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development dialogue
no. 48 september 2006
a critical conversationon climate change,
privatisation and power
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Guest editor and authorLarry Lohmann
EditorsNiclas Hllstrm
Olle NordbergRobert sterbergh
Sub-editorWendy Davies
Production editorsMattias LassonGerd Ryman-Ericson
Design and layoutMattias Lasson
PrintersMediaprintUddevalla, Sweden,September 2006
Subscribers are kindly requested toinorm the Dag Hammarskjld Centreo any changes o address or subscriptioncancellations.
Editorial Of ceThe Dag Hammarskjld Centrevre Slottsgatan 2SE-753 10 Uppsala, Sweden
Fax: +46-(0)18-12 20 72E-mail: [email protected]: www.dh.uu.se
The opinions expressed in the journal
are those o the authors and do notnecessarily reect the views o the DagHammarskjld Foundation.
ISSN 0345-2328
Larry Lohmannworkswith the Corner House,a small research and soli-darity organisation in theUK. He is the co-author oPulping the South: Industrial
Tree Plantations and the World Paper Economy(with Ricardo Carrere, 1996) and WhoseCommon Future? Reclaiming the Commons(with Simon Fairlie, Nicholas Hildyard
and Sarah Sexton, 1993), and co-editor oThe Struggle for Land and the fate of the Forests
(with Marcus Colchester, 1993). Since then,he has published articles and book chapterson climate change, land rights, globalisation,racism, orest conicts, development,environmental change in Southeast Asia andthe politics o cost-benet analysis. Duringthe 1980s he lived and worked in Thailand,
most o the time with non-governmentalorganisations.
Website: www.thecornerhouse.org.uk
This issue oDevelopment Dialogueis thesecond in a series oWhat Nextprojectpublications. It also orms part o a new phasein the journals history. Development Dialoguehas been given a resh look - a new coverdesign and a new layout. At the same time weare introducing a new and simpler numberingsystem, consisting o a running number alongwith month and year o publication. Thisissue is No. 48 in the series o issues published
since 1972. The length oDevelopment Dialogueissues may vary more than beore. We hopethe new design o the journal will meetwith readers approval.
Development Dialoguewill continue toprovide a space or pioneering ideas, andthe essential character o the journal willremain unchanged.
This issue oDevelopment Dialogueis publishedin cooperation with the Corner House.
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Eitoil ote 3
Chpte 1 Itoctio A ew oil el cii 5
Chpte 2 Me i the USA A hot hitoy o cbo tig 31
Chpte 3 Leo lee Polltio tig ile 71
Popety ight pivtitio 73
Emiio tig v. tctl chge 101
The pecil poblem o cbo poject 137
Whee the eocemet? 187
Nowig the icio 190
Smmig p Mket ieology v. climte ctio 198
Chpte 4 Ofet The oil ecoomy ew e o coict 219
The begiig A toy om Gteml 222
Fom the Nethel to the Ae A tle om Eco 226
The toy cotie Cbo oety i Ug 237
Cot Ric Eviometl evice pioee 247
Ii A tte o the te 255
Si Lk A cle eegy poject tht w ot o cle 273
Thil Biom i the evice o the col g ecoomy 280
Soth Aic Cbo ceit om the citie 287
Bil Hot o epeio l 302Photo Essay Plt v. locl people Two veio o hitoy 309
Chpte 5 Wy ow 329
Appeix The Db Decltio o cbo tig 356
Cotet
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Eitoil Note
It i ow ccepte wolwie tht the globe i wmig to ch extet
tht the livelihoo o lge wthe o the wol popltio e e
eio thet. Violet eqet tom weck people hbitt; -peictble wethe ticlly chge coitio o giclte; ew
helth thet emege. A elt, wee o globl wmig i i-
ceigly iecig thikig i both the Soth the Noth.
The ioy i, howeve, tht ome o the epoe to the globl thet
o climte chge e l ikely to ce ew evee poblem, which,
i wot-ce ceio, col ctlly icee globl wmig. A
thi pecil epot how, thi eem to be the ce with cbo t-
ig gioe mket cheme et p the wol pimy e-
poe to the cii o climte chge.The mi ce o globl wmig i pily iceig cbo iox-
ie emiio pimily the elt o big oil el epite
itetiol geemet to ece ch emiio. The toble i tht
epite beig we o the eio ittio, vey ew eciio-mke
e ey to tckle the poblem t it oot. Ite o ecig the
extctio o oil el echig o othe oltio, cet
cbo-tig policie, i pctice, vo the the exploittio o
thee el. Fthemoe, ew tee plttio, which e clime
me o mitigtig the coeqece o icee cbo ioxiepolltio, ote ive people ot o thei titiol livig go
etoy biologicl iveity.
Thi pecil epot om pt o the Dg Hmmkjl Fotio
What Nextpoject. It oce o cbo tig i itee to i-ece cet climte politic. I the ebte o the Kyoto Potocol
ew cto hve expee citicl view. It i high time, o the p-
poe o ebte policy-mkig, to pt the potlight o the coe
poblem oil el extctio comptio.
Thi pblictio, theeoe, tke bo look t evel imeio ocbo tig. It lye the poblem iig om the emegig globl
cbo mket petiig to the eviomet, ocil jtice hm
ight, ivetigte climte mitigtio ltetive. It povie hot
hitoy o cbo tig ice mbe o leo lee.
Nie ce tie om ifeet pt o the wol povie exmple o
the otcome o the go o vio cbo ofet cheme.
The pblictio poject h mte ove time. It w t ice
i coectio with ely Dg Hmmkjl What Nextemi
i Jly 2001 o Aeig Notechology Othe EmegigTechologie i the ETC Cety.
The eito mi tho, Ly Lohm, who wok with The
Coe Hoe mll eech oliity ogitio locte
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editorial note 3
i Doet, UK poite the Fotio to the iceig coce
bot cbo tig the ee o coolitio o citicl pe-
pective. A elt, the Dg Hmmkjl Fotio, i col-lbotio with evel othe civil ociety ogitio, ogie
itetiol emi i Soth Aic i Octobe 2004. The emi
le to the Db Decltio o Climte Jtice gve ie to
the Db Gop o Climte Jtice, which i ow plyig i-
ceigly impott ole i climte politic. The meetig w lo
the ttig poit o the witig o thi epot. At vio time i
2005 2006, Ly Lohm woke o the poject t the Dg
Hmmkjl Fotio Schol-i-Reiece.
Membe o the Db Gop hve plye impott ole i thepoce by cotibtig to commetig o the text. A ite-
tiol etwok o iepeet ogitio, iivil people
movemet, the Db Gop i committe to helpig bil glo-
bl goot movemet o climte jtice, mobiliig commitie
o the wol plegig oliity with people oppoig c-
bo tig o the go.
Thi pecil epot i thoogh, well-ocmete wok, the ppoe
o which i to ipie citicl -echig icio. Althogh the
topic i complex, it i o hope tht the welth o iomtio the epotcoti the iloge om i which it i witte will cotibte to
boe etig o the poblem eepe eggemet i oe
o the mot impott ie o o time.
* * *
The Fotio What Nextpoject, o which thi pecil epot ipt, im to cotibte to the icio o ccil evelopmet ie
i the ext ew ece. A ivee gop o cocee people h come
togethe to egge i itee iloge. The poject i eqel to the
Fotio What Now: Another Developmentiititive o 1975.
The What Nextelibetio e beig compile i evel pblic-tio. I itio to thi pecil epot, thee will be mbe o
volme oWhat Nextppe. The t, etitle Setting the Context,w pblihe i Jly 2006. Volme II III will ollow. The WhatNext Report 2005-2035, to be pblihe beoe the e o 2006, wo the mjo ebte o the What Nextpoce. It peet mbeo poible ceio o the ext thee ece, icle coce
bot vio oltio to climte chge ch lge-cle geo-
egieeig cheme techologicl xe to the poblem.
Olle Nordberg, Niclas Hllstrm, Robert sterbergh
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Chpte 1
ItoctioA ew oil el cii
In which the growing climate crisis is traced mainly to the mining o coal,oil and gas; the dangers to survival and livelihood are outlined; the politicalnature and implications o the problem explored; and reasonable andunreasonable solutions sketched.
Weve all heard about climate change. But is it really something we need to beworried about?
Ye. The climtic tbility tht hm hve gow e to ove the
lt ew cetie my be eig ooe th we thik. The elt
e likely to icle iteie oght oo, chge wethe
ptte, gicltl bekow, ecoytem iptio, iig e
level, epiemic, ocil bekow tht ltimtely thete the
live o livelihoo o he o mill io o people.
Whats the cause?
Like my othe ocil poblem, climte chge i cloely tie to
the big o oil, col g. Foil cbo i beig tke ot o
the go, thogh combtio chmbe, tee to
moe ctive pily cicltig cbo pool i the i, oce,
vegettio oil. Some o thi ctive cbo bil p i the t-
mophee i the om o cbo ioxie, tppig moe o the
het, wmig the eth etbiliig the climte. The cbobil-p p to 90 pe cet o which h come om the Noth h
bee me woe, epecilly ove the lt cety, by checke l
clece the pe o itil giclte.1
The i clty i tht oil cbo i lot eie to b th it i to
mke. It took millio o ye o plt to extct the cbo om
the tmophee tht mke p toy col, oil g epoit. It
tkig oly ew cetie to b it. Toy, the wol combt 400
ye woth o thi ccmlte, compee biologicl mtte evey
ye,2 thee to o time moe th i 1950. Thi cbo will ot beble to lock itel ely p ego gi col, oil o g o
my, my millei.
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6 development dialogue september 2006 carbon trading
Arent there any other ways that the earth can reabsorb this carbon?
Ye, bt they tke eve loge. The wetheig o ilicte ock
ie by wte the ctivity o plt emove ome cbo i-
oxie om the tmophee. Cbote ccmltig o the e oo
thogh wetheig, of o the ccmltio o cbo i the
hell o livig ogim e evetlly phe e cotietl
plte t oce ege, ig thei wy to the tmophee gi i
volcic ctivity. Thi poce, tkig mill io o ye, it goig to
olve the cet cii.
So the carbon that comes out o the ground stays out o the ground.
Fo vey log time. A oce it mke it wy to the ce i big
eogh qtitie, thee o wy o toppig it om bilig p i
the tmophee. Beoe the itil evoltio beg thee wee
oly o 580 billio toe o cbo i the tmophee. Toy
the ge i cloe to 750 billio toe the highet i he o
tho o ye.
Why cant trees absorb enough carbon dioxide to keep it out o the air?
Tee c bob ome o it. So c the wol oce, g, oil
eh wte. Bt they ct bob eogh o it, t eogh, to keep
it om ccmltig i the tmophee. No c they hol oto it
o vey log. Oce bove go, cbo cottly ow bck
oth mog vegettio, wte, oil i.
The oce, o itce, c tke p jt o mch o the ew cbo
poig p om ego. They hve ley bobe thi
o thei ltimte potetil, the ew cbo ioxie iolvig i
them i tig them moe ci.3
Figure 1. Human-caused CO2 build-up in the oceans is concentrated in the North Atlantic.
Source: US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.
