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http://people.hofstra.edu/J_B_Bennington/research/long_island/LONG_ISLAND_GH_lg.jpg
Causes and Effects of Climate Change:
Impact on NYC & Long IslandMalcolm J. Bowman
School of Marine and Atmospheric Sciences
Stony Brook University2010 Climate Change Conference: the Science, the Legislation and ExpandingRole of Individuals
The Metropolitan, Glen Cove NY 20 March 2010
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http://images.google.com/imgres?imgurl=http://unsweducation.wikispaces.com/file/view/greenhouse_effect.png/83618879/greenhouse_effect.png&imgrefurl=http://unsweducation.wikispaces.com/gdh&usg=__lvk0iajXvAFNC05RN75YWpJKjtk=&h=996&w=1238&sz=622&hl=en&start=1&um=1&itbs=1&tbnid=SzPpCYrC-
VfQrM:&tbnh=121&tbnw=150&prev=/images%3Fq%3Dgreenhouse%2Beffect%26um%3D1%26hl%3Den%26sa%3DX%26tbs%3Disch:1
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Report published by the US Congress by the Senate Committee on Energy and Natural
Resources
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Ref: Church, 2007
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Change in annually averaged sea level at 23 geologically stable tide gauge sites with long-term records. The thickdark line is a three-year moving average of the instrumental records. This data indicates a sea level rise of~18.5 cm from 1900-2000. (Douglas, B.C. (1997). "Global Sea Rise: A Redetermination". Surveys in Geophysics 18:279292).
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http://library.fws.gov/pubs5/web_link/images/fig16b.jpg
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http://people.hofstra.edu/J_B_Bennington/research/long_island/LONG_ISLAND_GH_lg.jpg
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Sea level rise is accelerating
Source: New York City Panel on Climate Change, Climate RiskInformation, February 17, 2009
inches
Sea level rise by the 2080s
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Lidar image of business district of Manhattan showing seawall locations and
elevation (arrows). The imager is flying above the Hudson River looking east.
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http://www2.sunysuffolk.edu/mandias/38hurricane/track.html
The hurricane produced storm tidesof 14 to 18 feet across most of theLong Island and Connecticut coast,with 18 to 25 foot tides from New
London east to Cape Cod. Thedestructive power of the stormsurge was felt throughout thecoastal community. DowntownProvidence, Rhode Island wassubmerged under a storm tide ofnearly 20 feet while downtownWesthampton Beach, a mile inland,was under 8 feet of water!
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Courtesy Scott Mandia, Suffolk Community College
http://www2.sunysuffolk.edu/mandias/38hurricane/index.html
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A severe storm in November 1950
caused extensive flooding of LaGuardia airport (Bloomfield, 1999)
FDR Drive during theDecember 1992 noreaster(Bloomfield, 1999)
Ref: Bloomfield, J., M. Smith and N. Thompson, 1999. Hot
Nights in the City. Environmental Defense Fund, New York.
(Science fact)
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1992 Noreaster Flooding
Source: Metro New York Hurricane Transportation Study, 1995
1992 noreaster flooding of Hobokentrain station with seawater
A major shutdown of the New York City subway
and train system resulted
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http://stormy.msrc.sunysb.edu
Max. tide @ 1800 hr03-13-10
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Max storm surge @1800 hr 03-13-10
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Storm surge at the Battery 03-13-10 8:22 pm. The orange shed with the solar roof panel,in front of the pick-up truck and the Staten Island Ferry (all trips cancelled) is the
famous Battery tide gauge.
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The tide at the Battery continued to rise until 0030 EST 03-14-10.
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Flooded promenade, looking west toward Jersey City.
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1960s 1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s
(Gloria 85)Donna (60)
Climatological Analysis of NYC Surges
A minor and moderate surge at the
Battery would result in a coastal floodadvisory and warning, respectively, by theNWS during a high tide (mean highwater).
Minor: 0.60-1.00 m above MHW
Moderate: >1.00 m above MHW
Maximum daily
surge at theBattery, NYC (1959 -2007)
(92 Nor-easter)
Source: Colle & Buonaiuto, SBU
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Winds and sea level pressure, Hurricane Floyd, Sept 1999
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Storm surge (m), Hurricane Floyd, Sept 1999
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Worst case
scenario:hurricane
hits LI
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A hurricane striking New York is
inevitable
It is not a question ofifa major
hurricane will strike the New Yorkarea, but when...
Max Mayfield, Director of the Tropical PredictionCenter/National Hurricane Center, May 24, 2006
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New York is extremely
vulnerable to a hurricane Among 136 port cities around the world:
New York is among the top 10 in terms ofpopulation exposure
New York is second only to Miami interms of assets
Source: R.J. Nicholls et al., Ranking Port Cities withHigh Exposure and Vulnerability to Climate Extremes,OECD, November 2008
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A Catastrophic Storm Surge
~2,000,000 people & 740,000 households
~272,000 buildings 461 miles of major highways
88 emergency service facilities
80 healthcare facilities
Source: J. Friedman, NYC Emergency Management Office
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Is New York City, by default
planning to be flooded?
The city now has no mitigation
actions for coastal flooding,according to the NYC Natural HazardMitigation Plan (NYC Office of
Emergency Management, March2009), and none of 9 potentialactions to protect the region.
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Thames River Tidal Barrier, England, 1982
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Eastern Scheldt, the Netherlands, 1986
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Venice Lagoon Design, 2010
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http://www.oceansatlas.org/unatlas/-ATLAS-/IMAGES/HIGH/i241-1.jpg
Ring road and storm barrier system presently being constructed around StPetersburg, Russia.
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The 100-year flood at present mean sea level (Gornitz, 2001). In: Rosenzweig, C., and W.D. Solecki (eds.)2001. Climate change and a global city: the potential consequences of climate variability and change: Metro EastCoast. A report of the Columbia Earth Institute for the U.S. Global Change Research Program.
Proposed Barrier Locations
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The Narrows Barrier
Souce: Jansen & Dircke, Arcadis
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Gate Closed
Hydraulic Cylinder
East River Long Island Sound
Cut Off Wall
Source: M. Abrahams, PB
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Arthur Kill Barrier
Source: Murphy & Schoettle, CDM
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New York BightApex storm surgebarrier located atthe Sandy Hook Rockaway transect.The typical waterdepth across thetransect is ~ 20 ft,
except in the SandyHook and Ambrosenavigation channelswhere it is ~
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Barrier Flood Delay(years)
Start Constructiontime (years)
Completion
Providence 1938 23 1961 5 1966
New Bedford 1938 24 1962 4 1966
Stamford 1938 27 1965 4 1969
Hollandse Ijessel 1953 1 1954 4 1958
Eastern Scheldt 1953 14-26 1967-1979 71986
Maeslant 1953 36 1989 8 1997
Venice 1966 37 2003 8 (2011)
Barrier construction delays
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Comparative Barrier Costs
Barrier Dates Cost Exchangeratethen
$ Costthen
Costindex*
2006cost
EasternScheldt
1979-1986 3 billionguilders
3.32guilders/
$
$900 million 299/159 $1.7billion
ThamesRiver
1973-1984 600 million $1.328/ $800 million 299/153 $1.6billion
East River 1993 $1 billion --- $1 billion 299/190 $1.6
billion
TOTAL $5 billion
*U.S. Bureau of Reclamation Construction Cost Trends Composite Trend
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