no depth on this team. Maybe the market wasn’t there for the Royals, but going
for it has stripped their farm system of a lot of useful pieces. The projected MLB bench
features three bums in Drew Butera, Ryan Goins, and Billy Burns. Raul Mondesi might
have some impact upside and should be the shortstop from Day 1, but that offensive
profile scares me with high strikeout rates and no ability to walk. Bubba Starling is
already ticketed for Triple-A Omaha and hasn’t hit at all over the last two years. Any
impact talent, outside of Mondesi, is a long way away from a position player standpoint.
Jason Hammel led all starters last season with 180.1 innings pitched and hung a 5.29
ERA with a 4.37 FIP and a 4.92 xFIP. Danny Duffy only worked 146.1 innings and
hasn’t worked more than 180 innings in a season. The second-most valuable pitcher for
the Royals by fWAR was reliever Mike Minor, who signed elsewhere. Scott Alexander
was a valuable relief arm and he’s also gone. Jason Vargas was the second-most durable
starter and he’s gone. Nate Karns is coming back from a significant medical procedure.
Jake Junis, as much as I like him, also got battered in some MLB starts and his Triple-A
strikeout rate surge came out of nowhere. He went from 19.6 percent at Triple-A and 24.1
percent at Double-A in 2016 to a 29.9 percent K% in Triple-A last season. Forgive me for
being extremely skeptical of that.
Kelvin Herrera was not very good last season. His 2013 and 2016 seasons featured great
strikeout rates, but 2014, 2015, and 2017 did not. Long ball problems and command
issues really popped up last season. Maybe that’s a workload thing being an upper-90s
arm with 214 appearances from 2014-16 and 64 more last season. Either way, Herrera is
an impending free agent. Contention won’t happen this year, so Dayton Moore will move
him at the deadline.
Brandon Maurer should be better than what we saw with the Royals last season, but how
much better is the question. His numbers are all over the map, especially as an everyday
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reliever, so I’d be reluctant to put any sort of concrete projection on him. Wily Peralta
saw some success with the Brewers with added velocity, but he operates on really thin
margins with bad control and command. There are some interesting swingmen types like
Brian Flynn, Jesse Hahn, and Burch Smith that may be elevated in the bullpen, but I’m
not going to put a ton of faith in that until I see it.
Pick: Under 71.5 (-125, 5Dimes)
This is a very, very bad baseball team. Considering that there are a lot of helpful pieces
still unsigned, the fact that the Royals haven’t bought any of them is a sign that they are
content to go into the season with what they have. And they don’t have much. The end of
an era in Kansas City is likely to be met with a plethora of losses.
For the most part, I won’t play win totals this low. Crazy things can happen. It is very
hard to lose 100 games. It is not easy to lose 90 games, but the Royals have the type of
roster that can do it. They have one above average starter in Danny Duffy and one starter
likely going for league average in Jake Junis. They have maybe two above average
position players. They have a pretty poor bullpen and the best arm of the bunch in Kelvin
Herrera will be traded when the first good offer comes along.
It is going to be a long year in Kansas City and there is only one way to go with this win
total.
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Minnesota Twins
What a difference a year makes. The Minnesota Twins easily flew under their season win
total with my favorite bet of the 2016 season. After losing 103 games, the Twins
rebounded in a big way to be a participant in the AL Wild Card game. They were a major
underdog to the New York Yankees in that game and did lose, but an improvement to 85
wins was quite an accomplishment.
There were quite a few people in Minnesota’s corner last season from a futures
standpoint, as the Twins had a 66-96 Pythagorean Win-Loss record during the worst
season in Minnesota Twins history. The Twins lost 104, 110, and 113 games during their
years as the Washington Senators. I didn’t buy in and I was way off in my assessment.
PECOTA was all about the Twins from Day 1, as a regression in their awful defense
created some positive projections and a lot of the market fell in line with that forecast. It
wound up being the right side.
As we go into the 2018 season, I really don’t know what to expect from Minnesota. Full
disclosure here that this is a team that could repeat last season’s run, but could also finish
with 85+ losses. I think this is an extremely high variance team. After all, the Twins were
50-53 going into August and went 35-24 the rest of the way to play at Yankee Stadium in
the one-game playoff. Unlike last season, the alternate standings metrics are against the
Twins, with an 83-79 Pythagorean Win-Loss record and an 81-81 BaseRuns record. The
Twins were 45-43 at the All-Star Break with a -60 run differential. Their one really good
month, August, coincided with the start of Cleveland’s 22-game winning streak, which
left the division crown nothing more than a pipe dream.
Many are taking for granted the idea that the Twins will be the only pseudo contender in
the AL Central to challenge the Indians. As a result, there has to be some built-in
inflation because Minnesota certainly appears to be more of a polished product than the
White Sox, Tigers, and Royals, all of whom could very well lose 90+ games this season.
A total of 57 games against those three teams should, theoretically, allow the Twins to
pad their record a little bit. The Twins were 34-23 against those teams last season.
Let’s see if we can put this puzzle together and find out what to expect in the Twin Cities
this year.
Season Win Total Odds:
5Dimes: 83 (-110/-110)
BetOnline: 82.5 (-130/100)
Bovada: 82.5 (-145/115)
Additions: Logan Morrison, Jake Odorizzi, Fernando Rodney, Addison Reed, Zach
Duke, Tyler Kinley, Michael Pineda, Brock Stassi, Taylor Featherston, Gregorio
Petit, Ryan LaMarre, Nick Buss, Myles Jaye, Matt Magill
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Losses: Anthony Recker, Matt Belisle, Bartolo Colon, Dillon Gee, Glen Perkins,
Hector Santiago, Chris Gimenez, Nik Turley, Byung Ho Park, Buddy Boshers
It has been an interesting offseason for the Twins. They took advantage of a soft free
agent market to grab Fernando Rodney and Addison Reed at very good prices. The
Michael Pineda gamble won’t yield much of a return this season, but a cheap 2019 season
relative to his upside could be fun.
Just before posting these, the Twins picked up Logan Morrison on the cheap. Morrison
will assume DH duties while Joe Mauer plays first base most of the time. It was a solid
signing and another example of why being patient was so important for teams this winter.
The losses aren’t overly significant. Some bullpen arms were lost, but the Twins quickly
replaced those.
The best addition that the Twins made was hiring Josh Kalk for the front office. The
Twins have been embracing a different front office philosophy since hiring Derek Falvey
away from the Cleveland Indians. It makes sense for the Twins, who are in a fairly small
market by MLB standards, to have a lot of really smart people making decisions and
looking for inefficiencies. Kalk did a lot of pitching work in the Tampa Bay front office
and was a pioneer with PITCHf/x data.
Why bet the over?
The Twins were a pretty good offense last year and only got better in the second half
when Byron Buxton got it all figured out. Miguel Sano is a great offensive player, but the
future star of this team is Buxton. The 24-year-old added a .300/.347/.546 second half
slash line to his elite defense. After a horrible .216/.288/.306 slash in the first half,
Buxton put all the pieces together in the second half. He still struck out a ton and didn’t
walk much, so the sustainability is in question, but his contact quality took a massive step
forward. Buxton was also 29-of-30 in the stolen base department. He already has a high
floor as a player with elite defensive skills and speed, but offensive gains could catapult
him into the stratosphere of five or six wins above replacement player. Buxton accounted
for 24 defensive runs saved, which is just ludicrous, and a 13.1 UZR/150. *If* the hitting
can be league average or better over the course of a season, we’re talking about a stud.
Brian Dozier proved that his 2016 spike was no fluke. Dozier posted his second
consecutive five-win season last year. He slashed .271/.359/.498, with a noticeable drop
in SLG, which was to be expected after his 42-homer season in 2016. He made up for
that drop by walking 11.1 percent of the time and the lower number of home runs
allowed his BABIP to climb. Dozier was less effective on the bases and as a fielder, but
had such a good offensive season, that his value didn’t drop off too far. He should still be
in prime position for a 4+ fWAR season with his offensive ability at a position where
offense isn’t commonplace.
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Miguel Sano was limited to 483 plate appearances last season due to injuries. He still
slashed .264/.452/.507 with 28 home runs. His offensive numbers went up across the
board as he walked more and hit for more power. His contact quality also increased, as
evidenced by a .375 BABIP. He also played mostly passable defense at third base. He
hasn’t played a full season since 2015 and missed all of 2014, but Sano is a feared hitter
when he’s in the lineup.
The supporting cast will define the position player group for the Twins. Because of
Buxton’s defense and speed, Dozier’s offense, and Sano’s offense, those are all high-
floor players. A guy like Eddie Rosario is tougher to figure out. Rosario slashed
.290/.328/.507 in what was a breakout season for him with 28 HR in 589 PA. Rosario,
like most Twins, carried a high BABIP of .312. He cut his strikeout rate by more than six
percent and walked more often, though 5.9 percent was still way below league average.
Rosario never really hit for a lot of power in the minors and had 23 HR in 828 PA prior to
last season. Even with some regression, which is to be expected, Rosario should be a two-
win player with an average to above average offensive profile and average to slightly
below average defense.
Joe Mauer seems to be back. He still doesn’t hit for any power, but Mauer’s .384 OBP
led to his best offensive season since 2013. Mauer’s contact-oriented approach is a big
help on a team that does have a lot of guys that swing and miss. At least Brian Dozier and
Miguel Sano walk to offset the strikeouts, but most of the roster walks at a below average
clip, so Mauer’s good plate coverage and high average is a big help.
Logan Morrison brings a good skill set to the table. He posted a .363 wOBA with a 130
wRC+ as he joined the ranks of players obsessed with launch angle. Morrison went from
a 34.7 percent FB% in 2016 to a 46.2 percent FB% in 2017. The end result was a lot
more dingers. He has always been a guy with good power when he has been able to
elevate, with some solid HR/FB% totals, but he took it up another level last season. He
also made more hard contact than ever before and set a career-best in BB% at 13.5
percent.
The rest of the offense is full of guys with skill sets all over the map. Eduardo Escobar hit
21 homers. Jason Castro didn’t hit for any power, but drew walks. Jorge Polanco made a
lot of contact, but didn’t have a ton to show for it. Max Kepler narrowly missed hitting 20
HR. The bench remains in tact with Robbie Grossman, who was above league average
offensively last season, and Kennys Vargas, who still seems to have a bit of power
upside.
The Twins were dealt some bad news when Ervin Santana had to undergo surgery to
repair a problematic finger. Navigating through the first 4-to-6 weeks of the season
without Santana won’t be easy for a team that lacks starting pitching depth. Fortunately,
Jose Berrios’s development last season is a good starting point. Berrios posted a 3.89
ERA with a 3.84 FIP and a 4.51 xFIP last season. We don’t need to worry about the xFIP
with Berrios, who has great raw stuff and won’t give up a lot of homers. He hasn’t at any
other stop and his 2016 debut was the outlier of his career thus far. Berrios was better in
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the first half with a .219/.289/.365 slash against than the second half with a
.252/.335/.393 slash against, but those were still solid second-half numbers. He does have
some platoon problems, which will hopefully get ironed out this season as the youngster
turns 24 in May. There is a lot to like about this upside and arsenal.
Jake Odorizzi can provide some solid innings for the Twins. Odorizzi was one of the
pitchers hurt the most by the league’s launch angle craze. He’s also been a dude to allow
a lot of homers, but he also allows a lot of fly balls and anything hit in the air that Byron
Buxton can get to is caught. Odorizzi has regularly been a guy to post a better ERA than
his advanced metrics, so he’s not a favorite of mine, but I can’t argue with three straight
years of 2.0 fWAR or better from 2014-16.
Did the light come on for Kyle Gibson last season? His year-to-date numbers were not
good, but he held opposing batters to a .306 wOBA in 76.2 innings of work in the second
half. His strikeout rate went from 13.6 percent to 22.1 percent and his walk rate went
from 10.1 percent to 6.9 percent. Gibson’s fastball command greatly improved in the
second half, which led to the improved production. We’ve seen him be a tale of two splits
in the past, so the potential is there.
The rest of the rotation will have to be cobbled together without Santana, who had a 3.28
ERA last season in 211.1 innings of work. Adalberto Mejia, Aaron Slegers, Stephen
Gonsalves, and Tyler Duffey will have to figure things out. We could also see Kohl
Stewart early in the year.
The bullpen is pretty decent here. Fernando Rodney had better numbers than his 4.23
ERA last season. He had a 3.03 FIP and a 3.71 xFIP. A 61.1 percent LOB% was his
undoing as a reliever and that is such an important stat for relievers. If you see a high
ERA, you’ll usually see a low LOB%. Addison Reed was a fine signing after another
solid year with the Mets and Red Sox last season. Reed struck out exactly a batter per
inning and had excellent peripherals.
Trevor Hildenberger was very good in his 37 appearances with a 3.21 ERA, a 3.01 FIP,
and a 2.92 xFIP. If Tyler Duffey works in relief, he’s a bounce back candidate with a
4.94 ERA, but a 3.72 FIP and a 3.80 xFIP last season. Taylor Rogers is a very effective
left-hander. I do actually like this bullpen.
PECOTA nailed it about the team defense. Byron Buxton is the best defensive center
fielder in baseball. Jason Castro doesn’t provide a ton of value with the bat, but he’s a
solid pitch framer and a good defensive catcher. Joe Mauer still plays well at first. Most
of the rest of the roster can play something that resembles league average defense.
Defense could be a strength for the Twins that may provide some surplus value.
Why bet the under?
As I was looking through the Twins’ offensive stats from 2017, one thing really stood out
to me. There were several players that had extremely high batting averages on balls in
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play. As I expected, the Twins were a pretty significant outlier in the batting average
department. Using Baseball Savant’s absolutely incredible Statcast database, I did a little
bit of digging. The Twins had an expected batting average of .239, but had an actual team
batting average of .260. That is based on launch angle, exit velocity, and distance. It was
the third-highest discrepancy in the American League.
So, as you would expect, the Twins were also another outlier in the xwOBA – wOBA
department. xWOBA stands for expected wOBA, once again, based on launch angle, exit
velocity, and distance. The Twins had an expected wOBA of .316, but their actual wOBA
was .335. That was tied for the second-highest discrepancy in the AL.
This should come as no surprise. Brian Dozier had a .300 BABIP, which was 20 points
higher than his 2016 showing and 24 points above his career mark. Byron Buxton, who
has the speed to carry high BABIPs, was well above the normal range at .339. His would
appear more sustainable than Dozier’s, but the .378 BABIP he had in the second half was
among the highest in the league and definitely not likely to continue. Miguel Sano does
hit the ball incredibly hard, but he had a .375 BABIP after posting a .329 BABIP the
previous season. Joe Mauer went from a .309 BABIP in 2015 to a .301 BABIP in 2016 to
a .349 BABIP in 2017. His walk rate was pretty consistent with those previous two
seasons, but the huge BABIP climb is why he was able to post a .384 OBP and such a
fine offensive season. Jason Castro only hit .242, but he had a .318 BABIP, which was 14
points above his career mark, which is skewed by a .351 BABIP in 2013. He didn’t crack
.300 in the BABIP department each of the previous three years.
There should be wide-scale BABIP regression for the Twins. The reason I went to the
Statcast data was to see if there was something that changed from a contact quality
standpoint or something organizationally. The Twins were sixth in average exit velocity,
so it stands to reason that they could be one of the league’s better offenses in the BABIP
department, but not to the extent that they were last season. The Twins actually dropped
in average exit velocity from 2016 to 2017, but went from a team BABIP in 2016 of .300
to .306. So I don’t see any sort of organizational change, other than to say that it looked
like an outlier type of season.
New addition Logan Morrison could be another BABIP casualty. He hit 38 HR, had a
46.2 percent FB%, and still posted a BABIP of .268. That seems a little bit high given the
batted ball distribution. Fly balls do go for more home runs, but they also go for fewer
hits. Projection systems actually trump up his BABIP because they don’t recognize the
launch angle changes that can allow him to carry a high home run rate. They’re using
multi-year sample sizes of batted ball distribution and Morrison elevated a lot less in the
past. It makes it hard to project players like this, but I certainly wouldn’t put Morrison
down for a higher BABIP.
Less offense means really bad things for this pitching staff. While Ervin Santana’s
presence is important, let’s not ignore the fact that Santana was one of the league’s most
fortunate pitchers. He had a 3.28 ERA with a 4.46 FIP and a 4.77 xFIP. He stranded 79.5
percent of baserunners and allowed just a .245 BABIP. We don’t often see numbers like
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that from pitchers without elite stuff and we certainly don’t see that type of strand rate
without super-elite command or a high strikeout rate. Santana has neither. His loss hurts
in that he was clearly the second-best starter on this team, but regression was coming for
him anyway. He’ll also miss the first month-plus of the season.
I’m selling Jake Odorizzi stock. Minnesota’s ballpark was fourth in slugging percentage
for right-handed hitters and fourth in slugging percentage for left-handed hitters. That
doesn’t seem like a great place for a guy that allows home runs at an alarming rate.
Odorizzi’s 10.1 percent walk rate just exacerbated the home run problem. He also dealt
with a bad back last season that seems to be a progressive issue judging by his pitching
performance. His BB% has risen each of the last two years and so has his home run rate.
I’m not really buying that he is a big upgrade for this team.
Jose Berrios should be fine and his metrics supported the season that he had, but we also
have to wait and see if his 2017 was legit. Judging by his minor league numbers it should
be, but he’s now the unquestioned ace of this staff and will have a lot to live up to.
Especially because the other guys in the rotation are Kyle Gibson, Adalberto Mejia, and
Aaron Slegers. This is a pretty bad rotation. And, frankly, Berrios isn’t front-line material
as of yet either. The stuff is, but the performance is not. Last year’s 3.89/3.84/4.51 pitcher
slash is more like high-end #3 or above average #2 starter performance.
Defensively, the Twins should help out the pitching staff, but we’ve also seen Byron
Buxton play the role of Crash Test Dummy a few too many times and he’s had a lot of
injuries in his path to the big leagues. He had some more last season as a big leaguer.
He’s a major part of this entire cog. The standard rule of thumb is that every set of 10
defensive runs saved equates to one win. On that alone, Buxton was more than a two-win
player defensively. He has to stay healthy. It is imperative for this team. We often think
about how much to adjust a team for the loss of a player in other sports. I’m not saying
that Buxton was the sole catalyst behind Minnesota’s 26-game improvement from 2016
to 2017, but he played a massive role, especially as his offense improved. He’s one of the
most important players to his respective team this season in all of baseball. That is not an
exaggeration.
I’m not convinced with Eddie Rosario’s breakout. Guys that don’t walk are never going
to draw my appreciation after a season like that because they are so BABIP and barrel-
dependent. Rosario’s value last season was in his .312 BABIP and his .507 SLG. Rosario
overachieved by 39 points per Statcast in the wOBA department. Again, I do need to
point out that wOBA values are a little bit different at Statcast than at Fangraphs, where
he had a .349 wOBA. Either way, he was an overachiever. Dozier was another big
overachiever with a .338 xwOBA at Savant and a .370 actual wOBA. Buxton and Sano
were also overachievers. This offense was very fortunate last season as far as I can see
and the offense is what carried the team.
I do like the bullpen, as mentioned, so I can’t find a ton of faults with it. We do have to
wonder about its upside with Fernando Rodney as the closer. I think this will be a group
that works a ton of innings, so we’ll see how all of those guys handle the workload.
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Pick: Over 82.5 (-130; BetOnline)
The Twins have a relatively high floor by playing three doormats in the AL Central a
combined total of 57 times. I mostly just don’t want to get burned here. I will not be the
least bit surprised if the Indians are the only team above .500 in the AL Central. I will not
have a play on the Twins, but if I was forced to do so, I would go over the total. The
recent addition of Logan Morrison deepens the lineup and provides a measure of
sustainability because he is another guy that walks and hits for power. Because the Twins
have to outslug everybody, that helps.
We’re still wondering if Miguel Sano will face any discipline for his alleged actions
against a former team photographer. I’m still not a huge believer in the overall
sustainability of this offense. But, I love the direction that they’re going under Derek
Falvey and I’d rather err on the side of caution. They may contend for the Wild Card, but
they’re not a threat for the division as far as I’m concerned.
One final caveat: The Brewers made some enormous strides on the pitching side by
looking at things differently. Average to below average starters like Jimmy Nelson and
Chase Anderson suddenly made the leap. Don’t underestimate what somebody like Josh
Kalk can mean to a team. I’m not sure if it happens instantaneously or not, but it is
something I will be watching closely going forward.
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Houston Astros
The Houston Astros got those magical 11 wins to become a World Series champion.
What do they have in mind for an encore? Well, judging by the offseason, it looks like
they’d like to repeat. Far too often, teams that go on deep playoff runs or win the World
Series get complacent. They rest on their laurels and simply plan for everything to go the
same way the following season. It usually doesn’t work that way.
As the AL West got better around them, the Astros also got better. This is a team that had
three straight seasons with 106 or more losses from 2011-13. A lot of key prospects made
it to the big leagues together and had success at the same time. They plugged holes with
free agents and trade acquisitions. They had just their second season with at least 100
wins in franchise history and won the World Series. Why would they hold back now?
You have to applaud Jeff Luhnow and the front office for being aggressive. Their
aggressive development plans and years of quality drafting have paid off handsomely.
That flag will fly forever at Minute Maid Park, but it’s time to shift the focus to the
upcoming season. Houston is coming off of a 101-61 campaign, in which the Astros fell
just one game short of being the top seed in the American League. That was clearly a
blessing in disguise, as the Astros drew the overmatched Boston Red Sox in the ALDS
instead of the dangerous New York Yankees. The Astros still had to go through the
Yankees, but may not have made it past the first round had they outflanked the Cleveland
Indians in the standings. Houston finished with a 99-63 record per Pythagorean Win-Loss
and a 99-63 record per BaseRuns.
As we head into 2018, the Astros are projected to be the best team in baseball per
Fangraphs’s standings and their depth charts WAR calculations. The Astros are projected
to amass 52.2 fWAR. A completely replacement-level team filled with players that have
exactly 0.0 fWAR would be projected to finish 48-114. That means that the Depth Charts
projections would have Houston winning around 100 games. PECOTA is at 99 wins.
None of these projections should come as a surprise because the Astros had one of the
best offenses we’ve ever seen last season.
Will the Astros be able to avoid that dreaded World Series hangover? Will they be able to
sustain last year’s remarkable pace? Let’s find out.
Season Win Total Odds:
5Dimes: 97.5 (100/-120)
BetOnline: 96.5 (-120/100)
Bovada: 96.5 (-130/100)
Additions: Gerrit Cole, Joe Smith, Hector Rondon, Tim Federowicz, Buddy
Boshers, Anthony Gose
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Losses: Carlos Beltran, Tyler Clippard, Luke Gregerson, Francisco Liriano,
Cameron Maybin, Juan Centeno, Mike Fiers, Preston Tucker, Colin Moran,
Michael Feliz, Joe Musgrove
Some big names were in and out for the Astros over the winter. The trade for Gerrit Cole
came at a cost of Colin Moran, Michael Feliz, and Joe Musgrove, but he is an upgrade in
the rotation for this season and a safety net if an extension cannot be reached with Dallas
Keuchel. The Astros are always playing a few steps ahead and that was a sound move for
them. It is a tremendous luxury to have young, cost-controlled position players that allow
a team to move prospects to fill needs.
Joe Smith is a high-floor reliever that immediately slots into leverage situations in the
bullpen. Hector Rondon is an extremely savvy gamble as he looks to rebuild his stock.
The Astros needed to fill some pen roles with Tyler Clippard and Luke Gregerson out the
door and they did just that.
This was a strong offseason for a team that really didn’t need a whole lot of help.
Why bet the over?
This is a complete team. There are no weaknesses. Years of great drafting and developing
have also provided a lot of organizational depth, from the Major League bench to the
minor league ranks. There is so much to like about every facet of this team. Using 2004
as a cut-off to eliminate the Steroid Era, the Astros had the best wRC+ in the last 14
seasons at 121. That means that they were 21 percent above league average. As a team,
the Astros posted a .282/.346/.478 slash line. Their .349 wOBA was the best in baseball
by 13 points over the Indians and Yankees and their 121 wRC+ was 13 points higher than
any other team. wRC+ is adjusted for league average and park factors.
Only the Yankees hit more home runs than the Astros. Remember when the knock on this
team was that its hitters struck out too much? That was around the time when
sabermetricians were trying to explain to people that strikeouts aren’t much worse than
other outs and high-strikeout hitters often walk a lot and hit for a lot of power. As the
Astros have developed, they have done it all. They haven’t sacrificed power and still
walked at a decent clip while having the league’s lowest strikeout rate at 17.3 percent.
This offense is truly stacked. Consider that league average for a player over the course of
a full season is 2.0 fWAR. The Astros had SIX position players finish with more than that
last season and they are all back. Jose Altuve is the standout star of that class. The
reigning MVP had a brilliant season with a .346/.410/.547 slash line, a .405 wOBA, and a
160 wRC+. He’s also a pretty decent defender at the pivot as well. Altuve hit 24 homers,
stole 32 bases, and put a lot of balls in play. His strikeout rate actually jumped nearly
three percent and he still had a career offensive year, so imagine what could happen if it
regresses back a bit this season. He is the best player in baseball at his position right now.
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Before he was even drafted, scouts raved about Carlos Correa. He was a first-division
starter and a player that would be a game-changer. Just three short seasons into Correa’s
MLB career and he has already accumulated 13.7 fWAR. Last season, Correa took the
next step offensively, as his contact quality went through the roof en route to a
.315/.391/.550 slash line with a .394 wOBA and a 152 wRC+. Correa cut his K% down
and maintained a high walk rate, even while dealing with injuries that limited him to 481
plate appearances. The scary thing is that Correa had a 5.2-win season and only played
109 games. He’s likely looking at his first six-win season next year, even if his offense,
specifically his BABIP, regresses a bit.
George Springer deserves a ton of credit. Springer has worked hard at his craft to cut
down his strikeouts. The fruits of that labor ripened last season when he also had a career
offensive year with a .283/.367/.522 slash line, a .376 wOBA, and a 140 wRC+. He
didn’t surpass 2016’s fWAR, but he had a better all around year offensively. He also cut
his K% down from 23.9 percent to 17.6 percent. In turn, his SLG took a big jump with
more balls in play and more chances at hits. Even with some regression in the strikeout
rate, which could very well happen, Springer is an easy four-win player with room for
more.
As if the Astros needed more talent, Alex Bregman’s second half surge showed what he
is capable of in future years. Bregman had some growing pains in the first half with a
.256/.338/.419 slash line, which was still a 105 wRC+, but it paled in comparison to his
second half. Bregman slashed .315/.367/.536 in the second half with a 141 wRC+. He
also played passable defense at both shortstop and third base. We look for surplus value
on teams that can help push us towards betting the over and I’d expect Bregman to
surpass last year’s 3.8 fWAR and continue to grow as a player.
At this point, we’re basically up to 20 fWAR in just four position players and the
offensive supporting cast is really good, too. Super-utility man Marwin Gonzalez had a
four-win season and may be one of the most valuable players nobody talks about. He can
play several positions at a league average level and is a switch hitter. His versatility is
almost unmatched at this point. He’s like Ben Zobrist in his prime. Josh Reddick remains
a plus hitter on the fat side of the platoon against right-handed pitching. He had a 131
wRC+ against righties, but also managed to be above average against lefties in his limited
sample in that split. Yulieski Gurriel doesn’t walk as much as his teammates, but he only
had an 11 percent strikeout rate and could be this season’s breakout candidate.
Wily veteran Brian McCann is still a decent player and Evan Gattis remains a nice power
threat in a DH capacity. He was limited to 325 plate appearances last season. Jake
Marisnick is a terrific defender and a good part-time hitter in a platoon capacity. Backup
catcher Max Stassi hit .266/.383/.473 in Triple-A last season, so he’ll be yet another solid
contributor. Just about everybody for the Astros is above average in their respective roles.
A lot of players had career years last year. It was a similar setup to when the Royals had
the same thing happen in 2015 when they won the World Series. The difference is that
those were established players that mostly just played over their heads. With the Astros, a
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lot of improving players took big steps forward in their careers. It is a far more
sustainable trend than what we saw with Kansas City in my opinion.
This will surprise you, but this team is awesome on the pitching side. Dallas Keuchel
probably has the best command in baseball. I knew that Justin Verlander would be a
perfect fit with a bunch of analytically-minded personnel in Houston that could assist in
refining his usage and maximize his high-spin rate fastball. Gerrit Cole is a great
addition.
Then you look at their fWAR rankings from last year and what do you see? Brad Peacock
tops the list. Charlie Morton is second. Lance McCullers is third. Dallas Keuchel is
fourth. This team is loaded with pitching and the reason why is because the Astros have
maximized everybody’s strikeout potential. Peacock posted a 3.00 ERA with a 3.07 FIP
and a 3.73 xFIP in 21 starts and 13 relief appearances with a career-best 29.5 percent
K%. Extremely heavy slider usage the last two years have taken him from a middling arm
to a legit weapon. Charlie Morton’s velocity increase helped his swing-and-miss upside
and his curveball usage hit a career high last season. He has also developed a cutter,
which wasn’t a great pitch for him, but it deepens his arsenal and adds some more value
to his other pitches by giving hitters something else to think about. Morton is also a
ground ball specialist, so the launch angle craze doesn’t hurt him a whole lot.
Lance McCullers suffered from a low LOB% in his 22 starts, as he had a 4.25 ERA. But,
he had a 3.10 FIP and a 3.17 xFIP with some really strong peripherals. McCullers was
one of 12 Astros pitchers with at least 20 or more innings pitched that had a strikeout
percentage over 25 percent. You can’t hit dingers if you can’t make contact. That is the
biggest takeaway from this Astros pitching staff. They miss a ton of bats.
Then there’s Dallas Keuchel, who doesn’t. Yet Keuchel’s mastery of the bottom of the
strike zone is a big separator. He still struck out over 20 percent of batters faced, but 66.8
percent of balls in play off of Keuchel were hit on the ground. As I mentioned in one of
my previous write-ups, we saw the fewest number of singles in baseball since 1977 last
year. Teams don’t manufacture innings. Against a guy like Keuchel, you have to
manufacture innings. He had a .256 BABIP against, which is probably due for some
modest regression, but he also induces a ton of weak contact. He had a 2.90 ERA, which
probably isn’t sustainable, but his 3.79 FIP and 3.32 xFIP were well above average.
Keuchel should be between a 3.25-3.50 ERA and again provide a lot of value in what is a
contract year for the southpaw.
Playoff hero Justin Verlander is one of my favorite non-Indians pitchers of all-time. He is
an absolute workhorse. The way that Verlander has adjusted over the course of his career,
the way that he has regained his velocity after losing some of it, and the way that he
continues to baffle hitters is thoroughly impressive. He doesn’t have the luxury of
spacious Comerica Park anymore, so we’ll see what his numbers look like, but Houston
seems to be a tremendous fit for him. In his five starts, he only allowed four runs, all on
solo dingers. He had 219 strikeouts in 206 innings. What separates Verlander from
everybody else is his fastball command. In an era when most pitchers have league
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average or worse fastballs, Verlander’s assortment of fastballs was 32.9 runs above
average per Baseball Info Solutions and his four-seamer was 33.2 runs above average per
PITCHf/x. Fastball command is what holds a lot of pitchers back. It is a strength for
Verlander.
This is a solid bullpen as well. The addition of Gerrit Cole pushes one of the
starters/swingmen into a full-time relief role, which means another multi-inning option
alongside Chris Devenski, who is one of the most dangerous relief weapons in the game.
Ken Giles was a top-15 reliever throughout the year. Joe Smith is good enough to
encourage righties to turn around and try batting left-handed. Hector Rondon is a full,
low-risk gamble on a former closer that really was a valuable relief arm for the Cubs.
This team honestly has no weaknesses. Even with some recent trades, the farm system
still has MLB-ready talent and quite a bit of it. Furthermore, I love teams that openly
embrace analytics like this. The players have bought in as well. Teams like this can really
capitalize on strengths and weaknesses throughout the season. They can get players to
make the necessary adjustments. This is a young core growing up at the same time in the
lineup and there is a great mix of talent on the pitching staff.
Why bet the under?
Well, the World Series hangover thing could be very real. I’ll plagiarize myself for a
minute here by pasting in what I wrote in my Cubs win total piece last year:
Ben Lindbergh wrote on October 31, 2014 about how things had gone to that point.
As we know, the Kansas City Royals went right back to the World Series in 2015 and
won it. They were a .500 team the following year. Per Lindbergh’s research, the drop in
winning percentage is noticeably bigger for teams that won the Fall Classic as opposed to
those that lost.
The Cubs were a 25-27 team going into the month of June before they strung together
four straight winning months. Even the Indians, who were on the losing end of the 2016
World Series, were just 27-24. There are a few reasons for the hangover. The adrenaline
and the feeling of the playoffs cheapen the regular season, especially for a team that is
such a heavy favorite to win the division. The Cubs and Indians were both heavy
favorites, much like the Astros. Players also have a month less to recover and prepare for
the season. Playing until November is a lot different than playing until the first week of
October. Pitchers work a lot more innings than they are used to and hitters rack up 75-
100 more plate appearances over the 19-game tournament that decides a winner.
With high win totals, the margin for error gets lower and lower. If the Astros start 25-27
over the first two months, they have to play .625 ball the rest of the way to get to 95 wins
and that isn’t even enough to go over this win total. That is a very thin margin for error.
That’s why I tend to mostly shy away from high win totals. Even though the Astros
clearly have the depth to be the league’s best regular season team, things happen. Injuries
happen. Hangovers happen.
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The Astros built up an insurmountable AL West lead by being 60-29 at the All-Star
Break. They were a 41-32 team in the second half with a pedestrian +34 run differential.
Did they put it in cruise control or were they simply playing way over their heads early
on? A .562 win percentage was 91 wins and still more than enough to grab the division
crown, but it really takes a high level of consistency to win this many games in one
season.
It’s hard to make a case for the under when evaluating the personnel. As I said, most
players had career years last season, but some of their careers have been pretty short.
With guys like Collin McHugh, Brad Peacock, Francis Martes, and David Paulino, the
Astros can easily overcome injuries to the starting rotation. No team can withstand the
loss of somebody like Jose Altuve or Carlos Correa for a long time, but the Astros have a
super utility man in Marwin Gonzalez that can play virtually anywhere and then they can
bring somebody up from the minors to play the position vacated.
The AL West is better. The Angels have full seasons of Shohei Ohtani and Justin Upton.
Jerry Dipoto has put together a pretty good lineup in Seattle. Oakland has been taking
some over money in the win total market. The Astros were the only team above .500 in
the NL West and got to play 129 of its 162 regular season games against teams that had
records below .500. That probably won’t happen again this season. The Astros were 18-
15 against teams with winning records. They should face some stiffer competition this
season. The Astros also drew a really poor NL East in interleague play and went 12-1
against the Braves, Marlins, Mets, and Phillies. They did lose two of three to the
Nationals.
Pick: Under 97.5 (-120, 5Dimes)
This is one of my stronger win total bets, simply because asking a team to win 98 games
to go over the total is ludicrous. If any team can do it, it is the Houston Astros. Think
about it. Houston was more than 60 percent of the way to this total in the first half last
year, which is f’ing stupid. They are a great team. They have no weaknesses.
But, still. We’ve seen a lot of great teams with no weaknesses comfortably win divisions
and not win 98 games. The AL West is a lot better this season, with a more stable bunch
in Oakland, some noteworthy additions in Anaheim, and a Seattle offense that is quite
good. Last year, the Astros were the only team above .500 in the AL West. At least one
other team will be this season and a third wouldn’t surprise me.
The World Series hangover is real. Going from the adrenaline of the playoffs to the
doldrums of the regular season is so hard. I put the data in there and we saw it play out
again in 2017. The Indians had to win 22 in a row to get out of their funk and the Cubs
never challenged their win total line. It isn’t easy to play .605 baseball over the course of
six months and that’s what Houston is being asked to do. Last year, three teams won over
97.5 games. In 2016, two did. From 2013-15, only one per season won 98+. In 2012, no
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team won 98. In 2011, one team did. It's hard. Really hard. To do it is one thing.
To expect a team to do it is another.
I’m not saying this team is bad. This team could very well repeat as champions. But, I
can’t see this team winning 98 games given all the factors mentioned above. Let’s be
honest, this was the best offense in nearly 15 years and the Astros still only won 101
games. It’s simply not easy and I’ll be playing this one on principle and because I think
there are some edges to use to our advantage.
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Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
In the pantheon of Major League Baseball contracts, the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
might have one of the absolute worst and the absolute best. Mike Trout at any price is a
bargain, but the contract Shohei Ohtani signed in order to get to Major League Baseball
quicker is a deal that could end up being one of the best in baseball. That’s good because
the Angels need some production at a cheap price to make up for the albatross that is the
Albert Pujols contract.
Ohtani, arguably the most notable free agent signing of the offseason, will make the
league minimum this season while at the MLB level. Because of the rules set forth by the
Collective Bargaining Agreement, Ohtani is considered an amateur, so he technically has
a minor league deal that will pay $545,000 at the MLB level. Sure, Ohtani got the $2.315
million dollar signing bonus, and the Angels sent $20 million to the Hokkaido Nippon
Ham Fighters, but he had the chance to make Masahiro Tanaka type money if he had
waited a couple of years to come to North America to play baseball. Instead, the 23-year-
old, two-way player wanted to get his MLB career underway. That makes the $114
million still owed to Pujols a little easier to swallow.
The California Angels of Disneyland Los Angeles Orange County Anaheim Hollywood
finished 80-82 last season. By Pythagorean Win-Loss, they were narrowly robbed of
going .500 at 81-81. BaseRuns took a much more negative view with a record of 76-86,
as the Angels were one of three teams to overachieve by four teams in that context-
neutral standings metric. By winning consecutive games just twice in September, the
Angels finished below .500. They were four games over going into the final month, so
there are some building blocks in that regard.
The Angels were one of the most active teams in an offseason that was very sloth-like.
Most teams have been waiting out the market or are in various states of rebuild and don’t
need free agents. The Angels signed Ohtani, as well as Zack Cosart and Justin Upton.
They also acquired Ian Kinsler via trade. All of the sudden, the Angels look like a team
that could chase down the Houston Astros, who were the only team with a winning
record in the AL West last season.
There were a fair amount of people high on the Angels last season and projection systems
were fairly optimistic about the pitching staff. It didn’t work out. More often than not, it
feels like a team that falls short of expectations takes that leap the next year. Will that be
the case for the Angels?
Season Win Total Odds:
5Dimes: 84.5 (-120/100)
BetOnline: 84.5 (-110/-110)
Bovada: 84.5 (-145/115)
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Additions: Ian Kinsler, Zack Cozart, Rene Rivera, Chris Young, Shohei Ohtani,
Jim Johnson, Luke Bard, Chris Carter, Emmanuel Burriss, Kevin Maitan, Jabari
Blash, Livan Soto, Rymer Liriano, Felix Pena, Ian Krol
Losses: Andrew Bailey, Jesse Chavez, Yunel Escobar, Ricky Nolasco, Bud Norris,
Cliff Pennington, Yusmeiro Petit, Brandon Phillips, Ben Revere, Fernando Salas,
Huston Street, Deolis Guerra, Shane Robinson, Eric Young, Dustin Ackley, Austin
Adams
The Angels have been busy. Arte Moreno, who said he operated the team at a loss last
season, signed off on a lot of activity this winter. The Angels acquired a lofty contract in
Ian Kinsler, signed Zack Cozart to play a position he has never really played at the MLB
level, and made the international splash to sign Shohei Ohtani.
There are a lot of Major League names on the losses list, but few of those guys are
serious impact players. Yunel Escobar has been a solid player for many years, but Cozart
is a solid replacement. Some innings need to be replaced, but the Angels have a lot of
guys that can step up and take on a bit more. Healthy seasons for Nick Tropeano and
Andrew Heaney would almost feel like free agent additions. The same can be said about
Tyler Skaggs, Garrett Richards, and Matt Shoemaker.
Why bet the over?
The Angels have better depth than they have had in recent years. Alex Meyer will miss
the entire 2018 season following shoulder surgery, but the Angels have the most upside
in the rotation that they have had in a long time. Garrett Richards spent the winter
preparing instead of rehabbing. The same can be said about Tyler Skaggs and Matt
Shoemaker. Nick Tropeano also missed all of last season and should be good to go now.
The Angels have endured a lot of injuries to pitchers over the last few seasons and the
glass is actually almost full to the top going into this season in that regard.
Michael Nelson Trout would be a Hall of Famer if he retired today. Trout, whose fourth-
place finish in the MVP voting was the lowest of his career in a full season, only
managed 507 plate appearances due to injury, but led the league in on-base percentage,
slugging percentage, and OPS. For the first time in his career, he walked more than he
struck out. He fell 49 total bases short of his 2016 total in 147 fewer plate appearances.
He had a .437 wOBA and a 181 wRC+. The defensive metrics were not kind to Trout,
proving that nobody is perfect, but it really doesn’t matter. Trout is the best player in the
universe. It certainly doesn’t hurt a season win total bet to be backing the game’s ultimate
player. He had a .161 BABIP over his final 101 plate appearances that took him from a
.329/.464/.662 slash to his .305/.442/.629 ending. So, yeah, he could have been even
better and it was his best career offensive season.
It also doesn’t hurt to have the best defensive shortstop in the game. Andrelton Simmons
was worth 32 defensive runs saved with another excellent UZR. Simmons has amassed
163 defensive runs saved in his six-year career, which roughly equates to 16 wins above
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replacement player defensively alone. This past season, however, Simmons also proved
his offensive worth. He had a .323 wOBA, which was just shy of his rookie season with
just 49 games and 182 plate appearances, and a 103 wRC+. As a result, Simmons had a
4.9 fWAR. He was more aggressive on the basepaths and hit for power for the first time
since 2013. We’ll have to see if that season for Simmons was the offensive outlier, but
his floor is remarkably high because his defense is the best in the league.
The new additions are where the Angels should create some value. Justin Upton had a
.371 wOBA and a 137 wRC+ in his 115 plate appearances with the Angels. Overall,
Upton hung a .378 wOBA with a 137 wRC+ in his 2017 season. Those numbers were
well above his career averages. He goes from a cavernous park in Detroit with a great
batter’s eye to a park that often suppresses power because of the cool marine air that
flows in and the brutal shadows for day games. Still, even if Upton’s performance does
regress to something around his career averages, he’s easily an above average player with
the opportunity to be worth 3+ fWAR. The Angels only had two position players with 2.3
fWAR or higher last season. Upton is already an instant upgrade, barring a total collapse.
There are a lot of questions surrounding Zack Cozart. Was the offensive breakout legit?
Cozart, who had never had a wRC+ over 106 or a wOBA over .328 in a full season,
posted a .392 wOBA and a 141 wRC+ with the Reds last season. His walk rate shot
through the roof and his power gains from 2016 proved to be sustainable and then some.
Cozart is a high-floor player because he is a good defender, but he’ll be moving to third
base, which he has never played at the big league level. We’ll also see a drop in his
fWAR because of the positional adjust to third base. The league average wRC+ at
shortstop was 88 with a .309 wOBA. Third base was a 102 wRC+ with a .328 wOBA.
With Cozart at third now, it will eat into his fWAR, but the bar is pretty low at third base
for the Angels. Collectively, the third basemen posted a .312 wOBA, which ranked 22nd
in baseball. Even with likely offensive regression and some growing pains moving to
third base, Cozart should be a tangible upgrade.
As far as second base goes, the Angels were atrocious last season. They ranked 28th in
fWAR at -0.3, with a .260 wOBA, which was far and away the worst in the league, and a
60 wRC+, which tied with the Texas Rangers. In other words, it takes very little for Ian
Kinsler to be an upgrade. Kinsler just had the worst offensive season of his career by a
large margin with a 91 wRC+ and a .313 wOBA. His BABIP plummeted to .244. His
walk rate increased and his strikeout rate decreased, but his contact quality was nowhere
to be found. The sad thing is that Kinsler’s xwOBA – wOBA per Baseball Savant was
about even, and he actually underachieved by just two points. His xBA – BA was low by
about seven points, so there is room for some marginal improvement if his contact quality
remains the same. Even with that offensive decline, the positional adjustment plus
Kinsler’s fielding prowess had him worth 2.4 fWAR. The days of being a five-win player
appear to be gone, but the bar is so low in Anaheim at second base that Kinsler should
vault over it with significant room to spare.