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introduction a new fossil fuel crisis 7
Plt oil e eve moe limite eceptcle o oil cbo
th the oce. Thei toge potetil i le th the cbo
cotet o the col, oil g till ego (ee Tble 1). Livig e biom hol o the oe o 2,000 billio toe o cbo,
while oil el compie e til l plig to te o twice
mch oil cbo to the ce. I itio, plt oil c
oly hol oto cbo o hot while beoe eleig it gi to
the i, wte o oil. Filly, how mch cbo l vegettio will
bob o emit i the te i highly ceti.4
So the above-ground carbon pool in the oceans, vegetation and soil is like a
bathtub with the drain plugged. As long as the tap stays on, the water justkeeps overfowing.
Ye. O to mke wht might be lightly bette compio, yo
might look t the eth bove-go cbo-cyclig cpcity,
mi the tmophee, mpig go tht h the bility to
ecycle ceti mot o the wte tht i pt ito it, bt o moe.
Accoig to oe etimte, betwee 1850 1995, totl o 368
billio toe o cbo wee elee globlly ito the tmophee
thogh hm ctivitie. Some 208 billio toe wee bobe
ito the oce ito vegettio oil, levig ext 160 bil-lio toe i the tmophee.7
Table 1. The Earth s Carbon Pools (billion tonnes)
Atmosphere 720-760
Oceans 38,400-40,000
Rock (mainly underground) 75,000,000
Land biosphereliving biomass 600-1,000
dead biomass 1,200
Fresh water 1-2
Fossil fuels
coal 3,510
oil 230
gas 140other 250
Annual transfer of fossil carbonto above ground carbon pools
7+
Sources: P. Falkowski et al., The Global Carbon Cycle: A Test of Our Knowledge of
Earth as System, Science 290, 13 October 2000; US Energy Information Administra-
tion. Estimates of the amount of unmined fossil fuels are all highly controversial. Much
higher estimates for oil (670 billion tonnes) and gas (503 billion tonnes) are given, forexample, by Hans-Holger Rogner.5 The US Geological Survey estimates about 360 bil-
lion tonnes of carbon to lie in recoverable oil.6
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8 development dialogue september 2006 carbon trading
Figure 2. Atmospheric carbon
Source: World Resources Institute
The cet te o ccmltio i the tmophee i ove 1.6 extbillio toe o cbo evey ye. A o cet te, my
time moe oil cbo will be e to the tmophee ove thi
cety th h bee e ice the itil e beg.
What would have to be done to stop the overfow?
Well, thee ley moe cbo ioxie i the tmophee th
thee h bee t y othe time i the lt hl millio ye 380
pt pe mill io, compe to pe-itil level o 280 pt pe
millio.8 So lot o mge h ley bee oe.
Accoig to the Itegovemetl Pel o Climte Chge
(IPCC) i 1990, i oe to tbilie tmopheic cocettio t
level le th oble tht o peitil time, geehoe g
emiio wol hve to be ece by 6080 pe cet.
So at present were acting as i we have something like two and a hal to vetimes the amount o carbon dump space than we really have.
Well, it pobbly ot poible to etimte with y cetity theeth cpcity to ecycle te o oil cbo with o emi-
e. Bt thee o qetio tht the cet te o oveow i hge.
400
380
360
340
320
300
280
260
240
220
200
1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000
Source: Scripps, ORNL, and IPCC
Parts Per Millions By Volume
Atmospheric Concentrations ofCarbon Dioxide, year 1000-2003
8,000
7,000
6,000
5,000
4,000
3,000
2,000
1,000
0
1750 1800 1850 1900 1950 2000
Source: Worldwatch, ORNL, BP
Million Tons Carbon Equivalent
Global Carbon Emissions fromFossil Fuel Burning, year 1751-2003
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introduction a new fossil fuel crisis 9
And this is denitely the main cause o climate change?
The Uite Ntio Itegovemetl Pel o Climte Chge,
pehp the mot petigio boy o climte cietit eve em-
ble, cocle tht mot o the obeve wmig o the lt 50 ye
i likely to be e to the icee i geehoe g cocettio
e to hm ctivitie.
But isnt there a lot o controversy about that?
Not mch. The IPCC jgemet i ow ppote by the US N-
tiol Acemy o Sciece, Bil Acemi e Cieci, Chi
Acemy o Sciece, the UK Royl Society, Fce Acmie e
Sciece, Gemy Akemie e Ntoche Leopoli, Ii
Ntiol Sciece Acemy, the Sciece Cocil o Jp, the Ri
Acemy o Sciece, Itly Accemi Niole ei Licei, the
Ameic Meteoologicl Society, the Ameic Geophyicl Uio,
C Royl Society the Ameic Aocitio o the A-
vcemet o Sciece.9 Thee o iet om it i y o 928 pee-
eviewe cietic ey o globl climte chge pblihe betwee
1993 2003.10 A the ew emiig coty bit o eviece hve
bee petty mch explie wy ove the lt cople o ye. Fo ex-
mple, the oce hve wme i wy tht vitlly le ot cyclicvitio i ol eegy expltio.11
OK, give me the bad news. What happens i the worlds above-ground carbondump goes on overfowing into the atmosphere?
At ome poit the bilp o cbo ioxie othe geehoe
ge i the tmophee will chge the climte cttophiclly. A
biologit Tim Fley ote, Thee i o mch cbo bie i the
wol col em [loe] tht, hol it it wy bck to the -
ce, it wol mke the plet hotile to lie we kow it.12
Com-btio o eve bttil ctio o emiig oil el eve
ew moe he billio toe col be ito.13
How bad is the situation now?
It h to tell wht the ltimte efect will be, bece the ext
geehoe g ley i the i will hve log-tem efect, ot
ll o which e eviet toy. Globl vege tempete hve
icee by oly 0.7 egee Cetige ice the mi-1800. To
be e, ome chge ote ttibte to globl wmig e l-ey oticeble. Fo exmple, ill i mi- to high ltite
h icee, Actic commitie e iceigly thetee by
cotl eoio mge htig teitoie, Actic e ice
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10 development dialogue september 2006 carbon trading
pemot i wilig, te i gowig o plt i-
ml pecie gig om pol be to btteie boel oet
tee.14 The popotio o the globl popltio fecte by wethe-elte ite oble betwee 1975 2001.15 Bt ch chge
e othig compe to wht o the wy. I it Thi Ae-
met epot i 2001, the IPCC pojecte tht, o cet te, the
plet wol wm p by betwee 1.4 5.8 egee Cetige
by 2100. My eeche ow believe tht the wmig col be
moe evee.16 Whicheve etimte e e, it i likely tht by
the e o the cety the eth will be hotte th t y othe
time i the lt two mil lio ye.
Two million years! Will human beings be ready or that?
Little will hve pepe them o it. At tht poit, climtic coi-
tio will pobbly be ot oly otie the hitoicl expeiece o
peet-y hm, bt otie thei ceto phyicl ecologi-
cl expeiece well.17
What are the changes that are expected?
Amog the likely miettio o climte chge i thi cety
will be: Le gicltl poctivity, epecilly i hotte plce.18
Moe eqet het wve le eqet col pell.
Bigge tom, highe wi moe wethe-elte mge like
tht ocite with Hice Kti i 2005 Hice Ct-
i i 2004, the t ecoe hice i the Soth Atltic.19
Moe itee oo , i mi-ltite cotietl iteio,
oght.
Wte cie ocite with ippeig glcie owpck
othe evet.20
Movemet o mig to othe egio, epecilly highe ltite.
Fte iee tmiio othe helth impct.21 The Wol
Helth Ogitio etimte tht the wmig pecipittio
te e to thopogeic climte chge o the pt 30 ye
ley clim ove 150,000 live lly.22
Riig e level. Meltig o the Wet Atctic Geel ice
heet, oce tte, wol likely become el-eiocig (ch ice
me col ot om i toy climte).23 Combie with the
theml expio o the wme oce, thi wol ltimtely
ce e-level ie i exce o 10 mete, ooig cotl citie
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introduction a new fossil fuel crisis 11
pime gicltl e. Glcie withi the Wet Atctic
ice heet e ley ttig to ippe, collpe o the heet
withi thi cety cot be le ot.24
Specie extictio bioiveity lo.
Icee mbe o eviometl egee.25
How ast is all this happening?
No oe c be e how qickly thee poblem will ol,
how evee they will be. Oe thig cietit e iceigly co-
cee bot i poible eebck ectio tht col ccelete glo-
bl wmig. Accoig to the IPCC, ch efect e moe likelyto mke globl wmig woe th to meite it.
Fo exmple, meltig o ice cp i the Actic,26 whee the climte
i chgig te th elewhee, col le to eoble wmig,
highly eective white ce give wy to ke, moe het-
boptive oce ce.27 A tempete ie, moe cbo i lo
beig lot om oil e to moe pi ecompoitio o ogic m-
teil, cetig othe eebck efect.28
I Agt 2005, cietit epote tht the wol lget expe o
oe pet bog i wete Sibei, pig millio qe kilo-mete, w egoig peceete thwig tht col elee
ito the tmophee billio o toe o methe geehoe g
20 time moe powel i ocig globl wmig th cbo iox-
ie.29 Some cietit e tht i the oce e wme beyo ce-
ti egee, thee my lo be e, cttophic elee o meth-
e om methe hyte o the e oo pevioly kept qiecet
thogh high pee low tempete.30
The geologicl ice-coe eco how tht climtic icotiitie
ce by ch pheome hve bee ie i the pt.31 At time theymy hve ive p vege globl tempete by mch eight
egee Cetige i the pce o hm lietime.32
Similly, i y eo become log eogh, eiccte Amo
col b, eleig hge biotic toe o cbo ito the tmophee
ll t oce. I othe oet ollowe it, tht col ive the tempe-
te othe two egee Cetige highe o moe.33
Still othe bpt, olie ip o the climte to ew eqilibi e
lo poible. Fo itce, ixe o eh wte om meltig iceo the Noth Atltic, togethe with icee ow o Ri
ive ito the Actic Oce, e cpble o lowig o eve toppig
the themohlie coveyo-belt o the Gl Stem. Aley, ty
Humanity is perorminga great geophysicalexperiment, not in
a laboratory, not in acomputer, but on our own
planet.
Roger Revelle and
Hans Suess, 1956
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12 development dialogue september 2006 carbon trading
o oce cicltio i the Noth Atltic h o 30 pe cet e-
ctio i the wm cet tht cy wte oth om the Gl
Stem.34 A htow o the Stem wol ece the ow o Cib-
be het othw, oppig Eope tempete ticlly
while yig ot the climte i egio ch Cetl Wete
Ai.35 Whe the cet toppe bot 12,700 ye go poibly
e to e ge o eh wte ito the Noth Atltic tig-
gee by the meltig o glcie tht h mme p ciet lke
i Noth Ameic it w o moe th 1,000 ye; othe evet
ltig 100 ye occe bot 8,200 ye go.
The climte, i othe wo, i likely to chge i olie o-
iom wy. Yet eve i it wee poible to peict exctly how it
might hit i evey egio, it wol till be vitlly impoible to
tck o etimte i vce the efect o livig thig hm
ocietie with mch coece.
