16/26/2013
Date June 20, 2013
William H. Bartley P.E.Engineering Consultant, Hartford Steam Boiler
Joy RohdeDirector of Market StrategyAtmospheric and Environmental Research
AER is a Verisk Analytics Company
Case Study: Leveraging Data on Wind, Storm Surge and Electrical Blackout in the Superstorm Sandy Aftermath
26/26/2013
“Our electrical infrastructure system is a marvel of engineering…for the last century”
- Dr. Massoud Amin, University of Minnesota
36/26/2013
Impact of Hurricane SandyImpact of Hurricane Sandy
• Second costliest Atlantic hurricane
• Damage near $18 billion
• Affected 24 states– Along coast from
Florida to Maine– Inland as far as
MichiganAnalysis by AER Respond™
46/26/2013
Electrical Blackout during SandyElectrical Blackout during Sandy
Business interruption losses are costly: ~One major insurer reported 30% of all Sandy insured losses were BIPeak outage of 8M customers was down to 650K within 8 days (DOE 20th Situation Report)
AER – compiled from DOE situation reports
56/26/2013
Statistics for Blackouts in the U.S.Statistics for Blackouts in the U.S.
66/26/2013
Number of Significant US Weather-Related Grid Disturbances is Rising
Number of Significant US Weather-Related Grid Disturbances is Rising
Source: Electric Grid Disruptions and Extreme Weather, 2012, Campbell
76/26/2013
Estimated Annual Costs Associated with Power Outage
Estimated Annual Costs Associated with Power Outage
>$100 Billion>$100 Billion
86/26/2013
Factors that Caused Blackouts During Sandy
Factors that Caused Blackouts During Sandy
• High Speed Winds‐Near hurricane gusts of up to 90 mph at
coast, but 50‐60 inland‐12 hour duration for gusts greater factor in loss
• Storm Surge‐responsible for more damage than wind‐Peak water levels of 14 ft100 year flood level at 11 ft.
• Aging Infrastructure
96/26/2013
Peak Wind Gusts - SandyPeak Wind Gusts - Sandy
106/26/2013
AER Respond™ for Hurricane:Preparing for and Responding to ImpactsAER Respond™ for Hurricane:Preparing for and Responding to Impacts• Forecast out to 5 days• 6 hourly updates of maximum sustained winds and
gusts, timings and durations of wind• Analyses of rainfall to track
flooding potential• Neighborhood-level detail
Analysis by AER Respond™Analysis by AER Respond™
116/26/2013
Fire and Storm Surge Damage:Satellite Imagery of Breezy Point, QueensFire and Storm Surge Damage:Satellite Imagery of Breezy Point, Queens
Pre‐Storm Post‐Storm
Archived imagery from Google Commercial satellite imagery sourced, enhanced, and analyzed by AER
Fire area(126 structures)
Storm surge evidenced by residual sand and water
126/26/2013
Flooding and Substation OutageFlooding and Substation Outage
136/26/2013
• Cause-of-loss data at the property-specific level used to diagnose claim occurrence, severity and coverage– Reliable estimates of when hazards started, stopped and peaked
New Forensic Weather and Satellite Technologies are Becoming Standard Resources in ClaimsNew Forensic Weather and Satellite Technologies are Becoming Standard Resources in Claims
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
‐1 4 9 14 19 24
Wind Gust (3‐sec mph) Rain Rate (cm/hr)Flood Depth (ft)
Time Sequence of Hazards at the Property LevelPost‐Event Satellite Image of Damages
146/26/2013
Transmission and Distribution FundamentalsTransmission and Distribution Fundamentals
156/26/2013
The continental U.S. is divided into three independent grids: Eastern, Western & Texas, with only a few interconnects. The continental U.S. is divided into three independent grids: Eastern, Western & Texas, with only a few interconnects.
