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Chart Discussion: Fri-18-December-2015 (Harvey Stern)
Chart Discussion: Fri 18-Dec-2015
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Chart Discussion: Fri-18-December-2015 (Harvey Stern)
Leading to Christmas Day … GFS Model
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Chart Discussion: Fri-18-December-2015 (Harvey Stern)
Leading to Christmas Day … ECMWF Model
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Seasonal Outlook
Part One
Chart Discussion: Fri 18-Dec-2015
Chart Discussion: Fri-18-December-2015 (Harvey Stern)
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Sea Surface Temperature AnomaliesThe 2015 El Niño event is near its peak. Some El Niño indicators are now
showing signs of easing. The El Niño is likely to persist well into 2016.
Chart Discussion: Fri-18-December-2015 (Harvey Stern)
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Verification (1989 to 2015) of the accuracy of the BoM’s
Seasonal Climate Outlooks [Rainfall]
QLD
NSW
VIC
NT
SA
WA
TAS
ALL STATES
Chart Discussion: Fri-18-December-2015 (Harvey Stern)
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Seasonal Outlook Jan ‘15 - Mar ‘16
Chart Discussion: Fri-18-December-2015 (Harvey Stern)
Seasonal Outlook for Melbourne
… next 30 Days (statistically-based)
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Chart Discussion: Fri-18-December-2015 (Harvey Stern)
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Last Week
Part Two
Chart Discussion: Fri-18-December-2015 (Harvey Stern)
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MSL Analyses : Sat-12-Dec to Thu-17-Dec
Chart Discussion: Fri-18-December-2015 (Harvey Stern)
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Southern Hemisphere: Thu-17-Dec-2015
Chart Discussion: Fri-18-December-2015 (Harvey Stern)
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MSL Analysis/Sat Image: Thu-17-Dec-2015
http://www.bom.gov.au
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_update/gsstanim.gif
Chart Discussion: Fri-18-December-2015 (Harvey Stern)
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ECMWFUS GFS
ACCESS
Verifying Model ForecastsMSL Pressure: Thu 17-Dec-2015
Chart Discussion: Fri-18-December-2015 (Harvey Stern)
OBSERVED ACCESS
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MSL Analysis/Sat Image: Fri-18-Dec-2015
Chart Discussion: Fri-18-December-2015 (Harvey Stern)
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Next Week
Part Three
Chart Discussion: Fri-18-December-2015 (Harvey Stern)
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Verifying Melbourne Forecasts[Updated to 31-Aug-2015]
Max Temp
Based upon: QJRMS Stern & Davidson (2015)
Rainfall Amount
Peaks in skill coincide with
successful prediction of a group
of extreme events (2010/11: Rain;
2013/14: Max Temp)
Chart Discussion: Fri-18-December-2015 (Harvey Stern)
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Jet Streams: Fri 18-Dec-2015
Chart Discussion: Fri-18-Dedember-2015 (Harvey Stern)
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MSL Pressure: Fri 18-Dec-2015
Chart Discussion: Fri-18-December-2015 (Harvey Stern)
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Jet Streams: Sat 19-Dec-2015
Chart Discussion: Fri-18-December-2015 (Harvey Stern)
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MSL Pressure: Sat 19-Dec-2015
Chart Discussion: Fri-18-December-2015 (Harvey Stern)
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Jet Streams: Sun 20-Dec-2015
Chart Discussion: Fri-18-December-2015 (Harvey Stern)
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MSL Pressure: Sun 20-Dec-2015
Chart Discussion: Fri-18-December-2015 (Harvey Stern)
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Jet Streams: Mon 21-Dec-2015
Chart Discussion: Fri-18-December-2015 (Harvey Stern)
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MSL Pressure: Mon 21-Dec-2015
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Jet Streams: Tue 22-Dec-2015
Chart Discussion: Fri-18-December-2015 (Harvey Stern)
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MSL Pressure: Tue 22-Dec-2015
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Jet Streams: Wed 23-Dec-2015
Chart Discussion: Fri-18-December-2015 (Harvey Stern)
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MSL Pressure: Wed 23-Dec-2015
Chart Discussion: Fri-18-December-2015 (Harvey Stern)
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MSL Pressure: Thu 24-Dec-2015
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MSL Pressure: Fri 25-Dec-2015
Chart Discussion: Fri-18-December-2015 (Harvey Stern)
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ECMWFUS GFS
ACCESS
Model ForecastsMSL Pressure: Fri 25-Dec-2015
Chart Discussion: Fri-18-December-2015 (Harvey Stern)
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MSL Pressure: Sat 26-Dec-2015
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MSL Pressure: Sun 27-Dec-2015
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Chart Discussion: Fri 18-Dec-2015
Thank You
http://www.weather-climate.com/ChartDiscussion18Dec2015.pdf
Chart Discussion: Fri-18-December-2015 (Harvey Stern)