A ecoytem coot hock te hock, t o i clt-to-ticipte
efect will ite thogh commitie o livig thig h, i-
ect, micoogim tee hit thei ge o gowth ptte
o ie of.38
The peictbility c oly icee thee hock evebete
thogh ocil ytem. Wte, hetig, tpot, helth ce, i-
ce, legl policig ytem will ll hve to pt to chge
otie thei hitoicl expeiece.39
The climte oet lwy chge getly
glly. Moe moe climte cie-
tit e poitig to the poibility tht, e
to globl wmig, the eth climte col
ely hit to iclly ifeet
iclly le hopitble tte, h ote
hppee i the pt (ee mi text).
Geophyicit Dol Peovich like the
climte ytem to owig bot tht iocke om ie to ie moe moe
violetly, til it lly tke i wte
ely cpie. Yo c tip the
yoll jt go bck. Yo c tip it jt
go bck. A the yo tip it yo get
to the othe tble tte, which i pie
ow.36
Vete pleoclimtologit Wllce Boeck-
e o Colmbi Uiveity e ifeet
compio: The eth climte ytem
h pove itel to be gy bet.Whe ge, it i cpble o violet e-
poe.37
Tipping Points and Angry Beasts
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introduction a new fossil fuel crisis 13
Is climate change already irreversible?
It epe wht yo me, o whom. Fo my people, o ex-
mple i ome egio o the oth, it i ot oly ieveible bth ley ovete the live o, o exmple, hte who ely o
wite ice. Fo ome bi pecie o col pecie it i ley too lte.
I othe, boe ee, thig c be te o, eve thogh t
thi tge they e bo to get woe beoe they get bette, o mt-
te wht policie e opte ow.
I everythings so uncertain, why should we do anything? Wouldnt it be betterto wait until were sure whats going to happen?
Thee will lwy be cetity bot the etil the timig. Btwht i ceti i tht the wol i o coe o evee hock, tht thee
will become moe evee the moe oil cbo i tee to the t-
mophee, tht they will thete my millio o people, tht thee
will cotie to be pie, tht thee pie will motly be
plet.40 Tht eogh to em immeite ctio.
Give me the bottom line. I we dont do anything, what will climate changecost us?
Agi, tht qetio o oe i likely to be ble to eiblewe to. Fit, oboy h y ie how to clclte o etimte
with y coece the extet efect o climte chge.41 No
c yoe peict vey well the te cot o techologie tht
Strange weather
ahead: global
warming will
increase stormintensity.
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14 development dialogue september 2006 carbon trading
hve yet to be evelope o eploye o ocil chge tht e likely
to hve mltiple efect.42 Seco, o oe c eobly ig cot
to impobble bt ieveible o cttophic evet whe wht coltigge them i o pooly etoo, whe icot te e
cpble o mkig y te ite ltimtely icoeqetil i
moey tem.43 Thi, thoe efect my evethele be o weepig
tht they emie my o the imgie cott o which cot
etimte e be.44 To tke exteme ce, i thee e o mket
thee will be o pice. Foth, the civilitio hm lie
livelihoo tht e thetee by climte chge e ot geelly
hel to be o le. No oe c imgie wht mket they wol be
ol i i they wee wht thei pice wol be, ttempt to
itte them i imgiy mket e elely ipte. The me i
te o pecie extictio, helth ite tht fect te o millio
o people, my othe o the poible efect o climte chge.45
But i we cant assign a price to all the possible uture damage, how can weknow how serious the threat is? And how will we know what level o actionwill be appropriate?
A Rth Geep Bell o Reoce o the Fte h poite ot,
whe love oe h potetilly tl iee, yo ot peom
cot-beet lyi whe eciig wht to o. Ite, yo o wht
i withi yo powe to help.
We c gp how eio the thet o climte chge i by lookig t
the te, lookig t the ciece, lookig t the poible efect, ot
peteig to poe kowlege tht we ct chieve. The ittio
i b, bt imgiig we c qtiy how b it i iteee with cl-
ity o thoght with goo eciio-mkig. Eve woe i tyig to
compe ome imgiy ge o te cot o climte chge with
imgiy mbe o, y, te ecoomic gi o loe ocite
with titio to moe eible eegy ytem.46
The efect o poible chge i climte, howeve hoiyig they e,
e ot, tictly pekig, ik. Rik c be clclte pobbil-
itie ige to them, llowig them to become the bject o ecoom-
ic clcltio. Fo exmple, lie ice compie, extpoltig
om hitoy, c compile ctil tble tht will tell them the likely
liep o people ttig vio eciptio. O, to tke the clic
exmple o chmpge poctio e i 1921 by Fk Kight, oe
o the emil thike bot ik: Sice i the opetio o y po-
ce pcticlly cott kow popotio o the bottle bt,it oe ot epecilly mttewhethe the popotio i lge o mll.
The lo become xe cot i the ity i pe o to the
come, like the otly o lbo o mteil.47
The climate system is nota statistical sample of
champagne bottles.
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introduction a new fossil fuel crisis 15
Plig o climte chge eqie ifeet ki o thikig.
The climte ytem i ot ttiticl mple o chmpge bottle.
Climtologit o ot extpolte ttiticl ly om pt te, i-ce compie wie bottle o, bt cotct implie,
te-oce compte cicltio moel tht yiel vio ife-
et ceio.48 The pobbilitie o thoe otcome tht c be -
ticipte t ll c be clclte oly eltive to ome otmet o
compte moel. Thee moel my o my ot icopote elevt
cto,49 my o my ot ee the ll ge o poible te
elitie (ee box o p. 16: Wol iie Compte).
So industrialised societies arent going to be able just to keep on what theyredoing, calculate their chances, and take out a little more insurance?
No. My o the likely otcome o climte chge e goig to
be ible. Aew Dlgolecki, ice pecilit omely
with CGNU (ow kow Aviv), the ixth lget ice m
i the wol, peclte tht, ely 2010, bpt o chotic cli-
mte chge col oce ice compie to chge l te
high 12 pe cet o ie vle, ocig mot biee
iivil to op thei covege etiely.55 Ice loe bece
o exteme wethe, Dlgolecki poit ot, e iceig by -
l 10 pe cet while wol ecoomic gowth i vegig 3 pe cet
ye: By 2065 the two gowth gph co, the wol ecoomy c
o loge ti the loe, collpe will ollow.56
It ote tee tht the Soth will fe mot om globl wm-
ig. Sothe cotie e etimte to fe 97 pe cet o tl
ite-elte eth occig ech ye, lo ce mch lg-
e ecoomic loe th Nothe cotie i tem o pecetge
o go tiol poct.57 Bt it impott to elie tht globl
wmig will ot pe itilie ocietie, the ecet New
Ole ite gget.
Iee, the locke-i epeece o itilie ocietie thei
militie o eomo oil-oiete techologicl itittio-
l ytem o pllele ieti iexibility cete it ow pecil
globl wmig vlebilitie. Michel Nothop o Rockeelle Both-
e F Dvi Soo o Sciece Fit Commictio ote i
ecet bie pblictio tht climte chge i like y othe ik
cto tht o moe cil ytem h eve coote:
It coti o ecipocl o ltetive oppotity... Climtechge ee [moey mge] impotet. It ik tht ct
be mge o, the oly tiol coe o ctio i to
miimie it impct.58
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16 development dialogue september 2006 carbon trading
Geel Cicltio Moel (GCM) emiite, cloe wol cete iie
compte. Coitig o te o tho
o lie o compte coe, ech GCM cl-
clte how climte might chge i
pticl imgiy wol ove ece
o cetie, give ceti iitil mp-
tio.
Thee moel thee e oe o them i
e i vio plce e be o oli pi-ciple o phyic. Tke togethe, they give
eel o how climte might chge i the el
wol. Bt thei ele ct be checke
by expeimet i the oiy ee,
thee e thig they cot tell .
Fit, GCM e highly implie whe
compe with the el climte ytem.
Seco, ll o them e likely to hve let
ot ceti mechim iecig cli-
mte tht e ot yet kow.50 Thi i -
clty i me moe eio by the ct tht
my moel he commo heitge.
Typiclly, oe moellig gop bo-
ow othe gop moel moie
it, meig tht the ew moel my
eti poblemtic elemet o thoe omwhich they wee cete, eplictig y-
temtic eo.51
Thi, the globl t tht moel e hve
ceti limittio limittio excebt-
e by the ct tht my o the t e ge-
ete by the moel themelve, to ll i
blk eee to globl imltio.52
Foth, moel e chcteie by vi-
o ki o cetity. Fo itce, theye extemely eitive to iitil mp-
tio, meig tht ifeet will yiel
hgely ifeet elt. No pticl
o moel c be expecte to eect the
el climte ytem, i which, lo, mll
chge t oe loctio time c le
to lge ifeece t othe loctio
time.53 Climte moellig geete wht
oe lyt cll mtte ct ll o the-
oie, cetitie mbigitie cttht hve to be gpe mch with yo
imgitio with yo clclto.54 Tht
oe ot mke them y le wothy o t-
tetio.
So i conventional types o economic management are out the window, what
do we do?
A ifeet ki o pectio i eee, oe mtche to the ptic-
l te o the climte poblem.
Thi ki o pectio wol ckowlege ttempt to emove
igoce cetity. It wol ty to mximie exibility, e-
iliece poibilitie o te leig. A i the metime
it wol voi ieveible coe o ctio tht e potetilly
civilitio-theteig.5960
Uvoibly, tht me tkig bette ce o the wol tive biot,which cotitte lge voltile toehoe o cbo. Bt bove
ll, it me lowig hltig oil el extctio peig moe
eech ito gp bli pot.
Worlds inside Computers
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introduction a new fossil fuel crisis 17
What? You mean we have to stop mining coal and drilling or oil and gas?
Moe o le, ye. Remembe the imge o the bove-go cbo-
cyclig ytem oce, tmophee, vegettio, oil git glo-
bl wte mp with limite cpcity. The thik o oil el mi-
ig big git ctoy tht ceelely pmpig wte ito
thi mp egle. The oly ece wy o toppig the mp om
oveowig i to ece ticlly, ltimtely top, the ow ito it
to mke e tht mot emiig oil el ty i the go.
That seems so extreme.
It ot. Eve Sheikh Zki Ymi, the ome Si oil miite,
h ckowlege tht [t]he Stoe Age i ot e o lck o toe,
the oil ge will e log beoe the wol ot o oil.61 Mot
oil el e goig to hve to be let i the go, jt mot o
the wol toe i eve goig to be tome ito owhe
o Stoehege.
Cotiig to tke oil cbo ot o the go pttig it i the
bove-go mp i oe-wy teet, bece it ct ely be pt
bck. Stoppig the ow ito the mp, o the othe h, i both po-
ible pet. Keepig oil el i the go ecogigy emoctic movemet tht ley hve thi objective h to be
the elt, mitem ppoch to tcklig climte chge.
How soon must the fow o ossil uels rom the ground to the surace be cut o,then? Immediately? As soon as possible? How soon is that?
Thee i o igle coect we to qetio like tht. Bt ome
wok h ley bee oe o the cle o ctio eee to mii-
mie te mge keep optio ope.
