Calculating the future
Value analysis predicts program progress!
An Excell tool for mid sized programs – no more runaways!
Programs realizestrategicchange
They are lengthy, defined in broad terms, changing during execution
Programs are in runaway danger
• McKinsey: Only 30 percent of change programs succeed
• The Economist, a 2004 survey: 57% of the companies had been unsuccessful in executing on strategic initiatives over the previous three years.
Mid sized programs lack adequate control
The control system relies on project managers estimates and actual costs
No facts, no trends, no coherence
No facts: driving forward looking back
Progress is based on the past, estimates are based on opinions
Real progress is unknown
No trends: Finding the way one inch before your feet
Most control systems show you data at a specific time,
not time based trends
No coherence: Projects and business will interfere
A program is not just a set of independent projects, each on their way
It is the coherence that needs to be managed
Been there, did the tour, got the T-shirt. Lets share!
If you manage by facts, have trend-reporting, and make coherence visible
You can control a mid-sized program
Program Future Calculator
We have created a free Excel spreadsheet for medium sized programs, for a program manager that needs to
create his own control, in a cost oriented environment
Example: Projects in a mid sized program
The usual suspects: multiple projects, startdates, budgets
See next sheet for some more usual data
demoPROJECT ID PROJECT NAME STARTDATE PLANNED
FINISH DATE
BUDGETTED
COSTS
Integral
BUDGETTED
COSTS Time
Based
BUDGETTED
COSTS Cap
Inv
Project Totals € 16,948 € 11,750 € 5,198
7 Example, Finished on time in budget 2-jan-12 20-jun-12 € 1,215 € 810 € 405
31 Example, finished too late over budget 11-feb-12 21-mei-12 € 1,380 € 920 € 460
22 Example, cap invest overspent 22-mrt-12 7-nov-12 € 1,620 € 1,080 € 540
34 Example, too late on budget 1-apr-12 7-okt-12 € 1,418 € 945 € 473
56 Example, on time over budget 1-apr-12 8-sep-12 € 1,125 € 750 € 375
78 Example, premature close 11-mei-12 8-okt-12 € 1,013 € 675 € 338
65 Example, planned over the year 20-jun-12 25-feb-13 € 1,823 € 1,215 € 608
32 Example, running late over the year 21-mei-12 18-okt-12 € 1,088 € 725 € 363
23 Example, no Cap Inv 30-jun-12 27-nov-12 € 675 € 675 € -
5757 Example, capital investment underspent 22-mrt-12 7-nov-12 € 2,900 € 2,160 € 740
543 Future project 1 1-sep-12 10-dec-12 € 810 € 540 € 270
876 Future project 2 15-nov-12 23-feb-13 € 870 € 580 € 290
392923 Late project 1-mrt-12 29-jul-12 € 1,013 € 675 € 338
Example contd.: Actuals on these projects
Nothing new so far, just a spreadsheetBut now we start the magic
Magic 1: % ready
% ready, as agreed upon up front, based on factsThis allows Value Analysis based predictions
Magic 2: trends
Excel at its best: time based graphs So patterns are visible, based on actuals and Value Analysis
Magic 3: Coherence
Seeing where you are and where you are headedTo avoid collisions with others
Program control:Facts, trends, coherence
Download this spreadsheet at www.dicuore.nl
Or at LinkedIn company page diCuoreThe Program Future Calculator
Deliberately left blank
Some more screenshots of the Program Future Calculator
In one fgure: the budget, actuals and a prognosis
Project portfolio
Cash flowneed of the project portfolio
Addaptive Program Budget
Because budget cuts and creative funding exist
Program Budget
Source
TOTAL
PROGRAM
BUDGET
TOTAL PROGRAM
BUDGET THIS YEAR
TOTAL PROGRAM
BUDGET NEXT YEAR
TOTAL PROGRAM
BUDGET
€ 17,230 € 10,710 € 6,520
1 BUDGT SOURCE 1 19,350€ 12,000€ 7,350€
2 BUDGET SOURCE 2 630€ 210€ 420€
3 BUDGET SOURCE 3 300€ 300€ -€
4 BUDGET CUT 1 (1,500)€ (1,500)€ -€
5 BUDGET CUT 2 (300)€ (300)€ -€
6 Budget cut next year (1,250)€ -€ (1,250)€
Independent Program vs Projects Portfolio budget
Because projects appear out of nowhere to enter your program
Clear overview of status
Because Steering Committees are pressed for time
Prognoses
To control in stead of to react andrepair
Facts, trends and coherence:Program Future Calculator