CanadaCanada’’ssGun Registry:Gun Registry:
Should it be Scrapped? Or can itShould it be Scrapped? Or can itbe Fixed?be Fixed?
Fraser Institute Policy BriefingFraser Institute Policy Briefing
January 22, 2004January 22, 2004
Gary MauserGary MauserProfessorProfessor
Canadian Institute for Urban Research StudiesCanadian Institute for Urban Research Studies
Faculty of Business AdministrationFaculty of Business Administration
Simon Fraser UniversitySimon Fraser University
Some promises:Some promises:
ÿÿ ““The goal of the new regulations is The goal of the new regulations is …… to help to helpkeep Canada safekeep Canada safe…… [and]to prevent violence. [and]to prevent violence.””ll Allan Rock, Justice Minister, Nov. 27, 1996Allan Rock, Justice Minister, Nov. 27, 1996
ÿÿ ““..the Firearms Program is..the Firearms Program is improv improv((inging) public) publicsafety in Canada.safety in Canada.””ll MartinMartin Cauchon Cauchon, Justice Minister, Dec. 3, 2002, Justice Minister, Dec. 3, 2002
ÿÿ ““The goal of the (firearms) program is toThe goal of the (firearms) program is toprotect Canadians from violenceprotect Canadians from violence…”…”ll Public Safety Minister Anne Public Safety Minister Anne McLellanMcLellan, Jan. 2004, Jan. 2004
Homicides Since 1995Homicides Since 1995
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
Freq
uenc
ies
total homicideshomicides w/firearmshomicides w/handguns
AGAG’’s Minimum Estimateds Minimum EstimatedCostCost
$0
$200,000,000
$400,000,000
$600,000,000
$800,000,000
$1,000,000,000
$1,200,000,000
Original Estimate Department of Justice
Why so much?Why so much?
ÿÿ There were There were ‘‘virtually no recordsvirtually no records’’,,ll Auditor GeneralAuditor General
ÿÿ Back door financingBack door financing
ÿÿ Secrecy breeds unaccountabilitySecrecy breeds unaccountability
ÿÿ RCMP is now investigatingRCMP is now investigating
Limitations of the AGLimitations of the AG’’s Reports Report
ÿÿ ““We stopped our audit when an initialWe stopped our audit when an initialreview indicated that there were significantreview indicated that there were significantshortcomings in the information provided.shortcomings in the information provided.We concluded that the information doesWe concluded that the information doesnot fairly represent the cost of the programnot fairly represent the cost of the programto government.to government.””ll Auditor General Sheila Fraser, Dec. 2002Auditor General Sheila Fraser, Dec. 2002
What about PartnersWhat about Partners’’ Costs? Costs?Another 1.5 BillionAnother 1.5 Billion
$ -
$200,000,000
$400,000,000
$600,000,000
$800,000,000
$1,000,000,000
$1,200,000,000
$1,400,000,000
$1,600,000,000
Department of Justice Cooperating Departments, Agencies, Provinces andTerritories
Total Costs as of 2004Total Costs as of 2004
ÿÿ 1 billion for Department of Justice1 billion for Department of Justice[minimum][minimum]
ÿÿ 1.5 billion for cooperating Agencies and1.5 billion for cooperating Agencies andProvinces and Territories [estimate]Provinces and Territories [estimate]
ÿÿ Gun owners have paid more than $550Gun owners have paid more than $550million to comply with regulationsmillion to comply with regulations
Another Billion forAnother Billion forEnforcementEnforcement
$0
$200,000,000
$400,000,000
$600,000,000
$800,000,000
$1,000,000,000
$1,200,000,000
$1,400,000,000
$1,600,000,000
Department of Justice Cooperating Departments, Agencies,Provinces and Territories
Enforcement
How Much More Will it Cost?How Much More Will it Cost?
ÿÿ Another 1 Billion for EnforcementAnother 1 Billion for Enforcement
ÿÿ It is unknown how much it will cost toIt is unknown how much it will cost tocomplete owner complete owner licencing licencing and firearmand firearmregistrationregistration
The RCMP Lacks ConfidenceThe RCMP Lacks Confidencein the Registryin the Registry
ÿÿ 19 breaches of CPIC19 breaches of CPICÿÿ People known to have violent records may havePeople known to have violent records may have
been issued a firearm been issued a firearm licencelicenceÿÿ CFC stopped checking applicants in order toCFC stopped checking applicants in order to
save moneysave moneyÿÿ 4,438 stolen firearms successfully re-registered4,438 stolen firearms successfully re-registeredÿÿ Attempts to trace 101,000 stolen firearms foundAttempts to trace 101,000 stolen firearms found
250,000 matching serial numbers250,000 matching serial numbers
Are We Safer?Are We Safer?
ÿÿ Total homicides have gone from 588 inTotal homicides have gone from 588 in1995 to 582 in 20021995 to 582 in 2002
ÿÿ Domestic homicides have increased fromDomestic homicides have increased from177 in 1995 to 182 in 2002177 in 1995 to 182 in 2002
ÿÿ Firearm homicides have decreased fromFirearm homicides have decreased from176 in 1995 to 149 in 2002176 in 1995 to 149 in 2002
ÿÿ Handgun homicides have gone from 95 inHandgun homicides have gone from 95 in1995 to 98 in 20021995 to 98 in 2002
What do the Police Think?What do the Police Think?