I 2001, the IPCC etimte tht etictig tempete ie to 1.5-3.9 egee Cetige wol eqie CO2 level to be tbilie t
450 pt pe millio (ppm). Tht wol imply cmltive cbo
emiio o oly 630650 millio toe betwee 1990 2100,
compe to the 4,000 mill io toe o o tht wol elt i l l e-
miig cceible oil el wee exploite.62
I 2005, eeche Mlte Meihe o the Swi Feel Ititte
o Techology o tht, o ome moel, tempete ie o 2
egee Cetige o le ietie the bitily by my cli-
mte expet to be the highet e level o hetig w likely olyi level o geehoe ge col be tbilie t 400 ppm o CO2
eqivlet, te pekig t 475 ppm.63 Tht wol etil 50 pe
cet ct i emiio by 2050, with pek emiio level o o moe
Humanity has becomemore and more vulner-
able to long- and short-term climate change, asit has become ever moredi cult and expensive
or us to respond to itThe times require us tolearn the vagaries o the
global climate, to study itsmoods, and to keep our
skies relatively ree o ex-cessive greenhouse gaseswith the same diligence,
and or the same reasons,that Mesopotamian arm-ers ve millennia ago hadto learn the moods o theEuphrates and keep theirirrigation canals reason-
ably ree o silt.60
Brian Fagan, 2004
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18 development dialogue september 2006 carbon trading
th 120 pe cet o 1990 l evel t o 2010. A ie o 2 egee
Cetige o le col ctlly be gtee oly i tmopheic
cocettio tbilie t 350 ppm. Tht wol imply eve teepect, ice cocettio ley t t 380 ppm.
Qick ctio i ccil i oe to voi eve moe pilly tic
ctio lte. Meihe we tht l ectio te wol
hve to become 1 pe cet teepe o evey ve ye o ely. De-
lyig ct by 10 ye wol ely oble the eqie ectio
te i 2025. Delyig o 20 ye, ccoig to eeche Stefe
Klbekke Nth Rive, wol me hvig to ece emi-
io thee to eve time te.64
But how are these cuts going to be made? And who is going to make them?
Thee e the qetio t the het o the climte ebte. A they
e ot jt qetio o expet. By evelig tht the wol c-
bo mp i vey limite goo, the ciece o globl wmig h
evele poblem tht i jt mch politicl techicl.
What do you mean?
The wol cbo-cyclig cpcity, ptly bece it vey limite,
h lo become extemely vlble. Fo tht eo, eveyboy i go-
ig to be iteete i gettig ight to it (ee box, below: The Bith
o Atmopheic Right). Pee will gow to ivie p the globl
cbo mp mog the wol people.
Divide up how?
Tht ccil qetio, oe tht h immee eeth the
ce o itetiol egotitio bot climte o my ye.
Wht ki o ight hol people o govemet hve to cbomp pce, give the ee to miti climtic tbility o cet
te geetio? A who will get thee ight? Do yo ivie
p the mp pce eqlly mog the wol people? Do yo give
the wol wot-of ipopotiote he i the mp? Do yo
give the bigget he to thoe who hvet yet h chce to e
mch o the mp? Do yo give the bigget he to thoe who c
let fo to ct ow o thei e o the mp? Do yo give the
mot mp pce to thoe who c e it to cotibte the mot to the
globl goo? O o yo jt give the mot ight to the mp to thoe
who e ig it the mot ley? Thee e gmet o ll o thee
wy o it ibtig the wol cbo-cyclig cpcity.
Delaying action ordecades, or even just years,is not a serious option.
Sciece, 9 January 2004
I we are to avoid havingto make dramatic andeconomically destructivedecisions in the uture, wemust act soon.
Foeig Afi,July/August 2004
U.S.
Austraila
Canada
Singapore
Korea, Rep.
Japan
New Zeeland
Malaysia
Hong Kong
Thailand
Mexico
China
Indonesia
India
Phillipines
20,1
18,3
16,5
13,8
9,4
9,4
8,7
6,3
5,2
3,7
3,7
2,7
1,4
1,2
0,9
Per capita CO2 emissions 2002:
North America and Asia/Pacific
Source: (CDIAC)
metric tons of CO2 per capita
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introduction a new fossil fuel crisis 19
Up to ow, philoophe Pete Sige wite,it i i the wol people hve bee livig
i villge i which eveyoe pt thei
wte ow git ik. At t thee i
o poblem:
No oe qite kow wht hppe to
the wte te they go ow the ik,
bt ice they ippe hve o -
vee impct o yoe, o oe woie
bot it. Some people come lot, o hve lot o wte, while othe, with
moe limite me, hve bely y, bt
the cpcity o the ik to ipoe o o
wte eem o limitle tht o oe wo-
ie bot the ifeece.65 No mtte how
mch o the ik oe peo my e, o
poblem ie, bece thee i lwy
eogh o eveyboy ele.
Bt te while,
the ik cpcity to cy wy o
wte i e p to the ll, thee i
ley ome plet eepge tht eem
to be the elt o the ik beig etoo mch Whe the wethe i wm, it
mell. A eby wte hole whee o chil-
e wim ow h lge bloom tht mke
it ble. Sevel epecte ge i the
villge w tht le ge o the ik i
ct ow, ll the villge wte pplie will
be pollte.
Cotiig to thow wte ow the
ik, i othe wo, oe ot leve eogho it o eveyoe to e withot hm to
the commity.
Wht we might hve me w odeacto ight to e the ik y wy we wt-e come ito qetio. The ik belog
to ll i commo. I oe to voi
coeqece o oe wt, eveyoe
who e it mt ow ccept ome limit.
Atmopheic ight, Sige believe, mt
ow be ice, ee, limite l-
locte.66
Whew. Sounds complicated.
It i. Tht why the eco thi chpte o thi pecil epot o
Development Dialoguee eeve ptly o look t how thi politic
h evelope.
OK, Ill wait or that. But right now cant you at least give me some idea othe political status quo? Who has been using the most dump space so ar? Whois most responsible or the current climate crisis?
A metioe t the begiig o thi chpte, the Noth i ove-
whelmigly epoible. Aew Simm o the New Ecoomic
Fotio pehp m p the ittio bet: Ecoomic pe-
powe hve bee ccel toy i thei ipopotiote occ-
ptio o the tmophee with cbo emiio they wee i theimil ity occptio o the teetil wol i coloil time.67
Fom 1950 to 1986, the US, with le th 5 pe cet o the wol
popltio, w epoible o 30 pe cet o it cmltive geehoe
The Birth o Atmospheric Rights
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20 development dialogue september 2006 carbon trading
g emiio. Ii, with 17 pe cet o the wol popltio, w
epoible o le th 2 pe cet.68 I 2000, the US w emittig
20.6 toe o cbo ioxie pe peo, Swee 6.1, Ugy 1.6 Mombiqe 0.1.
I ct, it pobbly ot too of the mk to y tht the US loe i
cetly ig l l o the vilble globl mpig pce o gee-
hoe ge. To boow Pete Sige wo, to cotie to ct i
thi wy yet to ee commity vivl wol be to epive
othe o y e o it t ll.69
In short, industrialised societies are not only using more o the worlds carbon
dumping space than everybody else; theyre also using several times more thanis available or the use o all.
Tht bot the ie o it. So y ttempt to keep oil el i the go
i goig to hve to tckle itilie ocietieictio to oil el the eegy-poigte wy o livig they hve me poible.
So the days o petrol-uelled cars, coal-red electricity generation, and oil-basedair travel are limited.
Thee e ll ow et techologie, to be phe ot oo
poible.
Not an easy challenge.
No, bt ot impoible oe, eithe.
Where do you start?
Thee e plety o plce to tt, my o them will be i-
ce i thi pecil epot. Bt the impott thig to emembe
ow i tht i the tggle to tem the ow o oil cbo ot o thego, o oe i begiig om eo.
Mot hm expeiece mot hm chievemet h tke
plce i ocietie i which vey little oil, g o col i e. It i the
wol ich mioity tht h gow mot epeet o oil c-
bo; oly i eltively ecet time. A eve thei ictio c
be boke by ocil techologicl iovtio tht oly eqie
powel eogh politicl movemet to be et i motio.70
No i it oly e ciecy expet, commity ple evelop-
e o ol o wi eegy tht e poviig the mteil to eblegete iepeece om oil el. Jt impott e the my
ocil movemet with eep expeiece i eitig oil el extc-
tio o exploittio.
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introduction a new fossil fuel crisis 21
Globl wmig, te ll, it the t oil el cii. Col, oil
g hve bee ocite with eviometl egtio, mge
live, ebt,71 ocil coict w o log time, eltig i -tie cmpig o oppoitio.
Fo ece, explotio o ew oil g el h goe h i
h with ecochmet o people l with peptio to
ipoe them.
Extctio h lo povoke cetive eitce l l ove the wol, ,
om Eco to the Ri F Et, om Nigei to Bm, o-
il el copotio, lly bcke by govemet, hve tole o
cotmite locl l, oet wte while mively iceig
the ebt o cotie they wok i.72
Reig tpot hve boght thei ow legcy o impimet,
iee, ipoeio cotmitio. A polltio om i-
ti l powe plt big oil el h let mk o feig,
iee coict o fecte commitie o ove 150 ye.
Road built
through forest
in Ecuador to
extract oil (top).Oil spill in the
Ecuadorean
forest (bottom).
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22 development dialogue september 2006 carbon trading
Not let, the militie qet o itilie ocietie o oil h
egee ecity, poioe live blighte politic o the
wol. Toy, w cotig cotle mbe o live billio ooll c be oght o the ke o ew moth o ye woth o
oil, ce oppoitio movemet wolwie.
The tggle to tbilie climte to top the wol bove-go
cbo mp om oveowig tke it plce oe moe pect
o thi log hitoy o coict. A it big ot leo ecoe i
tht hitoy: the ee to wy o levig col, oil g i the
go.
Thats not a lesson you oten see discussed in the newspapers or on television.No. I ct, mot bie politicl lee cotie to ct i it
oegoe coclio tht ll emiig oil, g eve col will
hve to be tke ot o the go, eve they poclim the gecy
o oig omethig bot globl wmig (ee box: Tyig to Hve
It Both Wy).
Women from coastal
communities inSongkhla, southern
Thailand, protest
against a gas pipeline
and separation plant
project that threatens
local fisheries,common land and
livelihoods.
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introduction a new fossil fuel crisis 23
Mot bie politicl lee pek i hmity col vive ll emiig
oil el beig tke ot o the go,
yet lo clim to be committe to ctio
o climte chge.
Thee i o eviomet miite o
Eth tht will top thi oil om beig
poce, i Ci eviomet
miite Stephe Dio i Novembe
2005,73
eeig to poject to mie poce Albet t tht wil l oble
C CO2 emiio i the coe o
mkig vilble billio o itiol
bel o oil.74 Le th two week lte ,
Dio tol the elegte to the itetio-
l climte egotitio gthee i Mo-
tel tht climte chge i the igle mot
impott eviometl ie cig the
wol toy:
We kow tht the loge we wit, the
lge will be the chllege the m-
ge om climte chgemoe ctio i
eqie ow [i pit o] o ltimte
commo objective o tbiliig gee-
hoe g cocettio.75
Aco the Atltic, Bitih Pime Mii-
te Toy Bli bllie Membe o Pli-
met ito cqiecig i expio oBiti vitio ity, the ecipiet o
GBP 9 billio l biy i wive
el txe: H p o thi tble
how my politici cig potetil
electio t ome poit i the ot-too-
itt te wol vote to e chep i
tvel?