With full seasons of Upton, Kinsler, and Cozart, the Angels have thoroughly upgraded
three positions. A full year of Mike Trout wouldn’t hurt. Kole Calhoun is a solid two-win
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player that had a disappointing offensive season in 2017 and was still a slightly above
average player with 2.2 fWAR. His BABIP fell 19 points short of his career mark and his
SLG took a big tumble. He did improve in the second half with a .334 wOBA and a 111
wRC+, so I’d expect a modest bounce back. Luis Valbuena is a decent little player with
power and Martin Maldonado can’t hit, but he’s a solid defensive catcher. Add in Chris
Young, Rene Rivera, and Chris Carter to the bench and there are some things to work
with here. I won’t say I love the upside of the offense, because I think Upton, Kinsler,
and Cozart all have questions, but this is undoubtedly a better group than last season.
On the pitching side, it is literally all about the health of the starting staff. Only three
teams got fewer combined fWAR from their starting pitchers last season and those teams
were the Marlins, Reds, and White Sox. But, that’s what happens when you need 13
different starting pitchers and the four that went over 100 innings were reliever-turned-
starter JC Ramirez, Parker Bridwell, Ricky Nolasco, and swingman Jesse Chavez.
Garrett Richards tied for third on the team in fWAR and made six starts. They were six
good starts, so there’s that. Richards throws a bowling ball sinker and some decent
secondaries and can be a dominant, ground ball machine when he’s on. In the era of
launch angles, Richards’s stuff should play up even more.
Matt Shoemaker’s 3.4-win season in 2016 did seem to come out of nowhere and the
sustainability was in question, but he really fell off dramatically, as his home run rate
soared in his 77.2 innings of work. My best guess is that he’s somewhere between 2016
and 2017 in terms of production, which should put him within striking distance of a two-
win season.
I don’t know what to expect from Tyler Skaggs, who has just 187.2 innings pitched over
the last two seasons across all levels. He missed all of 2015 with Tommy John surgery
and has never really been healthy. Projection systems liked him a lot last year and seem
to be fairly optimistic this season as well.
The Angels have talked about rolling with a six-man rotation to protect their arms and
protect new investment Shohei Ohtani, whose stuff looked great in his first Spring
Training outing. Projections are hard to determine with the switch from Japan to MLB,
but there is certainly a lot to like from a raw talent standpoint and he’ll probably DH a
fair amount.
You just read about Skaggs’s workload the last three seasons. Richards has made 12
starts in two years. Andrew Heaney has six. Nick Tropeano didn’t pitch at all. Parker
Bridwell’s ERA and advanced metrics don’t really align. There is upside with all of these
guys and surpassing last year’s team performance is not hard and this was a team that
went 80-82 without its best player for a month and a half.
The bullpen isn’t great, but Blake Parker seems like a safe bet as the closer. Eventually,
JC Ramirez probably makes his way back to the pen. Cam Bedrosian was really unlucky
with a 62.8 percent LOB% that gave him a 4.43 ERA with a 3.38 FIP and a 3.84 xFIP.
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Jose Alvarez is a decent reliever. Keynan Middleton is passable. This bullpen isn’t a
strength, but it probably isn’t an overwhelming weakness either.
Something resembling league average pitching or close would be an enormous boost for
the Angels and they’re very capable of it.
Why bet the under?
There are certain realities that come along with betting season win totals. One of them for
the Angels is that you are FUBAR’d if Mike Trout goes down long-term. It just is what it
is. That’s why I prefer to back teams with a lot of depth. I prefer to avoid teams with high
win total lines. Injuries happen. They are a harsh, unforgiving reminder that the baseball
gods are cruel.
Sure, the Angels are better equipped this year than they were last year. They have Justin
Upton, Ian Kinsler, and Zack Cozart to go along with Andrelton Simmons. Still. You
don’t replace Mike Trout. You don’t replace Clayton Kershaw. You don’t replace Joey
Votto. It can’t happen. So, you are praying for Mike Trout to stay healthy. For the most
part, he has. But, you just never know.
Speaking of injuries, what the hell can we reasonably expect from this rotation? Shohei
Ohtani is the safest bet and he’s a 23-year-old kid coming over from Japan. The Angels
have eight or nine starters worthy of taking the ball in an MLB game, but we have seen
next to no durability from most of them. After all, JC Ramirez led the team in fWAR last
season with a 4.11 ERA, a 4.67 FIP, and a 4.50 xFIP. He was then shut down with
forearm pain in August. Garrett Richards threw 207.1 in 2015. He threw 34.2 in 2016 and
29.2 in 2017 across two levels. How can you bet on a guy like that?
Was Matt Shoemaker’s 2016 even a real thing? His K% dropped, his BB% increased, his
home run rate increased a ton. His fly ball stylings don’t work in today’s Juiced Ball Era,
even with the safety net of Angel Stadium. He wasn’t particularly good in 2015 either.
What are we supposed to believe? Who is the real Matt Shoemaker? If the 2015 or 2017
Matt Shoemaker shows up, the Angels could be in the same spot as last year. Parker
Bridwell will regress. You can’t help but regress from a 3.76 ERA with a 4.90 FIP and a
5.12 xFIP with a horrible strikeout rate and a 78.9 percent LOB%.
Tyler Skaggs made his Major League debut in 2012 and has only 315.2 innings across 57
starts in that span. He has a 4.59 ERA with a 4.26 FIP and a 4.18 xFIP in those frames.
So he’s basically replacement-level. The Angels want to roll with six starters, all of
whom could be replacement-level, if their arms stay together long enough to do that?
Blake Parker was good out of the bullpen. Beyond that, David Hernandez was the team’s
best reliever and he did that in 38 appearances and then left. Cam Bedrosian has both
command and control concerns. Bud Norris was pretty useful, but he’s also gone. A
resurgence from Jim Johnson would help, but that seems unlikely. Parker is the only
above average reliever of the bunch given last season’s performance.
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The AL West isn’t exactly a loaded division, but the Astros have a phenomenal offense.
The Mariners and Athletics are mostly built on offense with suspect pitching. The
Rangers can hit a little bit. Can the Angels outhit those teams in the head-to-head
matchups? Will those career years for Upton and Cozart translate? Is Ian Kinsler’s aging
curve too steep? There sure are a lot of questions with this team.
Pick: Over 84.5 (-110, Bovada)
I don’t love this pick, but I have to make one and I’ll back Mike Trout whenever
possible. The Angels offense has improved dramatically from last season. Alex Meyer is
out, but the Angels should be able to piecemeal some innings together this season with a
lot of pitching depth that was able to prepare for the season instead of rehab to make it
back for the season. That really goes a long way.
There are two reasons why I won’t be putting any money on over 84.5. The first is that a
Mike Trout injury for more than a few weeks puts this in serious jeopardy. The other
reason is that I just don’t love that bullpen. I honestly thought about going under the total
here because of my thoughts on the rest of the division, but somebody needs to win some
games. After all, the Angels won 80 games and added a full year of Justin Upton, plus
Zack Cozart, Ian Kinsler, and Shohei Ohtani, along with the pitchers returning from
injury.
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Oakland Athletics
I feel like I want to give up on the Oakland Athletics. I have no idea what they are doing
year in and year out. They need a new stadium. They need an owner with deeper pockets.
They need to find that next inefficiency that can allow them to compete in the current
climate of Major League Baseball. They’ve been a team that I’ve found what I perceive
to be value, just to have it blow up in my face. I thought I was done.
But, as they went 75-87 last season, they finished out the season on a 17-7 run just to
suck me back in (and go over last season’s win total). They’ve made some interesting
moves in free agency and have some very interesting prospects knocking on the door for
roster spots. It is really hard to do anything with the A’s on a full-season basis. Because
of the way that they need to operate, they can sell off anything not nailed down at
basically any point in time.
Per Baseball Prospectus, Oakland has five of the top 101 prospects in baseball. Two of
them are Major League-ready in Franklin Barreto and Dustin Fowler. Two more are
coming very quickly in AJ Puk and Jorge Mateo. Another is a few years away in Jesus
Luzardo. James Kaprielian would be close without Tommy John surgery, which he’ll be
back from early in the season. It isn’t a stretch to say that things probably look as good
for the A’s as they have in quite some time.
On a game-by-game basis, the A’s are going to be extremely frustrating. They have a ton
of power potential, but will rack up a lot of strikeouts. They lack an ace in the starting
rotation, but have some starters with upside and the bullpen looks sneaky good.
As challenging as it is to preview a team like this, these are some of my favorite
previews. I have the ability to dig deep and find surplus value with players. If I feel like
that is enough to take a stab at the win total, I can do so knowing that the oddsmakers
were just as perplexed about this team, but I can be more confident in my handicap. I’ve
found the value that I need.
The A’s were a 75-87 team last year with a 73-89 Pythagorean Win-Loss record, but a
79-83 record per BaseRuns, which was one of the bigger gaps in the league. BaseRuns is
a context-neutral standings metric that throws together all of the individual outcomes and
creates a run differential with runs scored per game and runs against per game. More on
that in a bit, as we look to make a case for and against the Athletics for 2018.
Season Win Total Odds:
5Dimes: 75.5 (-105/-115)
BetOnline: 74.5 (-125/105)
Bovada: 74.5 (-125/-105)
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Additions: Stephen Piscotty, Brandon Moss, Ryan Buchter, Yusmeiro Petit, Emilio
Pagan, Jonah Heim, Steve Lombardozzi, Nick Noonan, Slade Heathcott, Eric
Jokisch
Losses: Jaff Decker, Zach Neal, Chris Carter, Felix Doubront, Ryon Healy, Jaycob
Brugman, Joey Wendle, Jesse Hahn, Heath Fillmyer, Yairo Munoz, Max Schrock
One of the best trades of the offseason was Oakland’s acquisition of Stephen Piscotty. It
has some baseball upside, but the human element is better. The Cardinals had a surplus of
outfielders, so they were able to let Piscotty go, but the A’s and Cardinals combined on a
deal that would send the outfielder to Oakland so that he could be closer to his mom, who
is battling ALS. It was a baseball deal that made sense, with both teams dealing from
positions of strength, but also one that warms our cold, dead hearts.
I love the Ryan Buchter acquisition for the A’s. Brandon Moss adds some depth to the
outfield. Yusmeiro Petit is a really valuable swingman that can spot start or be a multi-
inning reliever. None of the losses are all that significant. The A’s felt comfortable
moving Ryon Healy, whose primary skill has been counterfeited a bit by the launch angle
revolution. He also doesn’t have a defensive position and Oakland has plenty of those
guys already.
Why bet the over?
The Astros really skewed the grading curve, so they were that kid in school that
everybody hated, but the Athletics were one of eight teams to post a wRC+ above league
average. They posted a 102 wRC+ with a .323 wOBA. Adjustments to O.co Coliseum
certainly helped, but not nearly as much as Oakland’s penchant for hitting dingers. The
A’s trotted around the bases 234 times last season. Only the Yankees, Astros, and
Rangers did that more often. Oakland is at the forefront of the fly ball revolution at the
MLB level with a 41.1 percent FB%. That was tops in the league by 1.5 percent over the
Mets. Unfortunately, Oakland ranked 18th in Pull%. That being said, they still finished
fourth in home runs. This is a team that will attempt to play Home Run Derby all year in
2018 and they have the pieces to do it.
The Athletics have a very interesting set of players. Khris Davis is the biggest boom or
bust player on the team. Davis struck out 29.9 percent of the time, but also hit 43 dingers
and posted an 11.2 percent walk rate. If you’ve heard of the Three True Outcomes, they
are strikeouts, walks, and home runs. Davis had a strikeout or walk over 40 percent of the
time and then hit 43 HR. The end result was a .247/.336/.528 slash with a .361 wOBA
and a 128 wRC+. He’s a horrible defensive outfielder, but he does enough to outhit his
mistakes.
Two of the most interesting players in the league this season are Matt Chapman and Matt
Olson. Chapman played 84 games and posted a decent .234/.313/.472 slash in 326 plate
appearances with a .332 wOBA and a 108 wRC+. He was also robbed of a Gold Glove at
third base, presumably because he only played half the season. Chapman accumulated 19
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defensive runs saved at the hot corner with an exceptional UZR. The A’s haven’t had a
defensive player like that since Josh Donaldson, who is pretty damn good.. A guy that
can play elite defense and hit north of a league average level is an extremely valuable
player. Chapman’s hit tool isn’t great, but his power tool is and he regularly posted
double-digit walk rates in the minor leagues. It was 9.8 percent at the MLB level last
season when he amassed 2.7 fWAR in those 84 games. He’s a big piece in terms of
surplus value for this season.
Olson should be as well. The hulking 1B/OF is the primary reason why Ryon Healy was
traded. Olson hit 24 home runs in just 216 plate appearances last season. Across two
levels, he hit 47 HR in 559 plate appearances. He slashed .259/.352/.651 with a .411
wOBA and a 162 wRC+. For being a big boy, he was actually a pretty useful fielder at
first base and in the outfield. If you’re looking for some value on the Home Run King or
in your fantasy drafts, Matt Olson is that dude. He walks at a high clip if you’re in an
OBP or OPS league and he’s got light tower power. He had 2.0 fWAR last season.
In Chapman and Olson, we’re looking at 4.7 fWAR from last season, but I would easily
peg the two of them to combine for 6+ fWAR this season, with Chapman likely carrying
the load with his defense. They could be even higher than that. The A’s took a circuitous
route to get there, but still won 75 games last season. This offense is going to be a hell of
a lot better with full seasons of these guys. This is a low-average offense, but numerous
guys can draw walks. They’re going to wear out pitchers and hit a lot of mistakes out of
the ballpark. It is a fun offensive profile in the Juiced Ball Era.
Jed Lowrie is one of the few contact-based hitters in this lineup and he did a nice job of
that with a .277/.360/.448 slash. Marcus Semien was nearly league average offensively,
but his sole job this year will be to keep the position warm for Franklin Barreto. Semien
had a 96 wRC+ and actually got a lot better defensively than he was a few years ago.
Matt Joyce is a good platoon component in the outfield on the fat side of the platoon with
a .253/.346/.509 slash against righties and a really strong .270/.340/.549 slash in the
second half. He’ll move to the easier corner in left field with Stephen Piscotty on the
roster.
Piscotty found out about his mother’s diagnosis in May and he had a horrible offensive
season. We’ll see if being closer can give him some peace of mind and lead to a bounce
back. Keep in mind that this is a kid that had a full-season slash of .273/.343/.457 in 2016
with a .345 wOBA and a 116 wRC+. Sometimes it isn’t all performance-based or
regression. Sometimes it is something away from the field. I’m certainly confident in
betting on a Piscotty bounce back, as he walked at a great clip and also spent some time
injured. He’ll deepen this lineup and played above average defense in the outfield this
past season. Piscotty was worth 0.2 fWAR last season after a 2.8 fWAR season in 2016.
I’d expect him to be much closer to that 2016 season and I’m looking for some surplus
value here.
I really do like this offense. Which brings me back to the BaseRuns discussion in the
intro. With the bases empty, the A’s were seventh in wOBA at .325 and struck out 24
110
percent of the time. With runners in scoring position, the A’s were 29th in wOBA at .298
and struck out 25.4 percent of the time. The strikeouts didn’t help, but what ultimately
looks to be the problem is sequencing luck. Balls didn’t fall in. The solo homers didn’t
come with men on base. That’s why Oakland was such a big underachiever in the
BaseRuns department. With a better offense this season, I think the A’s could see more
fortunes in that regard.
Not all of the problems for the Athletics pitching staff falls are self-inflicted. The A’s
were abhorrent defensively last year. Even with Matt Chapman’s dynamic performance at
the hot corner to balance things out, the A’s were -48 defensive runs saved and -42 in
UZR. Only the Phillies, Tigers, and Mets were worse in the DRS department and nobody
came particularly close in UZR or UZR/150. Maybe the foul territory plays a pretty
notable role, but the A’s will be better this season.
Matt Joyce moves to left field, a much easier position to play, with Stephen Piscotty
shifting to right. Khris Davis, one of the worst defensive outfielders in baseball, should
DH more often than not. Full seasons of Matt Chapman and Matt Olson will help
tremendously. Marcus Semien’s development has helped, but he’ll be replaced by slick-
fielding Franklin Barreto at some point soon. That will be a big upgrade. Jaycob
Brugman and Yonder Alonso were both bad defenders and they have been moved.
A new lifetime high in strikeouts for Major League Baseball happens year after year at
this point. Unfortunately, Oakland doesn’t have many swing-and-miss dudes in the
rotation. Only the White Sox, Marlins, and Rangers got a lower K% from starting
pitchers last season, so the defense plays a significant role on this Oakland team. It will
again this season.
The rotation is not all that impressive. Kendall Graveman, Sean Manaea, Daniel
Mengden, Andrew Triggs, and Paul Blackburn are slated as the first five starters right
now, with Chris Bassitt, Daniel Gossett, and Jharel Cotton serving as the primary depth.
Graveman is one of those guys that the industry loves, but the results haven’t been there.
Many metrics rave about Graveman’s command and his GB% is usually quite solid.
Health was an issue last season as he posted a 4.19 ERA with a 4.33 FIP and a 4.54 xFIP.
Sean Manaea is the guy that I can’t quit. Manaea also has a spotty health history, but had
a 4.37 ERA with a 4.10 FIP and a 4.53 xFIP last season. Because FIP is such a huge
component of Fangraphs’s WAR calculation and league average is so bad nowadays,
Manaea posted an above average season. His first half was really strong, as batters only
posted a .290 wOBA and he had 93 strikeouts in 93.1 innings. His second half was awful
with a .379 wOBA against and just 47 strikeouts in 65.1 innings. I’m still buying the
upside. He’s my favorite arm in this rotation and I’d expect another above average
season. This could be the breakout year with a better defense as well.
I’m not sure what to totally make of the cavalcade of back-end options. Andrew Triggs
showed some contact management skills at times, but he misses very few bats. The same
with Daniel Mengden. Paul Blackburn had a 3.22 ERA and regularly had ERAs better
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than his FIP and xFIP marks, but he really doesn’t miss bats. Jharel Cotton has the most
upside of any option, but his command is all over the place. The good thing is that the
A’s have options and league average isn’t overly difficult to obtain. A better defense will
help.
I’m digging the bullpen a lot. Blake Treinen, acquired in the Sean Doolittle deal with
Washington, has arguably the game’s best sinker and a really fun arsenal. Liam Hendriks
had a great strikeout rate en route to a 3.22 FIP and a 3.66 xFIP last season. His 4.22
ERA should come down with some positive regression in his 65.5 percent LOB%. Chris
Hatcher is a pretty reliable arm. Ryan Buchter is my favorite upside arm in the pen with
143 strikeouts in 128.1 innings over the last two seasons. Yusmeiro Petit was extremely
valuable last season for the Angels in 60 appearances covering 91.1 innings with a 2.2
fWAR.
One final note I’ll make here. Oakland was 46-35 at home last season. I’ve discussed this
before, but playing in Oakland is very hard for visiting teams from the East Coast. In
2016, the A’s won home series over Cleveland, Detroit, Boston, Toronto, and Texas, who
were five of the league’s better teams. Last season, Oakland took three of four from
Boston, swept the Yankees in a four-gamer, and swept the Indians right after the All-Star
Break. They also took two of three from Minnesota and swept Houston in September. It
is a hard place to play. It is cavernous. It is dark. It is dingy. Road teams don’t like
playing there, especially if they are stopping in Seattle, which is often a favorite of
visiting players, or Anaheim. There is value in this concept that few people talk about.
Why bet the under?
The sequencing gods can be mean and spiteful sometimes. The A’s are a team built on
the Three True Outcomes. They hit home runs. They draw walks. They swing and miss.
Sometimes those good outcomes don’t come when you need them, as we saw last season.
Oakland needed a 17-7 run at the end to get over the season win total. HR, BB, BB, K, K,
K is the same as BB, BB, K, K, HR, K, right? Wrong. The first example is one run. The
second example is three runs. You have to run on the right side of sequencing and
variance with a team like this because they are going to go through long spells when it
feels like a hit with RISP is like bagging a 10 as a 2. It’s just how it goes with an offense
constructed in this manner. Inherently, that makes Oakland a little bit of a high-variance
team.
Which is not at all what you want with this pitching staff. As far as I’m concerned, the
only starter penciled into the rotation with above average upside is Sean Manaea. I want
to like Kendall Graveman, especially with the defensive gains, but he and Manaea ranked
409th and 410th in average exit velocity against out of 438 pitchers with at least 100
batted ball events. They didn’t allow a lot of barrels, but still allowed a lot of hard
contact. Manaea has some swing and miss with a couple of plus secondaries. Fastball
command and health have held him back. I think he can be better than average, but I
don’t see it from anybody else.
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After all, Sonny Gray was second in fWAR and he was traded to New York. Jesse Hahn
was third in fWAR and he just got traded to Kansas City. Graveman was fourth. Reliever
Ryan Madson was fifth and he was traded. This is not a particularly strong pitching staff.
The A’s will be reliant on Manaea to stay healthy and probably need Graveman to do the
same, as he’s the best of the remaining bunch.
Liam Hendriks was 429th out of 438 pitchers in average exit velocity against, so maybe
that positive regression towards his advanced metrics isn’t coming. He’ll likely draw a lot
of the leverage assignments in a setup capacity as a bridge to Blake Treinen.
We’re talking about a starting rotation that had 158.2 innings from Manaea, 105.1 from
Graveman, 43 from Daniel Mengden, 65.1 from Andrew Triggs, and 58.2 from Paul
Blackburn, who only had 22 strikeouts in those 58.2 innings of work. It is hard to slap
projections on guys like that. Furthermore, as I’ve mentioned, Manaea is the only starter
with notable swing-and-miss. The defense is better, but balls in play are rarely a good
thing, especially with some guys that have some exit velocity problems.
Can Matt Chapman and Matt Olson sustain what they started? Chapman is a high-floor
player with his defense, but the offensive upside would be nice to keep around. Olson had
a 41.4 percent HR/FB% with a 46 percent FB%, which is mind-blowing. And
unsustainable. He’s not a guy that has a ton of offensive tools unless he’s hitting home
runs. He has a pretty good walk rate, but so do a lot of other A’s hitters and somebody is
going to have to get a hit every now and then.
Bruce Maxwell is slated to be the starting catcher after a poor offensive showing in 253
plate appearances. He was also bad defensively. Boog Powell’s small sample size was
fun, but we really don’t know what the A’s have in him just yet and projection systems
aren’t very bullish. He has also had a lot of problems staying healthy on his way up the
ranks, including a knee injury that cut his 2017 season short.
This division is pretty tough. Last season, the Astros ran away with it thanks to a 60-29
start to the season, but nobody in the West lost more than 87 games. The Angels clearly
got better with their upgrades and additions. The Rangers still have some guys that can
hit and so do the Mariners. The A’s lost 12 of the 19 games to each of Houston,
Anaheim, and Seattle, but went 11-8 against the Rangers. They were just 29-52 away
from home with a -100 run differential. That needs to be fixed this season. Power should
translate everywhere, but the starting pitchers have road issues because they don’t miss
bats and don’t have that safety net of O.co Coliseum.
Pick: Over 74.5 (-125, BetOnline and Bovada)
I’m actually all about this play. It is not a coincidence that three of my strongest AL win
total plays come from this division. When you get a run like Houston’s last season, it can
skew some things. The A’s are going to hit and their offense is built for the current
landscape of Major League Baseball. Perhaps you’ve heard the term Gorilla Ball when it
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comes to baseball. The A’s play that. They hit a ton of dingers and swing with immense
power. I kind of like that. It intrigues me a lot.
The A’s did need a 17-7 run to end the year to close out the season by going over their
win total, but I like this team more than last season’s. I love that prospect reinforcements
are very close to coming up. I like that this team projects to be a lot better defensively.
And, I really love the point I made about teams in the AL East and AL Central struggling
in Oakland. It happens year after year. It just isn’t an enticing place to play and teams
play like that. Oakland regularly wins series at home over superior teams. In that respect,
it is an underappreciated home field advantage.
I do have one play that I like more in the AL West, but Oakland to go over the total is a
pretty close second.
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Seattle Mariners
The Seattle Mariners had a lot of adversity to overcome last season. The team used a
league-high 61 players, including 40 pitchers, because of injuries, ineffectiveness, and
Jerry Dipoto’s unending desire to overhaul the roster. The offense was pretty decent, but
the pitching staff was not, and the Mariners missed the playoffs once again by a large
margin.
Since the last division title in 2001, when the Mariners won 116 games, the team has not
finished less than three games behind the AL West champion. The closest the Mariners
have been since 2007 is nine games back, which happened in 2016. Things don’t exactly
look promising for a postseason push this season either, as the Mariners lack pitching.
But, the offense could be a whole lot of fun and there may be some good opportunities to
back the Mariners.
The Mariners were a modest underachiever last season. Their actual 78-84 record was
accompanied by a 79-83 mark per Pythagorean Win-Loss and an 80-82 record by
BaseRuns. Only the Astros, Rangers, and Mets had fewer wins over teams with a .500 or
better record last season, as the M’s went 20-32 in those games. The concerning thing
here is that they were 26-15 in one-run games and still managed to be such a bad team
overall. The Mariners were also on the plus side of eight blowout wins. Usually, those are
two areas where we look for regression when projecting next season’s performance, but
the Mariners actually fared pretty well and still went six games under .500. That would
appear to be a bad sign at first glance.
The Mariners were just 4-11 over the last 15 games to go from being about .500 to
finishing six games under the mark. They never had a chance of reaching the mid-80s
season win total, so the late skid was mostly irrelevant.
Teams like these are some of my least favorite win totals to write. The Mariners needed
an absurd amount of reinforcements last season. Seventeen different pitchers had to make
starts. What am I supposed to do with that? While I know that the Mariners probably
won’t need as many this year, who is healthy? Who will be effective? Will anybody?
Let’s try to sort through this as much as we can and see if there is an edge to be had one
way or another.
Season Win Total Odds:
5Dimes: 81.5 (-120/100)
BetOnline: 81.5 (-120/100)
Bovada: 81.5 (-125/-105)
Additions: Dee Gordon, Mike Ford, Andrew Romine, Juan Nicasio, Shawn
Armstrong, Mike Morin, Ryon Healy, David Freitas, Matt Hague, Zach Vincej,
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Cam Perkins, Kirk Nieuwenheis, Junior Lake, Sam Moll, Chasen Bradford, Nick
Rumbelow
Losses: Ernesto Frieri, Ryan Weber, Yonder Alonso, Jarrod Dyson, Yovani
Gallardo, Carlos Ruiz, Danny Valencia, Tyler Cloyd, Evan Marshall, Micah
Owings, Alexander Campos, Emilio Pagan, Thyago Vieira, Shae Simmons, Drew
Smyly, Andrew Albers
This offseason has been a busy one for the Mariners, which we’ve come to expect under
Jerry Dipoto. Dipoto really expected to land Shohei Ohtani. Several decisions made
throughout the course of the offseason were focused on acquiring enough international
bonus money to land Ohtani. The Mariners were able to offer the biggest signing bonus,
but Ohtani opted to sign with the Angels instead.
That miss seems to have watered down the additions of guys like Dee Gordon, Juan
Nicasio, and Ryon Healy, who are all useful players for the Mariners to acquire. Gordon
slots very nicely into this potent lineup with his speed element and table-setting ability.
Healy, once healthy, will be a decent power option at first base. Nicasio is immediate
help to the bullpen.
None of the losses are overly significant. Some aging veterans immersed in decline plus
Yonder Alonso. Andrew Albers looked good in his six starts, but he, like most of the
losses, is a fringe type of player.
Why bet the over?
The Mariners will continue to hit. Any and all questions about the pitching staff are fair
game, but there aren’t a lot of questions about this offense. Seattle posted a .321 wOBA
with a 102 wRC+ last season. That 102 wRC+ was tied for fifth with the Twins and
Athletics. The Mariners hit exactly 200 home runs. One big difference between the
Mariners and the other offenses in this range is that they had a low walk rate of 7.9
percent. The park factor adjustments for Safeco Field helped.
The four above average regulars in the Seattle lineup also helped. Kyle Seager slashed
.249/.323/.450 with a .326 wOBA and a 106 wRC+. Seager only had a .262 BABIP,
which was 23 points below his career average. He’s a high-floor player with good
defense and really consistent offense, but the BABIP falling so far was pretty interesting
this past season. Seager’s expected batting average and wOBA per Statcast were both
above his actual outcomes, but only slightly, so maybe there is some sort of contact
quality decline. I’d like to think that a player with his contact rate should bounce back a
bit. Even if he doesn’t, this is a solid profile overall.
Robinson Cano isn’t really the $24 million dollar man the Mariners thought he would be,
but he’s still a safe, solid bet. Cano reportedly dealt with a lower-body injury in the
second half last year that zapped his power. His SLG dropped 61 points in the second
half from .481 to .420. He was still an above average offensive piece and has a high floor.
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It is fair to wonder if the aging curve will start to show for the 35-year-old, but he’s
safely an above average regular going into this season.
Nelson Cruz keeps right on raking. Cruz will turn 38 on July 1, but he’s still swinging it
well. Last season he improved both his BB% and his K%, so we’ll see what that means
going forward. Either way, he nearly matched his 2016 performance. Even if the aging
curve starts to impact his performance, he’ll remain 35 percent or more above league
average offensively. He can’t play a position, but he can hit and that matters.
Jean Segura fell just short of being a three-win player. That trade with the Diamondbacks,
in which the Mariners traded away Taijuan Walker, worked out for both teams, though
you have to wonder if the Mariners would rather have the pitcher given their issues on
that side. What’s done is done and Segura was a decent defender and an above average
offensive piece at a weak offensive position with a .334 wOBA and a 111 wRC+.
The core for the Mariners is really big here because they’re going to need to score a lot of
runs. Dee Gordon should help in that role. Gordon isn’t beloved by the new offensive
metrics because light-hitting speedsters that don’t walk generally aren’t appreciated, but
Gordon had a solid .341 OBP and stole 60 bases. He’ll be an above average player for the
Mariners. We’re looking at a baseline of probably 15 wins above replacement player
from these five guys.
We can keep going and add in Mike Zunino, who slashed .251/.331/.509 last season with
a .355 wOBA and a 126 wRC+. Mitch Haniger was also a 2.5-win player thanks to a
.282/.352/.491 slash. Ben Gamel was a good offensive piece until the pitchers started to
adjust and he couldn’t. First base is the only real negative for the Mariners right now with
Ryon Healy out, but he should be an average type of player at the corner.
Basically, the Mariners are fielding a team with seven average or above position players.
You’re not going to find many teams that have this luxury. “Average” sounds like a bad
thing, but it really isn’t. There are a lot of below average players taking up roster spots
around the league. To be able to be competent at nearly every position in the lineup is an
enormous asset and it cannot be overlooked. This Mariners offense is very good.
James Paxton’s 2016 breakout season continued in 2017. Paxton was a 4.6-win pitcher in
just 24 starts. Unfortunately, the thing that has held Paxton back did so once again, as he
couldn’t stay healthy and was limited to 136 innings. Either way, in today’s specialized
game, Paxton’s 136 elite-level innings were more than good enough. He posted a 2.98
ERA with a 2.61 FIP and a 3.25 xFIP. He struck out 156 and walked just 37. He missed
barrels with the best of them. His velocity gains stuck around. There is a lot to love about
Paxton, no matter how many innings he gives. The more innings he can give, the better
off the Mariners will be.
Felix Hernandez is a very old 32. Well, he’ll turn 32 on April 8, so this is effectively his
age-32 season. The King is no longer the King. He’s worked just 240 innings over the
last two seasons. He had a 3.82 ERA with a 4.63 FIP and a 4.45 xFIP in 2016 over 153.1
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innings. This past season, he had a 4.36 ERA with a 5.02 FIP and a 4.03 xFIP. Perhaps
the xFIP is what we want to focus on, since Hernandez posted never-before-seen HR
rates as far as his career goes. The K% bounced back and the BB% went down. He still
knows how to pitch. He still has good secondaries. I don’t want to give up completely,
especially since league average is so poor nowadays. A 4.50 ERA with a 4.50 FIP and a
4.50 xFIP is virtually league average. Felix is capable of that, so long as he’s healthy.
You just have to have realistic expectations about him and I feel like I do. I think he can
return to being a slightly above average pitcher, but I’d cap the ceiling at that. It’s still
passable with an offense like this.
Mike Leake is a pretty solid #2/#3 type of guy. Leake only made five starts with the
Mariners after the trade last season. He was bothered by a sore lat muscle and was a late
addition. Leake is not capable of the 2.53 ERA with a 2.25 FIP and a 3.40 xFIP that he
posted. Nevertheless, Leake has the upside of an above average starter. In 2016, he was
victimized by a low LOB% that took good peripherals and turned them into a 4.69 ERA.
Leake’s 3.92 ERA with a 3.90 FIP and a 3.91 xFIP isn’t an impossible slash line to
replicate. In the AL, I’d expect a bit of regression, but he’s still likely to finish above
average. That would give Seattle two above average starters. If the Felix
Hernandez/Erasmo Ramirez/Marco Gonzales/Ariel Miranda combination doesn’t hurt the
team too much, there might be something here. Max Povse could also be a surprise
contributor as the team’s fourth-best prospect per Baseball Prospectus.
On the relief side, Edwin Diaz is one of the better closers in baseball, so there’s nothing
to worry about there. Nick Vincent had a 3.20 ERA with a 2.82 FIP in 64.2 innings of
work and was nearly a two-fWAR reliever. Juan Nicasio will be a nice addition. James
Pazos is a decent matchup lefty. David Phelps is a quality reliever with some starting
upside if need be. This is a bullpen that won’t hurt the team at all and could be a pretty
productive group. It will have to be because it will likely see a lot of innings.
Why bet the under?
This starting staff has potential to be very bad. Felix Hernandez is probably done, to be
totally honest. Injuries certainly haven’t helped, but the depth of his arsenal just isn’t
there anymore. He’s already thrown over 2,500 innings by the age of 32. That is a really
heavy workload to say the least. He worked 230+ innings in five of six seasons from
2009-2014. We’re seeing the after effects of that type of abuse on the arm. Last season
marked the third straight for Felix with a below average fastball per PITCHf/x pitch
values. His curveball has lost some bite. His changeup still has above average upside, but
there really isn’t a whole lot beyond that. At least the decline of his velocity stopped last
season, but his injury situation is so concerning that I can’t buy into a bounce back.
It’s hard with guys like Hernandez, who still can show flashes and have some outings that
are throwbacks to the past, but there aren’t a whole lot of those to go around anymore.
The elite command seems to have eroded. The ground ball rates are dropping and any
increase in hard contact or fly balls is a very bad thing these days. Hitters have been able
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to pull Felix more frequently with the velocity loss. It is not a pretty picture for one of the
game’s former best.
I certainly adore James Paxton and what he has been able to do with more velocity, but
the durability questions just won’t go away. Paxton worked 140 innings last season. They
were great innings. I cannot take that away from him. The skills look sustainable. But, if
he misses any significant length of time this season, the Mariners are absolutely screwed
on the starting pitching front. Mike Leake could very well be the team’s only above
average starter and that’s if he translates well to the American League. Depth is such a
big component of my season previews and the Mariners just don’t have enough of it on
the starting side.
They have warm bodies. They have guys that gained some MLB experience. They don’t
have much that grades out as being above replacement-level. Ariel Miranda would seem
to have some upside with some really good swing and miss in his profile, but his home
run rates at the MLB level don’t inspire a ton of confidence. Even when he had a 3.88
ERA in 2016, it came with a 5.25 FIP and a 5.06 xFIP.
Erasmo Ramirez already has a lat injury and those often linger, so it has already started
for the Mariners. Ramirez has some upside, as evidenced by his 2.3-win season in 2015,
but it isn’t a profile to love and he’s probably another below average arm.
Nobody has ever really questioned Dee Gordon’s athleticism, but with Jean Segura at
shortstop, Robinson Cano at second base, and Nelson Cruz an everyday DH, Gordon will
be pushed out to center field for the first time in his career. It’s hard to believe that
Gordon is only 29, but it will be interesting to see what playing the outfield does to him
physically. Will he have as much explosiveness on the bases? Will he take to the position
or will the Mariners have to figure out some sort of alternative? The way the offense is
constructed, this has to work. Maybe he can try left field, but Gordon will be an
outfielder no matter what. How that works for a staff that features some fly ball pitchers
remains to be seen.
It didn’t really have too much of an impact on the Mariners last season, but two of their
key offensive components are on the wrong side of 35. Robinson Cano’s contact
authority took a hit last season. We’ll see if it was the lower-body issue or not, but it’s
hard to ignore the 80-point drop in slugging percentage and the drop in BABIP despite a
lot more balls in play. Cano hit 16 fewer home runs. It was more like Cano’s 2015
season. As the definition of average offensive player rises in the Juiced Ball Era, we
could be looking at Cano as more of a 2.5-win player than the 3.2-win player he was last
season. His year-to-year defensive metrics are kind of all over the map, so it’s a little bit
tricky to see if he’s falling off defensively. The 2016 seems to be an outlier in just about
every way, so I would never expect another one of those. Just how far he falls from last
year is worth watching.
Nelson Cruz had a better second half than first half, but he did strike out over 25 percent
of the time in the second half. He also hit for more power, so it was a fair trade-off, but
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you know we have to consider these K% increases with somebody that turns 38 early in
the season. Similarly, Mike Zunino’s one-year breakout has to be met with some
skepticism. Zunino was a .207/.318/.470 hitter in 2016 and then a .251/.331/.509 hitter in
2017. He struck out 36.8 percent of the time, hit a lot of home runs, and still carried a
.355 BABIP. I’ll be looking for regression from him as well.
The bench isn’t great and the organizational depth is lacking. With some over-30 starters
in both the lineup and the rotation, I’d feel better to see more MLB-ready talent. There
isn’t any. Furthermore, the Mariners have zero prospects in Baseball Prospectus’s top
101. Cruz is an impending free agent. Several bullpen arms have movable contracts. The
Mariners look, at least to me, to be stuck behind the Astros and Angels and I could make
a case for the Athletics to finish ahead of them as well. In other words, I don’t expect this
team to be a playoff contender, which means that players will be on the move if need be.
Pick: Under 81.5 (+100, 5Dimes or BetOnline)
This is not a strong pick at all. The Mariners are a higher-variance team to me. If James
Paxton stays healthy and Felix Hernandez looks anything like his former self, then the
Mariners can make some noise in the Wild Card chase. The offense has potential to be
that good and I do really like the bullpen. Bullpens are so important for me. The defense
could be all over the place, especially with the Dee Gordon experiment in center field.
Unfortunately, I’ll have to lean to the under here because there are so many injury
concerns. If the Mariners stay as healthy as possible, they can be in the mid-80s and
possibly chase down a Wild Card berth. If they don’t, then I think .500 is about the
ceiling for this team and I’m not interested in over bets when the ceiling is this close.
There are just too many questions for me to have a strong opinion and the Mariners are a
team that could win 85 or win 75. With the number right in between, I’m basically
betting on health and I’m not interested in that.
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Texas Rangers
The Texas Rangers have only finished last in the American League West Division once
since 2008. In that span, they have five playoff appearances, including two World Series
losses, and four division titles. It has been one of baseball’s less heralded runs of this
decade. Maybe because those World Series appearances feel so far away, but the Rangers
had one off year in 2014 and were a consistent threat for the majority of those years.
It looks like that window is now shut. The Rangers lost the AL West by 23 games last
season. That wasn’t entirely their fault, since they finished 78-84, but Texas gave up over
800 runs for the first time since 2008. Take a look at the team’s makeup on Roster
Resource and things don’t look very promising. As the rest of the division builds up, the
Rangers have had a very marginal offseason and look like a team that may be trying to
gear up for next year’s impressive free agent class.
It wasn’t a bad run of injuries or anything last season that hurt the Rangers. They used 51
players and 31 pitchers. They’ve used 31 pitchers each of the last three seasons. Back in
2014, when the team lost 95 games, 64 total players were needed, including 40 pitchers.
That was the outlier in a run of division crowns and second-place finishes. It feels like
things are changing down in Arlington.
On one hand, this isn’t a bad time to retool. The Astros are head, shoulders, knees, and
toes ahead of everybody else in the division, but the Angels, Mariners, and Athletics have
all built up pretty decent offenses. For the Rangers, contention would be difficult in any
context right now, so it isn’t a bad time to re-assess the team’s identity and direction.
With a payroll around $130 million, this is the lowest that the Rangers have been in a
while and they only have $72.5 million and change committed for next season with
arguably the best FA class we’ve ever seen.
On the other hand, that is a tough sell for a fan base that has been spoiled this decade. It is
a tough sell for Nolan Ryan and the rest of the team’s leadership, as the Rangers have
consistently been a buyer in hopes of keeping this run going.
The Rangers were actually a game better than their 78-84 mark per Pythagorean Win-
Loss at 79-83 with a -17 run differential. Per BaseRuns, the Rangers were a 78-84 team.
We’re not talking about any big outliers, which is good. This is just a pure handicap of
the team moving forward.
Season Win Total Odds:
5Dimes: 76.5 (-110/-110)
BetOnline: 77 (-110/-110)
Bovada: 77.5 (125/-155)
Additions: Juan Centeno, Carlos Tocci, Matt Moore, Mike Minor, Doug Fister, Tim
Lincecum, Bartolo Colon, Chris Martin, Curt Casali, Michael Ohlman, Darwin
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Barney, Trevor Plouffe, Brett Eibner, Destin Hood, Edinson Volquez, Ronald
Herrera, Jon Niese, Erik Goeddel, Kevin Jepsen, Deolis Guerra, Steve Delabar,
Shawn Tolleson
Losses: Tanner Scheppers, Preston Claiborne, Will Middlebrooks, Andrew
Cashner, Carlos Gomez, Miguel Gonzalez, Jason Grilli, Dario Alvarez, Mike Napoli,
AJ Griffin, Nick Martinez
Meh. Mike Minor is the only real standout acquisition, despite our unbridled love for Big
Sexy Bartolo Colon. The Rangers intend to use Minor as a starting pitcher despite his
overwhelming success as a reliever for the Royals last season. Minor hasn’t been an
effective starter since 2013.
The Rangers brought in a bunch of journeymen and guys that they can use and abuse in
what is likely a down year. They’re going to be looking to plug-and-play depth on the
bench and in spot start roles. Edinson Volquez is actually out for all of the 2018 season,
so that is a move for next season when the Rangers expect to need his services in the
rotation.
The Rangers are gambling on Tim Lincecum, who could very well step in and be the
closer on Opening Day.
Why bet the over?
Well, the Rangers should still have a pretty productive offense. Five players return from
last year’s team that posted a wRC+ of 107 or higher. Keep in mind that Globe Life Park
is a very good spot for hitters, but wRC+ does adjust for park factor, so these numbers
have been adjusted based on the run environment in the Lone Star State.
Adrian Beltre’s name was atop that list. The ageless wonder did miss some time with
injuries this past season, but still managed to slash .312/.383/.532 in his 389 plate
appearances. He posted a .384 wOBA and a 138 wRC+. The 38-year-old missed a
significant number of games for the first time since 2011, so there is no reason to expect
any lingering concerns, outside of the normal effects of aging. His K% did climb a bit last
season, which merits watching, but he also posted a career-best 10 percent BB%. That led
to a sizable bump in his on-base percentage, which led to his best offensive season since
2012 by wOBA. He’s still an above average defender at the hot corner as well. Beltre is a
surefire Hall of Famer for me and hopefully many others. He needs 38 homers to get to
500. It won’t happen this year, but it should happen next year and cement his place in the
hallowed halls of Cooperstown. He’s a player that should provide some surplus value
after missing about 40 percent of last season.
As long as you are willing to take Joey Gallo for what he is, you’re going to come away
impressed. Gallo strikes out a ton. He also walks a lot and has prodigious power. That
high walk rate allowed Gallo to post a .333 OBP, which was above league average,
despite a strikeout in 36.8 percent of his plate appearances and not a ton of great contact
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quality outside of the 41 home runs he hit. Gallo had a .537 SLG, which led the team, and
posted a .364 wOBA with a 123 wRC+. He hits for power, draws, walks, and plays in the
Juiced Ball Era, so we’re looking at a pretty high floor. Gallo was also thrust into third
base duty with Beltre out. He played admirably at third, but he’ll be less hurtful at first
base this season.
There were some glaring questions about Elvis Andrus’s 2016 breakout. Was it
sustainable? Andrus posted a .344 wOBA with a 112 wRC+ in 2016. His previous career
highs in those departments came in 2012 with a 97 wRC+ and a .322 wOBA. I’m not
entirely sure I want to buy in just yet, but Andrus did hit 20 home runs after hitting 25
over the previous eight seasons combined, including a 2010 season with zero dingers in
674 plate appearances. The power spike covered the gap of his 25-point drop in OBP, so
he posted a similar offensive season to 2016. He also took some positive strides
defensively. The end result was a four-win player at a position where offense is pretty
scarce.
