Metrostudy Brad Hunter (561) 573-8351
Brad HunterChief Economist
(561) 835-9235(561) 573-8351
South Florida Housing MarketCurrent Conditions and Forecast
April 21, 2009
Metrostudy Brad Hunter (561) 573-8351
The Main Factor that is Keeping the Economy Depressed (Locally and Nationally)….?
Falling Home Prices
Talk about a double-edged sword! We want affordable market-priced housing, but it is a painful adjustment!
Metrostudy Brad Hunter (561) 573-8351
South Florida Housing Production is Effectively ZeroAbsorption Has Fallen Too
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
1Q03 1Q04 1Q05 1Q06 1Q07 1Q08 1Q09
Uni
ts
Quarterly Starts Quarterly Move-Ins
Metrostudy Brad Hunter (561) 573-8351
New Home Inventories Are Coming Down (which would normally relieve some downward price pressure)…
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
18,000
20,000
1Q03 1Q04 1Q05 1Q06 1Q07 1Q08 1Q09
Uni
ts
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
Mon
ths
Finished Vacant Under Construction Months Supply
Metrostudy Brad Hunter (561) 573-8351
…But South Florida Job Losses Continue to Erode Incomes and Confidence
(120,000)
(100,000)
(80,000)
(60,000)
(40,000)
(20,000)
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
Feb-06 Feb-07 Feb-08 Feb-09
Y-O
-Y C
hang
e in
Em
ploy
men
t
Source: Department of Labor
Metrostudy Brad Hunter (561) 573-8351
New Home InventoriesBy County
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
2,000
St. Lucie Indian River Martin Palm Beach Broward Miami-Dade
Uni
ts
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
Mon
ths
Finished Vacant Under Construction Months Supply
Metrostudy Brad Hunter (561) 573-8351
The Biggest Source of Downward Price Pressure 2009 and 2010?
R.E.O.
Metrostudy Brad Hunter (561) 573-8351
Miami-Dade Mortgage Foreclosure Filings and Certificates of Title (Banks Only)
0500
1,0001,5002,0002,5003,0003,5004,0004,5005,0005,5006,0006,500
Jan-
06Fe
b-06
Mar
-06
Apr-
06M
ay-0
6Ju
n-06
Jul-0
6Au
g-06
Sep-
06Oc
t-06
Nov-
06De
c-06
Jan-
07Fe
b-07
Mar
-07
Apr-
07M
ay-0
7Ju
n-07
Jul-0
7Au
g-07
Sep-
07Oc
t-07
Nov-
07De
c-07
Jan-
08Fe
b-08
Mar
-08
Apr-
08M
ay-0
8Ju
n-08
Jul-0
8Au
g-08
Sep-
08Oc
t-08
Nov-
08De
c-08
Jan-
09Fe
b-09
Filings by Banks Certs into Banks
Metrostudy Brad Hunter (561) 573-8351
Broward Mortgage Foreclosure Filings versus Certificates of Title (Banks Only)
0500
1,0001,5002,0002,5003,0003,5004,0004,500
Jan-
06Fe
b-06
Mar-0
6Ap
r-06
May-
06Ju
n-06
Jul-0
6Au
g-06
Sep-
06Oc
t-06
Nov-
06De
c-06
Jan-
07Fe
b-07
Mar-0
7Ap
r-07
May-
07Ju
n-07
Jul-0
7Au
g-07
Sep-
07Oc
t-07
Nov-
07De
c-07
Jan-
08Fe
b-08
Mar-0
8Ap
r-08
May-
08Ju
n-08
Jul-0
8Au
g-08
Sep-
08Oc
t-08
Nov-
08De
c-08
Jan-
09Fe
b-09
Mar-0
9
Filings by Banks Certs into Banks
Metrostudy Brad Hunter (561) 573-8351
Option-ARM Recasts will Trigger the Next Wave of Foreclosures in late 2009
Source: Business Week/Credit Suisse
Metrostudy Brad Hunter (561) 573-8351
11Miami-Dade CountySingle Family Median Resale Home Prices
$0
$50,000
$100,000
$150,000
$200,000
$250,000
$300,000
$350,000
$400,000
$450,000
Jan-
93Ju
l-93
Jan-
94Ju
l-94
Jan-
95Ju
l-95
Jan-
96Ju
l-96
Jan-
97Ju
l-97
Jan-
98Ju
l-98
Jan-
99Ju
l-99
Jan-
00Ju
l-00
Jan-
01Ju
l-01
Jan-
02Ju
l-02
Jan-
03Ju
l-03
Jan-
04Ju
l-04
Jan-
05Ju
l-05
Jan-
06Ju
l-06
Jan-
07Ju
l-07
Jan-
08Ju
l-08
Jan-
09Ju
l-09
Jan-
10Ju
l-10
Jan-
11
Med
ian
Resa
le P
rice
Median Price5% Annual Increase
Source: Florida Association of Realtors
Febr
uary
, 200
9
?
Metrostudy Brad Hunter (561) 573-8351
12Broward CountySingle Family Median Resale Home Prices
$0
$50,000
$100,000
$150,000
$200,000
$250,000
$300,000
$350,000
$400,000
$450,000
Jan-
93Ju
l-93
Jan-
94Ju
l-94
Jan-
95Ju
l-95
Jan-
96Ju
l-96
Jan-
97Ju
l-97
Jan-
98Ju
l-98
Jan-
99Ju
l-99
Jan-
00Ju
l-00
Jan-
01Ju
l-01
Jan-
02Ju
l-02
Jan-
03Ju
l-03
Jan-
04Ju
l-04
Jan-
05Ju
l-05
Jan-
06Ju
l-06
Jan-
07Ju
l-07
Jan-
08Ju
l-08
Jan-
09Ju
l-09
Jan-
10Ju
l-10
Jan-
11
Med
ian
Resa
le P
rice
Median Price4% Annual Increase
Source: Florida Association of Realtors
Febr
uary
, 200
9
?