Bli, who the wet o to itch policy
to eqie hoebile to impove the
eegy e ciecy o home,76
whoemiiml ppot o eewble eegy
h bee eploe eve by commit-
tee o the Hoe o Lo,77 h ecetly
ietie climte chge pobbly the
igle mot impott ie we ce
globl commity78 emphie tht
the time to ct i ow.79 Sbeqetly, he
citicie the itetiol climte chge
ebte o elctce to ce p to elity
the pcticl ctio eee to tcklepoblem.80 Bli vitio policy me
tht hi govemet tget o cttig c-
bo emiio by 60 pe cet by 2050 col
oly be chieve i evey bit o mchiey
othe th eople hip toppe
pocig y emiio t ll.81
I the me ye, the Itetiol Eegy
Agecy (IEA), compiig the 26 mi oil-
comig tio, ecommee tht theglobl oil ity ivet usd 20.3 tillio
i ew cilitie by 2030, to voi highe
oil pice. The IEA the wet o to w
tht le the wol tke ctio to ece
eegy comptio, globl geehoe
g emiio will icee by 52 pe cet
by 2030. Thee pojecte te le to
te tht i ot tible We mt
chge thee otcome get the pletoto tible eegy pth, i Wil-
lim C. Rmy, the IEA Depty Exec-
tive Diecto.82
Oil compie ch BP Shell me-
while cotilly bot o icee, ot
ecee, efot to exploit ew
oce o oil el. My view i tht hy-
ocbo will be the blk o the eegy
pply o the ext 30 to 50 ye,83
i Joh
Trying to Have It Both Ways: More Fossil Fuels, Less Climate Change
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24 development dialogue september 2006 carbon trading
Bowe, chie exective o BP. Yet Bowe,
who ovew witch o BP logo to
gee yellow tbt oe with thelog Beyo Petolem, poclim tht
globl wmig i el ee to be -
ee ow.84 Ro Oxbgh, he o Shell,
cocee i 2004 tht climte chge me
him vey woie o the plet.85
I 2005 pblictio, the Wol Bie
Cocil o Stible Developmet ot-
lie key e o te ctio o climte
chge, iclig e ciecy, cle e-egy, govemet ppot o eegy e-
ech evelopmet, techology
te to the Soth. It eglect to me-
tio y mee o phig ot oil
el beoe they e exhte.86
Filly, the Wol Bk, which h coit-
etly obeye the 1981 em o the US
Tey Deptmet tht it ply le ole
i the expio iveictio o glo-bl eegy pplie to ehce ecity o
pplie ece OPEC mket powe
ove oil pice,87 coe the Agt 2004
ecommetio o it ow eview com-
miio tht it hlt ppot o col extc-
tio poject immeitely phe ot
ppot o oil extctio poject by 2008.88
The commiio, chie by ome Io-
ei eviomet miite Emil Slim,
h poite ot tht ch extctive poject
i othig to pomote the Bk tte
miio o llevitig globl povety.
Fom 1992 thogh lte 2004, the Wol
Bk Gop ppove usd 11 billio i -
cig o 128 oil-el extctio pojecti 45 cotie poject tht will ltimte-
ly le to moe th 43 billio toe o
cbo-ioxie emiio, ge he
o time moe th the emiio ectio
tht igtoie to the Kyoto Potocol e
eqie to mke betwee 1990 2012.
Aothe usd 17 billio h goe o othe
oil el-elte poject. I 2004-2005,
the Wol Bk Gop pet usd 7.6 bil-
lio i oil el-iteive ecto (37 pe-
cet o it totl leig o the ye) with
oly mgil efot to e the climte
chge implictio.89 Moe th 82 pe
cet o Wol Bk cig o oil ex-
tctio h goe to poject tht expot oil
bck to welthy Nothe cotie. Bk
cig o oil el otpce eew-
ble eegy cig by 17 to oe.90 Some
o the bigget beeciie o Bk -ig icle Hllibto, the oil cotcto,
Shell, ChevoTexco, Totl, ExxoMobil,
othe oil el compie.91 Yet i
2005, the Bk w ige key ole i
tcklig climte chge by the G8 gop o
ecoomic powe. Let wok togethe o
climte-iely te, i Bk pei-
et, Pl Wolowit, oe o the chitect
o the US w o Iq.92
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introduction a new fossil fuel crisis 25
They hope to olve the poblem o the oveowig bove-go
cbo mp ot by cttig of the ow o oil cbo om e-
go, bt by cvig ot ew mp to pt it i.
Solemly, they popoe pkig cbo ioxie i hole i the go,
o liqeyig it ijectig it ito the bottom o the oce. I ll
eioe, they gget pttig the ext cbo i billio o ext
tee pecil ly gow o the ppoe. Withot y ee o bity,
they vocte competig o the extctio o emiig oil
el by mkig ext efot to ve them o e them moe e -
cietly; o by cttig ow o the e o othe geehoe ge like
hyooocbo o ito oxie; o by bilig moe wimill
th h bee oigilly ple; o by big of the methe thtcol miig elee the th jt vetig it ito the tmophee.
Politicl bie lee the go o to popoe mket o ex-
chgig ll o thee ppoely eqivlet thig o ech othe.
Thi i mket, they e the pblic, i which yo will be ble to
py the eviometl cot o cotiig to ill oil by cewig
i e ciet light blb, o o the cot o opeig ew col mie by
big the methe tht eep p ot o the me mie.
The mege i cle. Itilie ocietie c cotie to e p
oil el til thee e oe let woth ecoveig. Sbiie o
exploittio o oil el epoit ee ot be ece. No i thee
y ee to get tte ight wy o jt techologicl cltl
titio to ociety tht oe ot ee col, oil g.
The tebility o thi ttempt to ecpe om the climte cii
the wy it exte thoe clic coict ove explotio, extc-
tio, eig, polltio, milititio, ebt iecity tht hve
bee ete o ociety eltiohip to col, oil g o moe
th cety will be the bject o mch o the et o thi pecil
epot. The ext chpte will ketch how cbo tig evelope
hitoiclly.
Gas flaring in Delta State,
Nigeria (top) and protests
(bottom).
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26 development dialogue september 2006 carbon trading
1 J. T. Houghton et al., Climate Change: The Scientific
Basis, Cambridge University Press, 2001 estimates thatabout three-quarters of anthropogenic atmospheric
carbon dioxide increases are due to fossil fuel burning.Duncan Austin et al. put the figure at 70 per cent
(Contributions to Climate Change: Are Conventional
Measures Misleading the Debate?, World Resources
Institute, Washington, 1998). Land use change is thoughtto contribute most of the rest. See, e.g., Johannes J.
Feddema et al., The Importance of Land-Cover Change
in Simulating Future Climates, Science 310, 9 December
2005, pp. 1674 1678. The cumulative contribution of
fossil fuels to the excess carbon in the atmosphere is
growing, however. Although carbon dioxide is the mostimportant greenhouse gas, many other gases are also
significant, including methane, nitrous oxide, halogenatedcompounds and water vapor.
2 Jeffrey S. Dukes, Burning Buried Sunshine: Human
Consumption of Ancient Solar Energy, Climatic
Change 61, 2003, pp. 31-44.
3 Taro Takahashi, The Fate of Industrial Carbon Dioxide,
Science 305, 16 July 2004, pp. 352-3; Emissions Turning
Oceans Acid, Hostile to Marine Life, Environmental
News Service, 6 July 2005; Carol Turley, The Other
CO2 Problem, http://www.opendemocracy.net/debates/article-6-129-2480.jsp; Rowan Hooper, Marine
crisis looms over acidifying oceans, New Scientist, 30
June 2005. See also C. L. Sabine et al., The OceanicSink for Anthropogenic CO2, Science, 16 July 2004,
;pp. 367-71 and C. Le Quere and N. Metzl, Natural
Processes Regulating the Ocean Uptake of CO2, in C.
B. Field and M. R. Raupach, eds, The Global CarbonCycle: Integrating Humans, Climate, and the Natural
World, Island Press, Washington, 2004.
4 See, for example, G. C. Hurtt et al., Projecting the
Future of the U.S. Carbon Sink, Proceedings of the
National Academy of Sciences 99, 1999, pp. 1389-94;
P. M. Cox et al., Acceleration of Global Warming Due
to Carbon-Cycle Feedbacks in a Coupled Climate
Model,, Nature, 9 November 2000, pp. 184-87; J.L. Dufresne et al., On the Magnitude of Positive
Feedback between Future Climate Change and the
Carbon Cycle, Geophysical Research Letters 29, 2002;
and Chapter 3.
5 Hans-Holger Rogner, Climate Change Assessments:
Technology Learning and Fossil Fuels How Much
Carbon Can Be Mobilized?, paper presented to
International Energy Agency Workshop on Climate
Change Damages and the Benefits of Mitigation, 26-28 February 1997, International Institute for Applied
Systems Analysis.
6 Robert L. Hirsch et al., Peaking of World OilProduction: Impacts, Mitigation and Risk Assessment,
US Department of Energy, Washington, 2005, available
at http://www.hubbertpeak.com/us/NETL/OilPeaking.
pdf. For another view of the controversy see Jeremy
Leggett, Half Gone: The Coming Global Energy
Crisis, Its Conflation with Global Warming and theConsequences, 2005, http://www.lorax.org/~oilchange/
priceofoil.org/media/20051000_I_o_P.pdf.
7 Duncan Austin et al., op. cit. supra note 1.
8 United States National Oceanic and Atmospheric
Administration, NOAA Magazine, 15 July 2004, www.magazine.noaa.gov; Eugene Linden, Cloudy with a
Chance of Chaos, Fortune, 17 January 2006. Putting
all remaining fossil carbon into the atmosphere would
entail staggering concentrations of several thousand
parts per million.
9 Joint Science Academies Statement: Global Response
to Climate Change, June 2005, http://www.royalsoc.
ac.uk/displaypagedoc.asp?id=20742.10 Naomi Oreskes, The Scientific Consensus on Climate
Change, Science 306, 3 December 2004, p. 1686.
11 Tim P. Barnett et al., Penetration of Human-Induced
Warming into the Worlds Oceans, Science 309, 5732, 8
July 2005, pp. 284-287. See also Fred Pearce, Climate
Evidence Finds Us Guilty as Charged, New Scientist2503, 11 June 2005.
12 Tim Flannery, Monstrous Carbuncle, London Review of
Books 27 1, 6 January 2005.
13 Jeremy Leggett, The Carbon War: Dispatches from the
End of the Oil Century, London: Allen Lane, 1999.