Shin-Soo Choo continued to be a solid hitter last season with a .261/.356/.423 slash. His
12.1 percent walk rate has become a staple in this lineup and he improved the quality of
his contact last year. Mix in a little bit of Robinson Chirinos, who had a career-best 127
wRC+ and .369 wOBA, and back-to-back 20-homer seasons from Nomar Mazara and
you have a pretty deep lineup capable of getting a lot of traffic on the bases and hitting
home runs.
We’ll see if we can get some value offensively from Willie Calhoun. Calhoun hit 31
homers between Triple-A Oklahoma City and Triple-A Round Rock last season. He
added his first big league blast in 37 plate appearances at the MLB level. Calhoun is only
23 and has raked at every stop in the minors. Baseball Prospectus named him Texas’s
second-best prospect, while Baseball America gave him organizational honors.
On the pitching side of the ledger, Cole Hamels will be looking for a bounce back effort.
The 34-year-old really fell off the map last season with a 4.20 ERA, a 4.62 FIP, and a
4.83 xFIP in his 148 innings of work. His strikeout rate took an enormous tumble, but he
was spared of an even worse season by a .251 BABIP against. Hamels’s 17.1 percent K%
was the lowest of his career at any level except for his opening stint in A-ball back in
2006. That was one start. We typically see pitchers gradually fall off instead of tumble
with reckless abandon. Hamels still knows how to pitch, as evidenced by all the weak
contact he induced, so there’s hope for a bounce back.
Matt Moore is only one season removed from a 2.3-win season with a 4.08 ERA, a 4.17
FIP, and a 4.56 xFIP. He has been a reliable innings eater over the last two season and the
Rangers really don’t need much more than that with the upside of the offense.
Sometimes starting pitchers can find some things working out of the bullpen. Carlos
Carrasco’s breakout for the Indians came after pitching exclusively from the stretch in the
bullpen, which is something he has carried over to being a starter. Pitchers are forced to
simply and streamline their arsenals in order to develop their best pitches and enhance
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their fastball command. In 77.2 innings, Mike Minor had a 2.55 ERA with a 2.62 FIP and
a 3.59 xFIP. He struck out 28.7 percent of opposing batters and developed tremendous
feel for his slider. Previously a pitch that he threw about 14 percent of the time, Minor’s
35.3 percent slider usage was a huge boost to him. That pitch was 11.7 runs above
average per Baseball Info Solutions and 12.6 runs above average per PITCHf/x. Minor’s
fastball command also got back to his pre-injury levels.
Doug Fister is a pretty reliable arm. Moving Matt Bush into a starting capacity is rather
interesting after some of his successes as a reliever, but the Rangers are starved for
starting depth. That’s why Big Sexy Bartolo Colon is in camp.
The bullpen has some upside. Tim Lincecum is a big gamble, but his workout at
Driveline Baseball just outside Seattle drew a big crowd and he had a lot of suitors.
Keone Kela missed the second half with injury and he is a power arm with potential.
Alex Claudio fared well in the closer’s role last season. Jake Diekman, who missed the
first half tending to a personal health matter, had a strong 2016 with a 3.40 ERA, a 3.54
FIP, and a 3.91 xFIP. If everybody stays healthy, this has potential to be an average
bullpen.
Why bet the under?
There are a ton of reasons here. Let’s start with the starting rotation. Maybe Cole Hamels
can reverse course, but I don’t see a whole lot in the profile that inspires me. His
precipitous strikeout drop is cause for serious concern. This was not a byproduct of
coincidence. Hamels’s swinging strike rate fell to 9.7 percent, which marked the first
season in which he fell short of double digits. His O-Swing% (chase rate), fell to a career-
worst 29.2 percent. He actually threw more pitches in the strike zone than the previous
year, but his arsenal just didn’t have much bite. By the end of the season, Hamels’s
changeup wound up being a plus pitch, but we’re looking at two straight years of decline
with it. Over the last two years, Hamels’s changeup has been 8.9 runs above average.
That is lower than each individual season from 2011-15. He allowed the highest hard
contact rate of his career and had a 4.90 SIERA, which is a pretty good predictor of
future performance. It was his first season with a SIERA over 4.00 in his career.
Maybe it’s unfair to assume that Hamels will be bad because this season is the outlier. On
the other hand, he overachieved with a 4.20 ERA against a 4.62 FIP and a 4.83 xFIP.
He’s thrown well over 2,300 innings in his career and we do tend to see pitchers start to
fall off after 2,000 frames. Hamels was hurt last season, so that played a role. Even if he
does return to being an above average pitcher, he is the de facto ace of a staff that has
very little in the way of upside.
I’m not really sure what the Rangers are looking for out of Matt Moore. As mentioned,
Moore was serviceable in 2016 with a 4.08 ERA, a 4.17 FIP, and a 4.56 xFIP, but he had
a random strikeout boost going from the AL to the NL with his trade to San Francisco.
Even in a wonderful pitcher’s park last season, Moore posted a 5.52 ERA with a 4.75 FIP
and a 5.10 xFIP across 174.1 innings of work. He doesn’t miss enough bats to offset the
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above average walk rates. He’s allowed quite a bit of hard contact in his career, with a
2015 BABIP of .332 and a 2017 BABIP of .320. He’s also trended in a fly ball direction,
which is a problem in today’s offensive landscape and it isn’t a particularly good thing
going down to Texas. Steamer and Depth Charts both have him north of a 5.00 ERA and
ZiPS is the most optimistic at 4.92. He’s just not a good bet to make in Texas.
I’m also not signing off on the Mike Minor bet. If the Rangers were going to use him as a
reliever, I would upgrade their bullpen quite a bit. Because the intention is to start him,
I’m selling Mike Minor. Minor missed all of 2015 and 2016 rehabbing various injuries.
Coming back as a reliever made sense and he was able to use that 35 percent slider usage
to his advantage. That was a significant weapon for him with 88 strikeouts in 77.2
innings of work. Only six starters sustained a 35 percent or higher slider usage last
season. They were Chris Archer, Patrick Corbin, Clayton Kershaw, Ervin Santana, Jason
Hammel, and Luis Severino. I can’t see Minor being part of that group. Minor’s fastball
velocity also jumped from 90.3 in 2014 to 94.4 in 2017. Maybe that’s all about arm
health and strength, but most of that is likely a byproduct of being a reliever.
Across the board, the arsenal might be deep enough to be a league average starter, but I
have a lot of durability concerns with Minor. He probably won’t have the safety net of an
11.8 percent swinging strike rate. His chase rate was a career-best because of that heavy
slider usage. I just don’t think last year’s usage translates very well to a starting capacity.
Matt Bush has been an effective reliever for two years. I’m not sure how that translates to
starting, but maybe we’ll find out. Out of necessity, the Rangers seem interested in
putting him in that role. My guess would be that it doesn’t translate overly well,
especially as hitters had much higher contact quality off of him last season. Bartolo
Colon has nothing left to give. The rest of the depth options are uninspiring. This isn’t the
worst rotation in the American League, but it is clearly in the bottom five for me in a
division with a lot of right-handed power.
I’m not sure about the sustainability of a reliever like Alex Claudio, who has a career K%
of 17.7 percent. I know I’m all about contact management, but relievers still need to be
able to throw it past dudes. Honestly, the bullpen is the least of my worries with this
team, but it is still just a pretty average group. Keone Kela needs to stay healthy. Jake
Diekman needs to stay healthy. Tim Lincecum is a big roll of the dice. There isn’t much
in the way of depth with this group.
I really don’t love the upside of this offense. In fact, I’m not sure that there is a whole lot.
Adrian Beltre will be fine. He always is. He’s one of the game’s most consistent players
and a personal favorite of mine, which has no bearing on the win total, but I will go to bat
for that dude for the HOF if need be.
Robinson Chirinos was second in wRC+ for the Rangers last season. You don’t see 33-
year-olds having breakout offensive years all that often. His contact quality took a big
spike, but he only lasted 309 plate appearances. His BABIP was up 27 points from the
previous season. Chirinos was a massive outlier in xwOBA – wOBA, as he exceeded the
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Statcast Expected wOBA by 42 points. He is a big time regression candidate going into
next season.
You know who else is a massive regression candidate? Elvis Andrus. Statcast’s xwOBA
mark for Andrus from last season was .297. His actual wOBA, per Statcast, who does
calculate the factors differently than Fangraphs, was .349. So he was an overachiever of
52 points. All of the sudden, Andrus has gone from .333 to .357 to .439 to .471 in the
SLG department and it’s not like he’s hitting more fly balls. In fact, his FB% in last
year’s 20-homer season was 31.5 percent, which was up from the early stages of his
career, but nothing significant. He also went from a 6.3 percent HR/FB% to an 11.6
percent HR/FB%. I’m really not buying the power breakout. Furthermore, he sacrificed
getting on base for power with the lowest BB% of his career at 5.5 percent. Unless the
power sticks, we’re talking about another sub-100 wRC+ season for Andrus and that is
honestly what I’m looking at. As a side note, Delino DeShields Jr. was another huge
xwOBA – wOBA outlier with a .252 xwOBA and a .311 wOBA per Statcast.
Shin-Soo Choo isn’t a very good player anymore. He managed to stay healthy last year
and post a decent stat line, but he is an awful outfielder. He is projected to be a DH most
of the time this season, but his offensive profile continues to be pretty pedestrian. At least
he was healthy last season, but this is a pretty marginal profile to be sitting at the top of
the order with a 107 wRC+. Nomar Mazara is another question mark in the outfield with
margin defense and a below average wRC+ in his two MLB seasons. Projection systems
are fairly bullish on him, though, so we’ll see if he can live up to them.
Willie Calhoun has a good offensive profile, but he doesn’t really have a position, which
is why the Dodgers made him available in the Yu Darvish deal. Delino DeShields Jr.
doesn’t have a ton of contact authority. Joey Gallo has a high floor, but he’s going to
strike out a lot in a lot of key situations.
Pick: Under 77 (-110, BetOnline)
Here we have it, ladies and gentlemen. To date, this is my favorite season win total bet
and this is one that will make my card for the 2018 season. I see very few redeeming
qualities with this team. The offense is due for significant regression and Cole Hamels
might be the only above average starter in the rotation. It’s possible that Mike Minor
found something in relief, but I have serious doubts he can stay together and contribute a
whole lot to this rotation.
The bullpen isn’t nearly good enough to carry a high workload and I’m not sure it’s good
enough to carry a low workload. The Rangers are clearly behind the Astros and the
Angels in this division and I can make strong cases for the Mariners and Athletics to both
be better teams.
This is my strongest bet thus far to take the Rangers under the total and, to be totally
honest, 77 is about the ceiling for where I would put them, so I’m thinking we’ll have a
little room to spare.
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Atlanta Braves
The Washington Nationals are going to win the National League East, barring a huge
upset, but the division is really interesting. Well, 80 percent interesting, anyway. Sorry
Miami Marlins fans. As we start our journey through the Senior Circuit, we start with the
Atlanta Braves, who are loaded with young talent and have one of the best hitters in all of
baseball.
It wasn’t quite standing room only on the Braves bandwagon last season, but people were
starting to take notice. Atlanta fell short of expectations, much to the chagrin of those that
saw value in last season’s mid-70s win total. The Braves went just 72-90. For a team that
was just two games under .500 at the All-Star Break, it was an incredibly disappointing
outcome. After all, Atlanta gained some favor in the marketplace by going 37-35 in the
second half of the 2017 season.
The alternate standings metrics don’t provide a whole lot of solace. Per Pythagorean
Win-Loss, the Braves were a 73-89 team and BaseRuns nearly hit their numbers dead on
with a -88 run differential projection. The Braves finished -89 for the season. Pitching
was the team’s downfall, but help is on the way. Five arms in the system rank in both the
Baseball Prospectus Top 101 Prospects or the Baseball America Top 100 Prospects. Joey
Wentz is also in B-Pro’s Top 101 and Max Fried is in BA’s Top 100. In total, seven of
Atlanta’s youngsters are in the top 66 per Baseball Prospectus and eight rank in the top
72 at Baseball America, including the top prospect at both sites in Ronald Acuna. Four of
those pitchers are expected to be part of the rotation at Triple-A Gwinnett and Double-A
Rome. The future looks bright, but what about the present?
It was a very busy offseason for the Braves. They made some moves, shed some salary,
lost a GM, lost some prospect depth, and watched as their division rivals either got
markedly better or markedly worse. As we look ahead to 2018, there are two key
questions to the season. How fast will the youngsters arrive? How effective will the
veterans be?
The Braves look like something of a high-variance team and those types of teams often
create good season win total opportunities one way or another. Which way will we look
to go with the Braves?
Season Win Total Odds:
5Dimes: 75 (-110/-110)
BetOnline: 75 (-110/-110)
Bovada: 74.5 (-150/120)
Additions: Charlie Culberson, Preston Tucker, Brandon McCarthy, Scott Kazmir,
Peter Moylan, Anyelo Gomez, Chase Whitley, Grant Dayton, Chris Stewart, Rob
Brantly, Christian Colon, Tyler Smith, Jaff Decker, Josh Ravin, Shane Carle
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Losses: Josh Collmenter, Ian Krol, Micah Johnson, RA Dickey, Jason Motte, Kris
Medlen, Jim Johnson, Matt Adams, Jace Peterson, Matt Kemp, Adonis Garcia
The biggest story of the offseason for the Braves came back in November when John
Coppolella was relieved of his duties as GM and placed on Major League Baseball’s
banned list. Coppolella illegally circumvented MLB’s international signing rules. As a
result, the Braves were stripped of 13 prospects, including Kevin Maitan. Additional
sanctions will limit Atlanta’s involvement in the international free agent market until
2021. The Braves system took a hit, but it remains one of the strongest in baseball.
At the MLB level, the Braves acquired Brandon McCarthy, Scott Kazmir, and Adrian
Gonzalez in a deal that sent Matt Kemp back to the Dodgers. Gonzalez was waived and
wound up with the Mets. They also reunited with Peter Moylan and brought in Preston
Tucker from the Astros. The Braves basically needed some veteran arms to refrain from
rushing the youngsters in Triple-A and also provide some stability at the back end of the
rotation, if healthy.
None of the losses were all that significant. All in all, the Braves made the most of the
offseason, which really started out ugly with the Coppolella fallout.
Why bet the over?
There are a lot of things to like about the Braves this season. Freddie Freeman is the
obvious starting point. Freeman’s .307/.403/.586 slash with a .407 wOBA and a 152
wRC+ really stood out last season. He was a 4.5-win player despite managing just 514
plate appearances. The 28-year-old ranks among the best hitters in baseball and there is
no reason to think that he should stop. In fact, Freeman lowered his K% from 24.7
percent in 2016 to 18.5 percent in 2017. As long as he can stay healthy, there is a
reasonable chance that we see Freeman’s best offensive season of his career with more
balls in play and a sustainable walk rate. He’s hit more fly balls the last two years, so that
should provide some sustainability to the power numbers. He has a great chance to
surpass the 34 dingers he hit in 2016. Freeman is an easy four-win player and I’d expect
more with a healthy season.
Ender Inciarte is a really strong player when it comes to projecting out a season. In his
four MLB seasons, Inciarte has been between 2.7 fWAR and 3.6 fWAR. Last year, he
managed to post a 100 wRC+ with a .304/.350/.409 slash line. He doesn’t hit for much
power, but he makes a ton of contact and has great speed to make something out of it. He
did fall back a little bit with his defensive metric last season, as he was a full-time center
fielder once again, but he’s a very high-floor player with tremendous contact skills and
above average defense in CF.
Just like we all expected, Kurt Suzuki and Tyler Flowers combined to be one of the most
valuable tandems at the catching position. Suzuki hit 19 home runs in just 309 plate
appearances and Flowers had a career offensive year of his own with a .281/.378/.445
slash line. Suzuki’s breakout came out of nowhere, but his FB% jumped from 38.5
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percent to 46.6 percent. The 17.1 percent HR/FB% probably regresses, but he has some
margin for regression to still be a solid contributor. Flowers cut down on the strikeouts
and put more balls in play. He was able to sustain a high BABIP, which allowed him to
post a career-best .378 OBP. I’m not sure how much I want to buy into both guys having
similar seasons, but most catchers are negatives at the plate. These two should be better
than league average collectively. Both are marginal defensive catchers, but they should
hit enough to overcome it.
The youth movement could define the season for the Braves. Ozzie Albies made his
MLB debut last season and posted a 112 wRC+ in 244 plate appearances and played
good defense. Albies had a .286/.354/.456 slash line and did not look overmatched at all
against MLB pitching with a very strong 14.8 percent K%. The 21-year-old, who just
turned 21 in January, possess plus speed and can play either middle infield position, so if
Dansby Swanson continues to falter, Albies can slot over to SS if need be. Scouts aren’t
ready to give up on the 24-year-old Swanson, who had a .334 wOBA and a 107 wRC+ in
145 PA in 2016. He had a really atrocious .276 wOBA with a 66 wRC+ last season, but
walked a lot and played average defense per UZR. DRS wasn’t a fan, but Swanson is an
okay defender, so some offensive gains would be a big help.
Ronald Acuna is the guy that everybody is watching. Acuna has high-upside power with
good speed and he’s also a solid outfielder as well. The 20-year-old, who can’t legally
drink in the US until December, has terrorized pitching at every level so far. Last year, he
batted .326/.374/.520 at Double-A in 243 plate appearances before getting pushed to
Triple-A, where he batted .344/.393/.548 in 243 plate appearances. He hit 21 homers
across three levels and stole 44 bases. Acuna is not on the 40-man roster yet, so he is
technically a non-roster invite. Be aware of that if he makes the ballclub because some
fantasy leagues force you to wait until a player is placed on the 40-man. How good is
Acuna? Well, ZiPS has him projected for a .269/.321/.452 slash with a .329 wOBA, 21
HR and 33 SB, and above average defense as a 20-year-old rookie.
Johan Camargo hit well at two levels last season and played good defense at multiple
positions in his 82 games at the MLB level. Nick Markakis has the power of a dead
battery, but he still walks and makes a lot of contact, so there are some practical
advantages to his skill set. There really is a lot to like about this offense. Reserve OF
Lane Adams had a 110 wRC+ in 122 PA. Preston Tucker had a .343 wOBA in 569 PA
with Triple-A Fresno in the Astros organization before he was acquired by the Braves to
provide some bench depth.
The starting rotation takes a little bit of imagination to like. Julio Teheran is only a season
removed from a 3.21 ERA with a 3.69 FIP and a 4.13 xFIP. His strikeout rate fell and his
walk rate climbed last season, so it was hard for Teheran to build off of his 2016 season.
He did have a K% bounce back in the second half that could be a positive building block
moving forward. At worst, Teheran should be a league average dude for 180 innings, but
he obviously has the upside for more, with 3.2 fWAR in both 2014 and 2016.
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Mike Foltynewicz is a league average dude as well. Sean Newcomb has a bit of upside if
he can harness his obscene walk rate. Newcomb has always missed a lot of bats, but he
never really knows where the ball is going. Last season, an elevated home run rate really
hurt him. He posted a 10.9 percent HR/FB% after years of great HR/FB% marks in the
minor leagues. Some positive regression in that area could really help.
Newcomers Brandon McCarthy and Scott Kazmir are interesting. McCarthy amassed 2.4
fWAR in just 92.2 innings last season with a 3.98 ERA, a 3.28 FIP, and a 4.34 xFIP.
McCarthy hasn’t been healthy since 2014, so who knows what we can expect, but he was
effective last season when he was out there. Kazmir missed all of 2017 at the MLB level
and had just 12 innings of work at High-A. From 2013-16, he was pretty effective, so
he’s a decent gamble. Across 667.2 innings in that span, Kazmir had a 3.75 ERA with a
3.79 FIP and a 3.81 xFIP. He had a solid K/BB ratio as well.
The kids may dictate the year on the pitching side. Luiz Gohara is basically MLB-ready.
So is Max Fried. So is Aaron Blair. So is Lucas Sims. So is Matt Wisler. All five guys
already have MLB experience. Gohara looked pretty good in five starts last year with
over a strikeout per inning and a 2.75 FIP. A small sample size alert, obviously, so take it
with a grain of salt, but Gohara has pitched well at just about every stop on his path to the
bigs. Fried, Sims, and the others may need a little more seasoning and polish.
The second wave of arms behind them has a ton of upside as well. Mike Soroka is the
third-best prospect in the org per BP and BA. Kolby Allard is second per BP and seventh
per BA. Touki Toussaint isn’t even ranked anymore. Kyle Wright is in camp, but he is
likely coming in 2019.
There are two important points to make here. The first is that a Braves team making an
unlikely playoff push could use some of these organizational riches to fill other holes.
The other is that this is a team that can withstand some injuries because of its depth.
These guys all have raw talent. In terms of polish, they are all over the map, but the
Braves will be replacing any injured starter with somebody that has some measure of
upside. That is a big deal.
Some of these starters will invariably be moved to the bullpen down the line. For right
now, this bullpen is quietly solid. Arodys Vizcaino had a 2.83 ERA with a 3.72 FIP. His
xFIP was high at 4.21, but that’s because he slants to the fly ball side. Vizcaino struck out
over 27 percent of opposing batters. Peter Moylan is an excellent right-on-right matchup
guy. AJ Minter looked dominant in his 15 innings and has had good strikeout rates in the
minors. Chase Whitley has some MLB experience, so he’ll be a decent option in the
middle innings. This bullpen doesn’t jump off the page in any way, but it won’t be a
hindrance.
Ironically, the Braves’ best month last season was the one that they played without
Freddie Freeman. They were 16-12 in June and Freeman missed the entire month. What
that means going forward, I’m not quite sure, but Freeman has a better supporting cast
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and this starting rotation has a lot more upside than it had with guys like RA Dickey,
Bartolo Colon, and Jaime Garcia.
Why bet the under?
Ronald Acuna is a can’t-miss prospect. There is no denying that. Ozzie Albies looked
really good in a small sample. Beyond that, we’re really hoping for a lot of things to go
according to plan. One big key for the Braves this season is that guys like Brandon
McCarthy and Scott Kazmir stay healthy long enough for the starters in the minors to
develop or the Super Two deadline to pass to get that extra year of control. There are a lot
of exciting prospects here, but Luiz Gohara is the only one that truly appears to be MLB-
ready in that he can be an average or above pitcher.
Julio Teheran is no sure bet to bounce back. There was a distinct loss of command for
Teheran, whose HR/FB% went back up to 13.7 percent, which it was in 2015, and the
walk rate also regressed to 2015. It looks more and more like 2016 was the outlier for the
current version of Teheran. His walk rate ballooned even though he threw a higher
percentage of first-pitch strikes than he had since 2013. His swinging strike rate went
down despite being ahead in the count more often. All of his non-fastball offerings
graded out below average. There may be an underlying injury here with the loss of both
command and control. Teheran also threw his slider less often and was more fastball-
heavy, which could have been another sign of discomfort. I’m not buying much Teheran
stock.
Mike Foltynewicz has never really impressed me. The numbers were a little bit better last
season, but he’s an average starter at best, even with the baseline for average much lower
than it used to be. His SIERA was actually 4.57, which is a pretty good indicator of future
performance and that would be just below average as an ERA. I also don’t love pitchers
that are so fastball-reliant in today’s run environment. Folty has used a slider more and
threw the curveball a bit more last season, but I just don’t love the long-term viability of
the arsenal in a starting role. I think he’ll be one of those future bullpen arms out of this
starter group. Both variations of fastballs graded out below average last season as well.
There is always the chance that Acuna flops in this first look and has to go back to the
minors and figure things out. Not that Acuna and Dansby Swanson are particularly
interchangeable, but Swanson posted a .276 wOBA and a 66 wRC+ in his first full season
at the MLB level as a college hitter that got fast-tracked to the big leagues. Acuna
shouldn’t do that by any means, but still. He may not be a bat out of hell right out of the
gates.
As you start to go through the lineup, there are other areas of concern. Kurt Suzuki’s
previous career-high in wOBA was .324 back in 2014. His top wRC+ was that season as
well at 106. His SLG last season was only 154 points above his career average. His
wOBA was 67 points above his career average. He had hit 16 HR over the previous three
seasons combined before hitting 19 last season. Color me skeptical of the offensive
breakout, in which his HR/FB% ballooned to 17.1 percent, which is more than 2.5 times
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his career rate. His partner in crime, Tyler Flowers, also had a career year at the dish.
This is a trend he built off of from 2016, but his 22.2 percent K% dropped as a result of
an outlier season in terms of making contact on pitches outside of the zone. He made
contact with 65.9 percent of pitches outside of the zone. His career average is 49.8
percent. So, he stayed alive more frequently. He still swung through more pitches in the
zone. I’m not going to buy into the K% decrease. The power might be fine, but his FB%
dropped as well. I’d expect both Suzuki and Flowers to regress offensively.
Even though the Braves posted their best month without Freddie Freeman, he’d still be a
substantial loss long-term, especially on an offense that probably won’t stand out in too
many other ways. Freeman has missed ample time two of the last three years. His injuries
haven’t really been chronic things, but it is just worth taking a look at in terms of the
season-long wager.
The bullpen is pretty pedestrian. Arodys Vizcaino had a decent season, but his 2.83 ERA
was accompanied by a 3.72 FIP and a 4.21 xFIP. He got pretty fortunate on balls in play
with a .248 BABIP against, so an ERA regression towards his advanced metrics is hardly
out of the question. Beyond him, there just aren’t a lot of high-upside guys. The other
Jose Ramirez had a 3.19 ERA with a 4.88 FIP and a 5.00 xFIP, so I’m not sure I’d bet on
him. AJ Minter only had 16 appearances. Daniel Winkler only had 16 appearances. There
are a wide range of outcomes with this bullpen. Vizcaino should be a decent closer his
high velocity, but the setup men and the middle relievers could go in any direction and I
wouldn’t be all that surprised. With the current emphasis on relief pitching league-wide,
it is tough for me to feel overly confident in this group.
A bet on the Braves could be viewed as a bet against the Mets or against the Phillies. The
Marlins are going to be a dumpster fire. The Nationals are going to the playoffs as the NL
East champion in all likelihood. The Mets are pretty clearly the second best in this
division, but their upside is in question. The Phillies have made some moves this winter
and continue to look at ways to upgrade the ballclub. With everybody set to beat up on
Miami, how Atlanta fares in the 57 games against the Nats, Mets, and Phils could be a
deciding factor in this win total because the bottom feeders of the NL like the Reds,
Padres, and Giants have made some improvements.
Pick: Over 75 (-110, 5Dimes or BetOnline)
I’m going to buy the Braves this season. I didn’t fall for it last year, as Atlanta stayed
under the win total. A lot of times, we see teams exceed expectations one year after
falling short of them. This is a team that has a few key building blocks and a lot of young,
hungry talent in the minor leagues. The hard thing about taking an Atlanta over is that I
think Philadelphia will be in the same spot and the New York Metropolitans will be a lot
better. Somebody in this division has to lose aside from Miami.
It is hard to argue with the amount of Major League talent that is ready or soon-to-be
ready in the minors. The Braves have a lot to be excited about and I think this is a team
that could flirt with a .500 record. They’ve done it for a half in each of the last two
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seasons, so it’s just a matter of developing a bit of consistency. I’d say my confidence
level is around a 6.5/10 here because this is an offense highly-dependent on Freddie
Freeman and 20-year-old Ronald Acuna. So, there will be stronger opinions in the
National League as we move forward, but I like the veteran additions to the starting staff
and if the Braves can get first halves out of Brandon McCarthy and Scott Kazmir before
injuries pop up, the organizational depth can fill the void.
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Miami Marlins
Major League Baseball should be ashamed. Former Miami Marlins owner Jeffrey Loria
didn’t exactly develop a myriad of fans and well-wishers during his time as the team’s
financier, but what has happened in the days, weeks, and months since the group
featuring Derek “YEAH, JEETS!” Jeter took over, the fire sale has been swift, ugly, and
overwhelming. Dee Gordon is gone. Giancarlo Stanton is gone. Marcell Ozuna is gone.
Christian Yelich is gone. JT Realmuto will soon be gone.
Maybe the Marlins needed to rebuild. The tragic death of Jose Fernandez sent aftershocks
through Major League Baseball, but the earthquake was in Miami, where the Marlins not
only lost an endearing personality with a passion for the game, but also one of the game’s
top starting pitchers. Miami has been unable to develop a lot of pitching talent and
entered the offseason well behind the Washington Nationals in the NL East hierarchy.
The trade returns progressively got better, after Dee Gordon and Giancarlo Stanton didn’t
net a whole lot in terms of assets. The Marcell Ozuna and Christian Yelich deals had
more upside.
The fact is that MLB and its owners willfully approved a group that did not have the
money to run the franchise in its then current state. Bruce Sherman is the controlling
owner. Jeter only has a four-percent stake in the team, but he will be the face as a future
Hall of Famer. The Marlins were reportedly purchased with $400 million in debt, which
is why Stanton’s huge contract was moved in the blink of an eye and for whatever
fictitious denomination would be less than pennies on the dollar. Now the team, the ex-
owner, and the current owners are being sued by Miami-Dade County.
As the first transactions happened, players geared up for what would be a raging inferno
of fire sales. The team probably isn’t done either, with a coveted reliever like Kyle
Barraclough and a top catcher in JT Realmuto still left to be moved. Starlin Castro also
wants out.
Last year’s numbers are irrelevant at this point with such a huge chunk of offense spread
among the league’s other clubs. Miami did go 77-85, with the same record per the run
differential based Pythagorean Win-Loss and a slightly better 79-83 record per BaseRuns.
But, as mentioned, what happened last year legitimately means nothing with the current
makeup of the team.
The Marlins will be bad. They will be the penultimate bottom feeder in a league that has
about a third of its members in various states of a rebuild. Just how bad will they be?
That’s what we’ll attempt to find out.
Season Win Total Odds:
5Dimes: 64.5 (115/-135)
BetOnline: 64.5 (-105/-115)
Bovada: 64.5 (125/-155)
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Additions: Starlin Castro, Lewis Brinson, Cameron Maybin, Garrett Cooper, Scott
Van Slyke, Brett Graves, Elieser Hernandez, Chad Wallach, Bryan Holaday, Eric
Campbell, Johnny Giavotella, Isan Diaz, Yadiel Rivera, Cristhian Adames,
Magneuris Sierra, JB Shuck, Sandy Alcantara, Caleb Smith, Jacob Turner, Tyler
Cloyd, Nick Niedert, Jumbo Diaz, Drew Rucinski, Alex Wimmers
Losses: Mike Aviles, AJ Ellis, Dustin McGowan, Ichiro Suzuki, Brandon Barnes,
Christian Colon, Jake Elmore, Dee Gordon, Giancarlo Stanton, Edinson Volquez,
Marcell Ozuna, Christian Yelich
Obviously the focus is on what the Marlins lost, with four big names with Major League
pedigrees finding themselves with a new zip code for the 2018 season and beyond. As far
as what the Marlins got, a lot of it won’t be on display for a few years because a good
chunk of the prospects acquired are lower-level guys. Miami did acquire Major League
talent in Starlin Castro and Lewis Brinson. Magneuris Sierra is pretty close and could
very well make the team out of camp. Isan Diaz is fairly close as well.
A lot of cheap non-roster invites and minor league deals were signed by fringy, part-time
players looking for a spot to play. The Marlins are an attractive destination for these
reserves because an avalanche of trades means an avalanche of opportunities for playing
time. The starting lineup is fairly in tact, but bench possibilities are there.
Why bet the over?
This offense still has a few pieces, at least for now. JT Realmuto is one of the better
offensive catchers in baseball. Martin Prado has been a steady contributor at the big
league level for quite a while. Starlin Castro will be playing as hard as he can to get out
of South Beach. Justin Bour can rake and Lewis Brinson has a lot of upside. The top half
of this lineup might not be too bad.
The 26-year-old Realmuto is known in traditional baseball circles for being a solid
offensive piece. He’s posted wRC+ marks of 109 and 105 over the last two seasons, with
almost identical .333 and .332 wOBA marks. What people probably don’t realize is that
Realmuto is a pretty good defensive catcher as well. The league average caught stealing
percentage was 27 percent last season. Realmuto was at 32 percent. Two years ago, he
was at 35.4 percent. It is a really great weapon to have a catcher that can hit and can also
make a difference defensively. Catchers league-wide posted a .245/.315/.406 slash line
with a .309 wOBA and an 89 wRC+. Realmuto was 16 percent better than that and a plus
defensively. That is highly valuable at a position where a lot of the league’s backstops
play below league average.
Justin Bour is a really useful hitter on the fat side of the platoon. The left-handed first
baseman has tormented righties over the last couple of seasons and yields a good amount
of value as a result. Bour was limited to 429 plate appearances last season due to injury,
but had career highs across the board in home runs, RBI, batting average, on-base
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percentage, slugging percentage, wOBA, and wRC+. His 133 wRC+ was quite solid and
so was his .374 wOBA. Bour hit 20 HR over his first 270 plate appearances, but as
injuries popped up, he lost his power production in the second half. He should be good
for some solid full-season numbers in the middle of this order.
Martin Prado is coming off of knee surgery, so we’ll see to see how effective he can be,
especially playing a challenging position like third base. From 2012 to 2016, Prado
averaged about 3.25 fWAR per season. Last year, he was limited to 37 games and 147
plate appearances because of injury. In 2016, he posted a .335 wOBA with a 110 wRC+
and was an above average defender at the hot corner. Prado has played all around the
diamond in his career, so he’ll be a really attractive trade piece if the Marlins are willing
to eat some of the $28.5 million due to him between this season and next.
If Starlin Castro has the right mindset, he can be a useful piece in this lineup. Castro
slashed .300/.338/.454 last season with a .338 wOBA and a 110 wRC+. He wasn’t great
defensively, but a 110 wRC+ at second base is a pretty good showing. Because Castro
doesn’t walk, many of the important components at Fangraphs, like wOBA and fWAR
don’t really love his profile. To be fair, he’s also had some really bad years. If the 110
wRC+ is more of what we can expect, he’ll at least be an average player.
Lewis Brinson looked pretty overmatched in his 55 plate appearances last season, but the
23-year-old has raked at every level of the minors. Before getting called up, Brinson
slashed .331/.400/.562 with a .410 wOBA for Triple-A Colorado Springs in the
Milwaukee organization. We certainly have to take PCL stats with a grain of salt,
especially those in the altitude, but Brinson has always been a prized prospect at the
plate. He’s also pretty good defensive outfielder. The KATOH projection system of Chris
Mitchell, which has been so successful that Mitchell is now working in the private
baseball sector, ranked Brinson 11th coming into the season.
Derek Dietrich is a league average type of player with a 99 wRC+ last season and the
ability to play multiple positions at something of an average level. JT Riddle showed
above average fielding ability with a below average bat last year. Projected third baseman
Brian Anderson cracked Fangraphs’s Top 100 prospects list and was ninth in the org
per Baseball Prospectus and third per Baseball America.
Depth is a major issue. Trades have vaulted youngsters into starting roles and a lot of
prospects aren’t quite there yet. Magneuris Sierra will probably be starting in the OF
sooner rather than later. But, this is still an offense that has a bit of upside.
It will need it because the pitching staff doesn’t have a whole lot. Dan Straily had the best
season of his career by fWAR and it was with a 4.26 ERA with a 4.58 FIP and 4.70 xFIP.
Straily improved his strikeout rate and his walk rate, but ran into the league’s home run
craze and had issues with the long ball. It was truly a tale of two halves for Straily, who
held the opposition to a .283 wOBA with a .208/.273/.390 slash in the first half with 97
strikeouts in 103.1 innings of work. In the second half, however, those numbers
ballooned to a .385 wOBA with a .299/.371/.558 slash. His K% did fall by three percent
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and his walk rate went up, but it was simply an issue of command. Straily’s probably
somewhere in between the two halves, which means an average starting pitcher as the de
facto ace of the staff.
The rest of the starting staff features hopes and prayers, to be totally honest. Jose Urena
had a 3.82 ERA in 169.2 innings last season. Dillon Peters is a deceptive little lefty with
good minor league numbers that could be more comfortable in his second trip around the
league. Between injuries and ineffectiveness, Peters skipped Triple-A and only had 13
career starts at Double-A before getting the call. He was thrown into the fire quickly, so
we’ll see if he can make adjustments. For the most part, he exhibited good control and a
good feel for avoiding the barrel in the minors.
The bullpen isn’t too shabby. Strikeout artist Kyle Barraclough should be the closer, but
it might also benefit the Marlins to have his services in the fireman role to be deployed as
needed. Brad Ziegler’s quirky motion and arm slot helped him to a 3.73 FIP last season,
even though his ERA didn’t follow suit at 4.79. Drew Steckenrider missed a lot of bats in
his 34.2 innings of work with a 35.8 percent K%.
Many of these players are highly motivated, whether they are motivated to get out of
town or prove that they belong at the big league level. You don’t want to underestimate
what that means over the course of a season.
Why bet the under?
To be completely honest, I’m not sure where to begin. This is not a great situation.
Veterans will spend the year wondering (hoping?) where they will be traded. Guys like
JT Realmuto and Justin Bour have escalating costs because of arbitration. Martin Prado
and Starlin Castro have salaries that ownership would love to move. Dan Straily is a trade
candidate if he is effective because he is also in that arbitration window. Brad Ziegler is a
lock to be traded at some point this season. Kyle Barraclough would net a big return as a
reliever set to hit arbitration next season. The Marlins are eating $13 million owed to
Edinson Volquez this season, but have cut next year’s guaranteed money to just under
$47 million. They only owe $23 million guaranteed for 2020 and have zero guaranteed
dollars on the books beginning in 2021.
The Marlins ranked seventh in batter wOBA last season, which does include the paltry
contributions at the dish from pitchers. That was the fourth-highest of any NL team,
trailing the three division winners. Of that 26 fWAR from position players, 6.9 (nice)
belonged to Giancarlo Stanton, 4.8 to Marcell Ozuna, 4.5 to Christian Yelich, and 3.3 to
Dee Gordon. That is 19.5 fWAR combined among those four players. Guys like Justin
Bour and Martin Prado did miss decent chunks of the season, so they may make up some
of the gap, but that is a significant amount of talent going out the door.
Starlin Castro is basically a league average type of player and his motivation level will
seriously be in question this season. He’s getting paid no matter what. There aren’t a lot
of teams that will be looking to acquire the almost $23 million that he is guaranteed the
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rest of the way. He’s only been worth 3.8 fWAR over the last three seasons and last year
marked just his second season in the last six with a wRC+ above 100. Defensively, he’s
below average at second base. He’ll be thrust into a prominent role here out of necessity
and that probably won’t go well long-term.
As long as JT Realmuto is with the Marlins, he’ll be a useful player, but projections
currently have him and his 6.2 percent BB% leading off. It will be hard for the Marlins to
construct a lot of innings. Three of the guys that actually walked at an above average rate
are gone. Brian Anderson had a good walk rate in his 95 plate appearances, but we’ll
have to see how his skills translate over a full season. Justin Bour is a solid hitter, but he
may be hitting a lot of solo home runs. Lewis Brinson will go through some more
growing pains, especially hitting in worse environments. Colorado Springs and hitter-
friendly Miller Park in Milwaukee are definitely not Marlins Park.
So much offensive production has been lost. Gordon and Yelich combined for 76 stolen
bases. Stanton and Ozuna accounted for 96 home runs. Both guys had .376 OBPs. This
offense is really not going to be very good.
And that’s a problem because the pitching staff could be extremely bad. Sandy Alcantara
should come up and inject some life into this pitching staff at some point, but Dan Straily
is the “ace”. Straily’s high fly ball rate is enough of a worry in today’s offensive
environment and having a .288 BABIP against plus a high home run rate with a 34.2
percent GB% speaks to a lack of command. The numbers certainly back that up given the
second half that he had.
Jose Urena is the #2 starter, technically, and he had that 3.82 ERA, but it came with a
5.20 FIP and a 5.29 xFIP. He doesn’t miss a whole lot of bats and isn’t a particularly
useful starting pitcher. Dillon Peters made six starts with a 5.17/4.69/4.52 pitcher slash.
Deception can only get you so far at this level. He virtually skipped Double-A and Triple-
A, so the profile isn’t very refined.
Odrisamer Despaigne was somewhat effective in his eight starts, but he isn’t a long-term
buy. He’s not even really a short-term buy with a 4.72/4.36/4.64 pitcher slash in 310.2
career MLB innings. Justin Nicolino has one of the worst swinging strike rates and
strikeout rates of the last few seasons. He has a 5.12 xFIP in 201.1 innings at the MLB
level with a 4.65 ERA and a 4.84 FIP.
This rotation is a debacle. The bullpen has three good relievers in Brad Ziegler, Kyle
Barraclough, and Drew Steckenrider. Barracough had a 3.66 FIP to go along with his
3.00 ERA, so some regression is possible. Ziegler has poor strikeout rates and is very
dependent on some of the luck metrics like BABIP and LOB%. Last season, they were
against him, with a .346 BABIP and a 64.4 percent LOB%. He’s not closer material, but
that will be his role, at least until he gets traded. Steckenrider looked good in his first 37
career appearances, but he isn’t exactly a proven commodity and does have some control
problems.
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The NL East got better around the Marlins. The Phillies signed Carlos Santana and have
been proactive in other ways, not to mention they’ll have full seasons of dudes like Rhys
Hoskins and Nick Williams. The Braves have the top prospect in baseball in Ronald
Acuna and some other exciting youngsters. The Mets should have better health with the
pitching staff and have made some good upgrades. The Nationals didn’t need to do
anything to remain atop the division.
There is no good division to play in when you’re in Miami’s situation. This may be the
best-case scenario among the three NL divisions, but it is still less than favorable for
them. Is Don Mattingly the right kind of manager for this situation? He’s been with
winning teams in New York and Los Angeles. Is a rebuilding Miami roster destined to
easily lose 90+ the right type of place? Can he be a patient teacher?
Pick: Under 64.5 (-115, BetOnline)
I’ve talked about this a lot, but I don’t play extremes. The Marlins are going to be
extremely bad. I know it. You know it. Everybody knows it. Furthermore, they, the
players and the coaches and the executives, know it. Nobody will go out and watch this
team. There is a significant lack of talent on offense and with the pitching staff. A lot of
the prospects acquired in the trades don’t have particularly high ceilings and the ones that
might are a long way away, so reinforcements won’t even be coming this season.
After the Trade Deadline, the Marlins will probably be rolling out a Triple-A team. There
is no reason to take an over with this squad. But, with a team that needs to lose 98 games
to go under the total, there isn’t a whole lot of equity in that either. This is an all-around
no play and we’ll have to see how ugly their day-to-day game lines are.
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New York Mets
The New York Mets are a prime example of why you should never take anything for
granted when it comes to prospects. Noah Syndergaard, Matt Harvey, Steven Matz, and
Zack Wheeler combined for 276 innings during the 2017 season. Harvey was the worst
pitcher on the team and one of the worst in baseball. Syndergaard made seven really good
starts before injuries got the best of him. Steven Matz was limited to 66.2 bad innings and
Zack Wheeler managed 86.1 poor innings.
This rotation was the next big thing in baseball. Add Jacob deGrom to the mix and it was
like baseball’s Fab Five. Unfortunately, the baseball gods don’t care about us and the
injury bugs are always swarming. deGrom made 31 starts. Robert Gsellman was second
on the team with 22. Swingmen Seth Lugo and Rafael Montero tied for third with 18. Not
surprisingly, the Mets lost 92 games and things went from bad to worse in the second half
with a flurry of trades and a 31-45 mark after the Midsummer Classic. The Mets were
blown out in several of those games as well.
Hope, however, springs eternal in the spring. New manager Mickey Callaway has already
brought some progressive ideas to the table with the health and welfare of his pitchers in
mind. The Mets still have the dark clouds of injury hanging over the season, with Steven
Matz and Michael Conforto both questionable for the start of the year. Optimism still
seems to be the overriding sentiment.
There are a lot of pieces and parts on this roster and the Mets certainly have the upside to
be a good team. The team was fairly active in free agency to plug some holes and has
gotten positive reports on the health of most of the players that missed time last season.
With two teams in various states of rebuild and a doormat in the Miami Marlins, the Mets
could be a Wild Card contender in the National League if everything goes according to
plan. That is easier said than done.
The hope was that a corner had been turned. The Mets finished below .500 every year
from 2009-14 before winning 90 games and going to the World Series in 2015. An 87-75
record in 2016 felt like a confirmation that this team was here to stay. Then an injury-
riddled 2017 hit like a splash of Arctic water in the face and the Mets lost 92 games. That
was the most losses since that 2009 season. And, they earned it, finishing with a 69-93
Pythagorean Win-Loss record and a 71-91 BaseRuns record.
The Mets should be ahead of the Atlanta Braves and Philadelphia Phillies, who continue
to groom young players for the big time. New York’s crop of veterans should be a little
lower-variance, but the Mets are still well behind the Washington Nationals. We can be
reasonably sure that we saw the floor for this team last season. The question, then, is
what is the ceiling and can it be reached?
