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Can Cardiff Feed itself?
P-POD & Cardiff Transition
present
60% of its vegetables60% of its vegetables [1][1]
95% of its fruit95% of its fruit [1][1]
Most of the wheat in our breadMost of the wheat in our bread [2][2]
Currently the UK importsCurrently the UK imports
[1]DEFRA 2005[2]http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/life_and_style/food_and_drin
k/real_food/article6098277.ece
So given that we are so heavilySo given that we are so heavily
dependent on imported fooddependent on imported food
What would happen?What would happen?
if we had a sudden shutif we had a sudden shut
down of oil suppliesdown of oil supplies
couldCard
iff
fee
ditself?
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In August 2000 farmers and truckIn August 2000 farmers and truck
drivers angered by the rising cost ofdrivers angered by the rising cost of
fuel were blockading fuel depotsfuel were blockading fuel depots
across the country.across the country.
In Whitehall civil servants & politicians were toldIn Whitehall civil servants & politicians were told
that the shelves of all of the biggest supermarketsthat the shelves of all of the biggest supermarketswould be empty in 3 days.would be empty in 3 days.
In effect we were
9 meals away from anarchyLord Cameron of Dillington, former head of the Countryside Agency
In 2005 Hurricane Katrina devastatedIn 2005 Hurricane Katrina devastatedthe city of New Orleans.the city of New Orleans.
The days that followed saw widespread looting ofThe days that followed saw widespread looting offood by people desperate to feed themselves andfood by people desperate to feed themselves andtheir families.their families.
This was in the richest countryThis was in the richest country in the world.in the world.
And an internal strike orAnd an internal strike or
blockade will be resolvedblockade will be resolvedeventuallyeventually
But with our country so heavilyBut with our country so heavilydependent on food importsdependent on food importswhat happens when a hungrywhat happens when a hungryworld stops exporting?world stops exporting?
It is unlikely that we willIt is unlikely that we willexperience a Hurricaneexperience a HurricaneKatrina in Britain.Katrina in Britain.
Unprecedented droughts and unseasonable rainsUnprecedented droughts and unseasonable rains
More land being used to produce biofuelsMore land being used to produce biofuels
An increasing demand for a more energy intensive dietAn increasing demand for a more energy intensive diet
Declining world food stockpilesDeclining world food stockpiles
Investments in food commodities decreasedInvestments in food commodities decreased
In 2008 a complex perfect storm ofIn 2008 a complex perfect storm ofcolliding events resulted in a worldcolliding events resulted in a world
grain shortage.grain shortage.
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Because of the shortages severalBecause of the shortages several
grain producing countries acrossgrain producing countries across
the world decided to stop or restrictthe world decided to stop or restrict
the exporting of their grain.the exporting of their grain.
What if this perfect stormWhat if this perfect stormof colliding events changesof colliding events changesfrom the unusualfrom the unusualto the norm?to the norm?
How does Cardiff withstand this type ofHow does Cardiff withstand this type of
shock to its own food security?shock to its own food security?
Could Cardiff Feed Itself?Could Cardiff Feed Itself?
Some important statsSome important stats
In 2010 Cardiff Unitary Authority areaspopulation was estimated to be just over 340,000
Cardiff has very few areas of agricultural land and
because of this could not in itself within its ownboundaries ever feed itself
However, the rest of Wales is far less populatedand with far more agricultural land available, soreframing the question to Can Wales FeedCardiff (and itself)? improves the outlookconsiderably
PhD student Amber Wheeler is researching the question
Could and Should Wales Feed Itself?.
pilot analysis on St Davids Peninsula
latest research into a healthy diet done by WWF and the
Rowett Institute
This diet is called The Livewell 2020 diet.
The Livewell 2020 diet is the first diet analysis that
combines healthy living and minimising greenhouse gas
emissions.
Using this diet Amber has created a formula where 1
organic hectare will feed 4.6 people.
Current researchCurrent research
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The LiveWell 2020 DietThe LiveWell 2020 Diet
Source: http://plantedcity.tumblr.com/post/3021421240/ food-
for-a-future-the-livewell-2020-diet-an
The LiveWell 2020 DietThe LiveWell 2020 Diet
Source: http://plantedcity.tumblr.com/post/3021421240/ food-
for-a-future-the-livewell-2020-diet-an
Some more important statsSome more important stats
Wales has population of just over3,000,000 people
Its land mass is over 2,000,000hectares, of which 13.4% is beingused for arable (DEFRA 2002)
Therefore approximately 270,000hectares are deemed suitable forgrowing a range of crops
Most of the rest is deemed suitablefor grazing (DEFRA 2002)
Based on the LiveWell 2020 diet, Amber hasBased on the LiveWell 2020 diet, Amber hasdeveloped a formula where 1 organic hectare willdeveloped a formula where 1 organic hectare will
feed 4.6 people.feed 4.6 people.
Another way of putting this is about 1/5 organicAnother way of putting this is about 1/5 organic
hectare will feed 1 person.hectare will feed 1 person.
Of this 1/5 organic hectare, just over half is neededOf this 1/5 organic hectare, just over half is needed
for arable (0.119 of a hectare) and just under half isfor arable (0.119 of a hectare) and just under half is
needed for pasture (0.098 of a hectare).needed for pasture (0.098 of a hectare).
Some of the arable is used for growing food forSome of the arable is used for growing food for
animals as well as humans.animals as well as humans.
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Some more important statsSome more important stats
population x hectares / head3,000,000 x 0.119 hectares
= 357,000 hectares required
270,000 hectares available
LetLets do the mathss do the maths
Arable landArable land
87,000 shortfall
3,000,000 x 0.098 hectares= 294,000 hectares required1,650,000 hectares available
Some more important statsSome more important stats
population x hectares / head
LetLets do the mathss do the maths
Grazing landGrazing land
1,356,000 surplus
Some conclusionsSome conclusions
Potential Options:
There are opportunities hereto re-examine this use of land
and look at a more diverse
usage. These could include
looking at the potential of:
So Wales produces a surplus of meat for itsneeds but has a possible shortfall of justover 1/3rd for its fruit, veg & grain requirements.
Wales & the UK has in the past
been much more heavily forested
There is proven potential toestablish edible forestgardens in areas notdeemed suitable for arableproduction.
edible forest gardens
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less sheep per hectare
If less sheep were grazed there
would be less need to feed them
supplementary food grown on
arable land.
http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/statistics_explained/index.php?title=File:
Grassland,_by_NUTS_2_regions,_2005_Hectares_per_1_000_hectares_of_total_area.PNG&filetimestamp=20090430100002
a shift from cowsmilk to sheeps milk
Cows are grazed on flatter areas
than sheep if we consumed
more sheep's milk than cows milk
than we could free up more land
for growing crops for people.
http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/statistics_explained/index.php?title=File:
Grassland,_by_NUTS_2_regions,_2005_Hectares_per_1_000_hectares_of_total_area.PNG&filetimestamp=20090430100002
Further potential lies in urban spaces
and back gardens to provide fruit and
veg.
Rob Miller