14 Arctic Climate Impact Assessment, Impacts of
a Warming Arctic, Cambridge University Press,
Cambridge, 2004. See highlights at http://amap.no/acia/Highlights.pdf. See also Elizabeth Kohlert, The
Climate of Man, The New Yorker, 25 April 2005.
15 Benito Muller, Equity in Climate Change: The GreatDivide, Oxford Institute for Energy Studies, Oxford,
2002.
16 Richard Black, Global Warming Risk Much Higher,
BBC News, 23 May 2006; Bala Govidasamy, Too Hot to
Handle, Science and Technology, Lawrence LivermoreLaboratory, Livermore, CA, June 2006, http://www.llnl.
gov/str/June06/Govindasamy.html.
17 Kohlert, op. cit. supra note 14.
18 Dick Ahlstrom, Worlds Starving Could Grow by
50m People, Irish Times, 6 September 2005; Fred
Pearce, Rice Yields Plunging due to Balmy Nights,
New Scientist, 29 June 2004; Glenn, Jerome C.
and Theodore J. Gordon,2005 State of the Future,
American Council for the United Nations University,Washington, 2005.
19 For views on whether global warming has already
resulted in stronger hurricanes, see P. J. Webster etal., Changes in Tropical Cyclone Number, Duration,
and Intensity in a Warming Environment, Science 353,
6 October 2005, pp. 1433-1436 and NOAA Attributes
Recent Increase in Hurricane Activity to Naturally
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introduction a new fossil fuel crisis 27
Occurring Multi-Decadal Climate Variability, NOAA
Magazine, 29 November 2005, http://www.magazine.noaa.gov.
20 David Cyranoski, The Long Range Forecast and T. P.Barnett et al., Potential Impacts of a Warming Climate
on Water Availability in Snow-Dominated Regions
Nature 438, 17 November 2005, pp. 303-310; Ocean
Warmth Tied to African Drought, New York Times, 24
May 2005.
21 Paul R. Epstein, Climate Change and Human Health,
New England Journal of Medicine 353, 14, 6 October
2005, pp.1433-1436.
22 Jonathan A. Patz et al., Impact of Regional Climate
Change on Human Health, Nature 438, 17 November
2005, pp. 310-318. See also Working Group on ClimateChange and Development, Africa Up in Smoke?, NewEconomics Foundation, London, 2005.
23 Jenny Hogan, Antarctic Ice Sheet is an AwakenedGiant, New Scientist, 2 February 2005. Sea level
changes will be complicated if the North Atlantic
thermohaline circulation shuts down. The plughole
effect of salty North Atlantic surface water sinking
toward the ocean bottom will abate, resulting in even
higher sea levels in Northern Europe, Greenland and
Canada, while there will be compensating loweringeffect on sea levels in other regions of the globe. See
Stephen Battersby, Deep Trouble, New Scientist 2547,15 April 2006, pp. 42-46.
24 Richard A. Kerr, A Bit of Icy Antarctica is Sliding toward
the Sea, Science 305, 24 September 2004, p. 1897.
25 J. T. Houghton, op. cit. supra note 1.
26 Satellite measurements analysed by the US National
Snow and Ice Data Center show 20 per cent less icethan when NASA took the first pictures in 1978 (Fred
Pearce, Climate Going Crazy, New Scientist 2531, 24
December 2005). Levels of Arctic ice are now at their
lowest levels in more than a century, prompting Inuit
hunters who depend on the regions game to file a
human rights complaint against the US government forhuman rights violations (Reuters, 29 September 2005).
27 Arctic Climate Impact Assessment, op. cit. supra note 14.
28 John Pickrell, Soil May Spoil UKs Climate Efforts,
New Scientist 2516, 7 September 2005. See also David
Powlson, Will Soil Amplify Climate Change?, Nature433, 20 January 2005, pp. 204-5.
29 Fred Pearce, Climate Warning as Siberia Melts, New
Scientist 2512, 11 August 2005, p. 12.
30 Leggett, op. cit. supra note 13.
31 Ibid.
32 Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research,
An Update of Recent Research from the Hadley
Centre, UK, November 2000; Richard B. Alley, The
Two-Mile Time Machine: Ice Cores, Abrupt Climate
Change and Our Future, Princeton University Press,
Princeton, 2002 and Abrupt Climate Change,
Scientific American, November 2004, pp. 62-69;National Research Council, Abrupt Climate Change:
Inevitable SurprisesI, National Academy Press,Washington, 2002; Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory,
Abrupt Climate Change, Columbia University, http://
www.ldeo.columbia.edu/res/pi/arch/; Richard A. Kerr,
Confronting the Bogeyman of the Climate System,Science 310, 21 October 2005, pp. 432-33.
33 Fred Pearce, Violent Future, New Scientist 2300, 21
July 2001. See also Intergovernmental Panel on ClimateChange, Third Assessment Report, 2001, Working
Group II, Section 2.6; A. A. J. Williams, D. J. Karoly and
N. Tapper, The Sensitivity of Australian Fire Danger to
Climate Change, Climatic Change 49, 2001, p. 171.
34 Fred Pearce, Faltering Currents Trigger Freeze Fear,
New Scientist 2528, 3 December 2005.
35 Alley, Abrupt Climate Change, op.cit. supra note 32;
Brian Fagan, The Long Summer: How Climate Changed
Civilization, Granta, London, 2004.
36 Kohlert, op. cit. supra note 14.
37 W. S. Broecker, Does the Trigger for Abrupt Climate
Change Reside in the Oceans or in the Atmosphere?,
Science 300, 6 June 2003, pp. 1519-1522.
38 Allison L. Perry et al., Climate Change and Distribution
Shifts in Marine Fishes, Science 308, 24 June 2005,pp. 1912-16; Fred Pearce, Dark Future Looms for Arctic
Tundra, New Scientist 2535, 21 January 2006; Lake
Algae Confirm Global Warming Link, New Scientist
2523, 29 October 2005, p. 19.
39 Peter Schwartz et al., An Abrupt Climate Change
Scenario and Its Implications for US National Security,
Department of Defense, Washington, October 2003;Eugene Linden, op. cit. supra note 8.
40 National Research Council, op. cit. supra note 32.
41 Douglas A. Kysar, Climate Change, Cultural
Transformation and Comprehensive Rationality,
Environmental Affairs Law Review31, 2004, pp. 555-590, pp. 563-570.
42 See, for instance, Jonathan Kohler et al., New Lessons
for Technology Policy and Climate Change Investmentfor Innovation, Tyndall Centre for Climate Change
Research, Norwich, 2005, http://www.tyndall.ac.uk/
publications/briefing_notes/note13.pdf.
43 See, for example, Deutsche Gesellschaft fur
Technische Zusammenarbeit (GTZ) et al., North-South
Dialogue on Equity in the Greenhouse: A Proposal
for an Adequate and Equitable Global Climate
Agreement, GTZ, Berlin, 2004. For another argumenton discount rates, see also Kysar, op. cit. supra note 41,
pp. 578-85.
44 Kysar, op. cit. supra note 41, pp. 564-566.
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28 development dialogue september 2006 carbon trading
45 Larry Lohmann, Whose Voice is Speaking? How
Opinion Polling and Cost-Benefit Analysis SynthesizeNew Publics, Corner House Briefing No. 7, 1998,
available at http://www.thecornerhouse.org.uk. See alsoKysar, op. cit. supra note 41, pp. 570-78.
46 For various irrationalities associated with cost-
benefit analysis, see also Henry Richardson, Practical
Reasoning about Final Ends, Cambridge University
Press, Cambridge, 1994; Martha Nussbaum, The
Fragility of Goodness, Cambridge University Press,
Cambridge, 1986; John ONeill, Ecology, Policy andPolitics, Routledge, London, 1993; Elizabeth Anderson,
Value in Ethics and Economics, Harvard University
Press, Cambridge, MA, 1993; David Wiggins, Needs,
Values, Truth, Oxford University Press, Oxford, 1987
and Mary OBrien, Making Better EnvironmentalDecisions: An Alternative to Risk Assessment, MITPress, Cambridge, MA, 2000.
47 Frank H. Knight, Risk, Uncertainty and Profit, HoughtonMiffl in, Boston, 1921, Part III, Chapter VII. See also
Box: Carbon Offsets and the Ghost of Frank Knight, in
Chapter 3 of this special report, pp. 160-161.
48 Evan Mills, Insurance in a Climate of Change, Science
309, 12 August 2005, pp. 1040-1044.
49 For example, an Oxford University programmeattempting to model climate change between 1920
and 2080, and run on thousands of home computersin Britain, had to be restarted in April 2006 after
modelers decided that one of the input files to the
model hadnt been increasing the amount of sulphate
pollution in the atmosphere (sometimes called theglobal dimming effect) as it should have done,
resulting in an unmasked and therefore exacerbated
warming. See http://www.bbc.co.uk/sn/hottopics/
climatechange/updates1.shtml.
50 Fred Pearce, Harbingers of Doom?, New Scientist
2457, 24 July 2004.
51 Paul N. Edwards, Global Climate Science, Uncertainty
and Politics: Data-Laden Models, Model-Filtered Data,Science as Culture 8, 4, 1999, pp. 437-472.
52 Paul N. Edwards, The World in a Machine: Origins
and Impacts of Early Computerized Global Systems
Models in Thomas P. Hughes and Agatha C. Hughes,
Systems Experts and Computers, MIT Press,
Cambridge, MA, 2000, pp. 221-254.
53 David Stainforth, Modelling Climate Change: Known
Unknowns, Open Democracy, 3 June 2005, http://
www.opendemocracy.net/globalization-climate_change_debate/2571.jsp; see also James M. Murphy et al.,
Quantification of Modelling Uncertainties in a Large
Ensemble of Climate Change Simulations, Nature 430,
12 August 2004, pp. 768-772.
54 George Myerson, Donna Haraway and GM Foods, Icon
Books, Cambridge, 1999, quoted in Hugh Gusterson,
Decoding the Debate on Frankenfood, in Betsy
Hartmann, Banu Subramaniam and Charles Zerner:Making Threats: Biofears and Environmental Anxieties,
Rowman and Littlefield, New Jersey, 2005.
55 Eugene Linden, op.cit. supra note 8.
56 Paul Brown, Islands in Peril Plead for Deal, The
Guardian, 24 November 2000, available at http://www.guardian.co.uk/climatechange/story/0,12374,782560,00.
html.
57 United Nations International Strategy for DisasterReduction, Natural Disasters and Sustainable
Development: Understanding the Links between
Development, Environment and Natural Disasters,
Background Paper No. 5, Geneva, 2002, p. 3,
http://www.un.org/jsummit/html/documents/backgrounddocs/unisdr%20report.pdf. See alsoChristian Aid, The Climate of Poverty: Facts, Fears and
Hope, Christian Aid, London, 2006.
58 Michael Northrop and David Sassoon, Catching upwith Fiduciaries, Environmental Finance supplement,
November 2005, p. S40.
59 Paul Harremos et al., The Precautionary Principle in
the 20th Century, Earthscan, London, 2002, pp. 210-218.
60 Brian Fagan, op. cit. supra note 35, pp. xiv-xvi.
61 The End of the Oil Age, The Economist, 23 October
2003.