Season Win Total Odds:
5Dimes: 81.5 (-125/105)
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BetOnline: 81.5 (-130/110)
Bovada: 81 (-155/125)
Additions: Todd Frazier, Jay Bruce, Adrian Gonzalez, Jason Vargas, Anthony
Swarzak, Jose Lobaton, Andrew Ely, Matt den Dekker, Zach Borenstein, Ty Kelly,
Matt Purke, Daniel Zamora
Losses: Daniel Bard, Josh Edgin, Tommy Milone, Nori Aoki, Josh Smoker
The strategy of signing a bunch of over-30 free agents isn’t exactly something that I’m
excited about, but the Mets opted to go that route. Todd Frazier is 32. Jay Bruce turns 31
during the season. Adrian Gonzalez will turn 36. Jason Vargas is 35. Anthony Swarzak is
32. This will be one of the oldest lineups in baseball, but one of the youngest rotations,
sans Vargas, will balance things out a bit.
Bruce and Frazier are still productive offensive players. Adrian Gonzalez is a placeholder
for prospect Dominic Smith, who should probably just be given a shot already, but the
Mets are taking it slow with him.
In all honesty, the best acquisitions by the Mets would be guys that are under team
control. More than 30 innings from Noah Syndergaard. More than 66 innings from
Steven Matz. That type of upside wasn’t available at a reasonable cost and upside like
Syndergaard’s barely exists in any context.
Why bet the over?
A lot of people believe that Mickey Callaway was an instrumental figure in the
development of Cleveland’s pitching staff. I like to believe that Cleveland’s pitching staff
simply has an absurd amount of talent and Callaway there to help game plan and
strategize. Either way, Callaway had his fingerprints all over that pitching staff and it was
the best we’ve ever seen per Fangraphs’s fWAR calculation. Callaway has spent the
spring talking up the talent level for the Mets.
The Mets have a lot of talent, too. Callaway is very progressive in that he lets his pitchers
have their own training regimens and has incorporated some of those methods into his
core system of beliefs. He believes in weighted balls and throwing programs that are
aimed at promoting pitcher health. That cannot be a bad fit for the Mets, given all of their
recent injury woes. Hopefully things will be different, from the training staff on up the
chain. The Mets have made some dangerous and irresponsible decisions with player
health over the last few seasons. In some respects, I would think that the Callaway hire
represents a culture change.
And, if this rotation is healthy, it has tremendous upside. Jacob deGrom, who did stay
healthy, threw his first 200-inning season. JDG set a career-high in K% at 28.9 percent
and kept his walk rate very manageable. Like most of the league, he fell victim to a home
run spike, but he’s still a very strong front of the rotation arm. In 680.2 career innings,
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deGrom has a 2.98 ERA with a 3.07 FIP and a 3.15 xFIP. I would expect a bit of a
HR/FB% regression this season and it is also worth pointing out that deGrom’s second-
half BB% fell from 8.3 percent to 5.7 percent, which also led to a big drop in his FIP
from 3.98 in the first half to 2.91 in the second half.
Baseball gods, I implore you in this open letter of prayer to keep Noah Syndergaard
healthy. When he is healthy, Thor is one of the game’s absolute best. Even if you had
unlimited create-a-player points, you can’t replicate Syndergaard’s real-life video game
arsenal. In 2016, Thor posted a 2.60 ERA with a 2.29 FIP and a 2.67 xFIP. He was well
on his way to another strong year last season with a stupid 30/0 K/BB ratio over his first
four starts. Syndergaard experienced some discomfort following his April 20 start. The
Mets wanted an MRI. Syndergaard said no. On April 30, he tore his lat muscle and
missed virtually the rest of the season.
Jerry Crasnick laid out a pretty damning case for the Mets, the training staff, and the
offseason regimen last May. Syndergaard has now teamed up with highly-regarded
trainer Eric Cressey and believes that he will stay healthy. Callaway is also going to let
Syndergaard do his own thing, so long as the two have open communication about it.
Trevor Bauer from Cleveland is a prime example of this. We’ll have to wait and see if
Syndergaard can stay healthy, but a healthy Syndergaard represents anywhere from 4-5
wins above replacement player more than what he was last season and a vastly improved
Mets rotation with his return.
A healthy Steven Matz would help. Matz was a 2.8-win pitcher in 2016 over 132.1
innings of work with a 3.40/3.39/3.30 pitcher slash. Last season was a debacle, as
everything regressed across the board. We’ve got 168 innings of good and 66.2 innings of
bad at the MLB level. The upside is there. The stuff is there. You know by now that
taking the over with the Mets is about gambling on the upside. Matz is part of that.
Robert Gsellman and Seth Lugo have been big for this team. Neither guy is all that
special, but league average starting pitching is fairly tough to come by and both guys
have that capability and don’t have to overachieve to do it. Lugo actually posted a 3.95
FIP in 101.1 innings last season and Gsellman finished strong by holding opposing
batters to a .295 wOBA over his last 43.2 innings of work. He was batting practice in the
first half, but pitched well in the second half.
Jason Vargas is nothing special, but he’s mostly durable and that’s what the Mets need. A
league change may not hurt the 35-year-old either, even though the gap between the NL
and the AL is much smaller than it used to be. Vargas is a league average type of arm.
Surrounded by high-upside, but high-risk talent, he should fit nicely.
The Mets bullpen has a few pieces and parts. Jeurys Familia doesn’t seem to be much off
the field, but he’s a solid reliever on it. A suspension for a domestic violence incident
limited him to 26 appearances with a 4.38/3.60/4.01 pitcher slash. Over 2015 and 2016,
he amassed 94 saves in 154 appearances with a 2.20 ERA, a 2.56 FIP, and a 2.79 xFIP.
Familia had a 170/50 K/BB ratio in those 155.2 innings of work.
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Behind Familia, the Mets will trot out AJ Ramos, who was a top-50 reliever for most of
the season in a setup capacity and they also signed Anthony Swarzak, who was solid for
the White Sox and Brewers. He’s also somebody that Callaway has some experience
with. Jerry Blevins is a reliable LOOGY and Paul Sewald has a little bit of upside. The
Mets have what could amount to an above average bullpen overall with several guys
capable of more than a strikeout per inning.
The Mets had a pretty decent offense last year. They had a .322 wOBA as a team and a
100 wRC+, which is a measure relative to league average, in which league average is
100, and it is adjusted for both league and park factors. So, the Mets were “average”.
Also keep in mind that the Astros heavily skewed league average and technically only 11
teams were average or better offensively.
Michael Conforto, who led the Mets in fWAR by a wide margin, despite being jerked
around by the organization for two years, is recovering from shoulder surgery, so he’ll
likely miss the start of the season. When Conforto returns, he’ll be looking to improve
upon a .279/.384/.555 slash with a .392 wOBA and a 146 wRC+. Conforto carried a 13
percent walk rate with 27 homers and terrific contact quality in 440 plate appearances.
The season cost him the chance at a five-win season. He was also fairly useful in the
field. He is a very solid player and hopefully he comes back fine from injury.
Jay Bruce hit 29 homers for the Mets and posted a .353 wOBA with a 120 wRC+ before
he was shipped to Cleveland. With a soft market for corner outfielders this winter, Bruce
moved into the Mets’ price range and they brought him back. Once Conforto is healthy,
Bruce will combine with Yoenis Cespedes to form a pretty good offensive outfield.
Cespedes slashed .292/.352/.540, but missed half of the season to injuries himself.
Cespedes only had 321 plate appearances and still managed 1.6 fWAR, so he’s
reasonably projected to be around a three-win player. This is a solid offensive outfield
overall, with a plus glove in Juan Lagares, who has reportedly worked to overhaul his
launch angle and hit for more power. I’m always intrigued by guys like that.
Around the horn, there is cause for optimism. Asdrubal Cabrera isn’t much of a fielder,
but he can still hit. Cabrera posted a .338 wOBA with a 111 wRC+ last season. He was
also more selective with a 9.3 percent walk rate and cut down on his strikeouts. Those are
two promising developments and his bat will play better at a weak offensive position like
second base.
Todd Frazier may not have a high batting average, so a lot of fans that subscribe to
archaic stats don’t like him, but he’s been an extremely solid player for the last six
seasons. Frazier posted his fifth straight wRC+ of 104 or higher. Last season, he walked
at a 14.4 percent clip, which probably won’t continue, but his power should bounce back
a bit as well. Since 2012, Frazer has averaged 3.4 fWAR per season. With Cabrera at
second full-time, Frazier at the hot corner, and prospect Amed Rosario at short, the Mets
may be in better shape than last season when they had Jose Reyes and Neil Walker.
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Reyes is back (meh), but Amed Rosario should get a lot of opportunities to prove
himself. Rosario had an awful debut with a .282 wOBA and a 74 wRC+, but he showed
some baserunning chops and was a solid fielder. The Mets’ top prospect slashed
.328/.367/.466 in Triple-A before getting the ball. His BB% and K% at the MLB level
were nothing like what we’ve seen in the minors, so don’t let that small sample size fool
you. This kid can play.
Wilmer Flores is a key component of an extremely interesting bench that also features
Brandon Nimmo. These two should probably be everyday players and may eventually get
to that point. Nimmo hit well in the minors and posted a .348 wOBA with a 117 wRC+
last season in 215 PA. Flores also had a solid wRC+ of 106. He just doesn’t really have a
solid position.
The Mets have some position player depth, a lot of upside on the pitching staff, and a
fresh outlook with Mickey Callaway. There is a lot to like.
Why bet the under?
Unfortunately, there is a lot to dislike as well. You simply cannot bury your head in the
sand about the fact that this pitching staff has serious health risks. We’ll state the obvious
and once again mention that the combination of Noah Syndergaard, Steven Matz, Zack
Wheeler, and Matt Harvey combined for just 276 innings and most of them were not very
good. Syndergaard is an ongoing injury risk with his high-effort delivery and slider
dependency. Matz, Wheeler, and Harvey have all had serious medical procedures done in
recent years.
Jacob deGrom was limited to 148 innings in 2016, as he only made 24 starts, though
those weren’t all injury-related. His wife had a very tough pregnancy and delivery with
the couple’s first child. He did, however, have ulnar nerve transposition surgery at the
end of that season, which is the same thing that Matz had over this past offseason. The
frequency of that procedure seems to be going up as pitchers look to throw as pain-free as
possible. All of these guys pitch with considerable injury risk, which would bring
mediocre arms like Robert Gsellman, Rafael Montero, and Seth Lugo back into the mix.
We saw how well that worked out last season.
The Mets were a bit unlucky in a starting capacity with a 5.14 ERA and a 4.60 FIP, but
the fact remains that this was not a very good starting rotation with all of the injuries.
With heightened risk on the arms of most of these projected starters, bettors will need to
factor that into the equation. A seismic shift in ideology thanks to Mickey Callaway
could be a thing, but it could also be something that takes some time to catch on,
especially with how the Mets have done business on the injury front over the last several
years.
The starting lineup is pretty concerning as well. The Mets had a lot of guys hit at an
above average level last season, but there are some serious aging curve concerns here.
Let’s say Amed Rosario does bust again at the outset of this season and the focus shifts to
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Jose Reyes. Who knows, Reyes could start right away anyway. The Mets would have six
of the eight hitters in the everyday lineup on the wrong side of 30.
And, let’s be honest, offensively, the Mets should be fine, but this is a horrible defensive
ballclub. That certainly didn’t help the pitchers last season, especially with so many of
the depth starters operating as pitch-to-contact guys. The Mets were dead last in
defensive runs saved at -75. UZR painted a little bit better of a picture, but this was an
embarrassing showing and it won’t get any better this season.
When Michael Conforto comes back, he’ll either play center field, where he was -4
defensive runs saved, or slide to left field. That would mean the Yoenis Cespedes
Experience in CF again, which was quite a failure two years ago when he was -7 DRS
and -20.6 UZR/150 in 495.1 innings. Juan Lagares is a tremendous defensive center
fielder, but his bat will dictate how much he plays with Conforto healthy, Cespedes
healthy, and Jay Bruce back in the mix. Bruce is also a bad outfielder.
Asdrubal Cabrera is a bad infielder. Jose Reyes is so bad now that the Mets are working
his 35-year-old legs out in the outfield. Adrian Gonzalez’s defensive skills are in decline
with some chronic back problems, which have also zapped his ability to be a decent
hitter. He posted a .242/.287/.355 slash line in 252 plate appearances last season. Wilmer
Flores has no position.
We have to look at things like defense when evaluating season win totals. I’m not sure
that the sportsbooks pay too much attention to them, but the PECOTA projection system
does. PECOTA is actually fairly kind to the Mets. This is interesting because one of the
teams that PECOTA projected a huge defensive gain for in 2017 was the Minnesota
Twins. The Twins lost 103 games in 2016. They were a Wild Card team in 2017. The
difference is that the Twins were projected to be above average (Byron Buxton) and the
Mets are still a fair amount below. There seems to be a fairly high correlation between
FRAA (fielding runs above average) and projected performance in PECOTA. The Mets
are expected to take a big step forward, but I’m not entirely buying it.
It is very hard to get a read on Jeurys Familia from last season because it was such a
disjointed year. He should be fine, but we did see a noticeable BB% spike from 2015 to
2016 and he was very fortunate to lower his HR/FB% from 14 percent to 2.6 percent. His
strikeout rate also dropped from 2015 to 2016. That’s not to say he won’t be an effective
reliever, but replicating either 2015 or 2016 may be a challenge.
AJ Ramos had a career year in 2016 with a high walk rate and a 4.28 xFIP. Like Familia,
he had an unsustainable 1.6 percent HR/FB% that spiked to 12.1 percent and he had a
3.99 ERA with a 4.10 FIP and a 4.30 xFIP. As a primary setup man, that’s not great. The
rest of the bullpen is full of run-of-the-mill dudes that don’t have big amounts of upside.
Pick: Over 81.5 (-125, 5Dimes)
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Somewhat cautiously, I’m quite optimistic about the Mets. I really do believe that the hire
of Mickey Callaway is going to help this ballclub in a lot of ways and Callaway raves
about pitching coach Dave Eiland. On that side, I think the Mets are going to be in great
shape. I don’t love buying a lineup full of guys on the wrong side of 30, but most of them
have track records of being productive hitters.
The Braves and Phillies have promising groups of hitters, but the Mets have the type of
arms that can shut those hitters down. The Marlins are terrible. The Nationals are the
class of this division, but only 19 of New York’s 162 games come against the Nationals.
Last year was rock bottom for this team, as Terry Collins, who was nearly fired two or
three times before he was actually fired, was on the chopping block. Changes were
coming and everybody knew it and then the fire sale happened and it was clear. The Mets
are in much better shape this season and everybody knows it.
This is one of my stronger picks within the NL East. I expect the Mets to be in the realm
of that second Wild Card spot and I think we see this pitching staff show some
tremendous strides that really get the buzz going for 2019.
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Philadelphia Phillies
Sports can be funny sometimes. In 2016, the Philadelphia Phillies, who were one of my
favorite season win total picks to go over, went 71-91 to easily surpass the line of 63.5
wins. Their Pythagorean Win-Loss record was 62-100, as they were outscored by 186
runs. Their BaseRuns record was 63-99.
Those two numbers often signal regression the following season. I laughed in the face of
that knowledge and looked for the Phillies to go over their season win total of 73 wins.
That bet was dead by the end of May, as the Phillies were 17 games under .500. By the
All-Star Break, they were 29 games under. The Phillies finished 30 games under .500 at
66-96, but their Pythagorean Win-Loss record was 72-90 with a -92 run differential. They
had a 70-92 BaseRuns record, despite the projection of a worse run differential.
So, in essence, the Phillies were better when they should have been worse and worse
when they should have been better over the course of the last two seasons. Does that have
any bearing on the 2018 season? We’ll have to wait and see, but the Phillies were the
second-worst team in baseball by win percentage in one-run games with a 21-36 record.
Their 36 losses in one-run games were the most in the league by nine over the Toronto
Blue Jays. Basically, this is a team that played a lot of close games that could have swung
in either direction. Toronto had the second-most one-run decisions with 53 and went 26-
27 in those games. Teams typically finish within four games of .500 on either side in
those one-run affairs. The Phillies were -15, which is how you get a big Pyth W-L split.
Realistically speaking, a lot of it was simply variance. The Phillies graded out as an
average bullpen, ranking 14th in ERA, 16th in FIP, and 14th in xFIP. The offense was
pretty terrible overall, so that played a role, but the Phillies shouldn’t have been -15 in
one-run games. Right there, we have some signs of improvement before we’ve even dug
into the personnel.
With teams in Philadelphia’s position, it isn’t really about wins and losses. Seasons are
defined by individual development. In 2016, the Phillies were 42-48 in the first half and
cratered in the second half. In 2017, the Phillies were 29-58 in the first half, but as more
youngsters and prospects got playing time in the second half, they posted a 37-38 record
with exactly as many runs scored as runs allowed. In a lot of respects, we can consider
2017 a more successful season than 2016, despite the fewer number of wins.
Will that second-half momentum carry over into 2018? Will the new acquisitions be good
fits? Will progress be made? All of these are good questions to ask and answer as we
look ahead to the 2018 season.
Season Win Total Odds:
5Dimes: 77.5 (-110/-110)
BetOnline: 76.5 (-135/115)
Bovada: 75.5 (-165/135)
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Additions: Carlos Santana, Tommy Hunter, Pat Neshek, Fernando Abad, Francisco
Rodriguez, Matt McBride, Ryan Flaherty, Will Middlebrooks, Adam Rosales,
Danny Ortiz, Collin Cowgill, Enyel De Los Santos, Drew Hutchison
Losses: Henderson Alvarez, Andres Blanco, Clay Buchholz, Hyun Soo Kim, Daniel
Nava, Cesar Ramos, Freddy Galvis, Kevin Siegrist
The Phillies had a pretty good offseason, in all honesty. They picked up Carlos Santana
to hit in the middle of this lineup and upgraded the team defensively at first base. His on-
base percentage skills should be a huge help for Rhys Hoskins and Nick Williams.
They also added some veteran relief arms in Tommy Hunter, Pat Neshek, Fernando
Abad, and Francisco Rodriguez. It’s fair to wonder how much is left in the tank for K-
Rod, but Neshek has been a tremendous reliever and Abad is a solid LOOGY. I like what
the Phillies have done here. They’ve also added some plug-and-play vets that can occupy
bench spots in case of injury so prospects can play everyday.
None of the losses are overly significant. Freddy Galvis is the biggest name, but he is a
bad hitter with a low on-base percentage.
Why bet the over?
I have to be honest. This is probably a spoiler alert, but I like this team a lot. The .500
team that we saw in the second half was mostly comprised of this roster, with Nick
Williams and Rhys Hoskins in the middle of everything. They’ve added Carlos Santana,
one of my personal favorites and I won’t lie that I got a little bit choked up when he
officially signed with someone that wasn’t the Indians.
Santana’s walk rate has gone down a tad in each of the last two seasons, but he is still an
extremely potent offensive player. He’s hit at least 20 homers in four of the last five
seasons with on-base percentages of .360 or higher in those four seasons. Now that he has
improved his defense as well, he should easily be a three-win player. He really deepens
this Phillies lineup because he regularly rates among the best in pitchers per plate
appearance, which appears to be a skill that Rhys Hoskins also has. Cesar Hernandez also
draws a lot of walks. All of the sudden, you can see the pieces of an offense that is tough
to pitch to coming together. Santana’s power did drop last season, but I would expect
some positive returns with a good hitting environment at Citizens Bank Park.
What Rhys Hoskins did in his 50 games will not be sustainable over a full season, but
you cannot deny this kid’s power. Hoskins hit 38 HR in 2016 for Double-A Reading in
589 plate appearances. Between Triple-A Lehigh Valley and the big leagues, Hoskins
slugged 47 home runs in 687 plate appearances. He walked 101 times against 121
strikeouts. For good measure, he also had 31 doubles. I’m not going to pretend that his
31.6 percent HR/FB% is sustainable, but the projection systems love him and are
projecting him to easily be a three-win player. He was a 2.2-win player in 212 PA last
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season while playing something around league average defense in left field. I’m not
expecting a .390 OBP, like he posted last season and in a couple of minor league stops,
but he’s going to be a potent bat.
Cesar Hernandez is one of the better players in baseball that you haven’t really heard of.
Over the last two seasons, Hernandez has amassed 7.6 fWAR with above average
offensive performances and quality defense at second base. Hernandez has posted .370
OBPs each of the last two seasons. He doesn’t have much power, so the offensive profile
takes a little bit of a hit there, but he did hit nine home runs last season to set a career
high and more than double his output over his first 1,330 plate appearances. He can steal
a few bases here and there and draws a good amount of walks, with a 10.6 percent BB%
each of the last two years.
We’ve already got the makings of a solid offense here with three players that should be
somewhere around 10 fWAR. The other guys are going to determine the ceiling for this
offense. Odubel Herrera regressed offensively last season because his BB% went from
9.6 percent to 5.5 percent and he stole 17 fewer bases. He did have fewer opportunities to
steal, which didn’t help. The biggest story for Herrera, though, is that he was pretty bad
in the first half. He struck out 84 times in 328 plate appearances against just 16 walks. He
batted .256/.292/.393 in what was a disastrous first half. But, he slashed .323/.378/.551 in
the second half, cut his strikeouts down, and increased his walk rate. The 26-year-old
made enough adjustments to have a league average offensive profile and he’s a plus
defender in center field, which carries a lot of weight. If the walk rate returns, Herrera has
the ceiling of a four-win player. At a minimum, he should be another three-win guy on a
team that keeps adding value on offense as we go along.
Nick Williams has hit at every level of the minors and slashed .288/.338/.473 in his 343
plate appearances at the MLB level. He’s not a great defender and has an iffy offensive
profile, but he’s made a lot of high-quality contact throughout his minor league career
and he should be an average player. Remember, as I’ve been preaching, “average” in
baseball terms is not a bad thing.
Maikel Franco still has power, but he doesn’t walk and his contact quality has been pretty
bad. His 76 wRC+ was hideous last season. His 91 wRC+ in 2016 was a little bit better.
There is still talent here and he was good in the minors. Maybe there’s hope. His
teammate on the left side of the infield, JP Crawford, is a really toolsy kid with a great
walk rate and good contact rates in the minors. He’s also a slick fielder. That’s the type of
guy that could have value, especially if last season’s power gains in the minors can
translate to the bigs.
Jorge Alfaro is a solid defensive catcher with some offensive upside. He was terrible in
Triple-A last season, but came up to the bigs and hit everything hard. He has a track
record in the minors of making a lot of hard contact to offset some swing-and-miss
issues. There is so hope here and also hope with guys like Tommy Joseph, who has good
power on the thin side of the platoon, Cameron Rupp, who can hit a little, and Aaron
Altherr.
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I was right about Aaron Nola last season, but that wasn’t exactly a thick limb to crawl out
on. Nola had a 3.54 ERA with a 3.27 FIP and a 3.38 xFIP. He missed a handful of starts,
but still posted a 4.3 fWAR. Nola’s 4.78 ERA in 2016 was accompanied by a 3.08 FIP
and the same xFIP. He was a positive regression candidate and it clearly came through.
His K% and BB% were about the same, but instead of a 60.6 percent LOB%, he had a
76.8 percent LOB%. That explains the ERA drop. His HR/FB% stayed pretty steady as
well. He’s an ace in the making as long as that right arm stays in tact.
I like the offense and I certainly like the idea of full seasons of Carlos Santana, Rhys
Hoskins, and Nick Williams. What I really like is the upside of this pitching staff. While I
was right about Aaron Nola, I was wrong about Jerad Eickhoff. Eickhoff had a 3.65 ERA
with a 4.19 FIP and a 4.15 xFIP in 2016. Last season, he regressed to a 4.71 ERA with a
4.30 FIP and a 4.86 xFIP. What happened? His home run rate went down in a year when
everybody else’s was going up and he still struggled. He pitched behind in the count too
much. The difference between a 1-0 count and an 0-1 count last season was staggering.
Counts that started 1-0 resulted in a .272/.387/.470 slash line. Counts that started 0-1
resulted in a .223/.267/.359 slash line. Eickhoff’s first-pitch strike percentage dropped 4.1
percent. Therefore, hitters chased less because they owned the counts. Eickhoff has
average fastball command, but lives on his slider and curveball. The slider was far less
effective last season.
I like some things about Eickhoff’s season, though. The Phillies, who have embraced
analytics a lot more under GM Matt Klentak, got Eickhoff to throw the curveball more. If
he can get ahead in the count more frequently, the swings and misses and the chases
come. Because hitters didn’t chase, they punished Eickhoff in the zone and had a .320
BABIP. A regression in his BB% would be huge. Projection systems aren’t high on him,
but I actually like his chances to bounce back. That could create some surplus value for
us and that’s why I do what I do to look from an individual level.
Speaking of which, let’s take a look at Nick Pivetta. On the surface, the 25-year-old was
awful. He had a 6.02 ERA. But, here’s where it gets fun. Pivetta had a 4.26 xFIP. He
struck out 140 in 133 innings of work, but fell victim to a high HR/FB% of 18.2 percent,
a BABIP of .332, and a LOB% of 67.1 percent. Pivetta’s line drive rate wasn’t anything
out of the ordinary and hitters didn’t pull the ball at an exorbitant rate. His 4.32 SIERA
speaks to more improvement. I think Pivetta can be a league average type of guy. Don’t
believe me? The much smarter Eno Sarris weighed in.
Vince Velasquez still has some promise, though I still believe a relief role is in his near
future. The Phillies have some depth guys like Jake Thompson and Zach Eflin that can
give them respectable innings. Let’s keep in mind, we’re taking about a win total in the
mid-70s. We don’t need the back end of the rotation to be that great.
I really like this bullpen. Hector Neris was quite good last season with a 3.01 ERA and a
3.71 FIP. He struck out 87 and walked just 26 in his 74.2 frames and has been a solid
reliever for two years now. Pat Neshek was dominant in his 43 appearances before
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getting traded to the Rockies. He’s back with the Phillies now after posting a 1.59 ERA
with a 1.86 FIP. Opponents had a .241 wOBA against Tommy Hunter in the second half
and a .274 wOBA in the first half, so he was strong for Tampa Bay. Adam Morgan is
another guy to watch. The southpaw starter turned reliever had a 4.12 ERA, but a 3.47
xFIP. He was a victim of circumstance with a 20 percent HR/FB%, but he struck out 63
in 54.2 innings as a reliever. Edubray Ramos was dominant in 57.2 innings with a 2.91
FIP. He’s another fine option. This is a strong group.
I like to think that what we saw in the second half from the Phillies is more of what we
can expect this season. Philadelphia was 12-23 in the first half in one-run games, so 9-13
the rest of the way, when the offense was better. This is an improved bullpen and an
improved offense. There are a lot of positives for this team.
Another positive is manager Gabe Kapler. Kapler was one of the first former players to
be very open about his appreciation of advanced metrics. He was able to work in the
Dodgers organization with a brilliant set of executives, including Andrew Friedman.
Kapler is a tremendous thinker when it comes to the game. I expect the Phillies to do a lot
of creative things this season, including mid-inning defensive changes.
Why bet the under?
This is a pretty significant improvement in the standings when the only free agent of
consequence to be added to the roster was Carlos Santana, who is a good player, but not
necessarily a game-changer. After all, Santana generally projects around three wins
above replacement player, which is solid, but a player with a 2.0 fWAR is considered to
be average. So, he’s above average, but his impact on a team’s projection is fairly
marginal.
That means that guys like Rhys Hoskins, Nick Williams, Jorge Alfaro, and JP Crawford
need to take the next steps. Hoskins will hit, but the chances of a .259/.396/.618 slash line
are very miniscule. He won’t be posting a full-season .417 wOBA nor will he post a 158
wRC+. He’ll likely be in the .360s and the 130 range, which is still extremely good, but
we need to have realistic expectations for these guys.
Williams has a very concerning profile. I really don’t like buying guys that have to rely
on batted ball luck and contact quality to produce offensively. Guys that walk or hit for
power have greater margin for error. In today’s game, every pitcher is throwing NC-17
breaking balls and 93+ mph. Williams has regularly posted high BABIPs with average
speed, so maybe he’s just a guy with a good feel for the barrel. He did hit 27 HR across
two levels last season, so that could be his saving grace, but he’s not carrying a full-
season .375 BABIP and he was just 10 percent above league average offensively.
Projection systems have a pretty big regression coming for him. Statcast data most
definitely agrees, as Williams posted an Expected wOBA of .309 and an actual wOBA of
.350 per their calculations of that metric. Those high-strikeout, low-walk profiles just
don’t translate well to the big leagues in most cases. Williams was fine last season, but he
faced a ton of fastballs.
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Per PITCHf/x, Williams faced the fourth-highest percentage of four-seam fastballs last
season at 44.9 percent. He was a plus hitter on the hard stuff, but struggled a ton with
sliders and was around average on other offerings. Pitchers should adjust and pitch
differently, especially with more players around Williams that can hit. Lineup protection
is a myth in terms of statistical production, but it is not in terms of how pitchers attack a
hitter. You can bet that Williams will see a greater variety of pitches this season and it
will be interesting to see how he adjusts with a swing-and-miss profile and not much
plate discipline. I’m skeptical of him for those that may overdraft him in fantasy leagues.
Odubel Herrera’s Dickensian “best of times, worst of times” 2017 season was pretty
interesting. Over the course of 162, he’s probably a league average hitter, as he showed,
but keep in mind just how bad he was in the first half. It took a lot of fill dirt to get out of
the hole that he dug himself early in the year. A similar start might have us buried under
this win total, much like last season, if it coincides with sophomore slumps for Rhys
Hoskins or Nick Williams.
Jorge Alfaro carried a .420 BABIP in his 114 plate appearances as a catcher with no
speed. His minor league numbers were all over the map, so he is a high-variance player
for this season. JP Crawford’s contact quality is non-existent, but he does walk to lessen
the blow. He won’t be walking 18 percent of the time, though, so what walk rate is
enough to compensate for the low-average profile? Does Maikel Franco ever figure it
out? He hit 22 HR last season, but was one of the worst everyday players in baseball, as
he was bad defensively and offensively.
Aaron Nola’s health is probably the biggest key to this whole equation. If he misses
significant time, this rotation goes from an average ceiling to the ceiling being too low for
Verne Troyer to stand upright into the room. Nola means everything to this starting staff.
The 24-year-old did throw 178.1 innings last season to quell some fears after only
throwing 111 the season before. However long Nola is out there, he will be a highly
valuable pitcher, but the more innings the better. There is nobody capable of replacing
what he can do if he goes out.
I was wrong on Jerad Eickhoff last season and I could very well be dead wrong again. He
didn’t post a 4.71 ERA with a 4.86 xFIP by accident, though I pointed out a very obvious
shortcoming that could have significant impact. He’s still a starter with an average
fastball and a heavy dependence on secondary pitches that require the right counts to
throw. He may end up being a punching bag again. The same can be said for Nick
Pivetta, whose contact management skills left something to be desired last season.
Like anything else in gambling, we’re trying to predict the future. We’re trying to find
edges. I find sabermetrics to be my edge. I think Nick Pivetta can positively regress his
6.02 ERA to something closer to his 4.26 xFIP. That may not happen. xFIP and SIERA
are two of the best predictive stats we have for pitcher performance, but that doesn’t
mean that things always work out. Furthermore, it’s not like a 4.26 xFIP is all that
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awesome anyway. It’s about a quarter of a run better than league average, but with this
rotation, that may not be nearly enough.
Vince Velasquez is another injury risk. Ben Lively just wasn’t very good. Jake
Thompson and Zach Eflin looked pretty overmatched at the MLB level. I know I’m big
on bullpens and I do really like Philadelphia’s, but this rotation has some really ugly
potential. Nola is the only guarantee to be above average, so long as his arm stays in tact.
Beyond that, Eickhoff is teetering on the brink of average and others need some pretty
big gains to get there.
While I think there is a lot of upside in a creative, outside-of-the-box hire of somebody
like Gabe Kapler, he doesn’t have a lot of managerial experience. Will he be able to mesh
the analytics with being a resource for players? Will he get too cute with some of his
decisions? Will he push the envelope too far? The Phillies are in a good position to take a
gamble like this, but they could very well roll snake eyes.
Pick: Under 77.5 (-110, 5Dimes)
I hate doing this. I love this team, but this is one of the rare instances in which I wish I
had entered the market sooner. The secret is out about the Phillies. Their season win total
opened 74.5 and has been bumped up over the last few weeks. I will not be betting this
one. My initial lean was to go over and I fully expected to go over as I was writing this.
Remember that I put in the odds and the picks after I finished all my research and writing.
I didn’t want to be biased. I was loving this team. And then I realized just how high this
number has gone.
With Aaron Nola as the only surefire bet in the starting rotation, and with his injury
history, I can’t do it. I like the bullpen. The offense is rather high-variance for my liking,
though I do think the Phillies will hit and be one of the league’s better teams in that
regard.
Part of the reasoning behind the line move is that some industry insiders expect the
Phillies to sign Jake Arrieta. If that comes to fruition, then I think grabbing a piece of
over 76.5 at BetOnline or paying the ridiculous juice for over 75.5 at Bovada makes some
sense. That would significantly help the projections for this rotation.
For now, with Arrieta (and Lance Lynn and Alex Cobb) still free agents as I post this on
March 1, I can’t do it. This would be a very big bump for Philadelphia and I can’t see
them making this big of a leap this soon. That being said, I’m not playing under 77.5
right now. I may play it as the season approaches, but the Phillies are a couple FA
pitchers away from being a team that could very well finish above .500.
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Washington Nationals
If-then statements are used in a lot of different areas. You can use them in math, Excel, or
virtually any kind of argument. If I had more money, then I’d have a shot with Carrie
Underwood. (I still wouldn’t.) If X is inversely proportional to Y, then I don’t know what
we’re talking about because I don’t remember those classes. You know what I’m talking
about.
When you think about the National League East, there are a lot of if-then statements that
can be pondered. If the Mets rotation stays healthy, then they could be a Wild Card
contender. If Rhys Hoskins is the actual second coming of Babe Ruth, then the Phillies
could be a Wild Card contender. If the Marlins spend more than $14 on players, then they
might not lose 100 games. These types of statements really start to add up with those four
other teams.
The team that has the fewest if-then statements in the NL East, by a large margin, is the
Washington Nationals. There aren’t a whole lot of ifs with this team. The Nationals won
97 games last season and won the NL East by 20 games, ironically, over the Marlins,
who traded away their four best players in the fire sale to end all fire sales. There doesn’t
really appear to be a challenger to the Nationals, so the only things left to figure out about
their regular season are whether or not they go over their win total and if they have home
field advantage in the NLDS.
The Nats were as good as advertised last season, with a 96-66 Pythagorean Win-Loss
record and a 96-66 record per BaseRuns. Using that context-neutral standings metric,
their season run differential would have been +143 instead of +147. This is a very solid
team with very few weaknesses. Just about everybody of consequence from last season is
back in the mix this season. The NL East still looks like a division in which the other four
teams will struggle to get to .500 or better. It should be pretty cut and dry.
However, the Nationals have a high season win total as a result. The margin for error is
quite small with a high season win total because it requires a remarkable level of
consistency over six months and 162 games. It requires a healthy team and things to go
according to plan.
Even if things don’t, the Nationals should win the East. How many games they win in the
process is what we’ll attempt to figure out.
Season Win Total Odds:
5Dimes: 94 (110/-130)
BetOnline: 92.5 (-130/110)
Bovada: 92.5 (-145/115)
Additions: Matt Adams, Joaquin Benoit, Miguel Montero, Balbino Fuenmayor,
Jason Martinson, Jacob Wilson, Matt Reynolds, Reid Brignac, Moises Sierra,
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Tommy Milone, Cesar Vargas, Logan Darnell, David Goforth, Chris Smith, Ismael
Guillon, Roman Mendez, Justin Miller, Jeff Ames, Kaleb Fleck
Losses: Matt Albers, Joe Blanton, Alejandro De Aza, Stephen Drew, Adam Lind,
Jose Lobaton, Oliver Perez, Jayson Werth, Emmanuel Burriss, Joey Butler, Neal
Cotts, Kevin Jepsen, Neil Ramirez, Brandon Snyder
The Nationals really just shuffled the deck in terms of depth over the winter. They didn’t
make any significant signings or transactions that would move the needle one way or
another. They re-signed guys like Howie Kendrick and Brandon Kintzler that they
acquired during the 2017 season.
All in all, it was a pretty quiet offseason. Depth is a good thing and the Nationals have a
lot of guys with MLB experience in their minor league system now that they can call up
at a moment’s notice. Matt Albers is probably the most notable loss after his out-of-
nowhere 2017 season, but the Nationals can replace his innings.
Why bet the over?
The second-best pitcher in the National League is on the Washington Nationals. Max
Scherzer is coming off of another spectacular season in which he grabbed his third Cy
Young Award. Mad Max was better last season than he was in his 2016 season. He threw
28 fewer innings and made three fewer starts, but increased his strikeout rate to 34.4
percent, which was a career-best. His walk rate went up a touch, but his home run rate
went down and that was impressive. Most of the league’s pitchers fell victim to juiced
balls and launch angles and saw their HR rates rise. Scherzer’s went down, as he allowed
his fewest number of home runs in a season since 2014. That was back when he was
pitching in cavernous Comerica Park, which suppresses home runs at one of the highest
rates in baseball.
There is no reason to believe that Scherzer will fall off. He will cross the 2,000-inning
threshold this season, which is thought to be a pretty big deal for pitchers, but Scherzer
maintained his velocity last season and threw a higher percentage of sliders, so his arm
must be feeling just fine. As the 200-inning seasons mount, we’ll start to look for some
drop-off in his numbers, but that is the least of my worries for 2018.
Scherzer has quite a bit of help on this pitching staff. Stephen Strasburg was limited to
175.1 innings, but they were 175.1 brilliant innings. Strasburg had a career year last
season with 5.6 fWAR and the best home run rate of his career. His strikeout rate dipped
a touch, but he also improved his walk rate and did a phenomenal job with contact
management. Strasburg allowed fewer home runs and posted a lower BABIP against.
This is a really important development. We saw Strasburg use his changeup more
effectively and he traded out sliders for curveballs. There is a curveball revolution going
on around baseball and Strasburg, who has always had a good one, upped his usage of the
pitch. Not only did he increase his use of the pitch, but it was his most effective pitch,
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coming in at 14.1 runs above average per PITCHf/x. His changeup was also the best it
has been since 2014. His fastball command has also been exceptional the last two years.
It may not seem like much, but Strasburg’s 175.1 innings were the most since 2014.
Hopefully this means good things going forward. With better contact management and an
improved ground ball rate, without sacrificing his strikeouts, I’m going to say that
Strasburg sets some more career bests this season and he could be a dark horse for the Cy
Young.
Gio Gonzalez is extremely interesting. Gonzalez spent most of the 2017 season posting
an ERA that was considerably lower than his xFIP. As a result, I kept looking at him as a
regression candidate. Gonzalez carried a lot of the telltale signs. He had a .258 BABIP
against, which was well below his career average of .293. He had the 2.96 ERA with the
4.24 xFIP. He had an 81.6 percent LOB%, which is too high for a pitcher with a strikeout
rate right around average. But, this is why it pays to look deeper. The Nationals pitching
coach for the last two seasons has been Mike Maddux and he is something of a changeup
guru. Gonzalez, who has always had a solid changeup and a solid four-pitch mix, had the
best season of his career with the changeup. It graded out 14.1 runs above average and
was the eighth-best changeup on a per 100 basis in all of baseball.
In 2017, Gio Gonzalez’s average exit velocity against was 85 miles per hour. In 2016, it
was 87.7 mph. In 2015, it was 87.4 mph. This is the new frontier of handicapping for me.
Contact management skills have become so important for pitchers. The way to counteract
the juiced ball and launch angles is to avoid the barrel. Gonzalez did that last season. His
low BABIP wasn’t a one-off anomaly. This was a concerted effort, via the changeup and
fastball, to induce weaker contact. It worked. Will it continue to work? We’ll have to wait
and see, but Gonzalez seems to have found something. Even if it isn’t wholly sustainable,
he’s been an above average starter for a long time and he will continue to be.
In a technical sense, I was both right and wrong on Tanner Roark. I talked up Roark last
year and isolated him as a guy that I wanted to back. His advanced metrics pointed to an
above average starter, with a 4.13 FIP and a 4.15 xFIP, but his 4.67 ERA was not great.
As the season went on, Roark was much better. He actually struck out 86 in 80.2 innings
in the second half and held opposing batters to a .292 wOBA. In the first half, Roark was
hurt by a 63.7 percent LOB% and a .316 BABIP against. In the second half, along with
his 7.4 percent K% spike, he had a .276 BABIP against and a 70.2 percent LOB%. I’m
buying stock again this season.
This is one of the better rotations in the National League as far as I’m concerned. AJ Cole
seems likely to fill the fifth spot role at first, but the Nats have depth in Erick Fedde,
Austin Voth, Edwin Jackson, and Tommy Milone. None of those guys are great, but they
don’t have to be with this front four.
What a difference a year makes. Sean Doolittle, Ryan Madson, and Brandon Kintzler
were all midseason acquisitions for the Nationals and they are the three primary relievers
in the bullpen. Doolittle posted a 2.40/2.76/4.20 pitcher slash in his 30 innings and had 21
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saves in 30 appearances. Madson made just 20 appearances, but was absolutely dominant
with a 1.37 ERA and a 1.07 FIP. Kintzler was solid with a 3.46 ERA, but the advanced
metrics look negatively on him because he doesn’t strike anybody out. The addition of
Joaquin Benoit adds another veteran arm to go with Shawn Kelley and then youngsters
like Koda Glover. This is a solid group.
Along with the plethora of pitching riches, the Nationals have a strong lineup as well. A
lineup that needed no help over the offseason in the mind of GM Mike Rizzo. The only
additions were small, as Matt Adams signed to be a part-time player and Howie Kendrick
returned after playing the second half with Washington.
Washington slashed .266/.332/.449 last season with a .331 wOBA and a 100 wRC+. That
wOBA ranked sixth in baseball and the offense could be even better this season. Trea
Turner, the burgeoning superstar, was limited to 447 plate appearances in 98 games.
Turner stole 46 bases, hit 11 home runs, slashed .284/.338/.451, and played average
defense at shortstop. Similarly, slugger Bryce Harper, who slashed .319/.413/.595 with a
.416 wOBA and a 156 wRC+, was limited to 111 games and 492 plate appearances. In
shortened seasons, these two were able to combine for 7.8 fWAR. With better health,
both players should easily eclipse five fWAR and create a little bit of surplus value.
We probably won’t see a 9.5-win season from Harper like we saw in 2015, but it is worth
pointing out that the 25-year-old is in a contract year and is expected to get fat stacks on
the free agent market. It is certainly in his best interest to have a big season and to stay on
the field.
The unsung hero of this team, who inexplicably hits sixth (hi, Dusty Baker) with
regularity, is Anthony Rendon. Rendon had the nicest season of all last year with 6.9
fWAR. He slashed a robust .301/.403/.533 with a .394 wOBA and a 142 wRC+. He also
played some of the best third base in the Senior Circuit with seven DRS and a 15.8
UZR/150. It was a career year offensively for Rendon, and we’ll have to see how
sustainable the K% drop actually is, but he is also a guy that has made it a point to enter
the Dance, Dance, Fly Ball Revolution and it has paid dividends. For those curious about
him in fantasy leagues, the power spike is sustainable and I think 30 is a real possibility.
Michael Taylor wound up a three-win player last year, though I’m not sure about the
sustainability of that. Even if his .363 BABIP is not repeatable (it isn’t), he plays a good
center field and has a bit of pop. He’s an average to above average regular, which is
plenty good enough as a complementary piece on this team. Adam Eaton will be back
after his season was limited to 107 plate appearances with a .297/.393/.462 slash. Ryan
Zimmerman will man first base again after hitting 36 dongs.
To me, there is no greater byproduct of the launch angle craze than Daniel Murphy.
Murphy has always been a solid, reliable player that plays okay defense and makes a lot
of contact. The last two seasons, though, Murph developed into more of a power threat.
He’s got 48 dingers over the last two seasons after hitting 62 in his seven seasons with
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the Mets. He posted a career-best .408 wOBA with a 155 wRC+ in 2016 and carried it
through with a .385 wOBA and a 136 wRC+ in 2017.
With bench bats like Matt Adams, Miguel Montero, and Howie Kendrick, and defense-
first players like Wilmer Difo and Brian Goodwin, this is a very deep team all the way
around.
Dave Martinez takes over as the skipper of the Nationals. It is weird to see a team jettison
its manager after a division title or a playoff run, but it happened twice this winter. The
Nationals and Dusty Baker parted ways and the Yankees severed ties with Joe Girardi.