ÿÿ ““The difficulty of course is that we havenThe difficulty of course is that we haven’’t yett yetcome across any situation where the guncome across any situation where the gunregistry would have enabled us to either preventregistry would have enabled us to either preventor solve any of these crimes.or solve any of these crimes.””ll Toronto Police Chief Julian Toronto Police Chief Julian Fantino Fantino (Jan 6, 2003)(Jan 6, 2003)
ÿÿ “…“… we need more police officers. This we need more police officers. This isis not notrocket science.rocket science.””ll Vancouver Police Chief Jamie Graham (Jan. 22,Vancouver Police Chief Jamie Graham (Jan. 22,
2004).2004).
Homicide Rates DecliningHomicide Rates DecliningFaster in the United StatesFaster in the United States
Homicide Rates in Canada and the United States
-
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
3.00
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000
Sources: Firearm Stats, DOJ, 2000; FBI, Index of Crime, 2003
Ca
na
da
pe
r 1
00
,00
0 p
op
ula
tio
n
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
Un
ite
d S
tate
s p
er
10
0,0
00
p
op
ula
tio
n
CDNUS
Violent Crime Growing inViolent Crime Growing inCanadaCanada
Violent Crime Rates in Canada and the United States
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001
Sources: Juristat, 2002; FBI, 2002
Off
ence
s pe
r 100
,000
pop
ulat
ion
CDNUS
Suicide Rate Higher inSuicide Rate Higher inCanadaCanada
Comparing Canadian and US Suicide Rates
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000
Source: US: National DHHS; Canada: Stats Can
Tota
l sui
cide
per
100
,000
pop
ulat
ion
USACanada
Firearm Deaths Decline, ButFirearm Deaths Decline, ButTotal Suicides StableTotal Suicides Stable
Firearms and Suicide in Canada
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
Year
To
tal
Su
icid
e R
ate
pe
r 1
00
,00
0
po
pu
lati
on
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
Fir
ea
rm S
uic
ide
Ra
te p
er
10
0,0
00
p
op
ula
tio
n
Total Suicide RateFirearm Suicide Rate
Lack of Public SupportLack of Public Support
ÿÿ 5 provinces and all 3 territories refuse to5 provinces and all 3 territories refuse toadminister the firearms programadminister the firearms program
ÿÿ 8 provinces refuse to enforce the act8 provinces refuse to enforce the act
ÿÿ Half of owners refuse to get a Half of owners refuse to get a licencelicence
ÿÿ Half of all firearms are registeredHalf of all firearms are registered
ÿÿ Ten percent of Native Canadians have aTen percent of Native Canadians have afirearm firearm licencelicence
Firearms Act Does NotFirearms Act Does NotAim at CriminalsAim at Criminals
ÿÿ Law-abiding firearm owners are required toLaw-abiding firearm owners are required toreport change of address within 30 days or risk areport change of address within 30 days or risk atwo-year jail sentencetwo-year jail sentence
ÿÿ The Firearms Act does NOT require theThe Firearms Act does NOT require thefollowing classes to report a change of address:following classes to report a change of address:
ÿÿ 131,000 convicted criminals who have been131,000 convicted criminals who have beenprohibited from owing firearmsprohibited from owing firearms
ÿÿ 36,000 persons with active restraining orders36,000 persons with active restraining ordersÿÿ 9,000 persons with refused/revoked firearm9,000 persons with refused/revoked firearm
licenceslicences
The Firearms Act is Off TargetThe Firearms Act is Off Target
ÿÿ Licencing Licencing and registration is misdirectedand registration is misdirected
ÿÿ Normal people do not commit violentNormal people do not commit violentcrimescrimes
The Firearms Act is Off TargetThe Firearms Act is Off Target
ÿÿ Two-thirds of those accused of murderTwo-thirds of those accused of murderhad a criminal recordhad a criminal record
ÿÿ 73% of those had a previous conviction for73% of those had a previous conviction fora violent offence (and 8 for murder)a violent offence (and 8 for murder)
ÿÿ Over half of murder victims had a criminalOver half of murder victims had a criminalrecordrecord
ÿÿ In Vancouver, 6 robbers commit 43% ofIn Vancouver, 6 robbers commit 43% ofbank robberies bank robberies (Van Sun, Jan 22, 2004)(Van Sun, Jan 22, 2004)
ConclusionsConclusions
ÿÿ Should scrap the firearm registryShould scrap the firearm registry
ÿÿ Licencing Licencing and registration are off targetand registration are off target
ÿÿ Should focus on violent criminalsShould focus on violent criminals
Should Target ViolentShould Target ViolentCriminals Criminals
ÿÿ Longer prison terms for violent offendersLonger prison terms for violent offenders
ÿÿMonitor parolees more thoroughlyMonitor parolees more thoroughly
ÿÿMonitor violent offenders who have beenMonitor violent offenders who have beenordered deportedordered deported
ÿÿ Reinstate the Ports PoliceReinstate the Ports Police
ÿÿ Screen incoming mail more thoroughlyScreen incoming mail more thoroughly
Property Crime Higher inProperty Crime Higher inCanadaCanada
Property Crime in Canada and the United States
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001
Sources: Juristat, 2002; FBI, 2002
Off
ence
s pe
r 100
,000
pop
ulat
ion
CDNUS
Are Gun OwnersAre Gun OwnersCooperating?Cooperating?
Cooperation of Canadian Gun Owners
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
CFC (2004) DOJ (1998) 4 M estimate 5 M estimate
How many gun owners are there?
Native Canadians are NotNative Canadians are NotCooperatingCooperatingNative and Non-Native Cooperation
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
4 M estimate 5 M estimate Natives