62 IPCC, Third Assessment Report, Cambridge, 2001,
WMO/UNEP, cited in Joseph E. Aldy et al., Beyond
Kyoto: Advancing the International Effort againstClimate Change, Pew Center on Global Climate
Change, Arlington, VA, December 2003, p. 34.
63 Malte Meinshausen, On the Risk of Overshooting2o C., Exeter, 2 February 2005, http://www.
stabilisation2005.com/day2/Meinshausen.pdf.
64 Steffen Kalbekken and Nathan Rive, Why Delaying
Climate Action is a Gamble, Centre for International
Climate and Environmental Research, http://www.stabilisation2005.com/30_Steffen_Kallbekken.pdf.
65 Peter Singer, One World: The Ethics of Globalization,
Yale University Press, New Haven, 2002, p. 27.
66 Singer, op. cit. supra note 65.
67 Andrew Simms, The Ecological Debt Crisis, Tiempo55, April 2005, p. 19. Simms notes that a decade after
the UNFCCC was signed, countries including the US
, Australia, Canada and many European nations are
emitting more carbon dioxide per person than they
were at the time of the 1992 earth summit. . . . in less
than two days, a US family uses the equivalent in fossil
fuels per person as a family in Tanzania will depend onfor a whole year (op. cit., p. 18).
68 Duncan Austin et al., supra note 1.
69 Peter Singer, op. cit. supra note 65.
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introduction a new fossil fuel crisis 29
70 See Chapters 3 and 5, as well as such recent works as,
for example, George Monbiot, Heat: How to Stop thePlanet Burning, Allen Lane, London, 2006.
71 Stephen Kretzmann and Irfan Nooruddin, Drilling intoDebt: An Investigation into the Relationship between
Debt and Oil, Oil Change International, Washington,
2005.
72 For recent documentation, see, for example, the
website of Oilwatch, http://www.oilwatch.org and
Platform, Pumping Poverty: Britains Department
for International Development and theOil Industry,
Platform, London, 2005, http://www.carbonweb.
org/documents/pumping_poverty_web.pdf; and BrettonWoods Project, Chad-Cameroon Pipeline: Corruption
and Double Standards, London, 2004.
73 See http://cnews.canoe.ca/CNEWS/Science/2005/11/17/1311486-cp.htmltarget=3D_
blank>Dennis Bueckert: CNEWS, 17 November 2005.
74 MacDonald Stainsby, Canada, the US, and the TarSands, Z Magazine, 31 December 2005, http://www.
zmag.org/.
75 United Nations Framework Convention on Climate
Change, Conference of the Parties 11, Opening
Ceremonies: Speaking Notes for the Honourable
Stphane Dion, P.C., M.P., Minister of the Environment,
Montreal, 28 November 2005.
76 Paul Brown, Energy Effi ciency Targets Scrapped, The
Guardian, 18 July 2005.
77 House of Lords, Science and Technology Committee,
Renewable Energy: Practicalities, Fourth Report of
Session 2003-04, Volume I: Report, Stationery Offi ce,
London, 2004, p. 7.
78 Tony Blair, video address to the International
Conference on Renewable Energy, Bonn, 1-4 June,
2004.
79 Prime Ministers speech on climate change, 14
September 2004.
80 Tony Blair, Get Real on Climate Change, Observer
(London) 30 October 2005.
81 Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research,
Decarbonizing the UK: Energy for a Climate Conscious
Future, Exeter, 2005.
82 International Energy Agency, World Energy Outlook
2005, Paris, 2005, http://www.iea.org/Textbase/press/
pressdetail.asp?PRESS_REL_ID=163.
83 Darcy Frey, How Green Is BP?, New York Times
Magazine, 8 December 2002.
84 John Browne, Beyond Kyoto, Foreign Affairs, July/August 2004.
85 Shell Boss Fears for the Planet, BBC News, 17 June
2004.
86 World Business Council for Sustainable Development,
Sharpening the Focus for Action A BusinessPerspective, WBCSD, 2005, http://www.wbcsd.org/.
87 Jim Vallette et al., Wrong Turn from Rio: The WorldBanks Road to Climate Catastrophe, Institute for
Policy Studies, Washington, 2004, p. 5.
88 Ibid.
89 Jon Sohn et al., Mainstreaming Climate Change at the
Multilateral Development Banks, World Resources
Institute, Washington, 2005.
90 Ibid.
91 Jim Vallette and Steve Kretzmann, The Energy Tug of
War: The Winners and Losers of World Bank Fossil Fuel
Finance, Institute for Policy Studies, Washington, 2004,pp. 21-26.
92 See http://web.worldbank.org.
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Chpte 2
Me i the USAA hot hitoy o cbo tig
In which the surprising story is told o how corporations, academics, governments,United Nations agencies and environmentalists united around a neoliberal ormarket approach to climate change emanating rom North America.
I the pce o ew ece, ew om o globl ieqlity h
bptly become politiclly impott. A itilie mioity
h bee how to be oveig the eth bility to clee the t-
mophee o exce cbo othe geehoe ge. Awkwly,
thi ieqlity h te ot to be oe tht thete vivl itel
iclig, ltimtely, the vivl o the ich.
So whats to be done?
By whom? A bot wht? Difeet people ee the cii i ife-et wy.
Nothe elite ce oe et o poblem. How e they goig to e-
e powe pivilege ove globl goo they eve h to com-
pete o beoe? How e copotio ociety goig to cope with
the ew thet to oil-elle itil tcte? How bet might
copotio ie the wve o the climte cii, eekig ew o
iovtio eiig ew et? Wht efect will ifeet ki o
politicl ctio o climte chge hve o ccmltio ite-
egiol ecoomic competitio? How c the politicl et thte to ollow o om vio climte ite be eithe cotie
o exploite?
Sothe elite e cocee bot omewht ifeet qetio.
How c the climte cii be pevete om beig e yet -
othe exce o phig ie the log-thwte clim o Sothe
cotie to itilitio the wol welth? How might it
be tome ito oce o politicl levege? Wht e the bet
ttegie o elig with ticipte cttophe eomoly
icee ow o eviometl egee?A with evey ew itetiol evelopmet, ll ie e eyeig
ech othe ctioly, ceti how the ew coitio will fect
thei epective tig.
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32 development dialogue september 2006 carbon trading
Sounds like a amiliar story.
Ye. Bt i elite ttite e peictble, ome o the ie e ew.
Globl wmig it thet like tht o ooe epletio o eve
cle wepo. It ct be xe withot bo ocil politicl
chge. It implictio o copotio e my-ie, bt thet-
eig o the lget eegy compie the eegy-iteive pi-
vte ecto geelly. Het o ll, thi epot will ge, vet-
ig the wot efect o climte cho i likely to etil emoctic
mobilitio.
Fo globl elite, pticlly i the Noth, thee elitio e i-
evitbly he to tomch th the thet poe by globl wmig
itel. The ciece ctio-like pecte o mpt petom, col-
lpig giclte owe cotlie i eily tmpe, i the
elite imgitio, by the moe mi-wechig teo o le eegy
e, le cetlitio, lowe tpot, mot tggeig o ll
le ieqlity.
But isnt it also the case that political and business leaders are simply in denialabout the urgency o the climate crisis?
Nothe eviometlit ote like to y o. Bt the lt chp-
te h ggete, mot elite, with little help, c qite well img-
ie wht lie i toe i geehoe g level cotie to ie. Wht
they hve i clty with i cceptig politicl ctio tht i comme-
te with the poblem.
You mean they know whats happening, but lack the political will to do any-thing about it.
It ot elly lck o politicl will. I ct, thi chpte wil l oc-
met, my lee the pivte copotio techoccie
tht chel thei choice hve pl o politicl wil l o el-ig with the climte cii, jt they hve plety o politicl will o
tyig to t y othe cii to thei vtge. The poblem i tht
lmot ll o thi will i iecte tow techicl, iomtiol o
mket xe ette to hl o emoctic itittio.
Th US peiet Geoge W. Bh opely poclim the ee o
the US to bek it ictio to oil oly to popoe techologicl
xe ch eqettio o cbo om col-e powe plt,
bioel moe cle eegy.5 Si Dvi Kig, the UK gove-
met chie cietic vie, w tht climte chge i thetgete th teoim oly to embce ome o the me techol-
ogie, pl emiio tig, oltio.6
Technological fixes are
tempting.
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The 1992 Fmewok Covetio o Cli-mte Chge w ot egotite pimi-
ly to ece geehoe g emiio bt
the pt o wie bgi betwee
ich poo cotie, competig e-
egy iteet govemet ce with
gowig ecoomic poblem mkig i-
vetmet i the te iceigly moe
eetil bt lo moe i clt.1
Sonja Boehmer-Christiansen, 1994
It i moe ppopite to expli the -
te o the picipl elemet i climte
policy t both tiol itetiol
level i oe me tht wht i ivig
the leig tte m i thi eg
i the coce to cete ew ite o cpitl
ccmltio, the th oc o g-
gegte GDP gowth the impct o
climte policie o ch gowth.2
Karine Matthews and Matthew Paterson, 2005
Etblihig obt globl egime o -eig climte chge i compble
to the cetio o the itetiol te
egime e the Wol Te Ogi-
tio.3
Michael Zammit Cutajar,ex-Executive Secretary
o the United Nations FrameworkConvention on Climate Change, 2004
Acceptce o [the cbo tig povi-
io o the Kyoto Potocol] epeet
ticle o ith, ith i the ee mket
ith i the poce o globlitio. It et
o ieologicl tce.4
Mick Kelly, Climatic Research Unit,University o East Anglia, 2000
You talk about xes as i there was something wrong with them. But whatswrong with xes? Isnt that what we want to x the climate crisis?
The poblem i tht ch xe ot x. They pomie to elive
the wol om the wot ge o climte chge while levig
eveythig ele politic, commece o oth jt it i. Bt
i ct, the et o thi pecil epot will emotte, they o the
oppoite. They leve the coe o climte chge jt it i while ex-
cebtig the ieqlitie tht will hve to be ee i the ie
i to be toche o t ll.
Thi chpte will itoce thi bject by ketchig the hitoy o
the pocee tht tppe o cil itetiol ctio o climte
chge withi US-tyle mewok o eolibel policy. It wil l g-
get tht ew ecloe movemet h ome o thee ite-
like ttegie, o ltetive, ech o which itect with
ote eioce the othe.
What Is International Climate Policy About?
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34 development dialogue september 2006 carbon trading
The rst strategy wok to ehpe o ppe etig o the cli-mte poblem o tht pblic ectio to it will peet le o politi-
cl thet to copotio. The second strategy ppel to techologiclxe wy o bypig ebte ove oil el while helpig to
p iovtio tht c eve ew oce o pot.The third strat-egy ppel to mket x tht ece the popety ight o hevyNothe oil el e ove the wol cbo-bobig cpcity
while cetig ew oppotitie o copote pot thogh te.
The kowlege xOe cott theme o climte politic ove the lt 20 ye h bee
the ttempt to egiee pblic ectio to globl wmig o tht it
will peet ewe politicl thet to, moe oppotitie o,
copotio thei politicl cliet. Some copotio, ptic-
lly i the US, ty to ey tht hm e chgig the climte t
ll. Othe opely ckowlege the thet while tyig to eom-
lte it i wy tht beet them.