Dusty Baker is a hard one for me. He seems like a players’ manager, but he is not a
skilled tactician. I don’t know what to expect from Martinez, who was the bench coach
for the Cubs under Joe Maddon, but I have to think he’s an upgrade to Baker and maybe
a significant one at that.
Why bet the under?
There are some pretty notable injury concerns for the Nationals. Adam Eaton’s knee
injury was particularly ugly. He’s been shagging fly balls in Spring Training, but hasn’t
really ramped up for the season as of yet. It will be interesting to see if his 2016 season
was the peak, when he amassed 6.2 fWAR with a 117 wRC+ and great defense in center.
With Michael Taylor in center, Eaton’s positional adjustment defensively will go down.
He has consistently posted a .345ish wOBA, so last year’s small sample size probably
isn’t what we should expect long-term. He’s a very good player, but that injury was a
serious one.
Eaton isn’t the only National with injury concerns. Bryce Harper was limited to 100
games in 2014 and then limited to 111 games again last season. He played through
injuries in 2016 when his offense bottomed out to a .343 wOBA after an MVP-caliber
season in 2015. As far as elite talents go, Harper’s peaks and valleys are some of the most
extreme that we’ve seen, with injuries being a key factor. It’s hard to figure out if Harper
will have an injury-filled two-win season or one of those six or seven-win seasons he’s
capable of. It won’t matter for the Nationals with regards to the division, but it may
matter with regards to a season win total bet. A healthy Harper takes this team a long
way.
As I sang the praises of Daniel Murphy’s last 286 games, I looked at that knee surgery
that he is still recovering from. I’m a big proponent in buying players that were able to
spend the offseason training instead of rehabbing. This is a concern with both Adam
Eaton and Daniel Murphy. Murphy had microfracture surgery over the summer. All
surgeries are different and all bodies are different, but Grady Sizemore had microfracture
surgery and was never the same. It is a pretty significant operation, especially for
somebody approaching 33 who plays a challenging position. The aging curve is pretty
sharp at second base as well. I would not be surprised to see Murphy have a down year.
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Anthony Rendon is a good hitter, but last year’s offensive explosion was pretty
unexpected. Rendon posted a solid 111 wRC+ in 2016 with quality defense and was a
4.7-win player. Last season, his K% fell to a career-best 13.6 percent while his walk rate
went up to a career-best 13.9 percent. I’m always a little wary of one-year BB% spikes
and K% drops. I need to see some sustainability from those. Rendon is still a very high-
floor player, but, again, when we’re talking about high win total numbers, the margin for
error gets very small. Between the injury risks above and some regression from Rendon,
this offense could lose some of its value in a hurry.
Ryan Zimmerman’s power production appears to be unsustainable. Zimmerman posted a
26.5 percent HR/FB%, which was the 37th-highest percentage since 2000 in a sample
size of over 2,400 individual seasons. Zimmerman’s career mark is 14.6 percent. It would
seem that he was a byproduct of the launch angle revolution, but he really wasn’t. His
FB% actually dropped from 2016 to 2017. His average launch angle last season was 8.3
degrees, which is actually below the 9.0 degrees on average in 2016. Zimmerman still
made a lot of hard contact, so Statcast has him down for an Expected wOBA of .370 from
last season, but that is 24 points below his actual .394 wOBA per Statcast calculations. I
think he’s a guy that falls back. The Nationals picked up an insurance policy in Matt
Adams, who is hitting more fly balls, by the way, with some of these same concerns in
mind.
Max Scherzer is elite, so the only concern there is if he gets hurt. There is a higher
probability that Stephen Strasburg does and misses significant time. Strasburg is coming
off of his highest workload since 2014. Gio Gonzalez is a guy I talked about earlier. We
have to get more data points with Statcast to see if there is a year-to-year correlation in
average exit velocity against, especially with pitchers that either made big arsenal
changes or significantly improved a pitch. It is very possible that Gonzalez regresses and
his LOB% should naturally regress anyway. Gonzalez posted an 81.6 percent LOB%.
Only Clayton Kershaw, Robbie Ray, and Corey Kluber posted higher LOB% among
qualified starters last season and all of them had at least a 10.3 K/9. High-strikeout
starters can carry high LOB% marks. It is much harder for guys that induce more contact.
Eight of the top 12 in LOB% had at least one strikeout per inning. The four that did not
were Gonzalez, Ervin Santana, Lance Lynn, and Jose Urena.
As you know, I’ve made it a point to focus on bullpens this season. Starters are throwing
fewer innings than ever before. Teams with elite rotations will net a lot of positive value
over the rest of the league, but bullpens mean so much more in this highly-specialized era
of baseball.
Sean Doolittle was great last season, but he is another major injury risk. Doolittle has had
shoulder and elbow issues. He worked just 39 MLB innings in 2016 and 13.2 in 2015. He
also missed the entire month of May last season. Ryan Madson missed all of the 2012
and 2013 seasons. He has made at least 60 appearances each of the last three years and
has been very effective, so maybe those concerns are in the past, but it is still a significant
injury history. I’m still not sure about a guy like Brandon Kintzler because I like my
relievers to miss bats, but he’s got those contact management skills. Joaquin Benoit was
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pretty bad last season and Shawn Kelley was one of the worst relievers in the Majors.
The Nationals really need Doolittle and Madson to stay healthy, otherwise this is a subpar
bullpen.
Pick: Over 92.5 (-130, BetOnline)
I’d probably grade this about a 7/10 as far as my confidence level. The Nationals easily
have the fewest question marks in the NL East. There are a couple of teams that had
lousy seasons that I am higher on this season in the division, but Washington is still the
best team here by a pretty fair margin and has played extremely well within the division
in recent years.
I really like the hire of Dave Martinez as well. I think he’ll have better opinions on lineup
construction and, as a Joe Maddon discipline, should have some more informed takes on
when to deploy relievers. Players seem to like Dusty Baker as a person, but most baseball
scribes and pundits aren’t on board with his skills as a tactician. My guess here is that
Dave Martinez is a comfortable upgrade. What that means in a quantifiable sense, I’m not
sure, but it certainly isn’t a negative and this team won 96 games last year.
The rest of the division is gradually closing the gap, but the Nationals are an excellent
team that could be even better with more luck on the health front. I like the depth in case
injuries pop up again, but this is, once again, a team with a very high floor and a pretty
high ceiling.
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Chicago Cubs
It seems a bit unfair that the 2017 season started on the road for the Chicago Cubs. They
had to wait until April 10 to hang a flag that means a hell of a lot more than a ‘W’ at
Wrigley Field. As it turned out, the W didn’t fly a whole lot in the first half and flew 11
fewer times in 2017 than it did in 2016. Of course, that was still enough to win the NL
Central and head into the playoffs. A repeat was not in the cards, as the Cubs fell in five
to the Los Angeles Dodgers.
It should come as no surprise that the World Series hangover was real and not at all
spectacular for the Cubs. It seems like winning 103 games and ending a 108-year drought
is a big deal. The Cubs were a pedestrian 43-45 at the All-Star Break, but reeled off 49
wins in 74 games after the Midsummer Classic to seize control of the division and march
into the postseason. When all was said and done, the Cubs won the Central by six over
the pesky Milwaukee Brewers and, incredibly enough, won consecutive division titles for
just the second time since the 1900s. A third straight division title would tie a franchise
record set from 1906-08.
The Cubs are certainly in good position to do that, as the NL Central’s top team. They
were 92-70 last season, with a 93-69 Pythagorean Win-Loss record and a 92-70
BaseRuns record. The tale of two halves does make it a little bit difficult to figure out this
team. How much of the first half was truly a World Series hangover and how much of it
was a regression to the mean?
Like most World Series seasons, it takes a perfect storm. The Cubs were one of the best
defensive teams of all-time in 2016. That regressed in 2017. Players that had career years
in 2016 took a bit of a step back. There is also something to be said about the long
season. Playing high-stress games for an extra month means one month less of training
and recovery. The Cleveland Indians were also a slow starter in 2017 and then the best
team in baseball in the second half.
Without a World Series hangover, the Cubs should be in better position to start well and
set the pace in the division. On the other hand, the division is improved, with a much
better version of the St. Louis Cardinals and a better version of the Milwaukee Brewers.
The Pittsburgh Pirates and Cincinnati Reds are still going to struggle, but the Cubs have
more competition at the top.
With high expectations leading to a high season win total line, the North Siders have a lot
of work ahead of them.
Season Win Total Odds:
5Dimes: 93.5 (110/-130)
BetOnline: (N/A at time of posting – will update)
Bovada: 94.5 (100/-130)
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Additions: Chris Gimenez, Yu Darvish, Tyler Chatwood, Brandon Morrow, Steve
Cishek, Drew Smyly, Efren Navarro, Ryan Court, Peter Bourjos, Jacob
Hannemann, Williams Perez, Luke Farrell, Anthony Bass, Daniel Camarena,
Michael Roth, Donn Roach, Shae Simmons, Cory Mazzoni, Kyle Ryan, Alberto
Baldonado, Randy Rosario
Losses: Jake Arrieta, Alex Avila, Wade Davis, Jon Jay, John Lackey, Rene Rivera,
Koji Uehara, Leonys Martin, Hector Rondon
The Cubs probably jumped the gun on Tyler Chatwood. They signed Chatwood to a
three-year, $38 million deal early in the free agency process, before it was clear just how
much the market would bottom out. But, patience was a virtue with Yu Darvish, who
took a contract that is probably close to market value, but the Cubs won the staring
contest between Darvish and his other suitors. Darvish replaces Arrieta and Chatwood
replaces Lackey. That feels like an upgrade.
The position player side was largely untouched in this winter’s flurry of transactions.
Chris Gimenez will serve as a player/coach if he makes the roster. Brandon Morrow will
slot in as closer in place of Wade Davis. Steve Cishek is a solid relief arm and the Shae
Simmons gamble is particularly interesting to me.
Why bet the over?
One of my biggest considerations from a season win total standpoint is depth. The Cubs
have a ton of it. Years of smart drafting and savvy trades have allowed the Cubs to build
up quite a core group of position players. Many players that have graced the bench for the
Cubs during this three-year run would be starters for other teams. The Cubs are certainly
willing to deploy their depth. Eleven players had at least 323 plate appearances last
season and the Cubs really didn’t deal with too many injuries.
Kris Bryant is a stud. Bryant posted a career-best .409 OBP and a career-best .399
wOBA, but he went from 8.3 fWAR to 6.7 fWAR. He actually dropped across the board
in a few categories. He went from 39 HR to 29 HR, which was particularly noticeable in
a season in which everybody seemed to hit 30 home runs. He did cut down his strikeout
rate for the second consecutive season and drew a walk in 14.3 percent of his plate
appearances. The defensive metrics took a bit of a tumble, but Bryant was still an elite
player, just not as elite as he was in 2016. Whatever 2018 holds for him, barring injury,
he will remain an elite player. We’ll see if the power returns and the defensive metrics
look more favorably on his performance to increase his WAR, but he’s a terrific starting
point for a contending team.
Anthony Rizzo did take a bit of a step back, as he failed to hit at least 5.1 fWAR for the
first time since 2013. He still had an excellent season with a .380 wOBA and a 133
wRC+. His contact quality went down a bit, as he had a .273 BABIP, which was 36
points below his 2016 season and 16 points below his 2015 season. Rizzo was a bit
unlucky with that BABIP, as Statcast had him down for a .281 BA. An eight-point
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increase would have given him a .400 OBP for the first time in his career. Basically,
Rizzo is a safe player to bet on and the projection systems are predicting bumps across
the board. I tend to agree. His consistency has been remarkable during this four-year run
and there’s no reason to expect anything else.
The fact that Willson Contreras was able to sustain his performance from 2016 was a big
deal for the Cubs. Getting offense from the catcher position is a luxury that few teams
experience. He’s also a quality defensive catcher, though baserunners were a lot more
effective last season than in 2016. Contreras slashed .276/.356/.499 in 428 plate
appearances. With so much depth on the infield and in the outfield, getting offense from
the catching position is such a nice boost. There is nothing that would suggest Contreras
will drop off either.
Here’s where it gets interesting and kind of fun. The Cubs really don’t have any
weaknesses. Albert Almora Jr. had a 103 wRC+ in 323 plate appearances and played
solid defense. Javier Baez is a fielding wizard with a well-rounded offensive game,
except for when it comes to drawing walks. He makes up for it with power and decent
speed. Ian Happ has prodigious power and the ability to play multiple positions. Kyle
Schwarber also has immense power than obscure his lack of range in the outfield. Jason
Heyward isn’t much of a hitter, but he’s a quality outfielder. Ben Zobrist had a down year
with some contact quality issues, but his versatility creates the opportunity for a lot of
value.
The Cubs have a lot of versatile players. Bryant plays some outfield. Zobrist can play
anywhere. Happ is an outfielder and infielder. Baez can play three infield positions and
can also run around the outfield a bit if need be. While a lot of these guys fell short of the
2.0 fWAR it requires to be “average”, most of them didn’t accumulate full-season stats
because they were part-time players. Bryant and Rizzo each accumulated over 660 plate
appearances. Baez was the only other player with more than 500. WAR is still a counting
stat because you need games and plate appearances to keep adding to the total. The fact
that the Cubs have so many players capable of being average or better regulars sets them
apart from most of the league’s teams.
A huge reason why the Cubs struggled last season, especially in the first half, is that their
pitchers were not able to sustain their 2016 performances. Some of that had to do with
fielding. In 2016, Cubs pitchers allowed a .255 BABIP against, which was the best in the
league by 27 points. It was the best BABIP against since the 1982 Padres posted a .254
BABIP against. The Cubs were still one of the better teams in that department in 2017,
but fell back to a more normal .285 mark. That was the sixth-best. The Cubs also went
from a 77.5 percent LOB% to a 74.2 percent LOB%.
Natural regression had a lot to do with why the pitching staff came back to earth. Those
two metrics were not sustainable in any way, shape, or form. On an individual level, it
hurt guys like Jon Lester, Kyle Hendricks, and Jake Arrieta. This season, though, the
Cubs have full seasons of Jose Quintana and now Yu Darvish to go along with Lester,
Hendricks, and Tyler Chatwood.
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In Lester’s case, an unexpected spike in his HR/FB% wreaked havoc, but not nearly as
much as the 68.7 percent LOB% he posted. Lester’s 2016 mark was unsustainably high at
84.9 percent. He also allowed a lot more home runs, with a career-high 15.8 percent
HR/FB%. That led to a 4.33 ERA. Lester’s 3.85 xFIP seems like a better barometer for
2018, which is still an xFIP that he hasn’t had since 2013. ZiPS has Lester down for a
3.54 ERA with a 3.71 FIP, which seems like a pretty reasonable projection. No matter
what, he’ll be better this season because he won’t post a 68.7 percent LOB% again.
Kyle Hendricks had another strong year with a 3.03 ERA, a 3.88 FIP, and a 3.76 xFIP.
One of the problems with advanced metrics like FIP and xFIP is that they don’t really
have the controls in place to evaluate contact management. Hendricks has some of the
best command in baseball, if we consider command to be the ability to throw quality
strikes that hitters cannot barrel. Among pitchers with at least 190 batted ball events last
season, Hendricks was sixth in average exit velocity against. He doesn’t rack up the
gaudy strikeout totals, but he stays out of the middle of the plate and really uses the
bottom of the zone effectively. We’d have to dig really deep into some of the alternative
stats at Baseball Prospectus to find a good run metric for Hendricks and that command
profile, so I don’t want to confuse you, but take my word for it that he’s special, even if
some of the stats I like to use don’t paint a complete picture.
Jose Quintana was strong in his 14 starts with the Cubs, as he posted a 3.74 ERA with a
3.25 FIP and a 3.24 xFIP. He also saw some big strikeout gains, that may not stick
around, but there are a lot of things to like. Prior to last season, Quintana hadn’t posted an
ERA above 3.76 in his MLB career and that came in his rookie season. His 3.68 FIP was
a tad higher than his career mark, but his 3.73 xFIP was right in line with his career
averages. Those all add up to a well above average starter.
Now Yu Darvish has been added to the mix. Darvish has been worth at least 3.5 fWAR in
four of his five season and the one season in which he wasn’t at 3.5 fWAR, he had 2.7
fWAR in just 17 starts. Darvish improved across the board when he went to the National
League and should be a good fit with this quality Cubs defense and his high strikeout
rates. Tyler Chatwood is another guy that will benefit from this defense and being out of
Denver can’t hurt. Both Darvish and Chatwood are trading up in the ballpark department
relative to where they’ve spent the majority of their careers.
The bullpen is solid. I don’t think that it’s spectacular by any means, especially with
Brandon Morrow closing. But, Morrow is coming off of a phenomenal season with a 2.06
ERA, a 1.55 FIP and a 2.94 xFIP in just 43.2 innings of work. Pedro Strop is a solid setup
man and Carl Edwards Jr. has K% of 37.7 and 35.9 over the last two seasons. The
bullpen also has good balance with a veteran with a quirky arm angle in Steve Cishek,
two solid lefties in Justin Wilson and Brian Duensing, and a swingman innings eater in
Mike Montgomery that can also provide starting pitcher depth.
Why bet the under?
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Let’s start with the starters here. To do that, we’ll start with Jon Lester, who gave us the
BSOHL, last week as the Cubs got things going in camp. The 34-year-old had a higher
K/9, but did have a lower K%. It wasn’t a significant decrease, but coupled with his
highest walk rate since 2011, it is a concern. The biggest concern that I have is contact
quality. Lester allowed a .256 batting average, which was his highest since 2012. He also
allowed the highest HR/9 of his career since his rookie season in 2007. For just the third
time in his career, he posted a SIERA north of 4.00. He also had the lowest Zone% of his
career.
Three key factors that I look for in terms of pitcher decline are Zone%, fastball velocity,
and any signs of declining command. Lester had disappointing marks in all three areas.
His fastball velocity fell down 1.4 mph with the four-seamer and across the board with
everything but the changeup. He had his worst season from a fastball command
standpoint ever per the Fangraphs Pitch Values. His cutter still registered as an above
average pitch, but that was the only one per PITCHf/x. Maybe it was the long 2016
season, but Lester failed to throw 200 innings for the first time since 2011. He didn’t
really get much better as the season went along, so I don’t think it was a hangover thing.
I’m actually worried about Lester this season. He crossed the 2,000-inning mark late in
2016 and we typically see pitchers start to have some problems when they reach that
point. I think he’s a guy that could struggle this season.
Kyle Hendricks operates on such thin margins because he doesn’t miss bats. The same
can be said about Tyler Chatwood, who is a guy that the Cubs isolated because of his low
exit velocities against and his ability to miss barrels. Any drop in command, be it from an
arm slot problem or an injury, could mean really bad things for those two pitchers.
Hendricks has a deeper arsenal, so I think he could still maintain some measure of
performance, but I’m not so sure about Chatwood.
Jose Quintana trended in the wrong direction a little bit in some areas. He did strike out a
lot more hitters, but I’m not buying the K% spike. Quintana’s swinging strike rate of 8.4
percent was right near his career average of 8.5 percent. His O-Swing% wasn’t any
higher than usual. Hitters missed at a higher rate outside of the zone, but took a lot more
pitches in the zone. His Z-Contact% fell to a career-best 61 percent, so he simply
sequenced well. Hitters took a lot of called strikes. I don’t expect a 26.2 percent K% this
season. Something closer to his 20.9 percent K% makes more sense. At that point, we
have to wonder if the higher HR/FB% is something to worry about. That spiked to a
career-high 13.2 percent. It was the fourth straight season with a higher FIP for Quintana
than the previous year.
These guys aren’t going to become bums or anything, but minor regressions add up to
bigger regressions. When you’re talking about a win total in the 90s, these are potential
problems. You need a lot of things to go right for a team to post that level of consistency.
The Cubs needed a huge second-half run to get to 92 wins last year. If they’re chasing
this number again, you’ll have a lot of reasons to be concerned.
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I’ve got bullpen concerns as well. I’m totally on board with the stuff of Brandon Morrow.
I am not on board with the health of Brandon Morrow. Morrow has made 299
appearances covering 828.1 innings since his debut in 2007. Since 2013, Morrow has not
worked more than 54.1 innings in a season. He pitched in all seven World Series games
last year after working 45 games in the regular season. I have no doubts about the stuff,
but I have serious doubts as to whether or not he can endure a full season.
Pedro Strop saw a sizable drop in his K% and a sizable spike in his BB%. Strop went
from a 32.1 percent K% to a 26 percent K%. His walk rate took a one-year tumble in
2016 to eight percent, but he returned to a double-digit walk rate last year. He was still a
solid reliever, but he did allow more hard contact last season. Hitters didn’t chase at the
same rate. It may have been one-year noise, but I’ll be watching closely.
Carl Edwards Jr. has to outpitch his ugly walk rate. With .162 and .192 BABIPs, it’s
certainly possible, so we’ll see if he can sustain those. He did induce a ton of weak
contact last year with an 82.5 mph average exit velocity against, but I still find it hard to
believe that a .192 BABIP is sustainable. After all, Statcast had him down for a .166
batting average against when he actually had a .134. Again, still great numbers, but with
his walk rate, any additional balls in play that go for hits can be problematic.
This is the thing about the Cubs. It may look like I’m nitpicking. It may look like I’m just
trying to stretch to make a case. But we’re finding little things that add up into bigger
things. The Cubs were still a very good team in 2017, but these little things added up into
a loss of 11 wins from the previous season. That’s not to say that the Cubs are going to
fall to a .500 team, because they’re not, I’m just saying that you can make a very strong
case that 93-95 wins is a best-case scenario for this team. And when the ceiling is that
close to the line, I have a very hard time looking to go over the total.
The depth on the position player side allows the Cubs to be able to withstand and endure
a lot of adversity, though there would be no way to replace Kris Bryant or Anthony
Rizzo. Still, a formula like this requires a lot of moving parts to live up to expectations.
Among the 14 players with at least 100 plate appearances, 10 of them posted above
average wRC+ marks. Three that didn’t are everyday players in Javier Baez, Jason
Heyward, and Addison Russell. A lot of these part-timers picked up the slack last season
when called upon. Once again, minor fluctuations adding up to bigger things. With a high
win total and a stronger division at the top with improved rosters in Milwaukee and St.
Louis, the Cubs are in a tighter spot.
Pick: Under 94.5 (-130, Bovada)
This is a pretty easy one for me and I do like this one a fair amount. The magical run that
the Cubs had in 2016 was exactly that. They get to fly a flag forever and a lot of players
had career years and the Cubs were one of the best defensive teams we’ve ever seen.
When that regressed back to a normal level last season, we saw a team that won 92
games. While the Cubs are still the front-runner for the NL Central in my opinion, this is
not going to be a run away. You’ll see my thoughts on the other teams as you move
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forward, but the Cubs should have some challengers this year and that means fewer wins
to go around.
This is still one of the deepest teams in baseball, but there are a few chinks in the armor
with the rotation and the bullpen doesn’t inspire as much confidence as past bullpens
have. I just don’t see a 95-game winner here. It could very well happen and the Cubs
certainly have the talent to get to that point, but I’m confident to bet the under here. If the
Cubs play .587 ball for six months to beat me, so be it, but they’ve got a lot of
competition for wins.
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Cincinnati Reds
For a while, one of the saddest things in Major League Baseball has been to see Mike
Trout stuck on a Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim team going nowhere. Now that the
immediate future looks a lot more promising for Trout and the Angels, that dubious
distinction goes to Joseph Daniel Votto. Look, I get it. Nobody is going to feel sorry for a
guy making $25 million per season through 2023, but it is really unfortunate that one of
the best hitters of this generation is stuck on a team has lost at least 94 games each of the
last three seasons.
It is pretty demoralizing to prepare for a season in which fourth place in the division is
the best that can be done. At least that would represent an upgrade for the Reds, who
have been dead last in the NL Central each of the last three years, but it still isn’t much to
shoot for. The Reds had their fun with a couple of division titles in 2010 and 2012, but
haven’t won a playoff series, including the loss in the 2013 Wild Card Game, since 1995.
That drought will extend another year this season.
But, as I try to preach for fans of teams that aren’t going anywhere, the season isn’t
defined by wins and losses. It is defined by individual development. It is defined by
finding those players that can be part of the core going forward and to identify those areas
of need. When it comes to the Reds, there are a lot of areas of need, but the prospect pool
is a little bit deeper than your standard hotel, but not deep enough to dive in headfirst.
The Reds were a 19-15 team through 34 games last season. Everything went to hell
shortly thereafter and the team wound up winning just 49 of its final 128 games. The
Reds were only 10 games under at the Break, but went 16 games under in the second half
and lost 10 of the final 12 to finish with 94 losses for the second straight year.
Cincinnati’s Pythagorean Win-Loss record was 70-92, but the BaseRuns record was
slightly more respectable at 72-90, as the Reds offense was projected to score 0.14 more
runs per game in a context-neutral environment. That doesn’t seem like a lot, but it would
be about 23 more runs over the course of a season and the timing of those runs could
make a big difference, especially for a team that tied with the fewest one-run wins with
13.
So, we head into another phase of the rebuilding process for the Reds. Expectations are
low. Are they too low? Let’s find out.
Season Win Total Odds:
5Dimes: 74 (-110/-110)
BetOnline: (N/A at time of posting – will update)
Bovada: 73.5 (-155/125)
Additions: Cliff Pennington, David Hernandez, Jared Hughes, Tony Cruz, Phil
Gosselin, Mason Williams, Rosell Herrera, Vance Worley, Daniel Wright, Kevin
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Canelon, Oliver Perez, Kevin Quackenbush, Joe Mantiply, Kyle Crockett, Dylan
Floro, Ben Rowen
Losses: Asher Wojciechowski, Bronson Arroyo, Zack Cozart, Scott Feldman, Drew
Storen, Zach Vincej, Chad Wallach, Patrick Kivlehan, Arismendy Alcantara, Vin
Mazzaro
There are very few interesting names on this list, which makes sense because the Reds
really have no reason to spend. A lot of their prospects are MLB-ready types of guys that
need to sink or swim at the big league level. David Hernandez is a solid signing to a
bullpen that could use some help in the setup and middle relief capacities. Oliver Perez is
a fun, little minor league signing with a non-roster invite.
Zack Cozart is a pretty big loss for this team based on last season’s offensive breakout
and with his defensive profile, but the Reds really aren’t going to be that much better or
that much worse without him.
Why bet the over?
The Reds are basically an afterthought in virtually every context, especially with
Milwaukee’s rise in the NL Central. Cincinnati was actually 10th in fWAR among hitters
and position players last season. The Reds weren’t a great offensive team, but they
generated some value on the bases and were one of the league better defensive squads.
They were seventh in defensive runs saved (DRS) and led all of baseball in Ultimate
Zone Rating per 150 chances.
With one of the best defenses in the league, the Reds were dead last in pitching fWAR
with just 3.6 wins above replacement player per the Fangraphs calculations. Only the
White Sox had a higher team FIP and only the Tigers had a higher team ERA. The reason
why the Reds were the worst in baseball is because they had the highest home run rate
allowed. You can’t field a home run, as it turns out, so the Reds really hurt themselves by
giving up dingers. Per xFIP, despite being 29th in ERA and FIP, the Reds were 22nd.
That means that if we regressed their team HR/FB% to league average, they would have
been a little bit more respectable. Cincinnati’s 16.8 percent HR/FB% was last by 0.4 over
the Padres. The year-to-year correlation of HR/FB% is up for some debate and obviously
recent developments with the juiced ball have throw a wrench into that.
A couple of the biggest culprits, Scott Feldman and Tony Cingrani, are gone. Amir
Garrett was another one and he’ll likely start the year at Triple-A. Tim Adleman was
another one and he is no longer in the organization. So, the Reds should have some better
fortunes in that regard, though Great American “Small” Park isn’t exactly a haven for
mediocre pitchers.
Joey Votto is very good. Being on a bad team as an elite player is really hard because you
don’t get the appreciation that you deserve. Votto posted a video game slash line with a
.320/.454/.578 AVG/OBP/SLG. He had a .428 wOBA and a 165 wRC+. Votto had a 19
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percent BB% and an 11.7 percent K%, which is just silly. He also hit 36 home runs, one
shy of his career high, which he set back in 2010. Say what you want about how teams
must be pitching around Votto, but they’re not. Per PITCHf/x, Votto saw a career-high
49.7 percent of pitches in the zone. And still had absurd BB% and K% numbers. His
Chase Rate of swinging at pitches outside of the zone was a laughable 18.4 percent. He
swung and missed just 5.7 percent of the time. We’re watching a master at his craft when
he’s in the box. I don’t see any reason it should stop. He is a spectacular hitter and he also
had a terrific year at first base defensively.
The loss of Zack Cozart is big, in that the Reds lost a player with five wins above
replacement player, but they have a really interesting set of position players. Eugenio
Suarez come into his own and posted a .260/.367/.461 slash line with a .356 wOBA and a
117 wRC+. He also played plus defense at the hot corner. The biggest thing for me is that
Suarez made high strides against same-side pitching. After posting a .299 wOBA with an
82 wRC+, a 24.4 percent K% and a 7.5 percent BB% against righties in 2016, Suarez
posted a .348 wOBA with a 112 wRC+, a 23 percent K%, and a 12.7 percent BB%
against righties in 2017. If you’re an everyday player, you’re going to face a righty about
seven out of 10 times. You have to be able to hit right-handed pitching. Suarez made a
tremendous leap in 2017 and I don’t see anything that looks unrepeatable this year.
The outfield is a lot of fun for me in Cincinnati. Billy Hamilton cannot hit a lick, but he
had 59 of Cincinnati’s 120 stolen bases. We should take pity on his offensive profile and
let singles and walks followed up by a stolen base count as doubles. He is also an
excellent center fielder with game-changing speed. If only he could post something
within 15 percent of league average at the plate.
But, the corner guys are really intriguing. Both Adam Duvall and Scott Schebler hit 30
home runs last season. These guys are basically lite versions of former Reds slugger
Adam Dunn. If they could draw some more walks, they would be really valuable players.
Both guys can punish a mistake and both guys are pretty useful defensively. Duvall was
actually +8 defensive runs saved in left field and Schebler was +2 in his time at all three
positions.
Room has to be made, however, for Jesse Winker, who slashed .298/.375/.529 with a
.384 wOBA and a 135 wRC+ in his 137 plate appearances. Winker has hit at every level
of the minors and profiles as a guy that can really help this team. He doesn’t have much
power, but he regularly posted double-digit walk rates with a high-contact profile. My
guess is that the juiced ball and the small dimensions of his home park could lead to more
power. He only hit nine HR last season, five in 2016, and 13 in 2015, but I’m betting we
see a bit of a power increase. He makes a lot of solid contact, but just doesn’t have the
launch angle to hit for power. Being around a transcendent hitter like Joey Votto can’t
hurt and his outfield brethren have the launch angle thing down. I think he’s a very
interesting player with some upside.
Scooter Gennett is a player to watch this season. Gennett doesn’t hit fly balls at an
abnormal rate, but he has paid a lot more attention to his launch angle. He hit 27 home
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runs last season, which is one fewer than he hit in 2,149 minor league plate appearances.
He hit 21 HR over his first three seasons with the Brewers, but has 41 homers over the
last two years. I’m really not sure that he can repeat a 124 wRC+, a .367 wOBA, or a
.531 SLG, but he’s proven himself to be something of a league average player. Projection
systems absolutely hate his chances to do anything of consequence, but Gennett had an
average launch angle of 12.8 degrees last season. That was up from 11.7 degrees in 2016
and well up from 10.5 degrees in 2015. Projection systems really don’t account for things
like that. They are evaluating based on recent stats and batted ball distributions. I’m not
pegging Gennett for a 20.8 percent HR/FB%, but I’d find it very surprising if he tanked
this year.
The Reds will be rotating four outfielders, plus Phillip Ervin on the bench, along with
Cliff Pennington, so they’ll have some okay position player depth.
This pitching staff was really bad last season, but none of the five projected starters for
the Opening Day roster worked more than 100 innings last season. Anthony DeSclafani
didn’t pitch at all and Brandon Finnegan only worked 13 innings. The Reds really had to
patchwork a rotation together this past season. In that respect, it isn’t that tough to project
some improvement.
Anthony DeSclafani, who posted a 3.28 ERA with a 3.96 FIP and a 3.99 xFIP in 123.1
innings during the 2016 season missed all of 2017. DeSclafani was diagnosed with elbow
tendinitis and got two separate opinions in August when things weren’t progressing in a
positive way. As it turned out, he never got going. An oblique injury early in 2016
limited him to 20 starts. DeSclafani has been a very effective hurler when he has been
able to be out there. He was a three-win pitcher across 31 starts in 2015. The Reds
rotation would look so much better with him in it, so hopefully he can get through the
Spring in one piece.
I still believe in Brandon Finnegan. Finnegan was limited to 25 innings across three
levels last season with two separate shoulder injuries. In 2016, he made 31 starts with a
3.98 ERA, but his 5.19 FIP and 4.87 xFIP really stood out. The 24-year-old was fast-
tracked to the Majors by the Royals, who wanted him in relief for their playoff run.
Maybe he has a bullpen profile, but I’m not fully ready to give up yet.
Those damaged goods would help the rotation tremendously, but the key to the rotation is
probably in the lightning bolt right arm of Luis Castillo. This cat throws hard. And he
missed a lot of bats last season. Castillo skipped Triple-A and worked 89.1 innings for
the Reds with a 3.12 ERA, a 3.74 FIP, and a 3.41 xFIP. His ground ball rate of 58.8
percent was well above any minor league season, but he also had a Major League home
run problem that he never experienced in the lower minors or Double-A. He worked over
169.2 innings across two levels and didn’t run out of gas late in the MLB season, so he is
a guy to bet on going into 2018.
Homer Bailey wasn’t great in his 18 starts, but he has a lot more potential than the other
guys that the Reds trotted out there last season. It looks like Robert Stephenson, who
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posted a 2.50 ERA with a 3.40 FIP and a 4.68 xFIP over his last 50.1 innings will make it
into the rotation. Stephenson has good swing-and-miss upside with questionable control.
If he can throw more strikes and stay healthy, he’s a guy that could add some surplus
value here. The Reds also have guys like Cody Reed and Sal Romano who were fairly
useful at the MLB level and prospect Tyler Mahle is about ready to go after making his
MLB debut last season.
The Reds bullpen has one of the better closers in baseball in Raisel Iglesias, who led the
team in fWAR last season among pitchers with a 2.49/2.70/3.25 pitcher slash in his 76
innings of work. I’m not giving up on Michael Lorenzen, the starter turned setup man
who had a 4.01 FIP and a 3.89 xFIP to go along with his 4.45 ERA. David Hernandez
will provide some solid innings as a veteran middle reliever. Amir Garrett is out of minor
league options, so he will likely be pushed to a bullpen role. Jared Hughes is pretty
reliable. Wandy Peralta was somewhat effective. The Reds should have something that
resembles an average bullpen.
Why bet the under?
The injury concerns in this starting rotation are off the charts. Anthony DeSclafani had
UCL damage per last season’s MRI, but it never really got worse and the team opted for
some rehab rather than a repair. It is not easy to buy into a guy that has made 20 starts
over a two-year period. Furthermore, while I really like what DeSclafani can provide,
he’s a high-end #3 starter or a low-end #2 starter at most. On this team, he’s thrust into
the role of de facto ace, unless Luis Castillo is elevated to that point.
Brandon Finnegan hasn’t been healthy or effective as a starting pitcher. When I say that
I’m buying Finnegan, it’s because I like the raw stuff. The polish simply isn’t there. The
walk rate has been high as a starter and he hasn’t had enough strikeouts to offset it. The
HR/FB% rates are pretty ugly overall. The ERAs haven’t been bad because Finnegan
owns a 78.5 percent career LOB% in his 240 innings of work. Any sort of regression in
that area and we’re looking at a pitcher that actually does post ERAs close to his FIP and
xFIP and that would be a very bad thing for the Reds.
Homer Bailey is supposedly healthy. Bailey has made 26 starts since the start of 2015 at
the MLB level. He hasn’t been very effective in those starts either, as he tries to find his
command from a few serious medical procedures. Bailey is a past Tommy John guy and
had an arthroscopic procedure last season. Then he had some shoulder discomfort late in
the year. Who knows what the Reds would have done with the money, but the six years
$105M given to Homer Bailey prior to the 2014 season remains a tough pill to swallow.
The Reds still owe him 3/68 with the $5M buyout of his 2020 option. I won’t believe it
until I see it with Bailey, that’s for sure.
Luis Castillo was terrific last season, but let’s see how he does after throwing 169.2
innings last season. His first trip around the league was mostly fun and games, but he’s a
6-foot-2, 190-pounder pumping cheddar in there at 97+. There have to be some injury
concerns with anybody like that, although he’s had a pretty clean bill of health in the
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minors. His K% at the MLB level was only surpassed by his rookie ball stint in 2013, so
I’d expect to see some regression in that area. As we start to lower his K% - BB%, and if
the home run rate increase wasn’t a one-year blip, then we start to see a depreciating
asset. Castillo has to be really good for this team. That’s a lot of pressure on the
sophomore starter, but it is the hand that the Reds have been dealt. It’s not Robert
Stephenson is a sure thing and neither are any of the depth options.
Outside of Raisel Iglesias, the bullpen isn’t really a strength. The Reds have a lot of
average dudes pitching in high-leverage situations and that usually doesn’t take a team
very far. David Hernandez is a nice veteran addition, but the 32-year-old is only one
season removed from having home run problems of his own. Jared Hughes has enjoyed
some high LOB% rates despite a 15.3 percent K%. Michael Lorenzen is average. Wandy
Peralta is average. In a general sense, average players combined with above average
players are just fine, but you need those guys that can carry the load. The Reds have one
in Iglesias and that’s about it.
It will take a pretty big effort to replace Zack Cozart’s production. Even if Cozart’s
efforts were a one-year outlier, Jose Peraza was one of the worst everyday players in
baseball and he’ll be taking up residence at Cozart’s position. Eugenio Suarez will have
to maintain his gains against right-handed pitching in order to be effective. Scooter
Gennett’s launch angle epiphany needs to continue because he’s not a great hitter
otherwise. Gennett was very lucky to post a .339 BABIP along with all those home runs
and a .236 ISO. We don’t typically see BABIPs like that with ISOs like that, so I think
there could be a fair amount of regression from Gennett.
The carousel of outfielders that the Reds have certainly has a lot of upside and potential,
but let’s face facts. Adam Duvall had a .301 OBP. Scott Schebler had a .307 OBP. Jesse
Winker doesn’t hit for a whole lot of power and is reliant on whether or not balls find
green grass. Billy Hamilton can’t hit at all.
The Reds are in a tough division. They may be on Pittsburgh’s level, or something
similar, but they are clearly behind the other three teams in the division. The Reds were
beaten 34 times by five or more runs and also had the fewest wins in one-run games. This
is a team that struggles to win games in any capacity and pitching has a lot to do with it.
Pick: Under 74 (-110, 5Dimes)
It will be another long baseball season in the Queen City. This offense could be fairly
enthralling with some good power in the outfield and one of the game’s best in Joey
Votto, but this pitching staff is really bad. There are significant health concerns and not a
whole lot of reliever upside behind Raisel Iglesias. I’m not sure how the Reds are
expected to improve by six games off of last season’s record when there weren’t any
moves of consequence and one of the team’s top position players from 2017 left.
Normally, I don’t like to bet on bad teams like this because I’m not all that interested in
trying to guess how bad they will be. I’d rather take teams projected between 77 and 83
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wins and see if I can find edges for them to be better than expected or worse than
expected. I know the Reds won’t be very good. But, I can say with a decent level of
confidence that I do not see this team avoiding 90 losses. The bullpen is not good, so the
rare leads the Reds do get will be precarious at best. Also, the offense is extremely
dependent on Joey Votto and if he happens to miss a month for something, that will be a
disaster.
Somebody has to lose games in this division and it will probably be the Reds again this
season.
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Milwaukee Brewers
The Milwaukee Brewers were my favorite over bet last season when it came to season
win totals and they did not disappoint. The Brewers won 86 games and were a factor in
the both the NL Central race and the NL Wild Card race. It was a tremendous
accomplishment for a team that has gone in a completely different direction over the last
couple of years after transitioning from the old-school approach of Doug Melvin to the
new-school approach of David Stearns.
It isn’t a coincidence that teams like the Brewers, Twins, and Diamondbacks, who made
progressive hires (of ex-Indians execs, by the way) of analytically-minded front office
personnel, took a step forward last season. That’s not to say that analytics are the be-all,
end-all, but the game has clearly changed over the last 20 years and it has changed at an
even quicker pace this decade. A lot of people mistakenly believe that analytics can only
be seen in terms of spending on the free agent market or in trade evaluation, but the best
validation of analytics, as far as I’m concerned, is to maximize in-house talent by finding
a different way of doing things.
The Brewers surpassed their season total because of their pitching staff. I, like most
scribes and pundits, loved the potential of the offense, but it was the pitching staff that
carried the offense after a hot opening month for the bats. Average pitchers like Jimmy
Nelson and Chase Anderson took enormous leaps forward and bullpen arms developed
right before our very eyes. The end result was a winner on my favorite season win total
bet and it wasn’t particularly close. As I’ve mentioned, I give a pick on every team, but
they aren’t always the strongest of opinions. This one was.
But, a one-off season tells us nothing. The Brewers need to keep those positive
developments going and the bar is much higher now than it was last season. I talked
about it last season that this was going to be a streaky team. Some days they would
frustrate the hell out of you, but other days you would marvel at just how impressive this
team was. In the end, the Brewers went 86-76 with a Pythagorean Win-Loss record of 85-
77. Per BaseRuns, the Brewers overachieved by a couple of games, but were right around
their season-long run differential.
This isn’t a situation in which the hunter has become the hunted. The Brewers are still
behind the Cubs and now the Cardinals in the NL Central hierarchy. But, it is clear from
the season win total odds and the hype about the team that the Brewers are on
everybody’s radar. Is the value gone or can we expect to see this team make noise in the
playoff race again? That’s what it will probably take to get over the season win total
number.
Season Win Total Odds:
5Dimes: 84.5 (-105/-115)
BetOnline: (N/A at time of posting – will update)
Bovada: 84.5 (-130/100)
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Additions: Christian Yelich, Lorenzo Cain, Jhoulys Chacin, Wade Miley, Matt
Albers, Boone Logan, Christian Bethancourt, Ji-Man Choi, Nick Franklin,
Radhames Liz, JJ Hoover, Ernesto Frieri, Michael Brady, Erik Davis
Losses: Michael Blazek, Kirk Nieuwenheis, Wily Peralta, Rob Scahill, Matt Garza,
Anthony Swarzak, Carlos Torres, Chris Colabello, Sean Nolin, Tyler Cravy, Neil
Walker, Jared Hughes, Isan Diaz, Lewis Brinson, Wei-Chung Wang, Andrew Susac
This should come as no surprise, but I love the offseason that the Brewers had. They
acquired two outfield upgrades with trade for Christian Yelich and the free agent signing
of Lorenzo Cain. The Brewers gave up a decent package headlined by Isan Diaz and
Lewis Brinson to get Yelich, but he is a cost-controlled upgrade that adds a lot to this
team. Cain slots into center field and allows the Brewers to be far more patient with
toolsy outfielder Keon Broxton.
The pitching staff additions could be hit or miss. Jhoulys Chacin and Wade Miley are a
little bit scary at Miller Park, but Matt Albers had his best season as a professional and
Boone Logan is an outstanding buy-low from the Indians after Terry Francona didn’t
know how to use the left-hander and then he got hurt. No-risk free agent grabs like
Radhames Liz, who had success in Japan last year, and minor league FAs like JJ Hoover
and Ernesto Frieri are smart.
The Brewers really didn’t lose a ton. They do have to replace three solid relievers in
Anthony Swarzak, Jared Hughes, and Carlos Torres, but that’s why they got Albers,
Logan, and stocked up on a few minor league FAs. They only had Swarzak for a couple
of months. Torres had a 4.89 FIP. Hughes was solid, but replaceable.
Why bet the over?
The offense was supposed to be the star of the show in Milwaukee and it wasn’t. The
Brewers got pretty poor production overall from the collection of bats. As a team, the
Brewers only managed a .249/.322/.429 slash line with a .321 wOBA and a 93 wRC+.
With wRC+ adjusted for Miller Park’s hitter-friendly environment, this was a team that
really did underachieve offensively. The Brewers didn’t walk enough to justify their
enormous strikeout rates. With all those deep counts, Milwaukee was only 11th in BB%,
but led everybody in strikeouts at 25.6 percent.
