Beyond Climate Change:
No Global Environmental Crisis Left Behind
International co-operation to address Global Challenges
OECD, Paris, 25-26 March 2009
Carlos M. Duarte
CSIC
Mallorca
Spain
Outline
Climate change vs. Global Change
Collision Trajectories
Thresholds and Tipping Points
Challenges for International Cooperation
Climate Change is recognized as a Global Threat
receiving substantial political and public attention
News in Mass Media
(sample, Spain)
Is Energy the only Resources we Consume in Excess?
Essential Elements
(N, P, Fe, etc.)
Synthetic
substances
Water
LandBiodiversity
Energy Use
Per capita energy use (MW-h/year) Per capita water use (MW-h/year)
Per capita resource use is growing
(5 to 10 fold in 20th Century)
Human Demands are Ovreshooting the Planet’s Capacity
Data Pop. Ref. Bureau y de NU
Rapid Growth of Human Population
Núm
ero
de
per
sonas
(m
iles
de
mil
lones
)
Estimates of the Earth’s
Carrying Capacity
Water
Arable land
Food
Hoy
2050
Humanity is about to
enter a new period of
limited Earth’s
capacity to support
further population
growth
Global Change
Impact of human activity on the processes that
govern the functioning of the Earth System.
The term “Change” refers to the fact that the
regulation of the functioning of the Earth System has
now changed due to the introduction of control
mechanisms – technology – that simply did not exist
over most of the Earth’s history (e.g. CFC’s and
Ozone; Haber reaction and the N cycle, etc.).
The risks involved are not
the sum of those derived
from the individual
trajectories but those
resulting from the interaction
of multiple interacting
trajectories
Population GDP
Land Used Forest loss
CO2 Energy
Water use Nitrogen flux
The trajectories of growing
pressure on natural
resources are in a collision
course
CFC’s
Ozone loss
UV increase
Biodiversity
Loss
Climate
Change
Resource use Global Changes Impacts
Loss of ecosystem
services and resilience
Diseases
Food and water
insecutiry
Erosion of
Environmental
Basis to well being
Economic loss
Energy
Elements (N, P, Fe,
etc.)
Land
Biodiversity
Synthetic Chemicals
Climate
Change
Resource use Global Changes
Biofuel Use
Reduced Emissions
Mitigation of
Climate
Change
Global Change
Energy
Nitrogen
Water
Land
Pesticides and
Herbicides
-
Migration and
Conflicts
Povertry
Food insecurity
Increased
Emissions
Depleation of
Water
Resources
Desertification
Reduced water,
soil and air quality
Biodiversity
loss
Energy
Water
Elements (N, P, Fe,
etc.)
Land
Biodiversity
Synthetic Chemicals
Resource use
Loss of air, soil and
water quality
Biodiversity
Loss
Climate
Change
Changes in
Water Cycling
Desertification
UV increase
Global Changes
Loss of ecosystem
services and resilience
Migration,
Conflicts
Deseases
Food and water
insecutiry
Erosion of
Environmental
Basis to well being
Economic loss
Impacts
IPCC
Extent of Climate ChangeEco
syst
em R
esponse
Smooth
Response
Extent of Climate Change
Eco
syst
em R
esponse
Abrupt
Response
Threshold
The response of the
Earth System to
climate change may be
smooth or abrupt
depending on the
functional
relationships involved
and the extent of
interactions between
components.
Abrupt changes are
expected for
complex systems and
are more likely when
different trajectories
enter in collision
Abrupt Changes
Earth System
Ecosystem
Social System
Understanding
Mitigating & Adapting
Technology
Engineering
Social Sciences
Geosciences
Biosciences
Doing
Society:
Innovation
Governance
Cooperation
Communication
Education
Time: Procastinating has a cost
Every year that elapses without “doing”:
* The trajectories of global crisis rise
• The risks of trespassing critical thresholds and
tipping the system increases as the trajectories
continue to rise.
• Options for adaptation and mitigation shrink
while costs rise.
Dialog with Society
Popular science
Scientists
Specialised
journals
Journalists and
News Agencies
Mass media
Society
Too long
Unefffective
Slow
Prone to noise
A new partnership
toward effective
communication
between scientists and
society
Science and Technology Challenges
A new, encompassing Global Change Approach to the problem.
Transdisciplinary Integration (from Geo to Social Sciences) –
requires new tools, concepts and structures.
Global Integration and Regional Participation
Scientific independence (clear separation between scientific
evidence and politics)
More effective and direct platforms to reach out and convey
scientific results to society and its actors.
Coordinate policies