Building a Global Flood Observatory (June 26, 2018 Workshop)
• Dr. Sagy Cohen, University of Alabama
• Dr. Robert Brakenridge, Dartmouth Flood Observatory, University of
Colorado
• Dr. John Galantowicz, Atmospheric and Environmental Research, Inc.
(AER)
• Dr. Patrick Matgen Luxembourg Institute of Science and Technology
(LIST)
Pat: Status of SAR flood mapping systems….remaining challenges in
automated and semi-automated SAR-based flood mapping (e.g. detection of
water in built up environments & under vegetated canopies, estimation of return
periods/probabilities of exceedance, selection of "dry" references, assimilation
of flood maps into numerical models, assessment of classification uncertainties
etc.). We need to continue to develop more accurate retrieval algorithms and
compare their results.
John: we are in a golden age of data and the challenge is how to make
automatic use of it all for flood maps. We need metadata…attribution of
uncertainties and blind spots from each source — as well as translation
libraries, i.e., how to make one kind of data look like another kind prior to
merging them. Way forward is for discussion
Lots of Work to be Done!
But…
funding? And how can we
work together towards these
challenges?
Building A Global Flood Observatory
Discuss First: technical challenges. What are the first things needed to
put such a flood prediction, detection, measurement, and mapping system
into operation?
Then on the logistical/practical issues: How is this to be funded? Who can
operate? If many components involved and linked together, how would
various GFP participant organizations participate in building this
envisaged "Global Flood Observatory”?
We need ideas, and some answers as to how to move forward…
Technical Components
Prediction
Detection (location and size)
Monitoring (”events” can last many weeks)
Mapping at various scales
Delivery of these outputs
Recording of mapping results
Technical Components(all automated or semi-automated)
Prediction
GloFAS, UMD GFMS, others
Detection (location and magnitude)
Microwave techniques, GFDS, in situ stations, media, social
media
Monitoring and Mapping (”events” can last many weeks)
MODIS NRT, SAR , High Resolution Sensors
Delivery of these outputs
Recording of mapping results
Logistical Components
Umbrella Organization (consortium)
Each component is automated or semi-automated
From the start, end-users are integral; set up to receive the results.
In-Country or EU funding for each component
But block grant or Overall consortium funding also needed.
Not an organization for meetings, but meetings needed, probably at least annually
Tools such as remote sensing and modeling generate raw information. An
“observatory” is needed to compile, organize, and disseminate such information to
disaster responders and for preservation in an accumulating global flood record.
The Challenge: automated, consistent, sustainable, and continually being improved
Next slide: a quote from the Bulletin of the American Meterological Society, 2010
The article is mostly about advances in forecasting capability, but there is something
very interesting at the end, and highly relevant to the GFP…
“Sagasti (2004) discusses the problems encountered by CFAB in more
general terms. He refers to technological interactions between
developed and less developed nations as a “Sisyphus effect” that
requires continually rebuilding of capacity in the developing
world. “
“When the capacity building is related to information (e.g., the CFAB
forecasts), we argue for a “world is flat” approach: that links
collaboratively the information providers from the developed world with
the information users in the developing world.”
“Once the developing country reaches a certain level of capacity for the
project at hand (e.g., reliable internet band width), then in-country
capacity building can proceed. “
“The envisioned system needs to engage the academic research and
applications community to provide technologies to support the
developing world.”
Given the history, there is evident need to build
international, “always on, always available” systems that
are sustainable, even permanent.
Systems that do not depend, too much, on any nation’s in-
country capability, but remain available through the political
ups and downs, including changes in personnel and, even,
war and revolution.
In today’s world, it does not matter if a hydrological model
and its predictive output is being run in-country or out.
What matters is that it is supported, maintained, improved,
and providing accurate output that can address the
pressing humanitarian and economic needs.
Perhaps the same for certain types of flood imaging and
mapping systems….
Tools such as remote sensing and modeling generate raw information in near real
time. The “Flood Record” is needed to compile, organize, preserve, and disseminate
such information for its use in understanding future flood risk.
The Challenge: automated, consistent, sustainable, and continually being improved
Could funding be gained, for example, if we set up a network of
system components, and each provider sought in-country funding
for an international effort that, after all, would return valuable
information back to each host nation? Or…?
Discussion should focus
first (11:45 to 12:10) on the technical obstacles, work to be done,
and
second on how such work could be supported and sustained
over time to bring online this environmental monitoring capabilty.
GFP: who are we?
o Hydrologic modelers and meteorologists: predicting streamflow in time and space
o Floodplain modelers: predicting flood risk
o Flood mappers and measurers: detecting, measuring, and mapping floods as they occur
o Flood disaster responders: providing food, housing, medical, and other assistance post-flood. Including planning for the future (for example, pre-positioning of supplies and assets)
o The space agencies, including NASA, ESA, JAXA and others: providing the observational infrastructure on which so much is based
o Insurers and reinsurers: providing economic security from flood damage
o Development banks: loan assistance for projects important to sustainable economic progress
Related Effortso CEOS, Committee on Earth Observation Satellites
and the included Disasters WG/DRM Floods Pilot
o CEOS supports GEO, Group on Earth Observations, and GEOSS, the Global Earth Obsevation System
o GEO: for “a future wherein decisions and actions for the benefit of humankind are informed by coordinated, comprehensive and sustained Earth observations and information.” And GEOSS: linking Earth observations world-wide for- agriculture, biodiversity, climate, disasters, ecosystems, energy, health, water and weather, to make them available for decision-making.
o IWG-SEM: International Working Group for Satellite Emergency Mapping: “Supporting disaster response by improving international cooperation in satellite based emergency mapping”
o International Charter For Space and Major Disasters: “providing a unified system of space data acquisition and delivery to those affected by natural or man-made disasters”
“Those who do not
remember the past
are condemned to
repeat it”
George Santayana
Are we on the right
track in avoiding
future catastrophes?
Are bilateral aid
programs, capacity
building, attempts to
support in-country
organizations with
technical capability
all that is needed?
Or do we need
something more: a
state-of-the-art
global infrastrucure?
Global Flood Observatory
• In order to bridge the gap between science and practitioners, the
Partnership will run a collaborative analysis service, called the
Flood Observatory.
• Using the global flood tools and services in a daily roster, a brief
analysis of forecast and detected floods will be made available to
decision makers in civil protection and international aid
organizations.
• In addition, a visualization platform will be established to collect,
integrate, and analyze different services and to disseminate
information to all stakeholders in the Partnership.
From: De Groeve, T., J. Thielen, R. Brakenridge, R. Adler, L. Alfieri, D. Kull,
F. Lindsay, O. Imperiali, F. Pappenberger, R. Rudari, P. Salamon, N. Villars,
and K. Wyjad, 2014, Joining Forces in a Global Flood Partnership. Bull.
Amer. Meteor. Soc. doi:10.1175/BAMS-D-14-00147.1.
Floods Compared to Earthquakes
(on the global scale)
Task Earthquakes Floods
Prediction Not yet possible Experimental, but can be accomplished
Detection Routine, RT Routine from news or in-situ gauging;Experimental from modeling or remote sensing, NRT
Characterization Routine, RT Experimental, NRT
Mapping Experimental, post-quake Routine, NRT
Recording Routine (e.g. IRIS) Experimental, to be done
Risk Assessment Routine Experimental, can be combined with and validate modeling