So, what do you do when the offense isn’t good enough? You make it better. Christian
Yelich is a pretty good start. Yelich, who is only owed $7M this year and $44.5M
guaranteed including the buyout of his 2022 option, gets out of a dreadful situation in
Miami and has been a 4.5-win player in three of the last four seasons. He makes a ton of
quality contact and has walked more than 10 percent of the time in all but one of his
MLB seasons. He’s an on-base machine that recently added a little more power to the
mix with SLG% of .483 and .439 the last two years. I would certainly expect better
power production at Miller Park. Yelich did start hitting a few more fly balls last season,
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so he may be trending in the right direction as he takes up residence in Milwaukee.
Yelich makes so much hard contact, though, that he’s one of the few guys okay with
maintaining a low fly ball rate. The defensive metrics weren’t overly kind to him in CF
last year, but he’ll play a corner in Milwaukee with Lorenzo Cain in center, so he may go
back to being a plus outfielder.
Speaking of Cain, the Brewers look to go with Yelich and Cain at the top of their lineup,
so they have two new table-setters for the power bats in the middle of things. Cain also
goes from a bit of a tough hitter’s park to a better offensive environment in Milwaukee.
The 31-year-old had a .300/.363/.440 slash last season and has been an above average
offensive player in three of the last four years. He’s a high-floor player anyway because
he produces some baserunning value and is also a dynamite outfielder. The Brewers were
15th in outfield wOBA last season and ninth in defensive runs saved. They’ve improved
in both areas with two significant upgrades in Yelich and Cain.
The Brewers only had four position players that graded out as average or better using the
fWAR scale where 2.0 fWAR is an average player. Travis Shaw and Domingo Santana
were the two that really stood out. Shaw fell off in a big way in the second half, but he
slashed .273/.349/.513 for the full season with a .361 wOBA and a 119 wRC+. Shaw
posted a .390 wOBA and a 138 wRC+ in the first half, but a .325 wOBA and a 96 wRC+
in the second half. He also played decent defense at the hot corner. Santana, like Shaw,
hit 30 home runs and slashed .278/.371/.505. Both guys were comfortably above average
and made a lot of quality contact. Santana swings and misses a lot, but he also walks a
lot. So did Shaw. With Cain around average in terms of BB% and above average BB%
marks from Yelich, Shaw, and Santana, this is going to be a very tough lineup to face.
Ryan Braun moves to first base, where his defense won’t be nearly as bad, and maybe it
will help his older legs from an offensive standpoint. Braun posted a .347 wOBA and a
110 wRC+, which was good enough. Eric Thames posted a .369 wOBA and a 124
wRC+, though most of his damage came in the first two months of the season. Catcher
Manny Pina was the other everyday player to post a 2.0 fWAR with decent offense and
quality defense. He’ll be in a timeshare with Stephen Vogt, who showed some power
with a .508 SLG in 129 PA, but struggled overall.
The Brewers have so many athletic players. Orlando Arcia’s offense is a work in
progress, but he is a plus defensively. Hernan Perez is a poor man’s Javier Baez with the
ability to play all over the diamond and do it with some level of efficiency. He was a bad
hitter last season, but posted a much more respectable 90 wRC+ in 2016 and stole 34
bases as a part-time player.
I harp on looking for surplus value. Jonathan Villar could be that guy for the Brewers. In
2016, Villar was off the charts. He was a poor defender, but he slashed .285/.369/.457
and stole 62 bases. He hit 19 home runs. As it turned out, it wasn’t sustainable, as Villar
fell to a .241/.293/.372 slash line with his usually bad defense. I don’t know what Villar’s
ceiling actually is, but I know that his floor should be higher than last season. Eric Sogard
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was a pretty useful player last season, so it isn’t Villar or bust for the Brewers, but some
semblance of that 2016 season would be huge.
There is a lot to like about this offense, which is good because we’ll have to wait and see
on the pitching staff. Jimmy Nelson is out at least through April following shoulder
surgery last season. He is reportedly healing much faster than expected, so we’ll see if he
can make it back quicker, but early projections were the start of June. He’ll be a nice
midseason boost when he does return.
When it comes to the Brewers, the dissidents are focused on the starting rotation. On
paper, it isn’t an impressive collection. Chase Anderson is the de facto ace, followed by
Zach Davies, Jhoulys Chacin, Yovani Gallardo, and Wade Miley, unless the Brewers opt
to go with Brandon Woodruff or my personal favorite Brent Suter. I can tell you that it is
very clear to me what the Brewers are hoping to do. They want to find guys that excel
from an exit velocity standpoint.
Let’s start by looking at Chase Anderson. This is what projection systems do not have the
capacity to figure out right now. You’ll notice that Anderson posted a 2.74 ERA with a
3.58 FIP and a 4.33 xFIP. Depth Charts has Anderson down for a 4.54 ERA and a 4.58
FIP. Steamer has a 4.76/4.67/4.54 pitcher slash. ZiPS is a little bit better at 4.32 and 4.50.
From 2016 to 2017, Anderson shaved 2.4 miles per hour off of his average exit velocity.
Among pitchers with at least 190 batted ball events, Anderson ranked 13th. (Brent Suter
was seventh, in case you’re wondering why he’s my favorite)
What happened? Anderson made arsenal changes. He incorporated more of a cutter. He
threw his curveball nearly five percent more often. He cut the usage of his changeup
down by eight percent. He also added velocity, which was an interesting development.
These changes made all of his pitches more effective, especially the curveball, which was
on the plus side for the first time in his MLB career. Projection systems mostly look at
distribution of batted balls, past performance, and some of the plate discipline metrics.
They don’t go to that next level. I’ve talked about this before, but contact quality is the
next big frontier for pitching and we’ve seen some very smart organizations, like the
Indians and Brewers, place heavy emphasis on this.
Do I think Chase Anderson repeats a 2.74 ERA? Absolutely not. But do I think he’s
closer to it than a 4.54 or a 4.76 ERA? Absolutely. He’ll still be a very viable starter for
the Brewers and I’m a believer in these improvements.
Let’s go to another Brewers starter in Zach Davies. Davies was 61st in 2016 in average
exit velocity against at 86.9 miles per hour, again using 190 batted balls as our cutoff. In
2017, Davies was 38th at 85.2 miles per hour. He induced fewer swings and misses and
had an awful start to the season, but he was making some of these arsenal adjustments.
Eventually, he finished with a lower ERA than he had in 2016 and he worked 191
innings.
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As we look at the pitch usage, we see that Davies also used his curveball more, his
changeup a lot less, and has been developing a cutter. If Davies can harness his curveball
more this season, I think we’ll see the best season of his young career. It was slightly on
the minus side per PITCHf/x pitch values, but only slightly. I would expect some more
growth from Davies and it doesn’t hurt that the Brewers will be better defensively.
You’ll never guess what I’m about to tell you about Jhoulys Chacin. In 2016, Chacin had
an average exit velocity against of 87.9 miles per hour, which ranked 133rd in a sample
size of 233 pitchers. In 2017, his average exit velocity against was 85.4 miles per hour,
which ranked 47th out of 228 pitchers. I think you get the idea here. Even Wade Miley
made some gains last season and my guess is that the Brewers think they can expound on
those and keep them going. Yovani Gallardo’s average exit velocity fell a full mile per
hour and his curveball usage climbed. I know exactly what the Brewers are aiming for
here.
Projection systems and bettors are going to look at these guys and scoff. Chacin had a
3.89 ERA with a 4.26 FIP and a 4.54 xFIP. He had a .272 BABIP against. Boom!
Regression! Anderson had a low ERA and a high xFIP. Boom! Regression! While I’m
expecting a certain level of drop-off, it will not be to the extent that most believe. Contact
management is truly something that I will be paying far more attention to this season.
Those looking to bet against the Brewers haven’t picked up on it yet and they may leave
us with some value.
That brings us to the Brewers bullpen. You’ll never guess what I’m about to tell you.
Jeremy Jeffress was second in average exit velocity against last season with at least 190
batted ball events. Matt Albers, along with a higher strikeout rate, was third among
pitchers with at least 100 batted ball events in average exit velocity. Josh Hader and
Corey Knebel are just pure, raw talents. Jacob Barnes was just outside the top 100 in exit
velo minimum 100 batted ball events, but 78th out of 325 if we up the search parameters
to 150.
Once again, this is something that is a new frontier for pitching metrics and it is now
publicly available now that we have Statcast data. Teams have probably had this
proprietary data for a while. The widely-used run metrics we have now are incapable of
evaluating something like this right now. Far more detailed metrics at Baseball
Prospectus or those used behind closed doors by teams can shed some light. Right now,
those that pay attention to these types of metrics can find value over the rest of the
market.
Why bet the under?
Expectations are certainly higher this season. After all, the Brewers’ season win total line
at time of writing last season was either 69.5 or 70. Now, the Brewers are expected to be
in the mid-80s without batting an eye. That is a significant leap in expectation. I
understand that the Brewers won 86 games last season and we can make a pretty solid
case that they got better with the trade for Christian Yelich and the free agent signings of
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Lorenzo Cain, Matt Albers, and Boone Logan, but Jimmy Nelson is out for the first two
months and this is still a team that may be buying stock in Yovani Gallardo and Wade
Miley. Any starting pitcher that could barely hack it with the Orioles is probably not a
good bet.
I certainly understand how not everybody would be willing to buy into my exit velocity
monologue above. I also understand that a guy like Chase Anderson, who had an 80.6
percent LOB%, should naturally regress. I did acknowledge above that he won’t be a
2.74 guy this season. We’ll see if the FIP can stay in tact, but he is the guy expected to
shoulder the load at the front of this rotation and that may be above his pay grade. Along
with the weak contact, Anderson suddenly went from an 18.6 percent K% to a 23.4
percent K%. There is reason to be a skeptic about that and about the total package when it
comes to Anderson.
The margin for error for Zach Davies is so small. I give the kid a ton of credit for battling
with such a low strikeout rate with the way that today’s game works. He was a punching
bag and a half before the All-Star Break with a .286/.351/.482 slash line against and a
.355 wOBA against. In the second half, he allowed a .254/.309/.360 with a .289 wOBA.
He allowed 15 HR in 97.1 innings in the first half and just five in 94 innings in the
second half. There were arsenal changes with more focus on the cutter and the curve, but
that is still a pretty significant swing for Davies.
Things have come full circle for Yovani Gallardo. Gallardo started his career with the
Brewers and now makes his way back there 12 years later. Unfortunately, instead of
being a promising prospect, Gallardo has posted ERAs of 5.42 and 5.72 over the last two
years, with FIPs and xFIPs above 5.00. Making a case for Gallardo to return to being an
effective hurler is not particularly easy. Considering this rotation has other concerns as
well, they really do start to add up as we go along.
Jimmy Nelson is coming off of a major operation and just had the best year of his career
by a large margin, so who knows what to expect this year. Unfortunately, both Nelson
and Anderson, who had an oblique injury last year, were hurt as hitters and baserunners
and not pitchers. Anyway, it will be interesting to see if Nelson, who tore his labrum and
needed additional work once doctors got in there, is able to keep up last season’s gains.
Shoulder injuries and procedures are often worse than elbows, so I’m expecting very little
from Nelson this year. That makes the outlook for the Brewers rotation much worse.
Save for Matt Albers, not a single person would be surprised to see Matt Albers come
back to earth. It’s not like 34-year-old pitchers are suddenly taking a 16.8 percent K%
and running it up to 27 percent. Albers also had a 92.4 percent LOB%. I’m afraid of how
the Brewers may deploy him and I’m certainly looking for regression. Sure, he induced a
lot of weak contact, but he had this ridiculous K% with an 8.7 percent swinging strike
rate. Hitters didn’t chase at any sort of obscene rate. Guys just swung and missed in the
zone more frequently and did miss when they did expand the zone. I think he’s a guy that
could see him drop-off.
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Corey Knebel is likely to fall back a bit as well, as he was really fortunate to pitch around
a high walk rate with a 91.9 percent LOB%. He had a 1.78 ERA with a 2.53 FIP and a
2.97 xFIP. He won’t fall totally flat, but regression towards that 2.97 xFIP does make
some sense. Jacob Barnes is a pretty average reliever. This bullpen may not be much of a
strength this season unless Knebel and Albers can stave off regression. We’ll also have to
see how Josh Hader is deployed.
Offensively, the Brewers are better with Yelich and Cain, but this is still a group that
needs some work. Travis Shaw’s second-half fall-off is an area of concern and so is the
.363 BABIP that Domingo Santana is unlikely to repeat. With his swing-and-miss, a
regression of his BABIP is likely to take his OBP from the .370 range to the .340 range.
Ryan Braun’s aging curve seems to be here. Braun’s numbers dropped across the board
and he also was limited to 425 plate appearances. He’ll be playing first base this season,
which may help him a bit, but his numbers with the positional adjustment at first base are
more like league average. He’s not going to create a whole lot of value this season.
The Brewers did acquire some pieces and have structured their roster to be better
equipped for the bad Eric Thames. From April 3 to May 9, Thames looked like the steal
of the 2017 winter when he slashed .327/.437/.743 with 13 HR over his first 135 plate
appearances. He had a .478 wOBA and a 196 wRC+. From May 9 on, Thames batted
.224/.335/.454. He was still just above league average by wRC+, but certainly wasn’t the
player he was at the start of the year. Interestingly enough, the Brewers had the third-
highest wOBA in the month of April and the sixth-highest in the first half. They were
25th in the second half.
This isn’t to single out Thames, but merely to point out that Milwaukee’s streaky offense
was a real thing last season. The Brewers won in spite of the offense, which was
supposed to be the strongest part of the team. This is a team that narrowly snuck over the
line for this year’s season win total and the only offenses worse in the second half were
Boston, San Diego, San Francisco, Pittsburgh, and Tampa Bay. The additions of Yelich
and Cain should help, but you have to be aware of what you’re getting into with this
offense.
Pick: Over 84.5 (-105, 5Dimes)
I am buying the Brewers again. I honestly love what this team is doing. Miller Park can
be a highly volatile environment for pitchers and yet the Brewers are thriving. Their
focus on contact management is the right way to go. Keep in mind that Milwaukee is one
of the smallest markets in baseball, so they can’t be out spending tons of money on
premier arms. Those financial constraints force teams to find creative ways of
maximizing the options in-house. I fully anticipate the Brewers to take some more strides
forward in that department.
The offense was supposed to shine last year and didn’t. Even if the pitching staff
regresses a bit, and I have no doubts that it will, especially with Jimmy Nelson out, I
believe the offense can more than make up the gap. That’s what acquiring Christian
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Yelich and signing Lorenzo Cain can do. I’d expect the Brewers to be extremely
competitive once again this season. I don’t know if they’re a playoff team just yet, but
everything is trending up.
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Pittsburgh Pirates
The Pittsburgh Pirates are a really challenging team to handicap for the 2018 season. The
pitching staff has certainly taken a hit with the trade of Gerrit Cole and the offense looks
a lot different, but this team is hardly devoid of talent like some would have you believe.
GM Neal Huntington is basically looking to do something that is extremely difficult. He
wants to rebuild while remaining competitive. It usually makes sense to go all in with one
extreme or the other, but the Pirates are hoping to develop on the fly and not be one of the
worst teams in baseball.
From 2013-15, baseball was pretty fun in the Steel City. The Pirates won 94, 88, and 98
games. Unfortunately, they failed to win a playoff series and lost the Wild Card Game
twice, including a ridiculous set of circumstances in which 98 wins wasn’t enough to
avoid the one-game playoff in 2015. The 87 losses endured by the Pirates last season
were the most since 2011 and now the team has started to change its roster.
Trades of franchise cornerstones often hurt more in the public eye than on paper, but
Andrew McCutchen’s resurgence was a big boost for the team last season. On the other
hand, where were the Pirates going with McCutchen anyway? He’s an impending free
agent and wasn’t going to re-up in Pittsburgh, so it made sense to get the best deal
possible.
Overall, this is a really interesting collection of players. If the prospect pool develops and
the current Major Leaguers can make some strides, this transitional year for the Pirates
may not be all that bad and the team will be set up well for the future. On the other hand,
if the guys that need to take the next step on the MLB roster falter, we could see more
shake-ups as a result of trades. If nothing else, this will be an interesting year for the
Pirates.
The Pirates were a 75-87 team last year with a Pythagorean Win-Loss record of 74-88
and a BaseRuns record 70-92, so they were actually quite fortunate with sequencing last
year. BaseRuns is a context-neutral standings metric that takes all of the outcomes,
removes the sequencing, and spits out runs scored per game and runs allowed per game.
The Pirates overachieved by .04 runs per game offensively, but by .19 runs per game
defensively, so they should have had something more like a -100 run differential.
As I look up and down the Pirates roster, I see something of a high-variance team. It
wouldn’t shock me if the Pirates lose 95 games and it wouldn’t surprise me if they flirt
with .500. Normally, these are the types of teams I find value with, so let’s see if that’s
the case with the Buccos this season.
Season Win Total Odds:
5Dimes: 73.5 (115/-135)
BetOnline: (N/A at time of posting – will update)
Bovada: 73 (-120/100)
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Additions: Corey Dickerson, Colin Moran, Bryce Brentz, Joe Musgrove, Michael
Feliz, Josh Smoker, Jordan Milbrath, Nik Turley, Nick Burdi, Ryan Lavarnway,
Todd Cunningham, Bryan Reynolds, Daniel Nava, Jason Martin, Kyle Crick, Kevin
Siegrist, Richard Rodriguez, Bo Schultz, John Stilson, Damien Magnifico, Tyler
Jones
Losses: Drew Hutchison, Joaquin Benoit, John Jaso, Wade LeBlanc, Chris Stewart,
Brandon Cumpton, Joey Terdoslavich, Gift Ngoepe, Gerrit Cole, Andrew
McCutchen, Shane Carle, Daniel Zamora, Tristan Gray, Daniel Hudson
Proven talent went out and unproven talent came in. That was the story for the Pirates
this offseason. The trade of Gerrit Cole to Houston returned Jason Martin, Michael Feliz,
Colin Moran, and Joe Musgrove. Two days later, the trade of Andrew McCutchen
brought back Bryan Reynolds and Kyle Crick.
The Pirates are now a team with a lot of Major League-ready prospects. Colin Moran has
a couple cups of coffee at the MLB level and he’ll make the Opening Day roster. Austin
Meadows, the #2 prospect in the organization, is in Triple-A. Bryan Reynolds could be a
September call-up. Kevin Newman, the #6 prospect per Baseball Prospectus and #5 per
Baseball America, is in Triple-A. Tyler Glasnow has a bit of MLB experience and so
does Kyle Crick.
The Pirates also gambled on Nick Burdi, the former Phillies prospect who will miss at
least half of the season recovering from Tommy John. The Pirates will now trust their
player development staff and minor league coaches to rebuild this organization.
Why bet the over?
The Pirates have a good home field advantage. PNC Park is one of the worst offensive
parks in the league and it should come as no surprise that a marginal Pittsburgh offense
still managed to go 44-37 at home. In an era in which juiced balls and launch angles
dominate the headlines, PNC Park has mostly been immune to those trends. Away teams
posted a .316 wOBA at PNC Park, which was the fourth-lowest in baseball last season.
Only AT&T Park (SF), Petco Park (SD), and Citi Field (NYM) were lower. That will
certainly be helpful again this season.
This season isn’t necessarily a make-or-break year for Starling Marte and Gregory
Polanco, but they will be key cogs in this Pirates machine. Marte missed 80 games last
season because he was suspended for use of a banned substance. As a result, Marte was
limited to 77 games and just 339 plate appearances. After averaging 4.1 fWAR over the
previous four seasons, Marte was limited to 1.2 fWAR. PNC or not, Marte flirted with 20
home runs in 2015, but only hit seven last season and had a career-worst .379 SLG.
Marte has been a guy with gap power that has racked up extra-base hits in the past, but it
didn’t happen last season. His .312 wOBA was his lowest since his abbreviated 2012
rookie season and 25 points below his lowest full season. Marte needs to get back to
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being a productive hitter. His defense won’t be a plus in center like it was in left, so it’s
all about his offensive profile. With the suspension in the past, hopefully he can return to
being a four-win player.
Gregory Polanco has been a big disappointment. The 6-foot-5 outfielder possesses good
speed, but the contact quality has never caught up to the good contact rates and the 2016
power spike proved to be unsustainable. Polanco hit 22 HR in 2016, but fell back to 11 in
411 plate appearances last season. After a couple of two-win seasons, Polanco was worth
just 0.5 fWAR, as he posted a paltry .297 wOBA and an 81 wRC+. Remember that
wRC+ is park-adjusted, so even with the pity given to Pittsburgh hitters, he was still
almost 20 percent below average. Polanco’s BB% cratered to 6.6 percent after being 8.4
percent or higher in his previous three seasons.
These two guys are huge for the Pirates. Both are signed to team-friendly deals, as
Marte’s guaranteed deal runs through 2019 with two option years and Polanco is through
2021 with two option years. Marte is 29 and Polanco is 26, so both guys still have some
good years left to give. For win total bettors, they need more from these two, but in a
more practical sense, the Pirates need more.
Josh Harrison figured it out a little bit offensively last year. After bursting onto the scene
with a 137 wRC+ and a .365 wOBA in his first full season in 2014, Harrison fell off
dramatically in both 2015 and 2016. He posted below average wRC+ marks and virtually
no power. Harrison hit 16 HR last season and posted a .332 wOBA. Harrison elevated
more often and made an enormous launch angle change. Harrison went from an average
of 11.5 degrees in 2016 to 15.6 degrees in 2017. I would expect, even with PNC, that
Harrison’s power spike is legit. That is the key to his offensive profile because he doesn’t
walk. He’ll need to hit for some power and improve his contact quality. He’s a highly
versatile player, which certainly helps his value. He’ll play second while we wait and see
what happens with Jung Ho Kang, who has been suspended from MLB for DUI issues in
Korea.
Colin Moran could help define the ceiling for the Pirates offense. Moran slashed
.308/.373/.543 in 338 plate appearances at Triple-A Fresno before making his MLB debut
and subsequently getting hurt. Moran has been a pretty decent hitter in the minor leagues
and saw a nice power surge in Fresno. Eric Longenhagen and Kiley McDaniel had Moran
53rd on the Fangraphs Top 100 Prospects list, noting that Moran made some changes to
his swing that unlocked some power. We’ll see how that power plays going from hitter-
friendly Fresno/Houston to pitcher-friendly PNC, but he’s a decent third baseman.
Corey Dickerson is an interesting add, especially at the cost of a decent reliever in Daniel
Hudson, but it does feel like the Pirates are hoping to compete a little more in the power
department this year. Josh Bell has some power and hit 26 HR last season with a .338
wOBA. Moran is a launch angle disciple. It certainly seems like the Pirates are hoping for
some growth in all of those areas.
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The supplemental players here are okay. Jordy Mercer has a bit of power and can play an
average shortstop. David Freese still hits lefties well on the thin side of the platoon. Sean
Rodriguez is back. Adam Frazier is versatile.
The Pirates have some outfield help in the minors in Austin Meadows and Jordan
Luplow, who have both had some quality offensive seasons. Jason Martin and Bryan
Reynolds aren’t far behind.
Jameson Taillon becomes the de facto ace for the Pirates with Gerrit Cole in Houston.
Taillon had a really rough 2017 season. Well, Jameson Taillon has had a rough career.
Taillon missed all of 2014 because of Tommy John and then all of 2015 due to a sports
hernia. He worked 28 games between Triple-A and the big leagues in 2016 and was quite
solid. Early in the 2017 season, Taillon was diagnosed with testicular cancer. Through it
all, he still had a fine season with a 3.48 FIP and a 3.89 xFIP. His 4.44 ERA was the
byproduct of a .352 BABIP. Per Statcast, Taillon’s expected batting average against was
.251, but his actual average against was .290. He should see some positive gains in that
area this season. Taillon also bumped up his strikeout rate a bit. It will be interesting to
see what he does with a full, healthy season. Hopefully he gets one. If so, we’ll see his
first three-win season with room for a lot more. Projection systems are really buying in
with Taillon on pace for four WAR if he stays healthy.
The Pirates rotation isn’t blessed with a ton of upside, but there are a lot of average or
slightly better arms. Ivan Nova saw some regression in his BABIP, HR/FB% and LOB%
in the second half, but still finished with a 4.14 /4.46/4.19 pitcher slash. Keep in mind
that average is about a 4.50 FIP and xFIP in both leagues nowadays. That means that
Trevor Williams, who had a 4.07/4.03/4.49 is above average. Chad Kuhl had a 4.35 ERA
with a 4.24 FIP. Joe Musgrove has a 4.31 FIP and a 4.03 xFIP in his 171.1 MLB innings
and he goes from Houston to a better park for suppressing power in Pittsburgh.
This rotation isn’t great, but it can be average, especially with the safety net of PNC Park.
Tyler Glasnow and Steven Brault are decent depth options in the minors and there is still
hope for Nick Kingham, who is a top-10 prospect in the org per Baseball America. Mitch
Keller, the consensus top prospect for the Pirates, could make his MLB debut this season.
The bullpen might be okay. Felipe Rivero is a top-10 reliever in baseball from a stuff
standpoint and should only get better. Michael Feliz missed a lot of bats for the Astros,
but fell victim to a lot of hard contact, with a 15.1 percent HR/FB% and a .381 BABIP
against. Hopefully PNC Park helps him a bit. George Kontos was effective last year in a
small sample size and Josh Smoker is a nice matchup lefty.
Why bet the under?
You can see precisely why the Pirates are a team that could lose a lot of games. The
offense is predicated on bounce back efforts from guys like Starling Marte and Gregory
Polanco. Josh Harrison’s launch angle improvements have to be legit. Josh Bell has to
keep hitting. Colin Moran needs to develop. Betting on power at PNC Park seems ill-
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advised, so the pick-up of Corey Dickerson, who has to trot around the outfield and can’t
DH, is a problem.
Not that Andrew McCutchen was a great center fielder, but Marte has been a plus in left
and simply an average fielder in center. We’re already cutting into his offensive value
with declining contact quality and the drop in power. Marte doesn’t walk enough to
produce a whole lot of offensive value unless he’s stealing bases and hitting the
occasional dinger. Marte had 48 extra-base hits in just 529 plate appearances in 2016. In
2017, he only had 16 in 339 plate appearances. Because he can play a passable center
field and steal 20-30 bases, the floor is fairly high, but creating 3+ fWAR might be a
stretch right now until we see that gap-to-gap power return so he can move more than 90
feet at a time.
Everything about Gregory Polanco trended down last season, except for the improved
strikeout rate. That’s the sad part about Polanco’s season. He put the ball in play a lot
more often, but there was no semblance of contact authority when he did it. His home run
total was cut in half, albeit in 176 fewer plate appearances. He walked a lot less. He
didn’t steal bases. Polanco dealt with a shoulder injury in Spring Training that never
seemed to heal, but the ceiling has honestly been pretty low thus far for a player of
Polanco’s ilk. I’m not really buying in at this point.
David Freese is useful on the thin side of the platoon. Josh Bell has a bit of power, but the
Pirates really need to overhaul his batted ball profile. Bell hit 26 home runs with a 19.1
percent FB% because he doesn’t hit enough balls in the air. Perhaps the Pirates have
worked on that, and maybe the signing of Corey Dickerson is a sign that they will. Bell
played good defense last year, but first base defensive metrics can be a bit wonky from
year-to-year. Jordy Mercer isn’t a great shortstop at the plate of in the field. Adam Frazier
has no power. Francisco Cervelli has very little contact authority. The Pirates are a pretty
light-hitting team unless Marte and Polanco get things figured out.
I really like Jameson Taillon, but the health risks are there. Hopefully the testicular
cancer is long gone, but he is a guy that missed two full seasons because of injuries. He
hasn’t worked more than 165.2 innings in a season. However many innings Taillon can
provide, they will be solid, but he’s the only clear above average starter on this roster.
There will be a lot of emphasis and pressure on him to provide innings.
Ivan Nova is a guy. He’s become a durable guy, but a guy. If Chad Kuhl’s K% can take
another step forward, maybe he’s something, but he allows a lot of hard contact. Trevor
Williams doesn’t miss a lot of bats, so we’ll see if he can maintain some good exit
velocity numbers.
A collection of average starters with an average bullpen and a below average offense is a
recipe for disaster. That’s what the Pirates are looking at and the bullpen is only average
because Felipe Rivero is that damn good. If he gets hurt, this will be one of the worst
bullpens in all of baseball, not just the NL Central or the NL. The Pirates lost Daniel
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Hudson, who wasn’t great last year, but was a reliable setup man, and also Juan Nicasio,
who was great last year in 65 appearances.
There are a lot of problems with this team and if we compare the ceiling to the floor, I’ve
got a pretty good idea of which one the Pirates will be closer to.
Pick: Over 73.5 (+115, 5Dimes)
I will not be making this play and I don’t like either side of this win total. The Pirates
have a lot of talent, but getting that talent to play up to its potential is another discussion.
If guys like Starling Marte, Gregory Polanco, Austin Meadows, and some of the young
arms, like Tyler Glasnow and Nick Kingham, can figure it out, this is a team that could
finish somewhere in the77-78 range. Unfortunately 90 losses could be very possible.
After all, the Pirates nearly lost 90 games last season and had Gerrit Cole and Andrew
McCutchen.
PNC Park is awful for hitters, so I fully anticipate Pittsburgh still being .500 or better at
home. Can we get 33 road wins? I don’t know. Sometimes it is simply better to just pass
on a win total and this is one of them. I don’t think the Pirates are as bad as they showed
last season. I don’t think the team is devoid of skill. I do think that it is a big year for
certain individuals and I’m not sure how they will respond.
Save your money and make a play on somebody else.
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St. Louis Cardinals
If you are looking for an upset winner in one of the five non-AL East divisions, look no
further than the St. Louis Cardinals. The Cardinals seem like the most likely team to
unseat the Chicago Cubs and the NL Central certainly seems like the most attainable
division to nab for a team that did not win the top spot last year. The Indians, Nationals,
Dodgers, and Astros all look to be in good shape to repeat and the AL East dogfight
between the Red Sox and Yankees should be interesting.
The Cardinals were 83-79 last season, which is the fewest number of wins that the
Cardinals have had since 2007. St. Louis finished outside of the top-two spots in the NL
Central for the first time since 2008. The alternate standings metrics liked the Cardinals,
though. By Pythagorean Win-Loss, the Cardinals underachieved by four games. By
BaseRuns, the Cardinals were five games worse than they should have been. Even
without the offseason transactions, bettors would have been looking at the Cardinals to
improve this season, but the clear improvements made over the winter are simply more
fuel to the fire.
The Cardinals only won three of 10 to close out the season. Ultimately, it was a 27-44
record against teams .500 or better that hurt St. Louis. The Cardinals had a 24-29 record
in one-run games, which wasn’t outlandish by any means, but they couldn’t beat good
teams. Well, let’s narrow it down a bit more – the Cardinals couldn’t beat the Cubs.
Chicago was 14-5 against the Cardinals in their 19 meetings. Milwaukee also won 11 of
19. The Cardinals were 0-7 combined against Boston and New York. So, there you have
it. They beat up on the bums and lost when they had to step up in class.
For most of the season, the Cardinals were a bit unlucky. They were 43-45 at the Break,
despite being +13 in run differential. In the second half, they were 40-34 and had a +43
run differential, which was still a tad below expectations, but the ugly stretch over the last
10 games was enough to seal the deal. The Cardinals were +28 runs away from home and
managed only a 39-42 record.
The buy signs are lit up for the Cardinals this season, but the market has responded
accordingly by setting a pretty lofty season win total number. The Cardinals didn’t add a
whole lot to the position player side, but retooled the bullpen and have high hopes going
into 2018.
Season Win Total Odds:
5Dimes: 86.5 (100/-120)
BetOnline: 86.5 (-110/-110)
Bovada: 85.5 (-135/105)
Additions: Marcell Ozuna, Miles Mikolas, Luke Gregerson, Dominic Leone, Bud
Norris, Francisco Pena, Steve Baron, Max Schrock, Yairo Munoz, JB Woodman,
Granden Goetzman, Conner Greene, Jason Motte, Preston Guilmet
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Losses: Zach Duke, Lance Lynn, Juan Nicasio, Seung-hwan Oh, Miguel Socolovich,
Trevor Rosenthal, Aledmys Diaz, Stephen Piscotty, Sandy Alcantara, Magneuris
Sierra, Daniel Castano, Zac Gallen, Randal Grichuk
The Cardinals made a pretty big splash when they took advantage the Miami Marlins
half-off sale to grab Marcell Ozuna. The Cardinals did pay up a bit more, at least relative
to the Giancarlo Stanton deal, as they moved a package of youth including Sandy
Alcantara and Magneuris Sierra to South Florida.
Basically, the Cardinals made a move for every loss, with the exception of that Ozuna
deal. To replace Zach Duke, Juan Nicasio, Seung-hwan Oh, and Trevor Rosenthal, the
Cardinals grabbed Luke Gregerson, Dominic Leone, Bud Norris, and Jason Motte. To
replace Lance Lynn, they grabbed Miles Mikolas, who spent last year pitching in Japan.
Aledmys Diaz was the cost of acquiring Leone and Stephen Piscotty’s trade was an
example of baseball being a business, but one that sometimes has empathy. He was
traded to Oakland for some middle infield depth and to be closer to his mom with ALS.
All in all, it was a pretty good offseason for the Cardinals, who really didn’t need to add a
whole lot to the roster.
Why bet the over?
Fangraphs and Baseball-Reference recently unified what “replacement-level” truly means
for a team. A team full of guys with 0.0 fWAR would go 48-114 over a 162-game season.
The Cardinals were eighth in position player fWAR at 24.6 and 10th in pitcher fWAR at
16.7. Now, this isn’t an exact science by any means, but people much smarter than me
have determined the replacement-level baseline. As you can see, the Cardinals were at
41.3, so this is a team that did underachieve in some respects last season. Obviously you
don’t want to treat this as gospel, but to say that on an individual level the Cardinals were
more like an 89-win team is noteworthy. It’s basically what the Depth Charts projections
do at Fangraphs. They aggregate individual player WAR based on projected stats and
playing time to spit out a record.
One thing that really separates the Cardinals from a lot of teams is that they are not going
to be below average at many positions. On the WAR scale, an average player over the
course of a full season would amass 2.0 fWAR. Seven position players exceeded that last
season and the eighth and ninth guys, Jose Martinez and Randal Grichuk, were worth 1.6
and 1.4 fWAR, respectively. Basically, the Cardinals are average or better at every
position in the starting eight. Stephen Piscotty, Aledmys Diaz, and Greg Garcia were the
only players with over 100 plate appearances to post lower than 1.4 fWAR. Piscotty and
Diaz are both gone and Garcia is a utility infielder that still managed to walk a fair
amount. He just has no power.
And the Cardinals will add a huge offensive piece in Marcell Ozuna. With Tommy Pham
in center and Dexter Fowler in right, Ozuna basically takes over for Randal Grichuk and
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Stephen Piscotty. Ozuna was a 4.8-win player last season for the Marlins. We’ll see if his
power can stick around. The BABIP won’t, but the 27-year-old is a solid corner
outfielder with good pop and he also increased his walk rate last season. He’s going to fit
really well into a Cardinals lineup loaded with dudes that work counts and have at least
average or better power. Ozuna hit a career-best 37 HR last season and had a 23.4 percent
HR/FB%. He was not part of the elevation craze, as his FB% actually went down and his
average launch angle was only 10 degrees, so I do think that we need to temper
expectations, but tempering expectations means that he’s probably a 3.5 or four-win
player this season instead of almost a five-win player. With a better roster around him,
that’s still plenty good enough.
Tommy Pham was nearly a six-win player last season. Again, we need to temper
expectations a little bit, as Pham hit 23 HR, stole 25 bases, and slashed .306/.411/.520
with a .398 wOBA and a 148 wRC+. It was the byproduct of a .368 BABIP and he got
fortunate that his fly balls left the yard, but Pham still does make a lot of solid contact. He
also plays good defense. He’ll be in center full-time now, so we’ll see how that goes, but
Pham played above average defense as an outfielder last year. He’s another of many
high-floor players for the Cardinals.
Paul DeJong will probably fall off, as yet another high BABIP guy, but he’s a versatile
player that does make really clean contact when he makes it. The high-strikeout, low-
walk profile isn’t my favorite, but we can’t ignore that he hits the ball really hard. Around
the rest of the infield, Kolten Wong has a high-OBP skill set and some speed. Jedd
Gyorko is a terrific utility infielder with pop. Matt Carpenter is a high-OBP guy that had
some contact quality issues last season that led to a .274 BABIP, which was quite a bit
below his .321 career average, so he’s one of the guys that could create some surplus
value that makes up for a drop from Pham or DeJong.
Yadier Molina is still getting it done offensively at a good clip for a catcher and remains
one of the league’s better defensive backstops. Pitchers also love throwing to him. He
puts a ton of balls in play. Dexter Fowler walks a lot and had a .363 OBP last season.
Jose Martinez also walks a lot and had some good batted ball fortunes.
The Cardinals have no clear weaknesses in this lineup. They have some guys whose
performances will fluctuate a little bit, mostly to the negative side, but these are all high-
floor players that are almost all competent or better defensively. As I’ve talked about
before, calling players “average” in MLB terms is not a negative term. Most players
strive to be average when all is said and done. The Cardinals have a ton of guys that are
average or better and that creates the opportunity to have a really special offense and a
pretty good defense as well.
One guy who is anything but average is Carlos Martinez. CMart worked his first 200-
inning season and hung a 3.64 ERA with a 3.91 FIP and a 3.63 xFIP. One of those true
breakout seasons is coming at some point. The Cardinals are plenty content to see three
consecutive three-win seasons, but the stuff profile is too good for Martinez to not take it
up another level. Martinez was hurt last year by a 16.4 percent HR/FB%. You can deal
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with the slightly elevated walk rate because he strikes out over a batter per inning. It
seems like one thing has held Martinez back each year. In 2017, it was the home run rate.
In 2016, it was drop in strikeouts. In 2015, it was a .318 BABIP against. It feels to me
like 2018 could be the breakout. The projection systems are on board, all projecting more
than four fWAR. I’ll buy it, too. I think this is the year.
Michael Wacha came into the 2017 season in line for some positive regression. Wacha
had a 5.09 ERA thanks to a 64.7 percent LOB%. He had a 3.91 FIP and a 4.05 xFIP, but
was held to 138 innings because of injuries. Last season, Wacha wasn’t all that durable,
as he only worked 165.2 innings in 30 starts, but had a 4.13 ERA with a 3.63 FIP and a
3.88 xFIP. That set of numbers was good for a career-best 3.2 fWAR. Wacha had a
career-best 22.5 percent K% in a full season and kept his walk rate right around his career
average. Balls in play were still a bit of a problem, but he pounded the strike zone and
that was the key. Wacha had a career-best 65.8 percent first-pitch strike percentage. I’ve
mentioned it before, but strike one is monumentally important. After a first-pitch strike,
hitters batted just .223/.268/.359. After a first-pitch ball, hitters batted .272/.387/.470.
Wacha’s ability to get ahead more often allowed his secondary pitches to shine and he
had the best year of his career. We’ll see if he can sustain that, but, as has been the theme
here, he is a pretty high-floor guy.
This is where it gets fun for the Cardinals. They’ve got a dynamic pitching prospect in
Luke Weaver that is all but assured a spot in the rotation and a recovering dynamo in
Alex Reyes, who is on the comeback trail from Tommy John. It seems like the Redbirds
will be taking it easy with Reyes, but Weaver should be all systems go. In 10 starts and
three relief outings last year, Weaver had a 3.88 ERA with a 3.17 FIP and a 2.93 xFIP.
He struck out 72 in 60.1 innings of work against just 17 walks. He got tagged in his last
start to throw his smalls sample size numbers off, but he was terrific across two levels
last season. Reyes, whenever he gets back, posted a 1.57/2.67/4.05 pitcher slash in his
first 46 MLB innings in 2016 and has been dominant in the minors.
Miles Mikolas wasn’t much of a starter or reliever in North America at the MLB level,
but he went over to Japan and opened some eyes. He had a 2.18 ERA with a 378/69
K/BB ratio in 424.2 innings of work overseas. He doesn’t miss a ton of bats, but as teams
look for those guys that can stay off the barrel, Mikolas comes back to the states looking
to build off of what happened in Asia. At the very least, Mikolas and Adam Wainwright
should eat up some innings while the Cardinals wait on Reyes, Jack Flaherty, and Austin
Gomber. Flaherty is a top-five prospect in the organization and Gomber has pitched well
in the minors.
The Cardinals don’t really have a bullpen hierarchy and this would be a great place to see
an elevated closer-by-committee approach in that leverage dictates who appears when.
Alas, Mike Matheny isn’t that progressive, so the Cardinals will maroon somebody in
that role. Hopefully it will be Luke Gregerson, who is the weakest of the middle relief
crop. Tyler Lyons was excellent in 50 appearances with a 2.83/2.86/3.65 after he sort of
flamed out as a starter. Dominic Leone (and prospect Conner Greene) was a hell of a
return from Toronto in the Randal Grichuk deal. Leone had a 2.56/2.94/3.68 pitcher slash
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in 70.1 innings last season. He might be the best reliever in this bullpen, so he should be
the fireman of the bullpen. Bud Norris had a good year in relief and Brett Cecil has a
track record of being useful. John Brebbia has an underrated arsenal. This is a really solid
bullpen.
Why bet the under?
As I mentioned above, there are some hitters that are in line for regression. This is a team
that won 83 games last year with some of those individual performances that were a
standard deviation or two above where they should have been. If Tommy Pham flirts with
being a six-win player again, I’ll be shocked. Pham’s 23 home runs are in line for
regression with a low fly ball rate and a low average launch angle. That’s not to say that
he will totally collapse, but bettors shouldn’t expect the same power production. He also
moves to center field, which is a more grueling position to play than a corner and Pham
has battled a lot of injuries throughout his career. He is a high-effort dude and sometimes
that gets the best of him.
Paul DeJong’s power is probably sustainable with an 18-degree average launch angle, but
that should have a very negative impact on his .349 BABIP. Fly balls are great because
they go for extra-base hits, but they also go for hits far less often than ground balls.
DeJong hit .320 on fly balls last season and .253 on ground balls. While I grant that he
makes harder contact than most, the league average for non-pitchers on ground balls was
.244 and just .252 on fly balls. In other words, DeJong got extremely lucky with his balls
in play. That will lower the batting average, which will, in turn, lower the on-base
percentage. As it is, DeJong is a guy that doesn’t walk a whole lot and will strike out at a
high clip. Not only do you want to be careful with him in fantasy drafts, but he’s another
guy to expect decline from in 2018 from a season win total standpoint.
Jedd Gyorko had a .312 BABIP, which was way in front of his career .278 mark. Kolten
Wong had a .331 BABIP and he hasn’t really shown great barrel skills throughout his
career. His minor league BABIPs were generally much lower than that and his MLB
BABIP in 1,880 plate appearances is just .290, even with last year’s dramatic outlier. Jose
Martinez had a .350 BABIP, which is hard to maintain for a guy with his speed, although
he does make a lot of legitimate contact.
Yadier Molina is now 35 years old and plays the hardest position on the field. At some
point, we have to see an offensive drop-off from him. Molina’s K% was an all-time high
last season, which, at 13.6 percent is a tremendous accomplishment, but still. The bat
skills may be eroding a little bit as he ages. Nobody would be surprised with that. The 18
home runs felt like a bit of an outlier as well, since he hit 19 over the previous three
seasons combined.
Maybe Carlos Martinez just can’t make the leap. If it’s not one thing, it’s another.
Martinez has also stayed remarkably healthy for a 6-foot flamethrower that only weighs
about a buck 90. He’s coming off of two very long seasons, with 195.1 innings in 2016
and 205 innings last year. Martinez did hit something of a wall in the second half, when
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he allowed 13 HR in 88.2 innings compared to 14 in 116.1 innings in the first half. His
K% fell by 3.4 percent. Maybe this was just the case of a mid-20s starter learning his
body, but it may also be a sign of the wear and tear of the last two seasons. If he can’t
curtail that home run issue, that next step isn’t coming this season.
Michael Wacha is held together with tongue depressors and Cardinals logo duct tape.
Dating back to his days at Texas A&M, Wacha has always battled shoulder discomfort.
That’s why he had 109 innings in 2014, 138 in 2016, and 165.2 in 2017. I’m not a huge
believer in the sustainability of the K% increase because it looks like it was a one-off
season in terms of throwing first-pitch strikes. The swinging strike rate naturally went up
by being ahead in the count more. Just about everything else for Wacha remained the
same. His HR/FB% stayed the same. His BABIP against was about the same. His walk
rate was the same. The one difference was the K% and I’m not buying it. Wacha
probably won’t have another 2016 with such an awful LOB%, but I really don’t think we
see another three-win season. I’m not even as high as the projection systems. I think
we’re down to about a 2.3-win guy like we saw in 2015. Which is fine, but, again, we’re
all about looking at players on an individual level to see drops in value in these win
totals.