Metrostudy Brad Hunter (561) 573-8351
13Miami-Dade County vs. City of Miami
Source: Wikipedia
Metrostudy Brad Hunter (561) 573-8351
14Quarterly Condominium Starts: Miami-Dade County vs. City of Miami
Note: Conversions Not Included
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
5,000
1Q03
2Q
03
3Q03
4Q
03
1Q04
2Q
04
3Q04
4Q
04
1Q05
2Q
05
3Q05
4Q
05
1Q06
2Q
06
3Q06
4Q
06
1Q07
2Q
07
3Q07
4Q
07
1Q08
2Q
08
3Q08
4Q
08
1Q09
Quar
terly
Con
do S
tart
s
Miami-Dade Condo StartsCity of Miami Condo Starts
Metrostudy Brad Hunter (561) 573-8351
15Condo Inventory Comparison: Miami-Dade County vs. City of Miami
Note: Conversions Not Included
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
1Q03
2Q
03
3Q03
4Q
03
1Q04
2Q
04
3Q04
4Q
04
1Q05
2Q
05
3Q05
4Q
05
1Q06
2Q
06
3Q06
4Q
06
1Q07
2Q
07
3Q07
4Q
07
1Q08
2Q
08
3Q08
4Q
08
1Q09
Quar
terly
Con
do In
vent
ory
Miami-Dade Condo InventoryCity of Miami Condo Inventory
Metrostudy Brad Hunter (561) 573-8351
16Quarterly Single Family Starts: Miami-Dade County vs. South Dade*
* South of SW 184th Street
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,0002Q
98
4Q98
2Q99
4Q99
2Q00
4Q00
2Q01
4Q01
2Q02
4Q02
2Q03
4Q03
2Q04
4Q04
2Q05
4Q05
2Q06
4Q06
2Q07
4Q07
2Q08
4Q08
Quar
terly
Con
do S
tart
s
Miami-Dade SF StartsSouth Dade Starts
Metrostudy Brad Hunter (561) 573-8351
17Single Family Finished Vacant Inventory: Miami-Dade County vs. South Dade
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
2Q98
4Q98
2Q99
4Q99
2Q00
4Q00
2Q01
4Q01
2Q02
4Q02
2Q03
4Q03
2Q04
4Q04
2Q05
4Q05
2Q06
4Q06
2Q07
4Q07
2Q08
4Q08
Fini
shed
Vac
ant I
nven
tory
Miami-Dade Finished Vacant InventorySouth Dade Finished Vacant Inventory
Metrostudy Brad Hunter (561) 573-8351
Condos
Metrostudy Brad Hunter (561) 573-8351
The Good Ole Days (Way back in 2004)
• Projects sold out in a weekend• People camped out to be first in
line• There was Panic Buying!• Same group of investors often
rolled from one to the next• Some projects sold first 50% to
investor groups who bought in bulk at a discounted day-one price
Metrostudy Brad Hunter (561) 573-8351
Metrostudy Brad Hunter (561) 573-8351
1,658
776
54
1,428
1,180
1,504
2,760
621
3,265
746
385505
1,863
1,184
654
886
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
1Q04 2Q04 3Q04 4Q04 1Q05 2Q05 3Q05 4Q05 1Q06 2Q06 3Q06 4Q06 1Q07 2Q07 3Q07 4Q07
Qua
rter
ly S
tart
s
Quarterly High-Rise Starts
Large Projects started in 1Q06:Axis: 718 startsIcon at Brickell: 700 starts500 Brickell: 633 startsSkyview Lofts/Infinity: 449 startsPlaza at Brickell: 440 starts1060 Brickell: 262 starts
Condominium Units Started in Downtown Miami by Quarter The “Spike” represents sales from 2004/early 05…
Metrostudy Brad Hunter (561) 573-8351
About the Presenter Brad Hunter, Chief Economist/National Director of Consulting
Brad Hunter spearheads Metrostudy’s current work with the investment community and national developer/builder clients. A large part of his work lately has been with private equity funds, hedge funds, and pension fund advisors. He supervises the bulk of the company’s multi-market studies, and has orchestrated hundreds of site-specific or area-specific housing market studies over the past twenty-plus years. Metrostudy is the nation’s premier advisor on local and regional housing market conditions. With 23 years worth of experience in real estate analysis and local market economic forecasting, Mr. Hunter is a Full Member of the Urban Land Institute, has authored numerous articles and book chapters for ULI, including Market Profiles, and serves on the Housing Market Forecast Panel for the Housing Market Report. He is regularly cited in local and national journals, and has recently been featured in the Wall Street Journal and on Bloomberg News (including Bloomberg’s “On the Money” and “On the Economy” radio shows). He graduated in 1985 from the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania with a degree in economics and has been a guest lecturer at Harvard University. Hunter is a speaker at conferences on real estate opportunities and investing, as well as at ULI conferences, and is frequently called upon by key regulatory agencies of the U.S. government for his insights on the housing sector. Hunter has tracked and forecast housing markets and demographic/economic trends at the local level for 23 years.