Bonn Contact Point Meeting June 2011
CCAFS: Theme 1 overview
Andy JarvisTheme 1 Leader
2 • 3/21/11
Problems/Opportunities
Problem: 60-70% more food to support a growing population….
…..under an uncertain and potentially unfriendly climate
Countries and communities asking: What does climate change imply, what can I do to adapt, how much will it cost, how do I implement it?
Opportunity: Massive amount of existing knowledge on technologies and practices for production, and increasing food system governance from local to global level
3 • 3/21/11
0 0.25 0.50 0.75 1
Exacerbating the yield gap
From Licker et al, 2010
Climate change will likely pose additional difficulties for resource-poor farmers (e.g., in Africa), thereby increasing the yield gap
4 • 3/21/11
Progressive Adaptation
THE VISION
To adapt farming systems, we need to:
• Close the production gap by effectively using technologies, practices and policies
• Increase the bar: develop new ways to increase food production potential
• Enable policies and institutions, from the farm to national level
5 • 3/21/11
Input Providers Consumer
Other Crops
Structural Adaptation
Action: Common Code for the Coffee Community (C4) introduces an add-on climate module that would indicate when coffee producers have adapted their production system to a changing climate.
Result: Retailers agree to buy only C4-certified “climate-proofed” coffee. Accordingly, changes occur down the coffee supply chain, with collaborative efforts to create a more adaptive structure.
Adaptive Adjustments
Action:a) Shadingb) Changing varietalsc) Changing inputs
Result: Improved risk management at the farm level, allowing for long-term adaption.
Wholesale/Retail
C4
Coffee FederationCoffee Producers
a) Shading
6 • 3/21/11
Coffee Producers
Transformational Adaptation
Action: Migrate to keep farmingChange farming systems (agricultural)Switch livelihood sources (non-agricultural)
Result: Long-term adaptation, but requires significant up-front transition costs.
7 • 3/21/11
Objective One: Adapted farming systems via integrated technologies, practices, and policies
Objective Two: Breeding strategies to address abiotic and biotic stresses induced by future climatesObjective Three: Identification, conservation, and deployment of species and genetic diversity
Adaptation to progressive climate change · 1
8 • 3/21/11
Adaptation to progressive climate change · 1
1.1
• Holistic testing of farming options (benchmark sites)
• Agricultural knowledge transfer
• Analysis of enabling policies and instit. mechanisms
Adapted farming systems
1.2
• Climate-proofed global and national breeding strategies
• Regional fora to discuss and set priorities
Breeding strategies for
climate stresses
1.3
• Knowledge for better use of germplasm for adaptation
• On-farm use of diversity to adapt
• Policies of access for benefit sharing
Species and genetic diversity
9 • 3/21/11
Approaches and impact pathways
Data and evidence based strategies and solutions
Climate scienceAgricultural modelling
Observation using climate variabilityAnalysis of community processes and responses, incl. social differentiation
Village to national levelSetting priorities
Develo
pm
en
t p
art
ners
, Pri
vate
Sect
or,
Polic
y
Outr
each
10 • 3/21/11
Adaptation to progressive climate change · 1
>> Spotlight on: Two Degrees Up
Short climate change photofilms highlighting the impact of a two degree rise in temperature on smallholder agriculture
What CCAFS output?
11 • 3/21/11
Adaptation to progressive climate change · 1
>> Spotlight on: Farms of the future
The climate analogue tool identifies the range of places whose current climates correspond to the future of a chosen locality
What CCAFS output?
Choice of sites for cross-site farmer visits and participatory crop and livestock trials
Why is it useful?
12 • 3/21/11 Karnal (India)
• Rainy season from June to September
13 • 3/21/11Farmer exchanges for adaptation knowledge management
14 • 3/21/11
15 • 3/21/11
TPE analysis
Future systems
Knowledge &
intuition
Ideotype concept
Gene/alleledisc
overy
Intelligent
phenotyping
designs
Marker develop
mt.
Modeling
Marker validatio
n,Integrati
on,G x E x M
Molecular
breeding
Intelligent choice
of populatio
ns
Creative thinking & wild bets Forcing by target environment
CHANGE
Con-vention
al breedin
g
Application
Methodology
Search
Function, regulatio
n,phénotyp
e
Strategic choices
DiversityPanels
BiparentalPops
CCAFS (CRP7) activity 1.2:
Breeding strategies & ideotypes for 2030 horizon
16 • 3/21/11
>> Multi-site agricultural trial database(agtrial.org)
20,000+ maize trials in 123 research sites
Effect of +1ºC warming on yield
Sites with >23ºC would suffer even if optimally managed
More than 20% loss in sites with >20ºC, under drought
Lobell et al. 2011
17 • 3/21/11
• Over 3,000 trials• 16 crops• 20 countries• > 15 international and national institutions
New data
>> Multi-site agricultural trial database(agtrials.org)
18 • 3/21/11
Adaptation to progressive climate change · 1
>> Spotlight on: The AMKN Platform
It links farmers’ realities on the ground with promising scientific research outputs, to inspire new ideas and highlight current challenge.
Why is it useful?
The Climate Change Adaptation and Mitigation Knowledge Network platform is a portal for accessing and sharing agricultural A&M knowledge.
What CCAFS output?
19 • 3/21/11
>> 5 easy things you can do!
•Share your climate change stories with us and post on the AMKN•Join the trial data sharing community (agtrials.org) and work with us on GxE analyses for your crops•Work with us on objective 1.2 in developing breeding strategies for your centre crop•Tell us your adaptation technologies and practices and work with us in evaluating their future using analogues•Share your climate data through ccafs-climate.org
20 • 3/21/11
Better integrating center activities
• Theme activities are ~90% within centres!
• Share your success stories, give me slides (with your logo!)
• Use theme-lead science products – it is all totally public
• Use other centre science products in your research
• Develop cross-centre program activities• Get on the bus!
21 • 3/21/11
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