Adam Wainwright might be done. He only worked 123.1 innings last season with a 5.11
ERA. His 4.29 FIP and 4.40 xFIP are certainly passable, but it’s only a matter of time
until Alex Reyes usurps him in the rotation. Maybe Reyes takes over Miles Mikolas’s
spot, who has a lot of questions to answer after faring well against guys that aren’t Major
League hitters, but Wainwright’s days are numbered. The stuff just isn’t there anymore.
He’s basically trying to outsmart and out-savvy hitters. With a juiced ball and launch
angles, it really isn’t enough anymore.
The potential of Luke Weaver is very exciting to talk about, but…. It isn’t all rainbows
and unicorns. Weaver worked 138 innings last season after working just 119.1 in 2016
and 105.1 in 2015. How many frames can we realistically expect from this kid? The
impressive strikeout rates in his cameo last season came with a very low chase rate of
25.5 percent and a low swinging strike rate. The first time around the league, he might
have some success, but that tells me that hitters can and will adjust as they see him more
often. I think Weaver has a good Major League future, but we need to have a realistic set
of expectations for this season.
I’m not sure how the bullpen roles shake out. I do know that I like this bullpen and the
depth is there to deal with an injury or two. I don’t really trust Mike Matheny to
maximize everybody’s potential out here, so I’m kind of worried that he might squander
some of the advantages that he has.
Pick: Over 85.5 (-135, Bovada)
In this instance, I’ll pay the extra juice to get a win with a win total in the mid-80s. As I
mentioned, the Cardinals were more like a team that should have won 87-89 games last
season and you cannot tell me that this team is worse than last year’s team. The Cardinals
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saw some offensive breakouts from some guys and added a middle of the order bat in
Marcell Ozuna. They’ve got some help coming on the pitching side with Alex Reyes and
Jack Flaherty and have a lot of guys with high offensive floors because they can draw a
lot of walks. Those are the types of offenses that I want to invest in.
I do like the Brewers a lot and the Cubs certainly have a lot of pieces and parts, but there
are some wins to go around with the Pirates and Reds in this division. The bullpen is
really solid with the addition of Dominic Leone and the Cardinals have good depth from
the left side in Tyler Lyons and Brett Cecil. This is a team entering the season with a
strong roster and a good chance of running down the Cubs in the NL Central.
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Arizona Diamondbacks
I was wrong about the Colorado Rockies last season, but I was right about the Arizona
Diamondbacks. The NL West wound up being a fascinating division, as the Los Angeles
Dodgers won the most games of any team in the league and managed to do it with two
teams in the division winning 87+ games. As it turned out, three of the five playoff teams
from the Senior Circuit came from the NL West. That probably won’t be the case this
season.
The Diamondbacks went 93-69, which was their best record since 2011. First-year
manager Torey Lovullo and a revamped front office with former Indians and Red Sox
exec Mike Hazen paid instant dividends for the Snakes and they should have been even
better. The Diamondbacks were a 96-66 team per Pythagorean Win-Loss and 96-66 per
BaseRuns. It probably wouldn’t have changed anything, as Arizona held serve at home in
the Wild Card Game and got swept by the Dodgers in the NLDS.
The problem with the Diamondbacks is that we can basically throw all of it out the
window. A humidor has been installed at Chase Field. This is a very significant change.
I’ll spare you the details of a lot of scientific analysis, but you can read about it at The
Hardball Times from Alan Nathan. For a cliff notes version (I know we say don’t read
the comments, but you should in that Nathan piece), I can tell you that Coors Field is the
test case and offense fell off dramatically at Coors after the humidor was installed.
Additional moisture adds extra weight to the ball, which results in lower exit velocities.
Pitchers will also have more grip, which means that they should be able to command and
locate better. Per Nathan’s findings, home runs could drop anywhere from 26 percent to
47 percent at Chase Field. This is going to have significant impact on everything from
betting totals to fantasy baseball to player contract negotiations.
As bettors, we are going to have to make significant adjustments. Chase Field has been
one of the best hitters’ parks in baseball. The Juiced Ball Era is taking us in directions
that we haven’t seen since the Steroid Era. Pitching now has the upper hand at Chase
Field, so we have to really key in on the Diamondbacks pitching staff and evaluate the
advantages and disadvantages that they will have. This could also provide additional
betting impact in that the Diamondbacks players will have 81 opportunities to adjust,
while no other team will have more than 10 during the regular season. That could lead to
a big windfall at home for the Diamondbacks.
Coors Field has always yielded a positive home field advantage for the Rockies.
Colorado won 170 games from 1998-2001 at home. The humidor was installed for the
2002 season and the Rockies won 174 games at home from 2002-05, but they had 66
more wins at home than on the road. From 1998-2001, the Rockies only had 27 more
wins at home than on the road. They won 304 games total from 1998-2001 and just 282
games from 2002-05, so it certainly looks like the humidor benefitted them more than
visiting teams, since 61.7 percent of their total wins came at home from 2002-05 and 55.9
percent at home from 1998-2001. We’ll see if a similar trend happens in Arizona.
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The installation of the humidor, plus last season’s massive 24-win improvement, means
that we have a lot to talk about with the 2018 Arizona Diamondbacks.
Season Win Total Odds:
5Dimes: 85.5 (-125/105)
BetOnline: 85.5 (-110/-110)
Bovada: 85.5 (-110/-110)
Additions: Steven Souza Jr., Alex Avila, Jarrod Dyson, Brad Boxberger, Yoshihisa
Hirano, Albert Suarez, Alberto Rosario, Cesar Puello, Ramon Flores, Jay Gonzalez,
Kris Medlen, Tyler Pill, Anthony Vasquez, Taylor Widener, Fernando Salas, Neftali
Feliz, Antonio Bastardo, Michael Blazek
Losses: Gregor Blanco, David Hernandez, Chris Iannetta, JD Martinez, Fernando
Rodney, Adam Rosales, Oswaldo Arcia, Emilio Bonifacio, JJ Hoover, Brandon
Drury, Anthony Banda
The Diamondbacks seemed to prioritize defense this winter. While Steven Souza Jr.’s
offensive contributions are nice, he was also worth seven defensive runs saved. Jarrod
Dyson can’t really hit, but he is an excellent center fielder worth 55 defensive runs saved
in over 3,600 career innings in center field. They opted not to sign JD Martinez, who is a
really poor fielder. Alex Avila isn’t a standout defensive player, but he did throw out
nearly 31 percent of baserunners last season.
The Diamondbacks also added to the bullpen with Brad Boxberger, who needed a clean
slate after some injury-filled years in Tampa Bay. While everybody was rightfully
fawning over Shohei Ohtani, Yoshihisa Hirano was an under-the-radar signing by the
Diamondbacks. Jeff Sullivan penned a profile of him at Fangraphs and it sounds fairly
optimistic.
None of the losses were overly significant. Brandon Drury had to contend with a glut of
Major League caliber talent for plate appearances and the Diamondbacks have some
good, young arms that made Anthony Banda expendable.
Why bet the over?
The timing might not be all that bad to install a humidor. The Diamondbacks pitching
staff was better than the Arizona offense last season. The offense finished eighth in
wOBA at .329, but had a 95 wRC+, as the adjustments for Chase Field outweighed the
positive production from the hitters. The Diamondbacks were fifth in pitching fWAR last
season, which was behind only the Indians, Yankees, Dodgers, Red Sox, who either have
ridiculous rotations, elite relievers, or both.
With the pitching ahead of the hitting, for all intents and purposes, the fact that Chase
Field is going to become more pitcher-friendly is a big deal. The Diamondbacks had four
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starting pitchers accumulate 3+ fWAR and Taijuan Walker had 2.5 fWAR in his 28
starts. As it is, the Diamondbacks were doing a great job of suppressing power, with 1.07
HR/9 allowed and a HR/FB% that ranked just outside the top 10. The humidor will only
help guys like Robbie Ray and Patrick Corbin, who both had HR/FB% marks over 15
percent.
Zack Greinke returned to his ace-like form last season. Greinke’s first season in Arizona
was a tough one, as his strikeout rate fell and his ERA ballooned. He wasn’t going to
sustain the remarkable numbers that he had as a Dodger, but his K% plummeted to 20.1
percent. Last season, it was back up at 26.8 percent. One of the hardest learning curves
for pitchers going to Arizona is that pitch grips are much harder to maintain and control.
The drier air makes it hard to get a feel for pitches and that seemed to be a big issue for
Greinke. Because he couldn’t command as well, the K% went down and the home runs
went way up. Greinke was also hurt. He allowed 23 HR in 158.2 innings of work in 2016.
Last season, Greinke’s HR/FB% didn’t drop a ton, but he also induced more ground balls
and his HR/9 went down by a fair amount. He commanded the bottom of the zone better
and it showed. He also had a lower walk rate and the highest swinging strike rate of his
career, despite a decline in velocity. The humidor can only help a guy like Greinke and
I’d expect him at least sustain last year’s improvements and probably take another step
forward.
The biggest benefactor from the humidor will be Robbie Ray. Ray would best be
described as “effectively wild”. Ray isn’t particularly efficient, but he’s had 218
strikeouts each of the last two seasons and matched his 2016 total in 12.1 fewer innings
last year. Home runs and walks have been a problem for the southpaw, but the humidor
should be a huge help to him in the dinger department. Aside from the long balls, Ray
held opposing batters to a .197 batting average and a .267 BABIP against, so he was
literally hit or miss. After back-to-back years with an HR/FB% above 15 percent, I’m
guessing that the humidor factor allows Ray to drop down into the 13.5 or 14 percent
range, which should shave off a few runs.
Another big boost for Ray is that the heavier baseball won’t come off the bat as hard.
Ray’s .197 batting average against and .267 BABIP were very fortunate numbers. He had
the eighth-highest average exit velocity against in baseball last season. He missed barrels,
but endured a lot of hard contact. Per the studies, the average exit velocity is expected to
drop by about four miles per hour with the humidor. Less hard contact, fewer home runs,
better grip. Robbie Ray is a guy you probably want high on your draft boards this season.
Ray has been a three-win pitcher each of the last two seasons and I’m thinking we see
even better fortunes this year.
Zack Godley was brilliant last season. After 74.2 ugly innings in 2016 at the MLB level,
Godley figured it out and posted a 3.37 ERA with a 3.41 FIP and a 3.32 xFIP in his 155
innings last season. Godley was a 3.5-win pitcher for the Diamondbacks with more than a
strikeout per inning and a 55.3 percent ground ball rate. Godley, unlike Ray, was in the
middle of the pack in exit velocity. Godley’s heavy reliance on the cutter and the curve,
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which are the two most effective pitches in baseball right now, separated him from the
pack. Godley used those two pitches over 68 percent of the time and that arsenal worked
wonders for him. My guess is that it won’t stop with more pitcher-friendly conditions.
Patrick Corbin had one problem last season – the long ball. Corbin had a HR/FB% of
15.3 percent as a guy who induced ground balls more than 50 percent of the time. Corbin
had solid K/BB rates and a quality 4.03 ERA with a 4.08 FIP and a 3.89 xFIP. The big
difference for Corbin from 2016 to 2017 is that his LOB% regressed positively. He had a
64.8 percent LOB% in 155.2 innings in 2016 and had a 5.15 ERA as a result. It was 9.5
percent higher last season, plus the better K%, so he had the 4.03 ERA. I’m not entirely
sure that the strikeout gains are sustainable, but Corbin is still an average starter on the
low end and more than that on the high end.
Similarly, Taijuan Walker is the same way. Walker had some issues adjusting to the
different conditions of Chase Field and the better offensive environment, but still posted a
3.49 ERA. He was a bit fortunate with a 4.04 FIP and a 4.34 xFIP, but still. Here’s
another Arizona pitcher who is an above average starter in all likelihood.
The bullpen is a little bit high-variance, but the primary guys look strong. With a defined
role, Archie Bradley lit it up last year with a 1.73 ERA, a 2.61 FIP, and a 3.21 xFIP in 73
innings. His ERA was much higher than his advanced metrics in 2016, so we were
expecting some better results, but what he did in a relief capacity was very impressive.
He’ll get the keys to the closer’s role at the outset. Being a reliever eliminates the need
for a third pitch, so Bradley used a fastball/curveball arsenal and mostly eliminated his
changeup. He spiked in velocity, as you would expect, and had one of the best reliever
fastballs in baseball.
Brad Boxberger was limited to 30 appearances last season, but they were good ones, as
he posted a 3.38 ERA with a 3.43 FIP and a 3.36 xFIP. He had good strikeout strikeouts
and home runs were the only real issue, with four of those in 29.1 innings. He was a little
bit erratic with 11 walks, but Boxberger should be a fine setup man. Yoshihisa Hirano is
a guy that I talked about above and should have a lot of success with the traditional
deception that Asian imports bring to the big leagues. At least his first few times around
the league, he should have great success and has a splitter, much like many of the great
Japanese hurlers to come stateside like Masahiro Tanaka and Hideo Nomo. Jorge de la
Rosa is a decent matchup lefty and Randall Delgado showed flashes, though he was
limited to 26 games.
The offense is a big question mark, not because the Diamondbacks lack talent, but
because everybody’s offense will be a question mark at Chase Field. We’ll have to see
how the numbers fall off for Paul Goldschmidt, but as a first baseman capable of 20
steals with a 14.1 percent BB%, the floor is still very high. Goldy may not repeat his 36
dingers or his .563 SLG in the new environment, but he’s going to walk and he’s going to
make a lot of quality contact. It was a nice bounce back effort power-wise from his 2016
campaign, in which he was still a 4.7-win player with a .382 wOBA. While I’d expect
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some power drop-off, he’s still going to walk a ton and get on base a ton and be a very
strong four-win player on the low end.
It would be so nice to see AJ Pollock healthy. Pollock had a 6.5-win season in 2015 with
20 HR, 39 steals, and a .371 wOBA. Not to mention, he played excellent defense. Pollock
was limited to 466 plate appearances last season, but got back on track a bit offensively
with a .340 wOBA. If he can manage to stay healthy, projection systems have him from
three wins to 3.6 wins above replacement player. Either way, whatever Pollock gives will
be league average or better.
I do want to be clear about something, as we look at Jake Lamb. Lamb has 59 dingers
over the last two seasons. He’s a launch angle disciple and it has served him to kneel at
the altar of the baseball gods in charge of such things. He is a guy that could be impacted
greatly by Chase Field, but let’s also think about this. The research from Nathan averaged
out to about a 36 percent drop in home runs, right? Lamb hit 16 at home and 14 on the
road. If we cut hit home run rate down at Chase, he’d hit 10-11 at home and we’ll say 14-
15 on the road. That’s still a 25-homer season. We have to keep in mind that a 30-35
percent regression, or thereabouts, is significant, but it’s not going to ruin players.
Steven Souza Jr. is a past 30-homer guy, so he’ll also likely see some regression, but he’s
a quality defender and a significant upgrade to somebody like Yasmany Tomas. He’ll
also be a good outfield complement with somebody like David Peralta, who bashes right-
handed pitching. The Diamondbacks have a lot of average to above average types of
players and then some guys in part-time roles, like a Jarrod Dyson, whose speed and
defensive ability would play up in the NL.
Why bet the under?
Realistically speaking, it is hard to bet into the unknown. We have studies. We have
theories. We have expectations. We don’t have hard data on what will happen at Chase
Field with a humidor. We do know that the Diamondbacks pitching staff was better than
the offense last season, which is a plus. What we don’t know is how far the offense will
fall off. We also don’t know if the pitching staff will remain at such a high level.
This humidor business is really going to affect guys like Paul Goldschmidt. Goldy had 73
extra-base hits last season, 58 in 2016, and 73 in 2015. He walks a ton, though his walk
rate did regress a bit to 14.1 percent last season, which was a 1.5 percent drop from 2016
and a 2.9 percent drop over the last three seasons. His K% ticked up a little bit as well.
While these little deviations may just be coincidence, the total package of walking less,
striking out more, and then hitting for less power would take away some of his offensive
value.
That’s not to say that Goldschmidt will crater. As I mentioned above, with an easy
double-digit walk rate and a lot of quality contact, he’s still a high-floor player. However,
we’re talking about a team with much bigger expectations this season than last season
and a higher season win total.
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For all the promise and potential of AJ Pollock, he hasn’t been able to stay healthy. Years
of leg injuries and various other ailments have taken their toll. His abbreviated 2014
season was impressive and his full 2015 season was phenomenal, but he missed basically
all of 2016 and missed time again in 2017. He is a guy whose offensive value is derived
by his legs and begins able to hit for modest power. The legs have declined and the power
is assuredly going to in the humidor era. His defense did drop a bit last season relative to
2013-15, so we’re talking about a player that isn’t going to meet the projections and may
not even come that close. It’s a shame, because Pollock had potential to be an electric
player, but I think average is the best we can hope for at this point.
Jake Lamb produced value by walking and hitting dingers. With opposing pitchers
having a better grip on the baseball and the humidor cutting down on quality contact,
Lamb is a guy whose value legitimately could crater. He’s also a very bad defender, with
-21 defensive runs saved and -18 UZR over the last two seasons at third base. If he isn’t
hitting for power, he doesn’t have a whole lot of value for this team. I don’t think he’s
going to have nearly as much value for this team.
JD Martinez hit 29 HR in just 257 plate appearances, which is obscene, but he and Chris
Iannetta tied for third in position player fWAR. Both are gone. David Peralta is a good
hitter on the fat side of the platoon, but a marginal outfielder at best and doesn’t have a
ton of power or speed. Brandon Drury was a decent player, but he’s also gone. Light-
hitting Ketel Marte and light-hitting Chris Owings will see a lot of playing time.
This Diamondbacks offense could be very bad. The Diamondbacks were eighth in
wOBA, but JD Martinez had a lot to do with that thanks to his .446 mark in 62 games and
Paul Goldschmidt was one of nine hitters with a .400 wOBA last season. His offensive
numbers are going to regress. Martinez is gone. Steven Souza Jr. will see a regression in
his offensive profile with the humidor in play as well.
Also, another byproduct of this, which I did mention with regards to Jake Lamb, is that
opposing pitchers are going to also get better. It may be beneficial for Arizona to have the
humidor with a starting staff that is so dynamite, but road pitchers are going to be better.
Last season, Chase Field was the second-highest ballpark in road wOBA for pitchers.
Coors Field was obviously the top one, but Chase Field was second by a large margin
over Nationals Park, which was third.
Used batted ball data, Chase Field should have yielded a .331 wOBA. Instead, it yielded
a .362 wOBA for visiting pitchers. The humidor is the great equalizer. Arizona pitchers,
who had a competitive advantage by being used to the adverse conditions of pitching at
Chase Field, no longer have that benefit. It hurts the offense a lot. Road pitchers will be
able to have more grip. They will be able to pitch differently and more effectively.
How many games can Arizona win 3-2 or 4-2? That brings us to the bullpen, which is
top-heavy with Archie Bradley, but I’m not in love with it otherwise. Brad Boxberger has
been a useful asset when healthy, but he worked 29.1 innings last season and 24.1 innings
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in 2016. Yoshihisa Hirano is 33 and has seen sharply-declining strikeout rates in Japan.
As I mentioned above, his deception and his splitter, a pitch most MLBers don’t throw,
could help the first time around the league, but who knows how long that holds up for
him. Hirano will be a focal point of this bullpen, with mediocre relievers like Jorge de la
Rosa, Randall Delgado, and Rule 5 pick Albert Suarez. Perhaps Braden Shipley
transitions to a bullpen role, but he hasn’t had much MLB success.
The Diamondbacks were remarkably healthy on the pitching side in 2017. Five starters
made at least 25 starts. That was not the case for most of the teams around baseball last
season. Arizona only needed 45 players last season, which was the fourth-fewest in the
league. Only Miami, Cleveland, and Colorado needed fewer players. As far as pitchers
go, the Diamondbacks only used 23 different pitchers, which was also the fourth-fewest
in baseball behind the Giants, Rockies, and Indians. More often than not, luck on the
health side of things is what allows a team to have a year like Arizona had. That isn’t
meant to detract from what the starters did last season, but it certainly helps to be healthy.
Speaking of starters and health, Patrick Corbin worked 189.2 innings last season, which
was his highest total since 2013 when he worked his only 200-inning season. Taijuan
Walker did battle injuries, but still made 28 starts, the second-most of his career at any
level. We saw a guy like Zack Godley have big league success for the first time, which is
always a tough thing to maintain.
I don’t have a lot of concerns from a performance standpoint because the humidor should
be a big help for this rotation and will go a long way in terms of sustaining the gains from
last year. That being said, Robbie Ray had a 2.89 ERA with a 3.72 FIP. Taijuan Walker
had a 3.49 ERA with a 4.04 FIP. There are some signs of individual regression with those
stats.
Pick: Over 85.5 (-110, BetOnline and Bovada)
This is one of my stronger NL win total picks. The Diamondbacks are getting the
humidor at the right time. With juiced balls and exploding offense, the Diamondbacks
were a team carries by its starting rotation last season. The humidor should do great
things for Robbie Ray, Patrick Corbin, and Taijuan Walker. The offense will have the
luxury of making adjustments with 81 games at home. That is a luxury not afforded to
visiting teams, whose pitchers will likely be better, but those offenses are going to
struggle.
The Diamondbacks have focused on improving their defense this season in anticipation
of the humidor and defense is often overlooked in the context of baseball betting.
Arizona’s offense is not great, but the new conditions at Chase Field will level the
playing field a bit in that regard, which allows the team’s superior pitching to shine,
while the offense is able to compete and cancel out.
I’m buying this team and I would not be surprised if they make the Wild Card Game
again.
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Colorado Rockies
The Colorado Rockies became one of the best stories of the 2017 season, but things got
pretty dicey at the end. After jumping out to an outstanding 47-26 start through 73 games,
the Rockies went just 40-49 the rest of the way. They managed to hold on to a spot in the
Wild Card Game and lost to Arizona, but it was the first playoff appearance for the
Rockies since 2009 and the first time that the team had a winning record since 2010.
It will certainly be interesting to see how Colorado follows up that postseason
appearance. As mentioned, it was basically a tale of two seasons and the Rockies were
very lucky to end up on the right side of the ledger because they started so hot. Colorado
was a team that drew a lot of preseason interest from a season win total standpoint. I did
not buy in, but I didn’t actively fade the team either. I did bet against Colorado a fair
amount last season as they got off to a blistering start, which hurt me early in the year.
First-year skipper Bud Black certainly got a lot out of his team. The Rockies were 87-75
and had an identical record by Pythagorean Win-Loss. The Rockies were, however, a
five-game overachiever in the BaseRuns category, as they played more like a +15 run
differential team than a +67 team, but Coors Field does weird things with just about
every metric available, so it’s hard to really rely heavily on that.
The Rockies were first in batting average, fourth in on-base percentage, fifth in on-base
plus slugging percentage (OPS)…and 21st in home runs. Across the board, their pitching
stats weren’t great, but you can expect that with Coors Field as a home ballpark. The
Rockies were eighth in pitcher fWAR, so when you take pity on those poor guys for
pitching in the thin air for 81 games, they were actually pretty good.
What does all of this mean going into 2018? Well, people don’t seem nearly as high on
the Rockies this year. It seems like the sentiments are more negative than positive, as last
year’s team blew past a .500 win total line and made the playoffs, but this year’s team has
slightly higher expectations and a lot less buzz.
I’ve talked about it before, mostly in a college football context, but sustaining success is
the hardest thing to do in sports. A one-off season can happen to anybody if everything
goes perfectly according to plan. Repeating that feat in the face of adversity or living up
to new expectations is an entirely different challenge and one that the Rockies face this
season.
Season Win Total Odds:
5Dimes: 81.5 (-125/105)
BetOnline: 81.5 (-110/-110)
Bovada: 82 (-130/100)
Additions: Chris Iannetta, Wade Davis, Bryan Shaw, Shawn O’Malley, Brooks
Pounders, Keith Hessler, Scott McGough, Mitch Horacek
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Losses: Tyler Chatwood, Carlos Gonzalez, Ryan Hanigan, Jonathan Lucroy, Pat
Neshek, Mark Reynolds, Greg Holland, Alexi Amarista, Stephen Cardullo
I’m not a genius and I didn’t stay at a Holiday Inn Express last night, but the lower
perception of the Rockies probably has something to do with the very pedestrian and
bland offseason. The Rockies will go with youngster Ryan McMahon at first base instead
of adding one of several 30+ homer first basemen on the market. They also could’ve had
JD Martinez, but opted against it.
Instead, Wade Davis replaces Greg Holland at a significant cost and Bryan Shaw replaces
Pat Neshek. The Rockies certainly aren’t wrong in prioritizing the bullpen in the free
agent market, but they really could have used some offensive pieces. They did not get
them and go into the season with basically the same team as last year.
Why bet the over?
Normally, I’d start with the offense in something like Coors Field, but everybody hits at
Coors Field, so we’ll save that. The Rockies were very fortunate on health front last year,
as they used only eight starting pitchers and seven of them made at least 15 starts. Of
those starters, Jon Gray, the most talented in the rotation, certainly stood out. Gray was
limited to just 20 starts, but he was outstanding with a 3.67 ERA, a 3.18 FIP, and a 3.45
xFIP. Among pitchers with at least 110 innings pitched for the Rockies since 2000,
Gray’s 3.18 FIP was the second-lowest. Only prime Ubaldo Jimenez in 2010 fared better.
From an xFIP standpoint, and with my search going back to 2000, so it leaves out the
heyday of the Steroid Era, Gray’s 3.45 xFIP was the lowest among the 76 qualified
seasons since xFIP was tracked by Fangraphs beginning in 2002.
Basically, what I’m saying here is that Jon Gray could very well be the best starting
pitcher for the Rockies since 2000 and maaaaaaybe in the team’s history. After all,
Gray’s 2016 season had the fourth-lowest xFIP and the eighth-ranked FIP since 2000.
Only Jhoulys Chacin, Ubaldo Jimenez, and 2016 Tyler Anderson have posted better FIPs.
As long as Gray can stay healthy, he will be in line to strike out more than a batter per
inning and could very well amass four wins above replacement player per Fangraphs.
Gray’s developing arsenal should allow for some sustainability in his metrics.
German Marquez is a guy that I really liked last season. He had an unimpressive
4.39/4.40/4.18 pitcher slash, but he actually pitched pretty well at Coors Field in his first
full season in the bigs. You’ve certainly heard about the “Coors Effect” for hitters, in that
they see different pitches and different spin rates on the road that further enhance their
home/road splits. Pitchers can fall victim to that as well. To me, I think it is a great
building block that Marquez fared as well as he did at home. His K% and BB% were both
better at Coors Field. Marquez wore down late and got battered in both August and
September, but he had a very respectable 3.98 FIP in the first half.
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Tyler Anderson was fantastic for 19 starts in 2016, but started 2017 hurt. He was limited
to 86 innings and posted a 4.81 ERA with a 4.67 FIP and a 3.95 xFIP. Anderson never
got in a rhythm last season. He was nicked up in Spring Training and then worked from
April 4 to May 30 before his first DL stint. He came back and made two appearances in
relief and then was out from June 25 to September 11. Anderson posted an 18/3 K/BB
ratio and allowed just three runs on 13 hits in his last 22.2 innings. If he’s healthy, he can
be a very valuable contributor, especially with a return to worm-burners. He had a 50.9
percent GB% in 2016 and it certainly helps at Coors to induce ground balls.
Kyle Freeland is fascinating. I was staunchly anti-Kyle Freeland early in the season. I
have an inherent bias against pitchers that don’t miss bats. Furthermore, Freeland wasn’t
one of those low-strikeout guys with a low walk rate. He had a 15.6 percent K% and a 9.2
percent BB%. On the whole, those numbers simply cannot sustain a 4.10 ERA and his
advanced metrics point to serious regression with a 4.57 FIP and a 4.70 xFIP.
Freeland, though, was right with a couple of names you may have heard of in Dallas
Keuchel and Clayton Kershaw in average exit velocity against last season. Freeland
clearly doesn’t have the raw arsenal of those two, nor does he have the swing-and-miss
capability. What Freeland does have, though, is an innate ability to induce weak contact.
That should probably some level of sustainability in the fact that he outpitched his FIP
and xFIP. He was 25th in average ground ball exit velocity, which is good because he had
a 53.9 percent GB%. Freeland is almost Zach Davies like in that the margin for error is
quite small with low K rates, but I honestly think Freeland could see some positive
regression in his walk rate. It was higher than it had ever been in the minors and he did
throw a good amount of pitches in the zone. His first-pitch strike percentage was in the
55 percent range, which should go up. I think there’s a little bit of surplus value here on a
guy that people will rush to fade on a daily basis. I think he’ll be a bit better than average
this season.
Chad Bettis should be back for a full season after undergoing treatment for testicular
cancer. Antonio Senzatela is an interesting swingman type that throws pretty hard, but
lacks arsenal depth. If he refined a third pitch over the winter, he could be an asset. Jeff
Hoffman still has some upside. Yency Almonte is coming quickly. The Rockies have
decent depth in the starting rotation.
Wade Davis isn’t really trending in a positive direction, but he missed a ton of bats last
season and still managed a 2.30 ERA with a 3.38 FIP and a 3.57 xFIP. If last year’s BB%
spike can be curtailed, he’ll be one of the league’s better closers. Bryan Shaw throws
harder than ever with his cutter/slider arsenal and is the most durable reliever in the big
leagues. Adam Ottavino still has a good slider and the Rockies will match up well with
lefty-heavy lineups with Jake McGee, Mike Dunn, and Chris Rusin in the pen.
On the offensive side of things, it is a contract year for Charlie Blackmon. Blackmon is a
launch angle disciple and he hasn’t sacrificed contact quality as his launch angle has
risen. Even with 37 home runs last season to blow away his previous career high of 29
that he set in 2016, Blackmon had a .371 BABIP. He wound up being one of nine players
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with a wOBA of .400 last season, as he slugged .601 as terrorized opposing pitching.
Blackmon is not likely to be a six-win player again like he was last season, but the power
should be sustainable and here to stay. Blackmon’s projections aren’t taking into account
the launch angle increase, so he is actually projected for anywhere from a .365 wOBA to
a .383 wOBA. Even with a decrease in BABIP, which should happen because .371 is
extremely high, Blackmon could very well repeat his 2016 wOBA of .394 or at least stay
in the .380s. The Rockies are considering moving him down in the lineup, which could
alter his walk rate with a different mindset not batting leadoff, but still. The fact is that he
will hit and hit well.
Nolan Arenado is really good. Arenado provides a lot of good offensive value, but his
defense value is also quite noticeable. He slashed .309/.373/.586 last season, which
marked the best offensive year of his career, and he was worth 20 defensive runs saved at
the hot corner with another strong UZR. Arenado has now been worth 104 defensive runs
saved in 6,159.2 innings at third. Every 10 defensive runs saved roughly equates to one
win above replacement player, so Arenado is good for two on the defensive side and at
least three more on the offensive side. These are two tremendous building blocks for the
Rockies.
After those two, we have to deviate a little bit from the metrics that I like to use. Coors
Field is so hard on players with the park-adjusted metrics. DJ LeMahieu is a throwback
type of player, in that he’s a bat-to-ball middle infielder that keeps the train moving. It
isn’t the sexiest profile because he lacks power, but he gets on base a lot. Trevor Story
doesn’t, but he has good power and hits the ball extremely hard when he does hit it. Story
hit 24 HR in 555 PA with a .332 PA, but he doesn’t walk enough to offset the 34.4
percent K%, so the advanced metrics look unfavorably on his performance. Gerardo
Parra had a solid .337 wOBA last season.
Ryan McMahon is the reason why the Rockies didn’t get one of the many first base
options available for cheap prices on the free agent market. McMahon, the Rockies third-
best prospect per Baseball Prospectus, second per Baseball America, and a top-100 guy
for both, slashed .374/.411/.612 in Triple last season and .326/.390/.536 in Double-A. He
put up those numbers in Albuquerque, which is a decent ballpark, and Hartford, which
certainly isn’t the greatest of offensive yards. McMahon is a guy with high hopes and a
high ceiling.
One final player to watch is Brendan Rogers. Rogers is slated for a call-up at some point
this season and he is a top-15 prospect for both Baseball Prospectus and MLB Pipeline.
Rogers is a good defender and a great hitter and he could really inject some much-needed
life into this lineup.
Why bet the under?
I like this rotation for what it is, but keep in mind that this is still Coors Field. That means
that the offense will need to perform and I just don’t see it. Charlie Blackmon has had
two phenomenal seasons in a row, but I really don’t expect that .371 BABIP to stick
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around. The power will, but I’m also afraid that being in a run-producing spot instead of a
table-setting spot will force a decline in the walk rate. After all, Blackmon only walked
6.7 percent of the time in 2016. If the strikeout increase stays and the walk rate dips back
down again, we’ll start cutting into the offensive value of one of the two above average
pieces the Rockies actually have. Blackmon is also a free agent, which means that the
Rockies could look to move him to a contender in July if they are out of the hunt.
Because Blackmon is a competent defender, teams may not be as scared off by the Coors-
inflated numbers and will give him a look.
Nolan Arenado is spectacular, but last year was the best offensive season that he has had
per batting average, OBP, SLG, OPS, wOBA, and wRC+. Is that the new standard for
Arenado or are we going to see a regression back to 2015 or 2016? Both of those
offensive performances were terrific, but, once again, the Rockies are not bursting with
offensive potential. Drop-offs from Blackmon and Arenado from career year to career
average mean a lot more to a team like this than they would to a lot other teams that are
out there.
Betting on Ryan McMahon is iffy. McMahon doesn’t hit fly balls. He hit a lot of line
drives, which can still play well in Colorado, but he won’t help the power outage. It is
unfathomable to me that a team that plays in the thin air could be bottom-third in home
runs, but that was the case. Perhaps that means something to Arizona fans with the
humidor being installed at Chase Field. It feels like the Rockies could have made some
notable improvements to the offense this offseason, but did not. They opted to go young
with McMahon and hope and pray with outfielders like David Dahl and Raimel Tapia.
Trevor Story’s windmill-like plate discipline counteracts any upside he provides with his
power. DJ LeMahieu is great for what he is, so there isn’t much worry there, but Ian
Desmond was horrible with the bat and Gerard Parra is coming off of hand surgery for an
operation that he had in early February. It’s hard to buy too many pieces about this
offense. Even when Brendan Rogers arrives, this is a pretty uninspiring group outside of
the two huge producers. Oh, and if Blackmon or Arenado get hurt? Oh boy.
I’m selling this bullpen. Wade Davis had good numbers last season, but there were a lot
of scary developments as well. Davis’s K% spiked, but his walk rate also shot through
the roof at 11.6 percent. His velocity has also been trending down each of the last two
seasons. His Zone% fell to a career-low at 43.4 percent. He is a guy at 49.5 percent over
the course of his career. He got very lucky the last two seasons that hitters have expanded
the zone more. When I see a velo drop and a big Zone% drop, my mind immediately goes
to an injury. I don’t think he’s going to be all that durable long-term with this contract
that the Rockies gave him and I think some of those concerning developments continue
this season.
I like Bryan Shaw and he was certainly an underappreciated component of Cleveland’s
bullpen. However, Shaw is a guy that is now on the wrong side of 30 with 70, 80, 74, 75,
and 79 appearances over the last five seasons. We really haven’t seen too many guys with
workloads like this, but I think back to guys like Tyler Clippard, who are now a shell of
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what they used to be. Shaw saw a strikeout reduction last season. He saw a BABIP
increase, despite a very good defensive infield in Cleveland. The margin for error should
also be smaller in Coors Field. He’s a guy that I’m expecting regression from. His cutter
moves a ton and it is a hard pitch to get around on and barrel, but I’m very worried about
the abuse on that arm. When you factor in a past Tommy John guy with a long injury
history like Adam Ottavino, who was awful last season, and some of the other mediocre
components of this bullpen, depth is an issue.
As much as I love Jon Gray, buying in really isn’t easy. Gray worked 123.2 innings
across three levels last season. He worked a very respectable 176.2 innings in 2016. He
worked 155 in 2015. Pitching depth has gotten to a point where a pitcher giving 20-25
starts is plenty good enough, but it would still be nice to see Gray take it to the next level
and have one of those 180-inning seasons at the MLB level. This rotation needs it, in all
honesty. Tyler Anderson missed a lot of time last year. German Marquez and Kyle
Freeland will have to bob and weave to get through hitters for the second season as Major
Leaguers. Chad Bettis isn’t really all that great and 147.2 innings from Tyler Chatwood
need to be replaced. Jeff Hoffman still can’t figure it out.
There really are no sure bets with this pitching staff outside of Gray. For however many
innings he can pitch, he’ll be a weapon, but who knows how many that will be. It’s a
wonder to me that the Rockies were able to win 87 games last season. Their best starter
only worked 110.1 innings. Their two best hitters are the only two above average hitters
on the team. A lot of relievers pitched well, so that was good to see, but with two strong
teams in the division, the Rockies felt like an overachiever to me. The end result, with the
team nine games under .500 over more than half of the season, sort of speaks to that
point.
Finally, the Rockies only needed 21 pitchers and 41 players overall. They were one of the
absolute healthiest teams in baseball last season. As I’ve discussed here, this is not a team
blessed with a lot of depth.
Pick: Over 81.5 (-110, BetOnline)
But not by much. In fact, maybe not at all. This is not a bet I will be making for 2018. I
legitimately don’t know what to expect from the Rockies. I feel like the pitching staff is
very suspect, especially in the bullpen. The bullpen was exceptional early in the year and
was a major catalyst behind the team’s red-hot start. I don’t know if we get that this year.
I don’t want to believe too much in Wade Davis and I don’t know what the altitude and
thin air will do to Bryan Shaw.
Looming large in my decision is that a Rockies team not in the hunt needs to move
Charlie Blackmon. As one of two above average bats in the lineup, that would be a
monumental loss, depending on what comes back in return. I feel like this is a team that
overachieved badly last season. I kept betting on regression over the first two months and
it never came, but then it did and this was a team that was nine games under .500 over a
prolonged sample size. I want to take the under, but Coors Field is such a huge home
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field advantage that the Rockies may not need to do a ton on the road to get over the
hump.
Honestly, this looks like a .500 team to me, which is right where the win total is. I’ll give
Colorado the benefit of the doubt with the big home field advantage and a pitching
rotation that I do sort of like, but this is not a confident pick at all.
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Los Angeles Dodgers
The Houston Astros won the World Series. The New York Yankees acquired Giancarlo
Stanton. The Chicago Cubs signed Yu Darvish. The Boston Red Sox signed JD Martinez.
The best team for 162 games in the regular season last year hasn’t made any significant
moves and it seems like the baseball world has forgotten about them.
That team is the Los Angeles Dodgers, who took the aforementioned Astros seven games
in quite possibly the craziest World Series we’ve ever seen. The Dodgers won 104 games
last season and made short work of both the Arizona Diamondbacks and the Chicago
Cubs in the playoffs before running into the Houston buzzsaw. Last year marked the first
time that the Dodgers won triple digits since 1974, when the Dodgers also lost the World
Series.
This team has been built with one goal in mind. No expense has been spared. And, yet,
last year marked the team’s first World Series appearance since winning in 1988. The
Dodgers have won at least 91 games each of the last five seasons and have not had a
losing record since 2012. They haven’t been more than one game under .500 since 2005.
And nobody is talking about them right now. We certainly have short memories, don’t
we?
The Dodgers were pretty much every bit as good as advertised. They had a 102-60
Pythagorean Win-Loss record, which was second behind the Indians last season. The
Dodgers didn’t have any enormous outliers. They were 25-19 in one-run games, which
makes sense with a deep bullpen and Kenley Jansen. The Dodgers were 57-24 at home,
which is a bit unnatural, but not overly surprising with this team. By BaseRuns, the
Dodgers were a 101-61 team, but with an identical +190 run differential, with .11 more
runs scored per game and .11 runs allowed per game.
The core remains in tact, but the Dodgers haven’t made any big splashes in the market, so
nobody has been splashing any online ink about this team. How much help could a 104-
win team possibly need? In a very soft free agent market, with a lot of players going for
prices well below expected, maybe the Dodgers could have done something to strengthen
their position as a top contender. But, they didn’t need to and this is still the easy front-
runner in the NL West and a legitimate World Series threat.
The Dodgers managed to win 104 games with an Arizona team that won 93 and a
Colorado team that won 87 in the same division. With those two teams likely to take a
step back, is it possible to see the ceiling if we look towards the sky for this Dodgers
team? Let’s find out.
Season Win Total Odds:
5Dimes: 96.5 (110/-130)
BetOnline: 96.5 (-105/-115)
Bovada: 96.5 (115/-145)
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Additions: Matt Kemp, Scott Alexander, Tom Koehler, Rocky Gale, Hamlet Marte,
Jake Peter, Donovan Solano, Angelo Mora, Travis Taijeron, Henry Owens, Zach
Neal, Manny Banuelos, JT Chargois, Pat Venditte, Mark Lowe, CC Lee, Andrew
Robinson, Dylan Baker, Cesar Ramos, Justin de Fratus
Losses: Yu Darvish, Curtis Granderson, Franklin Gutierrez, Brandon Morrow,
Tony Watson, Andre Ethier, Ike Davis, Steve Geltz, Justin Masterson, Jair
Jurrjens, Grant Dayton, Charlie Culberson, Adrian Gonzalez, Scott Kazmir,
Brandon McCarthy, Luis Avilan, Erick Mejia, Trevor Oaks
Well, there are a few recognizable names there. The reunion of the Dodgers and Matt
Kemp is certainly interesting, as Kemp hit last season for the Braves but continued to fall
into a black hole defensively. The addition of Scott Alexander is a move not getting
enough play and I love that acquisition for the Dodgers to fill the void left by Tony
Watson.
To replace Scott Kazmir, who missed all of last season, and Brandon McCarthy, the
Dodgers grabbed some starting depth with Henry Owens, Zach Neal, and Dylan Baker.
Trade Deadline additions Yu Darvish and Curtis Granderson were lost to free agency, but
that was to be expected. The Dodgers seem to have hit their financial threshold finally, so
they didn’t make any big money additions, save for Kemp, whose contract was balanced
out by what was traded to Atlanta.
Why bet the over?
The world’s best pitcher toes the rubber in Dodger blue. You may have heard of Clayton
Kershaw, who was limited to 27 starts last season and actually looked somewhat human
with a 2.31 ERA, a 3.07 FIP, and a 2.84 xFIP. How good is Kershaw? Well, let’s see. His
2.31 ERA was the highest he has had since 2012. His 3.07 FIP was his highest since
2010. His 2.84 xFIP was his highest since 2013. The only problem for the southpaw was
his home run rate, which more than doubled from his career mark. Kershaw’s HR/FB%
of 15.9 percent loomed large over his 7.8 percent career mark. His strikeout rate fell
below 30 percent for the first time since 2013 and his walk rate regressed back to 4.4
percent, which was closer to 2015 than 2016.
Kershaw’s fastball command wasn’t pristine for the first time in a long time. It stands to
reason that he will bounce back from one anomalous year with the long ball. Pitchers
league-wide fell victim to the juiced ball and increased launch angles, but we probably
took Kershaw for granted and assumed that he would be immune. He wasn’t. Kershaw’s
Zone-Contact percentage rose to 85.1 percent, which was actually closer to his first seven
seasons than the last two when it was 80.6 and 80.7 percent, respectively. I’m going to
assume he returns to being the unhittable force he has always been and hopefully the
nagging back problems are a thing of the past.
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Kershaw certainly isn’t the only good arm in this rotation. Rich Hill has been spectacular
when he has been able to make starts, but he has only made 45 over the last two seasons.
Hill also fell victim to a home run spike last season with a 12.5 percent HR/FB%. He had
a 3.32 ERA with a 3.72 FIP and a 3.88 xFIP in his 135.2 innings of work. Hill still
induced a lot of weak contact and upped his K% from 29.4 percent to 30.1 percent. For
however many innings he can give the Dodgers, he will be a well above average starter.
Alex Wood also a big year in 2017. Wood posted a 2.72 ERA with a 3.32 FIP and a 3.34
xFIP. His 3.4 fWAR were a career high and he was as unhittable as anybody in the first
half with a .174/.243/.233 slash against. The second half was a different story, as he
allowed 13 of his 15 HR in 71.2 innings of work, but he still posted a 3.89 ERA with a
4.19 xFIP. Those are both above average and that was the worse part of his 2017 season.
