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WHAT IS FORECASTING?
Forecasting is the use ofhistoric data to determine the
direction of future trends.
It is a planning tool that helps management in its attempts to
cope with the uncertainty of the future, relying mainly on data from
the past and present and analysis of trends.
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TYPES OFFORECASTS
Economic
Technological
Demand
Political
Social
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THREE POPULAR FORECASTING
TECHNIQUES
o Cross Impact Analysis
o Trend Impact Analysis
o Delphi Technique
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CROSS-IMPACT ANALYSIS
Is a method that helps the process of scanning thefield of possible future to reduce uncertainties.
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Step 1: Choice of the issue and Selecting the experts
Step 2: Final selection and definition of events
Step 3: Design the probability of scale and
definition of the time horizon
Step 4: Estimating probabilities
Step 5: Generation of Scenarios
STEPS IN CROSS-IMPACT ANALYSIS
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RESOURCES NEEDED
o Time
o Budget
o Labor Force
o Resources
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MAIN BENEFITS OF CIAIt is relatively easy to implement SMICquestionnaire
Cross-impact methods forces attention into
chains of causality
Estimate dependency and interdependencyamong events
It can be used to clarify and increaseknowledge on future developments
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TREND IMPACT ANALYSISIs a forecasting method that permits extrapolations of historical
trends to be modified in view of expectations about future events.
This method permits an analyst, interested in tracking a particular
trend, to include and systematically examine the effects of possible
future events that are believed important.
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DELPHI TECHNIQUEA forecasting techniques using a group processthat allows experts to make forecasts.
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Key elements of the DelphiProcess
o Structuring of the information flow
o Feedback to the participants
o Anonymity for the participants
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Steps for the Delphi Method
1. Formation of a team to undertake and monitor a Delphi on a given subject.
2. Selection of one or more panels to participate in the exercise. Customarily, the panelists are
experts in the area to be investigated.
3. Development of the first round Delphi questionnaire
4. Testing the questionnaire for proper wording (e.g., ambiguities, vagueness)
5. Transmission of the first questionnaires to the panelists
6. Analysis of the first round responses
7. Preparation of the second round questionnaires (and possible testing)
8. Transmission of the second round questionnaires to the panelists
9. Analysis of the second round responses (Steps 7 to 9 are reiterated as long as desired or
necessary to achieve stability in the results.)
10. Preparation of a report by the analysis team to present the conclusions of the exercise