So the big companies are arguing among themselves about global warming?
Ye, bt o othe level the ifeet ie e wokig i imil
iectio. Fo exmple, moe egeive ctio i the oil i-
ty, wokig pblic opiio mily withi the US, my pomote the
view tht the climte it chgig o tht it itle to ty to o
ythig bot it. Othe ctio, wokig wolwie, my ge
tht thee i cietic bi o ctio bt e the ciece i wy
tht help them tee itetiol geemet tow techologicl
mket xe tht peeve the ieti o oil el-iteive i-
tie. The boe otcome i the me: etechmet o copo-
te powe ove cbo mp.
It sounds like the good cop bad cop technique o police interrogation. Its as i,like the proverbial bad cop, industry activists within the US go straight or thethroat o any international agreement on climate change while, like the goodcop, their colleagues outside the US deend such agreements, hoping to cajoleand squeeze them into giving them what they want. Have the people who denythat humans are causing the climate to change gone as ar as the pro-tobaccolobby used to go in rejecting the evidence?
Thee e cetily ome pllel with pevio ce o ppeio
o cietic eviece, bt the tgoit i the climte ebte emoe meo the ie moe complicte.
The helth efect o tobcco (ome o which wee otice e-
ly 1602),7 wee come thogh exteive eech i the 20th
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made in the usa a short history of carbon trading 35
cety, bt it w ot til 1970 tht the Sgeo Geel helth
wig h to be iplye o evey cigette pck ol i the US.
Dicio o climte chge ciece ollow omewht imil
bt mch moe complex twitig tjectoy. Althogh the t
expltio o how cbo ioxie c ct geehoe g i
lly ttibte to the get Sweih cietit Svte Ahei i
1896,8 the geehoe eth logy w e ely 1827 by
the Fech polymth Je-Bptite Foie9 the tem itel me-
tioe by US cietit Thom Chmbeli i 1906.10 I the 1950,
egl ie i level o cbo ioxie i the tmophee beg to be
ocmete, i the 1970 eie o tie by the US Dept-
met o Eegy icee coce bot poible globl wmig. I1975, cietit till weet e whethe the eth w wmig o
coolig, bt 10 ye lte, t the t mjo itetiol coeece
o the geehoe efect t Villch, Ati, climtologit we o
ie o globl me tempete which i gete th y i m
hitoy i the t hl o the 21t cety p to oe-mete ie
i e level.
At tht poit, with the help o ig-hgy eech boie,
lme US govemet move eegeticlly, i the wo o oe
obeve, to pt climte cietit bck i thei cge.11
How?
It woke to hit the cete o gvity o egge cietic iqiy
ito climte chge om iepeet cemic the Uite N-
tio Eviometl Pogmme to techicl beccie moe
cloely tie to govemet. Thee icle the Wol Meteoo-
logicl Ogitio the Itegovemetl Pel o Climte
Chge (IPCC), which w ome i 1988.12
The scientific
debate over
societys effects
on the climate hassome similarities
with past debates
over tobaccos
health effects.
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36 development dialogue september 2006 carbon trading
How did that help the US?
The Nothe-omite ciece beccy tht elte w i-
ceigly epeet o mltitiol eech ig13 w
bject to get el o US iece, with my US o cil -
ige to commet o evey t epot poce.14
Deigte the tk o poviig govemet iplomt with -
thoittive bt tie toy lie ecibig climte chge, the
IPCC tlly tee to homogeie cottig view ow-
ply cotovey. Ue pee om policy mke to y exctly
how b thig might get, it lo got ito the bio hbit o eo-
mltig ietemicie igoce cetitie o mee
ik o pobbilitie.15 Thi tce w el i givig ome policy
mke the mbe they wte ttctig moe eech -
ig, bt it lo ecoge the otio tht govemet copo-
tio col ely ctio til moe eitive elt wee i.
Thats hardly evidence that the IPCC was under the thumb o the US gov-ernment.
It wt. It impott ot to oveimpliy. Bt thee h lwy bee
ee i which the IPCC h helpe hpe climte poblem
oltio i wy tht mke them moe cceptble to powel gov-
emet copotio. A moe cocete exmple might be the
IPCC epoe to iplomt eqet to look ito the poibility o
toig cbo i tee oil wy o competig o cbo
ioxie emiio.
I suppose youre going to say that the IPCC was under a lot o pressure to giveits stamp o approval to the idea o trading trees or smoke, because thats whatNorthern countries needed in order to continue using ossil uels.
Well, it cetily te tht by 2000, whe the IPCC bmitte it377-pge epot o Land Use, Land Use Change and Forestry,16 co-tie ch the US, Jp, C, Atli, New Zel
Nowy h bee peig h o ome time to be llowe to cot
hge mot o the cbo oke p by thei oete l git
thei itil emiio. My Nothe cotie wee lo kee
o beig llowe to by polltio ight om cbo-bobig o-
ety poject bo.
So pehp it holt be complete pie tht the IPCC epot
povie the US it llie with jt the coclio they eee.The poblem w tht the epot h to bo oml t o
techicl igo i oe to o o.
Under pressure
from policy makersto say exactly how
bad things might
get, some scientists
got into the dubious
habit of reformulating
indeterminaciesand ignorance as
probabilities.
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What do you mean?
Deyig wig om the Itetiol Ititte o Applie Sy-
tem Alyi tht the IPCC wok to te col ot be coi-
ee eqte i hlig the cetitie elyig the cbo-
ccotig poblem th the Kyoto Potocol,17 the tho -
me withot eviece tht emovl by ik col veibly
compete o emiio by oce. Accoig to oe tho, the
l e pel eve coiee whethe the ecey cbo c-
cotig pocee wee ctlly poible o ot (ee Chpte 3).
Ate the epot cme ot, oe biem pel membe po-
clime tht thee wee o techicl poblem let with the ie o
tig emiio o tee.18
It qickly emege tht the pel h boght little o the vilble
kowlege elevt to oet cbo ccotig to be o it elib-
etio. Tho o elevt pee-eviewe eeece wee mi-
ig o eoettio, the hitoy o oety evelopmet poject,
pet eitce, oet commo egime, iveto behvio,
o o. While the pel obeve tht it i vey i clt, i ot impo-
ible to itigih chge i biotic cbo tock tht e iectly
hm-ice om thoe tht e ce by iiect tl
cto,19
it ile to w the logicl coclio tht it wol be veyi clt, i ot impoible, o cotie to clim ceit o chge
i oet oil.20 Ioiclly, it ell to o-cietit UN elegte
om Sothe cotie ch Ug, Key, Ti G-
teml to ie cietic qetio tht the expet pel h eglect-
e, bot oet t, oppotity cot o cbo oety, ccotig
o efect o oil el e, icot te, o oth.
Are you suggesting that somebody bribed the whole panel to come up with thepolitically correct response?
No, o coe ot.
Are you saying that this panel o dozens o reputable experts and business-people was somehow incompetent?
Not t ll. Thei techicl qlictio wee ote impeive.
You mean that someone intimidated them, then?
Nothig o ce. The wy iece wok e lly moe btle
moe powel. Mot o the tho o the epot wee litewith eviometl coltcie, mitem oety o ecoom-
ic ititte o cltie, ity ocitio, o cil gecie
govemet-e eech itittio. My w cbo ofet
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38 development dialogue september 2006 carbon trading
eech pomiig etepie o thei itittio. Thee-
qte hile om the Noth, eve moe woke t Nothe
itittio. Ove hl o the tho eito o the chpte exm-iig the techicl poibility o cotie climig cbo ceit o
itiol l oet ctivitie withi thei boe wee om
the US, C o Atli the thee cotie mot ctive i e-
mig ceit o wooe l.21
At the me time, the pel icle o epeettive o iigeo
people who live i o epe o oet, o o commitie iectly
fecte by plttio poject. It icle o epeettive o com-
mitie mge by oil-el polltio tht wol be licee by
oety ofet poject, who lo wol hve h icetive to iito bette ciece. To the mile-cl tl cietit ecoo-
mit who omite the pel, it w likely to be imply give tht
thee wee vt ege l i the Soth (bt ot the Noth) tht
col be tke ove o cbo poject withot l o oet be-
ig ege elewhee elt; tht poject evelopmet gecie
col o wht they pomie; tht it wol be ey to etemie
om itt o ce whethe poject ctlly ve cbo. The
pel membehip w lgely mimtche with the poblem it i-
vetigte.
So youre saying that o cial climate-mitigation science is contaminated withpolitics?
No. To y the ciece i cotmite wol imply tht it b-
oml ittio o ciece to be eble, cotie motivte
by politic.
Bt it ot boml. It voible. No wol c exit i which
policy c be ciece-le withot ciece beig policy-le t the
me time. No wol ch wol be eible. No wol it be e-ible to live i wol i which people believe ch wol w
poible o eible.
What are you suggesting?
Jt tht it wol be cotctive o cietit policy mke to
ce the elity tht moe ciece both cotitte i coti-
tte by pticl om o politic, Sheil Jof, Poeo o
Sciece Pblic Policy t Hv, pt it.22 It wol be helpl o
eveyoe imply to mit tht both the we cietit give theqetio they k the wy they wok e iece by ig,
by policy mke jolit qetio, by mket ieologie, by
cltl bckgo, by ie, by choolig ll the et.
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Why would that be helpul?
Ackowlegig exmiig thee lie o iece the th
climig tht goo ciece i omehow imme om them wol
give ll ie icetive to be moe we o wht ki o politic
i ivolve i y pticl eech cheme, wht the coe-
qece e. It col help eoc pblic ttetio o the impotce
o wokig to cete eviomet i which thee c be cietic
commitie tht k iteetig vie qetio o coce to
wie ge o iteet i emoctic ociety, e ot phe
too h ito tyig to povie impoible ecpe ote o ow
elite o iveigle ito e-e eech pogmme, mgig
mitke ct o el-eceptio. Sch commitie wol be bleto wok mog gop o pee who wol llow ecoge
them to qetio eceive wiom, to mke toble o eolibel
octie whe the cietic ee ie, to hve the choice ot
to we evey policy mke o jolit em with ove-
implictio.
But what would make that possible?
Pobbly the oly wy to mke pce o ciece le etie by
eolibelim i to wok git the omice o eolibelim i thewie ociety. Fieig the poblem by climig to be ble to coje
p objective ciece otie y ocil cotext it optio. A
ciece chol Simo Shckley college obeve, cietit my
well ccept politicitio o climte ciece give wy
to cope cotctively with ch politicl elity.23
I othe exmple o the itepeettio o politic climte
iqiy, poig om the US well-ogie ocil ciece
eech iteet elte i othoox ecoomit cptig mch
o the ge o the IPCC Wokig Gop III, chge with e-ig poible epoe to globl wmig.24 The hitoicl ocil
oot o climte chge wee igoe, wee goot eoce
o tcklig climte chge. Ite, techoct oect eegy e,
moelle the te globl ecoomy, collecte ocioecoomic t
eee o mgemet oltio toye with the ie o ig
cot-beet lyi to help mke eciio bot climte chge.