Kenta Maeda was another guy who experienced some problems with the juiced ball. He
posted a 3.48 ERA with a 3.58 FIP and a 3.70 xFIP in 2016 and then a 4.22 ERA with a
4.07 FIP and a 3.89 xFIP in 2017. I would expect all of these Dodgers pitchers to make
some adjustments to the launch angles and wouldn’t be stunned to see improvement
across the board. And even if we don’t get it, when you throw Hyun-Jin Ryu into the mix,
the Dodgers have one ace, two well above average starters, and two slightly above
average starters. There aren’t many rotations in baseball that can stake that claim.
The best reliever in baseball resides in the Dodgers bullpen. Kenley Jansen was worth 3.6
fWAR last season with a 1.32 ERA, a 1.31 FIP, and a 1.82 xFIP. Jansen was as dominant
as dominant gets with a 109/7 K/BB ratio. No, that’s not a typo. He walked seven batters
in 68.1 innings of work and struck out 109 of them. He struck out 42.3 percent of
opposing hitters. Jansen ranked 17th in fWAR out of 274 pitchers that threw at least 60
innings last season. For a reliever, that is insane. Craig Kimbrel was the only other
reliever that came close with 3.3 fWAR. Roberto Osuna was next with 3.0 fWAR.
The rest of the Dodgers bullpen is also solid, with a lot of above average relievers. Pedro
Baez is annoyingly slow, but extremely effective. Josh Fields, Tony Cingrani, and Ross
Stripling are also effective. Scott Alexander is my guy this year. Alexander worked 69
innings for the Royals last year with an obscene ground ball rate of 73.8 percent and a
2.48/3.23/3.21 pitcher slash. This is a very strong pitching staff all around.
This also happens to be a very good offense. What sets the Dodgers apart from most
teams is that they are average or above at just about every position, ranging from the
seventh man in the bullpen to the 13th man on the bench. Their depth is almost
unparalleled in baseball. They have huge producers like Clayton Kershaw, Corey Seager,
Justin Turner, Chris Taylor, Cody Bellinger, and Kenley Jansen, but also have a lot of
complementary parts that carry their own weight as well.
Corey Seager was bothered by a few ailments last season, but still had a tremendous year
with a .295/.375/.479 slash line, a .364 wOBA, and a 127 wRC+. Seager was also an
above average defender with 10 defensive runs saved at shortstop and good UZR ratings.
Seager is starting slowly in Spring Training as he returns from an elbow injury. His 2016
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was better offensively than his 2017 with a .308/.365/.512 slash line, a .372 wOBA, and a
136 wRC+. Projection systems have him falling somewhere in between the last two
years, which means another fine season for the soon-to-be 24-year-old. Seager did start to
elevate a little bit more last season, but it was a modest launch angle change of .3
degrees. Keep an eye on this early in the season because we could see him hit for a little
more power, which would complement his high walk rate nicely.
Justin Turner and Chris Taylor are just two extremely solid players. Combined, they
accumulated 10.2 fWAR last season. Turner slashed .322/.415/.530 and Taylor slashed
.288/.354/.496. Taylor has a little more speed and more positional versatility, but Turner
walked more than he struck out and hit the same number of home runs in 25 fewer plate
appearances. These are two very high-floor players. Turner was even more extreme with
the fly balls and the launch angle last season, so we may see a notable power increase this
year.
What makes the Dodgers lineup so good is that they make a ton of contact and walk a lot.
Cody Bellinger did strike out 26.6 percent of the time, but he was one of eight players
with at least 250 plate appearances for the Dodgers that walked more than 10 percent of
the time. Bellinger also hit 39 home runs to offset the strikeouts. He also played pretty
well as a 1B/OF. With Adrian Gonzalez out of the picture at first, Bellinger will play
there, which should be beneficial for his offensive profile in that he won’t be running
around the outfield.
Backup catcher Austin Barnes posted a .386 wOBA and 2.5 fWAR in just 262 plate
appearances and 102 games. He may take some more playing time from Yasmani
Grandal, who was also worth 2.5 fWAR. This is what I mean about the depth for the
Dodgers. They just roll out dudes that can play at every position and the bench is no
different, with guys like Enrique Hernandez. The bench may be a little thinner with
Chase Utley, who is a below average player these days, and Matt Kemp, who can hit but
can’t field. The Dodgers have so much versatility that Kemp can serve as a de facto pinch
hitter when the pitcher needs to be replaced in a key spot. Logan Forsythe is also in a
bounce back spot after a terrible year at the plate. Forsythe was hurt and also struggled to
hit for any power with a .327 SLG. He hit 20 dingers with a respectable .444 SLG in
2016, so he’s something of a bounce back candidate.
The Dodgers were second in defensive runs saved last season and second in UZR/150.
That creates a lot of surplus value for a team and one of the things that seems to be
overlooked in both handicapping on a single-game basis and also when it comes to
season win totals.
Why bet the under?
The Dodgers have great starters across the board, but I do find myself worried about the
depth. Julio Urias underwent shoulder surgery and could miss all of the 2018 season.
With Brandon McCarthy and Scott Kazmir gone, the Dodgers will look to Brock Stewart,
Henry Owens, and Wilmer Font to pick up the load. We could see more of Walker
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Buehler, who is the top prospect in the org and a top-20 prospect in baseball. But, the
Dodgers have a lot of question marks from a health standpoint in the rotation.
Los Angeles got 92.2 pretty good innings from Brandon McCarthy and nine good starts
from Yu Darvish. Those won’t be around this season. Stewart worked 34 poor innings.
Buehler had a limited sample size of eight appearances, but he needs a little more
seasoning time. Brandon Morrow offered up some excellent relief work. A lot of depth
truly is gone.
Clayton Kershaw is elite, but the back has been a problem. Rich Hill is 38 and always
dealing with something. Alex Wood lost a lot of velocity late last season and became
something of a punching bag in the second half with almost a 4.80 FIP. Kenta Maeda was
limited to 134.1 innings. Hyun-Jin Ryu worked 126.2 innings last season, but missed all
of 2015 and all of 2016 with shoulder injuries. He had a 3.77 ERA last season because of
an 81.4 percent LOB%. His 4.74 FIP is maybe more indicative of what we can expect
from him. The Dodgers really have some concerns here with this group. They’ve been
able to make the Brandon McCarthy and Brett Anderson types of gambles because
they’ve had a lot of money. This high-risk rotation is definitely a concern. Walker
Buehler should be great, but the rest of the MLB-ready guys are probably below average
with Julio Urias down for the count.
Just about every pitcher shows some signs of regression. Kershaw is exempt because he’s
Kershaw. Wood had a 2.72 ERA with a 3.32 FIP and a 3.34 xFIP. He did induce a fair
amount of soft contact, but he was pretty pedestrian in the second half. Pedro Baez had a
2.95 ERA with a 4.44 FIP and a 4.83 xFIP, so that’s not great. Josh Fields had a 2.84
ERA with a 4.18 FIP and a 4.11 xFIP.
The Dodgers also had a very long season and a lot of those starters, and especially the
relievers, got an extra month’s worth of work by going to Game 7 of the World Series.
While the expectation would be for the Dodgers to come back more motivated than ever
after getting so close, the reality is that these oft-injured pitchers were forced to work
much deeper into the year than ever before. With high-risk profiles anyways, we could
see some residual fatigue and wear and tear.
This bullpen took a few hits over the winter, losing Tony Watson, Luis Avilan, and
Brandon Morrow. Morrow was a rock with a 2.06 ERA, a 1.55 FIP, and a 2.94 xFIP in
his 43.2 innings. Watson and Avilan were two of the best at minimizing hard contact. If
we set a minimum of 100 batted ball events at Baseball Savant, you’ll see that Watson
was fifth in average exit velocity against and Avilan was eighth. Jansen was 10th, and we
don’t have to worry about him, but the middle relievers and the setup men for the
Dodgers have taken a step back. With the importance of bullpens growing year after year,
this does concern me quite a bit.
The offense is a lot safer than the pitching staff, as the versatility provided by a lot of
Dodgers can help the team withstand injuries. So many guys on this team can play
multiple positions and that is huge in this day and age. It certainly helps in the National
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League as well. In that respect, the Dodgers are in really good shape. It is hard to find too
many flaws with this group, because the Dodgers walk a ton.
As great of a story as Chris Taylor is, the chances of him repeating last year’s numbers
seem pretty slim. This is a guy who was a part-time player with the Mariners and
Dodgers from 2014-16 that had one home run in 318 plate appearances. All of the
sudden, he hit 21 last season. He still strikes out a lot and carried a pretty fortunate .361
BABIP. Taylor had some okay years in the minor leagues, but never posted these types of
power numbers. This isn’t to say that Taylor will crater and go to being an average
player, but when we’re talking about win totals in the 90s, a lot of little things can add up
to much bigger things.
What can we reasonably expect from Austin Barnes? Barnes was taking playing time
away from Yasmani Grandal, who posted a 102 wRC+ with a decreased walk rate. Power
was his only attribute. Can we realistically expect enough contact quality out of Barnes to
support a .289 batting average and a .408 OBP? I’d be looking for some notable offensive
regression here. The walk rate probably won’t stay as high and the .329 BABIP seems
unsustainably high with a fair amount of deep counts. The Dodgers got five combined
fWAR from their catchers last season. I would not expect the same this season and every
little bit matters when you start looking at teams like this.
Pick: Under 96.5 (-115, BetOnline)
This is a lot to ask of the Dodgers. The World Series hangover is a very real thing. Teams
fall into a lull during the doldrums of the regular season after playing those high-octane
playoff games. Pitchers and position players have one less month of R&R before
preparing for the season. Pitchers and position players hit new workload thresholds. It
isn’t a coincidence that a lot of teams do struggle out of the gate after a deep postseason
run.
I expect the Dodgers to do that, but I also expect the Dodgers to take a few steps back.
Depth is a major worry for this team. I don’t feel like the starting rotation has as many
quality options as it has had in recent seasons. There are a few offensive performances
that I am skeptical about.
Don’t get me wrong, this is a very good team, but winning 97 games is a real challenge
with some of the adversity to overcome early in the season. I’d have to look under here.
There probably isn’t any reason to jump on this one quickly, as I can’t see it moving
down rapidly, with the public perception of the Dodgers and the PECOTA projection
right around the number.
Under is the only way for me to go here. If a team beats me at 97-65 or better, I simply
tip my cap to them.
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San Diego Padres
The San Diego Padres have really fallen on hard times. In the mid-2000s, the Padres had
a four-year run from 2004-07 in which they won 87, 82, 88, and 89 games. Since then,
the Padres have had one winning season and it came all the way back in 2010. San Diego
has lost at least 85 games in each of the last seven seasons and this looks like it will be
another losing campaign.
It is hard to get excited about the upcoming season. After all, this is a Padres team that
went 71-91 and played more like a 59-103 team per Pythagorean Win-Loss. The Padres
were outscored by 212 runs last season and scored the fewest runs in baseball with 604.
The 29th-ranked team in runs scored managed 639, so this was a tremendously bad
offense. Petco Park is undoubtedly a factor, but the Padres scored the number of runs at
home as they did on the road. The difference is that they gave up 134 more runs on the
road en route to a 28-53 record away from home. The Padres were beaten by five or more
runs 36 times last season and only had nine wins of that variety. With those blowouts
skewing the run differential, a 66-96 BaseRuns record is a bit more telling.
The signing of Eric Hosmer should upgrade the team’s offense, but he has been a
polarizing figure the last couple of years in the launch angle generation. Per most sources,
the Padres have one of the best farm systems in all of baseball. Unfortunately, a lot of
those kids are high-upside youngsters in Double-A and Single-A. Also, per Baseball
Prospectus, seven of the top 10 are pitchers. So, this will be a season of organizational
development for the Friars and those types of seasons don’t typically yield much in the
form of wins and losses.
Second-year manager Andy Green certainly has his work cut out for him and the Padres
will be staring down the barrel at a last-place season. The San Francisco Giants made a
lot of moves and should have a full season of Madison Bumgarner. The Los Angeles
Dodgers won 104 games last season and the Arizona Diamondbacks and Colorado
Rockies played in the NL Wild Card Game.
Armed with the knowledge that the Padres play in the NL West with four teams all
capable of making the playoffs in some capacity, you can see why expectations would be
extremely low. Are they too low? Let’s find out.
Season Win Total Odds:
5Dimes: 71.5 (-110/-110)
BetOnline: 70.5 (-110/-110)
Bovada: 69.5 (-175/145)
Additions: Eric Hosmer, Chase Headley, Freddy Galvis, AJ Ellis, Tyson Ross,
Bryan Mitchell, Kazuhisa Makita, Raffy Lopez, Allen Craig, Deion Tansel, Edward
Olivares, Shane Peterson, Forrest Allday, Chris Young, Colten Brewer, Rowan
Wick, Tom Wilhelmsen, Jonathan Aro, Michael Mariot, Robert Stock
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Losses: Dusty Coleman, Kevin Quackenbush, Chase d’Arnaud, Jose Valdez, Jarred
Cosart, Christian Friedrich, Erick Aybar, Jhoulys Chacin, Jordan Lyles, Christian
Bethancourt, Nick Buss, Tony Cruz, Jake Esch, Erik Johnson, Matt Magill, Andre
Rienzo, Cesar Vargas, Jabari Blash, Ryan Schimpf, Enyel De Los Santos, Travis
Wood, Jose Ruiz, Yangervis Solarte
The Padres made a pretty big splash signing Eric Hosmer to man first base, but that
wasn’t the only transaction. San Diego traded away Jabari Blash and Yangervis Solarte in
hopes of adding some more futures that can help as the team positions itself to compete in
a couple of years. The reunion with Chase Headley will plug the hole left by Solarte’s
departure and Freddy Galvis replaces Ryan Schimpf.
San Diego will roll the dice on veterans Tyson Ross, who started his MLB career with the
Friars, and Chris Young, who did the same and now returns after working out at the
Driveline Baseball facility in hopes of adding some life to the back end of his career.
Jhoulys Chacin is the biggest loss, but there generally aren’t big losses with a team that
posted a 71-91 record and a Pythagorean Win-Loss as bad as San Diego’s. A lot of pieces
and parts have gone in and gone out and it’s hard to say that the Padres actually improved
a whole lot, despite the names that they have added.
Why bet the over?
It would be disingenuous to say that the Padres are devoid of talent. They just don’t have
a whole lot of it. There are some intriguing young players that are worth taking a deeper
look at, beginning with now right fielder Wil Myers. Myers quietly posted a 30/20 season
with 30 HR and 20 SB. Overall, his offensive performance suffered from a 27.7 percent
strikeout rate, but he was one of two players with 30 dongs and 20 bags. The other was
some guy named Mike Trout.
Myers is something of a defensive liability in the outfield, but he amassed -7 defensive
runs saved in center field, a position he should not play this year. He was solid at first
base, but he’ll move to right field full-time with the Eric Hosmer signing. Myers walked
almost 11 percent of the time and has 58 home runs and 48 stolen bases over the last two
seasons. If he can regress his strikeout rate back to the 23.7 percent we saw in 2016, he’ll
put more balls in play, which means getting on base more often, which means a more
valuable season. He swung and missed a lot more in the zone last season, so maybe that
was a one-year blip.
Jose Pirela has taken a long and circuitous route to the big leagues, but he’s here now and
here to stay. Pirela had 344 plate appearances at the MLB level and led the Padres in
position player fWAR with 2.1. He hit 10 home runs and made enough quality contact to
post a .343 BABIP that led to a .288 average with a .347 OBP. Pirela hit 23 home runs
across two levels and 545 plate appearances last year, which was a big stunner for most
in the industry. He missed most of 2015 and 2016 with injuries, so a healthy Pirela would
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be a welcomed sight for the Padres. Pirela appears destined for left field, but he can also
play second base. He was a little better than average in left last year.
Manuel Margot has a very interesting skill set. The 23-year-old flashed plus speed and
good bat-to-ball skills in the minor leagues before getting his first long-term look at the
MLB level. He had some problems making contact, which led to a .309 wOBA, but he
did hit 13 homers and stole 17 bases. If nothing else, Margot proved to be a plus center
fielder with eight defensive runs saved and a positive UZR.
Hunter Renfroe still has untapped potential. One of the best college bats in the 2013
Draft, Renfroe hit 26 HR last season at the MLB level in 479 plate appearances.
Unfortunately, he doesn’t walk and he struck out a ton, so Renfroe only managed a .284
OBP. But, the power is certainly noticeable, with 64 home runs over the last two seasons
between the big leagues and Triple-A.
Cory Spangenberg is a pretty useful utility player. With the additions of Freddy Galvis,
who also has power and a low-OBP profile like some of his teammates, and Chase
Headley, Spangenberg may float all over the diamond. He hit 13 homers and stole 11
bases while playing okay defense at multiple positions. Like most in this Padres lineup,
he has that low-OBP, decent power thing going for him.
Now for the newcomers. Eric Hosmer is a polarizing player. The old-school fan
appreciates the counting stats and the traditional metrics. The new-school fan wonders
why Hosmer got 8/144 and Lucas Duda got 1/5 or Logan Morrison got 1/6.5. As
somebody on the new-school side, I totally agree, but Hosmer is coming off of a career
year with a .318/.385/.498 slash, a .376 wOBA, and a 135 wRC+. He’s hit 25 homers
each of the last two seasons and will be one of the few guys in this Padres lineup that is
capable of drawing walks. He certainly can’t hurt this lineup, which is filled with guys
that have below average wRC+ marks.
Freddy Galvis hit 20 HR in 2016, but fell back to 12 HR last season. The Padres have a
lot of these guys that don’t walk, but are capable of 15 HR and 15 SB types of seasons.
There has to be some value in that power/speed combination. Chase Headley finally
posted a season on the right side of league average per wRC+ with a .352 OBP and a
SLG over .400 for the first time since his last season as a Padre. He’ll also draw walks, so
he will be a welcomed addition. Speaking of infielders, while not a new addition, Carlos
Asauje has an interesting bat-to-ball profile with decent defense at the pivot.
One spot to look for some value is Alex Dickerson. Dickerson missed all of the 2017
season after a solid MLB debut with a .257/.333/.455 slash in 285 plate appearances.
He’s got a bit of pop and could plug in nicely as a part-time player.
On the pitching side of the ledger, Dinelson Lamet is my dude. I’m buying stock in the
25-year-old. Lamet’s full body of work was a little bit deceiving, as he had a 4.57 ERA
with a 4.35 FIP and a 4.20 xFIP. He struck out 139 and walked 54 in his 114.1 innings of
work. Lamet allowed 14 earned runs (16 total) in two starts on June 6 and 11. From June
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17 to the end of the season, Lamet posted a 3.83 ERA with a 3.94 FIP and a 4.05 xFIP.
He gave up 10 runs in his last two starts, so if we exclude those, he had a 3.24 ERA with
a 3.44 FIP and a 3.86 xFIP for 86 innings across 15 starts with a 103/38 K/BB ratio. You
take the inconsistency with a guy like Lamet because the upside is so high. If he can
harness his control and be more consistent with his command, the Padres just might have
the front of the rotation guy they’ve been lacking since Jake Peavy.
Clayton Richard was pretty solid last season. Richard, an extreme ground ball starter
from the left side, had a 4.79 ERA because the Padres were not a good defensive team.
He had a 4.23 FIP and a 3.76 xFIP, so he was an above average starter per those two
metrics. Richard had a .351 BABIP against. Per Statcast, Richard had a .308 batting
average against with an Expected Batting Average of .269. The Padres do look better
around the horn defensively this season, so Richard should see some positive regression
in that high BABIP.
Tyson Ross has a track record of success, but he has battled a ton of injuries the last two
years. Ross is back with San Diego, where he had a 3.26 ERA with a 2.98 FIP and a 3.15
xFIP in 2015. He’s only made 18 starts across all levels the last two seasons, but San
Diego is very familiar with his medical history and maybe that will help. Bryan Mitchell
posted a 3.25/2.18/2.80 pitcher slash in 13 starts and one relief appearance with Scranton
Wilkes/Barre in the Yankees org last season, but struggled as an MLB reliever.
Luis Perdomo is an interesting arm. He had a 4.67 ERA with a 4.40 FIP and a 4.24 xFIP
and ran into some of the same problems as Richard. Perdomo throws a sinker-heavy
arsenal that induced a ground ball 61.8 percent of the last season. As I’ve talked about in
previous write-ups, teams don’t manufacture innings anymore, as singles were at a 40-
year low. Perdomo had a .325 BABIP against and was only able to strand 68.3 percent of
runners. In spite of that, he had an above average FIP and xFIP and some better fortunes
with batted ball and sequencing should help.
Brad Hand is one of the game’s top relievers. Hopefully he isn’t pigeonholed as the
closer this season because he needs to be a multi-inning, high-leverage weapon, akin to
Andrew Miller and Chris Devenski. In 79.1 innings last season, Hand was excellent with
a 104/20 K/BB ratio. Maybe having a multi-inning closer is the next inefficiency in the
relief world, as Hand did have 21 saves last season. He’ll be dynamite in whatever role
he’s in.
The rest of the bullpen has a few interesting arms. Kirby Yates has always had swing-
and-miss stuff, but he put it all together last season and had a 3.72 ERA with a 3.50 FIP
and a 3.21 xFIP with the Padres in 55.2 innings of work. He struck out 87 and walked
just 19. Home runs may be a bit of an issue with an extreme fly ball profile, but he misses
a lot of bats. Craig Stammen ironed out some kinks in the first half and then held
opposing batters to a .254 wOBA in the second half and hung a 1.10 ERA. Kazuhisa
Makita will be a different look for hitters as a low-slot submariner out of Japan. Makita
throws about 80, but has a low angle and an assortment of breaking balls that are
almost eephus-like.
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Why bet the under?
Let’s face facts. This is not a good baseball team. With the inclusion of Eric Hosmer, the
Padres conceivably project to be average or better by fWAR at C, 1B, RF, CF, and have
two average or better starters in Clayton Richard and Dinelson Lamet. On the relief side,
Brad Hand is really the only standout. So, this is a Padres team trotting out a lot of below
average players on a regular basis.
By wRC+, only Jose Pirela, Wil Myers, and Matt Szczur graded out as above average
among those with at least 200 plate appearances. Eric Hosmer will be another one, but he
will push Myers to the outfield, where his extensive injury history becomes a factor and
his defense tails off.
Let’s break some of these guys down a little bit more, starting with Jose Pirela. Pirela was
one of the biggest overachievers in xwOBA – wOBA, which used batted ball data to
determine outcomes. Pirela had a .360 wOBA, but his expected wOBA using launch
angle, distance, and exit velocity, among other factors, was just .308. Pirela’s awful
launch angle of 5.5 degrees would seem to make the power gains unsustainable. If Pirela
cuts down on the strikeouts and puts more balls in play, the average and OBP could be
sustainable, but a .490 SLG would be an enormous surprise. It certainly feels like he is
the kind of guy that will fall back. As one of the three players that posted an above
average wRC+, a regression of his stats will be a big problem.
As it turns out, Eric Hosmer is another guy with a big xwOBA – wOBA discrepancy. His
xwOBA of .347 was certainly lower than his actual wOBA of .385. He hits a lot of
ground balls and low line drives and those types of things don’t jive with the Statcast
formula. Petco Park isn’t the pitcher’s haven it used to be, and Kauffman Stadium is
mostly neutral, but Hosmer is a pretty tough buy to make given his inconsistencies. He’s
also not a great defensive first baseman, contrary to the narratives out there about him.
He’s an upgrade and a decent player. The Padres overpaid for his services relative to the
comparable players out there and he won’t be a savior for this team. He’ll probably be the
best hitter of a bad bunch, but that doesn’t mean much here.
I can’t behind an offensive setup like this. I need guys that draw walks. I need guys that
can make offense happen when hits aren’t falling or when conditions are poor for hitting.
The Padres don’t have those guys. They have a lot of 15/15 dudes that can carry some
value, but either don’t get on base enough to build off of it or their teammates don’t. In
all, 120 of the Padres’ 189 home runs were solo shots. Only the Giants and Pirates hit
fewer home runs with men on base. This is a byproduct of not being able to draw walks
and having a lot of low-average hitters. This just isn’t an offense that works in 2017 and
we saw that play out because the Padres were the worst offensive team in baseball. San
Diego had 105 fewer plate appearances with a runner on base than the next closest team.
You can’t score runs like that, which means you can’t win games like that.
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The Padres have a good plan in place by trying to amass as many sinker/slider ground
ball types as possible. That is the thought process behind Tyson Ross, who, if healthy,
would fit nicely with guys like Luis Perdomo and Clayton Richard. Unfortunately, it
doesn’t work with a bad defense. The Padres were -6 DRS at second base, -4 DRS at
shortstop with a terrible UZR, and -14 defensive runs saved at third base. Headley is
coming off of his worst career season defensively, so we’ll have to see how that plays
out. Freddy Galvis is doing the same at shortstop, though UZR was more favorable than
DRS. Because the Padres only have one starter that can strike guys out in Dinelson
Lamet, it is up to the fielders. That is a risky proposition. Ironically, the outfield was
good, but the Padres don’t have the type of staff to utilize it.
The rotation looks pretty suspect, with Lamet as the only guy that has above average
upside. Tyson Ross is a big gamble and so is Bryan Mitchell, who has never really shown
the ability to stick at the MLB level. The Padres need to hope that Kirby Yates and Craig
Stammen are sustainable in the bullpen, otherwise the guys to set things up in advance of
Brad Hand appearances are going to struggle.
The Padres have an exciting farm system, but Luis Urias is the only one close to the
Majors. Fernando Tatis Jr. can rake, but he’s only 19 and in Double-A. None of the
prospect pitchers worked above Double-A last season. Joey Lucchesi could make his way
to the big leagues, as he’ll turn 25 later this year, but the Padres are still at least a year
and more than likely two years away from having these guys at the MLB level to make a
tangible impact.
Without a gory deep dive into stats, let’s just look at the obvious. The Padres are playing
57 games against playoff teams from last season and another 19 against a Giants team
that hit rock bottom last year and added two potential impact players in Andrew
McCutchen and Evan Longoria. There just isn’t a whole lot of upside with anything for
this team.
Pick: Over 70.5 (-110, BetOnline)
Let’s be very clear. This is a bad team. This isn’t one of those spots in which I pick a
team to win over 70.5 and think they’re going to suddenly be a .500 team. The underlying
standings metrics certainly didn’t like the Padres last season and I wouldn’t be in a hurry
to bet this number. My guess is that the Padres win total creeps down a bit as people get
more involved and invested in these win totals. We’ve got March Madness and whatnot
to get through first.
However, there are some things I tentatively like about the rotation and I do think that
this is a better defensive team overall. The bullpen is fairly decent and the offense has
kind of an interesting skill set. It is not easy to lose 90 games. The Padres barely did it
last season and were awful. San Diego can be a challenging trip for visiting teams
because of the time change and the other NL West opponents. It doesn’t really surprise
me that the Friars were 43-38 at home.
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I think they can do something close to that again, which requires us to get just 28 wins on
the road, which is what the team managed last year. I won’t be putting money on this one
unless the number goes down, but this is one of those bottom feeders that may be a bit
better than advertised.
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San Francisco Giants
The San Francisco Giants are the 30th and final MLB Season Win Total preview. Major
League thanks to all of the readers that have been with me on this wild ride and hopefully
these previews can help you with your futures bets and have opened your eyes to some of
the advanced concepts and statistics that are out there. It doesn’t need to be a scary world
when it comes to stats and I have presented a lot of talking points that can carry weight
for fantasy baseball players and within the context of day-to-day handicapping as well.
Wrestling fans will get this reference. When I look at the 2017 season for the San
Francisco Giants, all I hear in my head is Jim Ross screaming out, “Rock Bottom! Rock
Bottom!” It truly was for the Giants, who lost 98 games for the first time since 1985 and
had their first losing season since 2013. The Giants finished 40 games out of first place.
This is a Giants team that hasn’t won the division since 2012, but has three World Series
titles this decade and has been an even-year darling. In 2010, the Giants won the World
Series. The same in 2012 and 2014. In 2016, the Giants won the Wild Card Game, but
lost in four to the Cubs. It is an even year, so get those Giants futures tickets in.
The Giants ran bad last year. Brandon Belt suffered another concussion and was limited
to 451 plate appearances. Madison Bumgarner was hurt in a dirt bike accident and only
worked 111 innings. Johnny Cueto was limited to 147.1 innings because of blisters.
However, the Giants had six players with at least 150 plate appearances. The problem is
that a lot of those guys and a lot of the part-time guys simply didn’t hit. Injuries to
Bumgarner and Cueto are going to hurt any team, but those aren’t the reason why the
Giants scored the second-fewest runs in baseball and had the worst wRC+ in the league.
The Giants had the lowest wOBA in baseball at .296. This wasn’t injury-related. This
was a team that simply wasn’t very good and the key injuries turned the team into one
that lost 98 games.
Armed with three new additions in the lineup and a couple in the bullpen, the Giants have
reshuffled the deck in hopes of making a run at the Dodgers. San Francisco’s 64-98
record was accompanied by a 67-95 Pythagorean Win-Loss record and a 66-96 BaseRuns
record, so there is modest improvement suggested in the metrics, but this team has a long
way to go offensively.
Will the Giants reach their goals? Will the additions play out as hoped? Will the pitching
staff stay healthy? Will the baseball gods recognize that it is an even-numbered year? A
lot of questions have to be answered with this team.
Season Win Total Odds:
5Dimes: 83.5 (-110/-110)
BetOnline: 83 (-120/100)
Bovada: 81.5 (-190/155)
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Additions: Andrew McCutchen, Evan Longoria, Austin Jackson, Tony Watson,
Hector Sanchez, Justin O’Connor, Kyle Jensen, Josh Rutledge, Alen Hanson,
Andres Blanco, Chase d’Arnaud, Luigi Rodriguez, Dereck Rodriguez, Chris
Heston, Manny Parra, Jose Valdez, Madison Younginer, Sam Wolff, Derek Holland
Losses: Matt Cain, Conor Gillaspie, Carlos Moncrief, Jae-gyun Hwang, Mike
Morse, Tim Federowicz, Collin Balester, Vic Black, Cody Hall, Slade Heathcott,
Albert Suarez, Matt Moore, Christian Arroyo, Denard Span, Matt Krook, Stephen
Woods, Bryan Reynolds, Kyle Crick
The Giants acquired two big names in Andrew McCutchen and Evan Longoria.
McCutchen is a one-year rental and the Giants do have some financial concerns with the
luxury tax, so it seems unlikely that they would be able to re-sign him. He has plenty of
experience hitting in a bad offensive environment, so the hope would be that he can keep
his numbers high.
Evan Longoria is a long-term investment at third base. San Francisco had the worst
wOBA at third base by 17 points last season, so this is clearly a huge upgrade. Austin
Jackson and McCutchen should combine to improve the outfield defense this season and
Jackson was a solid offensive player for the Indians last season. Tony Watson is a fun
acquisition for the bullpen, as I’ll talk about in a bit.
The losses aren’t overly significant. The Giants did give up some of their future in
Christian Arroyo, Bryan Reynolds, and Kyle Crick to weaken a farm system that was
already one of the least-heralded in baseball, but those moves needed to be made.
Why bet the over?
As evidenced by last season, it has to start with pitching for the Giants. AT&T Park is an
awful environment for offense, so the pitchers have to be on point. The guy at the
forefront in that regard is Madison Bumgarner. Bumgarner only made 17 starts last
season because he suffered a major shoulder injury in a dirt bike accident. Bumgarner
posted solid rates with a 3.32 ERA, a 3.95 FIP, and a 4.07 xFIP, considering that the
accident caused damage to his throwing shoulder. Bumgarner’s command did drop off,
but his control was as good as always, with a 4.4 percent BB%. His strikeout percentage
wasn’t there and hitters forced a 12.9 percent HR/FB%. Bumgarner had struck out at least
a batter per inning every season since 2013 up until last year. There is no reason to expect
him to fall off. Projection systems do seem really cautious about him, but I’m not buying
it. A healthy Bumgarner is a four-win pitcher.
Johnny Cueto is the one to worry about, but there are a lot of reasons to expect him to be
better. Pitchers have voiced their displeasure with the juiced balls, but there was another
concerning development last season. Blisters were more prevalent than ever and Cueto
fell victim to one. As a result, his walk rate climbed and his HR/FB% shot through the
roof. Cueto had a 4.52 ERA with a 4.49 FIP and a 4.45 xFIP. He gave up 22 home runs in
just 147.1 innings. For a frame of reference, Cueto had not allowed more than 22 HR in a
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season since 2009 and he worked 243.2 innings that season. His K%-BB% was 12.8
percent, his lowest since 2011. A guy with his track record should be able to bounce
back.
Jeff Samardzija’s terrific season was obscured by just how bad the Giants wound up
being. Samardzija posted a 4.42 ERA, which obviously isn’t great, but he had a 3.61 FIP
and a 3.60 xFIP. A 67.5 percent LOB% was the culprit with the high ERA. Samardzija
posted his best strikeout rate since 2013 and lowered his walk rate to a career-best 3.8
percent. While I wouldn’t expect a repeat of the walk rate, the K rate could be here to
stay with some modest arsenal changes, including a return of his curveball. Samardzija
had a 3.4-win season.
Chris Stratton quietly had 47 strikeouts in 48.2 innings of work in the second half. Ty
Blach is one of those weak-contact types. Tyler Beede is basically ready and fellow top-
10 prospect Andrew Suarez should be coming soon as well.
On the relief side of the ledger, the Giants are in better shape this season. Mark Melancon
was limited to just 30 innings last year and he should be back in the mix fully healthy.
Tony Watson came at a stunningly cheap price and led the league in average exit velocity
against with a minimum of 190 batted ball events. He led by a full mile per hour over
Jeremy Jeffress, which should allow his numbers to stay strong on the road, away from
AT&T Park’s pitcher-friendly conditions. Hunter Strickland has some upside and the
Giants should get Will Smith back from injury.
Buster Posey remains one of the best at his position. Posey posted a .320/.400/.462 slash
last season while splitting time between catcher and first base. He predominantly caught,
with 826.1 innings in the crouch, but played 258.2 at first base, most of it after Brandon
Belt’s concussion. It was a good bounce back season for Posey offensively, as he climbed
back to a .366 wOBA, just .001 points off from his career average. His power doesn’t
blow anybody away, but he gets on base a ton and offense from the catcher position is
pretty rare league-wide. Posey doesn’t have elite power numbers, but a few more
sustained seasons of this from a bad offensive position and we have to start wondering
about the Hall of Fame.
Brandon Belt is a very underrated hitter. Back-to-back four-win seasons didn’t do much
to change the narrative for whatever reason, but this is a guy that can rake. He’ll turn 30
in April, but he was on track to set a new career-high in dingers and was on the verge of
posting his second straight season with a 15 percent walk rate. Belt gets on base a ton.
The last two years, Belt has made a concerted effort to increase his launch angle, going
from 15.4 degrees in 2015 to 21 degrees in 2016 and 20.7 degrees in 2017. His .346
BABIP in 2016 was a bit unsustainable with a launch angle like that, so it did regress to
.284, which was a little bit low. My guess is that we see Belt somewhere in the
.260/.370/.480 range this season, with the chance for more in the power department.
The Giants were looking for an upgrade at third base and believe they found it in Evan
Longoria. Longoria is a solid defensive third baseman and owns a career .270/.341/.483
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slash line with a .351 wOBA and a 123 wRC+. He sacrificed some OBP for SLG in 2016
and hit a career-high 36 home runs. Unfortunately, he struggled in 2017, so we’ll have to
see if the Giants acquired a depreciating asset, but he’s going to be a tangible upgrade for
the team with the worst third base production by a large margin last year.
Andrew McCutchen put up numbers in a bad offensive park, so his production at AT&T
Park should be pretty decent. It also doesn’t hurt to catch a player in a contract year.
Cutch slashed .279/.363/.486 last year, as his power returned a little bit and he also got
back to stealing a few more bases. His defense is a massive liability in center, but
whenever Austin Jackson plays, he’ll find himself in right field, where he should be a
little bit better.
Around the horn, the Giants have a strong shortstop in Brandon Crawford, who took a
pretty big step back last season. His usual stellar defense lessened in value because his
offense totally fell off. Crawford walked less, made worse contact, and posted an 86
wRC+. Crawford is just one season removed from three straight years with a wRC+ of
101 or better, so there are a lot of reasons to look for a bounce back. Furthermore, we
know the defense will be there, so even as a player 14 percent below league average
offensively, Crawford was still a two-win player.
Hunter Pence isn’t that far removed from being a solid hitter and Austin Jackson is
coming off of a terrific year with the Indians in a part-time capacity. Joe Panik gets on
base at a decent clip and the bench has competent MLB talent.
Why bet the under?
It would seem like a lot of this season for the Giants hinges on the two new acquisitions.
Evan Longoria is coming off of the worst season of his MLB career. He slashed just
.261/.313/.424 and is going to a park that is awful for offense. One really weird trend
with Longo is that his BB% has gone down basically every season since 2013. He did
rebound a bit from last year’s career low of 6.1 percent, but only to 6.8 percent. He did
have the best K% of his career, but the contact quality simply wasn’t there and neither
was the power. Longoria may need to get back to drawing walks in order to create some
more offensive value. Longoria hit 36 HR in 2017, but inexplicably hit a ton of ground
balls last season and his FB% dropped by 10 percent. I’m really not sure what to make of
all of this, but Longoria is a guy with a track record and will get a fresh start in a different
organization. I really don’t have high hopes for Longoria, though.
Andrew McCutchen is a massive defensive liability and he went to about the only park in
baseball worse than PNC Park for hitters. McCutchen’s slugging percentage spike came
with a lower launch angle and less exit velocity, which are not good signs for the
sustainability of such a trend. Add AT&T Park into the mix and it really isn’t a great
recipe. He’ll still get on base and walk a fair amount, but with the defensive questions, a
loss of power won’t be able to obscure his fielding foibles. Right field is a bit strange to
play at AT&T Park and whenever he’s in center field to spare a big injury risk in Austin
Jackson, it won’t be a good look.
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Speaking of the outfield as a whole, I just outlined the McCutchen worries. Jackson has
had some lower-body injuries the last two years and I’m not ready to buy into the single-
season, same-side pitching spike. Jackson actually slashed .291/.345/.411 against righties
last season, so he was league average and played pepper with lefties to the tune of a 171
wRC+ and a .429 wOBA. Denard Span was awful in center field, with -27 DRS, so the
center field situation will be better no matter what, but how much will Jackson be out
there? Will McCutchen slot in against all RHP? That isn’t an optimal defensive setup.
Gorkys Hernandez also hits right-handed, so that’s not it. It really isn’t a great situation
all the way around in CF.
Hunter Pence has finally run into injuries. After playing at least 154 games from 2008-14,
Pence has played 52, 106, and 134 over the last three seasons. Last year, his offense
eroded and he posted a .260/.315/.385 slash line. He walked less and hit for virtually no
power. He’ll turn 35 a couple weeks into the season and I really don’t want to buy very
much stock in him.
Brandon Belt and Buster Posey should be just fine, but we’ll see how often Posey gets a
spell behind the plate in order to keep him fresh. Belt’s launch angle improvements are
exciting from a power standpoint, but this really isn’t a great park for that and maybe the
line drive approach is a better idea. I’ll be curious to see if the BABIP drop is a long-term
thing or a one-off trend. If it’s a one-off thing, that’s great. His high-walk rate will
increase his offensive value back to the 130 wRC+ range. If it isn’t, then we have the
chance of seeing another 120 wRC+ season, which is great, but not great enough with
this lackluster offense.
Madison Bumgarner will be fine. Let’s hope that it was just the blister issues for the 32-
year-old Johnny Cueto. The velocity has gone down the last two seasons and the Zone%
took a huge tumble last season. Fortunately hitters chased at a career-high clip. My guess
is that he will be fine, but we have to watch that home run rate in this era of launch angles
and juiced balls.
That was the problem for Jeff Samardzija as well. It wasn’t just a subpar LOB% that
created a high ERA. It was a home run problem. It was more of a problem than you
would think at home with a .405 SLG against, but it was a huge issue on the road with a
.483 SLG against. He allowed 22 HR in 112.1 innings of work. This is now a three-year
thing with the home runs for Samardzija. If the strikeout percentage increase isn’t legit,
you may have a problem on your hands with him.
The back end of this rotation is pretty uninspiring, with a soft-tosser like Ty Blach and a
pretty average starter in Chris Stratton. Stratton doesn’t miss a lot of bats and has a
defense-dependent style of pitching. That’s fine if guys hit the ball on the ground at clips
like we’ve seen in the minors. It really isn’t if they hit it in the air and his double-digit
walk rates at various stops in the minors are a big concern for me.
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This bullpen isn’t great. I really like Tony Watson and a healthy Mark Melancon is a
solid reliever. Beyond that, Sam Dyson is inconsistent at best and walks too many guys to
thrive as a reliever. Hunter Strickland also had a high walk rate last year and a 2.64 ERA
to go along with a 5.07 xFIP, so regression is certainly possible there. Cory Gearrin was
another guy that had a low ERA of 1.99 with a FIP of 3.89 and an xFIP of 4.65. There
aren’t a whole lot of guys I trust in a middle relief capacity with this group.
The Giants are being asked to make a big leap this season. They were a victim of
circumstance last year, with Madison Bumgarner’s dirt bike accident and Johnny Cueto’s
blister. They grabbed what could very well be a depreciating asset in Evan Longoria and
have banked on one year of Andrew McCutchen. There isn’t a ton of pitching depth, even
with Chris Heston back in the organization.
Also, this is a tough division. Colorado has some problems, but that is a team that won 87
games last year. Arizona won 93 and will be a force. The Dodgers are always a force.
AT&T Park is a good home venue for the Giants because of their mediocre offense, but
there are a lot of games against stiff competition on the horizon.
Pick: Under 83.5 (-110, 5Dimes)
I’m just not buying this team. I realize that healthy Madison Bumgarner and Johnny
Cueto are huge upgrades and Evan Longoria, while no longer stellar, is a big upgrade to
what was at third base, but I don’t love the total package here. There are a few individual
players that stand out, but nothing jumps out at me on the whole. I really don’t see this as
a team that can be 20 games better than last season. Maybe there was an emotional
trickle-down effect when Bumgarner went out, but this just isn’t a team that inspires me a
whole lot.
They are clearly behind the Dodgers and the Diamondbacks. I’m not really in love with
the Rockies for this season, but I do like some of the potential of the pitching staff.
Defensively, I’m really concerned about this outfield for the Giants, with old legs in
Hunter Pence, Andrew McCutchen, and Austin Jackson. Pence and Jackson are both
injury liabilities and there isn’t a lot of help within the organization if injuries pop up.
I’m honestly not sure what the vision is for this team. MadBum only has one year left on
his deal after 2018. If Longoria keeps trending in the way that he is, he’ll be a hard
contract to justify through 2022. The McCutchen deal makes some sense if you feel like a
contender this season, but I’m not sure I see it, as I find the Mets, Cardinals, Brewers, and
Diamondbacks to all be better options in the Wild Card race.
On the other hand, I’ve never been all that big on the Giants and they have three World
Series titles this decade and Bruce Bochy just seems to know the right buttons to push. I
won’t invest in this team one way or another for those reasons, but I really don’t think
they’re a team getting to the mid-80s.
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Thanks and Acknowledgements
First and foremost, I would like to thank my boss, Ryan. I am able to have this platform
and to do things like this because of him. These are certainly a massive undertaking for
me, but to have a place to scribble down my thoughts and share them with interested
readers is something that I am thankful for every day and it is because of him and his
website that I have that.
To the readers that have made it this far, thank you. There are 227 pages of baseball
information here and over 113,000 words about the upcoming season. I especially want
to thank those who do not use the advanced metrics for keeping an open mind and
considering them in your research for the upcoming season. See, I told you, they’re not
scary!
So much of what I have been able to write on these pages is because of the phenomenal
work done by people in the baseball community at places like Fangraphs, Baseball
Prospectus, Statcast, The Hardball Times, The Athletic, Beyond the Box Score, Baseball-
Reference, Brooks Baseball, and other sites that I haven’t omitted on purpose. Writers
like Eno Sarris, Jeff Sullivan, Andrew Perpetua, Paul Sporer, Russell Carleton, Travis
Sawchik, Chris Mitchell, Eric Longenhagen, Tom Tango, Bill James, Aaron Gleeman,
Kiley McDaniel, Carson Cistulli, Mike Podhorzer, David Laurila, Jeff Zimmerman, Zack
Meisel, Paul Swydan, Ben Lindbergh, Sam Miller, Jay Jaffe, Jonah Keri, beat writers for
MLB.com and local newspapers, and writers turned front office members like Max
Marchi, Mike Fast, Jason Parks, Josh Kalk, Dave Cameron, and countless others have
broadened my horizons and have made me a much smarter baseball fan by putting pen to
paper and fingers to keyboard. I, and so many others, will forever be deeply indebted to
these individuals for bringing baseball analysis to new heights.
Thanks again for reading and good luck this season!