166/26/2013
Power System OperatorsPower System Operators
Midwest (MISO)Midwest (MISO)
California (CAISO)California (CAISO)
New England (ISO-NE)New England (ISO-NE)
New York (NYISO)New York (NYISO)NorthwestNorthwest
PJMPJM
SoutheastSoutheastSouthwestSouthwest
SPPSPP
Texas (ERCOT)Texas (ERCOT)
176/26/2013
Utilities and System OperatorsUtilities and System Operators
186/26/2013
Definitions (North America)Definitions (North America)
• Transmission system:Transmission 250,000 to 800,000volts (or 800kV)
Moves large amounts of power across statesSub-Transmission 69,000v to 250,000v
Moves large amounts of power within a state
• Distribution systemDelivers power from transmission
to customer
196/26/2013
SubstationsSubstations
206/26/2013
216/26/2013
Typical DistributionSystemTypical DistributionSystem
15kV bus
feeder #1 #2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
= 15kV Primary feeders = 480 or 208 volt Secondary Network cables = Network limiter (fuse) = Network Transformer = pole top transformer
Main St Substation2 Transformers
100 MVA 138kV /15kV 9 feeders 15 kV ea.
(n + 2)
226/26/2013
A closer look at distribution networkA closer look at distribution network
208/120v secondary
15kV branches
transformers network network protector limiter
secondary customer connections "mains"
236/26/2013
Northern Queens NY DistributionNorthern Queens NY Distribution
#3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22
= 27kV Primary feeders = Network Transformer (1200 of them) =208/120v Secondary Network cables = Network limiter (fuse) = Customer connection
feeder #1 #2
North Queens AreaSubstation
5 Transformers 93MVA ea138kV / 27kV
22 feeders(n- 5)
246/26/2013
New York blackout Northern Queens 2006New York blackout Northern Queens 2006
256/26/2013
New York blackout Northern Queens 2006New York blackout Northern Queens 2006
266/26/2013
#3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22
= 27kV Primary feeders = Network Transformer (1200 of them)=208/120v Secondary Network cables
= Network limiter (fuse) = Customer connection
feeder #1 #2
138kV / 27kV
22 feeders(n- 5)
Details on Con Ed’s LIC networkDetails on Con Ed’s LIC network
• 285 Miles of 27kV feeder cable • 1700 Miles of low voltage cable• 1200 network transformers
• Loss of one or more 27kV feeders (black lines) does notaffect individual customers
• Loss of one or more network transformers does not affect individual customers
• Loss of a section of low voltage cable can affect a small segment of customers.
• The LIC Network is just one of 57 Con Ed area networks.
276/26/2013
Power Outage Analysisfrom satellite nighttime light imageryPower Outage Analysisfrom satellite nighttime light imagery
Alternating Pre/Post‐Storm ViewsAER Analysis:Areas of most significant outage
NYC & Long Island
NJShore
286/26/2013
Analysis covers affected counties in NJ, NY, and CT
1. Percent Outage Per Zip Code1. Percent Outage Per Zip Code
296/26/2013
2. Percent Outage per Location (zip 07733)2. Percent Outage per Location (zip 07733)
306/26/2013
Planning for the Next SandyPlanning for the Next Sandy
• Are your response resources sufficient?• 5 days before landfall, track expected winds• Begin to plan deployment of Catastrophe
Response teams• Understand the likelihood of damage to
heavily populated regions• Merge wind forecasts with PIF to estimate
potential losses
316/26/2013
Strategic Partnership between HSB and AERStrategic Partnership between HSB and AER
Provide cutting edge technology and services solution to comprehensively understand and assess blackout risk in the U.S., enabling clients to:
Assess financial risk to their business assets and liabilities from electrical outages
Plan for rapid response to minimize the effect on businesses and people
Optimize underwriting and portfolio risk management
Technology will be utilized by insurers and reinsurers, commercial and industrial firms, and other businesses
Alliance purposeCombine, enhance and commercialize the blackout risk data, technologies and expertise that HSB and AER built, calibrated and applied within our businesses over the past decade